(30.17 ABILITY _ probability of getting 15 as the sum of the numbers if there is 4 on the first die. 2 <+ Total number of ways =1x 6x 6 = 36 | 36 [ ‘There are two favourable elementary events viz.(4,6,5), (4.5.6 1 3! EXERCISE 30.1 (evens) | Ten cards numbered 1 through 10 are placed in a box, mixed up thoroughly and then one card is drawn randomly. If it is known that the number on the drawn card is more than 3, what is the probability that it is an even number? |. Assume that each child born is equally likely to be a boy or a girl, Ifa family has two children, what is the conditional probability that both are girls given that (i) the youngest isa gitl (ii) at least one isa girl? [NCERT] 3, Given that the two numbers appearing on throwing two dice are different. Find the probability of the event ‘the sum of numbers on the dice is 4’. a. ncoin is tossed three times, if head occurs on first two tosses, find the probability of getting head on third toss. Adie is thrown three times, find the probability that 4 appears on the third toss ifitis given that 6 and 5 appear respectively on first two tosses: 6 Compute P(A/B), if P(B) = 05and P(A MB) = 0.32 IEP (A) = 0A, P(B) = 0.3and P(B/A) = 05, find P (A -.B)and P(A/B). 1 1 BU IFA and B are two events such that P(A) = 3, P(B) = anal Gig a, ead P(A/B) and P (B/A). 9, A couple has two children. Find the probability that both the children are (i) males, if itis known that at least one of the children is male. (ii) females, if it is known that the elder child isa female. [CBSE 2010] Pais ANSWERS: 1 1 1 4 4. the 545 2 oe 16 since 9. 4 i} 6 35 62 a 2 __ HINTS TO NCERT & SELECTED PROBLEMS 4. The sample space associated to the given random experiment is given by 1, 2, 3, 4,5, 6,7, 8, 10} Consider the following events f Wieeniimber on the card drawn ia 0g in is greater than 3 B _ Number on the card drawn i BRUNET AN 4 Required probability = P(A/B) = y(p) 7 12,4, 6, 8,101 14,5, 6,7, 8, 9, 10} Ro virielevents a = a i = {GyGo) B = (BiG2r Clearly, § = (BjPa, BiG2/ CaP2, GiCal A 6Gal C= (ByG>, G1Ba, OC) az30.22 1 and, P(Ay/Ay An Ant) = Fey Substituting these values in (i), we get Po = ny ed Ww i bility = @—* poop * Bae gait Required probability mc, * B= 2¢, BAC, Tc," 2c, (ny)? mG ee = Giy(@n—T) , (2n=2) An 3) MELEE rs! (2n)! 2G, 2 2 2 ee EXERCISE 30.2 LEVEL-1 1, From a pack of 52 cards, two are drawn one by one without replacement. Find the probability that both of them are kings. i av >, Froma pack of 52 cards, 4 are drawn one by one without replacement. Find the probability that all are aces (or, kings). INCERT EXEMPLAR] Find the chance of drawing 2 white balls in succession from a bag containing 5 red and 7 white balls, the ball first drawn not being replaced. A bag contains 25 tickets, numbered from 1 to 25. A ticket is drawn and then another ticket is drawn without replacement. Find the probability that both tickets will show even numbers. . From a deck of cards, three cards are drawn on by one without replacement. Find the probability that each time it is a card of spade. Two cards are drawn without replacement from a pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that (i) both are kings (ii) the first is a king and the second is an ace (iii) the first is a heart and second is red. 7. A bag contains 20 tickets, numbered from 1 to 20. Two tickets are drawn without replacement. What is the probability that the first ticket has an even number and the second an odd number. g, Anum contains 3 white, 4 red and 5 black balls. Two balls are drawn one by one without replacement. What is the probability that at least one ball is black? 9, A bag contains 5 white, 7 red and 3 black balls. If three balls are drawn one by one without replacement, find the probability that none is red. ‘(CBSE 2002€ 10. A card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards and then a second card is drawn. Find the probability that the first card is a heart and the second card is a diamond if the first card is not replaced. i. Anum contains 10 black and 5 white balls. Two balls are drawn from the urn one after the other without replacement. What is the probability that both drawn balls are black? {NCERT] 12. Three cards are drawn successively, without replacement from a pack of 52 well shuffled cards. What is the probability that first two cards are kings and third card drawn is an ace? {NCERT] 15. A box of oranges is inspected by examining three randomly selected oranges drawn without replacement. If all the three oranges are good, the box is approved for sale otherwise it is rejected. Find the probability that a box containing 15 oranges out of which 12are good and 3 are bad ones will be approved for sale, 14, A bag contains 4 white, 7 black and 5 red balls. Three balls are drawn one after the other without replacement. Find the probability that the balls drawn are white, black and red respectively. 2and, MATHEMATICS-XII Sree Hence, Required probability =P (A) Baa Bea EXERCISE 30.3 pos Be 2 x - ° 10. nic a B 13, LEVEL-1 2 9 4 =f == and P(A MB) =, find P (A/B). IEP (A) =, P(B) == and P(A MB) = 75 find P (A/B) fA and Bare events such that P (A) = 06, P (B) =0.3and P (A B) = 02, find P (A/B)and P(B/A). If A and Bare two events such that P (A © B) = 0.32 and P (B) = 05, find P (A/B). If P(A) =04, P (B) =08, P (B/A) = 0.6. Find P (A/B) and P(A UB). If A and Bare two events such that /3, P (B) =1/4and P (A UB) =5/12, find P (A/B) and P (B/A). P(B) =3 and P(A UB) =7,, find P (AB), P(A/B), P(B/A) 9 Jan 13 (iv) P(A)= > P(B) =5 and P (AB) = ; , find P(A/B), P(B/A), P(A/B) and P(A/B). 11’ (ii) P(Ay=2, P(B)= dP (AB) ==, find P(A/B) INCERT EXEMPLAR] If A and Bare two events such that 2 P (A) = P (B) = 3 and P (A/B) == find P(A UB). 6 5 % IfP(A) =, P(B) =+ and P(A UB) ==", find (i) P(AMB) (ii) P(A/B) (iii) P (B/A) A coin is tossed three times. Find P (A/B) in each of the following: (i) A=Heads on third toss, B = Heads on first two tosses (ii) A = Atleast two heads, B = At most two heads (iii) A = At most two tails, B = At least one tail. Two coins are tossed once. Find P (A/B) in each of the following: (i) A=Tail appears on one coin, B = One coin shows head. (ii) A =No tail appears, B = No head appears. A die is thrown three times. Find P (A/B) and P (B/A), if A=4 appears on the third toss, B= 6 and 5 appear respectively on first two tosses. Mother, father and son line up at random for a family picture. If A and B are two events given by A =Son on one end, B = Father in the middle, find P (A/B) and P (B/A). ‘A dice is thrown twice and the sum of the numbers appearing is observed to be 6, What is the conditional probability that the number 4 has appeared at least once? ‘Two dice are thrown. Find the probability that the numbers appeared has the sum &, if itis known that the second die always exhibits 4. a vh Ag ee any arePROBABILITY oh 14. A pair of dice is thrown. Find the probability of getting 7 as the sum, if it is known that the second die always exhibits an odd number. 15. A pair of dice is thrown. Find the probability of getting 7 as the sum if it is known that the second die always exhibits a prime number. 16. A die is rolled. If the outcome is an odd number, what is the probability that it is prime? 17. A pair of dice is thrown. Find the probability of getting the sum 8 or more, if 4 appears on the first die. 18, Find the probability that the sum of the numbers showing on two dice is 8, given that at least one die does not show five. 19. Twonumbers are selected at random from integers 1 through 9. If the sum is even, find the probability that both the numbers are odd. 20. A die is thrown twice and the sum of the numbers appearing is observed to be 8. Whatis the conditional probability that the number 5 has appeared at least once? [CBSE 2003] 21. Two dice are thrown and it is known that the first die shows a 6. Find the probability that the sum of the numbers showing on two dice is 7. 22. A pair of dice is thrown. Let E be the event that the sum is greater than or equal to 10 and F be the event “5 appears on the first-die”, Find P (E/F).If Fis the event “5 appears on at least one die”, find P (E/F). 23. The probability that a student selected at random from a class will pass in Mathematics is 4/5, and the probability that he/she passes in Mathematics and Computer Science is 1/2. Whatis the probability that he/she will pass in Computer Science if itis known that he/she has passed in Mathematics? 24. The probability that a certain person will buy a shirt is 0.2, the probability that he will buy a trouser is 0.3, and the probability that he will buy a shirt given that he buys a trouser is 0.4. Find the probability that he will buy both a shirt and a trouser. Find also the probability that he will buy a trouser given that he buys a shirt. 25, Ina school there are 1000 students, out of which 430 are girls. It is known that out of 430, 10% of the girls study in class XII. What is the probability that a student chosen randomly studies in class XII given that the chosen student is a girl? Ten cards numbered 1 through 10 are placed in a box, mixed up thoroughly and then one 26. card is drawn randomly. If it is known that the number on the drawn card is more than 3, what is the probability that it is an even number? ; nee A that each born child is equally likely to be a boy or a girl. If a family has two : children, what is the constitutional probability that both are girls? Given that (i) the ‘youngest isa girl (ii) atleast oneis girl. [CBSE 2014] ANSWERS A 7 2 3.0.64 4. 0.3, 0.96 9 ce 5 Spl lybeeaelt Oe 424 (ii) 3 Oo paa's “2 i MEW. Oniinst dito 24 Gi) 2 «iy 4 8.) 5 i) 5 ai) 5 9.) 1) : 1 na 1 12, 4 13.2 10.5 ,—— 11.1,5 5 6’ 36 2 1 45.2 16.5 4.5 6 3 18, 2 19.2 SO ‘3B ‘ os ate 23.2. 24. 012, 0.6 "70 7 890.53 B 3 times in 4 shots, and C 2 times in 3 sho! PLE 39 A can hit a tazget 4 times in 5 shots, B,C all may hit (ii) B,C may hit and A may not. HO ofA, Band C will hit the target of them will hit the target. ‘der the following events: : ys the target, F = Bhits the target, and G =C hits the target 4 3 Riel (© ag POG and P(G) = 3 [CBSE 2005] ICBSE 2005) P(A, B,C all may hit) P(EAE OG) = P(E) P(F) P(G) A esSran Qh tee i) Required probabilit F, Gare independent events] Bld OsmMB ii) Required probability = P (B, C may hit and A may not) P(EAFAG) = P(E) P(F) PG) [> E, F, Gare independent events] 4) Sd wed =|1-=|x—x== ( 5) 43 10 Required probabil (Any two of A, Band C will hit the target) P(EQF AG) UE AF AG) U(ENF AG) = P(EQF AG) + P(E AE AG) + P(ENF AG) = P(E) P(F) P(G) + P(E) P(F) P(G) P(G) + P(E) P(F) P(G) 4.3.1.1 3 2:0 = 443,1,1,3, 2) 2 oe 54°35 4 3 5 4) oan ¥) Required probability = P (None of A, B and C will hit the target) 1.1 en = P(EMF mG) = P(E) P(F)P@ =ixtxd at YP) P@) = 5xaxn =a A combination lock on a suitcase has 3 wheels each labelled with nine digits from 1 to 9. If ning combination is a particular sequence of three digits with no repeats, what is the probability ofa ‘rson guessing the right combination? DLUTION Let Aj, i=1, 2, 3 be the event that the digit on i" wheel occupies the correct ssition. Then, Required probability = P (Ay 7 A, 0 A3) i = P (Aj) P(Ap/Aj) P (A3/A1 9 AQ) = 1 Ede 9 Sa EVE! Acoinis tossed thrice and all the eight outcomes are assumed equally likely. In which of the following cases are the following events A and Bare independent? he first throw results in head, B = the last throw results in tail he number of heads is odd, B= the number of tails is odd (iii) A = the number of heads is two, B= the last throw results in head oa the occurrence of the number 4 on the first die is Prove that in throwing a pair of dice, e of 5 on the second die. independent of the occurre‘which of the following cases are the events A and (i) A= the card drawn is a king or queen, B= (ii) A= the card drawn is black, Pee eee iii) B= the card drawn isa spade, B= thecard wn inanace z © hadnt teinn it herree dt : Check the apenas a ne oo omy esha are tossed ina row, Check the independence of (i) A and B (ii) Band C and (iii) C and A 5. IfA and B be two events such that P (A) =1/4, P (B) =1/3and P(A VB) =1/2, show that A and Bare independent events lent events A and B such that P (A) = 03 and P (B) = 0.6. Find * Given two independ 3 @ P(AnB (ii) P(A MB) (iii) P(A AB) e {CBSE 2020} fiv) P(A mB) (v) P(AUB) (vi) P(A/B) (vil) P (B/A) 7. IP (not B) = 0.65, P (AUB 85, and A and Bare independent events, then find P (A), ® I Aand Bare two independent events such that P(A a B)=2/15and P(A 4B) =1/6, then find P (B), {CBSE 2015] % Aand Bare two independent events. The Probability that A and B occur is 1/6 and the Probability that neither of them occurs is 1/3. Find the Probability of occurrence of two events 10. IfA and B are two independent events such that P(A B) = 0.60and P(A) = 0.2, find P (B), 11. A dieis tossed twice. Find the Probability of getting a number greater than 3 on each toss. ; problem is 2/3 and the probability that Bcan solve 12. Given the probability that A can sol ability that none of the two will be able to solve the the same problem is 3/5. Find the pro 13; An unbiased die is tossed twice. Find the probability of getting 4, 5, or 60n the first toss and 1,2, 3 or 4 on the second toss, 14 A bag contains 3 red and 2 black balls. One ball is drawn from it at random. Its colour is Noted and then it is put back in the bag. A second draw is made and the same procedure is arty ated. Find the probability of drawing (i) two red balls, (ii) two black balls, (ili) first red and second black ball 15. Three cards are drawn with replacement from a well shuffled pack of cards, Find the Probability that the cards drawn are king, queen and jack. 16. An article manufactured by a company consists of ‘wo parts X and Y. In the Process of fiaafecture of the part X, 9 out of 100 parts {nay be defective. Similarly, 5 outof 100 are ikely to be defective in the manufacthre of art Y. Calculate th ility that assembled product will not be defective - ee ae 17. The probability that A hits a target is 1/3 and the probabilit that Bhits it, i isthe probability that the target will be hit, if each ae A at shoots a ieee 18. An anti-aircraft gun can take a maximum of 4 shots at an enemy in from it. The probabilities of hitting the plane at the first, second, third ghd gece ared,03, 0.2 and 0.1 respectively. What is the Probability that the gun hits the plane? 19. The odds against a certain event are 5 to 2 and the Odds in favour of another event, independent to the former are 6 to 5, Find the Probability that (i) at least One of the events will occur, and (ii) none of the events will occur, 20. A die is thrown thrice. Find the Probability of, getting an odd number at least once. 21. Two balls are drawn at random with sepyacement from a box containing 10 black and 8 red balls. Find the probability that (i) both ballls are red, (ii) first ball is black and second is ted, (iii) one of them is black and other is red, INCERT] 2 Find tac lain 4rd anc 7 black balls. Two balls are drawn at rndom with lacement. Find the probability of getting (i) 2red balls, (i) 2 bingy balls, Gi) ones black ball.el B. 7. 0.77 >. Required probabi The probabilities of two students A and B coming to the school in time are > and 2 respectively Assuming that the events, ‘A coming in time’ and 'B coming in time’ are lependent, find the probability of only one of them coming to the school in time. Write at least one advantage of coming to school in time. {CBSE 2013] Two dice are thrown together and the total score is noted. The event E, Fand Gare ‘a total 4”, “a total of 9 or more“, and “a total di isible by 5”, respectively. Calculate P(E), P(F)and P(G) and decide which pairs of events, ifany, are independent. INCERT EXEMPLAR] nts such that P(A) = p; and P(B) = p>. Describe in words Let A and Bbe two independent eve: the events whose probabilities are: (i) Pipe (i) -py) pp (iti) 1-1 -py) 1p) (iv) pi +P2 =2p1P2 INCERT EXEMPLAR] What is the probability [CBSE 2020} _.. ANSWERS and (iii) 4. (i) independent —_ (ii) dependent (ii) 0.12 (iii) 0.42 (iv) 028 (v) 0.72 (vi) 03 (vii) 06 1 i 1 P(A) ==, P(B) =~ ==, P(B) =~ 9. P(A) 3/ P(B) Ce 2 P(B) 3 The probability of finding a green signal on a busy cros X is 30%. Pacis 8) ignal on a busy crossing X is a green signal on X on two consecutive days out of three? (i) (ii) (iii) independent 6 (i) 0.18 1 4 5 1 05 A : 1. 3 12, 5 13 = :. 5 (ii) 25 15. 297, 2 16. ier : 0.696 BOF WF 20% 0 Gi cin? 22. x i) Gi) 2 95, % Pe) =, P(r) = 2-, P(G) = 2, No pair is independent 12 18 36 (i) Aand Boccur (ii) Adoesnotoccur, but Boccurs (iii) Atleast one of A and Boccurs (iv) Exactly one of A and B occurs. 26 oa HINTS TO NCERT & SELECTED PROBLEMS Here, n(S) = 36, A = ((4,1), 4,2),(4,3), 4,4), 4,5), (4, 6) : 5), (3,5), (4,5), 5,5), 6,5)} and B= {(1,5), (2,5), (3,5), (4,5), 6, S B= ((4,5)}. Now, show that P (A 9 B) =P (A) P(B) pace) aa 1 pp = A = dL andP(Ang = 1 4s 52,3) 52 So, Aand Bare independent events. (A) P (B) B= Part Y is not defective. (iii) We have, P (A) = = Clearly, P (ANB) = P (A)P (B).5 Required probability = P(A _™B)=P( Let, A =Part X is not defective, cad probability =P (4 9B) =P (4) PB j00 * 100 AUB) =1-P(A)P(B) Required ility = P ( ‘8. The gun hits the plane, if it hits hee is ate: on fag Required probability = -(1-0: As z Let A and Bbe the events. Then, P(A) = 575 é =1-P(A) PB) 4 () Required probability = P(A UB)Similarly, . Probability of winning of A in 7th throw =| : e Hence, : Probably of winingot a= 14(8)'-14(8).1, LS alae 6)" 6 \6) sore . Veer 1-6/6> 91 B wins if he gets a ‘six’ in 2nd throw or 5th throw or 8th throw -. Probability of winni oro = (2)24(8) 24(8f 2 os “NeJe \6) 6 (6) ene es EXERCISE 30.5 LEVEL-+1 1, A bag contains 6 black and 3 white balls. Another bag contains 5 black and 4 white balls. If one ball is drawn from each bag, find the probability that these two balls are of the same colour. A bag contains 3 red and 5 black ballls and a second bag contains 6 red and 4 black balls. A ball is drawn from each bag. Find the probability that one is red and the other is black. 3. Two balls are drawn at random with replacement from a box. containing 10 black and 8 red balls. Find the probability that (i) both the balls are red. (i) first bal is black and second is red, (iii) one of them is black and other is red, [CBSE 2005] Two cards are drawn successively without replacement from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards. Find the probability of exactly one ace, 5. A speaks truth in 75% and Bin 80% of the cases. In what Percentage of cases are likely to cateatel each other in narrating the same incident? oo .. Kamal and Monica appeared for an interview for two vacancies, The probability of Kamal’s ion is 1/3 and that of Monika’s selection is 1/5. Find the probébili that selection is 1/: Y PI ity (i) both of them will be selected (ii) none of them will be selected (iii) at least one of them will be selected (iv) only one of them will be selected, x > co re| PROBABILITY 30.69 L & 20, A bag contains 3 white, 4 red and 5 black balls. Two balls are drawn one after the other, without replacement. What is the probability that one is white and the other is black? A bag contains 8 red and 6 green balls. Three balls are drawn one after another without replacement. Find the probability that at least two balls drawn are green, Arun and Tarun appeared for an interview for two vacancies. The probability of Arun’s selection is 1/4 and that of Tarun’s rejection is 2/3. Find the probability that at least one of them will be selected. . Aand B toss a coin alternately till one of them gets a head and wins the game. If A starts the game, find the probability that B will win the game. . Two cards are drawn from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards, one after another without replacement. Find the probability that one of these is red card and the other a black card? (CBSE 2020] . Tickets are numbered from 1 to 10. Two tickets are drawn one after the other at random, Find the probability that the number on one of the tickets is a multiple of 5 and on the other a multiple of 4 . In a family, the husband tells a lie in 30% cases and the wife in 35% cases. Find the probability that both contradict each other on the same fact. A husband and wife appear in an interview for two vacancies for the same post. The probability of husband’s selection is 1/7 and that of wife’s selection is 1/5. What is the probability that (i) both of them will be selected? (ii) only one of them will be selected? (iii) none of them will be selected? A bag contains 7 white, 5 black and 4 red balls. Four balls are drawn without replacement. Find the probability that at least three balls are black. A, B, and Care independent witness of an event which is known to have occurred. A speaks the truth three times out of four, B four times out of five and C five times out of six. Whatis the probability that the occurrence will be reported truthfully by majority of three witnesses? 7. A bag contains 4 white balls and 2 black balls. Another contains 3 white balls and 5 black balls. If one ball is drawn from each bag, find the probability that (i) both are white (ii) both are black (iii) one is white and one is black A bag contains 4 white, 7 black and 5 red balls. 4 balls are drawn with replacement. What is the probability that at least two are white? Three cards are drawn with replacement from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards, Find the probability that the cards are a king, a queen and a jack. ‘A bag contains 4 red and 5 black balls, a second bag contains 3 red and 7 black balls. One ball is drawn at random from each bag, find the probability that the (i) balls are of different colours (ii) balls are of the same colour. . Acanhita target 3 times in 6 shots, B: 2 times in 6 shots and C : 4 times in 4 shots. They fixa volley. What is the probability that at least 2 shots hit? . The probability of student A passing an examination is 2/9 and of student B passing is 5/9. Assuming the two events :‘A passes’, ‘B passes’ as independent, find the. probability of : (i) only A passing the examination (i) only one of them passing the examination. . There are three urns A, B, andC. Urn A contains 4 red balls and 3 black balls. Urn B i Il is fa balls and 4 black balls. Urn C contains 4 red and 4 black balls. One bal Sain roca of these urns. What is the probability that 3 balls drawn consist of ? red balls and a black ball? oe a i the examination. His is taki ibjects - Mathematics, Physics and Chemistry in 2 0 Frobabiites fg pas grade A in these subjects are 0.2, 0.3 and 0.5 respectively. Find the robability that he gets id ; ; a gues A in all subjects (ii) Grade A in no subject i CBSE 20051 (iii) Grade A in two subjects. I0.70 MATHEMATICS-ANt 25. A and Btake turns in throwing two dice, the first to throw 9 being awarded the prize. Show that their chance of winning are in the ratio 9:8. A, rclrtetr echoes te L AD) Tt ae ae chances of winning assuming that the game may continue indefinitely’ Three persons A, B,C throw a die in succession till one gets a ‘six’ and wins the game. Find their respective probabilities of winning, », Aand B take tums in throwing two dice, the first to throw 10 being awarded the prize, show that if A has the first throw, their chance of winning are in the ratio 12; 11. 2». There are 3 red and 5 black balls in bag ‘A’; and 2 red and 3 black balls in bag ‘B’. One ball is drawn from bag ‘A’ and two from bag ‘B’. Find the probability that out of the 3 balls drawn one is red and 2 are black. Fatima and John appear in an interview for two vacancies for the same post. The Probability of Fatima’s selection is and that of John’s selection is What is the probability that (i) both of them will be selected? (ii) only one of them will be selected? (ii) none of them will be selected? Abag contains 8 marbles of which 3 are blue and 5 are red, One marble is drawn at random, its colour is noted and the marble is replaced in the bag. A marble is again drawn from the bag and its colour is noted. Find the probability that the marble will be (i) blue followed by red. (ii) blue and red in any order. _({ii) of the same colour. An um contains 7 red and 4 blue balls. Two balls are drawn at random with replacement. Find the probability of getting () 2redballs (ii) 2blueballs__ (iii) One red and one blue ball. A card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards, The outcome is noted, the card is replaced and the deck reshuffled. Another card is then drawn from the deck. (@) What is the probability that both the cards are of the same suit? (ii) What is the probability that the first card is an ace and the second card is a red queen? Out of 100 students, two sections of 40 and 60 are formed. If you and your friend are amon 100 students, what isthe probability that (i) you both enter the same section? (ii) you both enter the different sections? {CBSE 2008] Ina hockey match, both teams A and B scored same number of goals upto the end of the game, so to decide the winner, the refree asked both the captains to throw a die alternately and decide that the team, whose captain gets a first six, will be declared the winner. If the captain of team A was asked to start, find their respective probabilities of winning the match and state whether the decision of the refree was fair or not [CBSE 2013] A and B throw a pair of dice alternately. A wins the game if he gets a total of 7 and B wins the game if he gets a total of 10. If A starts the game, then find the probability that B wins, [CBSE 2016] A and B throw a pair of dice alternatively till one of then gets the sum of the numbers as multiples of 6 and wins the game. If A starts first, find the probability of B winning the game. ICBSE 2020) as ANSWERS i 50 Say 0 a 5, 35% Ors ws wy 2 ww? 7. 3 8. 2 9. i 10. 3 W z a 5, 044 wos ww 2 (uy 3 Ks 2 16. 2 @ i i) z (iii) 2PROBABILITY tains 5 red and 12 sther bag II con! EXAMPLES A bag I contains 3 red and n black balls and ano i. ifthe probability of drawing a red balls, A ball is drawn at random from bas ay bag I, after transfer, is 1/3, then if Land transferred to bag. find the value of n- red or black. So, let us define the ‘SOLUTION A ball transferred from bag I to bag II may be lowing events. E, =Ball transferred from bag I to bag Il is. ca la E, =Ball transferred from bag I to bag Il ae errata ves A=Drawing a red ball from bag I after trai 3 sehr ly P(E) =— 5, Pba)=— 5 t a =— P(A/E) => and P(A/E,) => Using total probability theorem, we obtain Hence, there are 6 black balls in bag I. x P(A) =P (E;) P(A/E;) + P (E)) P(A/E) Lhe 3 eB ae pone 3 n43 n+2 n+3° +2 1___3(n+2) 3 n+ 2) (n+ 3) n+3=9 =>n=6 EXERCISE 30.6 LEVEL-1 - Abag A contains 5 white and 6 black balls. Another bag Bcontains 4 white and 3 black balls. A ball is transferred from bag A to the bag Band then a ball is taken out of the second bag. Find the probability of this ball being black. A purse contains 2 silver and 4 copper coins. A second purse contains 4 silver and 3 coins. Ifa coin is pulled at random from one of the two purses, whatis the probability thatit isa silver coin? ICBSE 2020] . One bag contains 4 yellow and 5 red balls. Another bag contains 6 yellow and 3 red balls. A ball is transferred from the first bag to the second bag and then a ball is dr th second bag. Find the probability that ball drawn is yellow aa oC Ro | A bag contains 3 white and 2 black balls and another bag contains 2 white and 4 black balls. One bag is chosen at random. From the selected bag, one ball is drawn. Find the probabilit that the ball drawn is white. INCERT EXEMPLAR . The contents of three bags I, II and Il] are as follows: Bag 1:1 white, 2 black and 3 red balls, Bag I: 2 white, 1 black and 1 red ball; Bag III : 4 white, 5 black and 3 red balls. A bag is chosen at random and two balls are drawn. What i ii are white and red? mo - An unbiased coin is tossed. Ifthe resull is ahead, a pair of unbiased dice is rolled and the sum of the numbers obtained is noted. Ifthe resultisa tail, a card fa ofeleven cards numbered 2, 3,4, ..,12is picked and the number on the oad iene Wha is the probability that the noted number is either 7 or 8? ; A factory has two machines A and B. Past records show that th 4 ofthe items of output and machine B produced 40% of the tana sree aa or ae oe Produced by machine A were defective and 1% produced by machine B were defective ty an item is drawn at random, what is the probability that it is defective? : The bag A contains 8 white and 7 black balls while the bag B contains 5 white and balls. One ball is randomly picked up from the bag A and mixed up with the balls ink ent Then a ball is randomly drawn out from it. Find the probability that ball drawn is wrap [CBSE 2007]30.82 MATHEMATICS-Xit 9. Abag contains 4 white and 5 black balls and another bag contains 3 white and 4 black balls, A ball is taken out from the first bag and without seeing its colour is putin the second bag, A ball is taken out from the latter. Find the probability that the ball drawn is white. 10. One bag contains 4 white and 5 black balls. Another bag contains 6 white and 7 black balls. A ball is transferred from first bag to the second bag and then a ball is drawn from the second bag. Find the probability that the ball drawn is white. 11. An um contains 10 white and 3 biack balls. Another urn contains 3 white and 5 black balls. ‘Two are drawn from first um and put into the second urn and then a ball is drawn from the latter. Find the probability that it is a white ball. 12. A bag contains 6 red and 8 black balls and another bag contains 8 red and 6 black balls. A ball is drawn from the first bag and without noticing its colour is put in the second bag. A ball is drawn from the second bag. Find the probability that the ball drawn is red in colour. 13. Three machines E}, Ey, E3 in a certain factory produce 50%, 25% and 25% respectively, of the total daily output of electric bulbs. Itis known that 4% of the tubes produced one each of machines E; and Ep are defective, and that 5% of those produced on E3 are defective. If one tube is picked up at random from a day's production, calculate the probability that it is defective. [NCERT EXEMPLAR, CBSE 2015] See NN a 5, 18 15 495 9 os 10. 2 72 63 HINTS TO NCERT & SELECTED PROBLEMS 2. Consider the following events: B= Selecting fist purse, £,~Sletng second purse, A= Coin drawn sver coin Wehave, P(E) = P(E) = 5, P(A/E) = 2, P(A/E) = i. Required probability = P ye =P (Ey) P tes + P (Ey) P(A/Ey). 4. Consider the following events: E, = Selecting first bag, E2 = selecting second bag, A = ball drawn is white. Then, P (E,) = P (E>) =1/2, P (A/E,) = 3/5, P (A/E3) =2/6. Required probability = P (A) = P(E) P(A/E,) + P (Ep) P (A/E) ah ee 2 -2 5. Let Ey = bag Lis selected, E, = bag Il is selected, Ey = bag II is selected and, A = Two balls drawn from the chosen bag are white and red. eae ce x, Pave) =-© ——1, P(A/E,) paste and P(A/E3) = aac Aer wc) . Required fe = P(A) =P (E,) P(A/E;)+ P(E,) P (A/Ep) + P (E3) P(A/Es) 6. LetE = The coin shows a head, F, = The coin shows a tail, A= The noted numberis 7 or 8. Then, P (E;) =1/2, P (Ez) =1/2, P(A/E;) =11/36 and P(A/E,) =2/11. Required probability = P(A) = P (E,) P (A/E}) + P (E>) P(A/E)PROBABILITY 0 35, P(A/E)) = 2. P(A/E) a P(A/Eg) = Aol a 35). 65 = Ji) Required probabili = POA/Es) =1-P(A/Es) =1 599 = 399 0° (ii) Required probability = P(A) = P(E) P(A/E;) + P(E,) P(A/E2) + P(E3) P(A/Es) 4.45 4 60 2 35 _ 490 _o49 =x + Kt 70" 100° 10" 100 10° 100 1000 (iii) Required probability = PE/A) = P(Ey VA) _ P(E) P(A/Ep) _ P(E) (1 -P(A/Ep)) P(A) P(A) 1-P(A) 4 (1-2) 4 40 _ 10" 100) _ 10“ 100 _ 16 72 Blt 100 100 EXAMPLE 24 There are two boxes, namely, box-I and box-Il. Box-I contains 3 red and 6 black balls. Box-II contains 5 red and n black balls. One of the two boxes, box-I and box-II is selected at random and a ball is drawn at random. The ball drawn is found to be red. If the probability that this red ball comes out n box-Il is 1/3, find the value of n. TION Consider the following events. E, =Selecting box-I, Ey =Selecting box-Il, A =Getting a red ball from selected box. Clearly P(E,) =}, P(E) 2. It is given that P (E,/A) = Using Baye’s theorem, we obtain P(E>/A)= Se Eee P (E,) P(A/E)) + P (Ey) P (A/Ea) Lage 5 2745 ee gi dies 5 3 n+20 2°32 n45 => n+20=45 >n=25 teil EXER ee LEVEL-1 1, The contents of urns 1, 1, I are as follows: Urn 1:1 white, 2 black and 3 red balls Um II: 2 white, 1 black and 1 red balls Um II: 4 white, 5 black and 3 red balls. One urn is chosen at random and two balls are drawn. They hi 7 . They happen to be white i Whatis the probability that they come from Urns I, I II? ee ow eel ‘A bag A contains 2 white and 3 red balls and a bag B contains 4 white and 5 red balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and is found to be red. Find the probability that it was drawn from bag B. [eBsEzor eaten NMATHEMATICS-Xit E.. 30.96 : mal 3, Three ums contain 2 white and 3 black balls; 3 white and 2 black balls and 4 white and 1 ig th black ball respectively. One ball is drawn from an urn chosen at random and it was found to bia bewhite. Find the probability that it was drawn from the first urn. (NCERT EXEMPLAR] ap 4. The contents of three urns are as follows: hea Um .7white,3blackballs, Urn2:4white, 6blackballs, and Um 3: 2white, 8blackballs. ay One of these urns is chosen at random with probabilities 0.20, 0.60 and 0.20 respectively. os Frum the chosen um two balls are drawn at random without replacement. If both these me bulls are white, what is the probability that these came from um 3? i 5. Suppose a girl throws a die. If she gets 1 or 2, she tosses a coin, three times and notes the Fin aoe ot tils. I she gets 3, 4,5 or 6, she tosses a coin once and notes whether @ ‘head’ or Ki aarr pes ptained. Ifshe ebtained exactly one ‘tail’, whats the probability that she threw 3,4, yA 5or6with the die? {CBSE2015] bic 6. Two groups are competing for the positions of the Board of Directors of a Corporation. The CN probabilities that the first and the second groups will win are 0.6 and 0.4 respectively. up Paather if the fist group wins, the probability of introducing a new product is 0.7 and the se corresponding probability is 03 if the second group wins. Find the probability that thenew 4, Th product introduced was by the second group. [NCERT, CBSE 2009] ba 7. Suppose 5 men out of 100 and 25 women out of 1000 are good orators. An orator is chosen at fo rae tom: Find the probability that a male person is selected. Assume that there are equal ein number of men and women Fs 5, A letter is known to have come either from LONDON or CLIFTON. On the envelope just it {wo consecutive letters ON are visible. What is the probability that the letter has come from (i) LONDON (ii) CLIFTON? : 49, Ina class, 5% of the boys and 10% of the girls have an 1Q of more than 150. In this class, 60% al the students are boys. Ifa student is selected at random and found to have an1Q of more mA than 150, find the probability that the student is a boy. P 10. A factory has three machines X, Y and Z producing 1000, 2000 and 3000 bolts per day 0 respectively. The machine X produces 1% defective bolts, Y produces 1.5% and Z produces t Doehdefective bolts. At the end of a day, a bolt is drawn at random and is found to be A defective. Whatis the probability that this defective bolt has been produced by machine X? ¢ [CBSE 20021 t 11. An insurance company insured 3000 scooters, 4000 cars and 5000 trucks. The probabilities ofthe accident involving a scooter, a car and a truck are 0.02, 0.03 and 0.04 respectively. One a of the insured vehicles meet with an accident. Find the probability that it is a (a) scooter (ii) } car (iii) truck. [NCERT, CBSE 2001C] if 12. Suppose we have four boxes A, B,C, D containing coloured marbles as given below: { | ia Red White Black a, A | 1 6 3 B 6 2 2 G | 8 1 1 D | 0 6 4 One of the boxes has been selected at random and a single marble is drawn from it, Ifthe one eisved, whats the probability that it was drawn from box A ? box B?boxC?_ CERT} 43, A manufacturer has three machine operators A, Band C, The first operator A produces 1% % defective items, whereas the other two operators B and C produce 5% and 7% defective {tems respectively. A ison the job for 50% of the time, Bon the job for 30% of the tte andC on the job for 20% of the time. A defective item is produced. What is the probability that it was produced by A? INCERT, CBSE 2019} 14. Anitem is manufactured by three machines A, B and C. Out of the total number of items tnanufactured during a specified period, 50% are manufacture on machine A, 30% on Band 6 20% on C. 2% of the items produced on A and 2% of items produced on Bare defective and : 39% of these produced on C are defective. “All the items stored at one godown. One item 6 ;maT drawn at random and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it was manufactured on machine A? INCERT EXEMPLARJ 15, There are three coins, One is two-headed coin (having head on both faces), another is biased coin that comes up heads 75% of the times and third is also a biased coin that comes up tail 40% of the times. One of the three coins is chosen at random and tossed, and it shows heads. What is the probability that it was the two-headed coin? [CBSE 2014) 16, Ina factory, machine A produces 30% of the total output, machine B produces 25% and the machine C produces the remaining output. If defective items produced by machines A, B and C are 1%, 1.2%, 2% respectively. Three machines working together produce 10000 items in a day. An item is drawn at random from a day’s output and found to be defective. Find the probability that it was produced by machine B? 17. Acompany has two plants to manufacture bicycles. The first plant manufactures 60% of the bicycles and the second plant 40%. Out of that 80% of the bicycles are rated of standard quality at the first plant and 90% of standard quality at the second plant. A bicycle is picked up at random and found to be standard quality. Find the probability that it comes from the second plant. [CBSE 2003} 18. Three urns A, Band C contain 6 red and 4 white; 2 red and 6 white; and 1 red and 5 white balls respectively. An urn is chosen at random and a ball is drawn, If the ball drawn is found to be red, find the probability that the ball was drawn fromurnA. {CBSE 2004] 19. In a group of 400 people, 160 are smokers and non-vegetarian, 100 are smokers and vegetarian and the remaining are non-smokers and vegetarian, The probabilities of getting a special chest disease are 35%, 20% and 10% respectively. A person is chosen from the group at random and is found to be suffering from the disease. What is the probability that the selected person is a smoker and non-vegetarian? {CBSE 2013} 20, A factory has three machines A, Band C, which produce 100, 200 and 300 items of a particular type daily. The machines produce 2%, 3% and 5% defective items respectively, | ‘One day when the production was over, an item was picked up randomly and it was found | to be defective. Find the probability that it was produced by machine A, [CBSE 2004] 21, A bag contains 1 white and 6 red balls, and a second bag contains 4 white and 3 red balls, One of the bags is picked up at random and a ball is randomly drawn from it, and is found | to be white in colour. Find the probability that the drawn ball was from the first bag. [CBSE 2005] 22, Inacertain college, 4% of boys and 1% of girls are taller than 1.75 metres. Further more, 60% of the students in the colleges a A student selected at random from the college is found to be taller than 1.75 metres, Find the probability that the selected students is girl. [CBSE 2012] 23. For A, B and C the chances of being selected as the manager of a firm are in the ratio 4:1:2 respectively. The respective probabilities for them to introduce a radical change in marketing strategy are 0.3, 0.8 and 0.5. If the change does take place, find the probability that it is due to the appointment of B or C. <3 oi (cose 2006) | , Band C apply for a job of Manager in a private company. Chances: % Dee CA end Care itheratio1:2:4,The probabilities that A,B andC ean introduce changes to improve profits of the company are 0.8, 0.5 and 0.3 respectively, If the nee do not take place, find the probability that itis due to the appointment of C. iene eae 25. An insurance company insured 2000 scooters and 3000 motorcycles. The probably ad accident involving a scooter is 0.01 and that of a motorcycle is 0.02, An insured vé with an accident. Find the probability that the accidented vehicle was a. end of the year, one stud What is the probability that the selected student30.98 MATHEMATICS-Xil 27. There are three coins. One is two headed. coin, another is a biased coin that comes up heads 75% of the time and third is an unbiased coin. One of the three coins is choosen at. random. and tossed, it shows heads, what is the probability that it was the two headed coin? 30. a1. 33. 35. (NCERT, CBSE 2009] . Assume that the chances of a patient having a heart attack is 40%. It is also assumed that meditation and yoga course reduces the risk of heart attack by 30% and prescription of certain drug reduces its chances by 25%. At a time a patient can choose any one of the two options with equal probabilities. It is given that after going through one of the two options and patient selected at random suffers a heart attack, Find the probability that the patient followed a course of meditation and yoga? . Coloured balls are distributed in four boxes as shown in the following table: Colour Weve gS INCERT, CBSE 2013] __ Red Blue 5 6 2 7) 3 1 sal oa A box is selected at random and then a ball is randomly drawn from the selected box. The colour of the ball is black, what is the probability that ball drawn is from the box III. Ifamachine is correctly set up it produces 90% acceptable items. If it is incorrectly set up it produces only 40% acceptable items. Past experience shows that 80% of the setups are correctly done. If after a certain set up, the machine produces 2 acceptable items, find the probability that the machine is correctly set up. INCERT] Bag A contains 3 red and 5 black balls, white bag B contains 4 red and 4 black balls. Two balls are transferred at random from bag A to bag B and then a ball is drawn from bag Bat random. If the ball drawn from bag B is found to be red, find the probability that two red balls were transferred from bag A to bag B. LEVE! ICBSE 2016] . By examining the chest X-ray, probability that T.B is detected when a person is actually suffering is 0.99. The probability that the doctor diagnoses incorrectly that a person has TB. on the basis of X-ray is 0,001. In a certain city 1 in 1000 persons suffers from T.B. A person is selected at random is diagnosed to have T.B. Whatis the chance thathe actually has T, (NCERT EXEMPLAR] A test for detection of a particular disease is not fool proof. The test will. correctly detect the disease 90% of the time, but will incorrectly detect the disease 1% of the time. For a large population of which an estimated 0.2% have the disease, a person is selected at random, given the test, and told that he has the disease. What are the chances that the person actually have the disease? Let dj , da , dg be three mutually exclusive diseases. Let Sbe the set of observable symptoms of these diseases. A doctor has the following information from a random. sample of 5000 patients: 1800 had disease dy, 2100 has disease d, and the others had disease d . 1500 patients with disease d,, 1200 patients with disease d, and 900 patients with disease d3 showed the symptom. Which of the diseases is the patient most likely to have? Ais known to speak truth 3 times out of 5 times. He throws a die and reports that it is one. Find the probability thatit is actually one, [CBSE 2004]PROBABILITY 30.99 36. A speaks the truth times out of 10 times. A die's tossed. He reports that twas 5 We the probability that it was actually 5? [CBSE 2005} 47. In answering a question on a multiple choice test a student either knows the answer OF guesses. Let 3/4 be the probability that he knows the answer and 1/4 be the probability that he guesses. Assuming that a student who guesses at the answer will be correct with probability 1/4. What is the probability that a student knows the answer given that he answered it correctly? 49. A laboratory blood test is 99% effective in detecting a certain disease when its infection is present. However, the test also yields a false positive result for 0.5% of the healthy person tested (ie. if a healthy person is tested, then, with probability 0.005, the test will imply he has the disease). If 0.1% of the population actually has the disease, what is the probability that a person has the disease given that his test result is positive? [NCERT] ‘There are three categories of students in a class of 60 students: ‘A: Very hardworking ; B : Regular but not so hardworking; C: Careless and irregular 10 students are in category A, 30 in category B and rest in category C. It is found that the probability of students of category A, unable to get good marks in the final year pramination is 0.002, of category B it is 0.02 and of category C, this probability is 0.20. A Student selected at random was found to be one who ‘could not get good marks in the set ination. Find the probability that this student is of category C: [CBSE 2017] Sa __ ANSWERS 55 30 5 1 ia ie 18 “a 35 ef om : ; : 37 ake a a y 1 % 10, 04 u Or @ 5 i a5 2. Bs s 14. A 15. D 16. i. oon 18. a 3 20. 5 2.5 2 2B 2 i 25 ; 26. 27 3 25,8 s 30. = 31 = 32. ” 33. 3 4, 35. a 36.3 wt 38. 39. a a _ HINTS TO NCERT & SELECTED PROBLEMS Let us define the following events Ey = Um Lis chosen, Fa = Um Mis chosen, E3 = Urn Ili rnosen, and A = Two balls drawn are white and red. Clearly, P(Ey) =1/3 = P(E) = P(E3) Je, x 3¢, CEG cat 1, P(A/Ey) = 4c 1 and, P(A/E3) = i PE) P(A/E) P(E\/A)= 5 ey BATE) +P E) P(A / Ea) +P Es) P(A/ES) a Let; = Bag Ais chosen, Ep ~ Bag Bis chosen, and A= Ball draw ized P(E) = P(Ey) =1/2 P (A/E,) =3/Sand P (A/E) =5/9, A x P(A/E)) = pisses