Green Belt Analyse Phase
Green Belt Analyse Phase
ANALYZE PHASE
“If you torture the data long enough, it will confess.” - Ronald H. Coase
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COURSE CONTENT
Coverage:
• ANALYZE PHASE TOOLS
7 QC Tools (Histogram, Cause-and-Effect Diagrams / Fishbone
Diagram, Pareto charts, Control Charts, Scatter diagrams,
Stratification, Check Sheet) and PFMEA
5 Why Analysis, Tree Diagram, Affinity clustering
Data visualization - Box Plot , Multi Vari charts Trends and
comparison charts
Hypothesis testing - Parametric test (Continuous Data , Discrete
Data) Alpha & Beta errors
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Analyze Phase
The Analyze phase of DMAIC project helps PROCESS DATA
project teams to identify “Vital X” form the DOOR DOOR
list of “Potential Xs”.
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7 QC Tools
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Check sheet one of the 7QC tools it is a form or data collection template used to collect
data in real time at the location where the data is generated. The data it captures can be
quantitative or qualitative
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Kaoru Ishikawa
A Cause and Effect Diagram is a graphical tool for displaying a list of causes associated with a
specific effect. It is also known as a fishbone diagram or an Ishikawa diagram (created by Dr.
Kaoru Ishikawa, an influential quality management innovator). The graph organizes a list of
potential causes into categories.
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7 QC Tools – Histogram
Histogram is a graphical representation of the
distribution of numerical data
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This is famously referred as “80-20 rule” or “Vital few trivial many” and
graphical represented as “Pareto Chart”
The tool was popularized by Joseph M Juran and Kaoru Ishikawa. Vilfredo Pareto
How to construct Pareto chart
Step 1 : Root cause identified during fishbone diagram can be converted as defect
categories
Step 2 : Collect the data to identify the frequency of each defect category
Step 3 : Calculate the contribution of each category to the total number of defects Minitab exercise
Step 4 : Calculate Cumulative Contribution
Step 5 : Plot the number of defect counts in primary access (As bar-graph)
Step 6 : Plot the cumulative contribution in Secondary access (As Line-graph)
Excel Analysis
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7 QC Tools – Stratification
Stratification is to classify or group data with matching characteristics in groups or strata. It
serves to facilitate the work before using other tools such as histograms or scatter diagrams
Joseph M. Juran
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UCL
_
Plan
X
LCL
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•For each process step determine the ways in which the input to the step or the
function of the step can go wrong (failure mode – People , Process , Technology ).
•For each failure mode, determine effects - Select a severity rating for each effect
(1-10 scale)
•Identify potential causes of each failure mode - Select an occurrence rating for
each cause (1-10 scale)
•List current monitoring and controls for each cause -Select a detection rating for
each cause (1-10 scale)
•Multiple these three ratings to calculate Risk Priority Number (S * O * D = RPN)
•Identify the process steps with high RPN (>100) and take required actions to bring
down the RPN
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•FMEA should be a living document , Keep updating the actions taken and
subsequent reduction in RPA
Assume that the Severity number Item Severity Occurrence Detection RPN
cannot be reduced. Indicate the a 8 10 2 160
order of importance that you b 10 8 2 160
would assign as far as addressing
c 8 2 10 160
these processes so as to reduce
overall risk. d 10 2 8 160
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5 why Analysis
The 5 Whys technique is a
simple and effective tool for
solving problems. Its primary
goal is to find the exact reason
that causes a given problem by
asking a sequence of “Why”
questions.
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Hypothesis testing
A hypothesis test evaluates two mutually exclusive statements about a population
to determine which statement is best supported by the sample data. Hypothesis
testing is the process of using statistics to determine the probability that a specific
hypothesis is true or false.
To prove that a hypothesis is true, or false, with absolute certainty, we would need
absolute knowledge. That is, we would have to examine the entire population.
Instead, hypothesis testing concerns on how to use a random sample to judge if it
is evidence that supports or not the hypothesis.
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Hypothesis testing
Scenario 1
Operations Manager of Tier 1 automobile component
manufacturing company makes a statement in weekly
Production Planning and Control meeting that
“ Morning shift take less time to produce one unit compared
to the night shift… hence morning shift is more productive
compared to night shift”
What operations Manager trying to prove is called “Real Life Hypothesis” in this
case, Morning shift is performing better than the night shift
If we try and convert this “Real Life Hypothesis” in to “Statistical Hypothesis” we
will rephrase as “The Average handling time of morning shift is lesser than the
average handling time of night shift”
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Hypothesis testing
Now we have perfect opportunity to perform a
hypothesis testing
There is no difference… every thing is good and no problem is called Null
Hypothesis (H o)
“The Average handling time of morning shift is same as the average handling time
of night shift”
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Hypothesis testing
Step1 : Understand the scenario
Step2 : Frame “real life Hypothesis”
Step3 : Convert “real life Hypothesis” in to “statistical Hypothesis”
Step4 : This “statistical Hypothesis” is called “Alternate Hypothesis” (Ha)
Step5 : Based on “Alternate Hypothesis” (Ha) frame “Null Hypothesis” (Ho)
Step6 : Collect sample
Step7 : Perform test statistics
Step8 : Based on the test result either go with Ho or Ha
Step9 : Convert test result in to Business context
Going Back in time
In a courtroom, the person is assumed innocent until proven guilty. In a hypothesis test, we
assume the null hypothesis is true until the data proves otherwise
It is only later, in 1933, that “hypothesis tests” were invented by two statisticians: Polish Jerzy
Neyman and British Egon Pearson
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Hypothesis testing
Now we have decided to test this hypothesis… Operations manager (OM)
requested the Team Lead (TL) of both the shift to collect AHT of 60 sample
each from their respective teams
After few days both the TLs reverted back to the OM with 60 samples of AHT
and the corresponding sample averages are
Morning shift : 17 Min 42 Sec Most of us would have made your
Night Shift : 20 Min 35 Sec decision by looking at these values
but failed to notice
Question to audience is … Will you go with Ho or Ha
Null Hypothesis (H o) : “The Average handling time of morning shift is same as the
average handling time of night shift”
Alt Hypothesis (H a) : “The Average handling time of morning shift is lesser than the
average handling time of night shift”
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Hypothesis testing
What is the relevance of “Sample average” in previous slide?
Understanding the DATA under study is very important in hypothesis testing
Continuous Count
Population
Binary
Discrete
Sample
Ordinal
Measured Derived
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14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Hypothesis testing
Now we understand confidence interval plays a very important role deciding the out
come of Hypothesis testing
Based on these formulas we can make the
following statements
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Hypothesis testing
What can go wrong while doing Hypothesis testing
Truth
Ho Ha
Correct
Type II
Ho Decision
Error
1– =
Confidence
Accept
1 - = Probability of
Correct correctly accepting
Type I Decision the alternative
Ha Error 1 – = Power
hypothesis
(detecting a change
when there is one).
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Hypothesis testing
Identifying the correct Hypothesis test based on scenario
What
Discrete Continuous
type of
Data Data
data
Statistics of interest
Data
: proportion
distribution
2 Proportion Test
Variance or Mean or
Chi square Test standard deviation Average Median
One sample
One variance t-test , z-test One sample Sign test
Test Two sample t-
test, paired T Mann - Whitney test
Test for Two or
more variance One way
Moods Median test
ANOVA
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Pre Requisites
Hypothesis testing - Statistics of interest : Variance Data Type Continuous
Test for two or more variance Distribution Normal
Determine whether the variance or the standard deviation of two or more groups
are different
Business Scenario: A vegetable oil company procure a “Chemical -x” one of the
important ingredients from two different suppliers. As Quality manager you are
tasked to find if the pH value of the chemical of both the suppliers have same level
of variation
Minitab exercise
Refer : Test for Two variance
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Sample N StDev CI
PH Value from Suppler 2 100 0.467028 (0.392291, 0.568752)
PH Value from Suppler 3 100 0.422790 (0.372456, 0.490930)
Individual confidence level = 97.5%
Tests CI clearly
Test over lap
Method Statistic P-Value
Multiple comparisons 0.91 0.341
Levene 0.07 0.796
P-Value < 0.05 go with Alternative hypothesis
P-Value > 0.05 go with Null hypothesis
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Pre Requisites
Hypothesis testing - Statistics of interest : Variance Data Type Continuous
One variance test Distribution Normal
Determine whether the variance or the standard deviation of a sample is different
from a specified value
Business Scenario: An Automobile manufacturing company procure paint from
leading MNC paint company. As per the contract the acceptable level of Delta – E
variation is 0.04 with a mean of 1.2, As procurement manager you are tasked to
check if the variation is with in the 0.04 level as per contract
Minitab exercise
Refer : One variance test
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Pre Requisites
Hypothesis testing - Statistics of interest : Variance Data Type Continuous
One variance test Distribution Normal
Determine whether the variance or the standard deviation of a sample is different
from a specified value
Null hypothesis σ = 0.04
Alternative hypothesis σ > 0.04
The chi-square method is only for the normal distribution. The Bonett method is for any continuous distribution.
Statistics
Variable N StDev Variance
Delta_E 60 0.0923 0.00851
95% Confidence Intervals
Variable Method CI for StDev CI for Variance
Delta_E Chi-Square (0.0782, 0.1125) (0.00612, 0.01266)
Bonett (0.0803, 0.1096) (0.00645, 0.01200)
Tests
Test
Variable Method Statistic DF P-Value
Delta_E Chi-Square 200.92 59 0.000 P-Value < 0.05 go with Alternative hypothesis
Bonett — — 0.000 P-Value > 0.05 go with Null hypothesis
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Pre Requisites
Hypothesis testing - Statistics of interest : Variance Data Type Continuous
One variance test Distribution Normal
Determine whether the variance or the standard deviation of a sample is different
from a specified value
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Minitab exercise
Refer : 1 Sample Z-test
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Minitab exercise
Refer : 1 Sample Z-test
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Minitab exercise
Refer : 2 Sample T-test
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Minitab exercise
Refer : Paired t-test
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Minitab exercise
Refer : ANOVA
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Means
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Minitab exercise
Refer : 1 proportion test
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Exact
Sample X N Sample p 95% CI P-Value
1 6 283 0.021201 (0.007819, 0.045573) 0.003
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Minitab exercise
Refer : 2 proportion test
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Minitab exercise
Refer : 1 proportion test
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