QUESTION 2 [20 MARKS]
An outbreak of Lumpy Skin Disease in cattle has provided the following results over an
observation period of three (3) days:
Type of cattle Disease Disease Total
affected positive negative
Meat 75 675 750
Dairy 20 230 250
Total 95 905 1 000
2.1 Provide the formula to calculate the prevalence of a disease. (2 marks)
ANSWER Prevalence= (number of cases of disease / population at risk) *C
2.2 Then, with reference to the data tabled above, calculate the prevalence of Lumpy Skin
Disease in:
2.2.1 meat cattle (4marks)
ANSWER Meat cattle that are D+ =75 Population at risk (a+b) = 750
= (75/750)*C = 0.1 * C= 10%
2.2.2 dairy cattle (4 marks)
ANSWER Dairy cattle that are D+ =20 Population at risk (c+d) = 250
= (20/250)*C = 0.08 * C= 8%
2.2.3 meat and dairy cattle combined (4 marks)
ANSWER total cattle that are D+ =95 Population at risk (n) = 1000
= (95/1000)*C = 0.095 * C= 9.5%
2.3 With reference to the data in the table above, calculate the proportion of:
2.3.1 meat cattle affected by Lumpy Skin Disease (3 marks)
ANSWER 75/750 = 0.1= 10%
2.3.2 dairy cattle not affected by Lumpy Skin Disease (3 marks)
ANSWER 230/250 =0.92= 92%
QUESTION 3 [20 MARKS]
On 1 January 2020, 50 Dormer sheep in a flock of 1000 animals in the Karoo were found to be
suffering from Paratuberculosis. Between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2020, 30 animals
died, and 10 new cases developed. Calculate the following population parameters:
3.1 Prevalence of the disease on 31 December 2020 (6 marks)
ANSWER
Prevalence = (number of sick animals/population at risk)*C
Sick on 31 Dec= 50-30+10=30
Population =1000-30=970
C=100
(30/970)*100 = 3.1%
3.1 Incidence of the disease (calculate the average population at risk) between 1 January and
31 December 2020) (9 marks)
ANSWER
Incidence = (new cases/average pop at risk) *C
Ave Population = (970+1000)/2 =985
New cases=10
C=100
(10/985)*100=1.02%
3.3 The case fatality rate between 1 January and 31 December 2020 (5 marks )
ANSWER Case fatality rate = (no of deaths/total cases per annum)*C
(30/60)*100 = 50%
QUESTION 4 [20 MARKS]
4.1 Complete the following frequency distribution table for the severity of mastitis in 100 cattle diagnosed
with mastitis during a routine examination of 100 cows with high somatic cell counts, by calculating and
filling in the missing values in the blank spaces (copy the table into your answer book)
Category Frequency Relative frequency Cumulative frequency
1 5
2 10
3 20
4 30
5 25
6 10
Total N=100 1
ANSWER
Category Frequency Relative frequency Cumulative frequency
1 5 0.05 5
2 10 0.1 15
3 20 0.2 35
4 30 0.3 65
5 25 0.25 90
6 10 0.1 100
Total N=100 1
(12)
4.2 Using the table draw a histogram using relative frequency of mastitis severity (8 marks)
ANSWER
Relative frequency of mastitis
severity
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
1 2 3 4 5 6
QUESTION 5 [20 MARKS]
5.1 On the 1st of January 2020, 20 dairy cattle in a breeding herd of 600 were found to be positive for
mastitis. Between 1 January and 31 December, 2020, 30 new cases appeared. Over the year, 10
cattle had to be slaughtered because of mastitis. Calculate (show all formulas and calculations):
5.1.1 Calculate the prevalence on 31 December 2020 ( 5 marks )
ANSWER
Prevalence = number of cases of a disease on a given date
Total population at risk on that date *C
= (20+30-10) / (600-10) * 1000
= 40/590 *1000
= 0.0677 * 1000
= 67 cases per 1000 or 6.7%
5.1.2 The incidence of mastitis between 1/1/2020 and 31/12/2020
(5 marks )
ANSWER
Incidence = Number of new cases
Total population at risk at beginning of period *C
= 30/600 * 1000
= 0.05 *1000
= 50 per 1000 or 5%
5.2 Explain in your own words the difference between stratified random sampling and cluster sampling
(6 marks)
ANSWER
Stratified random sampling: The sampling fame is divided into strata based on factors likely to
influence the level f the characteristic being estimated, following which, a simple or stratified
random sample is selected in each stratum.
Cluster sampling: The sample units are larger than the unit in question. All units within a cluster
are tested – eg all the cows in a herd. Clusters can arise naturally, eg pens, herds. geographic
clusters can be formed by using grid maps, Artificial clusters eg state vet districts.
5.3 Explain in your own words the meaning of temporal and spatial aspects of a disease (4)
ANSWER
Temporal: Temporal aspects of disease outbreaks are those referring to time
Spatial: Spatial aspects of disease outbreaks are those referring to the place where the
outbreak occurs.
