MATH1179 Mathematics for Computer Science

Probability – workbook solutions

1. What is the probability of choosing a vowel from the alphabet?
Alphabet {a, b, … z}
Vowel {a, e, i, o, u}
P(vowel) = 5/26

2. A number from 1 to 11 is chosen at random. What is the probability of choosing an odd number?
Odd number {1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11}
Non-odd numbers {2, 4, 6, 8, 10}
P(odd number) = 6/11

3. In a math class of 30 students, 17 are boys and 13 are girls. On a unit test, 4 boys and 5 girls
made an A grade. If a student is chosen at random from the class, what is the probability of
choosing a girl or an A student?
P(girl or A) = P(girl) + P(A) - P(girl and A)
= 13/20 + 9/30 – 5/30 = 17/30

4. After throwing a dice, what is the probability that the number of dots on the uppermost side is
divisible by 3?
Throwing a dice – sample space: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Numbers divisible by three: 3, 6
P(throwing number divisible by 3) = 2/6 = 1/3

5. An unscrupulous gambler has a loaded dice, with the probabilities:

P(1) = 0.1, P(2) = 0.2, P(3) = 0.1, P(4) = 0.2, P(5) = 0.1, P(6) = 0.3
Which is more probable that it falls with an even number or that it falls with a number greater
than 3?
Sample Space {1, 2, 3, 4. 5. 6}
P(even) = P(2) + P(4) + P(6) = 0.2 + 0.2 + 0.3 = 0.7
P(number > 3) = P(4) +P(5) + P(6) = 0.2 + 0.1 + 0.3 = 0.6
Therefore greater probability of an even number.

6. A fair coin is tossed three times.

i. What is the probability that at least two consecutive heads appear?
ii. What is the probability that exactly two heads, not necessarily consecutive appear?

Can consider all possible options for tossing coin 3 times:

HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTT, TTH
2 options for first toss, 2 for second, 2 for third therefore samples space as above
contains 2*2*2 outcomes for tossing the coin 3 times, 23 = 8

Probability Page 1
 MATH1179 Mathematics for Computer Science
Outcomes with two consecutive heads HHH, HHT, THH
So P(2 consecutive heads) = 3/8
Looking at all 8 options, P(2 heads) = 3/8

7. On New Year's Eve, the probability of a person having a car accident is 0.09. The probability of
a person driving while intoxicated is 0.32 and probability of a person having a car accident while
intoxicated is 0.15. What is the probability of a person driving while intoxicated or having a car
accident?
P(intoxicated or accident) = P(intoxicated) + P(accident) - P(intoxicated and accident)
= 0.32 + 0.09 - 0.15
= 0.26
Numbers may not make sense for this one!

8. A dresser drawer contains one pair of socks with each of the following colors: blue, brown, red,
white and black. Each pair is folded together in a matching set. You reach into the sock drawer
and choose a pair of socks without looking. You replace this pair and then choose another pair
of socks. What is the probability that you will choose the red pair of socks both times?
P(red) = 1/5
P(red and red) = P(red) · P(red)
= 1/5 * 1/5 = 1/25

9. A jar contains 3 red, 5 green, 2 blue and 6 yellow marbles. A marble is chosen at random from
the jar. After replacing it, a second marble is chosen. What is the probability of choosing a
green and then a yellow marble?
P(green) = 5/16
P(yellow) = 6/16
P(green and yellow) = P(green) · P(yellow)
= 5/16 * 6/16 = 30/256 = 15/128

10. Three cards are chosen at random from a deck of 52 cards without replacement. What is the
probability of choosing 3 aces?
P(3 aces) = 4/52 * 3/51 * 2/50 = 24/132,600 = 1/5525

11. Calculate the following using your calculator and Excel. For any that give an error or an
unexpected answer, can you explain why?

Probability Page 2
 MATH1179 Mathematics for Computer Science

12. A Formula 1 race consists of 22 cars. The teams firstly take part in a qualifying session to
determine the order in which they start the race, and then there is the actual race.

(i) In the first part of qualifying, the cars race to set the fastest time. The slowest six cars
are eliminated and the others proceed to the next round of qualifying – the order in
which they finish does not matter. In how many ways can the six cars be eliminated?
(ii) In the second part, another six cars are eliminated and the remainder proceed to the
final stage, order does not matter. Again, in how many ways can the six cars be
eliminated?
(iii) In the final part of qualifying the remaining cars set their fastest time and their order is
decided by this. In many ways can this be done?
(iv) The race now takes place with all 22 cars. In how many ways can the podium be
formed? The podium consists of the first, second and third placed cars in order.

Probability Page 3
 MATH1179 Mathematics for Computer Science

13. Consider the following game:

You roll a die. If you roll a 1 then you immediately win. If you do not, then you get to roll
again. This time if you roll a 1 or 2 then you win, otherwise you lose.

Draw a probability tree of this game.

What is your probability of winning?

Any suitable graph is fine, it doesn’t have to look exactly like this

Probability= 1/6 + 5/18 = 8/18 = 4/9 (approx 0.444)

14. What is the expected value of the following?

(i) Rolling a die with sides 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4

(ii) Rolling a die with sides 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12
(iii) The sum of the rolls of two standard dice (so sides 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)

(i) (1/6) x 1 + (1/6) x 2 + (1/6) x 3 + (1/6) x 4 + (1/6) x 4 + (1/6) x 4 = 3

(ii) (1/6) x 2 + (1/6) x 4 + (1/6) x 6 + (1/6) x 8 + (1/6) x 10 + (1/6) x 12 = 7
(iii) Trickier! If you draw a table of the relevant sums you get
Roll 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12

The total number of possibilities for each number are:

Total Number of possibilities
2 1
3 2
4 3
5 4
6 5
7 6
8 5
9 4
10 3
11 2
12 1
Probability Page 4
 MATH1179 Mathematics for Computer Science

There are 36 different elements in the table.

Hence the expected value is
(1/36) x 2 + (2/36) x 3 + (3/36) x 4+ (4/36) x 5 + (5/36) x 6 + (6/36) x 7 + (5/36) x 8
+ (4/36) x 9 + (3/36) x 10 + (2/36) x 11 + (1/36) x 12 = 7

15. Suppose you are in the following situation:

You are on a game show, with a choice of five boxes. The boxes contain £1, £10, £100, £1000
and £10000 respectively. You have chosen a box and it contains £1000. You have the option
to take that money, or to reject it and open another box instead.

What should you decide to do under the following criteria?

(i) Expected value criterion
(ii) Maximax criterion
(iii) Minimax criterion
(iv) Regret criterion

(i) The expected value if you take the money is £1000 (guaranteed). If you gamble then
each box has probability 1/4, so the expected value is:
(1/4) x 1 + (1/4) x 10 + (1/4) x 100 + (1/4) x 10000,
which makes £2527.25. So you should gamble.
(ii) Be brave and go for the maximum possibility, so gamble.
(iii) Be conservative and avoid the worst outcome, so keep the £1000.
(iv) If you gamble and just get £1 you will regret it by £999. If you don’t gamble and would
have got £10000 you will regret it by £9000. So gamble.

16. The famous Monty Hall problem is as follows:

On a game show there are three closed doors, and only the host Monty knows what is behind
each door. One contains a car and the other two contain goats. Obviously you want to win the
car. You choose a door. One of the other doors is then opened to reveal a goat, leaving two
doors, one with a car and one with a goat. You are then asked whether you want to stay with
the same original choice or switch to the other door.

Are you better to switch, or to stay with original choice? Does it matter?

The crucial aspect here is that the host knows what is behind each door.
With P(1/3) you originally picked the door with the car. The host can open either of the other
two. By staying the same you win, and by switching you lose.
With P(2/3) you originally picked a door with a goat. The host is forced to open the other door
with a goat. By staying the same you lose, and by switching you win.
So the probability of winning by staying the same is 1/3 and by switching the probability is
2/3. Hence you should switch.
This problem is counter-intuitive, in the sense that you feel it should not matter as you have
two doors to choose from, one with a car and one with a goat, but the prior knowledge of the
host and the choices forced upon him affect the probability.

Probability Page 5