9 March 2023

India Strategy
BSE Sensex: 59,806 Nifty-50: 17,590
Refer to our recent Strategy
Gauging the ‘Popularity Quotient’ from a consensus perspective!
note: 3QFY23 review

As a part of our continued effort to provide a broad and informative perspective of the
market, we, in this report, will pore over the Top-100 stocks by market capitalization
taking consensus data sourced from Bloomberg. The basic criterion of our study is that a
minimum of 10 analysts should cover each stock. We will try to uncover: a) which stocks
are the most favored on the street and how they have performed over the last one year,
and b) what is the possible target price upside for the said universe, both at sector and
stock levels. Notably, the Top-100 pack constitutes 68% of India's market capitalization.

India’s sharp outperformance in CY22 has started waning

 Impaired by relatively muted corporate earnings season and severe FII selling
(USD2.5b CYTD), India’s sharp outperformance in CY22 has started fading CYTD.
Corporate earnings were below our expectations in 3QFY23 led by weak demand
and macro headwinds, with Financials and Autos holding the fort once again.
 Slowdown in consumption is a material concern if trends do not reverse
immediately. However, markets are trading flat YTD and valuations are in their
fair value zone with Nifty trading at ~18x FY24E EPS and thus offering room for
modest upside if corporate earnings do not see material downgrades ahead.
 As the third earnings season of FY23 has culminated, we examine the top-100
stocks by market cap from a consensus perspective and gauge their popularity.
Top-100 – Evaluating the ‘Popularity’ quotient
 Analyst sentiment, which is measured by the proportion of BUY/Hold/Sell
ratings, has not changed much over the past year with the percentage of BUY
ratings moderating to 71% from 73% a year ago. Further, the percentage of
Hold & Sell ratings stood at 17%/12% vs. 16%/ 11%, a year ago.
 Sentiments on Capital Goods, Private Banks, Healthcare, Real Estate, and PSU
Consensus sentiments for Top- Banks have been positive with their coverages improving 11%, 8%, 6%, 5% and
100 companies (%) 4% YoY, respectively. Conversely, Metals, Utilities, NBFCs (due to a drop in
coverage of HDFC), Telecom,& Automobiles have taken a hit, with their
Mar-22 Mar-23
73 coverages dropping 10%, 10%, 7%, 5% & 4% YoY, respectively.
71  Among the Top-100 stocks, ICICI Bank (53 analysts cover the stock), Maruti
Suzuki (52 analysts), Bajaj Auto, Axis Bank and Indusind Bank (51 analysts each)
are the most widely covered stocks on the Street. On the other hand, Hindustan
Aeronautics, Abbott India, Max Healthcare, JSW Energy, and Yes Bank are the
least covered stocks.
16 17
11 12  Hindalco, which is covered by 24 analysts, enjoys 100% BUY rating along with
Adani Ports and Max Healthcare (100% each), followed by SBI and L&T (98% each).
 Conversely, Yes Bank (7%), JSW Energy (9%), JSW Steel (19%), Divi’s Labs (20%),
Buy Hold Sell
and Hindustan Zinc (20%) have the lowest percentage of BUY ratings.

Deven Mistry – Research Analyst ([email protected]) | Gautam Duggad – Research Analyst ([email protected])
Aanshul Agarawal – Research Analyst ([email protected])
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 India Strategy | Top-100 consensus analysis

Top-100 target based on Consensus target prices indicate 17% potential upside for the Top-100 stocks
consensus
 Based on the consensus target prices for the available Top-100 companies, the
Top-100 FF Mcap (INRt) potential upside stands at 17% (from the current free float market value of
INR90t to a target market value of INR105t).
105
 Private Banks (+30%), Oil & Gas (+11%), Consumer (+8%), NBFCs (+7%),
Technology (+7%), Automobiles (+6%) and PSU Banks (+5%) are likely to
contribute the most to the potential target upsides of the Top-100 stocks.
 The top-15 stocks are projected to contribute 68% to the potential target price
90 upsides of the Top-100 set. ICICI Bank (+11%), Reliance Industries (+10%), HDFC
Bank (+9%), Infosys (+6%), HDFC (+5%) are the top stocks to contribute the most
with respect to potential target upsides.
 Stocks with the highest target price upsides are UPL (+42%), Zomato (+39%), SBI Life
Insurance (+38%), LIC (+36%), ICICI Pru Life (+35%), and FSN E-Commerce (+35%).
Current Target
 Stocks with the most target price downsides are JSW Energy (-23%), Shree
Cement (-10%), ABB (-5%), Cummins India (-4%), and Berger Paints (-3%).

Note: we calculated the target upside of the said universe by taking target prices
from Bloomberg to arrive at a target market cap based on current number of shares.

Top-100 earnings likely to jump Earnings for the Top-100 set likely to rise 18% over FY23-25E
18% over FY23-25E  Earnings for the Top-100 stocks are likely to jump 18% (accretion of INR3.1t)
Top-100 PAT (INRt)
over FY23-25 based on consensus estimates.
 Private Banks (+15%), Oil & Gas (+12%), PSU Banks (+10%), Auto (+10%), and
11.0 Technology (+9%) are likely to contribute the most to Top-100’s earnings growth.
 Sectors with the highest earnings CAGR are Telecom (+58%), Automobiles
7.9 (+44%), NBFCs (+34%), Real Estate (+28%), and Cement (+25%). Insurance (+4%),
and Utilities (8%) are the sectors to report an earnings growth in single digit
over FY23-25E.
 The top-15 stocks are forecasted to contribute 61% to the earnings growth of
the Top-100 set. Reliance Industries (+7%), HDFC Bank (+6%), HDFC (+6%), SBI
(+6%), Tata Motors (+5%) are the top stocks to contribute the most with respect
to earnings.
FY23E FY25E
 On the other hand, Coal India (-3%), and ONGC (-2%) are likely to have the most
adverse contributions.
 Stocks with the highest earnings growth are Tata Motors (Loss to Profit), Indigo
(Loss to Profit), FSN E-Commerce (+179%), BPCL (+151%), and IOCL (+100%).

Domestic Cyclicals sector gains the most over the last one year
 Over the past year, Nifty-50 and Nifty Midcap-100 indices have been up 11%
and 14%, respectively. While, Nifty Smallcap-100 index has been down 2%.
 PSU Banks, Automobiles, Consumer, Capital Goods, Private Banks, and
Note: Exhibit data for Infrastructure have been the outperformers; while Technology, Media,
consensus has been sourced Healthcare, Utilities, Metals, Oil & Gas, and Telecom have been the
from Bloomberg. All data underperformers.
sourced was as of 8th Mar’23  Of the Top-100 companies, 48 have outperformed the Nifty-50; while 33 stocks
closing. are still trading lower over the last one year.

March 2023 2
 India Strategy | Top-100 consensus analysis

Key charts
Exhibit 1: Consensus sentiments for Exhibit 2: Top-10 popular stocks with Exhibit 3: Bottom-10 stocks in
Top-100 stocks (%) BUY rating popularity with least BUY ratings
Covered by 1-year Covered by 1-year
Sell Company Company
analyst perf. (%) analyst perf. (%)
12%
ICICI Bank 53 31 Hind. Aeronautics 10 116
Maruti Suzuki 52 28 Abbott India 10 16
Bajaj Auto 51 15 Max Healthcare 10 28
Hold Axis Bank 51 28 JSW Energy 11 -7
17%
IndusInd Bk 51 40 Yes Bank 14 31
SBI 50 28 LIC 15 -31
TCS 48 -6 Hindustan Zinc 15 -4
M&M 48 84 Canara Bank 15 49
Buy
71% Hero Motocorp 48 10 Vedanta 16 -25
Infosys 48 -16 Indian Hotels 17 69

Exhibit 4: Stocks with maximum BUY Exhibit 5: Stocks with least BUY ratings Exhibit 6: Top-10 stocks with highest
ratings and their price performances and their price performances upsides and their price performance
BUY 1-year perf BUY 1-year Upside BUY 1-year
Company Company Company
(%) (%) (%) perf (%) (%) (%) perf (%)
Hindalco Inds. 100 -31 Yes Bank 7 31 UPL 42 93 -1
Adani Ports 100 3 JSW Energy 9 -7 Zomato 39 77 -30
Max Healthcare 100 28 JSW Steel 19 7 SBI Life Ins. 38 97 9
SBI 98 28 Divi's Lab. 20 -32 LIC 36 80 -31
L&T 98 31 Hindustan Zinc 20 -4 FSN E-Commerce 35 76 -36
SBI Life Ins. 97 9 Indus Towers 22 -21 ICICI Pru Life 35 78 -9
ICICI Bank 96 31 Pidilite Inds. 24 8 Macrotech 34 76 -10
HDFC 96 25 Wipro 25 -33 Hindalco Inds. 31 100 -31
NTPC 96 34 Shree Cement 28 15 ICICI Lombard 30 81 -10
Axis Bank 96 28 PNB 29 48 Axis Bank 30 96 28

Exhibit 7: Top-10 stocks with the most

downsides Exhibit 8: Best one-year performers Exhibit 9: Worst one-year performers
Upside BUY 1-year 1-year BUY 1-year BUY
Company Company Company
(%) (%) perf (%) perf (%) (%) perf (%) (%)
JSW Energy -23 9 -7 Varun Beverages 122 83 FSN E-Commerce -36 76
Shree Cement -10 28 15 Hind. Aeronautics 116 90 Wipro -33 25
ABB -5 51 58 TVS Motor 107 71 Divi's Lab. -32 20
Cummins India -4 63 77 M&M 84 90 Hindalco Inds. -31 100
Berger Paints -3 35 -8 BOB 79 89 LIC -31 80
Polycab India -1 62 38 Cummins India 77 63 Zomato -30 77
Siemens -1 58 46 ITC 73 95 Tech Mahindra -26 45
Hindustan Zinc 0 20 -4 Indian Hotels 69 88 LTI Mindtree -26 56
JSW Steel 0 19 7 ABB 58 51 Vedanta -25 63
Canara Bank 49 87 Indus Towers -21 22

Note: LIC perf is from its listing price.

March 2023 3
 India Strategy | Top-100 consensus analysis

Top-100 – Evaluating the ‘Popularity’ quotient

ICICI Bank, Maruti Suzuki and Bajaj Auto enjoy the highest coverage on the Street;
while Hindustan Aeronautics, Abbott, Max Healthcare are the least covered stock
 Analyst sentiment, which is measured by the proportion of BUY/Hold/Sell
ratings, has been hit over the past year with the percentage of BUY ratings
moderating to 71% from 73% a year ago. Further, the percentage of Hold rose
to 17% from 16% and Sell ratings climbed to 12% from 11%, a year ago.
 Among the Top-100 stocks, ICICI Bank (53 analysts cover the stock), Maruti
Suzuki (52 analysts), Bajaj Auto, Axis Bank and Indusind Bank (51 analysts each)
are the most widely covered stocks on the Street. On the other hand, Hindustan
Aeronautics, Abbott India, Max Healthcare, JSW Energy, and Yes Bank are the
least covered stocks.
 Hindalco, which is covered by 24 analysts, enjoys 100% BUY rating along with Adani
Ports and Max Healthcare (100% each), followed by SBI and L&T (98% each).
 Conversely, Yes Bank (7%), JSW Energy (9%), JSW Steel (19%), Divi’s Labs (20%),
and Hindustan Zinc (20%) have the lowest percentage of BUY ratings.

Exhibit 10: Popular stocks with coverage data

Covered by Covered by
Company BUY Sell Hold Company BUY Sell Hold
analyst analyst
ICICI Bank 53 51 0 2 Dabur India 43 33 1 9
Maruti Suzuki 52 39 7 6 Dr Reddy's Labs 42 31 3 8
IndusInd Bk 51 44 1 6 Marico 42 28 3 11
Bajaj Auto 51 34 4 13 Cipla 42 30 3 9
Axis Bank 51 49 0 2 LTI Mindtree 41 23 10 8
SBI 50 49 0 1 Britannia Inds. 41 28 2 11
TCS 48 22 11 15 BPCL 38 25 5 8
M&M 48 43 2 3 BOB 38 34 0 4
Hero Motocorp 48 28 8 12 Asian Paints 38 15 12 11
Infosys 48 42 2 4 Nestle India 38 22 6 10
UltraTech Cem. 47 42 3 2 Godrej Consumer 38 30 1 7
Ambuja Cements 47 30 6 11 IOCL 37 24 4 9
HCL Tech. 46 27 3 16 Reliance Inds 37 32 3 2
Shree Cement 46 13 14 19 ITC 37 35 0 2
Ashok Leyland 46 40 1 5 Cholaman. Inv.&Fn 36 29 2 5
HDFC Bank 45 42 0 3 Zydus Life. 36 23 4 9
L&T 45 44 1 0 ABB 35 18 6 11
Eicher Motors 45 31 5 9 Tata Motors 34 27 3 4
TVS Motor 45 32 5 8 SBI Life Ins. 34 33 0 1
Havells India 45 26 5 14 Torrent Pharma 34 23 5 6
Kotak Mah. Bk 44 27 2 15 Bharti Airtel 33 28 3 2
Wipro 44 11 16 17 GAIL 33 26 2 5
Sun Pharma 44 39 1 4 Titan Co. 33 27 3 3
Tech Mahindra 44 20 9 15 Siemens 33 19 5 9
HUL 43 33 2 8 Shriram Finance 33 25 2 6

March 2023 4
 India Strategy | Top-100 consensus analysis

Exhibit 11: Stocks with maximum BUY ratings Exhibit 12: Stocks with a relatively low share of BUY ratings
BUY Sell Hold Covered by % BUY Sell Hold Covered % Up /
Company Company
(%) (%) (%) Analyst Upside (%) (%) (%) by Analyst downside
Hindalco Inds. 100 0 0 24 31 Yes Bank 7 64 29 14 4
Adani Ports 100 0 0 21 13 JSW Energy 9 64 27 11 -23
Max Healthcare 100 0 0 10 17 JSW Steel 19 59 22 32 0
SBI 98 0 2 50 28 Divi's Lab. 20 44 36 25 2
L&T 98 2 0 45 12 Hindustan Zinc 20 67 13 15 0
SBI Life Ins. 97 0 3 34 38 Indus Towers 22 39 39 23 11
ICICI Bank 96 0 4 53 28 Pidilite Inds. 24 48 29 21 3
HDFC 96 0 4 26 14 Wipro 25 36 39 44 6
NTPC 96 0 4 26 13 Shree Cement 28 30 41 46 -10
Axis Bank 96 0 4 51 30 PNB 29 24 47 17 2
Apollo Hospitals 96 4 0 24 21 Avenue Super. 31 38 31 26 16
ITC 95 0 5 37 10 Berger Paints 35 48 17 23 -3
HDFC Bank 93 0 7 45 18 Asian Paints 39 32 29 38 7
UPL 93 4 4 28 42 Tech Mahindra 45 20 34 44 5
Bharat Elect. 90 6 3 31 22 TCS 46 23 31 48 3
Hind. Aeronautics 90 10 0 10 12
M&M 90 4 6 48 21
BOB 89 0 11 38 17
UltraTech Cem. 89 6 4 47 9
Sun Pharma 89 2 9 44 21
Indian Hotels 88 6 6 17 15
Infosys 88 4 8 48 16
Ashok Leyland 87 2 11 46 24
Canara Bank 87 7 7 15 19
Reliance Inds 86 8 5 37 18

Coverages for Capital Goods, Private Banks, Healthcare, and Real Estate
increase; while the same for Metals, Utilities, and NBFCs deteriorate
 Sentiments on Capital Goods, Private Banks, Healthcare, Real Estate, and PSU
Banks have been positive with their coverages improving 11%, 8%, 6%, 5% and
4% YoY, respectively.
 Conversely, Metals, Utilities, NBFCs (due to a drop in coverage of HDFC),
Telecom, Automobiles, Technology, and Oil & Gas have taken a hit, with their
coverages dropping 10%, 10%, 7%, 5%, 4%, 2% and 1% YoY, respectively.

Exhibit 13: Change in coverage over the last 12 months

11 % change in coverage
8
6 5 4 3 2 2 1

-1
-2
-4 -5 -7
-10 -10
Utilities

Metals
Healthcare

Banks-PSU

Telecom

NBFC
Banks-PVT

Auto
Consumer

Cement

Oil & Gas

Real Estate
Cap. Goods

Retail

Technology
Insurance

March 2023 5
 India Strategy | Top-100 consensus analysis

Consensus target prices indicate 17% upside for the Top-100 set
Private Banks, Oil & Gas, and Consumer to contribute ~50 of the Top-100 stocks’
target upsides
 Based on the consensus target prices for the available Top-100 companies, the
potential upside stands at 17% (from the current free float market value of
INR90t to a target market value of INR105t).
 Private Banks (+30%), Oil & Gas (+11%), Consumer (+8%), NBFCs (+7%),
Technology (+7%), Automobiles (+6%) and PSU Banks (+5%) are likely to
contribute the most to the potential target upsides of the Top-100 stocks.
 The top-15 stocks are projected to contribute 68% to the potential target price
upsides of the Top-100 set. ICICI Bank (+11%), Reliance Industries (+10%), HDFC
Bank (+9%), Infosys (+6%), HDFC (+5%) are the top stocks to contribute the most
with respect to potential target upsides.
 Stocks with the highest target price upsides are UPL (+42%), Zomato (+39%), SBI Life
Insurance (+38%), LIC (+36%), ICICI Pru Life (+35%), and FSN E-Commerce (+35%).
 Stocks with the most target price downsides are JSW Energy (-23%), Shree
Cement (-10%), ABB (-5%), Cummins India (-4%), and Berger Paints (-3%).
Top-100 target based on consensus Exhibit 14: Sector wise contributors to the target market-cap increase Top-100 stocks

Top-100 FF Mcap (INRt) TP Delta Contribution (%)

105 30

11
8 7 7
90 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1
Metals
NBFC

Others

Healthcare

Utilities
Banks-PSU

Telecom
Auto
Banks-PVT

Consumer

Technology

Real Estate

Cement
Cap. Goods
Insurance

Retail
Oil & Gas

Current Target

Exhibit 15: Top-15 stocks likely to contribute 68% to the Top-100’s target upside
Current FF Target FF Delta %
Company
Mcap (INR b) Mcap (INR b) Mcap (INR b) Contribution
ICICI Bank 6,085 7,778 1,693 11
Reliance Inds 8,341 9,858 1,516 10
HDFC Bank 7,184 8,483 1,299 9
Infosys 5,436 6,303 867 6
HDFC 4,846 5,543 697 5
Axis Bank 2,330 3,021 691 5
SBI 2,167 2,769 601 4
Kotak Mah. Bk 2,523 3,067 544 4
Bharti Airtel 2,055 2,433 379 3
HUL 2,219 2,597 378 3
ITC 3,458 3,803 345 2
L&T 2,624 2,939 316 2
Bajaj Finance 1,597 1,883 285 2
M&M 1,235 1,490 255 2
Maruti Suzuki 1,156 1,390 235 2
Total of top-15 53,255 63,357 10,102 68
Total 89,656 1,04,592 14,937

March 2023 6
 India Strategy | Top-100 consensus analysis

Exhibit 16: Top stocks with the maximum upsides

Company Upside (%) BUY (%) 1-year perf (%)
UPL 42 93 -1
Zomato 39 77 -30
SBI Life Ins. 38 97 9
LIC 36 80 -31
FSN E-Commerce 35 76 -36
ICICI Pru Life 35 78 -9
Macrotech 34 76 -10
Hindalco Inds. 31 100 -31
ICICI Lombard 30 81 -10
Axis Bank 30 96 28
Interglobe Aviat 29 77 19
HDFC Life Ins. 29 81 -3
Vedanta 29 63 -25
Cipla 29 71 -10
ICICI Bank 28 96 31
SBI 28 98 28
SBI Cards 25 75 -4
Info Edge 25 58 -20
Ashok Leyland 24 87 47
IndusInd Bk 24 86 40
DLF 24 86 10
Shriram Finance 23 76 22
Bharat Elect. 22 90 35
Kotak Mah. Bk 22 61 1
PI Industries 21 75 28
M&M 21 90 84
Sun Pharma 21 89 12
Apollo Hospitals 21 96 -7
Maruti Suzuki 20 75 28
Titan Co. 19 82 1

Exhibit 17: Stocks with the maximum downsides

Company Downside (%) BUY (%) 1-year perf (%)
JSW Energy -23 9 -7
Shree Cement -10 28 15
ABB -5 51 58
Cummins India -4 63 77
Berger Paints -3 35 -8
Polycab India -1 62 38
Siemens -1 58 46
Hindustan Zinc 0 20 -4

March 2023 7
 India Strategy | Top-100 consensus analysis

Earnings for the Top-100 set likely to rise 18% over FY23-25E
Top five sectors likely to contribute more than half of the earnings growth
 Earnings for the Top-100 stocks are likely to jump 18% (INR3.1t) over FY23-25
based on consensus estimates.
 Private Banks (+15%), Oil & Gas (+12%), PSU Banks (+10%), Auto (+10%), and
Technology (+9%) are likely to contribute the most to Top-100’s earnings growth.
 Sectors with the highest earnings CAGR are Telecom (+58%), Automobiles
(+44%), NBFCs (+34%), Real Estate (+28%), and Cement (+25%). Insurance (+4%),
and Utilities (8%) are the sectors to report an earnings growth in single digit
over FY23-25E.
 The top-15 stocks are forecasted to contribute 61% to the earnings growth of
the Top-100 set. Reliance Industries (+7%), HDFC Bank (+6%), HDFC (+6%), SBI
(+6%), Tata Motors (+5%) are the top stocks to contribute the most with respect
to earnings.
 On the other hand, Coal India (-3%), and ONGC (-2%) are likely to have the most
adverse contributions.
 Stocks with the highest earnings growth are Tata Motors (Loss to Profit), Indigo
(Loss to Profit), FSN E-Commerce (+179%), BPCL (+151%), and IOCL (+100%).

Top-100 earnings CAGR (%) Exhibit 18: Sector wise contributors to incremental earnings of Top-100 stocks

Top-100 PAT (INRt)

PAT Contribution (FY23-25) (%)
11.0 15
12
10 10
7.9 9 9
6
6 5
4
3 2 2 2
1 1 1
Metals

Others

Utilities
NBFC

Healthcare
Auto

Banks-PSU

Telecom

Cement
Consumer
Banks-PVT

Cap. Goods

Retail

Real Estate
Technology

Insurance
Oil & Gas

FY23E FY25E

March 2023 8
 India Strategy | Top-100 consensus analysis

Exhibit 19: Contribution of Top-15 stocks to the incremental Exhibit 20: Contribution of Bottom-15 stocks to the
earnings of Top-100 stocks over FY23-25 incremental earnings of Top-100 stocks over FY23-25

PAT Contribution (FY23-25) (%) PAT Contribution (FY23-25) (%)

7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
6
6 6
5
5 4 4
4
3 3 2 2 2 2
-2.0
-2.6

Coal India

Tata Power
Hindustan Zinc

Max Healthcare
ICICI Pru Life

Cummins India
Abbott India

United Spirits
ONGC

Trent

Berger Paints
LIC

ABB
Polycab India
FSN E-Commerce
BPCL
TCS

Axis Bank
IOCL
Reliance Inds

Bharti Airtel
Tata Motors

ICICI Bank

Infosys

PNB
Maruti Suzuki
HDFC
HDFC Bank
SBI

JSW Steel

Exhibit 21: Sector wise earnings CAGR (%)

PAT CAGR (FY23-25) (%)

58

44
37
34
28 25
22
19 18 18 15 15 14 13 12
8
4

Metals
Others

Utilities
NBFC

Healthcare
Telecom

Banks-PSU
Auto

Cement
Real Estate

Banks-PVT

Consumer
Cap. Goods
Retail

Technology

Insurance
Oil & Gas

Exhibit 22: Top-15 stocks with the highest earnings CAGR (%) Exhibit 23: Bottom-15 stocks with lowest earnings CAGR (%)
PAT CAGR (FY23-25) (%) PAT CAGR (FY23-25) (%)
LP
LP
7 8 8 9 10 11 11
5 5 5
179 0 1
151
100 98
72 71 70 58 56 -7
54 54 50 42
-15
Loss
BPCL
IOCL

Shree Cement
Tata Motors

PNB

Samvardhana Moth.
Bharti Airtel
Indus Towers
Interglobe Aviat

Info Edge

HDFC
JSW Steel

Yes Bank

Ashok Leyland
FSN E-Commerce

Zomato
Coal India

GAIL
Hindustan Zinc

Tata Power

Zydus Life.
Hind.Aeronautics
Dr Reddy's Labs
Ambuja Cements
Hindalco Inds.
ONGC

LIC
Power Grid Corp

ITC
Shriram Finance

March 2023 9
 India Strategy | Top-100 consensus analysis

Domestic Cyclicals sector gains the most over the last one year
 Over the past year, Nifty-50 and Nifty Midcap-100 indices have been up 11%
and 14%, respectively. While, Nifty Smallcap-100 index has been down 2%.
 PSU Banks, Automobiles, Consumer, Capital Goods, Private Banks, and
Infrastructure have been the outperformers; while Technology, Media,
Healthcare, Utilities, Metals, Oil & Gas, and Telecom have been the
underperformers.
 Of the Top-100 companies, 48 have outperformed the Nifty-50; while 33 stocks
are still trading lower over the last one year.
Exhibit 24: Midcap index has outperformed Nifty; PSU Banks, Automobiles, Consumer,
Capital Goods, and Private Banks have been the top performers over the last one year

12-month performance (%)

58

36 34 34
26
18 14 13 11
0

-2 -4 -6 -6 -8 -9 -14 -14

Utilities
Nifty-50

Metal

Healthcare
Smallcap 100

Telecom
Auto

Capital Goods

Midcap 100
Consumer

Media
Finance

Infra

Real Estate

Technology
Bank PSU

Bank PVT

Oil & Gas

Exhibit 25: Top-100 – Top gainers over the last one year (%)
122 116 107
84 79 77 73 69
58
49 48 47 46 42 40 39 39 38 37 35
Siemens
TVS Motor

M&M

PNB

Eicher Motors

Zydus Life.
ABB
Hind.Aeronautics

Cummins India
BOB

Indian Hotels

Ashok Leyland

IndusInd Bk

Britannia Inds.

Ambuja Cements

Bharat Elect.
ITC

Canara Bank

Polycab India
Varun Beverages

Exhibit 26: Top-100 – Top laggards over the last one year (%)

-10 -10 -10 -9 -8

-12
-18 -16 -16
-21 -20
-26 -26 -25
-32 -31 -31 -30
-36 -33
Wipro

Zomato

Vedanta

Macrotech
LTI Mindtree

Avenue Super.

Tata Steel
Tech Mahindra

Indus Towers

Cipla

ICICI Pru Life

Divi's Lab.

Info Edge

Infosys
Hindalco Inds.

ICICI Lombard
LIC

ONGC

Berger Paints
FSN E-Commerce

March 2023 10
 India Strategy | Top-100 consensus analysis

Exhibit 27: Evaluating the popularity quotient of Top-100 stocks

Weight CMP TP % Up / Current Analyst Rating ANR (%) 1 year
Company Sector (%) (INR) (INR) downside Buy Sell Hold Total Buy Sell Hold Total Perf (%)
Ashok Leyland Automobiles 0.2 146 181 24 40 1 5 46 87 2 11 100 47
Bajaj Auto Automobiles 0.5 3,811 4,241 11 34 4 13 51 67 8 25 100 15
Eicher Motors Automobiles 0.5 3,204 3,760 17 31 5 9 45 69 11 20 100 42
Hero Motocorp Automobiles 0.4 2,478 2,926 18 28 8 12 48 58 17 25 100 10
M&M Automobiles 1.4 1,290 1,556 21 43 2 3 48 90 4 6 100 84
Maruti Suzuki Automobiles 1.3 8,694 10,460 20 39 7 6 52 75 13 12 100 28
Samvardhana Moth. Automobiles 0.2 84 96 15 15 3 3 21 71 14 14 100 -1
Tata Motors Automobiles 0.9 439 514 17 27 3 4 34 79 9 12 100 12
TVS Motor Automobiles 0.3 1,110 1,178 6 32 5 8 45 71 11 18 100 107
Axis Bank Banks-Private 2.6 861 1,116 30 49 0 2 51 96 0 4 100 28
HDFC Bank Banks-Private 8.0 1,631 1,925 18 42 0 3 45 93 0 7 100 23
ICICI Bank Banks-Private 6.8 872 1,115 28 51 0 2 53 96 0 4 100 31
IndusInd Bk Banks-Private 0.9 1,174 1,452 24 44 1 6 51 86 2 12 100 40
Kotak Mah. Bk Banks-Private 2.8 1,740 2,115 22 27 2 15 44 61 5 34 100 1
SBI Cards Banks-Private 0.2 750 940 25 21 3 4 28 75 11 14 100 -4
Yes Bank Banks-Private 0.2 17 17 4 1 9 4 14 7 64 29 100 31
BOB Banks-PSU 0.4 174 204 17 34 0 4 38 89 0 11 100 79
Canara Bank Banks-PSU 0.2 312 370 19 13 1 1 15 87 7 7 100 49
PNB Banks-PSU 0.2 52 53 2 5 4 8 17 29 24 47 100 48
SBI Banks-PSU 2.4 565 722 28 49 0 1 50 98 0 2 100 28
HDFC Life Ins. Insurance 0.5 495 640 29 25 3 3 31 81 10 10 100 -3
ICICI Lombard Insurance 0.3 1,093 1,421 30 22 2 3 27 81 7 11 100 -10
ICICI Pru Life Insurance 0.2 407 549 35 25 3 4 32 78 9 13 100 -9
LIC Insurance 0.2 603 820 36 12 0 3 15 80 0 20 100 -31
SBI Life Ins. Insurance 0.6 1,129 1,559 38 33 0 1 34 97 0 3 100 9
Bajaj Finance NBFC 1.8 5,997 7,067 18 23 7 3 33 70 21 9 100 -3
Cholaman. Inv.&Fn NBFC 0.3 767 868 13 29 2 5 36 81 6 14 100 25
HDFC NBFC 5.4 2,679 3,065 14 25 0 1 26 96 0 4 100 25
Shriram Finance NBFC 0.4 1,270 1,567 23 25 2 6 33 76 6 18 100 22
ABB Capital Goods 0.2 3,380 3,225 -5 18 6 11 35 51 17 31 100 58
Bharat Elect. Capital Goods 0.4 96 117 22 28 2 1 31 90 6 3 100 35
Cummins India Capital Goods 0.3 1,669 1,604 -4 20 6 6 32 63 19 19 100 77
Havells India Capital Goods 0.3 1,222 1,336 9 26 5 14 45 58 11 31 100 14
Hind. Aeronautics Capital Goods 0.3 2,863 3,196 12 9 1 0 10 90 10 0 100 116
L&T Capital Goods 2.9 2,171 2,432 12 44 1 0 45 98 2 0 100 31
Siemens Capital Goods 0.3 3,287 3,266 -1 19 5 9 33 58 15 27 100 46
Ambuja Cements Cement 0.3 392 436 11 30 6 11 47 64 13 23 100 39
Shree Cement Cement 0.4 26,015 23,540 -10 13 14 19 46 28 30 41 100 15
UltraTech Cem. Cement 0.9 7,267 7,923 9 42 3 2 47 89 6 4 100 25
Asian Paints Consumer 1.4 2,860 3,053 7 15 12 11 38 39 32 29 100 5
Berger Paints Consumer 0.2 587 567 -3 8 11 4 23 35 48 17 100 -8
Britannia Inds. Consumer 0.6 4,340 4,906 13 28 2 11 41 68 5 27 100 39
Dabur India Consumer 0.3 532 621 17 33 1 9 43 77 2 21 100 2
Godrej Consumer Consumer 0.4 918 1,024 12 30 1 7 38 79 3 18 100 31
HUL Consumer 2.5 2,485 2,909 17 33 2 8 43 77 5 19 100 28
ITC Consumer 3.9 392 432 10 35 0 2 37 95 0 5 100 73
Marico Consumer 0.3 496 562 13 28 3 11 42 67 7 26 100 1
Nestle India Consumer 0.7 18,518 20,982 13 22 6 10 38 58 16 26 100 7
Pidilite Inds. Consumer 0.4 2,348 2,421 3 5 10 6 21 24 48 29 100 8
Tata Consumer Consumer 0.5 721 838 16 20 1 4 25 80 4 16 100 5
United Spirits Consumer 0.2 751 847 13 14 3 7 24 58 13 29 100 -5
Varun Beverages Consumer 0.4 1,350 1,466 9 15 0 3 18 83 0 17 100 122
Abbott India Healthcare 0.1 20,615 21,036 2 6 2 2 10 60 20 20 100 16
Apollo Hospitals Healthcare 0.5 4,376 5,275 21 23 1 0 24 96 4 0 100 -7
Cipla Healthcare 0.5 877 1,128 29 30 3 9 42 71 7 21 100 -10

March 2023 11
 India Strategy | Top-100 consensus analysis

Weight CMP TP % Up / Current Analyst Rating ANR (%) 1 year

Company Sector (%) (INR) (INR) downside Buy Sell Hold Total Buy Sell Hold Total Perf (%)
Divi's Lab. Healthcare 0.4 2,835 2,882 2 5 11 9 25 20 44 36 100 -32
Dr Reddy's Labs Healthcare 0.6 4,416 4,898 11 31 3 8 42 74 7 19 100 14
Max Healthcare Healthcare 0.4 438 514 17 10 0 0 10 100 0 0 100 28
Sun Pharma Healthcare 1.2 958 1,155 21 39 1 4 44 89 2 9 100 12
Torrent Pharma Healthcare 0.2 1,511 1,718 14 23 5 6 34 68 15 18 100 10
Zydus Life. Healthcare 0.1 471 496 5 23 4 9 36 64 11 25 100 37
Coal India Metals 0.5 225 250 11 15 5 4 24 63 21 17 100 19
Hindalco Inds. Metals 0.7 408 534 31 24 0 0 24 100 0 0 100 -31
Hindustan Zinc Metals 0.1 310 310 0 3 10 2 15 20 67 13 100 -4
Jindal Steel Metals 0.2 575 651 13 17 5 4 26 65 19 15 100 30
JSW Steel Metals 0.7 675 675 0 6 19 7 32 19 59 22 100 7
Tata Steel Metals 1.0 107 125 17 24 3 5 32 75 9 16 100 -16
Vedanta Metals 0.4 285 368 29 10 2 4 16 63 13 25 100 -25
BPCL Oil & Gas 0.4 326 382 17 25 5 8 38 66 13 21 100 -5
GAIL Oil & Gas 0.3 111 114 2 26 2 5 33 79 6 15 100 6
IOCL Oil & Gas 0.3 79 88 12 24 4 9 37 65 11 24 100 1
ONGC Oil & Gas 0.7 158 180 14 22 2 4 28 79 7 14 100 -12
Reliance Inds Oil & Gas 9.3 2,417 2,857 18 32 3 2 37 86 8 5 100 8
DLF Real Estate 0.3 363 449 24 19 1 2 22 86 5 9 100 10
Macrotech Real Estate 0.1 932 1,254 34 13 1 3 17 76 6 18 100 -10
Avenue Super. Retail 0.5 3,390 3,916 16 8 10 8 26 31 38 31 100 -18
Titan Co. Retail 1.1 2,397 2,855 19 27 3 3 33 82 9 9 100 1
Trent Retail 0.3 1,343 1,469 9 13 3 1 17 76 18 6 100 25
HCL Tech. Technology 1.3 1,121 1,160 4 27 3 16 46 59 7 35 100 -5
Infosys Technology 6.1 1,493 1,731 16 42 2 4 48 88 4 8 100 -16
LTI Mindtree Technology 0.5 4,781 4,834 1 23 10 8 41 56 24 20 100 -26
TCS Technology 3.9 3,390 3,509 3 22 11 15 48 46 23 31 100 -6
Tech Mahindra Technology 0.7 1,078 1,127 5 20 9 15 44 45 20 34 100 -26
Wipro Technology 0.6 393 417 6 11 16 17 44 25 36 39 100 -33
Bharti Airtel Telecom 2.3 767 908 18 28 3 2 33 85 9 6 100 12
Indus Towers Telecom 0.1 161 179 11 5 9 9 23 22 39 39 100 -21
JSW Energy Utilities 0.1 278 214 -23 1 7 3 11 9 64 27 100 -7
NTPC Utilities 0.9 179 202 13 25 0 1 26 96 0 4 100 34
Power Grid Corp Utilities 0.9 228 247 8 19 0 4 23 83 0 17 100 7
Tata Power Utilities 0.4 211 230 9 12 8 3 23 52 35 13 100 -7
Adani Ports Others 0.6 712 803 13 21 0 0 21 100 0 0 100 3
FSN E-Commerce Others 0.2 145 195 35 16 3 2 21 76 14 10 100 -36
Indian Hotels Others 0.3 327 377 15 15 1 1 17 88 6 6 100 69
Info Edge Others 0.3 3,502 4,377 25 14 4 6 24 58 17 25 100 -20
Interglobe Aviat Others 0.2 1,902 2,461 29 20 3 3 26 77 12 12 100 19
PI Industries Others 0.3 3,121 3,767 21 21 2 5 28 75 7 18 100 28
Polycab India Others 0.1 3,092 3,062 -1 18 5 6 29 62 17 21 100 38
SRF Others 0.4 2,307 2,740 19 25 2 3 30 83 7 10 100 5
UPL Others 0.4 717 1,018 42 26 1 1 28 93 4 4 100 -1
Zomato Others 0.2 55 76 39 20 3 3 26 77 12 12 100 -30
Top-100 100 17 2308 388 553 3249 71 12 17 100

March 2023 12
 REPORT GALLERY India Strategy | Review 3QFY23

RECENT STRATEGY/THEMATIC REPORTS

February 2023 12
 India Strategy | Top-100 consensus analysis

NOTES

March 2023 14
 India Strategy | Top-100 consensus analysis

Explanation of Investment Rating

Investment Rating Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY >=15%
SELL < - 10%
NEUTRAL > - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation

*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within following 30
days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.

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March 2023 15
 India Strategy | Top-100 consensus analysis

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March 2023 16