Advances in Plants & Agriculture Research

Review Article Open Access

Impact of global climate change on economy of

Pakistan: how to ensure sustainable food and energy
production
Abstract Volume 5 Issue 2 - 2016

In this paper we present the changing global environment and its potential impacts on
sustainable food and energy production at global level, particularly in Pakistan. The Sabahat Zahra,1 Masooma Batool,2 Quratul
food and energy related-economic sector has been subjected to negative consequences Ain Bashir3
due to recent extreme changes in weather conditions, particularly in developing 1
Molecular and Environmental Plant Sciences department, Texas
countries. Besides continuous modifications in weather, population is also increasing A&M University, USA
by time, therefore it is necessary to take special steps and start effective initiatives to 2
Development Economics, University of Agriculture, Pakistan
cope with the challenges of food and energy security to fight hunger and for economic 3
Plant Breeding and Genetics department, University of
stability of country. This paper presents a framework-plan and recommendations for Agriculture, Pakistan
implementation needed to mitigate the potential threats due to global climate change
sustainable food and energy production under climate change in the country. Correspondence: Sabahat Zahra, Graduate student, Molecular
and Environmental Plant Sciences Department, College Station,
Keywords: global climate change, Pakistan, food security, energy security Texas, USA, Email [email protected]

Received: February 25, 2016 | Published: November 23,

2016

Introduction is an assessment of the current situation of global climate change and

its impacts on Pakistan. It will review the direct and indirect effects
Changing climate is a potential driver of change in sustainable of changing climate on food and energy security and sustainability of
food and energy production. It directly and indirectly affects food and natural resources. This study deals with the climatic impacts on socio-
energy security by threatening food production and end use quality. economic factors, while considering the importance of agriculture and
Moreover, there is a gradual decrease or loss of natural resources of energy in the economy and its contribution in country’s progress. It
food and energy as a result of natural disasters, along with climate analyzes the efficient use of natural resources, loss of natural resources,
change. In recent years, Pakistan has faced overwhelming losses due and increasing demands of water and energy with respect to climate
to only floods that have negatively impacted infrastructure and the changes. In addition to risk assessment due to global climate change
agriculture sector in Pakistan. In 2010 alone, those losses exceeded and potential threats to Pakistan, this paper provides a framework-
US$ 9.6 billion. Since 2010, five consecutive floods resulted in plan for implementation needed in a scenario for sustainable food and
more than US$25 billion of economic loss in damages to different energy production under climate change in the country.
sectors like agriculture, irrigation, public infrastructure, health and
educational facilities, etc. Industries associated with cotton, which is Objectives
the main cash crop in the country, are among the most affected. In
The main objective of this study is to assist in describing a
addition to severe weather modifications, increasing population and
framework that could be implemented to determine the socio-
urbanization are also contributing to security issues, including, but
economic impacts of continuous severe changes in weather on food,
not limited to issues of adequate food, production supply, and poverty
water and energy.
control. According to the United Nations forecast, world’s population
is expected to increase from 7.2 billion today to 8.1 billion in 2025. In our study, we shall present a scenario to deal with the following
Likewise, Pakistan is also facing the same situation of increasing main challenges;
population and climate change impacts on economy. Severe increase
in temperature and heat waves has also negative impacts on food 1. Reducing the negative impacts of climate change food and energy
production as well as energy sustainability. Energy (in terms of 2. Agricultural production sustainability and rural development
electricity) consumption has grown up than the production potential of
the country as a consequence of increasing warm weather. Ultimately 3. Promoting modern technology and productivity growth
prices gone up when there is more consumption than production. 4. Strengthening the farming sector for trade markets and inputs
Therefore, all these aspects of climate change are interrelated with
socio-economic issues. There is a need to develop long term policies 5. Efficient use and conservation of natural resources
on regional and national levels for maintainable economic growth. 6. Developing long-term shared capacity for strategic planning
Scope and significance of research Outcome
The research that we have conducted and presented in this paper This study will be helpful in developing a scenario for adequate

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Impact of global climate change on economy of Pakistan: how to ensure sustainable food and energy Copyright:
©2016 Zahra et al. 509
production

food production and supply, efficient water conservation and its use, are an increase in energy consumption in residential, commercial, and
and sustainable energy production under changing climate; ultimately industry sectors for different purposes such as for space cooling in
it will have a positive impact with respect to socio-economic response to increased temperature and industrial process cooling (in
development. thermal power plants and steel mills), refrigeration, pumping water
for municipal and agricultural irrigation. Energy delivery and fuel
Review of literature types such as electricity use for air conditioning and use of natural
gas for heating are also affected. The idea of energy security relies on
Global climate change
following three stages defined by Martín et al.3
According to Wheeler,1 climate change can be the result of natural
a. Availability and adequate supply of energy to meet increasing
causes, human activities, and the emission of greenhouse gases such as
demand
carbon dioxide and methane and changes in land use. Climate change
brings modifications in duration and intensity of weather conditions b. Accessible energy resources
by creating warmer temperatures, changes to rainfall pattern, and
increased frequency and severity. The Fifth Assessment Report of c. Potential of guaranteed fuel supply without any disturbance by
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change describes a clear external factors.
human influence on climate behavior. This report states that: “Climate Wilbanks et al.,4 described that the most remarkable potential
change will amplify existing risks and create new risks for natural and impacts of climate change are as follows:
humans”.2 Risks associated with climate change can be due to harsh
weather conditions such as severe heat waves, excessive precipitation, i. Increase in energy consumption for cooling purposes in residential,
and continuous flooding. The intensity of heat waves has increased in commercial, and industrial areas.
large parts of Europe, Asia, and Australia. Similarly, the occurrence of ii. High electricity consumption for residential and commercial
heavy precipitation events has also increased in land. refrigeration
Economic related impact of changing climate in iii. Increase in energy supply to such resources that are climate
Pakistan responsive, for example pumping water for irrigated agriculture
and municipal uses
Food: Food security is primarily related to crop production and food
accessibility; both of these elements are directly affected by climate iv. Changes in the form of energy use and its type such as use of
change. Thus, climate change is a main factor determining global, electricity for air conditioning and natural gas usage for heating
national, and regional food security. According to DailyTimes Report, purpose.
(April 16 2015), TheClimate Change Federal Minister, Senator,
Mushahid Ullah Khan recalled and warned that natural calamities v. Changes in energy consumption in that climate sensitive sectors
would show increased frequency in the country. The one single that play role in the economy, such as transportation, construction
event of devastating 2010 flooding eroded away 6 percent of our and agriculture.
GDP. The World Wide Fund for Nature-Pakistan (WWF-Pakistan), According to National Economic & Environmental Development
in collaboration with the London School of Economics-Political Study Report,5 during 2008-2009, Pakistan’s net energy consumption
Sciences and Lahore University of Management Sciences presented was 37.3million tonnes. This energy consumption was met from
a report and highlighted the issue of climate change in Pakistan and different sources including gas (43.4%), oil (29%), electricity
its impact on agriculture and food security. According to this report, (15.3%), coal (10.4%), and LPG (1.5%). All of these energy sources
changing climate will directly affect agricultural productivity. By collectively account for 51% of the national greenhouse gas emission.
2040, an increase in average temperature of 0.5 degree Celsius is In contrast to last ten years, use of petroleum has increased by 0.5%
expected nationwide, with 8-10 percent loss in terms of all crops per annum, gas by 6.8%, electricity by 5%, and coal by 12.5% per
corresponding to Pakistani Rupees 30,000 per acre. annum. Whereas, in the last five years there has been an increase in
The 2014 German Watch Index, a German-based prestigious gas consumption by 9%, an increase in coal consumption of 1.5%, and
think-tank on climate change, reported Pakistan as among top ten a reduction in oil consumption by 9.5%.
most vulnerable countries in the world. Only during 2010, the flood
Methodology
resulted in 6 percent loss or country’s GDP. A joint study by Global
Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) and Pakistan Meteorological The present study is primarily based on literature studies; figures
Department (PMD) about future scenarios in context of climate change and facts have been referred from secondary data. Typical sources
in Pakistan revealed that there are significant changes in temperature of study are reports of international institutes and organizations,
and increasing trend in both minimum and maximum extremes over publications by government sectors and non-government platforms,
the region. Therefore, in the scenario of high vulnerability to severe research articles, media, and internet resources. Further, data from
impacts of climate change related to food security and sustainable assessment reports and official documents issued by different state
energy production, a policy document as a framework has highlighted department working on climate change and its relation with socio-
the necessary adaptations for various sectors such as agriculture, economic aspects in the country has also been included in this paper. The
water, energy, and livestock. (GCISC & PMD and joint report on documents and reports were obtained from; German Watch Index, the
climate change 2007). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Government
of Environment and Climate Change; Ministry of National Food
Energy; Climate change has direct consequences on energy with
Security & Research, Finance state department, Food, Agriculture &
respect to its use and production. The main effects of changing climate
Livestock Division, Pakistan Flood Commission, Pakistan Agriculture

Citation: Zahra S, Batool M, Bashir QA. Impact of global climate change on economy of Pakistan: how to ensure sustainable food and energy production. Adv
Plants Agric Res. 2016;5(2):508‒513. DOI: 10.15406/apar.2016.05.00177
Impact of global climate change on economy of Pakistan: how to ensure sustainable food and energy Copyright:
©2016 Zahra et al. 510
production

Research Council and Pakistan Planning Commission. In addition, the Climate change is increasing vulnerability all over the world and
reports, documents, and policy briefs obtained from different NGOs people are facing severe effects of variable environments at the global
working in Pakistan and UN organizations were also consulted. This level. Extreme weather conditions have led to big losses in terms of
study consists of different sections to analyze the impacts of climate increased death rate and economy damages. Changes in climate can
change in recent years and the status of Pakistan with respect to its shift the seasonal crop pattern; thus, resulting in delayed planting
consequences on food, energy, and natural resources. The first section and harvesting. Elevated temperature and shortages of adequate
of this study is about the background information of the problem being water may affect the productivity of crops and livestock. The food
studied. Second, methodology of current research and sources of security threats related to production pattern and performance impacts
literature review are mentioned. Third, the pattern of climate change will likely cause risks for the livelihood of small scale farmer and
in the world is described and countries that are most affected with this producers in developing countries, who are less able to cope with these
change are listed on the basis of different variables (especially food harsh climatic changes; thus, their safety and welfare is compromised.
insecurity and GDP). It provides the analysis of economic losses due
to climate change globally and particularly in Pakistan. The fourth Socio-economic losses to most recently climate
section provides overviews of potential threats to agriculture, energy, change-affected countries
and water sector due to extreme temperature and floods in relation According to global climate change risks index,6 Philippines,
to Pakistan. The last part of this study is focused on conclusions and Cambodia, and India were the most affected countries, while Pakistan
recommendations, based on potential impacts of climatic change and was ranked 9th in 2013 (Table 1).
strategies needed to develop as a future scenario, in light of available
resources.
Table 1 The climate risk index for 2013: The 10 most affected countries

Deaths per Losses per Human

Ranking CRI Death Absolute losses (in
Country 100,000 unit GDP development
2013 (2012) score toll million US$ PPP
inhabitants in % index10
1 Philippines 2.17 6479 6.65 24538.56 3.82 117
2 Cambodia 6.67 184 1.22 1495.52 3.24 136
3 India 12.67 7437 0.6 15147.02 0.22 135
4 Mexico 15 224 0.19 10589.7 0.51 71
St. Vincent and
5 15.33 9 8.18 96.58 8.33 91
the Grenadines
6 Pakistan 15.5 301 0.16 5419.77 0.65 146
7 Lao PDR 17.67 23 0.34 263.51 0.83 139
8 Vietnam 17.83 152 0.17 2397.04 0.5 121
9 Argentina 20.33 122 0.29 2010 0.22 49
10 Mozambique 21.67 119 0.46 88.21 0.33 178

Losses from natural disasters past few years, Pakistan has faced overwhelming losses due to only
floods. In 2010 alone, those losses exceeded US$ 9.6 billion. Since
Natural disasters are creating alarming situations globally by 2010, five consecutive floods resulted in more than US$25 billion
disturbing ecosystem, in addition to limiting water supply and land of economic loss in damages to different sectors like agriculture,
use for agricultural purposes. The consequences of natural disasters irrigation, public infrastructure, health and educational facilities,
are; reduced soil nutrients, soil erosion, desertification, and depletion etc. (Government of Pakistan Climate Change Division Pakistan,
of natural water resources. Biodiversity is also getting affected by November 2013).
climate change conditions and human behavior like urbanization,
deforestation, and pollution etc. Gene pool diversity, which is a key Future climate change in Pakistan and expected
tool for improving agricultural products, is decreasing in natural consequences
ecosystem due to modernization in agriculture, natural disasters,
changes in climate and human habits, and increasing population size. According to Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery
Pakistan has been facing continuous threats and damages because of organization (GFDRR) temperature will be increased by 1.4 to
natural disasters like earthquakes, intense heat waves, and flooding 3.7°C in the south and coastal regions of Pakistan by 2060s. Rainfall
in recent years. Since 2010 to onward, the country has had to deal forecasts vary from region to region and season to season. Heavy
with the consequences of severe flooding. Even as recently as 2015, rain falls may increase in proportion, resulting in severe damages to
flood warnings have been issued in Punjab. These natural devastating infrastructure and agriculture sector particularly.
conditions are likely to cause big economic loss by destroying the So, it can be concluded that Pakistan can suffer high extreme
infrastructure and imposing severe impacts on food security. During weather changes. As a consequence of these uncertain weather

Citation: Zahra S, Batool M, Bashir QA. Impact of global climate change on economy of Pakistan: how to ensure sustainable food and energy production. Adv
Plants Agric Res. 2016;5(2):508‒513. DOI: 10.15406/apar.2016.05.00177
Impact of global climate change on economy of Pakistan: how to ensure sustainable food and energy Copyright:
©2016 Zahra et al. 511
production

conditions, crop production will be affected directly. There would be ii. Assessing and monitoring the condition of global climate system
a serious reduction in adequate food production and change in energy and its flexibility
production and demand. A Brochure on climate change by Pakistan
iii. Supporting the attributions of climate change and its predictions
Institute of Development Economics describes that due to increase in
temperature growing season for major cereal crops will be declined iv. Spreading the information of global climate change at regional and
in all agricultural zones of Pakistan, following 6-11 % reduction in local level
wheat yield and 15-18% reduction in yield of basmati rice by year
2080. While livestock production could reduce by 20-30% due to v. Enabling characterization of severe events having vital impacts
increase in temperature pushing prices high. and necessary adaptations in response to these impacts

Sustainable Food and Energy Production Policy; To

Feed and Fuel the Future
It is being considered that the rate of burden on natural resources-
land, water, biodiversity, energy will be somewhat moderated in the
next 50 years as compared to past 50 years. However, there will be
contradicting situation in case of food and biofuel due to environmental
degradation and increasing population. Just satisfactory expected
food and feed demand will require 70 percent increase in global food
production [7]. Due to continuous climatic change and its impacts on
food production and accessibility, developing countries are subjected
to negative impacts where food insecurity already exists. To meet the
challenges of food security in response to projecting demand, there is
Figure 1 Scheme of assessing climate change impacts for different time
need of an action plan to ensure the availability of adequate food to
periods in different levels.
people in the country. In developing countries, the agriculture sector
must be given more priority in the field of research, development, and Model to monitor climate at national and regional
extension services. level in Pakistan
Monitoring of climate system Development of climate models and collaboration of different
international and national institutes and organizational bodies should
For achieving the goal of sustainable food production and to feed
be made possible for the analysis of climate change associated risks,
the increasing population in future, collaborative work is necessary
particularly to food and energy.
between Government, Research institutes, and international
organizations. The most important component of this scenario is to create a. The concerned climate change assessment
effective links with global markets and the international trade system model should have main two characteristics:
to have access to stable food and energy supply through a framework. Ability to develop Institutional capacity of Global Change Impact
Long term policy and framework for sustainable food production Studies Centre (GCISC) and other relevant organizations to
mainly require; develop future climate modifications at national and at farmers and
local planners scale according to regional data.
i. More investment in agriculture sector to enhance production
potential, b. Use of this information for decision and policy making step in
agriculture and energy sector.
ii. Introduction and use of modern technology,
Following are the few examples of implementing institutions:
iii. Support to farmers and effective extension services, and
i. FAO- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
iv. Linking global trade markets to national sectors.
ii. IFPRI- International Food Policy Research Institute
The framework should include essential factors and variables that
will be considered for adjustment of food and energy system in climate iii. International and National Energy and Organizations Institutes
change. These basic factors are Greenhouse Gases concentration
in the atmosphere, elevating average, minimum and maximum iv. GCOS- Global Climate Observing System
temperature, changes in precipitation, increasing drought conditions, v. International and National Agriculture and Engineering
modifications in rain pattern, continuous and numerous flooding and Universities and Research Institutes
storms, and significant changes in duration of growing seasons (Figure
1). The GCOS and its affiliated institutions give support to different vi. Pakistan Meteorological department
organizations and Programs, such as the United Nations, Framework vii. Media (Electronic- TV Radio, Print)
Convention on Climate change, the World Climate Research Program
and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. viii. Extension Services Management Academy

i. The report based on the climatic variables gives valuable ix. Bureau of Statistics and other data collection agencies
information for;
x. Policy making Government institutes for development

Citation: Zahra S, Batool M, Bashir QA. Impact of global climate change on economy of Pakistan: how to ensure sustainable food and energy production. Adv
Plants Agric Res. 2016;5(2):508‒513. DOI: 10.15406/apar.2016.05.00177
Impact of global climate change on economy of Pakistan: how to ensure sustainable food and energy Copyright:
©2016 Zahra et al. 512
production

Food security framework and Initiatives in coordination with international organizations:

Implementation of relevant initiatives in coordination with
recommendations international organizations as institutes to create conditions to
There is a considerable number of developing countries that have facilitate access to genetic resources for food and agriculture and the
achieved the goal of food security successfully. There is no doubt fair and equitable sharing of the benefits arising from their use.
that a successful food security policy has three basic characteristics
Inviting the International Commission (i.e. FAO): International
including political stability, good governance and strong economic
summits should be called and invite international commissions on
growth. Ensuring food sustainability under climate change will
food security to share mutual experiences between countries. This will
play important role in social welfare and environmental security by
be helpful to get accessibility to genetic resources and strengthening
improving economic and ecosystem stability, respectively (Figure 2).
the food policy (including conservation and use of genetic resources
in adapting the climate change).
Consider gender equality in food security issue: Taking into account
gender-sensitive and participatory approaches that enable both men
and women to gain equitable access to land use, information, and
resources when addressing food security in the context of climate
change.
Reaching vulnerable rural people with useful information:
Figure 2 Food security outcome.
Extension services should encourage farmers for adopting modern
practices, improving livestock productivity and the use of manure and
Recommendations improving water management.
Ensuring food security through mitigation of climate change: Promoting insurance schemes for climate change risk: Innovative
Assessments of climate change risks, susceptibility, and improving insurance scheme are needed for global reinsurance fund for climate
and implementing early warning systems, weather forecast system changes.
and food security plan in response to environmental challenges is
Increase research opportunities: Research activities should be
necessary especially in a coordinated manner with national and
enhanced with improvement in information collection and sharing by
international organizations.
increasing international cooperation and public and private investment
Integration of climate change aspects into food policies: Climate for research.
change concerns should be integrated in food security policies and
Improve food chain process: Make efficient food chain system to
programs to increase resilience of vulnerable groups and food systems
reduce losses due to post-harvest. In addition to this, make effective
to climate change, emphasizing adaptation to climate change as
strategy to food waste in a sustainable manner.
a major concern and objective for all farmers and food producers,
especially small-scale producers. Energy security framework and
Mobilization of political will: At present, many countries have recommendations
achieved goal of sustainable food production and fight with hunger
by giving priority to this issue. However there are still other countries Generally, energy security refers to the amount of energy
that either have not been successful through efforts or did not make consumption taken from renewable internal means; thus, it is not
framework and action plan. Although some under developed and low imported. It is obvious that changes in temperature, precipitation, sea
income countries are facing specific resources constraints but still level, and frequency and intensity of extreme events will ultimately
they need to give priority make action plans. Therefore, political will affect the energy production, supply and consumption. Energy is used
should be mobilized for food security. for different purposes, for example, for lighting and cooling, heating,
fuel for transportation and cooking. Production of energy and its use
Building institutions: Effective institutions are signs of good is linked with many other aspects of modern life, such as economic
governance. There should be such institutions that ensure the growth, water consumption, land use, use of goods and services,
contribution of agriculture and rural areas in sustainable development transportation and population growth. Climate change will likely
and food production and build people capacities, giving due determine amount of energy to be consumed as well as our ability
consideration to gender and nutrition-sensitive perspectives. to produce electricity and deliver it reliably. According to National
Economic & Environmental Development Study, the share of oil and
National and regional capabilities: There is need to develop national
natural gas will decline, while the share of renewable and nuclear
and local bodies that can deal with food security related climate
energy is considered to be increasing by 2030. The share of coal is
change issues via improvement in extension services; provision
expected to be 19% in 2030 as compared to 7.6% in 2005 (Table 2).
and availability of weather and climatic assessment tools with risk
The preferences for mitigating climate change are wide in the energy
management capacities.
sector for both the production as well as supply aspects. For energy
National and international investment cooperation: International demand, main focus is on the transport, residence, as well as industrial
cooperation should be improved along with public and private sector while for supply side, shifts in the fuel mix (renewable energy
investments to ensure food security in response to climate change. promotion) and efficiency enchantments is focused8,9 (Figure 3).

Citation: Zahra S, Batool M, Bashir QA. Impact of global climate change on economy of Pakistan: how to ensure sustainable food and energy production. Adv
Plants Agric Res. 2016;5(2):508‒513. DOI: 10.15406/apar.2016.05.00177
Impact of global climate change on economy of Pakistan: how to ensure sustainable food and energy Copyright:
©2016 Zahra et al. 513
production

Table 2 Energy demand projections by fuel in Pakistan’s energy security Promote research and study fields for biofuel production: there
action plan is need to run research projects and enhanced studies on biomass
applications for electricity generation could be carried out at the
  2005   2030   domestic level, taking into account possible GHG emissions and
  Mtoe Share (%) Mtoe Share (%) agricultural and infrastructural development. Production of biofuel
crops should be focused to meet the energy demand from all available
Oil 16.33 29.4 66.84 18.5 resources.
Natural Gas 28.17 50.8 162.58 45
Awareness campaigns: Campaigns for increasing the awareness of
Coal 4.22 7.6 68.65 19 the population on energy savings and the necessity for extensive use
Hydro 6.13 11 38.93 10.8 of renewable energy sources.

Renewable 0 0 9.2 2.5 Conclusion

Nuclear 0.67 1.2 15.11 4.2 Environmental changes are continuous affecting food and energy
Total 55.5 100 361.31 100 demand in the world. In the light of growing population issue and
related increased food and energy demand in Pakistan, there is need
to develop long-term policies at Government level to fight hunger and
stabilize the energy supply. These key issue are playing important role
in the economic stability of the country. Future framework will be
helpful in addressing and mitigating the possible effects of the climate
change on food and energy in context with their demand and supply.

Acknowledgements
None.

Conflict of interest
The author declares no conflict of interest.

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Citation: Zahra S, Batool M, Bashir QA. Impact of global climate change on economy of Pakistan: how to ensure sustainable food and energy production. Adv
Plants Agric Res. 2016;5(2):508‒513. DOI: 10.15406/apar.2016.05.00177