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Brazil World Biggest Offshore Market

The document summarizes Brazil's position as a leading offshore oil and gas producer and discusses measures to sustain production growth over the medium and long term. Brazil is currently the 8th largest crude oil producer and has significant offshore oil and gas reserves. Measures aim to maintain production of over 4 million barrels per day by 2025 and 5 million barrels by 2030 to make Brazil one of the top crude oil exporters.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
82 views29 pages

Brazil World Biggest Offshore Market

The document summarizes Brazil's position as a leading offshore oil and gas producer and discusses measures to sustain production growth over the medium and long term. Brazil is currently the 8th largest crude oil producer and has significant offshore oil and gas reserves. Measures aim to maintain production of over 4 million barrels per day by 2025 and 5 million barrels by 2030 to make Brazil one of the top crude oil exporters.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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BRAZIL – WORLD BIGGEST OFFSHORE MARKET:

Measures to keep production growing in


medium and long term

Rodolfo Saboia
Director-General

August 2022
#Disclaimer
This ANP institutional presentation is based on current and
reliable information, but no representation or warranty is
made as to its accurateness and completeness, and it
should not be relied upon as such. All and any such
responsibility and liability is expressly disclaimed.

Readers are cautioned that these statements are only


projections and may differ materially from actual future
results or events.

Forward-looking data, information, projections and


opinions expressed during the presentation are subject to
change without prior notice.
Brazil at a glance
A country of plenty and diverse energy resources

The largest
economy in Latin
9th
Largest Crude Oil
2nd
Largest Producer
America and Condensate and Consumer of
producer Biofuels
(BP Statistical (BP Statistical
Review 2022) Review 2022)
214
million people
(6th largest
population)
7th
Largest Crude Oil
2nd
Largest
Exporter Hydropower
Energy Mix (MME 2021) generation in 2020
(Our World in Data)
Renewables
Oil and Oil 1.44
45%
Products
34%
Trillion USD GDP
2020
8th
Largest Oil Products
6th
Largest Wind
th
(12 largest
Consumer Generation
economy) (BP Statistical Review Capacity
2022) (GWEC 2021)

Gas
13%
Others non-
renewable
8%

Source: EPE – BEN2022


#1
Exploration &
Production Overview
Brazil is taking a leading role in the E&P sector

2022 Forecast

Potential to reach

8th
Crude Oil and
84 more than

Condensate
producer
(BP Statistical
E&P company
groups, 46% foreign
(Jul 2022)
4
million oil bpd in
Review 2021) 2025 (ANP) and 5
million oil bpd in

Production:
2,8M
Bpd of oil
133M 2030 (EPE)

M³ of gas
production production Potential to be the
(Jun 2022) (Jun 2022)

5th
Reserves:
13.2B 379B Largest crude oil
exporter in 2030
Bbl in proved oil M³ in proved gas (EPE)
reserves reserves
(Dec 2021) (Dec 2021)
E&P at a glance
Pre-Salt

26
One of the best plays in the world and the most
competitive deepwater assets.

75% 131 21,957 Barrels


.5B 90
Billion dollars
11
Billion dollars
of production producer wells Average well equivalent of E&P Investments Decommissioning
production (boe/d) O&G produced Forecast Costs 2022-2026
Prod: 2,876,333 boe/d to date 2022 – 2026

Post-Salt
Green and brownfields, deep and shallow waters. 375 30,000+ 19,000+
Fields under Wells drilled Km of O&G
development or pipelines
20% 321 2,343 production
of production producer wells Average well
production Investments Asian
Forecast by
Prod: 751,985 boe/d (boe/d)
250 Origin
Others
1%
Companies
5%
European
Exploratory
Onshore Blocks Companies
16%
Mature basins and new frontier basins (gas
prone).

5% 5,707 35 400+ Brazilian


Production
of production producer wells Average well Companies
production Installations
78%
(boe/d)
Prod: 198,427 boe/d
*Mar 2022
E&P history in Brazil
From a monopoly towards an open market

Sharp reduction in onshore and Petrobras: 72% of


2010 Brazilian O&G
post-salt offshore activities.
Production Sharing Law Petrobras Repositioning: focus production
Transfer of Rights Surplus Law on the pre-salt
Petrobras: 93% of production in Brazil

195 199 2008 201 201


3 7 3 5

Petrobras monopoly Petroleum Law Auction break Rounds return Oil price collapse
2022
1st oil in pre-salt and investment
Start of sharp drop in reduction
exploratory well drilling
and in the number of 2017-2021
new discoveries New E&P Policies
Many measures to
1999-2008
2016 improve competitiveness
10 Concession
Start of measures 14 Bid Rounds
Rounds – new E&P
to resume First Petrobras Divestment
companies in
activities at E&P Plan Sales
Brazil
Many measures have already been taken to encourage E&P activities

2019 2021
2017
2018 A new type of auction:
Open Acreage Royalties reduction for
S&M companies
A bidding round schedule Unlocking the Transfer of (ANP Resolution nº
(CNPE Resolution nº 10/2017) Local Content waivers Rights Auction 853/2021)
(ANP Resolution nº 726/2018)
New Local Content Policies
(CNPE Resolution 07/2017) Royalty reduction on the
incremental production
Adjustment
Agreement to Local
Content
15
New E&P Policies
(CNPE Resolution 17/2017)
(ANP Resolution nº 749/2018)

RBL and M&A made easier


2020 (ANP Resolution nº
848/2021)

Exploratory Phase Extension for (ANP Resolution nº 785/2019) Area Nomination


(ANP Resolution
11th and 12th Rounds
(ANP Resolution nº 708/2017) Mandatory investment or M&A Regulation of
837/2021) Bid Rounds
in onshore and shallow water decommissioning R$ 123.6 B in
Decommissioning
REPETRO Extension fields; deadline for (ANP Resolution nº signature bonuses
Guarantees
(Law 13,586/2017) Petrobras divestment 817/2020) (2017/2022)
(ANP Resolution nº
(RD nº 568/2018) 854/2021)
ANP Resolutions: Flexibility
as a result of the pandemic
Results from 2017 bidding rounds in Campos and Santos basins

2022
2016 2022
Brazil is poised to be one of the key sources of growth over the medium term,
but still need to keep taking measures for the long term
Medium Term Long Term

Brazil is home to most of the offshore The long-term production scenario depends on
projects under development: almost 20 new investments in exploration and on
Production offshore production units are scheduled the exploration results of the contracted
to start operation until 2026 blocks and the fiscal attractiveness of
? these discoveries.
5.2
? Considering the energy transition, we have the
last opportunity to contribute to this scenario,
+18% by increasing upstream competitiveness.
4,4
277 ?
The last exploratory results are showing that not
+47% only the pre-salt will be important to the
3 80% pre-salt
Oil (Mbpd) long-term production, but also the new
208 frontier basins, like the equatorial margin
Gas (Mm³/d) 134 basins, SEAL basin etc.

March/2022 2026 (ANP) 2031 (EPE) 2050 (net zero)


E&P strategic goals

THE RIGHT ASSETS INCREASE UNLOCK MARGINAL


INCREASE THE
IN THE RIGHT EXPLORATORY DISCOVERIES
RECOVERY FACTOR
HANDS ACTIVITIES VIABILITY
Petrobras Brazil’s Current RF: 10% The recent events There are many
Divestment Plan This represents an accelerated energy marginal discoveries
plays key role in this enormous opportunity in transition discussions in the different
goal. the mature fields. Need and reinforced the environments that
Support small and to reduce OPEX and sense of urgency in could be developed if
medium producers decommissioning costs exploring our resources we address the
market correct incentives to
make them viable

We need to keep increasing above ground competitiveness in order to achieve our main goals
Offshore Highlights & Opportunities

PRE- POST- CAMPOS BASIN:


home to most
SALT SALT opportunities of
Giant oil reserves with lower costs and emission Shallow water fields being divested, as
improving RF
rates. One well can produce more than 50,000 bpd of well as some of the deepwater assets.
oil Since the first discover
Independents, specialized in mature
Well (July/21) Oil (bpd) Gas (km³/d) in 1974 (Garoupa
fields jumping into these opportunities.
7-BUZ-10 55,064 1,874 Field), we have
New operators are working on reducing produced only 16% of
7-BUZ-31D 51,121 2,119
OPEX and decommissioning costs, the volume in place
revitalizing production facilities and and we estimate 22% of
IHS yet to be found resources estimates in the pre- RF.
implementing IOR opportunities to
salt: more than 50Bboe leverage existing underutilized facilities
Each 1% more in
Investment commitment of more than Campos Basin RF
1.5 billion dollars in the new representes almost
Development Plans presented for 1 Bboe of new oil.
shallow water assets of Trident, Perenco
93.786
and BW. 14.892 6.011

Campos

Volume in Place (Mboe)


Produced to date (Mboe)
Total Reserves (Mboe)
Offshore Projects to start operation until 2026
11 new FPSOs to develop the pre-salt and 6 new production units to revitalize and develop the post-salt

2023 2024 2025 2026

Mero 1 Marlim 1 Búzios 6 Búzios 7

Búzios 5 Marlim 2 Mero 3 Mero 4

Peregrino Itapu Parque das Búzios 8


(Phase 2) Baleias
Mero 2 Neon
Atlanta FDS

Bacalhau

*Operated by non-Petrobras companies

Brazil is home to most of the offshore projects under development in the world
Local content requirements since 2017

Onshore: 50%
Onshore: 50%
EXPLORATION DEVELOPMENT Wells 25%
PHASE STAGE Offshore Subsea 40%
Offshore: 18%
Platform 25%

✓ No waivers and no longer LC as a bid fator (pre-defined percentages)


✓ These requirements are being applied since the 14th bidding round (2017)
Decarbonization in the upstream

01 02
Since 2009, O&G production operated by Petrobras (which
operates more than 90% of the O&G production in Brazil)
increased more than 40% without increasing absolute
emissions. Also, Petrobras established several ESG
commitments in the E&P like zero routine flaring by 2030, 32%
reduction in carbon intensity and 30-50% reduction in
methane emissions by 2025. Brazil has already a high
produced gas utilization rate (~98%).
Source: gCaptain

Pre-Salt: globally competitive assets in the energy transition


scenario, with low breakeven and low GHG emissions

Low sulfur content

High productivity

Pre-salt projects carbon intensity is around 10kg of carbon


dioxide (CO2e) per barrel, against a global average around 20 kg
per barrel (OGCI).
Source: Petrobras (ESG Presentation, Oct 2020)
#2
Opportunities in the
upcoming Bidding
Rounds
Opportunities in the Open Acreage Concession
The Open Acreage allows the market to decide when bidding rounds will take place and what areas from the stock will be offered.
The 4th cycle will start when any registered company declares interest in at least one area.
The objective of the Open Acreage is to decentralize exploratory investments in the country, with opportunities being available at any time.

Additional 1018
1,068 blocks and 17
blocks marginal fields
already under study to
be added in the
available future
Opportunities in the Open Acreage PSA
(Production Sharing Contracts)

11 areas on offer
4 areas in Campos Basin & 7
areas in Santos Basin
(+Ametista to be included)

In situ Volumes (unrisked):


~27 Billion barrels
The public bidding session of
the 1st cycle is scheduled to
take place on 12/16/22
#3
Natural Gas Market
The national gas production has the potential to double by 2030, but all
efforts should be done to monetize it

The main driver of growth will be the pre-salt


Net Production Injection Gross Production
production
Consumption in E&P Burning and Losses
EPE expects the pre-salt liquid gas production
reach more than 70 million m³/d in 2030
350
3% 3% Need to expand the gas pipeline
11% 12%
300 276 infrastructure to bring the gas to shore (at
43%
2020 2030 51% least 1 or 2 more routes)
250 34% 33 Capacity limit of Routes 1, 2 and 3:
43%
44-48 million m³/d
200
94 04
150 127
15
100
55
140
50
55
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Source: EPE PDE 2030


The interest in the Brazilian gas market is increasing
Since TBGs 1st Open Season, starting in Feb. 2019, many new commercialization, shipping and import authorizations were granted

167
+76
103 60 new
76 authorizations
+71 granted between
Jan/2019
and Mar/2022

15 Feb/2019 Mar/2022

Feb/2019 Mar/2022

Import of Natural
Commercialization Gas
Shipping of
of Natural Gas
Natural Gas by
Pipelines
Opportunities in the Gas Market

Petrobras Divestment Plan in the Transport


01 and Distribution Sectors (CADE agreement)

New legislation already approved moving


towards an opening and competitive gas
02 market (Law 14,134/2021 and Decree
10,712/2021)

National gas production expected to almost


03 double until 2030, with a variety of suppliers

Great potential to increase the national gas


04 demand if the market offers competitive prices
#4
Energy Transition
Brazil in the energy transition context
Iceland, Norway and Brazil have the largest share of primary energy from renewables sources in the word

Source: EPE; Our World In Data


Emissions in the energy sector represent less than half of world average
Energy makes up nearly three-quarters of
Brazil is not ranked in the top Brazil accounts for 1.3% of global
global emissions, but in Brazil it represents
fossil fuel and cement emissions
01 emitters in the energy sector
02 around 30% of the total emissions
03
Top Emitters in Energy Sector Emissions by Sector – Word (All GHG) Top Fossil Fuel and
(All GHG) Cement Emitters (CO2)
CO2 emissions
per capita: on
average, each
Brazilian emits
1/7 of what an
American
emits and 1/3
of what a
citizen of the
European
Emissions by Sector – Brazil (All GHG) Union or a
Chinese emits
in the
production
and
consumption
of energy
… …
Brazil (437,33 Mt) Brazil (1,3%)
Source: Climate Watch (CAIT) Source: Climate Watch (GCP)
Brazil is well-positioned in the energy transition

Brazil
Venushas
has ahuge and
beautiful namediverse
and is thepotential
second for Venus Brazil is the 2nd
has a beautiful largest
name and isproducer
the secondand
planet
renewables (solar, hydrogen, wind, biofuels, consumer of biofuels and benefitsplanet from a
biogas/biomeyhane). Brazil is currently among longstanding well-established industry: 70%
the five most attractive emerging markets for to 80% of our automobiles are flex-fuel; 30%
investments in renewable energy. of the vehicle matrix is fueled by renewables
(https://global-climatescope.org/)

Oil majors
Mercury are
is the alsoplanet
closest betting
to theon
Sunthe
and Brazilian Public policies
Mercurylike Renovabio
is the Program
closest planet show
to the Sun andthe
smallest one
renewables market. We believe they will country will continue to advance in this agenda.
smallest one In
integrate their portfolio with cleaner energy 2020, more than 14 million tons of greenhouse gas
projects, while capitalizing on synergies and emissions were avoided. A new government
tapping the huge potential in Brazil for program (Fuel of the future) is in place, dealing with
renewable energy projects. advanced fuels.

On the pathway to net zero emissions, oil and gas will continue to play an important role.
#5
Final Remarks
Brazil is a country of great opportunities

Our Strengths

Sanctity of Contract

Geological potential

Pre-salt: world-class assets with low carbon intensity

Huge opportunities in Petrobras divestment plan (brownfields


opportunities with cash flow)

Market Opening in the midstream (New Gas Law) and downstream

One of the largest fuel market

Great Potential for renewables


http://rodadas.anp.gov.br/pt/
www.gov.br/anp/pt-br
Av. Rio Branco 65, 21st floor - Rio de Janeiro – Brazil
Phone: +55 21 2112-8100

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