ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN VIET NAM:

ASSESSING PROGRESS AND ESTIMATING REQUIRED EFFORTS - AN AVERAGE
ANNUAL RATE OF REDUCTION (AARR) ANALYSIS ACROSS SOCIAL SECTORS
UNICEF VIET NAM
December 2022
ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN VIET NAM:
ASSESSING PROGRESS AND ESTIMATING REQUIRED EFFORTS - AN AVERAGE
ANNUAL RATE OF REDUCTION (AARR) ANALYSIS ACROSS SOCIAL SECTORS
UNICEF VIET NAM
December 2022
 © UNICEF Viet Nam\ shutterstock.com
1. BACKGROUND
With a population of 97.6 million people in 2020 support to national surveys. The Viet Nam
(GSO 2021), Viet Nam has made positive strides in Sustainable Development Goals on Children and
economic growth and poverty reduction in the last Women (SDGCW) survey was carried out in 2020-
30 years. Over the past two decades, the country 2021 by Viet Nam’s General Statistics Office (GSO)
has made important progress in increasing in collaboration with other government ministries
social services coverage towards achieving the and agencies as part of UNICEF’s Multiple Indicator
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Cluster Surveys (MICS) programme. Technical
national poverty rate has reduced sharply from 21 and financial support was provided by UNICEF
per cent in 2010 to 5 per cent in 2020 (World Bank and United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).
2022). However, there are significant disparities This SDGCW report was officially disseminated in
across regions, ethnic groups and between rural December 2021.
and urban areas. Additional effort is still needed
to ensure the country’s SDG targets will be timely The SDGCW 2020-2021 survey includes data for
met by 2030. Furthermore, while poverty has 169 indicators, of which 35 are directly linked to
consistently reduced, the COVID-19 pandemic SDG indicators, making it a key data source to
since 2020 has led to setbacks in poverty reduction monitor Viet Nam’s progress towards achieving
and widen inequality across both monetary and the SDGs and its national targets under its
non-monetary dimensions, with harmful effects National Plan of Action on the Implementation of
on children’s wellbeing and child-related SDG the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda. The
progress. survey’s findings will enable Viet Nam to better
track and fulfil its commitment to “leaving no one
With a mandate to advocate for child rights, behind,” as all indicators can be disaggregated
UNICEF Viet Nam has been providing technical by wealth quintiles, sex, age, ethnicity, migratory
assistance to monitor child poverty and social status, disability and geographic location, or other
indicators through evidence generation and characteristics.

4 ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN VIET NAM:

2. PURPOSE AND METHODS

At the global level, the 17 SDGs of the 2030 challenges in specific sectors. It is also important
Agenda for Sustainable Development were to inform public advocacy to promote public
adopted in January 2016 and agreed to be investments in social sectors and advocate for
monitored and reviewed using a set of 169 appropriate policies and interventions to place
global indicators. In Viet Nam, these global SDGs Viet Nam on a sustainable trajectory to achieve
have been nationalized into 115 Viet Nam SDG its national development objectives and SDGs.
(VSDG) targets in the country’s “National Action
Plan for Implementation of Agenda 2030 for The AARR is the average relative percentage
Sustainable Development”, based on Viet Nam’s decrease per year in the prevalence of a certain
development context and priorities. The targets issue (UNICEF 2007, 2017). It was initially
for VSDGs were set out in the Implementation developed by UNICEF to monitor and evaluate
Roadmap for Viet Nam’s Sustainable Goals until global trends in prevalence of stunting among
2030, issued with Decision 681/QD-TTg (dated 4 children under-five and quantify the rate of
June 2019) by the Prime Minister. change in the prevalence from the baseline to
the current year. If the prevalence is known and
While the majority of VSDGs reflect the SDGs, the annual rate of reduction is constant, then
there are unique characteristics in terms of the predicted prevalence of the next year can
indicators or targets. For example, ‘neonatal be calculated using that current AARR. The AARR
mortality rate’ is an indicator for global SDG 3.2, is calculated by fitting the regression line of the
but not for VSDG 3.2. Similarly, ‘under-one-year- prevalence rates (in logarithm) against a specific
old mortality rate’ is an indicator for VSDG 3.2, but time period. While initially developed to assess
not for SDG 3.2. Furthermore, Viet Nam’s national nutrition targets, AARRs can be used to gauge
targets are often more ambitious and specific progress in other SDGs as well. A positive sign
than the global targets. indicates reduction or downward trend, while
a negative sign indicates increase, or upward
This analysis reviews the SDGCW survey report trend. Details on the AARR calculations are
in 2020-2021 and the MICS reports of 1996, 2000, featured in the Appendix. The AARR does not
2006, 2011 and 2014. Specifically, the analysis account for variations of intensity needed to
selects the indicators directly linked to SDG achieve set targets (the last miles are always the
indicators and estimates the Annual Average hardest to achieve), as it is a linear regression
Rate of Reduction (AARR) across social sectors to model and the proposed estimates and trend
assess additional efforts needed by the country model only determine the reduction rate (and
to achieve its SDGs, compared to global and predict future ones) using past values.
national targets. The analysis evaluates Viet
Nam’s progress towards the SDGs, highlighting

ASSESSING PROGRESS AND ESTIMATING REQUIRED EFFORTS - AN AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF REDUCTION (AARR) 5
ANALYSIS ACROSS SOCIAL SECTORS
6 ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN VIET NAM:
3. SDG ACHIEVEMENTS

Table 1 summarizes Viet Nam’s progress towards SDG indicators calculated for seven SDGs, about
achievement of the SDGs, based on the MICS 56.3 per cent are achieved or on-track, 12.5
surveys conducted during the period 1995- per cent have challenges, 18.8 per cent have
2020 and states which indicators are likely to major challenges. Two child-related indicators
be achieved and whether significant challenges associated with the SDGs Good Health and Well-
remain based on the methodology described Being (SDG 3), Clean Water and Sanitation (SDG
in the Sustainable Development Report 2020 6) and Decent Work and Economic Growth (SDG
(Sachs et al 2020). Specifically, indicators defined 8) are on-track. Two child mortality indicators
as achieved or on-track are ones that with the of SDG3 have remaining challenges. SDG 4 is
current AARRs calculated by this paper’s authors, on-track for Primary, Lower secondary and Pre-
the SDG targets for 2030 will be either achieved primary Education, but major challenges are
or surpassed; challenges remain are indicators evident with the Early Childhood Development
where current rates are above 50 per cent of Index. With regards to SDG 6, both the water and
the required growth rates; significant challenges the sanitation target has significant challenges.
remain signifies that current indicators are Indicators for SDG 16 have mixed results: the birth
stagnant or less than 50 per cent of the required registration rate is on-track, in contrast to major
AARR, while major challenges remain are the ones challenges in the punishment by caregivers’ rate.
with the tendency of the indicators are opposite, Finally, the early marriage indicator for SDG 5 is
i.e. the country moves in the wrong direction. high with no improvement visible, indicating
major challenges for the achievement of this
As shown by Table 1, of the 16 child-related SDG.
© UNICEF Viet Nam\Hoang Hiep

ASSESSING PROGRESS AND ESTIMATING REQUIRED EFFORTS - AN AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF REDUCTION (AARR) 7
ANALYSIS ACROSS SOCIAL SECTORS
 TABLE 1. SUMMARY OF SDG ACHIEVEMENTS (BY 2020)

SDG 3: Good Health and Well-Being

Under-five Infant Neonatal

Skilled birth Contraceptive
mortality rate mortality rate mortality
attendance use
(22.3/1000 live (13.9/1000 live (12/1000 live
(96.1%) (72.8%)
births) births) births)

SDG 4: Quality Education

Lower Pre-primary
Primary school Early Childhood
secondary school
completion rate Development
completion participation
(98.3%) Index (78.2%)
rate (86.8%) (80.5%)

SDG 7:
SDG 5: Gender SDG 6: Clean Water and
Affordable and
Equality Sanitation
Clean Energy

Safely Safely
Early marriage Primary reliance
managed managed
before 18-year- on clean fuels
drinking water sanitation
old (14.6%) (86%)
(57.9%) facility (43.9%)

SDG 8: Decent SDG 16: Peace and justice

work and
economic
growth

Punishment Birth
Child labour
by caregivers registration
(6.6%)
(72.4%) (98.5%)
Source: Author’s

Achieved/on-track
Challenges remain
Significant challenges remain
Major challenges remain

Next, Viet Nam’s specific progress towards the SDGs is examined.

8 ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN VIET NAM:

3.1. GOAL 3: ENSURE HEALTHY LIVES
AND PROMOTE WELL-BEING FOR
ALL AT ALL AGES
SDG 3.2: By 2030, end preventable deaths of
newborns and children under 5 years of age, with
all countries aiming to reduce neonatal mortality
to at least as low as 12 per 1,000 live births and

© UNICEF Viet Nam

under-five mortality to at least as low as 25 per
1,000 live births.

VSDG 3.1: By 2030, reduce by half the maternal

mortality rate to below 45 per 100,000 live births;
reduce the under-one child mortality rate to below
Meanwhile, the current infant mortality rate of
10 per 1,000 live births and the under-five child
13.9 per 1,000 live births is close to the national
mortality rate to below 15 per 1,000 live births
target rate of 9.0 by 2030, as is the current skilled
(Global targets 3.1 and 3.2).
birth attendance rate (96.1 per cent versus 100
SDG 3.7: By 2030, ensure universal access to sexual per cent by 2030), while the contraceptive use
and reproductive health-care services, including for rate of 72.8 per cent in 2020 exceeds the national
family planning, information and education, and target of 70 per cent for 2025 and 2030 national
the integration of reproductive health into national targets.
strategies and programmes.
The AARR for the under-five and infant mortality
VSDG 3.6: By 2030, ensure universal access to rates during 1995-2020 were 1.93 and 2.42 per
reproductive and sexual healthcare services, cent, respectively, about 50-60% of the required
including family planning, communication, and rate to achieve the 2030 national targets,
education, integrate reproductive health into implying remaining challenges for Vietnam.
relevant national strategies, programmes (Global The AARR for the neonatal mortality rate during
target 3.7). 2014-2020 was 10.9 per cent, while the AARRs
for skilled birth attendance and contraceptive
Table 2 and Figures 1-4 indicate the trends in use among women during 2000-2020 were -0.70
indicators for SDG 3. In all indicators, remarkable per cent and 0.06 per cent, respectively. Except
improvements over time are evident. By 2020, for the under-five and the infant mortality rate,
both neonatal and under-five mortality were all the other AARRs are better than the required
already lower than global thresholds established estimated ones, implying that if current progress
in SDG 3.2. In other words, the 2030 global targets is maintained, the targets will be reached and
for these two indicators were achieved in 2020. even surpassed.

ASSESSING PROGRESS AND ESTIMATING REQUIRED EFFORTS - AN AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF REDUCTION (AARR) 9
ANALYSIS ACROSS SOCIAL SECTORS
 TABLE 2. SDG 3 INDICATORS

Under-five Infant Neonatal Skilled birth Contraceptive use

mortality mortality mortality attendance among women aged
rate rate rate (%) 15-49(%)

1995 39.2 29.6 -- -- --

2000 25.4 16.7 -- 84.0 74.2

2006 24.5 16.0 -- 87.7 75.7

2011 22.3 15.5 -- 92.9 77.8

2014 22.4 14.9 11.95 93.8 75.7

2020 22.3 13.9 6 96.1 72.8

2025 (National target) 18.5 9.5 > 70

2030 (National target) 15 9.0 100 > 70

2030 (Global target) 25 12

Current AARR Rate 1.93 2.42 10.9 -0.70 0.06

Required AARR for 2025 3.67 7.33 0.78

national target

Required AARR for 2030 3.89 4.25 -0.40 0.39

national target

Required AARR for 2030 -1.15

global target

--: Data are not available

Source: Author’s (using GSO’s mortality data and the remaining data from MICS and 2020-2020 SDGCW)

Figure 1 indicates that the latest under-five mortality rate in 2020 is already lower than the global
targets for 2030, and lower than the 2025 and 2030 national target. Vietnam should double its progress
in reducing the under-five mortality to achieve the 2025-2030 targets. Note that the predicted line for
2025 national target overlaps with the predicted line for 2030 national target except for the endpoint.

10 ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN VIET NAM:

 FIGURE 1: UNDER-FIVE MORTALITY (RATE PER 1,000 LIVE BIRTHS) TRENDS AND PROGRESS
60.0

50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0

10.0

-
1995 2000 2006 2011 2014 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Current AARR Required AARR for 2025 national target
Required AARR for 2030 national target Required AARR for 2030 global target

Source: Author’s

Figure 2 shows that the current progress in reducing infant mortality rate still fall shorts of the 2025
and 2030 targets. If the current AARR of 2.42 per cent is maintained, Vietnam’s infant mortality rate
would be 12.3/1000 live births in 2025 and 10.9/1000 live births in 2030, still higher than the target
rates of 9.5/1000 live births in 2025 and 9/1000 live births in 2030. The country needs extra effort in
order to achieve those targets.

FIGURE 2: INFANT MORTALITY (RATE PER 1,000 LIVE BIRTHS) TRENDS AND PROGRESS

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
1995 2000 2006 2011 2014 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Current AARR Required AARR for 2025 national target

Required AARR for 2030 national target
Source: Author’s

Figure 3 indicates that the skilled birth attendance rate was already high in 2020 at 96.1 per cent. With
the current AARR of -0.7 per cent, the rate can hit 100 per cent by 2026, four years ahead of schedule.

ASSESSING PROGRESS AND ESTIMATING REQUIRED EFFORTS - AN AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF REDUCTION (AARR) 11
ANALYSIS ACROSS SOCIAL SECTORS
 FIGURE 3: SKILLED BIRTH ATTENDANCE TREND AND PROGRESS

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
2000 2006 2011 2014 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Current AARR Required AARR for 2030 national target

Source: Author’s

Figure 4 highlights contraceptive use among females aged 15-49 years. Since 2000, the rate actually
eclipsed the national targets of 70 per cent by 2025 and 2030, however there was a decrease  in
conceptive use from 77.8 per cent in 2011 to 72.8 per cent in 2020. If this declining trend continued,
there is a danger than the contraceptive use targets will not be achieved.

FIGURE 4: CONTRACEPTIVE USE AMONG FEMALES AGED 15-49 (%)

80

78

76

74

72

70

68

66
2000 2006 2011 2014 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Current AARR Required AARR for 2025 national target Required AARR for 2030 national target

Source: Author’s

12 ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN VIET NAM:

Conclusion: In general, the targets for SDG 3.2 VSDG 4.1: By 2030, ensure that all girls and boys
are already achieved both by the global and the complete free, equitable and quality primary
national targets. education and lower secondary education.

SDG 4.2: By 2030, ensure that all girls and

boys have access to quality early childhood
development, care, and pre-primary education
so that they are ready for primary education.

VSDG 4.2: By 2030, ensure that all girls and

boys have access to quality early childhood
3.2. GOAL 4: ENSURE INCLUSIVE development, care, and pre-school education so
AND EQUITABLE QUALITY that they become ready for primary education.
EDUCATION AND PROMOTE Table 3 reports progress in SDG 4.1 and 4.2
LIFELONG LEARNING indicators. The primary school completion
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ALL rate in 2020 was 98.3 per cent, higher than the
national target of 97 per cent for 2025 and close
SDG 4.1: By 2030, ensure that all girls and boys to the national target of 99 per cent for 2030. The
complete free, equitable and quality primary AARR for primary school completion rate is -1.1
and secondary education leading to relevant per cent. If the current AARR is maintained, the
and effective learning outcomes. 2030 target for this indicator will be reached.

TABLE 3. SDG 4.1 AND 4.2 INDICATORS

Primary school Lower secondary Pre-primary school Early Childhood

completion rate (%) completion rate (%) participation (%) Development Index (%)
1995 -- -- 43.7 --
2000 -- -- 42.3 --
2006 81.7 -- 57.1 --
2011 99.6 -- 71.9 82.8
2014 95.9 -- 71.3 88.7
2020 98.3 86.8 80.5 78.2
2025 (target) 97.0 88 99.1 99.1
2030 (target) 99.0 93 99.3 99.3
Current AARR Rate -1.17 -2.89 0.84
Required AARR for 0.27 -0.27 -4.25 -4.85
2025 national target
Required AARR for -0.07 -0.69 -2.12 -2.42
2030 national target

--: Data are not available Source: Author’s

ASSESSING PROGRESS AND ESTIMATING REQUIRED EFFORTS - AN AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF REDUCTION (AARR) 13
ANALYSIS ACROSS SOCIAL SECTORS
Figure 5 indicates that the primary school completion rate is on-track. If the current AARR of -1.1 is
maintained, the goal for 2030 would be obtained in 2021.

FIGURE 5: PRIMARY SCHOOL COMPLETION RATE: TRENDS AND PROGRESS (%)

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
2006 2011 2014 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Current AARR Required AARR for 2025 national target Required AARR for 2030 national target

Source: Author’s

Figure 6 shows that Gender Parity Index, which has been achieved at all levels of education.

FIGURE 6: GENDER PARITY INDEX

1.12
1.11
1.1
1.08
1.07
1.06
1.04
1.03 1.03
1.02 1.02
1 1 1 1 1
0.99
0.98
0.96
0.94
0.92
2006 2010 2014 2021

Gender parity index, primary Gender parity index, secondary

Gender parity index, lower secondary Gender parity index, upper secondary

Source: Author’s

14 ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN VIET NAM:

As for the SDG 4.2 indicators, while Viet Nam has achieved significant improvements in pre-primary
school participation, from 43.7 per cent in 1995 to 80.5 per cent in 2020, it is still far below the targets
of 99 per cent for 2025 and 2030. Similarly, the current Early Childhood Development Index is 78.2 per
cent, even lower than that in 2011 (82.8 per cent) and 2014 (88.7 per cent), and much lower than the
targeted 99.1 per cent by 2025 and 99.3 in 2030. The AARR for pre-primary school participation for
1995-2020 is -2.9 per cent, while that for the Early Childhood Development Index during 2011-2020 is
0.8 per cent.

Figure 7 indicates that Viet Nam needs additional efforts to achieve the 2025 pre-primary school
participation goal. However, if the current AARR is maintained, the target for 2030 will be achieved
two years earlier.

FIGURE 7: PRE-PRIMARY SCHOOL PARTICIPATION RATE: TRENDS AND PROGRESS (%)

120.0

100.0

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0
1995 2000 2006 2011 2014 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Current AARR Required AARR for 2025 national target Required AARR for 2030 national target

Source: Author’s

However, Figure 8 reveals that if the current AARR is maintained, Viet Nam will not achieve its Early
Childhood Development Index targets for 2025 and 2030. In response, Viet Nam needs to double its
efforts to reverse course to meet these targets. Specifically, the current AARR is 0.84 per cent, while
the required AARR to obtain the 2025 target is -4.85 per cent and to reach the 2030 national target is
-2.42 per cent.

In any case, it will be acutely challenging for Viet Nam to achieve this Early Childhood Development
Index target. According to the UNICEF database, up to 2020 the average index percentage for more
than 100 countries was 75.3, with 97 the highest. Only five countries have index percentages greater
than or equal to 951.

1 Data downloaded from the UNICEF database: https://data.unicef.org/topic/early-childhood-development/development-status/,

accessed 31 May 2022.

ASSESSING PROGRESS AND ESTIMATING REQUIRED EFFORTS - AN AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF REDUCTION (AARR) 15
ANALYSIS ACROSS SOCIAL SECTORS
 FIGURE 8: EARLY CHILDHOOD DEVELOPMENT INDEX: TRENDS AND PROGRESS (%)

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
2011 2014 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Current AARR Required AARR for 2025 national target Required AARR for 2030 national target

Source: Author’s

Equity-focused analysis for education including those from ethnic minorities. This is
especially critical given the context in which
While Viet Nam has achieved important progress the government approved its master plan and
towards education goals, disparities are apparent nationally targeted programme (NTP) on socio-
in access to education for some segments of economic development for ethnic minority and
the population, including children of ethnic mountainous areas, which set high education
minorities, from poor families and those with targets for ethnic minorities (net enrolment rate
disabilities. Figure 9 spotlights a downward for lower secondary education at 95 per cent)2.
trend for ethnic minority children in the Early
Childhood Development Index from 2011 (64.8
per cent) to 2020 (62.9 per cent) and disparities
between ethnic minority children and the Kinh
majority (62.9 versus 81.4 per cent in 2020). In
addition, a considerable difference between
ethnic minority children and their Kinh peers in
net attendance at lower secondary education
(82.8 versus 94.5 per cent) is apparent. Therefore,
the government will need to accelerate its efforts
to address the last mile challenges in education to
ensure quality and inclusive access to education 2 Decision No.1719/QD-TTg (14 October 2020) on approving
the NTP on socio-economic development for ethnic
for these vulnerable and disadvantaged children, minority and mountainous areas.

16 ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN VIET NAM:

 FIGURE 9: EARLY CHILDHOOD DEVELOPMENT INDEX (%)

100 91.2
88.7 85.4
90 82.8 81.4
78.2 77.1
80
70 64.8 62.9
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
All Kinh Ethnic minorities

2011 2014 2020

FIGURE 10: NET ATTENDANCE AT LOWER SECONDARY SCHOOLS (%)

100 93 94.5
83.9 83.7 87.5
81 82.8
80
65.6 65.9
60

40

20

0
All Kinh Ethnic minorities

2011 2014 2020

Conclusion: The targets for SDG 4.1 are nearly - Promote parenting education, especially
achieved or on-track. However, targets for SDG 4.2 father engagement in childhood stimulation.
remain a major challenge as the Early Childhood
Development Index is trending in the opposite - Develop and implement a tuition fee waiver
direction. Notably, from an equity perspective, the policy for preschool and lower secondary
government will need to make great efforts to education to ensure universal free education
ensure quality and inclusive access to education for children aged 5-14 years.
at all levels for vulnerable groups of children,
- Investment in improving the access to
including those from ethnic minority groups.
education for the most vulnerable groups,
What can be done to accelerate progress including children with ethnic minority
towards the achievement of SDG 4? backgrounds, those from poor families and
children with disabilities.
- Universalize early childhood education for
children aged 3-4 years old.

ASSESSING PROGRESS AND ESTIMATING REQUIRED EFFORTS - AN AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF REDUCTION (AARR) 17
ANALYSIS ACROSS SOCIAL SECTORS
 TABLE 4. SDG 5.3 INDICATOR
Early marriage (before
18, %)
2011 12.3
2014 11.2
2020 14.6
3.3. GOAL 5: GENDER EQUALITY
2025 Annual reduction: 2-3%
SDG 5.3: Eliminate all harmful practices, such 2030 Annual reduction: 2-3%
as child, early and forced marriage and female
Current AARR (%) -2.3
genital mutilation.
Required AARR (%) 2 to 3
VSDG 5.3: Reduce and gradually eliminate Source: Author’s
harmful practices such as child, early and forced
Figure 11A spotlights this increasing early
marriage.
marriage trend, where two required AARRs are
Table 4 indicates the recent rise of the early used: 2 per cent as the lower bound and 3 per cent
marriage rate (before the age of 18 years) for as the higher bound. In Figure 11B, the average
women, from 12.3 per cent in 2011 to 14.6 per required AARR of 2.5 per cent is used instead of
cent in 2020 (after a reduction to 11.2 per cent in two bounds. In either case, Viet Nam is going
2014). Compared to the national annual reduction in the opposite direction to reducing its early
target of 2 to 3 percentage points, it is clear there marriage rate. Extra efforts are needed to reverse
is still a long way to go to achieve this SDG. this course so the country can successfully reduce
and gradually terminate this harmful practice.

FIGURE 11A: EARLY MARRIAGE (%)

25

20

15

10

0
2011 2014 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Current AARR Required AARR for 2030 Required AARR for 2030
national target (lower bound) national target (higher bound)

Source: Author’s

18 ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN VIET NAM:

 FIGURE 11B: EARLY MARRIAGE (%)

25

20

15

10

0
2011 2014 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Current AARR Required AARR for 2030 national target

Source: Author’s

Conclusion: Viet Nam faces a major challenge • Implement social protection and education
to achieve SDG 5.3 as its early marriage rate is grants to eliminate household poverty, a key
increasing, rather than decreasing. driver of child marriage.

What can be done to accelerate progress • Implement social behaviour change

towards achievement of SDG 5? communication to end norms and practices
that condone child marriage and gender
• Support girls to make informed and stereotypes.
empowered decisions affecting their lives,
including ensuring access to education and
other social services.

• Promote dissemination and communication

activities to raise awareness in ending
harmful practices, including child marriage,
among families and communities.

ASSESSING PROGRESS AND ESTIMATING REQUIRED EFFORTS - AN AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF REDUCTION (AARR) 19
ANALYSIS ACROSS SOCIAL SECTORS
3.4. GOAL 6: CLEAN WATER AND monitoring of SDG target 6.1 is the “proportion of
SANITATION population using safely managed drinking water
services” and of SDG target 6.2. is the “proportion
SDG 6.1: By 2030, achieve universal and of population using safely managed sanitation
equitable access to safe and affordable drinking services, including a hand-washing facility.”These
water for all. two indicators are the highest criteria in the
SDG 6.2: By 2030, achieve access to adequate JMP ladder by WHO and UNICEF, representing
and equitable sanitation and hygiene for all and an ambitious new global norm for monitoring
end open defecation, paying special attention household drinking water and sanitation services
to the needs of women and girls and those in (WHO 2017). Data for these two indicators are
vulnerable situations. only available from 2020-2021 SDGCW and not
for previous MICSs3. At the beginning of 2023,
VSDG 6.1: By 2030, ensure full and equitable the Joint Monitoring Programme by WHO and
access to safe and affordable water for all. UNICEF published data for these two indicators
for each country. Viet Nam used the data from
Since 1990, the World Health Organization/ 2020-2021 SDGCW to calculate. Accordingly,
UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme for 57.9 per cent of Vietnamese population used
Water Supply and Sanitation (JMP) has used safely managed water (SDG 6.1.1) and 43.9 per
simple improved water sources and sanitation cent of the population used safely managed
services to monitor progress of the Millennium sanitation facilities.
Development Goal (MDG) 7c in water supply
and sanitation across countries. Table 5 indicates The roapmap for SDG implementation by 2030
that the use of improved water sources and (the Decision#681/QD-TTg) issued in 2021 does
sanitation facilities has increased remarkably not have a specific target for the SDG 6.2 related
over the years. By 2020, about 98 per cent to safely managed sanitation facilities. This is a
of the population had access to improved big gap in the roadmap for SDG implementation
water sources and 92 per cent benefited from of Viet Nam and it should be added in the
improved sanitation facilities. The AARR for the upcoming roadmap. In order to calculate the
SDG 6.1 indicator was -3.3 per cent during 1995- SDG 6.2, this report assumes the target for 2030
2020. for safely managed sanitation facilities of 95 per
cent.
Under the 2030 Sustainable Agenda, targets
3 Compared to the two respective MDG indicators of MDGs,
for SDG 6.1 and 6.2 are much more ambitious the two new indicators required more data collected, such
than the previous Millennium Development as the quality of water and methods used for emptying
and removal of excreta from improved sanitation facilities.
Goal (MDG) 7c. The indicator selected for global These data started to be collected from 2020-2021 SDGCW
and were not collected in previous MICS.

20 ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN VIET NAM:

 TABLE 5. SDG 6.1 AND 6.2 INDICATORS

Safely man- Improved sani- Safely managed

Improved wa- aged drinking tation facilities sanitation facili-
ter source (%) water(%) (%) ties(%)

1995 45.2 27.3

2000 51.8 44.1

2006 89.0 64.3

2011 92.0 73.8

2014 92.0 79.2

2020 98.1 57.9 92.1 43.9

2030 (national target) 95.0 95.0*

Current AARR (%) -3.4 -4.8

Required AARR for 2030 -5.1 -0.8

*Assuming the 2030 target is 95 per cent.

Source: Author’s

Figure 12 indicates that the achievement of the In 2020, the indicator of safely managed drinking
target of 95 per cent for SDG 6.1 is a significant water (with a lower target) was 57.9 per cent,
challenge requiring an annual growth rate of 5.1 while the indicator for safely managed sanitation
per cent. In comparison, the growth rate of the facilities was 88.5 per cent. Since the national
improved water source indicator (with a lower targets for SDG 6.1 and SDG 6.2 are both 95 per
target) during 1995-2020 was only 3.4 per cent. cent, there remains a significant challenge for
Similarly, the target for SDG 6.2 of 95 per cent Viet Nam to achieve these goals by 2030 taking
seems to require only an annual growth rate of into account challenges related to climate
8.0 per cent of people using safely managed change and environmental degradation.
sanitation facilities. Meanwhile, the annual
growth rate of improved sanitation facilities for
1995-2020 was only 4.8 per cent.

ASSESSING PROGRESS AND ESTIMATING REQUIRED EFFORTS - AN AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF REDUCTION (AARR) 21
ANALYSIS ACROSS SOCIAL SECTORS
 FIGURE 12: REQUIRED PROGRESS TO ACHIEVE SDG 6

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Safely managed drinking water Safely managed sanitation facilities

Source: Author’s

Conclusion: There is a significant challenge to • Promote sustainable access to and use of

achieve SDG 6.1 and SDG 6.2 by 2030. improved sanitation and water supply in
communes, schools and health centres.
What can be done to accelerate progress
towards achievement of SDG 6? • Establish innovative public-private
partnerships with the safe water and
• Build capacity for national and local sanitation sector to improve the availability
governments to effectively utilize and and affordability of household water
facilitate market-based solutions and filtration, hand-washing equipment, and
technical innovations for safely managed latrine construction.
sanitation and drinking water. Government
and sector partners to have the capacity • Increase coordination with banks
to design, implement and monitor safely and microfinance organizations for
managed and resilient WASH services. latrine construction and water system
improvements.
• Engage with communities to build markets
for safe and resilient water, sanitation and
hygiene (WASH) services.

22 ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN VIET NAM:

 Table 6 indicates that the use of clean fuels
increased substantially from 34.5 per cent in
2006 to 87.9 per cent in 2020, with a respectable
AARR of -6.7 per cent. If this rate is maintained,
the target rate of 100 per cent can be achieved
by 2030.
3.5 GOAL 7: RENEWABLE ENERGY TABLE 6. SDG 7.1 INDICATOR
SDG 7.1: By 2030, ensure universal access to
Primary reliance on
affordable, reliable and modern energy services. clean fuels (%)

The indicator for SDG 7.1 is the “proportion of 2006 34.5

population with primary reliance on clean fuels
and technology”. The SDGCW 2020 used the 2011 53.6
“percentage of household members living in 2014 58.4
households using clean fuels and technologies
for cooking, space heating, and lighting” (Table 2020 87.9
TC4.7 in the 2020 Report) as the monitoring
2030 (global target) 100
indicator for SDG 7.1.
AARR (%) -6.7
Before 2020, MICS used the indicator “the
proportion of population using solid fuels as the Required AARR for 2030
primary source of domestic energy for cooking”. global target -1.3
Since fuel can be categorized into solid or non- Source: Author’s
solid/clean fuel, the “proportion of population
using clean fuels as the primary source for
cooking” for the 2006-2014 period can be Figure 13 indicates the primary reliance on clean
calculated. This indicator could be comparable fuels trends. If the current AARR is maintained,
to SDG 7.1 indicator4. Viet Nam can achieve the rate of 100 per cent by
2022. However, there could be major challenges
for ethnic minority people. For example, in 2020,
the use of clean fuels and technologies was very
low in Mong households (12.8 per cent), rather
low in Tay, Thai, Muong and Nung households
(56.3 per cent), while very high in Kinh/Hoa
households (92.7 per cent).
4 However, they are not the same, since the SDG 7.1
indicator is the primary reliance on clean fuels and
technology for cooking, heating, and lighting, while the
MICS indicator pre-2020 was only calculated for cooking. In
2020, the proportion of population using primarily clean
fuels for cooking, heating, and lighting was 86 per cent,
while the proportion of population using primarily clean
fuels for cooking was 87.9 per cent.

ASSESSING PROGRESS AND ESTIMATING REQUIRED EFFORTS - AN AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF REDUCTION (AARR) 23
ANALYSIS ACROSS SOCIAL SECTORS
 FIGURE 13: PRIMARY RELIANCE ON CLEAN FUELS (%)

180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2006 2011 2014 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Current AARR Required AARR for 2030 global target

Source: Author’s

Conclusion: On-track.

What can be done to accelerate progress

towards achievement of SDG 7?

• Investment in increasing access to use of

clean fuels for households.
3.6. GOAL 8: GOOD JOBS AND
• Providing incentives for households to ECONOMIC GROWTH
use clean energy and for firms to develop
suitable technology. Goal 8.7: Take immediate and effective
measures to eradicate forced labour, end modern
slavery and human trafficking and secure the
prohibition and elimination of the worst forms
of child labour, including recruitment and use of
child soldiers, and by 2025 end child labour in all
its forms.

24 ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN VIET NAM:

VSDG 8.7: Take timely and effective measures to TABLE 7. SDG 8.7 INDICATOR
eradicate forced labour, end modern slavery and
human trafficking and prevent and eliminate Child labour
(children of 5- 14, %)
child labour in all its forms.
2000 26.8
Table 7 indicates a decrease in child labour from 2006 14.5
26.8 per cent in 2000 to 6.9 per cent in 2020.
2011 9.5
However, the figure is not steady as the child
labour rate increased from 9.5 per cent in 2011 2014 16.4
to 16.4 per cent in 2014, before falling to 6.9 per 2020 6.9
cent in 2020. Hence, there is still potential for the 2025 (national target) 8
rate to rise again.
2030 (national target) 7
Current AARR 5.41
Required AARR for 2025
national target -3.0
Required AARR for 2030
national target -0.59
Source: Author’s

Figure 14 indicates that by 2020, Viet Nam had

already achieved the national target for 2025
and 2030.

FIGURE 14: CHILD LABOUR (%)

30

25

20

15

10

0
2000 2006 2011 2014 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Current AARR Required AARR for 2025 national target Required AARR for 2030 national target

Source: Author’s

ASSESSING PROGRESS AND ESTIMATING REQUIRED EFFORTS - AN AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF REDUCTION (AARR) 25
ANALYSIS ACROSS SOCIAL SECTORS
Conclusion: Targets for 2025 and 2030
achieved and efforts required to maintain these
achievements.

What can be done to accelerate progress

towards achievement of SDG 8?

• Develop concerted and sustained efforts to 3.7 GOAL 16: PEACE AND JUSTICE
address child labour from a child protection
SDG 16.2: End abuse, exploitation, trafficking,
angle that considers the full range of
and all forms of violence against and torture of
vulnerabilities.
children.
• Conduct research and share knowledge to
Table 8 indicates that the rate of violent
fill data gaps in key areas of child labour, such
punishment by caretakers while declining, is
as forced labour and trafficking of children.
still high in Viet Nam at 72.4 per cent in 2020 –
• Engage the business sector to protect slightly lower than the world average of 74.5 per
children from child labour in supply and cent, according to the UNICEF database. There
value chains, and at community level. is still much work to significantly reduce this
rate. At this current AARR, the predicted rate of
• -Provide social support and care services to violent punishment by caregivers would still be
vulnerable families to prevent and eliminate high, at around 60 per cent in 2030.
child labour by helping reduce social
vulnerability, exclusion and strengthen
resilience to cope with shocks and strains.
TABLE 8. SDG 16.2 INDICATOR

Violent punishment
by caregivers (%)
2006 93.3
2011 73.9
2014 68.4
2020 72.4
Current AARR (%) 1.76
Required AARR for 2030
34.8
(%)
Source: Author’s

26 ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN VIET NAM:

 FIGURE 15: PUNISHMENT BY CAREGIVERS (%)

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2006 2011 2014 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Current AARR Required AARR for 2030

Source: Author’s

Figure 15 indicates there is a large gap in 2025 and 100 per cent in 2030. If the current
between current progress in reducing violent AARR of -1.5 per cent is kept, the national targets
punishment of caretakers and achieving SDG can be achieved by 2025 and 2030.
16.2’s target. Even with significant efforts from
TABLE 9. SDG 16.9 INDICATOR
the government, it is still difficult to reduce the
rate from 72.4 per cent in 2020 to close to zero in
Birth registration (%)
less than 10 years.
2000 72.2
Conclusion: Significant challenges remain to 2006 87.6
achieve SDG 16.2 on ending abuse, exploitation,
2011 95.0
trafficking and all forms of violence against and
torture of children. 2014 96.1
2020 98.1
Goal 16.9: By 2030, provide legal identity for all,
2025 (target) 98.5
including birth registration.
2030 (target) 100.0
VSDG 16.8: By 2030, provide legal identity for Current AARR (%) -1.5
all, including birth registration.
Required AARR for
-0.1
Table 9 and Figure 16 indicate the birth 2025 national target
registration rate, which increased from 72.2 per Required AARR for
-0.2
cent in 2000 to 98.1 per cent in 2020. This current 2030 national target
rate is close to the national target of 98.5 per cent Source: Author’s

ASSESSING PROGRESS AND ESTIMATING REQUIRED EFFORTS - AN AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF REDUCTION (AARR) 27
ANALYSIS ACROSS SOCIAL SECTORS
 FIGURE 16: BIRTH REGISTRATION (%)

120.0

100.0

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0
2000 2006 2011 2014 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Current AARR Required AARR for 2025 national target Required AARR for 2030 national target

Conclusion: SDG 16.9 on providing legal identity • Strengthen life skills education for children,
for all, including birth registration by 2030, is on- focusing on prevention and responses to
track and nearly achieved. bullying and violence.

What can be done to accelerate progress • Develop policies and capacity for specialized
towards achievement of SDG 16? child protection services, including
alternative care, respite care for families of
• Reform the legal framework on child children with disabilities and other support
protection and justice for children in line services for children with disabilities, psycho-
with international children’s rights norms social support, rehabilitation and recovery
and standards to ensure access to services, services for child victims of violence and
full protection and the realization of rights for exploitation.
all children under 18 years of age, especially
as it relates to all forms of violence against • Deploy positive parenting programmes
children. to prevent violence against children
that contribute to a stimulating, loving,
• Develop a comprehensive child protection protective environment for young children
system to provide prevention, early and increase demand for quality integrated
interventions and responses to violence early childhood development services.
against children, including development
of the social work profession with special • Continue to implement awareness raising
attention to children. and broader social and behaviour change
when it comes to violence against children
• Strengthen child justice specialization and and particularly violent discipline at home,
institutional capacity within the police, since its acceptance is widespread in society.
procuracy, courts and legal aid to increase
access to justice and protection of all children
in contact with the law.

28 ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN VIET NAM:

 © UNICEF Viet Nam\ shutterstock.com

ASSESSING PROGRESS AND ESTIMATING REQUIRED EFFORTS - AN AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF REDUCTION (AARR) 29
ANALYSIS ACROSS SOCIAL SECTORS
4. CONCLUSION

This analysis briefly assesses the progress made vigilance is key as there are examples of progress
towards achievement of SDG indicators included being reversed, such as with the Early Childhood
in the Viet Nam Sustainable Development Goals Development Index in 2020, the violent
on Children and Women (SDGCW) survey and punishment rate in 2020, the child labour rate in
calculates the Annual Rate of Reduction across 2014 and the early marriage rate in 2020. Extra
social sectors to assess additional efforts needed efforts are needed to monitor these indicators
to achieve SDGs. The paper shows that Viet Nam when progress fluctuates or becomes stagnant.
has taken considerable steps to attain a number
of SDG indicators, especially on health, education Acknowledgements
at primary and lower secondary levels, water
This analysis draws from the Viet Nam Sustainable
and sanitation, birth certificate provision and
Development Goals on Children and Women
child labour.
(SDGCW) survey carried out in 2020-2020 by
Of the 16 reviewed indicators, 56.3 per cent Viet Nam General Statistics Office (GSO) in
have either been achieved or are on-track. Yet, collaboration with other government ministries
there are still major challenges ahead to reach and agencies as part of UNICEF’s Multiple
national and global targets for certain indicators, Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) programme
especially the early childhood development and previous waves. The analysis presented
indicator (Education SDG 4), early marriage rate was commissioned by UNICEF Viet Nam. It was
(Gender Equality SDG 5), safely managed water undertaken by Hoang Linh Vu and reviewed by
and sanitation taking into account challenges relevant programme sections of UNICEF Viet
related to climate change and environmental Nam (including Social Policy and Governance,
degradation (Clean Water and Sanitation SDG Education, Child Survival, Development and
6), and significant challenges to achieve the Environment and Research, Planning, Monitoring
punishment by caregivers’ rate (Peace and Justice and Evaluation Unit).
SDG 16). These are areas where Viet Nam needs
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