Biology investigatory project

Human population and growth

BY

R. Judah Snehan
 Index

S. No Content Pg. No

1 Certificate

2 Acknowledgements

3 Introduction

4 Project Report on Human population and growth

5 History of human population

6 Population demographics

7 Attributes of human population

8 Population fluctuations

9 Predicted population growth

10 Population explosion

11 Growth models & population dynamics

12 Population pyramids

13 Conclusion

14 Bibliography
Introduction:

Human beings are always found in groups, which compete for resources found in each area, to

sustain their lives. Such groups of individuals are termed as population. In demographics, the world

population is the total number of humans currently living. It was estimated by the United Nations to

have exceeded eight billion in mid-November 2022. It took over 200,000 years of

human prehistory and history for the human population to reach one billion and only 219 years more

to reach 8 billion. Individuals from different groups also potentially interbreed among themselves to

increase their number. This is known as population growth, a phenomenon that is becoming a

growing problem nowadays. Human population growth has been a topic of great concern and

fascination for centuries. As the population continues to expand at an unprecedented rate, reaching 8

billion people in 2023, the implications of this growth extend beyond the sheer number of

individuals. This investigatory project aims to delves into the complex dynamics of human

population growth, exploring its growth and its implications.

The study of human population and its growth is crucial in understanding the dynamics of human

societies and their impact on the environment. This project report aims to explore various aspects of

human population, including its growth patterns, factors influencing growth, consequences, and

potential solutions. Human population growth has not been uniform throughout history. Initially, the

growth was slow, but with advancements in agriculture, medicine, and technology, population

growth has accelerated significantly. Currently, the world population is estimated to be around 7.9

billion and is projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050. Several factors contribute to population growth,

including fertility rates, mortality rates, and migration. Additionally, migration patterns impact

population growth by redistributing populations between regions. However, rapid population growth

brings about various challenges, such as environmental strain, resource scarcity, urbanization, and

economic implications. By addressing these challenges through education, healthcare, sustainable

development practices, and effective urban planning, societies can strive for a balanced and

sustainable approach to population growth that ensures the well-being of current and future

generations.
History of human population:

Estimates of the population of the world at the time agriculture emerged in around 10,000 BC have

ranged between 1 million and 15 million. By contrast, it is estimated that around 50–60 million

people lived in the combined eastern and western Roman Empire in the 4th century AD. The Plague

of Justinian caused Europe's population to drop by around 50% between the 6th and 8th centuries

AD. The population of Europe was more than 70 million in 1340. From 1340 to 1400, the world's

population fell from an estimated 443 million to 350–375 million, with the Indian

subcontinent suffering the most tremendous loss and Europe suffering the Black

Death pandemic. The population of China decreased from 123 million in 1200 to 65 million in

1393, presumably from a combination of Mongol invasions, famine, and plague. By the end of the

20th century, scholarly consensus favoured an estimate of roughly 55 million people, but numbers

from various sources have ranged from 10 million to 100 million. During the

European Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions, the life expectancy of children increased

dramatically. Between 1700 and 1900, Europe's population increased from about 100 million to over

400 million
The global population, which stood at approximately 1 billion in 1800, experienced a seismic shift in

the ensuing centuries. Rapid advancements in medicine and public health practices resulted in

significant declines in mortality rates, particularly among infants and children. The discovery and

widespread use of antibiotics, the development of vaccines, and the implementation of sanitation

measures contributed to longer lifespans and healthier populations.

Many countries in the developing world have experienced extremely rapid population growth since

the early 20th century, due to economic development and improvements in public health. China's

population rose from approximately 430 million in 1850 to 580 million in 1953, and now stands at

over 1.3 billion. The population of the Indian subcontinent, which was about 125 million in 1750,

increased to 389 million in 1941; today, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are collectively home to

about 1.63 billion people.

As of 2012, the global sex ratio is approximately 1.01 males to 1 female. Approximately 26.3% of

the global population is aged under 15, while 65.9% is aged 15–64 and 7.9% is aged 65 or over. The

median age of the world's population is estimated to be 31 years in 2020, and is expected to rise to

37.9 years by 2050.

According to the World Health Organization, the global average life expectancy is 73.3 years as of

2020, with women living an average of 75.9 years and men approximately 70.8 years. In 2010, the

global fertility rate was estimated at 2.44 children per woman. In June 2012, British researchers

calculated the total weight of Earth's human population as approximately 287 million tonnes

(630 billion pounds), with the average person weighing around 62 kilograms (137 lb).

The Han Chinese are the world's largest single ethnic group, constituting over 19% of the global

population in 2011.[85] The world's most-spoken languages are English (1.132B), Mandarin

Chinese (1.117B), Hindi (615M), Spanish (534M) and French (280M). More than three billion

people speak an Indo-European language, which is the largest language family by number of

speakers. Standard Arabic is a language with no native speakers, but the total number of speakers is

estimated at 274 million people

(i)Natality – Also known as birth rate, it is the number of people born during a given period. An

increased birth rate in turn causes the number of people in a population to grow. The number of live

births is normally taken from a universal registration system for births; population counts from

a census, and estimation through specialized demographic techniques. In 2012 the average global

birth rate was 19.611 according to the World Bank. The average global birth rate was 18.1 births per

1,000 total population in 2021. This means per 1,000 total population equates to approximately 4.3

births per second or about 259 births per minute for the world.

(ii) Mortality – The term mortality refers to the number of deaths in the population during a given

time frame. It causes a decrease in the number of people in the population. Mortality rate is typically

expressed in units of deaths per 1,000 individuals per year. mortality rates can be seen as calculated

using (d/p) . 10n, where d represents the deaths from whatever cause of interest is specified that occur

within a given time period, p represents the size of the population in which the deaths occur, and 10n

is the conversion factor from the resulting fraction to another unit 

(iii) Immigration – Immigration refers to the number of individuals of the same species, moving from

one area to another during a particular period, causing the population to increase or grow. In 2017

the United Nations (UN) Department of Economic and Social Affairs reported a worldwide total of

258 million people living in a country other than the one where they originally held citizenship,

including people who immigrated in previous years. Research finds that immigration has positive

economic effects on the native population. Development economists argue that reducing barriers to

labor mobility between developing countries and developed countries would be one of the most

efficient tools of poverty reduction. Positive net immigration can soften the demographic dilemma in

the aging global North.

another area, resulting in a decrease in population and its growth. Demographers examine push and

pull factors for people to be pushed out of one place and attracted to another. There can be a desire to

escape negative circumstances such as shortages of land or jobs, or unfair treatment. Patterns of

emigration have been shaped by numerous economic, social, and political changes throughout the

world in the last few hundred years. For instance, millions of individuals fled poverty, violence, and

political turmoil in Europe to settle in the Americas and Oceania during the 18th, 19th, and 20th

centuries. Likewise, millions left South China in the Chinese diaspora during the 19th and early 20th

centuries.

A Japanese poster
promoting emigration to
Brazil

It's clearly visible that the two factors Natality (N) and Immigration (I) increase a population, thus

increasing population whereas, Mortality (M) and Emigration (E) decrease the population. The

population density (Pt) at a given point of time is often given as:

 Pt =P0 + (N + I) – (M + E)

 Where P0 is the initial population density.

Population size fluctuates at differing rates in differing regions. Nonetheless, population growth has

been the long-standing trend on all inhabited continents, as well as in most individual states. During

the 20th century, the global population saw its greatest increase in known history, rising from about

1.6 billion in 1900 to over 6 billion in 2000 as the whole world entered the early phases of what has

come to be called the "demographic transition". Some of the key factors contributing to this increase

included the lessening of the mortality rate in many countries by improved sanitation and medical

advances, and a massive increase in agricultural productivity attributed to the Green Revolution. By

2000, there were approximately ten times as many people on Earth as there had been in 1700.

However, this rapid growth did not last. During the period 2000–2005, the United Nations estimates

that the world's population was growing at an annual rate of 1.3% (equivalent to around 80 million

people), down from a peak of 2.1% during the period 1965–1970. Globally, although the

population growth rate has been steadily declining from its peak in 1968, growth still remains

high in Sub-Saharan Africa.

In fact, during the 2010s, Japan and some countries in Europe began to reduce in population, due

to sub-replacement fertility rates
In 2019, the United Nations reported that the rate of population growth continues to decline due to

the ongoing global demographic transition. If this trend continues, the rate of growth may diminish

to zero by 2100, concurrent with a world population plateau of 10.9 billion. However, this is only

one of many estimates published by the UN; in 2009, UN population projections for 2050 ranged

between around 8 billion and 10.5 billion. An alternative scenario is given by the statistician Jorgen

Randers, who argues that traditional projections insufficiently consider the downward impact of

global urbanization on fertility. Randers' "most likely scenario" reveals a peak in the world

population in the early 2040s at about 8.1 billion people, followed by decline. Adrian Raftery,

a University of Washington professor of statistics and of sociology, states that "there's a 70 percent

probability the world population will not stabilize this century. Population, which had sort of fallen

off the world's agenda, remains a very important issue.

Population growth increased significantly as the Industrial Revolution gathered pace from 1700

onwards. The last 50 years have seen a yet more rapid increase in the rate of population growth due

to medical advances and substantial increases in agricultural productivity, particularly beginning in

the 1960s, made by the Green Revolution. In 2017 the United Nations Population Division projected

that the world's population will reach about 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100.

In the future, the world's population is expected to peak, after which it will decline due to economic

reasons, health concerns, land exhaustion and environmental hazards. According to one report, it is

very likely that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the 21st century. The

population pattern of less-developed regions of the world in recent years has been marked by

gradually declining birth rates. These followed an earlier sharp reduction in death rates. This

transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates is often referred to as

the demographic transition.
Population explosion:

The increase in the number of individuals in a group, above a certain level is called population

explosion. Such an increase in the number of individuals is not a static process, and can change

depending on the availability and scarcity of resources. It also depends upon environmental

conditions like the weather and destructive natural calamities like floods, droughts, famines,

earthquakes, amongst many others. 

High Birth rate: An increase in birth rate is the leading reason for the rapid growth of population. In

India, although the birth rate has declined from 45.4 per thousand during the 19th century to about

25.5 per thousand in 2002, it is still considered to be substantially high. Despite proper family

planning, population education and awareness, the birth rate is yet to be controlled.   

Low Death Rate: The phenomenal fall in the death rate in recent years is another important factor

contributing to rapid growth of population. Due to the increasing quality of medicines, health care

facilities, and nutrition, there has been a decrease in the death rate. Moreover, with the development
of better healthcare infrastructure, there has been a decrease in post-natal deaths. There is, in turn, a

decrease in the infant and maternal mortality rate, further leading to a growing population.  

Early Marriage: The practice of early marriage is another major reason for the rapid rise of the

growth rate in India. The age of marriage for girls is 18 years, which is considerably less than the

other countries around the world, which is about 23 years. As a result, there is an increase in

reproductive capacity.  

Social and Religious reasons: In a joint family system, constant pressure from the family contributes

to population explosion. People focus only upon the expansion of the family, with a desire to get a

male child in most cases.  

Growth models & population dynamics:

We Have Two Growth Models Which Describe the Essential Growth Trend During a Population.

These Are

Exponential Growth

In a perfect condition where there's a vast supply of food and resources, the increase will follow an

exponential order. Simplified population models usually start with four key variables including

death, birth, immigration, and emigration. Mathematical models used to calculate changes in

population demographics and evolution hold the of no external influence. Models can be more

mathematically complex where "...several competing hypotheses are simultaneously confronted with

the data." For example, in a closed system where immigration and emigration does not take place,

the rate of change in the number of individuals in a population can be described by considering a

population of size N and birth rate represented as

b, death rate as d
If, (b–d) = r,

The rate at which a population increases in size if there are no density-dependent forces regulating

the population is known as the intrinsic rate of increase(r). This equation is often represented with a

graph that features a J shaped curve.

The derivative dN/dt  is the rate of increase of the population. Thus r is the maximum theoretical rate

of increase of a population per individual – that is, the maximum population growth rate.

Logistic Growth

This model defines the concept of ‘survival of the fittest’. Thus, it considers the very fact that

resources in nature are exhaustible. The limit of resources beyond which it cannot support any

number of organisms can be defined as the carrying capacity. The carrying capacity can be

represented as K.

The availability of limited resources cannot show exponential growth. As a result to which the graph

will have a lag phase, followed by an exponential phase, then a declining phase and ultimately an

asymptote. This is referred to as Verhulst-Pearl Logistic Growth  and the  logistic equation:
where N is the biomass density, r is the maximum per-capita rate of change, and K is the carrying

capacity of the population. 

As it is a separable differential equation, the population may be solved explicitly, producing

a logistic function:

N(t) = K/1 + Ae-rt

Where A = K/P0 – 1 and P0 is the initial population at time 0

Population Pyramids

There are three types of population pyramids:

1. Expansive Pyramid

It is triangular in shape wherein each age bracket displays a bar shorter than the one

preceding it, symbolising that more people die as we progress through the pyramid. A large

base shows a high birth rate. The top of the graph shows a lesser life expectancy of a

particular region.
2. Constrictive Pyramid

With a small reduction within the younger group, it's the opposite of the expansive pyramid.

This shows that due to good living conditions, life expectancy is on the higher side indicating

a high number of older citizens. Despite this, a decrease in population is seen thanks to fewer

birth rates compared to the death rate.

It is rectangular in shape indicating an equal distribution of individuals across all age groups.

A slight tapering at the highest denotes more death occurring among the older people, which

is natural. A stable birth rate indicates the utilization of contraception measures. 

The study of human population and growth is vital for understanding the challenges and

opportunities associated with population dynamics. By addressing the factors influencing

population growth and considering potential solutions, societies can strive for sustainable

development, ensuring a better quality of life for current and future generations while

minimizing the negative impact on the environment. It is imperative that governments,

organizations, and individuals work together to create policies and initiatives that promote

balanced population growth and sustainable practices.