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GIS based Assessment of Water Resources and Climate Change Impacts across
Bundelkhand Region of India
Gurusamy, B. T1*, Vasudeo, A. D2. and Godbole S. P.3
1
Department of Civil Engineering VNIT, Nagpur, India
2
Department of Civil Engineering VNIT, Nagpur, India
3
Dr. Ambedkar Institute of Management Studies and Research, Nagpur
Corresponding author email: *[email protected]

Abstract: This paper focuses on the Water Resources Assessment (WRA) and Impact of Climate
Change on water resources across Bundelkhand Region of India. Various GIS based Methodologies
for WRA have been used and the results were compared with those adopted by WMO and CWC of
India. The distributions of Runoff and that of Water Retention Capacity of land across the
Bundelkhand region have been presented. The impacts of various climate change scenarios on the
distribution of Rainfall and Potential Evapotranspiration across the region have been analyzed.

Keywords: Water Resources Assessment; Impact of Climate Change on Water; Bundelkhand Region
of India; GIS based Methodologies; Climate Change Scenarios

1. Introduction

In order to standardize a Procedure for Water Resource Assessment (WRA) across a selected
Geographical Region, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) had developed a manual
for WRA. (WMO, 2012). Accordingly to Assess Water Resources for a selected
Geographical Region during the Evaluation period, various influencing factors such as Long-
term simulation of catchment behavior, sustainable and exploitable water, Climate Change
Scenarios, Development scenarios/Land use change need to be taken into account. Hence
analysis about Climate Change Scenarios and its impact during the Evaluation periods
becomes the Sub set of WRA. In the year 1993, the natural flow calculated from the observed
flow at the terminal site of a basin had been used to determine the natural flow of the basin
which had been considered as the available water across the basin in the WRA carried out by
CWC (1993). The development of GIS based WRA models was not enough during those
periods. The catchment behavior had been assumed to be embedded in the runoff pattern
observed at the terminal site of the watershed/basin. In the 2017 Reassessment of Water
Availability in India, WRA models included the criteria specified by the WMO and thereby
various parameters such as land use, land cover, climate and other catchment characterizing
variables were included with the help of GIS based methodologies for the WRA report
published by CWC in the basin wise scale (CWC, 2017). It has been reported by NWDA that
Bundelkhand region of India is one of the water deficit area across India and has been given
first priority position for providing water resources through Ken-Betwa link component of
NRLP of India (NWDA, 2017). The sustained drought occurring over this Region had also
been reported by National Institute for Disaster Management (Gupta, 2014). According to the
report of NIH, the ground water in Bundelkhand is limited to only Weathered rock mantle
and hence the region is suffering for drinking water during Summer months. NIH is also
carrying out sustained research to increase the Ground Water Recharge Potential through

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proper location and design of Artificial Recharge Structures across the region with the help of
GIS based methodologies and implementation of IWRM criteria (NIH, 2018). Many
Research Publication including Thomas (2016) were discussing about the drought
vulnerability across Bundelkhand region using the parameter standardized precipitation index
(SPI). Hence, the focus is directed or diverted towards this Bundelkhand Region of India for
the assessment of water resources and that of climate change impact on water.

2. Materials and Methods

Even though the Chitrakoot District of UP and Datia district of MP are not included in the
Bundelkhand Region as per the Wikipedia based sources, the publication of NIDM about the
boundary of Bundelkhand Region as shown in Fig.1 has been considered in this review paper.

Fig. 1 Location of Bundelkhand Region across MP and UP States of India (Gupta, 2014)

As per the Ganga Basin Report (CWC, 2014) about 3.77% of Sagar district and 5.91% of
Damoh district is lying in the Narmada Basin and those area covering about 790 sq.km is not
included in the analysis. Even though the district area published by National Informatics
Centre (NIC, 2019) of Government of UP an MP are different with respect to that published
by CWC (2014), the district area data provided by CWC has been used to find the weighted
average rainfall across Bundelkhand region using the District wise monthly rainfall data
series published by India Meteorological Department(IMD) and India Water Portal (IWP).

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Fig.2 RCP Scenarios defined by IPCC as a forcing Function applied to Earth System Model
to get Climate Projection (Collins, 2013)

Climate Change Scenarios defined by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

(Collins, 2013) as shown in Fig.2 in the form Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
acting as a forcing function to excite the Earth System Models (ESM) in order to get climate
projection for the future, have been used for the analysis of the Climate Change Impact on the
Temperature and Precipitation across the Bundelkhand Region of India. Even though there
are four such Scenarios had been defined as in Fig.2, the impact of RCP 4.5 alone has been
discussed in this Review Paper. The emissions of all green house gases has been converted
into equivalent CO2 emission. As a review paper no primary data have been presented except
for the organization, interpretation and logical reasoning of the results published by various
literatures based on the hydrological analysis carried out using various GIS based
Methodologies including SWAT based hydrological Modelling.

3. Results and Discussion

The annual average seasonal Monsoon Rainfall as well as Non-Monsoon Rainfall series
across Bundelkhand region has been graphically presented as in Fig.3 and Fig.4 respectively.

Fig.3 Decreasing Pattern of Monsoon Rainfall across Bundelkhand Region of India (IMD)

Fig.4 Pattern of Non-Monsoon Rainfall across Bundelkhand Region of India (IMD)

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The average Monsoon Rainfall after 1990 is observed to be decreased by more than 20 % of
the long term average of monsoon rainfall estimated using 90 years of data from 1901 to
1990. No such decrease has been observed in Non-Monsoon Rainfall pattern.

Fig. 5 Available Annual average Surface Runoff and Surface Storage at selected locations
across Bundelkhand (NWDA, 2014)

Available average annual Surface Runoff volume observed at different locations of

Bundelkhand region has been graphically presented in the Fig.5. The Live Storage Capacities
of two major Reservoirs located in the Betwa portion are also presented. Each of the Betwa
& Ken basin has reported to have more than 7000 MCM annual runoff loss to Yamuna River.

Fig.6 Available Annual Average Surface Runoff across Ken Portion of Bundelkhand
(Himanshu, 2016)

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Fig.7 Distribution of Annual Average Runoff Producing Capacity of Watersheds

(Muthuwatta, 2017) and that of altitudes across Bundelkhand (Nandargi, 2018)

Based on the water balance analysis of Himanshu (2016) over Ken River Basin using Soil
and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), the estimated runoff distribution pattern across Ken
portion of the Bundelkhand Region have been presented in Fig.6. More than 25% of rainfall
has been converted in to runoff in the south end high altitude Vindhyan range region of Ken
Basin. About 45 % of rainfall has been reported as Evapotranspiration across the Ken basin.
Similar attempt had been made by Muthuwatta (2017) to determine the Runoff distribution
pattern across Ganga River Basin (GRB) using SWAT based hydrologic analysis. The
Distribution of annual average Runoff producing capacities of watersheds lying inside the
Bundelkhand region of Ganga Basin alone presented in the Fig.7 and is compared with
corresponding altitude using the terrain topography presented by Nandargi (2018). The
historical attempt to utilize the runoff loss in the form of development of Live Storage
Capacities across the Ken and Betwa basins has been presented in the Fig.8. Because the
Bundelkhand region is located in the downstream side of the Betwa and Ken Basins, the
entire LSC of both basins can be made useable to the Region.

Fig.8 Live Storage Capacities developed across Ken and Betwa sub-basins and available for
Bundelkhand (DSO, 2009 and Rai, 2012)

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Fig.9 Monthly Soil Water Balance and Potential Evapotranspiration and Annual average
Runoff across Betwa portion of Bundelkhand (Sutcliffe, 1981)

Sutcliffe (1981) had presented the monthly variation of Soil Water Balance , Potential
Evapotranspiration (PET) and Runoff across Betwa portion of Bundelkhand as shown in
Fig.9. Highly seasonal characteristics of Rainfall, relatively high runoff coefficient and high
value of PET had caused for severe soil moisture deficit in the summer months to bring down
the dry season as drought prone. A typical Assessment of Water Resources and water demand
across Ken, Betwa and Sind River basins reported by Rai (2012) is shown in Table.1.

Table.1 Typical Assessment of Water Resources and Water Demand across Sub basins
Occupying Bundelkhand Region of India (Rai, 2012)
Basins DWR CWR IWR GWR SMS NGW SWR TWR S/D
Sind 167 13786 33 13986 4890 3442 1888 10220 −3766
Betwa 288 26456 58 26801 7671 5701 11803 25175 −1626
Ken 137 12808 27 12973 5041 3113 8089 16244 +3271
DWR Domestic Water Requirement, IWR Industrial Water Requirement, CWR Crop Water
Requirement, GWR Gross Water Requirement, SMS Soil Moisture Storage, NGW Net
groundwater availability, SWR Surface Water Resources, TWR Total Water Resources, and
S/D Surplus/deficit (All Units in MCM)

Fig.10 Per Capita Water Availability across Ken and Betwa portion of Bundelkhand (CWC)
Using the available Surface Water Resources estimates across Betwa and Ken River Basin
provided by (Rai, 2012), the decreasing trend of Per Capita Water availability across Betwa
and Ken Basin were calculated and presented in the Fig.10.

Table.2 Dynamic Annual GW Resources of Bundelkhand Region of India (CGWB, 2017)

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Current GW

Discharges (MCM)

Annual Extractable
Total Annual GW
Recharge (MCM)

GW Exploitation
GW Resources

Extraction (%)

Categorization
Extraction (MCM)

Total Natural

Stage GW
Industrial &
Domestic
Irrigation
State District

Total
MP Chhatarpur 1035 50 985 576 32 608 62 Safe
MP Damoh 409 26 383 196 27 223 58 Safe
MP Datia 366 18 347 126 14 140 40 Safe
MP Panna 476 27 450 143 22 164 37 Safe
MP Sagar 1094 59 1034 570 34 603 58 Safe
MP Tikamgarh 540 27 513 338 36 374 73 Semi-Critical
UP Banda 633 37 596 361 40 402 67 Safe
UP Chitrakoot 391 25 367 275 25 300 82 Semi-Critical
UP Hamirpur 452 23 429 284 26 309 72 Semi-Critical
UP Jalaun 1131 70 1061 483 40 523 49 Safe
UP Jhansi 894 45 849 392 29 422 50 Safe
UP Lalitpur 421 21 400 287 26 313 78 Semi-Critical
UP Mahoba 229 11 218 177 14 191 88 Semi-Critical
Total 8071 439 7632 4208 365 4573 60 Safe

Table.3 Ground Water Level Scenario across Bundelkhand (CGWB, 2013)

District 2012 Pre- 2012 Post- 2012
District area
District Area in Monsoon Monsoon Monsoon
State in sq.km
(2011) sq.km GW Level GW Level season GW
(NIC, 2019)
(CWC) (mbgl) (mbgl) level rise (m)
MP Chhatarpur 8342.32 8687 5.49-14.88 2.26-9.24 3.23-5.64
MP Datia 2587.42 2691 4.50-27.30 1.90-27.00 0.3-2.6
MP Panna 6825.17 7135 1.90–20.80 0.70–17.65 1.2-3.15
MP Sagar 9858.18 10252 2.63-36.50 1.20-20.21 1.43-16.38
MP Tikamgarh 4873.1 5048 3.34-14.52 2.01-11.31 1.33-3.21
MP Damoh 7068.37 7306 2.62-25.00 0.20-8.55 2.42-16.45
UP Chitrakoot 2964.5 3216 8.60-22.90 2.92-15.43 5.68-7.47
UP Hamirpur 4101.03 4121.9 4.08-29.32 2.22-28.82 0.5-1.86
UP Jalaun 4401.29 4565 1.48-31.20 0.56-29.65 0.92-1.55
UP Jhansi 4874.66 5024 2.95-15.12 2.47-15.07 0.05-0.48
UP Mahoba 2762.6 2884 3.58-12.26 2.90-12.02 0.24-0.68
UP Banda 4359.05 4413 2.75-26.95 1.40-22.50 1.34-4.45
UP Lalitpur 4854.02 5039 3.59-10.58 1.87–5.59 1.72-4.99
Total 67871.71 70381.9 1.48-36.50 0.56-27.00 0.05-16.45

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Based on the Ground Water Estimation Methodology given in GEC (1997), the district wise
estimated dynamic Ground Water Resources across Bundelkhand is shown in Table.2. The
values of district wise percentage Stage Ground Water Extraction as defined, monitored and
published by CGWB (2019) are also shown in the Table.2. The sensitivity of Ground water
level for the Monsoon season is presented in the Table.4 using the Pre-Monsoon and Post-
Monsoon level of Ground Water Table.

Table.4 Comparison of Water Availability and Water Balance Parameters of Ken and Betwa
with that of Ganga, Godavari and all India Basins (CWC, 2017) & (Rai, 2012)

Capita Surface Water

Water LSC in cu.m

2011 population Per
Availability (BCM)

Water Availability
Evapotranspiration

Density of Surface
Per Capita Surface
Name of the Basin

availability (cu.m)

(MCM per sq.km)

Density per sq.km
Rain Fall (BCM)

Potential (BCM)

2011 Population
Natural Runoff

Ground Water
Surface Water

Replenishable

LSC in BCM
& % of Rain
3880 1914 452 1514(BCM) 304
All India 1580 374 252 0.59
(100%) (49.3%) (11.7%) (39%) (7.8%)
Ganga 914 525 172 217 56
1595 382 171 0.61
(India) (100%) (57.4%) (18.8%) (23.8%) (6.1%)
Betwa 47.2 11.8 5.7 29.7 4.4
960 282 350 0.27
basin (100%) (25%) (12.1%) (62.9%) (9.3%)
Godavari 365 117 47 201 44
1604 234 603 0.37
Basin (100%) (32 %) (12.9%) (55.1%) (12%)
Ken 32.6 8.1 3.1 21.4 0.7
1364 214 115 0.29
basin (100%) (24.8%) (9.5%) (65.7%) (2.1%)

Relative magnitude of Water Balance Parameters and Water Resources availability of Ken
and Betwa basin are compared with that Ganga, Godavari and all India Basins as in Table.4.
(Total Rainfall Inflow = Surface Runoff outflow + GW Recharge + Evapotranspiration) is the
equation based on simple Water Balance Model has been used to find actual
Evapotranspiration. The major issue observed from the Table.4 is the relatively high
Evapotranspiration(ET) of Ken and Betwa basin having more than 60% rainfall while that of
Ganga Basin and Godavari basin average ET is respectively about 24% and 55%. Anyhow
based on the Water Balance Analysis across KRB, carried out by Murty (2014) using 25
years data (1985-2009) it has been reported that out of the annual average rainfall of 1132
mm, 23% has been observed as runoff loss and 4% for Ground Water replenishment and the
remaining 73% has been accounted as Evapotranspiration. SWAT based Hydrologic
Modelling had been done by Shakti (2017) to estimate various water balance parameters
across Betwa sub-basin. The model was validated using 28 years from 1976-2003 water
balance data observed by IMD across various meteorological stations located across Betwa
sub basin. The seasonal variation of estimated water balance parameters are shown in Fig.11.

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Maps of (DEC-FEB) temperature and (April-Sep) Precipitation changes in 2016–2035,

2046–2065 and 2081–2100 with respect to 1986–2005 in the RCP4.5 scenario for 75th
percentiles of the distribution of the CMIP5 ensemble are shown in Fig.12 and Fig.13
respectively. This includes both natural variability and inter-model spread. The RCP 4.5
Model based Climate projection predicts a temperature rise of about 0.5 deg per every 10
years as in Fig.12. This may cause for corresponding increase in Potential Evapotranspiration

Fig.11 Seasonal variation of Water Balance Parameters across Betwa Basin (Shakti, 2017)

Fig.12 DEC-FEB Temperature Change across Bundelkhand based on RCP 4.5 (IPCC, 2013)

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Fig.13 APR-SEP Precipitation Change across Bundelkhand based on RCP 4.5 (IPCC, 2013)

Even though the impact of Climate Change Scenario based on RCP4.5 over precipitation
across Bundelkhand is expected to increase as shown in Fig.13, the actual observed Monsoon
Rainfall in the recent years is in deceasing trend.

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

To bring down the impact of Flood and Drought produced by highly seasonal pattern of both
Rainfall and Runoff across Ken and Betwa Basin, Ken-Betwa Link Project with a live storage
capacity more than 2500MCM, at Daudhan dam site has been proposed by NWDA as shown
in Fig.14. As given in Table.4 the LSC as a % of Rainfall in Ken Basins is relatively low, and
to increase the Water Retention Capacity of the Basin, this Project will be highly useful. The
75% dependable yield at the proposed Daudhan dam site having catchment area 19633 sq.km
is estimated to be 6590 MCM. The maximum observed flood in the Ken was 20150 Cumecs
in the year 2005. Muthuwatta (2017) have reported that more than 30% of flood discharge at
Bihar is from Ghaghara and Yamuna Lower Sub-Basin which includes Ken and Betwa river
basins. By proper design of Reservoir Routing using Daudhan Reservoir and Channel
Routing using the Link canal of Length more than 218 km the impact of Flood can be
reduced. Increased water storage capacity across the Bundelkhand can reduce the impact of
Summer drought and also can increase dry season crop productivity. Out of the total
Cultivable Command area of 515210 ha, the enroute Command area is about 60294 ha which
covers the Chhatarpur and Tikamgarh districts of MP and Mahoba and Jhansi districts of UP.
Hence this Project is Recommended for consideration towards successful implementation to
reduce water scarce scenario of Bundelkhand Region.

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Fig.14 Proposed Ken-Betwa Link Project to bring down the drought and to increase dry
season irrigation across Bundelkhand (NWDA, 2010)

USACE (2015), had reported that large volume of water can be stored and recovered beneath
a relatively small surface footprint using properly designed Artificial Recharge Structure
located preferably adjacent to large and flowing water bodies to enhance the capacity of the
system similar to rechargeable battery. This Concept had been named as Aquifer Storage &
Recovery (ASR) Technology. CGWB (2007) had developed a Manual for Artificial Recharge
as a standard for the Efficient Implementation and Operation of ASR System to enhance the
performance of increased Recharge in order to bring down the impact of Flood and Drought.
Owusu, (2017), has reported about the successful adaptation of various ASR system to bring
down the Flood level for the flood-prone areas of northern Ghana in west Africa and to
achieve dry-season irrigation. Hence to enhance the Ground Water Replenishment Potential
and thereby to increase water retention capacity across Bundelkhand, efficient location,
design, implementation, maintenance and management of ASR structures is also
recommended for Consideration. Revelle (1975) had reported a Concept called as Ganges
Water Machine (GWM) to reduce the impact of Flood and Drought produced by highly
seasonal Characteristics of rainfall and Runoff. Accordingly intensified pumped Ground
Water Use before monsoon can increase Sub Surface Storage (SSS) potential of the basin.
Proper design of Recharge Structure will restore SSS water availability. Such Pump-
Recharge-Pump strategy is having similar behavior of Reciprocating Machine and hence
called as Ganges Water Machine. Amarasinghe (2016) has reported that the suitability of the
Ganga basin for the successful implementation GWM concept which depends on the
distribution of Ground Water Consumptive Water Use (CWU) as a percentage of Recharge.
The distribution of Ground Water CWU and the Potential for the application GWM concept
across the Ganga basin including Bundelkhand Region is shown in Fig.15. From this result it
is interpreted that there is reasonable potential for the implementation of GWM across
Yamuna Lower Sub-Basin including Bundelkhand Region. Based on the Report of Khan et

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al. (2014), proper ground water Management through conjunctive water use strategy in the
form of distributed pumping and recharge across Ganga River basin (GRB) with the
implementation of GWM can bring down sizable flood volume in UP below Allahabad.
Hence it is recommended for consideration to implement the GWM concept across
Bundelkhand Region by proper location and design of Artificial Recharge Structure and
ensure the efficient application of Conjunctive Water use Management Strategy in order
enhance GW replenishment potential across the region and to reduce the impact of Flood.

Fig.15 Applicability of GWM Practices as a function of % GW extraction to increase Water

Retention Capacity across Bundelkhand (Amarasinghe, 2016)

Acknowledgements

The research facilities that have been provided by the administration of VNIT, Nagpur, the
water resources data that have been published by Government of India through its Sub-
ordinate organizations such as CWC, CGWB, NWDA, IMD, NRSC and WRIS and Various
Services such as Web, Google Earth, Wikipedia & Search Engines available through internet
communications are acknowledged.

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