Vocabulary of the future

This report references a variety of terms used by futurists to describe

the work they do. At first glance, some can seem confusing. What, for
instance, is the difference between forecasting and foresight? What
does it mean to be futures literate? When does a trend become a mega-
trend? To answer questions such as these, we have collected a glossary
of terms often used in futures thinking.

Futures Studies: The systematic and interdisciplinary exploration of possible,

probable, and preferred futures as well as the myths and worldviews that underlie
them. The identification of these alternative futures has been described by futurist
Sohail Inayatullah as a fluid dance of structure (the weights of history) and agency
(the capacity to influence the world).

Scenarios: Snapshots of plausible, alternative futures. Most often, scenarios are

constructed through the identification of critical uncertainties that are combined in
a 2x2 grid. The resulting four spaces, each combining two polarities of the uncer-
tainties, represent the scenarios, which are then expanded in a process that invol-
ves both analysis and storytelling. Integral to the process is that there are always
multiple competing scenarios. As such, scenarios can never be predictions for the
future. Their function is rather to provoke us to think about the future in new ways
and plan for multiple potentialities.

Strategic foresight: A planning-oriented discipline related to futures studies

and focused on informing and shaping strategic decision-making, guiding policy,
or exploring new markets, products, and services. Strategic foresight combines
methods from futures studies with those used in strategic management.

Anticipation: A broad concept that covers all efforts to know, think about, and
utilise the future and which works both implicitly and explicitly. Becoming aware
of and recognising our anticipatory assumptions is the start of becoming futures
literate.

Futures literacy: The capability to imagine and use alternative futures in different
contexts, including the ability to identify the assumptions that play a part in this
process. Like reading, futures literacy can be trained and acquired on many diffe-
rent levels. UNESCO defines a futures literate person as someone who has acqui-
red the skills needed to decide why and how to consciously use their imagination
to introduce the non-existent future into the present.

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 Sources
Richard Slaughter: Futures for the Third Millennium: Enabling the Forward View (1999).
Sohail Inayatullah: “Futures Studies. Theories and Methods” (2013).
Riel Miller: Transforming the Future: Anticipation in the 21st Century (2018).
N. Larsen, J. K. Mortensen, & R. Miller: “What Is ‘Futures Literacy’ and Why Is It Important?” (2019).
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_studies
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_foresight

Forecasting: The process of making probabilistic statements about the future

based on past and present data. Common applications for forecasting are we-
ather forecasts and economic forecasts. Forecasting is related to (but should not
be confused with) other similar terms such as extrapolation, retrodiction, simula-
tion, and projection.

Backcasting: A planning method that starts with defining a desirable future and
then working backwards to identify trends, developments, policies, and other
changes that connect that specific future to the present in a plausible way.

Megatrends: Long-term trajectories that, for the most part, stay their course even
in turbulent times. We can use megatrends to see the long-term picture through the
short-term fog of uncertainty and rapid change. A rule of thumb is that a mega-
trend must be global in scope and unfold with relative certainty over a long period
of time. Examples include globalisation and economic growth, which have both
been relatively stable in recent history.

Trends: Directions of change over time that are either increasing or decreasing
in strength or frequency. Futurists typically study patterns of change in the STEEP
categories (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political) to deter-
mine ‘normal trends’ or ‘baselines’ which are then probed and examined, often
using scenarios to challenge them and imagine alternative outcomes. Often, coun-
tertrends emerge in response or opposition to the dominant trend.

Wild cards: The ‘jokers’ of futures studies. A wild card is an event or development
with small probability but with a high impact if it occurs. Wild card analysis means
identifying these events and developments and assessing their potential implica-
tions. Pandemics and financial crises are two classic wild cards in that they are
constantly looming and well-known threats; we do not know when they will come
but we know their implications are massive and unpredictable.

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 PA R T 1

Improving
organisational
decision-making
The combination of futures thinking and strategic management is often referred to under the
name ‘strategic foresight’. So, what is strategic foresight, and why do we need it? The short
answer is that it is a set of techniques designed to improve organisational future-readiness
and inform decision-making. It is not a way to predict the future, but a way to uncover the per-
spectives of many different futures in order to facilitate decisions based on that knowledge
today. In the first article of this report, we discuss how the accelerating changes involving glo-
balisation, the Earth’s climate, and technology – not to mention our current health crisis – has
made practicing strategic foresight more important than ever.

Making decisions about the future is something we all do all the time, both as individuals and
on an organisational level. But we are rarely very conscious about what hidden psychological
mechanisms impact our choices. On page 16, we take a closer look at what decision-makers
can learn from behavioural economics and research into biases and heuristics. As we aim to
show, awareness of the biases that cloud our thinking is a necessity in good decision-making.

The current pandemic has shown the importance of planning for the unforeseen. Understand-
ably, this is often easier said than done. There are a great number of unexpected ‘wild cards’
looming on the horizon, each with the potential to drastically change the course of history, so
how do we choose which ones to prepare for – and how much to prepare for them? In fact,
prediction is not the use of wild cards. Rather, they should be used to test the robustness of
strategies: could your organisation survive such scenarios – or even thrive in them? Read about
wild cards and their cousins – the animal kingdom of unexpected events – on page 24.

Futures studies and strategic foresight have been around for decades. So how are the discipli-
nes adapting to new technological opportunities and making those opportunities useful to the
‘end user’ of futures work? On page 32, we look into how combining human cognition and sense-
making with the raw analytical power of artificial intelligence can improve efficiency and make
deeper levels of intelligence-gathering possible. Second, we explore how technology can also
power new ways of conveying the future in more compelling and impactful ways that create
more relevance for strategic decision-making.

In the closing article on page 36, guest writer Dr Adam Vigdor Gordon, Faculty of Management,
Aarhus University, discusses the relationship between futures thinking and strategy, including
how these elements combine to create future-prepared decision-making.
What is strategic canic eruption in Iceland in April 2010
not only disrupted air travel across Eu-
foresight, and why rope for about a week but had an ef-
do you need it? fect that extended all the way to Africa
and Japan. Kenyan flower farm emplo-
yees were out of work because their
crop could not reach Europe, and Nis-
san was forced to halt production of
some models in Japan because cer-
tain parts were not available.2
Pulitzer prize winner and New York Times Change is accelerating and the world
columnist Thomas Friedman argues that is more interconnected, which means
we are in the middle of three giant ac- that your next big opportunity and thre-
celerations – changes involving glo- at will probably not be one you see co-
balisation, the Earth’s climate, and tech- ming. If organisations and governments
nology. These changes are reshaping are not actively looking to the horizon
social and economic life in powerful for early warning signs and budding
ways and putting a premium on ‘lear- opportunities, they will probably be
ning faster and governing and opera- missed and grabbed by someone else.
ting smarter’. These transformative for- This is where strategic foresight can be
ces in markets, climate, and technology of use.
are ‘melding into one giant change’.1 The goal of strategic foresight is not 1 Peter Dizikes:
“Thomas Friedman
The expansion of global commerce to predict the future, but to discover the
examines impact of
and global communication means that perspectives of many different futures global ‘accelerations’”,

we are no longer just interconnected, and use those perspectives to make MIT News (2018),
bit.ly/2KuNLwh.
but also increasingly interdependent. decisions today. Strategic foresight is
The pace, spread, and reach of the co- therefore based on two premises: that 2 Michael Hotchkiss:

ronavirus and subsequent global lock- there is not one future but many possi- “A Risky Proposition:
Has global interde-
down illustrates this better than any- ble futures; and that it is possible today
pendence made us
thing. Globalisation has rendered the to make choices that influence future vulnerable?” Princeton

world a small village, where people can developments. At the same time, the University (2014),
bit.ly/3kStcGx.
interact with minimal barriers. This free process and decision-making includes
movement of people, goods, and ser- relevant actors who can lead develop- 3 Per Andersen &

vices, which has been the stimulus to ments in the desired direction.3 Birgitte Rasmussen:
“Introduction to
social-economic development, has al- By rejecting the notion of a predic-
foresight and foresight
so been instrumental in spreading the table future, strategic foresight seeks processes in practise”

to include many different plausible and Technical University of

virus. The super-spreaders of the go-
Denmark (2014).
ods of globalisation, such as airport possible outcomes, drawing attention
hubs and harbours also facilitated the to assumptions and potential blind 4 Adam Gordon, et al.:
“Escaping the faster
spread of COVID-19. Looking further spots. Though strategic foresight works
horses trap:
back, the 2008 global financial crisis is with exploring the future, the goal is to Bridging strategic fore-
also an example of how crises are no expand the assumptions and alternati- sight and design-
based innovation”,
longer contained to one region or nati- ve futures that form the basis of discus-
Technology Innovation
on; If a crisis is big enough, the ripple sion and present day decision-ma- Management
effects show up everywhere. The vol- king.4 Review (2019).

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FOTO:RICHARD MASONER
In the 1970s and 1980s, strategic fore- Strategic foresight provides practical
sight was often used in connection with tools and the possibility to experiment,
preparing the enterprise for unforesee- explore, and create preferred futures.
able future developments, whereas the This exploration and experimentation is
discipline’s use today is often more ac- essential to dealing successfully with
tive, aiming to influence and shape fu- volatility and unpredictability. Classical
ture developments and internal stra- planning techniques and strategy pla-
tegy. A key strength of using foresight ce emphasis on predictability and effi-
tools is that they improve organisations’ ciency.7 These techniques are inadequ-
and governments’ long-term planning, ate to deal with the inevitable changes,
early warning recognition, learning and disruptions, and shocks that are taking
innovation processes, and the general place currently and which will continue
ability to react to changes in the stra- in the coming decade.
tegic surroundings.5 Strategic foresight Traditional modelling techniques are 5 C. Daheim & G. Urs
“Corporate foresight
processes are also used to involve bro- vulnerable to small shifts in underlying
in Europe: from trend
ader actor groups (customers, supp- assumptions and are not sufficient to based logics to open
liers, researchers, competitors, NGOs, deal with volatile and unpredictable foresight”, Technology
Analysis & Strategic
etc.) in joint strategy development and environments. The field of strategic fo-
Management (2008).
innovation. resight on the other hand utilises quali-
tative, exploratory, and narrative tools 6 Adam Wernick:
“A new book explores
WHY IS STRATEGIC FORESIGHT to aid decision-makers in expanding
how to survive the ’Age
IMPORTANT? their worldview and recognising a ran- of Accelerations’”,
Strategic foresight prevents organisa- ge of possible and plausible out- The World (2016),
bit.ly/2UTd51a.
tions from being blindsided. While or- comes, which can be further tested
ganisations understand their sector and and developed to suit a certain strate- 7 Martin Reeves et al.:

the short-term trends shaping their en- gic environment.8 ”Your Strategy Needs
a Strategy”, Harvard
vironment and industry, many orga- Imagine a future with fleets of auto-
Business Review (2012),
nisations are caught unaware of the nomous buses and cars that navigate bit.ly/2USQgKS.

long-term trends and developments through city streets. Ridesharing ser-

8 Adam Gordon, et al.:
in other sectors and industries. Think – vices utilise sophisticated data to dis-
“Escaping the faster
Kodak, Blockbuster, horse-drawn car- patch autonomous vehicles to pick up horses trap: Bridging

riages. multiple passengers who are travelling strategic foresight

and design-based
For organisations to survive and thri- a similar route. In this future, the way we
innovation”, Technology
ve, and for governments to meet the understand public and private trans- Innovation Management

needs of their present and future con- port and the definition of commuting is Review (2019).

stituents, there are two key ingredients: upended.9 This future is, however, in- 9 Tyler Duvall et al.:
resilience and propulsion. As Friedman complete without simultaneously imagi- “A new look at

puts it, to survive in the face of rapid ning the supporting infrastructure, phy- autonomous-vehicle
infrastructure”,
change, ‘…you want resilience. You ne- sical and digital tools, as well as the skills McKinsey (2020),
ed to be able to take a blow, because required to make this future a reality. mck.co/35WypsF.

you do not know when the disrup- What role will the public sector play,
tion is going to come, but there will be and what will the private sector bring to
disruptions. At the same time, you want the table? What behavioural changes
propulsion. You want to be able to move will be required to share a vehicle with
ahead’.6 strangers? There are many factors to

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consider and even more unknown fac-
tors that will emerge as the transition to
autonomous vehicles takes place.
When dealing with ‘unpredictable pro-
blems of the future’, there are two pos-
sible routes:

1. Pretend the problem does not exist

and suppose the future will look like
the past.

2. Acknowledge uncertainty as a fun-

damental premise of life and de-
velop scenarios to inform decision-
making, not to predict, but to learn
what actions you might need to
take to prepare for a future that is
different than today.

Which will you choose? ¢ FOTO:JIMFLIX