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Early Warning and Response Systems in Conflict Prevention

This document discusses approaches to conflict resolution, with a focus on conflict prevention and early warning response systems. It defines conflict prevention as actions taken to prevent disputes from escalating into violence, through initiatives like preventive diplomacy, fact-finding missions, and sanctions. Early warning response systems are described as processes for anticipating and understanding the potential outbreak or escalation of violent conflict by continuously monitoring conflict indicators and providing timely warnings to decision-makers, so prevention measures can be implemented. The key aspects of an effective early warning system are that warnings are evidence-based, concise, and meet the needs of recipients to allow sufficient time for preventative actions.

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Raphael Kerimit
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
47 views7 pages

Early Warning and Response Systems in Conflict Prevention

This document discusses approaches to conflict resolution, with a focus on conflict prevention and early warning response systems. It defines conflict prevention as actions taken to prevent disputes from escalating into violence, through initiatives like preventive diplomacy, fact-finding missions, and sanctions. Early warning response systems are described as processes for anticipating and understanding the potential outbreak or escalation of violent conflict by continuously monitoring conflict indicators and providing timely warnings to decision-makers, so prevention measures can be implemented. The key aspects of an effective early warning system are that warnings are evidence-based, concise, and meet the needs of recipients to allow sufficient time for preventative actions.

Uploaded by

Raphael Kerimit
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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1.

Understanding Conflict II & Approaches in Conflict Resolution


Introduction
Conflict is a prevalent phenomenon, and there are many different types (political,
social, economic, religious etc.) all of which may be destructive or constructive.
Meaning violent or nonviolent conflict. These can also be characterized according to
the groups or individuals involved. Similarly, often some Scholars describe conflicts
according to different phases to differentiate the levels, for example, ‘pre-conflict’,
‘confrontation’, ‘crisis’, ‘resolution’ and ‘post-conflict’.
The categorizations of these levels are useful in analyzing the conflict situation, but we
mustn’t forget that conflicts evolve; conflicts aren’t static, they transform and even
superimpose themselves one on top of another, altering over time and depending on
events.
Conflicts are often caused by more than one of these factors. In violent conflicts there
are often multiple perceptions of causes; they are almost never simply the
confrontation between two groups. Most violent conflicts result from deeper
differences of the past, present when two or more groups have incompatible views,
ideas, ideals and perceptions.
Conflicts can also result from the clash of factual structural and cultural practices. For
instance, in South Sudan, some communities permit early marriage of young girls aged
12-14 in return for dowries as decided by their parents. Again, the norm of ‘Blood
Compensation’ where a young girl is paid to the grieved family if one of her family
members, a brother or family killed someone in that grieved family to resolve a dispute.
In summary, conflict is an integral part of everyone’s lives.

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If conflict is well managed the parties will develop a common approach about the speed
and dimension of the changes they want. If it’s badly managed, then the conflict will
probably become violent. We can deal with conflict through prevention, management
and resolution to deter its occurrence, reduce escalation and transform relationships.
2. Approaches in Conflict Resolution
There is no approach to dealing with conflict. However, different approaches selected
usually designed to address a particular conflict situation based on the stage and type
and, more importantly looking into the outcome. Let’s have a look on the following
approaches.
2.1 Conflict Prevention
Conflict prevention is a broad term which includes many ACTIONS that can be
taken to prevent conflict from escalating into a violent outbreak. These are
initiatives designed to pre-empt the outbreak of violence. It is divided into two
categories; namely Operational and structural prevention. It is also about
forecasting, evaluation and publicity of the problem. According to UN; “Conflict
prevention is to maintain international peace and security, and to that end to take
effective collective measures for the prevention and removal of threats to the peace
and for the suppression of acts of aggression or other breaches of the peace and to
bring about by peaceful means and in conformity with the principles of justice and
international disputes or situations which might lead to breach of the peace” The
shift toward structural prevention (UN,1995 Report), strengthening of the UN
system capacity for conflict prevention called for a comprehensive conflict
prevention strategy directed at poverty and underdevelopment…The key to
averting conflicts was sustainable human development …and integrated approach
to human security is needed.
Conflict prevention includes interventions such as:
2.1.1 Preventive Diplomacy
“Actions to prevent disputes from arising between parties, to prevent existing
disputes from escalating into conflict and to limit the spread to the latter when
they occur”. While on the other hand, Diplomacy is the application of

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intelligence and facts to the conduct of official relations between governments
of independent States, extending sometimes also to their relations with
dependent territories between governments and independent institutions. The
conduct of business between states by peaceful means.
Preventive Diplomacy is a non-forcible action made by all actors to prevent all
conflicts between the parties concerned from becoming violent, deteriorating
and spreading and to prevent them from becoming armed conflicts being likely
to endanger international peace and security. In 2000 Millennium Report noted
that “There is no near-universal agreement that says prevention is preferable to
cure, and that strategies of conflict prevention must address the root causes of
the conflicts not simply their violent symptoms. And that includes’
 confidence-building measures,
 Fact-Finding Missions
 Early Warning and Response system
 Demilitarized Zones
 Sanctions and Embargoes
 Political and Organization Sanctions

2.2 Early Warning and Response Systems in Conflict Prevention


Introduction
For more than 7o years African countries have been in a circle of violent conflicts.
These conflicts ranged from armed wars to ethnicities confrontations. Since 2010
the number of conflicts in African States has increased. And added with the popular
up raising in North Africa in 2011; recent crisis in South Sudan 2013, Sudan in 2018,
Mali and Guinea-Bissau in 2020. All that have raised the question of how violence
and its escalation can be prevented.

2.2.1 Meaning/Definition of Early Warning Response Systems

The Early Warning Response Systems are particular aspects of preventing violent
conflict. Early warning Response system is a process that alerts decision-makers to

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the possible outbreak, escalation and occurrence of violent conflict. 1 The EWS
provides clear understanding of the nature and impacts of violent conflict. It
involves the constant collection and analysis of data on conflicts by systematic
monitoring and reporting conflict indicators. Early waring and response systems
refers to an invaluable tool within a wide area of actions for conflict prevention,
mitigation and peacebuilding. It is an action research that tries to predict the
occurrence of violent conflict and the implementation of initiatives to prevent the
violent conflict. It is:
 Part of conflict prevention that attempts to prevent the outbreak of violent
conflict;
 Conflict prevention that consists of two actions: predicting the occurrence of
violent conflict (early warning) and the implementation of policy suggestions
to prevent violent conflict, based on early warning assessments (early
response).

According FEWER (1997), CEWERS refer to; “The systematic collection and analysis
of information coming from areas of crises for the purpose of: a) anticipating the
escalation of violent conflict; b) the development of strategic responses to these crises;
and c) the presentation of options to critical actors for the purposes of decision-
making.” While OECD/DAC (2009) defines CEWERS “Early warning is a process that
(a) alerts decision makers to the potential outbreak, escalation and resurgence of
violent conflict; and (b) promotes an understanding among decision makers of the
nature and impacts of violent conflict.”2

#Critical understanding of EWRS3

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A more recent definition, recognizing the application of EWS throughout the conflict cycle is the 2009 OECD/DAC one “Early
Warning is a process that (a) alerts decision makers to the potential outbreak, escalation and resurgence of violent conflict and
(b) promotes an understanding among decision makers of the nature and impact of violent conflict.”
19 Adapted and modified from OAS and UNDP (2016). p. 12.
2
OECD (2009), ‘Preventing Violence, War, and State Collapse: The Future of Conflict Early Warning and
Response’
(Paris: OECD/DAC).
13 Ibid.
3
Adapted and modified from OAS and UNDP (2016). p. 12.

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EARLY a signal is issued timely providing decision makers sufficient time for
prevention measures to be activated and eruption/escalation
avoided.
WARNING Concise and evidence-based information is signaled by the system in
order to anticipate a crisis situation, prevent their outbreak and
mitigate their impact. An effective signal is one that gives due
consideration on how the warning is presented, is easily understood
and meets the needs of intended recipients.

(EARLY) Includes a. facilitative measures: high-level preventive diplomacy,


mediation and confidence building measures, b. coercive: diplomatic
RESPONS penalties, sanctions, threats of international justice and ultimately use
of force and c. incentives such as security guarantees and institutional
E support for new power and resource sharing arrangements.
SYSTEM a process of sequential steps (which differs for each system) with
distinct and complementary utility, contributing to the system’s goal:
anticipation of conflict.

2.2.2 Importance of Early Warning and Response Systems

Dealing with conflict in terms of human life, destruction of property, displacement


and insecurity and instability is costly compared to putting efforts to prevent
conflict. Early warning response systems are designed to help stakeholders deal
with negative consequences of conflict and can be an effective tool if firmly owned
by the various stakeholders linked to the conflict dynamics. Thus, providing better
response strategies to prevent the escalation of violent conflict. The following are
among the importance of EWERS:
 Encourages strong relationships among policymakers and other interest
social groups, or even the disputants to the conflict; allowing space
exchange of views and for a deeper dialogue on issues that escalate
misunderstanding.
 Sensible and timely response to potential conflict warning signs of
occurrence and escalation.
 The monitoring of measures/actions and impact of conflicts to timely inform
policy making body on strategies used,
 It is evidence-based response tool to respond to the possible/potential
emergence of violent conflict considering the interest of multiple -

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stakeholders who have vested influence on the conflict dynamics both
internally and externally
 CEWERS monitor behaviourial difference in communities and it acts a mirror
to latent conflict situations. The systems work well if it is inclusive and well -
coordinated with local community’s volunteers, civil society organizations,
religious institutions, national and local government structures and
international partners.
 CEWERS serve as conflict analysis tool design to analyze the root causes of
violence at the early phases; such as crisis in political, economic and security
structures. The local stakeholders are able to acquire situational responsive
data to deal with inter-communal conflicts, security and safety and
protection issues. The information acquired may include peace disturbances,
sexual violence, destruction of property, or even interpersonal conflicts.
 In the later conflict circle, the systems alert decision-makers and other
relevant stakeholders on the serious threats of the potential conflict
happening and thus providing recommendations for action through policy
making process to support conflict prevention and peace building. they can

2.2.3 The Limitations/Challenges of CEWERS

 The CEWERS involve an inclusive engagement between local actors and


government stakeholders as well as traditional leaders, religious
organizations with an informed perspective of the systems since they are
keenly aware of the threats on the ground. The support of these local
stakeholders is vital in helping government and international organizations
implement adequate interventions. This is often not the case in most
conflict prone countries/local governments. Lack of an all-inclusive
partnership is a challenge.

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 Operationalization of CEWERS require human expertise, central political
will and support with highly technical level; proper education/technical
know-how on indicators and response mechanisms of CEWERS. For
example, Peace Committees at the local level should be organized with
concise knowledge on accountability and policymaking systems.
 Insufficiency investment in policies of building a local infrastructure for
genuine culture of conflict prevention, management and resolutions;
subsequently into peacebuilding since government and community
structures are dysfunctional by the conflict and corruption leading often to
ineffective implementation of recommended strategies/response.
 Most of the less developed communities lack technological know-how and
infrastructure which impede clear communication and team work between
local peace actors.
 Lack of insufficient financial contribution and commitment by government
and peace actors towards the operationalization CEWERS in their
respective areas of intervention.
 Lack of awareness on how to increase the responsiveness of CEWERS
through policy education. Civil society has a central role to play through
sharing of experiences and best practices from other project interventions
of conflict prevention and peacebuilding. Local communities and Civil
Society should be mindful of political influences and constraints regarding
the implementation of the CEWERS.

Reference
https://onpolicy.org/the-importance-of-conflict-early-warning-and-
response-systems-in-conflict-prevention-in-africa/

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