2023 Global Construction Cost Trends
2023 Global Construction Cost Trends
Horizons
International Construction Costs 2023
Foreword
By 4th quarter 2022, annualized GDP growth rates in most markets covered by the
ICC had slowed to a crawl. Only the US, Australia, Denmark and the Netherlands
showed much life, with the Eurozone contracting at an annualized rate of -0.1%.
Prospects for 2023 are uncertain. Forecasters hope for a soft-landing in Europe
and North America, but that might be difficult to engineer. Nevertheless, the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects growth of 2.8% for 2023, with 5%+
expansion in China, India and South East Asia compensating for much weaker
prospects in North America and the Eurozoane.
It is by no means certain that Central Banks will be able to trace a path to low
inflation by the end of the year. Whilst structural inflation associated with energy
costs will drop out, core inflation has proven to be much more deeply rooted.
The prospect of higher interest rates for longer will continue to weigh down on
investment in the commercial and residential sectors.
Some sectors are much more resilient. Multi- However, from distress comes opportunity. We
The implosion of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023 was a family rental housing development for example anticipate that a shake-out of markets for existing
brutal reminder of the risk that the effects of higher finance costs continues to benefit in many markets from high city-centre stock will prompt fresh thinking about
could spread far beyond the direct impact of increased costs of levels of demand and a shortage of supply. Other the reimagining of existing assets that benefit
sectors which benefit from structural growth, from excellent locations, with value-add and
borrowing. Silicon Valley Bank collapsed after the falling book value including data centres and last-mile logistics, or opportunistic funds leading the way. This is a huge
of its long-dated bond investments created a liability mismatch, energy transition, including gigafactories, have a challenge for existing investors, and new ideas
momentum that won’t be slow, even in the face of and new investment will be needed to reposition
which triggered a run on deposits. SVB clients withdrew $48 billion higher finance costs. what otherwise might become stranded assets.
in one day, highlighting how digital systems can amplify some of As we highlight in the next section on ‘Taking the
the effects of contagion. Existing commercial property is doubly exposed. Long View’, owners have many opportunities and
Not only have finance costs increased by 400 levers to enhance the resilience of their properties.
basis points or more, but income streams and However, if proactive steps are not taken, then risks
February 2023 saw base rates in the US and UK increase to a 15-year highpoint. Although they may be near asset values are reduced by a higher discount rate, of a further deterioration in asset value will grow.
their peak, the days of rock bottom rates are over. The market is normalizing, and expectations reported by cutting for example, the present-day value of the
CCLA and Bloomberg are for UK rates to still be above 3% by the end of 2026. benefits that can result from energy-saving low Investors in long-lived assets have to take a long-
carbon investments. Lower asset values could term view. Required adjustments to higher finance
Demand for housing will inevitably be hard hit by affordability issues triggered by higher mortgage rates. trigger further risks associated with loan-to- costs will be painful but the effects will eventually
However, the impact could spread much further. Evidence of the broader effect of the interest rate cycle value covenants and funding gaps. According to unwind, and ultimately owners and investors
is plain to see. Property related shares fell significantly during 2022, and as we write in March 2023, the Bloomberg, the global stock of distressed debt in will benefit once again from improvements in
UK’s FTSE 350 Real Estate Index and the Dow Jones US Real Estate Index are both 30% below price levels Real Estate totals nearly $150 billion. Owners of investment value aligned to the quality and
office towers in midtown Manhattan are reportedly longevity of their asset portfolios.
seen in December 2021. Given the hefty discount to asset value, some developers are choosing to pay off
‘handing back the keys’ to their lenders rather than
expensive debt with sales proceeds rather than taking forward new development.
wait for asset values to recover.
Investors and owners need to respond to these challenges. However, property is a cyclical business
and traditionally, in difficult times, the lowest cost and perceived lowest risk option has often been the
do-nothing approach. An alternative, perhaps only for a more opportunistic, risk-seeking developer, is to
invest in anticipation of market recovery. Looking back at the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 to 2012,
some of the best returns were delivered by properties that were launched early into markets that had
been starved of new space requirements and box-fresh assets. These developments also benefited from
access to new sources of investment capital from private equity, sovereign wealth, and other sources such
as the giant property exchange traded funds established by asset managers such as Blackrock.
This is why it is so important to actively maintain the • Demand for space emerges before viability • Downturns accelerate change, particularly
long view – looking through the current cycle - taking the metrics stack up. In 2010 the blocker was specifications and user expectations.
steps that are needed to protect and ultimately enhance availability of finance. In 2023 the issue for Developers need to look ahead to the new
returns for today, and asset value for the long-term. owners is much more likely to be linked standards, not backwards to the status quo.
to the cost of retrofit and upgrade.
• Difficult markets foster difficult projects.
• The window of opportunity to deliver the Clients who invest time and energy
best development value in a downcycle in a collaborative project team will
is short. Projects need to be prepared secure the better outcome. Lowest
in anticipation of the opportunity. cost is not always best value.
The current development cycle has lasted over a decade and the GFC is a distant memory. However,
the key lesson of being ready to act when the time is right is completely relevant to the challenges
faced by today’s owners of existing assets, particularly when it comes to ensuring they remain
aligned to current and future market need.
Energy performance and Climate change exposure affecting Local infrastructure resilience: Potential for asset repositioning:
decarbonisation: assets and infrastructure:
Asset performance relative to Urban heat stress risks. Quality and resilience of building Asset potential – location,
current energy standards and infrastructure – networks, data and design, and specification.
sustainability reporting. building services.
Planned performance and reporting Climate-related natural perils – Clean energy provision, Planning potential – massing, change
targets for net zero, with implications wildfires, flooding, storm surges. including plans for expansion of use, planning gain.
for investment. across the network.
Planned investment, incentive, and Known plans for mitigation. City infrastructure and network Market potential – user and
penalty programmes. resilience, including disaster investment demand, green finance.
recovery planning.
In the current market, when ‘do nothing’ or ‘wait and see’ might seem to be the best option, these two
characteristics – long-life and cyclicality - work against investing in asset resilience. Long-life, because the
durability of property can lull investors into a false sense of security, and cyclicality, because owners stop
investing when asset values are at risk.
However, this approach is no longer fit for purpose. The rate of obsolescence is accelerating as occupiers
demand improved performance and as the range of risks increase, triggered both by climate change and
consumer behavior. Who would have thought that urban heat stress was a risk to asset values in Northern
European Cities before the summer of 2022? Assets need to be made resilient for a fast-moving market
and that requires some targeted intervention.
There are many barriers to action, not least the fact that most buildings are occupied so delivering
investment is hard work. Furthermore, as highlighted by our 2023 data, the construction supply chain is
busy, and work is costly and challenging to procure. Clients will need to take a long-term view, but they
also need to create momentum.
The best way to start is through no- Existing assets will ultimately need
regret actions. Work that will have to be significant investment to retain their long-
done at some point, which has inherent term relevance and value. Given market
value, but which could easily be put off. challenges in 2023, this investment might
No regret actions could include simple not feel like a priority, but planning for the
energy efficiency improvements or carbon- investment is. By investing in anticipation
emission reductions associated with energy of their markets, developers and owners
sourcing. It could be a plan that anticipates can take the first steps to protect the value
government incentives and penalties for of their assets against a net zero future.
investment in low-carbon retrofits. It could
involve the use of simple digital tools to
improve the understanding of how users
behave, and how a building could be
adapted to improve their experience.
of property portfolios
Screen across a wider range Size the big risks – even Identify no-regret
of risk types and timescales if they are far in the actions that can be taken
– e.g., climate change, future. Use the 80:20 as a part of planned
health and well-being, and rule to focus effort. investment programs to
2 Identify and quantify
business risks. Consider
risks to 2050 and beyond to
Identify the mitigation
steps that could be taken
improve risk resilience
– e.g., energy efficiency
The past three years have been challenging for many property investors and the full range of risk account for long-term asset now with little impact. measures to reduce
exposures affecting value implications. sky-high running costs.
owners. During times of uncertainty, the rational, least-cost and lowest-risk asset your property portfolio
management strategy is often to do as little as possible, reducing investment until
prospects improve, whilst also minimizing the chances of making costly mistakes.
But can investors afford to wait out the turmoil in 2023? To guide these actions, we have developed this Anticipate and follow Use digital technologies to Understand how your
Can previous experience be relied upon? Are markets guide to prompt developers and owners to think market trends. Invest enhance the connection buildings are used.
moving faster than before in response to changes in product about the full range of issues influencing the in understanding with your occupiers and Develop building
standards, regulation, risk exposure and client expectation? value and longevity of their property assets. how tenant and user investors – from BIM and intelligence capability
Has the time-bound requirement for low-carbon retrofit
in many markets changed the investment model? We have identified five key prompts to help clients
3 Track and adapt
expectations are evolving.
Build closer relationships
digital twins to apps and
virtual environments,
including predictive
analytics to track and
interrogate their current approach to asset management. to changes in user with occupiers using use adaptable digital anticipate building
Our view is that risks affecting the underlying longevity of These prompts will help clients to identify whether flexible leasing models solutions to increase the performance and user
demand and opportunities attractiveness, flexibility,
an asset, or a portfolio are becoming more complex and they are considering and acting on all relevant issues behaviors in real time.
more significant. This is a product of the pace of change and that affect long-term returns and asset value. for collaboration. and value of your assets.
the approaching obsolescence horizon driven by net-zero
requirements. Fortunately, these risks are also actionable.
Maximize the value of the Exploit the strengths Exploit the power of
location and the site. How of the existing asset – digital modeling to
3 will the location develop
in the future? Could a
identify opportunities
to reuse and extend
understand all the
opportunities over
4 change of use enhance
value? Can the potential
the existing fabric.
Maximize reuse of
the asset lifecycle.
Model the implications
Identify repositioning
2 4 opportunities
of a site be enhanced
through a new approach?
the fabric to minimize
embodied carbon.
of new proposals for
future adaptability.
Track and adapt
Identify and quantify to changes in
the full range of risk user demand
exposures affecting Identify repositioning
your property portfolio opportunities
Develop a dashboard Measure the wider social Acknowledge the value of
of asset performance and environmental longevity by highlighting
metrics that support value of the asset in its enhancements to
Construction
Fund (IMF) have French GDP growth stalling at 0.7% in 2023, recovering to 1.6%
in 2024.
Construction firms approached 2022 with optimism, with a high level of planned
Netherlands (CBS) reported that in Q3 2022, the number of new build property affordable and
transactions fell by over a third year-on-year. This was the largest decline since the
measurement of transactions began in 2015. feasible. This applies
Other headwinds include continued issues around nitrogen emissions, high building
to both the client
material prices, a shortage of development land, and local authority staffing issues
impacting the processing of building permit applications. However, construction
and the contractor
companies still have well-stocked order books, and the high energy prices have or the installer.”
accelerated building activity for energy-efficiency improvements.
or an accelerated
start date to minimize
inflation impacts.”
Ann van Melkebeek, Belgium
Construction inflation peaked at around 10-12% in 2022. With the building sector
expected to slow down the most, inflation for buildings is expected to fall to
2-3%, whilst price increases in infrastructure will be higher at 6-7%. “The UK construction
Meanwhile, the UK’s construction markets continued to be resilient throughout
sector remained
2022. The sector delivered record output, despite the various headwinds, which remarkably resilient
also included material price inflation reaching 30% in the middle of the year.
Growth was driven by the housing, industrial and infrastructure sectors, with key despite a series of
projects like High Speed 2 and Hinkley Point Nuclear Power Station reaching peak
workload. The construction sector’s new work pipeline continued to be boosted
headwinds in 2022.
right until the end of the year, with new orders in the 4th quarter 2022 down by While a slowdown has
only 1.8% and well above the long-term trend.
long been expected,
However, output is forecast to contract by 4.6% in 2023 according to the
Construction Products Association (CPA), driven by a sharp fall in house
it is still yet to
Ireland building as changes in government policy, investor sentiment and affordability materialize. Despite a
issues take hold. This will be the first contraction since 2012, aside from the
GDP grew by 12% in 2022, reflecting Ireland’s thriving multinational economy.
“Ireland has made Covid year of 2020. recent improvement
Industrial output increased by a remarkable 23%. However, the rate of growth
tailed off by year end, increasing by just 0.3% in the 4th quarter. Growth for
impressive strides Although materials price inflation is now on track to fall to 6% by mid-2023,
in sentiment, the
2023 is forecast to be 4.9%, still well above the EU average.
in developing
labor scarcity will continue to be a problem, with industry forecasts indicating market fundamentals
a requirement for an additional 225,000 workers by 2027. Continuing
Total construction output reached €32bn in 2022, but saw a rapid slowdown in the
second half of the year, with output in the 4th quarter down in volume terms by its economy improvements in productivity will play an important role in reducing labor market for a slowdown are
11% year-on-year. There are signs of improvement however, and a recent market
and raising
pressure over the forecast period.
still there and the
report highlights contractor confidence at an 11 month high in January 2023, with
85% of builders expecting better conditions in the coming year.
living standards. coming year will be
Inflation was inevitably a problem, and wholesale prices for construction This progress challenging for many
products increased by 16.2% in 2022, according to the Central Statistics Office.
Although material prices are likely to remain challenging in 2023, the February has allowed in the sector.”
2023 Construction PMI report showed that the rate of input cost inflation eased
to a two-year low in January 2023, while program pressures fell to the lowest it to weather Ross Baylis, United Kingdom
level since the start of 2020. the Covid-19
Following the introduction of the mandatory “Nearly Zero Energy Building” pandemic and cope
(NZEB) standard, the construction and renovation of greener buildings has
gone mainstream. The standard aims for a 60% improvement in energy effectively with
performance of non-domestic buildings and introduces a mandatory
requirement of at least 20% primary energy use from a renewable source. the repercussions
Looking forward, capital investment in housing is forecast to increase by €100
from the conflict in
million to €3.5 billion in 2023, with €2.3 billion allocated for new build housing. Ukraine. However,
There is a housing deficit of 250,000 homes in Ireland, with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar
recently suggesting that 40,000 homes a year will need to be built to reduce price pressures
the deficit. Further momentum in transport infrastructure should be expected,
following progress in 2022 on projects such as Dublin Metrolink and the DART+
and global factors
heavy rail programme. The hotels sector is forecast to perform well in 2023, with
Dublin alone seeing the addition of 3,000 keys by 2024.
will lead to an
uncertain 2023.”
Fintan Kenny, Ireland
the use of technology and Bengaluru, Mumbai and New Delhi - Arkind Lagos - Q Associates, Danjuma Waniko,
Infrastructure spending is a central tenet of the Canadian
government’s growth strategy, with more than C$180bn of modular construction could LS Private Limited, [email protected] [email protected]
www.arcadis.com
Contact us
Kathleen Abbott
Global Sales Director, Places
Kayleigh Owen
Head of Cost and
Commercial Management
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Simon Rawlinson
Head of Strategic Research
and Insight
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Ian Goodridge
Market Intelligence Lead
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Richard Warburton
Global Director of
Property & Investment
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