University of Puerto Rico.

Mayagüez Campus
College of Engineering.
Industrial Engineering Department

InIn 4010: Probability and Statistics for Engineers

Fundamentals of Probability Models (Ch. 1 and 2)

1. A bag contains 32 balls, and 16 of them are black. of painted sides is 3? Show your calculations in
(a) If one randomly selects 7 balls (without detail.
replacement), what is the probability that all (b) Three pieces are randomly selected, and one
of them are black? counts the total number of painted sides. What
(b) If one randomly selects 7 balls (with is the probability that the total number of
replacement), what is the probability that all painted sides is 7? Show your calculations in
of them are black? detail.
(c) If one of the small cubes is randomly selected
2. In a set of cards, there are 10 red ones, 4 of them and rolled, what is the chance it will land with
being aces, and 8 red cards, 3 of them being aces. a painted side up?
We draw one card at random from the set.
(a) What is the probability that the drawn card is 8. A box contains 10 black balls and a single white
an ace when we notice that it is red? ball. Christian and Alexa draw without
(b) What is the probability that it is a red card replacement balls from this urn, alternating after
when we observe that it is an ace? each draw until the white ball is drawn. The game
is lost by the player who happens to draw the
3. Assume that we randomly arrange the letters {A, single white ball. Christian is a gentleman and
B, C, D}. Find the probability that none of the offers Alexa the choice of whether she wants to
letters is in its original position. start or not. Alexa has a hunch that she might be
better off if he starts; after all, he might lose in the
4. Consider the events: A = {Obtaining at least one first draw. On the other hand, if his first draw
three when a fair die is thrown four times} and B = yields a black ball, then Alexa’s chances to draw
{Getting at least one double-three when two dice the white ball in her first draw increase because
are thrown 24 times}. John argues that these two one black ball is already removed from the urn.
probabilities are the same because Pr{double- How should Alexa decide to maximize her
three for a pair of dice} = 1/36 = (1/6) Pr{a three probability of winning?
for a single die}, and, thus, one is compensating for
the factor of 1/6 by throwing the two dice 6 times 9. Two players Anthony and Bob pay $40 each to
more (24) than the single dice (4). Is he correct? play a fair game such that the player who wins a
total of 6 rounds first takes all the cash ($80).
5. Suppose Pr(A) = 0.60, Pr(A|B) = 0.25 and Pr(B|A) Suppose the game unexpectedly stops when
= 0.35, compute Pr(B). Show your calculations. Anthony’s wife calls him home. At that moment,
Anthony has won a total of 4 rounds, and Bob has
6. Suppose Pr(A) = 0.35, Pr(AUB) = 0.30 and Pr(B|A) won a total of 3 rounds. If the division of the prize
= 0.35, compute Pr(B). What can be concluded should be determined by the relative probabilities
about the statistical relationship between A and B. of Anthony and Bob winning the prize if they had
continued the game, how should the prize be
7. A cube is painted on the outside, divided between Anthony and Bob? If the player
then cut into 27 equally sized who completes 9 rounds wins and Anthony has
pieces in a 3³ format. They are put already won 6 rounds, and Bob has won 4 rounds,
in a bag, then how should the prize be distributed?
(a) Two pieces are randomly
selected, and one counts the 10. Suppose that a van with a capacity for 13
total number of painted sides. passengers departs from a commuter station.
What is the probability that the total number Observation has shown that the bus never departs
with fewer than 3 passengers. Let X denote the
 number of female passengers and Y the number of circle. Provide the
male passengers. Assume that all possible (x, y) source code of your
pairs are equally likely. program and use it
(a) Find the probability that the number of female to complete the
passengers is more than 6. following table.
(b) Find the probability that the total number of
passengers is less than 6.

11. Assume that we randomly choose from the letters

{A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K} (without replacing the N = 100 1000 10,000 50,000 100,000 500,000
letters) until they have all been taken. K=
(a) Find the probability that the letters D and K K/N =
are chosen successively in the given order. The proportion K/N should be close to /4
(b) Find the probability that the letters H, I, J, are (why?) and consequently, this is a method to
chosen successively in the given order. estimate .
(c) Find the probability that the string “ACE” (b) For N = 10,000, repeat the experiment 100
appears somewhere in the sequence of letters. times; that is, count the number, say K, of pairs
(d) Find the probability that the string “LAI” (x,y) that fall below the circular arc and
appears somewhere in the sequence of letters. compute the proportion, K/N, of points within
the quarter-circle, so you will have 100 values
12. At the end of the semester, a professor tells a of K/N. Order these 100 values from smallest
student, who is failing her course, that his final to largest and eliminate the 5 smallest and the
grade is equally likely to be found in any of the 5 largest values from the list. The extremes of
three closed enveloped in from of him; one of the the reduced list form what is called a 90%
envelopes has an A and the other two have an F. confidence interval for /4.
The student selects one of the envelopes. The
teaching assistant, who knows the content of the 15. The table below shows the probabilities of all
envelopes, opens one containing an F, and the realizations for each of the three dice. Notice that
student is giving the choice of changing his the dice are all “loaded” meaning that they are
selection. Thus, there are only two closed unbalanced in some way leading to an unequal
envelopes left. One surely has an A and the other probability of any number coming up.
has an F; so it seems that it does not matter if he
switches or not, since each of the two envelopes 1 2 3 4 5 6
would ostensibly have the same chance (i.e. 1/2) Dice 1 14.9% 23% 15.0% 20.0% 4.0% 23.1%
of hiding the A. Does it matter if the student sticks Dice 2 5.0% 12.3% 42.5% 15.2% 25.0% 0.0%
to his initial choice or switch to the other Dice 3 17.5% 15.2% 21.5% 10.2% 17.5% 18.1%
unopened envelope? Justify your answer.
(a) If dice 3 is rolled, what is the probability of
13. A simple binary communication channel carries rolling a five?
messages by using only two signals, say 0 and 1. (b) If one of these three dice is selected at random
Assume that for a particular binary channel, 55% and rolled, what is the probability of rolling a
of the transmissions are 1’s; the probability a four?
transmitted 1 is correctly received is 0.92; and that (c) If one of these three dice is selected at random
the probability that a transmitted 0 is correctly and rolled, what number is the most likely to
received is 0.97. Determine appear?
(a) The probability that a 1 is received; and (d) If one of these three dice is selected at random
(b) Given that a 1 is received, the probability that and a five is rolled, what is the probability that
a 1 was transmitted. dice 1 was rolled?
(e) If one of these three dice is selected at random
14. The figure shows a quarter-circle with a unit and a four is rolled, what dice is the most likely
radius bounded by a square. Suppose that we to have been chosen?
generate N random pairs (x, y), 0 < x < 1, 0 < y < 1. (f) If dice 1 and 2 are selected and rolled, and one
This can be done easily using Python, MatLab, adds their realizations, what is the probability
Excel, C, … or your favorite computer language. that this sum is 6?
(a) Count the number, say K, of pairs (x,y) that fall
below the circular arc and compute the
proportion, K/N, of points within the quarter-
 (g) If dice 1 and 2 are selected and rolled, and one required probability in terms of the following
adds their realizations, what is the probability events:
that this sum is less than 5? • S = A shaft conforms to surface finish
(h) If dice 1 and 2 are selected and rolled, and one requirements;
adds their realizations, what is the sum that is • T1 = A shaft was manufactured by Machine Tool 1
more likely to appear? • R = A shaft conforms to roundness requirements;
(i) If dice 2 and 3 are selected and rolled, and one • T2 = A shaft was manufactured by Machine Tool 2
adds their realizations, what is the probability Roundness
Surface
that this sum is less than 10? Equipment finish conforms Total
(j) If dice 1 and 3 are selected and rolled, what is
conforms yes no
the probability that the minimum of the two
realizations is 2? yes 245 15 260
Machine
(k) If dice 2 and 3 are selected and rolled, what is no 55 35 90
Tool 1
the probability that the maximum of the two Total 300 50 350
realizations is greater than 6? yes 185 65 250
Machine
no 75 45 120
16. High schools are embarking on drug testing of Tool 2
Total 260 110 370
their students, particularly student-athletes (in
2002, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the (a) If a shaft is selected at random, what is the
practice is legal). Moreover, parents may also be probability that the shaft conforms to
tempted to test their kids with newly available roundness requirements?
home drug screening kits to catch a drug-abuse (b) What is the probability that the selected shaft
problem early. The American Academy of either conforms to surface finish requirements
Pediatrics says screening for illicit drugs is a or does not conform to roundness
complicated process prone to errors and cheating requirements?
and has not been shown to curtail youngsters’ (c) If a shaft is selected at random from Machine
drug use. In medicine, the probability of a true Tool 2, what is the probability that the shaft
positive test is called the sensitivity of the test [= conforms to both surface finish and roundness
P(Positive Test|Drugs)]. The specificity of the test requirements?
is the probability that a drug-free specimen will (d) If a shaft is selected at random, what is the
test negative, or the probability of a true negative, probability that the shaft conforms to surface
[specificity = P(Negative Test|NoDrugs)]. Assume finish requirements or roundness
that screening kits have a sensitivity of 75% and requirements or from Machine Tool 1?
specificity of 99.8%. Using what you have learned (e) If a shaft is selected at random, what is the
in this class, comment (with calculations to probability that the shaft conforms to surface
support your comments) on the implications of finish requirements or from Machine Tool 2?
random drug testing in a school of, say, 3000 (f) If a shaft selected at random conforms to both
students. Assume that actual drug use varies surface finish and roundness requirements,
between 10% and 20%. what is the probability that it comes from
Machine Tool 2?
17. An electrical system
consists of four 19. Two players, Rose and Peter, are playing a five-
components, as game tournament. Each of the five games can
illustrated in the figure. The result in a win for one of the payers or in a tie. The
system works if components A and B work or player that wins a game gets 2 points (and the
components A, C, and D work. The reliabilities loser gets no points). If a game results in a tie, each
(probability of working) of each component are RA player gets 1 point. If the probability that Rose
= 0.85, RB = 0.65, RC = 0.90, and RD = 0.85. Find the wins a game is 55% and the probability that she
probability that (a) the entire system works and loses a game is 25%, what is the probability that
(b) component C does not work, given that the she wins the tournament? What is the probability
entire system works. Assume that the four that Peter wins the tournament?
components work independently.

18. Shafts are classified by conformance to

specifications and by the machine tool used for
their fabrication, as shown in the table. When
answering the following questions, express the
SOLUTIONS
1. (a) 0.3399% (b) 0.7813%
2. (a) 0.4 (b) 0.5714
3. 0.375
5. 0.84
6. 0.0725
7. (a) 0.2279 (b) 0.2379 (c) 1/3
8. 0.5455
9. Anthony $61.88, Bob $18.12
10. (a) 0.2828 (b) 0.1515
11. (a) 0.09091 (b) 0.009091 (c) 0.009091 (d) 0
13. (a) 0.5195 (b) 0.9740
15. (a) 17.5% (b) 0.1513 (c) 3 (d) 0.0860 (e) Dice 1
(f) 0.1626 (g) 0.1364 (h) 7 (i) 0.8835 (j) 0.2022
(k) 0
17. (a) 0.7801 (b) 0.07083
18. (a) 0.7778 (b) 0.8194 (c) 0.5 (d) 0.9375 (e) 0.875
(f) 0.4302
19. Pr(Rose wins)=0.7125