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Ericsson
Mobility Report

June 2023
2 IFnotrreocdauscttsion Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2023

Letter from the publisher

Meeting evolving network requirements

Communications service providers
capacity and good coverage for superior the need for new models to rate mobile
worldwide are continuing to invest in 5G,
user experiences, remains limited to quality of experience (QoE) to enable
driven by the prospect of superior
around 25 percent of 4G sites globally, with the design of networks that meet future
connectivity and emerging opportunities.
North America ahead and Europe service performance needs. As the use
This comes despite geopolitical unrest and
behind. As global mobile network data of
a macroeconomic slowdown in some
traffic continues to grow, with a CAGR augmented reality (AR) services for
markets.
of around 25 percent projected through mobile devices grows, mobile networks
New major 5G markets are emerging.
2028, smart need to be prepared for increased
India is experiencing massive network
network modernization becomes performance requirements, primarily by
deployments, making it the fastest
imperative. adding new spectrum and functionality on
growing 5G market globally. 5G is a
Managing this growth while improving existing sites. We also explore how
critical component in India’s journey to
the mobile user experience requires Singtel’s deployment of 5G network
realize
continued network evolution. Notably, slicing at the 2022 Singapore Grand Prix
its “Digital India” vision. Meanwhile, in
5G mid-band build-out is proving to be demonstrated the commercial
North America the addition of mid-band
more energy-efficient and cost-effective opportunities of differentiated
spectrum now enables superior multi-
compared to the expansion of 4G connectivity services.
band 5G experiences for many users. networks. I trust that you will find this report
With over 1 billion 5G In this edition, we uncover insights engaging and that it provides useful
subscriptions worldwide, service that highlight key considerations for insights as we navigate the world of 5G
providers in leading 5G markets have future network evolution, based on and network evolution.
been experiencing positive revenue analysis of data traffic growth and
growth over the past 2 years. patterns across different locations in Fredrik Jejdling
However, the 5G rollout is still in mobile networks. Executive Vice President and
progress, and the deployment of 5G As you dive deeper into the report, Head of Business Area Networks
mid-band spectrum, which offers high we address the challenges posed by
the
next wave of 5G applications,
emphasizing

Contents
Forecasts Articles

04 5G mobile subscriptions traffic

23 Exploring how traffic patterns drive
to reach 1.5 billion in 18 Mobile network traffic has
network evolution
2023 almost doubled in two years
26 Exploring differentiated services with
05 Continued revenue 19 5G to account for all mobile data
5G networks
growth in leading 5G growth within 5 years
30 AR uptake enabled by mobile networks
markets 21 5G population coverage
33 Mobile quality of experience: Network
06 5G subscriptions rising in every has reached 35 percent
readiness for new services
region 08 North East Asia: A closer look
10 Weak smartphone market is
36 Methodology
not stopping 5G adoption
37 Glossary
11 4G/5G IoT connections
rising as 2G/3G declines 38 Global and regional key figures
12 Over 100 service
providers offering FWA
over 5G
14 5G continues to drive
innovation in mobile service
packaging
16 High-data users driving mobile
Executive Editor: Peter Jonsson
Project Manager: Anette
Lundvall Forecasts:
Richard
Möller Writer Editors:
Stephen
Carson,
Steven Davis

Co-writers:
Martin Bäckström, Greger Blennerud,
Fredrik Burstedt, Marko Cejvan,
Yossi Cohen, Gunnar Heikkilä, Josip
Jelic, Doroteja Kobescak, Fredric
Kronestedt, Per Lindberg, Peter
Linder, David Lindero, Jun Ying Liu,
Karl Olsson, Natasa Pipic, Eliane
Semaan, Raymond Soh,
Tomislav Tolic, Kenneth
Wallstedt, Li Yang G, Jialong
Zhang

Contributors from Singtel:

Cheong Hai Thoo, Terrance
Lai, Kuan Wai Mun, Lynette
Poh, Harish Nambiar, Cara
Foong, Hian Hou Chua
5G is growing fast – total 5G subscriptions are projected
to pass the 1.5 billion mark this year, growing by 500
million in just 1 year. The growth comes in spite of a
challenging macroeconomic climate. Globally, around 240
commercial
5G networks have been launched so far, and service
providers in the top 20 5G markets have enjoyed growing
revenue that correlates with growing subscription penetration.

Forecasts

20
The monthly global
Revenue is rising for service More than 100 service
average usage per
providers in the top 20 5G providers are now offering
smartphone is expected to
markets, increasing by Fixed Wireless Access services
exceed
7 percent in the last 2 years. over 5G.
20 GB at the end of 2023.

G
B 7 % 100
5G mobile
subscriptions are set
to reach
1.5 billion globally
by the end of 2023.

1.5
bn
4 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2023

5G mobile subscriptions
to reach 1.5 billion in
2023
During the first quarter of 2023, total 5G subscriptions
reached 1.1 billion, adding 125 million.

Service providers continue to deploy

penetration at 41 percent. In North East Subscriptions for 4G continue to increase,
5G despite a weaker global economy
Asia the penetration was 30 percent, growing by 59 million during Q1 2023 to
and geopolitical uncertainties. Around
followed by the Gulf Cooperation Council 5.2 billion. 4G subscriptions are projected
the world, about 240 service providers
countries at 18 percent and Western to start declining from this year to around
have now launched commercial 5G
Europe at 3.8 billion by the end of 2028 as
services, and around 35 have
13 percent. In 2028, it is projected subscribers migrate to 5G.
deployed or launched 5G standalone
that North America will have the During the quarter, 3G subscriptions
(SA).1
highest 5G penetration at 91 percent, declined by 85 million, while GSM/EDGE-only
The most common 5G services
followed by Western Europe at 88 subscriptions dropped by 59 million and
launched by service providers for
percent. other technologies3 decreased by
consumers are enhanced mobile
The global 5G subscription about 4 million.
broadband (eMBB), Fixed Wireless
forecast has been adjusted to take China, Bangladesh and Nigeria
Access (FWA), gaming and some
into account delayed spectrum had the greatest net additions of
AR/VR-based services.
auctions in several countries and subscriptions during the quarter,
continued difficult macroeconomic with 4 million added in each
Strong 5G subscription growth
conditions. 5G subscriptions are now country.
in North America
forecast to reach
The uptake of 5G subscriptions2 in
4.6 billion globally by the end of 2028,
North America has been stronger
making up more than 50 percent of all
than expected, and at the end of 2022
mobile subscriptions. 5G will become
the region had the highest 5G
the dominant mobile access technology
subscription
by subscriptions in 2028.

Figure 1: Mobile subscriptions by technology (billion)

10 9.1 5G subscriptions are forecast

billion to reach 1.5 billion in 2023.
8.3

1.
9 billion

6 bn
5

4 2 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

0
1
3 7

0
5 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2023
2023 E/TD-LTE
WCDMA/HSPA
5G
GSM
L
TD-SCDMA
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
T
CDMA

1
GSA (May 2023).
2
A 5G subscription is counted as such when associated with a device that supports New Radio (NR),
as specified in 3GPP Release 15, and is connected to a 5G-enabled network.
3
Mainly CDMA2000 EVDO, TD-SCDMA and Mobile WiMAX.
6 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2023

Continued revenue
growth in leading 5G
markets
The top 20 5G markets are continuing to convert 5G capabilities into
business value, growing revenues by 7 percent over the past 2 years.

Analysis of developments in leading

now started to adjust their tariffs in speeds, and improved user experiences.
5G markets shows a strong
relation to the Consumer Price Index For service providers, the additional
correlation between increased 5G
(CPI). So far, adjustments have been value provided to consumers and
subscription penetration and service
significantly lower than inflation and this enterprises translates into opportunities
revenue. When
practice is still far from commonplace. As for upsell and revenue increase.
data from Q4 2022 is added to previous
these adjustments only apply to entirely The revenue trend in Figure 2
analysis by Ericsson,1 it is evident that
new or renewed contracts, they would indicates this value capture has
the positive revenue trend is continuing.
have had little impact on revenue growth already begun.
As shown in Figure 2, the launch of
during 2022. As 5G networks and ecosystems mature,
5G services in the top 20 5G
In contrast to such reactive price with more services and applications
markets2 is followed by a positive
adjustments, which provide no incentive being developed and offered, even more
revenue
for consumers to pay more, the launch of value for customers will be unlocked.
development of 3.5 percent CAGR
5G services has enabled service providers
over the last 2 years, or a total of 7
to proactively drive a shift to higher
percent.
mobile tariffs, while adding value for
consumers.
Service providers promoting 5G
value in times of surging inflation
Value of connectivity
Historically, service providers have found it
strengthened by new 5G services
challenging to increase consumer prices for
5G has created new value for
mobile subscriptions in line with inflation.
consumer and enterprise customers,
With the current surge of inflation across
with service offerings of larger data
many areas, some service providers have
buckets, higher

Figure 2: Revenue vs. 5G subscription penetration – top 20 5G markets

(reference point Q1 2017, percent)

Revenue 5G subscription penetration

110% 24%

Methodology
A list of the top 20 5G markets
5G subscription penetration

105% 18%
was identified, based on 5G
subscription penetration ranking.
For each service provider in these
Revenue

100% 12% markets, relative revenue

development was calculated,
using the first quarter
of 2017 as a reference point.
95% 6% The development was
calculated as a rolling four-
quarter average, to filter out
seasonality. Finally, individual
90% 0%
2017 2018 2019 developments were
2020 2021 2022
aggregated into an average
development representing all
7 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2023
Source: Ericsson analysis of TechInsights data, Q4 2022.

1
Ericsson Mobility Report – Business Review edition (February 2023).
2
Markets categorized as the “top 20 5G markets”: Australia, Bahrain, China, Denmark, Finland, Hong Kong, Ireland,
Japan, Kuwait, Monaco, Norway, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, UAE, UK, US.
8 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2023

5G subscriptions rising
in every region
Uptake is strong in North America, and the region reached
a 5G subscription penetration of 41 percent at the end of
2022.

Figure 3: Mobile subscriptions by region and technology (percent)

5G LTE (4G)
WCDMA/HSPA (3G) GSM/EDGE-only (2G) TD-SCDMA (3G) CDMA-only (2G/3G)

2022 2028 2022 2028 2022 2028 2022 2028 2022 2028 2022 2028 2022 2028 2022 2028 2022 2028 2022 2028

30% 13% 32% 34%73% 41%74% 42%74% 57% 30% 71% 18% 86%13% 88%41% 91%
58% 56%

55% 79%
73%

66%
59% 60%
58% 45% 55%

49%
32% 40%

22% 27%
25% 17%
22%
9% 12% 9%

Sub-Saharan Middle East South East Central and Latin India, North East Gulf Western North
Africa and North Asia and Eastern America Nepal and Asia Cooperation Europe America
Africa1 Oceania Europe Bhutan Council

Sub-Saharan Africa
5G is forecast to have the fastest The focus is on 4G and 5G, driven by
Despite the challenging macroeconomic
growth rate in subscriptions, attributed the exploration of service offerings
environment, nations in Sub-Saharan
primarily to coming from a low base. requiring high bandwidth and low
Africa are expected to invest in network
More than latency, and the availability of a wide
infrastructure, driven by a large youthful
10 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have range of devices
population and a high demand for
launched commercial 5G networks to date, at attractive price points. As a result, 2G
connectivity. This will also enable new
with more planned, raising the forecast for subscriptions will experience a significant
growth opportunities for service providers,
5G subscriptions to 13 percent of the total decline between 2022 and 2028, to
driven by advanced mobile data and
subscription base in 2028. account for around 5 percent of total
value-added services like mobile banking
subscriptions at the end of the period.
and payments.
Middle East and North Africa Mobile financial services are expected
Migration to 4G networks
Service providers are continuing to invest to continue to gain momentum, with an
continues. 4G will be the main
in 4G and are predicted to see increase in mobile connectivity and
contributor to new subscriptions up to
subscriptions rise by 4 percent annually expansion of propositions from basic
2028, accounting for
between 2022 and 2028, to account for transfers. Merchant payments, remittances,
more than half of all mobile subscriptions
around 60 percent of the total insurance and other services will also be
at the end of the period. While 2G
subscriptions base in the region at the end factors to increase the usage of mobile
remains an important technology in the
of the period. financial services.
region due to low-priced devices,
Strong growth in 5G subscriptions
affordability of service plans and a large
will see these account for 32 percent of
number of rural subscribers, 2G
the total in 2028, as more countries
subscriptions are projected to continuously
issue licenses and spectrum to enable
decline between now and the end of our
5G network investment.
forecast period, 2028, at which point they
will account for 29 percent of total
subscriptions.
9 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2023

1
All Middle East and North Africa figures include GCC countries.
1 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2023

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) spectrum availability. 5G subscriptions

This is an adjustment to the previous
GCC countries are frontrunners in global are forecast to reach around 430
forecast of 620 million, impacted by delayed
5G network deployments and service million
spectrum auctions in several countries and
offerings, with strong regulatory policies by the end of the forecast period.
slower-than-expected growth. Service
and frameworks as well as public sector
providers continue to focus on creating
initiatives driving acceleration of growth
innovative products and services for both
of the 5G market. 5G subscriptions are
consumers and businesses.
projected to grow from 13 to 70 million
An example of this is utilizing the
between 2022 and 2028, accounting for
capabilities of 5G standalone (SA) to build
86 percent of the total subscriptions at
network slicing use cases. There is
the end of the period.
significant momentum around 5G FWA.
Accounting for 73 percent of total
While service providers in Australia and
subscriptions currently, 4G is expected
the Philippines continue to expand their
to decline by 29 percent annually as
commercial 5G FWA offerings, a 5G FWA
subscribers increasingly move to 5G,
trial with sub-6 spectrum and mmWave is
and are offered various services such
being carried out in Indonesia. Service
as
providers are also forging partnerships
enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) and
and actively expanding the 5G ecosystem.
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA).
Additionally, service providers will
Latin America
continue to explore enterprise
4G is currently the dominant radio access
opportunities, as major digital
technology in the region, accounting for 74
transformation projects take place across
percent of all subscriptions at the end of
various industries.
2022. 4G subscription growth is strong,
with around 60 million added during 2022.
Central and Eastern Europe
However, 3G subscriptions are declining as
Technology adoption and subscription
users migrate to 4G and 5G. Many service
uptake are typically slower in this
providers will sunset 3G networks in the
region
next two years to enable the reuse of radio
than in Western Europe. This is due in
spectrum for 4G deployments.
part to slower spectrum allocation
The forecast for 5G subscriptions has
processes, as well as consumers being
been pushed forward one year, based on
reluctant to upgrade to more expensive
slow uptake and expected continued difficult
subscriptions. 4G is the dominant
macroeconomic conditions in the region.
technology, accounting for 73 percent of
There were around 7 million 5G subscriptions
all subscriptions at the end of 2022.
at the end of 2022. A more substantial
Mobile subscription growth
uptake is expected from 2024 onwards.
has flattened and is expected to be
By the end of 2028, 5G will account for
virtually zero in the coming years.
42 percent of all mobile subscriptions.
However, the migration from 2G/3G to 4G
continues
India, Nepal and Bhutan
to look strong up to 2024. From
Following the launch of 5G services in India
2025, 5G is expected to be the only
in early October 2022, India is seeing
growing subscription type.
aggressive 5G network deployments by
During the forecast period, there will
service providers. Fast-growing network
continue to be a significant decline in
availability across cities, attractive 5G pricing
3G subscriptions, from 22 percent of
and the growing availability of 5G
mobile subscriptions to just 1 percent.
smartphones has seen 5G subscriptions
reach around 10 million by the end of 2022.
South East Asia and Oceania
Pan-Indian availability of 5G networks by
Service providers are continuing to
the end of 2023/early 2024 will further fuel
expand their 5G population coverage. By
growth. 5G subscriptions are expected to
the end of 2022, 5G was available to
reach 700 million and are estimated to
around
account for 57 percent of mobile subscriptions
50 percent of the population in
in the region by the end of 2028. eMBB and
Malaysia and 66 percent in the
FWA are already emerging as the initial use
Philippines. At the same time, more than
cases for 5G.
80 percent of the population in
Meanwhile, 4G continues to be the
Australia and Thailand had access to
dominant subscription type driving
the technology, and Singapore achieved
connectivity and fueling data growth in
more than 95 percent coverage by mid-
the region. 4G subscriptions are forecast to
2022.2 Leading service providers in
decline from 820 million in 2022 to 500
Indonesia that launched commercial 5G
million by 2028. Total mobile
services using their existing spectrum
subscriptions in the region are estimated to
holdings are awaiting the release of
grow to 1.2 billion in 2028.
new 5G spectrum bands to expand
their networks. Meanwhile, service
providers in Vietnam are making good
progress with trials as they await
1 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2023

North East Asia spectrum for 4G and 5G.

Service providers have been investing Western Europe
in 5G to improve coverage and 4G is widely deployed and has North America
capacity, with a focus on indoor had the highest penetration of all The addition of mid-band spectrum
coverage. Strong 5G subscription regions at 79 percent at the end now enables superior multi-band
growth continued in 2022, adding of 2022. 5G experiences for many users. In
around 240 million subscriptions. 5G is 5G subscription growth was strong 2023,
the only growing subscription type and during the year, rising from 32 million 5G adoption is continuing to grow
is expected to reach 1.1 billion in in 2021 to 69 million at the end of strongly, with more than 250 million
the region at the end of 2024. The 2022. subscriptions expected by the year’s end.
rapid growth of 5G subscriptions, 4G is expected to decline in favor of FWA, providing high-speed internet to
supported by the availability of more 5G substantially increased 5G homes and small businesses, has become
device models, has positively impacted subscription uptake from 2023 the primary technology fueling fixed
service providers’ financial performance. onward. 5G subscriptions are broadband growth in North America. 5G
Major service providers in leading 5G anticipated to reach 143 million at is also growing in the enterprise segment
markets, such as mainland China, the end of 2023, representing 88 with wireless WAN to branch office
Taiwan and South Korea, have percent penetration by the end of locations and to serve mobile professions.
reported a positive impact of 5G 2028. Many service providers will be By 2028, around 410 million 5G
subscribers on service revenues and sunsetting 3G networks in the next subscriptions are expected, accounting for
ARPU. few years to enable the reuse of radio over 90 percent of mobile subscriptions.

2
Population coverage figures for each of these countries as reported by service providers in the region.
1 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2023

North East
Asia: A closer
look
The North East Asia region consists of five distinct,
vibrant markets at the center of modern digital innovation,
with 5G being one of the key enabling technologies.

Service providers in the North East However, in recent quarters they have Around one-third of all mobile subscriptions
Asia region made significant turned this around, and now show a are currently for 5G. More than 200 million
investments in early 5G deployments. modest increase in ARPU. In addition, 5G smartphones had been delivered to
South Korea was the first country to they are proactively looking for other the market in 2022, which accounted for
launch commercial 5G networks, and revenue opportunities from enterprises 35 percent of all global shipments.
these were available in all five markets and consumer financial services. The upgrade to SA took place just one
by 2020. Currently, Compared to some countries in year after the 5G commercial launch. Now,
5G population coverage and North East Asia, Japan still has room all 5G sites and the majority of 5G
subscription uptake in the region is for additional mid-band deployment, smartphones have SA capability. Currently,
ahead of most of the rest of the world. which is the optimum way for more than 95 percent of 5G traffic is
The region is home to key players consumers to experience high- carried by 5G SA technology. Based on SA,
from across the 5G ecosystem, performance new network capabilities have been
including leading service providers, 5G. Service providers are expected commercially available for over a year,
mobile infrastructure vendors, chipset to accelerate their investment in including network slicing for service
manufacturers, terminal providers 5G separation and differentiated offerings, and
and over-the-top (OTT) players. This deployment, especially with mid-band. Voice over New Radio (VoNR) for the
has helped to realize 5G This will continue to drive a positive evolution of voice. RedCap from 3GPP
monetization opportunities in the experience for consumers and help to Release 17, which reduces cost, power
region with tariff premiums, content realize 5G monetization opportunities. consumption and network resource needs is
aggregation and new service under field trials for cellular IoT solutions.
introductions such as Fixed Wireless Mainland China: Leading 5G in scale Leveraging early 5G SA deployment,
Access (FWA) and network slicing. 2023 is the fourth year since the service providers in mainland China have
Supported by strong macroeconomics, commercial launch of 5G. There were 2.64 successfully harnessed 5G private networks
healthy financial results for service million 5G sites in the country by the end as a new growth engine. According to MIIT,
providers and a full ecosystem of wireless of the year’s first quarter, including mid- more than 14,000 virtual private networks
and digital industries, regulators and band Massive MIMO in 2.6 GHz and 3.5 using network slicing were in service by
service providers have the shared GHz, FDD 700 MHz 2022.1
ambition to be leaders in 5G. and 2.1 GHz for national coverage,
and plenty of dedicated 5G indoor
sites.
been impacted by a government-led
Japan: Dynamic in initiative pressuring them to introduce lower tariff plans, causing ARPU
technology, steady in
deployment
The Japanese mobile market has a strong
focus on both the introduction of
advanced technologies and sustainability.
Major service providers in Japan are
exploring the potential for Cloud Radio
Access Networks (RAN), making it a
leading market in introducing this
technology. The focus on sustainability in
Japan is backed up by aggressive plans
from service providers to be carbon
neutral in their own activities by 2030.
In the telecom business environment,
Japanese service providers have
 1 Forecasts Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2023

Figure 4: North East Asia region mobile

subscriptions by technology (billion)
1.5
5G LTE (4G) WCDMA/HSPA (3G)
GSM/EDGE-only (2G)
1
2
.
5 0.5

2 0
declines since March 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
2020.

1
MIIT, www.miit.gov.cn/zwgk/zcjd/art/2023/art_9f5022af3cdf48789484117d9da03c58.html.
9 Forecasts

South Korea Japan

Mainland

Taiwan

Hong Kong SAR

South Korea: Advanced in 5G Monthly 5G data consumption was When it comes to monetization strategies,
adoption and service innovation around 3.6 times higher than for 4G service providers offer service bundling
Since South Korean service users when comparing the average including AR and VR services. Service
providers launched 5G commercial across all types of data plans. When providers are also expanding into the
services in comparing data consumption on enterprise segment with AI, data centers
April 2019, they have been at the unlimited plans and cloud.
forefront of 5G deployment and the difference is around 1.6 times.
performance. The government supports service Taiwan: Focused on 5G performance
Focus is on 5G mid-band, with no providers’ 5G ambitions and the need Service providers are continuously
low- or high-band services available for capacity, and plans to allocate improving network performance and are
yet. However, 5G population coverage additional spectrum bands to three ranking highly in third-party as well as
has already reached 94 percent. To service providers. The 3.40–3.42 local government benchmarking.
expand GHz band has already been Taiwanese service providers often appear
5G coverage nationwide, service providers assigned. near the top of 5G global benchmarks.
have introduced RAN sharing for South Korean service providers 5G subscriptions reached 7 million
cost-effective deployment in suburban promote the utilization of renewable in Taiwan in Q1 2023, which
and rural areas. Service providers energy translates
have plans to achieve 100 for RE100 roadmap to 30 percent penetration. Major service
percent population coverage implementation, an international providers expect penetration to reach
during 2024. climate initiative targeting 100 40 percent by the end of 2023. This
By the end of February 2023, 5G percent renewable energy for uptake in 5G has driven an increase in
subscription penetration reached over business activities.2 mobile service ARPU over the last 24
37 percent, and 5G subscribers months.
generated 78 percent of total mobile As unlimited data plans are prevalent
data traffic.

Figure 5: North East Asia region mobile data traffic (EB per in Taiwan, monthly data consumption
month) is among the highest globally, with an
average of 30 GB. A government
5G 2G/3G/4G survey
100
shows 46 percent of consumers
connect to mobile networks for
internet access even at home.

80 Hong Kong SAR: Positive 5G uptake

While total mobile subscription growth
remains flat-to-slightly-increasing,
the transition to 5G continues, with
60
penetration increasing from around
20 percent at the end of 2021 to
over
40 30 percent at the end of 2022. The
outlook is positive for 2023, with 5G
uptake expected to continue, plus the
return of revenue from roaming after the
20
pandemic. 5G FWA and enterprise
solutions are regarded as the new
business growth areas for service
providers.

0 2027
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
 2028

2
RE100, www.there100.org.
 1 Foreca Ericsson Mobility Report | June

Weak smartphone market

is not stopping 5G adoption
The high-end segment has been resilient, and
global market leaders performed better than
average.
Global smartphone shipments are expected to recover
in the second half of 2023.

• The fourth quarter of 2022 saw a

A growing number of service providers A second wave of RedCap devices is in
double-digit decline in the smartphone
are enabling New Radio standalone (NR development and will eventually compete
market, continuing the previously
SA) with low-cost IoT devices using LTE Cat-
reported trend in the first three
in their networks. As non-standalone 1.
quarters. This continued at the
(NSA) and SA support can coexist in a
beginning of 2023, with global
network, and SA-capable devices retain Non-terrestrial networks (NTN)
shipments dropping by 13 percent year-
support for the NSA mode of 5G, many SA Support for non-terrestrial connections in
on-year in the first quarter.1
deployments are carried out in a stepwise ordinary smartphones has started to
• Over 870 5G smartphone models
fashion. emerge in the last year. Satellite-based
have been launched in total, with
Device manufacturers can upgrade the networks can provide outdoor coverage in
more than 80 so far in 2023.
software on devices when sufficient nearly any location globally, but find it
• 5G smartphones are expected to
testing has been performed. With increased challenging
account for 62 percent of all
carrier aggregation capabilities in to provide the capacity of a ground-based
smartphones shipped in 2023.2
networks and devices, the SA proposition network. The first initiatives have targeted
• Even though foldable device shipments
is now deemed to be on par with NSA in emergency and personal safety use cases
grew by 26 percent in 2022, this
terms of data rates, while adding to the based on proprietary solutions. The use of
category represents only 1 percent of
many benefits of the new 5G core network. 3GPP-based NTN technology is expected
the smartphone market.
to open this market on a global scale.
RedCap – the new kid on the block
Evolution of network slicing and 5G SA
The first reduced capability (RedCap)
User equipment route selection policy
devices have been announced, further
(URSP), a capability that enables devices to
strengthening SA technology. These
automatically select network slices
are based on 3GPP Release 17 and are
according to which application they are
expected to target the current market for
using, has been introduced on laptops
LTE Cat-4 devices, such as smart
running Windows 11.
watches, pocket routers and IoT devices.

Figure 6: 5G technology market readiness

Legacy 2023 H1 2023 H2 2024 2025
SA SA/NSA
Architecture NR-DC (including mmWave)

2CC FDD, TDD, FDD+TDD

2-3CC FDD+TDD SDL 4CC FDD+TDD, 5CC FDD+TDD 6CC FDD+TDD
Carrier DL
3CC FDD 4CC FDD
aggregation
2CC TDD 3CC TDD 4CC TDD

UL 2CC
FDD+TDD

VoNR VoNR (selected markets)

SA (mmWave only) Fixed Wireless Access

mmWave 256 QAM DL

RedCap RedCap

Note: The graph illustrates the availability of network functionality, as well as support in devices.

1
Source: Canalys.
2
Source: IDC.
1 Foreca Ericsson Mobility Report | June

4G/5G IoT connections

rising as 2G/3G declines
LTE Cat-1 devices are increasingly
being used for a variety of use cases.

The Massive IoT technologies NB-

In 2022, broadband IoT (4G/5G) Figure 7: IoT connections (billion)
IoT and Cat-M – supporting wide-
reached 1.3 billion connections, and is the
area use cases involving large
technology that connects the largest IoT 2022 2028 CAGR
numbers of low-complexity, low-cost
share of all cellular IoT devices. This Wide-area IoT 2.9 6.0 13%
devices with
segment
long battery lives and low-to-medium mainly includes wide-area use cases that
throughput – continue to be rolled require higher throughput, lower latency Cellular IoT2 2.7 5.4 12%
out around the world. Globally, 125 and larger data volumes than can be Short-range IoT 10.2 28.7 19%
service
providers have deployed or commercially supported by Massive IoT devices.
launched NB-IoT networks and 56 have LTE Cat-1 devices, which support 10 Total 13.2 34.7 18%
launched Cat-M, while 40 have deployed Mbps downlink and 5 Mbps uplink
both technologies.1 The number of devices speeds, Note: Based on rounded figures.
connected by these technologies reached are increasingly being used for a
almost 500 million at the end of 2022. variety of use cases. Broadband IoT
The growth of Massive IoT will be further strengthened by the
technologies is enhanced by added introduction of RedCap. By the end of
capabilities in the 2028, almost 60 percent of cellular IoT
networks, enabling Massive IoT to co- connections are forecast to be
exist with 4G and 5G in frequency broadband IoT, with 4G connecting the
division duplex (FDD) bands, via majority. As 5G New Radio (NR) is
spectrum sharing. being introduced in old and
IoT devices connected via 2G and new spectrum, throughput data rates will
3G are in slow decline, and are predicted increase substantially for this segment.
to have a negative annual growth rate North East Asia is the leading
of around 20 percent up to 2028, as the region in terms of the number of
rate of switch-off for both technologies cellular IoT connections, and is
will continue to increase in the coming expected to pass
years. 2 billion connections in 2023.

Figure 8: Cellular IoT connections by segment and technology (billion)

Broadband IoT and Critical IoT

(4G/5G) Massive IoT (NB-IoT/Cat-M) Legacy (2G/3G)

0
2016
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
 1 Foreca Ericsson Mobility Report | June

1
Source: GSA March 2023.
2
These figures are also included in the figures for wide-area IoT.
1 Foreca Ericsson Mobility Report | June

Over 100 service

providers offering FWA
over 5G
About 40 percent of Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) service
providers, over 100 in total, are offering it over 5G. North America
and Western Europe have the highest regional adoption with close
to 70 percent of FWA service providers offering it over 5G.

FWA is growing solidly in terms of:

Continued increase of Regional variations
• number of mobile service providers
speed-based tariff There are large regional variations in the
offering FWA
plans proportion of service providers adopting
• proportion of those offering it over 5G
Speed-based tariff plans are commonly FWA:
• proportion of providers with
offered for fixed broadband services such • In North America, Western
speed-based tariff structures
as those delivered over fiber or cable. Europe, Central and Eastern
• amount of traffic served, as both
This type of plan is well understood by Europe as well as the Middle East
number of connections and traffic
consumers, enabling service providers to and Africa, over
volume
monetize FWA as a broadband 80 percent of mobile service
per connection increase
alternative. Over one-quarter of FWA providers offer FWA.
service providers now offer speed-based • Currently, North America stands out
Global FWA momentum
tariff plans as the region in which all of the
An updated Ericsson study of
(also referred to as quality of service, or service
retail packages offered by mobile QoS). providers studied have an FWA offering.
service providers1 has shown that The remaining three-quarters are still • North America has the highest
around best-effort, with volume-based tariff percentage of service providers offering
80 percent had an FWA offering, up plans (buckets of GB per month). speed-based tariff plans, with it
from 77 percent in November 2022.
being provided by 90 percent.
There are now 100 service providers,
• In both North America and
representing around 40 percent of FWA
Western Europe, around 70
service providers, offering services over
percent
5G.
of FWA service providers are
offering services over 5G.

Figure 9: Global FWA service provider adoption: 2020–2023 Figure 10: Regional FWA service provider adoption 2023

FWA (total)
FWA (total)
Percentage of FWA that is 5G
Percentage of FWA that is speed-based Percentage of FWA that is 5G Percentage of FWA that is speed-based
100%
100% 96%
90% 89%
84%

70%

60%

67% 51%
79%
77%77%
73%
69%
31%
61% 28%
56% 52%

14% 21%

9%
 32%
27%
25% 25%
21%
13% 41%

10% Foreca Ericsson Mobility Report | June

0%
Apr 20
Oct 20 Apr 21 Oct 21 Apr 22 Nov 22 Apr 23 North Western Central Middle APAC Latin
22% America Europe and Eastern East and America
Europe Africa
1
310 service providers, representing around 90 percent of global mobile revenues.
 1 Foreca Ericsson Mobility Report | June

Figure 11: FWA connections (millions)

5G FWA connections 4G and other technology FWA connections

350

300 Definition of FWA

FWA is a connection that
250
provides primary broadband
200 access through mobile
network-enabled customer
150 premises equipment (CPE). This
includes various form factors of
100 CPE, such as indoor (desktop
and window) and outdoor
50
(rooftop and wall-mounted). It
0 does not include portable
battery-based Wi-Fi routers or
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

FWA service provider advancements Over 300 million FWA connections by The number of FWA connections in
• Together, 2 leading service 2028 APAC is expected to nearly triple,
providers in the US have more than From 100 million at the end of 2022, increasing
5 million 5G FWA connections. FWA connections worldwide are projected its share of global FWA connections
• A service provider in Norway has to increase to 300 million by the end of from 36 to 46 percent by 2028.
become the first in Europe to close its 2028. This represents 17 percent of all
copper fixed broadband connections. Of the 300 FWA’s impact on global mobile data traffic
DSL network, and replace 51,000 million projected connections, nearly 80 FWA data traffic represented 21
of its connections with FWA percent are expected to be over 5G. percent of global mobile data traffic at
services. This has enabled energy the end of
savings comparable to usage levels Almost half of global FWA connections 2022 and is projected to grow by a factor
of a medium-sized Norwegian city. to be in Asia-Pacific (APAC) by 2028 of nearly 6 to reach 143 EB in 2028 –
• Oman – where 43 percent of The forecast has taken the high about 30 percent of total mobile data
all broadband connections are ambitions of 5G FWA in emerging traffic.
FWA – has experienced a 95 markets into account, increasing the
percent annual 5G FWA revenue number of connections as well as the
increase in 2022 (year-on-year). share of 5G FWA connections. Higher
• A major service provider in India volumes of In 2028, 5G will account for
has expressed the goal of 5G FWA in large, high-growth countries almost 80 percent of FWA

8
serving 100 million homes and such as India have the potential to drive connections.
businesses economies of scale for the overall 5G
with a combination of 5G FWA FWA ecosystem, resulting in affordable
services and fiber in the coming 2 to 3 CPE that will have a positive impact
years. across low-income markets.

%
• Japan has become one of the
first countries where all major
service providers offer 5G FWA,
including 5G standalone (SA)
support for FWA and/or
battery-powered Almost half of global FWA
pocket router services.
connections will be in APAC in 2028.

North Western Central and Eastern

%
50
Middle East and Africa Latin
Figure 12: Regional split in FWA connections: 2022–2028

300m FWA to represent 30 percent of global

100m in 2028
mobile data traffic in 2028.

3
in 2022

%
1 Foreca Ericsson Mobility Report | June

5G continues to drive
innovation in mobile service
packaging
As 5G begins to be seen as the default offering for
consumers, service providers are incentivizing subscribers
to move from previous-generation networks.

instead of 30 days.
Additionally, most offer a discount on the 24-
month contract option to incentivize users to
Key insights choose this over the 30-day option. Some
• As 5G matures, service form of data buckets are available from 99
providers are making it the percent of the surveyed service providers,
standard choice for consumers. while 43 percent offer at least
Only 22 percent of service 1 unlimited data package to consumers.
providers that offer 5G are Service providers with 5G commonly have
differentiating the price more unlimited packages available,
compared to their 4G offerings. sometimes limiting bucket packages to
• Around 58 percent of 5G service prepaid offers. Around 17 percent of the
providers offer bundles with service providers offering unlimited data
entertainment services included, have some boundary conditions tied to the
such as television and music offer. The majority (79 percent) with such
streaming or cloud gaming terms and conditions are among those
platforms. who offer 5G.
• On a country level, there is often There is a continuous shift back and
very little or no differentiation forth among the base offers, and during
between the prices and the 6 months since the previous survey,
packages for smartphones and 16 service providers have removed their
unlimited offers, while 17 have newly
An updated Ericsson study1 of retail introduced this type of package.
packages offered by 310 mobile This represents over 10 percent of the mobile
service providers worldwide shows service providers in the survey. Similar
that as 5G matures, service providers changes have been seen in the past,
are making it the standard choice for revealing some uncertainties and a lot of
consumers. experimentation. An example of this change
Only 22 percent of the 182 service is a service provider that removed unlimited
providers offering 5G are showing a price data from their general offerings and made it
difference which the consumer needs to exclusive to those customers who subscribe
pay in order to gain access to 5G to a bundle combining
services. Interviews undertaken in a fixed and a mobile subscription.
December 2022 and January 2023 reveal Nearly 70 percent of the service providers
that many service providers want to who removed their unlimited offerings now
actively move users over to 5G, as it is the provide service-based connectivity packages
more efficient technology. instead. With this type of package consumers
This number is expected to continue can purchase some form of add-on package,
to decrease as 5G matures and such as a “streaming pass” that allows
service consumption of video at an attractive price
providers actively move users from without using data from the base bucket.
their previous-generation networks.
The practice of having long-term
contracts as the default for SIM-only
plans seems to be continuing and
expanding among service providers, with
most of them setting the default option on
their websites to 24-month contracts
 1 Foreca Ericsson Mobility Report | June
These are designed either as “buckets Europe, and are now also appearing
The total number of service providers of hours,” in a few countries in
offering some type of service-based for example video streaming, to Latin America.
connectivity has reduced from 179 to be consumed over a month, or
176. for a few continuous hours of
At the same time, those who unlimited Only 22 percent of service providers
target high-consumption services consumption, which consumers that offer 5G are differentiating the
like video simply buy ”on demand” before price compared to their 4G offerings.

2
streaming, cloud gaming, or high-definition starting a movie or a gaming session.
audio remain at the same level (119). A new type of connectivity
Some shifts can be seen in this package which emerged during the
area, with a small drop in service pandemic typically offers

%
providers offering monthly discounted GB to use when working
unlimited packages, or studying from home. These
while there is an increase in those types of packages started in South
offering time-based packages instead. East Asia, expanded into Eastern

1
May 2023.
1 Foreca Ericsson Mobility Report | June

Content aggregation and gaming

Using speed tiers to segment offerings service providers in the country are
attract consumers to 5G
In our November 2022 updated study, it generally very similar. This is especially
It is common to offer bundles with
was found that 24 percent of 5G service apparent in Western Europe where there
various popular entertainment services
providers differentiated their offerings appears to be more focus on price than
included, such as television, music
for smartphones by using speed tiers. other differentiating factors. In rare cases,
streaming or cloud gaming platforms.
This number remains at 24 percent, there is one challenger service provider
Around 58 percent of 5G service providers
although the total number of service that has tried to streamline its offering,
are doing this in various forms. The most
providers limiting it to only two or three packages.
common practice is to increase the bundle
with 5G has increased from 174 to 182 However, in most cases they simply mimic
value (content) as the price of the tiers
in the survey. Around 68 percent of their larger competitors, with some small
increases. Another way of offering value-
these service providers use speed tiers price benefit for the consumer. Where
added services is for service providers to
in some combination with data new packaging schemes are being
act as content aggregators.
buckets, and introduced, it seldom takes more than a
Here, the service provider offers a menu
39 percent have a hybrid version (speed few months before others follow with very
where the consumer can choose from a
in combination with both data buckets similar packaging.
(sometimes large) variety of monthly or
and unlimited data tiers). Two service This is especially obvious where new
yearly subscriptions. In most cases, this
providers with 4G networks are also using ideas are being introduced, such as
menu is available regardless of which
speed to differentiate their packages. speed tiers. In most countries where
tier a subscriber is on, and the
This model is most common in speed tiers exist, most or all service
consumer has almost complete
Western Europe, where the highest providers in that country offer them.
flexibility in terms of the number of
proportion of unlimited offerings can However, it is quite common for the
services that can be added.
be found. Here, around 60 percent of challenger to stand out by offering only
The most proactive service providers
all service providers use speed tiers in the maximum speed across all price tiers.
place these offers clearly in the path of
combination with data buckets and
any customer shopping for a
15 percent have a hybrid version.
smartphone or SIM card subscription. Around 58 percent of 5G service
The value-add offered is not limited to providers offer bundles with
Lack of local differentiation entertainment services included.
digital content or streaming services but
On a global level, there is considerable

5
can include things
variation and the number of different
like football season tickets, cooking classes
packages used, as well as choices
or yoga sessions. Besides being able to
available to consumers, are increasing.
find all services in one place and sign up

%
However, at a country level, there is often
in a simple manner, a key benefit to
very little or no differentiation at all. For
consumers is often a small discount when
a consumer who is shopping for a new
selecting two or more of these services.
phone or subscription, the prices and
packages from the

Figure 13: Number of service providers per type of offering

Apr 2021
Oct 2021 Apr 2022 Nov 2022 Apr 2023

350

304 306 306 306

299
300

245
250 237 238
225
213

200
182
179 176
174
170
164 164
152151 154
147 146 147
150 136
140141
131 132
125 124 124
118
108 110 106
93 97 98 95
100 86 89 80 82
74
67

50

0
Buckets
Unlimited Service-based Off-peak Device-based FWA Family and Triple/quad 5G
share plans play
 1 Foreca Ericsson Mobility Report | June
Note: ”Off-peak” includes discounts to incentivize usage during low traffic periods, typically at night. ”Device-based” refers to consumer IoT offerings with SIM/eSIM,
typically smart watches or bag/dog trackers. Combination offers which include mobile, fixed broadband, landline and TV/media services are referred to as ”triple/quad
play.”
2 Foreca Ericsson Mobility Report | June

High-data users
driving mobile traffic
A significant proportion of traffic is generated by a limited number
of users, while application mix changes across subscriber clusters.

Traffic measurements from mobile

(messaging, VoIP, video calls and so percentage share for clusters with higher
networks in two advanced mobile
on) and web browsing, while over 30 data consumption. This suggests that
broadband markets show similarities and
percent of traffic comes from a long tail heavy and extreme users are more likely to
differences
of various apps.1 engage in downloading software and
in application usage among
gaming compared to other clusters. The
different subscriber groups.
Application mix and traffic share share of gaming for extreme users in the
The analysis is restricted to data
in sampled networks European network was around 3 percent
consumption on devices over cellular
When analyzing the application mix and in the North American network
networks, and subscriber groups have
and share of traffic in the sampled around 2 percent.
been clustered based on their monthly
networks, it should be considered that In both networks, the share of traffic
data usage. It is based on data from
these might not represent the absolute for software downloads, file sharing
traffic measurements in two commercial
shares of the total traffic, as some and gaming was significantly higher
4G and 5G networks in Europe and North
traffic could not for the
America.
be classified. For example, the absolute extreme users compared to all other clusters.
share of video traffic is presumably
One-tenth of users generate
higher across all subscriber clusters, as Traffic share increase for video-on-
70 percent of traffic
part of it is included in the category demand among high-data users
The distribution of subscribers across
“Other”. However, it remains true that In both sampled networks, social
different clusters and their data
analyzing the relative changes in media-generated video is
consumption varies from market to market,
application mix over subscriber clusters decreasing,
mostly depending on available data tariff
provides insights into different data while Video-on-Demand (VoD) streaming
plans. However, the traffic contribution of
consumption patterns. services are increasing their traffic share
the top percentile of users (in terms of
Video consumption: The dominant across subscriber clusters when going
data consumption) is usually very similar.
activity across all subscriber clusters. from light users to extreme users.
In both networks sampled, the top
Intense and extreme users have the North America: Social media-
10 percentile of users generated
highest percentages of video consumption, generated video is experiencing a decline
around 70 percent of the total
accounting for over 60 percent2 of total in its share of video traffic, from 88 to 49
traffic. In the
traffic in the sampled networks. Share of percent, while the share of VoD streaming
North American network, users
video increases by more than 20 services is increasing from 4 to 23 percent.
consuming over 20 GB per month
percentage points when comparing light In the North American network,
represented only around 14 percent of all
to intense users in both networks. YouTube has the highest share of video
users, but generated 80 percent of the
Social networking: The second traffic across all user groups, with light
total traffic.
most-consumed application after video. and moderate users having the highest
A similar pattern was found in the
The highest share of social traffic is in percentage. This is followed by
European network, where users with
the moderate to medium user groups in Facebook
consumption over 20 GB per month
both sampled networks. and TikTok up to and including heavy
represented around 17 percent of all
Audio: There is a difference users. For subscriber groups with more
users, but generated
between the sampled networks, where than
81 percent of the total traffic. Users with
the North American network share is 50 GB per month of data consumption,
a monthly data consumption of over 50
2–3 percent across subscriber clusters, TikTok has a higher share than
GB represented only around 5 percent of
while it is less than 1 percent in the Facebook.
users in the North American network and
European network. Europe: Social media-generated video
7 percent in the European network.
Gaming3 and software downloads: is experiencing a decline in its share of
Light consumers of data, those
This category represents a relatively low video traffic, from 93 to 71 percent, while
consuming less than 5 GB per month,
percentage of traffic. For gaming, it is the share of VoD streaming services is
make up 63 percent of all users in the
below 1 percent across subscriber increasing from 1 to 17 percent.
European network. Among these
clusters up to intense users, with an In the European network, Facebook
users, a significant share of traffic, 16
increasing has the highest share of video traffic across
percent, comes from communications
all user clusters, with light and moderate
services
users having the highest percentage.
 2 Foreca Ericsson Mobility Report | June

1
For example: email, location services, photo sharing, weather, presence, health or fitness.
2
Unclassified video traffic is part of the category “Other.”
3
Includes both app-based and cloud gaming.
2 Foreca Ericsson Mobility Report | June

Figure 14: European service provider: Subscriber and traffic

volume shares of different subscriber clusters In both networks, the Netflix share of
traffic goes from 1–5 percent among light
Light Moderate Medium Heavy Intense Extreme to intense users to make up around
13 percent of the video traffic among
extreme users (over 100 GB per
Subscrib

month).
er

Facebook and YouTube have the

highest video traffic share in both
networks across all subscriber clusters,
Traf

with a typical joint share of 50–60 percent

fic

of total traffic.
Across both networks, Facebook has a
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
90% 100% significant percentage of video traffic share
for all subscriber clusters, but its share
decreases significantly with increasing
Figure 15: North American service provider: Subscriber and
data consumption. The YouTube share of
traffic volume shares of different subscriber clusters
traffic displays a similar trend, while
TikTok shows a trend toward an
Light Moderate Medium Heavy Intense Extreme
increasing share of traffic with increasing
data consumption.
Subscrib
er

Impact of video
Video is having a significant influence
on data consumption and traffic
volumes in advanced mobile broadband
markets.
This trend is being driven by intense
and extreme users, who have the
highest percentages of video
consumption.
Traf
fic

Video traffic share changes across

subscriber clusters when going
from
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% light users to extreme users, with
social media-generated video
reducing its share in favor of a higher
share of VoD
Figure 16: European service provider: Traffic streaming services.
volume per application type of different subscriber
clusters
Other 4
100%
90% Marketplace
80% Gaming
70% File sharing
60%
Software download
50%
Storage services
40%
30% Web browsing
20% Communication
10% Social networking
0%
<5 5–10 GB 10–20 20–50 50–100 GB >100 GB All
GB Audio
Moderate GB GB Intense Extreme
Light Medium Heavy
Video
Figure 17: North American service provider: Traffic volume Unclassified5
per application type of different subscriber clusters
VoD streaming services
(Netflix, HBO Max, Disney +, Amazon Prime)
100%
Social media-generated video
90%
(YouTube, TikTok, Facebook, Instagram)
80%
Video (all)
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
<5 G B Lig ht 5–10 GB
 2Moderate Foreca
10–20 GB 20–50 GB 50–100 Intense >100 GB All
Ericsson Mobility Report | June

Medium Heavy GB Extreme

4
”Other” includes uncategorized traffic and traffic from services that have too small a share to be significant
compared to the categorized segments in this figure. A large share of ”Other” is presumably video traffic.
5
”Unclassified” includes video traffic that was not possible to identify as a specific service or has too
small a share to be significant compared to the specified services.
 2 Foreca Ericsson Mobility Report | June

Mobile network traffic has

almost doubled in two years
Mobile network data traffic grew 36 percent
between Q1 2022 and Q1 2023.

The quarter-on-quarter mobile network

traffic has almost doubled in just 2 by increased viewing of video content.
data traffic growth between Q4 2022
years, from 66 EB per month in Q1 Figure 18 shows the net addition and
and Q1 2023 was around 7 percent.
2021. total global monthly network data traffic
Total monthly global mobile network
Long-term traffic1 growth is being from Q1 2016 to Q1 2023, along
data traffic reached 126 EB. In
driven by both rising smartphone with year-on-year percentage
absolute numbers, this means mobile
subscriptions and increasing average growth for mobile network data
network
data volume per subscription, fueled traffic.
primarily

Figure 18: Global mobile network data traffic and year-on-year growth (EB per month)

Data Year-on-year growth

140 140

120 120

100 100
Total (uplink + downlink) traffic (EB per

Year-on-year growth

80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Source: Ericsson traffic measurements (Q1 2023).

Note: Mobile network data traffic also includes traffic generated by Fixed Wireless Access services.

1
Traffic does not include DVB-H, Wi-Fi or Mobile WiMAX. VoIP is included.
 2 Foreca Ericsson Mobility Report | June

5G to account for all

mobile data growth within
5 years
In 2027, all mobile data traffic growth
will come from 5G, as 4G traffic
declines.

Total global mobile data traffic –

uplink. Currently, video traffic is estimated can be attributed to three main drivers:
excluding traffic generated by Fixed
to account for 71 percent of all mobile improved device capabilities; an increase
Wireless Access (FWA) – reached 93 EB
data traffic, and this share is forecast to in data-intensive content; and growth
per month at the end of 2022 and is
increase to 80 percent in 2028. in data consumption due to
projected to grow by a factor of 3.5 to
Populous markets that launch 5G continued improvements in the
reach 329 EB per month in 2028. When
early are likely to lead in terms of traffic performance of deployed networks.
FWA is included, total mobile network
growth over the forecast period. 5G’s share An example of these differences can
traffic reached around 118 EB per month
of mobile data traffic was 15 percent at be seen in the contrast between the
at the end of 2022 and is expected to
the end of 2022, an increase from 9 Sub-Saharan Africa region, where
reach 472 EB per month by the end of
percent at the end of 2021. This share is the average monthly mobile data
2028. Predicted traffic growth up to 2028
forecast to grow to 66 percent in 2028. usage per smartphone was 4.7 GB,
includes an assumption that an initial
and the
uptake of
Traffic growth varies across regions Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries
XR-type services, including AR, VR and
Traffic growth between years can be which had 26 GB per smartphone at the
mixed reality (MR), will happen in the
highly volatile and can vary end of 2022. The global monthly average
latter part of the forecast period.
significantly between countries, usage per smartphone is anticipated to
However, if adoption is stronger than
depending on local market dynamics. exceed 20 GB in 2023 and is forecast
expected, data traffic could increase
Globally, the growth in mobile data to reach 47 GB by the end of 2028.
significantly more than currently
traffic per smartphone Average monthly mobile data usage per
anticipated toward the end of the forecast
smartphone in North America is expected
period, particularly in the
to reach 58 GB in 2028, as unlimited
data
Figure 19: Global mobile network data traffic (EB per plans and improved 5G network coverage
month) and capacity increasingly attract new mobile
FWA (3G/4G/5G) 50 Mobile data (5G) Mobile data (2G/3G/4G)

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100
 2 Foreca Ericsson Mobility Report | June
and FWA 5G gaming, XR traffic, and more 2028, 5G subscription penetration in North
subscribers. and video- data from devices America is predicted to be the highest of
The data based off-loaded to all regions, exceeding 90 percent.
traffic apps. cloud computing In Western Europe, service usage
generated per These resources to and traffic growth are expected to follow
minute of experiences satisfy users. similar patterns to those anticipated for
usage will require FWA has started North America. Although a more fragmented
increase higher to affect overall market situation has led to a later
significantly in video traffic patterns, mass-market adoption of 5G, by 2028
line with the resolutions, accounting for a traffic usage per smartphone is projected
expected increased large share of to reach 56 GB per month – close to
uptake of uplink total traffic. In the usage in North America at that time.

0
2017
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
 2 Foreca Ericsson Mobility Report | June

Figure 20: Mobile data traffic per smartphone (GB per month) CAGR
2022–
65 Regions 2022 2028 2028

India, Nepal,
60 26 62 16%
Bhutan
55
GCC 26 59 15%
50
North America 20 58 20%
45
Western Europe 20 56 19%
40
North East Asia 18 54 20%
35
South East
30 15 54 24%
Asia and
Oceania
25
Global average 16 47 20%
20
Latin America 11 41 25%
Middle East and
15 North Africa1 12 37 20%
10 Central and
Eastern Europe 14 37 18%
5
Sub-Saharan Africa 4.7 19 26%
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

The North East Asia region’s share of

at 37 GB at the end of the period. GCC Mobile data traffic per smartphone
total global mobile data traffic is expected
countries will still experience growth in continues to grow strongly in South East
to be around 30 percent in 2028. In the
data traffic despite slow growth in total Asia and Oceania and is expected to
region, 5G subscribers currently use, on
overall subscriptions, as data usage per reach around 54 GB per month in 2028
average, 2–3 times more data than 4G
smartphone rises by 15 percent annually – a CAGR of 24 percent.
subscribers. As more 4G subscribers
between 2022 to 2028 to reach an In Latin America individual
migrate to 5G, average mobile data
average of 59 GB monthly. This will be countries show very different growth
traffic per smartphone will increase and
driven by growing uptake of data- rates for data traffic per smartphone.
reach 54 GB per month
intensive services. Various industrial use Traffic growth
in 2028. Video is the dominant traffic type.
cases for 5G will also contribute to a rise is driven by coverage build-out and
Additional traffic growth is expected with
in total data traffic. continuing strong adoption of 4G
the introduction of new video services,
In India, Nepal and Bhutan, (and eventually 5G), linked to a rise
for example HD video and XR services.
mobile networks continue to play a in
Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to be
pivotal role in driving social and smartphone subscriptions and an
the region with the highest growth in
economic inclusion. In the case of increase in average data usage per
total mobile data traffic, rising by 37
India, enhanced mobile broadband is smartphone.
percent annually between 2022 and
serving as the foundation The average data traffic per smartphone
2028 as service providers across the
for the government’s “Digital India” is expected to reach 41 GB per month in
continent continue to invest in 4G
vision, which seeks to transform the 2028.
networks and migrate customers from
country In Central and Eastern
2G and 3G.
into a digitally empowered society Europe, growth is fueled by the
This increase in data traffic will
and knowledge economy. migration of
primarily be driven by a 4 times
Average data traffic per smartphone 2G and 3G subscribers to 4G, up to 2024,
increase in smartphone traffic in the
in the India region is the highest which is when 5G is expected to overtake
period, with average data per active
globally, together with GCC. It is previous generations as the technology
smartphone settling at 19 GB per
projected to grow from 26 GB per month making the greatest contribution to
month in 2028.
in 2022 to around 62 GB per month in subscriptions. Over the forecast period,
In the Middle East and North
2028 – a CAGR of monthly average data traffic per
Africa region, data traffic growth will
16 percent. Total mobile data traffic is smartphone is expected to increase
similarly be driven up as more
estimated to grow from 18 EB per from 14 GB to around 37 GB per month.
subscribers are
month in 2022 to 58 EB per month in It is important to bear in mind that
transitioned to 4G, and current momentum
2028, growing at a CAGR of 22 there are significant variations in
in 5G coverage increases uptake, in
percent. This monthly data consumption within all
addition to attractive service offerings
is driven by high growth in the number regions,
and more affordable smartphones. Total
of smartphone users and increased with some individual countries and
data traffic is forecast to rise by 27 percent
average usage per smartphone. service providers having considerably
annually between 2022 and 2028 with
Smartphone subscriptions in India as higher monthly consumption than any
monthly data usage per smartphone
a percentage of total mobile subscriptions regional averages.
are expected to grow from 76 percent in
2022 to 93 percent in 2028.
 2 Foreca Ericsson Mobility Report | June

1
All Middle East and North Africa figures include GCC countries.
 2 Foreca Ericsson Mobility Report | June

5G population
coverage has reached
35 percent
Globally, 5G mid-band population coverage has reached around 30
percent. However, outside China it is just over 10 percent. There are large
variations between regions, ranging from 7 percent to 90 percent.

4G population coverage surpassed most markets. Combined with a low- Europe has large variation between
85 percent globally at the end of 2022 band frequency division duplex (FDD) 5G 58 percent total 5G population coverage
and is projected to reach over 95 percent carrier it can provide full coverage and and mid-band coverage of around
in 2028. There are currently 816 4G mobility. While 5G mid-band population 15 percent (both figures excluding Russia).
networks deployed worldwide, with 336 coverage reached 30 percent worldwide This is due to the limited availability
upgraded to LTE-Advanced and 62 by the end of 2022, outside China it is of mid-band spectrum in some
Gigabit enabled.1 estimated to be just over 10 percent. countries, resulting in deployments
The build-out of 5G continues, with There are large regional variations in being mainly in low-band. North
around 240 networks launched worldwide. total 5G population coverage as well as America has 5G deployments across
Global 5G population coverage reached mid-band coverage. Regions such as low-, mid- and high-band frequencies.
around Latin America and Middle East and Several service
35 percent at the end of 2022 and is Africa have reached about 7 percent providers have deployed 5G on low-band,
projected to increase to about 85 percent mid-band population coverage, with a covering around 95 percent. During recent
in 2028. similar total years, mid-band has been rapidly
5G population coverage of around 8 deployed and has now reached around 80
Large regional variations in percent. percent.
5G population coverage China has built 5G population
Mid-band is a sweet spot for delivering coverage mainly on mid-band and has
the 5G experience, as it combines high reached coverage of around 90 percent.
capacity with good coverage and is
available in

Figure 21: World population and mid-band

Figure 22: World population
coverage split by region (end of 2022)
coverage by technology

5G mid-band 5G total
4G
30% 2022 >85%
World 35%
2028 >95%
World 10%
(without China) 20%
5G
80% ~35%
North 2022
America 95%
2028 ~85%
Latin 7%
America 8%

Europe 15%
(without Russia) 58% Globally, 5G population
7% coverage
8%
Middle East
and Africa
12% China
13%
Asia-Pacific
(without China)
90%
90%
 3
3 Foreca Ericsson Mobility Report | June
reached 35
percent at

%
the end of
2022.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Note: The figures in these graphs refer to coverage of each technology. The ability to utilize the technology is subject to factors such as access to devices and
subscriptions.
1
Ericsson and GSA (May 2023).
Advanced services and new devices including AR, VR and mixed
reality will drive additional traffic growth. New requirements will
also be placed on networks as traffic patterns change. Ensuring
these services are a success is a matter of preparing the networks
for this increased demand, as well as making sure services are
viable and can be commercialized. Our articles focus on being
prepared for this future demand, discussing modeled scenarios,
required network capabilities and experience of live network slicing
implementation.
The articles discuss how service providers can meet both
consumer demand and enterprise expectations on service quality.

Traffic demand is up to
Network slicing can be AR uptake, and therefore As consumer expectations
1,000 times larger in dense
successfully monetized demand for network on mobile QoE grow
urban than rural locations.
through offering premium capacity, is predicted to alongside the uptake of new
Analysis of North American
services to 5G customers, accelerate services, the need to improve
and European networks
as Singtel proved at the in the coming years. In this mobile network performance
provides insights for service
Singapore Grand Prix. article, a modeled scenario will
providers as to how they
With Singtel, this article shows how AR demand is also rise. Yet, traditional
should consider location,
explores the future of projected to outpace mobile ways of measuring mobile
plus traffic consumption
differentiated services broadband capacity growth, QoE
patterns, when designing
over 5G. and discusses what are limited in their usefulness,
networks.
additions will be needed to and new models must
keep pace. be developed.
2 Artic Ericsson Mobility Report | June

Exploring how traffic patterns

drive network evolution
To achieve optimum 5G performance, both
coverage and capacity must be available
throughout the network according to location-
specific needs.

different location types: dense But it has been much lower in rural areas
urban, urban, suburban and rural with growth below 10 percent. The
Key insights areas. proportion of traffic on 5G in rural areas is
Traffic demand per location is 500 to lower due to reduced population coverage
• Traffic demand is up to 1,000
1,000 times higher in dense urban at the current stage of network
times larger in dense urban
locations relative to more sparsely deployment and also likely lower
areas relative to rural areas.
populated penetration of 5G devices.
• More services now require
rural locations in both Western When comparing North America with
uplink performance to be
Europe and North America. Western Europe, there are a couple of key
considered. This becomes
In Western Europe, relative growth differences that can be observed in the 2022
even more critical for new
in traffic during peak periods across the traffic. Firstly, traffic demand is higher
uplink-demanding services
four different locations between 2021 in North America in both dense urban
like XR.
and 2022 can be seen in Figure 23. and urban locations. Secondly, in all
• The 5G rollout is far from
Data for the most recent year shows locations, a greater proportion of traffic
complete. 5G mid-band is only
that traffic growth per location is highest comes from 5G, which is likely a driving
deployed
in dense urban and urban locations, with factor behind higher traffic volume in
in around 25 percent of 4G
up to 80 percent growth. urban areas.
sites globally, with North

Figure 23: Relative traffic growth for peak period by location type in Western Europe
Mobile networks must continuously
4G 5G
evolve within the RAN domain, utilizing
mid-band
and mmWave to meet capacity and
Dense urban Urban
speed demands, but not all locations are
Relative traffic for busy hour Relative traffic for busy hour
equal. This is highlighted by a detailed
analysis of data traffic growth and 2 2
patterns across
different locations in some North American 1.5 1.5
and European networks, providing
key insights and considerations
1 1
for network evolution.

Traffic growth is not 0.5 0.5

universal across locations
Variations in subscriber concentrations 0 0
are clearly illustrated when traffic growth 2021 2022
in several networks from Western
Suburban
Europe and North America are analyzed
across Relative traffic for busy hour

1.4 1.2

Methodology 1.2 1
In Western Europe, traffic 1
0.8
data was retrieved from 4
0.8
networks, with 21 data sets 0.6
from across 0.6
18 locations, collected in Q3 0.4
0.4
2021 and Q3 2022. In North 0.2
0.2
America, 30 data sets were
retrieved from 3 networks 0 0
2021 2022
 2 Artic Ericsson Mobility Report | June

2021 2022

Rural
Relative traffic for busy hour

2021 2022
 2 Artic Ericsson Mobility Report | June

Traffic behavior drives different

Examination of network data across the The 5G deployments in Western Europe
needs across locations
locations shows that, although total traffic and North America for the locations
To support network evolution strategies, it
is significantly higher in urban locations, sampled give a snapshot of the status
is important to understand traffic patterns
individual traffic in peak periods is highest of network deployment in the two
and behavior in more detail in different
in suburban locations, with this difference regions, as illustrated in Figure 25.
locations. Understanding daytime
being much more pronounced in Western The figure shows the proportion of sites
population density is very important,
Europe. This shows how the combination that have been upgraded to 5G NR
especially in dense
of population density and peak usage per FDD, compared to sites where 5G
urban-to-urban areas, since the
user is important when considering carriers have been added in either the
highest traffic is in the middle of the
network capacity requirements. mid-band TDD or with mmWave.
day in both Western Europe and North
Depending on the capacity demands of a
America.
North America leads Europe particular site, mid-band TDD and
Figure 24 shows that in Western Europe,
with mid-band deployments mmWave carriers can be co-located at
dense urban areas have the peak traffic
Globally, 5G population coverage the same site.
period during the middle of the day,
reached 35 percent at the end of 2022. In Western Europe, it is notable that
compared with the rural areas, which
However, when looking into the mid- while the 5G NR FDD bar is as high as
have the peak traffic period in the
band deployments that bring the step North America – or higher in certain
evening.
change in network performance, only cases – much of this has been achieved
The rural areas are likely to be impacted by
about through spectrum sharing. This gives a
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA)
25 percent of 4G sites have been high level of coverage but without the
subscriptions which have a significantly
upgraded, and outside China this drops same levels of capacity, latency, or uplink
higher usage per subscription. North
to around capabilities.
America follows a similar pattern, and in
20 percent. There is a significant In North America, there has been
both regions urban and suburban traffic
difference in the regions studied here, a focus on mid-band and mmWave from
has a much flatter profile with the highest
with North America at over 30 the early stages of 5G deployment to
traffic levels more evenly distributed
percent and Europe just above 10 deliver higher capacity alongside coverage.
between the middle of the day and the late
percent. mmWave is capable of supporting higher
evening before traffic drops off.
Looking at the specific networks capacity in the network for dense urban
Analysis of traffic by location shows a
analyzed, 5G has been and urban locations. Since the data set
greater proportion of total traffic is uplink
commercially deployed in Western was collected, the North American
in dense urban locations in the peak period
Europe and North America since operators have continued deploying mid-
compared with other locations. In North
2019, but rollout is far from band
America, dense urban uplink traffic is
complete. In Europe, some additional at pace, as reflected in the number
around 14 percent of total traffic compared
sites, totaling around 5–10 percent, of sites deployed now being higher
with rural areas, where it is around 9
have been added to than the global average.
percent of total traffic. Traditionally for
suburban and rural areas to meet
mobile broadband and FWA services,
increased coverage expectations and
uplink has had
license obligations. The focus on fulfilling
a smaller impact on overall user
coverage requirements is reflected in the
experience. However, with more uplink-
much higher levels of New Radio (NR)
centric services there is now also a need
frequency division duplex (FDD)
to consider uplink performance, especially
sites deployed for coverage, compared
in dense urban areas. This is also required
with mid-band time division duplex
to prepare for new uplink-demanding
(TDD) sites for capacity in the networks
services like XR, which will place even
analyzed from Western Europe.
more demanding requirements on
networks.

Figure 24: Western Europe hourly traffic over a typical 24 hours

Dense urban – Western Europe Rural – Western Europe

Percentage of data traffic per

00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00
2 Artic Ericsson Mobility Report | June
Time of day
25 Articles Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2023

Rollout is far from complete

Figure 25: Relative site density of 5G deployments
Network deployment comprises
both coverage and capacity sites. NR FDD NR mid-band TDD mmWave
Coverage sites provide basic
geographical coverage while EU US EU US
capacity sites add extra capacity 50%
where coverage is good and
there is a high density of
subscribers. 40%
To achieve optimum 5G performance,
both coverage and capacity must be
available throughout the network.
30%
Upgrading coverage sites with
5G enables coverage to be built
out, but upgrades of capacity
20%
sites are also required to realize
5G services to most subscribers.
Our analysis shows that firstly
there are still 10%
existing sites without 5G, which
need upgrading to 5G to enhance
network coverage. Secondly, there 0%
are Dense urban, relative site density Urban, relative site density
many sites without the additional
capacity dimensions, and mid-band
TDD deployments, needed to deliver
the step change in 5G performance.
Without network evolution,
resource utilization will increase,
resulting in poor user experience. EU US EU US
Therefore, peak utilization must 50%
be maintained or, ideally,
reduced over time to offer higher
speeds and ensure a high-quality
user experience.

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Suburban,
Rural,
relative site density
relative site density
26 Articles Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2023

Exploring differentiated
services with 5G
networks
At the 2022 Singapore Grand Prix (GP), Singtel became
the world’s first service provider to deploy 5G network
slicing at a major sporting event – and demonstrated the
commercial opportunities of differentiated connectivity
services.
to change as new applications that
• Energy Market Authority (EMA) to
leverage 5G, such as AR and VR, become
investigate the potential of 5G in
Key insights smart grid technology
more prevalent.

• Supported by network • a multinational automotive

manufacturer deploying 5G-
slicing, racing fans at the
Singapore GP enjoyed enabled robots that will help
transport vehicle-manufacturing
high-quality video streams,
taking their event materials for the development of
Singapore’s first build-to-order
experience to the next level.
(BTO) electric vehicle (EV) factory
• A consumer service
based on 5G network • the healthcare sector as a key area
slicing must be for 5G implementation, with
appealing, valuable and potential
differentiated with clear benefits applications including remote healthcare
compared to a 4G service. monitoring and telemedicine
• Network slicing
enables the Singtel has launched a 5G SA network
introduction of new with an aim to support new digital
growth opportunities within consumer,
Singapore is an island country, similar enterprise
in size to New York City, with a and public sector segments. Its 5G
population of around 6 million people. strategy includes a network evolution
In July 2022, it became the first country journey to a fully automated network with
in the world to be fully covered (95 intelligent orchestration capabilities,
percent) by enabling consumers and enterprises to
5G standalone (SA). subscribe
The Singaporean government’s on-demand to multiple products, services
Infocomm Media Development Authority or use cases.
(IMDA)1 is driving a national digital
transformation plan, which emphasizes Deploying nationwide 5G SA coverage
the importance of a world-class 5G In May 2021, Singtel launched the
infrastructure to enable innovative new world’s first nationwide 5G SA network,
use cases and transform industries. Among despite the network rollout challenges at
the initiatives are new policies to the time due to the pandemic. It has
encourage and foster collaboration currently achieved island-wide coverage
between industry players. of over
Examples of such IMDA initiatives 95 percent with 3.5 GHz TDD and 2.1
include partnering with: GHz spectrum bands. As of March 2023,
• Building and Construction Authority more than 760,000 subscribers had
(BCA) to develop a 5G-enabled Building signed up for 5G subscriptions. In terms
Information Modeling (BIM) system that of the top 10 most used applications, the
will improve productivity and safety in behavior of 4G and 5G subscribers is
the construction industry largely similar
• Land Transport Authority (LTA) to with strong data usage across social
explore the use of 5G in media and video applications. This is
autonomous vehicle technology expected
However, Singtel is already seeing Challenges of indoor locations, in underground sites and
significantly higher data consumption implementing 5G in along underground train lines where traffic
among 5G customers. This is partly Singapore demand is substantial. However,
attributed to consumers being able to Singtel considers extensive 5G SA considering most of Singapore’s geography
experience higher-quality video and coverage, combined with network slicing consists of dense urban areas, ensuring
richer media over its 5G network, capabilities, to be key for unlocking new coverage for high-rise buildings and
contributing customer values. An essential part of underground areas has been a significant
to a better customer experience. its 5G SA deployment strategy includes challenge.
extensive coverage for more than 700

1
www.imda.gov.sg/How-We-Can-Help/5G-Innovation.
27 Articles Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2023

The main challenges Singtel

Network slicing opens Differentiating consumer offerings
had to overcome were:
new opportunities with network slicing
• Line-of-sight obstruction: Obstacles
5G network slicing enables multiple During 2022, Singtel applied a
such as walls, floors and other
independent logical networks to exist on test-and-learn approach to ensure that
structures present a significant
the same physical network infrastructure. network slicing was correctly implemented.
challenge as they can cause signal
Each slice serves as an isolated end-to- Two excellent test case opportunities were
blockages, leading
end network accommodating different the Singapore GP in October and the
to poor coverage.
application requirements for security, World Cup football tournament in December.
• Signal attenuation: High-rise
reliability and performance. It enables Singtel was the first service provider in
buildings and underground areas
service providers to go from providing the world to use radio resource
often contain materials that absorb or
one-size-fits-all wireless connectivity to partitioning and deliver end-to-end
reflect 5G signals, causing signal
services and customer-adapted network slicing in a live 5G SA network
attenuation.
network slices for specific use cases. As for the Singapore GP.
• Limited space: High-rise buildings
the capabilities of 5G networks evolve, More than 300,000 spectators attended
and underground areas often have
slices will progress from being static the event in the Marina Bay area,
limited space, making it challenging
(preconfigured) with basic functionality concentrated in small areas around the
to install 5G antennas or small cells.
to being dynamically created, deployed racetrack.
• High-density areas: Singapore is a
and modified as customer needs Live streams of sports typically experience
high-density city, prone to
change (on-demand). The latter will lag, jitter and other disturbances in busy
congestion,
enable and congested radio environments, which
resulting in poorer customer experience.
on-time and fast delivery of slices with has a negative impact on the viewing
• High costs: Deploying 5G
automated deployment and operations. experience. Given that F1 cars can reach
infrastructure in high-rise buildings
For service providers, slice observability, speeds of more than 300 km/h, fans in
and underground areas can be costly
orchestration, automation and service attendance will want ways to watch the
due to the complex and challenging
level agreement (SLA)-based charging race around
nature of the installation process.
are critical functionalities to both manage the whole F1 circuit. This presented an
and monetize network slices. excellent opportunity to test the
To overcome these challenges,
Network slicing will play an capabilities of 5G network slicing, where a
fundamental radio planning designs need
instrumental role in supporting different dedicated slice of Singtel’s network was
to be sound, including the deployment of
QoS and service-based connectivity reserved
the right number of cell sites to ensure 5G
offerings. For most communications for subscribers of Sports Plus, a service on
coverage and use of all the available 5G
service providers, network slicing is Singtel’s video streaming platform (CAST).
spectrum bands in an optimal manner.
currently about trialing, exploring and The slice was designed and configured
With strong 5G traffic growth, the network
learning from such deployments. end-to-end in the core, transport, and radio
needs
networks to enable higher throughput
to be able to handle demanding use
and consistent low latency. In addition,
cases and still be capable of serving
radio sites were allocated a radio resource
casual users with internet traffic.
partition to provide protection for radio
Network
resources in the event area.
technologies such as slicing, radio resource
partitioning2 and quality of service (QoS)
features are increasingly important for
managing different use cases and traffic
demands efficiently.

Premium subscribers at
the Singapore GP
enjoyed 437 Mbps on
average
due to network slicing.

43
2
Radio resource partitioning is a software solution that allocates
spectrum resources at millisecond-level scheduling.
28 Articles Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2023

Figure 26: Singtel’s view on network slicing use cases for the near to mid term

Segment 1–2 years 2–4 years

Individual customized slices Autonomous vehicles

Consumer Smart home devices and appliances Remote work and telecommuting

Logistics and transportation Smart cities

Smart factories and industrial IoT Remote training and education

Enterprise
Healthcare

Public safety and emergency Smart energy grids

Smart transportation infrastructure Smart water management

Public sector
Public Wi-Fi networks

5G subscribers who purchased CAST subscribe to a service and immediately

In a similar way, the expansion of
Sports Plus could stream content by enjoy it.
5G SA network slicing and radio
signing up to this package for SGD 9.90
resource
during the race weekend and enjoy an
partitioning across all of Singapore
excellent video experience everywhere
made it possible to offer full HD video
along the racetrack area, compared to 4G
streaming of World Cup football matches
subscribers. Users with a 4G subscription
for 5G subscribers with a Singtel TV
experienced lower video quality, due to
plan.
low downlink throughput (on average 4.2
Mbps) because of high traffic congestion,
Learnings from the first
while 5G premium package subscribers
network slicing
experienced a full
implementations
HD-quality stream due to a high
By applying a test-and-learn approach,
downlink throughput (on average 437
Singtel was able to better understand the
Mbps).
behavior of network slicing and radio
The value for the 5G network slicing users
resource partition mechanisms. This will be
was the assurance of seamless video
relied on when designing the 5G network
streaming under radio resource constraints.
to meet more demanding use cases from
The 5G network slicing was a “teaser”
both consumers and enterprises. It is also
for Singtel to learn how to implement a
important to have worked out a good
network slice with the right parameter
traffic forecast for the “slicing area” and
settings and radio resource management
to not under-dimension for both slice and
for this specific use case. Customers were
non-slice users. There should be a distinct
not charged extra for the network slicing
difference in experience for users of the
capabilities. The network slices were
generic service compared to users of the
manually preconfigured, with efforts
premium service enabled by network
being put into ensuring they were created
slicing. The implementation of radio
homogeneously in each tracking area.
resource partitioning in the live 5G
Going forward, this process will be
network meant that engineers were better
automated to increase efficiency and
able to understand the behavior of the
enable scaling. Network slice orchestration
feature. For example, using radio
will be an integral aspect of this process,
partitioning for generic users as well as
providing network slice management,
premium users resulted in unexpected
including planning, lifecycle management
results in certain scenarios. Network
and configuration. Another important
slicing design was subsequently
aspect will be to implement slice
amended based on insights from the
observability solutions to provide real-time
event.
visibility into slice performance so that
Another learning is the importance of
changes can be made on the fly in
having seamless service
response to changes in traffic patterns.
provisioning, making it easy and
convenient for customers to
Based on the Singapore GP
experience, Singtel has recognized
the business potential of deploying
network slices
to support new use cases in other
geographically limited areas, such as
shopping districts, convention centers,
stadiums, school campuses, factories,
airports and mines. Network slicing-
based services could also be dynamically
created and deployed in these limited
geographical areas, fulfilling a specific
need at the time
it is required. In those areas, a range of
customer segments that would benefit
from differentiated service offerings
could be identified by leveraging
customer and market research and
insights.

Opportunities for commercializing

network slicing
Singtel aims to understand how to
capture enterprise business requirements
through market research and surveys, in
order to then customize slice capabilities
for current use and to build service
evolution maps for the future. As new
use cases and business models evolve, a
better understanding
will emerge of what 5G performance levels
different customer segments prefer.
It is therefore important to build a network
slicing foundation that scales with new
customer insights.
Network slicing enables the
introduction of new business models for
different market segments, see Figure
27.
New services that can be offered include
customized subscriptions for specific services
and geolocation-based subscriptions to
satisfy specific customer needs, as below.
29 Articles Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2023

Figure 27: Market segment opportunities presented by network slicing

B2C
Consumers can be offered a range of service
B2B
Enterprises
plans withcan
different
be offered
attributes,
a rangefor
B2B2X
of performance-based
example
Service
an economy
providers
service
service
couldplans,
offer
plan network
which may
slicing-based c
(best-effort quality), a gaming service planbe
(QoS
applied
on-demand,
to different
guaranteed
applications
latency
andlevel)
tools
variety
orprovided
a performance-based
of customers
to their employees.
in different
premium
Industrial
market
service
segments,
enterprise
plan (gua
w
high-quality video and audio). different slices for various productivity- or for
process-oriented
their customers.internal operations.

B2B needs: Learnings from network When designing network slices,

• logistics management/port operations slicing implementation the user experiences of prioritized
to ensure the service assurance for the Network slicing is the starting point for and normal services need to be
operation of automated guided traffic segregation in the connectivity balanced within available network
vehicles (AGV) remotely via 5G layer. It will evolve into user equipment resources.
• surveillance/security to ensure video route selection priority (URSP) which For crowded events, a network slice with a
feeds continually transmit via 5G enables dynamic slicing where traffic can QoS guarantee also has to function in a
with reliable upload speeds be segregated by user application in the high radio noise environment. Therefore,
• medical applications to ensure remote device itself. an accurate forecast of traffic demands by
diagnostics can be performed via a Close cooperation with device users is required to balance resource
stable 5G connection manufacturers is required to shape URSP’s allocation between priority and non-priority
capabilities to market requirements. services. As customers expect their service
B2C needs: The main go-to-market challenge experience quality to be premium,
• app-based to differentiate user for 5G network slicing for the partnerships with over-the-top (OTT)
experience through different consumer service providers will be important to
application subscriptions segment is creating appealing and ensure the service is prioritized end to end.
• enhanced security for subscribers valuable services that are differentiated More advanced network and service
through network slicing from the current 4G offering. 5G SA and orchestration capabilities need to be
• priority access (location/geographical network slicing brings new capabilities, implemented as demand for network
based) to provide differentiated user such as data prioritization, faster speeds slices increases. Service assurance will be
experiences by location, for example and lower latency. However, these important, especially for industries
at gaming hotspots capabilities will require purposeful use where mission-critical operations will
cases with clear value propositions to require well-defined SLAs.
Singtel considers security slices to be one drive consumer adoption. Singtel is
of the early promising enterprise use constantly working to identify potential
cases. Figure 26 shows Singtel’s view on 5G use cases and migrating its non-5G
network slicing use cases for the near to customer base
mid term. to 5G subscriptions so that they can
enjoy the full benefits of 5G SA and
network slicing-based services.
 3 Artic Ericsson Mobility Report | June

AR uptake enabled
by mobile
networks
Video, messaging and multimedia services currently dominate mobile
broadband network traffic, with most of this coming from video streaming.
However, as AR traffic grows, questions about network coverage, capacity
and performance will need to be addressed.

Consequently, parameters have been This assumes all currently available

defined to model a scenario which enables spectrum is deployed, and takes industry
Key insights radio network capacity to be compared projected 5G performance evolution into
with expected traffic demand, and consideration. In particular, uplink will
• Growth in devices and
explores alternatives for increasing radio face challenges in meeting the projected
applications using AR in wide-
network capacity sufficiently to support traffic demand. Already, there is a need
area use cases is expected to
the growth of AR services. for additional capacity, for example
accelerate in the latter part of
through added mid-band spectrum.
this decade.
• Mobile networks will Methodology
need to be re- Data from Los Angeles, a city
dimensioned to handle the dominated by a dense urban low-rise Spectrum used in simulation:
traffic and performance landscape,
• 2x20 MHz low-band FDD
requirements of these was used to simulate the network impact
• 2x40 MHz mid-band FDD
new real-time services. of combined mobile broadband and AR
• 1x120 MHz mid-band TDD
• The solution will be a traffic. This was done under a range of
• + mmWave
combination of additional assumptions around AR uptake through
spectrum and new 2030. The aim was to explore the
Mobile broadband traffic and
functionality offering greater operating conditions under which mobile
simulation parameters for
efficiencies, complemented networks need to be prepared for
2030:
increased requirements, and the additional
• subscriber density: ~10,000/km2
AR enables users to experience radio network capacity that will be needed
• number of subscribers
information or digital objects overlaid onto to handle the projected demand.
constant over time
views of the physical world. The level of Mobile data traffic forecasts were taken
• average macro layer inter-
augmentation can vary from a simple into account to define growth rates, along
site distance: 700 m
display of information to fully realized with the AR traffic scenario. The forecasts
• total traffic demand (uplink
digital objects that adapt to the dynamic project average monthly mobile data
and downlink): 63 GB per
environment, moving as if they were traffic per device in GB, as well as total
month
physically present mobile traffic in EB per month.
• uplink share of total
in it, with multiple users simultaneously Ericsson simulations show that radio
traffic demand: 15
interacting with them. These new services network capacity in areas like Los
percent
hold the promise of a leap forward in the Angeles will narrowly meet mobile
• share of traffic
digitalization of industrial and business broadband traffic requirements around
during a busy hour:
processes as well as offering new ways 2030.
to communicate. Consumers will also
benefit,
as these technologies are applied to Figure 28: Mobile broadband traffic and capacity evolution
entertainment, gaming and social media.
The AR ecosystem is moving toward
a tipping point when all the key elements
are sufficiently developed to support
services at scale, and this is expected in
the latter part of this decade. Critical
elements in the ecosystem include
attractive devices and applications,
RAN

enabled by computation offload to the

edge cloud, which will need high-quality
mobile connectivity.
 Projected mobile broadband traffic
3 Artic Ericsson Mobility Report | June

Around 2030
3 Artic Ericsson Mobility Report | June

Given the development of the AR market,

In addition, AR drives higher radio In this scenario, the simulation indicated
AR users are likely to demand radio
network resource consumption per bit due AR users would consume (in uplink)
network capacity in the same timeframe.
to its stringent margins for the bounded around three times the bits during the busy
Several scenarios could play out, each with
latency and high reliability necessary to hour relative to a mobile broadband user.
different capacity requirements, above
realize a good user experience. The Each bit would require on average
projected mobile broadband traffic
difference between mobile broadband four times more radio network capacity
demand. Projections of AR glasses’ unit
and AR traffic is especially significant for relative to mobile broadband best-effort.
volume growth through 2030 show a
uplink traffic. This totals 12 times (3x4) more uplink
ramp-up of sales to 20–35 million glasses
Figure 29 illustrates the impact of an AR radio network capacity requirements than a
by 2030 in North America. Assuming a
user, relative to a mobile broadband user, mobile broadband user in this timeframe.
renewal rate of around 30 percent, this
on mobile radio networks during the busy Consuming 12 times the capacity of
could indicate an installed base of 30–50
hours. mobile broadband users over a busy
million AR headsets by 2030 – equal to
Traffic profiles were simulated in a hour will put significant requirements on
10–15 percent smartphone subscription
computation offload scenario for AR the network for a relatively low user
penetration.
(peak traffic speeds of 50 Mbps penetration. With the 10–15 percent
Mobile broadband and AR applications
downlink and 10 Mbps uplink) with a penetration range (taken from the
differ in the type of traffic they generate.
traffic profile of heavy use for 2 hours estimated installed base of AR glasses
AR uptake will drive significant capacity
per day. Bounded latency was set to 20 above), we see a relative increase of
requirements in the radio network,
ms round trip time more than double (2.1–2.7 times) the
depending on the level of cloud
and reliability to 99 percent. The results uplink traffic load compared to a network
computation offload and usage. Relative
were then compared with traffic with only mobile broadband traffic.
to (best-effort) mobile broadband, an
projected for a mobile broadband user The increased traffic load puts additional
AR user will consume more bits due to
by 2030. requirements on network performance to
continuous high-resolution video streams
Capacity requirements in this scenario be able to supply the extra capacity.
as well as edge cloud computation
increase significantly for both uplink and
offload.
downlink, however as uplink is predicted to
be the bottleneck, the results presented
will focus on
Figure 29: Radio network resource consumption uplink.
(busy hour)

Mobile broadband AR

Stringent delay requirements (bounded latency) and limited

packet loss (high reliability) are needed for emerging real-time applications such as AR. This can be

Video resolution and computation offload

Reliability and bounded latency

B

Network resource per bit

Figure 30: AR and mobile broadband traffic and capacity evolution

Capacity evolution Capacity evolution with:

additional mid-band spectrum
new functionalities for AR traffic characteristics
complementing RAN densification

Projected AR traffic demand

Projected mobile broadband traffic

3 Artic Ericsson Mobility Report | June

Around 2030
32 Articles Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2023

There are several solutions to address this:

• New functions to increase capacity Toward 2030, this demand will not
• Additional mid-band spectrum will be
and improve coverage are needed. feasibly be met by the available spectrum
needed for increased capacity.
One example is intelligent steering of and 5G performance evolution on an
Depending on the country, additional
traffic to spectrum bands based on existing site grid. Adding spectrum and
mid bands may be within the 3.3–4.2
both throughput and latency functionality on existing sites would be the
GHz, 4.4–5 GHz and 6.425–7.125 GHz
requirements. Another example is first steps, with network densification as a
frequency ranges. Some of the
optimized scheduling to reduce latency complement where and when needed. In
3.3–4.2 GHz and 4.4–5 GHz
and increase reliability by allowing the long term (2030 and beyond), the
bands have already been licensed
additional retransmissions within a centimetric range 7–15 GHz will be
in parts of the world and there is a
given latency budget. essential to support
device
• RAN densification will help – AR uptake and more advanced use cases.
ecosystem with support for those
however, it is associated with high
bands.
costs and long lead times.
The 6.425–7.125 GHz band is
currently under discussion for IMT
None of these solutions will be sufficient
identification at this year’s ITU
on their own to address the capacity
World
gap toward 2030 in the studied AR
Radiocommunication Conference
scenarios; a combination of all three
2023 (WRC-23) and an ecosystem is
will be needed to satisfy future network
under development, noting that the
demands.
band is already included in 3GPP
Mobile broadband traffic, plus a
standards (3GPP n104). The 6.425–
scenario of AR traffic uptake, combined
7.125 GHz
with an
band is a key opportunity for large-
assumed level of cloud computation
scale harmonization of wide-area
offload indicates significant network load
licensed use and, in many cases, the
demand.
last available mid-band resource.

In 2030 and beyond, 7–15 GHz

will be essential to support
AR uptake and more
advanced use cases.
3 Artic Ericsson Mobility Report | June

Mobile quality of experience:

Network readiness for
new services
The next wave of 5G applications will bring new network
requirement challenges. Communications service providers will have
to apply new models for rating mobile quality of experience (QoE) to
design networks that support performance needs of future applications.

Models to predict the These will rely on a set of data points as

quality of mobile input, with a known impact on the QoE,
Key insights experiences and a calculated overall rating as output.
• Data captured from US Traditional proxy measures for QoE In collaboration with Ookla, Ericsson
networks shows that 5G are generic, and unrelated to a conducted a nationwide data-gathering
substantially improves video specific application and network project in the US during the first quarter
streaming quality compared to combination. of 2023. All data points were uniformly
4G. What users can expect from the captured from smartphones across the
network is typically measured in three three largest service providers’ mobile
• Application developers and
ways: networks, and were used to rate mobile
network planners need a new
• population coverage (percentage QoE with the aforementioned
approach to rate QoE for
with access to a specific cellular approach. The three experiences
emerging mobile services.
access technology (4G, 5G) in low- or studied were video streaming (ranging
• A need to continue
mid-band spectrum) in resolution from 144p to 4K), mobile
improving mobile network
• radio signal strength (measured on gaming and video conferencing. All
performance capabilities
the device and presented as 1–4 these services are mature and expected
to meet the requirements
bars) by customers to be delivered with
of new mobile experiences
• speed tests (user-initiated peak rate excellent quality over a cellular
and rising user
tests of throughput at a given network. The results indicate an ongoing
expectations of QoE will
location during a defined time) need for network performance
The first wave of 5G primarily improvements to deliver a consistent
brought enhanced user experience for These measures indicate network QoE for these types of applications.
existing applications to smartphone fundamentals for users, but have limited General network readiness for delivering
users. New types of applications and value as input for planning networks for good QoE for cloud gaming and extended
use cases are expected in the next more advanced experiences. An alternative reality (XR) applications is still in its infancy.
wave, bringing to networks new method is to calculate the quality of
challenges in delivering sufficient various mobile experiences using Modeling mobile video streaming QoE
mobile QoE to customers. secondary data points retrieved from Video is the dominant traffic type in cellular
Mobile user experience is a function devices and analyzing by: networks, and its use continues to grow.
of both application quality and • uniformly capturing data across different A total of 80 percent of all data traffic in
network service, equipment, measurement and cellular networks is forecast to be video by
quality. Service providers need ways to device providers 2028 (see page 19). Video consumption
rate experiences, and to become known in • applying algorithms and standardized has gradually shifted from broadcast to
the market for delivering a mobile models, where a specific set of data streaming, and mobile video quality
experience consumers and enterprises can points can be measured and correlated evolves toward full-HD, 2K and 4K
rely on. with the QoE for a specific service resolutions.
Ultimately, this will impact how much However, user experience of mobile video
customers are willing to pay for a ITU’s Telecommunication depends on many different measurable
service. Standardization Sector (ITU-T) set out to aspects, such as intrinsic encoding quality
standardize and secure a broad (affected by resolution, frame rate and
anchoring for models to use. The ITU-T codec) and dynamic quality effects
Rec. P.1203 is the world’s first standard (such as time-to-content, rebufferings and
for measuring the QoE resolution adaptation to channel capacity).
of video streaming services for longer
viewing sessions and has been
established for years. Models for
measuring cloud gaming1 and video
telephony2
QoE are under development.
1
3 work Artic
ITU-T item P.BBQCG, www.itu.int/ITU-T/workprog/wp_item.aspx?isn=17809.
Ericsson Mobility Report | June
2
G.CMVTQS, www.itu.int/ITU-T/workprog/wp_item.aspx?isn=17785. Note: Video telephony is not the same as video conferencing,
but still similar to a two-party video conference call.
 3 Artic Ericsson Mobility Report | June

Figure 31: Video streaming quality model

Theoretical maximum of experience quality, def

Pv: Short-term video quality predictor will use VMAF replacing P.1203.1 module
MOS

Excellent4.5–5.0
Media parameter extraction Good3.5–4.5
Pq: Long-term quality predictor module (P.1203.3)
Fair2.5–3.5
Pa: Short-term audio quality predictor module (P.1203.2) MOS Poor1.5–2.5
Video Bad1.0–1.5
stream

Stalling parameter extraction

Video QoE is well-researched and relies

Insights into mobile video • 5G increases video streaming quality
on models that were standardized
streaming QoE compared to 4G and Wi-Fi. The
before 5G was introduced, such as the
When applying the model (Figure proportion of streams with excellent
ITU-T P.1203 standard.3 This includes
31) to mobile video streaming quality increased from 58 percent (4G) to
modules for estimating short-term video
deliveries over commercial networks 72 percent (5G). The QoE gap compared
(P.1203.1) and audio (P.1203.2) quality,
in the US, it was found that: to Wi-Fi decreased from 22 percent to 8
and an integration module (P.1203.3)
• Excellent quality (MOS 4.5–5) percent. 5G has reduced Wi-Fi’s
estimating the final session quality due to
was achieved by 61 percent of previous streaming quality advantage.
adaptation and stalling. The short-term
the mobile video streams
video quality scores are fed into the
measured. Insights into mobile gaming QoE
integration module and the final quality
The measurements varied 44–72 Two-thirds of mobile app revenues come
score is then presented as a single
percent across the 3 large service from mobile games,5 and we are at the
mean opinion score (MOS) ranged 1–5
providers. beginning of the fourth gaming wave
for the whole experience. This is an
The differences between service (after console, PC, and mobile games)
objective model designed to mimic the
providers relate to spectrum used and with cloud gaming increasingly offered
behavior and perception of humans,
network rollout strategies. The premium by service providers. The transition
producing the
resolution samples were limited and from
MOS values that would result from
represented only 12 percent (2K) and 4 mobile app games, studied here, to mobile
running a subjective video quality test
percent (4K) of all measured streams. cloud games will materially change
with a group of individuals in a laboratory
• Only 13 percent of the streams network performance requirements.
environment.
measured were less-than-good (below For mobile games executed in an app6
In this study, Ericsson replaced the
3.5 MOS). Poor radio conditions were on a smartphone or tablet, the QoE
P.1203.1 module with the open source-
the root cause for 40 percent of the depends on latency, packet loss and
based Video Multimethod Fusion Approach
less-than-good experiences, with either jitter. A simple
(VMAF) algorithm, as P.1203.1 does not
poor radio frequency (RF) strength, poor evaluation model was applied to the
support some commonly-used codecs.4
RF quality, or a combination of both. captured data for these parameters to rate
Since the test video is known, and pre-
the QoE:
encoded, VMAF could be used offline to
assess the video
encoding quality for the resolutions Figure 32: Maximum possible MOS for video streaming to smartphones
utilized, while P.1203.3 was used to add
the dynamic effects of time-to-content, Bad Poor Fair Good Excellent
rebufferings and resolution adaptation. 5
The resulting QoE measure (output) from
the model is presented as a single mean
4
opinion score (MOS) in a range of 1–5 for
the whole experience (see Figure 31). This
figure shows the P.1203 architecture, with 3
P.1203.1 exchanged to VMAF.
The model relies on a theoretical 2
maximum value defined by the resolution,
where standard definition (SD) is the 1
lowest possible resolution that gives a
good experience (MOS 3.5–4.5) on a 0
smartphone,
and excellent experience (MOS 4.5–5) QCIF QVGA Ninth HD SD HD Full HD 2K 4K
requires at least full HD (see Figure (144p) (240p) (360p) (480p) (720p) (1080p) (1440p) (2160p)
32).

3
Ericsson, Video QoE, leveraging standards to meet rising user expectations (June 2017).
4
3
GitHub,
Artic
VMAF.
Ericsson Mobility Report | June
5
Data.ai, State of Mobile 2023 (January 11, 2023).
6
No video component is transmitted, only metadata in the uplink and downlink.
35 Articles Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2023

• 57 percent of the mobile gaming

The resolution estimate comes from the modeled service access attempts:
experiences measured were of
available bit rate at the initiation of the • mobile cloud gaming: 40 percent of
excellent quality. Mobile app-based
video conferencing service. The impact of measured throughput and latency
gaming
network delays leverages the ITU-T values meet minimum requirements
is latency-sensitive. However, the
G.107 model, initially defined for voice- • AR: 3–32 percent of measured
differences in latency between service
quality predictions, as users tend to be throughput and latency values
providers was limited, and all 3 Tier-1
more sensitive to audio delays than video meet minimum requirements
providers fall within the 54–58 percent
delays. The key results were:
bracket for an excellent QoE. The shift
• 79 percent of mobile video conferencing The large spread in network readiness
from 4G to 5G increased gaming
experiences (4G) were of excellent values for AR depends on the “flavor” of
sessions with excellent QoE by 6
quality, with both throughput and AR in play, and where in the requirement
percentage points.
latency variables meeting the threshold span each flavor falls. The locations of
• Server locations influence mobile gaming
for excellent quality servers required for remote rendering
QoE due to longer delays. There is a
• 88 percent of mobile video have a high impact on the results for
difference in mobile gaming QoE
conference experiences (5G) were data points collection coupled to latency.
between servers located in the US (82
of excellent quality – a leap As AR flavors, server locations, model
percent providing excellent quality) and
upward by development and data point collection
elsewhere (38 percent providing
9 percentage points from the mature, the initial
excellent quality).
79 percent for 4G spread in network readiness will be
• 5G emerged as the best network, replaced by specific values.
In this case, a simple evaluation model
even 3 points ahead of Wi-Fi, for The difference between the high
was used to rate the QoE. More work is
overall QoE of mobile video percentage (61 percent) of mobile video
needed to develop a deeper
conferencing streaming experiences rated “excellent
understanding of what parameters
quality” and the low percentage for
influence the perceived QoE for mobile
Network readiness for new types meeting the minimum network
gaming.
of mobile experiences requirements of mobile cloud gaming (40
The most significant value of the percent) and AR (3–32 percent)
Insights into mobile video conferencing
approach described in this article will be experiences points to a need for
QoE COVID-19 led to 2D video
for new types of experiences, for which continued 5G network evolution. This will
conferencing being universally adopted in
both application developers and network be necessary to meet a large variety of
home offices. Not only is it here to stay in
planners need new tools to rate QoE. requirements of new types of services, with
the hybrid workplace, but it will evolve
However, QoE models higher demands on
toward immersive 3D communication.
are experience-specific and need to be network performance.
While PCs presently dominate as the
standardized for new types of
platform for video conference calls at work
experiences like cloud gaming and XR. Performance capabilities need
and home, mobile devices are growing in
As part of the analysis, the capabilities further improvements
importance in the workplace and when
of existing networks to meet quality The work to define QoE rating models
commuting. The QoE for mobile video
thresholds on downlink, uplink and for new experiences with high network
conferencing is dependent on video
latency for these types of services were performance requirements is still to be
resolution and round-trip delays. A few
examined. 5G connectivity requirements undertaken. However, the work to define
aspects make mobile video conferencing
vary for mobile cloud gaming and AR use the models and the job of capturing
different to using a fixed network
cases: datapoints for predicting quality for an
connection. The high-end resolutions of 4K
• mobile cloud gaming:7 10 experience can happen in parallel, so that
and 2K are typically not used, and the
Mbps downlink, 5–9 Mbps both models and robust data sets can
usage of Full HD (1080p) and lower
uplink, and 30–75 ms one-way guide network evolution plans before
resolutions vary somewhat between
latency standards are complete. A need to
different video conferencing services.
• AR:8 2–60 Mbps downlink, 2–20 continue improving mobile network
Video conferencing is inherently latency-
Mbps uplink, and 5–50 ms one-way performance capabilities to meet the
sensitive, but material drops in quality do
latency requirements of new mobile experiences,
not occur until after about 100 ms in
and rising user expectation on QoE, will
round-trip delay.
Through modeling of measured downlink grow with uptake of new services.
In anticipation of a standardized
throughput and round-trip delays,
model, we have used the same
network readiness for these types of
resolution base as for video streaming
services were measured as follows, as a
(see Figure 32).
percentage of

7
Xbox Game Pass requirements, Microsoft.
8
”XR and 5G: Extended reality at scale with time-critical communication” (August 24, 2021).

The proportion of “excellent”

quality mobile video streams
increased from
58 percent over 4G to 72 percent over 5G.
7
%
3 Methodology and Ericsson Mobility Report | June

Methodology
Forecast methodology
Mobile subscriptions
Rounding of Subscribers Mobile data Population coverage
figures traffic

Forecast methodology FWA is defined as a connection Mobile network traffic

Ericsson makes forecasts on a regular that provides broadband access Ericsson regularly performs traffic
basis to support internal decisions and through measurements in over 100 live networks
planning, as well as market mobile network enabled customer premises covering all major regions of the world.
communications. The forecast time in the equipment (CPE). This includes both These measurements form a
Mobility Report is six years and this moves indoor (desktop and window-mounted) representative base for calculating
forward one year and outdoor (rooftop and wall-mounted) worldwide total mobile network traffic.
in the November report each year. The CPE. It does not include portable battery- Mobile network data traffic also includes
subscription and traffic forecast baseline based Wi-Fi routers or dongles. traffic generated by FWA services. More
is established using historical data from detailed measurements
various sources, validated with Ericsson Rounding of figures are made in a select number of
internal data, including measurements in As figures are rounded, summing up commercial networks with the purpose
customer networks. Future developments data may result in slight differences of understanding how mobile data
are estimated based on macroeconomic from the actual totals. In tables with key traffic evolves. No subscriber data is
trends, user trends, market maturity and figures, subscriptions have been included in
technological advances. Other sources rounded to these measurements. Please note that the
include industry analyst reports, together the nearest 10th of a million. However, Ericsson Mobility Report data traffic
with internal assumptions and analyses. when used in highlights in the articles, forecast, both global and regional,
Historical data may be revised if the subscriptions are usually expressed in full represents the estimated traffic volume in
underlying data changes – for billions or to one decimal place. Compound all networks over the duration of a month.
example, if service providers report annual growth rate (CAGR) is calculated Traffic (in terms
updated subscription figures. on the underlying, unrounded numbers of throughput) in high-traffic areas will
and is then rounded to the nearest full be much higher than the average traffic.
Mobile subscriptions percentage figure. Traffic volumes are
Mobile subscriptions include all mobile expressed to two significant figures. Population coverage
technologies. Subscriptions are defined Population coverage is estimated using a
by the most advanced technology that Subscribers database of regional population and
the mobile phone and network are capable There is a large difference between the territory distribution, based on population
of. Our mobile subscriptions by numbers of subscriptions and subscribers. density. This is then combined with
technology findings divide subscriptions This is because many subscribers have proprietary data on the installed base of
according to the highest-enabled several subscriptions. Reasons for this radio base stations (RBS), together with
technology they can be used for. LTE (4G) could include users lowering traffic costs by estimated coverage per RBS for each of
subscriptions, in most cases, also include using optimized subscriptions for different six population density categories (from
the possibility for the subscription to types of calls, maximizing coverage metro to wilderness).
access 3G (WCDMA/HSPA) and 2G (GSM or and having different subscriptions for Based on this, the portion of each area
CDMA in some markets) networks. A 5G mobile PCs/tablets and mobile phones. that is covered by a certain technology can
subscription is counted as such when In addition, it takes time before be estimated, as well as the percentage of
associated with a device that supports inactive subscriptions are removed the population it represents. By
New Radio as specified in 3GPP Release from service provider databases. aggregating these areas, world population
15, and connected to a 5G-enabled Consequently, subscription coverage per technology can be calculated.
network. Mobile broadband includes radio penetration can be above 100
access technologies HSPA (3G), LTE (4G), percent, which is the case in many Disclaimer
5G, CDMA2000 EV-DO, TD-SCDMA and countries today. However, in some The content of this document is based
Mobile WiMAX. WCDMA without HSPA developing regions, it is common on a number of theoretical dependencies
and GPRS/EDGE are not included. for several people to share one and assumptions. Ericsson shall not be
subscription, for example via a bound by or liable for any statement,
family- or community-shared representation, undertaking or omission
phone. made in this document. Furthermore,
Ericsson may, at any time, change the
contents of this document at its sole
discretion and shall not be liable for the
consequences of such changes.

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3 Methodology and Ericsson Mobility Report | June
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Glossary
environment are fully interactive with
2CC: Two component carrier GHz: Gigahertz, 109 hertz (unit of each other

2G: 2nd generation mobile frequency) GSA: Global mobile Suppliers

networks (GSM, CDMA 1x)
Association GSM: Global System for
3CC: Three component carrier Mobile Communications

3G: 3rd generation mobile networks GSMA: GSM Association

(WCDMA/HSPA, TD-SCDMA, CDMA
EV-DO, Mobile WiMAX) HSPA: High speed packet access

3GPP: 3rd Generation Partnership Project IoT: Internet of Things

4CC: Four component carrier Kbps: Kilobits per second

4G: 4th generation mobile LTE: Long-Term Evolution

networks (LTE, LTE-A)
MB: Megabyte, 106 bytes
4K: In video, a horizontal display
resolution of approximately 4,000 Mbps: Megabits per second
pixels. A resolution of 3840 × 2160 (4K
UHD) is used in television and consumer MHz: Megahertz, 106 hertz
media. In the movie projection industry, (unit of frequency)
4096 × 2160 (DCI 4K) is dominant
MIMO: Multiple Input Multiple Output
5G: 5th generation mobile is the use of multiple transmitters and
networks (IMT-2020) receivers (multiple antennas) on
wireless devices for improved
AI: Artificial intelligence performance

AR: Augmented reality. An interactive mmWave: Millimeter waves are radio

experience of a real-world environment frequency waves in the extremely high
whereby the objects that reside in the frequency range (30–300GHz) with
real world are “augmented” by wavelengths between 10mm and
computer-generated information 1mm. In a 5G context, millimeter
waves refer to frequencies between
ARPU: Average revenue per user 24 and 71GHz (the two frequency
ranges 26GHz and 28GHz are included
CAGR: Compound annual growth rate in millimeter range by convention)

Cat-M1: A 3GPP standardized low- Mobile broadband: Mobile data service

power wide-area (LPWA) cellular using radio access technologies
technology including 5G, LTE, HSPA, CDMA2000 EV-
for IoT connectivity DO,
Mobile WiMAX and TD-SCDMA
CDMA: Code-division multiple access
Mobile PC: Defined as laptop or
dB: In radio transmission, a decibel is desktop PC devices with built-in cellular
a logarithmic unit that can be used to modem or external USB dongle
sum up total signal gains or losses
from a transmitter to a receiver Mobile router: A device with a cellular
network connection to the internet and
EB: Exabyte, 1018 bytes Wi-Fi or Ethernet connection to one or
several clients (such as PCs or
EN-DC: EUTRA-NR Dual connectivity tablets)

FDD: Frequency division duplex MOCN: Multi-operator core network

FWA: Fixed wireless access MORAN: Multi-operator Radio

Access Network
GB: Gigabyte, 109 bytes
MR: Mixed reality. Immersive
Gbps: Gigabits per second technology in which elements from both
the real world and a virtual
 3 Methodology and Ericsson Mobility Report | June

NB-IoT: A 3GPP standardized low-

power wide-area (LPWA) cellular
technology for IoT connectivity

Net Zero: Defined in ITU standards

as a future state where all emissions
that can be reduced are reduced,
with like-for-like or permanent
removals applied by carbon-removal
technologies to balance the
remaining emissions

NR: New Radio as

defined by 3GPP
Release 15

NR-DC: NR-NR Dual connectivity

NSA 5G: Non-standalone 5G is a 5G

Radio Access Network (RAN) that
operates on a legacy 4G/LTE core

PB: Petabyte, 1015 bytes

RedCap: Reduced

capability SA:

Standalone

Short-range IoT: Segment that

largely consists of devices
connected by unlicensed radio
technologies, with
a typical range of up to 100
meters, such as Wi-Fi,
Bluetooth and Zigbee

Sunsetting: The process of closing

down older mobile technologies

TD-SCDMA: Time division-

synchronous code-division multiple
access

TDD: Time division duplex

VoIP: Voice over IP (Internet Protocol)

VoLTE: Voice over LTE as

defined by GSMA IR.92
specification

VR: Virtual reality

WCDMA: Wideband code-division

multiple access

Wide-area IoT: Segment made

up of devices using cellular
connections
or unlicensed low-power
technologies like Sigfox and LoRa

XR: Extended reality. An umbrella

category for virtual or combined
real/virtual environments, which
includes AR,
VR and MR
4 Key Ericsson Mobility Report | June

Key figures

Global key figures

Forecast CAGR*
Mobile subscriptions 2021 2022 2028 2022–2028 Unit
Worldwide mobile subscriptions 8,200 8,260 9,100 2% million
• Smartphone subscriptions 6,160 6,420 7,740 3% million
• Mobile PC, tablet and mobile
router subscriptions 390 410 660 8% million
• Mobile broadband subscriptions 6,770 7,030 8,490 3% million
• Mobile subscriptions, GSM/EDGE-only 1,290 1,100 440 -14% million
• Mobile subscriptions, WCDMA/HSPA 1,330 1,030 220 -22% million
• Mobile subscriptions, LTE 5,050 5,160 3,800 -5% million
• Mobile subscriptions, 5G 510 950 4,620 30% million
• Fixed wireless access connections 88 107 300 19% million
Fixed broadband connections 1,360 1,450 1,800 4% million
Mobile data traffic
• Data traffic per smartphone 12.2 16 47 20% GB/month
• Data traffic per mobile PC 17 20 30 7% GB/month
• Data traffic per tablet 9.5 11.2 27 16% GB/month

Total data traffic**

Mobile data traffic 69 93 329 23% EB/month
• Smartphones 66 90 320 24% EB/month
• Mobile PCs and routers 0.6 0.8 2.1 17% EB/month
• Tablets 2.1 2.4 6.7 18% EB/month
Fixed wireless access 15.6 24 143 34% EB/month
Total mobile network traffic 84 118 472 26% EB/month
Total fixed data traffic 220 270 600 14% EB/month

Regional key figures Forecast CAGR*

Mobile subscriptions 2021 2022 2028 2022–2028 Unit
North America 400 410 450 2% million
Latin America 700 710 790 2% million
Western Europe 540 540 560 0% million
Central and Eastern Europe 570 570 560 0% million
North East Asia 2,110 2,160 2,270 1% million
China1 1,640 1,680 1,740 1% million
South East Asia and Oceania 1,150 1,140 1,290 2% million
India, Nepal and Bhutan 1,140 1,110 1,230 2% million
Middle East and North Africa 750 730 880 3% million
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)2 74 75 80 1% million
Sub-Saharan Africa 860 900 1,070 3% million

Forecast CAGR*
Smartphone subscriptions 2021 2022 2028 2022–2028 Unit
North America 310 320 340 1% million
Latin America 550 560 670 3% million
Western Europe 400 420 450 1% million
Central and Eastern Europe 380 390 430 2% million
North East Asia 1,900 1,970 2,130 1% million
China1 1,500 1,560 1,650 1% million
South East Asia and Oceania 890 930 1,120 3% million
India, Nepal and Bhutan 800 840 1,140 5% million
Middle East and North Africa 550 560 800 6% million
GCC2 61 63 71 2% million
Sub-Saharan Africa 370 410 690 9% million
 4 Key Ericsson Mobility Report | June

Regional key figures

Forecast CAGR*
LTE subscriptions 2021 2022 2028 2022–2028 Unit
North America 320 230 40 -25% million
Latin America 460 520 360 -6% million
Western Europe 440 430 60 -27% million
Central and Eastern Europe 350 410 330 -4% million
North East Asia 1,590 1,420 630 -13% million
China1 1,200 1,050 480 -12% million
South East Asia and Oceania 560 640 770 3% million
India, Nepal and Bhutan 780 820 500 -8% million
Middle East and North Africa 370 420 520 4% million
GCC2 58 55 7 -29% million
Sub-Saharan Africa 183 270 590 14% million

Forecast CAGR*
5G subscriptions 2021 2022 2028 2022–2028 Unit
North America 55 166 410 16% million
Latin America 3 7 330 N/A million
Western Europe 32 69 490 39% million
Central and Eastern Europe 1 5 230 N/A million
North East Asia 397 637 1,610 17% million
China1 353 560 1,310 15% million
South East Asia and Oceania 9 25 430 N/A million
India, Nepal and Bhutan 0 10 700 N/A million
Middle East and North Africa 11 22 290 N/A million
GCC2 6 13 70 31% million
Sub-Saharan Africa 1 3 140 N/A million
Forecast CAGR*
Data traffic per smartphone 2021 2022 2028 2022–2028 Unit
North America 13 20 58 20% GB/month
Latin America 7.8 11 41 25% GB/month
Western Europe 16 20 56 19% GB/month
Central and Eastern Europe 10.2 14 37 18% GB/month
North East Asia 14 18 54 20% GB/month
China1 15 18 47 17% GB/month
South East Asia and Oceania 10 15 54 24% GB/month
India, Nepal and Bhutan 21 26 62 16% GB/month
Middle East and North Africa 8.7 12 37 20% GB/month
GCC2 22 26 59 15% GB/month
Sub-Saharan Africa 3.3 4.7 19 26% GB/month

Forecast CAGR*
Total mobile data traffic 2021 2022 2028 2022–2028 Unit
North America 4.6 6.7 21 21% EB/month
Latin America 3.8 5.3 24 28% EB/month
Western Europe 6.0 8.0 23 20% EB/month
Central and Eastern Europe 3.1 4.3 12 19% EB/month
North East Asia 23 30 97 22% EB/month
China1 20 26 84 22% EB/month
South East Asia and Oceania 8.3 12.8 55 27% EB/month
India, Nepal and Bhutan 14.1 18 58 22% EB/month
Middle East and North Africa 4.3 6.2 27 27% EB/month
GCC2 1.1 1.3 3.3 17% EB/month
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.08 1.7 11.4 37% EB/month

1
These figures are also included in the figures for North East Asia.
2
These figures are also included in the figures for Middle East and North Africa.

* CAGR is calculated on unrounded figures.

** Figures are rounded (see methodology) and therefore summing up of rounded data may result in slight differences from the actual total.
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