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https://www.edge.org/response-detail/10314
Printed On Fri September 15th 2023
2011 : WHAT SCIENTIFIC CONCEPT
WOULD IMPROVE EVERYBODY'S
COGNITIVE TOOLKIT?
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Contributors [ 167 ] | View All Responses [ 166 ]
Carlo Rovelli
Theoretical Physicist; Aix-Marseille University, in the Centre de Physique
Théorique, Marseille, France; Author, Helgoland; There Are Places in the
World Where Rules Are Less Important Than Kindness
The Uselessness of Certainty
There is a widely used notion that does plenty of damage: the notion of "scientifically
proven". Nearly an oxymoron. The very foundation of science is to keep the door open to
doubt. Precisely because we keep questioning everything, especially our own premises, we
are always ready to improve our knowledge. Therefore a good scientist is never 'certain'.
Lack of certainty is precisely what makes conclusions more reliable than the conclusions
of those who are certain: because the good scientist will be ready to shift to a different
point of view if better elements of evidence, or novel arguments emerge. Therefore
certainty is not only something of no use, but is in fact damaging, if we value reliability.
Failure to appreciate the value of the lack of certainty is at the origin of much silliness in
our society. Are we sure that the Earth is going to keep heating up, if we do not do
anything? Are we sure of the details of the current theory of evolution? Are we sure that
modern medicine is always a better strategy than traditional ones? No we are not, in none
of these cases. But if from this lack of certainty we jump to the conviction that we better
not care about global heating, that there is no evolution and the world was created six
thousand years ago, or that traditional medicine must be more effective that the modern
medicine, well, we are simply stupid. Still, many people do these silly inferences. Because
the lack of certainty is perceived as a sign of weakness, instead of being what it is: the
first source of our knowledge.
Every knowledge, even the most solid, carries a margin of uncertainty. (I am very sure
about my own name ... but what if I just hit my head and got momentarily confused?)
Knowledge itself is probabilistic in nature, a notion emphasized by some currents of
philosophical pragmatism. Better understanding of the meaning of probability, and
especially realizing that we never have, nor need, 'scientifically proven' facts, but only a
sufficiently high degree of probability, in order to take decisions and act, would improve
everybody' conceptual toolkit.
Return to Table of Contents
2018 : WHAT IS THE LAST QUESTION?
2017 : WHAT
SCIENTIFIC TERM
OR CONCEPT
OUGHT TO BE
MORE WIDELY
KNOWN?
2016 : WHAT DO
YOU CONSIDER
THE MOST
INTERESTING
RECENT
[SCIENTIFIC]
NEWS? WHAT
MAKES IT
IMPORTANT?
2015 : WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT MACHINES THAT THINK?
2014 : WHAT SCIENTIFIC IDEA IS READY FOR RETIREMENT?
2013 : WHAT *SHOULD* WE BE WORRIED ABOUT?
2012 : WHAT IS YOUR FAVORITE DEEP, ELEGANT, OR BEAUTIFUL
EXPLANATION?
2011 : WHAT SCIENTIFIC CONCEPT WOULD IMPROVE
EVERYBODY'S COGNITIVE TOOLKIT?
2010 : HOW IS THE INTERNET CHANGING THE WAY YOU THINK?
2009 : WHAT WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING?
2008 : WHAT HAVE YOU CHANGED YOUR MIND ABOUT? WHY?
2007 : WHAT ARE YOU OPTIMISTIC ABOUT?
2006 : WHAT IS YOUR DANGEROUS IDEA?
2005 : WHAT DO YOU BELIEVE IS TRUE EVEN THOUGH YOU
CANNOT PROVE IT?
2004 : WHAT'S YOUR LAW?
2003 : WHAT ARE THE PRESSING SCIENTIFIC ISSUES FOR THE NATION AND THE
WORLD, AND WHAT IS YOUR ADVICE ON HOW I CAN BEGIN TO DEAL WITH
THEM? - GWB
2002 : WHAT IS YOUR QUESTION? ... WHY?
2001 : WHAT NOW?
2001 : WHAT QUESTIONS HAVE DISAPPEARED?
2000 : WHAT IS TODAY'S MOST IMPORTANT UNREPORTED STORY?
1999 : WHAT IS THE MOST
IMPORTANT INVENTION IN
THE PAST TWO THOUSAND
YEARS?
1998 : WHAT QUESTIONS ARE YOU ASKING YOURSELF?
John Brockman, Editor and Publisher
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