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Chapter 4

1) Probability is a numerical value between 0 and 1 that measures the likelihood of an event occurring, based on the possible outcomes of an experiment. 2) An experiment is a process with uncertain outcomes, while an event is any subset of outcomes from the sample space of all possible results. 3) Classical, empirical, and subjective probabilities can be used to calculate the likelihood of events based on logical analysis, observed frequencies, or personal judgment.

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Cruzzy Kait
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59 views

Chapter 4

1) Probability is a numerical value between 0 and 1 that measures the likelihood of an event occurring, based on the possible outcomes of an experiment. 2) An experiment is a process with uncertain outcomes, while an event is any subset of outcomes from the sample space of all possible results. 3) Classical, empirical, and subjective probabilities can be used to calculate the likelihood of events based on logical analysis, observed frequencies, or personal judgment.

Uploaded by

Cruzzy Kait
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Chapter 4 – Introduction to Probability in the sample space.

But the events are


mutually exclusive.
Probability - is a numerical value that measures the  Pass and fail are exhaustive and mutually
likelihood that an event occurs. exclusive.
 Between zero (0) and one (1) We can define events based on one or more outcomes
 0 → impossible event that never occurs of the experiment and also combine events to form new
 1 → a definite event that always occurs events.

Experiment - is a process that leads to one of several Venn Diagram


possible outcomes.
 Sample space S with a rectangle
 Actual outcome is not known with certainty  Two circles to represent the events A and B
before the experiment begins
 Diversity of outcomes is due to uncertainty Union of two events

Example: rolling a fair die  Denoted 𝐴∪𝐵


 All outcomes in A or B (or both)
Sample space of an experiment  The portion in the Venn diagram that is
included in either A or B
 Denoted by 𝑆
 Contains all possible outcomes of the
experiment

Examples:

 Letter grades in a course: 𝑆={𝐴,𝐵,𝐶,𝐷,𝐹}


 Passing a course or not: 𝑆={𝑃, 𝐹}

Event - is any subset of outcomes of the experiment.


Intersection of two events
 Simple event if it contains a single outcome
 May contain several outcomes  Denoted 𝐴∩𝐵
 All outcomes in A and B
Example: a passing grade, 𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑠={𝐴,𝐵,𝐶,𝐷}  The portion in the Venn diagram that is
Exhaustive events included in both A and B, the overlap

 All possible outcomes of an experiment belong


to the events
 Include all outcomes in the sample space

Mutually exclusive events

 They do not share any common outcomes


 The occurrence of one event precludes the
occurrence of others

Examples:

 Grades of A and B are not exhaustive events


because they do not include all feasible grades
Complement of an event A Example: frequency distribution for the ages of the
richest 400 Americans.
 Denoted 𝐴^𝑐
 All outcomes in the sample space S that are not
in A
 The portion in the Venn diagram that is
everything in S that is not included in A

 What is the probability that the individual is at


least 50 but less than 60?
𝑃(𝐶)=67/400= 0.1675
 Follows from one of the defining properties of  What is the probability that the individual is
probability: 𝑃(𝐴 )+𝑃(𝐴^𝑐 )=1 younger than 60?
 Rearrange: 𝑃(𝐴^𝑐 )=1−𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐴∪𝐵∪𝐶)=(13+24+67)/400= 0.26
 What is the probability that the individual is at
Example: 37% of female open house attendees will least 80?
purchase a membership. What is the probability that a 𝑃(𝐹∪𝐺)=(55+11)/400= 0.17
randomly selected female will not purchase a
membership? Classical probability – Is based on logical analysis rather
than observation.
 Define A as the event that a randomly selected
female will purchase a membership.  A narrow range of well-defined problems,
 𝑃(𝐴)= 0.37 games of chance
 𝑃(𝐴^𝑐 )=1−𝑃(𝐴)=1−0.37= 0.63  Based on assumptions that all the outcomes are
equally likely
3 types of Probabilities:  Computed as number of outcomes belonging to
an event divided by total number of outcomes
 Subjective: calculated by drawing on personal
and subjective judgment According to the law of large numbers, the empirical
 Empirical: calculated as a relative frequency of probability approaches the classical probability if the
occurrence experiment is run a very large number of times.
 Classical: based on logical analysis
Example: heads on a coin
Empirical and classical probabilities do not vary, they
are often grouped as objective probabilities.  Flip a coin 10 times, heads may not show up 5
times
Empirical probability – Is calculated as a relative  Flip a coin a large number of times, heads will
frequency of occurrence. show up around half of the time

 Referencing data based on observation


 Must be repeated a large number of times to be
accurate
Contingency Tables & Probabilities Bayes’ Theorem – is a procedure for updating
probabilities based on new information; it uses the total
Contingency Table – is useful when examining the probability rule.
relationship between two categorical variables.
 The original probability is an unconditional
 It shows the frequencies for two categorical probability called a prior probability, in the
variables, x and y. sense that it reflects only what we know before
 Each cell represents a mutually exclusive the arrival of new information.
combination of the pair of x and y values.  On the basis of new information, we update the
 We can estimate an empirical probability by prior probability to arrive at a conditional
calculating the relative frequency to the probability called a posterior probability.
occurrence of the event.  The posterior probability 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) can be found
Example: enrollment and age group using the information on the prior probability
𝑃(𝐵) along with conditional probabilities as

 We can also use the below table to help solve


 Let E denote the event of enrolling in the fitness
the problem systematically.
center.
 Let O denote the event of being over 50 years Example:
old.

What is the probability that a randomly selected


attendee enrolls in the fitness center?

 𝑃(𝐸)=140/400= 0.35

What is the probability that a randomly selected


attendee is over 50 years old?

 𝑃(𝑂)=132/400= 0.33

What is the probability that a randomly selected


attendee enrolls in the fitness center and is over 50
years old?

 𝑃(𝐸∩𝑂)= 44/400=0.11

What is the probability that an attendee enrolls in the


fitness center, given the attendee is over 50 years old?

 𝑃(𝐸│𝑂)=44/132=0.33
 𝑃(𝐸│𝑂)=(𝑃(𝐸∩𝑂))/(𝑃(𝑂))=0.11/0.33=0.33

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