Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd.

China Automotive
Low Carbon Action
Plan (2022)
Low Carbon Development Strategy and
Transformation Path for Carbon Neutral
Automotive
China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022)
Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd.

China Automotive Low

Carbon Action Plan (2022)
Low Carbon Development Strategy
and Transformation Path for Carbon Neutral
Automotive

CATARC-ADC
Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd.
Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd.
Tianjin, China

ISBN 978-981-19-7501-1 ISBN 978-981-19-7502-8 (eBook)

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7502-8

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Editorial Board

Director of the Editorial Board

Yi Feng

Deputy Directors of the Editorial Board

Peng Zhang
Dongchang Zhao
Shujie Xu
Mingnan Zhao

Executive Director of the Editorial Board

Xin Sun

Members of the Editorial Board

Achim Teuber
Amir F. N. Abdul-Manan
Bing Qian
Bo Wu
Changsu Song
Changxing Ji
Changyou Xia
Chunhui Liu
Cuimei Ma
Dahai Meng
Deqing Guo
Guoqiang Xu
Hongjie Zhang
Huanran Liu
Hui Guo
Jiaang Li
Jianxin Li

v
vi Editorial Board

Jiaxiang Ren
Jin Zhu
Jing Liu
Jinlong Wu
Kefan Mo
Kun Chen
Li Pan
Lina Shi
Linfeng Lu
Man Luo
Matthias Ballweg
Muxin Liu
Peng Han
Ping Fan
Qiuping Li
Rui Su
Ruoxin Wang
Shaoliang Zhong
Shuwen Liu
Ting Zhang
Tongzhu Zhang
Wei Chang
Xi Liang
Xiaoling Zhang
Xingyu Xue
Xinzhu Zheng
Yan Zhang
Yifei Kang
Yinghao Liu
Yue Ren
Yuping Zhang
Zhen Wang
Zhenlu Lei
Zhipeng Sun
Advisory Board

Members of the Advisory Board

Aimin Ma
Fuqiang Yang
Guibin Lin
Jianhua Pan
Jiannan Wang
Junfeng Li
Kebin He
Qimin Chai
Qingchen Chao
Chunxiu Tian
Fengchang Wu
Xiliang Zhang
Yonghong Li
Zheng Li

vii
Foreword

The greenhouse gas emission from human activities, as proved by tremendous scien-
tific evidences, is an important cause for the current global climate warming, espe-
cially since the industrial revolution. In view of this, the Paris Agreement came
into being, which clearly stipulates to hold the global average temperature rise from
the level before the industrial revolution to below 2 °C and even below 1.5 °C. In
order to achieve such temperature control goal, all signatories shall, on the basis
of equality, achieve a balance between the anthropogenic GHG emission and the
sink and removal (i.e., carbon neutrality) during the second half of the century. On
September 22, 2020, President Xi Jinping announced that China would strive to hit
peak emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
The automotive industry, as the pillar industry of China’s national economy, shows
important carbon emission characteristics such as rapid growth of total carbon emis-
sions and strong driving force to the whole industry chain. The adoption of 30/60
goals (i.e., achieving peak CO2 emissions by 2030 and hitting carbon neutrality by
2060) meets the actual need of China to actively participate in international climate
governance and demonstrate our sense of responsibility as a major country and also
creates a big opportunity for the green, low-carbon, and high-quality transforma-
tion and upgrading of the automotive industry. The automotive industry should lead
other industries in China to realize net zero carbon emission and pull or push the
decarbonization of upstream and downstream industry chains with suitable path-
ways selected, enabling China’s independent automotive brands to grow from big
automotive brands to strong automotive brands.
The “14th Five-Year Plan” period is a critical strategic period for the green and
low-carbon transformation and upgrading of the automotive industry. In 2021, China
became the world’s largest automobile producer and consumer with a vehicle popula-
tion exceeded 300 million. China’s automotive industry has been under the transfor-
mation from high-speed growth to high-quality development, and its carbon emission
reduction is crucial to the successful achievement of the carbon peak goal. While
actively promoting green and low-carbon development, the automotive industry is
also facing some opportunities and challenges, for example, what carbon reduction
paths are available for passenger vehicle enterprises to choose? At what stage should

ix
x Foreword

the path be switched? What is the effect of transformation? How can commercial
vehicle enterprises formulate market-oriented strategies as well as carbon emission
reduction goals and paths? How can the automotive industry become an outstanding
practitioner of the “30/60” goals?
In order to promote the carbon emission reduction of the automotive industry,
Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as CATARC-ADC)
has been devoted in the on automotive carbon emission management for many
years. Since 2018, CATARC-ADC has established the World Automotive Life Cycle
Assessment Working Group (WALCA), and initiated the China Automobile Low
Carbon Action Plan (CALCP). Since then, it has accounted for and released the
research results on the life cycle carbon emissions of more than 15,000 passenger
vehicle models for five consecutive years.
In 2022, CATARC-ADC carried out a study on China Automobile Low Carbon
Action Plan (2022) together with 20 research institutes at home and abroad. This
study first, based on the China Automotive Life Cycle Assessment Model (CALCM),
accounts for the life cycle carbon emission of single vehicle, enterprise, and fleet of
passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles sold in China in 2021 and analyzes and
publicizes the current life cycle carbon emission of China’s automobile enterprises
and products; secondly, with carbon neutrality of the automotive industry as focus,
puts forward from different perspectives ten transition paths, including clean elec-
tricity; vehicle electrification; fuel decarbonization; low-carbon material; produc-
tion digitalization; transportation intelligence; shared mobility; resource recycling;
carbon capture, utilization and storage; and product ecologicalization, sets up three
scenarios namely reference scenario, low-carbon scenario, and enhanced low-carbon
scenario, and then fully discusses the carbon emission reduction potential of different
paths under these scenarios; finally, based on the research results and the challenges
facing the automotive industry at home and abroad under the carbon peak and carbon
neutrality goals, points out policy measures and strategic suggestions for the low-
carbon development of China’s automotive industry, with a view to supporting the
formulation of national carbon emission policies, promoting the R&D and appli-
cation of low-carbon technologies, leading the automotive industry to achieve the
carbon neutrality goal, and promoting the higher quality, more efficient, and more
sustainable development of automotive industry.
Yi Feng is the director of the Editorial Board of this book, and Peng Zhang,
Dongchang Zhao, Shujie Xu, and Mingnan Zhao are the deputy directors of the
Editorial Board. Xin Sun, the executive director of the Editorial Board, is responsible
for the determination of the overall idea and key points of the book, the revision as
well as the coordination and organization, and Jinlong Wu is responsible for the final
compilation and edit. Chapter 1 was drafted by Hongjie Zhang; Chap. 2 by Hongjie
Zhang and Jianxin Li; Chap. 3 by Jiaang Li, Bing Qian, Changxing Ji, Huanran Liu,
and Jianxin Li; Chap. 4 by Jinlong Wu, Cuimei Ma, Lina Shi, Li Pan, Yifei Kang,
Dahai Meng, Xingyu Xue, Amir F.N. Abdul-Manan, Shaoliang Zhong, Yinghao Liu,
Jiaxiang Ren, Bo Wu, Jun Gu, Jin Zhu, Kefan Mo, Hui Guo, Ruoxin Wang, Jing Liu,
Xiaoling Zhang, Peng Han, Kun Chen, Xinzhu Zheng, Yue Ren, Yuping Zhang,
Foreword xi

Matthias Ballweg, Achim Teuber, Qiuping Li, Xi Liang, Muxin Liu, Changyou Xia,
Changsu Song, and Zhen Wang; Chap. 5 by Zhenlu Lei and Jianxin Li; Chap. 6 by
Linfeng Lu; and Chap. 7 by Tongzhu Zhang, Linfeng Lu, and Hongjie Zhang.

May 2022 Editorial Board

Preface

In 2022, all countries around the world are still suffering from the profound impact of
the COVID-19 pandemic, especially the impact on the industrial structure, economic
policies, public health, and people’s lives. Just like the coronavirus pandemic, climate
change is also a major and urgent global challenge facing humankind. We can observe
that during the past decades, more frequent extreme climate events are increasingly
threatening the health and survival of organisms, and in view of this, combating
climate change is the most significant and urgent problem facing humanity today.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under the United Nations
pointed out that climate change is a real challenge faced by all countries in the world,
and as the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) from human activities are driving
the warming of global climate at an unprecedented rate, it is urgent to take actions to
slow down and adapt to the climate change. In 2015, nearly 200 countries and regions
around the world reached the Paris Agreement on climate change, jointly committed
to peaking the global GHG emissions as soon as possible and achieving zero GHG
emissions during the second half of this century. On the 26th UN Climate Change
Conference (COP26) held in Glasgow in 2021, participants agreed that global climate
change is no longer a future challenge, but is already an immediate threat.
In order to achieve the goals set in the Paris Agreement and actively counter
the climate crisis, major countries have formulated or are formulating their own
medium/long-term low-carbon development strategies and have strengthened their
actions in all aspects to promote the transformation to a green and low-carbon
economy. China, as a contracting party of the Paris Agreement, announced in
September 2020 to the world that it would strive to peak the carbon dioxide (CO2 )
emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. As of October 2021, 143
signatories to the Paris Agreement have updated their national determined contri-
butions (NDC), which account for 94.1% of the global total carbon emissions; 132
countries, which account for 88% of the global total carbon emissions, 90% of the
global GDP, and 85% of the global human population, have announced their carbon
neutrality goals.
With the aggravated climate change and the increasing shortage of global energies
and resources, low-carbon economy has become the general trend of international

xiii
xiv Preface

trade. Since the 1990s, China has been the destination of the fourth international
industrial transfer, which together with the development of export-oriented economy
in recent decades is believed by some people being the most direct and chief cause
for the huge carbon emissions in China.
After entering the twenty-first century, China has saw rapid development in
economy and society, and accordingly, energy consumption has increased substan-
tially, with the consumption of standard coal increasing from 2.3 billion tons in 2004
to 4.98 billion tons in 2020. In addition, China’s energy structure has been dominated
by fossil energies such as coal for a long term, causing serious ecological problems
such as air pollution as well as continuously increasing total CO2 emissions in the
energy sector, about 40% of which are produced by the power industry, whose annual
coal consumption accounts for about 50% of the total coal consumption in China.
We should note that, alongside the potential, there are huge challenges in China’s
low-carbon development. First, the manufacturing sector, with its high energy and
material consumption and low added-value rate, is still in the middle and low end of
the international industrial value chain, posing daunting tasks of economic structural
adjustment and industrial upgrading. Second, coal consumption still accounts for
a high proportion of energy use. CO2 emissions per unit of energy consumption
are about 30% larger than the world average, making the task of energy structural
optimization formidable. Third, energy consumption per unit of GDP is still high at
1.5 times the world average and 2–3 times that of developed countries. Establishment
of a green and low-carbon economic system is arduous work.
Addressing climate change is the common mission of humankind and meets
the domestic demand for sustainable development. General Secretary Xi Jinping
has repeatedly stressed that China should participate in the course of addressing
climate change actively instead of passively. In 2020, China’s per capita CO2 emis-
sions dropped by 48.4% from the 2005 level, higher than the target of 40–45%
that China has promised to the international community, and accompanying this,
China’s economic aggregate exceeded 100 trillion yuan, the per capita GDP exceeded
10,000 USD for the second year, and the per capita disposable income of rural
residents in poor areas increased by 5.6%–12588 yuan, with 5.51 million of poor
rural people lifted out of poverty. All the data show that policies and actions for
addressing climate change will not hinder economic development, but will achieve
the co-benefits of cultivating new industries and markets, boosting employment, and
improving people’s livelihood. Therefore, we need to maintain strategic resolve and
insist on a green and low-carbon development philosophy to promote and lead the
climate governance and the transformation to green and low-carbon economy.
At present, all sectors and industries in China, of course including automotive
industry, have been accelerating their low-carbon transformation and innovation as
a response to the global trend. All the big automobile countries in the world have
strengthened their strategic planning and policy supports for green and low-carbon
development to promote industrial upgrading, maintain the stability of the industrial
chain and supply chain, and improve the level of technological innovation, with a
final aim to seizing the first chance of competition in future. Since the adoption
of the reform and opening-up policy, China’s automotive industry has been a very
Preface xv

important sector for investment and investment attraction in China, and especially
after China’s accession to WTO, China’s automotive industry has embraced a rapid
development. Even when the financial crisis broken out globally, the vehicle sales
in Chinese market were still growing against the trend. So far, China has become
the largest automobile market in the world, and it has also made a lot of contribu-
tions to the low-carbon and green transformation, including significantly improving
production efficiency, continuously increasing the application of recyclable mate-
rials, developing and popularizing small-displacement vehicles, rapidly improving
fuel economy, promoting the development of electric vehicles and fuel cell electric
vehicles, and developing the used car trading market and automobile recycling busi-
ness, among which, the most important action is to improve fuel economy, implement
stricter automobile exhaust emission standards, and continue to promote the electri-
fication of vehicles. General Secretary Xi Jinping declared that the development of
new energy vehicles is the only way for China to transform from a big automobile
country into a powerful automobile country.
For China, there are only 30 years left to achieve the emission reduction rate that
the developed countries are far from achieving. That is to say, China has to ensure
an average annual emission reduction rate of 9% from 2030 to 2060. According to
the statistics of the World Resources Institute (WRI), the carbon emissions from
power generation and heating sector, manufacturing and construction sector, and
transport sector accounted for more than 72% of the total carbon emissions in China,
and the automotive industry is not only closely related to those three sectors and
our national economic life, but also one of our pillar industries. At present, China’s
annual vehicle output has exceeded 20 million, and the carbon emissions from the
automotive industry accounted for about 8% of the total carbon emissions in China.
To sum up, China’s automotive industry is an indispensable part for accelerating
“carbon neutrality” as well as energy conservation and emission reduction and is
obliged to be a promoter of green and low-carbon transformation, which will not
only accelerate the pace of new energy transformation of the automotive industry,
but also brings for it unprecedented challenges and opportunities.
With the introduction of carbon neutrality, China’s automotive industry faces
a series of challenges. First, the automotive industry is large in scale and highly
concerned by the whole society. As an integrated industry, its development coexists
with the pressure of carbon emissions, and considering that the automotive industry
has a very long industry chain, its carbon emission reduction is of representative
significance; second, the automotive industry faces rapid change in international
economic and trade mechanism and the market competition environment; third, the
automotive industry, in order to achieve the carbon control goals, is required to
cooperate with upstream industries (such as metallurgy industry, electronics industry,
mechanical industry, and chemical industry) and downstream industries (such as
logistics industry, transportation industry, leasing industry, and others), so as to form
a huge system related to the national economy and the people’s livelihood which
will play a crucial spillover effect on the management of GHG emissions of vehicle.
Currently under the “CASE” (Connected, Autonomous, Shared, Electric) concept,
a vehicle has already been upgraded from a machine consisting of sofa and four
xvi Preface

wheels into a machine consisting of a mobile computer and a mobile storage device,
and thus for the carbon emission control of vehicles, we should look at and also look
beyond the automotive industry. As for the upstream energy problem, without the
transformation of energy industry, it is basically impossible for the manufacturing
industry to achieve low-carbon transformation; then as for the problems involved in
the whole industry chain and the whole life cycle, carbon emission reduction shall
be extended to the whole life cycle from manufacturing to disposal and also to all
supply chains, that is to say, carbon emission reduction shall be implemented not
only in manufacturing, production, and logistics of product, but also in the product
use.
This book, based on the life cycle concept and with the whole automotive industry
chain as focus, collects comprehensive and accurate data as supporting materials
for demonstration and makes thought-provoking conclusions, providing a signifi-
cant reference for the way to strengthen the upstream and downstream linkage and
system integration of carbon neutrality solutions in the automotive industry chain
and revealing the development direction of the carbon peak and carbon neutrality
course of China’s automotive industry. This study will play an important role in
the development of automotive industry and its upstream and downstream indus-
tries, provide scientific basis for the analysis of carbon emission reduction pathways
and also decision-making basis for the formulation of carbon neutrality strategies
for China’s automotive industry, stimulate the green, low-carbon, and high-quality
development of China’s automotive industry, and also show to the world how brilliant
our China is.

Tianjin, China Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd.

Contents

1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 Impact of Global Climate Change on Automotive Industry . . . . . . . 1
1.1.1 Status-Quo and Trend of Global Climate Change . . . . . . . . 1
1.1.2 Status-Quo of GHG Emissions from China’s
Automotive Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.1.3 Impact of Climate Change on China’s Automotive
Industry Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.1.4 Impact of Climate Change on the Import and Export
of China’s Automotive Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.2 Consensus on Carbon Neutrality in the Automotive Industry
and Countermeasures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.3 Key Issues in China’s Automotive Industry Chain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.4 Research Framework and Overall Idea of this Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles . . . . . . . 15
2.1 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Model for Vehicles . . . . . 15
2.1.1 Determination of Purpose and Scope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2.1.2 Vehicle Inventory Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
2.2 Accounting Method for Life Cycle Carbon Emissions
of Single Vehicle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
2.2.1 Vehicle Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Methods . . . . 20
2.2.2 Fuel Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method . . . . . . . . 27
2.2.3 Life Cycle Carbon Emissions Per Unit Mileage . . . . . . . . . 29
2.3 Accounting Method for Enterprise Average Life Cycle
Carbon Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
2.4 Fleet Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.4.1 Accounting Method for Life Cycle Carbon
Emissions of Passenger Vehicle Fleet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

xvii
xviii Contents

2.4.2 Accounting Method for Life Cycle Carbon

Emissions of Commercial Vehicle Fleet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles
of China in 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon
Emissions of Passenger Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
3.1.1 Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions
of Passenger Vehicles of Different Fuel Types . . . . . . . . . . . 39
3.1.2 Accounting Results for Life Cycle Carbon Emission
of Passenger Vehicles at Different Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
3.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon
Emissions for Commercial Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
3.2.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle
Carbon Emission of Light-Duty Trucks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
3.2.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle
Carbon Emissions of Heavy-Duty Trucks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
3.2.3 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle
Carbon Emission of Buses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
3.3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions
of Enterprises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
3.3.1 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions
of Passenger Vehicle Enterprises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
3.4 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Fleets . . . . . . . 101
3.4.1 Research on Life Cycle Carbon Emissions
of Passenger Vehicle Fleet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
3.4.2 Research on Life Cycle Carbon Emissions
of Commercial Vehicle Fleet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways
of Automotive Industry for Carbon Neutrality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
4.1 Overall Transformation Pathway Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
4.1.1 Transformation Pathways . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
4.1.2 Scenario Setting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
4.2.1 Path 1: Clean Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
4.2.2 Path 2: Vehicle Electrification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
4.2.3 Path 3: Mitigating GHG Emissions
of Petroleum-Based Transport Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
4.2.4 Path 4: Low-Carbon Material . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
4.2.5 Path 5: Production Digitalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
4.2.6 Path 6: Transportation Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
4.2.7 Path 7: Shared Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
4.2.8 Path 8: Resource Recycling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
4.2.9 Path 9: Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage . . . . . . . . . 207
Contents xix

4.2.10 Path 10: Ecological Carbon Sink . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216
5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential
of the Automotive Industry in the Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223
5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect
of a Vehicle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223
5.1.1 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effects
of Passenger Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224
5.1.2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effects
of Commercial Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
5.1.3 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259
5.2 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect
of Fleets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262
5.2.1 Forecast of Vehicle Ownership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262
5.2.2 Energy Demand Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 264
5.2.3 Forecast of Carbon Emission Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267
5.2.4 Emission Reduction Effect Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277
5.2.5 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 284
6 Opportunities for the Automotive Industry Under the Carbon
Peak and Carbon Neutrality Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287
6.1 More Attention to Be Paid to Domestic Carbon Emission
Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287
6.1.1 Existing Carbon Emission Management Policies
to Be Perfected . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 288
6.1.2 Speeding Up Construction of Carbon Emission
Standard System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291
6.1.3 Supply Chain Carbon Data Integrity to Be Improved . . . . . 293
6.1.4 Information Disclosure Mechanism in Further
Progress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294
6.2 Challenges and Opportunities Coexisting in International
Competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295
6.2.1 Tighter Carbon Footprint Limits for Automobile
Products and Key Parts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 296
6.2.2 Gradual Rise in Compliance Costs of Automobile
Products and Parts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298
6.2.3 Necessary to Establish an Independent Carbon
Footprint Disclosure Power of China’s Automobile
Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300
xx Contents

7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon

Development of Automotive Industry for Carbon Neutrality . . . . . . . . 303
7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development
of the Automotive Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303
7.1.1 Construction of Standard System for Low-Carbon
Development of the Automotive Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303
7.1.2 Policy Support for Low-Carbon Development
of the Automotive Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 328
7.2 Strategic Points for Low-Carbon Development
of the Automotive Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342
7.2.1 Speeding Up the Process of Decarbonization
of the Power Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342
7.2.2 Steady and Sound Promotion of the Development
of Vehicle Electrification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 343
7.2.3 Speeding Up the Construction of Resource
Recycling System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345
7.2.4 Promotion of the Use of Hydrogen Fuel and Other
Low-Carbon Alternative Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 346
7.2.5 Advocating New Modes of Low-Carbon Mobility
for Residents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347
7.2.6 Speeding Up the Research and Development
of Negative Carbon Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 348
7.3 Summary and Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 349
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 349

Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 351
Chapter 1
Overview

1.1 Impact of Global Climate Change on Automotive

Industry

1.1.1 Status-Quo and Trend of Global Climate Change

According to the Sixth Assessment Report of IPCC [1], the global temperature has
increased significantly since industrialization. As shown in Fig. 1.1, the past decade,
namely 2011–2020, is the hottest decade on record, with the global surface temper-
ature increased by 1.09 °C (0.95–1.2 °C) compared with 1850–1900, and in 2020
which is one of the three hottest years on record [2], when the global average surface
temperature increased by 1.2 ± 0.1 °C compared with that before industrialization
(1980–1900).
IPCC, by simulating the human and natural factors to the global temperature
changes in the past, demonstrated that human activities play an absolutely dominant
role in climate warming. As illustrated in Fig. 1.2 [3], from 1980 to 2019, CO2
emissions showed an overall rising trend only with slight drop in some years, and
the average annual rise was high up to about 0.45Gt, especially in 2010 when the
annual rise was the highest, i.e.1.89Gt. In 2020, CO2 emissions declined temporarily
due to the impact of COVID-19, but in 2021, due to the economic recovery, changes
in the energy market, adverse weather and other factors, CO2 emissions increased
significantly by 6% from the 2020 level to about 2.04Gt, which marks the highest
increase on record, and is even higher than the level in 2019 when the pandemic did
not break out, completely offsetting the impact of emission reduction caused by the
epidemic.
Until now, 193 countries or regions have signed the Paris Agreement and submitted
the first national determined contributions (NDCs), of which 13 signatories have
submitted the second NDCs. But, there is still a big gap between the NDC targets
and action plans proposed by various countries in pursuit of the Paris Agreement and

© China Machine Press 2023 1

Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd. et al.,
China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022),
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7502-8_1
2 1 Overview

Fig. 1.1 Global surface temperature and annual change

Fig. 1.2 Annual changes in carbon emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes
from 1980 to 2021

the temperature control target of 2 °C, and by 2030, there will be an annual emission
reduction gap of 12–15 billion tCO2 e [4]. Based on this, it can be calculated that,
by the end of the twenty-first century, the global median temperature rise will reach
2.7 °C, the probability of global temperature rise lower than 2 °C is less than 5%,
and the probability of global temperature rise higher than 3 °C is greater than 25%
[5]. If GHG emissions continue to rise in the future, the climate warming trend
will further intensify. Continuous global temperature rise will lead to more frequent
occurrence of serious extreme climate events, including cold wave, heat wave, flood,
drought, wildfire, storm, etc. Therefore, it is urgent for all countries to put forward
1.1 Impact of Global Climate Change on Automotive Industry 3

and implement emission reduction targets and further strengthen climate actions.
The report of the Working Group III in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report shows
that [6], the control of global temperature rise is critical in the next few years. As
described by the assessment scenario proposed by the Working Group III, if the
global warming is to be controlled within 2 °C of the level before industrialization, it
is required to achieve zero net CO2 emission (that is, carbon neutrality) in the early
2070s, and if the global warming is to be controlled within 1.5 °C of the level before
industrialization, it is required to achieve zero net CO2 emission in the early 2050s.
Until now, about 131 countries including China, in order to control global climate
change, have proposed carbon neutrality goals in different forms, which account for
about 88% of global carbon emissions and about 90% of the total global economy
[7].

1.1.2 Status-Quo of GHG Emissions from China’s

Automotive Industry

In 2020, the total carbon emissions produced in China reached about 10.2 billion tons,
accounting for 29.7% of the global total carbon emissions [8]. Such a high carbon
emission level exerted a high pressure on the realization of China’s “30/60” goals.
The transport sector, due to such characteristics as high carbon emission, fast carbon
emission growth and long industrial chain, has become an important part of China’s
GHG emission reduction strategy. As the largest automobile manufacturing country
in the world, China has stood at the first position in terms of vehicle production
and sales for 13 consecutive years, and in 2021, the vehicle production and sales
of China reached 26.082 million and 26.275 million respectively [9]. By the end of
March 2022, the population of motor vehicles and vehicles in China reached 402
million and 307 million respectively [10]. With the increase of production, sales and
population of vehicles, the carbon emission of the automotive industry is growing
rapidly, and its contribution to the carbon emission of the transport sector is increasing
day by day. As shown in Fig. 1.3, the carbon emissions from road transport in 2019
was about 800 million tons, accounting for about 8% of the total CO2 emissions in
China, and more than 85% of the total CO2 emissions in transport sector [11].
The automotive industry has gradually become one of the important sources of
carbon emissions in the transport sector and even in China, and if the carbon emis-
sions generated by the upstream industrial chains of automotive industry are taken
into account, the contribution of automotive industry to China’s total CO2 emis-
sions is much higher. The rapid increase of energy demand and carbon emissions
in the automotive industry has further aggravated the increasingly serious energy
crisis and ecological environment crisis, and has brought great challenges to the
sustainable development of China’s economy and society. From this point of view,
effectively controlling the total carbon emissions of the automotive industry is of
4 1 Overview

Fig. 1.3 CO2 emissions of transport sector from 2010 to 2019

great significance to the green and low-carbon transformation of the transport sector,
and thereafter to the achievement of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.

1.1.3 Impact of Climate Change on China’s Automotive

Industry Structure

In order to promote the low-carbon and high-quality development of the automo-

tive industry, China is accelerating the research, development and application of
new energy vehicles. Since 2009, the Central Government has provided vigorous
support for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles by adopting pref-
erential policies such as NEV purchase subsidies, and NEV purchase tax relief. In
addition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the Ministry
of Finance (MF) and other ministries jointly issued the Measures for the Parallel
Administration of the Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credits of
Passenger Vehicle Enterprises, which establishes a dual-credit linkage management
mechanism, confirms the management requirements for average fuel consumption
of enterprises, and forms a long-term development mechanism for the NEV industry.
On January 21, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)
and other ministries jointly issued the Implementation Plan for Promoting Green
Consumption, which proposes a series of measures, including phasing out NEV
purchase restrictions in various regions, promoting the implementation of support
policies such as free traffic and right of way, and strengthening the construction
of infrastructures such as charging/battery swapping facilities, new energy storage
facilities and hydrogen charging facilities. The implementation of a series of favor-
able policies for new energy vehicles, such as NEV purchase subsidies, purchase tax
1.1 Impact of Global Climate Change on Automotive Industry 5

reduction and exemption, dual-credit policy and basic security, has accelerated the
market development of China’s NEV industry.
At the same time, the enterprises are accelerating the research and development of
NEV technologies, taking electrification as one of the main strategies for future devel-
opment, and accelerating the NEV product layout to continuously increase the NEV
market share. Manufacturers of conventional fuel vehicles are also trying to develop
HEV and BEV versions based on the original fuel version. For example, GWM
adopted the GIFT (Green Intelligent Future Technology) strategy, and proposed to
carry out saturated precision investment in the BEVs, FCEVs and HEVs, and it is
expected that by 2025, GWM will launch more than 50 NEV models, which will
account for 80% of the total vehicles models of GWM; GAC adopted the GLASS
(Green, Low-carbon, Achieving, Sustainable and Success) Plan and proposed to
increase the proportion of sales of self-developed NEVs to 50% in 2025 and 50%
in 2030; BYD officially announced on April 3, 2022 to stop the production of fuel
vehicles from March, and transfer its vehicle production focus to BEVs and HEVs in
the future; and in addition, the newly emerging automakers including NIO, XPeng,
Li Auto and NETA are also constantly promoting the development of new energy
vehicles.
Thanks to the strong support and guidance of subsidy policies and the posi-
tive response of enterprises, China’s NEV industry has embraced its rapid devel-
opment, with the product quality, technology level and product practicality greatly
improved. According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufac-
turers (CAAM), the NEV market share has risen rapidly in recent years. In 2021, the
NEV sales broke the history record and exceeded 3 million, with a YoY growth rate
up to 157.5%. As shown in Fig. 1.4, from 2020 to February 2022, the monthly market
penetration rate in most months increased by more than 100% compared to the same
period of last year, and even reached 214% in September 2021; Throughout 2021,
the NEV market penetration rated exceeded 10% and reached 13.4%. After all, it
was below 10% in the previous years. From January to February 2022, we kicked off
the first nice ball with market penetration rates up to 17.1% and 19.2% respectively.
On the whole, the dominator of China’s automotive industry structure is gradually
shifting from conventional fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles. As predicted by the
Technology Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles 2.0 [12], the NEV
market penetration rate in China will further increase in the future and is expected
to reach 20% by 2025 and 40% by 2030, and NEVs will become the mainstream of
automotive industry by 2050.

1.1.4 Impact of Climate Change on the Import and Export

of China’s Automotive Industry

Carbon emission management policy will promote the development of vehicle

electrification. With the introduction of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, countries
6 1 Overview

Fig. 1.4 Sales of NEVs in China from 2016 to 2021

around the world have tightened their carbon emission management in the automotive
industry. In 2019, the EU adopted the latest carbon emission standard for passenger
vehicles and light-duty commercial vehicles, which was formally implemented in
2020 [13], and specifies the carbon emission target of passenger vehicles in 2021
(95 g/km), the carbon emission target of light-duty commercial vehicles (147 g/km) in
2021, a penalty of 95 Euros for each new vehicle registered in that year for each 1 g/km
of enterprise average CO2 emission above the target, and also specifies the target of
CO2 emission reduction of passenger vehicles and light-duty commercial vehicles in
2025 and 2030 respectively (that is, 15% for both passenger vehicles and light-duty
commercial vehicles in 2020, and 37.5% for passenger vehicles and 31% for light-
duty commercial vehicles in 2030). On July 14, 2021, the EU released the revised
draft of this standard [14], which proposes to further increase the carbon emission
reduction targets for passenger vehicles and light-duty commercial vehicles in 2030
and adds a target for 100% carbon emission reduction in 2035 to better achieve the
climate goal. In December, 2021, the USA Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
and the USA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) formulated
new fuel economy and CO2 emission standards for passenger vehicles and light-duty
trucks manufactured in and after 2023 [15], and further tightened the CO2 emission
target requirements on the basis of the SAFE standard issued in 2020. The Singapore
Land Transport Authority (LTA) has revised the Carbon Emissions-Based Vehicle
Scheme (CEVS) for many times since its adoption in 2013, for example, in 2018, the
CEVS was changed to Vehicle Emission Scheme (VES) to incorporate the pollutant
emissions into the regulatory scope, according to which the vehicle will be rated
according to the indicators with the worst carbon emission and pollutant emission
1.1 Impact of Global Climate Change on Automotive Industry 7

and then be granted with rebates or imposed with surcharges; from 2021–2022, the
VES was further revised, which further increases the rewards and punishments, and
specifies that vehicles of Level A1 and Level A2 will be rewarded, Level B is the
dividing line of rewards and punishments, and vehicles of Level C will be punished.
New Zealand, in order to effectively reduce the GHG emissions of vehicles and signif-
icantly improve their fuel efficiency, issued a series of laws and regulations on energy
efficiency and CO2 emissions for passenger vehicles and light-duty commercial vehi-
cles on February 2022, including the Land Transportation Laws (on Clean Vehicles)
(Amendment 2022), Land Transportation Laws (on Clean Vehicle Tax Deduction
Scheme and Penalty) (2022) and Land Transport Rules - Vehicle Energy Efficiency
and Emission Data (2022), etc. China, on the basis of traditional fuel consumption
control, is accelerating the construction of carbon emission management system in
the automotive industry, including carbon emission accounting standards, publicity
system, etc. The carbon emission standards are becoming increasingly stringent, and
traditional automobile enterprises are forced to seek effective emission reduction
measures, among which, electrification has become one of the main paths.
Passenger Vehicle
China’s NEV Technology is Relatively Mature. China has started its development
of NEVs very early, and thus boasts certain first-mover advantages and scale advan-
tages. The NEV technologies and battery technologies have basically reached the
international advanced level, and the range of NEVs has increased year by year.

Fig. 1.5 Research content and structure framework

8 1 Overview

Specifically, in 2020, the range of battery electric passenger vehicles increased by

34.9% from the 2018 level to 394 km, and the proportion of battery electric passenger
vehicles with a range above 400 km has increased rapidly from 2.6% in 2018 to 58.7%
in 2020 [16]. At the same time, the performance, safety and intelligent application of
the new energy vehicles are improved; the supporting infrastructures such as charging
piles and management specifications are gradually improved; diversified alternative
fuel power systems are developed, and the deployment of hydrogen energy and fuel
cell industry chain are accelerated to continuously meet the travel needs of resi-
dents. The New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021–2035) requires to
continue to improve China’s NEV technology innovation capability and deepen the
planned R&D layout in the future, that is, deploying NEV technology innovation
chain vertically with BEV, PHEV (including range-extended HEV) and FCEV as
focuses, and building a key component technology supply system horizontally with
battery and BMS, drive motor and power electronics, and interconnection and intel-
ligent technology as the focuses. China has strong market competitive advantages
for new energy vehicles and wins increasing market recognition at home and abroad.
Under such a favorable development trend, the export of China’s automobile
products shows a rising trend, especially the new energy vehicles, which are not
subject to the international trade barriers against China’s conventional fuel vehicles
and become a new driving force for export growth. In 2021, the export of vehicles
from China doubled compared with last year and reached 2,015,000, among which
the export of new energy vehicles reached 310,000 with a YoY increase of 304.6%,
including 300,000 passenger vehicles (with a YoY increase of 329.5%) and 1000 new
energy commercial vehicles (with a YoY increase of 59.6%) [9]. Europe has become
the main market contributing to the growth of China’s NEV export, especially the
developed countries such as Belgium, Britain, Germany, France, Norway, Italy, Spain
and Portugal. China’s independently developed new energy vehicles, including MG
ZS and MG EHS of SAIC, Marvel R and MG5 of Risingauto, BYD Tang EV, ES6
and ES8 of NIO, XPeng G3 and XPeng P7, Dongfeng Dacia Spring Sep One and
Dongfeng Dacia Spring Step Two, are beginning to show their competitiveness in
the European market.

1.2 Consensus on Carbon Neutrality in the Automotive

Industry and Countermeasures

International automobile enterprises have put forward their own carbon neutrality
goals by 2050 from the perspective of factory, product and enterprise. For example,
Daimler proposed to build a new carbon–neutral fleet before 2039; Volkswagen
proposed to achieve group-wise carbon neutrality by 2050; Volvo proposed to develop
itself into a global zero climate load benchmarking enterprise before 2040; GWM
planned to fully realize carbon neutrality in 2045; and GAC proposed to achieve
life cycle carbon neutrality of products by 2050 (and if possible, by 2045). In order
1.3 Key Issues in China’s Automotive Industry Chain 9

to achieve the carbon neutrality goal, all automobile enterprises have put forward
countermeasures for all links of the life cycle including raw material, supply chain,
manufacturing, logistics, product and recovery, as shown in Table 1.1.

1.3 Key Issues in China’s Automotive Industry Chain

The Proportion and Regional Deployment of Clean Electricity Need to be

Improved Urgently. At present, China’s electric power structure is dominated by
thermal power with a proportion higher than 60%, resulting in high carbon emis-
sions in the process of power production. From the perspective of life cycle carbon
emission, the emission reduction effect of new energy vehicles, when considered
from the carbon emission in the process of battery production and power generation,
is relatively limited. Only when the proportion of renewable energy in the energy
structure and power grid increases can new energy vehicles play a greater role in
carbon emission reduction. However, the current development of clean electricity in
China limits the carbon emission reduction potential of new energy vehicles. In 2020,
China’s green power generation accounted for only 27% of the total social power
generation, and the supply of green power still cannot meet the demands of enter-
prises [17]. Moreover, more than 60% of China’s green power is concentrated in the
western regions where the population and industries are sparsely distributed, such as
Sichuan, Yunnan, Gansu, Guizhou, etc. China’s green power trading market is still
under demonstration, the trading market and technologies for enterprises to obtain
green power are not yet mature enough, and the development of green power trading
is yearning for the adoption of more perfect implementation rules and supporting
policies. As a result, cross-region direct trading of green power is very difficult,
and thus enterprises are more difficult to purchase and use green power. Besides,
the supply of green power falls short of demand, so that enterprises are difficult to
purchase the demanded green power, and unable to reduce carbon emissions in the
production process by utilization of green power, thus increasing the carbon emission
reduction stress on enterprises.
The Carbon Emission and Cost of Alternative Fuel Production are High.
Hydrogen energy, as a kind of secondary energy applicable for various decarboniza-
tion application scenario with such advantages as rich reserve, high calorific value,
storability and wide sources, is expected to play a key role in promoting energy
transformation and improving the flexibility of energy system. At present, the most
common hydrogen production methods in China include: hydrogen production by
reforming fossil energy based on coal and natural gas, and hydrogen production by
industrial by-product gases represented by coke oven gas and chlor-alkali exhaust
gas; the hydrogen production by water electrolysis, is still at the megawatt level and
has not shown its economies of scale; and the hydrogen production from biomass
is still in the stage of experiment and development, and has not yet reached the
requirements of industrial scale application.
10 1 Overview

Table 1.1 Examples of life cycle carbon neutrality measures of vehicles

Material Supplier Manufacturing Logistics Product Recovery
• Renewable • Take the CO2 • Use electricity • Optimize the • Create a new Improve the
materials; indicator as an generated by logistics energy power transparency of
• Energy important renewable network: system which secondary raw
efficient standard for energies: shorten the covers BEV materials used in
materials; selection of outsourcing or driving technology, products;
• Lightweight suppliers; production; mileage; HEV • Develop new
materials; • Use batteries • Optimize transfer road technology, recycling
• Parts/materials produced from production transportation alternative technologies
produced by renewable process or and air fuels, fuel cells for
renewable energies; technology; transportation and other high-voltage
energy • Propose share • Improve the to railway technical paths batteries:
• Bio-based requirements utilization rate transportation; • Improve promote the
materials; for recycled of materials use traditional fuel recycling of
• High-strength materials of and reduce the multi-purpose efficiency; nickel, cobalt,
materials; aluminum, use of trucks, increase • Promote the lithium and
• Reduction of nickel and materials and production of
truck loading other materials;
demand for cobalt to parts new energy • Adopt easy-
capacity,
raw materials; battery • Collect waste vehicles; disassembly
reduce times of
• Increasing use suppliers heat • Improve the
transportation, design
of recycled • Select • Carbon offset: energy density • Build a
and select local
materials for environment purchase of the battery scrapping
suppliers as
aluminum, friendliness carbon credits network for
much as
cobalt and and to offset end-of-life
possible
nickel recyclability of emissions vehicles
• Reduce
raw materials generated in packaging • Build a battery
as the major the materials: use ecosystem
basis for manufacturing lightweight
selection and process packaging
procurement of • Control materials
raw materials; emissions from which is 100%
• Apply processes and degradable;
blockchain promote recycle
technology to recycling; packaging
achieve global • Promote the materials;
traceability of operation implement
battery raw environment container
materials; management sharing and
• Implement system; leasing plan;
supplier • Establish a • Apply new
sustainability special energy energy vehicles
training and conservation for
self-evaluation improvement transportation:
• Promote and team; realize
strengthen electrification
environmental of
risk audit; transportation
• Carry out vehicles
mutual
inspection of
supplier
environmental
countermea-
sures to Tier2
suppliers;
1.3 Key Issues in China’s Automotive Industry Chain 11

The production and transportation of hydrogen energy are expected to consume

certain resources and energies, and its direct and indirect GHG emissions are
highly correlated with the hydrogen production and transportation modes selected.
According to CATARC-ADC’s calculation based on the current situation that the
chemical industry is dominated by coal and the hydrogen transportation is domi-
nated by tube trailer, the production, storage and transportation of each kilogram
of hydrogen will emit about 26.8 kg of greenhouse gas. It is predicted by China
Hydrogen Alliance that, by 2050, the hydrogen produced from fossil energy, the
hydrogen produced by biomass and the renewable energy will take a share of 20%,
10% and 70% respectively, and hydrogen will be mainly transported by high-pressure
hydrogen tanks and pipelines.
Therefore, it can be found that the low-carbon development of hydrogen energy
depends on the choice of hydrogen production mode and transportation mode,
that is to say, we should take technical paths such as increasing the proportion
of hydrogen production by water electrolysis from renewable energy, developing
gaseous hydrogen pipeline transportation, and optimizing the hydrogen transporta-
tion distance, which, however, entail a large amount of manpower and material
resources. According to the calculation in the Annual Report on the Development of
Automotive Hydrogen Industry in China (2021) [18], the cost of hydrogen produc-
tion from coal is about 6.77–12.14 yuan/kg, the cost of hydrogen production by
water electrolysis from commercial electricity is higher than 40 yuan/kg, and the
cost of hydrogen production by water electrolysis from renewable energy, thanks to
our sufficient natural resources, is about 20 yuan/kg, and the hydrogen production
from industrial by-products, though low in cost, is hard to be developed in scale and
thus cannot become a stable large-scale hydrogen supply source in the future. There-
fore, balancing the cost of water electrolysis from renewable energy reasonably and
improving the maturity of hydrogen production and transportation technology are
the keys for the hydrogen to realize its low-carbon merits.
The Carbon Emission Management Capacity of Automobile Enterprises Needs
to be Strengthened. Developed countries such as European countries and the United
States have started their carbon emission management earlier and have established
a sound carbon emission standard system, such as EU’s CO2 emission standards for
passenger vehicles and light-duty commercial vehicles, and the United States’ GHG
and CAFE standards. However, China only has established a standard system with
fuel consumption and pollutants as the regulatory objects, and lacks a unified carbon
emission standard system to effectively guide the carbon emission management of
the automotive industry. Domestic enterprises have also started their carbon emission
management very late, and have not accumulated enough experience in this aspect.
Therefore, their products face great policy compliance risks and market risks. Under
the dual influence of the carbon peak and carbon neutrality strategy and the interna-
tional situation, it is particularly important for China to strengthen the carbon emis-
sion accounting and management ability of automobile enterprises to improve their
products’ low-carbon competitiveness and develop low-carbon automobile products.
12 1 Overview

The Battery Recycling Supervision and Management Mechanism Needs to be

Improved. The draft of the Regulation concerning Batteries and Waste Batteries
issued by the EU puts forward mandatory requirements on the recycling propor-
tion of batteries and their key raw materials and the application amount of recycled
materials, and specifies that batteries not meeting the minimum requirements in this
Regulation are not allowed to be sold and used in the EU market, which will pose
a great challenge to the export of China’s automotive products and battery prod-
ucts. In addition, with the development of new energy vehicles, the competition for
key raw materials such as nickel, cobalt and lithium intensifies. China is seriously
short of lithium, cobalt and nickel resources and depends highly on imports for those
resources, which, together with the external uncertainties, exacerbates the supply
risk of lithium, cobalt and nickel resources in China and limits China’s NEV devel-
opment. Therefore, establishing a sound battery recycling management system will
effectively promote the recycling of key raw materials and parts, and play an impor-
tant role in energy conservation and emission reduction, easing resource tension, and
coping with international trade barriers. At present, China has not adopted sufficient
mandatory requirements for regulating the battery recycling management system,
and the certification mechanism for the application amount of recycled materials
and the carbon emission reduction accounting mechanism for the recycling of waste
batteries have not been established. Therefore, it is urgent to speed up the formulation
of policies and supporting measures.

1.4 Research Framework and Overall Idea of this Book

This book, by deeply combination of China’s automotive industry development

trend with the characteristics of automotive products, puts forward the accounting
method of life cycle carbon emissions of vehicles, and discloses the carbon emis-
sion data of automotive products, enterprises and industries, and based on these
data, proposes ten transformation paths for the automotive industry to be carbon
neutral, including but not limited to: power grid decarbonization; vehicle electrifi-
cation; fuel decarbonization, low-carbon material; production digitalization (energy
efficiency improvement); transportation intelligence; shared mobility; resource recy-
cling; carbon capture, utilization and storage; and product ecologicalization, and then
based on the effects of the ten paths under different scenarios, makes a quantitative
analysis on the carbon emission reduction potential of future automotive products
and the automotive industry, and provides suggestions on the carbon neutrality devel-
opment strategies and policies for the automotive industry. The research content and
structure framework of this Book are shown in Fig. 1.5.
References 13

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2021. Phys Sci Basis [R]
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4. United nations environment program (2019). Emissions gap report 2019 [R]
5. Institute of climate change and sustainable development, Tsinghua University (2021). Compre-
hensive report on China’s long-term low-carbon development strategies and pathways [R].
Beijing, China Environment Publishing Group
6. Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) (2022) IPCC_AR6_WGIII: climate change
2022 mitigation of climate change [R]
7. Energy and climate intelligence unit. Net zero tracker. https://zerotracker.net/
8. BP China (2021) BP statistical review of world energy [R]
9. China association of automobile manufacturers (CAAM) (2022) PPTs for understanding the
production and sales data. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/t6sSfdyHqWbiuGaSqFTB2A
10. Traffic Administration Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security of the People’s Republic of
China (2022) The population of motor vehicles in China exceeded 400 million, and 1.11 million
new energy vehicles were newly registered in the first quarter with a YoY increase of 138.20%,
China. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XJcAEIgb-LhtHpgiGor10g.
11. World Resources Institute (2017) Transport emissions and social cost assessment: methodology
guide [R]
12. China society of automotive engineers (2021) Technology roadmap for energy saving and new
energy vehicles 2.0 [M]. Beijing, China Machine Press
13. European Union (2019) Regulation (EU) 2019(631) setting CO2 emission performance stan-
dards for new passenger vehicles and for new light commercial vehicles. Official J Eur
Union
14. European Union (2021) Amending regulation (EU) 2019/631 as regards strengthening the CO2
emission performance standards for new passenger vehicles and new light commercial vehicles
in line with the Union’s increased climate ambition [S]
15. Environmental protection agency (2021) Revised 2023 and later model year light-duty vehicle
greenhouse gas emissions standards [S]
16. Zhenpo W, Zhaowen L et al (2021) Annual report on the big data of new energy vehicle in
China [M]. China Machine Press, Beijing
17. Department of Energy Statistics (2019) National Bureau of statistics. China Energy Statistics
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on the development of automotive hydrogen industry in China (2021) [M]. Beijing, Social
Science Literature Press
Chapter 2
Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting
Method for Vehicles

2.1 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Model

for Vehicles

2.1.1 Determination of Purpose and Scope

2.1.1.1 Functional Unit

This study is intended to account for the life cycle carbon emissions of passenger
vehicles and commercial vehicles produced in China. The research objects include
passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle (including buses, light-duty trucks and
heavy-duty trucks), both of which can be divided according to the fuel type into
gasoline or diesel vehicle, non off-vehicle chargeable hybrid electric vehicle (NOVC
HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), battery electric vehicle (NEV), natural
gas vehicle (NGV) and fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV). The specific accounting
models and their corresponding abbreviations are listed in Table 2.1.
For the purpose this study, the functional unit of passenger vehicles is taken as
the transport service provided by a single passenger vehicle traveling 1 km in its life
cycle, with the life cycle mileage calculated as (1.5 × 105 ) km; the functional unit
of trucks is taken as the transport service provided by a single truck carrying 1t load
for 1 km in its life cycle, with the life cycle mileage of light-duty trucks calculated
as (6 × 105 ) km, and the life cycle mileage of heavy-duty trucks calculated as (7 ×
105 ) km; the functional unit of buses is taken as the transport service provided by a
single bus carrying 1 person for 1 km in the life cycle, with the life cycle mileage
calculated as (4 × 105 ) km.
According to the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, the
accounting objects of carbon emissions include emissions of greenhouse gases such
as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons,
sulfur hexafluoride and nitrogen trifluoride.

© China Machine Press 2023 15

Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd. et al.,
China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022),
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7502-8_2
Table 2.1 Models under accounting and their corresponding abbreviations
16

Type Passenger Commercial vehicles

vehicle Buses Coach Light-duty truck Heavy-duty truck
Single-unit truck Dump truck Tractor
Gasoline-only vehicle Gasoline Gasoline bus Gasoline
(gasoline vehicle) passenger light-duty truck
vehicle
Diesel-only vehicle Diesel Diesel bus Diesel coach Diesel light-duty Diesel heavy-duty Diesel heavy-duty Diesel heavy-duty
(diesel vehicle) passenger truck single-unit truck dump truck tractor
vehicle
Non NOVC hybrid NOVC hybrid NOVC hybrid NOVC hybrid NOVC hybrid NOVC hybrid
off-vehicle-chargeable electric electric bus electric light-duty electric electric electric heavy-duty
hybrid electric vehicle passenger truck heavy-duty single heavy-duty dump tractor
(NOVC HEV) vehicle vehicle truck
Plug-in hybrid electric Plug-in hybrid Plug-in hybrid Battery electric
vehicle electric electric bus light-duty truck
(PHEV) passenger
vehicle
Battery electric vehicle Battery electric Battery electric Battery Battery electric Battery electric Battery electric
passenger bus electric coach heavy-duty heavy-duty dump heavy-duty tractor
vehicle single-unit truck truck
Natural gas vehicle Natural gas bus Natural gas Natural gas Natural gas Natural gas
coach heavy-duty heavy-duty dump heavy-duty tractor
single-unit truck truck
(continued)
2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles
Table 2.1 (continued)
Type Passenger Commercial vehicles
vehicle Buses Coach Light-duty truck Heavy-duty truck
Single-unit truck Dump truck Tractor
Fuel cell electric Fuel cell Fuel cell Fuel cell Fuel cell electric Fuel cell electric Fuel cell electric
vehicle electric electric bus electric coach light-duty truck heavy-duty dump heavy-duty tractor
passenger truck
vehicle
Note The models in grey cells represent models not included in the carbon emission accounting of this report
2.1 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Model for Vehicles
17
18 2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles

Fig. 2.1 Boundary of life cycle carbon emission accounting system of vehicles

2.1.1.2 System Boundary

The system boundary for vehicle life cycle assessment in this study covers the whole
life cycle of vehicle, including vehicle cycle and fuel cycle. The vehicle cycle consists
of material production, vehicle production, maintenance (including tyre replacement,
lead-acid battery replacement, fluid replacement, and refrigerant escape) and other
stages, among which the material production stage includes raw material acquisition
and processing process, and recycled material production and processing process;
The fuel cycle, namely “well to wheels (WTW)”, includes fuel production and trans-
portation (Well to Pump) stage and fuel use (Pump to Wheels) stage. For fuel vehi-
cles and natural gas vehicles, WTP includes exploitation, refining, processing and
transportation of crude oil; for electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles, WTP
includes the production and transmission of electric power (including thermal power,
hydropower, wind power, PV power, nuclear power, etc.) and fuel cell system.
The transportation of raw materials and parts, the processing and manufacturing of
parts, the manufacturing of production equipment, and the construction of workshops
and other infrastructures are not included in the boundary. The system boundary for
life cycle carbon emission accounting of vehicles is shown in Fig. 2.1.

2.1.2 Vehicle Inventory Data

2.1.2.1 Vehicle Cycle Inventory Data

This book, taking the automotive materials as the accounting object, divides the
vehicle into six parts namely part, tyre, lead-acid battery, lithium-ion battery, fuel
2.1 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Model for Vehicles 19

cell system and fluid, and considering the carbon emission and weight of materials
in each part and the verifiability of data, accounts for 27 materials in total, as shown
in Table 2.2.
The weight proportion of part, tyre, lead-acid battery, lithium-ion battery, fuel cell
system and fluid involved in the vehicle cycle, the proportion of their materials, the
material carbon emission factor, the vehicle production carbon emission factor and
other data are sourced from CALCM-2021. The data for the weight proportion of
part, tyre, lead-acid battery, lithium-ion battery, fuel cell system and fluid and the
proportion of their materials are derived from the weighted average output of more
than 90 mainstream models classified by CATARC-ADC.

Table 2.2 List of materials

No Material category
within the accounting scope
1 Steel
2 Cast iron
3 Aluminum and aluminum alloys
4 Magnesium and magnesium alloys
5 Copper and copper alloys
6 Thermoplastics
7 Thermosetting plastics
8 Rubber
9 Fabric
10 Ceramic/glass
11 Lead
12 Sulphuric acid
13 Glass fibre
14 Lithium iron phosphate
15 Lithium nickel cobalt manganate
16 Lithium manganate
17 Graphite
18 Electrolyte: Lithium hexafluorophosphate
19 Lubricant
20 Brake fluid
21 Coolant
22 Refrigerant
23 Washer fluid
24 Silica gel
25 Carbon fibre
26 Resin
27 Platinum
20 2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles

In addition, the vehicle cycle accounting in this study covers the carbon emissions
from tyre replacement, lead-acid battery replacement, fluid replacement and refrig-
erant escape during the driving process, as well as the carbon emissions from the
vehicle production processes such as stamping, welding, coating, final assembly and
power station. The times of tyre replacement, lead-acid battery replacement, fluid
replacement and refrigerant escape are shown in Table 2.1.
As shown in Table 2.2, the data of carbon emission from automotive materials,
energy, fuel and vehicle production in this study are sourced from the China Auto-
motive Life Cycle Database (CALCD), which represents the average level of China.
CALCD is the first localized automotive life cycle database in China that covers more
than 20,000 life cycle inventory process data related to automobile products in the
whole industry chain in such respects as resource consumption, energy consumption,
pollutant emissions, greenhouse gas emissions and economic cost, including data of
basic materials, energy, and basic processes such as transportation and processing,
as well as process data and core models for production and recycling of key parts
and batteries, and manufacturing, transportation, operation, scrapping and recycling
of vehicles, etc.

2.1.2.2 Fuel Cycle Inventory Data

The data of fuel consumption (except energy consumption) and energy consumption
of passenger vehicles used in this study are based on the test data of WLTC and CLTC
respectively. The data of carbon emission factor of fuel production are sourced from
the China Automotive Life Cycle Database (CALCD), which represents the average
level of China, as shown in Appendix Table 3. The electricity carbon emission factor
is calculated according to the national average level based on China’s energy structure
in 2017 (coal-fired power 64.7%, hydropower 18.6%, renewable energy power 6.5%,
nuclear power 3.9%, natural gas power 3.2% and oil power 3.1%).
The carbon emission from fuel use is calculated by using the CO2 conversion
factor in GB 27,999–2019 (i.e. 2.37kgCO2 e/L for gasoline, and 2.60kgCO2 e/L for
diesel); the carbon emission during power use is calculated as 0.

2.2 Accounting Method for Life Cycle Carbon Emissions

of Single Vehicle

2.2.1 Vehicle Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Methods

The vehicle cycle carbon emission is calculated according to Formula (2.1), with the
carbon emission in the parts processing stage and the transport stage not considered.

C V ehicle = C Material + CPr oduction + CRe placement (2.1)

2.2 Accounting Method for Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Single Vehicle 21

where,
C Vehicle— vehicle cycle carbon emissions, kgCO2 e;
C Material— carbon emissions in the material production stage, kgCO2 e;
CProduction— carbon emissions in the vehicle production stage, kgCO2 e;
C Replacement— carbon emissions during maintenance (tyre replacement, lead-acid
battery replacement, fluid replacement and refrigerant escape), kgCO2 e.

2.2.1.1 Material Production Stage

The carbon emissions in the material production stage shall be calculated according
to Formula (2.2), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places:

C Materials = C Par ts + C Lead acid batter y

+ C Li−ion batter y
(2.2)
+C Fuel Cell System
+ C T yr es + C Fluids

C Material —carbon emissions in the material production stage, kgCO2 e

C Parts —carbon emissions of parts, kgCO2 e;
C Lead acid battery —carbon emissions of lead-acid batteries, kgCO2 e;
C Li-Ion battery —carbon emissions of lithium-ion batteries, kgCO2e;
C Fuel Cell System —carbon emissions of fuel cell systems, kgCO2 e;
C Tyres —carbon emissions of tyres, kgCO2 e;
C Fluids —carbon emissions of fluids, kgCO2 e.
The carbon emissions of auto parts (excluding tyres, batteries, fuel cell systems
and fluids) shall be calculated according to Formula (2.3) or Formula (2.4), with the
calculation result rounded to two decimal places:

C Par t = M Par t material i + Umaterial i + C E FPar t material i (2.3)


C Par ts = (M Par t pr−material i
× U Par t material i
× C E FPar t pr −material i
(2.4)
+M Par t r e−material i
× U Par t material i
× C E FPar t r e−material i
)

where,
C Parts —carbon emissions of parts, kgCO2 e/kg;
MPart material i —weight of part material i, kg;
Umaterial i —use coefficient of material i, expressed as the percentage of material
used in the manufacturing process in the vehicle, which is taken as 100% with loss
not considered.
CEF Part material i —carbon emission factor of part material i, kgCO2 e/kg;
M Part pr-material i —mass of part primary material i, kg;
M Part re-material i —mass of part recycled material i, kg;
CEF Part pr-material i —carbon emission factor of part primary material i, kgCO2 e/kg;
22 2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles

CEF Part re-material i —carbon emission factor of part recycled material i, kgCO2 e/kg.
The carbon emission of lead-acid battery can be calculated according to Formula
(2.5) or Formula (2.6), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places:

C Lead acid batter y
= (M Lead acid material i
× U Material i × C E FLead acid material i
)
(2.5)

C = (M ×U × CEF
Lead acid batter y Lead acid pr −material i Material i Lead acid pr −material i
(2.6)
+M ×U × CEF )
Lead acid r e−material i Material i Lead acid r e−material i

where,
C Lead acid battery —carbon emissions of lead-acid batteries, kgCO2 e;
M Lead acid battery material i —mass of lead-acid battery material i, kg;
Umaterial i —use coefficient of material i, expressed as the percentage of material
used in the manufacturing process in the vehicle, which is taken as 100% with loss
not considered.
CEF Lead acid battery material i —carbon emission factor of lead-acid battery material i,
kgCO2 e/kg;
M Lead acid pr-material i mass of lead-acid battery primary material i, kg;
M Lead acid re-material i —mass of lead-acid battery recycled material i, kg;
CEF Lead acid pr-material i —carbon emission factor of lead-acid battery primary
material i, kgCO2 e/kg;
CEF Lead acid re-material i —carbon emission factor of lead-acid battery recycled
material i, kgCO2 e/kg.
The carbon emission of lithium-ion battery of BEVs, PHEVs, NOVC HEVs and
FCEVs can be calculated separately (for gasoline vehicles or diesel vehicles, the
mass of battery is calculated as 0) according to Formulas (2.7), (2.8) or (2.9), with
the calculation result rounded to two decimal places:

C Li−I on batter y
= (M Li−I on material i
× U Material i × C E FLi−I on material i
)
(2.7)

C Li−I on batter y
= (M Li−I on pr −material i
× U Material i × C E FLi−I on pr −material i

+M Li−I on r e−material i
× U Material i × C E FLi−I on r e−material i
)
(2.8)

C Li−I on batter y = R Li−I on batter y × C E F Li−I on batter y (2.9)

where,
C Li-Ion battery —carbon emissions of lithium-ion batteries, kgCO2e;
M Li-Ion battery material i —mass of lithium-ion battery material i, kg;
2.2 Accounting Method for Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Single Vehicle 23

Umaterial i —use coefficient of material i, expressed as the percentage of material

used in the manufacturing process in the vehicle, which is taken as 100% with loss
not considered.
CEF Li-Ion battery material i —carbon emission factor of lithium-ion battery material i,
kgCO2 e/kg;
M Li-Ion pr-material i —mass of lithium-ion battery primary material i, kg;
CEF Li-Ion pr-material i —carbon emission factor of lithium-ion battery primary mate-
rial i, kgCO2 e/kg;
M Li-Ion re-material i —mass of lithium-ion battery recycled material i, kg;
CEF Li-Ion re-material i —carbon emission factor of lithium-ion battery recycled
material i, kgCO2 e/kg;
E Li-Ion battery —energy of lithium-ion battery, kWh;
CEF Li-Ion battery —carbon emission factor of lithium-ion battery, kgCO2 e/kWh.
The carbon emission of fuel cell system of FCEVs can be calculated separately
according to Formulas (2.10) and (2.11), with the calculation result rounded to two
decimal places:

CFuel Cell System
= (MFuel Cell System i
× U Material i × C E FFuel Cell System i
)
(2.10)

C = (M ×U × CEF
Fuel Cell System Fuel Cell pr − material i Material i Fuel Cell pr −material i
(2.11)
+M ×U × CEF )
Fuel Cell r e−material i Material i Fuel Cell r e−material i

where,
C Fuel Cell System —carbon emissions of fuel cell systems, kgCO2 e;
M Fuel Cell System i —mass of fuel cell system material i, kg;
Umaterial i —use coefficient of material i, expressed as the percentage of material
used in the manufacturing process in the vehicle, which is taken as 100% with loss
not considered.
CEF Fuel Cell System i —carbon emission factor of fuel cell system material i,
kgCO2 e/kg;
M Fuel Cell pr-material i —mass of fuel cell system primary material i, kg;
CEF Fuel Cell pr-material i —carbon emission factor of fuel cell system primary mate-
rial i, kgCO2 e/kg;
M Fuel Cell re-material i —mass of fuel cell system recycled material i, kg;
CEF Fuel Cell re-material i —carbon emission factor of fuel cell system recycled mate-
rial i, kgCO2 e/kg.
The carbon emissions of tyres can be calculated separately according to Formulas
(2.12) or (2.13), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places:

C T yr es = (MT yr e material i
× U Material i × C E FT yr e material i
) (2.12)
24 2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles

C T yr es = (MT yr e pr −material i
× U Material i × C E FT yr e pr −material i
(2.13)
+MT yr e r e−material i
× U Material i × C E FT yr e r e−material i
)

where,
C Tyres —carbon emissions in the tyre production stage, kgCO2 e;
M Tyre pr-material i —mass of tyre primary material i (one spare tyre in five tyres), kg;
Umaterial i —use coefficient of material i, expressed as the percentage of material
used in the manufacturing process in the vehicle, which is taken as 100% with loss
not considered.
cef tyre material i —carbon emission factor of tyre material i, kgCO2 e;
M Tyre pr-material i —mass of tyre primary material i (one spare tyre in five tyres), kg;
M Tyre re- material i —mass of the tyre recycled material i (one spare tyre in five tyres),
kg;
CEF Tyre pr-material i —carbon emission factor of tyre primary material i, kgCO2 e/kg;
CEF Tyre re-material i —carbon emission factor of tyre recycled material i, kgCO2 e/kg;
The carbon emissions of fluids can be calculated separately according to Formula
(2.14), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places:

CFluids = (MFluid material i × C E FFluid material i ) (2.14)

where,
C Fluids —carbon emissions of fluids, kgCO2 e;
M Fluids material i —mass of fluid material i, kg;
CEF Fluid material i —carbon emission factor of fluid material i, kgCO2 e/kg.

2.2.1.2 Part Production Stage

The carbon emissions in the part production stage shall be calculated according to
Formula (2.15), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places:
 

C Part production = E r × C E Fr + E r × N C Vr × C E Fr + MC O2 (2.15)

where,
C Part Production —carbon emissions in the part production stage, kgCO2 e;
E r —purchased quantity of energy or fuel r, kWh, m3 or kg, etc.;
CEF r —carbon emission factor of production of energy or fuel r, kgCO2 e/kWh,
kgCO2 e/m3 or kgCO2 e/kg;
CEF’r —carbon emission factor of use of energy or fuel r, tCO2 e/GJ (for power
production, CEF’ is calculated as 0);
NCVr —average low calorific value of energy or fuel r, GJ/t, GJ/104 m3 ;
M CO2 —mass of CO2 emitted during welding, kgCO2 e.
2.2 Accounting Method for Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Single Vehicle 25

2.2.1.3 Vehicle Production Stage

The carbon emissions in the vehicle production stage shall be calculated according
to Formula (2.16), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places:
 

C Production = E r × C E Fr + E r × N C Vr × C E Fr + MC O2 (2.16)

where,
CProduction —carbon emissions in the vehicle production stage, kgCO2 e;
E r —purchased quantity of energy or fuel r, kWh, m3 or kg, etc.;
CEF r —carbon emission factor of production of energy or fuel r, kgCO2 e/kWh,
kgCO2 e/m3 or kgCO2 e/kg;
CEF’r —carbon emission factor of use of energy or fuel r, tCO2 e/GJ;
NCVr —average low calorific value of energy or fuel r, GJ/t, GJ/104 Nm3 ; which
has been adjusted according to China Energy Statistical Yearbook (2019).
M CO —mass of CO2 emitted during welding, kgCO2 e.

2.2.1.4 Maintenance Stage

The carbon emissions in the maintenance stage (tyre replacement, lead-acid battery
replacement, fluid replacement and refrigerant escape) shall be calculated according
to Formula (2.17):

CRe placement = C T yr e r + C Lead acid batter y r

+ C Fluids r
(2.17)

The carbon emissions due to tyre replacement (twice, 4 tyres for each time) shall
be calculated according to Formula (2.18), with the calculation result rounded to two
decimal places:

4
C T yr es r
= C T yr es × ×2 (2.18)
5

where,
C Tyres r —carbon emissions from tyre replacement (4 tyres) in the use stage,
kgCO2 e;
C Tyres —carbon emissions from tyre production, kgCO2 e;
The carbon emissions due to lead-acid battery replacement shall be calculated
according to Formula (2.19), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal
places:

C Lead acid batter y r

= C Lead acid batter y
× N Lead acid batter y
(2.19)
26 2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles

where,
C Lead acid battery r —carbon emissions from lead-acid battery replacement in the use
stage, kgCO2 e;
C Lead acid battery —carbon emissions from lead-acid battery production, kgCO2 e;
N Lead acid battery” —number of lead-acid battery replacements in the life cycle.
The carbon emissions due to fluid replacement and refrigerant escape (once) shall
be calculated according to Formula (2.20), with the calculation result rounded to two
decimal places:

 (M Fluid material i × C E FFluid material i × R Fluid material i )

C Fluids r = (2.20)
+MRe f rigerant × GW PRe f rigerant

where,
C Fluids r —carbon emissions from fluid replacement and refrigerant escape (once)
in the use stage, kgCO2 e;
M Fluids material i —mass of fluid material i, kg;
MRefrigerant —mass of refrigerant, kg;
CEF Fluid material i —carbon emission factor of fluid material i, kgCO2 e/kg;
RFluid material i —number of replacements of fluid material i in the life cycle;
GWPRefrigerant —global warming potential of refrigerant.

2.2.1.5 Transport Stage

The carbon emissions in the transport stage shall be calculated according to Formula
(2.21), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places:
  
Ctransport = Ctransport, p = (M p × dp × C E Ftransport, k ) (2.21)
p k

where,
C transport —carbon emissions in the transport stage, kgCO2 e;
M p —mass of materials/semi-finished products/parts, etc. transported during the
transport process p, kg.
d p —transportation distance of transport process p, km;
CEF transport,k —the carbon emission factor of the kth transportation mode, that is,
the carbon emission generated by the transportation vehicle carrying 1t load for 1 km,
including the carbon emission from the upstream fuel production and the use of fuel
during transportation, kgCO2 e/tkm.
2.2 Accounting Method for Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Single Vehicle 27

2.2.2 Fuel Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method

The fuel cycle carbon emissions shall be calculated according to Formula (2.22).

C Fuel = C Fuel production + C Fuel use (2.22)

where,
C Fuel —fuel cycle carbon emissions, kgCO2 e;
C Fuel production —carbon emissions in the fuel production stage, kgCO2 e;
C Fuel use —carbon emissions in the fuel use stage, kgCO2 e;

2.2.2.1 Fuel Production Stage

The carbon emissions from fuel production of gasoline vehicles, diesel vehicles,
NOVC HEVs, BEVs and FCEVs shall be calculated according to Formula (2.23),
with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places:

C Fuel production = FC × C E FFuel × L/100 (2.23)

where,
C Fuel production — carbon emissions in the fuel production stage, kgCO2 e;
FC—fuel consumption, l/100 km or kWh/100 km (the value of fuel consump-
tion is to be taken as follows: fuel consumption measured as per GB/T 19,233 for
gasoline passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, gasoline light-duty trucks and
diesel light-duty trucks; fuel consumption measured as per GB/T 27,840 for diesel
buses and diesel heavy-duty trucks; fuel consumption measured as per GB/T29125
for natural gas buses and natural gas heavy-duty trucks; fuel consumption measured
as per GB/T19753 for NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles and NOVC hybrid
electric light-duty trucks; fuel consumption measured as per GB/T 19,754 for NOVC
hybrid electric buses and NOVC hybrid electric heavy-duty trucks; energy consump-
tion measured as per GB/T18386 for BEVs; fuel consumption measured as per
GB/T35178 for fuel cell electric buses, fuel cell electric light-duty trucks and fuel
cell electric heavy-duty trucks);
CEF Fuel —carbon emission factor of fuel production, kgCO2 e/L or kgCO2 e/kWh;
L—life cycle mileage.
The carbon emissions in the fuel production stage of plug-in hybrid elec-
tric passenger vehicles shall be calculated according to Formula (2.24), with the
calculation result rounded to two decimal places:
28 2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles
 

c
C Fuel pr oduction = FC State B × L/100 × 1 − U Fc × C E FGasoline
i=1
(2.24)

c
+EC State A × L/100 × U Fc × C E FElectricit y
i=1

where,
C Fuel production —carbon emissions in the fuel production stage, kgCO2 e;
FC State B —fuel consumption of plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles in state
B, L/100 km, which is to be measured according to GB/T 19,753;
L—life cycle mileage of plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, calculated as
(1.5× 105 ) km.
c
i=1 U Fc - cumulative electricity utilization factor to test cycle c, which is to be
calculated according to GB/T19753;
CEF Gasoline —carbon emission factor of gasoline production, kgCO2 e/L;
EC State A —energy consumption of plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles in
state A, kWh/100 km, which is to be measured according to GB/T19753;
CEF Electricity —carbon emission factor of power production, kgCO2 e/kWh.

2.2.2.2 Fuel Use Stage

The carbon emissions in the fuel use stage of gasoline vehicles, diesel vehicles,
conventional HEVs, BEVs and FCEVs shall be calculated according to Formula
(2.25), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places:

C Fuel use = FC × K C O2 × L/100 (2.25)

where,
C Fuel use —carbon emissions in the fuel use stage, kgCO2 e;
FC—fuel consumption, l/100 km or kWh/100 km (the value of fuel consump-
tion is to be taken as follows: fuel consumption measured as per GB/T 19,233 for
gasoline passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, gasoline light-duty trucks and
diesel light-duty trucks; fuel consumption measured as per GB/T 27,840 for diesel
buses and diesel heavy-duty trucks; fuel consumption measured as per GB/T29125
for natural gas buses and natural gas heavy-duty trucks; fuel consumption measured
as per GB/T19753 for NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles and NOVC hybrid
electric light-duty trucks; fuel consumption measured as per GB/T 19,754 for NOVC
hybrid electric buses and NOVC hybrid electric heavy-duty trucks; energy consump-
tion measured as per GB/T18386 for BEVs; fuel consumption measured as per
GB/T35178 for fuel cell electric buses, fuel cell electric light-duty trucks and fuel
cell electric heavy-duty trucks);
2.3 Accounting Method for Enterprise Average Life Cycle Carbon Emissions 29

K CO2 —conversion factor in accordance with GB 27,999–2019, which is 2.37 kg/L

for gasoline vehicles, 2.60 kg/L for diesel vehicles, and 0 for battery electric passenger
vehicles;
L—life cycle mileage of passenger vehicles, calculated as (1.5 × 105 ) km.
The carbon emissions in the fuel use stage of plug-in hybrid electric passenger
vehicles shall be calculated according to Formula (2.26), with the calculation result
rounded to two decimal places:
 

c
C Fuel use = FC State B × L/100 × 1 − U Fc × K C O2 (2.26)
i=1

where,
C Fuel use —carbon emissions in the fuel use stage, kgCO2 e;
FC State B —fuel consumption of plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles in state
B, L/100 km, which is to be measured according to GB/T 19,753;
L—life cycle mileage of passenger vehicles, calculated as (1.5 × 105 ) km.
c
U Fc —cumulative electricity utilization factor to test cycle c, which is to be
i=1
calculated according to GB/T19753;
KCO2 —conversion factor, which is 2.37 kg/L for gasoline vehicles.

2.2.3 Life Cycle Carbon Emissions Per Unit Mileage

The life cycle carbon emissions per unit mileage of passenger vehicles shall be
calculated according to Formula (2.27), with the calculation result rounded to two
decimal places:

C = (C V ehicle + C Fuel )/L × 1000 (2.27)

where,
C—life cycle carbon emissions per unit mileage of passenger vehicles, gCO2 e/km;
C Vehicle —fuel cycle carbon emissions, kgCO2 e;
C Fuel —fuel cycle carbon emissions, kgCO2 e;
L—life cycle mileage of vehicle, km.

2.3 Accounting Method for Enterprise Average Life Cycle

Carbon Emissions

The sales weighted average method is adopted for accounting of enterprise carbon
emissions, as shown in Formula (2.28), which can be interpreted as follows: the
30 2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles

annual average carbon emission of an enterprise is calculated by dividing the sum

of the product of the carbon emission of each model of the enterprise with the
production and sales of the model by the annual production of passenger vehicles of
the enterprise:

Ci × Vi
C Enter prise =  (2.28)
Vi

where,
centerprise —average carbon emissions of an enterprise, gCO2 e/km;
i—serial number of a passenger vehicle model;
C i— carbon emission of the model i, gCO2 e/km;
V i —annual sales of model i.

2.4 Fleet Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method

The carbon emission reduction of automotive industry is very important for China to
achieve the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, as the automotive industry is the
main contributor to road transport carbon emissions. According to statistics, in 2020,
China’s carbon emissions in the transport sector accounted for about 9% of the total
carbon emissions in China, of which carbon emissions from road transport accounted
for 87% [1]. Compared with developed countries such as European countries and the
United States, China’s carbon emissions in the transportation sector takes a lower
proportion [2], and is the third largest carbon emission source in China. However,
now that the vehicle population per thousand people in China is relatively low [3] and
is likely to grow in the future, the carbon emissions in transport sector will continue
to increase with the increasing of vehicle population if no effective measures are
taken. Development of NEVs is the general trend of the automotive industry to
address climate challenges. NEVs, especially BEVs, will not directly produce CO2
emissions in the use stage [4], and thus can help effectively reduce carbon emissions
in the transport sector. However, some studies have shown that, although NEVs can
reduce the direct carbon emissions caused by vehicle driving, some carbon emissions
are transferred from the combustion process of fuel to the upstream fuel production
stage and the upstream vehicle supply chain [5].
In order to better analyze the NEV’s emission reduction effect and promote the
low-carbon design of automotive products, the life cycle assessment method provides
a systematic and comprehensive carbon emission accounting method [6], which
has been applied in many studies to analyze the carbon footprint of automotive
products powered by different fuels [7]. However, this method is not capable of carbon
emission assessment of the automotive industry at the macro level. Therefore, the fleet
modeling method is generally adopted. A fleet refers to the assembly of all vehicles
which has dynamic characteristics. Based on the newly sold vehicles that are included
into the fleet and the vehicles decommissioned from the fleet every year, the structure
2.4 Fleet Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method 31

of the fleet will change every year[8]. Generally, two fleet modeling methods are
available, namely top-down modeling method and bottom-up method, between which
the top-down modeling method focuses on the relationship between the automotive
industry and other sectors, and the bottom-up modeling method can better reflect the
technological progress of the automotive industry [9]. In the early stage when vehicles
in China are mainly powered by traditional fuels, the research on the assessment of
carbon emissions in the automotive industry using the bottom-up fleet model mainly
focused on the use stage of vehicles, that is, the carbon emissions directly generated
by fossil fuel combustion [10]. But in foreign countries, the researches on fleet models
have included the carbon emissions in the vehicle manufacturing stage, that is, the
life cycle assessment method is applied to the whole fleet [11]. This study, from the
perspective of life cycle, builds the China automobile life cycle assessment model
for fleet (CALCM-Fleet) by using the bottom-up modeling method. CALCM-Fleet
consists of two parts, namely passenger vehicle fleet and commercial vehicle fleet.
For the passenger vehicle fleet, four vehicle types including sedans, SUVs, MPVs
and crossover passenger vehicles, and six fuel types including gasoline, diesel, hybrid
power, plug-in hybrid power, battery and fuel cell are covered; and for the commercial
vehicle fleet, five vehicle types including straight trucks, dump trucks, tractors, buses
and coaches, and six fuel types including diesel, gasoline, natural gas, hybrid power,
battery and fuel cell are considered.

2.4.1 Accounting Method for Life Cycle Carbon Emissions

of Passenger Vehicle Fleet

The annual total carbon emissions of passenger vehicle fleet is calculated as follows:

C p f,y = C p f, f,y + C p f,v,y

where, C p f is the annual total life cycle carbon emissions of the passenger vehicle
fleet (tCO2 e/year), C p f, f is the total fuel cycle carbon emissions of the passenger
vehicle fleet (tCO2 e/year), and C p f,v is the total vehicle cycle carbon emissions of
the passenger vehicle fleet (tCO2 e/year), in which the subscript y represents the year.
For the total fuel cycle carbon emissions C p f, f , we have

C p f, f = Stock p,y,s, pw,a × C ps, f,y,s, pw,a
s pw a

where, Stock p is the annual population of passenger vehicles (units), and C ps, f is
the total carbon emissions generated by a single passenger vehicle during the driving
stage in a year (tCO2 e/year), in which the subscript s represents the vehicle type, the
subscript pw represents the fuel type, and the subscript a represents the vehicle age.
32 2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles

For the total carbon emissions generated by a single passenger vehicle during the
driving stage in a year (C ps ), we have

C ps, f,y,s, pw,a = V K T ps,y,s, pw,a × FC ps,y,s, pw,a × E Fy, pw

where, V K T ps is the annual mileage covered by single passenger vehicle, FC ps is

the fuel consumption (l/100 km, kWh/100 km or kg/100 km), and E F is the carbon
emission factor of the corresponding fuel throughout the life cycle (kg CO2 e/L, kg
CO2 e/kWh or kg CO2 e/kg). For plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, the total
carbon emissions at the corresponding driving stage shall be calculated as follows.

FC ps,y,s, pw,a,sa × E Fy,g × 1 − U F ps,y,s,a,sa
C ps, f,y,s, phev,a = V K T ps,y,s, phev,a ×
+EC ps,y,s,a,sb × E Fy,e × U F ps,y,s,a,sa

where, UF is the electricity utilization coefficient of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle,

in which the subscript sa represents the energy consumption in state A, the subscript
sb represents the fuel consumption in state B, and the subscripts g and e represent
gasoline and electricity.
The annual vehicle cycle carbon emissions of the passenger vehicle fleet are
mainly generated by the vehicle manufacturing process in the current year; therefore,
to simply the calculation, it is assumed that all the newly sold vehicles in the current
year are produced in the current year, and then the total annual vehicle cycle carbon
emissions of the passenger vehicle fleet can be expressed as follows:

C p f,v,y = Sale p,y,s, pw × C ps,v,y,s, pw
s pw

where, Sale p is the annual sales volume of passenger vehicles (units), and C ps,v is
the total carbon emissions of a single passenger vehicle in the production stage of the
year (tCO2 e/year). The calculation method of carbon emissions of a single passenger
vehicle generated in the production stage is consistent with the calculation method
of vehicle cycle carbon emissions in CALCM model. C ps,v can be calculated by the
following method:

C ps,v,y,s, pw = C ps,mat,y,s, pw + C ps, pr od,y,s, pw + C ps,maint,y,s, pw + C ps,esa,y,s, pw

C ps,mat , C ps, pr od , C ps,maint and C ps,esa , respectively represent the carbon emis-
sions from raw material acquisition (tCO2 e), the carbon emissions from vehicle
production (tCO2 e), the carbon emissions from vehicle maintenance (tCO2 e) and
the carbon emissions from refrigerant escape (tCO2 e) of a single passenger vehicle
in the current year. For their calculation methods, refer to the calculation methods
for Cmaterial , C pr oduction , Cmaintain and Cescape in the model for single vehicle.
Different from the single-vehicle carbon footprint, the calculation of fleet
carbon emissions involves the change of vehicle population and sales volume. The
relationship between the vehicle population and sales volume is as follows:
2.4 Fleet Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method 33

Stock p,y = Stock p,y−1,s, pw,a + Sale p,y,s, pw − Scrappage p,y,s, pw,a
s p a

where, Scrappage p is the vehicles decommissioned from the passenger vehicle fleet
in the current year (unit). This expression can be interpreted as follows: the population
of passenger vehicles in year y is equal to the population of passenger vehicles of
the previous year minus the number of decommissioned passenger vehicles in the
current year, and plus the number of newly sold passenger vehicles in the current year.
The number of decommissioned vehicles in that year is determined by the survival
law of vehicles. For vehicles of the same vehicle type but different fuel types, it
is assumed that their survival laws are the same (for example, the survival laws of
sedans, gasoline vehicles and BEVs are the same).

Scrappage p,y = Stock p,y−1,s,a × 1 − S R p,s,a
s a

where, is the survival rate of passenger vehicles, that is, the probability that a vehicle
of a specific age will continue to serve in the next year.
In this study, the population of the passenger vehicle fleet in the future is calcu-
lated by the vehicle ownership per thousand people model [12], which assumes that
the population of passenger vehicles per thousand people is mainly related to China’s
economic development, specifically, the population of passenger vehicles per thou-
sand people will increase along with the increasing per capita gross national product
(GDP) in China.

Stock p,y = V O p,y × Pop y /1000

V O p,y = V O p,max × e(−be )

−cE y

where, V O p is the population of passenger vehicles per thousand people in the

current year (vehicles/1000 people), that is, the number of passenger vehicles owned
by 1000 people; Pop y is the total population of people in the current year; V O p,max
is the saturated population of passenger vehicles per thousand people (vehicles/1000
people), which is assumed to be 350 vehicles/1000 people in this Book; b and c are
the fitting parameters, which are fitted according to historical data; E y is the per
capita GDP of the current year (yuan/person).
Once the number of end-of-life passenger vehicles of each year and the predicted
population of passenger vehicles in the future are available, the annual sales of
passenger vehicles can be calculated. The number of passenger vehicles of different
fuel types is determined by the market share of vehicles of this fuel type.

Sale p,y,s = Stock p,y,s − Stock p,y−1,s + Scrappage p,y,s

Sale p,y,s, pw = Sale p,y,s × M S p,y,s, pw

34 2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles

where, M S p is the proportion of passenger vehicles of this fuel type in the sales of
the year.

2.4.2 Accounting Method for Life Cycle Carbon Emissions

of Commercial Vehicle Fleet

The calculation logic of the total annual carbon emissions of the commercial vehicle
fleet is basically the same as that of the passenger vehicle fleet, and the life cycle
calculation method is also adopted. However, considering the large number of types
of commercial vehicles and the large differences in fuel consumption rates of different
levels of vehicles, this Book, for the convenience of calculation, only considers the
trucks and passenger transportation vehicles with large population, and excludes
vehicles for special purposes such as cleaning vehicles and fire engines due to the
lack of basic data and small population.
The annual total carbon emissions of commercial vehicle fleet is calculated as
follows:

Cc f,y = Cc f, f,y + Cc f,v,y

where, Cc f is the annual total life cycle carbon emissions of the commercial vehicle
fleet (tCO2 e/year), Cc f, f is the total fuel cycle carbon emissions of the commercial
vehicle fleet (tCO2 e/year), and Cc f,v is the total vehicle cycle carbon emissions of the
commercial vehicle fleet (tCO2 e/year), in which the subscript y represents the year.
For the total fuel cycle carbon emissions Cc f, f , we have

Cc f, f = Stockc,y,s, pw,a × Ccs, f,y,s, pw,a
s pw a

where, Stockc is the annual population of commercial vehicles (units), and Ccs, f
is the total carbon emissions generated by a single commercial vehicle during the
driving stage in a year (tCO2 e/year), in which the subscript s represents the vehicle
type, the subscript pw represents the fuel type, and the subscript a represents the
vehicle age.
For the total carbon emissions generated by a single passenger vehicle during the
driving stage in a year (C ps ), we have

Ccs, f,y,s, pw,a = V K Tcs,y,s, pw,a × FCcs,y,s, pw,a × E Fy, pw

where, V K Tcs is the annual mileage of a single commercial vehicle, FCcs is the fuel
consumption (l/100 km, kWh/100 km or kg/100 km), and E F is the carbon emission
factor of the corresponding fuel throughout the life cycle (kg CO2 e/L, kg CO2 e/kWh
or kg CO2 e/kg).
2.4 Fleet Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method 35

Similarly, assuming that all newly sold commercial vehicles are produced in the
same year, the total annual vehicle cycle carbon emissions of the commercial vehicle
fleet can be expressed as follows

Cc f,v,y = Salec,y,s, pw × Ccs,v,y,s, pw
s pw

where, Salec is the annual sales volume of commercial vehicles (units), and C ps,v
is the total carbon emission of a single commercial vehicle in the production stage
of the year (tCO2 e/ year). The calculation method of carbon emission from the
production and manufacturing of a single commercial vehicle is consistent with the
calculation method of vehicle cycle carbon emission in the commercial vehicle life
cycle carbon emission calculation model mentioned above. Ccs,v can be calculated
by the following method:

Ccs,v,y,s, pw = Ccs,mat,y,s, pw + Ccs, pr od,y,s, pw + Ccs,maint,y,s, pw + Ccs,esa,y,s, pw

Ccs,mat , Ccs, pr od , Ccs,mainta and Ccs,esa respectively represent the carbon emissions
from raw material acquisition of a single commercial vehicle and the carbon emis-
sions from the vehicle production in the current year. For their calculation methods,
refer to the calculation methods of C material , C Production , C maintain and C Escape in the
model for single vehicle.
For the population and sales of commercial vehicles, the following relationship
also applies:

Stockc,y = Stockc,y−1,s, pw,a + Salec,y,s, pw − Scrappagec,y,s, pw,a
s pw a

where, Scrappagec is the number of commercial vehicles decommissioned from

the commercial vehicle fleet in the current year. The number of decommissioned
vehicles in that year is determined by the survival law of vehicles. For commercial
vehicles of the same vehicle type but different fuel types, it is assumed that their
survival laws are the same.

Scrappagec,y = Stockc,y−1,s,a × 1 − S Rc,s,a
s a

where, S Rc is the survival rate of commercial vehicles.

The growth logic of commercial vehicle population is quite different from that
of passenger vehicles, and the calculation method of pollution of freight vehicles is
also different from that of passenger transport vehicles[13] . For freight vehicles, it is
generally believed that their population is mainly driven by the national economy,
that is to say, its growth is to support the increased cargo transport demand due
to economic growth. Generally, the population is generally not saturated, and is
36 2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles

generally calculated by using the elasticity coefficient. Once the number of end-of-
life commercial vehicles of each year and the predicted population of commercial
vehicles in the future are available, the annual sales volume of commercial vehicles
can be calculated. The number of commercial vehicles of different fuel types is
determined by the market share of vehicles of this fuel type.

Stockc,y,tr uck = Stockc,y−1,tr uck × (1 + AGG R × E tr uck )

where, AGG R is the annual growth rate of GDP, and E tr uck is the elasticity
coefficient for calculation of freight vehicle population, which is defined as follows:

Stockc,y,tr uck − Stockc,y−1,tr uck G D Py − G D Py−1

E tr uck =
Stockc,y−1,tr uck G D Py−1

where GDP is the gross domestic product.

Passenger transport vehicles are mainly used to meet the public travel needs of
residents. In order to simplify the calculation, it is assumed that the population of
passenger transport vehicles is linear with the population of people.

Stockc,y,bus&coach = a × Pop y + b

where, a and b are fitting parameters.

Similarly, the sales volume of commercial vehicles is calculated from the predicted
population and the number of end-of-life vehicles.

Salec,y,s = Stockc,y,s − Stockc,y−1,s + Scrappagec,y,s

Salec,y,s, pw = Salec,y,s × M Sc,y,s, pw

where, MS c is the proportion of commercial vehicles of this fuel type in the sales
volume of the year.

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Chapter 3
Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon
Emissions for Vehicles of China in 2021

3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon

Emissions of Passenger Vehicles

This section, according to the above-mentioned single-vehicle life cycle carbon

emission accounting method and the sales volume of passenger vehicles in 2021
(excluding imported models), calculates the life cycle carbon emissions of passenger
vehicles on sale in 2021. However some models, due to the lack of key data, are not
included in this calculation, and only the carbon emissions of 5313 versions of 981
passenger vehicle models from 115 automobile enterprises, which account for 98.7%
of total passenger vehicle sales in China, are considered. The carbon emissions are
analyzed by fuel type, vehicle level and life cycle stage, as described below.

3.1.1 Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions

of Passenger Vehicles of Different Fuel Types

According to the single-vehicle carbon emission accounting method, the sales volume
of passenger vehicles of five different fuel types, namely, gasoline/diesel passenger
vehicles, non off-vehicle chargeable hybrid electric passenger vehicles, plug-in
hybrid electric passenger vehicles and battery electric passenger vehicles, is weighted
averaged to calculate the carbon emissions per unit mileage of passenger vehicles of
different fuel types in 2021. Due to the update of test standards for fuel consumption
and electricity consumption of passenger vehicles, the NEDC1 fuel consumption
of gasoline passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles and NOVC hybrid elec-
tric passenger vehicles and the NEDC electricity consumption of battery electric
passenger vehicles, in order to make the calculated data more representative and

1 New European Driving Cycle (NEDC).

© China Machine Press 2023 39
Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd. et al.,
China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022),
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7502-8_3
40 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

prospective, are converted into the current WLTC2 fuel consumption and the current
CLTC-P3 electricity consumption respectively, and the fuel consumption in state
B and the electricity consumption in state A4 of plug-in hybrid electric passenger
vehicles are also converted into data of corresponding test cycle respectively. The
conversion factor is averaged from a large number of real vehicle test data. The
specific conversion factor is as follows: WLTC fuel consumption = 1.147*NEDC fuel
consumption, CLTC-P electricity consumption = 1.03*NEDC electricity consump-
tion. Since the test conditions of plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles vary
greatly, their results are not comparable to those of passenger vehicles of other fuel
types, and are only for display herein.
As shown in Fig. 3.1, among the passenger vehicles of the five fuel types, the diesel
passenger vehicle ranks first with an average carbon emission up to 369.1 g CO2 e/km;
followed in sequence by gasoline passenger vehicle, NOVC hybrid electric passenger
vehicle, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicle and battery electric passenger
vehicle with an average carbon emission of 264.5 g CO2 e/km, 220.8 g CO2 e/km,
213.3 g CO2 e/km and 149.6 g CO2 e/km respectively.
Compared with the data in the China Automobile Low Carbon Action Plan
(CALCP) Research Report 2021, the average carbon emissions of gasoline passenger
vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles, plug-
in hybrid electric passenger vehicles and battery electric passenger vehicles, under
the influence of test cycle change of fuel consumption and electricity consumption
as well as the increase of refrigerant carbon emission factor (refer to the updated data
in the Sixth Assessment Report of IPCC), all increased, i.e. by 9.3%, 11.4%, 12.3%,
1.0% and 2.3% respectively.
Compared with conventional gasoline passenger vehicles and diesel passenger
vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger
vehicles and battery electric passenger vehicles enjoy a good carbon emission reduc-
tion potential, among which battery electric passenger vehicles perform best with an
emission reduction rate of 43.4% and 59.5% respectively compared with gasoline
passenger vehicles and diesel passenger vehicles; followed by plug-in hybrid electric
passenger vehicles with an emission reduction rate of 19.4% and 42.2% compared
with gasoline passenger vehicles and diesel passenger vehicles, and then by NOVC
hybrid electric passenger vehicles with an emission reduction potential of 16.5% and
40.2% compared with gasoline passenger vehicles and diesel passenger vehicles.

2 Worldwide harmonized light vehicles test cycle (WLTC).

3 China light-duty vehicle test cycle-passenger car (CLTC-P).
4 Most of the energy consumptions of plug-in electric passenger cars sold in 2021 are still based

on NEDC. However, due to the change of testing cycle, the new version of energy consumption
test standard has no expression of state A and state B, and there is no corresponding test cycle
conversion factor between the new and old standards. Therefore, this report adopts a compromise
method to convert the electricity consumption of state A and fuel consumption of state B into the
data of corresponding test cycles respectively to approximate the energy consumption of plug-in
electric passenger cars under the new test standard.
3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 41

Fig. 3.1 Carbon emission per unit mileage for passenger vehicles of different fuel types in 2021

3.1.1.1 Analysis on Carbon Emissions of Passenger Vehicles

of Different Fuel Types at Different Life Cycle Stages

The proportion of carbon emissions at each stage of life cycle (vehicle cycle and fuel
cycle) calculated based on the single-vehicle carbon emissions for passenger vehi-
cles of different fuel types is shown in Fig. 3.2. As shown, the proportion of carbon
emissions at different stages of the life cycle for passenger vehicles of different fuel
types is significantly different, and their carbon emissions in fuel cycle are higher
than those in vehicle cycle. The carbon emissions of gasoline passenger vehicles
and diesel passenger vehicles mainly come from the fuel cycle, with a proportion of
77.3% and 77.0% respectively. With the development of electrification, the propor-
tion of carbon emissions in vehicle cycle gradually increases, while that in fuel cycle
gradually decreases. The proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of battery
electric passenger vehicles and fuel cycle carbon emissions are basically the same,
with the fuel cycle carbon emissions slightly higher.
Compared with the data in the China Automobile Low Carbon Action Plan
(CALCP) Research Report 2021, the proportions of fuel cycle carbon emissions of
passenger vehicles, except for plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles and battery
electric passenger vehicles, increased to some extend, which is a result of the dual
effects of test cycle change and increase of refrigerant carbon emission factor.
The conventional fuel vehicles and battery electric passenger vehicles differ a lot
from each in the proportion of life cycle carbon emissions and fuel cycle carbon
42 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.2 Proportion of carbon emissions for passenger vehicles of different fuel types at different
life cycle stages

emissions, which is mainly due to the following two causes: (1). The electric vehi-
cles are driven by batteries, and the material acquisition and production of batteries
will emit a large number of greenhouse gases. Therefore, the vehicle cycle carbon
emission of battery electric passenger vehicles is higher than that of fuel vehicles.
(2). The battery electric passenger vehicles are electrically driven and thus have an
energy conversion efficiency higher than that of fuel vehicles, and in addition, the
battery electric vehicles produce zero direct carbon emissions during use. Therefore,
their fuel cycle carbon emission is lower than that of fuel vehicles.

3.1.1.2 Analysis on Fuel Cycle Carbon Emissions for Passenger

Vehicles of Different Fuel Types

The fuel cycle carbon emissions for passenger vehicles of different fuel types are
shown in Fig. 3.3. As shown, the fuel cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles
are mainly within 80.2–284.2 g CO2 e/km, but differ a lot from fuel type to fuel
type, with the diesel passenger vehicle ranking first and followed by the gasoline
passenger vehicle and then by the battery electric passenger vehicle. Besides, the
carbon emissions at different stages of the fuel cycle are also significantly different.
As shown in Fig. 3.4, for gasoline passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles and
3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 43

Fig. 3.3 Fuel cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles of different fuel types

NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles, their carbon emissions from fuel use are
about 4.8 times the carbon emissions from fuel production; for plug-in hybrid electric
passenger vehicles, their carbon emissions from fuel use is about 1/6 of the carbon
emissions from fuel production, which may be related to their fuel characteristics;
the carbon emissions of battery electric passenger vehicles from fuel use is 0.

3.1.1.3 Analysis on Vehicle Cycle Carbon Emissions for Passenger

Vehicles of Different Fuel Types

The vehicle cycle carbon emissions for passenger vehicles of different fuel types are
shown in Fig. 3.5. As shown, the fuel cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles
are mainly within 60.1–87.2 g CO2 e/km, but differ a lot from fuel type to fuel type,
with the plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicle ranking first, the diesel passenger
vehicle ranking second and the gasoline passenger vehicle ranking last. Besides,
the carbon emissions at different stages of the vehicle cycle are also significantly
different. As shown in Fig. 3.6, the carbon emissions in the material production
stage take a proportion high up to 64.7–77.4%, and compared with conventional
fuel vehicles, the carbon emissions of electric vehicles in the material production
stage will increase by 5–12%; In addition, the carbon emission from refrigerant
escape shall not be ignored, as it accounts for nearly 20% of the carbon emission in
the material production stage of conventional fuel vehicles and about 14% of that
of electric vehicles; the carbon emission from lead-acid battery replacement is the
minimum.
44 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.4 Proportion of fuel cycle carbon emissions for passenger vehicles of different fuel types

Fig. 3.5 Vehicle cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles of different fuel types
3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 45

Fig. 3.6 Proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions for passenger vehicles of different fuel types

The carbon emissions for passenger vehicles of different fuel types in the material
production stage are shown in Fig. 3.7. As shown, the carbon emission of passenger
vehicles in the material production stage are within is within 38.9–61.6 g CO2 e/km,
but differ a lot from fuel type to fuel type, with the plug-in hybrid electric passenger
vehicle ranking first, the diesel passenger vehicle ranking second and gasoline
passenger vehicle ranking last. Besides, the carbon emissions at different sections of
the material acquisition stage are also significantly different. As shown in Fig. 3.8,
with the development of electrification, the proportion of carbon emissions from part
materials gradually decreases, and the proportion of carbon emissions from batteries
gradually increases. Specifically, the proportion of carbon emissions from part mate-
rials of gasoline passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles and NOVC hybrid
electric passenger vehicles exceeds 90%, that of plug-in hybrid electric passenger
vehicles is 75.1%, and that of battery electric passenger vehicles is 49.1%; the propor-
tion of carbon emissions from batteries of NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles
is 0.6%, that of plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles is 21.2%, and that of battery
electric passenger vehicles is 48.3%, nearly half of the total carbon emissions in the
material production stage.
46 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.7 Carbon emissions for passenger vehicles of different fuel types in the material production
stage

3.1.2 Accounting Results for Life Cycle Carbon Emission

of Passenger Vehicles at Different Levels

The average carbon emissions per unit mileage of passenger vehicles at different
levels, which are calculated by weighted averaging of life cycle carbon emissions of
passenger vehicles according to the sales, are shown in Fig. 3.9. As shown, the carbon
emission per unit mileage gradually increases along with the increase of vehicle level
in the order of A00-A0-A-B-C. Specifically, the average carbon emission of Level
A00 passenger vehicles is 102.9 g CO2 e/km, that of Level C passenger vehicles is
275.6 g CO2 e/km, and that of “other” types of vehicles (namely crossover passenger
vehicles, which mainly refer to minivans) is 250.2 g CO2 e/km, slightly higher than
that of Level A passenger vehicles. As shown, the carbon emission per unit mileage of
Level A00 passenger vehicles is much lower than that of passenger vehicles of other
levels, mainly because of the high proportion of battery electric passenger vehicles
with low carbon emission in Level A00 passenger vehicles sold (i.e. 99.9%).
The carbon emissions per unit mileage of passenger vehicles at different levels
are described in detail below. In order to reflect the representativeness, enterprises
and models are screened according to the sales volume, that is, the enterprises with
total sales volume in 2021 greater than 10,000, gasoline passenger vehicles with
3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 47

Fig. 3.8 Proportion of carbon emissions for passenger vehicles of different fuel types in the material
production stage

Fig. 3.9 Average carbon emission per unit mileage of passenger vehicles at different levels
48 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

sales volume in 2021 greater than 1000, diesel passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid
electric passenger vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles with sales
volume greater than 100, and battery electric passenger vehicles with sales volume
greater than 500; and for models of the same trade name under the same fuel type, the
model with the highest carbon emission per unit mileage. Then, in total 566 models
are selected, including 392 gasoline passenger vehicle models, 7 diesel passenger
vehicle models, 23 NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicle models, 20 plug-in
hybrid electric passenger vehicle models, and 124 battery electric passenger vehicle
models. The ranking of carbon emissions per unit mileage of passenger vehicles of
different fuel types at each level is as follows, with the passenger vehicles subdivided
into sedans and SUVs (including MPVs), but some models are not shown due to a
small number under some screening conditions. See “Table of carbon emissions per
unit mileage of passenger vehicles (2021)” in Annex V for carbon emissions of all
models.

3.1.2.1 Level A00 Passenger Vehicles

This subsection addresses the accounting of the carbon emissions per unit mileage
of Level A00 passenger vehicles, all of which are sedans and only include 20 battery
electric passenger vehicle models.
(1) Level A00 battery electric passenger vehicle
1. Top 10 sedans
The Top 10 runners of Level A00 battery electric sedans with the lowest
carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.10, which from low
to high are Hongguang mini (91.9 g CO2 e/km), Chery QQ Ice Cream
(92.1 CO2 e/km), Fengxing T1 (105.4 g CO2 e/km), Ora Black Cat (105.4 g CO2 e/km),
Wuling nano (105.4 g CO2 e/km), Ora White Cat (106.9 g CO2 e/km), Venucia
E30 (107.4 g CO2 e/km), Baojun E100 (108.7 g CO2 e/km), Baojun E200
(109.4 g CO2 e/km), SAIC Clever (111.5 g CO2 e/km).

3.1.2.2 Level A0 Passenger Vehicles

This subsection addresses the accounting of carbon emissions per unit mileage of A0
class passenger vehicles, including 45 Level A0 gasoline passenger vehicle models
(12 sedan models, 25 SUV models and 8 MPV models) and 21 battery electric
passenger vehicle models (4 sedan models, 13 SUV models and 4 MPV models).
(1) Level A0 gasoline passenger vehicle
1. Top 10 sedans.
The Top 10 runners of Level A0 gasoline sedans with the lowest carbon
emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.11, which from low to
3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 49

Fig. 3.10 Top 10 runners of Level A00 battery electric sedans

high are Verna (211.5 g CO2 e/km), Volkswagen Polo (215.5 g CO2 e/k),
YARiS L Zhixiang (219.4 g CO2 e/km), Vios FS (222.6 g CO2 e/km), Vios
(226.7 g CO2 e/km), Honda LIFE (230.5 g CO2 e/km), Honda Fit (230.5 g CO2 e/km),
Huanchi (230.6 g CO2 e/km), Yaris L Zhixuan (230.8 g CO2 e/km), Baojun 310
(237.7 g CO2 e/km).
2. Top 10 SUVs
The Top 10 runners of Level A0 gasoline SUVs (including MPVs) with the lowest
carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.12, which from low to
high are Peugeot 2008 (215.6 g CO2 e/km), Kia KX3 (222.7 g CO2 e/km), Kicks
(231.3 g CO2 e/km), Hyundai ix25 (233.2 g CO2 e/km), Trax (239.5 g CO2 e/km),
50 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.11 Top 10 runners of level A0 gasoline sedans

Encore (239.9 g CO2 e/km), Yipao (245.2 g CO2 e/km), Audi Q2L (256.7 g CO2 e/km),
Binyue (261.9 g CO2 e/km), Yuanjing X3 (262.3 g CO2 e/km). The carbon emission
per unit mileage of Level A0 gasoline SUVs is generally higher than that of sedans,
because the SUV has a higher fuel consumption and curb weight.
(1) Top 4 Level A0 battery electric passenger vehicles

1. Top 4 sedans
The Top 4 runners with the lowest carbon emission of Level A0 battery electric sedans
are shown in Fig. 3.13, which from low to high are BYD Dolphin (132.3 g CO2 e/km),
3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 51

Fig. 3.12 Top 10 runners of Level A0 gasoline SUVs

Neta V (133.0 g CO2 e/km), Leapmotor S01 (140.0 g CO2 e/km) and BYD E2
(151.4 g CO2 e/km).

2. Top 10 SUVs

The Top 10 runners of Level A0 battery electric SUVs (including MPVs)

with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.14,
which from low to high are Geometry EX3 (142.5 g CO2 e/km), Neta N01
(148.6 g CO2 e/km), BYD Yuan Pro (156.6 g CO2 e/km), BYD D1 (158.6 g CO2 e/km),
Audi Q2L (161.9 g CO2 e/km), Besturn NAT (163.5 g CO2 e/km), Changan
CS15 (165.4 g CO2 e/km), Oshan A600 (171.6 g CO2 e/km), Honda M-NV
(172.3 g CO2 e/km), Sehol E40X (174.4 g CO2 e/km).
52 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.13 Top 4 runners of Level A0 battery electric sedans

3.1.2.3 Level a Passenger Vehicles

This subsection addresses the accounting of carbon emissions per unit mileage of
Level A passenger vehicles, including 203 Level A gasoline passenger vehicle models
(71 sedan models, 121 SUV models and 11 MPV models), 14 NOVC hybrid electric
passenger vehicle models (5 sedan models, 8 SUV models and 1 MPV model), 14
plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicle models (4 sedan models, 9 SUV models and
1 MPV model), and 49 battery electric passenger vehicle models (30 sedan models,
17 SUV models and 2 MPV models), and besides, 2 diesel SUV models which,
however, are not displayed due to a small volume.
(1) Level A gasoline passenger vehicle
1. Top 10 sedans
The Top 10 runners of Level A gasoline sedans with the lowest carbon emis-
sion per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.15, which from low to high are Elantra
(211.2 g CO2 e/km), New Sylphy (214.0 g CO2 e/km), Jetta VA3 (222.3 g CO2 e/km),
Empow (224.9 g CO2 e/km), Bluebird (225.0 g CO2 e/km), Tiida (225.0 g CO2 e/km),
Suna Santana (228.3 g CO2 e/km), Rapid Spaceback (230.9 g CO2 e/km), Envix
(231.8 g CO2 e/km) and Integra (232.3 g CO2 e/km).
2. Top 10 SUVs
The Top 10 runners of Level A gasoline SUVs (including MPVs) with the lowest
carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.16, which from low to high
3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 53

Fig. 3.14 Top 10 runners of level A0 battery electric SUVs

are T-Cross (224.3 g CO2 e/km), Haval Red Rabbit (231.6 g CO2 e/km), Karoq
(236.0 g CO2 e/km), Tacqua (243.3 g CO2 e/km), Mazda CX-30 (243.4 g CO2 e/km),
Kamiq GT (245.2 g CO2 e/km), Toyota C-HR (247.6 g CO2 e/km), IZOA
(247.6 g CO2 e/km), Kamiq (248.4 g CO2 e/km) and Emgrand S (249.6 g CO2 e/km).

(2) Level A NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicle

1. Top 5 sedans

The Top 5 runners of Level A NOVC hybrid electric sedans with the lowest carbon
emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.17, which from low to high are Sylphy
e-POWER (185.4 g CO2 e/km), Envix (191.6 g CO2 e/km), Crider (192.1 g CO2 e/km),
Carola (193.0 g CO2 e/km) and Levin (193.9 g CO2 e/km).

2. Top 9 SUVs
54 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.15 Top 10 runners of Level A gasoline sedans

The Top 9 runners of Level A NOVC hybrid electric SUVs (MPVs) with the
lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.18, which from
low to high are Macchiato (197.7 g CO2 e/km), IZOA (208.9 g CO2 e/km),
Haval H6S (214.0 g CO2 e/km), Acura CDX (229.0 g CO2 e/km), Wildlander
(230.9 g CO2 e/km), Toyota RAV4 (232.2 g CO2 e/km) Breeze (236.8g CO2 e/km),
Honda CR-V (251.4g CO2 e/km) and Odyssey (266.3 g CO2 e/km).
(3) Level A plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicle
3. Top 4 sedans
The Top 4 runners of Level A plug-in hybrid electric sedans with the lowest carbon
emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.19, which from low to high are Elantra
(167.6 g CO2 e/km), BYD Qin PLUS (170.9 g CO2 e/km), Kia K3 (177.1 g CO2 e/km)
and BYD Qin Pro (187.5 g CO2 e/km).
3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 55

Fig. 3.16 Top 10 runners of Level A gasoline SUVs

2. Top 10 SUVs
The Top 10 runners of Level A plug-in hybrid electric SUVs (including MPVs) with
the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.20, which from
low to high are Breeze (196.0 g CO2 e/km), Macchiato (198.7 g CO2 e/km), Xingyue
(200.2 g CO2 e/km), Escape (206.6 g CO2 e/km), Lynk&Co 01 (211.0 g CO2 e/km),
BYD Song Pro (211.3 g CO2 e/km) Lynk&Co 05 (211.8 g CO2 e/km), Vetlanda
(212.4 g CO2 e/km), BYD Song Max (214.5 g CO2 e/km) and Roewe eRX5
(217.1 g CO2 e/km).
(4) Level A battery electric passenger vehicle
4. Top 10 sedans
The Top 10 runners of Level A battery electric sedans with the lowest carbon
emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.21, which from low to high
56 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.17 Top 5 runners of Level A NOVC hybrid electric sedans

are e-Elysee (141.6 g CO2 e/km), Ora Good Cat (144.5 g CO2 e/km), Ora IQ
(16.7 g CO2 e/km), BYD E3 (151.5 g CO2 e/km), Besturn B30 (157.5 g CO2 e/km),
Lavida (158.5 g CO2 e/km), Bora (158.6 g CO2 e/km), Golf (159.2 g CO2 e/km),
Venucia D60 (160.8 g CO2 e/km) and LA FESTA (163.7 g CO2 e/km).
2. Top 10 SUVs

The Top 10 runners of Level A battery electric SUVs (including MPVs) with
the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.22, which from
low to high are Xuanjie (163.3 g CO2 e/km), WM W6 (166.9 g CO2 e/km), IZOA
(167.3 g CO2 e/km), Buick Velite 7 (167.4 g CO2 e/km), WM EX5 (169.7 g CO2 e/km),
Toyota C-HR (169.9 g CO2 e/km), Tiggo W (172.5 g CO2 e/km), Venucia T60
(178.9 g CO2 e/km), Geometry C (181.8 g CO2 e/km) and Neta U (185.3 g CO2 e/km).

3.1.2.4 Level B Passenger Vehicles

This subsection addresses the accounting of carbon emissions per unit mileage of
Level B passenger vehicles, including 113 Level B gasoline passenger vehicle models
(36 sedan models, 61 SUV models and 16 MPV models), 4 diesel passenger vehicle
3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 57

Fig. 3.18 Top 9 runners of Level A NOVC hybrid electric SUVs

models (which are SUVs), 9 NOCV hybrid electric passenger vehicle models (5
sedan models, 2 SUV models and 2 MPV models), and 25 battery electric passenger
vehicle models (7 sedan models, 17 SUV models and 1 MPV model), and 2 plug-in
hybrid electric SUV models which, however, are not displayed due to a small volume.
(1) Level B gasoline passenger vehicle

1. Top 10 sedans
The Top 10 runners of Level B gasoline sedans with the lowest carbon emis-
sion per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.23, which from low to high are
Versailles C5X (248.4 g CO2 e/km), Yixuan MAX (253.3 g CO2 e/km), Preface
(256.0 g CO2 e/km), Sonata (257.6 g CO2 e/km), Optima (259.5 g CO2 e/km),
Peugeot 508 l (261.8 g CO2 e/km), Avalon (268.5 g CO2 e/km), Honda INSPIRE
(271.3 g CO2 e/km), Cadillac CT4 (274.2 g CO2 e/km) and Trumpchi GA6
(279.2 g CO2 e/km).
58 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.19 Top 4 runners of Level A plug-in hybrid electric sedans

2. Top 10 SUVs
The Top 10 runners of Level B gasoline SUVs (including MPVs) with the lowest
carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.24, which from low to high
are Haval Mythical Beast (270.6 g CO2 e/km), Peugeot 5008 (286.9 g CO2 e/km),
Custo (289.0 g CO2 e/km), Tiguan X (290.8 g CO2 e/km), BYD Song PLUS
(292.1 g CO2 e/km), Haval H7 (293.1 g CO2 e/km), Mocha (294.1 g CO2 e/km),
Wuling Journey (296.7 g CO2 e/km), WEY VV7 (306.4 g CO2 e/km) and Envision
Plus (300.7 g CO2 e/km).
(2) Level B diesel passenger vehicle
1. Top 4 MPVs

The Top 4 runners of Level B diesel MPVs with the lowest carbon emission
per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.25, which from low to high are Refine
M4 (334.8 g CO2 e/km), Refine M5 (359.7 g CO2 e/km), SAIC Maxus G10
(368.4 g CO2 e/km) and SAIC Maxus G20 (370.8 g CO2 e/km).
(3) Level B NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicle
1. Top 5 sedans

The Top 5 runners of Level B NOVC hybrid electric sedans with the lowest carbon
emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.26, which from low to high are Yixuan
MAX (203.0 g CO2 e/km), Avalon (208.0 g CO2 e/km), Accord (208.2 g CO2 e/km),
Honda INSPIRE (208.5 g CO2 e/km) and Camry (236.7 g CO2 e/km).
3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 59

Fig. 3.20 Top 10 runners of Level A plug-in hybrid electric SUVs

2. Top 4 SUVs
The Top 4 runners of Level B NOVC hybrid electric SUVs (including MPVs) with
the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.27, which from low
to high are Sienna (249.1 g CO2 e/km), Crown Kluger (268.6 g CO2 e/km), Elysion
(270.4 g CO2 e/km) and Highlander (272.4 g CO2 e/km).
(4) Level B battery electric passenger vehicle
1. Top 8 sedans
The Top 8 runners of Level B battery electric sedans with the lowest carbon
emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.28, which from low to high are
EA6 (167.9 g CO2 e/km), GAC iA5 (169.2 g CO2 e/km), Trumpchi AION S
(171.7 g CO2 e/km), Sehol E50A (172.6 g CO2 e/km), XPeng P5 (173.5 g CO2 e/km),
BAIC EU7 (182.9 g CO2 e/km), Tesla Model 3 (187.8 g CO2 e/km) and BAIC
ARCFOX αS (231.8 g CO2 e/km).
60 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.21 Top 10 runners of Level A battery electric sedans

2. Top 10 SUVs
The Top 10 runners of Level B battery electric SUVs (including MPVs) with
the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.29, which from
low to high are BYD Song PLUS (184.4 g CO2 e/km), Ant (196.4 g CO2 e/km),
Volkswagen ID.6 X (203.8 g CO2 e/km), lingzhi (203.9 g CO2 e/km), Volkswagen
ID.6 CROZZ (205.9 g CO2 e/km), Tesla Model Y (206.6 g CO2 e/km), Roewe
Marvel R (207.2 g CO2 e/km), Trumpchi AION V (215.7 g CO2 e/km), NIO ES6
(217.0 g CO2 e/km) and BMW iX3 (217.6 g CO2 e/km).

3.1.2.5 Level C Passenger Vehicles

This subsection addresses the accounting of carbon emissions per unit mileage of
Level C passenger vehicles, including 19 Level C gasoline passenger vehicle models
3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 61

Fig. 3.22 Top 10 runners of Level A battery electric SUVs

(12 sedan models and 7 SUV models), 1 diesel passenger vehicle model (which is
SUV), 4 NOCV hybrid electric passenger vehicle models (3 sedan models and 1
SUV model), and 6 battery electric passenger vehicle models (4 sedan models and
2 SUV models); No diesel SUV models, plug-in hybrid electric SUVs and battery
electric SUV models are available for Level C passenger vehicles and thus are not
shown here.
(1) Level C gasoline passenger vehicle

1. Top 10 sedans

The Top 10 runners of Level C gasoline sedans with the lowest carbon emis-
sion per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.30, which from low to high are
Phideon (282.0 g CO2 e/km), Citroen C6 (282.6 g CO2 e/km), Cadillac CT5
62 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.23 Top 10 runners of Level B gasoline sedans

(303.4 g CO2 e/km), Volvo S90 (303.9 g CO2 e/km), Benz E-Class (323.5 g CO2 e/km),
BMW 5 Series (324.7 g CO2 e/km), Cadillac CT6 (325.2 g CO2 e/km),
Taurus (328.6 g CO2 e/km), Jaguar XFL (330.5 g CO2 e/km) and Audi A6L
(359.7 g CO2 e/km).
2. Top 7 SUVs

The Top 7 runners of Level C gasoline SUVs with the lowest carbon emis-
sion per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.31, which from low to high are
Lynk&Co 09 (341.0 g CO2 e/km), Teramont X (354.4 g CO2 e/km), Teramont
3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 63

Fig. 3.24 Top 10 runners of Level B gasoline SUVs

(358.0 g CO2 e/km), Talagon (375.9 g CO2 e/km), Explorer (378.2 g CO2 e/km),
Aviator (415.1 g CO2 e/km) and Hongqi HS7 (450.0 g CO2 e/km).
(2) Level C plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicle
1. Top 3 sedans
The Top 3 runners of Level C plug-in hybrid electric sedans with the lowest carbon
emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.32, which from low to high are
BYD Han (209.9 g CO2 e/km), Benz E-class (212.6 g CO2 e/km) and Geely TX
(227.2 g CO2 e/km).
(3) Level C battery electric passenger vehicle
64 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.25 Top 4 runners of Level B diesel MPVs

Fig. 3.26 Top 5 runners of Level B NOVC hybrid electric sedans

3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 65

Fig. 3.27 Top 4 runners of Level B NOVC hybrid electric SUVs

1. Top 4 sedans
The Top 4 runners of Level C battery electric sedans with the lowest carbon emission
per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.33, which from low to high are Hongqi E-QM5
(174.0 g CO2 e/km), BYD Han (201.5 g CO2 e/km), XPeng P7 (214.0 g CO2 e/km)
and Zeekr 001 (243.0 g CO2 e/km).

3.1.2.6 Crossover Passenger Vehicles

This subsection addresses the accounting of carbon emissions per unit mileage of
crossover passenger vehicles, including 12 gasoline passenger vehicle models and 3
battery electric passenger vehicle models.
(1) Top 10 gasoline crossover passenger vehicles
The Top 10 runners of gasoline crossover passenger vehicles are shown in
Fig. 3.34, which from low to high are Wuling Zhiguang (233.6 g CO2 e/km),
DFSK k07s (254.5 g CO2 e/km), Wuling Rongguang S (263.9 g CO2 e/km),
Xiaohaishi X30 (263.9 g CO2 e/km), Changan V3 (266.6 g CO2 e/km), Changan
Star 5ct6 (269.3 g CO2 e/km), DFSK C36 (269.8 g CO2 e/km), Changan Star 9
(284.0 g CO2 e/km), Wuling Rongguang (287.7 g CO2 e/km) and Xiaohaishi X30L
(296.7 g CO2 e/km).
66 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.28 Top 8 runners of Level B battery electric sedans

(1) Top 3 battery electric crossover passenger vehicles

The Top 3 runners of battery electric crossover passenger vehicles are shown in
Fig. 3.35, which from low to high are Xiaohaishi X30L (147.4 g CO2 e/km), Wuling
Rongguang (164.2 g CO2 e/km) and DFSK C36 (178.0 g CO2 e/km).

3.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon

Emissions for Commercial Vehicles

This study, according to the classification in GB 20,997–2015 Limits of fuel consump-

tion for light-duty commercial vehicles and GB 30,510–2018 Limits of fuel consump-
tion for heavy-duty commercial vehicles, selects trucks of categories N1, N2, N3 as
3.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 67

Fig. 3.29 Top 10 runners of Level B battery electric SUVs

well as buses and coaches of categories M2, M3 as research objects, as shown in

Fig. 3.36.
Vehicles of category N1 refer to light-duty trucks with a maximum design GVM
less than 3500 kg, covering gasoline vehicles, diesel vehicles, NOVC HEVs, BEVs,
FCEVs and vehicles of other fuel types; vehicles of categories N2 and N3 refer
to heavy-duty single-unit trucks, heavy-duty dump trucks and heavy-duty tractors
with a maximum design GVM greater than 3500 kg, covering diesel vehicles, NOVC
HEVs, NGVs, BEVs and FCEVs. Buses of categories M2 and M3 cover buses of such
fuel types as diesel, natural gas, NOVC hybrid power, battery and fuel cell; coaches
of categories M2 and M3 cover coaches of such fuel types as gasoline, diesel, NOVC
hybrid power, natural gas, battery and fuel cell. In order to ensure the comparability
68 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.30 Top 10 runners of Level C gasoline sedans

of life cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles of the same type, this study
defines the functional unit of each type of commercial vehicle, i.e. g CO2 e/t·km for
trucks and g CO2 e/person·km for buses and coaches, as shown in Table 3.1.

3.2.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon

Emission of Light-Duty Trucks

According to the classification in GB 30,510–2018 Limits of fuel consumption for

heavy-duty commercial vehicles, light-duty trucks with a maximum design GVM
less than 3500 kg are selected for this study, which cover five fuel types including
gasoline light-duty trucks, diesel light-duty trucks, battery electric light-duty trucks,
3.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 69

Fig. 3.31 Top 7 runners of Level C gasoline SUVs

NOVC hybrid light-duty trucks*5 and fuel cell electric light-duty truck*. Among
them gasoline light-duty trucks, diesel light-duty trucks and battery electric light-
duty trucks of actual models with similar uses and loads are selected. However, there
are no NOVC hybrid electric light-duty trucks and fuel cell electric light-duty trucks
commercially available in the domestic market, and to increase the comparability of
the study, those two kinds of light-duty trucks are simulated by adding the diesel light-
duty truck hybrid system and referencing the fuel cell electric passenger vehicles to
provide a reference for the comparison of light-duty trucks of different fuel types.
The basic parameters and information of light-duty trucks selected for this study are
shown in Table 3.2.

5 The models marked by * are simulated models for the purpose of reference.
70 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.32 Top 3 runners of Level C plug-in hybrid electric sedans

Fig. 3.33 Top 4 runners of Level C battery electric sedans

3.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 71

Fig. 3.34 Top 10 runners of gasoline crossover passenger vehicles

3.2.1.1 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions

for Light-Duty Trucks of Different Fuel Types

(1) Research results of life cycle carbon emissions for light-duty trucks of different
fuel types

The life cycle carbon emissions of representative light-duty trucks of each fuel type,
which are directly related to the curb weight, load and energy consumption per
100 km, are shown in Fig. 3.37, and the life cycle carbon emissions of light-duty
trucks of the five fuel types are ranked from high to low as follows: fuel cell elec-
tric light-duty truck* > diesel light-duty truck > gasoline light-duty truck > NOVC
72 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.35 Top 3 runners of battery electric crossover passenger vehicles

Fig. 3.36 Classification of commercial vehicles

hybrid electric light-duty truck* > battery electric light-duty truck”. In addition, for
light-duty trucks of each fuel type, the fuel cycle carbon emission is the largest
contributor of the life cycle carbon emissions with a proportion of 83–95%; in other
words, the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emission in the life cycle carbon emis-
sions is very low. Although hydrogen is an ideal clean energy in the future, the fuel
3.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 73

Table 3.1 Classification and functional units of commercial vehicles

Category Vehicle type Functional unit
Truck N1, with GVW < 3.5 t Light-duty truck g CO2 e/t·km
N2/N3, with GVW > 3.5 t Heavy-duty single-unit truck g CO2 e/t·km
Heavy-duty dump truck g CO2 e/t·km
Heavy-duty tractor g CO2 e/t·km
Bus/coach M2/M3 Coach g CO2 e/person·km
Bus g CO2 e/person·km

Table 3.2 Basic parameters and information of single light-duty truck

Fuel type Gasoline Diesel Battery NOVC hybrid* Fuel cell*
Curb weight, kg 1360 1290 1460 1400 2094
Maximum design GVM, 2180 2330 2290 2440 2919
kg
Load, kg 820 1040 830 1040 825
Life cycle mileage, km 600,000 600,000 600,000 600,000 600,000
Energy consumption per 7.0 7.1 14.3 5.9 1.3
100 km
Unit of energy L L KWh L kg
consumption

cell electric light-duty trucks** have not shown a good carbon emission reduction
potential, which is because of the high level of carbon emission from the current
hydrogen production process. Therefore, although the fuel cell electric light-duty
truck* boasts “zero carbon emission” during use, its life cycle carbon emission is far
higher than that of fuel light-duty trucks (including diesel light-duty trucks, gasoline
light-duty trucks, NOVC hybrid electric light-duty trucks*) and battery electric light-
duty trucks, specifically, 194% higher than that of battery electric light-duty trucks
and 37% higher than that of diesel light-duty trucks. Therefore, it is not suitable to
be vigorously developed at this stage. In contrast, under the current power supply
structure dominated by thermal power, the life cycle carbon emission of battery
electric light-duty trucks is still the lowest, and it still has a dominating advantage
in carbon emission. In addition, among the fuel light-duty trucks, the carbon emis-
sion of NOVC hybrid electric light-duty trucks* is lower than (i.e. only 94% and
84%) that of gasoline light-duty trucks and diesel light-duty trucks. Therefore, the
NOVC hybrid electric light-duty trucks* is recommended to be properly developed
to replace the conventional diesel light-duty trucks, and serve as the transition model
before the vigorous development of battery electric light-duty trucks and fuel cell
electric light-duty trucks.
In order to further improve the comparability between light-duty trucks of different
fuel types and study the carbon emission per unit transport capacity, the carbon
74 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.37 Total life cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks

emissions per unit turnover (t km/t km) of light-duty trucks of different fuel types
are calculated through diving the life cycle carbon emissions by vehicle load and life
cycle mileage for the convenience of study, and the research results are shown in
Fig. 3.38. Due to difference in load, the life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover
of light-duty trucks of different fuel types is different from the life cycle total carbon
emission. The light-duty trucks of the five fuel types are ranked as per a decreasing life
cycle carbon emission per unit turnover in the following order: fuel cell electric light-
duty truck*, gasoline light-duty truck, diesel light-duty truck, NOVC hybrid electric
light-duty truck*, and battery electric light-duty truck. According to this ranking,
the battery electric light-duty truck has the best carbon emission performance, with
the carbon emission per unit turnover only being 51% of that of gasoline light-duty
truck, 58% of that of diesel light-duty truck, and 34% of that of fuel cell electric
light-duty truck*.
The life cycle carbon emissions per unit turnover of fuel cell electric light-duty
trucks under different hydrogen production processes are shown in Fig. 3.39. As
mentioned above, at present, fuel cell electric vehicles have no advantage in life
cycle carbon emission reduction, mainly because in China, the hydrogen produc-
tion process from fossil fuels is dominated, but the life cycle carbon emission
per unit turnover of fuel cell electric light-duty trucks under the hydrogen produc-
tion scenarios including hydrogen production from chlor-alkali, biological hydrogen
production and hydrogen production by water electrolysis from renewable energy
is lower than that of conventional gasoline/diesel vehicles. Moreover, the life cycle
carbon emission per unit turnover of fuel cell electric light-duty trucks applying
the hydrogen produced by water electrolysis from renewable energy has been lower
3.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 75

Fig. 3.38 Life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of light-duty trucks

than that of battery electric vehicles, showing the huge carbon emission reduction
potential of fuel cell electric vehicles in the future.
(2) Vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of light-duty trucks of different fuel
types
The vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of light-duty trucks of different fuel types
is shown in Fig. 3.40. Herein, the vehicle cycle consists of six main parts including
raw material acquisition, vehicle production, refrigerant escape, tyre replacement
and fluid replacement. For the light-duty trucks of five fuel types, a vast majority
(namely 75–86%) of the vehicle cycle carbon emissions come from the raw material
acquisition, and refrigerant escape is also a main contributor with the carbon emission
accounting for 9–12% of the vehicle cycle carbon emission, which directly reflects
the importance of replacement with low-carbon refrigerant. The contributions of the
other four parts of vehicle cycle to the vehicle cycle carbon emission are very low.
The carbon emission structure of light-duty trucks of different fuel types in the raw
material acquisition stage is shown in Fig. 3.41. Herein, the raw material acquisition
stage mainly consists of six parts including part material, tyre, fluid, lead-acid battery,
battery and fuel cell system. For gasoline light-duty trucks, diesel light-duty trucks
and NOVC hybrid electric light-duty trucks*, a vast majority (namely more than
90%) of the carbon emissions in the raw material acquisition stage come from the
production of part materials. While for the battery electric light-duty trucks, the
carbon emissions from the battery production may account for 41% of the total
carbon emissions in the raw material acquisition stage. For the fuel cell electric
light-duty trucks*, in addition to the production of part materials, the production of
fuel cell system is also a main contributor to the carbon emission in the raw material
acquisition stage, with a proportion up to 24%.
76 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.39 Life cycle carbon emissions per unit turnover of fuel cell electric light-duty trucks under
different hydrogen production processes

Fig. 3.40 Vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of light-duty trucks

3.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 77

Fig. 3.41 Carbon emission structure of light-duty trucks at raw material acquisition stage

(3) Fuel cycle carbon emission structure of light-duty trucks of different fuel types
The fuel cycle carbon emission structure of light-duty trucks of different fuel types is
shown in Fig. 3.42. Herein, the fuel cycle consists of fuel production process and fuel
use process. For fuel light-duty trucks (including gasoline light-duty trucks, diesel
light-duty trucks, NOVC hybrid electric light-duty trucks*), 83% of the fuel cycle
carbon emissions come from the fuel use process, and the remaining 17% from the
fuel production process. For battery electric light-duty trucks and fuel cell electric
light-duty trucks*, the fuel cycle carbon emissions all come from the fuel production
process.

Fig. 3.42 Fuel cycle carbon emission structure of light-duty trucks

78 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

3.2.1.2 Conclusion for Research on Life Cycle Carbon Emission

of Light-Duty Trucks

1. In the short term, the electrification of light-duty trucks is the best way to
reduce the carbon emissions of cargo transportation by light-duty trucks,
and NOVC hybrid electric light-duty trucks**can be applied as the tran-
sition before the full electrification of light-duty trucks. Among light-duty
trucks of all fuel types, battery electric light-duty trucks have the lowest carbon
emission per unit turnover, followed by NOVC hybrid electric light-duty trucks*,
diesel/gasoline light-duty trucks and gasoline light-duty trucks, and fuel cell
electric light-duty trucks* which, due to the high carbon emission of the current
hydrogen production process, has the highest carbon emission per unit turnover,
and is not suitable for large-scale promotion in the short term.
2. Low-carbon transformation for the fuel cycle is the key to the life cycle
carbon emission reduction of light-duty trucks. Most of the life cycle carbon
emissions of light-duty trucks come from the fuel cycle and only a small part
from the vehicle cycle. Therefore, reducing the fuel cycle carbon emissions of
light-duty trucks of different fuel types is the key to the carbon emission reduction
of light-duty trucks.

3.2.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon

Emissions of Heavy-Duty Trucks

According to the classification in GB 30,510–2018 Limits of fuel consumption for

heavy-duty commercial vehicles, heavy-duty single-unit trucks, heavy-duty dump
trucks and heavy-duty tractors with a maximum design GVM greater than 3500 kg
are selected for this study, among which the heavy-duty single-unit trucks cover
four fuel types including diesel, NOVC hybrid power, natural gas and battery, the
heavy-duty dump trucks cover five fuel types including diesel, NOVC hybrid power,
natural gas, battery and fuel cell, and the heavy-duty tractors cover five fuel types
including diesel, NOVC hybrid power, natural gas, battery and fuel cell. In order to
facilitate the horizontal comparison of the final results, and with the availability of
data comprehensively considered, the representative models selected for each model
and fuel type are taken from China’s Top 3 heavy-duty truck models in sales in 2020.

3.2.2.1 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions

for Heavy-Duty Single-Unit Trucks of Different Fuel Types

Life cycle carbon emissions for heavy-duty single-unit trucks of different fuel types.
The basic parameters and information of the heavy-duty single-unit trucks selected
for this study are shown in Table 3.3.
3.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 79

Table 3.3 Basic parameters and information for heavy-duty single-unit trucks
Fuel type Diesel NOVC hybrid Natural gas Battery
Curb weight, kg 2600 2750 2565 2960
Maximum design GVM, kg 4290 4495 4495 4465
Load, kg 1690 1745 1930 1505
Life cycle mileage, km 700,000 700,000 700,000 700,000
Energy consumption per 100 km 11.0 6.9 12.0 27.8
Unit of energy consumption L L m3 KWh

In order to ensure the comparability of life cycle carbon emissions between heavy-
duty single-unit trucks of different fuel types, the heavy-duty single-unit trucks with
maximum design GVM around 4.5 t are selected for this study, while the curb weight
may vary due to the structural differences of vehicles of different fuel types. For
the life cycle mileage, the end-of-life guidance on mileage for heavy-duty trucks
specified in the Regulation on Mandatory Scrapping of Motor Vehicles jointly issued
by the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission
and the Ministry of Public Security applies, that is 700,000 km.
The total life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of different
fuel types are shown in Fig. 3.43. Unlike passenger vehicles, the fuel cycle carbon
emission of heavy-duty single-unit trucks dominates the life cycle carbon emission,
with a proportion high up to 85–95%. Since the maximum design GVM of heavy-duty
single-unit trucks is mainly about 4.5 t, and their curb weight, energy consumption
per 100 km and other parameters are close to those of light-duty single-unit trucks,
the total life cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of
different fuel types is similar to that of light-duty single-unit trucks. The heavy-duty
single-unit trucks of different fuel types are ranked following an increasing total
life cycle carbon emissions as follows: natural gas heavy-duty single-unit truck >
diesel heavy-duty single-unit truck > NOVC hybrid electric heavy-duty single-unit
truck > battery electric heavy-duty single-unit truck. The fuel cell electric heavy-
duty single-unit trucks of this mass segment have not been commercialized and thus
are not considered herein. According to the current results, battery electric heavy-
duty single-unit truck has a comparative advantage in the total life cycle carbon
emission, which is consistent with the current situation that new energy logistics
vehicles (mainly of which are single-unit trucks) take a dominant position in the new
energy transformation of commercial vehicles. Compared with diesel vehicles and
natural gas vehicles, the life cycle carbon emissions of battery electric vehicles are
reduced by 43% and 44% respectively, while NOVC hybrid electric vehicles also
have a comparative advantage in emission reduction, with life cycle carbon emissions
reduced by about 30% compared with diesel vehicles.
Unlike passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles are mainly for commercial opera-
tions. For a better comparison of the carbon emission per unit transportation capacity
of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of different fuel types, the total life cycle carbon
emission is converted into carbon emission per unit turnover (t·km/t·km) according to
80 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.43 Total life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty single-unit trucks

load and life cycle mileage of the vehicle, as shown in Fig. 3.44. The life cycle carbon
emission per unit turnover of heavy-duty single-unit truck is different from the total
life cycle carbon emission. Specifically, due to a higher load capacity than diesel
vehicle, the natural gas vehicle has a lower carbon emission per unit turnover than
that of diesel vehicle, and the ranking of life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover
of heavy-duty single-unit trucks from high to low is as follows: diesel heavy-duty
single-unit truck > natural gas heavy-duty single-unit truck > NOVC hybrid electric
heavy-duty single-unit truck > battery electric heavy-duty single-unit truck. Among
the vehicles fueled by fossil energy, NOVC hybrid electric vehicles currently show
certain advantages in emission reduction with the lowest life cycle carbon emis-
sion per unit turnover, i.e. 36% lower than that of diesel vehicles and 29% lower
than that of natural gas vehicles. However, the carbon emission per unit turnover of
battery electric heavy-duty single-unit trucks is still the lowest among the heavy-duty
single-unit trucks of all fuel types, and is 37% lower than that of diesel vehicles.
Vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of
different fuel types.
The vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of
different fuel types is shown in Fig. 3.45. Herein, the vehicle cycle consists of raw
material acquisition, vehicle production, refrigerant escape, fluid replacement, tyre
replacement and lead-acid battery replacement. Among all these stages, the raw mate-
rial acquisition stage account for more than 80% of the vehicle cycle carbon emis-
sion. The refrigerant escape, which follows the raw material acquisition, becomes
the second largest source to the vehicle cycle carbon emission, with a proportion of
about 8%.
The carbon emission structure of heavy-duty single-unit trucks at the raw material
acquisition stage is shown in Fig. 3.46. As shown, the raw material acquisition stage
3.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 81

Fig. 3.44 Life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of heavy-duty single-unit trucks

Fig. 3.45 Vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty single-unit trucks

consists of part material, tyre, fluid, lead-acid battery, traction battery and fuel cell.
Among the vehicles of all fuel types, the carbon emission structures of vehicles
powered by fossil fuels at the raw material acquisition stage are relatively similar,
with more than 95% of the carbon emissions from the acquisition and processing
of part materials. While for new energy vehicles including battery electric vehicles
and fuel cell electric vehicles, the battery and fuel cell system are the second largest
emission sources following part materials. Specifically, the battery accounts for more
than 40% of the carbon emissions at the raw material acquisition stage of battery
electric vehicles, while the fuel cell system accounts for about 20% of the carbon
emissions at the raw material acquisition stage of fuel cell electric vehicles.
82 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.46 Carbon emission structure of heavy-duty single-unit trucks at raw material acquisition
stage

Fuel cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of different

fuel types.
The fuel cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of
different fuel types is shown in Fig. 3.47. Herein, the fuel cycle consists of fuel
production process and fuel use process. The battery electric vehicles and fuel cell
electric vehicles produce zero carbon emissions in the fuel use process, and 100%
of the fuel cycle carbon emissions come from fuel production; while for diesel vehi-
cles, NOVC hybrid vehicles and natural gas vehicles, the fuel cycle carbon emissions
mainly come from fuel use (with a proportion more than 80%), and only less than
20% come from fuel production.

Fig. 3.47 Fuel cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty single-unit trucks
3.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 83

3.2.2.2 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions

for Heavy-Duty Dump Trucks of Different Fuel Types

Life cycle carbon emissions for heavy-duty dump trucks of different fuel types.
The basic parameters and information of the heavy-duty dump trucks selected for
this study are shown in Table 3.4.
In order to ensure the comparability of life cycle carbon emissions between heavy-
duty dump trucks of different fuel types, unlike heavy-duty single-unit trucks, the
heavy-duty dump trucks with maximum design GVM around 31 t are selected for this
study, while the curb weight may vary due to the structural differences of vehicles of
different fuel types. Similarly, for the life cycle mileage, the end-of-life guidance on
mileage for heavy-duty trucks specified in the Regulation on Mandatory Scrapping
of Motor Vehicles jointly issued by the Ministry of Commerce, the National Devel-
opment and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Public Security applies, that is
700,000 km.
The total life cycle carbon emission of heavy-duty dump trucks of various fuel
types are shown in Fig. 3.48, and the ranking from high to low is as follows: fuel
cell electric heavy-duty dump truck > diesel heavy-duty dump truck > NOVC hybrid
electric heavy-duty dump truck > battery electric heavy-duty dump truck > natural
gas heavy-duty dump truck. At present when the total life cycle carbon emission is
taken as the assessment standard, natural gas is the best alternative fuel, enabling
the total life cycle carbon emission of natural gas vehicles to be reduced by 37%
compared with diesel vehicles and up to 240% compared with fuel cell vehicles.
Among the new energy vehicles, the total life cycle carbon emission of fuel cell
electric vehicles, mainly because the hydrogen production from fossil fuels takes
a dominated position among all hydrogen production processes currently in China,
is significantly higher than that of vehicles of other fuel types, and is even 215%
of that of diesel vehicles; while the battery electric vehicles, though China’s power
structure is still dominated by thermal power, have shown comparative advantage
in carbon emission reduction, with the total life cycle carbon emissions reduced by
36% compared with diesel vehicles. With the deployment of clean power grid in the
future and the gradual expansion of hydrogen production by water electrolysis from
renewable energy, the advantages of battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric
vehicles will become more and more prominent.

Table 3.4 Basic parameters and information for heavy-duty dump trucks
Fuel type Diesel NOVC hybrid Natural gas Battery Fuel cell
Curb weight, kg 15,500 15,720 15,500 18,000 18,000
Maximum design GVM, kg 31,000 31,000 31,000 31,000 31,000
Load, kg 16,736 16,533 16,736 17,316 16,976
Life cycle mileage, km 700,000 700,000 700,000 700,000 700,000
Energy consumption per 100 km 47 38 31 128 12
Unit of energy consumption L L m3 KWh Kg
84 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.48 Total life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty dump trucks

The life cycle carbon emissions per unit turnover of heavy-duty dump trucks are
shown in Fig. 3.49. Since the load capacities of selected heavy-duty dump trucks
of different fuel types are basically the same, the ranking of their life cycle carbon
emissions per unit turnover is also very similar to that of their total life cycle carbon
emission. The gap of carbon emission between the natural gas heavy-duty dump
trucks and the battery electric heavy-duty dump trucks is further widened, mainly
because the battery pack on the battery electric vehicle occupies a part of the vehicle
load capacity, and when the total life cycle carbon emission is converted into the
carbon emission per unit turnover, the load factor will be reflected. At present, the
natural gas vehicle is the most advantageous in carbon emission reduction among
vehicles of all fuel types considered, and ranks first with a life cycle carbon emission
per unit turnover 37% lower than that of the diesel vehicle, which is followed by the
battery electric vehicle with a life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover 24% lower
than that of diesel vehicles. Battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles,
which are both new energy vehicles, produce zero carbon emissions in the fuel use
process. Although the vehicle cycle carbon emission of fuel cell electric vehicles is
lower than that of battery electric vehicles, their fuel cycle carbon emission is about
4 times that of battery electric vehicles, which reflects the high carbon emission
intensity of China’s hydrogen production process.
The life cycle carbon emissions per unit turnover of fuel cell electric heavy-duty
dump trucks under different hydrogen production processes are shown in Fig. 3.50.
As mentioned above, at present, fuel cell electric vehicles have no advantage in life
cycle carbon emission reduction, mainly because in China, the hydrogen produc-
tion process from fossil fuels is dominated, but the life cycle carbon emission per
unit turnover of fuel cell electric light-duty trucks under the hydrogen production
3.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 85

Fig. 3.49 Life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of heavy-duty dump trucks

scenarios including chlor-alkali hydrogen production, biological hydrogen produc-

tion and hydrogen production by water electrolysis from renewable energy is lower
than that of diesel vehicles.
Vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty dump trucks of different
fuel types.
The vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty dump trucks of
different fuel types is shown in Fig. 3.51. Herein, the vehicle cycle consists of raw
material acquisition, vehicle production, refrigerant escape, fluid replacement, tyre
replacement and lead-acid battery replacement. Different from the single-unit trucks,
the proportion of carbon emission of heavy-duty dump trucks at the raw material
acquisition stage in the vehicle cycle carbon emission increases, which is mainly
due to the large contribution of carbon mission from tyre replacement. The carbon
emission of heavy-duty dump trucks at the raw material acquisition stage dominates
their vehicle cycle carbon emission, with a proportion up to 55–80%. Tyre replace-
ment is the second largest emission source of vehicle cycle carbon emission, with a
proportion of more than 30% for diesel vehicles and natural gas vehicles, and about
20% for battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles.
The carbon emission structure of heavy-duty dump trucks at the raw material
acquisition stage is shown in Fig. 3.52. Among the vehicles of all fuel types, the
carbon emission structures of vehicles powered by fossil fuels at the raw material
acquisition stage are relatively similar, with more than 90% of the carbon emissions
from the acquisition and processing of part materials. While for new energy vehicles
including battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles, the battery and
fuel cell system are the second largest emission sources following part materials.
Specifically, the battery accounts for more than 30% of the carbon emissions at the
raw material acquisition stage of battery electric vehicles, while the fuel cell system
86 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.50 Life cycle carbon emissions per unit turnover of fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks
under different hydrogen production processes

Fig. 3.51 Vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty dump trucks
3.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 87

Fig. 3.52 Carbon emission structure of heavy-duty dump trucks at raw material acquisition stage

accounts for more than 10% of the carbon emissions at the raw material acquisition
stage of fuel cell electric vehicles.
Fuel cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty dump trucks of different fuel
types.
The fuel cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty dump trucks of different
fuel types is shown in Fig. 3.53. Herein, the fuel cycle consists of fuel production
process and fuel use process. The battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric
vehicles produce zero carbon emissions in the fuel use process, and 100% of the fuel
cycle carbon emissions come from fuel production; while for diesel vehicles, NOVC
hybrid vehicles and natural gas vehicles, the fuel cycle carbon emissions mainly
come from fuel use, and only less than 20% come from fuel production.

3.2.2.3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions

for Heavy-Duty Tractors of Different Fuel Types

Life cycle carbon emissions for heavy-duty tractors of different fuel types.
The basic parameters and information of the heavy-duty tractors selected for this
study are shown in Table 3.5.
In order to ensure the comparability of life cycle carbon emissions between heavy-
duty tractors of different fuel types, the heavy-duty tractors with maximum design
GVM around 48 t are selected for this study, while the curb weight may vary due
to the structural differences of vehicles of different fuel types. For the life cycle
mileage, the end-of-life guidance on mileage for heavy-duty trucks specified in the
Regulation on Mandatory Scrapping of Motor Vehicles jointly issued by the Ministry
88 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.53 Fuel cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty dump trucks

Table 3.5 Basic parameters and information for heavy-duty tractors

Fuel type Diesel NOVC hybrid Natural gas Battery Fuel cell
Curb weight, kg 8805 8800 8800 11,900 13,400
Maximum design GVM, kg 48,805 48,800 48,800 48,270 49,205
Load, kg 40,000 40,000 40,000 36,370 35,805
Life cycle mileage, km 700,000 700,000 700,000 700,000 700,000
Energy consumption per 100 km 38 31 30 148 15
Unit of energy consumption L L m3 KWh Kg

of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry
of Public Security applies, that is 700,000 km.
The total life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors of different fuel types
are shown in Fig. 3.54, and the ranking is similar to that of heavy-duty dump trucks as
follows: fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors > diesel heavy-duty tractors > battery
electric heavy-duty tractors > NOVC hybrid electric heavy-duty tractors > natural
gas heavy-duty tractors. At present when the total life cycle carbon emission is
taken as the assessment standard, natural gas is the best alternative fuel, enables
the total life cycle carbon emission of natural gas vehicles to be reduced by 25%
compared with diesel vehicles. Among the new energy vehicles, battery electric
vehicles have shown comparative advantage in emission reduction with their life
cycle total carbon emissions reduced by 15% compared with diesel vehicles, and
in the future with the deployment of clean power grid, it will embrace a greater
emission reduction potential. The heavy-duty tractors are mainly applied in long-
distance trunk road transportation and port short-distance transportation. For long-
distance transportation, a longer range is required, and in combination with other
3.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 89

factors such as changes in hydrogen production process in the future, the FCEV
path, which has such advantages as long range and short refueling duration, is more
suitable than the BEV path; for short-distance transportation in ports or other places
without concern on mileage, both BEV path and FCEV path are suitable.
The life cycle carbon emissions per unit turnover of heavy tractors are shown in
Fig. 3.55. Since the load capacities of selected heavy-duty tractors of different fuel
types are basically the same, the ranking of their life cycle carbon emissions per unit
turnover is also very similar to that of their total life cycle carbon emission. The
gap of carbon emission between the natural gas heavy-duty tractors and the battery
electric heavy-duty tractors is further widened with the life cycle carbon emission
per unit turnover of battery electric vehicle reduced by 19% compared with natural
gas vehicles, which is mainly because the battery pack of battery electric vehicle
occupies a part of the vehicle load capacity, and when the total life cycle carbon
emission is converted into the carbon emission per unit turnover, the load factor will
be reflected. Compared with diesel vehicles, the life cycle carbon emission per unit
turnover of natural gas vehicles decreased by 24%, while that of battery electric
vehicles decreased by only 6%.
The life cycle carbon emissions per unit turnover of fuel cell electric heavy-duty
tractors under different hydrogen production processes are shown in Fig. 3.56. As
mentioned above, at present, fuel cell electric vehicles have no advantage in life
cycle carbon emission reduction, mainly because in China, the hydrogen produc-
tion process from fossil fuels is dominated, but the life cycle carbon emission per
unit turnover of fuel cell electric light-duty trucks under the hydrogen production
scenarios including chlor-alkali hydrogen production and hydrogen production by
water electrolysis from renewable energy is lower than that of diesel vehicles.

Fig. 3.54 Total life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors

90 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.55 Life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of heavy-duty tractors

Fig. 3.56 Life cycle carbon emissions per unit turnover of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors
under different hydrogen production processes
3.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 91

Fig. 3.57 Vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty tractors

Vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty tractors of different fuel

types.
The vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty tractors of different
fuel types is shown in Fig. 3.57. Like other heavy-duty vehicles, the raw material
acquisition stage of heavy-duty tractors contributes most to the vehicle cycle carbon
emissions with a proportion of more than 50% by average. For new energy vehicles,
the carbon emission at this stage even accounts for more than 70% of the vehicle
cycle carbon emission. Tyre replacement is the second largest emission source of
vehicle cycle carbon emission for vehicles of all fuel types, with a proportion of
20–30%.
The carbon emission structure of heavy-duty tractors at the raw material acqui-
sition stage is shown in Fig. 3.58. Among the vehicles of all fuel types, the carbon
emission structures of vehicles powered by fossil fuels at the raw material acquisi-
tion stage are relatively similar, with more than 80% of the carbon emissions from
the acquisition and processing of part materials. While for new energy vehicles
including battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles, the battery and
fuel cell system are the second largest emission sources following part materials.
Specifically, the battery accounts for more than 30% of the carbon emissions at the
raw material acquisition stage of battery electric vehicles, while the fuel cell system
accounts for more than 25% of the carbon emissions at the raw material acquisition
stage of fuel cell electric vehicles.
Fuel cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty tractors of different fuel types.
The fuel cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty tractors of different fuel
types is shown in Fig. 3.59. Like other heavy-duty vehicles, the carbon emission in
the fuel use process dominates the fuel cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors
powered by fossil fuels with a proportion of more than 80%; the battery electric and
fuel cell electric vehicles produces zero carbon emission in the fuel use process, and
100% of the fuel cycle carbon emissions come from the upstream links of the fuel.
92 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.58 Carbon emission structure of heavy-duty tractors at raw material acquisition stage

Fig. 3.59 Fuel cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty tractors

3.2.2.4 Conclusion for Research on Life Cycle Carbon Emission

of Heavy-Duty Trucks

Unlike passenger vehicles, the electrification path of heavy-duty commercial

vehicles should be considered in combination with specific application scenarios.
For different application scenarios, different types of commercial vehicles are
deployed. For heavy-duty single-unit trucks, their electrification path is similar to
that of light-duty trucks. For heavy-duty dump trucks and heavy-duty tractors, at
present, the most advantageous fuel type for emission reduction is natural gas; and
3.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 93

in the future with the improvement of clean electricity, the emission reduction advan-
tages of battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles will be more and more
prominent.
Though the fuel cycle takes the dominant position in the life cycle carbon emis-
sions of heavy-duty trucks, automobile enterprises are still required to pay
certain attention to the vehicle cycle carbon emission reduction. The fuel cycle
accounts for 95% of the life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty trucks, but the
absolute value of vehicle cycle carbon emissions cannot be underestimated. Taking
the battery electric heavy-duty tractor as an example, its vehicle cycle carbon emis-
sion is as high as 98 tCO2 e. The emission reduction measures for the vehicle cycle
will also bring substantial emission reduction benefits to the enterprises.

3.2.3 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon

Emission of Buses

Buses of five fuel types are selected for the carbon emission study, namely diesel
bus, natural gas bus, diesel/electric plug-in hybrid electric bus, battery electric bus
and fuel cell electric bus, and for the plug-in hybrid electric bus, if the bus is only
powered by the diesel with plug-in charging not activated, the carbon emission is
converted from the fuel consumption. The bus models of all fuel types selected for
study in this section are all representative models of those fuel types with higher
sales in China in 2020. The basic parameters and information of the selected bus
models are shown in Table 3.6.

3.2.3.1 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Buses

of Different Fuel Types

(1) Research results of life cycle carbon emissions for buses of different fuel types
The total life cycle carbon emissions of representative bus of each fuel type are shown
in Fig. 3.60. The total life cycle carbon emissions of buses are directly related to the
curb weight and energy consumption per 100 km, and since the parameters of the

Table 3.6 Basic parameters and information of buses of different fuel types selected for the study
Fuel type Diesel Natural gas Plug-in hybrid Battery Fuel cell
Curb weight, kg 11,300 9800 12,300 12,650 9000
Number of seats 44 33 50 44 28
Life cycle mileage, km 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000
Energy consumption per 100 km 30 48 16 67 8
Unit of energy consumption L m3 L KWh Kg
94 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

selected buses are different, the comparison results are quite different. The ranking
of absolute value of total life cycle carbon emissions of selected buses from high to
low is as follows: fuel cell electric bus > natural gas bus > diesel bus > plug-in hybrid
electric bus > battery electric bus. As shown, the carbon emission of fuel cell electric
bus is the highest, which is because, though the fuel cell electric bus produces zero
carbon emission in the hydrogen use process, the hydrogen production from fossil
fuel dominates the hydrogen production industry in China, and will cause high carbon
emission. Specifically, for each 400,000 km of traveling, the carbon emission from
hydrogen production is far greater than that from oil, gas and electric energy. The life
cycle carbon emissions of diesel buses and natural gas buses differ little from each
other; The plug-in hybrid electric bus has a lower fuel consumption and thus a lower
life cycle carbon emission than the diesel bus; The life cycle carbon emission of the
battery electric buses is the lowest. For buses of each fuel type, the fuel cycle is the
main contributor of their life cycle carbon emissions, and the contribution of vehicle
cycle is very small. As for the vehicle cycle carbon emission, the battery electric
bus ranks first due to the use of heavy batteries; the vehicle cycle carbon emission
of fuel cell electric bus ranks second due to the use of hydrogen storage tanks as
well as batteries; however for buses with internal combustion engine system (diesel
and natural gas), the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emission in life cycle carbon
emission is not very high thanks to a simple structure.
The total life cycle carbon emissions of buses of different fuel types are converted
according to the number of seats under half load. The research results are shown in
Fig. 3.61. The ranking of carbon emission per unit turnover of selected buses from

Fig. 3.60 Total life cycle carbon emissions of buses

3.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 95

high to low is as follows: fuel cell electric bus > natural gas bus > diesel bus > battery
electric bus > plug-in hybrid electric bus, which is directly related to the total life
cycle carbon emissions and the number of seats. Among the selected models, the
fuel cell electric bus has a high total carbon emission and a small number of seats, so
their carbon emission per passenger capacity is far higher than that of buses of other
fuel types. The carbon emission per unit turnover of natural gas buses ranks second
due to the same reasons as the fuel cell electric buses. The plug-in hybrid electric bus
has a lower carbon emission per unit turnover than the battery electric bus, mainly
because the passenger vehiclerying capacity of plug-in hybrid electric bus is greater
than that of battery electric bus.
(1) Vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of buses of different fuel types

The vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of buses of different fuel types is shown
in Figs. 3.62 and 3.63. Herein, the vehicle cycle consists of raw material acquisition,
vehicle production, refrigerant escape, fluid replacement, tyre replacement and lead-
acid battery replacement. For buses of each fuel type, more than 70% of the vehicle
cycle carbon emissions come from raw material acquisition. The raw material acqui-
sition stage consists of part material, tyre, fluid, lead-acid battery, traction battery and
fuel cell. For battery electric buses, more than 40% of the carbon emissions at raw
material acquisition stage come from the batteries. For fuel cell electric buses, more
than 25% of carbon emissions at raw material acquisition stage come from fuel cell
systems (including electric stacks, hydrogen storage tanks and other components),
and 7.4% from batteries.

Fig. 3.61 Life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of buses
96 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.62 Vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of buses

Fig. 3.63 Carbon emission structure of buses at raw material acquisition stage

(2) Fuel cycle carbon emission structure of buses of different fuel types
The fuel cycle carbon emission structure of buses of different fuel types are shown
in Fig. 3.64. For battery electric buses and fuel cell electric buses, all of their fuel
cycle carbon emissions come from the fuel production process; For diesel buses and
plug-in hybrid electric buses, 83% of the fuel cycle carbon emissions come from the
fuel use process, and 17% from the fuel production process; For natural gas buses,
3.1% of their fuel cycle carbon emissions come from the fuel use process, and 96.7%
from the fuel production process.
3.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions … 97

Fig. 3.64 Fuel cycle carbon emission structure of buses

3.2.3.2 Conclusion for Research on Life Cycle Carbon Emission

of Buses

1. Electrification is an important technical path for carbon emission reduction

of buses. The battery electric buses produce zero carbon emissions in the use
process, but their vehicle cycle carbon emissions are higher than the buses of
other fuel types, which is mainly because the batteries used in the commercial
vehicles bring about high carbon emissions, and are larger so that the carrying
capacity is reduced and its advantage in carbon emission per unit turnover is not
as prominent as expected.
2. The plug-in hybrid electric bus boasts a good life cycle carbon emission
performance due to its low fuel consumption and strong carrying capacity.
At present when the nickel, cobalt and lithium resources are in shortage and
charging piles are insufficient, the plug-in hybrid electric bus, with lower carbon
emission and resource consumption, is an ideal transitional technical means;
3. The high life cycle carbon emission of fuel cell electric buses is mainly due
to the high proportion of hydrogen production from fossil fuels in China’s
hydrogen energy structure as well as the use of important carbon emis-
sion sources like fuel cell systems and batteries. Adopting relevant policies to
encourage the production and use of green hydrogen and estimating the substi-
tutions for high-carbon materials in the fuel cell system are important means to
make fuel cell electric buses create carbon emission reduction benefits.
4. Passenger capacity is an important factor affecting the life cycle carbon emis-
sion per unit turnover of buses. Optimizing the operation mode and improving
the passenger capacity of buses are important means to reduce their life cycle
carbon emissions per unit turnover.
98 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

3.3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions

of Enterprises

3.3.1 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions

of Passenger Vehicle Enterprises

The subsection, according to the accounting method described in 2.3, accounts for
the life cycle carbon emissions of 115 passenger vehicle enterprises, and finds that
the total life cycle carbon emission of passenger vehicles sold in 2021 is 750 million
tCO2 e, of which 99.4% is contributed by enterprises with an annual sales volume
of more than 10,000 vehicles. Due to the joint influence of single-vehicle life cycle
carbon emissions and sales volume, the total carbon emissions of passenger vehi-
cles sold in 2021 are significantly different between passenger vehicle enterprises.
Specifically. the total carbon emission of traditional automobile enterprises which
are dominated by traditional energy models and have a large sales volume are signifi-
cantly higher than those of new forces which are dominated by new energy models and
whose sales volume is now in the climbing period. For example, FAW-Volkswagen
Automotive Co., Ltd. has the highest total carbon emission due to its large sales
volume, and among the enterprises with similar sales volume, the enterprises with
lower average single-vehicle life cycle carbon emission have more advantages in the
total life cycle carbon emission.
As shown in Fig. 3.65, the Top 10 passenger vehicle enterprises with the
highest total life cycle carbon emissions in 2021 are FAW Volkswagen Co., Ltd.
(68.041 million tCO2 e), SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd. (52.039 million
tCO2 e), Zhejiang Geely Holding Group (51.071 million tCO2 e), SAIC General
Motors Co., Ltd. (50.422 million tCO2 e), Chongqing Changan Automobile Company
Limited. (46.77 million tCO2 e), Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company
(39.501 million tCO2 e), Great Wall Motor Company Limited (39.223 million tCO2 e),
SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd. (34.599 million tCO2 e), GAC Honda Auto-
mobile Co., Ltd. (29.428 million tCO2 e) and Dongfeng Honda Automobile Co., Ltd.
(29.013 million tCO2 e), accounted for 58.6% of the total life carbon emissions of
passenger vehicles sold in 2021.
There are also differences in the average single-vehicle life cycle carbon emis-
sions of passenger vehicles on sale between enterprises, which are ranging from 91.9
to 476.9 g CO2 e/km with an arithmetic average of 244.5 g CO2 e/km. Among the
enterprises, the average carbon emissions of enterprises dominated by new energy
vehicles are the lowest, while the carbon emissions of enterprises dominated by
conventional energy vehicles are higher. In order to reflect the representativeness,
the Top 10 passenger vehicle enterprises with annual sales of more than 100,000
vehicles and with the lowest average carbon emission are selected for this study,
which are, as shown in Fig. 3.66, Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (172.2 g CO2 e/km),
SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd. (201.2 g CO2 e/km), BYD Auto Co., Ltd.
(208.1 g CO2 e/km), Beijing Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd. (232.1 g CO2 e/km), FAW
3.3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Enterprises 99

Fig. 3.65 Top 10 enterprises in total life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles on sale in
2021

TOYOTA Motor Sales Co., Ltd. (236.0 g CO2 e/km), Dongfeng Nissan Passenger
Vehicle Company (237.7 g CO2 e/km), Dongfeng Yueda KIA Motors Co., Ltd.
(238.4 g CO2 e/km), SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Co., Ltd. (238.7 g CO2 e/km),
SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd. (239.2 g CO2 e/km) and GAC TOYOTA
Motor Co., Ltd. (239.5 g CO2 e/km). Among them, the single-vehicle life cycle
carbon emission of Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. is significantly lower than that of
other enterprises.
There are also differences in the average carbon emissions between different
models. According to the make and model characteristics, passenger vehicles sold in
2021 can be divided into 10 brands, including Chinese independent brand, Japanese
brand, German brand, American brand, Korean brand, JV brand, Swedish brand,
European-Czech brand, French brand and English brand (listed as per the sales
volume from high to low). JV independent brands mainly refer to the brands and
models which are developed based on the purchased or introduced technology
platforms of foreign products and whose intellectual property rights belong to the
domestic joint ventures, such as Everus of GAC Honda Automobile Co., Ltd., Baojun
of SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd., Venucia of Dongfeng Nissan Passenger
Vehicle Company and Sehol of Volkswagen (Anhui) Automotive Company Limited.
Swedish brand refers to the Volvo brand of Volvo Cars (Asia Pacific) Investment
Holdings Co., Ltd.; European-Czech brand refers to the Skoda brand of SAIC
100 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.66 Top 10 enterprises in average life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles on sale
in 2021 (enterprises with sales of more than 100,000 vehicles)

Volkswagen; English brand refers to the JLR brand of Chery Jaguar Land Rover
Automotive Co., Ltd.
The carbon emission per unit mileage of each brand is shown in Fig. 3.67, and
is ranging from 231.5CO2 e/km to 319.5 CO2 e/km. As shown, the carbon emission
per unit mileage of JV independent brands is the lowest, and that of the English
brand is the highest; the carbon emission per unit mileage of Korean and European-
Czech brands is relatively low, because most of their models on sale are passenger
vehicles of Level A0 and Level A with low carbon emission; the carbon emission
per unit mileage of Chinese independent brand is also relatively low, mainly because
the sales volume of battery electric passenger vehicles with low carbon emissions is
high; the carbon emission per unit mileage of Swedish and British brands is relatively
high, because most of their models on sale are passenger vehicles of Level B and
Level C with high curb weight, high fuel consumption and high carbon emission,
and the sales volume of battery electric passenger vehicles with low carbon emission
is small.
3.4 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Fleets 101

Fig. 3.67 Average life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles on sale of all brands in 2021

3.4 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions

of Fleets

3.4.1 Research on Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Passenger

Vehicle Fleet

3.4.1.1 Analysis on Passenger Vehicle Population Structure in China

Over the Years

For the purpose of this study, the passenger vehicle is classified into sedan, sport utility
vehicle (SUV), multi-purpose vehicle (MPV) and crossover passenger vehicle. Based
on the available data,6 the passenger vehicle population in China from 2012 to 2021
is obtained, as shown in Fig. 3.68. In terms of vehicle type, passenger vehicles in
China are mainly sedans, but the proportion of SUVs has increased rapidly: In 2021,
the proportion of sedans in China’s passenger vehicle population was decreased

6 The data of vehicle population is sourced from the China’s database of compulsory insurance
for vehicle traffic accident liability, which collects the relevant information of passenger cars
and commercial vehicles including population, vehicle type, fuel type, vehicle age, registration
area, energy consumption level and curb weight. For the convenience of calculation, the vehicle
population are screened based on key information such as fuel type, vehicle type and vehicle age.
102 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

by about 1.1% from the 2020 level to about 59.0%, but the proportion of SUVs
reached 29.86%, which is 2.02% higher than that in 2020, and more than 3.7 times
that is 2012; the proportion of MPVs and crossover passenger vehicles changed
little, i.e. from 7.2% and 4.9% in 2020 to 7.0% and 4.1% in 2021 respectively. In
terms of fuel type, fuel passenger vehicles still take a dominant position in China’s
passenger vehicle pollution, but the number of new energy passenger vehicles is
growing rapidly: In 2021, the passenger vehicle population in China increased to 230
million, which is more than 3 times that in 2012, and is expected to increase further
with a strong growth momentum. In the passenger vehicle population in 2021, the
gasoline passenger vehicle was still the main force with a proportion of about 95.9%,
which, however, decreases by 1.2% compared with 2020; the proportion of diesel
passenger vehicles was relatively small, and remained at about 0.2%; the proportion
of NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles increased slightly from about 0.5% in
2020 to about 0.7%; the population of new energy passenger vehicles, thanks to the
rapid development of battery electric passenger vehicles, increased rapidly by about
71.9% to about 6.455 million compared with 2020. In the population of new energy
passenger vehicles, the battery electric passenger vehicle takes a large share, which
was about 79.2% in 2021, and 75.8% higher than that in 2020; the proportion of plug-
in hybrid electric passenger vehicles was about 20.8%, with the population increased
by about 58.7% over 2020. The proportion of passenger vehicles of other fuel types
including natural gas, LPG and methanol in the passenger vehicle population changed
little and remained at about 0.4%.
Talking from regions, Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Zhejiang, Hebei
and Sichuan all have a passenger vehicle population of more than 10 million, as
shown in Fig. 3.69. In 2021, Guangdong ranked first in China with a passenger
vehicle population up to 22.088 million, followed by Shandong with a passenger
vehicle population of 21.011 million, and then by Jiangsu, Henan, Zhejiang, Hebei
and Sichuan with a passenger vehicle population of 17.174 million, 15.201 million,
15.082 million, 14.694 million and 11.097 million respectively; the passenger
vehicle population in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing (the four munic-
ipalities directly under the central government) were 5.237 million, 3.332 million,
4.811 million and 4.316 million respectively. Only in Shanghai, the proportion of new
energy passenger vehicles in all passenger vehicles exceeded 10% and reached about
12.5%, and other provinces with a relative high proportion of new energy passenger
vehicles are Beijing, Hainan, Tianjin, Guangdong and Zhejiang, which are 8.7%,
8.0%, 6.6%, 4.5% and 4.0% respectively. In terms of the total population of new
energy passenger vehicles, that in eastern and southern regions is higher. Specifically
in 2021, Guangdong ranked first with a population of new energy passenger vehi-
cles up to 989,000 (about 70.3% are battery electric passenger vehicles), followed
by Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shandong, Henan, Beijing and Jiangsu with a population
of new energy passenger vehicles of 604,000, 601,000, 514,000, 488,000, 443,000
and 402,000 respectively, of which Shanghai boasts the highest proportion of plug-
in hybrid electric passenger vehicles (i.e. 51.7%), and Beijing boasts the highest
proportion of battery electric passenger vehicles (i.e. 99.8%).
3.4 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Fleets 103

Fig. 3.68 Passenger vehicle population in China from 2012 to 2021

At present, the per capita passenger vehicle population in China is low. As shown
in Fig. 3.70, the passenger vehicle population per thousand people in China was about
164 in 2021, which is far lower than that in developed countries such as European
countries, the United States and Japan, but also reflects that China still embraces
a large room for the growth of passenger vehicle population. At present, the Top
3 regions in terms of passenger vehicle population per thousand people in China
are Tianjin, Beijing and Zhejiang with a value of 240, 239 and 233 respectively. In
addition, the passenger vehicle population per thousand people in Shandong, Inner
Mongolia, Jiangsu, Hebei, Shanghai, Shaanxi, Guangdong, Liaoning and Jilin is
higher than the national average.

3.4.1.2 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Passenger

Vehicle Fleet

In 2021, the total life cycle carbon emission of passenger vehicle fleets in China
reached 700 million tCO2 e, with the ratio of fuel cycle carbon emission to vehicle
cycle carbon emission being about 3:1, as shown in Fig. 3.71. Compared with 2020,
the total life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicle fleets in China increased
104 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.69 Passenger vehicle population in various regions of China in 2021

by about 20 million tCO2 e, with fuel cycle carbon emission and vehicle cycle carbon
emission increased by about 10 million tCO2 e respectively; the proportion of vehicle
cycle carbon emission in the total life cycle carbon emission increased, which is
mainly due to the large increase in passenger vehicle production, especially the
production of new energy passenger vehicles. From the perspective of fuel type, in
the total life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles in 2021, the contributions
of gasoline passenger vehicles was about 96%, that of battery electric passenger
vehicles was 2%, that of NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles and plug-in hybrid
electric passenger vehicles was about 1% respectively, and that of diesel passenger
vehicles and passenger vehicles of other fuel types was less than 1%. Such a layout
is mainly due to a large proportion of gasoline passenger vehicles in the passenger
vehicle population. In 2021, the fuel use process (PTW, Pump To Wheel) was the
main contributor to the fuel cycle carbon emission of passenger vehicles in China.
Specifically, in the fuel cycle carbon emission of passenger vehicles in 2021, the
proportion of carbon emission from fuel production (WTP, Well To Pump) was
about 17%, and the proportion of carbon emission from fuel use was about 83%. The
gasoline passenger vehicle is the main source of the fuel cycle carbon emission, and
3.4 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Fleets 105

Fig. 3.70 Per capita passenger vehicle population in various regions of China in 2021

accounts for 97% of the total fuel cycle carbon emissions of the passenger vehicle
fleet; the NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicle, plug-in hybrid electric passenger
vehicle and battery electric passenger vehicles in total only account for about 1% of
the total fuel cycle carbon emissions of the passenger vehicle fleet.
In 2021, the production of part materials accounted for a large proportion in the
vehicle cycle carbon emission of passenger vehicles in China. As for the vehicle cycle
carbon emission, the carbon emission in the maintenance stage is mainly caused by
replacement of tyres, batteries and other components, refrigerant escape and other
factors. It is calculated that in the vehicle cycle carbon emission, the carbon emission
from production and processing of vehicle parts and materials accounts for 63%, the
carbon emission from maintenance accounts for about 26%, and the carbon emission
from vehicle production accounts for 6%. It is worth noting that the carbon emission
from battery production accounts for about 6%, which is calculated only with the
NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles
and battery electric passenger vehicles considered, but is equivalent to that of carbon
emission produced in production links of all passenger vehicles in that year.
106 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.71 Composition of life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicle fleets in 20217

The life cycle carbon emission of passenger vehicles in China shows a regional
distribution characteristic of high in the East and low in the west. This study,
according to the passenger vehicle population, vehicle fuel type, vehicle energy
consumption level, regional power factor8 and other different characteristics among
regions, calculates China’s regional distribution of life cycle carbon emission of
passenger vehicles in 2021. For life cycle carbon emission of passenger vehicles
in China in 2021, high carbon emission of passenger vehicles mainly occurs in the
eastern coastal areas, especially the economically developed regions such as Beijing
Tianjin, Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, while the total carbon
emission in the western and northeast regions is low.
Regions with high passenger vehicle population face greater pressure on carbon
emission reduction. As shown in Fig. 3.72, Guangdong, as the region with the highest
passenger vehicle population in China, produces the most carbon emissions. In
2021, the total life cycle carbon emission of passenger vehicle fleets in Guang-
dong reached about 70 million tCO2 e, followed by Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang,
Henan, Hebei and Sichuan with a total life cycle carbon emission of 60 million

7 Note: On the left are the life cycle stages and their contribution to the total carbon emission, and
on the right are the passenger cars of different fuel types and the proportion of their life cycle carbon
emission in the total carbon emission.
8 Refer to Annex VI for electric power structure of each region.
3.4 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Fleets 107

tCO2 e, 53 million tCO2 e, 48 million tCO2 e, 46 million tCO2 e, 41 million tCO2 e

and 34 million tCO2 e respectively. The total carbon emission of passenger vehi-
cles in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing (namely the four municipalities
directly under the central government) are 16 million tCO2 e, 11 million tCO2 e, 18
million tCO2 e and 14 million tCO2 e respectively. These data shows that at present,
the carbon emission of passenger vehicles in various regions of China is basically
proportional to the passenger vehicle population of the corresponding region, which
is mainly because the passenger vehicle population in regions is still dominated by
conventional fuel vehicles, and there is little difference in vehicle energy consump-
tion between different regions. If the population of new energy passenger vehicles
continues to increase, the advantages of regional electric power structure will be
somehow reflected in the total carbon emission of passenger vehicles.
As for the per capita carbon emission of passenger vehicles in various regions
of China, there are great difference between regions. As shown in Fig. 3.73, the
regions with high per capita life cycle carbon emission of passenger vehicles are

Fig. 3.72 Total carbon emissions of passenger vehicles in various regions of China in 2021
108 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

mainly the regions with high per capita passenger vehicle usage. Among them, the per
capita carbon emission of passenger vehicles in Tianjin, Beijing, Zhejiang, Shanghai,
Jiangsu, Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, Hebei and Shanxi are above the
national average. Specifically, the per capita carbon emission of passenger vehicles
in Tianjin, Beijing, Zhejiang and Shanghai are 0.77 tCO2 e, 0.75 tCO2 e, 0.74 tCO2 e
and 0.72 tCO2 e respectively, which are twice that in Guangxi, Qinghai and Tibet.
The analysis above shows that the total life cycle carbon emissions of passenger
vehicles in China are gradually rising and are mainly contributed by the fuel cycle, and
that the carbon emission in economically developed regions is higher. The growing
life cycle carbon emission is mainly resulted from the continued increase of passenger
vehicle population, and the high proportion of fuel cycle carbon emission in life cycle
carbon emission is mainly caused by the unchanged high proportion of conventional
fuel passenger vehicles in the passenger vehicle population. Therefore, vigorously
promoting the development of new energy passenger vehicles without prejudice the
development of passenger vehicle industry is an effective way to achieve carbon
emission reduction of passenger vehicles.

Fig. 3.73 China’s regional distribution of per capita carbon emission of passenger vehicles in 2021
3.4 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Fleets 109

3.4.2 Research on Life Cycle Carbon Emissions

of Commercial Vehicle Fleet

3.4.2.1 Analysis on Commercial Vehicle Population Structure in China

Over the Years

The commercial vehicle population in China is increasing, but in 2021, its increase
stagnated compared with 2020. The commercial vehicles covered in this study mainly
include passenger transportation vehicles such as coaches and buses, and freight
vehicles such as light-duty trucks, single-unit trucks, dump trucks, tractors (with
the data referenced from the same source as passenger vehicles), and do not include
special vehicles such as cleaning vehicles, fire engines and escort vehicles due to lack
of basic data. As shown in Fig. 3.74, the commercial vehicle population in China
was about 30 million in 2021, which is almost the same as that in 2020 due to the
decrease of commercial vehicle sales in 2021. The commercial vehicle population is
dominated by medium/heavy-duty trucks (in 2020, the population of medium/heavy-
duty trucks was 15.59 million), followed by light-duty trucks with a population
of 11.77 million. With the rapid development of public transport means such as
railways, ships and subways in China, the population of intercity coaches and city
buses decreased somehow, which were 1.760 million and 0.85 million respectively in
2021. From the perspective of fuel type, the new energy is less applied to commercial
vehicles except buses. In 2021, China’s heavy-duty trucks are mainly diesel heavy-
duty trucks with a proportion of more than 98%, and only a small part of them are
natural gas heavy-duty trucks, i.e. 1%; the light-duty trucks are mainly gasoline light-
duty trucks with a proportion of 73%, followed by diesel light-duty trucks with a
proportion of about 23%; the intercity coaches are mainly diesel coaches and gasoline
coaches with a proportion of 65% and 30% respectively. The bus electrification has
proceeded at a fast speed, and in 2021, the proportion of battery electric buses in
China reached 40%, and the proportions of natural gas buses and NOVC hybrid
electric bus increased to 10% and 8% respectively.
The truck population in the eastern coastal areas of China is higher. As shown
in Fig. 3.75, the truck population in Shandong, Guangdong and Hebei is high up to
2 million, and that in Henan, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui and Sichuan also exceeds 1
million, which demonstrates that the truck population is closely related to economic
activities. From the perspective of fuel type, the diesel truck takes a large share in
all regions with an average of about 65%, and especially in Shanghai, the proportion
of diesel trucks in the total truck population is up to 88%. At present, the promotion
of new energy trucks is generally slow in various regions. In 2021, the proportion of
battery electric trucks was highest in Beijing, i.e. 3.8%.
The population of buses and coaches is relatively high in densely populated areas.
As shown in Fig. 3.76, in 2021, the population of buses and buses in Guangdong and
Jiangsu exceeded 0.2 million, and that in Shandong, Zhejiang, Beijing, Liaoning,
Henan, Hubei and Hunan also exceeded 0.1 million. Compared with trucks, the
proportion of new energy coaches and trucks in all regions is generally high with
110 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.74 Commercial vehicle population in China from 2012 to 2021

an average of 16.8%. In all regions, the proportion of electric coaches and buses is
highest in Guangdong (i.e. 31%), and lowest in Tibet (i.e. only 3.9%).

3.4.2.2 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions

of Commercial Vehicle Fleet

In 2021, the life cycle carbon emission of commercial vehicle fleets in China
decreased due to a slower growing commercial vehicle population. As shown in
Fig. 3.77, in 2021, the life cycle carbon emission of commercial vehicle fleets in
China was 500 million tCO2 e, 81% of which are contributed by fuel cycle, and
another 19% by vehicle cycle. Due to the decrease of commercial vehicle sales,
the growth of commercial vehicle population slowed down, and the total life cycle
carbon emission decreased by 30 million tCO2 e compared with 2020, of which the
fuel cycle carbon emission decreased by 10 million tCO2 e and the vehicle cycle
carbon emission decreased by 20 million tCO2 e. From the perspective of carbon
emission structure, the carbon emission of commercial vehicles in China is mainly
contributed by diesel vehicles, which account for 86% of the total carbon emission of
commercial vehicles. The contributions of gasoline commercial vehicles and natural
3.4 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Fleets 111

Fig. 3.75 Truck population in various regions of China in 2021

gas commercial vehicles are relatively low, with a proportion of about 7% and 5%
respectively, and the proportion of carbon emission of battery electric vehicles is
only about 2%. The carbon emission of commercial vehicles are mainly from the
direct fuel combustion. Specifically at present, 81% of the carbon emissions of the
commercial vehicle fleet come from the fuel cycle, and in the fuel cycle, more than
80% of the carbon emissions come from the direct fuel combustion, and only 18%
come from the upstream fuel production. The total vehicle cycle carbon emissions of
commercial vehicles are mainly generated by the acquisition, processing and produc-
tion of auto materials, with a proportion of about 60%. Maintenance, including fluid
replacement, tyre replacement and other operations, is the second largest emission
source with a proportion of about 38%. At present, the proportion of new energy
commercial vehicles in China is still relatively small, and the carbon emission from
battery production accounts for only about 1%, which, however, is equivalent to the
total carbon emission from vehicle production.
112 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.76 Population of coaches and buses in various regions of China in 2021

As for the regional distribution, the carbon emissions of commercial vehicles

are mainly concentrated in economically active areas. China’s regional distribu-
tion of total carbon emissions of commercial vehicles in 2021 is similar to that of
passenger vehicles, that is, the carbon emissions mainly occur in Beijing, Tianjin,
Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing region and other
regions are densely populated, economically developed and commercially active,
mainly because these regions have high demand for passenger transport and freight
transport.
Generally, the total life cycle carbon emission of commercial vehicles is higher
in eastern China. For the convenience of calculation, the life cycle carbon emissions
of commercial vehicles are attributed to the regions where the commercial vehicles
are used. As shown in Fig.3.78, in 2021, Shandong ranked first with a total carbon
emission high up to 38 million tCO2 e, and the total carbon emissions in Hebei,
Guangdong, Henan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui and Sichuan are also high, which are
3.4 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Fleets 113

Fig. 3.77 Composition of life cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicle fleets in 20219

34 million tCO2 e, 32 million tCO2 e, 25 million tCO2 e, 19 million tCO2 e, 19 million

tCO2 e, 19 million tCO2 e and 18 million tCO2 e respectively.
Commercial vehicles, though small in population, produce the same amount of
total carbon emissions as passenger vehicles, with the fuel cycle carbon emission
equivalent to that of passenger vehicles, but the single-vehicle carbon emission far
higher than that of passenger vehicles. The commercial vehicles are diversified in
vehicle type, and their carbon emissions vary greatly from vehicle type to vehicle
type. The carbon emission from passenger transport vehicles is low, mainly because
the passenger transport vehicle has a small population, and most of them are NEVs.
In most regions, the proportion of new energy vehicles in new sales is nearly 50%.
The carbon emissions of commercial vehicle fleets mainly come from the fuel cycle
of medium/heavy-duty trucks, mainly because these trucks are less applied with new
energy and feature heavy load, high fuel consumption and long range, while fuel use
is a main source of carbon emission.

9Note: On the left are the life cycle stages and their contribution to the total carbon emission, and
on the right are the commercial vehicles of different fuel types and the proportion of their life cycle
carbon emission in the total carbon emission.
114 3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.78 Total carbon emissions of commercial vehicles in various regions of China in 2021
Chapter 4
Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation
Pathways of Automotive Industry
for Carbon Neutrality

4.1 Overall Transformation Pathway Framework

4.1.1 Transformation Pathways

Automobile, transportation and energy constitute a carbon chain in which they are
mutually supported and constrained. Traffic demand will affect the vehicle popula-
tion and energy consumption in the transport sector and thereafter affect the carbon
emissions, while the structure and level of the final energy consumption of vehicles
will in turn affect the carbon emissions in the energy and transport sectors. Green
energy application determines the carbon emissions of vehicle manufacturing at the
upstream and also the carbon emissions of the road transport sector. The realization
of carbon neutrality goal of the automotive industry is not possible with a single
emission reduction path only, and we need to fully explore the emission reduction
potential and coupling effects of various paths.
Electrification has always been referred to in the carbon neutrality actions of all
major automobile enterprises. However, since most of electric energy used in China is
from thermal power generation, the focus of carbon emission of new energy vehicles
has shifted to battery production and electricity supply. Therefore, building an energy
supply network based on clean electricity is of great significance to the achievement
of carbon neutrality goal in the automotive industry as it realize zero carbon emission
from the source.
What we should do is to realize low-carbon vehicle manufacturing based on a
clean power grid. In the energy consumption structure of vehicle manufacturing, the
electric energy accounts for more than 60%, as battery manufacturing processes such
as baking, drying, capacity splitting and forming are highly electricity consuming.
Therefore, the deployment of a clean power grid is critical to the carbon reduction
in the manufacturing stage.

© China Machine Press 2023 115

Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd. et al.,
China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022),
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7502-8_4
116 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

In the automobile manufacturing stage, the material structure tends to change from
a steel-based simple structure to a comprehensive structure integrated with steel,
aluminum, all-aluminum body, plastic composites and magnesium alloys. Automo-
bile manufacturing process is so complex that coordination between low-carbon
production and resource allocation is very difficult. Therefore, application of new
information technologies such as big data, cloud computing and artificial intelligence
will empower the production digital transformation including carbon data quantifi-
cation, carbon data optimization and intelligent control, and is an essential path for
the low-carbon development of the automotive industry.
In terms of transportation, we should draw experience from well-performing coun-
tries in the world, and focus on the building of intelligent transportation to optimize
travel space and the allocation of right of way. In addition, the sharing economy
concept, among all the drivers of carbon emission reduction, will help improve
the efficiency of the social economy, and through the change of the organization
of economic activities, it enables greater support from social groups than a single
family and thus shows greater potential for carbon emission reduction. Therefore,
promoting the service experience of whole green shared mobility chain is also a main
way to reduce the carbon emission in transport sector.
Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology allows for near zero
carbon emissions in power industry, steel industry and other industries to effectively
reduce the life cycle GHG emissions of vehicles related to power and steel, and it can
offset some of the CO2 of which emission is difficult to be reduced in the automotive
industry, and ultimately achieve the carbon neutrality goal of the automotive industry.
To sum up, this chapter, with carbon neutrality of the automotive industry as focus,
puts forward from different perspectives ten transition paths, including clean elec-
tricity; vehicle electrification; fuel decarbonization; low-carbon material; produc-
tion digitalization; transportation intelligence; shared mobility; resource recycling;
carbon capture, utilization and storage; and product ecologicalization (as shown in
Fig. 4.1), sets up three scenarios namely reference scenario, low-carbon scenario
and enhanced low-carbon scenario, and then fully discusses the carbon emission
reduction potential of different paths under different scenarios.

Fig. 4.1 Ten transformation paths for carbon neutrality of the automotive industry
4.1 Overall Transformation Pathway Framework 117

4.1.2 Scenario Setting

In order to evaluate the carbon emission reduction effects of different paths on

passenger vehicle fleets, this study, based on a series of authoritative reports, industry
information, academic research and internal analysis, sets up three low-carbon
emission reduction scenarios (namely, reference scenario, low-carbon scenario and
enhanced low-carbon scenario) and their respective carbon emission reduction
parameters, and then through the calculation and analysis based on the passenger
vehicle fleet life cycle carbon emission model, assesses the single-vehicle life cycle
carbon emission intensity of passenger vehicles, the total life cycle carbon emis-
sion of the passenger vehicle fleet, and the change of the ratio between the fuel cycle
carbon emission and life cycle emission under different scenarios. For each scenarios,
the eight emission reduction measures including clean electricity, vehicle electrifica-
tion, alternative fuel, material efficiency, vehicle production energy efficiency, battery
carbon emission, vehicle energy consumption efficiency and consumption mode are
mainly considered in this study as affecting factors.

4.1.2.1 Reference Scenarios

The reference scenarios are set based on the current situation in China, in which
the change trend of relevant parameters is close to the historical change trend, and
the annual change rate of parameters is relatively moderate. In this scenario, the
proportion of power generation by non-fossil energies will gradually increase, and
is expected to reach about 45% in 2030 and 94% in 2060; the proportion of vehicle
electrification will increase steadily, and the sale of conventional fuel vehicles is
expected to be banned in 2060; the sales volume of FCEVs will gradually increase
and then maintain at a certain proportion in the newly sold vehicles; the energy
consumption structure of key materials will be gradually optimized; the production
energy efficiency and energy consumption efficiency of vehicles will be gradually
improved; the proportion of recycled materials will increase steadily year by year;
and the annual mileage traveled by the vehicle will remain unchanged.

4.1.2.2 Low-Carbon Scenario

The low-carbon scenario is based on the reference scenarios, in which the annual
change rate of various emission reduction parameters increases to a certain extent. In
this scenario, the proportion of power generation by non-fossil energies will increase
greatly year by year, and is expected to reach about 51% in 2030 and 96% in 2060; the
proportion of vehicle electrification will increase rapidly, and the sale of conventional
fuel vehicles is expected to be banned in 2050; the sales volume of FCEVs will
gradually increase and then maintain at a certain proportion in the newly sold vehicles;
the energy consumption structure of key materials will be quickly optimized; the
118 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

production energy efficiency and energy consumption efficiency of vehicles will

be improved greatly year by year; the proportion of recycled materials will increase
quickly year by year; and the annual mileage traveled by the vehicle will drop slightly.

4.1.2.3 Enhanced Low-Carbon Scenario

The enhanced low-carbon scenario is the most aggressive scenario, in which the
relevant emission reduction parameters are set at the maximum value, and the annual
change rate of each parameter increases significantly. In this scenario, the proportion
of power generation by non-fossil energies will increase fastest year by year, and is
expected to reach about 52% in 2030 and 97% in 2060; the proportion of vehicle
electrification will increase substantially, and the sale of conventional fuel vehicles is
expected to be banned in 2035; the sales volume of FCEVs will gradually increase and
then maintain at a certain proportion in the newly sold vehicles; the energy structure of
key materials will be quickly optimized; the production energy efficiency of vehicles
will be improved substantially year by year and the energy consumption efficiency of
vehicles will be improved greatly year by year; the proportion of recycled materials
will increase substantially year by year; and the annual mileage traveled by the
vehicle will drop heavily.

4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality

4.2.1 Path 1: Clean Electricity

Electric power is an important part for the implementation of carbon peak and carbon
neutrality goals and the realization of energy low-carbon transformation. The time
left for China to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals is short, and the
task is arduous. Developed economies such as the European Union have realized
carbon emission peak, and enjoy a transition period of 50–70 years from carbon
peak to carbon neutrality. While for China, the CO2 emission is very high, and there
are only 30 years left to move from carbon peak to carbon neutrality, making the
task more formidable. With the deepening of low-carbon transformation, the power
industry, which connects industries, buildings, transportation, communications and
other sector, has become a supporting platform for the low-carbon transformation
of economy and society. Meanwhile, the power system itself is also undergoing
profound structural adjustment, i.e. from a “fire based” high-carbon development
model to a low-carbon development model based on new energies such as wind
energy and PV energy, and a new power system is gradually forming.
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 119

4.2.1.1 Status-Quo of Power Industry Low-Carbon Transformation

(1) Electricity consumption, production and supply

In 2020, the electricity consumption in China was increased by 3.2% over the previous
year to 7521.4 billion kW (during the period of “13th Five-Year Plan”, the electricity
consumption increased at an average annual growth rate of 5.7%); and the per capita
electricity consumption was 5331 kWh/person, with an increase of 145 kWh/person
over the previous year.
By the end of 2020, the total installed power generation capacity in China was
increased by 9.6% from the level of previous year to 2202.04 million kW, including
370.28 million kW from hydropower (31.49 million kW from pumped storage
hydropower); 1246.24 million kW from thermal power (1079.12 million kW from
coal power and 99.72 million kW from gas power); 49.89 million kW from nuclear
power; 281.65 million kW from grid-connected wind power; and 253.56 million kW
from grid-connected solar power. The installed power generation capacity in China
from 1978 to 2020 is shown in Fig. 4.2.
In 2020, the total power generation in China, with an increase of 4.1% over
the previous year and a growth rate of 0.7% lower than that of the previous
year, reached 7626.4 billion kWh, including 1355.3 billion kWh from hydropower
(33.5 billion kWh from pumped storage hydropower); 5177 billion kWh from
thermal power (4629.6 billion kWh from coal power and 252.5 billion kWh from
natural gas power); 366.2 billion kWh from nuclear power; 466.5 billion kWh from
grid-connected wind power; and 261.1 billion kWh from grid-connected solar power.
The power generation in China from 1978 to 2020 is shown in Fig. 4.3 .

Fig. 4.2 Installed power generation capacity in China from 1978 to 2020. *Note Data and opinions
are selected from China Electricity Council
120 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

Fig. 4.3 Power generation in China from 1978 to 2020

(2) Green development of power industry.

By the end of 2020, the installed capacity of non-fossil power generation in China
was 985.66 million kW, accounting for 44.8% of the total installed power generation
capacity with an increase of 18.2% over 2005; about 950 million kW of installed
capacity of coal-fired power generation have reached ultra-low emission limits,
accounting for 88% of the total in China. In 2020, the non-fossil power generation
was 2585 billion kWh, accounting for 33.9% of the total in China with an increase
of 14.7% over 2005. In 2019, the proportion of electric energy in China’s total final
energy consumption was 26%, which is 17% higher than the world average. From
2016 to 2019, the cumulative newly-increased electricity consumption from elec-
trical energy substitution, which is mainly concentrated in such important sectors as
clean heating, industrial (agricultural) manufacturing, transportation, power supply
and consumption, and household electrification, was about 598.9 billion kWh,
contributing 38.5% to the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society.
In 2020, the standard coal consumption for electricity supply of thermal power
plants of 6000 kW and above nationwide was 304.9 g/kWh with a decrease of
1.5 g/kWh over the previous year; the service power consumption rate of power
plants with a capacity of 6000 kW and above was 4.65% with a decrease of 0.02%
from the previous year; the transmission loss rate was 5.60% with a decrease of 0.33%
from the previous year; the emissions of dust, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide from
power generation were about 155,000 t, 780,000 t and 874,000 t respectively, with a
decrease of 15.1%, 12.7% and 6.3% respectively from the previous year; the emis-
sions of dust, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides per unit thermal power generation
were 0.032 g/kWh, 0.160 g/kWh and 0.179 g/kWh respectively, with a decrease of
0.006 g/kWh, 0.027 g/kWh and 0.016 g/kWh respectively from the previous year.
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 121

Fig. 4.4 CO2 emission intensity of power generation from 2005 to 2020

In 2020, the CO2 emission per unit thermal power generation and CO2 emission
per unit power generation in China were about 832 g/kWh and 565 g/kWh, decreasing
by 20.6% and 34.1% respectively from 2005. Take 2005 as the base year, from 2006
to 2020, the power industry has achieved emission reduction of about 18.53 billion
tons by developing non-fossil energies, reducing the standard coal consumption for
power supply of thermal power plants of 6000 KW and above in China and reducing
transmission loss rate, whose contributions to the CO2 emission reduction are 62%,
36%, and 2.6% respectively [1].
The CO2 emission intensity of power generation in 2005–2020 is shown in
Fig. 4.4, and the CO2 emission reduction effect from different measures in 2006–2020
is shown in Fig. 4.5.

4.2.1.2 Research on Achievement of Carbon Peak and Carbon

Neutrality in Power Industry

The new dual-cycle development pattern drives the continuous growth of electricity
consumption, the transformation from old kinetic energies to new kinetic energies
and the decline of the growth rate of traditional electricity consumption industry,
and the high-tech equipment manufacturing industry and modern service industry
will become the main force driving the growth of electricity consumption. New-
type urbanization will promote the rigid growth of electricity demand. The energy
transformation shows an obvious trend of electrification, and the potential of electric
energy substitution is huge. It is estimated with such factors as the improvement
of energy conservation awareness and energy efficiency considered that, the total
electricity consumption in China will reach 9.5 trillion kWh, 11.3 trillion kWh and
122 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

Fig. 4.5 CO2 emission reduction measures from 2006 to 2020

12.6 trillion kWh in 2025, 2030 and 2035 respectively, with the average annual
growth rate during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, “15th Five-Year Plan” period
and “16th Five-Year Plan” period being 4.8%, 3.6% and 2.2% respectively. It is also
estimated that the maximum electricity load in China will reach 1.63 billion kW,
2.01 billion kW and 2.26 billion kW in 2025, 2030 and 2035 respectively, with the
average annual growth rate during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, “15th Five-
Year Plan” period and “16th Five-Year Plan” period being 5.1%, 4.3% and 2.4%
respectively. In a word, China will face a long-term climbing in electricity demand.
During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, 6 nuclear power generation units and
70 million kW of installed new energy power generation capacity are expected to
be increased by average every year, and it is expected that by 2025, the installed
capacity of hydropower generation, nuclear power generation, wind power generation
and solar power generation will reach 435 million kW (including 65 million kW
of pumped storage power), 70 million kW, 400 million kW and 500 million kW
respectively. Since new energy only has an electric power balance capacity of 10–
15%, 190 million kW of installed capacity of coal-fired power generation is required
to be increased during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period to ensure the security of
power supply and meet the requirements of real-time electric power balance.
During the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, 8–10 nuclear power generation units
and 120 million kW of installed new energy power generation capacity are expected
to be increased by average every year, and it is expected that the installed capacity
of coal-fired power generation will peak around 2030 and the carbon emission of the
power industry will peak in 2028. During the “16th Five-Year Plan” period, electric
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 123

vehicles is expected to be widely participated in power system regulation, further

supporting the development of new energy on a larger scale; the installed new energy
power generation capacity is expected to increase by 200 million kW every year,
and the development pace of nuclear power is expected to remain unchanged; the
low-carbon contribution rates of power generation from clean energies such as new
energy, nuclear energy and hydro-energy will reach 58%, 20% and 22% respectively,
and the carbon emission of the power industry will remain constant with a steady
decline.
The construction costs of nuclear power, new energy and energy storage facilities
will, with the scale development and technology advancement, decline at a faster
speed. However, as new energy is a power source with low energy density, more
installed new energy power generation capacity in larger scale is required to meet
the requirements of power supply, which therefore drives the substantial increase
in the annual investment to power supply and energy storage facilities. Specifically,
it is estimated that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the “15th Five-Year
Plan” period and the “16th Five-Year Plan” period, the annual investments in power
supply will reach 634 billion yuan, 736 billion yuan and 830 billion yuan respectively
(which are only 358.8 billion yuan, 383.1 billion yuan and 352.4 billion yuan during
the “11th Five-Year Plan” period, the “12th Five-Year Plan” period and the “13th
Five-Year Plan” period respectively). Compared with 2020, the power generation
cost will increase by 14.6% in 2025, 24.0% in 2030 and 46.6% in 2035.
Significant technology innovations speed up the realization carbon peaking and
carbon neutrality. Major breakthroughs have been made in carbon–neutral gases and
liquid fuels including hydrogen, ammonia and hydrocarbons for long-term electricity
storage or power generation, enabling substitution of thermal power generation units
in a wider scope, increasing the system moment of inertia, and ensuring the stable
operation of the large power grid. Electric power production has entered a low-carbon
or zero-carbon development stage with carbon capture and forestry carbon sink
adopted as supplements to achieve carbon neutrality in the power industry. For this
purpose, it is required to take new power system as the basic platform, and promote the
innovation of green and low-carbon technologies such as ultra-high voltage transmis-
sion technology, smart grid technology, long-term new energy storage technology,
hydrogen energy utilization technology and carbon capture technology.

4.2.1.3 Path Implementation

(1) Building a diversified energy supply system

Adhere to both centralized and distributed deployment to comprehensively promote

the large-scale development of wind and solar power generation; actively promote the
construction of large hydropower bases in the basin of major rivers in the southwest;
develop nuclear power actively, safely and orderly, and build natural gas peak shaving
power stations according to local conditions; in accordance with the principle of
“controlling the increment and optimizing the stock”, give full play to the role of coal
124 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

power in supporting the power supply and expand coal power scale appropriately;
develop biomass power generation according to local conditions and promote the
distributed energy development.
(2) Giving full play to the role of basic platform of power grid
Optimize the construction of main grid structure of the power grid, build a number of
new cross-region or cross-province power transmission channels, build an advanced
intelligent distribution network, and improve the ability to optimize the allocation of
resources; support some regions to take the lead in hitting the carbon peak.
(3) Vigorously improving the level of electrification
Deepen the electrification upgrading in the industrial sector, vigorously improve the
level of electrification in the transport sector, actively promote the electrification in
the construction sector, and accelerate the construction of rural electrification upgrade
projects.
(4) Promoting the efficient and cooperative utilization of source, grid and load
Take multiple measures to improve the system regulation capacity and the response
level of power demand side; promote the integration of source, network, load and
storage and the complementary development of multiple energies, and speed up the
digital transformation and intelligent upgrading of power system.
(5) Vigorously promoting technological innovation
Promote the leapfrog development of new energy storage technologies such as
pumped storage, hydrogen storage, battery energy storage, solid-state batteries,
lithium sulfur batteries, and metal air batteries promote the wide application of
low-carbon power generation technologies in the iterative upgrading of smart grid
technology, and strengthen the innovation of forward-looking carbon abatement
technology.
(6) Strengthening electric power security awareness
Strengthen the identification to risks brought by the randomness and intermittency of
new energy power output to the power supply security, the risks brought by the access
of power electronic equipment, and the risks caused by technological innovation;
strengthen the construction of emergency support system to prevent major risks of
power security.
(7) Building a sound market mechanism
Give full play to the role of carbon market in low-cost carbon reduction, accel-
erate the construction of a unified national power market, and continue to deepen
the construction of the power market; promote the cooperative development of the
national carbon market and power market.
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 125

4.2.2 Path 2: Vehicle Electrification

4.2.2.1 Development of NEV Industry in the World

Carbon emissions from transportation account for about 1/4 of the global energy
related carbon emissions [2], and thus decarbonization in the transport sector is a
key for the world to achieve sustainable development and cope with climate change.
For this purpose, the transformation from ICE vehicle to electric vehicle is one of
the most obvious and direct ways of energy transformation of the transport sector.
On the COP26, six multinational automobile enterprises, which are BYD, Ford,
GM, JLR, Mercedes Benz and Volvo, signed a statement on zero-emission cars and
trucks and promised to achieve 100% zero-emission vehicle sales in the leading
markets by 2035, and worldwide by 2040, which is another major movement
following the “global vehicle electrification initiative” in 2020 (the cumulative sales
of electric passenger vehicles exceeded 10 million, and the proportion of electric
vehicles in newly sold passenger vehicles made a new history record and reached
4.6% [3]).
As a response to the world’s mission and goal for climate change addressing and
sustainable development, many countries have actively adopted industrial policies
and regulations regarding carbon neutrality, improved the electric vehicle industry
chain, and accelerated the popularization of electric vehicles to promote low-carbon
and green mobility. In July 2021, the European Commission released the core policy
of the European Green Deal - “Fit for 55”, revised the CO2 emission performance
standards for new passenger vehicles and light-duty commercial vehicles, and put
forward 12 policies covering energy, industry, transportation and building heating,
striving to achieve the target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 55% from
the 1990 level by the end of 2030. The latest proposal put forwards a requirement
to reduce the carbon emission of new passenger vehicles and trucks by 55% from
the 2021 level by 2030 and realize zero net emissions by 2035, and also requires
governments to strengthen the construction of vehicle charging infrastructures, as
shown in Fig. 4.6 . In August 2021, the Biden Administration issued an executive
order, proposing that BEVs, PHEVS and FCEVs should account for 50% of all
newly-sold passenger vehicles by 2030. In December 2020, the Japanese government
released the “Green Growth Strategy”, proposing to phase out fuel vehicles in the
next 15 years, realizing the substitution of electric vehicles (including HEVs and
FCEVs) for fuel vehicles by 2035, and hitting the carbon neutrality goal by 2050.
In order to respond to these policies and regulations, as well as take the required
social responsibilities, major companies have accelerated the pace of R&D and inno-
vation of electric vehicles, put forward the electrification strategy, and defined the
target time to stop the sale of ICE vehicles and the target time of carbon neutrality.
Specifically, Jaguar plans to realize full electrification by 2025; Volvo, BMW MINI
and Mercedes-Benz plans to realize the transformation into a BEV brand or full
electrification by 2030; GM, Toyota and Lexus plan to realize full electrification by
2035, as shown in Fig. 4.7. Besides, BMW also announced to increase the proportion
126 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

Fig. 4.6 Governments’ target time for 100% stop /phase-out of sales and registration of new ICE
vehicles

of NEVs in the total delivery to at least 50% by 2030; Volkswagen issued the “2030
NEW AUTO” strategy which also clearly stated to increase the proportion of BEVs
to 50% by 2030; Nissan issued the 2030 Vision, making a clear plan to increase the
proportion of electric models of Nissan and Infiniti brands to above 50%.
The major big automobile countries have strengthened their strategic planning
and policy support for new energy vehicles, and multinational automobile enter-
prises have increased their R&D investment and improved their industrial layout
for new energy vehicle. NEV has become the main direction of the transformation
and development of the global automotive industry and an important engine for
the sustainable growth of the world economy, as shown in Fig. 4.8. The EV sales
and penetration rate are also rising globally [4] (source: EV-Volumes), as shown

Fig. 4.7 Electrification strategies of major automobile enterprises and the planned target time
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 127

Fig. 4.8 Annual sales of electric passenger vehicles in all market segments from 2011 to 2021

in Fig. 4.9; Tesla, with a mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable
energy, delivered nearly 1,000,000 vehicles in 2021. In a word, the world has opened
her arms to embrace the electric vehicles.

4.2.2.2 Development of NEV Industry in China

On September 22, 2020, General Secretary Xi Jinping announced at the general

debate of the 75th UN General Assembly that China is striving to peak CO2 emissions
by 2030, and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Since automotive industry is an
important carbon emission source and a major energy consumer in China, its carbon
emission reduction and low-carbon development also affect the realization of carbon
peak and carbon neutrality goals, and besides, the carbon emission of vehicles in
the fuel cycle (including fuel use process and fuel production process) takes the
largest proportion in the life cycle carbon footprint. Therefore, developing new energy
vehicles is a necessary and wise movement in the course of carbon emission reduction
of automotive industry, which is also the only way for China to transform from a big
automobile country into a powerful automobile country.
On October 20, 2020, the General Office of the State Council issued the New
Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021–2035) [5], which makes an overall
planning for the development of China’s NEV industry during the “14th Five-Year
Plan” period and in the medium and long term, defines the development vision and
128 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

Fig. 4.9 Global annual sales and penetration rate of electric passenger vehicles from 2012 to 2021

five key tasks, and puts forward support measures to provide overall guidance for
the development of the NEV industry.
Then on October 27, the Technology Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy
Vehicles 2.0 (hereinafter referred to as “Roadmap 2.0”) prepared under the guidance
of the Manufacturing Industry No. 1 Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Infor-
mation Technology and the leadership of China Society of Automotive Engineers
was issued, which, based on the social vision and industrial vision of automotive
technology, and the electrification strategy, puts forward six overall goals for 2035,
including peaking of the total carbon emission of China’s automotive industry around
2028 ahead of the national commitment, and reduction of the total carbon emission by
more than 20% compared with the peak by 2035; NEVs have gradually become the
mainstream automobile products, and years 2025, 2030 and 2035 are the key nodes
for the automotive industry to basically realize the electrification. It is estimated
that by 2035, the annual sales of energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles in
China will account for 50% and 50% respectively, realizing full electrification of the
automotive industry.
In fact, China has made remarkable achievements in vehicle electrification, with
the market penetration rate of NEVs steadily increased and the industrial scale devel-
opment accelerated. In 2019, due to cyclical fluctuations in the automobile industry,
the reduction of subsidies, and the marketing promotion of conventional fuel vehi-
cles, the NEV market was shrunk for the first time and developed not as well as
expected. Then in the first half of 2020, the NEV market was negatively affected by
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 129

the COVID-19 pandemic, but it recovered and even grew with a strong momentum in
the second half of the year. Throughout 2020, the sales of NEVs were 1.367 million,
with a YoY growth rate of 10.9%. In 2021, China’s vehicle production and sales
increased compared with last year, putting an end to the three consecutive years
of decline since 2018, as shown in Fig. 4.10. Among all vehicle types, NEV have
become the brightest star with sales of more than 3.5 million and an increased market
share of 13.4%, further indicating that the driving force of NEV market has shifted
from policy to market demand (Fig. 4.11).
In terms of the life cycle carbon footprint, the carbon emission from vehicle
use takes the largest proportion. As described in Sect. 3.4, in 2021, the fuel cycle
carbon emission of passenger vehicles was about 520 million tCO2 e, accounting for
74% of the total carbon emissions of passenger vehicles. Therefore, accelerating the
transformation from conventional fuel vehicles to zero-emission vehicles is the most

Fig. 4.10 Annual sales of NEVs in China

Fig. 4.11 Market penetration rate of NEVs in China over the years
130 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

important way to achieve carbon peak and carbon emission reduction in the automo-
tive industry as soon as possible. This study is based on the key parameter targets in
the “Roadmap 2.0”, and references the technical targets in current plans, technical
guidance and relevant standards including New Energy Vehicle Industry Develop-
ment Plan (2021–2035) and Limits of fuel consumption for passenger vehicles, as
well as the research reports issued by International Council on Clean Transportation
(ICCT), China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), International
Energy Agency (IEA) as references. Based on the parameter setting for vehicle
electrification scenario in 2021, the proportion relationship between battery electric
passenger vehicles and hybrid electric passenger vehicles (BEV + PHEV) is added,
the proportion of new energy passenger vehicles in the total sales of passenger vehi-
cles is increased, and a more positive prediction to the sales structure of new vehicles
is made. For example, the “CALCP Report 2021” specified to increase the propor-
tion of new energy passenger vehicles in the total sales of passenger vehicles to 50%
in 2035, and this parameter was adjusted to 62% this year. As shown in Figs. 4.12
and 4.13, under the reference scenarios, the electrification proportion of passenger
vehicles (BEV + PHEV) will reach 40% in 2030 and 90% in 2060, and that of
commercial vehicles (BEV) will reach 5.2% in 2030 and 16.9% in 2060; under the
low-carbon scenario, the electrification proportion of passenger vehicles will reach
50% in 2030 and 88% in 2060, and that of commercial vehicles will reach 7.6% in
2030 and 28.3% in 2060; under the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the electrification
proportion of passenger vehicles will reach 70% in 2030 and 85% in 2060, and that
of commercial vehicles will reach 10.8% in 2030 and 49.5% in 2060.s
The parameters for energy efficiency improvement of passenger vehicles are set
based on the energy efficiency in 2021, and the energy efficiency of different types
of passenger vehicles will be improved in different extent in the future. With the
increase of emission reduction intensity under different scenarios, the fuel consump-
tion of diesel/gasoline passenger vehicles and hybrid electric passenger vehicles
as well as the electricity consumption of battery electric passenger vehicles will
decrease slightly, and the fuel consumption of fuel cell electric passenger vehicles
will decrease by about 30%. As time goes, the energy consumption of passenger
vehicles of different fuel types will decrease significantly in the future, among which
the fuel consumption of fuel cell electric passenger vehicles will decrease the most
(i.e. up to 50%), as shown in Fig. 4.14.
As for the setting of parameters for energy efficiency improvement of commer-
cial vehicles, the energy efficiency of battery electric commercial vehicles and fuel
cell electric commercial vehicles will be significantly improved. Compared with the
reference scenario, the effect of time on the energy efficiency of commercial vehicles
of different fuel types is more obvious. For example, under the reference scenarios,
the energy efficiency of fuel cell electric commercial vehicles and battery electric
vehicles in 2060 will increase by about 40% and about 37% respectively compared
with 2021.
It is planned in “Roadmap 2.0” to increase the overall penetration rate of NEVs
in China to 20% in 2025, 40% in 2030 and 50% in 2035. In fact, with the develop-
ment trend of global carbon neutrality, customers’ awareness of low carbon, energy
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 131

Fig. 4.12 Proportion of passenger vehicles of different fuel types in new passenger vehicle sales
under three scenarios

conservation and environmental protection continues to improve, and customers’

acceptance to NEVs is also rising [6]. According to the Analysis Report of National
Passenger Vehicle Market in December 2021 released by the China Passenger Vehicle
Association (CPCA), the domestic retail penetration rate of NEVs reached 22.6% in
December 2021. BYD, as the representative enterprise of China’s independent NEV
brand, saw a rapid growth in its total sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2021,
i.e. reaching nearly 600,000 units; the sales of three emerging auto manufacturing
forces (namely NIO, XPeng and Li Auto) also exceeded 90,000; other national auto-
mobile brands, such as FAW, Changan, GAC, Geely and GWM also released their
own electrification strategies.
The improvement of charging infrastructures also accelerates the development of
electric vehicles. The New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021–2035)
132 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

Fig. 4.13 Proportion of commercial vehicles of different fuel types in new commercial vehicle
sales under three scenarios

clearly proposes to speed up the construction of charging and battery swapping infras-
tructures and improve the service level of charging infrastructures. In January 2022,
the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other ministries,
in order to fully implement the New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan
(2021–2035), support the development of NEV industry, break through the develop-
ment bottlenecks of charging infrastructure, promote the construction of new power
systems, and assist in the achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals,
clearly requires to further improve China’s EV charging support capacity, and estab-
lish a moderately advanced, balanced, intelligent and efficient charging infrastructure
system by the end of the “14th Five-Year Plan” to meet the charging demand of more
than 20 million electric vehicles.
Whether the bottlenecks in vehicle charging can achieve an effective breakthrough
will have a significant impact on the low-carbon goal of road transport. As we know,
users’ anxiety on mileage is more about the convenience and timeliness of charging
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 133

Fig. 4.14 Setting of parameters for vehicle energy efficiency improvement under three scenarios

and battery swapping, and if charging or battery swapping is equally convenient as

refueling or even more convenient than refueling (such as home charging), more
users will tend to choose electric vehicles which are more environmentally friendly,
intelligent and comfortable.
The energy interaction between new energy vehicles and the power grid (V2G)
should be strengthened, and the efficient cooperation between new energy vehicles
and renewable energies should be promoted, so as to give full play to the “power
sponge” effect of electric vehicles [7], enable the road transport sector to achieve
the “carbon emission reduction effect of external coal power substitution” through
“green power storage and discharge”, and realize the overall “net/negative carbon
emission merit” of energy vehicles. According to the reference scenario, if China is
able to realize V2G scale commercial application conditions around 2025, China’s
V2G vehicles will account for nearly half of the total number of private and corporate
134 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

vehicles by 2035 with a total volume of 100 million, the potential of coal power substi-
tution through “green power storage and discharge” will exceed 700 billion kWh
every year, and the annual “carbon emission reduction merits by external coal power
substitution” will reach above 800 million tCO2 e. If the “carbon emission reduc-
tion merits by external coal power substitution” of V2G vehicles are included in the
carbon emission reduction contribution of road transport sector, NEVs are expected
to, after 2035, help the road transport sector achieve “net/negative carbon emissions”,
and help other sectors such as manufacturing industry and building to increase the
proportion of green power consumption to achieve deep carbon reduction, making a
positive contribution to the realization of China’s carbon neutrality goal [8].
Therefore, it can be concluded that the addressing of climate change and the
proposal of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals have accelerated the
vigorous development of electric vehicles, and a clean power grid will further promote
the life cycle carbon emission reduction of vehicles. The social demand for green
and low-carbon transformation will inevitably promote the application of low-carbon
materials in electric vehicles, the improvement of lightweight and energy efficiency,
the echelon recycling of batteries, and the innovation and breakthrough of new tech-
nologies such as recycled materials. Electrification and carbon emission reduction
interact mutually and promote the continuous upgrading and high-quality develop-
ment of China’s automotive industry. As a response to the carbon neutrality goal,
it is recommended to further strengthen the support of both policy and technology
to the vehicle electrification, as detailed below: on one hand, strength the establish-
ment of policies and regulations, dynamically adjust the corresponding policies and
regulations according to the development stage of electrification in China, adopt the
most suitable low-carbon strategy for China’s national conditions, and strengthen
the harmonization with international rules; on the other hand, enhance the research
and development of core low-carbon technologies, further promote the research on
the carbon footprint of the whole automotive industry chain, and break through the
core technology bottlenecks such as carbon emission data, model algorithms, and
low-carbon technologies to realize the carbon neutrality of the whole automobile
value chain.

4.2.3 Path 3: Mitigating GHG Emissions of Petroleum-Based

Transport Fuels

Introduction
Oil, the second largest energy source in China (after coal), constitutes around 19%
of the national energy supply in 2019 [9]. The use of oil products contributed about
14% of China’s overall CO2 emissions, accounting for approximately 1417 million
tonnes of CO2 emissions in 2019 [10]. China’s oil demand is primarily driven by the
transport sector, which accounts for over 55% of total petroleum products (gasoline
and diesel) [11]. The unprecedented motorization development in China led to a
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 135

significant increase in oil demand, with roughly 6% annual growth rate over the past
10 years [12]. Alternative powertrains such as electric vehicles are growing rapidly,
however, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects that oil demand in China
will continue to rise in the coming decade [13] due to the accelerated urbanization
and the increased mobility. Thus, reducing emissions from conventional vehicles
powered by petroleum-based fuels is an important means to decarbonize China’s
transport sector. While advances in vehicle efficiency technologies could help reduce
fuel use, and therefore lower greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted, there are other
complementary measures that can reduce emissions of GHGs from well-to-wheels
(WTW). This includes improvements in crude oil extractions, oil refining, and the
use of low carbon fuels as blending components.
Crude oil extraction, transportation and refining are generally energy- and carbon-
intensive. On a global scale, the industry consumes approximately 3–4% of global
primary energy [14], and is responsible for 9% of all human-made GHG emissions
[15]. In China, on average, the total GHGs emitted from well-to-pump (WTP) account
for about 18% of the total WTW GHG emissions of road transportation (China
Automotive Life Cycle Database (CALCD) [16]). For the industry to play its part in
the climate change goals, improvements in the processes of extracting and refining
crude oil are critical. Many studies have highlighted the opportunities for mitigating
GHG emissions from existing facilities, which include improved routine maintenance
to reduce flaring and methane leaks [17], CO2 capture, storage, and reuse [18], and
integration of renewables and low carbon energy sources for on-site use [19].
Furthermore, the blending of low carbon fuels, including biofuels (produced from
sustainable biomass feedstock) and low-carbon electro-fuels (i.e., e-fuels, produced
from recycled CO2 and green hydrogen), can lead to significant reductions in the
carbon intensity of conventional fuels for combustion engines. E-fuels are gaining
interest worldwide as a promising solution [20, 21], given that it can be fully compat-
ible with existing infrastructures and vehicle fleet [22]. With a drop-in capability
close to 100%, e-fuels allow combustion engine technologies and fossil infrastruc-
tures to become an integral part of the climate solution. Production of e-fuels are
currently limited, but could increase with policy support and technological innova-
tions. In the European Union, e-fuels are recognized as an eligible pathway to meet
the 2030 transport renewable energy target in the recast of the Renewable Energy
Directive (RED-II) [23]. In China, the vision and strategy for e-fuels were recently
proposed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) [24]. A 1000-ton capacity
pilot facility, developed by the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics (DICP) and
Zhuhai Futian Energy Technology, was recently launched in Shandong province
to produce synthetic gasoline from CO2 and hydrogen by using innovative metal
catalysis technology [25].
This section provides a quantitative assessment of the GHG improvement potential
based on literature findings as a means to develop a possible decarbonization pathway
on liquid fuels for combustion engines.
136 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

Crude Oil Production

China, the world’s largest oil importer, receives crude oil from a diverse number of
oilfields all over the world. In 2021, China imported about 10.3 million barrels per
day (MMbbld−1 ), accounting for an estimated 72.3% of its total crude demand [12].
Saudi Arabia and Russia are the top two largest oil suppliers to China accounting for
~12% and ~1% respective market shares in 2021. Other Middle Eastern (e.g. Iraq,
Oman) and West African countries (e.g. Angola) contribute significantly to China’s
crude oil imports (Fig. 4.15a).
The GHG intensities of the crude oils imported by China can vary significantly
(Fig. 4.15b), with the volume-weighted average GHG intensities for the top 25 oil
supplies ranging between a low of 4.6 gCO2 e/MJ (from Saudi Arabia) and 29.2 gCO2
e/MJ (from Congo) [17]. Key factors affecting the GHG emission intensity of crude
oils include its density and gas flaring operations. High GHG intensity oil fields (e.g.,
from Venezuela and Canada) involve productions of unconventional crude oils such
as tar sands and extra-heavy oil, which require energy-intensive extraction (surface

Fig. 4.15 China crude oil mix and GHG intensity by country (>97% crude share since 2018).
1 China Customs Database [4] 2 M.S. Masnadi et al., Science 361, 6405 (2018) [9]
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 137

mining or steam-assisted gravity drainage) and upgrading processes. Some conven-

tional crude oil producers (e.g., Russia, Iran, Iraq, and the United States) involve
high levels of gas flaring [26], resulting in higher GHG emission intensities. Saudi
Arabia has the lowest country-level GHG intensity due to its low gas flaring rate,
low water production (less mass lifted per unit of oil produced and less energy used
for surface processing) and highly productive reservoirs. Crude oils produced from
domestic oil fields in China also possess a relatively low GHG intensity compared
to many other countries due to its modest volume of flaring [26, 27].
These imply an opportunity to decarbonize China’s crude oil intake by optimizing
its supply considering the GHG intensities of the different sources. For discussion
purposes, China’s crude oil supplies are split into three broad categories based on
the country-level GHG intensity (Table 4.1). Over half of the total crude diet have
emissions below 8 gCO2 e/MJ-crude oil where the volume share grew by 6.5%
from 2018 to 2021, while the share of countries with high GHG intensities (> 12
gCO2 e/MJ-crude oil) declined in the last three years. As a result, there has been
a progressive drop in the average GHG intensity of China’s crude oil consumption
since 2018 (Fig. 4.16a).
From a global perspective, there are several important GHG mitigation poten-
tials (Fig. 4.16b) that can be considered. Based on the results of a generic oil field
using the open-source oil sector LCA modeling tool—OPGEE [28], flaring, venting

Table 4.1 China crude oil share by GHG intensity (top 25 countries)
GHG intensity category 2018 (%) 2019 (%) 2020 (%) 2021 (%)
<8 gCO2 e/MJ-crude oil 52.2 54.0 55.5 58.7
8–12 gCO2 e/MJ-crude oil 26.7 26.8 28.2 27.0
>12 gCO2 e/MJ-crude oil 18.1 16.3 13.6 12.8

Fig. 4.16 China volume weighted average crude oil GHG intensity and mitigation potentials
138 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

and fugitives are important sources of GHG emissions from oil fields, which are
typically associated with infrastructure problems and operational practices. Reduc-
tion of flaring intensity from 155 (global average in 2015) to 20 scf gas flared per
bbl of oil produced (scf/bbl) (25th-percentile of the global oilfields in 2015 [17])
could allow for an estimated 20% GHG intensity reduction relative to a generic oil
field (China’s domestic flaring intensity in 2015 is reported to be about 47 scf/bbl
[28]). Moreover, additional 25% improvement in GHG intensity could be achieved
by adopting best-in-class practices, in which venting and fugitive gases are reduced
from the 2015 global average of 2.2 to 0.2 gCO2 e/MJ-crude oil (based on the 2015
country-average value in Norway).
Petroleum Refining
The GHG intensiveness of petroleum refining depends critically on its refining
complexity and how the heavy fractions of crude oils are processed. In 2015, over
75% of refineries in China are coking, deep conversion refineries, which are gener-
ally known to be energy and emissions intensive, emitting around 3 times as much
CO2 e/bbl of crude oil than a typical hydroskimming refinery [19]. Representative
refineries in China emit between ~5.9 and ~11.8 gCO2 e/MJ-crude oil, with the
volume weighted average GHG intensity as 9 gCO2 e/MJ-crude oil [19] (Fig. 4.17a).
For a typical deep conversion coking refinery, the GHGs are mainly emitted
from the hydrotreater (39%), FCC (19%), and gas oil hydrocracker (15%) units
(Fig. 4.17b), with key GHG abatement measures include the deployment of carbon
capture technologies (CC) and the use of low-carbon energy sources. International
Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas R&D Program [29] looks into 17–48% emissions
avoidance by using post-combustion CCS in refineries. Jing et al. [19] estimates that
the global refining emissions could potentially be reduced by 11% in a low-investment

Fig. 4.17 GHG intensity of China’s refining industry and mitigation potentials. 1 L. Jing Et Al.,
Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 526–532 (2020) [11]
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 139

Fig. 4.18 Example of e-fuels production route (image courtesy of Aramco)

decision scenario by deploying CC at both FCC and steam methane reformer (SMR)
for hydrogen production, and as much as 58% in a high-investment decision scenario
by scaling up the carbon capture deployments and use of low-carbon steam and
electricity (Fig. 4.17b).
Blending in e-fuels
E-fuels are produced via the chemical synthesis of carbon and hydrogen to form
liquid or gaseous hydrocarbons. Hydrogen is generated from low-carbon electricity
(via electrolysis) while the CO2 feedstock is captured either directly from the atmo-
sphere (direct air capture (DAC)) or from point sources (e.g., industrial processes).
The synthesis process can result in the production of synthetic diesel/gasoline,
methanol, dimethyl ether (DME), or other fuels, which can be used in many transport
applications such as road vehicles, airplanes, or ships (Fig. 4.18).
E-fuels can tap into the low cost and vast potentials of renewable energies (wind
and solar), while potentially offering stability to grids with high penetrations of vari-
able renewable energies. The challenges of handling hydrogen [30] (e.g. storage and
transportation) can be circumvented. Synthetic gasoline and diesel are compatible
with existing infrastructures, making them a suitable substitute that can initially be
used as a low-percentage blending component in conventional fuels. As the concen-
tration of low-carbon e-fuels in conventional gasoline/diesel are gradually increased
over time, the carbon intensities of the fuels decline accordingly. Effectively, low-
carbon e-fuels offer a faster decarbonization potential for the transport sector espe-
cially as it can be used in existing vehicles on the road today, unlike other alternative
powertrain solutions that are often limited by the slow vehicle turnover rate.
Figure 4.19 depicts the WTW GHG intensities of e-fuels obtained from the liter-
ature. Compared to conventional petroleum-based fuel (87.5 gCO2 e/MJ (diesel)
from CALCD), low-carbon synthetic fuels have the potentials to offer more than
70% GHG reductions. The literature data below are mainly for synthetic diesels,
140 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

Fig. 4.19 WTW GHG intensity of e-fuels relative to petroleum fuels (diesel). UCalgary = University
of Calgary, Liu et al. Sustainable Energy Fuels 2020, 4, 3129 [32]; ANL = Argonne national
laboratory, Zang et al. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2021, 55, 3888–3897 [33]; ICCT: International
Council on Clean Transportation [34]; PIK: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research [31]

however, as shown by Ueckerdt et al. [31], the carbon intensities for synthetic gaso-
line and synthetic diesel are not significantly different when the production processes
involve low-carbon pathways.
A Possible Decarbonization Pathway
Combustion engine vehicles that rely on liquid hydrocarbons are expected to consti-
tute a large share of the vehicles on the road for some time to come. As discussed
in the preceding paragraphs, there are significant potentials for reducing GHG emis-
sions of the liquid fuels either during the manufacturing of the petroleum fuels or by
gradually increasing the concentration of low-carbon synthetic fuels in the overall
fuel blend. This is particularly important given that the benefits of low-carbon alter-
native powertrains are often limited by the slow vehicle turnover rate in the market.
Furthermore, low-carbon liquid fuels could facilitate the decarbonization of the hard-
to-abate transport sectors such as heavy-duty vehicles, aviation, and shipping, in
which alternatives have more limited prospects.
Figure 4.20 presents a possible decarbonization pathway for liquid fuels resulting
from the deployment of the various mitigation opportunities in each life cycle stage.
The technologies, which are deployed incrementally, include: (1) reducing emissions
due to flaring, venting, and fugitives by improving operations and reducing leakages
during crude oil productions; (2) deploying carbon capture technologies within the
refinery and coupled with the use of low-carbon utilities; and (3) gradually increasing
the contents of low-carbon e-fuels in the final fuel blend. The e-fuels were assumed
to have an average carbon intensity of 14 gCO2 e/MJ. However, the error bars in
Fig. 4.20 reflect the variability associated with the use of e-fuels carbon intensity in
the range of 3.9–29 gCO2 e/MJ. Here, it can be seen that the series of mitigation
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 141

Fig. 4.20 A possible decarbonization pathway of petroleum-based transport fuels. Error bars reflect
variations of e-fuels GHG intensity (Fig. 4.19)

measures could potentially enable large GHG reductions, in which up to ~55% GHG
saving could be achieved when the fuel contains 60% low-carbon synthetic fuels.
This chapter demonstrates a possible complementary decarbonization pathway for
the road transport sector in China. The successes of these measures, however, require
an appropriate policy framework to attract investments in low-carbon technologies,
particularly to enable developments and deployments of low-carbon synthetic fuels
at scale. An effective decarbonization strategy for the transport sector will require
LCA-guided policy decisions that incorporate all technologies and all energy sources
as opportunities to enable a low-carbon mobility future for China.

4.2.4 Path 4: Low-Carbon Material

4.2.4.1 Analysis on Low-Carbon Transformation Path of Steel

(1) Importance of steel

Steel is one of the most commonly used materials in modern human society, and
is widely applied in construction, machinery, automobile, shipbuilding, home appli-
ances, hardware & tools and other industries. The steel has excellent recyclability.
Specifically, it can be easily recycled by simple equipment for unlimited times
without loss of physical and chemical properties.
According to the estimation of the World Steel Association, automobile industry,
with a steel consumption accounting for about 12% of the global steel consump-
tion, is the third largest user of steel following construction industry (51%) and
mechanical/electrical industry (18%) [35].
(2) Status-quo of carbon emission of steel
The steel industry, as the manufacturing industry with the largest carbon emission in
the world, follows only to the energy and transportation industries in terms of total
142 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

carbon emission. The steel industry accounts for 7% [36] of the global total carbon
emissions, and this proportion is high up to 17% in China. In 2020, the global total
carbon emissions of the steel industry was 3.44 billion tCO2 e, including 2.6 billion
tCO2 e of direct carbon emission (76%) and 840 million tCO2 e of indirect carbon
emissions (24%) [37];
The global average carbon emission per ton of steel is about 1.85 tCO2 e (including
indirect carbon emission), which can be reduced by 1.5 tCO2 e if the recycled steel
instead of the iron ore is used3 . Therefore, the long industry process is the key and
difficult point to achieve low-carbon transformation of China’s steel industry in the
future.
Steel industry is also one of the most difficult industries to achieve carbon
neutrality, and is the second largest coal consumer following thermal power genera-
tion industry. At present, about 75% of the energy required by the steel industry in
the world comes directly or indirectly from coal2 , which accounts for nearly 90% of
the energy structure of China’s steel industry.
As a middle and backbone industry of the China’s national economy, the steel
industry has a long and complex industrial chain, involving mining, logistics, energy
in the upstream and many national economic sector in the downstream such as infras-
tructure, real estate, machinery, automobile, shipbuilding, household appliances,
metal products, etc. Therefore, it covers a very large employment area and has a
huge impact on people’s livelihood. At present, the existing process technology is
mature enough, the scale merit is close to the theoretical limit, the resource and energy
utilization efficiency is high, and the global logistics system is efficient and sound.
Based on this, most steel enterprises have low momentum to promote low-carbon
transformation.
(3) Basic path for low-carbon transformation of steel
At the end of 2020, the International Energy Agency (IEA), with the support of the
World Steel Association and relevant enterprises and research institutions around the
world, released the Iron and Steel Technology Roadmap, which analyzed the possible
path to reduce the global total carbon emission of the steel industry by 90% in 2070
from the 2019 level. In May 2021, the World Steel Association released a position
paper named Climate Change and Steel Production, which clearly describes the main
pathways for the global steel industry to achieve low-carbon development. From the
short term, medium term and long term, generally the global steel industry should
try to reduce the carbon emission intensity per ton of steel from the following three
aspects:
1. Improving the energy efficiency of existing technical equipment
The modern steel industry has undergone more than 150 years of development, and
through continuous technological innovation and equipment transformation, it has
nearly approached the theoretical energy efficiency limit that the existing process
and equipment may reach. However globally, the development is not in balance
between countries and regions. The energy efficiency of some advanced steel enter-
prises is close to the theoretical limit, while for most steel enterprises, their energy
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 143

efficiency still has much room for further improvement. According to the statistics
of the World Steel Association, the energy consumption intensity of some poorly-
developed steel enterprises is about 30–50% higher than that of the most advanced
enterprises, provided the process technology, equipment and crude fuel used are
similar. If the energy efficiency of those poorly-developed steel enterprises can be
improved to the level of advanced steel enterprises, it is roughly estimated that the
global energy efficiency per ton of steel in the steel industry will increase by 10–15%,
which will then bring a considerable reduction in carbon emission intensity per ton
of steel. The achievement of this low-carbon path only requires small-scale transfor-
mation of existing processes and equipment, or promotion of advanced management
methods, and does not require a large amount of capital investment, and thus, it is
an effective way to reduce the carbon emission intensity per ton of steel in the short
term.
To improve the energy efficiency of poorly-developed steel enterprises to the
level of advanced steel enterprises, the following four measures are recommended.
(1) Improve the resource utilization efficiency: adopt the most economically feasible
raw materials including high-quality iron ore, steel scrap, coal, natural gas, auxiliary
raw materials, etc., improve the utilization of high-grade raw materials (especially
iron ore and coal), minimize the use of raw materials with high impurity content and
great smelting difficulty, and carry out fine processing of raw ores in the raw material
mining link to reduce the energy consumption and slag output in the smelting link.
(2) Reduce the energy intensity per ton of steel: adopt the latest technical equipment
and practical experience in all links of process such as energy transportation, energy
storage, energy conversion and equipment power supply to minimize the energy
intensity. (3) Improve the reliability of technological equipment: by adopting modern
management system and experience, make full use existing equipment, improve the
effective operation time of equipment, and reduce the time of idle, turnover and fault
maintenance, so as to minimize energy waste and improve the production efficiency
of each process link. (4) Improve the process yield: minimize the iron loss in each
process link through technical transformation and strengthening of production site
management, and comprehensively recycle the iron-containing by-products through
advanced technologies, so as to maximize the iron recycling rate and reduce the
consumption of primary raw material and fuel.
2. Making full use of steel scraps
Though the technical transformation of existing processes and equipment has the
potential to improve the energy efficiency, such improvement is limited and works
only in a short term. To further reduce the carbon emission intensity per ton of steel
in the medium term, it is necessary to make full use of steel scraps. According to the
estimation of the World Steel Association,1 ton of steel scrap, if recycled, can save
1.4 tons of iron ore and 0.74 tons of coal, which is equivalent to a carbon emission
reduction of 1.5 tCO2 e3 .
According to the estimation of the World Steel Association, about 700 million
tons of steel scraps are recycled every year in the world, of which 250 million tons
are in China; the crude steel produced from recycled steel accounts for about 32%
144 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

of the global steel output, of which about 22% is in China. In the future, the amount
of global steel scrap resources will rise steadily, and is expected to reach about
850 million tons (about 320 millions in China) in 2030 and about 1150 million tons
(about 400 million tons in China) in 20502 .
The best way to make full use of steel scraps is to replace parts of traditional
BF-BOF process with electric furnace process. That is, in areas with sufficient steel
scrap resources, stop the building of BF-BOF process capacity, increase EAF process
capacity, and if appropriate, replace some existing BF-BOF process capacity with
EAF process capacity.
3. Developing new generation of steel production technologies
According to the estimates of the World Steel Association and the International
Energy Agency, the global steel consumption is expected to rise from 1.95 billion
tons in 2021 to about 2.15 billion tons in 20502 . Due to the huge global steel demand
and the limited availability of steel scrap resources, the steel scrap resource, even if
fully recycled, still cannot meet the demand of steel production. Therefore from the
long term, the development of new generation of steel production technologies is the
only way for the steel industry to achieve carbon neutrality.
By June 2022, 28 steel enterprises around the world, including China Baowu,
Ansteel, HBIS and Baotou Steel in China, have issued clearly-defined carbon
neutrality goals, and announced to reduce their carbon emissions by 30% by 2030
and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 (or by 2040). In order to achieve the carbon
neutrality goal, the world’s leading steel enterprises have taken active actions and
invested a lot of resources in the research and development of new generation of steel
production technologies with hydrogen metallurgy as the mainstream process.
Steel enterprises in Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea started
early in the research and development of new generation of steel production tech-
nologies, and such research and development can even be traced to more than 20 years
ago, but the progress was slow. European enterprises, as represented by SSAB,
ThyssenKrupp, ArcelorMittal, Salzgitter and Voestalpine, have increased their R&D
investment in those new technologies since the signature of the Paris Agreement in
2015, and thus they are taking a leading position temporarily, and have promoted the
R&D resolution and investment of steel enterprises in other regions. In November
2021, Baowu launched the establishment of the Global Low-Carbon Metallurgical
Innovation Alliance (GLCMIA) which has initiated the first 25 scientific research
projects focusing on hydrogen metallurgy and full-oxygen carbon-cycle blast furnace
production technology. HBIS is building a hydrogen-based direct reduction iron plant
with a designed annual output of 600,000 tons in Xuanhua City, Hebei Province,
which is planned to be put into operation in 2022, and is expected to get its capacity
doubled in a few years. Jianlong, the second largest private steel enterprise in China,
has also launched its decarbonization project, and in April 2021, the 300,000t/a
hydrogen energy direct reduction iron plant built by the company in Inner Mongolia
was put into operation. In February 2022, Baowu started the 1,000,000t/a hydrogen-
based direct reduction project in Zhanjiang Steel Base, the first phase of which is
expected to be put into operation by the end of 2023.
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 145

The hydrogen metallurgy technology, as a new-generation production technology,

features weak foundation, great difficulty, large capital investment and long R&D
cycle, and is impossible to replace the traditional production process in a short time.
According to the information disclosed by some enterprises, the earliest all-green
hydrogen steel production project that may be put into medium-sized commercial
production is the Hybritt Project of Swedish Steel AB (SSAB) in Lulea, Sweden,
which is planned to supply near zero-emission steel plates produced without using
fossil fuels to Volvo and other automobile enterprises from 2026, and for most
steel enterprises, their R&D projects of will not be put into large-scale commer-
cial production until 2030 or even 2035. Another new type of production process
led by Boston Metal—electrolytic reduction technology—is expected to be unable
to realize large-scale application before 2040.
Synchronized with the research and development of new-generation steel produc-
tion technologies, the research and development on the application of carbon capture,
utilization and storage (CCUS) technology in the steel industry is also in progress.
At present, the production technology of methanol and ethanol using CO2 captured
from steel plants is basically mature and has been proved possible by a few enter-
prises such as Shougang and Jianlong, but it still faces some challenges such high
cost and poor scale merit. ArcelorMittal and other European steel enterprises are also
planning to build CCUS projects, but large-scale CO2 utilization and storage in the
steel industry, especially CO2 storage (with no application case available at present),
is expected to be impossible before 2035, as shown in Fig. 4.21.
Based on the implementation degree and time of the carbon reduction technology
paths above, it is expected that the global carbon emission intensity per ton of steel
will gradually decline, and by 2050, it will decrease by about 65% compared with
2019, as shown in Fig. 4.22. By 2025, through energy efficiency benchmarking
and energy efficiency upgrading around the world, the total carbon emission and
emission intensity of steel can be somehow reduced without prejudice to the growth
of steel production. After 2025, the global steel demand will maintain a slight growth
momentum, but the improvement of energy efficiency together with the massive
use of steel scraps and the gradual promotion and application of new-generation
low-carbon production technologies will enable a steady decline in the total carbon
emission and emission intensity of the steel industry.

Fig. 4.21 Carbon reduction technology paths for steel and their expected implementation time
146 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

Fig. 4.22 Trends in steel production, carbon emissions and carbon intensity from 2019 to 2050—
under IEA’s sustainable development scenario

2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Steel production 100 108 108.5 109.5 110.5 113.5 114.5
Total carbon emissions 100 96.5 88 79.5 68 59.5 46
Carbon emission intensity 100 90.5 78.5 66.5 56 46 35.5

Although governments of various countries/regions have adopted new policies

and measures as well as a large number of actions to promote the low-carbon trans-
formation of steel, the steel industry still faces many challenges in the process of
decarbonization, including high proportion of BF-BOF process capacity with iron
ore as raw material, problems in quantity and quality of steel scrap supply, diffi-
cult financing for decarbonization in the steel industry, and the most core problems
facing hydrogen metallurgy technology in the future (namely the large, safe and
economic supply of green hydrogen), which will affect the progress of low-carbon
transformation of steel.

4.2.4.2 Carbon Neutrality of Steel from the Perspective of Life Cycle

(1) Low-carbon metallurgy technology route and digital demand of China’s

steel industry

The steel industry is a pillar industry of China’s economic development, and also a key
carbon emission industry. The carbon peak and carbon neutrality of steel enterprises
is related to the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure, energy structure,
product structure and the application of new technologies, and thus it is necessary
to plan objectives and tasks from a comprehensive view and formulate action plans
scientifically. At present, major steel enterprises in China have released a low-carbon
roadmap.
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 147

For example, Baowu has proposed to achieve the carbon peak in 2023, obtain
the process and technology capacity to reduce carbon by 30% in 2025, reduce the
carbon emission by 30% in 2035, and realize carbon neutrality in 2050. Its carbon–
neutral metallurgy technology will be deployed and implemented by the following
six carbon reduction routes: (1) Carbon reduction based on energy efficiency limit of
steel process: Study the full-process theoretical and technical energy consumption
limit model, and try to approach the energy efficiency limit through the application
of best available commercial technology (BACT) and the integrated innovation in
intelligent manufacturing, interface energy efficiency improvement, deep recycling
of waste heat and energy and other fields. (2) Carbon reduction by BF process tech-
nology: BF process is the main process of steel production. Through technological
innovation, separate the CO2 of blast furnace gas, improve its quality, heat it and then
return it to the blast furnace for reuse, so as to maximize the carbon recycling rate
of blast furnace; apply hydrogen-rich metallurgy technology and build a hydrogen-
rich carbon-cycle blast furnace technology system, striving to achieve the goal of
reducing the carbon emission intensity per ton of steel by about 30% compared
with the traditional blast furnace technology. (3) Carbon reduction by hydrogen
metallurgy technology: put focus on the research of green hydrogen production
process technology, hydrogen direct reduction iron ore process technology and inte-
grated green hydrogen-direct reduction-electric furnace short process metallurgy
technology, so as to achieve a significant reduction in carbon emission per ton of
steel compared with BF-BOF process. (4) Carbon reduction by short-process near-
net-shape manufacturing technology: Different from the traditional production mode,
build a short-process near-net-shape manufacturing technology platform, and carry
out research on the electric furnace + near net shape manufacturing technology path
to achieve extremely low carbon emission in steel processing process. (5) Carbon
reduction by circular economy: Develop technologies for the use of recycled steel,
iron/carbon-containing solid wastes, multi-source biomass and other resources in the
steel production and reduce fossil energy consumption to continuously reduce the
carbon emission intensity per ton of steel. (6) Carbon reduction by carbon dioxide
recycling technology: Through large-scale capture and recycling of CO2 produced
in steel process at a low cost, explore the technology for deep carbon reduction in
steel process.
Ansteel has proposed to peak the carbon emission by 2025; achieve a breakthrough
in the industrial application of cutting-edge low-carbon metallurgical technologies,
promote the application of deep carbon reduction processes on a large scale by 2030,
and strive to reduce the total carbon emissions by 30% compared with the peak in
2035; continue to develop low-carbon metallurgical technologies to make Ansteel
be one of the first large steel enterprises in China’s steel industry to achieve carbon
neutrality. The “Five paths” for its low-carbon development are as follows—Path
1: layout and process re-engineering: promote mergers and acquisitions, optimize
industrial layout, re-engineer technological processes to improve energy efficiency
and reduce carbon emissions; Path 2: resource consumption reduction: promote
product life cycle management, encourage green production, and manufacture low-
carbon materials to reduce social resource consumption; Path 3: energy structure
148 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

optimization: deploy the new energy industry, adjust the energy structure, develop
energy storage technology, and build a source-grid-load-storage and multi-energy
complement energy system; Path 4: green mine demonstration: give full play to the
advantages of advanced mining and mineral processing technology to improve the
utilization efficiency of mineral resources, make full use of mine land resources and
develop green energy, and strengthen reclamation and increase ecological carbon
sink; Path 5: cutting-edge technology innovation: accelerate the research, develop-
ment and application of low-carbon metallurgy technology and CCUS technology
with the technology innovation as guidance, and share the achievements.
HBIS has proposed to implement the three-stage low-carbon transformation
process including carbon peak period, steady decline period and deep decarboniza-
tion period, achieve a carbon emission reduction of 10% from the peak in 2025 and
30% in 2030, and finally achieve carbon neutrality in 2050. Its six carbon reduction
technology paths are as follows: (1) ferrite resource optimization, including increase
of long-process pellet ratio and scrap ratio; (2) process optimization and recon-
struction, including increase of the proportion of all steel scrap EAF process and
interface optimization; (3) system energy efficiency improvement, including appli-
cation of various energy-saving technologies, improvement of intelligent manage-
ment and control level, and increase of the proportion of self-generated electricity;
(4) energy consumption structure optimization, including application of green power
and green logistics; (5) low-carbon technology transformation, including application
of hydrogen metallurgy technology and CCUS technology; (6), cooperative industry
carbon reduction, including development of forestry carbon sink, green building
materials and urban integration.
As per the low-carbon plans, steel enterprises have a deep understanding of the
technologies, methods and approaches of carbon reduction. But they have not estab-
lished a digital concept on the carbon reduction potential of these methods and
approaches, and have not made quantitative assessment to the effect of local improve-
ment by technical measures on the carbon reduction of the whole system, and thus
have no sufficient scientific carbon data support in the decision-making of low-carbon
planning.
Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a product-oriented “cradle-to-grave” method and
analysis tool for environment management, an international standard method for
systematic and quantitative description of consumption and environmental emis-
sion of various resources and energies as well as for assessment of their impact
on environment [38, 39], and also a scientific international method for evaluating
product environmental footprint (including carbon footprint, water footprint, etc.),
green production, green manufacturing, green supply chain and ecological design.
As implied by the definition, LCA has three characteristics: (1) product orientation;
(2) digital quantitative analysis; (3) systematic life cycle assessment. Therefore, LCA
can digitally show the life cycle environmental performance of a product, analyze
and compare the environmental performance of the same products with different
manufacturing methods and the environmental performance of the different prod-
ucts for the same function, and avoid the transfer of environmental impact from one
process to another, or from one pollutant to other pollutants.
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 149

Therefore, it allows steel enterprises to make low-carbon planning scientifically,

systematically and quantitatively.
(2) Building of the relationship between product carbon footprint and organization
carbon emissions
At present, there are generally two modes available for the management of enterprise
carbon emissions. One is organization level management defined in ISO 14064–
1:2018 Greenhouse gases—Part 1: Specification with guidance at the organization
level for quantification and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals [40],
and the carbon accounting method used in China currently is a simplified version
derived from this standard. The Guidelines for Accounting and Reporting Green-
house Gas Emissions of Chinese Steel Enterprises (Trial) issued by the National
Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) specifies the requirements for
accounting and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions of Chinese steel enterprises.
The other management mode is LCA-based product-oriented management defined in
ISO 14067:2018 Greenhouse gases—Carbon footprint of products—Requirements
and guidelines for quantification [41].
The enterprise-level carbon emission accounting boundary of China’s steel enter-
prises covers the direct emissions of the enterprises and the indirect emissions from
the purchased electric power and heat and is based on the carbon balance between
total input and total output, and thus it does not involve the details of specific processes
and processes. Steel enterprises have long process and various operation procedures,
and thus this black box accounting method based on total input and total output is
more applied to the national carbon emission management of enterprises and the
assessment of enterprises to their own total carbon emissions and cannot effectively
guide the steel enterprises to refine the carbon reduction planning.
The product carbon footprint based on LCA is accounted for according to the
actual process path of the product following the calculation logic of adding direct
carbon emissions with indirect carbon emissions. According to GB/T 30052–2013
Life cycle assessment specification on steel product (Product category rules) [42], it
can be expressed as follows:

bT,F,g = b F,g + aT ,i bi,g (4.1)

where,

bT,F,g cumulative elementary flow g based on the functional unit F.

b F,g direct flow of elementary flow g in the process of product production
based on the functional unit F.
aT,i direct consumption of crude fuel per functional unit in unit process i of
product system.
bi,g direct flow of elementary flow g in unit process i.
150 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …


aT ,i bi,g cumulative elementary flow g based on the functional unit in all fore-
ground processes (such as raw material mining process and transporta-
tion process, etc.) and all background processes (such as product use
process, waste utilization process, etc.).
The boundary of LCA can be determined according to the actual situation, which
usually includes:
“From cradle to grave”: the whole life cycle of the product, including
resource/energy exploitation, production, processing, manufacturing, use and main-
tenance, and recycling;
“From cradle to gate”: the process from the resource/energy exploitation and
production to the transportation of the manufactured product under study out of the
factory gate;
“From gate to gate”: from the transportation into the gate of the factory to the
transportation out of the factory gate, that is, the manufacturing stage.
For steel products, due to a wide range of downstream applications, the “cradle-
to-grave” analysis is only applicable to specific users. Therefore, steel enterprises
generally carry out cradle-to-gate LCA, that is, the process of forming steel products
from exploitation and transportation of raw materials including iron ore and coal,
to the processing of raw materials including coking and sintering, and finally to the
manufacturing of product through a series processes including iron smelting, steel
smelting, steel rolling and heat treatment.
LCA is oriented towards products, as products are the carriers of carbon emis-
sions. Changes in the whole process and system, such as changes of energy structure,
improvement of energy efficiency, increase of yield, and application of new tech-
nologies, can be all reflected to the changes in the carbon emissions of the product.
The change of product carbon footprint is required to be associated with the carbon
accounting at the organization level to link the detailed LCA carbon footprint results
with the overall carbon emissions of steel enterprises, so as to provide guidance for
their low-carbon planning. According to the analysis and comparison of calculation
logic and boundary of LCA-based carbon accounting and organization level carbon
accounting, the relationship can be established by Formula (4.2):

E= ( pi · LC AC O2 ,i ) (4.2)

where,
E Total carbon emissions within the LCA system boundary
pi Delivery quantity of product i (out of the system boundary)
LCACO2,i CO2 emissions of product i in LCA results
The Formula (4.2) physically interprets the total carbon emissions carried by all
carbon emission carriers delivered out of the system boundary, and does not include
the internally utilized intermediate products. For example, if part of the hot-rolled
coils produced are sold out and part of them are used for cold-rolled products, the
intermediate products used for cold rolling are not included in Formula (4.2).
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 151

According to the accounting boundary specified in the Guidelines for Accounting

and Reporting Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Chinese Steel Enterprises (Trial), the
Formula (4.2) can be written as follows:

(4.3)

where,

E Steel enterprise Total carbon emissions of the steel enterprise

accounted for according to the boundary defined in
the Guidelines
pi Delivery quantity of product i (out of the system
boundary)
LCACO2,gate-to-gate,i CO2 emissions within the gate-to-gate boundary in
the LCA results of product i
LCACO2, purchased power and heat, i CO2 emissions brought into the boundary by
purchased power and heat in the LCA results of
product i

(3) Application of LCA in low-carbon planning of steel enterprises

The carbon emission reduction performance of new technology & process applica-
tion, product structure change, energy structure change, steel scrap recycling rate
increase, energy conservation and emission reduction improvement, supply chain
optimization and other factors can be quantified by establishing a product life cycle
assessment model covering the whole enterprise, as shown in Fig. 4.23.
Assessment of carbon emission reduction potential of new technology & process
application.
The application of new technologies and processes is the most common and typical
application scenario of LCA. LCA comparison is based on the same functional unit,

Fig. 4.23 Quantitative assessment of carbon emission reduction potential of each measure and
strategy by LCA
152 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

Fig. 4.24 Comparison of carbon footprint of billets from typical BOF process and EAF process

that is, the assessment of impact on resources, energy and environmental emissions
under the same functional conditions. For example, Fig. 4.24 is a LCA analysis for
comparison between BOF process and EAF process, and shows the composition of
the product carbon footprint of different processes. If necessary, the composition for
the processes in plant can be further detailed.
Similar analysis can be used for the application of low-carbon processes to predict
the carbon reduction potential and its detailed composition, such as the LCA simu-
lation of hydrogen-based shaft furnace direct reduction-EAF route and traditional
BF-BOF route.
Effect of product structure on carbon peak.
There is a view that the carbon peak in the steel industry is actually the peak of steel
output, which makes senses when the product structure is relatively fixed. However,
if the product structure changes and the proportion of deeply-processed products
increases, carbon emissions may rise significantly under the same steel output. LCA
results show that the carbon footprints of different products are quite different. Table
4.2 lists the global average carbon footprint of steel products in 2020 released by the
World Steel Association, and as shown, the carbon footprints of different products
differ by nearly one times, and even by three times if the oriented silicon steel and
stainless steel are considered. Therefore, the impact of product structure must be
considered in the carbon peak planning.
Formula (4.3) can be used to dynamically simulate the change of total carbon
emissions of enterprises under different product structures, where pi represents the
product structure. LCA establishes a relationship between the product structure and

Table 4.2 Global average carbon footprint of steel products released by the World Steel
Association—Extract [43] (from cradle to gate, kg CO2 eq./kg)
Product name Profile (Section Reinforcement Hot-rolled coil Organic coating
steel) (Rebar) coil coated coil
Carbon footprint 1.578 1.966 2.343 2.894
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 153

the total carbon emissions of enterprises and provides support for enterprises to adjust
and optimize product structure.
Impact of energy structure on carbon emissions.
Energy structure change is an important way to carbon emission reduction and
carbon neutrality, that is, replacing fossil energies at the energy supply side with
carbon-free energies for power generation and hydrogen production to build a green
and clean electric power system and energy supply system. Of course, this is a long
course, and steel enterprises are required to gradually plan the carbon emission reduc-
tion target of each stage while formulating the carbon emission reduction roadmap. In
the LCA model, the relationship between energy use and overall carbon emissions
can be established by adjusting the energy composition and energy consumption
efficiency, so as to formulate a reasonable carbon emission reduction roadmap for
adjusting the energy structure.
Carbon emissions per unit calorific value of common fuels in steel plants are
shown in Fig. 4.25. As shown, the “substitution of natural gas for coal” strategy
is one of possible ways to reduce carbon emission. LCA analysis shows that [44],
under the existing process of steel enterprises, more than 60% of coal energy is
used as reducing agent and other raw materials rather than fuel, and the occasions
where “ substitution of natural gas for coal” strategy can be applied mainly include
power plant coal-fired power generation unit, blast furnace pulverized coal injection,
calcination pulverized coal injection, and etc. The implementation of “ substitution
of natural gas for coal” strategy can realize a carbon emission reduction of 33% from
the current level. Mixed gas is a representative for comprehensive utilization of by-
products in steel enterprises, and if it is replaced by natural gas, waste of by-product
gases will be caused.

Fig. 4.25 Carbon emissions per unit calorific value of common fuels in steel plants
154 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

Fig. 4.26 Carbon emissions of power production from various sources (kgCO2 e/kWh)

Power structure change is an important direction for steel enterprises to

reduce carbon emission. Figure 4.26 lists the life cycle carbon footprints of various
electric powers sourced from the China Automotive Life Cycle Database (CALCD).
LCA can simulate the carbon emission reduction potential of steel enterprises from
such actions as closing coal-fired power plants, purchasing grid power and purchasing
green power.
Prediction of carbon emission reduction potential of steel scrap recycling rate
increase.
The increase of steel scrap recycling rate has a significant effect on carbon emis-
sion reduction, as shown in Fig. 4.24. For the assessment of the carbon emission
reduction effect of steel scrap recycling rate increase, the whole process of steel
scrap industry chain, including steel scrap recovery, dismantling, processing, and
shredding, distribution and application, should be considered from the perspective
of life cycle. As the supply of steel scrap resources cannot meet the demand of
steel production, it is necessary to consider the availability of steel scrap resources
and gradually increase the steel scrap recycling rate during low-carbon planning for
improvement of steel scrap recycling rate.
The steel scrap recycling rate can mainly be improved by the following two
methods, that is increase of BOF scrap ratio, and increase of EAF steelmaking
proportion. In the LCA simulation to the increase of BOF scrap ratio, the composi-
tion of molten iron and steel scrap in the LCA model and the parameters such as heat
supplement agent to be added after the scrap ratio is increased can be dynamically
adjusted, so as to build the correlation between the increase of scrap ratio and the
overall carbon emission of the enterprise. In the LCA simulation to the increase of
EAF steelmaking proportion, when the steel output of the enterprise is limited, it is
necessary to maintain the balance of the overall steel output of the EAF path and the
BOF path in the LCA model.
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 155

The LCA simulation results show that the ratio of increase of steel scrap recycling
rate to carbon emission reduction of steel enterprises is related to the product struc-
ture of the enterprise. If the proportion of highly processed products is higher, the
proportion of carbon emission of smelting system is lower, and ratio of the increase
of scrap ratio to overall carbon emission reduction is also lower.
Supply chain carbon emission management.
From the analysis of carbon footprint composition of steel products, supply chain
and external transportation account for 20–30% of carbon footprint of steel products,
and thus are important parts of carbon footprint of steel products. The low-carbon
planning of steel enterprises should consider not only the carbon emission reduction
within the enterprise, but also the carbon emission of the supply chain. If appropriate,
some carbon reduction pressure can also be transferred to suppliers to promote the
low-carbon transformation of the industrial chain.
Figure 4.27 is the LCA analysis of electrodes from different suppliers. To the end
of the EAF molten steel production, the impact of electrode use on life cycle carbon
emission of EAF molten steel is different from supplier to supplier. Steel enterprises
can establish a supplier LCA-based green assessment system, build a product carbon
database, and when enough data are accumulated, establish a green access system to
phase out high carbon emission products.
(4) The regular disclosure of life cycle carbon emission of steel can provide
support for the carbon footprint accounting and carbon emission reduction
planning of the automotive industry

When it comes to the impact of the steel industry on the environment, there is
often a misunderstanding that steel is a non-environmentally friendly material as
the production of steel products will consume a lot of energy and emit a lot of CO2
and other pollutants. This is quite one-sided view. As the most widely used and most
productive material in human society, steel has not been replaced by other materials
so far. The improvement of the performance of steel products and the production

Fig. 4.27 Comparison of carbon emissions of electrodes from different suppliers

156 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

of high value-added steel products will generally increase the environmental load
of the steel manufacturing process, but can help reduce the environmental load of
downstream industries and the whole society to a greater extent. In fact, the steel
industry bears more social responsibilities than others. In the automotive industry,
the use of high-strength steel panels and bars can help reduce the weight of vehicles
and thus improve their energy economy with less energy consumed and less GHG
emitted. The application of laser tailor-welded blanks can simplify the process of
automobile manufacturing and thus reduce the impact on the environment; the use of
high-strength steel and laser tailor-welded blanks can also improve the safety perfor-
mance of vehicles; the application of hot dip galvanized high-strength steel, electro
galvanized high-strength steel and stainless steel for exhaust system can prolong the
service life of those automobile parts, reduce waste and thereafter the carbon emis-
sions. Therefore, the industrial low-carbon development plan shall be formulated in
a scientific way with the whole society and the whole industrial chain systemati-
cally considered. From the concept of life cycle assessment, if another material than
steel is to be used to realize the same function and output, it always means a higher
environmental load, which indirectly reflects the environmental protection charac-
teristics of the steel. With the introduction of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, it is
necessary to establish a life cycle carbon emission information disclosure platform
for steel to support the carbon footprint accounting and carbon emission reduction
route planning of the automotive industry and other downstream industries.
LCA is a standard language for international dialogue in the green and low-carbon
product field, and will play a more important role in this field when the “carbon
neutrality” has become the front hotspot and trend of global green development.
The active participation of China’s steel industry in the international steel LCA will
help promote the green and low-carbon transformation of China’s steel industry,
improve its green and low-carbon image, and increase its voice in this field and also
its competitiveness in international market.
Enhancing the participation and voice in the construction of international carbon
label assessment system is an essential way for China to cope with international green
trade barriers and international environmental taxes (such as the EU’s carbon border
adjustment mechanism (CBAM)), enhance the voice in the international green and
low-carbon product field, and occupy a favorable position in the international compe-
tition. Therefore, China should actively participate in the formulation of carbon label
assessment system, constantly strengthen China’s voice in this field, and enhance
China’s core competitiveness in international trade through strong competition with
other countries.
(5) Conclusions and recommendations
In the process of “carbon peak and carbon neutrality” path planning, steel enter-
prises should scientifically and systematically formulate a carbon emission reduc-
tion roadmap with the whole steel industry chain and the whole product life cycle
considered. LCA allows steel enterprises to make low-carbon planning scientifically,
systematically and quantitatively. By establishing a product life cycle assessment
model covering the whole enterprise, the carbon emission reduction performance of
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 157

new technology & process application, product structure change, energy structure
change, steel scrap recycling rate increase, energy conservation and emission reduc-
tion improvement, supply chain optimization and other factors can be quantified, real-
izing digital description of the carbon emission reduction roadmap. Disclosure of the
steel life cycle carbon emission information will undoubtedly drive the development
of the upstream and downstream industrial chains and enable the participation of the
whole industrial chain in green and low-carbon transformation. The regular disclo-
sure of life cycle carbon emission of steel can provide support for the carbon footprint
accounting and carbon emission reduction planning of the automotive industry.

4.2.4.3 Thinking on Low-Carbon Transformation of Aluminum

Processing Industry

According to the statistics of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association

(CNMIA), the total CO2 emissions from China’s nonferrous metal industry in 2020
accounted for 6.5% of the total CO2 emissions in China, and aluminum is the largest
product and also the large carbon emission source in the nonferrous metal industry.
In China, the CO2 emissions from aluminum industry accounted for 77% of the total
CO2 emissions from nonferrous metal industry and 5% of the national total CO2
emissions, which proves that the aluminum industry has great potential for carbon
emission reduction.
(1) Importance of aluminum and aluminum alloy in carbon emission reduction
of automotive industry
According to statistics, CO2 emissions can be reduced by about 5 g/km for every
100 kg of vehicle weight reduction, indicating that automobile lightweight is of great
significance to energy conservation and consumption reduction. It is demonstrated
by experiments that, if the vehicle weight is reduced by 10%, the fuel efficiency
can be increased by 6%-8%. Specifically, for every 100 kg reduction of vehicle curb
weight, the fuel consumption per 100 km will drop by 0.3–0.6 L for fuel vehicles,
or the range will increase by 6%-11% for electric vehicle; the fuel consumption will
drop by 0.7% for every 1% of reduction in vehicle weight.1
In terms of weight, metal parts account for more than 85% of the total weight of
all parts on the vehicle. Therefore, the weight reduction of metal parts has become
the key to automobile lightweight, that is to say, metal part lightweight is the most
reliable way to automobile lightweight. Aluminum, as a light metal, has a density
about one third of that of steel as well as good conductivity, thermal conductivity
and corrosion resistance, and besides, the aluminum alloy features a machinability
better than that of traditional metal materials as well as a low melting point, allowing
for an aluminum recycling rate in the whole process of use and recycling higher

1a Application of Aluminum Alloy Composites in Automotive Lightweight. Zhu Zegang. Light

Metals [2011]. No. 10 Issue).
158 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

than 90%; therefore, aluminum alloy is the most ideal substitution for steel to realize
automobile lightweight.
Chinalco Advanced Manufacturing Co., Ltd. was established in September,
2019 by Aluminum Corporation of China (CHINALCO) and Chongqing Municipal
People’s Government and put into official operation in November, 2020. It is regis-
tered in Jiulongpo District, Chongqing with a registered capital of 15 billion yuan,
of which CHINALCO takes a share of 65% and Chongqing Municipal People’s
Government takes a share of 35%.
Chinalco Advanced Manufacturing Co., Ltd. has set up a series of subsidiaries
including Southwest Aluminum (Group) Co., Ltd., Northeast Light Alloy Co.,
Ltd., Northwest Aluminum Corporation Limited, Chalco Ruimin Co., Ltd., Chalco
Aluminum Foil Co., Ltd., Chalco Sapa Co., Ltd., Chinalco Luoyang Henan
Aluminum Processing Co., Ltd., Chinalco Aluminum Colored Aluminum Tech-
nology Co., Ltd., Chinalco Shenyang Non-ferrous Metals Processing Co., Ltd.
and Chinalco Materials Application Research Institute Co.,Ltd., and also R&D
and production bases in Chongqing, Heilongjiang, Gansu, Fujian, Sichuan, Henan,
Guizhou, Liaoning, and Beijing. It is equipped with internationally advanced produc-
tion lines for fusion casting, hot continuous rolling, cold continuous rolling, plate of
moderate thickness, forging, extrusion and other processes, and is mainly engaged
in the production of aluminum and aluminum alloy plates, strips, foils, tubes, bars,
profiles and forgings. Besides, it boasts leading technological R&D and innovation
strength in China. Now, it is the largest aluminum processing enterprise in China
with products exported to more than 40 countries and regions.
(2) Status-quo of carbon emission in aluminum processing industry
At present, only Southwest Aluminum (Group) Co., Ltd. and Southwest Aluminum
Business Unit under the Chinalco Advanced Manufacturing Co., Ltd. are included
in the pilot carbon market in Chongqing but not included in the national carbon
market, and other subsidiaries are not included in the Chongqing and national pilot
carbon market. According to statistics, the carbon emissions of Chinalco Advanced
Manufacturing Co., Ltd. from 2018 to 2020 were 1,153,800 tCO2 e, 1,177,100 tCO2 e
and 1,188,200 tCO2 e respectively.
The carbon footprint of aluminum products manufactured by Chinalco Advanced
Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is mainly composed of the carbon footprint of raw mate-
rials and the carbon emission from production. The carbon footprint of raw mate-
rials refers to the carbon emission intensity in the whole process of bauxite mining,
alumina production and aluminum electrolysis production; carbon emissions from
production include carbon emissions from fuel, heat and electricity used in aluminum
ingot remelting and processing. It is calculated that the carbon footprint intensity
of the aluminum products of the Chinalco Advanced Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is
11.81 tCO2 e/ton of aluminum, including 1.05 tCO2 e/ton of aluminum contributed
by production, and 10.76 tCO2 e/ton of aluminum contributed by raw materials. If
calculated by product category, the carbon emission intensity in extrusion process
is about 5.69 tCO2 e/ton of aluminum (calculated according to the data of North-
west Aluminum Corporation Limited), and the carbon emission intensity in rolling
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 159

process is about 0.79 tCO2 e/ton of aluminum (calculated according to the data of
Chalco Ruimin Co., Ltd.), as shown in Fig. 4.28.
The analysis of carbon emissions in main nodes of aluminum production is shown
in Table 4.3:
According to the calculation process, first he carbon emission intensity of different
raw materials are analyzed, as shown in Table 4.4:

Fig. 4.28 Carbon emissions in main production processes of aluminum

Table 4.3 Calculation of carbon emissions in main nodes of aluminum production

Node Process of carbon emission Carbon emission (tCO2 e/ton of Proportion (%)
aluminum)
1 Alumina sintering process 3.69 21.6
Alumina Bayer process 1.2 7.0
2 Prebaked anode 0.42 2.5
Electrolytic tank 9.96 58.3
3 Carbon production 0.76 4.4
4 Aluminum processing 1.05 6.1

Table 4.4 Carbon footprint

Usage Carbon emission intensity (tCO2 e/ton of
of different raw materials
scenario aluminum)
Raw General virgin Green Recycled
material aluminum ingot aluminum aluminum
ingot
14.8 3.05 0
160 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

Fig. 4.29 Proportion of

carbon emission sources in
virgin aluminum production

The carbon emission intensity of a process mainly depends on the yield of

processed materials and the carbon emission of energy used in the process. Generally
speaking, for each 1% increase in the comprehensive yield of process, the carbon
emission will decrease by 1%. Besides, increasing the use of clean electricity in a
process can significantly reduce the carbon emission of this process.
(3) Phased implementation plan for carbon emission reduction of aluminum
industry
CO2 emissions from virgin aluminum production in the aluminum industry account
for about 93.9% of the total, in which the CO2 emission of energy consumption takes
the largest proportion up to 77.5% (of which, CO2 emissions from electric energy
consumption account for about 64.3%, and CO2 emissions from thermal energy
consumption account for 13.1%), as shown in Fig. 4.29.
According to the data of Antaike, the total carbon emission from one ton of
electrolytic aluminum produced by thermal power is about 13 tCO2 e, including
11.2 tCO2 e in power generation and 1.8 tCO2 e in water electrolysis; while the total
carbon emission from one ton of electrolytic aluminum produced by hydropower is
down to 1.8 tCO2 e, all of which come from water electrolysis process. The carbon
emission of aluminum production by hydropower is 86% less than that of aluminum
production by thermal power. Therefore, virgin aluminum production by green and
clean energy has a great potential for carbon emission reduction.
On June 8, 2021, at the fourth social responsibility work conference and the fifth
carbon reduction activity of CHINALCO, CHINALCO released the CHINALCO
Action Plan on Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality, which clearly stated that
CHINALCO would strive to achieve carbon peak by 2025 and 40% carbon emis-
sion reduction by 2035. By 2020, CHINALCO realized an electrolytic aluminum
capacity of 4.46 million tons, in which the electrolytic aluminum produced by
green energy accounts for 49.98%. Considering that the proportion of electrolytic
aluminum produced by green energy in Europe and the United States is 75–90%,
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 161

Table 4.5 Analysis of carbon emission reduction potential of different technical routes
No. Technical route Emission reduction potential Remark
1 Strengthening of carbon asset High Management measures
management
2 Promotion and application of Medium Technical measures/carbon
new energy-saving emission reduction
technology and equipment technologies
3 Phase-out of some backward High Structural e adjustment
production capacities
4 Use of clean energy in power Huge Green energy
grid
5 Increase of proportion of High Structural e adjustment
recycled aluminum
6 Zero carbon emission High Carbon emission reduction
technology technology
7 Negative carbon emission High Carbon emission reduction
project development technology
8 Energy efficiency increase Low Technical measures

and assuming that the proportion of electrolytic aluminum produced by green energy
is required to achieve 75% for the carbon neutrality of CHINALCO, the emission
reduction potential of different technical routes is analyzed, as shown in Table 4.5:
(4) Basic path for low-carbon transformation of aluminum processing industry
It is analyzed that the “key” for carbon emission reduction of the aluminum industry
lies in electrolytic aluminum, and the key to the carbon emission reduction of elec-
trolytic aluminum lies in the use of clean energy in the power grid. The paths for
low-carbon transformation in the aluminum processing industry are described below.
Vigorously promote the structure adjustment of upstream raw materials and
develop circular economy
According to the calculated carbon footprint of aluminum products manufactured by
Chinalco Advanced Manufacturing Co., Ltd., the carbon footprint of raw materials
accounts for 91%, indicating that the key to the carbon emission reduction is the
reduction of carbon footprint of raw materials. To reduce the carbon footprint of raw
materials, the following measures are recommended: (1) increase the proportion of
green raw materials, and especially, increase the application of clean energy such
as hydroenergy, solar energy and wind energy in the production of virgin aluminum
ingots and other raw materials; (2), develop clustered industries, promote the indus-
trial agglomeration development, reduce carbon emissions from logistics and trans-
port, promote electrolytic aluminum alloying and reduce secondary remelting to
reduce energy consumption, metal loss and carbon emissions caused by secondary
remelting, deploy the industry in clean energy concentration areas, and promote
energy cascade utilization, waste recycling and pollutant centralized disposal; (3),
162 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

improve the recycled aluminum recycling system, develop circular economy, estab-
lish a complete aluminum scrap recycling channel, equip all necessary recycling
equipment, increase the digestion capacity of internal and purchased aluminum scrap,
focus on the research and development of the aluminum scrap grading recycling
technology, and explore the feasibility of “upgrading” recycling; (4), seize the low-
carbon development opportunity to promote end-use carbon emission reduction, and
continue to promote the application of aluminum in aerospace, national defense and
military industry, new energy, transport, building structure, packaging, electronics,
catalysis, medicine, energy conservation, environmental protection and other fields;
vigorously promote the application of new aluminum materials in the fields such as
automobile lightweight, aluminum furniture and aluminum conductor materials, and
actively promote the strategies including “substitution of aluminum for steel”, “sub-
stitution of aluminum for wood” and “application of aluminum for plastic saving”,
so as to maximize the social benefits of aluminum in carbon emission reduction.
Comprehensively promote the energy-saving transformation and the applica-
tion of clean energy to reduce carbon emissions of aluminum production
According to the calculated carbon footprint of aluminum products manufactured by
Chinalco Advanced Manufacturing Co., Ltd., the carbon emissions in the processing
process account for about 9%, which mainly come from the use of purchased power
and heat and the combustion of natural gas. Therefore, the energy-saving transfor-
mation of aluminum production and the application of clean energy are very impor-
tant. To reduce carbon emissions in processing process, the following measures
are recommended: (1), continuously optimize the product process to continuously
improve the comprehensive yield of products and reduce the energy waste in the
process; (2), strengthen equipment management and improve equipment operation
efficiency; (3), enhance automation, informatization and intelligence, implement
special energy-saving technology transformation, promote waste heat utilization and
water saving technology, and develop projects such as waste heat and pressure utiliza-
tion, biomass energy, air compressor transformation, motor frequency conversion
transformation, etc.; (4), adjust the energy structure, increase the proportion of clean
energy, and rationally deploy distributed energy such as wind energy and solar energy;
(5), strengthen the energy-saving review of fixed asset investment projects, strictly
implement the energy assessment, environmental assessment and carbon assessment
systems for new projects, M&A projects and other incremental projects, and promote
energy conservation and carbon emission reduction from the source and the whole
process to avoid a sharp rise in carbon emissions; (6), carry out clean production
audit and energy audit, reduce the environmental impact of the whole product life
cycle, reduce the raw material consumption and energy consumption of enterprises,
improve the use efficiency of materials and energy, investigate possible problems,
tap the energy-saving potential, put forward practical energy-saving measures and
implement them.
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 163

Carry out carbon asset management and lay out the carbon market in advance
With the deepening of global climate governance, energy conservation and emission
reduction, and the expanding of global influence of carbon trading, carbon assets
have attracted more concerns. How to obtain more carbon assets has become one
of the important tasks for the future development of enterprises. As an important
policy instrument to achieve carbon neutrality, carbon trading provides a way for
enterprises to obtain more carbon assets.
For this purpose, enterprises shall, first, gradually build a team which has been
professional trained and has corresponding professional knowledge and excellent
quality; secondly, make a layout in advance, investigate the situation of carbon emis-
sions of the enterprise, and obtain sufficient carbon quotas after being included in
the carbon market; third, adopt the contract energy management mode, actively
develop projects such as BAPV projects, distributed wind power project, waste heat
and residual pressure utilization projects, biomass energy projects, motor frequency
conversion transformation projects, etc., and actively develop voluntary greenhouse
gas emission reduction certification projects such as wind power projects, PV power
projects, forest carbon sink projects, etc., to reserve enough carbon assets.
Make research on negative carbon technology to move towards carbon
neutrality
Carbon neutrality of enterprise will be impossible only by carbon market as well
as energy conservation and carbon reduction. The carbon market is for enterprise
to obtain more carbon quotas but not to achieve carbon emission reduction goal.
Once reduced by energy conservation and emission reduction to a certain extent,
the carbon emission becomes hard to further reduce again. Therefore, the negative
carbon technology will be the main path for enterprises to achieve carbon neutrality.
At present, there are mainly two kinds of negative carbon technologies, namely,
negative emission technology (NET) and carbon capture, utilization and storage
technology (CCUS). Enterprises are recommended to focus on the development of
negative carbon technology in the future, and seize the opportunity to deploy negative
carbon technology by means of investment cooperation.
Develop carbon finance to promote the achievement of carbon peak and carbon
neutrality goals
Carbon finance generally refers to all financial activities that serve to limit greenhouse
gas emissions, including direct investment and financing, carbon index trading and
bank loans, which is mainly intended to guide the flow of funds to the development
of carbon emission reduction technologies. Carbon financial instruments are divided
into three types, namely transaction type, financing type and support type, and mainly
include carbon trading, CCER, carbon futures, carbon forward, carbon swap, carbon
option, carbon bond, carbon pledge/mortgage, carbon fund/trust, carbon asset buy-
back, carbon asset custody, carbon index, carbon insurance, etc.
With the development of the national carbon market, enterprises can apply for
carbon emission reduction loans in a timely manner against the PBOC’s carbon
164 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

emission reduction support instruments for construction projects such as clean energy
projects and energy conservation and carbon reduction projects, so as to reduce
the financing cost of enterprises and realize the mutual promotion and cooperative
development of carbon emission reduction with corporate investment and financing.
(5) Conclusions and recommendations
In March, 2021, the International Aluminum Institute (IAI) issued the Aluminum
Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathway 2050, which proposed the global aluminum
industry greenhouse gas emission reduction target. With reference to this target,
and in combination with the current CO2 emission status of China’s aluminum
industry as well as the non-ferrous industry goal proposed by the China Nonfer-
rous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA) to peak carbon emission by 2025 and
achieve 40% carbon emission reduction by 2040, the low-carbon transformation of
China aluminum industry, which though has taken measures to control the output
of electrolytic aluminum and phase out backward production capacity, cannot be
achieved only by capacity regulation and technology upgrading. In order to achieve
the carbon emission reduction target, the following measures are recommended for
the aluminum industry:
(1) Optimize the industrial layout, create a clustered industrial base, promote the
industrial agglomeration development, reduce carbon emissions in the process
of logistics transportation and metal remelting, realize the optimal combination
of electrolytic aluminum plants, casting plants and aluminum processing enter-
prises in the production of aluminum materials and final products, and reduce
the burning loss and energy consumption by increasing the proportion of direct
molten aluminum casting and rolling;
(2) Create a closed-loop aluminum scrap recycling system, and promote the replace-
ment of virgin aluminum with recycled aluminum. Promote the establishment
of a sound national resource recycling system, solve the problems in waste recy-
cling in society, improve the recycled metal recycling system, increase invest-
ment in research and development of recycled non-ferrous metals, improve the
quality of recycled aluminum and avoid degrading recycling;
(3) Optimize the energy structure, increase the proportion of clean energy in the
aluminum industry, urge enterprises to actively adjust the energy consumption
structure, and improve the role of the market mechanism in emission reduc-
tion (for example, incorporate the aluminum industry into the carbon trading
market as soon as possible), improve the certified emission reduction (CCER)
methodology in the aluminum industry, and restart the CCER system as soon
as possible.

4.2.4.4 Low-Carbon Development of Auto Plastics

Since the 1950s, the output of polymer materials has exceeded 8 billion tons. Polymer
material has extended to almost all aspects of human life, and embraces a growing
demand [45]. As the most widely used polymer material, plastic is widely applied
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 165

in the automotive industry because of its strong plasticity, light weight and high
recycling rate. More and more plastics are used in interior trim, exterior trim and
functional structural parts of vehicle [46–48]. According to statistics, the average
consumption of plastic on each self-produced vehicle in China is about 80 kg, while
that on medium and high-grade vehicles in developed countries is 100–120 kg. In
recent years when lightweight has been a development trend of the automotive
industry, the application proportion of plastics in vehicle is gradually increasing,
which, however, also brings about a large number of waste auto plastics to be treated.
With the increase of plastic production year by year, more and more waste plastics
are produced and have become an important source of environmental pollution and a
key problem of resource recycling due to their poor degradability and recyclability.
Its negative impact on the environment and organisms is growing, and especially, the
concern on the ecological environmental problems caused by plastic waste, marine
plastics, micro plastics, etc. is increasing [49–51].
Global warming has consistently been the focus of research and attention in recent
years. The adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 further promoted countries
around the world to set greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, and China has
also set the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [52, 53] in 2020. Life cycle
assessment (LCA) is a standardized environmental impact assessment method, which
can scientifically and comprehensively analyze various environmental impact prob-
lems, including ecotoxicity, resource consumption, global warming, etc. [54, 55].
The calculation theory of the carbon footprint of products (CFP) is in essence a
LCA method based on single environmental impact category, that is, calculating the
sum of all greenhouse gas emissions and removals within the boundary of the whole
system, which is expressed by carbon dioxide equivalent, and can be referenced in
ISO14067-2018.
The research shows that automobile lightweight can effectively reduce fuel
consumption and carbon emissions. Specifically, each 10% decrease of vehicle mass
will bring a fuel consumption decrease of 6–8%, and a carbon emission decrease of
4–10%. At present, the automobile lightweight strategy of substitution of plastic for
steel has brought a good carbon reduction effect to the vehicle, as detailed below:
First, from the perspective of carbon emission of materials per unit weight, the carbon
footprint of most plastics is far lower than that of metals, and in the production stage,
plastics produce lower carbon emissions than metals and other traditional automo-
tive materials [56–59]; Second, from the perspective of vehicle operation, statistics
show that every 100 kg of vehicle weight reduction will enable a reduction of fuel
consumption per 100 km by 0.4 L, and a CO2 emission reduction by 1 kg. The plastic
reduces the weight of the vehicle, and accordingly, the energy consumption in the
vehicle operation stage, thus helping to reduce the carbon emission in the operation
stage [59–61]; Third, from the perspective of material recycling stage, most non-
ferrous metals are recycled by remelting method, while most plastics are recycled by
machines, and the machine consumes less energy than the remelting process, thus
helping to reduce carbon emissions in the recycling stage [62–64].
At present, most of the raw materials of polymer materials are fossil-based mate-
rials. Therefore, most studies on carbon emission reduction of polymer materials are
166 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

focused first on the adoption of better waste disposal methods (such as substitution
of recycled plastics for primary plastics to reduce carbon emissions), and then on
substitution of bio-based materials for fossil-based materials to reduce environmental
impact [65–74]. The life cycle of plastic recycling starts from raw material, and the
links involved are as follows (listed in sequence): raw material processing—product
manufacturing—product packaging, transport and sales—use, reuse and mainte-
nance by customers—recycling or treatment/disposal. Now the economic model
of auto plastics is developing towards circular economy. In the future, it is more
possible to convert waste auto plastics into recyclable resources to make the plastics
fully recycled and realize low-carbon sustainable development of vehicle materials
[72–78]. Besides, plastics will play an important role in the automobile lightweight
and low-carbon transformation in the future, and the proportion of plastics in automo-
tive materials will gradually increase, which also indicates that new environmentally
friendly polymer materials with excellent performance and low carbon content are
the development direction of auto plastics in the future. Based on the trend anal-
ysis above, it is predicted that the following carbon emission reduction pathways of
polymer materials will be possible:
1. Material substitution: ➀ From the perspective of carbon emission of resin raw
materials, use plastic raw materials with low carbon emission to replace those
with high carbon emission, which is expected to be completed from 2025 to
2035 if recycled plastics are used; ➁ Use non fossil-based materials to replace
fossil-based materials, such as bio-based polymer materials and new energy-
carbon source coupled polymer materials, which is expected to be completed
from 2035 to 2050; ➂ Make research on near zero carbon polymer materials and
negative carbon polymer materials: develop near zero carbon polymer materials
and negative carbon polymer materials through technological innovation to assist
in the realization of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals through carbon
emission reduction and carbon offset, which is expected to be completed from
2040 to 2060;
2. Recycling technology optimization: ➀ Expansion of recycling scope: expand
the recycling scope of waste plastics through unorganized recycling of plastic
wastes in rivers, lakes and seas, which is expected to be completed from 2035
to 2050; ➁ Upgrading of recycling technology route: transform from traditional
physical recycling to chemical recycling, which is expected to be completed from
2035 to 2050; and transform from basis material recycling to additive recycling,
which is expected to be completed from 2050 to 2060.
At present, the plastics used on vehicles mainly include polypropylene (PP),
polyethylene (PE), polyamide (PA) and other polymer materials, of which PP is
mainly applied for bumpers, instrument panels, door inner trim panels, etc.; PE is
mainly applied for inner guard plates, fuel tanks, wipers, etc.; PA is mainly applied
for gears, belt pulleys, water pump impeller, etc.; These three materials account for
more than 70% of the total amount of auto plastics used, and therefore are selected as
the research objects., with 1 kg of modified plastic product selected as the functional
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 167

unit, and cradle-to-gate selected as the system boundary, as shown in Figs. 4.30 and
4.31.
According to ISO14067, GWP 100a is selected as the environmental impact index,
and the model is built based on above-mentioned carbon emission reduction analysis
and trend prediction. The carbon emission intensity of PP, PE and PA modified
plastics in the next 40 years is simulated and evaluated, as shown in Table 4.6.

Fig. 4.30 System boundary of primary and recycled modified plastic products

Fig. 4.31 Comparison of carbon emission of Covestro’s first Makrolon® RE polycarbonate with
zero carbon footprint
 168

Table 4.6 Prediction of carbon emission intensity trend of modified plastics from 2021 to 2060
Year 2021 2025 2035 2040 2050 2060
Path / Material Material Material Material Near zero
substitution—recycled substitution—recycled substitution—bio-based substitution—bio-based carbon materials
plastics plastics plastics + recycled plastics + recycled and negative
materials materials carbon materials
+ recycled
materials
Parameter 1 kg PP modified plastic
Carbon 100 79 58 42 29 17
emission
intensity of
PP modified
plastics
Carbon 100 71 51 37 29 14
emission
intensity of
HDPE
modified
plastics
PA6 100 87 67 56 30 13
Average of 100 79 59 45 29 15
modified
plastics
4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 169

To sum up, low-carbon transformation is an important development direction for

the automotive industry in recent years and also in the future. China still falls far
behind of the developed countries in the application amount of plastics on vehicle,
which also indicates that plastics have a wide application prospect in China’s automo-
tive industry, and that the carbon emission reduction of auto plastics is a sustained and
long-term process. Therefore, the carbon emission reduction pathways of auto plas-
tics shall be selected in combination with the actual development of the automotive
industry and the relevant technologies of the plastic industry to ensure step-by-step
achievement of the carbon emission reduction goal.
Based on the analysis of the existing industry technology and the prediction for the
future, the following measures are recommended: (1) continue to strengthen the eval-
uation of the carbon reduction effect of “substitution of plastics for steel” strategy
to further reduce carbon emissions in the manufacturing and use stages through
lightweight; (2) use recycled plastics to gradually replace the primary plastics, and
then use bio-based materials to replace fossil-based materials to further reduce the
carbon emissions of the automotive industry; (3) develop near zero carbon materials
and negative carbon materials to promote the achievement of carbon neutrality in
the automotive industry. Now that carbon emission is not a mandatory requirement
in China, it is also recommended that the state should introduce relevant regula-
tions to implement mandatory pilot for carbon emission reduction of materials in
the automotive industry, so as to give fully play to the role of recycled materials in
carbon emission reduction of the automotive industry. Considering that the recycled
materials are widely sourced and not even in quality, it is recommended that the
state should issue relevant policies to require recycled plastics to be subject to the
qualification of professional laboratories and qualification agencies, so as to promote
the safe use of recycled materials in the automotive industry. It is also recommended
that the relevant national departments reward the enterprises that have made great
contributions or outstanding achievements in the carbon emission reduction of auto-
motive materials to encourage or stimulate the recycling of automotive materials, and
meanwhile, increase the support and subsidies for the research and development of
lightweight technology of automotive materials. In addition, automobile lightweight
also depends on the availability of the leading new composite material production
process and technology in the plastic industry. Therefore, the state is also required to
build relevant platforms, strengthen the cooperation between plastic enterprises and
automobile enterprises, and accelerate the R&D and production of new auto plastic
products.

4.2.4.5 Low-Carbon Transformation of Covestro Materials

As a response to the policies on carbon emission management at home and abroad,

the whole life cycle of automobile products will be gradually incorporated into low-
carbon management by automobile enterprises, and then, carbon emission related
indicators will be gradually introduced into all kinds of automobile products. In the
170 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

next five years with the in-depth implementation of the low-carbon policy, calcula-
tion of carbon emission reduction merits and identification of key technology paths
will become compulsory courses for material manufacturers serving the automotive
industry.
Covestro, as a supplier of polymerization materials, has formulated scientific
carbon emission targets and specific roadmap based on its characteristics to develop
and cultivate low-carbon technologies, and is committed to developing and providing
“low-carbon” products for automobile manufacturers. In addition, Covestro has also
positively explored the possibility of establishment of a carbon neutral management
system covering the whole supply chain jointly with upstream and downstream enter-
prises of the automotive industry chain, and the adoption of digital transformation
to empower and follow the carbon risk management. The focus of this section is to
discuss low-carbon materials of polycarbonate, passenger car coatings, polyurethane
materials and adhesives, as well as the material solutions of relevant carbon emission
reduction processes.
(1) Makrolon® RE polycarbonate with zero carbon footprint
Covestro has developed the world’s first Makrolon® RE polycarbonate with zero
carbon footprint and has put it into commercial production. The comparison of
carbon emission of this product with existing Makrolon® polycarbonate is shown
in Fig. 4.31.
The key of Makrolon® RE polycarbonate with zero carbon footprint lies in raw
materials and energy consumption. For the raw material, the partially biomass-
contained material is used, which is produced based on the mass balance method
(it is a chain of custody method that allows fossil materials and alternative materials
to be mixed in production, but separated in the carbon register, so that materials can
be tracked through the value chain and alternative materials such as bio-based raw
materials can be allocated to the selected end products), and in which traditional
fossil materials are replaced by biological wastes, so that the products manufac-
tured from this material boasts a substantially lower carbon emission than those
products manufactured from fossil-based materials. For the energy consumption,
“green electricity” is used in production. Covestro’s production base in Uerdingen,
Germany has obtained the “Traceability Certificate of Affordable Grid-connected
Green Electricity” from the German PV power stations, and the green electricity will
be distributed to meet specific power needs of processes crucial to the production
of polycarbonate, including the electrolytic hydrogen production process. In short,
by introducing renewable electricity into the production process and using partially
biomass-contained material, Covestro’s Makrolon® RE polycarbonate achieves zero
carbon emissions from cradle to gate*. (* The life cycle assessment from cradle to
gate covers all stages from raw material refining (cradle) to transportation out of
the factory gate to the customer, which is based on ISO14040/14044 and has been
certified by TÜV Rheinland, and in which the supply chain data is used, and the
carbon absorption of organisms as well as the use of renewable energy in Covestro’s
production process are considered.)
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 171

The partially biomass-contained material mentioned above includes phenol

and acetone produced based on the mass balance method. By these two mate-
rials, Bisphenol A (BPA) can be synthesized, which is an essential monomer
for polycarbonate polymerization, with the chemical reaction formula shown in
Fig. 4.32:
Then, through further reaction of BPA with phosgene, the polycarbonate is poly-
merized. Since biomass materials are used in the monomer molecular synthesis stage
(molecular level), the macro performance of the polymer has no difference from that
of the polymer based on traditional fossil materials, as shown in Table 4.7.
The processing conditions of Makrolon® RE polycarbonate and existing
Makrolon® polycarbonate are the same, as shown in Table 4.8.

Fig. 4.32 Chemical reaction formula for the synthesis of Bisphenol A from phenol and acetone

Table 4.7 Comparison of physical properties of Covestro’s first Makrolon® RE polycarbonate with
zero carbon footprint
Performance Test conditions Unit Standard Makrolon® 2807 Makrolon® 2807
RE
Melt 300 °C/1.2 kg cm3 /10 min ISO 1133 9.0 9.0
volume-flow
rate
Tensile 1 mm/min MPa ISO 2400 2400
modulus 527-1, -2
Yield stress 50 mm/min MPa ISO 66 66
527-1, -2
Yield strain 50 mm/min % ISO 6.1 6.1
527-1, -2
Izod notched 23 °C/3 mm kJ/m2 Basis: 70Pa 70P
impact ISO
strength 180/A
a P indicates partial break

Table 4.8 Comparison of processing performance of Covestro’s first Makrolon® RE polycarbonate

with zero carbon footprint
Recommended forming process parameters Unit Makrolon® 2807 Makrolon® 2807 RE
Standard melt temperature °C 300 300
Mold temperature °C 80–120 80–120
172 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

(2) Application of recycled polycarbonate in automotive industry

Covestro has also been devoted in the recycling process at the end of the automobile
life cycle, using certified recycled products (PCR materials and PIR materials) to
develop direct alternative products based on recycled materials.
Polycarbonate used for auto lamps features high purity and easy processing. Poly-
carbonate can be recycled by strictly selecting the source of recovery materials,
and by adding virgin materials into the recovered polycarbonate, the PCR mate-
rial is produced, which can then be down-graded and used as raw materials for the
production of notebook computers, printers, chargers and other electronic equip-
ment. Through life cycle assessment of finished products, it shows that the PCR
polycarbonate with a maximum content of 75% allows for a carbon emission up to
50% lower than virgin material. Besides, PCR polycarbonate’s impact resistance,
heat resistance, thin-wall design capability and flame retardancy are as excellent
as those virgin materials. For example, Bayblend® FR3040EV (PC/ABS alloy) can
be applied to the battery base of electric vehicles, and its corresponding product
containing PCR material is Bayblend® FR3040 R35. The comparison of those two
materials in physical properties and processing performance is shown in Tables 4.9
and 4.10.

Table 4.9 Comparison of physical properties of Covestro’s PC/ABS product and its corresponding
product containing PCR material
Performance Test Unit Standard Bayblend® FR3040EV Bayblend® FR3040
conditions R35
Melt 240 °C/5 kg cm3 /10 min ISO 17 18
volume-flow 1133
rate
Tensile 1 mm/min MPa ISO 2700 2550
modulus 527–1,
-2
Yield stress 50 mm/min MPa ISO 65 65
527–1,
-2
Yield strain 50 mm/min % ISO 4.0 4.2
527–1,
-2
Stress to 50 mm/min MPa ISO 50 49
break 527–1,
-2
Izod notched 23 °C kJ/m2 ISO 30 35
impact 180/A
strength
Vicat 50 N, °C ISO 108 105
softening 120 °C/h 180/A
temperature
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 173

Table 4.10 Comparison of processing performance of Covestro’s PC/ABS product and its
corresponding product containing PCR material
Recommended forming Unit Bayblend® FR3040EV Bayblend® FR3040 R35
process parameters
Melt temperature °C 240–270 250–290
Mold temperature °C 60–90 70–100

From the comparison of PC/ABS product with its corresponding product

containing PCR material in physical property and processing performance, the
product containing PCR material may involve certain changes compared with the
original product, and the main reasons for these changes are as follows:
1. PCR material will be partially degraded during use and recycling. Taking the
lamp materials as an example, most of the recovered lamp materials are disman-
tled from end-of-life vehicles, which are inevitably degraded somehow after
long-term use (such as repeatedly heating and cooling by the light source) and
long-term ultraviolet radiation (aging). In addition, some lamps may be coated,
and during the processing of the recovered material, those coatings need to be
removed by physical and chemical means before shredding and cleaning, and in
this process, the recovered lamp material will also be partially degraded. Finally,
a considerable degree of degradation will occur when the shredded material is
re-pelletized.
2. The source of PCR materials fluctuates greatly. Polycarbonate recycling enter-
prises may recover materials from different application sources, such as lamp,
plate, housing, disc and etc., and generally classify these recovered materials
according to the range of melt index. The melt index can reflect the average
molecular weight level of recovered materials, but their application sources can
rarely be distinguished. In addition, the melt index can reflect neither the molec-
ular weight distribution nor the type and content of different additives of the
recovered material, and therefore, it is often the case that the performance of
products manufactured from the recycled material fluctuates more compared
with the products manufactured from virgin materials.
The composite made of polycarbonate (PC) also has excellent recyclability. By
cutting the prepreg scraps, product processing scraps and scrapped parts (PIR) into
a certain size via second pelleting, and then blending it with new PC pellets and
other additives for mixed pelleting, the short carbon fiber reinforced PC pellets can
be obtained. This kind of pellet may show a unique pattern like natural marble after
processing on the part surface. As a composite material, it can not only help reduce
the weight of the product greatly, but also bring more design space and inspiration.
GAC’s electric concept car ENO.146 is an example which applies Covestro’s PIR
“marble” plate for the seat back.
If the recycling with chemical reaction (monomer source) is referred to as “chem-
ical recycling” and the recycling without chemical reaction as “physical recycling”,
174 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

it can be found that the chemical recycling has little impact on the performance of the
final product but costs more, and physical recycling has a relatively large impact on
the performance of the final product and requires adjustment of formula or change
of application scenarios.
(3) Bio-based coating and new process coating system
Passenger car coating refers to the coating applied to the body and parts of various
passenger cars, which can be divided according to the application scenario as Auto
OEM coating and refinish coating. According to industry estimates, the total amount
of passenger car coatings in China will reach about 270,000 tons in 2021 (excluding
CED). China is then become the largest producer and consumer of passenger car
coatings in the world and will see stable growth in production and consumption of
passenger car coatings in the future.
In face of such a large market size, if the low carbon technology can be applied,
the carbon emission reduction will be very remarkable. At present, the research and
development of domestic and foreign enterprises in carbon emission reduction is
mainly focused on the following:
Type I: use more renewable raw materials to replace petroleum-based materials
to achieve the purpose of carbon emission reduction, for which the renewable raw
materials available for use include here include biomass, waste, and even CO2 . If
the biomass is used, the material can be divided according to the possibility of direct
testing in the materials into (partially) bio-based materials and mass-balanced mate-
rials (as described earlier), between which the (partially) bio-based materials allows
for determination of the content of contained biomass by tracking C14. Taking the
two-component polyurethane clear coat for automobile as an example, the partially
bio-based material can be selected as the curing agent in the coating, with part of
its raw materials obtained from renewable plants, such as corn. Compared with the
petroleum-based material of same type, the partially bio-based material, with the
excellent performance not affected, allows for a carbon emission of 30% lower and
less dependence on non-renewable resources such as petroleum. At the China Inter-
national Import Expo (CIIE) in 2021, Covestro, Voyah and PPG jointly launched
the partially bio-based clear coat solution, which have been put into use. For mass-
balanced materials, the supplier is required to provide a content report, which cannot
be tested directly through C14. At present, we can find that companies with leadership
in the industrial chain have attempt to apply such new material.
Type II: apply more lean processes for carbon emission reduction. For example,
(1) simplify processes, to reduce carbon emissions. Some lean coating processes
(such as b1b2) are derived from this concept. Even some pioneers in the automotive
industry have begun to combine plastic parts and metal bodies in the same painting
line, which can reduce CO2 emission significantly compared to traditional process.
(2) reduce the energy consumption of a process for carbon emission reduction, for
example, use a low temperature curing coating that can reduce energy consumption
by lowering the oven temperature. The current technology allows the coating to cure
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 175

at 100 °C or even below, which will make remarkable contributions to the energy
conservation and carbon emission reduction of automobile enterprises in the process
of vehicle body coating.
(4) MDI with zero carbon footprint: a kind of low-carbon PU material and
adhesive for automotive industry
Covestro has started to provide customers with a kind of MDI (methylenediphenyl
diisocyanate) with zero carbon footprint, which is applied with the alternative mate-
rial based on plant waste through the ISCC PLUS certified mass balance method,
thus achieving zero carbon emissions from cradle to gate. This new MDI can be
widely used in the fields of construction, cold chain and automobile. Currently, the
production of MDI with zero carbon footprint and its precursors are undertaken by
the Caojing Integrated Production Base in Shanghai, the Krefeld-Uerdingen Base
in Germany and the Antwerp Base in Belgium, all of which have passed the ISCC
PLUS certification.
By applying the mass balance method (as described above), alternative raw mate-
rials are introduced into the industrial chain, and meanwhile the existing efficient
chemical production infrastructure with economies of scale are fully used, so as to
accelerate the transformation of the chemical industry to a circular economy. Cove-
stro’s MDI with zero carbon footprint is a directly applicable solution, that is to say,
customers can apply it in production immediately without changing the process flow,
and the final product quality will not be affected.
MDI is the main raw material of polyurethane, which is widely applied for produc-
tion of instrument panels, trunk floors, headlining, seats and armrests, and for filling
of cavities. The vigorous development of new energy vehicles also poses higher
requirements for the lightweight and performance of battery packs. The battery cover
solution using composite polyurethane materials instead of metal materials can not
only meet the performance requirements for high temperature resistance and flame
retardancy, but also greatly reduce the weight of the product.
In addition to the “visible” exterior body and interior environmentally-friendly
materials, attention should also be paid to the low-carbon application of “invisible”
interior materials. Similarly, by applying the mass balance method, Covestro has
successfully provided the world’s leading adhesive manufacturers with low-carbon
footprint polyurethane materials prepared from renewable materials (such as plant
waste, waste oil and vegetable oil) for the production of polyurethane reactive hot
melt adhesive. In addition, the water-based polyurethane resin products based on
bio-based materials are also worth exploring and researching in the future.
According to the joint study and prediction of Material Economics and several
EU climate organizations in 2018, if the production of major industrial raw materials
is introduced into the circular economy model, carbon emissions can be reduced by
56% in 2050, and the two strategies, including material recycling and material
use efficiency, contribute nearly 80% of the total carbon emission reduction, both of
which, however, depends on proper material selection. Material recycling strategy
refers to the increase of material recycling to reduce the input of new materials;
For example, select recycled materials to avoid the use of new materials, which
176 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

will also create market demand for recycled materials at the same time. Material
use efficiency strategy refers to the reduction of use of materials required for each
unit product in the manufacturing process; For example, select lighter and stronger
materials, or materials with higher preparation efficiency. Circular business model
refers to the use of changes in business model to reduce the amount of products
required to meet specific needs, such as product servitization with the main benefits
coming from changes in business model.
Covestro’s vision is to fully embrace circular economy. For this reason, Covestro
is striving to practice the circular economy concept in R&D, design, production,
sales and after-sales service of product.
In conclusion, polymers will continue to play an important role in energy conser-
vation and emission reduction of both conventional fuel vehicles and battery-based
new energy vehicles in the future. Automobile enterprises will also put forward
to polymer manufacturers more requirements for polymers of zero carbon foot-
print or low carbon footprint, and polymer manufacturers are required to further
reduce the cost of low-carbon products through innovation to make the products
more popularized on a large scale.

4.2.5 Path 5: Production Digitalization

(1) Background

Currently with the increasing demand for automobiles, China has become the largest
automobile producer and seller in the world. The automotive industry is also one of
the key carbon consumption sectors in China, and how to achieve accurate low-carbon
control and management has become important issue facing the whole automotive
industry. Industrial digitalization refers to the use of new-generation information
technologies such as big data, cloud computing and artificial intelligence to connect
human, machine, material, process, environment and other elements involved in the
industry together and to realize the optimal allocation of resources in the whole
industry chain and value chain through carbon data quantification, carbon data opti-
mization and intelligent control. It is an important foundation of the new industrial
revolution and a necessary transformation path for the low-carbon transformation of
the automotive industry.
For the low-carbon transformation of automotive industry and parts industry, four
main paths, including transformation of energy structure from high-carbon energy
structure to clean energy structure, transformation of energy management from exten-
sive management to precise management, building of process low-carbon optimiza-
tion capacity, and building of low-carbon product innovation capacity, are available,
as shown in Fig. 4.33. Since the clean energy has been extensively discussed in the
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 177

Fig. 4.33 Main paths for low-carbon transformation of automotive industry

previous chapters., this section will focus on analyzing the role of industrial digital-
ization technology in the low-carbon transformation of the automotive industry from
the latter three paths.

(2) Industrial digitalization technology will promote the low-carbon transfor-

mation of automotive industry
Digitalization technology empowers “precise energy control” to ensure quan-
tification and traceability
The rational use of energy not only affects the normal operation of production, but
also plays a very important role in the effective guarantee of product quality and
the gradual reduction of energy conservation and carbon reduction indicators. At
present, the energy management mode of the automotive industry and parts industry
still faces a series of problems, such as manual data collection, complex analysis and
sorting, delayed event processing and extensive management process. The industrial
digitalization technology, through the deep integration of big data, cloud computing,
industrial Internet and other new-generation information technologies with energy
management, allows for quantifiable, optimized and intelligent closed-loop energy
control. As shown in Fig. 4.34, digitalization technology and energy management
form a double helix pattern, further promoting the low-carbon transformation of
automotive industry and parts industry.
As shown in Fig. 4.35, energy quantification refers to collection and monitoring
of the data of water, electricity, gas and other energies through the empowerment of
industrial IoT, industrial Internet and other technologies, so as to realize real-time
alarm, and through the application of data statistics method including successive
period comparison and comparison with the same period, realize the closed-loop
energy control from planning to statistics and then to assessment. Energy optimiza-
tion refers to the use of artificial intelligence, big data and other technologies to opti-
mize models and algorithms based on monitored data, so as to realize the real-time
optimized operation of the energy system, reduce energy consumption and improve
carbon efficiency. Intelligent energy control refers to the application of digital twin,
remote control and other technologies to intelligently control equipment parameters
or process parameters of the factory based on the energy optimization analysis results,
178 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

Fig. 4.34 Double helix model of industrial digitalization and energy management

and finally complete the comprehensive balancing and scheduling optimization of

energy in key links.
To sum up, industrial digitalization technology is able to record enterprise
energy data, enabling more accurate energy control and carbon emission accounting.
Besides, it can be combined with blockchain and other technologies to form a real,
effective and tamper-proof energy (carbon) data link and build an enterprise energy
(carbon) digital credit system.
Digitalization technology empowers low-carbon production to ensure optimiza-
tion and popularization
With the continuous promotion of intelligent manufacturing, the production lines of
the automotive industry and parts industry are becoming more and more advanced,
and have basically realized “standardized and automated process”. But by contrast,
the production process and raw material technology of the enterprises are relatively
backward. For example, in the production of auto parts, die-casting parameter setting,
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 179

Fig. 4.35 Precise energy control model

machining tool adjustment and management and other processes still rely on oper-
ator’s experience, resulting in serious waste of raw materials, energy and equipment,
and difficulty in improvement of the carbon efficiency. With the low-carbon transfor-
mation of the automotive industry and parts industry, it is urgent to realize “knowledge
standardization and automation” through digitalization technology, so as to promote
the optimization of low-carbon production process.
Aluminum is one of the most important metal materials for automobile manufac-
turing, and is widely applied in body frame, engine, bumper, wheel, battery system,
various parts and components, etc. of the vehicle. However, the aluminum industry
is a high energy consuming and carbon emitted industry. According to statistics, its
carbon emission in 2020 was about 426 million tCO2 e, accounting for about 5% of the
total carbon emission of the whole society. Therefore, how to accurately control the
aluminum consumption is critical to the carbon emission reduction in the automotive
industry.
Taking the wheel as an example, its production processes mainly include smelting,
die casting, heat treatment, machining and coating, in which machining refers to a
process through which the heat-treated casting blank is tuned, drilled or otherwise
processed to make the shape and size of the wheel hub meet the concerning require-
ments. The processed aluminum wheels shall be such assembled with flange, cap,
bolt, balance weight, tire, valve and other accessories that the operation of brake disc,
steering knuckle and other components is not affected. As shown in Fig. 4.36, in the
traditional wheel machining process, technicians tend to adjust the process based on
their experience according to the basic state of the blank and the CMM inspection
180 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

Fig. 4.36 Problems involved in traditional hub machining process

results. But the number of machine tool and the dimension chain corresponding to
the machining position constitute a many-to-many mesh relationship, that is, one
machining position corresponds to multiple machine tool numbers, and when the
machine tool of one tool number is adjusted, multiple positions will be affected
simultaneously. Since the dimension chain is complex, it is difficult to ensure the
accurate control of the aluminum wheel size even if the manual adjustment and test
is repeated, while such repeated adjustment and test virtually increase the carbon
emission of raw material and process.
To solve these problems, CITIC Dicastal and CDJNJT jointly developed the “intel-
ligent tool compensation and adjustment solution” (as shown in Fig. 4.37), which
realizes the AI closed-loop adjustment of CNC machine through simulating the
dimension processing chain, analyzing and automatically issuing the adjustment
parameters, and what’s more important, it adopts a intelligent model to continuously
optimize the tool compensation knowledge map and precipitate the process experi-
ence, allowing for accurate control of the hub size. This solution realizes not only
the weight reduction of the wheel hub, but also the less consumption of raw material
carbon and process carbon.
To sum up, only by quantifying and optimizing the production process through
digitalization technology can we solve the experience-based process operation
existing in traditional manufacturing process, and promote the production automa-
tion, flexibility, digitalization, intelligence and low-carbon development of automo-
tive industry and parts industry.
Digitalization technology empowers “low-carbon product innovation” to ensure
designability and added value
At present, carbon neutrality has attracted global attention and become an interna-
tional consensus, and an international carbon trade barrier covering the whole life
cycle of vehicles has been formed. The automotive industry is a pillar industry of the
national economy. Due to the characteristics of long industry chain, wide coverage
and strong driving force, it has exerted great pressure on energy, resources and envi-
ronment in the four life cycle stages including raw material acquisition, vehicle
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 181

Fig. 4.37 Intelligent tool compensation and adjustment solution

production, vehicle use and steel scrap recycling. The carbon emission of the auto-
motive industry is largely determined by the design. In the traditional automobile
production process, the relevant performance of the vehicles is usually evaluated
after an event. However, with the increasing concern of the world on low carbon
and environmental protection, it is more necessary to make pre-event evaluation at
the beginning of automobile design, and make full use of industrial digitalization
technology to assist enterprises to take different low-carbon technical measures at
different stages of the automobile life cycle.
At present, some automobile enterprises abroad have established an automobile
innovation evaluation index system which covers low carbon, health, cost and other
aspects, and applied them to the whole life cycle process of automobiles to enable
the iterative upgrade of automobiles in different development processes, as described
below.
1. Benz: Environmental Management System
In order to cope with various challenges in automobile research and development,
and balance the interaction between different indicators and deal with the potential
contradictions in different development environments, Mercedes Benz has developed
an environmental management system based on ISO14001 Environmental manage-
ment systems, and built an index system for climate protection, air quality, resource
maintenance and health. Based on this system, functional factors, economic factors
and carbon emission factors are fully considered in the product design stage, and
indicator verification in the whole process of automobile R&D and production is
realized, so that the designers can make corresponding improvements to the product
structure according to the feedback results to finalize the optimal design scheme.
2. Toyota: Eco-Vehicle Assessment System
Toyota has thoroughly implemented the comprehensive environment assessment
standard of LCA, developed an eco-vehicle assessment system, and built an index
system from six aspects including fuel consumption, exhaust emission, noise in
the vehicle use stage, recyclability and reduction of environmentally hazardous
182 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

substances in the vehicle scrapping stage, and environmental impact in the whole
life cycle, so as to realize the tracking and inspection of carbon emission indicators
in the whole life cycle of vehicles, and therefore the iterative upgrade of the product.
3. Ford Europe: Product Sustainability Index (PSI)
In order to improve the environmental, health, economic and social performance of
products, Ford Europe has defined a product sustainability index, which mainly
includes life cycle air quality, life cycle cost, sustainable materials, safety and
mobility. By continuously tracking the PSI changes in the whole process of R&D,
Ford Europe can constantly make adjustments and improvements, and realize
iterative optimization of product development scheme.
To sum up, the decision-making in the automobile design and R&D stage
will affect 70–80% of the overall performance of the automobile, and an effec-
tive pre-event evaluation method will provide support for the decision-making of
different low-carbon approaches in different stages. Benz’s environmental manage-
ment system, Toyota’s eco-vehicle assessment system and Ford’s product sustain-
ability index are all for assessing various automobile indicators in the design and
development stage, and through feedback, satisfactory products will be produced
in a planned way and the carbon cost will be effectively controlled. Digitalization
technology allows for scientific evaluation of the adopted digitalization technology
in combination with different indicators in the whole life cycle of the automobile,
realizing low-carbon development of new products. It is recommended that domestic
automobile enterprises should establish a carbon neutrality-oriented pre-event eval-
uation system for the whole life cycle of automobiles, adjusting the data in real time
to obtain the evaluation results, and feeding the results back to the development plan
to build the low-carbon innovation capability of products.
(3) Prediction of emission reduction capacity
The industrial digitalization technology will help the automotive industry to achieve
precise energy management, low-carbon process and low-carbon product innovation,
and is the only way for the low-carbon transformation of the automotive industry.
As shown in Table 4.11, with the adoption of industrial digitalization technology, it
is expected that, the carbon emission from single vehicle production and the carbon
emission from battery will be reduced by more than 30% and more than 20% respec-
tively by 2025, reduced by more than 80% and more than 60% respectively by 2050,
and reduced by 100% and by more than 80% respectively by 2060. Therefore, under
the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, it is recommended to vigorously
promote the digitalization of the automotive industry.
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 183

Table 4.11 Prediction of carbon emission reduction rate of single vehicle production and battery
Category of Parameter 2021 (%) 2025 (%) 2030 (%) 2050 (%) 2060 (%)
scenario
category
Reference Carbon emission 100 20 40 60 80
scenarios reduction
percentage of
single vehicle
production
Low-carbon Carbon emission 100 30 50 80 100
scenario reduction
percentage of
single vehicle
production
Enhanced Carbon emission 100 40 60 100 100
low-carbon reduction
scenario percentage of
single vehicle
production
Reference Carbon emission 100 15 30 50 60
scenarios reduction
percentage of
battery
Low-carbon Carbon emission 100 20 40 60 80
scenario reduction
percentage of
battery
Enhanced Carbon emission 100 30 50 80 100
low-carbon reduction
scenario percentage of
battery

4.2.6 Path 6: Transportation Intelligence

4.2.6.1 Status-Quo and Problems

In recent years, the deeper integration of new technologies such as Internet, big data
and artificial intelligence with transportation has promoted the digital transformation
and intelligent upgrading of transportation. New formats and new products of trans-
portation services are continually being developed, traffic operation and management
modes are upgrading, and the people’s travel experience is improving.
New infrastructure and digitalization of transportation are accelerated. The
number and scale of intelligent highway projects is growing rapidly, intelligent
sensing technology is widely applied, and tests for bad weather driving guidance,
active safety prevention and control and other features are actively carried out [79].
The building information model (BIM) is widely used in highway industry [80]. The
184 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

GIS-T platform for the national highway network has been built. The demonstration
of transportation-energy integration has been actively carried out in some highway
projects, and for example, Shandong Rongwu Expressway and Shanghai Changxing
Island Service Area have launched distributed PV power generation tests.
Intelligence of transportation operation and control has been continuously
improved. The expressway video cloud platform has been basically completed,
which is connected to thousands of traffic flow monitoring devices, video devices and
ETC gantry devices. Hundreds of online ride hailing service enterprises and millions
of vehicles have been accessed to the online ride hailing service information inter-
action platform [81]. There have been major breakthroughs in the construction of
traffic “data brain” in cities such as Shenzhen and Hangzhou, and a comprehen-
sive transportation monitoring, simulation and intelligent dispatching system from
cross-sector cooperation has taken shape.
The innovative application of E-travel has achieved remarkable achievements.
The E-ticket application has covered 800 passenger transport terminals; the ETC
application rate of passenger cars on expressways has exceeded 70%, and the
expressway broadcasting system has covered 22 provinces; the all-in-one transporta-
tion card has realized the interconnection of 280 cities above prefecture level nation-
wide [81, 82]; new business types such as “E-travel” have emerged continuously, the
practice of travel reservation in specific scenarios has been gradually carried out, and
the scale and development level of online ride hailing service and bicycle sharing
service rank first in the world.
New models of intelligent logistics services are emerging. The e-AWB application
rate of major express delivery enterprises has reached 90%; more than 2.4 million
freight vehicles have been convened by various online freight enterprises [81, 82];
the application of intelligent technology for logistics transportation equipment is
becoming more and more mature, automatic guided vehicles (AGV), automatic trans-
portation & sorting systems and other intelligent devices have been put into large-
scale application in some logistics parks; the distribution center of postal express
industry has basically realized automatic sorting.
Cooperative vehicle infrastructure technology and autonomous driving tech-
nology are developing rapidly. Autonomous driving development enterprises have
started the development and test of conditional/high driving automation, pilot driver-
less taxis have been trial run in some cities, and driverless trucks have achieved
commercial operation in specific areas. Most of the new intelligent expressway
projects have a small-scale test of the cooperative vehicle infrastructure technology
or autonomous driving technology [79]; more than 60 automatic driving test sites
and demonstration areas have been put into use, and the mileage of open automatic
driving test road has exceeded 3000 km.
Through great progress has been made in transportation intelligence, compared
with the intelligent and green development requirements from Building China’s
Strength in Transportation, there are still some deficiencies. (1). The digitalization
foundation is still weak. The dynamic data perception is narrow in width and low
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 185

in depth with visualization as main approach and measurement as supplementary

approach, and there is a gap for realizing control and service; few systematic and
large-scale public data are available in the industry, and the actual data openness is
far from the social expectation. (2) The application cooperativity is not strong. The
development in diverse modes and fields is not consistent. Except for the national
ETC national networking system, there are few vertical national integrated cooper-
ative applications, and the horizontal cross-field and cross-sector applications have
not been fully integrated and effectively linked. (3) The integration of transporta-
tion services is not high. The intermodal passenger transport and multimodal freight
transport are still in the initial stage, and the whole-process digital service system,
including integrated ticketing system for passenger transport and one-bill system for
freight transport, has not been established; the supply capacity of whole-process all-
weather travel solutions, travel reservation service platforms and supporting facilities
cannot meet the urgent needs of the public. (4) The integration and innovation are
insufficient. New technologies such as cooperative vehicle infrastructure technology,
autonomous driving technology and transportation-energy integration technology
are still under testing, and lack application scenarios for actual implementation; the
technical solutions and construction modes for specific application scenarios are not
mature; some operating systems and mechanisms involving cross-sector corporation
are not sound enough; and no clearly-defined large-scale commercial operation plan
is available.

4.2.6.2 Future Development Trend

The digitalization, connection, intelligence, sharing and low-carbon development

of transportation is changing the operation mode, management mode and service
mode of transportation, and promoting the integrative development of intelligent
transportation, intelligent car, intelligent energy and smart city, helping build a trans-
portation system with higher safety, efficiency, intelligence, environment friendliness
and economic efficiency that effectively connects the production, distribution, circu-
lation and consumption, to ensure easier movement of people and smoother flow of
goods.
Data elements will drive the transformation of transportation production mode
With the rapid development of digital economy, data has become a key element that
will promote the mutual expression, gradual integration and co-evolution of physical
space and virtual space, and thereafter trigger qualitative leapfrog in productivity
and major change in production relations. Telecommuting, video conferencing and
online shopping allow people to travel less or select new travel mode through new
technologies. Transportation sharing services such as online ride hailing, bicycle
sharing and periodic leasing will improve the utilization efficiency of transportation
tools continuously. The combination of massive arterial route public transportation +
shared mobility will effectively alleviate the contradiction between the increasingly
limited transportation resources within the city cluster and the rapid growth of traffic
186 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

demand. Morgan Stanley estimates that by 2030, the mileage covered by car sharing
will account for 26% of the total travel mileage around the world [1, 83]. In addi-
tion, digitalization blurs the boundary between transportation supply and demand.
The shared mobility platform based on big data will, through connection of data
flow, passenger traffic flow and cargo traffic flow, realize the integrated passenger
and freight transportation service by means of transportation organization with the
characteristics of high timeliness, high frequency, accurate matching, multi-party
integration and seamless connection to dynamically respond to the transportation
demand. In 2035, online travel reservation will become normal, shared mobility will
be widely popularized, and technologies including biometric identification, friction-
less access and frictionless payment will be widely applied; the intelligent multimodal
freight transport technology will be popularized, the proportion of urban logistics
co-distribution will exceed 50%, and the whole process of logistics will be visual-
ized. By 2050, “door-to-door” one-stop intelligent passenger transport service and
one-order intelligent freight service will be realized.
Transportation infrastructure network, transportation service network, energy
network and information network will be integrated to build a new highway
infrastructure network
Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council
have intensively deployed and accelerated the promotion of new infrastructures
such as 5G network and data center. New highway infrastructure is an impor-
tant part of the national new infrastructure strategy, and also an important part
for the construction of national transportation strength. Both the Outline for the
Construction of National Strength in Transportation and the National Comprehen-
sive Three-dimensional Transportation Network Planning Outline clearly specify to
“promote the integrative development of transportation infrastructure network, trans-
portation service network, information network and energy network”, and to “be at
the global forefront in terms of the quality, intelligence and green levels of trans-
port infrastructure”, which requires highway transport sector to actively adapt to the
growing demand for high-quality, diversified and personalized passenger travel and
high-value, small-batch and time-effective cargo transportation, promote the overall
layout, planning and construction of highway infrastructure, information infrastruc-
ture and energy infrastructure by empowering the traditional highway infrastructure
via cutting-edge technologies, and realize the transformation of transportation from
separate development to cooperative and integrated development. In addition, contin-
uous innovation and breakthrough of new technologies such as big data, Internet,
artificial intelligence and blockchain have promoted the transformation of develop-
ment driving force from production factor to innovation. The level of digitalization,
connection and intelligence of the highway network, information network and energy
network is required to be continuously improved to form a new comprehensive infras-
tructure system, that is widely interconnected, smart, green, open and shared with
data as fusion agent. By 2035, the highway infrastructure will be digitalized in all
elements and all cycles; the high-power charging facilities for super-fast charging
of electric vehicles will fully cover the expressways in city clusters. By 2050, the
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 187

automatic detection, warning and intelligent maintenance of highway facilities and

equipment, and the all-element & all-weather real-time perception covering the whole
highway network and the whole-process active control of highway operation will be
realized; and convenient, efficient, interconnected and shared charging and battery
swapping network will be built.
Corporative vehicle infrastructure technology and autonomous driving tech-
nology will change the transportation management mode
With the development of corporative vehicle infrastructure technology and
autonomous driving technology, the service object of highway transportation has
changed from people to machines, the service subject has changed from single subject
to multiple subjects, and the service mode has changed from one-way informa-
tion provision to two-way/multi-way information interaction, which requires revolu-
tionary changes in highway transportation operation rules and management modes.
It is predicted that by 2030, the market share of intelligent connected vehicles of
partial driving automation (PA) level and conditional driving automation (CA) level
in China’s automobile sales market in that year will exceed 70%; the market share
of intelligent connected vehicles of high driving automation (HA) level will reach
20%, and such vehicles will be widely applied in expressway transportation and will
be applied in transportation on some urban roads; by 2035, the intelligent connected
vehicle of high driving automation (HA) level will be applied on a large scale [84,
85]. In the global automobile sales market, the intelligent connected vehicle will
embrace a sales proportion close to saturation after 2040, and will basically realize
full electrification, automation and connection in 2050 [86]. In terms of cooperative
vehicle infrastructure technology, Level S3 and Level S4 conditional cooperative
vehicle infrastructure technologies will be popularized on a large scale in 2035 and
in 2050 respectively [87]. Under the guidance of digital economy, the new generation
of road transportation control network and traffic brain with multi-subject coopera-
tion will realize the collaborative perception, decision-making and control of vehicle
to vehicle and vehicle to road, and will be applied on a large scale in expressway
network and urban road network in economically developed areas by 2035, and in
national road network in 2050.

4.2.6.3 Carbon Emission Reduction Potential Analysis

Intelligent transportation will promote transportation structure optimization

In the past, the reform of transport means from carriage and train to automobile and
aircraft determines the capacity and structure of the integrated transportation system;
while since the 1980s, the development of information technology has become the
largest driver of transportation reform. Electrification, digitalization, intelligence and
connection are changing the power system and control system of the vehicle, and
what’s more important, the transportation supply and demand. With the emergency
of new shared mobility services, the demand for private vehicles will gradually
188 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

decrease. Besides, under the dual effects of shared mobility mode and intelligent
control technology, the unload ratio and stop time of single vehicle are effectively
reduced, and the transportation efficiency (expressed in person kilometers or ton kilo-
meters) completed per vehicle kilometer will be significantly improved. In intercity
transportation, the market share of highway passenger transport is rapidly reduced,
and railways and intercity rail transit will become the main modes of transporta-
tion; the means for long-distance bulk cargo transportation gradually shifts from
highway to railway and waterway. The autonomous-driving freight vehicle forma-
tion will play an important role in the trunk transportation, effectively improving the
transportation speed and reducing traffic accidents. In intracity transportation, the
connection, complementarity, integrated operation and refined service of rail transit
and conventional ground public transportation will significantly improve the share of
green transportation; socialized logistics co-distribution will alleviate urban traffic
congestion, reduce energy consumption and mitigate pollution.
Intelligent transportation will improve road capacity
Autonomous driving vehicles can effectively reduce headway and improve driving
safety, thus greatly improving the traffic capacity of a single lane. However, consid-
ering the penetration rate of autonomous driving vehicles, the autonomous driving
vehicle and manual driving vehicle will co-exist for a long term, and at this time, both
the negative impact of autonomous driving vehicles on manual driving vehicles and
the impact of their co-existence in special areas such as entrances, exits and weaving
sections should be considered. Therefore before 2035, the role of autonomous driving
vehicle in the improvement of the overall road capacity is limited. On the other hand,
as the penetration rate of autonomous driving vehicles increases, the autonomous
driving vehicle with intelligent connection capability will work as a large mobile
intelligent terminal and will play an increasingly important role in intelligent trans-
portation systems. The new generation of road traffic control network and traffic
brain will, by applying data-driven traffic control and service technology, realizes
the connection of people, vehicle, road and environment to deeply explore the effi-
ciency of existing traffic resources, so as to realize the intelligence and accuracy of
overall traffic scheduling and management, and the reasonable matching of trans-
portation demand and supply in time and space, thus effectively improving the overall
traffic efficiency of the road network.
Intelligent transportation will improve energy efficiency
The electrification, connection and intelligence of automobiles and their extensive
interconnection and integrative development with highway infrastructure network,
energy network and information network will profoundly change the energy
consumption scale and structure of highway transportation. Continuous growth of
EV population will put forward higher requirements for the layout, scale, operation
and maintenance of charging and battery swapping facilities along the highway. Now,
a large number of connected and intelligent power facilities have been built along
the intelligent highway, which will also greatly increase the energy consumption
of traditional highways. However, the integrated application of new technologies
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 189

such as Internet, big data and artificial intelligence will realize the dynamic coop-
erative operation and control of the transportation network and the energy network,
and then help improve the energy efficiency. Besides, if autonomous driving vehi-
cles are traveling in formation, the wind drag will reduce and thereafter the fuel
consumption and exhaust emissions will be effectively reduced. In the long run, with
the widespread popularity of autonomous driving vehicles, intelligent transporta-
tion will, through vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure interaction as well
as intelligent sensing and cooperative operation and control, help optimize vehicle
driving behavior to make it travel at higher speed or a constant speed, thus reducing
energy consumption and exhaust emissions.

4.2.6.4 Conclusions and Recommendations

The digitalization, connection, intelligence, sharing and low-carbon development

of transportation has become the irresistible trend. The integrative development
of intelligent transportation, intelligent vehicle, intelligent energy and smart city
will promote cross-sector cooperative development and social and economic eco-
integration, optimize the transportation structure, improve the overall safety and
efficiency of the road network, and reduce energy consumption and environmental
pollution.
In order to promote the development of intelligent transportation, the following
actions are required: further consolidate the digital foundation and promote the digi-
talization, connection and intelligence of highway infrastructure and transportation
vehicles; strengthen the innovation of application scenarios that can be implemented
according to the phased characteristics and maturity of technology, make detailed
and practical technical scheme and operation mode design for specific application
scenarios such as shared mobility, vehicle infrastructure cooperation and the integra-
tion of transportation infrastructure network, transportation service network, energy
network and information network, establish a sound operation system for cross-
sector cooperation, and promote the large-scale and commercial application of intel-
ligent transportation technology; strengthen policy guidance, follow the “market
first, government supplement” principle, encourage the investment of social capital
in the construction and operation of intelligent transportation system, and build an
intelligent transportation industry ecosystem.

4.2.7 Path 7: Shared Mobility

The transportation is a social and economic system containing a variety of social and
economic factors, and those factors have gradually become the drivers for the low-
carbon transformation of the transportation industry. For example, the transformation
of urban morphology can minimize the driving of vehicle and help reduce carbon
emissions thereafter; people’s attention to shared values and sharing economy can
190 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

change travelers’ behavior and reduce carbon emissions; the adaptation of charging
system to the new mode of power grid will improve the efficiency of power trans-
mission. Among the driving factors of carbon emission reduction, the spreading of
sharing economy concept can help improve social and economic efficiency [88, 89],
promote urban transformation, and as it is not limited to a single industry, make
a certain contribution to the increase of the welfare of the whole society. Besides,
more and more supporting data prove that the sharing economy, through the change
of the organization of economic activities, enables greater support from social groups
than a single family and thus shows greater potential for carbon emission reduction
[88, 90].
Shared mobility, as a part of the sharing economy which grows fastest, has received
extensive attention in recent years [90]. Shared mobility is an emerging transportation
mode in which people are not required to get the ownership of vehicle, share vehicles
with others in the manner of sharing and carpooling, and pay according to their travel
requirements. The representative mode of shared mobility include online ride hailing
and car sharing. This new travel mode mainly achieves emission reduction through
substitution for private car, improvement of vehicle use efficiency, and improvement
of urban transportation system efficiency. As for its substitution for private cars, it
is estimated by Greenblatt&Shaheen that the application of each car for sharing will
remove 9–13 private cars from the road [90]; as for the improvement of vehicle
use efficiency, it is studied by Martinez&Viegas research that shared mobility can
increase the daily operation time of vehicle from about 50 min a day to 12 h [91];
as for the improvement of urban transportation system efficiency, the study of the
International Transport Forum (ITF) shows that carpooling can reduce the traffic
congestion by 48% and therefore reduce the CO2 emission by 50% [92]. This section,
considering that the online ride hailing service accounts for more than 90% of the
shared mobility market [93], takes the online ride hailing mode as an example to
discuss the carbon emission reduction potential of passenger vehicles (private cars)
for shared mobility under six scenarios based on the China Automotive Life Cycle
Assessment Model (CALCM).
(1) Status-quo of China’s new energy car online ride hailing service market
With the promotion and increasing market penetration rate of new energy vehicles in
China, their scale advantage and cost advantage are gradually showing out, and online
ride hailing service has become the main application field of new energy vehicles
with its overwhelming advantage in comprehensive operating cost. According to the
main purpose of vehicles, the NEV market is mainly divided into the following seven
segments: private car, e-taxis, taxis, car for sharing, logistics vehicle, bus and heavy-
duty truck. After analyzing the data provided by the National Big Data Alliance
of New Energy Vehicles [94], we found that in 2020, the average daily mileage of
e-taxis was 157.8 km, second only to that of taxis, as shown in Fig. 4.38.
Before the outbreak of COVID-19, i.e. in 2019, the average daily travel duration
of e-taxis in China was 6.99 h, with an increase of 1.11 h compared with the 5.88 h in
2018; the average daily mileage was 167.25 km, increasing greatly compared with the
141.67 km in 2018; In addition, the proportion of e-taxis with an average daily travel
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 191

Fig. 4.38 Average daily mileage of new energy vehicles for different purposes in 2020

duration above 8 h in the first-tier cities was much higher than that in other cities, and
that in cities of fourth tier and fifth tier was significantly lower than that in other cities.
However, in 2020, the average daily mileage and average daily travel duration of e-
taxis decreased slightly, which is mainly owing to the outbreak and rage of COVID-19
pandemic, when most industries in China were heavily impacted, people’ demand for
public travel dropped sharply in the short term, and the market shrunk temporarily;
the driver faced heavy physical and psychological pressure during driving; and to
ensure the daily disinfection and safety of the vehicle, the operating cost of the
platform increased sharply. However, in the long run, e-taxis is still the dominator
of the travel market. A large number of studies have shown that, compared with
the traditional vehicle fleet for shared mobility, electric vehicles are equivalent in
terms of service, travel time and waiting time, and perform better in operation and
maintenance costs.
(2) Carbon emission reduction potential of online ride hailing service
This subsection accounts for the carbon emission reduction rate of battery electric
vehicles and conventional fuel vehicles under different shared mobility scenarios
by using the LCA method, so as to analyze the carbon emission reduction effect of
shared mobility. For the accounting of life cycle carbon emission of vehicles, the data
provided by CATARC-ADC is used, including the material input, basic parameters,
carbon emission factors, etc. of the whole life cycle of the automobile.
Shared mobility can effectively reduce vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) through
combined travel, and can also provide a foundation for fleet cut-down, conges-
tion relief and reduction of potential energy consumption and emission [95–98].
Compared with conventional fuel vehicles, electric vehicles have greater advantages
in emission reduction. Seen from the different stages of the vehicle life cycle, the elec-
tric vehicles show a higher carbon emission in vehicle cycle due to the production of
batteries, but their carbon emission in fuel cycle is far lower than that of conventional
fuel vehicles. For this research, two backgrounds, namely reference background and
192 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

policy background are selected. In the reference background, it is assumed that the
proportion of BEVs in passenger vehicle population in China remains unchanged;
in the policy background, it is assumed that China will realize the full electrification
of vehicles in the future, and the market share of electric vehicles will reach 100%.
Under the two backgrounds, six scenarios covering 4-people shared mobility, 3-
people shared mobility and 2-people shared mobility are set up to discuss the carbon
emission reduction rate in vehicle cycle and fuel cycle respectively.
The carbon emission reduction effect of shared mobility is characterized by its
carbon emission reduction rate relative to traditional travel mode, where the carbon
emission reduction is the difference between the carbon emissions of traditional
travel mode and shared mobility mode, and the carbon emission reduction rate is the
ratio of carbon emissions from shared mobility mode to the carbon emissions from
traditional travel modes. The calculation formula is as follows:

E Mr = E M F − E M E
EMr
e=
EMF

where, E Mr is the carbon emission reduction of shared mobility mode compared with
traditional travel mode, kg; e is the carbon emission reduction rate of shared mobility
mode compared with traditional travel mode, %; E M F is the carbon emission from
traditional travel mode, kg; E M E is the carbon emission from shared mobility mode,
kg.
As shown in Fig. 4.39, under the six scenarios, the carbon emission reduction
effect of shared mobility is mainly reflected in the fuel cycle. Specifically, the average
carbon emission reduction rate in the fuel cycle is about 66%, and that in the vehicle
cycle is only about 13%. For online ride hailing service, shared mobility reduces the
travel frequency of private cars to a certain extent, and is the major substitution for
private cars. Now that fuel vehicles account for about 97% of total vehicle population
in China, and the fuel cycle carbon emission of fuel vehicles is the main contributor
of life cycle carbon emission of vehicles, sharing of per capita carbon emission at
the user end does the most to the carbon emission reduction of shared mobility.
Horizontal comparison of different shared mobility modes shows that about another
5% of the carbon emission reduction rate will be expected for each increase of 1
people participating in the shared mobility, and from this point of view, when more
people participate in the shared mobility, the per capita carbon emission in travel is
lower, and the carbon emission reduction rate is greater, which also indicate that the
substitution of public transport for private cars can achieve greater carbon emission
reduction effect. By comparing the results of reference background and the policy
background, it is found that the carbon emission reduction rate of EV scenario is
higher, and in the three scenarios under the policy background, the average carbon
emission reduction rate is 13% higher than that of reference background, as shown
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 193

in Table 4.11. In recent years, with the progress of electric vehicle technology, more
and more car sharing companies are replacing their original fleet with BEV fleet
to achieve net zero carbon emission [99]. For example, in Beijing, Shouqi Group,
as a response to the development of shared mobility, launched GOFun, an electric
vehicle for leasing, to provide convenient, green, fast and economical travel service
for users. Successful global EV sharing markets have also emerged, such as Autolib
in France, SHARENOW in Germany and Zipcar [98] in the United States (Table
4.12).

Fig. 4.39 Carbon emission reduction rate of shared mobility under six scenarios

Table 4.12 Parameter settings of shared mobility under different scenarios

Category of scenario Parameter 2025 (%) 2030(%) 2050(%) 2060(%)
category
Reference scenarios Sharing rate 5.00 14.29 51.43 70.00
Low-carbon scenario Sharing rate 8.00 18.50 60.50 80.00
Enhanced low-carbon Sharing rate 10.00 24.00 80.00 80.00
scenario
Reference scenarios Shared carbon emission 6.87 19.20 64.14 79.91
reduction rate
Low-carbon scenario Shared carbon emission 10.32 24.74 73.97 87.94
reduction rate
Enhanced low-carbon Shared carbon emission 12.88 32.44 88.03 88.17
scenario reduction rate
194 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

(3) Barriers to the development of shared mobility

Shared mobility is a part of sharing economy, which can effectively solve the prob-
lems in urban transportation, energy consumption, air pollution and health. Among
all shared mobility modes, online ride hailing is the most widely applied one, but
it also faces a series of new problems: (1) the laws and regulations on online ride
hailing are not complete, passengers’ information security and personal safety are
often threatened, and serious problems are involved in responsibility division in
case of an event; (2) governments have formulated strict regulatory rules to further
rationally allocate transportation resources and strengthen the safety of online ride
hailing service, which however rises the access threshold of online ride hailing, and
somehow hinders development of the online ride hailing market; (3) there is no
transparent pricing mechanism for online ride hailing, and there may be the case
that the online ride hailing platform infringes consumers’ right to know by using
the dynamic price adjustment mechanism; (4) the online ride hailing service, though
bringing some convenience to us, will cause certain negative environmental effects,
and the public transport means and non-motorized transport means are at the risk of
being replaced. Besides, charging of EVs for shared mobility is also a big problem.
Nowadays, there are a large number of gas stations available for traditional vehicles
but relatively few charging piles for electric vehicles, and the construction of a large
number of charging piles is poles part of the original intention of shared NEVs for
sharing existing resources; in addition, new energy vehicles are also facing people’s
anxiety on range. Once put into shared mobility, the daily kilometers traveled by
NEVs will be much higher than before, especially in Beijing, Shanghai and other
big cities where dilemma of power runout on the way may occur during travel across
districts.
With the improvement of living standards, people has higher and higher require-
ments on travel quality. The traditional public transport travel mode can no longer
meet the requirements some people for high-quality and high-precision travel. At this
period when the urban travel modes are diversified, EV shared mobility comes into
being and becomes a new development trend of travel, which not only has advan-
tages over other travel modes in alleviating urban traffic congestion, saving resource
utilization and reducing carbon emissions, and but also increases the welfare of
the whole society through the new economic paradigm of sharing economy after
combining big data and intelligent connected technology. However, there are some
urgent problems to be solved in the development of sharing economy, such as respon-
sibility distribution, pricing mechanism, adverse impact of infrastructure on public
transport travel, etc. Therefore, while accelerating the construction of infrastructure,
human resources and public environment required by the sharing economy, policy
makers should also strengthen the governance to business operation environment,
and formulate an effective social credit system to cultivate the sharing economy
into a driver of China’s economic growth, and broaden the development path of the
sharing economy.
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 195

4.2.8 Path 8: Resource Recycling

4.2.8.1 Automotive Resource Recycling

(1) Status-quo and development trend of the industry

In the past few years, the vehicle population and recovery in China have main-
tained a rapid rising trend. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Public Secu-
rity, China’s vehicle population increased from 217 million in 2017 to 302 million
in 2021. At the same time, the recovery of ELVs has also increased steadily. In
2021, 2.975 million of ELVs were recovered, accounting for about 1% of the vehicle
population, as shown in Fig. 4.40.
In order to reduce the excessive dependence of the automotive industry on natural
resources, reduce the negative impact of resource exploitation on the social environ-
ment, and respond to the “carbon peak and carbon neutrality” policy, the automotive
industry is required to transform into a “resource-saving and environment-friendly”
industry. The recovery, dismantling and resource recycling of ELVs based on the
principle of “reduction, reuse and recycling” is an indispensable key link to realize
the closed-loop cycling of automotive products. The automotive industry shall take
the automobile dismantling and recycling as the leading and starting point, and the
circular industrial chain as the technological support and management system to
adapt to the new development pattern in which the industrial cycle is dominated and
participants at home and abroad work hand in hand for mutual promotion [100].
(2) Development trend and forecast of automotive resource recycling
Countries all over the world have attached great importance to the recycling of
automotive resources. For example in the United States, components which account
for almost 75–80% of the vehicle weight are recycled, and at present, there are

Fig. 4.40 Growth trend of China’s vehicle population and recycling from 2012 to 2021
196 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

more than 12,000 ELV dismantling enterprises, 20,000 parts remanufacturing enter-
prises and 200 ELV shredding enterprises in the United States. Now, ELV recycling
industry in the United States create billions of dollars of benefits every year. As
early as September 2000, the EU issued the End of Life Vehicles Directive (Direc-
tive 2000/53/EC), which was fully implemented by Member States from January 1,
2007. The directive stipulates that automobile manufacturers, when putting a new
vehicle into the European market, must provide a certificate to prove that the mate-
rials accounting for at least 85% of the weight of new vehicle put into the market
can be recovered, and at least 95% of them can be reused. In Japan, there are about
85,000 ELV recycling enterprises, 23,000 Freon treatment enterprises, 5000 disman-
tling enterprises and 140 shredding enterprises, ensuring a recycling rate of ELVs
close to 100%.
China has also issued a series of policies successively to regulate the management
of automotive resource recycling. With the formal implementation of the Measures
for the Management of End-of-Life Vehicle Recycling and the Technical specifica-
tions for end-of-life vehicles collecting and dismantling enterprises in 2019, China’s
ELV recycling industry is facing major development opportunities and challenges.
On July 31, 2020, 7 ministries including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the
Detailed Rules for the Implementation of the Measures for the Recycling of End-of-
Life Vehicles, which clearly stipulates the code of conduct for recovery, dismantling
and recycling, and put forward that the “five assemblies” including engine, steering
gear, transmission, front/rear axle and frame can be recycled. In July, 2021, the
National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued the 14th Five-Year
Plan for Circular Economy Development, which clearly specifies to strengthen the
standardized management and environmental supervision of dismantling and recy-
cling enterprises for end-of-life motor vehicles, end-of-life ships, lead batteries and
others.
Major automakers in the automotive industry have also formulated quantitative
carbon emission reduction targets. For example, Volvo Group has proposed to reduce
the carbon footprint of each vehicle by 40% by 2025 and achieve climate neutrality by
2040; Volkswagen Group has proposed to reduce the carbon emission of each vehicle
by 30% by 2025 and finally realize the life cycle carbon neutrality of vehicles by
2050; Toyota has proposed to reduce life cycle CO2 emissions of vehicles to 1/3 of
the 2001 level by 2030, and achieve net zero life cycle carbon emissions by 2050. In
addition, these international automobile enterprises have realized carbon emission
reduction in the material product process through strengthening the development and
utilization of low-carbon materials, reducing the use of materials and increasing the
use of recycled materials during the development and design of a new model.
With the gradual standardization of policies, the scale of China’s ELV industry
is also expanding steadily. According to the prediction in 2.4 of this Book that
the vehicle population in China will continue to grow in the future, and consid-
ering that the proportion of recovered vehicles (2.975 million) in vehicle population
(302 million vehicles) in 2021 was about 1%, and this proportion in developed coun-
tries is about 5–7%, it is assumed that such proportion in China will reach 3% in
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 197

Table 4.13 Prediction of China’s vehicle population and recycling in the future
Time Vehicle New energy Recycling rate Recovery New energy
population vehicles (proportion in (10,000) vehicles
(100 million) (10,000) vehicle (10,000)
population) (%)
2025 3.61 2839 3 1083 85.2
(forecast)
2030 4.46 7395 5 2230 369.8
(forecast)
2035 5.02 14,611 7 3514 1022.8
(forecast)
2050 5.47 32,130 7 3829 2249.1
(forecast)
2060 5.38 38,003 7 3766 2660.2
(forecast)

2025, reach 5% in 2030, and remain table at about 7% after 2035. The specific data
of China’s vehicle population and recovery in the future are shown in Table 4.1.
In addition, the battery recycling is involved fors the new energy vehicle and the
technology used is different from that of vehicle. Therefore, the battery recycling is
to be calculated separately. In 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles
reached 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively, increasing by 160% compared
with last year, and contributing to a market share up to 13.4%. By the end of 2021,
the population of new energy vehicles in China had reached 7.84 million, accounting
for 2.6% of the total vehicle population. According to CATARC-ADC’s prediction,
the automobile electrification will accelerate in the future, and the market share of
EVs will increase rapidly, as shown in Table 4.13.
(3) Carbon emission reduction potential analysis of automotive resource recycling

China’s vehicle population has ranked first in the world, and the recycling of auto-
motive resources has very important economic and social benefits for the control
of carbon emissions in the whole life cycle of vehicle and the realization of indus-
trial closed-loop circulation. According to the industry research, compared with
primary materials, the successively use of recycled steel, recycled plastic and recy-
cled aluminum can achieve a carbon emission reduction rate of about 80%, 80%
and 90% respectively. The recovery of main automotive materials and their carbon
emission reduction data are shown in Table 4.14 [101].
For fuel vehicles: carbon emission reduction = Carbon Depreciation
emission reduction effect
ratio
Recovery.
According to the above formula, carbon emission reduction from material
recovery of a single fuel vehicle is 4.9 tCO2 . Then for new energy vehicles, the
contribution of battery recycling to carbon emission reduction needs to be consid-
ered. According to GEM’s calculation for the carbon footprint of battery recycling
and material remanufacturing, a carbon emission reduction of 19 kgCO2 is expected
for every 1kWh of battery recycled, and if the capacity of each battery pack is taken
198 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

Table 4.14 Carbon emission reduction from material recycling

Carbon emission reduction Material recovery of single Depreciation ratio
effect (tCO2 /ton of material) fuel vehicle (kg)
Steel 1.9 2534.48 1.08
Aluminum 14.7 28.95 1.18
Plastic 3.4 21.73 1.19

as 50kWh, the recycling of each battery pack can help reduce the carbon emission
by 950 kgCO2. Therefore, the carbon emission reduction from recycling of single
new energy vehicle is 5.8 tCO2 .
(4) Automotive resource recycling technology
The structural parts of ELVs are mainly made of steel. At present, the dismantling
enterprises tend to flatten, cut and shred the vehicle body and structural parts to obtain
products that meet certain size specifications and density requirements, and sell them
to the steel smelter for recycling. Compared with iron ore, waste steel smelting
can reduce the use of coal, water and concentrate powder, and has a remarkable
carbon emission reduction effect [102]. In the metal materials shredded from the
ELV, the nonferrous metals account for about 3–4.7%, which are mainly aluminum
and copper, and a small amount of them are magnesium alloy, zinc, lead and bearing
alloy [103]. In order to ensure the quality of recycled aluminum products, the waste
aluminum shall be subject to shredding, sorting, melt purification and other processes.
For example, color sorting technology and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy
(LIBS) technology can be used to classify waste aluminums [104]. In a vehicle, pure
copper is mainly used for brake pipe, cooling pipe, etc., and copper alloy is mainly
used for radiator, brake valve seat, carburetor vent valve body, etc., and those parts
will be recovered, sorted, melt and electrorefined into copper products that meet the
corresponding specifications after the vehicle comes to the end of its life. In an ELV,
plastics account for 8–12% [105]. Overall speaking, the recycling methods of auto
plastics can be divided into direct utilization, physical reuse, chemical reuse and
energy recovery.
The recycling of parts is the first step of the ELV recycling, and is the part with
highest economical value in the ELV recycling value system. Parts recycling can
generally be divided into direct reuse, remanufacturing and upgraded remanufac-
turing. The direct reuse of parts is mainly for accident vehicles or less-frequently
used vehicles, on which the parts are not used for a long time or many times and
are still within the normal service life, and thus can be reused only through simple
cleaning and testing; Remanufacturing refers to the secondary reuse of parts after
re-processing and repair. Improvement of the reliability of remanufactured parts is
an important means to ensure the quality stability of remanufactured products, and is
also the only way for remanufactured products to be approved successfully; Upgraded
remanufacturing refers to the transformation and upgrade of parts based on the orig-
inal manufacturing to meet the new standards and requirements. The study shows
that, the value created by direct reuse (remanufacturing) of engines from every 1000
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 199

recovered minivans is equivalent to the value created by 44 (or 21) new engines [106].
The remanufactured engine, compared with a new engine, brings a cost reduction
of 50%, an energy consumption reduction of 60%, and a raw material consumption
reduction of 70% [107].
(5) Opportunities and challenges facing automotive resource recycling
Under the sustainable development of China’s automotive industry, the automotive
resource recycling industry is facing great opportunities, mainly including:
1. China’s automobile scrapping rate will continue to grow, and may be above 3%
in the next five years, which is mainly due to the accelerated elimination and
upgrading of old cars, the increase of vehicle recovery driven by the increase of
vehicle population, and the shortened service life of vehicle [108].
2. The recovery of new energy vehicles and batteries will increase significantly. The
battery embraces a large recycling space, which is conducive to the development
and growth of enterprises.
3. The storage and disposal of hazardous wastes will be gradually standardized, and
illegal recycling and disposal will be further controlled or eliminated.
4. The emergence of carbon trading will further drive the growth of the industry.
China has launched carbon emission trading pilot projects in Beijing, Tianjin,
Shanghai, Chongqing, Guangdong, Hubei and Shenzhen. In 2021, the opening
price of carbon quota was 48 yuan/ton, but in EU, the carbon trading price
has exceeded 50 Euros/ton. A vehicle contains about 80% of recycled metal
resources, which make a significant contribution to the energy conservation and
carbon emission reduction of the steel industry, and will also become a predictable
income source in the disposal of ELVs in the future.
Although the automobile recycling industry embraces a good development
prospect and features outstanding economic and social benefits, it still faces some
challenges, as described below:
1. The overall recovery by qualified enterprises is very low, with the ELVs recovered
by qualified enterprises only accounting for about 40% of the ELV market. It
is urgent to establish formal disposal channels for decommissioned vehicles
and end-of-life vehicles. The ELVs shall be more treated through the formal
disposal channels and the recovery rate shall be improved, which will in turn
promote the improvement of enterprise benefits and thereafter the recycling level
of automotive resources.
2. The equipment automation level and management level are low. Most of ELVs
are manually or semi-automatically dismantled, and thus the disposal efficiency
is low and the added value is low. The recovery and dismantling enterprises have
low level of lean management, refined dismantling and intelligent dismantling
skill.
3. Enterprises in the industry are unevenly development and generally small in scale.
Classified recycling and dismantling, reasonable distribution of regional central-
ized shredding centers and industry acquisition & integration are the development
trends of the industry.
200 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

From this point of view, the automobile dismantling and recycling industry, in the
future, is bound to develop towards refined and intelligent dismantling in the future,
and realize refined sorting and high-value utilization of shredded and dismantled
materials, so as to improve the added value of products. In addition, the government
shall strengthen the supervision to illegal channels to realize regional centralized
standard dismantling and shredding.
(6) Conclusions and recommendations
China’s vehicle population is far from peaking, and the automotive industry will
maintain a growth trend in a long term. With the implementation of carbon trading and
other policies, the automobile recycling industry is now growing rapidly. The automo-
tive industry is highly energy consuming and carbon emitted, and with the introduc-
tion of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, automobile recycling becomes particularly
important. In 2021, 2.975 million of vehicles were recovered and recycled, and this
figure is estimated to reach 37.66 million by 2060.
At present, the automobile recycling industry is facing a great challenge of
upgrading. Enterprises shall continue to improve their own technology and value
competitiveness, and meanwhile, the government shall strengthen the supervision to
illegal recycling and dismantling, jointly promoting the rapid and sound develop-
ment of the automobile recycling industry, realizing the simultaneous development
of all links in the automotive industry chain, assisting China to realize the dream
of a powerful automobile country, and promoting the high-quality and sustainable
development of China’s automotive industry.

4.2.8.2 Transformation to Recycled Resources

Globally, it is projected that per-capita mobility will double between 2019 and
2070 as a result of rising incomes and population growth, while car owner-
ship increases by 60% [109]. To reach the targets on climate change set by the
Paris Agreement, a timely decarbonisation of road transport is essential. Fast scaling
of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and a corresponding phasing out and replace-
ment of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEs) is crucial. Scenarios by IEA and
Bloomberg New Energy Finance, among others, show that in the long term, BEVs
could account for > 85% of the global passenger vehicle fleet and > 60% of the global
heavy-duty commercial vehicle fleet could be operated in battery electric mode [110,
111]. In particular, due to their high systemic energy efficiency and relative technical
simplicity, experts expect BEVs to maintain their cost advantage over Fuel Cell Elec-
tric Vehicles (FCEVs), plug-in vehicles (PHEVs) and e-fuels in the long term [112]
(Exhibit 4.1).
Studies—such as this book—show that BEVs already have around ~45% of
the lifecycle emissions of an equivalent gasoline combustion engine on average
today [113]. The transition to clean electricity could improve this figure to around
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 201

Exhibit 4.1 Comparison of GHG emissions from vehicle production without end-of-life emis-
sions—BEV versus ICE [118]

28% by 2030.,2 [114] A widespread shift from ICEs to electric powertrains powered
by increasingly decarbonised, renewable energy will eliminate tailpipe CO2 emis-
sions in the medium term. The majority of the environmental footprint (greenhouse
gases (GHG), particulate matter, eutrophication etc.) will consequently shift from
the use phase to the materials in the build phase [114]. Batteries represent about
30% of the value of a BEV—and also 30% to 60% of the greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions of a BEV [115, 116]. The GHG “backpack” of a BEV due to produc-
tion is thus currently still 66%3 to approx. 79%,4 ,5 higher than for ICEs due to the
comparatively energy-intensive battery production. While battery production shows
great potential to be reduced through greater use of renewable energies—as already
practiced by many leading BEV producers, to reach full carbon abatement poten-
tial, the automotive sector must address the emissions embedded in materials and
production. As the build phase emissions break down in (Exhibit 4.2) highlights,
steel, aluminium and plastics are additional GHG intensive materials. But automo-
tive circularity is not only required because of the high GHG emissions embedded
in a vehicle’s material footprint (occurring in the build phase) but also because
of declining resource availabilities and other devastating impacts of unsustainable
resource extraction [117].
The UN International Resource Panel (IRP) has shown that over 50% of global
GHG emissions are caused by the extraction and processing of natural resources
[118]. For metals, minerals and plastics (i.e. ‘materials’) this impact amounts to
almost a quarter of global emissions [119]. While reducing emissions in industrial

2 a According to Ricardo Energy & Environment, in 2020 a gasoline combustion engine emits an
average of 269 g of CO2 per vehicle kilometre in the EU, while a BEV emits only 120 g of CO2
per vehicle kilometre (45%). By 2030, this figure drops to only 239 g/km for internal combustion
vehicles, but to 67 g/km (28%) for BEVs.
3 b 6,1 tons CO per ICE versus 13,9 tons per BEV (66%) according to Ricardo Energy &
2
Environment (2020).
4 c 6,4 tons CO per ICE versus 11,2 tons per BEV (75%) according to International Transport
2
Forum (2020).
5 d 6,7–6,9 tons CO per ICE versus 12,4 tons per BEV (79%) according to Agora Verkehrswende
2
(2019).
202 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

Exhibit 4.2 Virgin automotive material projection and required absolute resource decoupling to
meet IPCC LED scenario. SYSTEMIQ analysis based on IEA (2022) and ICCT (2021) [145]

processes through use of renewable energy is indispensable, it is unlikely to be suffi-

cient for reaching net zero by 2050, as growing demand for resources (projected to
double by 2060), combined with unavoidable emissions from hard-to-abate sectors,
will accelerate emission levels [120]. Strong growth in gross domestic product and
population are estimated to drive global domestic resource extraction to more than
190 billion tonnes in 2060, up from 88 billion tonnes in 2015 [121]. Besides a strong
correlation with GHG emissions, resource extraction leads to other negative envi-
ronmental impacts pushing our planet’s boundaries: land system change and corre-
sponding biodiversity loss; stress on the global hydrological cycle; and chemical
pollution, and disturbances in nitrogen and phosphorous flows.
A Circular Economy aims at an optimal and sustainable use of resources to
decouple negative environmental impacts from economic value creation. Circular
Economy measures increase resource productivity and have the potential to signifi-
cantly reduce the use of primary raw materials. Applying them requires a systemic,
comprehensive approach that takes the entire life cycle of a vehicle into account—
and in the best case even multiple life cycles. Policy-makers around the world begin
to include life cycle thinking in assessments and legislations [122]. For example, the
EU and China are reviewing how life cycle assessment accounting could be consid-
ered in the evaluation of vehicle GHG emissions [123, 124]. Evidence increases that
a systemic CE approach to achieve absolute resource decoupling is required to meet
politically set climate targets [124]. Therefore, the carbon emissions embedded in
materials must be tackled—there is not one silver bullet solution to solve the problem,
but a variety of circular levers being available to decision-makers.
The automotive industry starts from an initial low degree of circularity. Singular
optimisations such as selective remanufacturing and typically low value recycling
are applied. However, more sophisticated circular solutions and material efficiency
strategies start to gain traction [125]. To reach the objective of carbon neutrality, the
industry must go further, and take measures which include a fundamental change
in the way in which resources are used, and a holistic and systemic approach that
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 203

addresses the entire value chain and its underlying business models. This can be
achieved through optimising the impact of virgin materials per passenger-kilometre.
This metric is optimised by increasing the proportion of recycled materials and their
end-of-life value, while improving their utilisation, occupancy and operational life
in terms of passenger-kilometres. While all circular levers available to the automo-
tive industry6 are required to be implemented and systemically applied to achieve
dematerialisation,7 this chapter focusses on closing the materials loop through
recycling along the entire value chain to reduce primary resource extraction and the
corresponding impacts.
Today’s economic system and the automotive industry relies on an influx of new
resources. The goal of closing of material cycles is to eliminate or greatly reduce
this influx which correlates with negative environmental externalities and economic
losses. Of the 100 billion tonnes of resources being used globally per year, only about
9% are reintroduced into the economy with the rest becoming waste or consumed
in the process [126]. This comes as global material use has nearly quadrupled in
50 years and, in only 6 years between the Paris Agreement and the Glasgow Climate
Pact, the global economy consumed 500 billion tonnes of virgin materials [127].
This rate of extraction coupled with the externalities described above continues to
threaten the planet’s future. In this context, the used raw materials should be circu-
lated for as long as possible and reused for the manufacture of new vehicles (closed
loop). This is achieved by recovering, reprocessing/recycling and using secondary
materials while reducing process material and quality losses. Due to stringent auto-
motive material specifications and requirements, the aim in the recycling processes
is to achieve a high-quality recycling process in order to avoid downcycling as far as
possible. To achieve ambitious targets for employing secondary materials (i.e. recy-
cled content) a high quality secondary materials supply must be guaranteed, which is
currently limited by insufficient recycling capacity, technology and processes (esp.
dismantling) as well as increasing complexity of materials and composites (e.g.
technical plastics). To secure sufficient secondary materials, the automotive industry
can contribute to a closed loop through recycling of production scrap, recycling of
end-of-life vehicles, design the vehicles for dismantling and recycling,8 as well as
increasing demand for recycled content to spur the market.
The feasibility of closed material loops depends on whether sufficient high
quality secondary materials can be recovered from end-of-life vehicles. Despite

6 a Closing the materials loop through high quality recycling, optimising vehicle design in accor-
dance with circular principles to increase performance, operational life and end-of-life residual
value (through reuse/remanufacturing of components); and enabling circular business models that
decouple resource consumption from revenue generation and put vehicles into more productive use
(esp. ride- / car-pooling, see 4.1.7 Path 7).
7 b Dematerialisation refers to a reduction in the materials-intensity of economic activities,

specifically a decrease in material requirements per unit output.

8 c Design-for-dismantling and design-for-recycling refers to enabling a high-quality recycling of

end-of-life vehicles through recycling-oriented vehicle design which and minimising downcycling
through contamination with other materials.
204 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

vehicles being the most recycled product, [128] with currently insufficient recovery
processes and technologies, a large number of automotive materials and associated
economic values are lost in the process. The material recovery process is characterised
by low value retention with only 8% of recycled steel conforming to quality standards
that would make it reusable, aluminium being contaminated with other metals, and
overall automotive plastics recycling rates being at 9% at a large majority being open
loop recycled [129, 130]. As an uptake of reverse flows of traction batteries is only
expected in the mid-2020, barely any battery recycling takes currently place, but recy-
cling companies such as Duesenfeld or Redwood Materials lining up for tapping into
this emerging business opportunities with proclaimed recovery potentials of >90% of
the battery materials. In addition to the material losses, important resources are lost
as a result of vehicles being exported to regions with insufficient waste management
infrastructure and, as a consequence, the components and materials are no longer
available to a high-quality value cycle [131].
Automotive OEMs increasingly focus on improving end-of-life recovery and
reprocessing and commit to raising the share of recycled content in vehicles. To
overcome the current gap in low value material recovery and increasing ambitions
to close the automotive material loop, end-of-life requirements and processes need
major optimisations. As these differ per material type, a brief description for 3 key
materials follows:
For traction batteries, high quality recycling is crucial, because of problems
with the availability of core materials and their associated environmental and
social impacts. With rising resource prices high quality recovery becomes even
more important. Currently, the recovery of materials such as lithium or graphite is
economically not viable at present. Slow return rates as the uptake of BEVs is still in
initial stages and the safe handling of toxic components increases the complexity of
the entire battery recycling process [132]. While nearly 100% of the entire battery
(and differing proportions of specific materials in it, e.g. above 85% of lithium and
above 98% of cobalt) [133] can be recovered for closed loop purposes, secondary
battery materials from returned batteries will continue to be insufficient to meet the
demand for battery materials for the foreseeable future. As the large-scale electrifica-
tion of road transport is expected [134], the growth curve of (virgin) battery material
demand is set on a steep trajectory. Once a long-term steady state where returned
batteries approach volumes of newly produced is reached the resource imbalance can
be compensated through efficient recycling processes. Therefore, battery recycling
infrastructure needs to be built today, with emerging companies tapping into this
business opportunity. Collaborative efforts (e.g. cell producers and recyclers) and
a systematic design for circularity, at both product and process level, are required.
This will include a modular and circular design of the entire battery pack, as well
as its removable integration into the car. At the same time, evolving battery tech-
nologies need to be reflected in the design and setup of recycling infrastructure.
Additionally, in order to organise the circular battery value chain transparently and
efficiently, digital tools are needed that are shared by all economic participants.
Digital twins and battery passports need to be implemented to optimise the lifecycle
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 205

value of batteries and embedded materials and already gain momentum globally as
an optimisation and policy tool alike.
For metals, steel and aluminium are the most important materials in terms of
volumes and CO2 emissions apart from batteries. Metals can be recycled indef-
initely without loss and metal (recycling) value chains are already circular to
a certain degree. [126] Metal products are reprocessed through mechanical treat-
ment and subsequently reintroduced to the production cycle. In the case of steel, the
transport sector accounts for 16% of end-use steel, [126] with about 90% of end-of-
life steel and iron being collected and recovered from vehicles [132]. Steel must be
free of contamination and of sufficiently high grade to meet the requirements for car
manufacturing. Cars are built with highly specialised and alloyed varieties of steel.
Shredding these materials alongside other metals leads to contamination and mixture
with other compounds, such as copper. This contamination leads to quality losses and
ultimately the steel being downcycled and used for example in the construction sector.
[126] If this downgrading of steel is prevented by means of appropriate disassembly
processes and cleaner scrap flows, and in particular in a manner that avoids copper
contamination, it is projected that 85% of the demand for steel, even high-grade steel,
can be met through recycling [135]. The same applies to non-ferrous metals such
as aluminium. Over 90% of aluminium is already recovered, but the end-product is
lower-grade aluminium [136]. In the dismantling process, aluminium scrap is mixed
with different levels of alloys and with other unwanted metals. To ensure maximum
value retention and reuse of aluminium for automotive manufacturing, the mixing of
different alloys must be eliminated from the recovery cycle.
Consequently, the availability of secondary metals will depend on the quality of the
end-of-life processes. Closing the materials loop entails to keep copper contamination
of end-of-life vehicles in the recycling process as low as possible. This increases
the requirements for their end-of-life treatment. Improvements in vehicle design that
facilitate disassembly and sorting processes are crucial for better recycling capacities
[137].
For automotive plastics, 9% of the total plastics production ends up in cars and
lorries. This proportion which is expected to rise as lightweighting strategies become
more important to—at least partly—offset average vehicle size and weight increases
[136]. By 2050, it is estimated that the average weight of plastic per vehicle will
increase by approximately one third relative to today, resulting in a 25% increase
in overall demand [138]. Plastic used in vehicles is highly dispersed, integrated in
complex composites, and over 39 different polymer types are used [139]. Mechanical
recycling of automotive plastic is extremely challenging as a result of the difficulties
in segregating individual polymer streams from the shredder light the complex and
highly specialized properties of the engineering plastics and plastic composites that
are used by the automotive sector. The dismantling of plastic components from end-
of-life vehicles remains marginal as, although it allows for a clean uncontaminated
waste stream, the economics are unfavorable and automation is virtually impossible
given the diversity and complex composite structure of vehicle components [124].
206 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

As a result, the predominant fate of plastic from end-of-life vehicles is in auto-

motive shredder residue. The lack of advanced post shredder technology capacity
and the focus to date on the recyclability of metals has meant that plastic is typi-
cally disposed of in landfill or, increasingly, via incineration with energy recovery.
Advanced (chemical) recycling processes suitable for high-performance plastics are
not yet economically viable with advanced recycling technologies (especially pyrol-
ysis and gasification) being more and more explored and scaled by plastic producers.9
Hence, to date, much of the embedded material value of the plastics is lost. For recy-
cled technical plastics to be made available from the automotive industry, complex
thermoplastics used in cars require better collection, disassembly where possible
and sorting of shredder residue and scale-up of stable end use markets to incentivize
investments for material recovery (for example through recycled content targets).
Due to the increasing amount of plastic in vehicles and the fossil fuel content of
plastics, the current trajectory suggests that the environmental burdens associated
with managing plastic waste from end-of-life vehicles could worsen, resulting in
greater levels of landfilling and incineration and, in turn, higher GHG emissions. At
a system-wide level, mechanical recycling can save an estimated 1.1 to 3.6 tonnes
of CO2 e per tonne of polymer recycled, thus effectively contributing to decreasing
climate risks [140].
Solely relying on recycling and increasing shares of recycled contents in vehi-
cles and batteries will however not suffice to solve the environmental problems
associated with increasing resource extraction. Recycling is an indispensable part
of the circular economy. It is required to decrease the negative impacts of growing
virgin material extraction and processing and the material loop should be closed as
soon as possible. But to stay in line with climate target ambitions, the IPCC projects
in the LED scenario that absolute virgin material consumption must be decreased
by close to 20% by 2050 compared to 2020 levels to achieve 1.5 °C [141]. The
Circularity Gap report showcases that the automotive industry can reduce absolute
virgin material consumption through raising recycling and recycled content in vehi-
cles—but vehicle utilization, durability and design improvements as well as overall
lower travel demand are required to achieve a resource decoupling that brings us on
a 1.5 °C pathway [142]. In contrast to these objectives, data suggests that cars are
getting heavier and larger: the average mass in running order of newly registered
vehicles is increasing by 0.6% per annum (p. a.) [143]. Coupled with continued car
sales growth—the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that the
global vehicle fleet will peak in 2038 with 2.21 billion vehicles on the roads in 2050
[144]—even very ambitious recycling rates and recycled content targets (set at 70%,

9 a While mechanical recycling is dependent on a range of factors, such as quality feedstocks to

achieve high quality recyclates suitable for re-employment for automotive parts, chemical recycling
technologies have the potential to consistently produce recyclate that is equivalent to virgin poly-
mers. Given that chemical recycling technologies are still relatively nascent, with only a limited
number of commercial-scale plants operating (plants that have scaled for an economic return rather
than a proof of concept), and given the uncertainties regarding policy and full value chain economics
at scale, there is a big factor of uncertainty attached to chemical recycling.
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 207

from 30% today) in newly produced vehicles will not achieve absolute resource
decoupling which is required to meet climate targets (see the IPCC LED pathway in
Exhibit 4.2).
To close this gap and decrease the risk of not following up on increasingly ambi-
tious recycled content targets by OEMs, all circularity levers—from lifetime
extension to increased vehicle utilization through shared mobility—should be
supported and followed by. Especially a more efficient use of the current vehicle
stock, and the materials it is made from, is required to reduce future (virgin) material
demand. According to the International Resource Panel, sharing models, including
both car-sharing and ride-sharing, have the potential to reduce the total vehicle stock
by 13–57% for G7 countries by 2050 while providing the same mobility utility to
consumers [146]. A more intensive use of vehicles could decouple car ownership
from demand for mobility through, for example, both car-sharing where vehicles are
owned collectively but used by individuals through rental, and ride-sharing where
vehicles are owned by individuals, but occupancy rates are increased through sharing
services. In particular, occupancy rates need to increase in shared mobility systems—
a core reason why current ride-hailing services rather increase the vehicle stock and
the according vehicle production [147]. The strong association of revenue with new
sales and virgin material use needs to be decoupled. Dematerialised, circular busi-
ness models increasingly showcase the potential to offset revenue losses from less
volume-based sales through (digital) services added to the product and enabled by
producer ownership [148].

4.2.9 Path 9: Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage

Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology allows for near zero
carbon emissions in power industry, steel industry and other industries to effectively
reduce the life cycle GHG emissions of vehicles related to power and steel. CCUS
technology can offset some of the CO2 of which emission is difficult to be reduced in
the automotive industry, and ultimately achieve the carbon neutrality goal of the auto-
motive industry. This section mainly describes the development status and prospects
of CCUS and related negative emission technologies, analyzes the potential of CCUS
technology to reduce carbon emissions in power, steel and other industries, and fully
expresses the importance of CCUS technology for carbon neutrality in the automotive
industry.

4.2.9.1 Significance of CCUS for Carbon Neutrality in the Automotive

Industry

In 2021, the global new energy vehicle industry got good momentum of development,
huge potential and unprecedented opportunities, making great contributions to the
208 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

replacement of fossil fuels and effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions in

the transportation industry. However, some carbon emissions in the process of raw
material acquisition, vehicle production, and recycling of the automotive industry are
difficult to be eliminated through electrification and hydrogenation. Use of Carbon
Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS for short) technology can reduce or offset
this part of carbon emissions and further reduce carbon emissions in the automotive
industry to achieve the carbon neutrality goal. Combination of CCUS with bioenergy,
direct air capture and storage (referred to as DACCS) and other technologies can
even achieve negative CO2 emissions, generate a large number of carbon sinks, and
ultimately achieve the carbon neutrality goal of the automotive industry.
CCUS technology refers to a process in which separation of CO2 from industrial
processes, energy use or the atmosphere or direct utilization or storage of CO2 is
performed to achieve permanent CO2 emission reduction, as shown in Fig. 4.41.
According to the survey results of the Environmental Planning Institute of the
Ministry of Ecology and Environment in 2021, there are currently about 40 CCUS
demonstration projects in operation or under construction in China, with a capture
capacity of 3 million t CO2 /year and a geological utilization and storage capacity of
1.821 million t CO2 /year. The geological storage potential of CO2 in China is about
1.21–4.13 trillion tons [149]. In terms of the application of CCUS technology in the
power system and industrial sector and its negative emission potential, the research
shows that by 2050, China’s emission reductions through CCUS technology will be
about 6–1.45 billion tons of CO2 /year, and by 2060, emission reductions through
CCUS technology will be 10–1.82 billion tons of CO2 /year. On a global scale, as
stated in the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR15) published by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), by 2030, the total emission
reductions by CCUS in the world will be 100–400 million t CO2 /year, and by 2030,
they will be 3–6.8 billion t CO2 /year [150].

Fig. 4.41 CCUS links (Source Administrative Centre for China’s Agenda 21 (2021))
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 209

China attaches great importance to the development of CCUS, and has specially
mentioned the promotion of the research and development and pilot demonstra-
tion of CCUS in a number of important policy plans such as the Opinions on the
Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New Development
Concept to Do a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality and Action Plan
for Carbon Dioxide Peaking Before 2030. The Ministry of Science and Technology of
the People’s Republic of China released and updated the Technology Roadmap Study
on Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage in China in 2011 and 2018, respectively
[151]. The overall vision is to build a low-cost, low-energy, safe and reliable CCUS
technology system and industrial clusters to provide technical options for low-carbon
utilization of fossil energy, technical support for addressing climate change, and tech-
nical support for sustainable economic and social development. At the current stage,
the cost of CCUS process is mainly incurred in the CO2 capture link. The capture
cost is 100–480 yuan per ton of CO2 , and it is expected to be reduced to 20–130
yuan in 2060, effectively supporting the realization of China’s carbon neutrality goal
[149].
Power and steel industries-related carbon emissions make up a significant propor-
tion of life cycle carbon emissions of vehicles. This section will focus on the emission
reduction potential and development trend of CCUS applications in the power and
steel industries in the future, as well as the application prospects of CCUS-related
technologies.

4.2.9.2 Low-Carbon Power and Low-Carbon Steel Industries Based

on CCUS

In the power industry, the International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed out in the report
The Role of CCUS in Low-carbon Power Generation Systems released in 2020 that
thermal power plants equipped with CCUS will become an important component
of a highly flexible power system in the future [5]. As predicted [6], the emission
reductions of the China’s power system based on CCUS is 430 million to 1.64 billion
tons under the background of carbon neutrality. As stated in the China Energy and
Power Development Outlook 2019, China’s power demand is expected to increase
to 12 trillion to 15 trillion kWh per year by 2050. Even if the proportion of thermal
power is greatly reduced to about 10%, net zero emissions in the power system can
only be realized by reducing emissions of hundreds of millions of tons of CO2 based
on CCUS [7].
In the steel industry, production reduction, energy-saving technologies, steel scrap
recycling, and new substitution energy can all reduce the carbon footprint of steel
production. However, these emission reduction measures cannot completely elimi-
nate the carbon emissions of the steel industry, so it is necessary to deploy CCUS to
achieve CO2 emission reduction goals of the steel industry in the carbon neutrality
context. In the research on the path of China’s steel industry, many researchers
believe that China’s steel industry will begin to widely apply CCUS around 2030,
and increase the penetration ratio of CCUS to 15–35% in 2050 [8, 9].
210 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

Table 4.15 CCUS CO2 emission reduction potential of power and steel industries (100 million
tons/year) from 2025 to 2060
Year 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 2060
Power—Coal power 0.06 0.2 0.5–1 2–5 2–5 2–5
Power—Gas power 0.01 0.05 0.2–1 0.2–1 0.2–1 0.2–1
Steel 0.01 0.02–0.05 0.1–0.2 0.2–0.3 0.5–0.7 0.9–1.1

More than 10 forecasts on China’s CCUS emission reduction demand from 2025
to 2060 are stated in the China Carbon Dioxide Capture, Utilization and Storage
(CCUS) Annual Report (2021). The forecast results of CCUS emission reductions in
China’s power and steel industries are as shown in Table 4.15.
With the promotion of CCUS, carbon emissions in the power and steel indus-
tries will be significantly reduced, effectively reducing life cycle carbon emissions
of vehicles. According to the application potential of CCUS in the power and steel
industries, the expected contribution of CCUS application to the reduction of emis-
sion factors per kilowatt-hour and per ton of steel is as shown in Table 4.16. Under
the background of 2060 carbon neutrality goal, the application of CCUS in the power
industry is expected to reduce life cycle carbon emissions of battery electric vehicles
by approximately 0.54 tons, as shown in Table 4.16.

4.2.9.3 CCUS Contribution to Carbon Neutrality in the Automotive

Industry

CCUS can recover carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and slow climate warming.
The methods to achieve negative emissions include afforestation/reforestation,
enhanced weathering (mineral carbonization), etc., but currently, the most concerned
technology is the direct air capture and storage (referred to as DACCS) and bioenergy
with carbon capture and storage (referred to as BECCS). DAC refers to a technology
through which low-concentration CO2 in the atmosphere can be directly captured, as
shown in Fig. 4.42; BECCS refers to a technology through which CO2 in the atmo-
sphere is absorbed during the plant growth, and the absorbed CO2 is permanently
stored by using CCUS.
It is estimated that by 2060, it will be difficult to reduce the emissions of hundreds
of millions of tons of CO2 and some non-CO2 greenhouse gases from China’s power,
steel, and transportation industries every year. Through negative emission technolo-
gies, CO2 can be directly recovered from the atmosphere to offset this part of carbon
emissions, and ultimately achieve the carbon neutrality goal. Both DACCS and
BECCS have the advantages of flexible installation and adsorbable and distributed
CO2 emission sources. According to the forecast data in the China Carbon Dioxide
Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) Annual Report, the emission reductions in
China through BECCS are expected to reach 200–500 million t CO2 /year in 2050,
and 300–600 million t CO2 /year in 2060; DACCS emission reduction potential is
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 211

Table 4.16 Forecast of contribution of CCUS application to carbon emission reduction in power
and steel industries
Parameter Year References and
2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 2060 basis

Contribution Power 0.0016 0.0038 0.0170 0.0395 0.0363 0.0349 Calculated based
of CCUS to industry on the proportion
carbon (tCO2 /MWh) of CCUS
emission emission
factor reductions in the
reduction industry and the
status quo of
carbon emission
factors
Steel (tCO2 /t 0.0068 0.0085 0.0962 0.1257 0.2040 0.3297 Calculated based
crude steel) on the proportion
of CCUS
emission
reductions in the
industry and the
status quo of
carbon emission
factors
Contribution tCO2 /vehicle 0.0248 0.0590 0.2656 0.6179 0.5672 0.5445 With reference to
of CCUS the China
application Automobile Low
in the power Carbon Action
sector to the Plan (CALCP)
carbon Research Report
emission 2021, it is
reduction in assumed that the
the service average service
stage of life of battery
battery electric vehicles
electric is 10 years, the
vehicles average annual
distance traveled
is 12,500 km,
and the power
consumption per
100 km is
12.5 kwh/100 km

expected to reach 50–100 million tCO2 /year in 2050, and 200–300 million tCO2 /year
in 2060 [149].
The automotive industry has a long industrial chain and involves many fields, and
some emission sources are scattered, making it difficult to completely reduce emis-
sions. It is expected that carbon neutrality will be achieved by combining negative
emission technologies such as DACCS and BECCS.
212 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

Fig. 4.42 Climeworks DACCS unit in Switzerland

4.2.9.4 Conclusion

Using CCUS can reduce carbon emissions related to power and steel industries, and
effectively reduce life cycle carbon emissions of vehicles. It is estimated that under
the carbon neutrality background, in 2060, the contribution of CCUS to reducing
the carbon emission factor of power industry is about 0.0349 tons CO2 /MWh, and
the contribution to reducing the carbon emission factor of steel industry is about
0.3297 tons CO2 /ton crude steel. Some of the greenhouse gases that are difficult to
be reduced in the automotive industry can be offset through DACCS and BECCS, to
ultimately achieve the carbon neutrality goal of the automotive industry.

4.2.10 Path 10: Ecological Carbon Sink

4.2.10.1 Background Information

The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed
out that it is necessary to create more material wealth and spiritual wealth to meet the
people’s growing needs for a better life, and to provide more high-quality ecological
products to meet the people’s growing needs for a beautiful ecological environ-
ment. On May 18, 2018, General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized at the National
Conference on Ecological and Environmental Protection that to speed up the resolu-
tion of ecological and environmental problems in the historical convergence period,
we must accelerate the establishment and improvement of an ecological economic
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 213

system with industrial ecologicalization and ecological industrialization as the main

body. In April 2021, the Opinions on Establishing and Improving the Value Realiza-
tion Mechanism of Ecological Products issued by the General Office of the Central
Committee of the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State
Council mentioned that the ecological industrialization and industrial ecological-
ization should be promoted, and the improvement of government-led sustainable
ecological product value realization path with enterprises and all sectors of society
involved and marketization operation applied should be accelerated. This series of
important deployments and requirements on the supply of ecological products and the
realization of their values have put forward new and higher requirements for the auto-
motive industry to adjust the industrial structure, change the production mode, better
support the supply of high-quality ecological products, and promote the realization
of the carbon neutrality goal.
The development of the automotive industry has experienced several different
stages, such as “Completely serving and subordinated to economic activities—
First serving economic activities and then treating environmental pollution—Serving
economic activities while considering environmental protection”. In the stage when
the automotive industry completely serves and is subordinate to economic activ-
ities, human society basically does not consider the problems of environmental
pollution and ecological damage; in the stage when the automotive industry first
serves economic activities and then treats environmental pollution, the production
technology system of automobiles has not been fundamentally changed to incorpo-
rate ecological benefits into the development of the industry; at the present stage,
although environmental issues, including material selection, fuel selection, etc., have
been considered during the design and production of new automotive technologies,
to a certain extent, the mode of first use, first pollution, and then treatment has been
abandoned. But objectively, the current development of the automotive industry is
still far from a truly systematic automotive industry ecologicalization.
Industrial ecologicalization refers to the process in which the industrial system
develops in harmony with nature through the transformation or adjustment of its
own structure and function. The connotation of this process can be very broad and
diverse, including various elements in science, technology and engineering. The
automotive industry ecologicalization mentioned herein refers to a virtuous circle in
which by taking the automobile product production and sustainable economic and
social development as the goals, the saving resources and environmental friendliness
as the fundamental basis, and the harmonious co-existence between human and nature
as the code of conduct, a green, low-carbon and recyclable process-based system is
established in links of production, distribution, circulation, consumption, use and
scraping and recycling, to minimize resource consumption and environmental pollu-
tion, and to help ecological environmental protection, so that the natural ecosystem
can provide more high-quality ecological products, thus forming “industrial devel-
opment—ecological products—ecological health”. However, there are still problems
such as unclear connotation of automotive industry ecologicalization, unclear char-
acteristics of direct products and derivatives produced, and unknown contribution
214 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

value of automotive industry ecologicalization to carbon neutrality and ecological

environmental protection.
Under the background of the “carbon peak and carbon neutrality” goals and
ecological priority, we must cultivate new driving forces for high-quality economic
development, deepen the structural reform of the supply side of ecological products,
continuously enrich the path for realizing the value of ecological products, cultivate
the new model for green transformation and development, and establish an ecological
economic system with industrial ecologicalization and ecological industrialization
as the main body. The automotive industry ecologicalization is an important part of
establishing a sound ecological economic system, which is conducive to making a
good ecological environment a strong support for sustainable economic and social
development. It brings huge opportunities, including scientific innovation, techno-
logical revolution, industrial format, etc. related to automotive industry ecological-
ization. It also faces challenges such as accurate identification, accurate accounting,
and participation in the realization path of ecological product value.

4.2.10.2 Future Forecast

Facing the future, to cope with the great changes unseen in a century and to realize
the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, we must stand on the new stage of devel-
opment, resolutely implement the new development concept of “innovation, coordi-
nation, green development, openness and sharing”, and strive to build a new devel-
opment pattern “taking the domestic market as the mainstay while letting domestic
and foreign markets boost each other”. The automotive industry ecologicalization
provides two types of ecological products. One type is the ecologicalization of the
automobiles, which provides ecological industrial products such as automobiles, and
the other type is the benign interaction that automobile ecologicalization feeds back
the natural ecosystem. The first type is easy to understand, for example, the low-
carbon production and use of automobiles; the second type of ecological products
is usually divided into three categories, the first category covers ecological mate-
rial products, including food, water resources, wood, ecological energy and biolog-
ical raw materials; the second category covers regulation service products, mainly
including water retention, climate regulation, carbon sequestration, oxygen produc-
tion, soil retention, environmental purification, flood mitigation, sand fixation, etc.;
the third category covers cultural service products, mainly including leisure and
recreation, eco-tourism, nature education, mental health, etc.
For the first type of ecologic automotive industrial products, it is necessary to
continuously optimize material technology, production technology and energy supply
technology, strive for a turning point in innovative technology with obvious break-
throughs around 2025, and strive to form the complete and clear technical framework
and performance characteristics when we hit carbon peak before 2030, to establish
a green industrial system, and make due contributions to the realization of carbon
neutrality before 2060.
4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 215

For the second type of ecological products, high-quality ecological products come
from good ecosystems, and the automotive industry ecologicalization first reduces
the damage to the natural ecology and pollution to the environment, and helps to
provide more ecological material products, regulation service products and cultural
service products; secondly, the automotive industry ecologicalization can free up
more space for the natural ecosystem to fix carbon emissions and pollutants from
other paths, and provide more ecological products such as carbon fixation, water
purification, air purification, and climate regulation. It is also necessary to carry out
ecological capitalization operations through ecological industrialization, and trans-
form the ecological benefits contained in ecological products into economic benefits
and ecological advantages into economic advantages. This requires that around 2025,
a relatively scientific value accounting system for the contribution of natural ecolog-
ical products to the automotive industry ecologicalization will be initially established,
so that some of the ecological advantages arising therefrom can be transformed into
economic advantages. By 2035, a complete mechanism for realizing the value of
ecological products related to the automotive industry ecologicalization will be estab-
lished in an all-round way. For example, accounting and value realization research
can be carried out with reference to the carbon sink transaction of Inner Mongolia
Forest Industry Group. The ecological function area of the Daxinganling forest region
operated by Inner Mongolia Forest Industry Group covers an area of 106,700 km2 ,
with an average annual emissions reductions of 7 million tons of CO2 equivalent. In
2014, Inner Mongolia Forestry Industry Group took the lead in launching the pilot
project of forest carbon sequestration in the national carbon sequestration market.
In 2017, the first 400,000 yuan forest carbon sequestration was successfully carried
out. You can refer to this trading system to calculate the carbon sink contribution in
the process of automotive industry ecologicalization and the contribution value to
the supply of ecological products, and then set the corresponding trading indicators
to develop a new ecological product trading market.

4.2.10.3 Conclusions and Recommendations

The automotive industry ecologicalization is a virtuous circle of “industrial devel-

opment—ecological products—ecological health” which is formed by taking the
harmonious co-existence between human and nature as the code of conduct and
by establishing a green, low-carbon and recyclable system. The researchers believe
that the automotive industry ecologicalization provides two types of ecological prod-
ucts. One type is the ecologicalization of the automobiles, which provides ecological
industrial products such as automobiles, and the other type is the ecological products
provided by the natural ecosystem due to the automobile industry ecologicalization,
which contains rich ecological product value. These viewpoints are the expansion and
extension of the connotation and denotation of automotive industry ecologicalization.
However, researchers also find that the definition and connotation of automotive
industry ecologicalization are still unclear, the characteristics of its direct products
and derivatives are not clear, and the contribution values of automotive industry
216 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive …

ecologicalization to carbon neutrality and ecological environmental protection are

not known. Therefore, for the automotive industry ecologicalization, the researchers
put forward the following goals: there will be innovative technologies with obvious
breakthroughs in 2025, and strive to form a complete and clear conceptual framework
and performance characteristics, and form a green industry when we hit carbon peak
before 2030. In 2025, a relatively scientific value accounting system for the contri-
bution of automotive industry ecologicalization to the supply of natural ecological
products will be initially established. By 2035, a complete mechanism for realizing
the value of ecological products related to the automotive industry ecologicalization
will be established in an all-round way.
In order to achieve these series of goals, this study puts forward the following
policy recommendations: adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping’s ecological civiliza-
tion thought, and deeply practice the concept of “lucid waters and lush mountains
are invaluable assets”; further define the definition and connotation of automotive
industry ecologicalization, and clarify its product characteristics and classification;
further build an ecological economic system with industrial ecologicalization and
ecological industrialization as the main body of the automotive industry; carry out
value accounting for the contribution of automotive industry ecologicalization to
the supply of ecological products, and build an ecological product value accounting
system; include carbon fixation products in the carbon market trading system.

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Chapter 5
Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction
Potential of the Automotive Industry
in the Future

5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction

Effect of a Vehicle

On the basis of the low-carbon transformation paths described above, this chapter
predicts the future life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles and commer-
cial vehicles of different fuel types. The emission reduction effect under the five
transformation paths of clean electricity, vehicle electrification (energy efficiency
improvement), fuel decarbonization, low-carbon materials and production digitaliza-
tion are considered respectively for prediction, and the combined results of capture,
utilization and storage and the previous paths are not listed separately. The emis-
sion reduction effect of two paths of transportation intelligence and shared mobility
will be described in the emission reduction results of the fleets in the next section.
The ecological carbon sequestration is not quantitatively analyzed herein due to
insufficient data.
According to the three future forecast scenarios established above—the reference
scenario, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario, this chapter
analyzes the life cycle carbon emissions, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions and fuel
cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles at the single
vehicle level, as well as carbon reduction potentials under carbon reduction paths.
Due to the coupling effects between carbon reduction measures, for example, the
order in which the two measures such as clean electricity (or fuel decarbonization)
and energy efficiency improvement are applied is different, the calculated emission
reductions of the two measures may vary. This section makes assessment in the
order of clean electricity (or fuel decarbonization), energy efficiency improvement,
low-carbon materials, and production digitization.

© China Machine Press 2023 223

Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd. et al.,
China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022),
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7502-8_5
224 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

5.1.1 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effects

of Passenger Vehicles

(1) Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles of different fuel
types
Figure 5.1 shows the forecast of life cycle carbon emission per unit mileage of gaso-
line passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger
vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, and battery electric passenger
vehicles, fuel cell electric passenger vehicles in 2025, 2030, 2050 and 2060 in the
three scenarios. As shown in the figure, in the three scenarios, the passenger vehicles
of the six fuel types have obvious emission reduction effects, but due to the charac-
teristics of the internal combustion engine, the emission reduction effects of gasoline
passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles and NOVC hybrid electric passenger
vehicles after 2050 will have a drop in small amplitude.
According to the life cycle carbon emission data per unit mileage from 2021
to 2060, the emission reduction effects of the fuel cell electric passenger vehicles,
battery electric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, diesel
passenger vehicles, gasoline passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger

Fig. 5.1 Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles

5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle 225

vehicles are reduced sequentially. Fuel cell electric passenger vehicles have the most
obvious emission reduction effects, with carbon emission per unit mileage reduced
by 91, 94 and 95%, respectively in the reference scenario, low-carbon scenario and
enhanced low-carbon scenario; followed by battery electric passenger vehicles, of
which carbon emission per unit mileage are reduced by 85, 90 and 94% in the
reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario, and the enhanced low-carbon scenario,
respectively, but they have much lower difficulty in carbon reduction compared with
fuel cell electric passenger vehicles though their carbon reduction potential is close to
that of fuel cell electric passenger vehicles. This is because the difficulty in progress
of hydrogen production and hydrogen storage technologies is much higher than
the clean electricity effects generated by improving the power structure; NOVC
hybrid electric passenger vehicles have the minimum emission reduction effects,
with carbon emission per unit mileage reduced by 40, 44 and 46%, respectively
in the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon
scenario; the emission reduction effects of gasoline passenger vehicles is reduced
by 40, 45 and 47%, respectively in the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario
and the enhanced low-carbon scenario. In the future, fuel cell electric passenger
vehicles and battery electric passenger vehicles will have a larger space for the life
cycle carbon emission reduction, while NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles
and gasoline passenger vehicles will have a smaller space for the life cycle carbon
emission reduction.
According to the life cycle carbon emission data per unit mileage in 2060, the
carbon emission intensities of diesel passenger vehicles, gasoline passenger vehi-
cles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger
vehicles, fuel cell electric passenger vehicles, and battery electric passenger vehicles
are reduced sequentially. Battery electric passenger vehicles have the lowest carbon
emission intensity, and its life cycle carbon emission per unit mileage in the refer-
ence scenario, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario are
only 22.8 g CO2 e/km, 15.5 g CO2 e/km and 9.6 g CO2 e/km, which is determined
by the low fuel cycle carbon emissions and further rapid decrease of battery electric
passenger vehicles; diesel passenger vehicles have the highest carbon emission inten-
sity, and its life cycle carbon emission per unit mileage in the reference scenario, the
low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario are 178.8 g CO2 e/km,
165.9 g CO2 e/km and 159.6 g CO2 e/km, respectively; the life cycle carbon emis-
sion per unit mileage of gasoline passenger vehicles in the reference scenario, the
low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario are 157.7 g CO2 e/km,
146.4 g CO2 e/km and 140.9 g CO2 e/km, respectively. In 2060, gasoline passenger
vehicles and diesel passenger vehicles will have higher life cycle carbon emissions,
while battery electric passenger vehicles will have obviously low carbon emissions.
In addition, as shown in Fig. 5.1, by comparing the passenger vehicles of six fuel
types, it can be found that the life cycle carbon emissions of fuel passenger vehiclepas-
senger vehicles (gasoline passenger vehiclepassenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehi-
cles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles) and fuel cell electric passenger vehi-
cles will have overlap to a certain extent in the future, and battery electric passenger
vehicles will always have the lowest carbon emissions, which means the development
226 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

direction of the lowest carbon emissions in the future. Based on the detailed anal-
ysis, it can be found that in the reference scenario, after 2030, the life cycle carbon
emissions of fuel cell electric passenger vehicles will gradually be lower than that of
fuel passenger vehicles within a few years; in the low-carbon scenario, in 2030, the
life cycle carbon emissions of fuel cell electric passenger vehicles can be reduced
to a level comparable to that of NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles that are
relatively low-carbon among fuel passenger vehicles; in the enhanced low-carbon
scenario, after 2030, the life cycle carbon emissions of fuel cell electric passenger
vehicles will be fully lower than those of fuel passenger vehicles within a few years.
It can be seen that from the perspective of life cycle carbon emissions, battery
electric passenger vehicles have absolute low-carbon emission advantage among
passenger vehicles of all fuel types, while fuel cell electric passenger vehicles
will gradually have carbon emission advantages with the low-carbon development
of the hydrogen production process, and gradually complete the catch-up of fuel
passenger vehicles (gasoline passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, NOVC
hybrid electric passenger vehicles) from 2025 to 2050.
(2) Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles of different
fuel types
Figure 5.2 shows the forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emission per unit mileage
of gasoline passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid elec-
tric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, battery electric
passenger vehicles, and fuel cell electric passenger vehicles in 2025, 2030, 2050
and 2060 in the reference, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon
scenario.
According to the vehicle cycle carbon emission per unit mileage from 2021
to 2060, in the reference scenario, the emission reduction effect of the fuel cell
electric passenger vehicles, gasoline passenger vehicles, battery electric passenger
vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles, and
plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles are reduced sequentially; fuel cell electric
passenger vehicles have the most obvious emission reduction effect, with a 75%
reduction in vehicle cycle carbon emissions, while plug-in hybrid electric passenger
vehicles have the minimum emission reduction effects, with a 70% reduction in
vehicle cycle carbon emissions; in the low-carbon scenario, the emission reduction
effects of the fuel cell electric passenger vehicles, battery electric passenger vehi-
cles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, gasoline passenger vehicles, NOVC
hybrid electric passenger vehicles and diesel passenger vehicles are reduced sequen-
tially; fuel cell electric passenger vehicles have the most obvious emission reduc-
tion effect, with a 79% reduction in vehicle cycle carbon emissions, while diesel
passenger vehicles have the minimum emission reduction effect, with a 74% reduc-
tion in vehicle cycle carbon emissions; in the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the
emission reduction effects of the battery electric passenger vehicles, fuel cell electric
passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, gasoline passenger
vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles and diesel passenger vehicles
are reduced sequentially; battery electric passenger vehicles have the most obvious
5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle 227

Fig. 5.2 Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles

emission reduction effect, with a 88% reduction in vehicle cycle carbon emissions,
while diesel passenger vehicles have the minimum emission reduction effect, with a
75% reduction in vehicle cycle carbon emissions;
According to the vehicle cycle carbon emission data per unit mileage in 2060, in
the reference scenario, the vehicle cycle carbon emission intensities of plug-in hybrid
electric passenger vehicles, fuel cell electric passenger vehicles, diesel passenger
vehicles, battery electric passenger vehicles, and NOVC hybrid electric passenger
vehicles are reduced sequentially; plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles have
the highest vehicle cycle carbon emission intensity, reaching 26.7 g CO2 e/km, while
gasoline passenger vehicles have the lowest vehicle cycle carbon emission inten-
sity, reaching 17.7 g CO2 e/km; in the low-carbon scenario, the vehicle cycle carbon
emission intensities of diesel passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger
vehicles, fuel cell electric passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehi-
cles, gasoline passenger vehicles, and battery electric passenger vehicles are reduced
sequentially; the diesel passenger vehicles have the highest vehicle cycle carbon emis-
sion intensity, reaching 22.2 g CO2 e/km, while battery electric passenger vehicles
have the lowest vehicle cycle carbon emission intensity, reaching 13.9 g CO2 e/km;
in the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the vehicle cycle carbon emission intensities of
diesel passenger vehicles, fuel cell electric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid elec-
tric passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles, gasoline passenger
228 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

vehicles, and battery electric passenger vehicles are reduced sequentially; the diesel
passenger vehicles have the highest vehicle cycle carbon emission intensity, reaching
20.9 g CO2 e/km, while battery electric passenger vehicles have the lowest vehicle
cycle carbon emission intensity, reaching 8.5 g CO2 e/km.
To sum up, from 2021 to 2060, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of various
types of passenger vehicles show a steady decline and the decline trend is basically
the same. Except for fuel cell electric passenger vehicles, no obvious difference is
found among other types of passenger vehicles, and the decline range is 69–88%.
The reason is that the vehicle cycle emission reduction measures taken for passenger
vehicles of various fuel types are basically the same, and most of emission reductions
benefit by the material side. The contribution of the unique hydrogen fuel cell system
materials of the fuel cell electric passenger vehicles to carbon emission reductions
is relatively obvious.
(3) Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles of different fuel
types
Figure 5.3 shows the forecast of fuel cycle carbon emission per unit mileage of gaso-
line passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger
vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, battery electric passenger vehi-
cles, and fuel cell electric passenger vehicles in 2025, 2030, 2050, and 2060 in the
reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario.
According to the fuel cycle carbon emission per unit mileage from 2021 to 2060,
in the reference scenario, the emission reduction effects of battery electric passenger
vehicles, fuel cell electric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehi-
cles, diesel passenger vehicles, gasoline passenger vehicles and NOVC hybrid elec-
tric passenger vehicles are reduced sequentially; battery electric passenger vehi-
cles have the most obvious emission reduction effect, with a 97% reduction in fuel
cycle carbon emissions, which is due to the fact that clean electricity can reach a
high level even in the reference scenario, helping battery electric passenger vehi-
cles to achieve greater emission reductions, while hybrid electric passenger vehicles
have the minimum emission reduction effect, with a reduction of 27% in fuel cycle
carbon emissions; in the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario,
the emission reduction effects of fuel cell electric passenger vehicles, battery elec-
tric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, diesel passenger
vehicles, gasoline passenger vehicles, and NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles
are reduced sequentially; fuel cell electric passenger vehicles have the most obvious
emission reduction effect, with a reduction of about 99% in fuel cycle carbon emis-
sions, followed by battery electric passenger vehicles, which have reductions of 98
and 99%, respectively, very close to the level of fuel cell electric passenger vehicles;
this is because in low-carbon and enhanced low-carbon scenarios, the progress of
hydrogen production and hydrogen storage technologies is sufficient to make the
emission reduction effect of fuel cell electric passenger vehicles with higher fuel
cycle carbon emissions exceeds that of battery electric passenger vehicles, while
hybrid electric passenger vehicles have the minimum emission reduction effect, with
reductions of 31 and 34% in fuel cycle carbon emissions.
5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle 229

Fig. 5.3 Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles

According to the fuel cycle carbon emissions data per unit mileage in 2060,
in the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon
scenario, the fuel cycle carbon emission intensities of diesel passenger vehicles,
gasoline passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles, plug-in
hybrid electric passenger vehicles, fuel cell electric passenger vehicles, and battery
electric passenger vehicles are reduced sequentially; diesel passenger vehicles
have the highest fuel cycle carbon emission intensity, reaching 153.6 g CO2 e/km,
143.7 g CO2 e/km and 138.7 g CO2 e/km, respectively, while battery electric passenger
vehicles have the minimum carbon emission intensity, reaching 2.2 g CO2 e/km,
1.6 g CO2 e/km and 1.1 g CO2 e/km, respectively.
To sum up, the change trend of the fuel cycle carbon emissions is similar to that
of life cycle carbon emissions shown in Fig. 5.1. From 2021 to 2060, fuel passenger
vehicles (gasoline passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid elec-
tric passenger vehicles) will show different decline rates in different scenarios, but
the overall carbon emissions are relatively high, which is limited by the development
potential of internal combustion engines, while plug-in hybrid electric passenger
vehicles and battery electric passenger vehicles have long been at a relatively low
level of carbon emissions, especially battery electric passenger vehicles have always
230 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

been in an absolute low-carbon status, which is determined by the stable and low-
carbon development due to clean electricity. Fuel cell electric passenger vehicles
are quite special. Due to the rapid development of the hydrogen production process,
the fuel cycle carbon emission level of the fuel cell electric passenger vehicles will
rapidly drop to below that of the fuel passenger vehicles in the three scenarios, and
will be lower than that of the plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles before 2050, and will
approach the level of battery electric passenger vehicles in 2060.
(4) Analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric
passenger vehicles
The aforementioned comparisons show that battery electric passenger vehicles have
excellent performance in life cycle, vehicle cycle and fuel cycle carbon emission
reductions in different scenarios. The previously-mentioned fleet researches show
that battery electric passenger vehicles will have a high market share, so we choose
them for analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential in the three
scenarios.
The analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric
passenger vehicles is shown in Figs. 5.4 and 5.5. The largest contributor to the emis-
sion reduction of battery electric passenger vehicles is clean electricity. In 2030, its
emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will be 19–43%, and in 2060,
the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will stabilize at 51–52%;
this is because the carbon emission level has been stabilized to a very low level
as the clean electricity of the grid structure develops. In 2030, the contribution of
energy efficiency improvement to emission reduction of battery electric passenger
vehicles in different scenarios will be 3–6%, and in 2060, its emission reduction
contribution in different scenarios will stabilize at about 1%; this is because of the
combined effects of energy efficiency improvement and clean electricity on the fuel
cycle carbon emission reduction of battery electric passenger vehicles, and as the
use frequency of clean electricity increases and the emission reduction effect of
energy efficiency improvement tends to decrease. Therefore, among different emis-
sion reduction measures, the effect of energy efficiency improvement is the least
obvious; the low-carbon materials are also very important for the carbon emission
reduction of battery electric passenger vehicles, which can reduce the carbon emis-
sions of battery electric passenger vehicles by 11–21%; with the development of new
energy technologies, the production digitalization of battery electric passenger vehi-
cles has an increasingly obvious effect on the carbon emission reduction of battery
electric passenger vehicles, with a reduction of 7–20%; under the combined action of
various factors, in 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of battery electric passenger
vehicles will have a maximum reduction of 6% of that in 2021.
5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle 231

Fig. 5.4 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of passenger vehicles in 2030. a Reference
scenario. b Low-carbon scenario. c Enhanced low-carbon scenario
232 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

Fig. 5.5 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of passenger vehicles in 2060. a Reference
scenario. b Low-carbon scenario. c Enhanced low-carbon scenario
5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle 233

5.1.2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effects

of Commercial Vehicles

5.1.2.1 Forecast of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Commercial

Vehicles of Different Fuel Types

(1) Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks of different fuel
types

Figure 5.6 shows the forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks
of different fuel types. As shown in the figure, life cycle carbon emissions of fuel
light-duty trucks (gasoline light-duty trucks, diesel light-duty trucks, NOVC hybrid
light-duty trucks) from 2020 to 2060 show a steady decline, with a decline range of
34–76%, and in the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced
low-carbon scenario, the carbon emissions of gasoline light-duty trucks are reduced
by 34, 58 and 71%, the carbon emissions of diesel light-duty trucks are reduced
by 45, 66 and 76%, and the carbon emissions of NOVC hybrid light-duty trucks
are reduced by 46, 66 and 76%. The life cycle carbon emissions of battery electric
light-duty trucks and fuel cell electric light-duty trucks show a fast decline, with a
decline range over 90%, and in the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario and
the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the carbon emissions of battery electric light-duty
trucks are reduced by 93, 94 and 95%, and the carbon emissions of fuel cell electric
light-duty trucks are reduced by 94, 96 and 97%.
In addition, as shown in Fig. 5.6, by comparing the life cycle carbon emissions of
light-duty trucks of five fuel types, it can be found that the life cycle carbon emission
per unit turnover of fuel light-duty trucks (gasoline light-duty trucks, diesel light-
duty trucks, NOVC hybrid light-duty trucks) and fuel cell electric light-duty trucks
will have intersections and overlaps in the future. As the carbon emission level of the
hydrogen production process decreases, fuel cell electric light-duty trucks gradually
show their carbon emission advantages in the later stage, while battery electric light-
duty trucks are always the models with the lowest carbon emissions, and still mean
the development direction of the lowest carbon in the future. Based on the detailed
analysis, it can be found that in the reference scenario, after 2030, the life cycle carbon
emission per unit turnover of fuel cell electric light-duty trucks may be gradually
reduced to below those of gasoline light-duty trucks, diesel light-duty trucks and
NOVC hybrid light-duty trucks; in the low-carbon scenario, from 2025 to 2030, the
life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of fuel cell electric light-duty trucks may
be gradually reduced to below those of gasoline light-duty trucks, and after 2030,
they may be lower than those of diesel light-duty trucks and NOVC hybrid light-duty
trucks; in the enhanced low-carbon scenario, from 2021 to 2025, life cycle carbon
emission per unit turnover of fuel cell electric light-duty trucks may be lower than
those of gasoline light-duty trucks, from 2025 to 2030, they may be lower than those
of diesel light-duty trucks, and after 2030, they may be lower than those of NOVC
hybrid light-duty trucks.
234 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

Fig. 5.6 Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks

It can be seen that in terms of life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover, battery
electric light-duty trucks have absolute low-carbon emission advantages in all types
of fuel light-duty trucks, while fuel cell electric light-duty trucks gradually have
carbon emission advantages with low carbon of the hydrogen production process,
and can gradually complete the replacement to fuel light-duty trucks (gasoline light-
duty trucks, diesel light-duty trucks, NOVC hybrid light-duty trucks) between 2030
and 2050.
(2) Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks of different fuel
types
Figure 5.7 shows the forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks
of different fuel types. As shown in the figure, from 2020 to 2050, the life cycle
carbon emissions of light-duty trucks of different fuel types show a steady decline,
with a decline range of 65–78%, the decline trend is almost parallel, and there is no
intersection among different models. The reason is that the measures taken for the
vehicle cycle emission reduction of light-duty trucks of different fuel types are the
same, and the difference in emission reductions is only related to the contribution
rate of emission reduction measures for light-duty trucks of different fuel types.
5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle 235

Fig. 5.7 Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks

(3) Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks of different fuel
types
Figure 5.8 shows the forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks
of different fuel types. As shown in the figure, the change trend of the fuel cycle
carbon emissions is similar to that of life cycle carbon emission shown in Fig. 5.7.
For fuel light-duty trucks (gasoline light-duty trucks, diesel light-duty trucks, NOVC
hybrid light-duty trucks), from 2021 to 2060, the rates of decline will be different
in different scenarios. This is related to different set levels of the energy efficiency
improvement, the extent of fuel decarbonization and other parameters. For battery
electric light-duty trucks and fuel cell electric light-duty trucks, before 2050, the fuel
cycle carbon emissions will keep a rapid decline rate, which is related to the rapid
development of green power in China, and after 2050, carbon emissions in the power
industry will reach a relatively low level, the decline will slow down, and the decline
of corresponding fuel cycle carbon emissions will also slow down.
236 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

Fig. 5.8 Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks

(4) Analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric
light-duty trucks
The aforementioned comparisons show that battery electric light-duty trucks have
excellent performance in life cycle, vehicle cycle and fuel cycle carbon emission
reductions in different scenarios. The previously-mentioned fleet researches show
that battery electric light-duty trucks will have a high market share, so we choose them
for analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential in the three scenarios.
The analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery elec-
tric light-duty trucks is shown in Figs. 5.9 and 5.10. The largest contributor to the
emission reduction of battery electric light-duty trucks is clean electricity. In 2030,
its emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will be 29–67%, and in
2060, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will stabilize at 79–
81%; this is because the carbon emission level has been stabilized to a very low
level as the clean electricity of the grid structure develops. Since the energy effi-
ciency improvement has a limited effect on the carbon emission reduction of battery
5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle 237

electric light-duty trucks, in 2030, the emission reduction contribution of energy effi-
ciency improvement of battery electric light-duty trucks in different scenarios will
be 4–9%, and in 2060, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will
stabilize at 1%; this is because of the combined effect of energy efficiency improve-
ment and clean electricity on the fuel cycle carbon emission reductions of battery
electric passenger vehicles, and. as the use frequency of clean electricity increases
and the emission reduction effect of energy efficiency improvement tends to decrease.
Therefore, among different emission reduction measures, the effect of energy effi-
ciency improvement is limited; with development of low-carbon materials, the use
of low-carbon materials in battery electric light-duty trucks has an effect of 4–9% on
the carbon emission reduction of battery electric light-duty trucks; the contribution
of production digitalization to the life cycle emission reduction of battery electric
light-duty trucks only accounts for only 4–9%. This is because the overall carbon
emission level of light-duty trucks is relatively high and the production link has a
limited impact on it; under the combined action of various factors, in 2060, the life
cycle carbon emissions of battery electric light-duty trucks can be reduced to at most
5% of the level in 2021.

5.1.2.2 Forecast of Life Cycle Carbon Emission of Heavy-Duty Trucks

of Different Fuel Types

Heavy-Duty Single-Unit Truck

(1) Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of
different fuel types
Figure 5.11 shows the forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty single-
unit trucks of different fuel types, and the life cycle carbon emissions of them show a
steady decline. Among them, the life cycle carbon emissions of trucks fueled by fossil
energy (diesel heavy-duty single-unit trucks NOVC hybrid heavy-duty single-unit
trucks, and natural gas heavy-duty single-unit trucks) are decreased by no more than
50%. Among the new energy trucks, the life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover
of battery electric heavy-duty trucks will be slightly higher than those of the natural
gas heavy-duty trucks in 2021. With the promotion of clean electricity, the natural
gas heavy-duty truck will become the model with the lowest carbon emission level
in 2060, and the life cycle carbon emission reduction will reach 95%.
(2) Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of
different fuel types
Figure 5.12 shows the forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty
single-unit trucks of different fuel types, and it is consistent with the forecast of the
life cycle carbon emissions, showing a decline trend year by year. Among them,
the decline trend of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of battery electric and NOVC
hybrid heavy-duty trucks show a large slope, and can reach 76 and 77%, respectively
by 2060. From 2020 to 2060, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of new energy
238 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

Fig. 5.9 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric light-duty trucks
5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle 239

Fig. 5.10 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric light-duty trucks in
2060
240 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

Fig. 5.11 Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty single-unit trucks

vehicles and battery electric passenger vehicles will always be higher than those of
traditional fuel vehicles, which is mainly due to the high carbon emission levels of
new energy-specific parts, such as lithium-ion batteries.

(3) Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of

different fuel types
Figure 5.13 shows the results of forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty
single-unit trucks of different fuel types. It can be seen from the figure, the fuel cycle
carbon emission level of battery electric heavy-duty single-unit trucks has always
been kept at the lowest level.
(4) Analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric
heavy-duty single-unit trucks

The aforementioned comparisons show that battery electric heavy-duty single-unit

trucks have excellent performance in life cycle, vehicle cycle and fuel cycle carbon
emission reductions in different scenarios. At the current stage, a small number of fuel
cell electric heavy-duty single-unit trucks are provided. The previously-mentioned
fleet researches show that battery electric heavy-duty single-unit trucks will have
a high market share, so we choose them for analysis of life cycle carbon emission
reduction potential.
5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle 241

Fig. 5.12 Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty single-unit trucks

The analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric
heavy-duty single-unit trucks is shown in Figs. 5.14 to 5.15. The largest contributor
to the emission reduction of battery electric heavy-duty single-unit trucks is clean
electricity. In 2030, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will
be between 30–68%, and in 2060, the emission reduction contribution in different
scenarios will stabilize at 81–83%, this is because the carbon emission level has been
stabilized to a very low level as the clean electricity of the grid structure develops.
Since the energy efficiency improvement has a limited effect on the carbon emission
reduction of battery electric heavy-duty single-unit trucks, in 2030, the emission
reduction contribution of energy efficiency improvement of battery electric heavy-
duty single-unit trucks in different scenarios will account for 6–9%, and in 2060,
the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will stabilize at about 1%;
this is because of the combined effect of energy efficiency improvement and clean
electricity on the fuel cycle carbon emission reduction of battery electric passenger
vehicles, and as the use frequency of clean electricity increases, the emission reduc-
tion effect of energy efficiency improvement tends to decrease. With the low-carbon
development of materials, the use of low-carbon materials in battery electric heavy-
duty trucks has an effect of 3–8% on the carbon emission reduction of battery elec-
tric heavy-duty single-unit trucks; the contribution of production digitalization to
the life cycle emission reductions of battery electric heavy-duty single-unit trucks
242 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

Fig. 5.13 Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty single-unit trucks

only accounts for 2–4%. This is because the overall carbon emission level of heavy-
duty trucks is relatively high and the emissions concentrate in the fuel cycle, and
the production link has a limited impact on it; under the combined action of various
factors, in 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of battery electric heavy-duty trucks
can be reduced to at most 5% of the level in 2021.
Heavy-Duty Dump Truck
(1) Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty dump trucks of different
fuel types
Figure 5.16 shows the forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty dump
trucks of different fuel types, and the life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty trucks
of different fuel types show a steady decline. Different from heavy-duty single-unit
trucks, natural gas dump trucks had the lowest carbon emission level among dump
trucks of all fuel types in 2021. However, with the advancement of clean electricity
and clean hydrogen production process, advantages of emission reduction of fuel cell
electric and battery electric heavy-duty dump trucks are gradually highlighted. In the
reference scenario, the emission reduction potential of diesel and natural gas heavy-
duty dump trucks is relatively limited, and in 2060, the annual carbon emissions will
drop by about 45% compared with 2021. The emission reduction potentials of new
energy vehicles, such as battery electric heavy-duty dump trucks and fuel cell electric
heavy-duty dump trucks can reach 90 and 94%. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario,
5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle 243

Fig. 5.14 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric heavy-duty single-unit
trucks
244 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

Fig. 5.15 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric heavy-duty single-unit
trucks in 2060
5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle 245

Fig. 5.16 Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty dump trucks

the emission reduction potentials of battery electric heavy-duty dump trucks and fuel
cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks can reach 92 and 98%.

(2) Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty dump trucks of

different fuel types

Figure 5.17 shows the forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty dump
trucks of different fuel types, and it is consistent with the forecast of the life cycle
carbon emission, showing a decline trend year by year. Among them, the decline
trend of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of fuel cell electric, battery electric and
NOVC hybrid heavy-duty dump trucks shows a large slope, and can reach 66, 67 and
62%, respectively by 2060. From 2020 to 2060, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions
of new energy vehicles, battery electric heavy-duty dump trucks and fuel cell electric
heavy-duty dump trucks will always be higher than those of traditional fuel heavy-
duty dump trucks, which is mainly due to the high carbon emission levels of new
energy-specific parts, such as lithium-ion batteries and hydrogen fuel system. The
vehicle cycle carbon emissions of natural gas heavy-duty dump trucks is almost the
same as that of diesel heavy-duty dump trucks, which are difficult to be identified in
the figure.
246 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

Fig. 5.17 Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty dump trucks

(3) Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty dump trucks of different
fuel types
Figure 5.18 shows the results of forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of heavy-
duty dump trucks of different fuel types. Consistent with the trend of the life cycle
carbon emission forecast, the carbon emissions of fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump
trucks are several times those of heavy-duty dump trucks of other fuel types in 2021.
With the development of the clean hydrogen production process, hydrogen fuel will
surpass diesel, NOVC hybrid and natural gas to become the fuel type with relative
emission reduction advantages from 2040 to 2050, but battery electric is always the
fuel option with the lowest carbon emission level.

(4) Analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of fuel cell electric
heavy-duty dump trucks
The aforementioned comparisons show that fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks
have excellent performance in life cycle, vehicle cycle and fuel cycle carbon emission
reductions in different scenarios. The previously-mentioned fleet researches show
that fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks will have a high market share, so we
choose them for analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential.
The analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of fuel cell electric
heavy-duty dump trucks is shown in Figs. 5.19 to 5.20. The largest contributor to
5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle 247

Fig. 5.18 Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty dump trucks

the emission reduction of fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks is fuel decar-
bonization, that is, the carbon emissions of hydrogen fuel production are gradually
reduced. In 2030, its emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will be
22–45%, and in 2060, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will
stabilize at 85–92%; the relatively large gap between contribution rates of the two
key time nodes is due to the rapid reduction in carbon emissions of hydrogen fuel
as the hydrogen production process advances, corresponding to the change trend of
fuel cycle carbon emissions of fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks; in 2030,
the contribution of energy efficiency improvement to the carbon emission reduction
of fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks in different scenarios will account for
18–25%, and in 2060, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will
stabilize at about 3–7%, and the carbon emission reduction effect of the energy effi-
ciency improvement on fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks is obvious in the
early stage, but the effect is gradually attenuated in the later stage. This is because of
the combined effects of energy efficiency improvement and fuel decarbonization on
the fuel cycle carbon emission reduction of fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks,
and as the degree of fuel decarbonization increases, the emission reduction effect of
energy efficiency improvement tends to decrease. The low-carbon materials and the
production digitization have a relatively small contribution to emission reduction,
and the combined contribution to the life cycle carbon emission reduction of fuel cell
electric heavy-duty dump trucks accounts for only 1–4%, in particular, the contribu-
tion of production digitization is almost negligible, because the carbon emissions of
heavy-duty trucks are large and concentrated in the fuel cycle, and the low-carbon
248 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

materials and production digitization have little effect on emissions reductions; under
the combined effect of various factors, in 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of
fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks can be reduced to 2% of the level in 2021.
Heavy-Duty Tractor
(1) Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors of different fuel
types
Figure 5.21 shows the forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors
of different fuel types, and the life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors
of different fuel types show a steady decline. Among them, the life cycle carbon
emissions of tractors fueled by fossil energy (diesel heavy-duty tractors, NOVC
hybrid heavy-duty tractors and natural gas heavy-duty tractors) reveal a smooth
decline. Among the new energy models, the fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors
reveal the largest decline rate, from the highest carbon emission level in 2021 to the
lowest carbon emission level in 2060, with a drop of 99%. The carbon emission level
of battery electric heavy-duty tractors in 2021 was higher than that of natural gas and
NOVC hybrid heavy-duty tractors. With the advancement of clean electricity, battery
electric heavy-duty tractors will quickly become the models with the lowest carbon
emission level before 2030, and their carbon emission level will not be surpassed by
that of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors until around 2060, and their life cycle
emission reduction potential will reach 95%.
As shown in the figure, due to the uncleanness of the current hydrogen production
process, the carbon emission level of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors in 2021
was much higher than that of heavy-duty tractors of other fuel types. As the carbon
emission level of the hydrogen production process declines, fuel cell electric heavy-
duty tractors gradually show comparative advantages, and their carbon emission level
will surpass those of the diesel heavy-duty tractors, hybrid heavy-duty tractors and
natural gas heavy-duty tractors around 2040, and fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors
will further become the models with the lowest carbon emission level in 2060.
(2) Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors of different
fuel types
Figure 5.22 shows the forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty
tractors of different fuel types, and it is consistent with the forecast results of the
vehicle cycle carbon emission, showing a decline trend year by year. Among them,
the decline trend of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of fuel cell electric, battery electric
and NOVC hybrid heavy-duty tractors shows a large slope, and can reach 62, 68 and
63%, respectively by 2060. From 2020 to 2060, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions
of such new energy heavy-duty tractors as battery electric heavy-duty tractors and
fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors will always be higher than that of traditional
fuel heavy-duty tractors, which is mainly due to the high carbon emission levels of
new energy-specific parts, such as lithium-ion batteries and hydrogen fuel system.
5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle 249

Fig. 5.19 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump
trucks in 2030
250 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

Fig. 5.20 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump
trucks in 2060
5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle 251

Fig. 5.21 Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors

(3) Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors of different fuel
types
Figure 5.23 shows the results of forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty
tractors of different fuel types. Consistent with the trend of the life cycle carbon emis-
sion forecast, the carbon emissions of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors are several
times those of heavy-duty tractors of other fuel types in 2021. With the development
of the clean hydrogen production process, fuel cell will surpass diesel, NOVC hybrid
and natural gas and become the fuel type with relative emission reduction advantages
from 2040 to 2050.
(4) Analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of fuel cell electric
heavy-duty tractors
After the above comparison, it is found that fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors have
excellent performance in life cycle, vehicle cycle and fuel cycle carbon emission
reductions in different scenarios. Combined with the previous fleet research, the
future proportion of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors is more optimistic, so we
choose them for analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential.
The analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of fuel cell electric
heavy-duty tractors is shown in Figs. 5.24 and 5.25. The largest contributor to the
252 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

Fig. 5.22 Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors

emission reduction of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors is fuel decarbonization,

that is, the carbon emissions of hydrogen fuel production are gradually reduced.
In 2030, its emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will be between
23–46%, and in 2060, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will
stabilize at 87–94%; the relatively large gap between contribution ratios of the two
key time nodes is due to the rapid reduction in carbon emissions of hydrogen fuel
as the hydrogen production process advances, corresponding to the change trend
of fuel cycle carbon emissions of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors; in 2030,
the contribution of energy efficiency improvement to the carbon emission reduction
of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors in different scenarios will account for 25–
26%, and in 2060, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will
stabilize at about 3–7%, and the carbon emission reduction effect of the energy effi-
ciency improvement on fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors is obvious in the early
stage, but the effect is gradually attenuated in the later stage; this is because of the
combined effect of energy efficiency improvement and fuel decarbonization on the
fuel cycle carbon emission reduction of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors, and as
the extent of fuel decarbonization increases, the emission reduction effect of energy
efficiency improvement tends to decrease. The low-carbon materials and the produc-
tion digitization have a relatively small contribution to emission reduction, and the
5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle 253

Fig. 5.23 Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors

combined contribution to the life cycle carbon emission reduction of fuel cell electric
heavy-duty tractors only accounts for 1–2%, in particular, the contribution of produc-
tion digitization is almost negligible, because the carbon emissions of heavy-duty
trucks are large and concentrated in the fuel cycle, and the low-carbon materials and
production digitization have little effect on emission reduction; under the combined
effect of various factors, in 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of fuel cell electric
heavy-duty tractors will be reduced to 1% of the level in 2021.

5.1.2.3 Forecast of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Buses of Different

Fuel Types

(1) Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of buses of different fuel types

Figure 5.26 shows the forecast of life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of
buses of different fuel types. As shown in the figure, the carbon emissions of buses
of five fuel types gradually decrease over time. From 2021 to 2050, the total carbon
emissions of buses powered by fossil fuel (diesel buses, natural gas buses, and plug-
in hybrid buses) will steadily decline, with a decline rate of more than 60%. In
the reference scenario, low-carbon scenario and enhanced low-carbon scenario, the
254 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

Fig. 5.24 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors
in 2030
5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle 255

Fig. 5.25 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors
in 2060
256 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

carbon emissions of diesel buses are reduced by 68, 80 and 86%, the carbon emissions
of natural gas buses are reduced by 64, 77 and 84%, and the carbon emissions of
plug-in hybrid buses are reduced by 68, 70 and 72%. The life cycle carbon emissions
of battery electric buses and fuel cell electric buses show a rapid decline trend, with
a decrease rate of 90%. Among them, in the reference scenario, low-carbon scenario
and enhanced low-carbon scenario, the carbon emissions of battery electric buses
are reduced by 89, 91 and 92%, and the carbon emissions of fuel cell electric buses
are reduced by 90, 94 and 96%.
Based on the comparison of the buses of five fuel types, it can be found that the life
cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of plug-in hybrid buses and battery electric
buses will overlap from 2021 to 2025. This is mainly because plug-in hybrid buses
have lower fuel consumption and have advantages in the current situation where
clean electricity is still insufficient, the batteries of plug-in hybrid buses are small,
and the carbon emissions of batteries are less than those of battery electric buses.
It can also be found that life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of fuel cell
electric buses intersect with those of diesel buses, natural gas buses, and plug-in
hybrid buses. With the optimization of hydrogen production process and hydrogen
energy source structure, fuel cell electric buses show great advantages in carbon
emission reduction, which are mainly manifested after 2040. In this forecast, it is

Fig. 5.26 Forecast of life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of buses
5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle 257

not unknown that the life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of fuel cell electric
buses are not less than those of battery electric buses, so battery electric buses are
still the development direction of the lowest carbon emissions in the future. It can
be seen that in terms of life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover, battery electric
buses still have the lowest carbon emission level among all buses of other fuel types,
and fuel cell electric buses gradually have advantages with the low carbonization
of the hydrogen production process. They can replace buses fueled by fossil energy
from 2030, and after 2050, they will have the ability to compete with plug-in hybrid
buses and battery electric buses.
(2) Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of buses of different fuel types
Figure 5.27 shows the forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of buses of different
fuel types. As shown in the figure, from 2021 to 2050, the vehicle cycle carbon
emissions of buses of different fuel types show a steady decline, with a decline extent
of 60–75%, and the decline trend is relatively smooth. In the reference scenario, the
low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the vehicle cycle carbon
emissions of diesel buses are reduced by 70, 74 and 76%, the vehicle cycle carbon
emissions of plug-in hybrid buses are reduced by 70, 74 and 76%, the vehicle cycle
carbon emissions of natural gas buses are reduced by 69, 74 and 75%, the vehicle
cycle carbon emissions of battery electric buses are reduced by 69, 72 and 75%, and
the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of fuel cell electric buses are reduced by 59, 63
and 65%. The low vehicle cycle carbon emission reduction of fuel cell electric buses
is mainly due to the application of a large number of carbon fiber and other materials
to the hydrogen storage tanks and to other components, and the emission reduction
path for these materials is not yet clear.
(3) Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of buses of different fuel types
Figure 5.28 shows the forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of buses of different
fuel types. As shown in the figure, the fuel cycle carbon emission reductions of diesel
buses, natural gas buses, and plug-in hybrid buses have a less obvious year-to-year
decline trend from 2021 to 2060. The main reason is that fossil fuels themselves do not
have sufficient low-carbon potential. For buses fueled by fossil energy, the fuel cycle
carbon emission reductions mainly result from the reduction of fuel consumption
and gas consumption, while the efficiency of internal combustion engines has a
small potential to be improved over time. The fuel cycle carbon emissions of fuel
cell electric buses decrease most significantly over time. From 2021 to 2060, they
will be reduced by 92, 96 and 99% in the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario,
and the enhanced low-carbon scenario, respectively. They are basically the same as
those of plug-in hybrid buses, but not lower than those of battery electric buses.
(4) Analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric
buses

The aforementioned comparisons show that battery electric buses have excellent
performance in life cycle, vehicle cycle and fuel cycle carbon emission reductions
258 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

Fig. 5.27 Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of buses

in different scenarios. The previously-mentioned fleet researches show that battery

electric buses will have a high market share, so we choose them for analysis of life
cycle carbon emission reduction potential in the three scenarios.
The analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric
buses is shown in Figs. 5.29 and 5.30.
The largest contributor to the emission reduction of battery electric buses is clean
electricity. In 2030, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will be
24–55%, and in 2060, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will
stabilize at 66–67%; this is because the carbon emission level will decline rapidly
and stabilize to a very low level in 2060 as the clean electricity of the grid structure
develops. Since the energy efficiency improvement has a limited effect on the carbon
emission reduction of battery electric buses, in 2030, the contribution of energy
efficiency improvement to the carbon emission reduction of battery electric buses in
different scenarios will be 6–12%, and in 2060, the emission reduction contribution in
different scenarios will stabilize at about 1–2%, which is due to the combined effect of
energy efficiency improvement and clean electricity on the fuel cycle carbon emission
reduction of battery electric buses, and as the use frequency of clean electricity
increases, the emission reduction effect of energy efficiency improvement tends to
decrease. With the development of low-carbon materials, the use of low-carbon
5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle 259

Fig. 5.28 Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of buses

materials in battery electric buses has an effect of 4–14% on the carbon emission
reduction of battery electric buses; the contribution of production digitalization to
the life cycle carbon emission reduction of battery electric buses will only account
for 3–9%. This is because the overall carbon emission level of battery electric buses
is relatively high and the emissions concentrate in the fuel cycle, and the production
link has a limited impact on it; under the combined action of various factors, in 2060,
the life cycle carbon emissions of battery electric buses will be reduced to at most
8% of the level in 2021.

5.1.3 Summary

(1) Carbon emissions of passenger vehicles: The life cycle carbon emissions of
battery electric passenger vehicles in various types of passenger vehicles will
always be at the lowest level in the future, but fuel cell electric passenger vehicles
will present a great emission reduction potential from 2021 to 2050, and reach
a carbon emission level close to that of battery electric passenger vehicles in
260 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

Fig. 5.29 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric buses in 2030
5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle 261

Fig. 5.30 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric buses in 2060. a
Reference scenario. b Low-carbon scenario. c Enhanced low-carbon scenario
262 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

2060; battery electric and fuel cell electric passenger vehicles will become the
most low-carbon models.
(2) Carbon emissions of commercial vehicles: In the future, battery electric
commercial vehicles will always have the lowest carbon emissions, so battery
electric light-duty trucks and buses may be further recognized by the market,
but fuel cell electric commercial vehicles will also gradually offer advantages in
carbon emission reductions from 2025 to 2050, the carbon emission level will
be gradually lower than that of traditional fuel vehicles, becoming a low-carbon
option second only to battery electric commercial vehicles. Due to the operating
environment, fuel cell electric heavy-duty trucks will have good development
prospects.
(3) Analysis of emission reduction potential: For battery electric vehicles or fuel cell
electric vehicles, the factor that has the greatest impact on the emission reduc-
tion potential in the reference scenario is the fuel decarbonization, that is, the
improvement of clean electricity and the low carbonization of China hydrogen
production process will be the greatest contribution to the life cycle carbon
emission reduction, while the low-carbon measures applied in the production
process will have a small effect on carbon emission reduction.

5.2 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction

Effect of Fleets

Based on the eight emission reduction paths of the automotive industry, and the
life cycle analysis of different fuel types and different model classes, the changing
trend of the carbon footprint of automobile products in different scenarios can be
quantified at the micro level. Due to the complex structure of vehicle ownership in
China, many types of fuels, many types of vehicles, different energy consumption
levels of vehicles manufactured in different years, different material emission levels,
and different power carbon emission factors, it is difficult to fully evaluate whether
the current emission reduction paths can meet the carbon peak and carbon neutrality
goals in automotive industry in China only based on the analysis of the product level.
In order to analyze the emission reduction effect of the automotive industry under
the top ten emission reduction paths from a macro level, this study uses the China
Automotive Life Cycle Assessment Model of fleet (CALCM-Fleet) to analyze the
carbon emission trend of China auto fleet in different scenarios, and evaluate the
emission reduction effect of different emission reduction measures.

5.2.1 Forecast of Vehicle Ownership

Due to the different driving factors of growth in the number of passenger vehicles
and commercial vehicles, different forecast methods are used. In terms of passenger
5.2 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Fleets 263

vehicles, it is believed that the increase in the vehicle ownership is mainly related to
the factors such as population, resident’s income, and urbanization rate. The forecast
is carried out by establishing the model of ownership per thousand people based on the
Gompertz curve. Since the ownership of commercial vehicles for cargo transportation
is mainly driven by the demand for economic activities, this study uses an elasticity
coefficient model to predict the trend of the truck ownership, while the ownership
of commercial vehicles for passenger transportation is mainly determined by the
mobility demand of residents. The increase of the bus ownership is limited and the
bus ownership has shown a decline trend with the development of transportation
modes such as subway, high-speed rail, and air transportation. This study makes
linear extrapolation according to the relationship between historical bus ownership
and the total population. The specific method is described in Sect. 5.2.4. According
to the forecast of China macro data, reporting of parameters such as GDP, total
population, and urbanization rate of China should be made with reference to the
research reports of the United Nations Population Division and related institutions.
For the sales of vehicles in the future years, this study calculates the vehicle owner-
ship and the vehicle scrapping in the future years to realize backward calculation of
the annual sales of various models based on the vehicle ownership and the vehicle
scrapping of each year. The method is described in Sect. 5.2.4. The annual scrapping
of various types of vehicles is calculated based on the survival curves of different
types of vehicles, and the survival curves are calculated based on the vehicle age data
over the years and the retention. For passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles,
due to differences in vehicle design, use intensity, and mandatory scrapping rules,
the survival laws may also vary. In terms of passenger vehicles, this study calcu-
lates the survival laws of four types of passenger vehicles: sedans, SUVs, MPVs,
and crossover passenger vehicles based on historical data. For commercial vehicles,
this study calculates the survival curves of six different types of light-duty single-
unit trucks, single-unit trucks, dump trucks, tractors, intercity buses, and city buses
respectively. For the same vehicle type, it is assumed that vehicles of different fuel
types have the same survival law. According to relevant researches, the survival curve
of a vehicle is generally defined by two methods: the first method is based on the
registration year of the vehicle, and the survival rate SRa,r is the probability that a
vehicle is registered in year r and survives for a years; the second method is based
on the survival situation of the vehicle in the previous year, and the concept of the
survival rate SRa is the probability that the vehicle continues to survive in the current
year under the condition that the vehicle is determined to survive in the previous year.
Based on the vehicle age data from 2012 to 2021, this study uses the second survival
rate calculation method to fit the survival curves of different types of vehicles. The
survival curves of different types of vehicles are shown in Fig. 5.31.
According to the calculation results of the model, there is still much room for
the growth of China’s vehicle ownership in the future. In terms of the total amount,
the vehicle ownership shows a trend of first increase and then decrease. In the early
stage, the vehicle ownership per capita is low, and the growth rate of the ownership
is relatively high. In the later stage, as the vehicle ownership per capita approaches
to saturation, the growth of the vehicle ownership slows down, and then shows a
264 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

Fig. 5.31 Survival curves of different types of vehicles. a Passenger vehicles. b Commercial
vehicles

slight decline. In terms of vehicle types, passenger vehicles still account for majority
of the vehicle ownership in China, and dominate the changing trend of the vehicle
ownership, which is consistent with the growth trend of vehicle ownership, but the
passenger vehicle ownership is more affected by the vehicle ownership per capita,
and its peak time is earlier than the overall peak time of the vehicle ownership.
Commercial vehicles account for a relatively small proportion of the vehicle owner-
ship in China. Since commercial vehicles are mainly used for cargo transportation,
the growth trend of their ownership is different from that of passenger vehicles. It
is more affected by China’s economic growth. The total ownership of commercial
vehicles will show an increase until 2060.

5.2.2 Energy Demand Forecast

China petroleum resources are mainly imported, and the automotive industry is one of
the main consumers of petroleum products. Vigorously developing new energy vehi-
cles can address climate issues, alleviate China’s dependence on petroleum resources,
and ensure China’s energy security. The increase of new energy vehicles will have
additional power demand, which will put some pressure on China’s power system
under the general trend of renewable energy power generation. This study calculates
the future energy demand in the automotive industry based on the forecast of future
vehicle ownership and the scenario settings for vehicle energy efficiency and distance
traveled.
Based on the forecast results of the vehicle ownership, this study calculates the
energy demand in China’s future vehicle driving stage in the three scenarios, as
shown in Fig. 5.32. In terms of total energy demand, in the three scenarios, the
5.2 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Fleets 265

future energy demand in China’s automotive industry is expected to peak before

2030. In the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-
carbon scenario, the energy demand in the automotive industry will peak in 2029,
2027 and 2025, respectively, and the peak energy demand will be 12.6, 12.2 and
12.0 × 1012 MJ, respectively. By 2060, the total energy demand in the reference
scenario will be 8.4 Mtoe, the total energy demand will drop to 7.3 × 1012 MJ in
the low-carbon scenario, and to 6.4 × 1012 MJ in the enhanced low-carbon scenario.
In terms of energy types, in the reference scenario, the main energy demand in the
future automotive industry is still fossil energy. By 2030, the demand for gasoline
and diesel will account for about 93.7% of the total energy demand. By 2060, due
to the increase in proportion of new energy vehicles, the proportion of gasoline and
diesel demand will drop to 58.3%. In the low-carbon scenario, the energy demand
in the early stage is still dominated by gasoline and diesel. With the increase of new
energy vehicles, especially the share of new energy vehicles in passenger vehicles,
the proportion of gasoline will be greatly reduced, but by 2060, traditional fuels will
still account for the majority, mainly consumed by commercial vehicles, with diesel
accounting for 40.5% of total energy demand by 2060, and power and hydrogen fuel
accounting for 23.7 and 31.3%, respectively. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario,
the demand for gasoline and diesel will drop significantly. By 2060, the demand for
gasoline and diesel will only account for about 13.2% of the total energy demand,
the demand for electric energy will increase to 29.8%, and the demand for hydrogen
fuel will be the highest, reaching 55.7%.

Fig. 5.32 Forecast of

China’s future energy
demand in the driving stage
of vehicles
266 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

The main energy required by passenger vehicles is gasoline, and the energy
demand will continue to rise in the short term. It is expected that the energy demand
will reach its peak before 2030, and the total energy demand will account for more
than half of the total energy demand in the automotive industry. Since the electrifi-
cation in the passenger vehicle field has a high level, the energy demand will drop
significantly after peaking, as shown in Fig. 5.33. In the reference scenario, the total
energy demand of passenger vehicles is expected to peak in 2028, with a peak value
of 7.2 × 1012 MJ. The demand for gasoline at the peak time accounts for more than
96.1% of the total energy demand, and the total energy demand keeps declining
after peaking to about 2.6 × 1012 MJ by 2060, 64.5% from the peak, of which the
demand for gasoline will drop to 46.9%, and the demand for electric energy will
rise to 45.5%. In the low-carbon scenario, the total energy consumption of passenger
vehicles is expected to peak in 2027, the peak energy consumption is 7.0 × 1012 MJ,
and the demand for gasoline accounts for 96.2% of the total energy demand. In 2060,
the total energy demand of passenger vehicles will drop to 1.8 × 1012 MJ, 74.3%
from the peak, of which the demand for gasoline will drop to 17.9%, the demand
for electric energy will rise to 70.5%, and the demand for hydrogen fuel will rise to
11.6%. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the total energy demand of passenger
vehicles will peak in advance in 2025, and the peak energy consumption will drop to
6.8 × 1012 MJ, which is 6.5% lower than that in the reference scenario. The demand
for gasoline accounts for 97.1% of total energy demand. By 2060, the total energy
demand will drop to 1.5 × 1012 MJ, with a decrease of 42.0% compared with that in
the reference scenario, 78.0% from the peak. The demand for gasoline will account
for less than 1% of the total energy demand. The demand for power energy will rise
to 80.1%, and the demand for hydrogen fuel will account for 13.2%.
Compared with passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles have more types, and
take diesel as the main energy in the early and medium terms. The changing trend of
energy demand in different scenarios may vary, but the overall change is not obvious.
As shown in Fig. 5.34, due to the limited extent of electrification of commercial
vehicles, there is little room for energy demand to fall, and there is no obvious
energy consumption peak. In the reference scenario, the total energy consumption of
commercial vehicles will continue to rise in the future. However, due to the reduction
of vehicle energy consumption and the promotion of NOVC hybrid commercial
vehicles, the rising trend of energy consumption will slow down compared with
the historical trend. By 2030, the energy demand of commercial vehicles will reach
5.4 × 1012 MJ, of which the demand for diesel will account for 89.5%. By 2060,
the energy demand of commercial vehicles will rise to 5.9 × 1012 MJ, with an
increase of 8.2% compared with the total energy consumption in 2030. Diesel will
still account for the vast majority of energy demand, about 63.3%. In the low-carbon
scenario, the energy consumption level will basically remain stable from 2021 to
2050. After 2050, as the proportion of fuel cell electric commercial vehicles in the
vehicle ownership increases significantly, the total energy consumption demand will
rise; by 2060, the total energy demand of commercial vehicles will reach 5.5 ×
1012 MJ, with a decrease of 6.9% compared with that in the reference scenario. Due
to the increase in the proportion of hydrogen fuel cell powered commercial vehicles,
5.2 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Fleets 267

Fig. 5.33 Forecast of

China’s future energy
demand in the driving stage
of passenger vehicles

the proportion of demand for diesel in the total energy demand will drop to 53.7%,
and the proportion of demand for hydrogen fuel will rise to 37.7%. In the enhanced
low-carbon scenario, the total energy demand shows a downward trend. By 2060, the
total energy demand will drop to 4.7 × 1012 MJ, with a decrease of 16.4% compared
with that in the reference scenario. Hydrogen fuel will become the main source of
energy demand for commercial vehicles and the demand for it accounts for 68.5.%
of the total energy demand, in addition, the demand for power energy accounts for
14.6%, and the demand for diesel drops to 16.7%.

5.2.3 Forecast of Carbon Emission Results

Automobiles are the main source of carbon emissions in China’s transportation sector.
According to the historical development trend of carbon emissions in China’s auto-
mobile sector and with reference to the development experience of developed coun-
tries, carbon emission reduction in the automobile sector will be one of the keys
to achieving China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. In addition, China’s
annual automobile production has long ranked first in the world. Although the carbon
emissions generated by the production and assembly of automobiles are lower than
those in the driving stage of automobiles, from the perspective of the whole life
cycle, the production of automobiles involves a large number of upstream raw mate-
rials and components industries and other high energy consumption and high carbon
268 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

Fig. 5.34 Forecast of

China’s future energy
demand in the driving stage
of commercial vehicles

emissions, such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and chemical industries. The decar-
bonization in the whole life cycle of the automotive industry can promote carbon
emission reduction in other upstream industries from the demand side. This study
uses the life cycle assessment model of China’s automobile fleet to calculate the trend
of life cycle carbon emissions of the automotive industry in the three scenarios.
Through model calculation, the future life cycle carbon emission trends of China’s
automotive industry in the three scenarios are shown in Fig. 5.35. In the reference
scenario, the life cycle carbon emissions of the automotive industry can achieve the
peaking target by 2030, but net zero emissions still face some challenges by 2060.
In the reference scenario, the life cycle carbon emissions of the automotive industry
is expected to peak in 2029, with a peak carbon emissions of 1.37 billion tons, and
then begin to decline year by year; by 2060, carbon emissions will drop to 510
million tons, with a drop of 62.8% from the peak carbon emissions, but there is still
some gap from net zero emissions. In the low-carbon scenario, the life cycle carbon
emissions of the automotive industry will peak in advance in 2022, with a peak carbon
emissions of 1.29 billion tons, and a decrease of about 5.8% compared with that in
the reference scenario. By 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions will drop to 270
million tons, with a decrease of 47.1% compared with that in the reference scenario
and a decrease of 79.1% compared with the peak carbon emissions in the low-carbon
scenario. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the life cycle carbon emissions in the
automotive industry are also expected to peak in 2022, with a peak carbon emissions
of 1.28 billion tons, with a decrease of 6.6% compared with that in the reference
scenario. With the increase in the proportion of new energy vehicles, the life cycle
5.2 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Fleets 269

Fig. 5.35 Life cycle carbon

emission trend of China’s
automotive industry

carbon emissions will be greatly reduced. By 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions
of the automotive industry will drop to 160 million tons, with a decrease of 68.6%
compared with that in the reference scenario and a decrease of 87.5% compared with
the peak carbon emissions in the enhanced low-carbon scenario.
From the perspective of the source of life cycle carbon emissions, the carbon
emissions in the automotive industry still mainly come from the fuel cycle, but with
the increase in the proportion of new energy vehicles, the proportion of vehicle
cycle carbon emissions will increase, as shown in Fig. 5.36. From 2012 to 2025, the
proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions will have a slight decline trend, which
is mainly due to the rapid growth of vehicle sales in China during this historical
period, resulting in a large number of new vehicles entering the fleet, and the low
level of vehicle ownership in China. Therefore, the proportion of new vehicles in the
ownership is relatively high. With the increase of vehicle ownership in China, the
proportion of new vehicles in the ownership will gradually decrease, so the fuel cycle
carbon emissions will gradually increase. In the reference scenario, although the sales
volume of automobiles has increased, the decline in fuel cycle carbon emissions is
comparable to the decline in vehicle cycle carbon emissions, so the ratio of vehicle
cycle carbon emissions to fuel cycle carbon emissions will remain basically the same
at 1:4 for a long period of time. The vehicle cycle carbon emissions will rise to 25.1%
by 2060. In the low-carbon scenario, as the proportion of new energy vehicles in the
ownership continues to increase, and the vehicle cycle carbon emission level of new
energy vehicles is higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, the decline in fuel cycle
carbon emissions exceeds the decline in vehicle cycle carbon emissions. By 2060, the
proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions in the life cycle carbon emissions will
rise to 37.7%. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the life cycle carbon emission
reduction benefits of new energy vehicles will be further enlarged, and the proportion
of vehicle cycle carbon emissions will continue to rise. By 2060, vehicle cycle carbon
emissions will dominate the life cycle carbon emissions, accounting for 66.2%.
As far as passenger vehicles are concerned, the life cycle carbon emissions in
different scenarios can achieve the target of peaking by 2030, and in the low-carbon
270 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

Fig. 5.36 Changing trend of life cycle carbon emissions in China’s automotive industry

and enhanced low-carbon scenarios, life cycle carbon emissions are close to the target
of achieving net zero emissions before 2060, as shown in Fig. 5.37. In the reference
scenario, the life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will peak in 2028,
with peak carbon emissions of 827 million tons. After peaking, carbon emissions will
continue to decline, but there will still be about 90 million tons of carbon emissions
until 2060, and it is difficult to achieve net zero emission by 2060. In the low-carbon
scenario, the time to peak of life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will
be advanced to 2023, and the peak carbon emissions will be about 770 million tons.
With the increase in the proportion of electrification of passenger vehicles, it is
expected that by 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will
drop to less than 30 million tons. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the peak
carbon emissions are expected to be reached in 2022, and the peak carbon emissions
are about 760 million tons. With the strengthening of various emission reduction
measures, carbon emissions will drop rapidly after reaching the peak, and the life
cycle carbon emissions will drop to less than 30 million tons around 2051. By 2060,
the life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will be 1 million tons or so.
5.2 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Fleets 271

Fig. 5.37 Forecast of life

cycle carbon emission tend
of passenger vehicles in
China

From the perspective of life cycle carbon emission sources, due to the deeper elec-
trification of passenger vehicles, the life cycle carbon emissions have a more obvious
shifting to the vehicle cycle carbon emissions, as shown in Fig. 5.38. Similar to the
overall trend in the automotive industry, the proportion of the fuel cycle of passenger
vehicles in the early stage continues to increase. In the reference scenario, as the
proportion of new energy passenger vehicles continues to increase, the proportion
of vehicle cycle carbon emissions will continue to increase after reaching the lowest
point in 2030. By 2060, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will
account for 40.4% of the life cycle carbon emissions. In the low-carbon scenario,
the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will reach a
minimum value of 22.1% in 2026, and then gradually increase with the increase in
the proportion of new energy passenger vehicles. By 2060, the vehicle cycle carbon
emissions will account for 67.8% of the life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehi-
cles. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon
emissions in the life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will also reach
the lowest point around 2026, and by 2060, the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon
emissions will rise to 79.2% of the life cycle carbon emissions.
Figure 5.39 shows the contribution of all types of fuel in the life cycle, fuel
cycle, and vehicle cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles. In general, the
main sources of the three types of carbon emissions are gradually transitioning from
traditional fuel passenger vehicles to new energy passenger vehicles. The vehicle
cycle transition is faster, and the fuel cycle transition lags behind. In the reference
scenario, traditional fuel passenger vehicles are still the main source of life cycle
carbon emissions of passenger vehicles before 2060. By 2060, the life cycle carbon
emissions of new energy passenger vehicles will account for 50.0% of the total
carbon emissions of passenger vehicles. The fuel cycle carbon emissions are still
dominated by traditional fuel passenger vehicles, and by 2060, the fuel cycle carbon
emissions of new energy passenger vehicles will only account for 16.8% of the total
fuel cycle emissions; from 2032, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of new energy
passenger vehicles will account for more than 50% of the total vehicle cycle carbon
272 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

Fig. 5.38 Changing trend of life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles in China

emissions of passenger vehicles, and by 2060, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of
new energy passenger vehicles will account for more than 99%. In the low-carbon
scenario, the life cycle carbon emissions of new energy passenger vehicles will
dominate the life cycle carbon emissions from 2046, and by 2060, the life cycle
carbon emissions of new energy vehicles will account for 83.1% of the total carbon
emissions; from the perspective of fuel cycle, traditional fuel passenger vehicles will
still dominate the carbon emissions in most of the time in the future. By 2060, the
carbon emissions of new energy passenger vehicles will account for 47.5% of the total
fuel cycle carbon emissions. Affected by the penetration rate of new energy vehicles,
from 2030 onwards, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of new energy passenger
vehicles will exceed the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of traditional fuel passenger
vehicles. From 2050, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of traditional fuel passenger
vehicles will account for less than 1% of the total vehicle cycle carbon emissions.
In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, from 2041, life cycle carbon emissions of new
energy passenger vehicles will account for more than 50% of the life cycle carbon
emissions of passenger vehicles; in terms of fuel cycle, from 2053, new energy
passenger vehicles will become the main emission reduction source, by 2060, due
to the basic elimination of traditional fuel passenger vehicles in the ownership, the
fuel cycle carbon emissions of new energy vehicles will exceed 79.7%; in terms
5.2 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Fleets 273

Fig. 5.39 Proportion of carbon emissions from passenger vehicles of different fuel types

of vehicle cycle, from 2035, the proportion of the fuel cycle carbon emissions of
traditional fuel passenger vehicles will be less than 5%.
Due to the large number of types of commercial vehicles, the forecast results of
the life cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles in different scenarios have
large uncertainty, as shown in Fig. 5.40. Compared with passenger vehicles, since
the ownership of commercial vehicles will maintain a continuous growth trend in the
future, and the potential for electrification of commercial vehicles is limited, it is more
difficult for commercial vehicles to peak the life cycle carbon emissions. Emission
reduction measures other than electrification must compensate for the shortage in
electrification extent. In the reference scenario, the life cycle carbon emissions of
commercial vehicles are expected to enter the peak plateau period in 2030, with peak
carbon emissions of about 560 million tons. By 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions
of commercial vehicles will drop to 420 million tons. In the low-carbon scenario,
the life cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles will start to decline from
2022, and by 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles will drop
to 250 million tons, with a decline of 55.4% compared with those in the reference
scenario. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the life cycle carbon emissions of
274 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

Fig. 5.40 Forecast of life

cycle carbon emission tend
of commercial vehicles in
China

commercial vehicles will also start to decline in 2022, and by 2060, the life cycle
carbon emissions of commercial vehicles will drop to 140 million tons, with a decline
of 66.7% compared with those in the reference scenario.
Compared with passenger vehicles, the life cycle carbon emissions of commer-
cial vehicles in the future will mainly come from the fuel cycle carbon emissions,
as shown in Fig. 5.41. In the reference scenario, with the increase in the ownership
of commercial vehicles, the proportion of fuel cycle carbon emissions of commer-
cial vehicles will remain basically unchanged at around 18%, and will increase
slightly by 2060, reaching 22.0%. In the low-carbon scenario, due to the increase in
the proportion of new energy commercial vehicles, the proportion of vehicle cycle
carbon emissions to the life cycle carbon emissions will increase from 2035, and
the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions will reach 34.6% by 2060. In the
enhanced low-carbon scenario, the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions to
the life cycle carbon emissions will remain within 30% before 2047. By 2060, with
the increase in the proportion of new energy commercial vehicles, the proportion of
vehicle cycle carbon emissions will increase to 64.8%.
As shown in Fig. 5.42, from the perspective of the carbon emission contribu-
tion of commercial vehicles of different fuel types to the life cycle, fuel cycle and
vehicle cycle carbon emissions of the commercial vehicle fleet, diesel vehicles are
the main source of CO2 emissions in the early and medium stages. Since vehicle
cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles are affected by the sales volume
of the current year, and vehicle cycle carbon emissions before 2021 are affected
by the sales volume of battery electric commercial vehicles, and the proportion of
vehicle cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles of different fuel types fluc-
tuate greatly; in the medium and later stages, the main carbon emission source will
transit to hybrid commercial vehicles, and in the later stage, the carbon emissions
generated by new energy commercial vehicles vary depending on the scenarios. In
the reference scenario, the proportions of life cycle carbon emissions and fuel cycle
carbon emissions of new energy commercial vehicles to the total carbon emissions of
the commercial vehicle fleet are basically the same, and the proportion of fuel cycle
5.2 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Fleets 275

Fig. 5.41 Changing trend of life cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles in China

carbon emissions in the life cycle carbon emissions is lower; by 2060, the life cycle
and fuel cycle carbon emissions of new energy commercial vehicles will account for
20.4 and 9.5% of the life cycle and fuel cycle carbon emissions of the commercial
vehicle fleet, respectively. The proportion rises relatively faster. By 2060, the vehicle
cycle carbon emissions of new energy commercial vehicles will account for 59.1%
of the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicle fleet. In the low-carbon
scenario, in terms of life cycle carbon emissions, the proportion of carbon emissions
of new energy vehicles in the later term will increase, and by 2060, the life cycle
carbon emissions of new energy commercial vehicles will account for 33.0% of the
total carbon emissions of the commercial vehicle fleet; from the perspective of fuel
cycle, traditional fuel is also always the main emission source of fuel cycle carbon
emissions of commercial vehicles, and the proportion of fuel cycle carbon emissions
of new energy commercial vehicles increases, but the increase is limited, and by
2060, fuel cycle carbon emissions of new energy commercial vehicles will account
for 12.8% of the total fuel cycle carbon emissions of new energy commercial vehicle
fleet; in terms of vehicle cycle carbon emissions, new energy commercial vehicles
will become the main source of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicle
fleets from 2048, and by 2060, the cycle carbon emissions of new energy commercial
vehicles will account for 71.1%. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, new energy
276 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

commercial vehicles will become the main source of carbon emissions for commer-
cial vehicle fleets in the later stage. In terms of life cycle carbon emissions, the
life cycle carbon emissions of new energy commercial vehicles will exceed those
of traditional fuel commercial vehicles in 2050, and by 2060, the life cycle carbon
emissions of new energy commercial vehicles will account for 76.9% of the life
cycle carbon emissions of the fleets; in terms of fuel cycle carbon emissions, tradi-
tional fuel commercial vehicles still dominate, and the fuel cycle carbon emissions
of new energy commercial vehicles will increase, and by 2060, they will account for
45.2%; in terms of vehicle cycle carbon emissions, vehicle cycle carbon emissions
of new energy commercial vehicles will surpass those of traditional fuel commercial
vehicles in 2040 and become the largest vehicle cycle carbon emission source of the
commercial vehicle fleet, and by 2060, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of new
energy commercial vehicles will account for 94.0% of the total vehicle cycle carbon
emissions of the fleet.

Fig. 5.42 Proportion of carbon emissions from commercial vehicles of different fuel types
5.2 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Fleets 277

5.2.4 Emission Reduction Effect Assessment

In the previous section, based on the CALCM-Fleet model, the trends of life cycle,
fuel cycle and vehicle cycle carbon emissions of the future passenger vehicles and
commercial vehicle in the three scenarios are calculated respectively. In this section,
we will use a step-by-step analysis method to analyze the contribution of different
transition paths to carbon emission reduction in the automotive industry from the
perspective of annual carbon emissions and cumulative carbon emissions, with 2030
and 2060 as the time nodes. There may be coupling effects between emission reduc-
tion measures. For example, the order in which the reduction of the carbon emission
factor of electricity and the electrification of vehicles are applied is different, and the
emission reduction benefits generated by the two measures will vary. In this section,
the number of impact parameters of the emission reduction path is taken as the bench-
mark, and according to the principle of evaluating the path with more impact param-
eters first, and then evaluating the path with less impact parameters, the assessment
is carried out in terms of clean electricity, vehicle electrification, energy efficiency
improvement, fuel decarbonization, low-carbon material, production digitization,
shared mobility, and resource recycling.
In general, as time flies, the emission reduction effect of each emission reduction
path has been improved to a certain extent, as shown in Fig. 5.43. In the refer-
ence scenario, the electrification of vehicles in the future can product the emission
reduction effect to the greatest extent, the emission reduction potential due to the
low-carbon materials does not change much over time, the emission reduction effect
produced by the improvement of vehicle energy efficiency increases over time, and
the emission reduction effect of fuel decarbonization is more obvious in the later
stage. In the low-carbon scenario, vehicle electrification still has the largest emis-
sion reduction potential. In addition, the emission reduction potential due to vehicle
energy efficiency improvement, fuel decarbonization and low-carbon materials has
increased. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, vehicle electrification still has the
largest emission reduction potential. In the later stage, the main emission reduction
potential is reflected in the three transformation paths of vehicle energy efficiency
improvement, fuel decarbonization and low-carbon materials.
According to the accounting results, the life cycle carbon emissions of China’s
automotive industry in 2021 are 1.21 billion tons. If no emission reduction measures
are implemented, the life cycle carbon emissions of the automotive industry will
increase to 1.71 billion tons by 2030. In the reference scenario, the low-carbon
scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the carbon emissions in 2030 will
be 1.37 billion tons, 1.15 billion tons and 1.03 billion tons, respectively, as shown in
Fig. 5.44. In the reference scenario, the measure with the greatest emission reduction
benefits by 2030 is the low-carbon materials, which is expected to be 33% of the emis-
sion reductions, followed by the vehicle electrification, which can account for 29% of
the emission reductions, the emission reductions due to energy efficiency improve-
ment are about 14%, and emission reductions due to shared mobility accounts for
about 11%. The emission reduction benefits of other measures are relatively limited,
278 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

Fig. 5.43 Contributions of emission reduction paths to the life cycle carbon emission reductions
of the automotive industry

and the emission reduction proportion is 10% or less. In this scenario, the emission
factor of traditional fuels does not change with time, and before 2030, there will
be fewer fuel cell electric vehicles, and the emission reduction benefits due to fuel
decarbonization will be around 1%. In the low-carbon scenario, vehicle electrifi-
cation, fuel decarbonization, and low-carbon materials are still the three measures
with the highest emission reduction benefits, with emission reduction proportions
of 24, 22 and 25%, respectively. The carbon emission factor decreases over time,
and the emission reductions due to fuel decarbonization increase significantly. In the
enhanced low-carbon scenario, the emission reductions due to vehicle electrification
accounts for 29%, the emission reduction due to using low-carbon materials remains
5.2 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Fleets 279

Fig. 5.44 Contributions of emission reduction paths to the life cycle carbon emission reductions
of the automotive industry in 2030

at around 22%, and the emission reduction benefits of fuel decarbonization account
for 17%.
In the long run, if no emission reduction measures are taken, the total carbon
emissions in China’s automotive industry will rise to 2.22 billion tons by 2060, and the
emission reduction effects of different emission reduction paths may vary, as shown in
Fig. 5.45. In the reference scenario, it is expected that the life cycle carbon emissions
of the automotive industry will drop to 510 million tons by 2060. In this scenario,
vehicle electrification contributes to the carbon emission reduction to the largest
extent, accounting for 26% of the total emission reductions. In addition, the vehicle
energy efficiency improvement will contribute 22% of carbon emission reduction
benefits. Compared with 2030, the contribution of fuel decarbonization to emission
reductions will increase to 18%, and the low-carbon materials will contribute 16%
of carbon emission reductions. In the low-carbon scenario, fuel decarbonization
contributes to the carbon emission reduction to the largest extent, accounting for
27%, followed by vehicle electrification, energy efficiency improvement, and low-
carbon material, with emission reduction rates of 24, 21 and 15%, respectively.
In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the emission reduction contributions of fuel
decarbonization and energy efficiency improvement have increased 35 and 26%,
respectively, the emission reduction contribution of low-carbon material remains at
15%, and the emission reduction contribution of vehicle electrification drops to 13%.
280 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

Fig. 5.45 Contributions of emission reduction paths to the life cycle carbon emission reductions
of the automotive industry in 2060

Due to the cumulative effect of greenhouse gases, cumulative carbon emissions

are another indicator to measure the effect of emissions reductions in the automotive
industry. In the short term, if no emission reduction measures are taken, the cumu-
lative life cycle carbon emissions of the automotive industry will reach 16.1 billion
tons by 2030 with 2020 taken as the base year. In different scenarios, the largest
contributors to cumulative carbon emission reductions are mainly low-carbon mate-
rials and vehicle electrification, as shown in Fig. 5.46. In the reference scenario, the
cumulative carbon emissions by 2030 will be 14.6 billion tons, and the cumulative
carbon emission reductions will reach 1.5 billion tons, of which the carbon emis-
sion reductions due to the low-carbon materials will account for 44%, the carbon
emissions due to vehicle electrification will account for 22%, and the emission reduc-
tions due to vehicle energy efficiency improvement will account for about 12%. In
the low-carbon scenario, the cumulative carbon emissions will drop to 13.6 billion
tons by 2030, down 6.8% compared with those in the reference scenario, of which
the carbon emission reductions due to low-carbon materials and fuel decarboniza-
tion will account for 33 and 23% of the total emission reductions respectively, and
the emission reductions due to vehicle electrification will account for 17%. In the
enhanced low-carbon scenario, the cumulative carbon emissions will drop to 13
5.2 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Fleets 281

billion tons by 2030, down 11.0% compared with those in the reference scenario,
and the cumulative carbon emission reduction due to low-carbon materials and fuel
decarbonization will account for 30 and 18%, respectively. In addition, carbon emis-
sion reduction due to vehicle electrification and clean grid will account for 21 and
10%, respectively. In the long run, by 2060, if no emission reduction measures are
taken, the cumulative life cycle carbon emissions of vehicles will reach 77 billion
tons. In different scenarios, vehicle electrification has the greatest emission reduc-
tion benefits, followed by low-carbon materials, energy efficiency improvement and
fuel decarbonization. The carbon emission reduction benefits generated by these
four paths account for more than 50% of the cumulative carbon emission reduc-
tions. In the reference scenario, the cumulative carbon emissions will drop to 42.2
billion tons by 2060, and the cumulative emission reductions will reach 34.8 billion
tons, of which vehicle electrification will contribute 35% of the emission reduc-
tions, and low-carbon materials and energy efficiency improvement will respectively
contribute 19 and 17% of emission reductions. In the low-carbon scenario, the cumu-
lative carbon emissions will drop to 32.9 billion tons by 2060, and the cumulative
emission reductions will reach 44.1 billion tons, an increase of 26.7% compared with
those in the reference scenario, of which 31% will be contributed by vehicle electri-
fication. The contributions of low-carbon materials, the fuel decarbonization and the
energy efficiency improvement will account for 17, 20 and 16%, respectively. In the
enhanced low-carbon scenario, the cumulative carbon emissions by 2060 will drop
to 26.8 billion tons, and the cumulative carbon emission reductions will reach 50.2
billion tons, an increase of 44.2% compared with those in the reference scenario,
in which carbon emissions due to vehicle electrification, energy efficiency improve-
ment, fuel decarbonization and low-carbon materials will account for 27, 17, 24
and16%, respectively.
From the perspective of cumulative carbon emissions, by 2060, the cumula-
tive carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will generally be higher than those of
commercial vehicles. If no emission reduction measures are taken, the cumulative
carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will reach 43.4 billion tons, and the cumula-
tive carbon emissions of commercial vehicles will reach 33.6 billion tons. Different
emission reduction paths have different emission reduction effects for passenger
vehicles and commercial vehicles, as shown in Fig. 5.46. For passenger vehicle
fleets, vehicle electrification creates the emission reduction benefits to the largest
extent, far exceeding the emission reduction contribution of other measures. The
main reason is that in the future, passenger vehicles will be dominated by battery
electric passenger vehicles. Under the background of clean electricity, the transfor-
mation of passenger vehicles to battery electric passenger vehicles can greatly reduce
the total carbon emissions of passenger vehicles. In the reference scenario, by 2060,
the cumulative carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will drop to 20.6 billion tons,
and the cumulative emission reductions will reach 22.8 billion tons, of which the
emission reductions due to vehicle electrification will reach 47%, followed by emis-
sion reductions due to low-carbon materials, accounting for about 17%. In addition,
the emission reductions due to shared mobility and energy efficiency improvement
will account for 13 and 9%, respectively. In the low-carbon scenario, the cumulative
282 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

Fig. 5.46 Contributions of emission reduction paths to the cumulative CO2 emission reductions of
the automotive industry

carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will drop to 15.6 billion tons by 2060, and
the cumulative emission reductions will reach 27.8 billion tons, an increase of 21.9%
compared with those in the reference scenario. The carbon emission reduction rates
due to vehicle electrification and low-carbon materials will be 48 and 15%, and the
emission reduction rate due to other emission reduction paths will be 10% or less.
In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the cumulative life cycle carbon emissions of
5.2 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Fleets 283

Fig. 5.47 Contributions of emission reduction paths to the CO2 emission reductions of the
passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle fleets in 2060

the passenger vehicle fleet will further drop to 12.3 billion tons, and the cumula-
tive carbon emission reductions will reach 31.1 billion tons, an increase of 51.0%
compared with those in the reference scenario. The carbon emission reduction rate
due to vehicle electrification has further increased, accounting for 49.0%, followed by
the carbon emission reduction rate due to low-carbon materials, accounting for 14%,
and the carbon emission reduction rate due to other paths is less than 10%. Compared
with passenger vehicles, contributions of different emission reduction measures to
the emission reductions of commercial vehicles may vary. Since the life cycle carbon
emissions of commercial vehicles are mainly from medium and heavy-duty trucks,
284 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive …

which are limited by vehicle usage, the electrification path of medium and heavy-duty
commercial vehicles is mainly applied for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Therefore, the
cumulative carbon emissions of commercial vehicle fleets are more affected by the
fuel cycle related measures. By 2060, if no emission reduction measures are taken,
the cumulative carbon emissions of commercial vehicles will reach 33.6 billion tons.
In the reference scenario, the cumulative life cycle carbon emissions of commercial
vehicles will drop to 21.5 billion tons, and the cumulative carbon emission reductions
will reach 12.1 billion tons, of which the cumulative carbon emission reductions due
to vehicle energy efficiency improvement will reach 33%, the cumulative carbon
emission reductions due to low-carbon materials will reach 22%, and the cumula-
tive carbon emission reductions due to vehicle electrification will only be 4%. In the
low-carbon scenario, the cumulative carbon emissions of the commercial vehicle fleet
will drop to 17.2 billion tons, and the cumulative emission reductions will reach 16.6
billion tons, an increase of 37.2% compared with those in the reference scenario, of
which the cumulative carbon emission reductions due to energy efficiency improve-
ment and low-carbon materials will reach 69%, and cumulative carbon emission
reductions due to low-carbon materials will reach 20%. In the enhanced low-carbon
scenario, the cumulative life cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles will
drop to 14.5 billion tons, and the cumulative emission reductions will reach 19.1
billion tons, an increase of 57.9% compared with those in the reference scenario,
of which the cumulative carbon emission reductions due to vehicle electrification
before the energy efficiency improvement and fuel decarbonization measures are
taken will reach 8%, and cumulative carbon emission reductions due to energy effi-
ciency improvement and fuel decarbonization can reach 27 and 54%, respectively.
In addition, cumulative carbon emission reductions due to low-carbon materials can
reach 19%. Compared with the total carbon emissions of passenger vehicles, since the
proportion of carbon emissions caused by vehicle production is small, the emission
reductions of digital production in different scenarios are all close to 0%.

5.2.5 Summary

It can be seen from the above analysis that there is a lot of room for growth of
China’s automobile ownership in the future. If the carbon emissions are not effectively
controlled, the carbon emissions from the automotive industry will increase rapidly,
thus affecting the achievement of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.
This section designs three emission reduction scenarios based on ten transformation
paths: reference scenario, low-carbon scenario, and enchanted low-carbon scenario,
and analyzes the future carbon emission trend of the automotive industry based on
the CALCM-Fleet model. The results show that the carbon emissions in the future
automotive industry can reach the peak of life cycle carbon emissions before 2030,
which is in the range of 1.28–1.37 billion tons of CO2 e. In the long run, there is
5.2 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Fleets 285

still some pressure to achieve net zero emission before 2060. It is necessary to take
emission reduction measures in the whole life cycle and promote the coordinated
transformation of different paths. For passenger vehicles, vehicle electrification can
provide the greatest emission reduction benefits and is an effective way to reduce
life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles. For commercial vehicles, the
pressure on carbon emission reduction in the future mainly lies in the fuel cycle
carbon emissions of the vehicles. The energy efficiency improvement and the fuel
decarbonization are important measures to achieve carbon emission reduction of
commercial vehicles.
Chapter 6
Opportunities for the Automotive
Industry Under the Carbon Peak
and Carbon Neutrality Goals

6.1 More Attention to Be Paid to Domestic Carbon

Emission Management

In 2021, China’s automobile production and sales still rank first in the world, with
steady growth in various data and rapid growth of new energy vehicles. Under the
background of the steady recovery of the national economy and the accelerated
recovery of consumer demand, the automotive industry has sufficient consumption
potential. In terms of international trade, the export of automobiles has started a
rapid growth trend. The total export volume has doubled compared with 2020. The
export volume of new energy vehicles has grown rapidly. Automobile products are
becoming important end products of the domestic-international dual circulation of
China’s economy.
In parallel with the rapid development of the industry, the carbon emissions of
China’s automotive industry are increasing year by year. After China solemnly
announced the “30·60” carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals in 2020, how to
manage carbon emissions has become an important topic in government governance
and enterprise development. In recent years, the proportion of CO2 emissions in the
automotive industry to the national emissions has been rising with the rapid develop-
ment of the industry. With the development of new energy in the automotive industry,
the focus of automobile carbon emissions is gradually changing, showing the charac-
teristics of shifting from the use of automobile products to the entire industrial chain.
The proportion of fuel cycle carbon emissions in the life cycle of a vehicle decreases
year by year, the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions is in remorseless rise,
and carbon management in the production and manufacturing of vehicle and part
materials plays a more important role.
At present, the carbon emission management system and carbon reduction goal
of China’s automotive industry already exist in embryo. In the Technology Roadmap
for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles 2.0, it is mentioned that the total carbon
emissions of China’s automotive industry should peak before the committed national

© China Machine Press 2023 287

Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd. et al.,
China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022),
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7502-8_6
288 6 Opportunities for the Automotive Industry Under the Carbon Peak …

carbon emission reductions, and total emissions will drop by more than 20% by 2035
[1]. In terms of specific management measures, at present, China’s emission stan-
dards and policies for automobiles pay focus on the coordinated governance of fuel
consumption and pollutant management at the level of automobile products, which
can coordinate CO2 emission control to a certain extent. and management policies
for CO2 and other greenhouse gases will soon come into being. At the production
level of the enterprise, the management connection between the automobile product
level and the enterprise level is not sufficient, and the carbon management path from
the perspective of the whole life cycle requires further research. At present, policies
and regulations concerning China’s enterprise greenhouse gas accounting standards
and carbon market management are moving closer to the entire automotive industrial
chain, and automotive enterprises’ greenhouse gas may be included in key manage-
ment subjects. At the current stage, the focus of industry management is still on the
link of product use, and it is gradually extended to links such as supply, production,
dismantling, and scrapping. The carbon emission management of China’s automotive
industry is characterized by complexity and diversification. There is a lot of devel-
opment space in various aspects such as coverage, reference standards, management
measures, and data collection.

6.1.1 Existing Carbon Emission Management Policies to Be

Perfected

At present, the management of carbon emissions in China’s automotive industry is

mainly based on the energy consumption and air pollutant management system of
motor vehicles. The carbon emission management policies from the perspective of
automobile road use and the whole life cycle are still under research. The existing
management policies have not yet fully covered the carbon dioxide emission control
of automobiles. Compared with the international advanced level, China’s carbon
emission management policies still need to be perfected.
The life cycle carbon emission management of the automotive industry has
become the mainstream trend. Internationally, developed countries such as Europe
and the United States have long-term plans and relatively well-developed standards
and measures for the management of carbon emissions in the automotive industry.
Since the European Union proposed a mandatory regulatory policy for carbon emis-
sion indicators in 2007, it has issued Regulation (EC) 443/2009 CO2 Emission
Performance Standards for Passenger Cars and Light-duty Commercial Vehicles
and continuously updated it. More carbon emission regulations are being developed
by taking two dimensions of entire life cycle perspective and real use link monitoring
into consideration. The carbon emissions of the automotive industry has become an
indispensable part of the EU green regulation system, and is changing from a single
control to a multi-link, full-cycle control.
6.1 More Attention to Be Paid to Domestic Carbon Emission Management 289

The management effect of existing policies in the road use stage tends to be
saturated. According to the calculation of the CATARC-ADC, since 2012, the
increasing of passenger vehicle ownership has led to a continuous increase in the
energy consumption, pollutant emissions and carbon emissions of the passenger
vehicle fleets in the road use stage, while the energy consumption, pollutant emis-
sions and carbon emissions of a vehicle have shown a year-on-year decrease. The
main reason for this is that the management policies for energy consumption and
pollutants are constantly strict. Limits of Fuel Consumption for Passenger Cars
and Measures for the Parallel Administration of the Average Fuel Consumption
and New Energy Vehicle Credits of Passenger Vehicle Enterprises issued in 2016
and 2017 put forward new requirements for energy consumption, and in the Limits
and Measurement Methods for Emissions from Light-duty Vehicles issued in 2016
and 2020 requirements for energy consumption have been continuously upgraded.
However, as shown in Figs. 6.1, 6.2 and 6.3, under the circumstance that the policy
control has been continuously strengthened and the emission reduction goal setting
has gradually come the bottleneck stage based on the existing technologies, the
induced decline has begun to gradually slow down, the management effect tends
to be saturated, and the marginal cost of enterprise implementation increases year
by year. If it is necessary to further control the carbon emissions of the automotive
industry, the trend is towards shifting the focus of management to the life cycle [2].
Existing policies have some limitations on the management of life cycle carbon
emissions of automobiles. As shown in Fig. 6.4, from 2012 to 2021, the total life
cycle energy consumption of China’s passenger vehicle fleets increases year by year,
while the life cycle energy consumption of a single vehicle decreases year by year.
In the life cycle energy consumption, since fuel vehicles still occupy the majority
of the current passenger vehicle ownership, the energy consumption in fuel use
stage always accounts for the largest proportion of total energy consumption; the
proportion of energy consumption in the material production stage to the total energy
consumption is also rising slightly. Life cycle carbon emissions and life cycle energy

Fig. 6.1 Total carbon emissions of passenger vehicles in the use stage from 2012 to 2021
290 6 Opportunities for the Automotive Industry Under the Carbon Peak …

Fig. 6.2 Total energy consumption of passenger vehicles in the use stage in from 2012 to 2021

Fig. 6.3 Total amount of pollutants of passenger vehicles in the use stage from 2012 to 2019

consumption show similar changes. The total carbon emissions of the fleet continues
to increase, and the carbon emissions of a single vehicle decrease year by year, and
the carbon emissions in the fuel use stage accounts for the largest proportion of total
carbon emissions. That is to say, the synergy degree between energy consumption
and pollutant management in the whole life cycle is also available.
However, judging from the research on the synergy between pollutants and carbon
emission management, pollutant emissions show no uniform trend. More than half
of the pollutants are generated in the production stage of materials, such as thermal
power emissions from upstream production of aluminum alloys, or emissions from
reduction of iron ore, etc., the control of product pollutants is not an effective measure
for management in this stage. CO2 emissions in the material production process also
account for the majority of life cycle carbon emissions.
6.1 More Attention to Be Paid to Domestic Carbon Emission Management 291

Fig. 6.4 Life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicle fleets from 2012 to 2021

On the whole, as the CO2 emissions during the use of products gradually decrease,
the carbon emissions management under the existing policies will gradually be weak-
ened in the electrification context. In this context, how to effectively control the
upstream carbon emissions of products is the primary problem and challenge to be
solved urgently in the carbon management of the automotive industry.

6.1.2 Speeding Up Construction of Carbon Emission

Standard System

The cornerstone of establishing a management policy system related to the low-

carbon transformation of the automotive industry is to complete the formulation of
relevant technical specifications or standards. At present, the special carbon emis-
sion management standards at the product level are under research. The standard
system with fuel consumption and pollutants as the monitoring objects can achieve a
coordinative management effect on carbon emissions to a certain extent, but it plays
a limited role in carbon emission management of the automotive industry. At the
enterprise level, China has issued 3 batches of CO2 accounting standards for a total
of 24 industries, taking the enterprise-level carbon emissions of various industries as
the accounting object, but there is still a long way to go before the standard system
covers the entire automotive industrial chain; from the perspective of the whole life
cycle, it is urgent to introduce a leading carbon footprint standard that can integrate
the whole process of product production and use.
In the existing system, some domestic institutions, enterprises and competent
authorities have already begun the carbon footprint verification and accounting,
292 6 Opportunities for the Automotive Industry Under the Carbon Peak …

during which two main problems are concerned [3]. The first is that the govern-
ment, industry institutions, and enterprises “have no standards to follow” during
carbon emission management. A series of problems have arisen when enterprises
improve their carbon emission management capabilities and formulate reasonable
carbon emission action plans due to the blurred standardized and efficient carbon
emission accounting system and data management system, which results in the
emergence of some “campaign-style carbon reduction” measures. The accounting
methods and models developed or purchased by enterprises lead to the vagueness
of the objects, scope, boundaries, measurement accuracy and data sources of carbon
footprint accounting, and the carbon footprint accounting results of the same type of
products are quite different, which increases the workload of data demanders. The
second is that the automotive industry has the characteristics of a long industrial
chain and a wide range of influence. In addition to the carbon emissions of automo-
bile fuel, it is difficult to report the data of CO2 emissions from the production, loss,
recycling and dismantling of raw materials and parts for statistics and accounting.
Therefore, carbon emission management in the entire industrial chain first requires
to establish an accounting standard that can support the industry in carbon emission
management.
In contrast to the domestic standard system and management system that have
made a start, foreign developed countries have accumulated relatively rich experience
in the formulation of automobile carbon emission regulations. In 2017, the United
States issued and implemented new light-duty vehicle GHG emission and CAFE stan-
dards concerning greenhouse gas emission and fuel economy control for automobile
products. As early as 2007, the European Union formally proposed to implement a
mandatory regulatory policy based on carbon emission indicators. In 2009, led by
the European Commission, with the full participation of all member states, Regula-
tion (EC) 443/2009 was issued. This policy takes automobile enterprises as the main
body of responsibility, and takes the CO2 emission per kilometer of automobile prod-
ucts as the core indicator for comprehensive assessment of automobile enterprises.
Since then, the EU’s emission regulations have been continuously improved and
updated, and carbon emission requirements have been continuously tightened. The
latest Regulation (EU) 2019/631 was updated by 2019, which proposes the latest
road driving emission target of 95 g/km and the possibility of establishing a full life
cycle assessment methodology by 2023. The EU announced that the standard speci-
fication for life cycle carbon emissions of automobile products would be formulated
not later than 2023.
The market mechanism-based measures taken by developed countries to deal with
climate change are changing to legal regulation-based measures, and rules concerning
climate change are being rewritten. At present, countries and regions such as the
European Union, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Denmark, New Zealand, Hungary,
Spain, Chile, Japan and South Korea have set carbon neutrality goals for 2050.
Many countries are actively promoting laws and regulations on the carbon intensity
of products, planning to gain a competitive advantage through high environmental
standards.
6.1 More Attention to Be Paid to Domestic Carbon Emission Management 293

Carbon emission accounting technical standards are one of the most concerned
topics for product carbon emission quantification. In terms of the automobile carbon
footprint standard system, the carbon footprint of automobile products should be
taken as the basic entry point to gradually establish a life cycle carbon emission
standard system including automobiles, materials, parts, batteries, hydrogen fuel,
hydrogen fuel cells, recycled materials, etc., which is not only the support for
the relevant government departments to carry out carbon emission management in
the automotive industrial chain, but also the theoretical basis for the automotive
industry enterprises to carry out the capacity building of life cycle carbon emission
management [4].

6.1.3 Supply Chain Carbon Data Integrity to Be Improved

The automotive industry is both a low-carbon demand side and a supply side, and the
construction of a carbon emission accounting system is relatively complex, which
requires enterprises to take actions to unify the carbon emission data at all stages
of the industrial chain and establish a relatively comprehensive basic database to
support the accounting system.
The basic database of carbon emissions in China is still a work in progress. At
present, there are few site-specific data on carbon emissions in China’s automotive
industrial chain. Carbon emissions accounting is mainly based on the average values
of data reported by industries or the data calculated by domestic and foreign scientific
research institutes and universities. The resulted results cannot accurately reflect the
carbon emission levels of enterprises and their products. Indirectly, it has led to
the increase in the difficulty of product low-carbon quantification and publicity. In
terms of international trade competition, the western developed countries take the
lead in carbon emission disclosure power for a long time. The estimated carbon
emission factors in China has always been high, which is inconsistent with China’s
existing energy development status, making low-carbon competitiveness of China’s
export products lower than that of local products. The establishment of a carbon data
system is a prerequisite for the quantification of product carbon reduction results,
the popularization of carbon reduction benefits, and the participation in low-carbon
competition.
The complexity of data accounting for all links of the supply chain is relatively
high. The automotive industrial chain is large in scale and high in complexity, and
it is related to more than 150 industries. A large amount of CO2 emissions may be
generated in all links of the life cycle, such as raw material production, transportation,
vehicle production, use and scrapping. The accounting involves many processes,
and the carbon emission accounting of products provided by different enterprises
has differences in data statistical caliber, accounting boundaries and methods. For
294 6 Opportunities for the Automotive Industry Under the Carbon Peak …

downstream enterprises, especially OEMs, it is a major task to standardize the step-

by-step collection of carbon emission information and ensure the integrity, accuracy
and timeliness of the data [5].
A unified and consistent life cycle carbon footprint industry database has become
an immediate demand. It is a reality faced by the industry to carry out acquisition,
storage, mining and analysis of sharable carbon footprint data in the industry to
provide a scientific and accurate data basis for the entire industry carbon footprint
assessment.

6.1.4 Information Disclosure Mechanism in Further

Progress

The disclosure of environmental information and carbon information has become one
of the international hotspots in the industry, and various stakeholders have increas-
ingly stringent requirements for enterprise information disclosure. After completing
the data collection in the industrial chain, enterprises also need to consider how
to build an information disclosure system to cope with the supervision of various
stakeholders.
Research shows that the environmental information disclosure of most of China’s
automobile enterprises is still in its infancy, and the topic of concern is still focused
on the pollutant emissions of the boundary. In recent years, it has only been extended
to carbon management and the entire industrial chain, and the transparency of
sustainable development information in all links of the supply chain requires further
improvement. Research shows that about half of the enterprises in the industry can
disclose key content such as energy and resource consumption, life cycle carbon
emissions, and green supply chains. Although some enterprises have raised green
development to an important strategy, the information integrity in different links still
needs to be improved, and there is a phenomenon of “doing but not speaking”.
In terms of product carbon emission information management, research shows that
the government-led disclosure of carbon emission information of automobile prod-
ucts has become an international management measure. Developed countries have
relevant regulations to guide the disclosure, such as the United States regulations
concerning carbon dioxide emissions of light-duty vehicles, the EU’s regulations
concerning carbon dioxide emissions of passenger vehicles and light-duty commer-
cial vehicles, and Germany’s regulations concerning energy consumption labeling of
passenger vehicles. The items of disclosure includes vehicle model, fuel type, carbon
emissions under different test conditions, fuel consumption and power consumption,
etc. Some countries also classify emission reduction and environmental protection
for models based on emissions, and increase the market share of products with high
environmental protection class using relevant tools and disclosure means.
6.2 Challenges and Opportunities Coexisting in International Competition 295

The life cycle carbon emission management of automobile products has become
a development trend, and the clamor for the life cycle carbon emission management
of automobile products by the international community is increasingly high. The
assessment for life cycle management in the carbon emission standards for American
automobile products has been started. The European Union has clarified the time
nodes of life cycle carbon emission management, and has started to upgrade the
current carbon management and control measures of vehicles. The issued drafts of
EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and Regulation Concerning Batteries
and Waste Batteries have put forward restrictions on the carbon footprint of raw
materials of automobile products such as electric power, steel and aluminum and
batteries, and it is possible to further expand the scope of carbon emission control in
the future.

6.2 Challenges and Opportunities Coexisting

in International Competition

As shown in Fig. 6.5, with the increasing demand for new energy vehicles in
foreign markets, especially the European market, China’s automotive industry can
get more and more development opportunities internationally. However, since in the
process of China’s products participating in the external circulation of the world
economy, the policies and regulations of developed countries on carbon emissions
have been continuously tightened, China’s automobile enterprises are facing low-
carbon challenges in participating in international competition, and also facing oppor-
tunities to establish their own carbon emission disclosure power and lead the green
transformation of the industry.
In December 2019, the European Union issued the European Green Deal,
proposing the goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050. In order to cooperate with
the implementation of the European Green Deal, the European Union has succes-
sively issued a combination of policies such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment

Fig. 6.5 Export trend of China’s automotive industry from 2017 to 2021
296 6 Opportunities for the Automotive Industry Under the Carbon Peak …

Fig. 6.6 Review of the strategic relationship related to automobiles in the EU carbon emission
policies

Mechanism, the Regulation Concerning Batteries and Waste Batteries, and the Direc-
tive on Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence, as shown in Fig. 6.6. The European
Union takes the strengthening of carbon emission control as the main line, compre-
hensively use various means such as taxation and legislation, “reasonably” set up
policy obstacles to form invisible trade barriers to the export of China’s automo-
bile products. In the new stage of large-scale development of China’s automobiles,
especially when the technological level of new energy vehicles is internationally
leading, the European Union is the most important overseas market. It has become an
important task that the industry has reached consensus on to strengthen the tracking,
research and judgment of relevant policies, promote internal and external efforts,
accelerate the establishment of China’s carbon emission policy system, promote
collaborative emission reduction in the industrial chain, actively broaden the princi-
pled consensus of “common but differentiated responsibilities”, identify challenges
ahead of time, study countermeasures, buy a time window, and better promote the
“going out” of the industry.

6.2.1 Tighter Carbon Footprint Limits for Automobile

Products and Key Parts

In terms of product import from outside the EU, the EU is restricting the export
of China’s automobile products and key parts to the international market by setting
limits on product carbon footprints and the amount of recycled materials, requiring
due diligence and setting other binding indicators [6].
6.2 Challenges and Opportunities Coexisting in International Competition 297

Product carbon footprint will become a barrier to entry for international trade.
On March 10, 2022, the draft of the Regulation Concerning Batteries and Waste
Batteries was voted on in the “First Reading” of the European Parliament, and has
now been admitted to the “First Reading” procedure of the European Council. The
draft makes a series of requirements on the carbon footprint of batteries, carbon
footprint performance class, and carbon footprint limits. In the version accepted by
the European Parliament, the relevant requirements are further tightened. As shown
in Table 6.1, from July 2024, batteries exported to the EU should be affixed with
battery carbon footprint labels, and the attached technical documentation should
include a carbon footprint statement determined according to the delegated acts;
from July 2025, batteries should be affixed with labels indicating the carbon footprint
performance class, and a carbon footprint performance class statement should be
made in the technical documents; from January 2027, the carbon footprint limit
management of products will begin, and a demonstration that the life cycle carbon
footprint value is below the maximum limit set by the acts should be made in the
attached technical documentation of batteries. According to the calculation of the
CATARC-ADC, the carbon footprint of China’s batteries is more than 30% higher
than the average level of the EU batteries. According to the existing development
trend, it is predicted that China’s batteries will exceed the maximum limit of battery
carbon footprint stipulated in the draft of the new regulation concerning batteries.
The use of recycled materials creates new requirements for product production.
The Regulation Concerning Batteries and Waste Batteries sets mandatory require-
ments for the recovery rate and recycling rate of materials such as cobalt, lead,
lithium, nickel and other materials for industrial batteries, electric vehicle batteries
and automobile batteries, and requires that from January 1, 2027, industrial batteries,
electric vehicle batteries and automobile batteries should be attached with technical
documentation. For industrial batteries and electric vehicle batteries with a capacity
of more than 2 kWh, environmental due diligence is also required for raw materials
such as nickel, cobalt, lithium, and lead. In the version passed by the European Parlia-
ment, the time requirement for the declaration of the content of recycled materials

Table 6.1 EU market battery carbon footprint requirements

Date Control requirements
From 1 July 2024 A carbon footprint statement drafted under the delegated acts shall be
included in the attached technical documentation
From 1 July 2025 The carbon footprint performance class statement should be made and a
label indicating the battery carbon footprint performance class should be
attached, and a statement that the stated carbon footprint and class are
calculated in accordance with the delegated acts formulated by the
commission should be provided in the technical documentation
From 1 January 2027 It should be demonstrated in the attached technical documentation that
the life cycle carbon footprint value is below the limit set by the acts
298 6 Opportunities for the Automotive Industry Under the Carbon Peak …

has been advanced, the product scope for due diligence is required to be expanded
to all batteries, and to some raw materials such as steel, copper, bauxite, etc. This
requires China to start materials recycling and reuse for batteries as early as possible,
and to study new low-carbon production paths and recycling technologies.
Enterprises need to carry out the due diligence in the supply chain. On February
23, 2022, the European Commission published A Proposal for a Directive on Corpo-
rate Sustainability Due Diligence. The proposal requires EU enterprises and third-
country enterprises above a certain scale to implement mandatory human rights and
environmental due diligence obligations, including biodiversity, hazardous waste,
hazardous chemicals, mercury waste, etc., and climate change when necessary, and
requires enterprises to carry out supply chain investigations to identify, monitor,
prevent, mitigate and eliminate potential or actual adverse impacts on human rights
and environment in the business activities of the enterprise itself, its affiliated entities,
and entities with which the enterprise has established business relationships and are
in the enterprise’s value chain, and to submit a third-party certification report.

6.2.2 Gradual Rise in Compliance Costs of Automobile

Products and Parts

The continuous introduction of international carbon emission policies will increase

the direct and indirect costs of China’s export of automobile products and key parts.
In terms of direct costs, on July 14, 2021, the European Commission formally
proposed a proposal for the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mech-
anism (CBAM) to include imported goods into the European Union Emission Trading
Scheme (EU-ETS), so that the imported goods should bear the same carbon emission
costs as local products as they must the pass the verification of the carbon emissions
and the exporting enterprises should purchase the “Carbon Border Adjustment Mech-
anism Certificate”. The implementation of CBAM is carried out in two stages, namely
the transition period from 2023 to 2025 and the formal implementation period after
2026. During the transition period, it only covers the direct carbon emissions of some
energy, raw materials and their direct finished products in the 5 industries of steel,
aluminum, cement, fertilizer and power, and no relevant fees are charged, but a report
on the carbon emissions of the products should be provided to the EU. The policy
will be officially implemented from 2026, and the implementation of the policy will
be assessed before the end of the transition period, and a decision will be made on
whether to expand the scope when it is officially implemented. On December 21,
2021, the European Parliament issued a revised draft of the carbon border adjustment
mechanism, which further tightened the requirements. The implementation date was
advanced to 2025, and organic chemicals, hydrogen, plastics and their products were
added to the product range.
6.2 Challenges and Opportunities Coexisting in International Competition 299

The accounting scope of CBAM includes the carbon emissions of the goods and
the production process of upstream raw materials. This mechanism requires importers
to provide actual monitoring data, which will be certified by the EU designated
agency; if the actual monitoring data is not available or has not passed the certification,
the emission intensity of the goods will be certified as the average emission intensity
of 10% similar goods that have the highest emission level. In terms of price, it is
linked to the EU-ETS, and the average settlement price of carbon allowance auctions
within a complete calendar week is regarded as the approved price. In order to avoid
repeated collection of carbon emission fees, if it can be proved that the goods have
paid the carbon emission fees in the exporting country, the importer can deduct the
corresponding part from it [7].
Under the management of this policy, high carbon tax needs to be paid for the
export of Chinese products to the EU. When the CBAM covers downstream products,
enterprises need to pay about 400–1000 EUR (fluctuates with EU-ETS carbon price)
for the primary materials contained in each vehicle.
In terms of indirect costs, exporting enterprises will increase the costs of trans-
formation of production links and the management costs of clean production in the
supply chain due to the required carbon footprint limits, in order to meet the carbon
footprint limit requirements stipulated in the EU carbon emission policy. Upgrading
and transformation indirectly increases the costs of product production. In addition,
enterprises must conduct accounting and certification recognized by the EU before
exporting products, resulting in additional compliance costs.

6.2.3 Necessary to Establish an Independent Carbon

Footprint Disclosure Power of China’s Automobile
Products

International developed countries have carried out detailed and in-depth research on
carbon footprint technologies and carbon footprint indicators. Taking the European
Union as an example, it has created a management system covering the whole process
of carbon footprint standards, databases, accounting tools, certification marks, etc. at
different levels such as management policies, member countries and affiliated enter-
prises, and has the intention of gradually expanding and extending this system through
global trade. In contrast, all aspects of carbon footprint management in China’s auto-
motive industry are in their infancy, and low-carbon competitive advantages need to
be clarified. Getting an independent and powerful low-carbon disclosure power in
the international market.
300 6 Opportunities for the Automotive Industry Under the Carbon Peak …

The carbon border adjustment mechanism is another product carbon emission

management system that has received a broad international consensus. The European
Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and many other countries
or regions are actively promoting research and formulation of their own carbon
border adjustment mechanisms. The necessary condition for China’s products to
achieve continuous export and participate in the external economic cycle is to adopt
internationally accepted low-carbon standards, technologies or products, which puts
forward more stringent requirements for the green development and transformation
of China’s automotive industry [8].
International automobile enterprises with leading low-carbon technologies and a
large domestic market share begin to gradually export carbon emission standards to
China’s automotive industrial chain based on their industrial scale, requiring enter-
prises in all links of China’s automotive industrial chain to submit carbon emission
data reports and report emission reduction indicators. BMW, for example, requires
its battery supplier to power battery production with 100% renewable energy, and
Volkswagen says renewable power is a prerequisite for awarding contracts to produce
high-voltage batteries.
In order to respond to international carbon emission policies and improve green
and low-carbon competitiveness, Chinese enterprises are taking a series of measures
to enhance the autonomy of carbon emission disclosure power. However, due to the
energy structure and the domestic green power supply, low-carbon product devel-
opment and other factors in the industrial chain, enhancement of the autonomy of
carbon footprint discourse power requires long-term efforts.
Overall, China’s automotive industry faces the multi-faceted challenges in the
international carbon footprint competition, but the international challenges also
signal the way for the green and low-carbon transformation of independent brands
and provide opportunity of shortcuts to make swift progress. China should quickly
start with the standard system, data management, green resources, etc., to enhance
its own right to speak on carbon emissions.

References

1. China Society of Automotive Engineers (2020) Technology roadmap for energy saving and new
energy vehicles 2.0. China Machine Press, Beijing
2. Gan Y, Wang M, Lu Z et al (2021) Taking into account greenhouse gas emissions of electric
vehicles for transportation de-carbonization. Ener Policy 115:112353
3. Tongzhu Z, Nan W (2021) Discussion on the standard system for carbon neutrality in the
automotive industry. Automob Parts 17:58–61
4. Li F, Zhao S, Hu Y (2021) Development trend of European new energy vehicle industry and its
enlightenment to China. Chin J Autom Eng 11(03):157–163
5. China Automotive Technology & Research Center (2021) China automobile low carbon action
plan (CALCP) research report (2021). Feng Yi, Tianjin
6. Melin HE, Rajaeifar MA, Ku A et al (2021) Global implications of the EU battery regulation.
Science 373:384–387
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7. Li S (2021) Research on the potential impact of carbon tariffs on China’s automobile export.
Shanghai International Studies University
8. Eicke L, Weko S, Apergi M et al (2021) Pulling up the carbon ladder? Decarbonization, depen-
dence, and third-country risks from the European carbon border adjustment mechanism. Energy
Res Soc Sci 80:110240
Chapter 7
Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees
for Low-Carbon Development
of Automotive Industry for Carbon
Neutrality

7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development

of the Automotive Industry

7.1.1 Construction of Standard System for Low-Carbon

Development of the Automotive Industry

As one of the primary sources of greenhouse gas emissions, the automotive industry is
faced with an inevitable choice in the future to carry out the planning and implemen-
tation of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals as soon as possible. To implement
the carbon peak and carbon neutrality plans, it is necessary to clearly know related
data of carbon emissions, which is inseparable from the quantitative accounting
standards for carbon emissions. Quantitative accounting is also inseparable from the
measurement and monitoring methods of carbon emissions. Besides, the accounting
results shall also be subject to external communication and disclosure, verification,
assessment, targeted emission reduction and carbon offsetting. These actions shall
be carried out under the guidance of standards. Therefore, it is necessary for the auto-
motive industry to establish a unified and standardized carbon emission management
basis, carbon emission measurement and monitoring, carbon emission accounting
and reporting, carbon verification, labeling, disclosure, assessment and other related
standard systems, to guide all major enterprises in the automotive industry to promote
the organization and product level carbon emission accounting, disclosure, emission
reduction measures and carbon neutrality measures. These actions play an important
supporting role for the entire automotive industrial chain to go hand in hand and to
coordinate the promotion of carbon neutrality in the automotive industry. At present,
the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the State Council and other
departments have successively issued a series of top-level design documents related
to carbon peak and carbon neutrality, and these documents signal the way forward

© China Machine Press 2023 303

Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd. et al.,
China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022),
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7502-8_7
304 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

for the construction of carbon neutrality related standard systems in the automotive
industry.
In October 2021, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and
the State Council issued the National Standardization Development Outline, This
document clarifies the relevant requirements for establishing and improving carbon
peak and carbon neutrality standards, and points out that “Speed up the update and
upgrade of energy conservation standards, and promptly revise a batch of mandatory
national standards in terms of energy consumption quotas and energy efficiency of
products and equipment, improve energy consumption quota requirements for key
products, expand the coverage of energy consumption quota standards, and improve
supporting standards such as energy accounting, testing and certification, assess-
ment and auditing; accelerate the improvement of carbon emission verification and
accounting standards for regions, industries, enterprises, and products. Formulate
greenhouse gas emission standards for key industries and products, and improve
the standard labeling system for low-carbon products; improve renewable energy
standards, study and formulate standards for ecological carbon sink, carbon capture,
utilization and storage; implement carbon peak, carbon neutrality and standardization
improvement project”.
Besides, in October 2021, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China
and the State Council issued the Opinions on the Complete, Accurate and Comprehen-
sive Implementation of the New Development Concept to Do a Good Job in Carbon
Peak and Carbon Neutrality. This document clearly specifies the relevant require-
ments for improving the standard measurement system and points out that “Establish
and improve carbon peak and carbon neutrality standard measurement systems; speed
up the update and upgrade of energy conservation standards, and promptly revise
a batch of mandatory national standards and engineering construction standards in
terms of energy consumption quotas and energy efficiency of products and equip-
ment, improve energy consumption quota requirements for key products, expand the
coverage of energy consumption quota standards, and improve supporting standards
such as energy accounting, testing and certification, assessment and auditing; accel-
erate the improvement of carbon emission verification, accounting and reporting
standards for regions, industries, enterprises, and products, and establish a unified
and standardized carbon accounting system; formulate greenhouse gas emission stan-
dards for key industries and products, and improve the standard labeling system for
low-carbon products; actively participate in the formulation of relevant international
standards and strengthen the international convergence of standards”.
In October 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the Notice by the
State Council of the Action Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peaking Before 2030 (No. 23
[2021] of the State Council). This documents clearly states requirements for “estab-
lishing a unified and standardized carbon emission statistics and accounting system”
and points out that “Strengthen the capacity building of carbon emission statistics
and accounting, deepen the research on accounting methods, and speed up the estab-
lishment of a unified and standardized carbon emission statistics and accounting
system; support industries and enterprises to carry out research on carbon emis-
sion accounting methodologies according to their own characteristics, and establish
7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 305

and improve the carbon emission measurement system; promote the development of
carbon emission measurement technology, speed up the application of emerging tech-
nologies such as remote sensing measurement, big data, and cloud computing in the
field of carbon emission measurement technology, and improve the level of statistics
and accounting; actively participate in the research of international carbon emission
accounting methods, and promote the establishment of a more fair and reasonable
carbon emission accounting method system”. Besides, it requires to “Improve laws,
regulations and standards; build a legal system conducive to green and low-carbon
development, and promote the formulation and revision of the Energy Law, Circular
Economy Promotion Law, Electric Power Law, Coal Law, Renewable Energy Law,
Circular Economy Promotion Law, and Clean Production Promotion Law. Accelerate
the update of energy conservation standards, revise a batch of mandatory national
standards and engineering construction standards in terms of energy consumption
quotas and energy efficiency of products and equipment, and engineering construc-
tion standards, and improve energy conservation and carbon reduction requirements;
improve the renewable energy standard system, and speed up the formulation and
revision of standards in related fields; establish and improve standards for hydrogen
production, storage, transport and use; improve the industrial green and low-carbon
standard system; establish carbon emission accounting, reporting, and verification
standards for key enterprises, and explore the establishment of carbon footprint stan-
dards for the entire life cycle of key products; actively participate in the formulation
and revision of international standards for energy efficiency and low carbon, and
strengthen the coordination in international standards”.

7.1.1.1 Quantitative Accounting Standards for Greenhouse Gases

at Home and Abroad

For the automotive industry, in order to formulate an implementation route for carbon
peak and carbon neutrality, and to realize the low-carbon development of automobile
enterprises and automobile products, the first and foremost thing is to calculate the
total amount of carbon emissions, clearly know the basic data of carbon emissions,
calculate the carbon footprint from the enterprise organization level and the product
level, and promote key energy conservation and emission reduction measures for
production links or product parts and materials with high carbon emission level.
Finally, for the links where carbon emissions cannot be reduced, carbon credits and
other carbon offsetting methods can be used to achieve carbon neutrality. Quantitative
accounting of carbon emissions is the basis for carbon emission reduction calcula-
tion and carbon trading. Work related to carbon emissions, such as carbon trading,
carbon tax, low-carbon assessment, carbon labeling, carbon information disclosure,
etc., is based on standard specifications and correct accounting of carbon emissions.
Management of carbon emissions should meet the basic monitoring, reporting and
verification (MRV) principles.
306 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

At present, international authoritative organizations such as the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the International Organization for Standardiza-
tion (ISO), the World Resources Institute (WRI), the World Business Council for
Sustainable Development (WBCSD) and the British Standards Institution (BSI) have
all issued relevant quantification accounting standards for carbon emissions.
According to different accounting objects, the standards for quantitative
accounting of carbon emissions mainly include standards in the country level, the
city level, the enterprise level, the project level and the commodity and service level.
Carbon emission accounting methods for different accounting objects may vary. At
present, the main accounting methods for carbon emissions are top-down input–
output method (I–O) and bottom-up process analysis method. The process analysis
method is mainly applicable to the enterprises, organizations, commodities, services,
etc. at the macro level. The accounting process is detailed and specific, but the divi-
sion of cycle stages and boundaries is more complicated. The I–O method is mainly
applicable to accounting objects such as countries, industrial departments, regions,
etc. at the macro level. The overall energy consumption can be obtained according
to statistical data, and the overall carbon emissions can be obtained by multiplying
it by the carbon emission factor. The calculation process is simple and the system is
complete. Individual nuances of internal carbon emissions cannot be distinguished.
The accounting standards for accounting objects at different levels and the purpose
of accounting results may also vary. Generally speaking, the quantitative accounting
standards for carbon emissions issued and implemented internationally at the country
level, the city level, the enterprise level, the project level and the product/service level
are as shown in Table 7.1.
(1) Country/region/city level: the national carbon emission accounting standards
mainly include the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Invento-
ries (2019) issued by IPCC. The city level carbon emission accounting standards
mainly include the GHG Protocol for City Accounting Standards and 2013 Spec-
ification for City GHG Emission Assessment (PAS 2070: 2013). Besides, China
has issued the Provincial Guidance on the Compilation of Greenhouse Gas
Inventories (Trial). Quantitative accounting of carbon emissions at the country,
region and local levels is called greenhouse gas inventory compilation, which is
used to count the total annual emissions in a region, and the accounting results
are used for international compliance or the central government’s supervision
over local governments. National, regional, and local carbon neutrality goals
are based on total national, regional, and local carbon emissions over a specific
time period.
(2) Organization level: the accounting standards at the organization level mainly
include ISO 14064–1: 2018 Greenhouse gases—Part 1: Specification with Guid-
ance at the Organization Level for Quantification and Reporting of Green-
house Gas Emissions and Removals, Greenhouse Gas Protocol: A Corpo-
rate Accounting and Reporting Standard, GHG Protocol: Scope 2 Guidance,
GHG Protocol: Corporate Value Chain (Scope 3) Accounting and Reporting
Standard, etc.
Table 7.1 International standards for quantitative accounting of carbon emissions
Object IPCC ISO/TC207/SC7 WRI/WBCSD: GHG protocol BSI
Organization
Top-down Country level National greenhouse gas / / /
inventories
City level / / City accounting and reporting PAS2070:2013
Bottom-up Enterprise organization level / ISO 14064–1:2018 Enterprise accounting and /
reporting
Scope 2 accounting guidance
Enterprise value chain (Scope 3)
accounting and reporting
Project level / ISO 14064–2:2019 Project accounting standards /
Produc(product&service) level / ISO 14067–2018 Product life cycle accounting and PAS2050:2011
reporting
7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry
307
308 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

At present, in terms of greenhouse gas accounting, China has also initially estab-
lished quantitative accounting standards and specifications for many industries. The
National Development and Reform Commission has successively issued a series of
greenhouse gas accounting methods for enterprises in 24 industries, mainly including
the Notice on the Issuance of GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting
Guidelines for the First Batch of 10 Industries (Trial) (NDRC Climatology [2013]
NO. 2526) issued in October 2013, the Notice on the Issuance of GHG Emission
Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for the Second Batch of 4 Indus-
tries (Trial) (NDRC Climatology [2014] NO. 2920) issued in December 2014 and
the Notice on the Issuance of GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting
Guidelines for the Third Batch of 10 Industries (Trial) (NDRC Climatology [2015]
NO. 1722) issued in July 2015, as shown in Table 7.2:
Besides, the National Technical Committee 548 on Carbon Management of Stan-
dardization Administration (SAC/TC 548) has also successively developed quantita-
tive accounting standards for various industries, such as GB/T 32,150–2015 General
Guideline of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Accounting and Reporting for Industrial
Enterprises and GB/T 32,151.1–GB/T 32,151.12 requirements of the greenhouse
gas emission accounting and reporting for enterprises in more than 10 industries,
such as power generation enterprises, power grid enterprises, magnesium smelting
enterprises, and the results of quantitative accounting can be adopted in carbon emis-
sion trading and others. The carbon emission accounting standards for organizations
issued by TC 548 are shown in Table 7.3.
There are various objects for carbon accounting and assessment analysis at the
enterprise level, mainly including the carbon emission accounting at the enterprise’s
operation level and the whole value chain level. Enterprise carbon verification and
carbon trading are mainly intended to calculate the total annual carbon emissions
at the enterprise organization level, including only the direct emissions within the
enterprise (Scope 1) and the carbon emissions during the production of electricity
and steam purchased by the enterprise (Scope 2). Such accounting methods are used
in carbon trading and carbon emission reduction verification. If it is necessary to use
the low-carbon supply chain mechanism and the producer responsibility extension
mechanism to exert enterprise social responsibility and drive the entire upstream and
downstream industrial chain of the enterprise to carry out carbon emission reduction
collaboratively, it is necessary to consider the carbon emissions of the whole value
chain of the enterprise; the scope of accounting also includes Scope 3 emissions,
that is, carbon emissions from upstream procurement, downstream product use and
scrapping.
(3) Goods/service (product) level: the quantitative accounting of carbon footprint
at the product level is mainly based on life cycle assessment. Currently, the stan-
dards related to the quantitative accounting of product carbon footprint mainly
include ISO 14067–2018 Greenhouse Gases—Carbon Footprint of Products—
Requirements and Guidelines for Quantification, Greenhouse Gas Protocol: A
Product Life Cycle Accounting and Reporting Standard, PAS2050-2011 Spec-
ification for the Assessment of the Lifecycle of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 309

Table 7.2 Greenhouse gas accounting standards for 24 industries successively issued by the
National Development and Reform Commission
S/N Issued batch Name
1 GHG Emission Accounting Methods and 1. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Reporting Guidelines for the First Batch of Reporting Guidelines for Power Generation
10 Industries (Trial) Enterprises (Trial)
2 2. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Reporting Guidelines for Power Grid
Enterprises (Trial)
3 3. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Reporting Guidelines for Iron and Steel
Production Enterprises (Trial)
4 4. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Reporting Guidelines for Chemical
Production Enterprises (Trial)
5 5. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Reporting Guidelines for Electrolytic
Aluminum Production Enterprises (Trial)
6 6. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Reporting Guidelines for Magnesium
Smelting Production Enterprises (Trial)
7 7. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Reporting Guidelines for Flat Glass
Enterprises (Trial)
8 8. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Reporting Guidelines for Cement
Enterprises (Trial)
9 9. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Reporting Guidelines for Ceramic
Production Enterprises (Trial)
10 10. GHG Emission Accounting Methods
and Reporting Guidelines for Civil Aviation
Enterprises (Trial)
11 GHG Emission Accounting Methods and 1. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Reporting Guidelines for the Second Batch Reporting Guidelines for Oil and Gas
of 4 Industries (Trial) Production Enterprises (Trial)
12 2. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Reporting Guidelines for Petrochemical
Enterprises (Trial)
13 3. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Reporting Guidelines for Independent
Coking Enterprises (Trial)
14 4. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Reporting Guidelines for Coal Production
Enterprises (Trial)
(continued)
310 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

Table 7.2 (continued)

S/N Issued batch Name
15 GHG Accounting Methods and Reporting 1. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Guidelines for the Third Batch of 10 Reporting Guidelines for Pulp and Paper
Industries (Trial) Making Enterprises (Trial)
16 2. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Reporting Guidelines for Other Non-ferrous
Metals Smelting and Rolling Production
Enterprises (Trial)
17 3. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Reporting Guidelines for Electronic
Equipment Production Enterprises (Trial)
18 4. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Reporting Guidelines for Manufacture of
Mechanical Equipment Enterprises (Trial)
19 5. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Reporting Guidelines for Mining
Enterprises (Trial)
20 6. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Reporting Guidelines for Food, Tobacco,
Alcohol, Beverage, and Refined Tea
Enterprises (Trial)
21 7. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Reporting Guidelines for Public Building
Operating Organization (Enterprise) (Trial)
22 8. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Reporting Guidelines for Land
Transportation Enterprises (Trial)
23 9. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and
Reporting Guidelines for Fluorochemical
Enterprises (Trial)
24 10. GHG Emission Accounting Methods
and Reporting Guidelines for Other
Industrial Enterprises (Trial)

of Goods & Services, TSQ 0010 General Principles for the Assessment and
Labeling of Carbon Footprint of Products, EU Product Environmental Foot-
print Category Rules, etc. PAS 2050 is the first accounting standard for product
carbon footprint, and it is also the most widely used product carbon footprint
assessment standard before ISO 14067 was officially released. PAS 2050 spec-
ifies requirements for the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions during the
life cycle of various goods and services (collectively referred to as products)
based on the technical methods and principles of life cycle assessment (LCA).
ISO 14067 aims to assess the potential impact of a product on global warming
based on quantitative results of greenhouse gas emissions and removals over the
life cycle. Both standards have the same scope of application, that is, goods and
7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 311

Table 7.3 Standards under the jurisdiction of National Technical Committee on Carbon Emission
Management of the Standardization Administration (TC 548)
S/N Standard No English name
1 GB/T 32,150–2015 General guideline of the greenhouse gas emissions accounting
and reporting for industrial enterprises
2 GB/T 32,151.1–2015 Requirements of the greenhouse gas emission accounting and
reporting - Part 1: Power generation enterprise
3 GB/T 32,151.1–2015 Requirements of the greenhouse gas emissions accounting and
reporting - Part 2: Power grid enterprise
4 GB/T 32,151.1–2015 Requirements of the greenhouse gas emission accounting and
reporting - Part 3: Magnesium smelting production enterprise
5 GB/T 32,151.1–2015 Requirements of the greenhouse gas emission accounting and
reporting - Part 4: Aluminum smelting production enterprise
6 GB/T 32,151.1–2015 Requirements of the greenhouse gas emission accounting and
reporting - Part 5: Iron and steel production enterprise
7 GB/T 32,151.1–2015 Requirements of the greenhouse gas emission accounting and
reporting - Part 6: Civil aviation enterprise
8 GB/T 32,151.1–2015 Requirements of the greenhouse gas emission accounting and
reporting - Part7: Flat glass enterprise
9 GB/T 32,151.1–2015 Requirements of the greenhouse gas emission accounting and
reporting - Part 8: Cement enterprise
10 GB/T 32,151.1–2015 Requirements of the greenhouse gas emission accounting and
reporting - Part 9: Ceramic production enterprise
11 GB/T 32,151.1–2015 Requirements of the greenhouse gas emissions accounting and
reporting - Part 10: Chemical production enterprise
12 GB/T 32,151.1–2015 Requirements of the greenhouse gas emissions accounting and
reporting - Part 11: Coal production enterprise
13 GB/T 32,151.1–2015 Requirements of the greenhouse gas emissions accounting and
reporting - Part 12: Textile and garment enterprise

services; the implementation is also the same, and both standards are applicable
for business-to-consumer assessment, including the emissions generated by the
product throughout its life cycle, namely, the “cradle-to-grave” approach, and
also applicable for business-to-business assessment, including the GHG emis-
sions (including all upstream emissions) until the input reaches a new organi-
zation, namely, the “cradle-to-gate” approach. ISO 14067 is in the same vein as
PAS 2050, and the carbon footprint quantification technology is basically the
same or can be coordinated, but more clear requirements for the communica-
tion of product carbon footprint have been formulated, in order to improve the
transparency of carbon footprint quantification and reporting, and achieve the
comparison of global-scale carbon footprint data.
At present, China has successively issued a series of carbon accounting stan-
dards at the product level, mainly covering the electronics and electrical appli-
ances industry, communication industry, etc., including SJ/T 11,717–2018 Carbon
312 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

Footprint of Products—Product Category Rule—LCD Monitor, SJ/T 11,718–2018

Carbon Footprint of Products—Product Category Rule—LCD Monitor—LCD Tele-
vision, YD/T 3048.2.2–2016 Technical Requirements for Assessment of Carbon
Footprint of Communication Products—Part 2: Ethernet Switch, YD/T 3048.1.1–
2016 Technical Requirements for Assessment of Carbon Footprint of Communi-
cation Products—Part 1: Mobile Phone, DB11/T 1860–2021 Guidelines for Elec-
tronic Information Products Carbon Footprint Accounting, etc. The carbon footprint
accounting standard at the product level in the automotive industry is still blank.
The product-level carbon footprint accounting is mainly intended to calculate the
total carbon emissions in the entire life cycle, including not only Scope 1 and Scope
2, but also the emissions from the production process of the raw material supply chain
and the carbon emissions from the downstream use and recycling of products, that
is, the Scope 3 carbon emissions. The product carbon footprint accounting results
are mainly used for the research and development of low-carbon technologies and
the comparison and assessment of the technical routes of similar products, or to
levy carbon taxes for the differences in the carbon footprint of similar products
between different enterprises or at home and abroad, so as to guide the entire supply
chain of the product to carry out carbon emission reductions, guide the society to
purchase products with lower carbon footprints, and then promote the whole society
to continuously strengthen the power of emissions reductions.
(4) Project level: The project-level carbon emission reduction accounting stan-
dards mainly include ISO 14064-2:2019 Greenhouse Gases - Part 2: Specifi-
cation with Guidance at the Project Level for Quantification, Monitoring and
Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions or Removal Enhancements,
GHG Protocol: A Project Accounting Standard, etc.
In terms of project carbon emission reduction quantification accounting and
reporting, China has released GB/T 33,760-2017 Technical Specification at the
Project Level for Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions—General
Requirements, GB/T 33,755-2017 Technical Specification at the Project Level for
Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions—Utilization of Waste Energy in
Iron and Steel Industry, and GB/T 33,756-2017 Technical Specification at the Project
Level for Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions—Alternative of Raw
Materials in Cement Clinker Production Industry, for the development of emission
reduction projects. Standards still in production include technical specification at
the project level for assessment of greenhouse gas emission reductions—exhaust gas
and waste water treatment and waste residue recycling, etc. China certified voluntary
emission reduction trading, etc.
The quantitative accounting of carbon emission reductions at the project level is
mainly intended to calculate the emission reductions after the implementation of the
project by subtracting the carbon emissions from the project implementation from
the carbon emission in the reference scenario, which is used to verify the volun-
tary emission reduction trading, clean development mechanisms and other related
applications to encourage voluntary carbon emission reduction investments.
7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 313

7.1.1.2 Standards for Verification of Greenhouse Gases at Home

and Abroad

For greenhouse gas emissions, the data must be accurate and reliable, can pass third-
party inspections. At present, the standards and specifications for verification mainly
include ISO 14064-3:2019 Greenhouse Gases—Part 3: Specification with Guid-
ance for the Verification and Validation of Greenhouse Gas Statements and ISO
14065:2020 General Principles and Requirements for Bodies Validating and Veri-
fying Environmental Information, so as to standardize the verification and verification
bodies and verification and verification activities.
In March 2021, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China issued the Veri-
fication Guidelines of the Enterprises’ Greenhouse Gas Emission Reports (Trial) to
verify the carbon emission reports of key enterprises that have carbon emissions
included in carbon emission trading. China’s certification industry has released a
series of industry standards related to carbon emission verification in different indus-
tries, mainly including RB/T 261-2018 Technical Specifications for Greenhouse Gas
Emission Verification of Ceramic Enterprises, RB/T 260-2018 Technical Specifica-
tions for Greenhouse Gas Emission Verification of Cement Enterprises, RB/T 259-
2018 Technical Specifications for Greenhouse Gas Emission Verification of Flat
Glass Production Enterprises, RB/T 258-2018 Technical Specifications for Green-
house Gas Emission Verification of Ethylene Enterprises, RB/T 257-2018 Technical
Specifications for Greenhouse Gas Emission Verification of Methanol Enterprises,
RB/T 256-2018 Technical Specifications for Greenhouse Gas Emission Verifica-
tion of Ammonia Synthesis Enterprises, RB/T 255-2018 Technical Specifications for
Greenhouse Gas Emission Verification of Calcium Carbide Enterprises, RB/T 254-
2018 Technical Specifications for Greenhouse Gas Emission Verification of Power
Generation Enterprises, RB/T 253-2018 Technical Specifications for Greenhouse
Gas Emission Verification of Power Grid Enterprises, RB/T 252-2018 Technical
Specifications for Greenhouse Gas Emission Verification of Chemical Enterprises,
RB/T 251-2018 Technical Specifications for Greenhouse Gas Emission Verification
of Iron and Steel Production Enterprises, RB/T 211-2016 General Specification for
Greenhouse Gas Emission Verification of the Organization, etc. At the same time,
TC548 National Carbon Emission Management Standards Committee is formulating
national standards such as General Guidelines for Carbon Emission Verification of
Industrial Enterprises, Greenhouse Gases-Requirements for Qualification Certifica-
tion or Other Forms of Recognition of Greenhouse Gas Verification Organizations,
Requirements for Qualification Conditions of Greenhouse Gas Verification Group
and Verification Auditors, etc., to regulate the third-party verification organizations,
personnel and behaviors.At present, the standards for carbon emission verification in
the automotive industry are still blank, and the research process is being organized.
314 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

7.1.1.3 Standards for Disclosure of Carbon Emission Information

at Home and Abroad

The disclosure of greenhouse gas emission information is an important prerequi-

site and fundamental guarantee to ensure the realization of the control goal of total
amount of greenhouse gas emissions, the smooth implementation of carbon trading,
and the promotion of enterprise carbon emission reductions. Research shows that,
by clarifying legal system guarantees, improving information disclosure paths, and
strengthening supervision and other measures, it is possible to effectively establish a
greenhouse gas emission information disclosure system. In May 2021, China issued
a notice on the Plan for the Reform of the Legal Disclosure System of Environmental
Information. In December 2021, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued
the Administrative Measures for the Legal Disclosure of Enterprise Environmental
Information, proposing relevant requirements for enterprises to disclose environ-
mental information. However, the disclosure requirements for greenhouse gases are
not detailed enough, and the relevant requirements such as disclosure content and
format are not clear enough. Shaanxi, Sichuan, Jiangxi and other provinces in China
have established systems for key enterprises (institutions) to disclose greenhouse
gas emission information in stages, with enterprise carbon emissions or energy
consumption as the threshold standards, and these systems specify the disclosure
content, channels, time limit, etc. The carbon emission information disclosure stan-
dards at the level of automobile enterprises and automobile products are still in
the research process. TC548 National Carbon Emission Management Standards
Committee is formulating the Requirements and Guidelines for Enterprise Carbon
Emission Management Information Disclosure.

7.1.1.4 Standards for Carbon Emission Assessment and Constraints

at All Stages in the Automobile Product Life Cycle at Home
and Abroad

For the carbon emissions of automobile enterprises and automobile products, on the
basis of quantitative accounting, low-carbon assessment, or setting limit values in
stages for control is an important guiding tool for realizing the low-carbon devel-
opment of automobile enterprises and automobile products. In terms of the total
amount of carbon emissions at the organization level of automobile enterprises, the
carbon emission intensity of the unit product production process, the carbon emis-
sion intensity of the vehicle service stage, the total amount and intensity of carbon
emissions in the product life cycle, etc., it is possible to make relevant limits, or carry
out low-carbon assessment, to restrict and control the total amount or intensity of
carbon emissions.
7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 315

(1) Total Carbon Emission Constraints at the Organization Level of Automo-

bile Enterprises
At present, for the carbon emission constraints at the organization level of auto-
mobile enterprises, pilot carbon emission trading for auto manufacturing enter-
prises have been carried out in some regions in China, and annual carbon emis-
sion quotas have been set, which can be regarded as carbon emission constraints
at the organization level of automobile enterprises. The total carbon emissions
at the organization level of automobile enterprises are controlled through the
emission trading market and the market mechanism.
(2) Carbon Emission Intensity Control in the Production Stage of Automobile
Products
At present, China has carried out the development of the automotive industry
standard Calculation Methods of the Comprehensive Energy Consumption
of Automobile Products, and the standard QC/T1157-2021 has already been
released. This standard mainly focuses on the quantitative accounting of the
energy consumption per unit product in the vehicle production stage. The
accounting scope includes the total energy consumption of the direct produc-
tion system, auxiliary production system and ancillary production system of
the automobile enterprise, which is divided by the total output of the product
to get the comprehensive energy consumption per unit product. In the future,
on this basis, it is possible to study and set a limit or advanced value of energy
consumption per unit vehicle product to guide the low-carbon development of
the vehicle manufacturing process, and reduce the carbon emission intensity
at the unit vehicle product manufacturing stage. However, the standard does
not consider the impact of different energy types on carbon emissions, nor
does it consider non-energy greenhouse gas emissions. At present, TC548 is
formulating the General Rules for Compiling Carbon Emission Limits of Unit
Products (Services) and Greenhouse Gas Emission Limits of Unit Products of
Urban Rail Transit, etc. In the future, the automobile industry will also need to
formulate the carbon emission accounting and quota standards for unit output
of automobile products.
(3) Carbon Emission Intensity in the Vehicle Service Stage (Fuel Economy or
Exhaust Emission Limits and Test Methods):
For the carbon emission management of motor vehicles, the common prac-
tice in the world is to first carry out the emission reductions of air pollutants,
and then gradually carry out energy saving and carbon reductions. The carbon
emission management policies of various countries are shown in Fig. 7.1. The
CO2 emission reduction in the motor vehicle service stage originated from
the fuel economy control. As early as the 1970s, the United States and Japan
carried out fuel economy control due to the user’s energy saving needs, vehicle
technology development and energy security. The EU carried out related work
in the 1990s. As the issue of global warming has been paid more and more
attention, around 2010, the European Union and the United States respectively
issued CO2 emission regulations for motor vehicles, and gradually formed a rela-
tively complete international coordinated management and control of CO2 , fuel
316 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

economy, and air pollutants. At present, the management modes of motor vehicle
CO2 emissions are different at home and abroad. Some modes are intended
to directly control CO2 , some modes are intended to indirectly control CO2
through fuel consumption, and some modes are intended to control CO2 and
fuel consumption.
(a) European Union:
In 2009, the European Parliament and the European Commission issued the
Regulation (EC) No 443/2009 setting emission performance standards for
passenger vehicles and light-duty commercial vehicles (hereinafter referred to
as the EU CO2 Regulation), and the European Commission led the full partici-
pation of all member states; the supervision is officially launched in 2012. The
regulation requires that the average CO2 emission of newly registered passenger
vehicles in the EU in 2015 must reach the target of 130 g/km, and the average
CO2 emission of new passenger vehicles should be lower than 95 g/km by
2020. The 2021 target is set at 95gCO2 /km after the regulation was revised
in 2014, which is equivalent to a 40% reduction compared to that in 2007. In
2019, the European Union adopted the Regulation (EU) No. 2019/631 setting
emission performance standards for passenger vehicles and light-duty commer-
cial vehicles, replacing the Regulation (EC) No. 443/2009, and it was officially
implemented in January 2020. The CO2 emission data of vehicles specified
in the EU CO2 regulations must be tested and provided by third-party testing
agencies. For the test conditions, 2021 is a watershed, that is, the test conditions
before 2021 is the New European Standard Driving Cycle (NEDC), and from
2021, the Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP) is
adopted. Furthermore, in order to reduce discrepancies between laboratory data
and actual road emissions data, the European Commission regularly collects
actual CO2 emissions and fuel or energy consumption data from new vehicles
using on-board fuel and/or energy consumption monitoring device (OBFCM).
(b) United States:
In 2010, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first established green-
house gas emission standards for light-duty vehicles under Section 202 (a) of the
Clean Air Act, limiting greenhouse gas emissions from passenger vehicles and

United States Japan European Union China

Control type Fuel economy, CO2 Fuel economy CO2 Fuel consumption
Footprint area (track
Limit basis Kerb mass Kerb mass Kerb mass
width × wheelbase)
Enterprise average Enterprise average
Assessment fuel economy + Enterprise average Enterprise average fuel consumption +
method enterprise average fuel economy CO2 emissions limits of a single
CO2 emissions vehicle
Punishment
Penalty Penalty Penalty Stop production
methods

Fig. 7.1 Carbon emission management policies of various countries

7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 317

light-duty trucks, expressed in g/mile. As early as in 1975, the National Highway

Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) set the corporate average fuel economy
(CAFEs) for passenger vehicles and light-duty trucks under the Energy Policy
and Conservation Act, expressed in mpg and developed it as the average fuel
economy standard achieved by a fleet of cars produced in a given year.
In 2012, the EPA and NHTSA issued the Model Year 2017 and Later Light-
Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy
Standards (hereinafter referred to as “GHG and CAFE Standards”). EPA has
published GHG emission standards for MY2017-2025 light-duty vehicles, and is
responsible for managing GHG emissions in the vehicle service stage; NHTSA
is responsible for managing CAFE, formulating fuel economy standards for
MY2017-2021 light-duty vehicles, and forecasting standards for MY2022-2025
light-duty vehicles. The GHG and CAFE standards are intended to increase fuel
efficiency by an average of about 5% per year, with the average fuel efficiency
of the entire fleet reaching 46.7 pmg by 2025.
In September 2018, NHTSA and EPA proposed to revise the existing GHG
and CAFE standards, and to study and formulate new standards covering the
MY2021-2026 light-duty vehicles. In April 2020, the Safer Affordable Fuel-
Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule for Model Years 2021–2026 Passenger Vehicles
and Light Trucks (hereinafter referred to as the “SAFE Regulation”) was issued
and officially implemented in 2021. The SAFE regulation freezes the standard
target requirements after 2021, that is, the CO2 target value after 2021 remains
unchanged at the 2021 level.
(c) China:
Since 2001, China has officially launched the research and formulation of
the standard system for fuel consumption of motor vehicles, successively
formulated and implemented fuel consumption standards for five stages, and
established a relatively complete vehicle energy-saving standard system of
“single vehicle limit + enterprise average target value”, to promote the real-
ization of China’s ever-improving vehicle energy-saving development goals.
At present, China’s standards and regulations on carbon emission intensity
of vehicle products mainly include test methods, limits, energy consumption
labeling, basic operating conditions, conversion and out-of-cycle technologies
for fuel consumption of vehicles of various fuel types. There are 4 standards
for fuel consumption limits, 4 standards for test methods, 1 standard for energy
consumption labeling, and 3 standards for basic general aspects of gasoline
and diesel vehicles. There are 1 test method standard for fuel consumption of
hybrid electric vehicles, 1 test method standard for fuel consumption of vehicles
powered by alternative fuel, and 3 standards for test methods, limits and labeling
for power consumption of battery electric vehicles. 1 test method standard for
the fuel consumption of fuel cell vehicles is shown in Fig. 7.2.
China has implemented the management of passenger vehicle fuel consump-
tion since 2005. By 2020, China’s passenger vehicle fuel consumption management
has experienced four stages of development, and is about to enter the fifth stage.
318 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

Fig. 7.2 China automobile energy conservation standard system (constraint, assessment and
control standards for carbon intensity)

The standards and regulations involving low-carbon constraints mainly include fuel
consumption limit standards at various stages, as shown in Table 7.4.
At present, China has also issued a series of standards for exhaust emission limits
and test methods, mainly including China I, China II, China III, China IV, China V,
China VI and other emission limits. China 6 emissions standards are currently under
implementation. However, at present, China’s exhaust emission standards mainly
impose corresponding limits on conventional pollutants, and restrict greenhouse
gases such as methane and nitrous oxide by restricting the content of conventional
pollutants, but do not control the carbon dioxide greenhouse gas in exhaust gas. At
the same time, greenhouse gas emissions such as refrigerant leakage have not been
included in the relevant accounting and control scope.

Table 7.4 China standards and regulations for passenger vehicle fuel consumption
S/N Stage Date No Name
1 Stage 1 2005.07.01 GB 19,578–2004 Limits of fuel consumption for passenger
2 Stage 2 7/1/2008 vehicles
3 Stage 3 2012–2016 GB 27,999–2011 Fuel consumption evaluation methods and
targets for passenger vehicles
4 Stage 4 2016–2020 GB 19,578–2014 Limits of fuel consumption for passenger
vehicles
GB 27,999–2014 Fuel consumption evaluation methods and
targets for passenger vehicles
5 Stage 5 2021 PAS2050-2011 Fuel consumption evaluation methods and
targets for passenger vehicles
7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 319

In addition, the transportation industry has issued the grade assessment stan-
dards for the energy efficiency and CO2 emission intensity of commercial vehicles
for passenger transportation and cargoes transportation, including JT/T 1249–2019
Grades and Evaluation Methods of Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emission Intensity of
Commercial Vehicle for Passenger Transportation and JT/T 1248–2019 Grades and
Evaluation Methods of Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emission Intensity of Commer-
cial Vehicle for Cargoes Transportation, and through these standards, the grades of
energy efficiency and carbon dioxide emission of commercial vehicles for passenger
transportation and cargoes transportation can be evaluated.
From the perspective of management categories, the European Union firstly
carried out carbon emission management of automobiles, and the United States
focused on the management of automobile fuel efficiency in the early stage, and
implemented the parallel management of carbon emissions and fuel economy in
the later stage. From the perspective of management stage, Europe Union and the
United States currently mainly focus on the direct carbon emission management at
the vehicle driving stage, and comprehensively consider the life cycle carbon emis-
sions of the vehicles in the standard research process. In the future, the Europe Union
has plans to expand the management stage of regulations to the entire life cycle of
automobiles, and has adopted various management policies to directly and indirectly
control carbon emissions throughout the entire life cycle of automobiles. A compar-
ison of domestic and foreign vehicle carbon emission standards is shown in Table
7.5.
China has not yet established a special standard and management system for
carbon emissions in the use stage of motor vehicles. CO2 emissions are mainly
controlled indirectly by controlling the fuel consumption of motor vehicles. Short-
lived greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide, in the form of air pollutants
are managed according to pollutant emission standard. The A/C refrigerants, HFCs,
are managed in the form of international compliance.
The existing fuel consumption standards can only indirectly control the CO2 emis-
sions of motor vehicles, and cannot achieve the regulation of non-CO2 greenhouse
gases such as methane, nitrous oxide and hydrofluorocarbons. The European Union
and the United States have included methane, nitrous oxide and hydrofluorocarbons
together with CO2 into the scope of greenhouse gas control of motor vehicles, and
implemented comprehensive control over exhaust emissions and A/C refrigerants of
motor vehicles. In the future, a comprehensive standard system of carbon emission
limits and test methods should be established on the basis of the current standards
for energy conservation and exhaust emission.
(4) Control of Total Carbon Emissions in the Vehicle Use Stage
The carbon emission intensity per unit of mileage of a vehicle is a carbon
emission potential of the vehicle, and the total carbon emissions at the use stage
is also related to factors such as the distance traveled and driving time at the use
stage. At present, some regions have included road transportation enterprises
320 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

Table 7.5 Comparison of domestic and foreign vehicle carbon emission standards
Countries European Union United States China
Standard name CO2 emission GHG) and CAFE Limits of fuel
standards for standards for consumption for
passenger vehicles and light-duty vehicles passenger vehicles
light-duty commercial Limits of fuel
vehicles consumption for
light-duty commercial
vehicles
Competent authority European Commission EPA, NHTSA Ministry of Industry
and Information
Technology
Current standards Regulation(EC) SAFE 2021 GB 19,578–2021, GB
443/2009 20,997–2015
Legal basis Treaty establishing the EPCA, CAA None
European Community
Vehicle model range Passenger vehicles and Passenger vehicles Passenger vehicles
light-duty commercial and light-duty trucks (M1 category) and
vehicles with a curb with a curb mass less light-duty commercial
mass less than than 8,500 lb (about vehicles (N1 category
3,500 kg 3,855.5 kg) with the maximum
design speed greater
than or equal to
50 km/h and M2
category with a curb
mass less than
3,500 kg)
Management category CO2 Fuel consumption and Fuel consumption
greenhouse gases
Boundary range Vehicle driving stage Vehicle driving stage Vehicle driving stage
Target 95 gCO2 /km for Target values of GHG In 2025, the CAFE of
passenger vehicles and emissions and CAFE passenger vehicles
147 gCO2 /km for are 241gCO2 /mile will drop to
light-duty commercial (about 150 gCO2 /km) 4L/100 km,
vehicles in 2021 and 36.9mpg (about corresponding to CO2
6.9L/100 km), emissions of about
respectively in 2021 95 g/km
Penalty mechanism 95 euros per vehicle CAFE: $5.50 per For enterprises with
for every 1 g/km vehicle for every negative credits as
exceeding the standard 0.1mpg below compensation their
standard; GHG: stop application for public
sales and penalty announcement will be
suspended, and they
be included in the list
of untrustworthy
enterprises and
publicized
7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 321

in the local carbon emission trading market to restrict the total annual carbon
emissions of transportation enterprises. In the future, around the use stage, it
is necessary to establish a standard method for the control of the actual total
carbon emissions. For example, formulate accounting standards for annual total
carbon emissions of the vehicle owners at the use stage to support the inclusion
of the annual carbon emissions of road transport enterprises in carbon emission
trading, or establish carbon accounts of individual vehicle owners through the
carbon inclusion mechanism to reduce the actual total carbon emissions at the
driving stage of the vehicle. At present, the National Development and Reform
Commission has issued the Guide to Accounting Methods and Reporting of
Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Land Transportation Enterprises, and Beijing has
issued the local standard Accounting and Reporting Requirements for Carbon
Emissios of Road Transportation. The national standards for carbon emission
accounting and control of road transportation enterprises and individual car
owners are still blank.
(5) Control of life Cycle Carbon Emissions/Intensity of Automobile Products
At present, the standards and regulations on the control of life cycle carbon emis-
sions/intensity of vehicles and parts are still blank. The EU battery regulations
set requirements for three stages of the life cycle carbon footprint of batteries.
The first stage indicates the carbon footprint quantitative labeling, the second
stage indicates the carbon emission level labeling, and the third stage declares
requirements for compliance to the relevant life cycle carbon footprint limits.
In the future, the Europe Union has plans to expand the management of CO2
emission regulations from the use stage to the entire life cycle of automobiles,
and has adopted various management policies to directly and indirectly control
carbon emissions throughout the entire life cycle of automobiles. WP29/GRPE
Working Group of the United Nations has prepared to set up an informal working
group on LCA carbon footprint of vehicles, which will build a global automo-
bile technical regulation system around the accounting and control of carbon
footprint of the whole vehicle life cycle. At present, China’s standards on the
life cycle carbon footprint labeling of vehicles and parts are under study, and
the relevant limit standards are still blank.

7.1.1.5 Specifications and Standards for Carbon Neutrality

Implementation and Certification at Home and Abroad

PAS2060 published by the British Standards Institution (BSI): The 2010 Specification
for the Demonstration of Carbon Neutrality is the first standard in the world in which
a carbon neutrality demonstration is proposed, and a new version PAS2060 was
released in 2014: 2014 Specification for the Demonstration of Carbon Neutrality. The
standard puts forward relevant normative requirements for the certification process
of carbon neutrality, the determination and verification of carbon emissions of the
subject matter, carbon footprint quantification, carbon neutrality commitment, carbon
emission reduction, carbon offsetting, carbon neutrality declaration and maintaining
322 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

carbon neutrality status. ISO/TC207/SC7 has launched the carbon neutrality ISO
14068 research, which is expected to be completed and issued in 2023. The standard
is still in the draft stage, and discussions are focused on the scope of the standard,
definitions of core terms, emission reduction requirements, and exchange of carbon
neutrality information.
In 2019, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China issued the Imple-
mentation Guidelines for Carbon Neutrality of Large-scale Event (Trial), which
specifies the basic requirements, principles, procedures, commitments and assess-
ments of carbon neutrality of large-scale events. In 2021, Beijing issued the local
standard DB11/T 1861–2021 Implementation Guidelines for Carbon Neutrality of
Enterprises and Institutions, which specifies the implementation process, prepara-
tion stage, implementation stage, assessment stage and declaration stage of carbon
neutrality of enterprises and institutions in Beijing.
At present, the automotive industry has not issued the carbon neutrality imple-
mentation guidelines and standards, and most automobile enterprises are in the wait-
and-see stage for carbon neutrality. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct research on
carbon neutrality implementation guidelines as soon as possible to standardize and
clarify implementation subjects, subject matters, implementation process, carbon
footprint quantification, carbon emission reduction, carbon offsetting, statement,
carbon information disclosure and other aspects of carbon neutrality in the automo-
tive industry, and to guide the implementation and certification of carbon neutrality
at the organization and product levels in the automotive industry.

7.1.1.6 Analysis of the Implementation Subjects and Subject Matters

of Carbon Emission Standardization in the Automotive
Industry

According to GB/T 4754–2017 Industrial Classification for National Economic

Activities, the automotive industry is a collection of automobile manufacturing enter-
prises. It mainly includes manufacturing enterprises of vehicles (gasoline and diesel,
new energy), engines, modified vehicles, low-speed vehicles, trams, bodies and
trailers, parts and accessories. For the automotive industry, automobile manufac-
turers are responsibility subject of the reduction of carbon emissions from automo-
bile enterprises’ own operations, the whole value chains of the enterprises, and the
life cycle of automobile products. It is necessary to make quantitative accounting for
their own carbon emissions, upstream and downstream value chain carbon emissions,
and product life cycle carbon footprints, and establish targeted emission reduction
measures to ultimately achieve carbon neutrality at the enterprise operation level,
the whole value chain level and the product life cycle level. Therefore, the imple-
mentation subjects of automobile carbon emission standardization mainly include
manufacturers of vehicles, batteries and other parts.
At the same time, with the implementation of the producer responsibility exten-
sion mechanism, automobile enterprises are also responsible for resources, energy
and environmental issues in the use, scrap recycling, and recycling links of their
7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 323

products. Therefore, the implementation subjects of carbon emission standardization

in the automotive industry also include road transportation enterprises, individual
owners, ELV recycling and dismantling enterprises, parts remanufacturing enter-
prises, battery echelon use enterprises and recycling enterprises and other compre-
hensive utilization enterprises of automobile resources. Different types of enterprises
also have different carbon emission sources and accounting boundaries. In addition,
it is also necessary to establish relevant standards for carbon emission verification and
assessment in order to recognize the accounting results. Therefore, the implementa-
tion subjects of the standards also includes third-party verification and certification
agencies. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a vehicle carbon emission manage-
ment standard system for vehicle enterprises, parts production enterprises, compre-
hensive resource utilization enterprises, and third-party verification and certification
enterprises who function as the implementation subjects of standardization.
The implementation subjects of carbon emission management standardization in
the automotive industry has been clarified, and the standardization object needs to
be further clarified, that is, it is necessary to clarify the subject matters for which
quantitative accounting, verification and reduction of carbon emissions are carried out
by the implementation subjects of standardization. The subjects of standardization
of carbon emission management in the automotive industry mainly carry out the
accounting, verification and reduction of carbon emissions from the organization
level of automobile enterprises and the level of automobile products (vehicles, parts
and materials). Furthermore, the automotive industry can also reduce its own carbon
emissions by actively developing carbon emission reduction projects, and use them
to verify the trading of voluntary emission reductions to subsidize its own emission
reduction costs. At the current stage, a carbon emission management standard system
can be built in the automotive industry by taking the organization level and product
level as the standardization object.
The automotive industry has a wide variety of products, including passenger
vehicles, commercial vehicles for passenger transportation, commercial vehicles for
cargo transportation, trailers and various types of parts, including new parts, reused
parts, remanufactured parts, echelon used parts, recycled materials, etc. Therefore,
the accounting boundaries of the carbon footprint of various types of vehicles and
parts may also vary, and it is also necessary to establish a quantitative accounting
standard for the carbon footprint of various types of vehicles and parts.
To sum up, according to the different subject matters of carbon emission manage-
ment standardization, the automotive industry focuses on the research of carbon
emission management standards at the organization level of automobile enterprises
and the level of automobile products. For the carbon emissions at the organization
level of the enterprise, the carbon emissions in the scope of its own operation and the
whole value chain can be calculated separately; for automobile products, the carbon
emissions within different boundaries can be calculated according to different types
of products. For B-B products, part of the carbon footprint of the “cradle-to-gate”
or “gate-to-gate” boundary range can be calculated, and for B-C products, the life
cycle carbon footprint of the “cradle-to-grave” boundary can be calculated, and part
of carbon footprint of each stage can be decomposed and the carbon footprint quota
324 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

for each stage is set separately, and the carbon emission reductions in each link of the
product life cycle can be carried out in stages and step by step. The implementation
subjects and subject matters of carbon emission management standardization in the
automotive industry are shown in Table 7.6.
In addition to the carbon emission quantification accounting standards at the
organization level of automobile enterprises and the level of automobile products,
automobiles, as mobile energy-consuming devices, are also an important source of
carbon emissions in the transportation industry. The gasoline, diesel, natural gas,
electricity and other energy sources used in automobile products are equivalent to
a part of the automobile, and carbon emissions may also be generated during the
production process and the use process. Furthermore, washer fluid and coolant that
are continuously added during the use of the automobile, and replaced parts should
also be included in the accounting scope of the carbon footprint of the entire vehicle
life cycle. Therefore, for the accounting of the carbon footprint of the entire vehicle
product life cycle, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the sum of the vehicle
cycle carbon footprint and the fuel cycle carbon footprint. Regarding the carbon

Table 7.6 Implementation subjects and subject matters of carbon emission management standard-
ization in the automotive industry
Standardization Vehicle manufacturing enterprises, automobile parts manufacturing
implementation subject enterprises, comprehensive utilization enterprises of automobile
resources, third-party verification and certification agencies, etc.…
Standardization subject Organization level of automobile Automobile product level
matter enterprises
Vehicle manufacturers, body and Vehicle products (passenger
trailer manufacturers, battery vehicles, commercial vehicles for
manufacturers, drive motor passenger transportation,
manufacturers, wheel commercial vehicles for cargo
manufacturers, tyre transportation), bodies and
manufacturers, body parts trailers, batteries, drive motors,
manufacturers, interior parts wheels, tyres, body parts, interior
manufacturers, automotive glass parts, automobile glass, lead-acid
manufacturers, lead-acid battery batteries, recycled parts,
manufacturers, recycling and remanufactured products,
dismantling enterprises, echelon used products, recycled
remanufacturing enterprises, products…
echelon use enterprises,
recycling enterprises…
Accounting boundary Operation: Scope 1, Scope 2 B-B products: cradle-to-gate,
range Whole value chain: Scope 1, gate-to-gate
Scope 2, Scope 3 B-C products: cradle-to-grave
Application of accounting Enterprise carbon emission Product carbon footprint
results trading, enterprise low-carbon labeling, low-carbon product
assessment, carbon emission assessment, product carbon tax,
information disclosure, product carbon neutrality
enterprise carbon neutrality certification, etc
certification, etc
7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 325

footprint of the automobile fuel production stage, the energy industry can make
accounting and carry out emission reductions. The carbon footprint of fuel and elec-
tricity consumed at the automobile use stage can be constrained by the transportation
industry to formulate carbon emission reduction targets.

7.1.1.7 Framework of Carbon Neutrality Standard System

for the Automotive Industry

To establish the carbon neutrality standard system for the automotive industry, first
establish quantitative accounting standards for carbon emissions in the automotive
industry, and then clarify the accounting objects, accounting scope, and accounting
boundaries. Only by calculating the carbon emissions of each subject matter, can
the management of carbon emission reduction be carried out based on the industry
average level or the overall emission reduction goal.
In addition to the quantitative accounting standards for carbon emissions, it is
also necessary to formulate basic general standards, such as terms and definitions for
vehicle carbon emission management, to define the special terms required for carbon
emission quantitative accounting, emission reduction and carbon neutrality at the
automobile enterprise level, automobile product level, fuel level, project level. It is
also necessary to carry out research on basic standards, such as automobile life cycle
assessment methods and carbon neutrality implementation guidelines for the automo-
tive industry, so as to guide automobile enterprises to carry out life cycle assessment
and carbon neutrality implementation at the organization level and product level.
The results of carbon emission accounting and quantification should be commu-
nicated and disclosed externally. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate relevant
standards regarding the carbon footprint labeling of automobile products and the
disclosure of carbon emission information of automobile enterprises to guide enter-
prises to publicize carbon emission information and emission reduction measures at
the organization level to the public, and to quantify and disclose the carbon footprint
of products by sticking carbon labels on products so that the products can receive
the supervision and purchase of customers and the society. Besides, these standards
provide basic data support for the subsequent establishment of assessment and limits
of low-carbon enterprises and low-carbon products.
Carbon emission management should follow the MRV principle to establish a
carbon emission monitoring system, and to carry out research on monitoring stan-
dards for monitoring methods and monitoring equipment of carbon emission. Prepare
accounting reports based on accounting standards, and establish standards regarding
carbon verification and product carbon footprint verification at the organization level
of the automotive industry, so that third-party agencies or local governments can carry
out carbon verification and certification for the automotive industry in accordance
with these standards.
After obtaining the carbon emission accounting process data and total carbon
emission data, low-carbon assessment and emission limiting can be carried out,
and carbon emission reduction measures can be taken in a targeted manner. For
326 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

Fig. 7.3 Framework of standardization system for carbon emission management of the automotive
industry

example, enterprises can use clean energy, low-carbon materials, recycled materials,
and improve the production energy efficiency and product energy efficiency; it is also
possible to carry out research on relevant emission reduction technology path stan-
dards to guide enterprises to implement the low-carbon emission reduction measures
in a standardized manner.
Finally, how to carry out carbon neutrality at the organization level and product
level of the automotive industry and how to prove whether carbon neutrality is
achieved also require establishment of relevant standards to guide automobile
enterprise to carry out carbon neutrality implementation and certification.
To sum up, the standard system for the carbon neutrality goal of the automo-
tive industry can cover basic general standards, carbon emission monitoring stan-
dards, quantitative accounting and reporting standards, carbon emission verification
standards, carbon emission assessment and constraints standards, carbon emission
reduction technology standards, etc. Figure 7.3 shows the carbon neutrality standard
system framework of the automotive industry.

汽车行业碳中和标准体系框架 Carbon neutrality standard system framework of the

automotive industry
基础通用 Basic general
碳排放监测 Carbon emission monitoring
碳核算及报告 Carbon accounting and reporting
碳核查 Carbon verification
评价约束 Evaluation and constraints
减排技术 Emission reduction technology
术语定义分类 Definition and classification of terms
信息披露碳标签 Information disclosure carbon labeling
数据质量管理 Data quality management
碳中和实施指南 Carbon neutrality implementation guidelines
监测设备 Monitoring equipment
(continued)
7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 327

(continued)
汽车行业碳中和标准体系框架 Carbon neutrality standard system framework of the
automotive industry
监测方法 Monitoring method
监测平台 Monitoring platform
监测实施指南 Monitoring implementation guidelines
企业碳核算报告 Enterprise carbon accounting and reporting
车辆产品碳足迹 Vehicle product carbon footprint
汽车燃料碳核算 Automobile fuel carbon accounting
汽车减排项目 Automobile emission reduction item
汽车企业碳核查 Automobile enterprise carbon verification
汽车产品碳核查 Automobile product carbon verification
汽车燃料碳核查 Automobile fuel carbon verification
汽车项目碳核查 Automobile item carbon verification
低碳企业及限额 Low-carbon enterprises and limits
低碳产品及限额 Low-carbon products and limits
低碳燃料及限额 Low-carbon fuel and limits
汽车碳中和评价 Automobile carbon neutrality and assessment
汽车生产能效 Energy efficiency in automobile production
汽车能效及排放 Automobile energy efficiency and emissions
低碳原燃料利用 Low-carbon raw fuel utilization
汽车循环经济 Automotive circular economy

The automotive industry is a pillar industry of China’s national economy. The

automotive industrial chain is long and covers a wide range. Although the total
carbon emissions of automobile parts manufacturing and vehicle manufacturing are
not large, the carbon emissions from automobile-related upstream and downstream
industrial chains cannot be ignored. China has to juggle many tasks in a short period
of time to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality. It is necessary to establish a
carbon neutrality standard system for the automotive industry as soon as possible, to
guide enterprises to carry out carbon emission monitoring, quantitative accounting
and investigation, to carry out carbon emission information disclosure and carbon
emission labeling, and to accept third-party carbon verification and certification in
a standardized manner. On the basis of accumulated carbon emission data of auto-
mobile enterprises and automobile products, implementation of carbon emission
reduction in the entire upstream and downstream industrial chain of the automotive
industry can be realized in a more efficient and faster manner at the lower cost by
researching and formulating assessment standards for low-carbon automobile enter-
prises and low-carbon products, establishing standards for enterprise carbon emission
limits and product carbon footprint limits, and exploring the carbon emission trading,
carbon tax and other economic means.
328 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

As the automobile products are the energy-consuming equipment of road trans-

portation, the carbon emission reductions of the fuels and electricity used by auto-
mobile products require the coordination and cooperation of the energy industry
to develop clean energy, low-carbon fuels, biomass fuels, carbon dioxide synthetic
fuels, carbon–neutral fuels, etc., and thus to achieve carbon emission reductions in
the process of vehicle use, and also to ensure the emission reductions of the life
cycle carbon footprint at the energy industry’s own energy product level. The carbon
emission reductions during the use of automobile products also require the trans-
portation industry to reduce the total carbon footprint of vehicles in the use process
by carrying out carbon emission reductions at the enterprise level and transportation
service level. and to ensure the achievement of carbon emission reduction goals at
the enterprise level and transport service level of the transportation industry. The
automotive, transportation, and energy industries form a close and complete “carbon
chain”. They are interrelated, supported and restrained by each other. The formu-
lation of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals and strategies in these industries
must achieve all-round coordination to ensure that goals of them can be achieved.
It is not allowed that other industries have no place to survive due to the carbon
neutrality goals of one industry. It is also necessary for the state to scientifically set
carbon emission goals for different industries and different regions from a macro
level, to achieve coordinated advancement of various industries, and to ensure that
the country-level carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals can be achieved based
on the healthy and sustainable development of the automobile, transportation and
energy industries.

7.1.2 Policy Support for Low-Carbon Development

of the Automotive Industry

Based on the low-carbon research of the automotive industry and the tracking of
domestic and foreign policies, this study initially proposes a low-carbon develop-
ment policy toolkit covering the entire life cycle of automobiles, including resource
guarantee means in procurement, green technology library in production, environ-
mental information and carbon information disclosure in information disclosure and
fiscal and tax incentives for industrial development.

7.1.2.1 Green Resource Supply and Guarantee for Exporting

Enterprises

For product exporting enterprises, the use of green resources in the production process
has become an increasingly important requirement in the process of participating in
international trade. For example, the EU battery regulations put forward requirements
for the recovery and utilization rate of important metals such as nickel, cobalt, and
7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 329

lithium in the batteries. Requirements for carbon footprints are driving enterprises to
seek cleaner electricity supplies. In order to better ensure the competitive advantage of
product exporting enterprises and accelerate China’s transformation into a powerful
country in automobile manufacturing, safeguard measures should be formed on the
supply side of green resources.
In terms of important metals and recycled materials, the introduction and innova-
tion of industrial policies and the management of the entire industrial chain are taken
as means to provide basic support for promoting the green and low-carbon trans-
formation and the coordination of strategic mineral resources guarantee. According
to the forecast of the proportion of recycled nickel, cobalt and lithium used in the
production of new batteries, as shown in Fig. 7.4, the utilization rate of recycled
materials in the automotive industry will experience a rapid rise in the future, and
this indicator will become an important means to measure the low carbon perfor-
mance of a product. The realization of the global green and low-carbon transforma-
tion and carbon neutrality has strengthened the constraints of ecological protection
on resource supply. Moreover, the industrial policy competition plays an increas-
ingly important role in international competition, strategic metal resource guarantee
will gradually penetrate into the geopolitical field of industrial economy and super-
power games, and certainty factors in the supply chain will increase. The guarantee
of green resources should break through the scope of market supply targeting the
existing quantity, scale or cost. It is necessary to establish a sound industrial policy
to ensure the stability, safety and competitive advantages of the industrial chain,
so that the market can be effectively supported by the state, and long-term strategic
cooperations can be reached between high added value product exporting enterprises
and high-quality recycled material suppliers to ensure the priority supply of recycled
materials [1].
In terms of green power supply and trading, a “green channel” can be provided for
green power trading for exporting enterprises, to give priority to guaranteeing green
power trading for such enterprises. The supply of green power can greatly reduce the
carbon emissions of automobile products, especially battery electric vehicle prod-
ucts in the whole life cycle, and greatly increase the low-carbon competitiveness
of China’s products to be exported. China’s renewable energy consumption guar-
antee mechanism was launched in 2019 through the Notice on the Establishment and
Improvement of a Safeguard Mechanism for Renewable Electricity Consumption,
which implemented the legal requirements for the priority utilization of renewable
energy and established mandatory market share standards in accordance with the
law. In the first batch of domestic green power transactions in September 2021, the
green power purchased by BMW Brilliance, Beijing Benz and some parts enterprises
accounted for nearly half of the total transaction volume. Further offsetting the carbon
emissions generated in the production process through outsourcing green power has
become an important means for automobile upstream and downstream enterprises
to realize carbon reduction and decarburization. The purchase of green power in the
production process of an enterprise will help it implement the “dual carbon” goal in
subsequent production and operation, and obtain higher economic, social and envi-
ronmental benefits and values. In addition, in terms of green power transmission,
330 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

Fig. 7.4 Forecast of the proportion of recycled nickel, cobalt and lithium used in the production of
new batteries

wind power, photovoltaic power, hydropower and other energy sources in North-
west and North China have huge potential, and have sufficient space for alternatives
to traditional electricity. In 2020, China’s UHV transportation lines will achieve
180.37 billion kWh of electricity for 100% hydropower transportation, and 63.73
billion kWh of electricity for wind power, and photovoltaic power transportation,
both lower than 287.7 billion kWh of electricity for thermal power transportation.
The infrastructure for related power transmission is relatively complete and green
power transmission space is abundant.

7.1.2.2 Information Collection and Statistics Mechanism for Industrial

Supply Chain

The realization of carbon neutrality in the automotive industry is not solely based
on the efforts of the vehicle enterprises. The upstream suppliers of the industrial
chain play an important role in realizing carbon reduction and decarbonization. The
strength of the supply chain and suppliers’ carbon reduction capabilities directly
affects the effect of coordinated decarbonization of the entire industrial chain of
automobile enterprises. The carbon reductions of enterprises in the whole life cycle
and the due diligence of suppliers have become one of the means to respond to
compliance requirements and enhance their own low-carbon competitiveness. On
the basis of environmental information disclosure by all parties, the establishment of
a complete information collection and statistics mechanism and a clear and complete
environmental information database and carbon emission database in downstream
enterprises is necessary, and the establishment of unified and effective supply chain
7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 331

management strategies and carbon reduction strategies has become the new focus of
policy support.
At the present stage, less attention to secondary and tertiary indirect suppliers
is paid by a considerable number of manufacturing enterprises. Even if they carry
out risk assessment, they may focus more on direct business topics such as quality
and price, while less attention is paid to the risk on environmental compliance and
other aspects, and the data statistics of carbon emission and emission reduction
management are only intended for the OEMs and first-tier suppliers, resulting in that
the potential environmental risks and carbon emissions risks of suppliers cannot be
fully evaluated and resolved. In addition, in the process of supplier risk assessment,
due to the large number of suppliers and scattered risk information, the assessment
data collection faces a long cycle and more difficulty, which causes difficulties in the
low-carbon, green and sustainable management of the supply chain.
The main emissions of the automotive industry originate from upstream multi-tier
suppliers, but generally, the carbon emission data of the suppliers are not directly
under the jurisdiction of the OEMs. Although the carbon emissions of materials and
parts are not directly controlled by the OEMs, the carbon emissions from materials
and parts are the relative responsibility of the OEMs. Therefore, for automobile
enterprises that conduct carbon emission accounting, data statistics and emission
reduction measures cannot be limited to the enterprise level and first-tier supplier
level, and should thread throughout the entire supply chain. Based on this back-
ground, the China Industrial Carbon Emissions Information System (CICES) has
been built according to the idea of establishing a collection and statistics mecha-
nism for carbon emission information in the industrial supply chain. As shown in
Fig. 7.5, various enterprises in the automotive industry have jointly developed the
unified carbon emission data reporting form and reporting specifications to stan-
dardize the content and methods of carbon emission data collection and reporting,
avoiding the interaction difficulties caused by different forms of data sources, and the
accounting and auditing difficulties caused by data sources of different calibers. The
entire industrial chain has a unified pace, which has greatly promoted the circulation
and accumulation of carbon emission data, and is of great significance to carbon
emission management from the perspective of the whole life cycle and improving
the low-carbon competitiveness of products.

7.1.2.3 Development of a Green and Low-Carbon Technology Library

for the Automotive Industry

Low-carbon technologies refer to technologies that are based on the clean and effi-
cient use of energy and resources, and are characterized by the reduction or elimina-
tion of CO2 emissions. In a broad sense, they also refer to technologies characterized
by the reduction or elimination of other greenhouse gas emissions. According to the
emission reduction mechanism, low-carbon technologies can be divided into zero-
carbon technology, carbon reduction technology and carbon storage technology;
according to technical characteristics, low-carbon technologies can be divided into
332 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

Fig. 7.5 CICES architecture

non-fossil energy technology, fuel and raw material substitution technology, process
and other non-CO2 emission reduction technologies, carbon capture, utilization and
storage technology and carbon sink technology. In recent years, thanks to the contin-
uous improvement of top-level design and the multi-dimensional and full-coverage
industrial low-carbon development system formed in different fields, China’s indus-
trial energy conservation and carbon reduction have achieved remarkable results, and
the coverage of low-carbon technology upgrades has increased significantly, playing
an important role in tackling climate change and sustainable development.
As of March 2022, China has issued several batches of Directory of National Key
Promoted Low-carbon Technologies and Directory of Promoted Green Technologies,
covering key industries and fields such as power, steel, petrochemical, chemical, new
energy, and transportation, so as to guide the transformation of green development,
as shown in Table 7.7. The current technology directory has covered most of the
industrial chain in the automotive industry. However, in the context of rapid updates
in the automotive industry and continuous technological upgrading, some emerging
technologies have not yet been included, that is, information updates are untimely
and inaccurate, making it difficult to guide the rapid development and continuous
transformation of the industry; meanwhile, since detailed low-carbon technologies
that meet the characteristics of the industry are in shortage, a proprietary low-carbon
technology library that conforms to industry characteristics and development trends
is urgently needed for the automotive industry [2] and [3, 4].
The establishment of a low-carbon technology library in the automotive industry
has a significant role in promoting the development of the industry:
1. Strengthen the government’s leading role in the industry. The Opinions on
the Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New Devel-
opment Concept to Do a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality points
out that it is necessary to “strengthen the breakthrough and promotion and appli-
cation of major green and low-carbon technologies, promote energy-saving and
low-carbon technologies, and establish innovation service platform for green
and low-carbon technologies”. The Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan proposes
7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 333

to “build a market-oriented green technology innovation system and implement

green technology innovation breakthrough actions”. Technology path guidance
is one of the important means for establishing an industrial system with low-
carbon characteristics in the transportation industry, and promoting low-carbon
new processes, new technologies and new equipment featuring great emission
reduction potential, advancement and application, maturity and reliability, and
good social comprehensive benefits. It is also a favorable basis for formulating
preferential fiscal and tax policies.
2. Standardize the market-oriented promotion and application of green and
low-carbon technologies. Although China’s low-carbon development has been

Table 7.7 Contents related to the automotive industry in the low-carbon technology directories
issued by relevant departments in China (part)
Technical name Scope of application Overall benefits
Vehicle fuel purification and Transport vehicles/non-mobile Based on the national gasoline
efficiency enhancement pollution source treatment consumption of 120 million
technology based on improved tons and national diesel
combustion and lubrication consumption of 150 million
performances tons in 2019, the annually
saved standard coal is about
11.85 million tons and the
reduced CO2 emissions is
about 31.52 million tons
New energy vehicle New energy vehicles The carbon emission is
all-aluminum body 112kgCO2 /vehicle; the energy
manufacturing technology consumption in the
manufacturing process is
11.9kgce/vehicle; the energy
consumption in the driving
process is 9.7kWh/100 km
Production technology using Transport vehicles Based on the national gasoline
gasoline and diesel detergent consumption of 120 million
synergist tons and national diesel
consumption of 150 million
tons in 2019, the annually
saved standard coal is about
10.27 million tons and the
reduced CO2 emissions is
about 27.3182 million tons
High-efficiency and New energy vehicles The efficiency of the new
energy-saving SiC power energy vehicle motor
devices and key technologies controller system is 99%.
for modules Promote the development of
renewable energy such as solar
energy and wind energy, and
reduce greenhouse gas and
harmful gas emissions
(continued)
334 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

Table 7.7 (continued)

Technical name Scope of application Overall benefits
High-value comprehensive Resource recycling Improve the economic value of
recycling technology for the recycling of
decommissioned batteries decommissioned batteries, and
extract raw materials such as
iron phosphate, lithium
carbonate, graphite, etc., and
increase the added value of
products by 40%, which
greatly alleviates the shortage
of raw materials for batteries
and realizes resource recycling
High-efficiency discharge Lithium-ion battery The electric energy discharged
feedback battery formation production by the battery is fed back to the
technology local DC bus to be provided to
other charging equipment.
When the electric energy
discharged by the battery is
greater than the electric energy
required by the charging
equipment, the inverter is used
to invert the internal public
grid of the enterprise, and the
inverted electric energy is
returned to the grid
Hybrid technology Hybrid vehicle Regenerative braking energy
recovery technology; idle
elimination technology;
high-efficiency hybrid special
engine technology; vehicle
integration and vehicle control
strategy optimization and
matching technology, etc. It is
expected to achieve an average
annual emission reduction of
5.54 million tCO2 in the next
five years

put on the fast track at this stage, the problems of unclear understanding of
the concept of low-carbon technologies and the lack of standardized assess-
ment methods for emission reduction potential still exist. Some traditional high-
emission and high-energy consumption technologies are also included in low-
carbon technology sequence. Relevant technology libraries with industry charac-
teristics can provide normative guidance for the use of technologies by industry
enterprises, and clearly delineate technology concepts, which can effectively
guide the understanding of low-carbon technology concepts from all walks of
life.
7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 335

3. Help international cooperation in addressing climate change and trade. The

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Kyoto Protocol and
other documents make it clear that the transfer and provision of advanced tech-
nologies that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions to developing countries is an
important responsibility and obligation of developed countries. The low-carbon
technology library of the automotive industry covers the advanced and applicable
low-carbon technologies with great potential for greenhouse gas emission reduc-
tions in China’s industries, which will provide an important basis for the coopera-
tion between China and developed countries in the low-carbon field, and serve as
the technology support for exchanges such as South-South cooperation. Besides,
products using advanced low-carbon technology will have stronger international
market competitiveness, which can help China’s automobile products to further
participate in the external circulation of international trade.
The automotive industry features a long industrial chain, a wide range, rapid
growth in total carbon emissions, and high carbon intensity of a single vehicle,
which requires low-carbon management from the raw material production to the
product use and recycling. Achievement of high-quality development of green and
low-carbon industry depends on the joint efforts of various enterprises. In summary,
the low-carbon development policy recommendations for the automotive industry
can be classified as: (1) formulate and implement carbon emission standards for
the entire life cycle of automobiles, helping clarify the boundaries of carbon emis-
sions of the automotive industry in the China’s carbon emission reduction plan, and
the positioning, responsibilities and goals of carbon emission reduction in the auto-
motive industry; (2) improve policies that are conducive to the management and
control of automobile carbon emissions, and form a low-carbon policy toolkit for
the automotive industry; (3) promote the formation of joint forces of “government-
industry-university-research”, through technology incubation, speed up the selection
and implementation of clean energy, green manufacturing and other technologies,
and the recycle raw materials; (4) further increase support for the use of new energy
vehicles, such as financial, fiscal and taxation management measures, and further
encourage low-carbon product consumption.

7.1.2.4 Disclosure System of Carbon Footprint Information

of Automobile Products

The automotive industry is a pillar industry of China’s national economy. It features

a long industrial chain and a wide range. It is an important means for promoting the
emission reduction of upstream and downstream industrial chains. Internationally,
China has become a major exporter of automobiles, and a competitive carbon emis-
sion level will be an important support for China’s automotive industry to break the
global carbon trade barriers and become a strong automobile exporter. The disclo-
sure system of carbon emission information of automobile products has become an
important policy tool for global carbon emission management. The establishment
336 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

of a government-led disclosure system of vehicle carbon footprint information has

become an international development trend. On the consumer side, with the contin-
uous deepening of China’s low-carbon concept propaganda, the low-carbon level will
become an important indicator for consumers to measure products. It is also necessary
for China to integrate the existing vehicle carbon emission data, achieve “knowing
fairly well” in the management of the industry, and explore the establishment of
disclosure system of vehicle carbon footprint.
At present, the basic work of carbon footprint disclosure has been basically
completed: (1) the construction of the data system of carbon emissions of the whole
industry has been accelerated. Through the three-step measures of unified accounting
method, unified data specification, and unified reporting platform, the local carbon
emission data system of the automotive industry has been rapidly established, so that
the accounting methods and system boundaries of the life cycle carbon emissions
of passenger vehicles in the industry are unified, and the problem of information
asymmetry has been preliminarily solved. (2) A consensus has been formed on
data reporting specifications. China’s automotive industry has jointly researched and
formulated a unified carbon emission data reporting form and specification, and has
unified requirements for the content and methods of carbon emission data collection
and reporting, avoiding accounting and auditing difficulties caused by data sources
of different calibers. The entire industrial chain has formed a unified pace, which
has greatly promoted the circulation and accumulation of carbon emission data. (3)
The data reporting platform has been put into operation. The CICES can effectively
promote the co-construction and co-management of the basic carbon data platform,
and promote the improvement of the carbon emission management capability of the
entire industrial chain and the maturity and improvement of the construction of the
data system, so as to truly realize that carbon emission data can be calculated, traced,
circulated and trusted, effectively solve the problems of upstream data loss and collec-
tion difficulties faced by industrial enterprises in carbon emission accounting, and
provide effective support for the formulation of product carbon footprint information
management and disclosure system.
It has become the consensus of the automotive industry to speed up the manage-
ment of carbon emissions in the whole life cycle, to respond to the national carbon
neutrality goal, and to break through the carbon barriers to international trade. China’s
automobile carbon footprint information disclosure system will follow the idea of
pilot first, voluntary disclosure, and gradual transition, as shown in Fig. 7.6, to build a
management system guided by the State Council, jointly implemented and supervised
by ministries and commissions, and supported by technical specifications.
The following work will be done:
1. Carry out the pilot program of voluntary disclosure. At this stage, voluntary
information reporting and third-party accounting support are taken as the imple-
mentation principles, and pilot work is carried out with light-duty passenger
vehicles as the implementation object. First, an accounting notice is issued to
collect data from enterprises, and after verification, the annual verification of
7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 337

Fig. 7.6 Implementation idea of the carbon footprint information disclosure system of automobile
products

automobile carbon footprint information will be disclosed as a basis for valida-

tion of the information of enterprises and institutions. Finally, after there is no
problem fed back from the enterprises, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment
will publish an annual disclosure on the carbon footprint of automobile products
covering vehicle model, curb mass, fuel type, carbon footprint, accounting time,
and accounting system boundaries on the official website of the Ministry of
Ecology and Environment. On the post-event supervision side, an information
sampling inspection mechanism will be established simultaneously, and consis-
tency sampling inspection will be carried out on the carbon footprint information
of automobile products that is regularly disclosed every year or will be verified
based on reporting clues, and the results will be notified to the public.
2. Strengthen the supporting policy and technology system. By summarizing
the pilot experience, further improve the automobile carbon footprint informa-
tion disclosure system in terms of system requirements, enterprise management
and technical documents, including improving the relevant policy management
systems such as automobile product carbon footprint information disclosure
requirements and automobile product carbon footprint information disclosure
technical specifications to ensure that the requirements, formats and calibers are
unified. The disclosure of carbon footprint information is included in the environ-
mental information disclosure report of enterprises in the automotive industry, so
as to urge enterprises to establish a carbon footprint information accounting and
disclosure team in the governance process, and effectively regulate the credibility
and professionalism of information sources. When the time comes, gradually
realize transition from voluntary disclosure to mandatory disclosure.
3. Make multi-dimensional incentives for the development of low-carbon auto-
mobile enterprises. Disclosure of environmental information of the automotive
industry and of carbon footprint information of automobile products is a favorable
measure for further management of the supply chain. The disclosure of environ-
mental information of the automotive industry can ensure the transparency and
openness of the sustainable development information of enterprises in the supply
chain, while the disclosure of carbon footprint information of automobile prod-
ucts can help support the traceability, query and auditability of product carbon
emission data. Both of them can either promote the environmental information
338 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

of China’s enterprises to accept public supervision, or help enterprises to fully

respond to the review of supply chain information in the external circulation.

7.1.2.5 Industry Environmental Information Disclosure

and Assessment System

Building an environmental information disclosure system has become an important

task to promote the modernization of China’s ecological environment governance
system and governance capacity, and an important implementation basis for the
transformation of the governance mode from administrative management to public
governance. In the context that ecological and environmental protection issues are
increasingly serious, and the topic of carbon peak and carbon neutrality has received
widespread attention, strengthening the primary responsibility of enterprises for
ecological and environmental protection and standardizing environmental informa-
tion disclosure activities are the powerful measures to control pollution emissions,
efficiently utilize resources, and improve environmental quality [5].
Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State
Council on the Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New
Development Concept to Do a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality
and Guiding Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Establishment of a
Sound Economic System with Green, Low-carbon and Circular Development empha-
size the concentration, completeness and verifiability of enterprise environmental
information. In 2021, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment successively issued
the Plan for the Reform of the Legal Disclosure System of Environmental Informa-
tion, the Administrative Measures for the Legal Disclosure of Enterprise Environ-
mental Information, and the Format Guidelines for the Legal Disclosure of Enter-
prise Environmental Information (hereinafter referred to as the “Format Guidelines”),
which clearly stated that by 2025, the mandatory disclosure system of environmental
information in China will be basically established.
According to the requirements in the relevant documents, from 2022, key enter-
prise and institutions that meet the requirements of the management measures shall
disclose their annual and interim reports on environmental information within a
specified time limit. Key enterprises are required to disclose at least eight types of
information, including enterprise environmental management information, pollutant
generation, governance and emission information, and carbon emission information.
Specific to the automotive industry, establishing an information disclosure system
with more detailed content and richer indicators has become one of the important
tasks to drive upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry to synchronously
carry out emission reduction and promote the green, low-carbon and high-quality
development of the industry. The environmental information that can be disclosed is
shown in Table 7.8. Carbon emission is one of the topics that enterprises need to pay
attention to. The difference between the automotive industry and other key indus-
tries is that automobile products also generate a large amount of CO2 during the use
process. Since the emphasis of environmental information disclosure should also be
7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 339

laid on carbon emissions during production, use, and transportation, a complete CO2
information disclosure system should be established, which can drive the disclosure
of different types of environmental information [6].

7.1.2.6 Formulation of Fiscal and Tax Policies for Carbon Emission

of Automotive Industry

In the “1 + N” system, the top documents Opinions on the Complete, Accurate and
Comprehensive Implementation of the New Development Concept to Do a Good Job
in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality and Action Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peaking
Before 2030 propose to establish and improve a tax policy system that is conducive
to green and low-carbon development, so as to give better play to the role of taxation
in promoting the green and low-carbon development of market entities. Improving
fiscal and tax policies is an important means to support and motivate the automotive
industry to carry out green R&D and innovation, and is also an important part of
climate strategies of all countries. At present, China has preferential policies for
energy-saving and new energy vehicles to a relatively greater extent. The fiscal and
tax incentive policies have supported the development of the automotive industry to
a certain extent, but most of them are reflected at the vehicle level. For low-carbon
technology, green innovation and other links, there are few incentives, and the feasible
incentives are not yet clear. For example, the policy of “additional tax deductions
for enterprise research and development” in enterprise income tax has played a role
in increasing enterprise cash flow and encouraging enterprise R&D innovation to
a certain extent, but in actual implementation, the “green innovation” factors have
been ignored, and the technologies such as green and low-carbon manufacturing
are not taken into account. The proportion of pre-tax deduction of research and
development expenses for automobile manufacturers and auto parts manufacturers
whose automobile CO2 emissions are lower than a certain amount can be increased
to provide supportive policies for the realization of low-carbon development of the
automotive industry and China’s achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality
[7].
In terms of fiscal and tax subsidies, the following aspects can be considered
to improve the fiscal subsidies for the automotive industry: 1. Subsidy structure.
At present, China’s fiscal subsidies support the industry through direct investment,
and a relatively single subsidy structure is not conducive to giving full play to the
capacity for industry growth. In this regard, the proportion of direct investment can
be reduced, the subsidy methods that can play a guiding role should be strengthened,
to promote the diversification of subsidy methods. 2. Subsidy link. Fiscal subsidy
can be extended from the production and sales links to all links in the industrial
chain, so as to form the linkage development of the industrial chain and reduce CO2
emissions in the entire industrial chain of automobile raw material acquisition, parts
and vehicle manufacturing, and fuel production. In the R&D link, green innovation
of core low-carbon technologies for automobiles can be encouraged, to improve the
overall technical level of vehicle enterprises and parts enterprises. In the market
340 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

Table 7.8 Discloseable items of environmental information in the automotive industry

S/N Disclosure direction Content overview
1 Table of contents and definitions Report title page content, report definitions
2 Summary of key environmental Explanation of material disclosures
information
3 Basic information of enterprises Basic information of enterprise operations,
including business information, product
information, production technology, etc
4 Enterprise environmental management Enterprises comply with ecological
information environment legal management information,
enterprise entire industrial chain
environmental management strategy, green
manufacturing system construction
information, management system
construction and third-party certification
information
5 Enterprise energy resource consumption Enterprise energy/water management
information initiatives, energy/water resource
consumption, energy/water resource intensity
6 Pollutant generation, treatment and The generation, treatment and discharge of
discharge information air pollutants and water pollutants in the
enterprise, the management of solid waste
and harmful substances, the treatment of
noise and dust, etc
7 Carbon emission information Plant boundary carbon emissions and trading
8 Material environmental information Management and content of VOCs and
prohibited substances used in materials, use
of recycled and degradable materials, product
lightweight, and use of green materials
9 Product environmental information Vehicle use energy consumption, product
exhaust emissions, vehicle VOC content,
vehicle driving noise, and product life cycle
carbon emissions
10 Distribution system environmental Green packaging, green transportation, green
information warehousing, and dealer management
information
11 Product recycling environmental Product recycling management, reusability
information and recycling rate, battery traceability,
dismantling information disclosure,
remanufactured parts use information
12 Mandatory clean production audit Enterprise information on mandatory clean
information production audit
13 Ecological environment emergency Information on the occurrence of ecological
information environment accidents in the enterprise and
facing heavily polluted weather
(continued)
7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 341

Table 7.8 (continued)

S/N Disclosure direction Content overview
14 Ecological environment law violation Enterprise ecological environment law and
information rule violation information
15 Interim report of the current year Information required for temporary report in
the Administrative Measures for the Legal
Disclosure of Enterprise Environmental
Information
16 Ecological environment protection Ecological environment protection
information related to investment and information when the enterprise conducts
financing investment and financing activities that
comply with the management measures

promotion link, subsidies can be given to the participants of the business model, and
support can be given to various innovative operation modes of automotive industry.
In terms of tax, the automotive industry can be considered as a pilot industry
for implementation of the carbon tax policy. The carbon pricing mechanism mainly
includes carbon emission trading mechanism and carbon tax mechanism. The carbon
emission trading mechanism establishes a policy-based market in the form of “total
emissions control and quota allocation”, where emission control units can freely buy
and sell quotas, and the carbon price is determined by the market. The carbon tax
policy is intended to levy taxes on emission control units based on the carbon content
or carbon emissions of consuming fossil fuels. Through taxation, the environmental
costs caused by CO2 emissions are internalized into production and operation costs,
and the tax rate is set by the government. The European Union, California, South
Korea, New Zealand and other countries or regions have established carbon trading
markets, mainly covering energy-intensive industries such as power industry, petro-
chemical industry, and aluminum industry. Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, the
United Kingdom, Japan and other countries have introduced carbon taxes, which is
mainly reflected in the transportation sector, such as transportation fuels or motor
vehicle carbon emissions, and achieved good emission reduction results. In addition,
some developed countries are exploring the establishment of a carbon tariff system
based on the domestic carbon pricing mechanism, and it is expected that the national
trade pattern will undergo major changes. The European Union has published a draft
Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, proposing that all goods under the European
Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) should be subject to carbon tariffs, which
currently include cement, electricity, fertilizers, steel and aluminium. In the revised
draft of the European Parliament, it is recommended to add hydrogen and plastics
and their products, and to include indirect emissions into the accounting scope. It is
expected that the scope of products may be further expanded in the future, including
downstream products, which will have a greater impact on international trade.
It can be seen from the successful international experience that the carbon pricing
mechanism will have a positive effect on carbon emission reduction in the automotive
industry. With the increase in the production, sales and ownership of automobiles,
342 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

the carbon emissions of the automotive industry have grown rapidly, and it is of great
significance to implement a carbon pricing mechanism in the automotive industry.
However, the carbon emission sources of the automotive industry are relatively scat-
tered, and joining the carbon trading market features great difficulty, many processes
and high operating costs. The carbon tax collection process is simple and easy to
operate, and it is more suitable for industries such as the automotive industry where
emission sources are scattered and low in concentration. Therefore, the research of
tax policy, promotion of internalization of emission reduction costs, and promotion
of the positive transfer of resources in the automotive industry which is taken as
a pilot industry can promote carbon emission reduction in the automotive industry,
improve the low-carbon competitiveness of automobile products, expand the automo-
bile export market, and promote the automotive industry to develop in a high-quality
manner, and in the meanwhile, it can form a radiation driving effect, and provide
reference for the whole industry to carry out carbon tax policy research. Researching
and formulating carbon tax policies for the automotive industry is not only a key
choice to deal with international carbon trade barriers, but also an important part of
promoting the realization of China’s “ carbon peak and carbon neutrality” goals [8].

7.2 Strategic Points for Low-Carbon Development

of the Automotive Industry

7.2.1 Speeding Up the Process of Decarbonization

of the Power Structure

The cleanliness of electricity has a crucial impact on the low-carbon development

of the automotive industry. In recent years, China has been vigorously developing
hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic power and other renewable power to promote
the low-carbon and clean transformation of the power structure. By the end of
2020[1], hydropower generation, wind power generation, photovoltaic power gener-
ation accounted for 18%, 6% and 3%, respectively. However, China’s power structure
is still dominated by thermal power, and the supply of green power is insufficient. In
particular, wind power and photovoltaic power still have great development poten-
tial, resulting in a high carbon emission factor of China’s power. The proportion
of thermal power in Europe and the United States is relatively low, accounting for
less than 30%, the proportion of renewable power generation is relatively high, and
the carbon emission factor of power generation is lower than that of China. At the
present stage, indirect carbon emissions from power generation are gradually being
included in the accounting scope for accounting for the carbon emissions of enter-
prises and products. In the revised draft of the European Parliament’s EU’s Carbon
Border Adjustment Mechanism, it is recommended that indirect emissions, including
that from the power production, be included in the accounting scope for accounting
for carbon emissions from regulated products. Besides, in the draft of the Regulation
7.2 Strategic Points for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 343

Concerning Batteries and Waste Batteries issued by the EU, a series of requirements
are put forward for the carbon footprint of batteries. The batteries that do not meet the
requirements will not be allowed to enter the EU market or be used in the EU market.
In the future, the cleanliness of the power structure will likely become an important
factor affecting the development of new energy vehicles in China. Therefore, it is
particularly important to further accelerate the decarbonization process of the power
structure.
Due to the superior endowment of coal resources in China, thermal power is
dominant in China’s power structure. In the past, the mainstream technology paths
and infrastructure were mainly matched with the thermal power system. The coal
power generation technology is stable and the power generation cost is low. For a
period of time in the future, in order to ensure stable power supply, orderly produc-
tion and life, and to ease the pressure brought about by the transformation of clean
electricity, coal and other fossil energy sources will still be the main energy supply
for China’s power generation. Therefore, it is necessary to take various measures to
improve the cleanliness of coal power while the proportion of renewable power is
gradually increased. In accordance with the principle of “controlling the increment
and optimizing the stock”, the role of coal-fired power safety underpinning should
be brought into play in order to develop advanced production capacity as a focus,
and moderately increase the scale of coal-fired power generation. it is also neces-
sary to build a clean electricity supply system, increase the green power plants and
corresponding supporting facilities, and accelerate the construction of smart grids. It
is necessary, according to the characteristics of energy resource endowment in each
region, to comprehensively promote the large-scale development of wind power
generation and photovoltaic power generation, and carry out demonstration appli-
cations of distributed photovoltaic power generation. For example, focus on major
rivers in the southwest region of China, actively promote the construction of large
hydropower bases, and vigorously develop wind and solar energy in the northwest
region of China. Build inter-regional and inter-provincial power transmission chan-
nels, optimize the inter-regional allocation of energy resources, improve the regional
flow of renewable power, and coordinate the supply and demand of clean electricity
between different regions.

7.2.2 Steady and Sound Promotion of the Development

of Vehicle Electrification

At the current stage, electrification has become one of the important ways to promote
the low-carbon and high-quality development of the automotive industry. Compared
with traditional fuel vehicles, BEVs have the advantage of carbon emission reduction
in the whole life cycle. Compared with gasoline vehicles and diesel vehicles, battery
electric passenger vehicles can reduce emissions by 43.3% and 58.2%, respectively;
plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles have the next highest carbon emission reduction
344 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

potential, with emission reductions of 19.2% and 40.5%, respectively. In order to

reduce the carbon emissions of the automotive industry, each country has introduced
electrification targets. On July 14, 2021, the European Union published a revised draft
of the CO2 emissions for passenger vehicles and light-duty commercial vehicles. The
draft proposes that by 2035, the carbon emissions of passenger vehicles and light-
duty commercial vehicles will drop by 100% compared with 2021, which means that
by 2035, fuel vehicles will withdraw from the EU market and BEVs will usher in a
comprehensive development era. Since the Biden administration came to power, the
United States has greatly increased its support for new energy vehicles and related
industries. In August 2021, the United States signed an executive order requiring the
United States to achieve a 50% electrification rate by 2030. On November 19, the
House of Representatives passed a 1.7 trillion stimulus bill to substantially increase
subsidies for new energy vehicles and abolish subsidy restrictions. China has issued
a dual-credit policy to encourage the development of new energy vehicles. This
policy requires that the credit proportion of new energy vehicles in 2019, 2020,
2021, 2022, and 2023 be 10%, 12%, 14%, 16% and 18%, respectively, and guides
traditional vehicle enterprises to develop new energy vehicle layout and release the
development potential of new energy vehicles. Under the guidance of this policy,
vehicle enterprises have also taken electrification as the key development direction
in the future. New vehicle manufacturers and joint venture brands have increased
the development of BEVs and plug-in hybrid vehicles, improved the product matrix,
and promoted the gradual diversification of product spectrums.
However, with the vigorous development of electrification, a series of problems
such as intensified competition among electric vehicle enterprises, shortage of key
raw material resources such as nickel, cobalt, and lithium required for batteries,
and rising raw material costs have become more prominent. In addition, the EU’s
Regulation Concerning Batteries and Waste Batteries has put forward requirements
on the carbon footprint, the utilization and content of recycled materials, material
recycling efficiency, due diligence of batteries, etc., which poses challenges for the
development of new energy vehicles in China, and requires the government and
automobile enterprises to take timely and effective measures to deal with changes in
domestic and foreign situations The government should do a good job in basic guaran-
tees, formulate scientific and reasonable standards, policies, development plans, and
fiscal measures to guide the low-carbon and high-quality development of China’s
new energy vehicles and broaden the competitive advantage of the product in the
market. In addition, the government should also improve the infrastructure such as
charging piles, promote the construction and standardized management of public
charging piles, improve the convenience of charging new energy vehicles, solve
fundamental problems such as difficulty in charging of consumers, and extend the
application scenarios of new energy vehicles. Since the new energy vehicles get the
rapid development at the current stage, and relevant domestic and foreign policies
change frequently, the enterprises should continue to pay attention to the trends of
carbon emission policies in the domestic and foreign automotive industries, adjust
their business layout in a timely manner, and improve their ability to respond to rele-
vant domestic and foreign policies. The enterprises should also increase investment in
7.2 Strategic Points for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 345

R&D of new energy vehicles, strive to achieve key technological breakthroughs, and
improve the quality of new energy vehicles. Besides, since the upstream supply chain
of new energy vehicles has received increasing attention, especially the sustainable
supply capacity of the supply chain, the enterprises should do a good job in early
warning in a timely manner to prevent or reduce the risks caused by shortage or high
costs of key raw materials.

7.2.3 Speeding Up the Construction of Resource Recycling

System

The development of circular economy is a major strategy for China’s economic and
social development. It is of great significance to safeguarding China’s resource secu-
rity, promoting the realization of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, and promoting
the construction of ecological civilization to speed up the recycling of raw mate-
rials, vigorously develop the circular economy, promote the economical and inten-
sive utilization of resources, and build a resource recycling-based industrial system
and a waste material recycling system. At present, the supply of high-quality recy-
cled materials in China is limited, and it is difficult to meet the requirements of
low-carbon development of enterprises. Firstly, the situation of resource recovery in
China is not optimistic. Based on the recycling of the top ten Chinese varieties of
renewable resources in 2019, the recycling of waste tyres and waste glass, which
are closely related to the automotive industry, have a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%
and 5.4%, respectively compared with 2018 [2]. Secondly, the recycling level and
production scale of recycled material suppliers are relatively low, and it is difficult to
meet the automotive industry’s demand for high-quality recycled materials. Taking
some recycled materials as an example, the market share of domestic recycled steel,
aluminum and copper in recent years is about 25, 40 and 30% of the EU’s market
share (calculated by CATARC-ADC). Promoting the scale of the recycling industry
and improving the level of recycling technology can ensure the supply of recycled
materials in the automotive industry.
Firstly, establish the quality and carbon emission reduction assessment standards
for recycled materials to ensure the standard basis and benign policy environment for
the automotive recycling industry. Promote the large-scale, standardized and clean
utilization of renewable resources, promote the agglomeration and development of
renewable resources industries, improve the standardization level of the industry,
promote the concentration of resources to advantageous enterprises, and solve the
problems of insufficient production capacity and small scale of recycled materials.
Secondly, establish a sound automobile recycling system, including the formulation
of mandatory recycling policies, the establishment of recycling outlets, the issuance
of professional recycling qualifications, etc., continue to carry out the pilot extension
of producer responsibility, strengthen the supervision of automobile recycling, and
improve the transparency of the whole process of scrapping, dismantling, processing,
346 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

recycling materials, and launching on the market. Finally, encourage recycling enter-
prises to devote greater effort to technological innovation in resource extraction,
promote the promotion and application of new technologies, new processes, and
new equipment, support standardized recycling enterprises to improve the quality of
their process equipment and transformation, promote intelligent and refined disman-
tling, guarantee the quality and level of recycled materials, and improve the recycling
rate of key raw materials such as nickel, cobalt, lithium, and aluminum.

7.2.4 Promotion of the Use of Hydrogen Fuel and Other

Low-Carbon Alternative Fuels

Under the goals of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality”, the transformation and
substitution of the energy structure is crucial. Hydrogen energy is regarded as a
bridge of transition and conversion between fossil energy and renewable energy. On
the one hand, the application of hydrogen fuel cells in the transportation industry
is expected to achieve zero carbon emission during vehicle operation; on the other
hand, due to the uneven temporal density of renewable energy, the use of surplus
renewable energy to produce hydrogen by electrolysis of water can effectively solve
storage and redistribution issues of renewable energy to improve energy utilization.
While for other low-carbon alternative fuels, such as hydrocarbon synthetic fuels,
CO2 is captured by direct air in the environment, and hydrogen is produced by elec-
trolysis of water through renewable energy. Hydrogen energy is compatible with
existing infrastructure and fleets, and is also a technical solution that can effectively
reduce carbon emissions in the transportation sector. In April 2020, the Energy Law
of the People’s Republic of China (Exposure Draft) issued by the National Energy
Administration mentioned priority should be given to the development of renewable
energy, the development and application of new fuels and industrial raw materials
to replace oil and gas should be supported, and hydrogen energy should be included
into the energy category. In the future, a variety of alternative energy technology
paths will be paralleled in the transportation sector, and the introduction of rele-
vant incentive policies will help alternative fuels get out of the “valley of death” of
scientific research achievements. Firstly, build diversified application scenarios of
alternative fuels. Through the promotion of subsidy policies, including fuel vehicle
promotion subsidies, demonstration application subsidies and other policy supports,
create more alternative fuel technology application scenarios, increase the demand
for alternative fuels, and speed up the formation of the industry. Secondly, build a
clean supply system for alternative fuels. Promote the consumption of clean energy
such as hydrogen energy, encourage the promotion of technology paths such as elec-
tric hydrogen production in areas rich in clean energy, expand local consumption
space, improve local consumption capacity, and increase the supply of alternative
fuels. Thirdly, build a basic guarantee system for alternative fuels. Strengthen the
planning and construction of infrastructure for alternative fuels such as hydrogen
7.2 Strategic Points for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 347

refueling stations, improve storage and transportation efficiency, optimize distribu-

tion and delivery systems, and improve the flexibility of storage and transportation
of alternative fuels. Improve the management system of alternative fuels such as
hydrogen energy, clarify the centralized management department, establish relevant
standard systems and institutional norms concerning safe production and use.

7.2.5 Advocating New Modes of Low-Carbon Mobility

for Residents

Low-carbon mobility modes such as public transportation, bicycles, and shared

bicycles have obvious energy-saving and emission-reduction benefits. Advocating
low-carbon mobility plays an important role in alleviating traffic congestion and
promoting carbon emission reduction in the automotive industry. Firstly, establish a
good basic guarantee mechanism for low-carbon mobility. Fully tap the existing road
resources, provide more space for low-carbon mobility based on the road space redis-
tribution mechanism, protect the road rights of non-power-driven vehicles such as
bicycles and electric bicycles, and encourage residents to adopt low-carbon mobility
modes within a short distance. Make full use of the big data of residents’ mobility,
combine a variety of vehicle models and flexible scheduling strategies, strengthen
the resource integration and data sharing among different public transport modes,
respond on demand, dynamically adjust routes and stations, facilitate residents’ use
of public transport mobility modes, and improve the matching degree of transporta-
tion capacity supply and mobility demand. Secondly, encourage residents to adopt
low-carbon mobility modes in various ways. For example, bestow value on energy
saving and carbon reduction behaviors of citizens and small and micro enterprises
by establishing a personal mobility “carbon account” and using a unified quanti-
tative method and standard to evaluate the emission reductions of residents’ low-
carbon mobility modes such as walking, cycling, and taking public transportation. In
2020, the Chengdu Municipal Government issued the Implementation Opinions on
Building a “Chengdu Carbon Inclusion” Mechanism, and it proposed the dual-path
construction idea of “public carbon emission reduction credits and project carbon
emission reduction development and operation” for the first time. At present, the
“Chengdu Carbon Inclusion” green public welfare platform has been launched.
Different scenarios such as green mobility, water saving and electricity saving have
been developed, and low-carbon assessment standards for catering, supermarkets,
etc. have been formulated to fully stimulate the positivity of the public and small and
micro enterprises to save energy and reduce carbon emissions. Recently, the “Zhe-
jiang Carbon Inclusion” platform developed and built by the Zhejiang Provincial
Development and Reform Commission has been officially launched in the “General
Office of the People’s Government of Zhejiang Province”. After residents select the
green and low-carbon scenario, low-carbon behaviors such as low-carbon mobility
348 7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

and online handling in daily life will be recorded, and carbon credits will be accumu-
lated, which effectively promotes residents’ sense of participation in carbon emission
reduction and sets up low-carbon mobility concept to guide residents to choose more
low-carbon mobility modes.

7.2.6 Speeding Up the Research and Development

of Negative Carbon Technologies

Negative carbon technology can achieve net absorption of carbon emissions, which is
of great significance for the realization of carbon neutrality goal. The so-called nega-
tive carbon technology refers to the practice or technology of removing CO2 from the
atmosphere, mainly including carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), carbon
sink and other negative carbon emission technologies. CCUS refers to a combination
of technologies related to the capture, utilization and storage of CO2 from industrial
processes, energy use or the atmosphere. The Special Report on Global Warming
of 1.5 °C (SR15) pointed out that the emission reductions by using CCUS in 2030
is expected to be 100 million to 400 million tons, and the emission reductions by
using CCUS in 2050 is 3 billion to 6.8 billion tons. CCUS becomes an feasible tech-
nology option for low-carbon transformation of the industry for which it is difficult
to realize decarbonization and can provide CO2 raw material for some industrial
production processes. Developed countries or regions such as the United States,
the European Union, and Japan are promoting the development of CCUS through
various measures. The United States has given fiscal support to the CCUS through the
45Q tax credit and the California government’s low-carbon fuel standard, which has
promoted the vigorous development of the CCUS. In 2020, 12 new CCUS commer-
cial projects were added, and the CCUS projects in operation account for about half
of the total number of global operating projects. According to the China Carbon
Dioxide Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) Annual Report (2021), there are
about 40 CCUS demonstration projects in operation or under construction in China,
with a capture capacity of 3 million tons per year. However, at present, China’s
CCUS projects are mainly demonstration projects. The project scale is small, the
direct economic cost is high, and there are certain environmental risks. Large-scale
commercial application scenarios have not yet been formed, and the potential advan-
tages of CCUS in China cannot be fully explored. Carbon sink plays an important role
in carbon emission reduction by absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere. Compared with
other negative carbon emission technologies, carbon sink has lower emission reduc-
tion costs and greater development potential. Recently, Zhejiang Province issued the
Opinions on the Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New
Development Concept to Do a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality,
which clearly proposed to consolidate and improve forestry carbon sink, promote
the development and utilization of marine carbon sinks, and carry out carbon sink
pilot projects.
References 349

At present, China’s CCUS and carbon sink development mechanism and related
theoretical methods need to be improved, resulting in CCUS and carbon sink tech-
nologies cannot effectively play a role in emission reductions. Therefore, it is neces-
sary to improve the basic theoretical research on monitoring, reporting and verifica-
tion methodologies and standards, construction, operation, supervision, and termi-
nation standard systems for CCUS and carbon sink emission reduction, so that the
project’s emission reduction effect can be quantitatively verified and compared,
laying a solid foundation for the improvement of carbon emission reduction capacity,
accurate monitoring and trading. Secondly, ensure the infrastructure construction of
negative carbon emission technologies such as CCUS and carbon sink, increase
the investment and construction scale of infrastructure for CO2 transportation and
storage, and standardize infrastructure management. By benchmarking foreign nega-
tive carbon emission technology incentive policies, explore and formulate tax and
subsidy incentive policies for negative carbon emission technologies that are in line
with China’s actual situation, and guarantee financial support for negative carbon
emission technologies. Finally, the emission reductions of certified CCUS and carbon
sink projects can be traded on demand, such as participating in the carbon trading
market through nationally certified voluntary emission reductions, so as to maximize
the potential of negative carbon technology research and development.

7.3 Summary and Outlook

This research focuses on the accounting and analysis of the life cycle carbon emis-
sions of passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles from three dimensions of single
vehicle, enterprises and fleets. It makes deep study of the current situation of China’s
automobile carbon emissions and the multi-scenario emission reduction potential
under different emission reduction paths and different emission reduction scenarios,
in order to provide reference for the carbon neutrality development of China’s auto-
motive industry. In the next step, we will continue to devote ourselves to the research
on china automobile low carbon action plan, and combine the development trend of
the industry to deepen the research on carbon neutrality in the automotive industry.

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[R] (2020)
3. Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People’s Republic of China, National Key
Promotion of low carbon technology List [Z] (2014)
4. National Development and Reform Commission, Green Technology Promotion Catalogue [Z]
(2020)
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5. Yin Hong, Practice and Suggestion of environmental information disclosure in the context of
carbon neutrality, Finance Economy [J] (2022)
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Appendix

See Tables 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6

Table 1 Material replacement and escape frequency (time(s))

No. Material name Applicable M1 vehicles other than Battery electric passenger vehicle
battery electric passenger vehicles
1 Tyre 1 1
2 Lead-acid battery 2 2
3 Lubricant 29 8
4 Brake fluid 2 2
5 Coolant 2 2
6 Refrigerant Escape once, replace once Escape once, replace once
7 Washer fluid 14 14

© China Machine Press 2023 351

Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd. et al.,
China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022),
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7502-8
352 Appendix

Table 2 Vehicle cycle-related carbon emission factors

No. Name Default values of carbon emission Unit
factors
1 Steel 2.38 kgCO2 e/kg
2 Cast iron 1.82 kgCO2 e/kg
3 Aluminium and aluminium alloys 16.38 kgCO2 e/kg
4 Magnesium and magnesium 39.55 kgCO2 e/kg
alloys
5 Copper and copper alloys 4.23 kgCO2 e/kg
6 Thermoplastics 3.96 kgCO2 e/kg
7 Thermosetting plastics 4.57 kgCO2 e/kg
8 Rubber 3.08 kgCO2 e/kg
9 Fabric 5.80 kgCO2 e/kg
10 Ceramic/glass 0.95 kgCO2 e/kg
11 Lead 2.74 kgCO2 e/kg
12 Sulphuric acid 0.10 kgCO2 e/kg
13 Glass fibre 8.91 kgCO2 e/kg
14 Lithium iron phosphate 2.93 kgCO2 e/kg
15 Lithium nickel cobalt manganate 17.40 kgCO2 e/kg
16 Lithium manganate 4.73 kgCO2 e/kg
17 Graphite 5.48 kgCO2 e/kg
18 Electrolyte: Lithium 19.60 kgCO2 e/kg
hexafluorophosphate
19 Lubricant 1.20 kgCO2 e/kg
20 Brake fluid 1.20 kgCO2 e/kg
21 Coolant 1.85 kgCO2 e/kg
22 Refrigerant 15.10 kgCO2 e/kg
23 Washer fluid 0.97 kgCO2 e/kg
24 Lithium nickel cobalt manganate 87.78 kgCO2 e/kWh
battery pack
25 Lithium iron phosphate battery 73.51 kgCO2 e/kWh
pack
26 Lithium manganate battery pack 67.90 kgCO2 e/kWh
27 Vehicle production 550 kgCO2 e/vehicle
Appendix 353

Table 3 Carbon emission factors of energy/fuel production

Energy/fuel name Carbon emission factors Unit Accounting boundary
of production
Average power supply of 0.635 kgCO2 e/kWh Including energy
the national grid extraction, power
production and power
delivery processes
Hydropower 0.035 kgCO2 e/kWh Including energy
extraction, power
production and power
delivery processes
Wind power 0.006 kgCO2 e/kWh Including energy
extraction, power
production and power
delivery processes
Nuclear power 0.014 kgCO2 e/kWh Including energy
extraction, power
production and power
delivery processes
Thermal power 0.971 kgCO2 e/kWh Including energy
extraction, power
production and power
delivery processes
PV power generation 0.048 kgCO2 e/kWh Including power
production process
Biomass power 0.230 kgCO2 e/kWh Including power
generation production process
Natural gas 0.07 kgCO2 e/m3 Including natural gas
extraction, processing
and transportation, with
the fugitive emissions
from the production
process not considered
Gasoline 0.487 kgCO2 e/L Including crude oil
extraction, processing
and transportation, with
the fugitive emissions
from the production
process not considered
Diesel 0.535 kgCO2 e/L Including crude oil
extraction, processing
and transportation, with
the fugitive emissions
from the production
process not considered
(continued)
354 Appendix

Table 3 (continued)
Energy/fuel name Carbon emission factors Unit Accounting boundary
of production
Coal 0.08 kgCO2 e/kg Including the raw coal
mining and washing,
with the spontaneous
combustion of coal and
the fugitive emission of
gas not considered
Low pressure steam 0.31 kgCO2 e/kg Use coal as energy for
(0.3 MPa) production, including
raw coal mining,
washing and
transportation, and
steam production using
boiler
Medium pressure steam 0.38 kgCO2 e/kg Use coal as energy for
(1 MPa) production, including
raw coal mining,
washing and
transportation, and
steam production using
boiler
Appendix 355

Table 4 Specific parameter values of common fossil fuels

Fuel variety Net calorific value Carbon content per Carbon oxidation
GJ/t, GJ/104 Nm3 calorific value rate (%)
(tCO2e/GJ)
Solid fuel Anthracite 26.700a 27.40 × 10−3b 94
Bituminous 19.570c 26.10 × 10−3b 93
coal
Lignite 11.900a 28.00 × 10−3b 96
Cleaned coal 26.344d 25.41 × 10−3b 90
Other washed 12.545d 25.41 × 10−3b 90
coal
Briquette 17.460c 33.60 × 10−3c 90
Coke 28.435c 29.50 × 10−3b 93
Liquid fuel Crude oil 41.816d 20.10 × 10−3b 98
Fuel 41.816d 21.10 × 10−3b 98
Gasoline 43.070d 18.90 × 10−3b 98
Diesel 42.652d 20.20 × 10−3b 98
General 43.070d 19.60 × 10−3b 98
kerosene
Liquified 51.44d 15.30 × 10−3b 98
natural gas
Liquefied 50.179d 17.20 × 10−3b 98
petroleum gas
Coal tar 33.453d 22.00 × 10−3a 98
Gas fuel Refinery dry 45.998d 18.20 × 10−3b 99
gas
Coke oven gas 179.81d 13.58 × 10−3b 99
Blast furnace 33.000c 70.80 × 10−3a 99
gas
Converter gas 84.000c 49.60 × 10−3c 99
Other gas 52.270d 12.20 × 10−3b 99
Natural gas 389.310d 15.30 × 10−3b 99
Source of data a selected from 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories;
Sourceof data b seletcted from Guidelines for Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventories (Trial Version);
Source of data c selected from Research on China’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory (2007);
Source of date d selected from China Energy YearBook.
356 Appendix

Table 5 Carbon Emissions per Unit Mileage of Passenger Vehicles (2021)

No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
1 Anhui Jianghuai Gasoline A0 SUV Refine S4 291.7
Automobile Group Corp.,
Ltd
2 Anhui Jianghuai Gasoline A MPV Refine M3 365.8
Automobile Group Corp.,
Ltd
3 Anhui Jianghuai Gasoline B Sedan Jiayue A5 303.9
Automobile Group Corp.,
Ltd
4 Anhui Jianghuai Gasoline B MPV Refine M4 408.5
Automobile Group Corp.,
Ltd
5 Anhui Jianghuai Diesel B MPV Refine M4 334.8
Automobile Group Corp.,
Ltd
6 Anhui Jianghuai Diesel B MPV Refine M5 359.7
Automobile Group Corp.,
Ltd
7 Anhui Jianghuai Battery A00 Sedan JAC iEV6E 165.5
Automobile Group Corp.,
Ltd
8 Anhui Jianghuai Battery A Sedan JAC iEVA50 188.8
Automobile Group Corp.,
Ltd
9 Beijing Benz Automobile Gasoline A Sedan Benz A 285.1
Co., Ltd
10 Beijing Benz Automobile Gasoline A Sedan Benz A 337.7
Co., Ltd AMG
11 Beijing Benz Automobile Gasoline A SUV Benz GLA 294.6
Co., Ltd
12 Beijing Benz Automobile Gasoline B Sedan Benz C 302.6
Co., Ltd
13 Beijing Benz Automobile Gasoline B SUV Benz GLB 309.5
Co., Ltd
14 Beijing Benz Automobile Gasoline B SUV Benz GLC 342.2
Co., Ltd
15 Beijing Benz Automobile Gasoline C Sedan Benz 323.5
Co., Ltd E-Class
16 Beijing Benz Automobile Plug-in C Sedan Benz 212.6
Co., Ltd hybrid E-Class
(continued)
Appendix 357

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
17 Beijing Benz Automobile Battery B SUV Benz EQC 245.1
Co., Ltd
18 Beijing Automotive Group Gasoline A0 SUV Beijing X3 290.3
Co., Ltd
19 Beijing Automotive Group Gasoline A Sedan Beijing U5 255.6
Co., Ltd
20 Beijing Automotive Group Gasoline A SUV Beijing 40L 459.6
Co., Ltd
21 Beijing Automotive Group Gasoline B SUV Beijing 80 458.3
Co., Ltd
22 Beijing Automotive Group Gasoline B SUV Beijing X7 302.6
Co., Ltd
23 Beijing Automotive Group Diesel A SUV Beijing 40L 415.5
Co., Ltd
24 Beijing Hyundai Motor Gasoline A0 Sedan Verna 211.5
Co., Ltd
25 Beijing Hyundai Motor Gasoline A0 Sedan Verna 238.9
Co., Ltd
26 Beijing Hyundai Motor Gasoline A0 SUV Hyundai 233.2
Co., Ltd ix25
27 Beijing Hyundai Motor Gasoline A Sedan LA FESTA 256.0
Co., Ltd
28 Beijing Hyundai Motor Gasoline A Sedan Elantra 251.0
Co., Ltd
29 Beijing Hyundai Motor Gasoline A Sedan Elantra 211.2
Co., Ltd
30 Beijing Hyundai Motor Gasoline A Sedan Celesta, 262.0
Co., Ltd Elantra
31 Beijing Hyundai Motor Gasoline A SUV New 347.4
Co., Ltd SantaFe
32 Beijing Hyundai Motor Gasoline A SUV Tucson 311.4
Co., Ltd
33 Beijing Hyundai Motor Gasoline A SUV Hyundai 287.7
Co., Ltd ix35
34 Beijing Hyundai Motor Gasoline B Sedan Mistra 294.5
Co., Ltd
35 Beijing Hyundai Motor Gasoline B Sedan Sonata 257.6
Co., Ltd
(continued)
358 Appendix

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
36 Beijing Hyundai Motor Gasoline B MPV Custo 289.0
Co., Ltd
37 Beijing Hyundai Motor Plug-in A Sedan Elantra 167.6
Co., Ltd hybrid
38 Beijing Hyundai Motor Battery A0 SUV Hyundai 176.9
Co., Ltd ENCINO
39 Beijing Hyundai Motor Battery A Sedan LA FESTA 163.7
Co., Ltd
40 Beijing Battery Vehicle Battery A Sedan BAIC EU 192.7
Co., Ltd series
41 Beijing Battery Vehicle Battery B Sedan BAIC 231.8
Co., Ltd ARCFOX
αS
42 Beijing Battery Vehicle Battery B SUV BAIC 233.8
Co., Ltd ARCFOX
αT
43 BYD Auto Gasoline A Sedan BYD F3 252.6
44 BYD Auto Gasoline A Sedan BYD Qin 257.0
45 BYD Auto Gasoline A Sedan BYD Qin 268.9
Pro
46 BYD Auto Gasoline A SUV BYD Song 338.1
47 BYD Auto Gasoline A SUV BYD Song 293.3
Pro
48 BYD Auto Gasoline A MPV BYD Song 315.7
MAX
49 BYD Auto Gasoline B SUV BYD Song 292.1
PLUS
50 BYD Auto Gasoline B SUV BYD Tang 370.3
51 BYD Auto Plug-in A Sedan BYD Qin 170.9
hybrid PLUS
52 BYD Auto Plug-in A Sedan BYD Qin 187.5
hybrid Pro
53 BYD Auto Plug-in A SUV BYD Song 211.3
hybrid Pro
54 BYD Auto Plug-in A MPV BYD Song 214.5
hybrid MAX
55 BYD Auto Plug-in B SUV BYD Song 209.3
hybrid PLUS
(continued)
Appendix 359

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
56 BYD Auto Plug-in B SUV BYD Tang 254.0
hybrid
57 BYD Auto Plug-in C Sedan BYD Han 209.9
hybrid
58 BYD Auto Battery A00 Sedan BYD E1 117.9
59 BYD Auto Battery A0 Sedan BYD E2 151.4
60 BYD Auto Battery A0 Sedan BYD 132.3
Dolphin
61 BYD Auto Battery A0 SUV BYD Yuan 176.3
62 BYD Auto Battery A0 SUV BYD Yuan 156.6
Pro
63 BYD Auto Battery A0 MPV BYD D1 158.6
64 BYD Auto Battery A0 MPV BYD E6 245.0
65 BYD Auto Battery A Sedan BYD E3 151.5
66 BYD Auto Battery A Sedan BYD E5 182.5
67 BYD Auto Battery A Sedan BYD Qin 186.5
68 BYD Auto Battery A Sedan BYD Qin 165.8
PLUS
69 BYD Auto Battery A Sedan BYD Qin 171.8
Pro
70 BYD Auto Battery A SUV BYD Song 186.5
Pro
71 BYD Auto Battery B SUV BYD Song 184.4
PLUS
72 BYD Auto Battery B SUV BYD Tang 232.1
73 BYD Auto Battery C Sedan BYD Han 201.5
74 Changan Ford Automobile Gasoline A Sedan Focus 243.9
Co., Ltd
75 Changan Ford Automobile Gasoline A Sedan Focus 252.7
Co., Ltd Active
76 Changan Ford Automobile Gasoline A Sedan Escort 243.7
Co., Ltd
77 Changan Ford Automobile Gasoline A SUV Corsair 333.0
Co., Ltd
78 Changan Ford Automobile Gasoline A SUV Escape 316.5
Co., Ltd
(continued)
360 Appendix

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
79 Changan Ford Automobile Gasoline A SUV EcoBoost 354.6
Co., Ltd
80 Changan Ford Automobile Gasoline B SUV Ford EVOS 311.9
Co., Ltd
81 Changan Ford Automobile Gasoline B SUV Nautilus 399.8
Co., Ltd
82 Changan Ford Automobile Gasoline B SUV Edge 414.2
Co., Ltd
83 Changan Ford Automobile Gasoline C Sedan Taurus 328.6
Co., Ltd
84 Changan Ford Automobile Gasoline C SUV Aviator 414.7
Co., Ltd
85 Changan Ford Automobile Gasoline C SUV Explorer 378.2
Co., Ltd
86 Changan Ford Automobile Plug-in A SUV Escape 206.6
Co., Ltd hybrid
87 Changan Ford Automobile Battery B SUV Mustang 217.9
Co., Ltd Mach-E
88 Changan Mazda Gasoline A Sedan MAZDA3 261.8
Automobile Co., Ltd AXELA
89 Changan Mazda Gasoline A SUV Mazda 243.4
Automobile Co., Ltd CX-30
90 Changan Mazda Gasoline A SUV Mazda 303.8
Automobile Co., Ltd CX-4
91 Changan Mazda Gasoline A SUV Mazda 316.2
Automobile Co., Ltd CX-5
92 Changan Mazda Gasoline B Sedan MAZDA6 295.3
Automobile Co., Ltd ATENZA
93 Changan Mazda Gasoline B SUV Mazda 311.8
Automobile Co., Ltd CX-8
94 Great Wall Motor Gasoline A SUV Haval F7 312.0
Company Limited
95 Great Wall Motor Gasoline A SUV Haval H6 306.6
Company Limited
96 Great Wall Motor Gasoline A SUV Haval H6S 275.6
Company Limited
97 Great Wall Motor Gasoline A SUV Haval M6 323.1
Company Limited
(continued)
Appendix 361

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
98 Great Wall Motor Gasoline A SUV Haval Red 231.6
Company Limited Rabbit
99 Great Wall Motor Gasoline A SUV Haval Jolion 253.5
Company Limited
100 Great Wall Motor Gasoline A SUV Haval 307.3
Company Limited Dagou
101 Great Wall Motor Gasoline A SUV TANK 300 413.1
Company Limited
102 Great Wall Motor Gasoline A SUV WEY VV5 313.0
Company Limited
103 Great Wall Motor Gasoline A SUV WEY VV6 316.7
Company Limited
104 Great Wall Motor Gasoline B SUV Haval H7 293.1
Company Limited
105 Great Wall Motor Gasoline B SUV Haval H9 383.4
Company Limited
106 Great Wall Motor Gasoline B SUV Haval 270.6
Company Limited Mythical
Beast
107 Great Wall Motor Gasoline B SUV Mocha 294.1
Company Limited
108 Great Wall Motor Gasoline B SUV WEY VV7 298.2
Company Limited
109 Great Wall Motor NOVC A SUV Haval H6S 214.0
Company Limited hybrid
110 Great Wall Motor NOVC A SUV Macchiato 197.7
Company Limited hybrid
111 Great Wall Motor Plug-in A SUV Macchiato 198.7
Company Limited hybrid
112 Great Wall Motor Battery A00 Sedan Ora White 106.9
Company Limited Cat
113 Great Wall Motor Battery A00 Sedan Ora Black 105.4
Company Limited Cat
114 Great Wall Motor Battery A Sedan Ora IQ 146.7
Company Limited
115 Great Wall Motor Battery A Sedan Ora Good 144.5
Company Limited Cat
(continued)
362 Appendix

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
116 Chongqing Changan Gasoline A0 Sedan Yuexiang 249.0
Automobile Company
Limited
117 Chongqing Changan Gasoline A0 SUV COS 5 282.5
Automobile Company
Limited
118 Chongqing Changan Gasoline A0 SUV Changan 266.7
Automobile Company CS15
Limited
119 Chongqing Changan Gasoline A0 SUV Changan 295.5
Automobile Company CS35
Limited
120 Chongqing Changan Gasoline A0 MPV Honor S 283.2
Automobile Company
Limited
121 Chongqing Changan Gasoline A0 MPV Oshan A600 289.8
Automobile Company
Limited
122 Chongqing Changan Gasoline A0 MPV Changxing 303.8
Automobile Company
Limited
123 Chongqing Changan Gasoline A Sedan EADO 294.6
Automobile Company
Limited
124 Chongqing Changan Gasoline A Sedan EADO DT 270.2
Automobile Company
Limited
125 Chongqing Changan Gasoline A SUV Oshan X5 281.9
Automobile Company
Limited
126 Chongqing Changan Gasoline A SUV Oshan 286.4
Automobile Company X70A
Limited
127 Chongqing Changan Gasoline A SUV Changan 315.3
Automobile Company CS55
Limited
128 Chongqing Changan Gasoline A SUV Changan 382.0
Automobile Company CS75
Limited
(continued)
Appendix 363

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
129 Chongqing Changan Gasoline A SUV Changan 337.9
Automobile Company CS85
Limited
130 Chongqing Changan Gasoline A SUV Changan 282.7
Automobile Company UNI-T
Limited
131 Chongqing Changan Gasoline B Sedan Ruicheng 292.7
Automobile Company CC
Limited
132 Chongqing Changan Gasoline B SUV Oshan 325.3
Automobile Company COS1
Limited
133 Chongqing Changan Gasoline B SUV Oshan X7 306.3
Automobile Company
Limited ara>
134 Chongqing Changan Gasoline B SUV Changan 424.6
Automobile Company CS95
Limited
135 Chongqing Changan Gasoline B SUV Changan 368.4
Automobile Company UNI-K
Limited
136 Chongqing Changan Gasoline - Crossover Kuayuexing 303.4
Automobile Company passenger V5
Limited vehicle
137 Chongqing Changan Gasoline - Crossover Ruixing 320.1
Automobile Company passenger M60
Limited vehicle
138 Chongqing Changan Gasoline - Crossover Changan V3 266.6
Automobile Company passenger
Limited vehicle
139 Chongqing Changan Gasoline - Crossover Changan 269.3
Automobile Company passenger Star 5
Limited vehicle
140 Chongqing Changan Gasoline - Crossover Changan 284.0
Automobile Company passenger Star 9
Limited vehicle
141 Chongqing Changan Battery A00 Sedan Benben 138.9
Automobile Company
Limited
(continued)
364 Appendix

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
142 Chongqing Changan Battery A0 SUV Changan 165.4
Automobile Company CS15
Limited
143 Chongqing Changan Battery A0 MPV Oshan A600 171.6
Automobile Company
Limited
144 Chongqing Changan Battery A Sedan EADO 170.0
Automobile Company
Limited
145 Chongqing Changan Battery A SUV Changan 206.3
Automobile Company CS55
Limited
146 Chongqing Changan Battery A MPV COSMOS 190.7
Automobile Company
Limited
147 Chongqing Leading Ideal Plug-in C SUV Li ONE 243.5
Automobile Co., Ltd hybrid
148 Daqing Volvo Car Gasoline A SUV Volvo XC40 319.0
Manufacturing Co., Ltd
149 Daqing Volvo Car Gasoline B Sedan Volvo S60L 324.7
Manufacturing Co., Ltd
150 Daqing Volvo Car Gasoline B SUV Volvo XC60 369.0
Manufacturing Co., Ltd
151 Daqing Volvo Car Gasoline C Sedan Volvo S90 303.9
Manufacturing Co., Ltd
152 Daqing Volvo Car Battery A Sedan Polestar 2 218.1
Manufacturing Co., Ltd
153 Daqing Volvo Car Battery A SUV Volvo XC40 227.9
Manufacturing Co., Ltd
154 Volkswagen (Anhui) Gasoline A SUV Sehol QX 274.1
Automotive Company
Limited
155 Volkswagen (Anhui) Gasoline B Sedan Sehol A5 286.2
Automotive Company
Limited
156 Volkswagen (Anhui) Gasoline B SUV Sehol X8 307.8
Automotive Company
Limited
(continued)
Appendix 365

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
157 Volkswagen (Anhui) Battery A00 Sedan Sehol E10X 127.9
Automotive Company
Limited
158 Volkswagen (Anhui) Battery A0 SUV Sehol E20X 177.3
Automotive Company
Limited
159 Volkswagen (Anhui) Battery A0 SUV Sehol E40X 174.4
Automotive Company
Limited
160 Volkswagen (Anhui) Battery B Sedan Sehol E50A 172.6
Automotive Company
Limited
161 Dongfeng Honda Gasoline A0 Sedan Honda LIFE 230.5
Automobile Co., Ltd
162 Dongfeng Honda Gasoline A0 SUV Honda 278.2
Automobile Co., Ltd XR-V
163 Dongfeng Honda Gasoline A Sedan CIVIC 263.4
Automobile Co., Ltd
164 Dongfeng Honda Gasoline A Sedan Envix 231.8
Automobile Co., Ltd
165 Dongfeng Honda Gasoline A SUV Honda 318.1
Automobile Co., Ltd CR-V
166 Dongfeng Honda Gasoline B Sedan Honda 271.3
Automobile Co., Ltd INSPIRE
167 Dongfeng Honda Gasoline B SUV Honda 359.9
Automobile Co., Ltd UR-V
168 Dongfeng Honda NOVC A Sedan Envix 191.6
Automobile Co., Ltd hybrid
169 Dongfeng Honda NOVC A SUV Honda 251.4
Automobile Co., Ltd hybrid CR-V
170 Dongfeng Honda NOVC B Sedan Honda 208.5
Automobile Co., Ltd hybrid INSPIRE
171 Dongfeng Honda NOVC B MPV Elysion 270.4
Automobile Co., Ltd hybrid
172 Dongfeng Honda Battery A0 SUV Honda 172.3
Automobile Co., Ltd M-NV
173 Dongfeng Honda Battery A0 SUV CIIMO 174.5
Automobile Co., Ltd X-NV
174 Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Gasoline A SUV Fengxing 276.0
Co., Ltd SX6
(continued)
366 Appendix

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
175 Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Gasoline A SUV Fengxing T5 322.5
Co., Ltd
176 Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Gasoline A SUV Fengxing 278.6
Co., Ltd T5 EVO
177 Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Gasoline B SUV Fengxing 325.6
Co., Ltd T5L
178 Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Gasoline B MPV Fengxing 408.2
Co., Ltd CM7
179 Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Gasoline B MPV Lingzhi 371.1
Co., Ltd
180 Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Gasoline B MPV Lingzhi 386.5
Co., Ltd PLUS
181 Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Battery A00 Sedan Fengxing T1 105.4
Co., Ltd
182 Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Battery A Sedan JOYEAR 172.0
Co., Ltd S50
183 Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Battery B MPV Lingzhi 203.9
Co., Ltd
184 Dongfeng Motor Gasoline A Sedan Yixuan 261.6
Corporation Passenger
Vehicle Company
185 Dongfeng Motor Gasoline A SUV Aeolus AX7 348.3
Corporation Passenger
Vehicle Company
186 Dongfeng Motor Gasoline A SUV Yixuan GS 274.1
Corporation Passenger
Vehicle Company
187 Dongfeng Motor Gasoline B Sedan Yixuan 253.3
Corporation Passenger MAX
Vehicle Company
188 Dongfeng Motor NOVC B Sedan Yixuan 203.0
Corporation Passenger hybrid MAX
Vehicle Company
189 Dongfeng Motor Battery A Sedan Aeolus E70 167.7
Corporation Passenger
Vehicle Company
190 Dongfeng Nissan Gasoline A0 SUV Kicks 231.3
Passenger Vehicle
Company
(continued)
Appendix 367

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
191 Dongfeng Nissan Gasoline A Sedan Bluebird 225.0
Passenger Vehicle
Company
192 Dongfeng Nissan Gasoline A Sedan Tiida 225.0
Passenger Vehicle
Company
193 Dongfeng Nissan Gasoline A Sedan Venucia 233.6
Passenger Vehicle D60
Company
194 Dongfeng Nissan Gasoline A Sedan Sylphy 249.4
Passenger Vehicle
Company
195 Dongfeng Nissan Gasoline A SUV X-Trail 279.7
Passenger Vehicle
Company
196 Dongfeng Nissan Gasoline A SUV Venucia T60 260.9
Passenger Vehicle
Company
197 Dongfeng Nissan Gasoline A SUV Venucia V 256.8
Passenger Vehicle
Company
198 Dongfeng Nissan Gasoline A SUV Qashqai 269.4
Passenger Vehicle
Company
199 Dongfeng Nissan Gasoline A SUV Star 281.5
Passenger Vehicle
Company
200 Dongfeng Nissan Gasoline B Sedan Teana 280.4
Passenger Vehicle
Company
201 Dongfeng Nissan Gasoline B SUV Murano 343.3
Passenger Vehicle
Company
202 Dongfeng Nissan Gasoline A SUV New X-Trail 277.3
Passenger Vehicle
Company
203 Dongfeng Nissan Gasoline A Sedan New Sylphy 214
Passenger Vehicle
Company
(continued)
368 Appendix

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
204 Dongfeng Nissan NOVC A Sedan Sylphy 185.4
Passenger Vehicle hybrid e-POWER
Company
205 Dongfeng Nissan Battery A00 Sedan Venucia E30 107.4
Passenger Vehicle
Company
206 Dongfeng Nissan Battery A Sedan Venucia 160.8
Passenger Vehicle D60
Company
207 Dongfeng Nissan Battery A SUV Venucia T60 178.9
Passenger Vehicle
Company
208 Dongfeng Sokon Gasoline A0 MPV Fengon 283.6
209 Dongfeng Sokon Gasoline A SUV Fengon 500 283.1
210 Dongfeng Sokon Gasoline A SUV Fengon 305.6
S560
211 Dongfeng Sokon Gasoline B SUV Fengon 580 311.9
212 Dongfeng Sokon Gasoline B SUV Fengon ix5 354.8
213 Dongfeng Sokon Gasoline B SUV Fengon ix7 387.7
214 Dongfeng Sokon Gasoline - Crossover DFSK C36 269.8
passenger
vehicle
215 Dongfeng Sokon Gasoline - Crossover DFSK K07S 254.5
passenger
vehicle
216 Dongfeng Sokon Battery A00 Sedan Fengon E1 113.9
217 Dongfeng Sokon Battery - Crossover DFSK C36 178.0
passenger
vehicle
218 Dongfeng Infiniti Motor Gasoline B Sedan Infiniti 318.6
Co., Ltd Q50L
219 Dongfeng Infiniti Motor Gasoline B SUV Infiniti 335.1
Co., Ltd QX50
220 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Gasoline A0 Sedan Huanchi 230.6
Motors Co., Ltd
221 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Gasoline A0 SUV Kia KX3 222.7
Motors Co., Ltd
222 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Gasoline A0 SUV Yipao 245.2
Motors Co., Ltd
(continued)
Appendix 369

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
223 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Gasoline A Sedan Forte 235.1
Motors Co., Ltd
224 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Gasoline A Sedan Kia K3 255.7
Motors Co., Ltd
225 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Gasoline A SUV Kia KX5 286.7
Motors Co., Ltd
226 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Gasoline A SUV Kia KX7 322.2
Motors Co., Ltd
227 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Gasoline A SUV Ace 287.2
Motors Co., Ltd
228 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Gasoline B Sedan Optima 259.5
Motors Co., Ltd
229 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Gasoline B MPV Carnival 333.0
Motors Co., Ltd
230 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Plug-in A Sedan Kia K3 177.1
Motors Co., Ltd hybrid
231 Fujian Benz Automobile Gasoline B MPV Benz V 395.7
Co., Ltd
232 Fujian Benz Automobile Gasoline B MPV Vito 385.1
Co., Ltd
233 GAC Honda Automobile Gasoline A0 Sedan Honda Fit 230.5
Co., Ltd
234 GAC Honda Automobile Gasoline A0 SUV Vezel 262.7
Co., Ltd
235 GAC Honda Automobile Gasoline A Sedan Crider 258.4
Co., Ltd
236 GAC Honda Automobile Gasoline A Sedan Integra 232.3
Co., Ltd
237 GAC Honda Automobile Gasoline A SUV Breeze 305.7
Co., Ltd
238 GAC Honda Automobile Gasoline A SUV Acura CDX 284.2
Co., Ltd
239 GAC Honda Automobile Gasoline B Sedan Accord 289.8
Co., Ltd
240 GAC Honda Automobile Gasoline B SUV Avancier 360.0
Co., Ltd
241 GAC Honda Automobile Gasoline B SUV Acura RDX 368.1
Co., Ltd
(continued)
370 Appendix

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
242 GAC Honda Automobile NOVC A Sedan Crider 192.1
Co., Ltd hybrid
243 GAC Honda Automobile NOVC A SUV Breeze 236.8
Co., Ltd hybrid
244 GAC Honda Automobile NOVC A SUV Acura CDX 229.0
Co., Ltd hybrid
245 GAC Honda Automobile NOVC A MPV Odyssey 266.3
Co., Ltd hybrid
246 GAC Honda Automobile NOVC B Sedan Accord 208.2
Co., Ltd hybrid
247 GAC Honda Automobile Plug-in A SUV Breeze 196.0
Co., Ltd hybrid
248 GAC Honda Automobile Battery A0 SUV Everus VE1 190.4
Co., Ltd
249 GAC Honda Automobile Battery B Sedan EA6 167.9
Co., Ltd
250 GAC Motor Co., Ltd Gasoline A Sedan Empow 224.9
251 GAC Motor Co., Ltd Gasoline A SUV Trumpchi 263.8
GS4
252 GAC Motor Co., Ltd Gasoline A SUV Trumpchi 275.4
GS4 Coupe
253 GAC Motor Co., Ltd Gasoline A SUV Trumpchi 294.4
GS4 PLUS
254 GAC Motor Co., Ltd Gasoline A MPV Trumpchi 313.4
GM6
255 GAC Motor Co., Ltd Gasoline B Sedan Trumpchi 279.2
GA6
256 GAC Motor Co., Ltd Gasoline B SUV Trumpchi 362.8
GS8
257 GAC Motor Co., Ltd Gasoline B SUV Trumpchi 308.3
GS8 S
258 GAC Motor Co., Ltd Gasoline B MPV Trumpchi 344.8
GM8
259 GAC Motor Co., Ltd Battery A SUV Trumpchi 186.7
AION Y
260 GAC Motor Co., Ltd Battery B Sedan Trumpchi 171.7
AION S
261 GAC Motor Co., Ltd Battery B SUV Trumpchi 229.7
AION LX
(continued)
Appendix 371

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
262 GAC Motor Co., Ltd Battery B SUV Trumpchi 215.7
AION V
263 GAC Fiat Chrysler Gasoline A0 SUV Renegade 291.0
Automobiles Co., Ltd
264 GAC Fiat Chrysler Gasoline A SUV Compass 316.8
Automobiles Co., Ltd
265 GAC Fiat Chrysler Gasoline A SUV Cherokee 356.7
Automobiles Co., Ltd
266 GAC Fiat Chrysler Gasoline B SUV Grand 367.6
Automobiles Co., Ltd Commander
267 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Gasoline A0 Sedan YARiS L 219.4
Ltd Zhixiang
268 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Gasoline A0 Sedan Yaris L 230.8
Ltd Zhixuan
269 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Gasoline A Sedan Levin 246.2
Ltd
270 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Gasoline A Sedan Levin 249.6
Ltd
271 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Gasoline A SUV Toyota 247.6
Ltd C-HR
272 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Gasoline A SUV Wildlander 276.6
Ltd
273 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Gasoline B Sedan Camry 279.2
Ltd
274 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Gasoline B SUV Highlander 374.0
Ltd
275 GAC Toyota Motor Co., NOVC A Sedan Levin 193.9
Ltd hybrid
276 GAC Toyota Motor Co., NOVC A SUV Wildlander 230.9
Ltd hybrid
277 GAC Toyota Motor Co., NOVC B Sedan Camry 236.7
Ltd hybrid
278 GAC Toyota Motor Co., NOVC B SUV Highlander 272.4
Ltd hybrid
279 GAC Toyota Motor Co., NOVC B MPV Sienna 249.1
Ltd hybrid
280 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Plug-in A SUV Wildlander 212.4
Ltd hybrid
(continued)
372 Appendix

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
281 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Battery A SUV Toyota 169.9
Ltd C-HR
282 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Battery B Sedan GAC iA5 169.2
Ltd
283 GAC Mitsubishi Motors Gasoline A SUV ASX 302.8
Co., Ltd
284 GAC Mitsubishi Motors Gasoline A SUV Outlander 331.4
Co., Ltd
285 GAC Mitsubishi Motors Gasoline A SUV Eclipse 317.3
Co., Ltd Cross
286 Guangzhou Xiaopeng Battery A0 SUV XPeng G3 187.0
Motors Technology Co
287 Guangzhou Xiaopeng Battery B Sedan XPeng P5 173.5
Motors Technology Co
288 Guangzhou Xiaopeng Battery C Sedan XPeng P7 214.0
Motors Technology Co
289 BMW Brilliance Gasoline A Sedan BMW 1 249.5
Automotive Ltd Series
290 BMW Brilliance Gasoline A SUV BMW X1 299.7
Automotive Ltd
291 BMW Brilliance Gasoline A SUV BMW X2 285.5
Automotive Ltd
292 BMW Brilliance Gasoline B Sedan BMW 3 303.8
Automotive Ltd Series
293 BMW Brilliance Gasoline B SUV BMW X3 317.3
Automotive Ltd
294 BMW Brilliance Gasoline C Sedan BMW 5 324.7
Automotive Ltd Series
295 BMW Brilliance Battery B SUV BMW iX3 217.6
Automotive Ltd
296 Brilliance Shineray Gasoline A SUV SWM G01 320.6
Chongqing Automobile
Co., Ltd
297 Brilliance Shineray Gasoline A SUV SWM G05 329.5
Chongqing Automobile
Co., Ltd
298 Brilliance Shineray Gasoline A SUV SWM X3 281.4
Chongqing Automobile
Co., Ltd
(continued)
Appendix 373

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
299 Brilliance Shineray Gasoline B SUV SWM X7 329.1
Chongqing Automobile
Co., Ltd
300 Brilliance Shineray Gasoline - Crossover Xiaohaishi 263.9
Chongqing Automobile passenger X30
Co., Ltd vehicle
301 Brilliance Shineray Gasoline - Crossover Xiaohaishi 296.7
Chongqing Automobile passenger X30L
Co., Ltd vehicle
302 Brilliance Shineray Battery - Crossover Xiaohaishi 147.4
Chongqing Automobile passenger X30L
Co., Ltd vehicle
303 Jiangling Motors Co., Ltd Gasoline A SUV Territory 293.2
304 Jiangling Motors Co., Ltd Gasoline B SUV Everest 421.7
305 Jiangling Motors Co., Ltd Gasoline B SUV Equator 341.9
306 Jiangling Motors Co., Ltd Gasoline B MPV Tourneo 417.9
307 Jiangling Motors Co., Ltd Diesel A SUV Yusheng 347.7
308 Zhejiang Leapmotor Battery A00 Sedan Leapmotor 136.2
Technology Co., Ltd T03
309 Zhejiang Leapmotor Battery A0 Sedan Leapmotor 140.0
Technology Co., Ltd S01
310 Zhejiang Leapmotor Battery B SUV Leapmotor 220.3
Technology Co., Ltd C11
311 Chery Jaguar LandRover Gasoline A SUV Discovery 332.2
Automotive Co., Ltd Sport
312 Chery Jaguar LandRover Gasoline A SUV Jaguar 341.5
Automotive Co., Ltd E-PACE
313 Chery Jaguar LandRover Gasoline A SUV Evoque 333.7
Automotive Co., Ltd
314 Chery Jaguar LandRover Gasoline B Sedan Jaguar XEL 292.9
Automotive Co., Ltd
315 Chery Jaguar LandRover Gasoline C Sedan Jaguar XFL 330.5
Automotive Co., Ltd
316 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A0 SUV Tiggo 3X 277.8
317 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A Sedan Arrizo 5 275.0
PLUS
318 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A Sedan Arrizo EX 289.6
319 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A Sedan Arrizo GX 289.2
(continued)
374 Appendix

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
320 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A SUV Jetour X70 332.6
321 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A SUV Jetour 299.7
X70M
322 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A SUV Tiggo 5X 299.6
323 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A SUV Tiggo 7 285.9
324 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A SUV Tiggo 8 306.2
325 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A SUV Exeed LX 285.6
326 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A SUV Exeed TX 310.1
327 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline B SUV Jetour X90 336.2
328 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline B SUV Lanyue 329.6
329 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline B SUV Exeed TXL 310.1
330 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Battery A00 Sedan Chery eQ1 117.1
331 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Battery A00 Sedan Chery QQ 92.1
Ice Cream
332 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Battery A Sedan Arrizo 5e 185.7
333 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Battery A SUV Tiggo E 172.5
334 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Battery B SUV Ant 196.4
335 Shandong Maillard Energy Battery A00 Sedan Letin 116.1
Technology Co., Ltd Mango
336 SAIC Motor Passenger Gasoline A0 SUV MG ZS 269.8
Vehicle Company
337 SAIC Motor Passenger Gasoline A Sedan MG5 246.9
Vehicle Company
338 SAIC Motor Passenger Gasoline A Sedan MG6 308.0
Vehicle Company
339 SAIC Motor Passenger Gasoline A Sedan Roewe i5 246.4
Vehicle Company
340 SAIC Motor Passenger Gasoline A Sedan Roewe i6 247.0
Vehicle Company
341 SAIC Motor Passenger Gasoline A Sedan Roewe i6 247.0
Vehicle Company MAX
342 SAIC Motor Passenger Gasoline A SUV MG HS 350.5
Vehicle Company
343 SAIC Motor Passenger Gasoline A SUV MG ONE 273.0
Vehicle Company
344 SAIC Motor Passenger Gasoline A SUV Linghang 351.2
Vehicle Company
(continued)
Appendix 375

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
345 SAIC Motor Passenger Gasoline A SUV Roewe RX3 269.5
Vehicle Company
346 SAIC Motor Passenger Gasoline A SUV Roewe RX5 329.4
Vehicle Company
347 SAIC Motor Passenger Gasoline A SUV Roewe RX5 363.0
Vehicle Company MAX
348 SAIC Motor Passenger Gasoline B SUV Roewe RX8 408.1
Vehicle Company
349 SAIC Motor Passenger Gasoline B MPV Roewe 353.4
Vehicle Company iMAX8
350 SAIC Motor Passenger Plug-in A SUV Roewe 217.1
Vehicle Company hybrid eRX5
351 SAIC Motor Passenger Battery A00 Sedan SAIC 111.5
Vehicle Company Clever
352 SAIC Motor Passenger Battery A Sedan Roewe Ei5 169.1
Vehicle Company
353 SAIC Motor Passenger Battery A Sedan Roewe R6 170.8
Vehicle Company
354 SAIC Motor Passenger Battery A Sedan Roewe i6 166.9
Vehicle Company MAX
355 SAIC Motor Passenger Battery B SUV Roewe 207.2
Vehicle Company Marvel R
356 Shanghai NIO Automobile Battery B SUV NIO EC6 227.0
Co., Ltd
357 Shanghai NIO Automobile Battery B SUV NIO ES6 217.0
Co., Ltd
358 Shanghai NIO Automobile Battery C SUV NIO ES8 231.5
Co., Ltd
359 SAIC Maxus Automotive Gasoline A MPV MAXUS 306.6
Co., Ltd G50
360 SAIC Maxus Automotive Gasoline B SUV MAXUS 307.9
Co., Ltd D60
361 SAIC Maxus Automotive Gasoline B MPV MAXUS 422.6
Co., Ltd G10
362 SAIC Maxus Automotive Gasoline B MPV MAXUS 396.2
Co., Ltd G20
363 SAIC Maxus Automotive Diesel B MPV MAXUS 368.4
Co., Ltd G10
(continued)
376 Appendix

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
364 SAIC Maxus Automotive Diesel B MPV MAXUS 370.8
Co., Ltd G20
365 SAIC Maxus Automotive Diesel C SUV MAXUS 389.7
Co., Ltd D90
366 SAIC Maxus Automotive Battery A MPV MAXUS 189.4
Co., Ltd EUNIQ 5
367 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline A0 Sedan Volkswagen 215.5
Automotive Co., Ltd Polo
368 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline A Sedan Lavida 260.5
Automotive Co., Ltd
369 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline A Sedan Lamando 275.8
Automotive Co., Ltd
370 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline A Sedan Octavia 252.6
Automotive Co., Ltd
371 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline A Sedan Suna 228.3
Automotive Co., Ltd Santana
372 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline A Sedan Rapid 230.9
Automotive Co., Ltd Spaceback
373 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline A Sedan Rapid 250.6
Automotive Co., Ltd
374 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline A SUV Kodiaq 333.0
Automotive Co., Ltd
375 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline A SUV Kodiaq GT 327.5
Automotive Co., Ltd
376 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline A SUV Karoq 236.0
Automotive Co., Ltd
377 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline A SUV Kamiq 248.4
Automotive Co., Ltd
378 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline A SUV Kamiq GT 245.2
Automotive Co., Ltd
379 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline A SUV T-Cross 224.3
Automotive Co., Ltd
380 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline A SUV Tharu 293.2
Automotive Co., Ltd
381 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline A MPV Touran 269.7
Automotive Co., Ltd
382 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline B Sedan Passat 310.3
Automotive Co., Ltd
(continued)
Appendix 377

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
383 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline B Sedan Superb 288.4
Automotive Co., Ltd
384 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline B SUV Tiguan L 341.1
Automotive Co., Ltd
385 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline B SUV Tiguan X 290.8
Automotive Co., Ltd
386 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline B MPV Viloran 329.7
Automotive Co., Ltd
387 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline C Sedan Phideon 282.0
Automotive Co., Ltd
388 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline C SUV Teramont 358.0
Automotive Co., Ltd
389 SAIC Volkswagen Gasoline C SUV Teramont X 354.4
Automotive Co., Ltd
390 SAIC Volkswagen Battery A Sedan Volkswagen 168.6
Automotive Co., Ltd ID.3
391 SAIC Volkswagen Battery A Sedan Lavida 158.5
Automotive Co., Ltd
392 SAIC Volkswagen Battery A SUV Volkswagen 203.2
Automotive Co., Ltd ID.4 X
393 SAIC Volkswagen Battery B SUV Volkswagen 203.8
Automotive Co., Ltd ID.6 X
394 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline A0 SUV Encore 239.9
Ltd
395 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline A0 SUV Trax 239.5
Ltd
396 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline A Sedan Excelle 299.3
Ltd
397 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline A Sedan Monza 241.6
Ltd
398 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline A Sedan Cavalier 240.1
Ltd
399 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline A Sedan Verano 252.6
Ltd
400 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline A Sedan Verano Pro 234.0
Ltd
401 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline A Sedan Excellegt 251.1
Ltd GT
(continued)
378 Appendix

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
402 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline A Sedan Excellegx 245.6
Ltd
403 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline A SUV Encore GX 275.6
Ltd
404 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline A SUV Envision 360.2
Ltd
405 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline A SUV Trailblazer 278.9
Ltd
406 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline A SUV Equinox 340.4
Ltd
407 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline A MPV Buick GL6 276.7
Ltd
408 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline B Sedan Regal 332.6
Ltd
409 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline B Sedan Lacrosse 312.5
Ltd
410 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline B Sedan Cadillac 274.2
Ltd CT4
411 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline B Sedan Malibu XL 280.9
Ltd
412 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline B Sedan Orlando 279.8
Ltd
413 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline B SUV Enclave 329.2
Ltd
414 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline B SUV Envision 300.7
Ltd Plus
415 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline B SUV Envision S 311.7
Ltd
416 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline B SUV Blazer 326.8
Ltd
417 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline B SUV Cadillac 319.5
Ltd XT4
418 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline B SUV Cadillac 360.1
Ltd XT5
419 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline B SUV Cadillac 350.7
Ltd XT6
420 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline B MPV Buick GL8 373.5
Ltd
(continued)
Appendix 379

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
421 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline C Sedan Cadillac 303.4
Ltd CT5
422 SAIC General Motors Co., Gasoline C Sedan Cadillac 325.2
Ltd CT6
423 SAIC General Motors Co., Battery A Sedan Buick Velite 166.2
Ltd 6
424 SAIC General Motors Co., Battery A Sedan Menlo 166.2
Ltd
425 SAIC General Motors Co., Battery A SUV Buick Velite 167.4
Ltd 7
426 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline A0 Sedan Baojun 310 237.7
Automobile Co., Ltd
427 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline A0 SUV Baojun 510 268.8
Automobile Co., Ltd
428 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline A0 SUV Baojun 269.2
Automobile Co., Ltd RS-3
429 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline A0 MPV Baojun 730 324.3
Automobile Co., Ltd
430 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline A0 MPV Wuling 730 264.5
Automobile Co., Ltd
431 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline A0 MPV Wuling 278.0
Automobile Co., Ltd hongguang
S
432 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline A0 MPV Wuling 271.3
Automobile Co., Ltd hongguang
V
433 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline A Sedan Baojun 270.2
Automobile Co., Ltd 310 W
434 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline A Sedan Baojun 270.5
Automobile Co., Ltd RC-5
435 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline A Sedan Baojun Valli 269.7
Automobile Co., Ltd
436 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline A SUV Baojun 530 321.7
Automobile Co., Ltd
437 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline A SUV Baojun 327.5
Automobile Co., Ltd RS-5
438 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline A SUV Asta 278.7
Automobile Co., Ltd
(continued)
380 Appendix

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
439 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline A MPV Baojun 360 280.9
Automobile Co., Ltd
440 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline A MPV Baojun 304.5
Automobile Co., Ltd RM-5
441 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline A MPV Victory 317.4
Automobile Co., Ltd
442 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline A MPV Wuling 292.3
Automobile Co., Ltd hongguang
PLUS
443 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline B Sedan Baojun 298.5
Automobile Co., Ltd RC-6
444 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline B SUV Wuling 313.5
Automobile Co., Ltd hongguang
S3
445 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline B MPV Wuling 296.7
Automobile Co., Ltd Journey
446 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline - Crossover Wuling 287.7
Automobile Co., Ltd passenger Rongguang
vehicle
447 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline - Crossover Wuling 263.9
Automobile Co., Ltd passenger Rongguang
vehicle S
448 SAIC-GM-Wuling Gasoline - Crossover Wuling 233.6
Automobile Co., Ltd passenger Zhiguang
vehicle
449 SAIC-GM-Wuling Battery A00 Sedan Baojun 108.7
Automobile Co., Ltd E100
450 SAIC-GM-Wuling Battery A00 Sedan Baojun 109.4
Automobile Co., Ltd E200
451 SAIC-GM-Wuling Battery A00 Sedan Baojun 126.0
Automobile Co., Ltd E300
452 SAIC-GM-Wuling Battery A00 Sedan Baojun kiwi 126.7
Automobile Co., Ltd
453 SAIC-GM-Wuling Battery A00 Sedan Hongguang 91.9
Automobile Co., Ltd Mini
454 SAIC-GM-Wuling Battery A00 Sedan Wuling nano 105.4
Automobile Co., Ltd
455 SAIC-GM-Wuling Battery - Crossover Wuling 164.2
Automobile Co., Ltd passenger Rongguang
vehicle
(continued)
Appendix 381

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
456 Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Gasoline A0 SUV Peugeot 215.6
Automobile Co., Ltd 2008
457 Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Gasoline A0 SUV Citroen 272.3
Automobile Co., Ltd C3-XR
458 Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Gasoline A Sedan Peugeot 408 246.2
Automobile Co., Ltd
459 Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Gasoline A SUV Peugeot 270.3
Automobile Co., Ltd 4008
460 Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Gasoline A SUV Aircross 287.7
Automobile Co., Ltd
461 Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Gasoline B Sedan Peugeot 261.8
Automobile Co., Ltd 508L
462 Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Gasoline B Sedan Versailles 248.4
Automobile Co., Ltd C5X
463 Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Gasoline B SUV Peugeot 286.9
Automobile Co., Ltd 5008
464 Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Gasoline C Sedan Citroen C6 282.6
Automobile Co., Ltd
465 Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Battery A Sedan e-Elysee 141.6
Automobile Co., Ltd
466 Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd Battery B Sedan Tesla Model 187.8
3
467 Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd Battery B SUV Tesla Model 206.6
Y
468 WM Motor Technology Battery A SUV WM Ex5 169.7
Co., Ltd
469 WM Motor Technology Battery A SUV WM W6 166.9
Co., Ltd
470 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline A0 SUV Audi Q2L 256.7
Automotive Co., Ltd
471 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline A Sedan Audi A3 244.8
Automotive Co., Ltd
472 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline A Sedan Bora 289.2
Automotive Co., Ltd
473 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline A Sedan Golf 256.4
Automotive Co., Ltd
474 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline A Sedan Jetta VA3 222.3
Automotive Co., Ltd
(continued)
382 Appendix

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
475 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline A Sedan Sagitar 273.6
Automotive Co., Ltd
476 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline A Sedan C-Trek 250.1
Automotive Co., Ltd
477 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline A SUV Audi Q3 331.5
Automotive Co., Ltd
478 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline A SUV Audi Q3 305.8
Automotive Co., Ltd Sportback
479 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline A SUV Jetta VS5 277.8
Automotive Co., Ltd
480 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline A SUV Jetta VS7 277.2
Automotive Co., Ltd
481 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline A SUV T-Roc 290.2
Automotive Co., Ltd
482 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline A SUV Tacqua 243.3
Automotive Co., Ltd
483 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline A SUV Tayron 332.1
Automotive Co., Ltd
484 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline A SUV Tayron X 300.9
Automotive Co., Ltd
485 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline B Sedan Audi A4L 302.8
Automotive Co., Ltd
486 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline B Sedan Volkswagen 294.4
Automotive Co., Ltd CC
487 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline B Sedan Magotan 337.6
Automotive Co., Ltd
488 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline B SUV Audi Q5L 313.3
Automotive Co., Ltd
489 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline B SUV Audi Q5L 309.2
Automotive Co., Ltd Sportback
490 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline C Sedan Audi A6L 359.7
Automotive Co., Ltd
491 FAW-Volkswagen Gasoline C SUV Talagon 375.9
Automotive Co., Ltd
492 FAW-Volkswagen Battery A0 SUV Audi Q2L 161.9
Automotive Co., Ltd
493 FAW-Volkswagen Battery A Sedan Bora 158.6
Automotive Co., Ltd
(continued)
Appendix 383

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
494 FAW-Volkswagen Battery A Sedan Golf 159.2
Automotive Co., Ltd
495 FAW-Volkswagen Battery A SUV Volkswagen 217.1
Automotive Co., Ltd ID.4
CROZZ
496 FAW-Volkswagen Battery B SUV Audi e-tron 269.5
Automotive Co., Ltd
497 FAW-Volkswagen Battery B SUV Volkswagen 205.9
Automotive Co., Ltd ID.6
CROZZ
498 FAW TOYOTA Motor Gasoline A0 Sedan Vios 226.7
Sales Co., Ltd
499 FAW TOYOTA Motor Gasoline A0 Sedan Vios FS 222.6
Sales Co., Ltd
500 FAW TOYOTA Motor Gasoline A Sedan Carola 241.9
Sales Co., Ltd
501 FAW TOYOTA Motor Gasoline A Sedan Allion 255.8
Sales Co., Ltd
502 FAW TOYOTA Motor Gasoline A SUV Toyota 277.2
Sales Co., Ltd RAV4
503 FAW TOYOTA Motor Gasoline A SUV Harrier 251.4
Sales Co., Ltd
504 FAW TOYOTA Motor Gasoline A SUV IZOA 247.6
Sales Co., Ltd
505 FAW TOYOTA Motor Gasoline B Sedan Avalon 268.5
Sales Co., Ltd
506 FAW TOYOTA Motor NOVC A Sedan Carola 193.0
Sales Co., Ltd hybrid
507 FAW TOYOTA Motor NOVC A SUV Toyota 232.2
Sales Co., Ltd hybrid RAV4
508 FAW TOYOTA Motor NOVC A SUV IZOA 208.9
Sales Co., Ltd hybrid
509 FAW TOYOTA Motor NOVC B Sedan Avalon 208.0
Sales Co., Ltd hybrid
510 FAW TOYOTA Motor NOVC B SUV Crown 268.6
Sales Co., Ltd hybrid Kluger
511 FAW TOYOTA Motor Battery A SUV IZOA 167.3
Sales Co., Ltd
512 FAW Car Co., Ltd Gasoline A0 SUV Besturn T33 287.2
(continued)
384 Appendix

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
513 FAW Car Co., Ltd Gasoline A SUV Besturn T55 276.2
514 FAW Car Co., Ltd Gasoline A SUV Besturn T77 293.7
515 FAW Car Co., Ltd Gasoline B Sedan Besturn B70 291.3
516 FAW Car Co., Ltd Gasoline B Sedan Hongqi H5 299.5
517 FAW Car Co., Ltd Gasoline B SUV Besturn T99 329.7
518 FAW Car Co., Ltd Gasoline B SUV Hongqi HS5 347.3
519 FAW Car Co., Ltd Gasoline C Sedan Hongqi H7 371.0
520 FAW Car Co., Ltd Gasoline C Sedan Hongqi H9 374.1
521 FAW Car Co., Ltd Gasoline C SUV Hongqi HS7 450.0
522 FAW Car Co., Ltd Battery A0 MPV Besturn 163.5
NAT
523 FAW Car Co., Ltd Battery A Sedan Besturn B30 157.5
524 FAW Car Co., Ltd Battery A SUV Hongqi 191.7
E-HS3
525 FAW Car Co., Ltd Battery C Sedan Hongqi 174.0
E-QM5
526 FAW Car Co., Ltd Battery C SUV Hongqi 272.4
E-HS9
527 Yibin Cowin Automobile Gasoline A SUV Xuanjie 274.2
Co., Ltd
528 Yibin Cowin Automobile Battery A SUV Xuanjie 163.3
Co., Ltd
529 Hozon New Energy Battery A0 Sedan Neta V 133.0
Automobile Co., Ltd
530 Hozon New Energy Battery A0 SUV Neta N01 148.6
Automobile Co., Ltd
531 Hozon New Energy Battery A SUV Neta U 185.3
Automobile Co., Ltd
532 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline A0 SUV Bingyue 261.9
Group
533 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline A0 SUV Lynk&Co 264.2
Group 06
534 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline A0 SUV Yuanjing X3 262.3
Group
535 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline A Sedan Binray 255.0
Group
(continued)
Appendix 385

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
536 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline A Sedan Emgrand 258.0
Group
537 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline A Sedan Emgrand 257.5
Group GL
538 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline A Sedan Emgrand L 246.9
Group
539 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline A Sedan Lynk&Co 307.3
Group 03
540 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline A Sedan Vision 285.4
Group
541 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline A SUV Boyue 322.5
Group
542 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline A SUV Emgrand 281.3
Group GS
543 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline A SUV Emgrand S 249.6
Group
544 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline A SUV Geely icon 283.1
Group
545 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline A SUV Lynk&Co 310.3
Group 01
546 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline A SUV Lynk&Co 295.5
Group 02
547 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline A SUV Lynk&Co 326.9
Group 05
548 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline A SUV Xingyue 335.0
Group
549 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline A SUV Vision SUV 297.1
Group
550 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline A MPV Jiaji 323.9
Group
551 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline B Sedan Borui GE 323.6
Group
552 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline B Sedan Preface 256.0
Group
553 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline B SUV Haoyue 331.9
Group
554 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline B SUV Xingyue L 316.9
Group
(continued)
386 Appendix

Table 5 (continued)
No. Enterprise name Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle Carbon
class category model emission per
unit mileage
(gCO2 e/km)
555 Zhejiang Geely Holding Gasoline C SUV Lynk&Co 341.0
Group 09
556 Zhejiang Geely Holding Plug-in A SUV Lynk&Co 211.0
Group hybrid 01
557 Zhejiang Geely Holding Plug-in A SUV Lynk&Co 211.8
Group hybrid 05
558 Zhejiang Geely Holding Plug-in A SUV Xingyue 200.2
Group hybrid
559 Zhejiang Geely Holding Plug-in C Sedan Geely TX 227.2
Group hybrid
560 Zhejiang Geely Holding Battery A0 SUV Geometry 142.5
Group EX3
561 Zhejiang Geely Holding Battery A Sedan Emgrand 181.0
Group
562 Zhejiang Geely Holding Battery A Sedan Emgrand 165.5
Group EV Pro
563 Zhejiang Geely Holding Battery A Sedan Geometry A 174.6
Group
564 Zhejiang Geely Holding Battery A SUV Geometry C 181.8
Group
565 Zhejiang Geely Holding Battery C Sedan Zeekr 001 243.0
Group
566 Zhengzhou Nissan Gasoline B SUV Terra 391.5
Automobile Co., Ltd
Appendix 387

Table 6 China’s Regional Power Structure in 2019

地区 Nuclear power Wind power Hydropower Thermal power

Tianjin 0 8.06 0.15 708.49
Shanxi 0 212.13 43.18 2853.44
Shandong 38.67 213.55 4.64 5524.79
Hebei 0 282.64 10.54 2809.74
Beijing 0 3.49 9.91 434.33
Inner Mongolia 0 630.99 36.49 4164.48
Liaoning 301.57 165.09 33.57 1453.8
Jilin 0 104.82 63.4 676.94
Heilongjiang 0 124.63 26.2 876.2
Yunnan 0 220 2695.31 291.89
Hainan 77.17 5.14 25.51 211.23
Guizhou 0 68.41 714.93 1221.96
Guangxi 160.96 41.99 699.43 820.61
Guangdong 892.41 63.14 255.65 3467.52
Xinjiang 0 359.84 251.42 2572.95
Shaanxi 0 72.22 137.01 1639.69
Qinghai 0 37.57 517.9 124.36
Ningxia 0 186.83 19.76 1367.77
Gansu 0 230.06 411.37 803.44
Jiangxi 0 41.18 120.28 1073.43
Hunan 0 60.35 535.75 923.42
Hubei 0 64.4 1465.49 1238.39
Henan 0 56.89 143.95 2774.96
Chongqing 0 8.26 257.85 543.42
Tibet 0 0.14 57.28 2.93
Sichuan 0 54.65 3162.67 453.47
Shanghai 0 17.73 0 823.75
Jiangsu 242.18 172.53 33.22 4578.08
Zhejiang 586.94 30.59 180.02 2595.26
Anhui 0 50.09 53.84 2533.74
Fujian 643.68 72.3 351.17 1398.71
388 Appendix

Power structure
Fujian
Anhui
Zhejiang
Jiangsu
Shanghai
Sichuan
Ti bet
Chongqing
Henan
Hubei
Hunan
Jiangxi
Gansu
Ningxia
Qinghai
Shaanxi
Xinjiang
Guangdong
Guangxi
Guizhou
Hainan
Yunnan
Heilongji ang
Jilin
Liaoning
Inner Mongolia
Bei jing
Hebei
Shandong
Shanxi
Ti anjin

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Nuclear power Wind power Hydropower Thermal power