Geopolitics & Diplomacy
Implications of the Iran-Saudi Deal
for Pakistan
Written by Syed Ali Abbas May 9, 2023 6 min read
Following security talks in Beijing, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to re-establish diplomatic
relations and reopen embassies in each other’s countries. Their agreement reactivates
earlier commerce, economics, investment agreements, and the 2001 security
collaboration deal. It also affirms state sovereignty and non-interference in each country’s
domestic affairs.
The agreement is essential to promote peace and stability in the region and beyond, with
China favorably contributing to resolving complex diplomatic and foreign policy issues.
Pakistan will reckon with downstream implications due to its unique bilateral relations with
Iran and Saudi Arabia, including easing tensions with India and promoting commercial ties
with the Middle East and Central Asia.
China as a Broker of Peace
China’s increased mediatory influence in the Middle East has strengthened its image as a
peace broker in recent years. China is perceived as a neutral party that does not align with
any specific power bloc, giving Beijing a unique advantage over the U.S. and Europe in
building reliable relationships. By interacting with all parties, Beijing’s pragmatic approach
develops relationships based on mutual interests.
Pakistan will reckon with downstream implications due to its
unique bilateral relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia, including
easing tensions with India and promoting commercial ties with
the Middle East and Central Asia.
The current agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia demonstrates China’s ability to
bring two avowed adversaries together and assist them in finding common ground. China
accounts for roughly 30 percent of Iran’s foreign trade and is the largest oil export
market to Saudi Arabia. China’s growing trade and economic links enabled it to utilize its
global weight and influence as a peace broker. It is also worth noting that the decision
comes as President Xi Jinping begins his third term, showing a continuation of China’s
foreign policy objectives based on the cooperation model.
Although the deal has been interpreted differently in the West, it has helped to alleviate
some concerns that China’s involvement in the region is primarily motivated by economic
interests and not share interest in resolving fundamental political issues that underpin
regional conflicts. There is also greater optimism for improved Chinese investments,
infrastructure, and economic development in the region. China’s Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI) stands to benefit from its newfound role as a peace broker.
Diminishing U.S. Influence
Even with political will, U.S. efforts to help normalize Iran-Saudi relations may not have
been possible due to its prior involvement in the Middle East. Given the absence of
diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Iran and its alliance with Saudi Arabia, the U.S.
would not have been seen as an honest broker in Saudi-Iran mediation.
Despite portraying itself as a stabilizing force in the Middle East, the U.S. position has been
contentious for various reasons. Several Middle East countries oppose U.S. security and
military policies in the region. For example, U.S. military actions in Iraq and Libya were
seen as destabilizing factors that later contributed to the growth of extremist groups such
as ISIS and Al-Qaeda.
Furthermore, tensions existed between the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the U.A.E. The
U.S.–Saudi partnership—traditionally based on the exchange of oil for military protection
without meddling in Saudi royal affairs—suffered a significant setback in 2018 due to the
murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and then-President Trump’s open criticism of
the Kingdom.
The United States limited its support against the Arab coalition’s war in Yemen, causing
a schism in its regional relations. Consequently, Saudi Arabia has turned to other
countries, such as Russia and China, that are willing to invest in the country without
imposing their values. The Saudi government has launched numerous initiatives under
the Vision 2030 development plan to diversify its economy, reduce its dependence on oil,
and transform the country’s strategic position into an asset—and consequently,
decoupling from the U.S.
Implications for Pakistan
Stable relations and cooperation between Iran and Saudi Arabia benefit Pakistan’s efforts
to promote regional integration and increase domestic economic development. As Iran
and Saudi Arabia attempt to resolve their differences through negotiation, improved
regional peace and stability may increase Pakistan’s commercial and economic
engagement potential with the Middle East and Central Asia.
Pakistan values its close ties with Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran is an important neighbor, and
Saudi Arabia employs almost three million overseas Pakistanis and provides financial
support in times of need. Pakistan can use this opportunity to seek crucial investments
from both countries to ensure the China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor’s success. Saudi
Arabia and Iran are participants in the BRI.
Both Iran and Saudi Arabia have already shown interest in investing in Pakistan. Iran has
vast reserves of untapped natural gas and energy resources that could help develop
Pakistan’s gas and electricity transmission systems to overcome the burgeoning energy
crisis. Similarly, it would benefit Pakistan to attract investments from Saudi Arabia to
develop its oil and gas sector—particularly in exploration and production—which could help
reduce the country’s reliance on imported oil, shoring up foreign exchange reserves.
Pakistan’s geography offers vast opportunities for regional connectivity, whose dividends
will be collectively helpful for regional and international players. Moreover, this
convergence will also help address complex geopolitical challenges to inter-regional
connectivity and stability, such as Afghanistan. The overall regional security situation may
improve because of an added inclination to resolve conflicts and lower regional tensions.
This normalization would bring both parties to resolve issues through negotiations, which
could help reduce sectarianism and extremist groups’ influence outside their border
through proxies.
Normalization in Iran-Saudi diplomatic relations could help reduce regional tensions and
create a more conducive environment for peace and stability. Iran and Saudi Arabia also
enjoy cordial relations with Pakistan and India and could use their influence to ease
tensions between the two South Asian countries. With reduced regional tensions, Pakistan
and India may be more willing to engage in dialogue and pursue diplomatic solutions to
their longstanding disputes.
Iran and Saudi Arabia also enjoy cordial relations with Pakistan
and India and could use their influence to ease tensions between
the two South Asian countries.
The agreement may also support multilateral forums such as the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO), a platform for regional countries to discuss security and economic
issues. Pakistan and India are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO);
Iran recently joined, and Saudi Arabia has agreed to participate as a dialogue partner.
Increased collaboration between Iran and Saudi Arabia within the SCO could create an
opportunity for Pakistan and India to engage in constructive dialogue. For instance, in a
recent positive development, Pakistan’s foreign minister agreed to attend the May 2023
SCO foreign ministers meeting in India.
It remains to be seen whether Iran and Saudi Arabia will be able to resolve their bilateral
issues before agreeing to play such a role and whether India and Pakistan will welcome
their involvement. The possibility of new regional dynamics should be regarded positively.
With peace in the making between Pakistan’s two traditional friends, Islamabad could
make domestic progress without walking the erstwhile tightrope of balancing its relations
between both countries.
Also Read: Strengthening Relations with Saudi Arabia: The Quest for Pakistan’s
Economic Survival
***
Image 1: Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images
Image 2: Aamir Qureshi/AFP via Getty Images
Posted in: Geopolitics, Iran, Middle East, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Security, Terrorism
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