EXERCISES [MAI 4.5-4.
7]
PROBABILITY I (VENN DIAGRAMS – TABLES)
SOLUTIONS
Compiled by: Christos Nikolaidis
A. Paper 1 questions (SHORT)
1. (a)
n( A) 15 n(B ) 25 n( A B ) 10
n( A) 35 n(B ' ) 25 n( A B ) 30
n( A B ) 15 n( A B' ) 5 n( A B) 20
n( A B ) 45 n( A B' ) 35 n( A B ) 40
(b)
P ( A) 15/50 P ( A) 35/50 P( A B) 30/50
P ( A' B ) 15/50 P ( A' B ) 45/50 P ( B ' A) 35/50
(c)
P( A | B) 10/25 P ( A' | B ) 15/25 P ( B' | A) 5/15
P ( B | A) 10/15 P( A | B ' ) 5/25 P ( A' | B ' ) 20/25
2. (a)
P ( A) 0.5 P ( A) 50 P( A B) 0.2
P( A B) 0.9 P ( A' B ) 0.4 P ( A' B ) 0.7
(b)
P( A | B) 1/3 P ( A' | B ) 2/3 P ( B' | A) 3/5
P ( B | A) 2/5 P( A | B ' ) 3/4 P ( A' | B ' ) 1/4
3. (a)
P (Boy ) 30/80 P (Group C ) 15/80
P ( Boy and Group C ) 10/80 P ( Boy or Group C ) 35/80
(b)
P ( Boy | Group C ) 10/15 P (Group C | Boy ) 10/30
P ( Boy | NOT Group C ) 20/65 P ( NOT Group C | Boy ) 20/30
4. (a)
P ( A) a+c P ( A' B ) b
P ( A) b+d P ( A' B ) a+c+d
P( A B) c P ( A' B ' ) d
P( A B) a+b+c P ( A' B ' ) a+b+d
(b)
P( A | B) c / (b+c) P ( B' | A) a / (a+c)
P ( B | A) c / (a+c) P ( B | A' ) b / (b+d)
P ( A' | B ) b / (b+c) P ( A' | B ' ) d / (a+d)
P( A | B ' ) a / (a+d) P ( B' | A' ) d / (b+d)
(c) P ( A B ) P ( A) P( B ) c ( a c)(b c) a (2a )(2a )
a 4a 2 a 0.25 , so b c d 0.25
1
5. (a) P ( A) = 0.4 P ( A B ) = 0.7
(b) x 0 .
(c) x 0.2
(d) x 0.3
(e) x 0.1
6. (a) n(A B) = n(A) + n(B) – n(A B)
65 = 30 + 50 – n(A B) n(A B) = 15 (may be on the diagram)
n(B A) = 50 – 15 = 35
n( B A) 35
(b) P(B A) = = 0.35
n(U ) 100
7. (a) (i) n(A B) = 2
2 1
(ii) P(A B) = or
36 18
(b) n(A B) 0 (or equivalent)
8. (a) (i) n = 0.1
(ii) m = 0.2, p = 0.3, q = 0.4
(b) P(B′) = 0.6
9. (a) (i) p = 0.2
(ii) q = 0.4
(iii)r = 0.1
2
(b) P(A│B′) =
3
2
(c) valid reason e.g. ≠ 0.5, 0.35 ≠ 0.3 thus, A and B are not independent
3
10. (a) p(A B) = 0.6 + 0.8 – 1= 0.4
(b) p(A’ B') = p((A B)΄) = 1 – 0.4= 0.6
19
11. (a) 0.158
120
(b) 35 (8 + 5 + 7)(= 15)
15 3 1
Probability = 0.125
120 24 8
(c) Number studying = 76
Number not studying = 120 number studying = 44
44 11
Probability = 0.367
120 30
20 1
12. (a) (i) P(PC) = =
20 40 3
30 1
(ii) P(PC) = =
30 60 3
(b) Investigating conditions, or some relevant calculations
2
P is independent of C, with valid reason
13. (a)
Boy Girl Total
TV 13 25 38
Sport 33 29 62
Total 46 54 100
38
P(TV) =
100
13
(b) P(TV Boy) =
46
14. (a)
Males Females Totals
Unemployed 20 40 60
Employed 90 50 140
Totals 110 90 200
40 1
(b) (i) P(unemployed female) =
200 5
90 9
(ii) P(male I employed person) =
140 14
15. (a) 46/97
(b) 13/51
(c) 59/97
12 3
16. (a) (i) P(male or tennis) =
20 5
6
(ii) P(not football | female) =
11
11 10
(b) P(first not football) = , P(second not football) =
20 19
11 10
P(neither football) =
20 19
110 11
P(neither football) =
380 38
17. (a) Independent (I)
(b) Mutually exclusive (M)
(c) Neither (N)
18. Using a tree diagram,
ARGENTINE NOT ARGENTINE TOTAL
SPANISH 12 3 15
ENGLISH 3 3 6
TOTAL 15 6 21
12 4
p(SA) = =
15 5
1
19. (a) P(A) =
11
2
(b) P(B│A) =
10
3
1 2 2
(c) P(A ∩ B) = =
11 10 110
120 1
20. (a) 0.333
360 3
90 120 210 7
(b) 0.583
360 360 12
90 3
(c) 0.429
210 7
21. (a) P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A B)
1 3 7 3
P(A B) = =
2 4 8 8
3
P( A B) 8 = 1
(b) P(AB) =
P( B ) 3 2
4
(c) Yes, the events are independent
EITHER P(AB) = P(A) OR P(A B) = P(A)P(B)
22. (a) Independent P(A B) = P(A) P(B) = 0.3 0.8 = 0.24
(b) P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B) = 0.3 + 0.8 0.24 = 0.86
(c) No, since P(A B) 0 or P(A B) P(A) + P(B)
1
P E F 1
23. (a) P(F) = , P(F) = 3 =
P E 2 2
3
2 1 1 5
(b) P(E F) = P(E) + P(F) (P(E F)) = = 0.833
3 2 3 6
3
24. (a)
4
(b) P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)
2 3 7 11
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)= = (0.275)
5 4 8 40
11
P( A B) 40 11
(c) P(A B) = = (0.367)
P( B) 3 30
4
25. (a) P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B) = 0.6x
(b) (i) P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A)P(B)
0.80 = 0.6 + x – 0.6x 0.2 = 0.4x x = 0.5
(ii) P(A ∩ B) = 0.3
(c) P(A ∩ B) ≠ 0
4
26. Let P(A) = x then P(B) = 3x and P(A B) = P(A) 3P(A) = 3x2
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B) 0.68 = x + 3x 3x2
3x2 4x + 0.68 = 0 x = 0.2 ( x = 1.133, not possible)
P(B) = 3x = 0.6
3 4 6 1
27. (a) P (A B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A B)= – = (0.0909)
11 11 11 11
3 4 12
(b) For independent events, P (A B) = P (A) × P (B) = = (0.0992)
11 11 121
28.
29. As P(A | B) = P(A) then A and B are independent events
Using P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A) P(B)
to obtain 0.8 = 0.6 + P(B) 0.6 P(B)
0.8 = 0.6 + 0.4P(B) P(B) = 0.5 OR by using Venn diagram
30.
5
31. (Venn diagram)
U
A B
0.3 0.3
P(A B) = P(A)P(B) 0.3 = 0.6 × P(B)
P(B) = 0.5
Therefore, P(A B) = 0.8
32. (a) 0.88 = 0.4 + P(B) – 0.4P(B)
0.6P(B) = 0.48 = > P(B) = 0.8
(b) P(A B) – P(A B) = 0.88 – 0.32= 0.56
33. for independence P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A) × P(B)
0.52 = P(A) + 2P(A) – 2P(A)P(A)
P(B) = 0.4
34. Total number of possible outcomes = 36
6
(i) P ( E ) P (1,1) P (2, 2) P (3, 3) P (4, 4) P (5, 5) P (6, 6)
36
3
(ii) P ( F ) P (6, 4) P (5, 5) P (4, 6)
36
(iii) P E F P (E) P (F ) P (E F )
1
P (E F )
36
6
6 3 1 8 2
PE F , 0.222
36 36 36 36 9
35. Sample space ={(1, 1), (1, 2) ... (6, 5), (6, 6)}
(This may be indicated in other ways, e.g, a grid or a tree diagram, partly or fully completed)
(a) P (S < 8) = 21/36 = 7/12
11
(b) P (at least one 3) =
36
1
(c) P (at least one 3S < 8) = 7/21 =
3
7
B. Paper 2 questions (LONG)
36.
37. (a)
U(88)
E(32) H(28)
a b c
39
n (E H) = a + b + c = 88 – 39 = 49
n (E H) = 32 + 28 – b = 49 b = 11
a = 32 – 11 = 21
c = 28 – 11 = 17
11 1
(b) (i) P(E H) =
88 8
21
PH ' E 88 21 21
(ii) P(HE) = = (= 0.656) Or directly =
P E 32 32 32
88
56 55 54
(c) (i) P(none in economics) = = 0.253
88 87 86
(ii) P(at least one) = 1 – 0.253= 0.747
OR
32 56 55 32 31 56 32 31 30
3 3 = 0.747
88 87 86 88 87 86 88 87 86
8
38. (a) P(F S) = 1 0.14 (= 0.86)
P(F S) = 0.93 0.86= 0.07
Note: You can use Venn Diagram
P ( F S ) 0.07
(b) P(F S) = = 0.113
P ( S ) 0.62
(c) F and S are not independent
EITHER
If independent P(F S) = P(F), 0.113 0.31
OR
If independent P(F S) = P(F) P(S), 0.07 0.31 0.62 (= 0.1922)
(d) Let P(F) = x
P(S) = 2P(F) = 2x
P(F S) = P(F)P(S) P(F)P(S) 0.86 = x + 2x 2x2 2x2 3x + 0.86 = 0
x = 0.386, x = 1.11
P(F) = 0.386
80 8
39. (a) (i) P ( A) 0.381
210 21
35 1
(ii) P (year 2 art) 0.167
210 6
(iii) No (the events are not independent
EITHER P( A B) P ( A) P ( B) (to be independent)
100 10 1 8 10
P ( B) 0.476 but
210 21 6 21 21
OR P (A)=P (A B) (to be independent)
35 8 35
P (A B ) but
100 21 100
OR P (B)=P (B A) (to be independent)
100 10 35 35 100
P ( B) 0.476 , P(B A) but
210 21 80 80 210
(b) n (history) 85
50 10
P (year 1 history) 0.588
85 17
110 100 100 110 110 100 200
(c) 2 0.501
210 209 210 209 210 209 399
9
40. (a) (i) Venn diagram, 30
(ii) 45
70 7
(b) (i)
100 10
45 9
(ii)
70 14
(c) P(A ∩ B) = 0.3 ≠ 0
30 75 55 30 75
(d) P(A ∩ B) ≠ P(A) × P(B), ,
100 100 100 55 100
30 75
OR P(B│A) ≠ P(B),
55 100
41. (a) (i) s=1
(ii) q=5
(iii) p = 7, r = 3
5
(b) (i) P(art|music) =
8
(ii) METHOD 1
12 3 3 5
Part the events are not independent
16 4 4 8
METHOD 2
96 3 12 8 5
P(art) × P(music) = the events are not independent
256 8 16 16 16
3
(c) P(first takes only music) =
16
7
P(second takes only art)=
15
3 7 21 7
P(music and art)= =
16 15 240 80
42. (a) (i) 250 (ii) 166 (since 1000/6=166.67) (iii) 83
(b) 250/1000 = 1/4
(c) 166/1000
(d) 83/1000
(e) 250-83 = 167 so P=167/1000.
(f) 250 + 166 – 83 = 333 so P=333/1000
(g) 250 + 166 – 2×83 = 250 so P=250/1000.
10
