Prediction of Strong Ground Motion at Somnath

Temple
Shivamanth Angadi (  [email protected] )
KLS Gogte Institute of Technology
Apurva Hiravennavar
Jain College of Engineering
Chandresh H. Solanki
SVNIT
Goudappa R. Dodagoudar
IIT Madras

Research Article

Keywords: Site characterization, Multichannel analysis of surface wave, GIS, Distribution seismic hazard
analysis and Uniform hazard curves

Posted Date: August 5th, 2023

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3205107/v1

License:   This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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Abstract
Seismic hazard assessment is the key tool for rational planning and designing in seismically vulnerable
regions. Gujarat state of India is the only state in peninsular India with maximum seismic hazard of big
shallow earthquake originating from Intraplate seismicity. Entire Gujarat region has earthquake hazard of
different levels from moderate to high as seismic zones III to V are assigned as per the seismic zoning
map of India [IS:1893 Part 1 (2002)]. In the present study, seismic hazard assessment for Gujarat state of
India is performed by using state of art probabilistic seismic hazard assessment procedures for selected
areas. Using on seismotectonic information a possible fault map is prepared and using calculated
regional seismicity parameter, earthquake recurrence relationships are established for each fault.
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in terms of horizontal component of peak ground acceleration
for 5% structural damping for the rock sites are carried out using seven different ground motion
prediction equations (GMPEs) including one from India. The output of the seismic hazard computations
are then used to develop uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for the two earthquake return periods (i.e.475-
years and 2475-years).

1. Introduction
An earthquake is a phenomenon that occurs without a sign of warning and it involves shaking of the
ground and shaking of objects (living/dead) over an earth. It results from the release of accumulated
strain energy of the moving crustal plates or lithosphere. The earthquake risk can be reduced by
earthquake-resistant design which may require many precautions to be taken to avoid the structures from
most possible types of failures. The aim of the earthquake resistant proposes is to withstand the
structure in serviceability and strength criteria as per Indian standard I.S. 1893. And Structure or Facility
can sustain without excessive damage (Kramer, 1996). The ground shaking level is most expediently
described in terms of ground motion parameters. The ground shaking parameters may be in the form of
Peak ground acceleration (PGA), Uniform hazard spectra (UHS) and acceleration time history.

The evolution of seismic hazard assessment or the peak ground acceleration approximation are carried
out based on mathematical phenomenon used and by simulation of seismic wave propagation. Number
of papers had been reviewed the efficient in seismic analysis work done by several researchers using
probabilistic and deterministic approach estimation in this literature. Some of authors have undergone
seismicity of India region particularly, As per IS 1893 (2016), where area of concentration falls under the
zone II and zone III in the seismic zonation map of India. Seismic hazard assessment of either the entire
Peninsular India or specific regions have been carried out by focusing on the development of intensity-
based seismic zoning maps for entire Indian Territory (e.g., Tandon, 1956; Guha, 1962). Seismic hazard
assessment within a probabilistic framework was developed afterwards (e.g., Kaila et al., 1972; Jaiswal
and Sinha, 2007).

In the present study, a few of the techniques have been discussed which provides stiffness variation of
the subsurface useful for the static and dynamic soil-structure interaction. Geophysical and geotechnical

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techniques are help in cavity locations, backfilled quarry and subsurface geological features such are
lineaments, faults, sub faults and discontinuities. Currently, multichannel analysis of surface wave test is
used in the geotechnical and geophysical engineering profession for the estimation of dynamic
properties of soil. An attempt is made to provide the strong ground motion parameters in the form of
seismic parameters like, PGA, PHA, UHS etc, for Gujarat and Somnath region. The commonly used
equivalences of return periods having 10% and 2% probability of being exceedance during the operational
lifetime properties, soil profiling, microzonation, hazard analysis and site response studies.

2. Seismicity of the Study Area

Brief description of the study area given in this section, temple complex of Somnath, Gujarat state in
Western India. Somnath is on the border area with Pakistan. Gujarat is having Rajashan in northeast,
Madhya Pradesh in side of east, Maharashtra in south side and Union territories of Daman and Diu in
South-East. The Arabian Sea borders the state both to the west and the south-west. It includes 33 districts
and covers an area of surrounding approximately 196,024 sq. km and having coordinates of the area is
as latitude 20°53′16.9′′ North 70°24′5.0′′, the average altitude of around 8.77 m above the Mean Sea Level
(MSL) of Somnath temple, at Somnath as shown in Fig. 1. The Gujarat state has been categorized under
zone V, zone IV, and zone III of the seismic zoning map of India (Bureau Indian Standards, 2016).
Somnath is situated in the banks of Arebian Sea. Where, effects of high tide and low tide or effects of any
natural disastater are prominently visible. So that protection of the Somnath temple complex is very
essential.

2.1 Regional Seismicity

Earthquake catalogues comprise the basic critical input for the characterization of seismic sources and
helps in preparation of a unified working earthquake catalogue for a region under consideration. For the
function of characterizing identified seismic sources, the activity rates of the seismicity can be used and
compiled in catalogue using information from several sources. Internationally recognized earthquake
catalogues on the internet, such as the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC), the International
Seismological Centre (ISC), Institute of Seismological Research (ISR), United States Geological Survey
(USGS) have also served as sources for the historical and instrumental data. In all, a total of 623
earthquake data (Mw ≥ 3.0) from the Gauribidanur Array (GBA) and global sources from the year 1968 to
1991 have been compiled. The current earthquake catalogue for Somnath, Western India, includes 406
earthquake events with Mw ≥ 3.0 from 1819 to 2016. Identification of all critical tectonic features likely to
generate significant ground motions in the vicinity of the site. This is achieved in the form of preparation
of representative fault map of the Gujarat region. The seismotectonic information available in various
literatures are used like Biswas (1982, 2005), Yadav et al. (2010), Bhattacharya et al. (2004) and many
others and a possible fault map is prepared which can represent the historic and current seismicity within
Gujarat region.

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3. Derive Gutenberg - Richter (G-R) Recurrence Law
3.1 Earthquake Catalogue Declustering
The composite catalogue of the concentrated area having time range from 1918 to 2016 (197 years). It
was used for evaluating the seismicity in the Somnath region (20.888 °N, 70.4012 °E ) (within 400 km
radial distance from Somnath temple complex) with a total number of 3115 events of earthquake.
Earthquake catalogue has been prepared in this region by considering earthquake magnitude greater than
3.0. The declustering process can be carried out by using dynamic windowing method developed by
Gardner and Knopoff (1974), before and aftershock events are dependent on the size of the main
earthquake event, which forms the basis of the dynamic windowing method.

3.2 Catalogue Completeness

Completeness analyses have been performed using visual cumulative method (Tinti’s and Mulargia,
1985) and Stepp’s method (Stepp, 1972). In the present study, different magnitude classes are adopted
for the assessment of the period of completeness of the earthquake catalogue., the availability of the
data in the Gujarat region are very few since after removing the clustered events only 406 events of Mw
≥ 4 are available for entire Gujarat and Western India. The cumulative annual rates of occurrence of
earthquakes for different magnitude classes obtained using Stepp’s and CUVI methods are presented in
Table 1. The recurrence relationships that are established based on completeness periods obtained by
both the Stepp’s and CUVI methods are shown in Fig. 2. The seismicity of the Gujarat region is reviewed
and earthquake catalogue for earthquake moment magnitude Mw ≥ 4, spanning from earliest times to
current 2016 is prepared. The catalogue is further checked for the catalogue completeness using CUVI
(Tinti and Mulargia, 1985) and Stepp’s procedure (Stepp, 1973). Since, most of the events in the prepared
catalogue are from the historic events and Mw ≥ 4 events may not be unnoticed in the past, the
catalogue can be considered to be complete for seismic hazard analysis. The seismicity parameters in
form of Gutenberg-Richter parameters are estimated using Least Square Fit method and Maximum
Likelihood estimation method.

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 Table 1
Comparing of Gutenberg-Richter recurrence using Stepp’s and CUVI methods
Magnitude Stepp’s method CUVI method
range
Completeness period log(λm) Completeness period log(λm)
(years) (years)

3 ≤ Mw < 4 60 0.5119 46 0.623

4 ≤ Mw < 5 40 0.0414 54 0.008

5 ≤ Mw < 6 130 -0.6990 82 -0.516

6 ≤ Mw < 7 150 -1.5740 172 -1.537

7 ≤ Mw < 8 197 -1.4494 197 -1.449

4 Seismic Hazard Analyses

It is generally accepted that the decision making process regarding urban or regional planning should be
based on probable characteristics of earthquakes expected to occur in future. Universal procedure
adopted for this purpose is to carry out Seismic Hazard Assessment (SHA). Broadly the term SHA
denotes the potentially damaging phenomena associated with earthquakes, such as ground shaking,
liquefaction, landslides, and tsunami, more precisely it refers to the likelihood, or probability of
experiencing a specified earthquake intensity of any damaging phenomenon at the particular site, or over
a region, in some period of interest. Probabilistic approach gives the likelihood of a random event and
does not computes the time of occurrence. The level of seismic hazard is measured as the likelihood of
ground motion exceeding the specified strength in a specified period. The assessment of seismic hazard
is one of the important inputs required for determining the seismic risk of citing any critical facility such
as nuclear power plant. Seismic hazard combined with vulnerability and value factors (infrastructure,
population density, land use, etc.) are used to estimate the seismic risk. The PSHA has been carried out in
the present study for the Gujarat region, western India.

4.1 Seismic hazard maps

Seismic hazard maps are the primary source to estimate the earthquake hazard. The quantification of
seismic hazard map requires an integrated hazard calculation which includes considerations of total
number of natural earthquake occurrence (size, location and time), liniments and faults. Which is
analyzed by proper methods and using necessary software’s. It is the result of the simplified method of
complex process, which gives horizontal and vertical ground-motion component. The hazard map gives
the results of uniform hazard spectrum return period of 475 (10%) and 2475 (2%) years probability
exceedance in 50 years are calculated. From the generated map of rock level PGA for Somnath Temple, it
is shown that average spectral acceleration values are derived from Fig. 3. Moreover, the PGA values vary
from 0.08 g to 0.51g, which is considered as a theme in probabilistic hazard index map.

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4.2 Seismic hazard curves
To provide distribution of hazard estimates allows statistical uncertainty in hazards to be quantified for
the specific site, such that hazard estimates can be expressed as the mean or the 50th percentile of a
distribution. Figure 4 shows the mean hazard curves for the temple complex at Somnath corresponding
to return periods of 475 and 2475 years by using the attenuation relationship of Abrahamson et al,
(2014). Using these hazard curves, the design ground motion intensity in terms of acceleration can be
easily obtained for any value of an acceptable probability of exceedance and life span of the structure or
facility.

5. Uniform hazard spectrum at Somnath Temple

For an intended time span, probability of exceedance which is having the same acceleration ordinates of
pseudo spectral nature is defined as uniform hazard spectrum. The uniform hazard spectrum is inbuilt
part of PSHA. For acceleration time history scaling and response spectram method of structures or as the
target spectrum, UHS are frequently used. For the estimation of hazard curve and UHS return period (RP)
are taken as 475 and 2475 (10% POE and 2% POE in 50 yrs) years with 5% damping at the level of level
and stiff or rock ground conditions. The horizontal component of ground motions are derived from
hazard curves (Fig. 4). From derived uniform hazard spectrum, design basis earthquake phenomenon has
been checked as shown in the following graphs. For PGA values are from the 475 and 2475 years return
period are found to be between 0.11 and 0.17g respectively. Design basis earthquake (DBE) concept can
be developed with consideration of hazards of 475 year return period which is moderately affecting the
structure in it is design life. Maximum considered earthquake (MCE) is represented as the hazard levels of
return Period for 2475 years inclusive of most severe earthquakes. According to in the seismicity map of
an Indian code (IS: 1893 Part 1 2002, 2016), Somnath, Gujarat lies in Zone III. For MCE and DBE, the
expected PGAs are 0.08g and 0.16g respectively. Figure 5 are compared the UHS for 475, 2475 year return
period at the site with the DBE & MCE spectrum respectively. It shows Measured PGA values at Somnath
Temple site is lies in between DBE and MCE curve or parallel DBE Curve. BIS code recommends higher
spectral accelerations at longer structural periods. Similar observations can be drawn from comparing
UHS of 2475 year return period.

6. Summary and Conclusions

The PSHA methodology has included a highly structured procedure for interpreting the tectonics in
western India at Somnath Temple region to define the seismic source zones and utilized in statistical
analyses of a historical earthquake catalogue. which develops based on earthquake size and rate
parameters. Based on the review of seismotectonic set-up and seismic history around concentrated area
in controlling region of 400 km radius surrounding the Somnath temple complex is considered for the
Analysis. The results of the hazard analysis are provided in the form of peak ground acceleration (PGA),
uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) and acceleration time-histories at bedrock level. Deaggregation of
seismic hazard provides the relative contributions to hazards from sources of different magnitude and
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distances. The hazard curve gives the probability of exceedance for a suite of PGA levels from all
sources. The PGA value obtained from PSHA approach for Somnath, Gujarat region is 0.11g and 0.17g
for 475 and 2475 years return period. These Values are compared with the published results for the
Gujarat region. The horizontal PGA expected in western India (from the mean hazard curve), on the stiff
ground, with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are in range of 0.08g to .17g, whereas, in case
of a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years are in range of 0.1g to .2g.

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Figures

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