Stock Update

Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd

Soft quarter, improved outlook for H2
Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Pharmaceuticals Sharekhan code: TORNTPHARM

3R MATRIX + = -
Reco/View: Buy  CMP: Rs. 1,575 Price Target: Rs. 1,820 

Result Update
Right Sector (RS) ü á Upgrade  Maintain â Downgrade

Right Quality (RQ) ü Summary

Right Valuation (RV) ü Š Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited (Torrent) reported soft performance in Q2FY2023 but medium-
term outlook is improving with healthy outlook from India and Brazil business, while Germany
+ Positive = Neutral – Negative business is expected to recover in H2FY2023.
Š Revenue grew by 7% y-o-y, driven by 13% and 19% y-o-y growth in India and Brazil business,
respectively; OPM fell 125 bps y-o-y to 29.6%; PAT stood flat at Rs. 312 crore.
What has changed in 3R MATRIX
Š India business likely to grow by 13-14%, Brazil business to grow by 19-20%, and Germany to see
Old New sequential recovery in the quarters ahead. OPM is likely to remain at ~30%.
Š Given better growth prospects across India and Brazil businesses, we retain Buy with an
RS  unchanged PT of Rs. 1,820.

RQ  Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited (Torrent) delivered soft performance in Q2FY2023. The company’s
revenue grew by 7% y-o-y to Rs. 2,291 crore, while OPM declined by 125 bps y-o-y. PAT for the quarter
stood flat at Rs. 312 crore. Double-digit growth in Brazil and India businesses provides some support
RV  to overall growth, while Germany sales saw sequential improvement. Going ahead, India and Brazil
businesses could be the company’s key growth drivers, while US business is likely to be under stress
due to prolonged delays for plant re-inspection by USFDA, leading to lack of new launches and high
competitive pressures. Germany business is expected to see good recovery in H2FY2023. OPM is
ESG Disclosure Score NEW expected to remain at 29-30% in H2FY2023. However, cost savings due to discontinuation of the
liquids business and other cost-control measures implemented could result in OPM expansion for
FY2024/FY2025.
ESG RISK RATING
Updated Oct 08, 2022
37.61 Key positives
Š Domestic business revenue grew by 13% y-o-y, led by outperformance across therapy areas and
High Risk new launches.
Š Brazil’s revenue grew by 19% y-o-y, led by new launches; as per secondary data, Torrent’s growth of
NEGL LOW MED HIGH SEVERE 14% was ahead of BGx market growth of 10% for the quarter ended August 2022.
0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40+ Key negatives
Source: Morningstar Š Delay in the resolution of OAI/WL at Indrad and Dahej plants and high pricing pressures in the US led
to muted performance in the region.
Company details Management Commentary
Š India business is on a steady footing and focus on growing the trade generics business, strong
Market cap: Rs. 53,305 cr growth in branded generics, expanded field force, and strong product pipeline could be key growth
drivers for India business. Management expects mid-teens growth to sustain in the coming quarters.
52-week high/low: Rs. 1,652/1,243 Š Acquisition of Curatio Healthcare was completed in mid-October and it will be integrated by Q3. It
will start adding materially to the company’s revenue from Q4, based on the integration.
NSE volume: Š Brazil to maintain its growth momentum, backed by performance of the top brands, new launches,
2.6 lakh
(No of shares) field force expansion as well as good performance in the generics division. Germany should continue
on a modest positive trend, led by field force expansion and good performance from the acquired
BSE code: 500420 portfolio.
Š US will take time to see recovery in the performance. Torrent has responded to USFDA’s Form 483
NSE code: TORNTPHARM with three observations received for its Gujarat Facility. The company is expected to hear from
USFDA in the next 90 days. The company expects approvals and launch of new products post the
Free float: FDA clearance.
9.7 cr Š Management has indicated that raw-material prices are expected to be stable in the near term.
(No of shares)
Moreover, the logistics cost has come down to Q3FY2022 levels. So, margins are expected to remain
at the current level in the near term.
Shareholding (%) Revision in estimates – Torrent reported soft performance in Q2. We have reduced our earnings
estimates for FY2023 and FY2024 to factor in below-par performance in Q2 and lower-than-earlier
Promoters 71.3 estimated other income. We have introduced FY2025 earnings estimates through this note.
Our Call
FII 11.5
View: Retain Buy with an unchanged PT of Rs. 1,820 – Torrent’s Q2 performance was soft. However, it
DII 9.5 sees a healthy outlook for India business, backed by expanding reach, market share gains, and likely
traction in the new trade generics division. Expected growth in the existing portfolio, and plans to fortify
presence in the covered markets would drive Brazilian sales growth, while elevated cost pressures,
Others 7.7 price erosion, and delays in re-inspection for plants by USFDA could slow down US growth momentum.
Germany is expected to see a good recovery from H2. At the CMP, the stock trades at 38.1x/31.5x its
Price chart FY2023E and FY2024E. Given better growth prospects across Indian and Brazilian businesses, we
retain our Buy recommendation on the stock with an unchanged price target (PT) of Rs. 1,820.
1800
Key Risks
1600 Delays in the resolution of USFDA issues at its plants and heightened competitive pressures in the US.

1400
Valuation (Consolidated) Rs cr
1200
Particulars FY2021 FY2022 FY2023E FY2024E FY2025E
1000
Net sales 8005.0 8508.0 9338.2 10657.3 12042.9
Feb-22
Oct-21

Jun-22

Oct-22

OPM (%) 31.0 28.6 30.0 31.0 31.5

Adjusted net profit 1252.0 1262.0 1405.7 1698.8 2027.6
Price performance EPS (Rs) 36.8 37.1 41.3 50.0 59.6
(%) 1m 3m 6m 12m PER (x) 42.8 42.4 38.1 31.5 26.4
Absolute 4.1 5.4 15.2 2.2 EV/Ebidta (x) 23.4 23.5 20.5 17.1 14.4
P/BV (x) 9.0 8.9 7.8 6.7 5.7
Relative to
0.3 -0.9 11.8 4.9 ROCE (%) 16.9 18.4 21.0 24.1 25.4
Sensex
Sharekhan Research, Bloomberg RONW (%) 23.1 21.1 21.8 22.9 23.4
Source: Company; Sharekhan estimates

October 25, 2022 1

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Muted Q2 - Revenue growth at 7% y-o-y; OPM down by 125 bps y-o-y

Torrent reported revenue growth of 7% y-o-y to Rs. 2,291 crore, backed by 19%, 13%, and 10% y-o-y growth
in Brazil, India, and RoW, respectively, while Europe (Germany) sales declined by 12% y-o-y. Gross margin
marginally declined by ~15 bps y-o-y to 72% and OPM at 29.6% contracted by 125 bps y-o-y. Operating
profit stood at Rs. 679 crore, up 2.9% y-o-y. The y-o-y increase can be attributed to the benefits of operating
leverage playing out. Adjusted PAT for the quarter declined by 1.3% y-o-y to Rs. 312 crore, owing to muted
revenue growth coupled with lower other income (down by 69% y-o-y). For H1FY2023, revenue grew by 7.8%
y-o-y to Rs. 4,553 crore, while PAT increased by 3.1% y-o-y to Rs. 666 crore. OPM declined by 111 bps y-o-y
to 30.6% in H1FY2023.
Torrent Pharma acquired a 100% stake in Curatio in Q2FY2023
Torrent entered into a definitive agreement to acquire 100% stake in Curatio Health Care (I) Private Limited
(Curatio), a dermatology company with a strong focus on cosmetic dermatology. The purchase consideration
for the deal was fixed at Rs. 2,000 crore, including Rs. 115 crore of cash and cash equivalents in the acquired
business (on the date of signing), indicating an enterprise value of Rs. 1,885 crore. The acquisition will be
funded through a mix of debt and internal accruals. The acquisition is in line with the company’s strategy to
focus on India market and fill the gaps in therapy areas. Long-term macro factors, which are favourable for
the acquisition, are growth in dermatology/cosmetics with increased disposable income. The acquisition of
Curatio is a long-term strategic fit for Torrent, as its strong brand portfolio provides immense scope for the
company to build a strong position in the domestic dermatology space.
Q2FY2023 Concall Highlights
Š India business growth ahead of the industry: Torrent’s India business grew by 13% y-o-y to Rs. 1,224 crore
in Q2FY2023. For H1FY2023, revenue was Rs. 2,468 crore, up 13%. Strong performance can be attributed
to new launches, robust performance of the top brands, and market outperformance in focused therapies.
As per AIOCD, the company reported growth of 19% (6% volume, 9% price, and 4% new products) versus
IPM growth of 13%. For the trade generic business, the current contribution is 2.5-3% and management has
indicated that it is steady and sustainable in the near term. The company expects the launch momentum
to continue. Management is positive on maintaining its leadership position in India. Overall, the growing
trade generics business, strong growth in branded generics, increased field force numbers, and a robust
product pipeline could be key growth drivers for the domestic business. Therefore, based on the above
drivers, Torrent expects to outpace IPM growth in FY2023. In the medium term, the company aims to grow
by 3% to 4% above market growth in the domestic business.
Š Brazil market expected to continue its growth momentum: Revenue from Brazil grew by 19% y-o-y
(10% in CC terms) to Rs. 185 crore. For H1FY2023, revenue was Rs. 369 crore, up by 20%. The company
experienced enhanced competition on one of its key launches, Rivaroxaban, and another cardio product,
which led to price reduction. Adjusted for these price reductions, growth for Q2 would have been close to
20%. As per the secondary data from IQVIA, Torrent’s branded generic business is currently growing at
14.4% as compared to the branded generic market growth of 12.1%. The company expects Brazil to continue
its growth momentum, backed by performance of the top brands, new launches, field force expansion as
well as generics division, and growth in double digits in FY2023. In the medium term, the company aims
to grow its Brazil business by 3% to 4% above market growth.
Š Muted quarter for the US business: US sales for the quarter stood at Rs. 292 crore, which is growth of 3%
y-o-y. For H1FY2023, revenue stood at Rs. 591 crore, up by 7%. Capacity utilisation in Q2 stood at 54% and
the company expects it to grow in the medium term. As on September 30, 2022, 48 ANDAs were pending
approval with the USFDA and three tentative approvals were received. USFDA inspected the company’s
manufacturing facility at Indrad, Gujarat. At the end of the inspections, the company got Form 43 with
three observations. The company has already responded to the USFDA within the stipulated time and
expects to hear back from the FDA in the next 90 days. As per management, there is no new capex being
done for US market. Moreover, the goal of the company is no longer to file a high double-digit number

October 25, 2022 2

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of ANDAs but rather rebalance the R&D investment more in favour of markets like Brazil and Germany.
Having said that, there are no plans of the company to become non-competitive or to reduce presence in
the US. Going ahead, management sees US business to be under stress in the near-to-medium term as
competitive intensity is on the higher side and there is sustained price erosion, which could also impact
margins.
Š Another weak quarter for Europe (Germany): Revenue declined by 12% y-o-y to Rs. 220 crore. For
H1FY2023, revenue increased to Rs. 434 crore, down 15% y-o-y. Growth in Germany was impacted by tender
losses in the previous quarters. Torrent has already initiated measures to improve price competitiveness.
The company expects sales in Germany to pick up pace towards the end of the year. In the medium term,
Germany business is expected to deliver high single-digit growth and in the mid-to-high single digits if
there are more tenders (as it will lead to increased competition).
Š Margins to remain stable: Torrent’s OPM declined by 125 bps y-o-y to 29.6%. Management has indicated
that raw-material prices are expected to be stable in the near term. Moreover, the logistics cost has come
down to Q3FY2022 level. So, margins are expected to remain at the current level in the near term.

Results (Consolidated) Rs cr
Particulars Q2FY2023 Q2FY2022 Y-o-Y % Q1FY2023 Q-o-Q %
Total Sales 2,291.0 2,137.0 7.2 2,347.0 -2.4
Expenditure 1,612.0 1,477.0 9.1 1,635.0 -1.4
Operating profit 679.0 660.0 2.9 712.0 -4.6
Other income 16.0 51.0 -68.6 30.0 -46.7
EBITDA 695.0 711.0 -2.3 742.0 -6.3
Interest 69.0 71.0 -2.8 55.0 25.5
Depreciation 163.0 168.0 -3.0 155.0 5.2
PBT 463.0 472.0 -1.9 532.0 -13.0
Taxes 151.0 156.0 -3.2 178.0 -15.2
Adjusted PAT 312.0 316.0 -1.3 354.0 -11.9
EPS (Rs.) 18.4 18.6 -1.3 20.8 -11.9
Margins BPS BPS
OPM % 29.6 30.9 -125 30.3 -70
EBITDA % 30.3 33.3 -293 31.6 -128
Adj. PATM % 13.6 14.8 -117 15.1 -146
Tax % 32.6 33.1 -44 33.5 -85
Source: Company; Sharekhan Research

Region-wise revenue performance

Particulars Q2FY2023 Q2FY2022 Y-o-Y %
India 1,224 1,087 13
US 292 284 3
Germany 220 251 -12
Brazil 185 156 19
Other countries (RoW) 239 219 10
Others 131 140 -7
Total 2,291 2,137 7
Source: Company; Sharekhan Research

October 25, 2022 3

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Outlook and Valuation

n Sector View - Growth momentum to improve
Indian pharmaceutical companies are better placed to harness opportunities and report healthy growth going
ahead. Indian companies are among the most competitive ones globally and hold a sizeable market share in
most developed as well as other markets. Moreover, other factors such as easing of pricing pressures (especially
in the US generics market), rise in product approvals, plant resolutions by the USFDA, strong growth prospects
in domestic markets, and emerging opportunities in the API space would be key growth drivers. This would
be complemented by strong capabilities developed by Indian companies (leading to a shift towards complex
molecules and biosimilars) and the commissioning of expanded capacities by select players over the medium
term. Collectively, this indicates a strong growth potential for pharmaceutical companies going ahead.
n Company Outlook – Indian and Brazilian businesses to stage strong growth
Torrent is a leading pharmaceutical company present in emerging as well as developed markets. The company
has a higher exposure to chronic therapies. Moreover, the company derives a substantial portion of its sales from
India, followed by the US, Germany, and Brazil, which collectively form the core markets. The company has been
outperforming in the Indian as well as Brazilian markets and management expects to sustain traction going ahead
as well and sees these geographies as key growth drivers. Moreover, the German business is expected to gain
traction and stage strong growth ahead, backed by growth in the base business and new product launches. The
company’s US business has been under pressure as two of its plants, which cater to US markets – Dahej and
Indrad – are under the USFDA’s scanner with OAI/WL classification. However, the Levittown plant has commenced
operations and the company expects to launch a new product in the US market from the plant, which could help
it mitigate pricing pressures. A timely and successful resolution of these USFDA observations at its two plants is
critical and could result in earnings upgrades upon resolution.
n Valuation – Retain Buy with an unchanged PT of Rs1,820
Torrent’s Q2 performance was soft. However, it sees a healthy outlook for India business, backed by expanding
reach, market share gains, and likely traction in the new trade generics division. Expected growth in the existing
portfolio, and plans to fortify presence in the covered markets would drive Brazilian sales growth, while elevated
cost pressures, price erosion, and delays in re-inspection for plants by USFDA could slow down US growth
momentum. Germany is expected to see a good recovery from H2. At the CMP, the stock trades at 38.1x/31.5x its
FY2023E and FY2024E. Given better growth prospects across Indian and Brazilian businesses, we retain our Buy
recommendation on the stock with an unchanged PT of Rs. 1,820.
One-year forward P/E (x) band
45
40
35
30
P/E (x)

25
20
15
10
5
0
Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

Apr-20

Apr-21

Apr-22
Oct-14

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17

Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20

Oct-21

Oct-22

P/E (x) Avg. P/E (x) Peak P/E (x) Trough P/E (x)
Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

Peer valuation
CMP O/S P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%)
MCAP
Particulars (Rs / Shares
(Rs Cr) FY22 FY23E FY24E FY22 FY23E FY24E FY22 FY23E FY24E
Share) (Cr)
Torrent Pharma 1575 33.8 53305.2 42.4 38.1 31.5 23.5 20.5 17.1 21.1 21.8 22.9
Cipla 1155.0 80.7 93197.0 34.0 30.0 23.6 20.3 18.3 14.7 14.6 13.9 15.4
Source: Company, Sharekhan estimates

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About company
Torrent, the flagship company of Torrent Group, was incorporated in 1972. Torrent has a strong international
presence across 40 countries with operations in regulated and emerging markets such as the US, Europe,
Brazil, and RoW. The company operates through its wholly owned subsidiaries spread across 12 nations
with major setups in Brazil, Germany, and the US. The company is also one of the leading pharmaceutical
companies present in India as a dominant player in the therapeutic areas of cardiovascular (CV) and central
nervous system (CNS). The company also has a significant presence in gastro-intestinal, diabetology, anti-
infectives, and pain management segments.

Investment theme
Torrent continues to focus on a branded business mix from India and Brazil, which balances well for sustainable
growth in a challenging global environment for the pharma sector. US business is also stable. Operating
leverage from the acquired domestic business is visible from FY2020. Three manufacturing plants of Torrent
are reeling under regulatory issues with a warning letter being issued by the USFDA. Management expects
at least 12-15 months for the issues to be resolved; and till such time, approvals from these plants would be
withheld. Torrent has submitted its responses to the regulator and is awaiting a revert on this. Timely and
successful resolution of USFDA issues is critical from a growth perspective.

Key Risks
Š Slowdown in ANDA approvals and USFDA-related regulatory risks could hurt business prospects.
Š Delay in product launches in Brazil, Germany, and the US could restrict growth in these key geographies.
Š Currency fluctuation poses a risk to export businesses.

Additional Data
Key management personnel
Mr. Sudhir Mehta Chairman (Emeritus)
Mr. Samir Mehta Executive Chairman
Mr. Sudhir Menon CFO
Source: Company Website

Top 10 shareholders
Sr. No. Holder Name Holding (%)
1 Mirae Asset Global Investments 1.84
2 ICICI Prudential Life Insurance 1.40
3 Kotak Mahindra AMC 1.07
4 Nippon Life India AMC 1.02
5 Vanguard Group Inc. 0.96
6 BlackRock Inc. 0.91
7 UTI AMC 0.90
8 FMR LLC 0.83
9 T Rowe Price Group Inc. 0.79
10 Norges Bank 0.71
Source: Bloomberg

Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.

October 25, 2022 5

Understanding the Sharekhan 3R Matrix
Right Sector
Positive Strong industry fundamentals (favorable demand-supply scenario, consistent
industry growth), increasing investments, higher entry barrier, and favorable
government policies
Neutral Stagnancy in the industry growth due to macro factors and lower incremental
investments by Government/private companies
Negative Unable to recover from low in the stable economic environment, adverse
government policies affecting the business fundamentals and global challenges
(currency headwinds and unfavorable policies implemented by global industrial
institutions) and any significant increase in commodity prices affecting profitability.
Right Quality
Positive Sector leader, Strong management bandwidth, Strong financial track-record,
Healthy Balance sheet/cash flows, differentiated product/service portfolio and
Good corporate governance.
Neutral Macro slowdown affecting near term growth profile, Untoward events such as
natural calamities resulting in near term uncertainty, Company specific events
such as factory shutdown, lack of positive triggers/events in near term, raw
material price movement turning unfavourable
Negative Weakening growth trend led by led by external/internal factors, reshuffling of
key management personal, questionable corporate governance, high commodity
prices/weak realisation environment resulting in margin pressure and detoriating
balance sheet
Right Valuation
Positive Strong earnings growth expectation and improving return ratios but valuations
are trading at discount to industry leaders/historical average multiples, Expansion
in valuation multiple due to expected outperformance amongst its peers and
Industry up-cycle with conducive business environment.
Neutral Trading at par to historical valuations and having limited scope of expansion in
valuation multiples.
Negative Trading at premium valuations but earnings outlook are weak; Emergence of
roadblocks such as corporate governance issue, adverse government policies
and bleak global macro environment etc warranting for lower than historical
valuation multiple.
Source: Sharekhan Research
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