South Korea's Crude Imports Decline
South Korea's Crude Imports Decline
Platts European Naphtha Daily Market Analysis.......................... . . . . . . . . . . 18 US wholesale posted prices effective Sep 23. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................... 47
Commodity Insights Analytics Weekly Feeder Crudes: September 25 -
VGO exports from Europe rise 2% on week to 1,750,448 mt: Kpler. . ........ . . . . . . . . . 18
September 29, 2023.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................... 48
JAPAN DATA: August LPG stocks rise 8.6% on month as demand contracts. . . . . . . . 19 Commodity Insights Analytics Weekly Feeder Crudes (continued)................... 50
Platts Middle Eastern LPG Daily Commentary............................ . . . . . . . . . . 19 Commodity Insights Analytics Monthly Average Yields & Netbacks, August 2023..... 51
complex, the same trader said, noting the value of the Russian North Sea BFOET Nov crude loadings
grade would still be below other grades. to fall 25,591 b/d on month to 606,667 b/d
As of Sept. 28, the November Oman cash-futures spread
averaged $2.48/b in September, up from an average of $2.10/b Loadings of the BFOET crudes in the Dated Brent basket
for October in August, data from S&P Global Commodity will average 606,667 b/d in November, down 25,591 b/d month
Insights showed. on month, according to loading program data compiled by S&P
The November Dubai cash-futures spread — a measure of Global Commodity Insights Sept. 29.
the market structure — averaged $2.47/b to date in September, Some 18.2 million barrels are expected to load in November,
up from an average of $1.98/b for October in August, S&P Global down from 19.6 million barrels set to load in October, with the
data showed. total number of cargoes falling from 28 to 26.
Values of ESPO Blend to China’s independent refiners have Brent will load one fewer cargo in November than October,
also jumped to premiums above $1/b to January ICE Brent crude while Forties, Oseberg and Troll loadings will remain unchanged
oil futures on a DES Shandong basis, according to trade sources. at eight, three and five cargoes, respectively. Troll and Ekofisk
The rise in premiums against the forward ICE Brent futures had one cargo each deferred into November-loading, bolstering
curve also came amid steepening backwardation in the Brent volumes for the upcoming month.
structure. In total seven October loading Ekofisk cargoes were deferred
Chinese mega independent refiner Shenghong was heard to late Sept. 25 by four days owing to a field outage, according to an
have bought two 100,000-mt ESPO Blend cargoes for November updated October-loading program seen by S&P Global, with one
delivery, at a premium of around 85 cents/b to Dubai on pushed into November. Ekofisk is now set to load nine cargoes in
delivered basis. November, still one fewer than October.
This was up from October-delivery cargoes priced against In November, Ekofisk will account for the largest proportion
Dubai at discounts of 60-80 cents/b. Trades priced against ICE of BFOET volumes at 35%, followed by Forties at 31% and
Brent futures were last heard at a premium of 25 cents/b to Troll at 19%.
December ICE Brent futures, DES, for October delivery. — Sam Angell
Buyers cautious amid expected import quota cap Japan secures ample sour crude from UAE in Aug,
The uptick saw a few other buyers retreat cautiously to the but Middle East prices seen expensive
sidelines for now and holding on to buying interest at premiums
of 50 cents/b to $1/b to January ICE Brent futures, DES. ADNOC respecting Asian customers’ term supply deals
The cautiousness also came amid an official with China’s top Traders, refiners find Saudi OSP premiums expensive
planner National Development Reform Commission indicating it
would not issue additional allowances for crude oil imports and Japan secured ample sour crude supply from the UAE in
product exports this year, S&P Global reported previously. August, as it picked up almost 10% more light and medium sour
Sources said the NDRC indicated that no more extra crude Abu Dhabi grades from a year earlier, though refiners and traders
import quotas will be issued this year beyond the annual have raised concerns over rising costs amid an expensive Middle
allocation ceiling for refining quota holders. Eastern price structure.
The government allocated 171.06 million mt of crude import The country received 1.15 million b/d of crude oil from its top
quotas in 2023, accounting for 94.2% of the refineries’ annual supplier UAE in August, up 9.5% from a year earlier and up 18.6%
quota ceiling of 181.50 million mt — leaving 10.45 million mt of from July, data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
quotas remaining under 2023, S&P Global data showed. showed Sept. 29.
One trade source expected the remaining quotas would be Despite OPEC and its alliance members’ firm stance to
allocated to four or five refiners. control and limit the group’s crude production levels, refiners
A few independent refiners were understood to have boosted across Northeast Asia have had little trouble securing adequate
their ESPO Blend purchases for September and October delivery. Middle Eastern sour crude as top Persian Gulf producers
This was despite September exports of ESPO Blend being typically prioritize their key customers in the Far East, feedstock
limited to an estimate 32 cargoes due to berth maintenance over management sources at major Japanese and South Korean
Sept. 13-15. refiners told S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Overall, some refineries, which had purchased extra barrels in “Securing adequate Middle Eastern term supplies is never an
the hope of receiving additional quotas, have had to place them issue since big suppliers like ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.)
in bonded storage. and Aramco greatly respect Japanese customers,” a sour crude
Greenfield Yulong Petrochemical though, will receive quotas to trading and logistics manager at a major Japanese refiner said.
bring in crude barrels for trial runs by year-end. ADNOC has allocated full term supplies to most Asian buyers
— Irene Tang in Northeast and South Asia for December-loading crude,
according to market participants surveyed by S&P Global. The Japan’s top 10 crude suppliers (Unit: b/d)
producer has been keeping allocations to its Asian buyers whole Aug 2023 Aug 2022 % chg on July 2023 % chg on
Supplier Share (%)
so far through most of this year, though requests for increments (b/d) (b/d) year (b/d) month
UAE 1,148,861 46.0 1,049,323 9.5 968,345 18.6
have not been met. Saudi Arabia 901,463 36.1 1,190,863 -24.3 894,369 0.8
Kuwait 152,884 6.1 309,693 -50.6 249,769 -38.8
Qatar 95,111 3.8 220,522 -56.9 97,567 -2.5
Expensive Middle East crude complex Ecuador 69,331 2.8 72,774 -4.7 18,283 279.2
However, the overall sour crude price structure is looking Oman 48,248 1.9 41,662 15.8 0 n/a
Australia 24,626 1.0 2,559 862.2 3,178 674.9
expensive, and official selling price premiums and outright prices US 22,450 0.9 80,775 -72.2 70,211 -68.0
Bahrain 15,376 0.6 4,943 211.1 15,645 -1.7
are bound to extend the uptrend. This bodes ill for Asia’s fourth- Vietnam 9,689 0.4 8,013 20.9 21,186 -54.3
biggest crude importer, which depends on Persian Gulf producers Other 9,667 0.4 0 n/a 0 n/a
Total 2,497,707 100.0 2,981,128 -16.2 2,338,553 6.8
for more than 95% of its crude requirement, according to crude
procurement and logistics management sources at two Japanese Supplier Jan-Aug 2023 Jan-Aug 2022 % chg on year
Saudi Arabia 1,022,022 1,052,460 -2.9
refiners based in Tokyo. UAE 1,009,512 995,918 1.4
Crude imports from Saudi Arabia in August fell 24.3% year on Kuwait 239,471 224,531 6.7
Qatar 130,728 218,220 -40.1
year to 901,463 b/d, while shipments from Kuwait tumbled 50.6% US 40,583 14,458 180.7
from a year earlier to 152,884 b/d, METI data showed. Ecuador 31,388 53,464 -41.3
Oman 30,830 32,058 -3.8
In total, Japan’s August crude imports dropped 16.2% from a Bahrain 12,139 30,218 -59.8
year earlier to 2.498 million b/d. Australia 8,971 6,447 39.1
Vietnam 5,001 5,904 -15.3
A feedstock management source at ENEOS noted the Other 15,986 88,725 -82.0
Japanese yen has been “extremely weak” this year, and said it is Total 2,546,630 2,722,403 -6.5
“always important” to find the right term-spot purchasing ratio Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
when both outright prices and OSP price differentials are on
the rise].
Japanese crude traders expect Saudi Aramco to once again underpinned by additional voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia
lift official selling price differentials for most of its Asia-bound and Russia.
crude grades, raising concerns that rising feedstock costs may The OSP differential for Saudi Arab Light crude has risen in
squeeze refining margins. four consecutive months to a premium of $3.60/b against the
Much of the Middle Eastern sour crude complex remained Oman/Dubai average for October, and most Japanese and other
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Asian traders surveyed by S&P Global said they expect Aramco The number of convergence cargoes declared was last lower
to raise the OSP differential for the grade by 30-50 cents/b for in August 2022, when two were declared for October loading.
November. Trade sources attributed the thin activity to tightness in the
Saudi OSPs are looking expensive and refinery run rates have Middle East sour crude market, with November-loading cargoes
been under pressure since early August amid dismal industrial said to have been already cleared.
sector fuel demand, refinery sources and market analysts said. The tightness was exacerbated by lower exports of the
Japan’s weekly average refinery run rate fell to 74.2% during medium sour Al-Shaheen grade in November due to field
Sept. 17-23, down from 84% in the week of Aug. 6-12, data from maintenance, and a greater demand shift in Northeast Asia
the Petroleum Association of Japan showed. towards Middle East grades as cash differentials for arbitrage
Also, Japan’s manufacturing output fell for a fourth straight cargoes soared.
month in September and at a faster rate than in August. One source expected tightness to persist into the December-
New orders for Japanese manufactured goods declined at loading market amid ongoing cuts by Saudi Arabia and OPEC+
a historically elevated pace in September as global market members.
conditions worsened and with destocking efforts still ongoing at A convergence occurs when 20 partials are traded between
clients, according to anecdotal evidence, S&P Global economics two counterparties, resulting in a full 500,000-barrel physical
analyst Jingyi Pan said. cargo being declared from the seller to the buyer.
“Japan’s business confidence in September also eased from For Dubai partials, the seller has the option to deliver Dubai,
August, and the sustained shedding of the volume of backlogged Oman, Upper Zakum, Al-Shaheen or Murban, with a quality
work in the manufacturing sector further outline the likelihood for premium, to the buyer.
the downturn to persist,” Pan said in a recent report. For Oman partials, the seller has the option to deliver Oman or
— Gawoon Vahn, Irene Tang, Rong wei Neo Murban, with a quality premium, to the buyer.
— Irene Tang
Platts November cash Dubai crude closes
at $96.12/b, averages $93.310/b in September TURKEY DATA: July crude imports down 24%
on month as Kazakh volumes surge
Nov cash Oman crude closes at $96.16/b, averages
$93.323/b in Sept Russian imports down 44% on month, Iraq imports down 32%
Dubai cash-futures spread averages $2.57/b in Sept versus Kazakh volumes surge 63% as exports via BTC continue
$1.98/b in Aug Oil product imports down 19% on June, up 32% on year
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Turkey’s crude oil imports in July averaged 571,528 b/d, down
benchmark November cash Dubai crude at $96.12/b Sept. 29, the 24.3% from June and down 19.3% on the year, data from energy
last day of trading for November-loading cargoes of the Middle regulator EPDK showed.
Eastern crude. June’s imports were the highest recorded this year, up 26.2%
November cash Dubai assessments averaged $93.310/b in up on March, the previous peak.
September, up from an average of $86.465/b for front-month Russia remained Turkey’s top crude supplier for a second
October cash Dubai in August, S&P Global data showed. month but at 295,517 b/d imports down 43.5% on June and down
November cash Oman crude was assessed at $96.16/b Sept. 33.7% year on year.
29, averaging $93.323/b in September, up from an average of Turkey’s imports of Russian crude have see-sawed this year,
$86.590/b for front-month October cash Oman in August. apparently as importers have sought to balance price discounts
In September, cash Oman’s premium to cash Dubai was at 1.3 with concerns over EU sanctions imposed on Russia due to its
cent/b, down from 12.6 cents/b in August. invasion of Ukraine.
The Dubai cash-futures spread, a measure of the market Iraq remained Turkey’s second biggest crude supplier, with
structure, widened to average $2.575/b in September, up 60 imports averaging just 177,881 b/d, down 31.7% on June and down
cents/b from $1.975/b in August. 29.3% year on year.
The Platts Market on Close assessment process Sept. 29 saw All of Turkey’s imports from Iraq were of Basrah crude grades
no partials traded. due to the ongoing closure of the Iraq-Turkey pipeline. Turkey’s
For the whole of September, a total 100 partials traded, all of energy minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on Sept. 14 that the Iraq-
which were Dubai partials. Turkey oil pipeline was “technically ready” and could be reopened
A total of three convergence cargoes were declared during the “soon” but cautioned that continuing legal disputes between
month, all of which were for Upper Zakum cargoes. Turkey and Iraq could delay the reopening.
The number of partials traded in September was the lowest With imports of both Russian and Iraqi crude falling more
since January 2021, when 86 partials were traded for March steeply than the overall drop in imports, the beneficiary was
loading, S&P Global data showed. Kazakhstan. July imports of Kazakh crude averaged 153,165 b/d
up 62.5% on June, and up 63.0% year on year. ADNOC allocates full December term crude supply
The surge follows an increase in flows of Kazakh crude along to most Asian buyers
the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, after an agreement
earlier this year between Azerbaijan’s Socar and Kazakhstan’s Abu Dhabi National Oil Co, or ADNOC, has allocated full term
KazMunaiGaz for transit of 1.5 million mt/year (30,000 b/d) of supplies to most Asian buyers in Northeast and South Asia
Kazakh crude to Turkey’s Mediterranean oil hub at Ceyhan. for December-loading crude, according to market participants
Imports from Turkey’s lesser crude suppliers were squeezed surveyed by S&P Global Commodity Insights.
in July with no imports from recent regular suppliers Guyana, ADNOC was not immediately available for comment, while
Tunisia, Italy, or Libya and sharply reduced volumes from allocations to other Asian buyers could not be immediately
Saudi Arabia confirmed.
Imports from Saudi Arabia had surged in June but fell sharply The producer has been keeping allocations to its Asian buyers
in July to just 28,059 b/d, down 58.0% on the month and down whole so far through most of this year, though requests for
38.3% year on year. increments have not been met.
Nigeria, another of Turkey’s regular suppliers, shipped 29,994 For December, ADNOC had forecast its flagship Murban crude
b/d, up 56.0% on June but down 29.3% year on year with the only available for export at 1.352 million b/d, compared with 1.337
imports being from US, averaging 19,401 b/d, up 263.3% on June, million b/d in November, S&P Global reported previously.
and compared to zero a year earlier. Further out, available Murban exports will rise to 1.527 million
b/d in January and to 1.513 million b/d in February due to a
Tupras dominates planned turnaround at ADNOC Refining’s 837,000 b/d Ruwais
Turkey’s main refiner Tupras imported 373,988 b/d, down refinery.
25.6% on June and down 21.6% year on year. It accounted for Separately, Oman was understood not to have made any
65.4% of July crude imports, down from 66.6% in June. cuts to its December allocations to Asian buyers, according to a
Socar’s Star refinery accounted for the rest of the imports in trade source.
July, averaging 197,540 b/d, down 21.5% on June and down 14.9% Saudi Aramco and other Middle Eastern producers are
year on year. expected to release their term allocations and official selling
The sharp fall in imports by Tupras followed a sharp rise prices in the coming days.
in imports in June following the completion of a maintenance — Irene Tang
shutdown at its 108,000 b/d Kirikkale plant and revamps of six
units at its 220,000 b/d Izmir refinery. Platts North Sea Crude Daily Market Analysis
In loadings news, BFOET crude volumes in the Dated Brent Americas Crude
basket will average 606,667 b/d in November, down 25,591 b/d Brazil crude exports rise 5.8% on month in August
month on month, according to loading program data compiled by to 1.8 mil b/d amid production boost
S&P Global Commodity Insights Sept. 29.
Some 18.2 million barrels are expected to load in November, Exports up more than a third on year
down from 19.6 million barrels set to load in October, with the New FPSOs driving output growth
total number of cargoes falling from 28 to 26. The volumes have Refined product exports climb
been affected by recent adjustments to October-loading Troll and
Ekofisk load dates with each grade having one cargo originally Brazilian crude oil exports in August climbed 5.8% on
scheduled for October deferred into November. the month amid a series of production records driven by the
— Sam Angell installation of new floating production units at offshore fields, the
National Petroleum Agency, or ANP, said Sept. 29.
Platts West African Crude Daily Commentary Oil companies operating in Brazil shipped 56.642 million
barrels (1.827 million b/d) overseas in August, up from 53.520
Nigerian offers will need to soften to gage interest: traders million barrels (1.726 million b/d) in July and up 35.9% from 41.678
Widening EFS puts Angolan differentials under pressure million barrels (1.344 million b/d) in August 2022, the ANP said.
The latest increase in crude exports came after two consecutive
The Nigerian crude oil market may be approaching its peak months of record oil production as recently installed FPSOs ramped
amid competition from other grades, traders said Sept. 29. up output from the Buzios, Itapu and Marlim offshore fields. Oil
“Levels look to be topping out now,” said one trader. “I think companies operating in Brazil pumped a record 3.513 million b/d in
demand will be OK but sellers will have to be realistic with July, topping the previous record of 3.367 million b/d set in June.
offers.” The ANP has not yet released its August oil and natural gas
The trader cited backwardation in market structure and production report.
weakness in other grades as factors applying pressure to the The surge in oil exports also came amid greater domestic
Nigerian market. crude processing, with state-led oil company Petrobras
“Structure is an absolute killer for long-haul crude,” they increasing refinery capacity utilization rates to 97.3% in August,
added. “And alternatives are cheaper again.” the highest level since 2015.
It was a similar story in the Angolan market, with a The increase in domestic crude processing followed a
combination of backwardation and a rising Brent-Dubai shift in Petrobras’ commercial strategy that industry officials
exchange of futures for swaps contract threatening Angolan had expected to reduce the volume of oil available for
differentials. overseas shipments. Petrobras ended its import-parity pricing
“Angola’s natural market is east and there are cheaper policy, shifting its focus to meeting domestic demand and
alternatives there,” a second trader said. reducing prices.
Despite Angolan barrels clearing well so far, structure Brazil imported 8.906 million barrels (287,290 b/d) of crude
and EFS strength were limiting Western demand, the second in August, falling 13.1% from 10.251 million barrels in July but up
trader added. 24.8% from 7.136 million barrels in August 2022, the ANP said.
Platts assessed the EFS at $3.99/b at the London close Sept. Oil imports have turned upward since mid-2022 after trending
28, its widest assessment since February. lower for much of the previous decade, when growing output
“The West can’t take it all, and we will need to wait for of high-quality light oil from the subsalt reduced Brazil’s need
differentials to fall if backwardation and the Brent-Dubai spread for blending grades. Brazil typically imports light grades and
do not ease,” the second trader said. condensates used for blending and lubricants production.
Chad will export 3.8 million barrels of its Doba crude grade
through November, according to a copy of the loading program Product export growth
seen by S&P Global Commodity Insights Sept. 29. Refined product exports also continued to post solid growth
The program consists of four cargoes, the same number amid rising shipments of low-sulfur bunker fuel and fuel oil, the
scheduled for October loading, with average loadings rising to ANP data showed.
126,667 b/d owing to the shorter month. Brazil exported 12.927 million barrels of refined products in
Doba, with a gravity of 25.8 API and a sulfur content of 0.09%, August, increasing 3.0% from July’s 12.548 million barrels and
is known in the market for yielding a large percentage of low jumping 51.6% from 8.526 million barrels in August 2022, the
sulfur vacuum gasoil, fuel oil and residue. ANP said.
Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights Bunker fuel and fuel oil shipments rose 2.0% on the month to
— Joey Daly 9.198 million barrels in August, which was a 38.3% year on year
increase from 6.653 million barrels in August 2022, the ANP said. producer, saw its crude production increase 8.9% to 301,672 b/d
Refined product imports climbed 11.3% on the month to in August from the year-earlier month and hold steady compared
19.940 million barrels amid seasonal demand during the oil seed with July, the data showed.
and sugarcane harvests, but were down 18.3% year on year from
24.412 million barrels in August 2022, the ANP said. Gas output edges up
Imports of diesel and gasoline, Brazil’s top two refined Gas production rose a year-on-year 2% in August to an
products in terms of consumption, have been volatile in recent average of 144.1 million cu m/d, and was up 4.6% from July.
months amid Petrobras’ shift away from import-parity pricing. Gas production has been recovering from a low of 114.2 million
The change slammed shut arbitrage windows for third-party cu m/d in April 2021, fueled by a rise in local wellhead prices and
importers, which have historically supplied about 25% of Brazil’s the construction of new takeaway capacity from Vaca Muerta.
diesel demand and about 15% of gasoline consumption. The first 11 million cu m/d of capacity on a new gas pipeline for
Arbitrage windows, however, opened slightly after Petrobras moving supplies out of Vaca Muerta came online in August and is
implemented substantial diesel and gasoline price hikes in mid- expected to reach 22 million cu m/d by the end of the year before
August to counter growing international market volatility. hitting the full capacity of 40 million cu m/d in 2025.
Diesel imports totaled 8.253 million barrels in August, down YPF’s gas production fell 5.4% to 35.3 million cu m/d in
28.9% from 11.616 million barrels in August 2022 but up 23.7% August, year on year, and declined 0.3% from July, according to
from 6.671 million barrels in July. the Energy Secretariat.
Gasoline imports totaled 2.660 million barrels in August, Argentina’s total gas exports fell to 2.2 million cu m/d in August
up 37.3% from 1.937 million barrels in August 2022 and nearly from 3.5 million cu m/d in the year-earlier month, according to
doubling from July’s 1.335 million barrels. the Energy Secretariat. Gas shipments, which primarily go to Chile
— Jeff Fick and in lesser amounts to Brazil and Uruguay, tend to decline in
the Southern Hemisphere winter months of June, July and August,
Argentina oil output rises 6.5% on year in August; when local demand surges from a year-round average of 140
gas production grows 2% million cu m/d to peaks of 200 million cu m/d. The country imports
gas from Bolivia and as LNG during the winter to meet those peaks.
Crude production hits 621,770 b/d — Charles Newbery
Oil exports increase 31%, with Medanito outflows
Gas exports slip 37% on higher local demand Platts US Gulf Coast Export Crude Daily
Commentary
Argentina’s oil production rose 6.5% to 621,770 b/d in August
from the year-earlier month, while natural gas output increased Platts AGS rises as futures weaken
2% to 144.4 million cu m/d over the same period, the Energy US crude exports expected to rise
Secretariat said Sept. 29.
August oil production was up 0.8% from the output level in Platts American GulfCoast Select (AGS) closed weaker along
July, the secretariat said in a data report. with crude futures Sept. 29.
Oil producers have been ramping up production in Argentina Platts assessed AGS at $92.78/b, 67 cents/b lower day on day.
to develop the massive resources in Vaca Muerta, one of the However, the Platts AGS premium over the NYMEX WTI strip
world’s biggest shale plays. The northern Patagonian play has rose by 24 cents to $3.45/b.
led a recovery in the country’s production from a low of 447,614 The AGS discount to the forward Dated Brent strip narrowed
b/d in mid-2020, when a lockdown for the pandemic depressed by 27 cents, from $1.47/b to $1.20/b.
domestic demand, where the brunt of the crude is sold. Oil Crude futures sagged to end the week. NYMEX WTI settled
production has since surpassed the pre-pandemic level of down 92 cents to $90.79/b, while Brent futures settled at
520,000 b/d in March 2020 to nearly touch the most-recent high $95.34/b, down 4 cents day on day.
of 623,000 b/d in 2009, according to Energy Secretariat data. Though US crude exports were down last week, data from
With oil production running above the 550,000 b/d of average Platts cFlow ship and commodity tracking software from S&P
demand, producers are exporting more supplies, including Global Commodity Insights forecast a rise in export totals
Medanito, a sweet light crude produced in Vaca Muerta and the through the week ended Sept. 29. The data showed US crude
Neuquén basin. exports at 4.73 million b/d, more than 700,000 higher than the US
Argentina’s total crude exports shot up 31% to an average of Energy Information Administration’s reported total of 4 million b/d
132,513 b/d in August from 101,337 b/d in the year-earlier period, for the week ended Sept. 22.
led by a 67% increase in Medanito shipments to 98,062 b/d The latest S&P Global data showed the WTI Magellan East
from 58,552 b/d over the same period, according to the Energy Houston crude arbitrage versus Forties open into Northwest
Secretariat data. Medanito was the most exported type of crude Europe by $2.06/b, the highest since April.
in both periods. Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
YPF, the country’s state-run energy company and biggest oil — James Jones
likely to safeguard their stockpiles. Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
“We are always short of those products and need to have
appropriate inventories. So exporting those products wouldn’t be — Rong wei Neo, Hiroyuki Koshoji, Akihiro Gotoda
our option,” said a refiner source.
Japan has stocked 17.1 million barrels of kerosene as of Sept. SINGAPORE DATA: Light distillate stocks slip 2%
23, up 24.9% year on year, data from the Petroleum Association of on week as gasoline exports rise
Japan showed.
In August, the country’s kerosene imports surged more than Gasoline exports rise 25.15% on week; net exports climbs
eight-fold month on month to 11,450 b/d. In the first eight months Naphtha, reformate, blendstock imports gains 8.16% on week
of this year, Japan imported 28,717 b/d of kerosene, up 34% year
on year. Singapore’s commercial stockpiles of light distillates slipped
Japan’s oil product imports (b/d) 1.86% in the week to Sept. 27 as gasoline exports increased,
Aug-23 Aug-22 % Change Jul-23 % Change Enterprise Singapore data released Sept. 28 showed.
Gasoline 73,622 56,589 30.1 63,507 15.9
Naphtha 504,714 476,595 5.9 405,938 24.3
Total stocks of light distillates, which include gasoline,
Jet Fuel 1,255 0 -100 1,199 4.7 reformate and naphtha but exclude gases like LPG, declined to
Kerosene 11,450 10,124 13.1 1,336 756.9
Gasoil 11,075 4,131 168.1 36,315 -69.5
12.89 million barrels during the week ended Sept. 27 from 13.138
Fuel Oil A 0 0 -100 2,458 -100.0 million barrels the previous week. Stocks were last lower in the
Fuel Oil B, C 10,249 44,561 -77 6,642 54.3
Total 612,365 592,229 3.4 517,395 18.4
week to Sept. 13 at 12.33 million barrels, the data showed.
Singapore’s gasoline exports rose 25.15% week on week to California Air Resources Board advances winter
804,846 mt, while imports were up 24.36% at 474,317 mt, pushing gasoline specifications effective Sep 28
net gasoline exports to 330,528 mt in the week to Sept. 27, up
from 261,702 mt the previous week, the data showed. Waiver to mitigate high California prices
Outflows to Taiwan shot up by more than fourteenfold Waiver will run through Oct. 31
week on week to 53,964 mt in the week ended Sept. 27, the Second consecutive year RVP waiver issued
data showed, amid a planned refinery turnaround, market
sources said. The California Air Resources Board issued a gasoline volatility
Taiwan’s state-run CPC Corp was slated to shut its 150,000 b/d waiver effective Sept. 28, moving forward the transition date from
No. 12 CDU and the 80,000 b/d residue fluid catalytic cracker at summer grade gasoline to cheaper winter grade gasoline in an
its Dalin refinery for planned maintenance Sept. 18, S&P Global effort to curb rising California gasoline prices.
Commodity Insights had reported. “The gasoline market in California is currently experiencing
The fall in gasoline imports came as inflows from China very high prices for reasons that the California Energy
declined 9.87% week on week to 183,617 mt, the data showed. Commission is examining, which may include an unusual spot
Chinese gasoline inflows into Singapore fell on the back of market transaction, refinery maintenance and undersupply, and
deteriorating Chinese export margins and ahead of an expected global crude oil prices,” said the waiver statement.
increase in domestic demand amid the Golden Week festivities in The waiver was issued after a Sept. 27 letter from California
early October. governor Gavin Newsom who requested the Division of Petroleum
Gasoline exports from China could fall further in October Market Oversight of the California Energy Commission issue a
after a rumor that China will release additional oil product export waiver. The waiver will remain in effect until Oct. 31, 2023 when
quotas this year was quelled. the winter grade specification switch is scheduled to begin.
Market participants said Asian gasoline prices could face The waiver will accelerate by about a month California’s
some downward pressure in the weeks ahead as participants scheduled gasoline transition from 7.0 RVP summer grade to
continued to expect lower US gasoline demand ahead of the winter specifications. This is the second consecutive year that
winter period. California has switched early from summer grade to winter grade,
The Platts-assessed front month FOB Singapore 92 RON according to the California Air Resources Board website.
gasoline swap crack against Brent swaps was at $5.23/b Sept. Summer grade gasoline is more expensive to produce, requiring
28 , down from $5.78/b at the Asian close Sept. 27, S&P Global more expensive blend stocks such as reformates and alkylates to
data showed. produce fuel that will burn more cleanly in warmer temperatures,
thus producing less emissions. Winter grade gasoline can increase
Naphtha imports rise the blending volume of less expensive butane.
Singapore’s light naphtha, reformate and blendstock imports Los Angeles was heard last offered at NYMEX November
rose 8.16% week on week to 194,879 mt in the week ended Sept. futures plus 80 cents/gal Sept. 29, while San Francisco CARBOB
27, Enterprise Singapore data showed. was last heard offered at futures plus 80 cents/gal.
A spike in shipments from the Middle East boosted imports
despite a lack of Russian inflows. The Middle East was typically
the main supplier to the region, and accounted for 102,438 mt of
imports, a 100.90% week-on-week rise, the data showed.
Shipments from Russia was expected to remain thin for H1
October as fewer cargoes were heard for that trading period last
month, market sources said.
Singapore’s exports of naphtha, reformates and other
blendstocks fell 85.43% on the week to 4,471 mt, which was
shipped to Thailand, the data showed.
Asia’s naphtha market strength was heard to have been — Sarah de Lucia Hernandez, Janet Mcgurty
weighed down by losses in the gasoline market, sources said.
The Platts-assessed CFR Japan naphtha physical crack Higher RVP gasoline barrels
spread against front month ICE Brent crude futures slipped in tight supply on US Gulf Coast
into negative territory for the first time in two months at
$16.90/mt at Sept. 28’s Asian close, S&P Global data showed. Plus 1 RVP adjustment narrows to 1 cent/gal
The physical crack was last in negative territory on July 27 at Regular 14.5 RVP CBOB “impossible to find”
minus 52.5 cents/mt, and was last lower on July 18 at minus
$21.875/mt. The US Gulf Coast gasoline market saw a tightening RVP
— Joshua Ong, Wanda Wang adjustment Sept. 28 ahead of the second winter RVP shift in
October, and on premium grades, lower RVP material weakened bound for West Africa, three for trans-Atlantic voyages or with TA
against higher RVP barrels. options, and the rest a mix of options including the Persian Gulf.
The plus 1 RVP adjustment narrowed to 1.00 cent/gal as In the Northwest European market, values sank amid a
prompt-cycle regular 14.5 RVP CBOB was bid higher during the “market correction,” according to sources. The swap tanked
Platts Market on Close assessment process. $40.25/mt and the crack spread fell $3.58/b.
“Folks are finding it difficult to nigh impossible to find [regular However, premium barge values were supported. Premium
14.5 RVP CBOB] sellers right now,” a market source said Sept. 28. unleaded 10 ppm barges were assessed at a $35.25/mt premium
No offers were seen on the day for regular 14.5 RVP CBOB to Eurobob on a strong traded bid, up from $20.75/mt the
during the MOC, either. day prior.
Platts assessed prompt regular 12.5 RVP CBOB at NYMEX “People are looking to finished grade, they’re cautious in
November RBOB futures minus 1.50 cents/gal and regular 14.5 terms of blending given turnarounds around the corner and the
RVP CBOB at futures minus 3.50 cents/gal. collapse in the gas-nap spread,” a trader in Europe said.
CIF cargoes were heard to be stable, having grown to a $92/
Lower RVP premium barrels rise in value against high RVP mt premium to Eurobob barges from $55/mt at the beginning of
material September.
Physical prices for regular 12.5 RVP CBOB and regular In the Mediterranean, supply and demand were heard to be
13.5 RVP RBOB were stable in daily comparison but premium balanced, with no major movements in the market.
grades moved. The October FOB AR Eurobob barge swap fell $40.25/mt to
Premium 13.5 RVP RBOB fell by 2.00 cents to November RBOB $839.75/mt. The front-month FOB ARA Eurobob gasoline barge
plus 35.00 cents/gal, while premium 12.5 RVP CBOB rose 2.00 crack was down $3.58/b to $8.57/b.
cents to November RBOB plus 40 cents/gal. The October/November spread dropped $5.50/mt to
“Higher RVP barrels will continue to get hit,” a second market $33.50/mt, while November/December was in a $21.50/mt
source said. “More butane is coming into stuff. Lower RVP is more backwardation, down $6.50/mt on the day.
valuable as you can jam butane in and re-blend.” The Med/North gasoline differential — the spread between
the FOB Mediterranean 10 ppm cargo swap and the equivalent
Prompt-cycle regular RBOB arb to NYH unworkable FOB Amsterdam-Rotterdam Eurobob barge — was assessed up
Prompt-cycle regular RBOB is scheduled to arrive in New York $1/mt at $9/mt October, while November rose $2/mt at $13/mt.
Harbor at the end of October. Given flat line space and Colonial — Matthew Tracey-cook
Pipeline tariffs, RBOB sent via the pipeline is 150 points more
expensive than taking delivery on the October contract, the Platts US Gasoline Daily Market Analysis
second market source said.
Regular RBOB “looks very expensive to me,” he said. CARB issues summer specification waiver in California
Platts assessed regular 13.5 RVP RBOB stable on the day at Atlantic Coast falls in line with underlying futures contract
November RBOB minus 2.50 cents/gal.
California gasoline plunged Sept. 29 after the California Air
Alkylate down, raffinate on the rise Board issued a volatility waiver.
FOB 92/5 alkylate fell sharply on the day, down 17.25 cents to On Sept. 29, both Los Angeles and San Francisco CARBOB
November RBOB plus 60.00 cents/gal. Raffinate rose 17.75 cents differentials closed at NYMEX November RBOB futures plus 69
to November RBOB minus 55 cents/gal. cents/gal, down 81 cents and 65 cents on the day, respectively,
FOB 100/1 reformate was stable at November RBOB plus 111.25 amid selling interest.
cents/gal. The California Air Resources Board issued a gasoline volatility
— Wendy Dulaney waiver effective Sept. 28, moving forward the transition date from
summer-grade gasoline to cheaper winter-grade gasoline to curb
Platts European Gasoline Daily Market Analysis rising California gasoline prices.
In New York Harbor, CBOB barges, which fell 6.73 cents to
Crack spread sinks more than $3/b $2.4375/gal on Sept. 29, have fallen nearly 50 cents in the second
More arbitrage cargoes heard on subjects half of September.
The steep drop came mostly from declining gasoline futures
Northwest European gasoline markets plunged on the day due to the end of the summer driving season and a transition to
amid strong selling pressure Sept. 29. cheaper winter grades. Imports of gasoline to the East Coast also
There was an increase in fixtures heard on the day however, rose sharply to 666,000 b/d last week, according to data from
spurred on by several arbitrages and a discount on offer for the Energy Information Administration Sept. 27. US Customs data,
Russian cargoes, according to sources. Eight gasoline cargoes meanwhile, showed an even sharper rise in imports this week to
were heard on subjects out of Northwest Europe, with three about 700,000 b/d.
Despite the higher imports, refiner and blender net inputs of ample supply, traders said. This was reflected in the jet FOB
gasoline blending components fell to 2.415 million b/d, marking FARAG barge differential with slipped $5.75/mt in the week to
the lowest four-week average since March 3, when inputs Sept. 27 to a premium of $55.25/mt to the front-month ICE low
averaged 2.405 million b/d, EIA data showed. East Coast run rates sulfur gasoil futures contract.
dropped 18.2 percentage points to 71.8% for the week ended The return of refineries could provide higher volumes for
Sept. 22 as Delta’s Trainer refinery near Philadelphia started a stocks. For example, the resumption of a halted unit at Shell
turnaround mid-month. Energy and Chemicals Park Rotterdam, one of the largest
On the Gulf Coast, regular 11.5 RVP 87 unleaded physical producers of jet fuel in Europe, will likely push up stock levels in
gasoline barrels traded sharply lower compared with regular the region.
CBOB and RBOB. However, although the arbitrage incentive from Fujariah to the
Platts assessed 87 unleaded at NYMEX November RBOB Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub stood at 17 cents/b on Sept.
futures plus 16.50 cents/gal, 3.75 cents lower on the day. This 26, according to analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights,
narrowed the spread between regular CBOB and 87 unleaded to September showed an average disincentive of $2.08/b, which
17.9 cents/gal. could indicate fewer arrivals to come for the rest of the month
Meanwhile, premium 12.5 RVP CBOB, which moved at a stable and into October.
spread to regular, was assessed at November RBOB plus 40.10 “The market is long in my opinion,” one trader said. “But there
cents/gal. After the market close, it was discussed lower and is more clearing. Looking at the back end of the curve it is a bit
offered at futures plus 36.00 cents/gal. This move would bring less easy [to secure a cargo].”
the CBOB implied octane value to below 4.90 cents/gal, where it According to Kpler ship tracking data, volumes to arrive
has been observed for RBOB. into ARA are expected to fall 5% in October to 251,000 mt from
In Oklahoma, suboctane gasoline shifted to 11.5 RVP Sept. 29, predicted September values, with a much heavier import of
with buying interest adding support to the differential against Middle Eastern product, over West Indian or East Asian. This
NYMEX November RBOB futures. comes from building demand and lower production in these
Platts assessed the suboctane differential at futures regions. In particular, West Indian exports are unlikely to grow
plus 4.75 cents/gal after starting the day at futures plus 2.50 amid a number of refinery outages in the region.
cents/gal. In its latest Global Refining Outlook report released early
On an outright basis, however, the price fell 5.83 cents/gal as September, S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts said that
the NYMEX November RBOB futures settled 6.67 cents below the refinery outages in South Asia are “projected to rise by 290,000
previous day, at $2.3995/gal. b/d in September, reaching the highest level of outages for the
Chicago CBOB strengthened for all pipelines, with the year at 426,000 b/d before declining to 390,000b/d in October.”
Wolverine differential leading changes. — Patrick McAllister
Platts assessed Wolverine CBOB up 8 cents on the day at
futures minus 5 cents/gal, BCX CBOB 6.75 cents above last close Global airline capacity to rise in week starting
at futures minus 6.25 cents, and West Shore 8.75 cents higher at Sep 25 on Golden Week holidays: OAG
futures minus 7.25 cents/gal.
Indications after the market close showed West Shore CBOB European airline capacity down 330,000 seats on week
slightly stronger at futures minus 7 cents/gal. European jet fuel remains long but traders see some
Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights. shortening
— Staff
International seat capacity is likely to increase by 717,000 to
Jet 112.3 million seats in the week starting Sept. 25, largely driven by
the Golden Week holidays in China, aviation tracker OAG said in
ARA jet kero stocks rise 6% on week its latest report.
amid seasonal demand slide, ample supply China’s Golden Week holidays begin Sept. 29 and will last for
eight days.
Shell Energy and Chemicals Park Rotterdam resumes Without additional Chinese capacity, international airline
halted unit seats remain unchanged. European domestic seats are
Sept Fujairah to ARA arbitrage remains low at $2.08/mt: SPGCI expected to have fallen by 110,000 seats week on week.
European international seats are set to fall by 220,000 seats
Jet fuel and kerosene stocks rose 6% in the week to Sept. over the week, offsetting an increase of 189,000 seats from
28 to 758,000 mt, according to data from market research firm Northeast Asia.
Insights Global. The volume remains 3% below levels in the same European demand continues to fall away on the back of the
week last year. approach of winter at the beginning of November, one airline
The jet market is currently long with declining demand and sources said.
Total domestic capacity increased 1% week on week to 67.7 Singapore’s commercial stockpiles of middle distillates rose
million seats. Domestic seats are expected to fall back to 67 4.14% on the week to a six-month high of 9.37 million barrels
million for the rest of the summer season. over Sept. 21-27, Enterprise Singapore data released late Sept.
International markets saw a slight increase of 0.1% in seat 28 showed.
capacity to 44.6 million seats. Stockpiles were last higher over March 23-29 at 9.85 million
barrels, historical data from Enterprise Singapore showed.
European, Asian jet fuel demand Singapore was a net exporter of gasoil in the week to Sept. 27,
Asian jet fuel/kerosene participants had more of a mixed with outflows of 384,370 mt outpacing inflows of 163,212 mt, the
view of the market as September drew to a close, with previously data showed.
bullish sentiment that arose following news that no further clean In contrast, the city-state flipped to being a net importer of
oil products would be expected from China for the rest of the jet fuel/kerosene over the same period with inflows of 30,909 mt,
year giving way to a more cautious outlook Sept. 29. mainly from China, outpacing outflows of 27,906 mt.
A few traders said that so far, with the market having had time China was also the top supplier of gasoil to Singapore over
to digest news of the evolving regional supply situation, there Sept. 21-27, with volumes almost doubling on the week to 80,300
appeared to have been little immediate impact on the Asian jet mt, followed by Tunisia and Thailand at 42,108 mt and 25,449 mt,
fuel/kerosene market. respectively.
“So far, I don’t see any big impact on China news on the jet The rise in imports from China comes amid the release of
[fuel] market,” a regional trader said Sept. 29, adding that there the country’s third batch of export quotas in early September.
could be further clarity “after [the] holidays”. However, the Chinese government will not issue new quotas for
In Europe, with declining aviation demand, jet fuel differentials clean oil product exports and additional allowances for crude
have reflected a similar weakening in the complex. Platts, part of oil imports this year, three Beijing-based trading officials with
S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the jet CIF NWE cargo knowledge of the matter said late Sept. 27.
cash differential down $8.50/mt week on week at a premium According to the sources, a governor with the country’s top
of $55.25/mt above the October ICE low sulfur gasoil futures planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, had
contract. said this during a meeting with state-run companies Sept. 27,
Traders reported that the market looked long on the back which will cap China’s oil product exports and crude inflows at
of strong flows from the East of Suez in August and solid least in the coming months.
refining margins at European refineries. Platts assessed the With no additional quotas allocated, China’s average clean oil
Jet FOB Rotterdam versus Brent crack at $34.99/b Sept. 28, product exports will be in a downtrend as only about 11.81 million mt
strengthening $2.68/b on the day. (770,000 b/d) of clean oil product export quotas will be available for
However, one source said the market could tighten. September through the rest of the year, given that the government
“The market is long in my opinion,” the source said. “But there awarded 37.99 million mt (870,000 b/d) of quotas for 2023.
is more clearing. Looking at the back end of the curve it is a bit “The market has priced in expectations of a fourth batch of
less easy [to secure a cargo].” export quota of around 5 million mt [for clean products]. With no
According to Kpler ship tracking data, volumes to arrive further export quota, the [middle distillates] market will definitely
into the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region in October are be tighter in Q4,” a middle distillate trader said.
expected to fall 5% month on month to 251,000 mt, with a much Meanwhile, Australia absorbed the bulk of Singapore’s middle
heavier imports of Middle Eastern product than those from the distillate exports, receiving 79,163 mt of gasoil and 27,846 mt of
West Coast India or East Asia. This comes from building demand jet fuel/kerosene over the week to Sept. 27, the data showed.
and lower production in these regions. In particular, West Coast Singapore also sent 44,978 mt of gasoil to New Zealand,
of India exports are unlikely to grow amid a number of refinery followed by South Africa and Netherlands at 41,869 mt and
outages in the region. 40,366 mt, respectively, while jet fuel/kerosene outflows went to
— Patrick McAllister, Clarice Chiam Papua New Guinea at 34 mt, followed by Malaysia at 20 mt.
Platts assessed the front-month time spread for FOB
Diesel Singapore 10 ppm sulfur gasoil derivatives — an indication of
near-term sentiment — at an average of $4.03/b over Sept. 21-27,
SINGAPORE DATA: Middle distillate stocks rise 4% widening from an average of plus $3.92/b the week before, S&P
on week to six-month high of 9.37 mil barrels Global Commodity Insights data showed.
The front-month time spread for Platts FOB Singapore jet
China takes top supplier spot for middle distillates over fuel/kerosene swaps averaged $2.68/b over the same period,
Sept. 21-27 narrowing from an average of plus $3.07/b the previous week.
Singapore flips to net importer of jet fuel/kerosene — Amy Tan, Clarice Chiam, Ernest Puey
Biodiesel in Brazil’s Mato Grosso at 16% discount Cuiaba cost would be at Real 4,731.90/cu m, a Real 511.90/cu m
to Platts ULSD IPP Santos equivalent premium to biodiesel in the region. Platts ULSD DAP South Brazil
was assessed at its highest level on Sept. 27 at Real 4384,91/
Biofuel at economic advantage over fossil in MT cu m since the assessment was launched on Sept. 1.https://
Lack of Russian diesel imports to increase diesel price www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/our-methodology/
subscriber-notes/090123-platts-launches-new-assessment-for-
In the last few years, an increase in biodiesel blending rates ulsd-dap-south-brazil-from-all-origins-including-russia
has been postponed due to a possible negative impact in the Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
national inflation rate, however the most recent biodiesel vs The price spread between biodiesel and diesel delivered
diesel price spread, suggests that biodiesel could offer an in Mato Grosso could be slightly different if one considers the
economic advantage over fossil-fuel derived diesel, according to Petrobras ex-refinery price, REPLAM, based in Paulinia which was
S&P Global Commodity Insights. last published Sept. 28 at Real 3,853.2/cu m or equivalent to Real
A wider discount of biodiesel to diesel mainly in Mato Grosso, 4,243.2/cu m delivered in Mato Grosso.
one of the largest biodiesel producing regions, could financially Brazil is net short diesel supply, equivalent to nearly 25%
encourage higher voluntary blending rates, while the federal of internal demand, which increases the country’s exposure to
mandate is still at 12%. international diesel prices.
The Platts biodiesel DAP Paulinia spot assessment, on Sept. The recently announced restrictions on Russian exports
28 was at Real 4,475/cu m ($888.51/cu m), based on a trade heard in distillates will result in a shortage of around 1 million b/d of
for 120 cu m out of Santa Catarina, a region with a freight of Real diesel, according to an S&P Global Commodity Insights analysis.
180/cu m to Paulinia. However, there was an offer of Real 4,610/cu Shipping data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea shows
m from Mato Grosso, to DAP Paulínia. With a freight of Real 390/ Brazilian imports of Russian ULSD have totaled about 21 million
cu m to Paulinia, it suggested a net back cost to biodiesel ex-mill barrels from January to September 2023, compared with about
Mato Grosso at Real 4,220/cu m. 444,000 barrels for all of 2022, showing the importance of
On the same day Platts assessed the ULSD S10 Santos Import diesel imports into Brazil. The Russian diesel export ban was
Parity Price at Real 4,504.07/cu m, which according to market expected to hit Turkey and Brazil the hardest but Brazil’s diesel
sources could be normalized delivered to Cuiabá, the main fuel market faces uncertainty amid Russian oil products ban. As a
hub in Mato Grosso state, at Real 4,894.07/cu m. result, fewer offers could result in higher diesel prices in the
Considering the above price references, the biodiesel in Mato coming days.
Grosso would be at 16% or Real 674.07/cu m discount to the In that scenario, the most competitive biodiesel price in Mato
fossil option at the same location. By comparison, on the same Grosso versus diesel, is expected to trigger further discussions
day a year ago, biodiesel was at 7% discount to diesel IPP Santos for fuel distributors to increase the biodiesel blend volume into
delivered in Cuiabá. diesel on a voluntary decision basis to 15%, compared to a lower
It is also important to highlight that for the purpose of that national mandate of 12%.
pricing analysis, S&P Global used a biodiesel spot price, which Brazil’s biodiesel trading model dictates that producers and
has a historical premium over term contracts. From Sept. 1 to distributors need to submit term contracts to supply the next
Sept. 28, S&P Global calculated an average premium of Real 368/ two-month period, therefore any temporary higher biodiesel
cu m for spot over term contracts, therefore fuel distributors demand is expected to be translated in a larger spot demand
with biodiesel term contracts would have an additional financial within the fifth bimester.
reason to consider higher biodiesel blending rates. If that trend remains in place, a larger demand for volumes
under term contracts could also be expected for the last two
months of 2024.
— Priscila Pinheiro, Nicolle Monteiro de Castro
Marine Fuel
BUNKERWORLD INDEX: Crude uptick offsets
paused bunker demand, higher supply
Singapore VLSFO supply stable to higher in October
Weak NWE demand weighs against firming oil complex
Grain exports to raise Vancouver demand in October
SINGAPORE DATA: Fuel oil inventories days ahead for VLSFO bunker for the Sept. 28 session, up from as
drop to 3-week low as imports shrink close as 2 days ahead in prior weeks, though for most, lead times
for both grades were around six days ahead.
Onshore heavy distillate inventories slip 9.5% on week Meanwhile, Singapore bunker demand has remained muted
Singapore’s heavy distillate imports drop nearly 17% on week as the region continues to grapple with challenging global
macroeconomic conditions. Enterprise Singapore data Sept. 18
Singapore’s commercial stockpiles of heavy distillates dropped showed that Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports shrank for
9.5% week on week to 19.8 million barrels in the week ended the 11th straight month in August, down 20.1% year on year. On a
Sept. 27, showed Enterprise Singapore data released late Sept. month-on-month basis, NODX was down 3.8%.
28, amid lower fuel oil imports. Platts-assessed premiums for Singapore-delivered marine fuel
The stocks were currently at their lowest since Sept. 6 when 0.5% bunker averaged $16.89/mt over benchmark FOB Singapore
they were at 19.5 million barrels. This week’s inventories were marine fuel 0.5% cargo values over the week to Sept. 27, up from
11.5% lower compared with the corresponding week in 2022, the an average of $13.66/mt in the prior week.
data showed. For the high sulfur bunker grade, Platts-assessed premiums
Weekly residual fuel inventories in Singapore have averaged at averaged $12.99/mt over benchmark FOB Singapore 380 CST
about 20.7 million barrels so far in 2023, compared with a weekly HSFO cargo values, down from an average of $13.93/mt in the
average of 20.9 million barrels in 2022, according to Enterprise prior week.
Singapore data. — Koustav Samanta, Yong ren Toh
Singapore’s fuel oil imports dropped 16.6% on the week to
1.007 million mt in the week to Sept. 27, with inflows from Asian Feedstocks
suppliers making up about 33% of the total volume at 332,859
mt in the week to Sept. 27. The Asian supplies plunged about 37% EPCA 2023: European petchem sentiment
from the preceding week, the data showed. bearish despite demand uptick
The city-state’s imports from Malaysia more than halved
to 139,847 mt in the week to Sept. 27 from 294,332 mt in the Overall activity in the European petrochemical industry has
previous week, while Singapore imported about 39,970 mt fuel oil increased in September as companies proceed with re-stocking
from Taiwan in the latest week, down from 51,303 mt in the week activities, but general sentiment over the next few months and
ended Sept. 20, the data showed. the long-term remains bearish in the region, sources at the
Singapore’s imports from the Middle East slumped 84.2% on 57th European Petrochemical Association annual meeting in
the week to 64,095 mt in the week ended Sept. 27, all of which Vienna said.
came from Saudi Arabia, according to the data. Sources pointed to a better-than-expected performance of
There were no fuel oil imports from Kuwait or the United Arab the automotive industry in Europe offering partial support to
Emirates in the week ended Sept. 27, but Singapore imported petrochemical cracking activity, which had been depressed prior
111,085 mt from Turkey in the latest week for the first time since to September amid negative margins. Apart from that, other
early August, the data showed. sectors such as construction continue to underperform, sources
Imports from Russia, however, surged to 83,616 mt in the week said at the event.
to Sept. 27, up from 19,821 mt in the previous week, while imports And in the short term, a combination of a weaker economic
from Brazil stood at 54,852 mt compared to 165,919 mt in the headwinds and rising feedstocks prices, amid escalating worries
previous week, the data showed. of naphtha prices climbing alongside those of the broader crude
Meanwhile, Singapore exported 172,992 mt of fuel oil in the complex, continues to weigh on sentiment for the next two
week to Sept. 27, about 13.2% lower compared with 199,375 mt in quarters, sources said.
the week to Sept. 20, the Enterprise Singapore data showed. Platts Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo has been on an upward trend
Singapore exported 45,138 mt fuel oil to Bangladesh, and in the past few months and climbed above the $700/mt threshold
31,070 mt to the UAE in the week ended Sept. 27, compared on Sept. 12, the first time since April 13.
with none sent to these destinations in the preceding week, the In the interim, Platts NWE Cracker Margin spot has been in
data showed. negative territory since June 27, hitting minus $321.84/mt on
Singapore’s inventory data counts only stocks at onshore Aug. 9, the lowest point so far this year, albeit having partially
terminals. Enterprise Singapore describes heavy distillates as recovered since then to minus $125.29/mt as of Sept. 28.
“residues,” which include cracked and straight run fuel oil and low Crackers in Europe were running on average at around 67%
sulfur waxy residue. prior to September, sources said, close to the minimum operating
The fall in fuel oil stocks has resulted in slightly tighter levels necessary to keep plants open. Rates have climbed to
supplies being reported for bunker in Singapore, though 70% or slightly above in recent weeks with the recent increase in
inventories of VLSFO and HSFO bunker remained adequate to activity.
meet inquiries. Some suppliers were reporting lead times of four Coaster crackers with feedstock flexibility are finding
themselves in a slightly more favorable situation, as they can The spread between European gasoline and naphtha values
opt for cheaper options such as LPG, but older plants that run narrowed Sept. 29 amid a price correction on the former.
exclusively on naphtha are facing negative margins and the The gas-nap spread fell $29.75/mt to $147.75/mt on the day,
industry might see some rationalization of production, especially according to Platts data, the lowest value since mid-March,
with the feedstock price rising alongside the broader crude oil amid a selloff and heightened volatility in the gasoline market,
complex, sources said. sources said.
“There has been a lot of anticipation over the past months In the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub, naphtha stocks
[over closure of older plants], and Brindisi seemed to have pulled continued to fall due to an uptick in demand, with sources
the trigger,” a strategy manager said. “The next six months will be noting improved petrochemical activity in the region amid a
crucial to understand what will happen.” backwardated price structure.
LyondellBasell recently announced plans to permanently close Storage levels fell for the fifth consecutive week, down 7.1%
one of its two polypropylene plants at Brindisi, southern Italy, between Sept. 21-28 to 170,000 mt, the lowest level registered in
due to “increasingly challenging” market conditions and a poor 2023, according to Insights Global data.
outlook. The front-month European crack rose 10 cents/b at on the day
The company produces 495,000 mt/year of PP resins at at minus $14.75/b, Platts data showed.
Brindisi using its patented Spheripol and Spherizone process The front-month CIF NWE naphtha swap fell $10.50/mt
technologies, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data. at $692/mt. The October/November spread rose 25 cents/
Homopolymer resins produced through the Spheripol mt to $2.25/mt with November/December up 50 cents/mt at
process are used primarily for packaging applications, while $4.25/mt.
LyondellBasell’s Spherizone line produces higher value specialty In blending, the front-month CIF NWE naphtha swap
PP for applications in piping, construction materials, automotive discount to the equivalent gasoline swaps fell $29.75/mt at
and household products, the company said. The company has not $147.75/mt.
provided a schedule for the intended closure. In petrochemical feedstocks, the front-month CIF NWE
“After thorough analysis, we believe that closure of this unit propane swap discount to the equivalent naphtha swap was up
is the most sustainable solution from a strategic and financial $3.50/mt at $137/mt.
standpoint,” Jim Guilfoyle, senior vice president/EAMEI for olefins The front-month East-West spread — the spread between the
and polyolefins at LyondellBasell, said Sept. 6. “This unit is the CFR Japan naphtha cargo swap and the CIF NWE equivalent —
oldest of its kind in the world, and it has become uncompetitive.” rose $1.50/mt $6/mt, while the November spread was up $1.50/
Indeed, strong competition from Asia, with newly built plants mt at $6.25/mt.
in China adding to global supply capacity, and troubled plants Bio-naphtha was steady on the day at a $1,380/mt premium to
projects in Europe, are causes for concern over the long term for the naphtha CIF NWE cargoes.
Europe, sources said. Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights
“Europe needs to decide what role it wants to play in this — Vinicius eduardo Maffei
industry […] but if not even Ineos is managing to build a new
plant, then I fear for the future,” a polymers procurement VGO exports from Europe rise 2% on week
manager said. to 1,750,448 mt: Kpler
Ineos Group Ltd announced during the EPCA conference that
is seeking a new environmental permit for its Eur4 billion ethane Russian loadings at 2023 high
cracker project in the port of Antwerp, Belgium, after a regional Secondary unit margins fall
court earlier this year annulled the plant’s permit, forcing the
company to suspend construction work. Vacuum gasoil loadings from European countries rose by
Ineos had planned to appeal the court’s verdict, but this would 35,009 mt, or 2%, to 1,750,488 mt , for the period Sept. 22-28 a
take about a year, John McNally, CEO of Ineos Project One, said at new 2023 high, according to shipping data from Kpler, amid falling
EPCA on Sept. 27. refinery secondary unit margins.
McNally said that rather than wait, Ineos had decided to take A source tracking refineries and VGO markets said the
a different route. “An appeal will take a year, so we’re trying to get fall in cracks seen in high value-added products, as well as
a new permit,” he said. the approaching refinery maintenance season, reduced the
— Vinicius eduardo Maffei incentive at refineries to use their secondary units and has kept
loadings high.
Platts European Naphtha Daily Market Analysis European loadings fell by 127,042 mt, or 14.9%, to 725,297 mt.
Russian loadings rose to more than 1,025,151 mt, also the
Gasoline-naphtha spread falls highest weekly level of 2023.
Naphtha storage levels lower — Rich Laverick-brown
Gas Liquids This was based on FEI/CP November trade at done $80/mt,
JAPAN DATA: August LPG stocks rise 8.6% on month CP December propane swap done at $615/mt and FEI October
as demand contracts propane swap trade at $687/mt.
The November/December CP propane swap contango
LPG stocks increase for six-straight months in Aug narrowed 50 cents/mt on the day to $8/mt.
Imports of LPG down 10.23% on month, pushed by butane drop VLGC rates on the key Persian Gulf-to-Japan route fell further
Sept. 29, down %9.5/mt on the day to $159/mt, on thin activity
Japan’s LPG stocks rose for six consecutive months in August, even as the most prompt vessel was fixed for mid-October, ship
up 8.61% on the month and 9.54% on the year to 1.917 million mt, brokers said. Ship owners are indicating lower offers as the
as the country heads for winter with ample supply, even as demand tonnage list grows, they added.
and imports declined, LP Gas Association data showed Sept. 29. Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Stocks of propane rose 1.27% on the month to 1.314 million — Ramthan Hussain
mt in August, while butane climbed 3.25% to 603,000 mt, the
data showed. Tankers
Japan’s total LPG demand retreated 3.57% on the month
to 811,000 mt in August, after briefly rebounding 6.73% on the Platts Americas Dirty Tanker Daily Commentary
month to 841,000 mt in July, according to the data.
Propane demand fell 4.48% on the month to 618,000 mt in Aframax fixing frenzy leaves rates higher to end week
August, while butane consumption dipped 0.52% to 193,000 mt, VLCC rate widely unchanged as interest calms
the data showed.
Overall LPG usage as petrochemical feedstock declined Fixing patterns in the Americas dirty tanker market reversed
almost 38% on the month to 36,000 mt in August, with propane course Sept. 29 as VLCC and Suezmax inquiry slowed to a halt
usage holding steady at 6,000 mt and butane down 13.3% at while Aframax interest picked up.
30,000 mt, the data showed. After a week of limited inquiry and steady freight rates, a flurry
Total LPG imports shrank by 10.23% on the month to 816,000 of fixtures were done for trans-Atlantic voyages out of the US Gulf
mt, with inflows of propane down 9.53% on the month to 674,000 Coast on Aframaxes. The ramp up in activity gave a slight boost in
mt and butane slid 13.41% to 142,000 mt, the data showed. rates, leaving sentiment bullish heading into the weekend.
Japan’s total import terminal running stocks jumped 30.15% Vitol booked two ships, the Seafaith and the Stamos, both
month on month and 26.53% year on year to 682,000 mt in at w95 for Oct. 8-9 loading USGC-UK Continent/Mediterranean
August, according to the data, with propane up 33.7% on the runs after Hess placed the Elli on subjects at the same rate for
month at 480,000 mt and butane 22.42% higher to 202,000 mt. loading Oct. 9.
Government-mandated stocks, comprising a large portion of ATMI and Vitol both held outstanding cargoes for loading Oct.
privately held LPG stocks, shed 0.7% on the month to 1.122 million 9-10 and Oct. 10-11, respectively, by the end of the Platts Market
mt in August, the data showed. on Close assessment process Sept. 29.
The November/December Saudi CP propane swap was Platts assessed freight for the benchmark 70,000 mt USGC-
pegged in a contango of $8/mt Sept. 29, steady on the day, which UKC run at w95, up w5 day on day. Freight for the route had
technically offers Japanese buyers an opportunity to buy more held at w90 for the past eight consecutive trading sessions as a
in case of harsh winter. But given prevailing high flat prices, and limited number of ballasters balanced a lack of fixtures.
persistently healthy stockpile, Japanese appetite for imports Upcoast freight was mixed however, with the 70,000 mt
would remain low. East Coast Mexico-USGC run clocking in at a steady w80 after
“Inventory is already high. There is not much room to build up,” Houston Refining repeated the w80 mark on a replacement deal
a Japanese trader said. loading Oct. 3 on the Maritime Glory.
— Ramthan Hussain Caribbean-USGC freight shifted to parity with ECMex loads,
gaining w2.5 on the day.
Platts Middle Eastern LPG Daily Commentary In the forward freight agreement market, the curve for the
70,000 mt USGC-UKC route ticked higher amid spot strength
November/December CP propane swap contango narrows with the October contract jumping w3 to w120 by the end of the
to $8/mt trading day.
VLGC rates slide to below $160/mt as tonnage list lengthens
Big ship fixing lulls
Platts assessed the November propane CP swap — which will Freight for both VLCCs and Suezmaxes were mostly
take over as month one contract Oct. 1 — at $604/mt on Sept. rangebound Sept.29 as a lack of fresh fixing activity left market
29, up $4/mt on the day, and $4/mt above the October term participants ideas unchanged for achievable freight.
propane CP. The only move was seen on the 260,000 mt Brazil-China route
that dropped w0.5 over the day, seeing pressure from the closely- News
connected West Africa-China run.
Platts assessed the benchmark 270,000 mt USGC-China run Crude oil futures prices dip over US,
at $8 million, unchanged from Sept. 28. Chinese economic data
In the Suezmax segment, talk of a deal done on a Guyana-
Transatlantic voyage at w60 emerged, however they could not be US consumer spending inches up 0.4%: Commerce
confirmed by the end of the Platts Market on Close assessment Department
process Sept. 29. China’s manufacturing and services PMI to grow in September
Platts assessed freight for the 145,000 mt USGC-UKC Russian export ban boosts distillate prices
run at w50.
Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights. Crude oil futures settled lower Sept. 29 on profit-taking at
— Catherine Kellogg the end of the month and weaker-than-expected US consumer
spending data, while middle distillates remained strong,
Platts Americas Clean Tanker Daily Commentary supported by an increasingly tight global supply environment.
NYMEX front-month crude was down 92 cents to settle at
MR USGC-ECMex freight rates fall below $600,000 $90.79/b, while ICE front-month Brent was up 7 cents to settle at
Under-the-radar fixing activity lightens tonnage avails $95.31/b.
NYMEX front-month RBOB was down 6.54 cents settling at
Americas Medium Range clean tanker markets tested what $2.4399/b and NYMEX front-month ULSD was up 4.42 cents to
is perceived to be a new floor in rates Sep. 29 amid busy fixing settle at $3.3622/gal.
activity, although most deals were negotiated under the radar. “Oil markets could be experiencing a case of month-end
“If only we knew what was going on, the volatility wouldn’t profit-taking, but the weak US consumer spending likely forced
be so high,” a shipowner said, referring to the recent quick- hands a bit,” Stephen Innes, Managing Partner at SPI Asset
succession peaks in the market. “This week is a prime example.” Management said Sept. 29 ahead of the data’s release.
Freight on the Americas Medium Range benchmark routes Consumer spending in the US did slow down in August,
started the week peaking at w260 for the US Gulf Coast-Brazil inching up a modest 0.4%, according to the US Department
run, at $3.125 million from the USGC to Chile and at $1.125 million of Commerce. When adjusted for inflation, spending edged
for the USGC-Caribbean trip. By the end of the week, heavily up just 0.1% and was likely supported by August’s surge in
stacked position lists filled with tonnage returning from the gasoline prices.
Americas short-haul trips forced USGC-loading rates down w55 “However, given the evidence of the supply tightness that
to Brazil, lump sum $500,000 to Chile and lump sum 380,000 was highlighted on Wednesday by the Energy Information
to the Caribbean to land at w205, $2.6 million and $745,000, Administration reporting crude stock levels at the WTI delivery
respectively Sep. 29. point at the Cushing tank farm breached minimum operating
On the 38,000 mt USGC-West Coast South America runs, levels, it’s doubtful traders will veer too far off the buy the dip
P66 placed the STI Soho, with Scorpio Tankers reserving the path,” Innes said.
option to nominate the STI Millenia instead, on subjects to load Despite gasoline prices keeping overall costs up, the easing
Oct. 5-6 and discharge in Chile at $2.6 million. Valero booked inflation data suggested that the US Federal Reserve may
the Pratincole Pacific to carry a combination cargo of B5, jet maintain a pause in interest rate hikes in November.
and unleaded gasoline to Peru at $2.275 million, with an Oct. While the US economy still showed some resilience, analysts
3-4 laycan. also looked to China for bullish signs amid the country’s uneven
On the USGC-Caribbean run, Chevron replaced the Pacific economic recovery. Innes noted that travel demand through China’s
Quartz with the Dee4 Juniper at $800,000 and demurrage Golden Week holiday would help lift the country’s consumption.
at $35,000/d. Toward the end of the Platts Market on Close Critically, the forthcoming holiday season will be an important
assessment process, PMI was heard to have booked the gauge of consumer sentiment and the momentum of recovery
Seaclipper on the USGC-East Coast Mexico run at $545,000. from China’s property market following several easing measures
After the MOC close Valero was heard to have successfully in the recent week, analysts said Sept. 29.
pushed rates on the run down to $475,000. Analysts from ANZ Research and ING expect China’s
Busy under-the-radar fixing activity considerably lightened September manufacturing PMI to come in between 50.1-50.2,
position lists, taking all prompt avails out of the market and up from August’s figure of 49.7. The service’s PMI is forecast
trimming tonnage count in the natural fixing window to less than to increase on the month to between 51.3-51.8, according to
30 tankers. analysts estimates, up from 51.0 in the previous month.
Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights. A reading above 50 indicates growth, while a reading below
— Barbara Troner the mark reflects a contraction.
Separately, the middle distillate complex continued to show about the FZA-M-59 block off the coast of Amapa state. “These
strength amid a weakening complex, as global supplies were are geologic and geophysical studies.”
tight, especially following an export ban on Russian supplies. Petrobras didn’t immediately respond to a request to confirm
Russia cautioned Sept. 28 that its snap ban on most diesel the minster’s statement.
and gasoline exports could last longer than many had expected. Silveira’s comments represented the latest salvo in an ongoing
TASS news agency quoted Russia’s Energy Minister Nikolai battle of words between Petrobras, key members of President
Shulginov saying that “expectations of a quick lifting of the ban Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s administration and local environment
on fuel exports are futile.” regulators over drilling permits in the highly prospective area near
“Russia dampened expectations yesterday that the export ban the mouth of the Amazon River. The Brazilian Institute for the
might be lifted completely in the near future,” Carsten Fritsch, Environment and Natural Resources, or IBAMA, denied Petrobras’
commodity analyst at Commerzbank, said in a Sept. 29 note. “The request to drill an exploration well in the FZA-M-59 block in May.
crack spread increased noticeably again yesterday in response.” Petrobras is currently awaiting a decision from IBAMA on its
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the appeal of the permit denial.
ICE LSGO October contract up $23.25 on the day at $995.50/mt The FZA-M-59 block sits on Brazil’s maritime border with
on Sept. 28 as a result, with the contract remaining within that French Guiana and is believed to be located on top of the same
range in Sept. 29 mid-morning European trading at $991/mt at geologic trend that produced a series of major oil discoveries off
1116 GMT. the coasts of neighboring Guyana and Suriname. A consortium
European inflation data and economic indicators released led by ExxonMobil, for example, has discovered more than
Sept. 28 and Sept. 29 suggested that “the trend of lower inflation 15 billion barrels of crude in the Stabroek block off the coast
for the euro area as a whole appears to be continuing, and of Guyana.
core inflation also appears to be moving downwards,” Amanda The discoveries generated intense interest in similar acreage
Sundstrom, fixed income and FX strategist at SEB, said in a note off the coast of Brazil, where the last exploration well was drilled
Sept. 29. in 2015.
Germany’s consumer price index showed a 4.5% year-on- Drilling and other exploration activity in the region, however,
year change, coming in below a forecast of 4.6% and a previous has been curtailed for years by the 2016 discovery of the Great
change of 6.1%. In addition, inflation figures for the aggregate Amazon Reef System in the turbid waters at the mouth of the
eurozone released Sept. 29 showed a 4.3% year-on-year change Amazon River. Environment and indigenous groups have urged
in the CPI, lower than a forecast change of 4.5% and down from a the Lula administration to prohibit drilling the region in order to
previous change of 5.2%. protect the reef and indigenous lands.
The better-than-expected reading could be a potential signal The Lula administration is sensitive to the requests, especially
to investors that the European Central Bank will not further after rebuilding foreign support for efforts to preserve the
tighten interest rates, although onlookers cautioned that it will Amazon. The government has dramatically reduced deforestation,
be difficult to separate a genuine reduction in pull inflation from which skyrocketed under former president Jair Bolsonaro. The
seasonality effects. Lula administration’s policies have focused on leveraging Brazil’s
“Further details are needed, and perhaps also more readings renewable sources of energy to become a key player in the global
before one can judge the current trend,” SEB economists Marcus energy transition, presenting programs such as the “Fuel of the
Widen and Pia Fromlet said in a note Sept. 29. “But all in all, we Future” project to the UN General Assembly in mid-September.
see today’s inflation report to be better than one might have But Brazil’s equatorial margin is widely considered the
hoped for in Frankfurt.” country’s last exploration frontier, which is especially important
— Binish Azhar, Ernest Puey, Natasha Tan to Petrobras and the government given that the country’s subsalt
region is expected to reach peak output in 2030 before entering a
Brazil equatorial margin block could hold period of decline.
5.6 billion barrels of oil: energy minister “We can’t yet give up, unfortunately, sources of energy such as
oil and natural gas,” Silveira noted.
Block in Foz do Amazonas Basin Silveira has called on Brazil’s Attorney General’s Office to host
Petrobras holds 100% stake a mediation session involving the Mines and Energy Ministry,
the Environment Ministry, Petrobras and IBAMA in an effort
IBAMA denied drill permit in May
to break the deadlock. Environment Minister Marina Silva and
Brazilian state-led Petrobras estimates an offshore IBAMA President Rodrigo Agostinho, however, have indicated
exploration and production block in the Foz do Amazonas Basin that the permit denial was a technical decision and not open to
could hold 5.6 billion barrels of oil, Energy Minister Alexandre negotiation.
Silveira said Sept. 29. Petrobras is currently focused on winning permits to drill
“There are internal studies by Petrobras showing that specific in the offshore Potiguar Basin in the western portion of the
block could have more than 5.6 billion barrels of oil,” Silveira said equatorial margin, according to government officials. Three
Petrobras wells in the basin were included in the government’s development Denys Kudin told S&P Global Commodity Insights.
$350 billion accelerated growth program, with a decision on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated problems linked
permits for the BM-POT-17, POT-M-762 and POT-M-952 blocks to a decline in output of oil and oil products that began in the
expected in October, according to Silveira. mid-2000s.
Under Petrobras’ 2023-2027 strategic investment plan, the Since the conflict started in February 2022, attacks have
company planned to invest $2.0 billion to drill 16 wells across the hit key energy infrastructure, and forced the country to seek
16 concession blocks it holds in the Barreirinhas, Ceara, Foz do alternative fuel suppliers, exposing the risks of insufficient
Amazonas, Para-Maranhao and Potiguar basins. Petrobras holds domestic production to the industry and broader economy.
100% stakes in the blocks. As part of a government strategy, state-backed Ukrnafta
— Jeff Fick is now aiming to double hydrocarbons production to around
100,000 b/d of oil equivalent by the end of 2027. Of the current
US government shutdown would significantly 50,000 boe/d output, around 30,000 boe/d is oil, and 20,000
curtail CFTC activities boe/d natural and petroleum gas.
“Ukrnafta’s production has been declining since 2006 when
COT, swaps reports would cease we had a last peak of 121,000 b/d. Our ultimate goal is to reverse
Derivatives markets oversight would continue the trend,” Kudin said.
Ukraine has extensive hydrocarbons reserves and resources,
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission said the vast estimating them at more than 2 billion mt of oil, and more than 2
majority of the agency’s operations would cease if there is a lapse Tcm of gas.
in funding because lawmakers fail to agree on appropriations. Accounting for around 60% of Ukrainian oil output, Ukrnafta
However, oversight of derivatives markets would continue, plans to increase production in 2023 by around 5% year on year
including policing the markets for fraud and manipulation. to 28,921 b/d. It is targeting a 3% increase in gas production.
Some 50 out of 718 employees would be considered excepted
or exempt from furloughs, and CFTC commissioners would be New production
exempted, according to the agency’s contingency plan. Some Ukrnafta is targeting oil production growth at 21 mature fields
CFTC reports, such as the Commitment of Traders Report and the — 10 fields in the Carpathian basin in the West, and 11 in the
weekly swaps report, would not be produced, the plan said. Dniprodonetsk basin in North Eastern Ukraine.
The COT reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open “There are drilled wells there, and on the ground
interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions infrastructure, and they’re fully ready for production increases,”
equal to or above the reporting levels established by the CFTC. Kudin said.
The swaps report is published on Mondays. The company is in talks with foreign investors to join PSAs
In a Sept. 28 memo laying out plans if there is a lapse in to develop the projects, which include a discounted royalty tax
appropriations, CFTC said it would “... perform work that will of around 2% for oil, and 1.25% for natural gas. This compares
enable the commodities, futures and swaps markets to continue to normal rates of 31% for oil, and 29% for natural gas, Kudin
to operate and that will enable trading on those markets to said. In return, partners will be required to sign up for significant
continue.” However, if there is a lapse in funding CFTC would “... investments in a limited timeframe, and commit to increased
cease the vast bulk of its operations, including but not limited volumes of drilling and 3D seismic in project development plans.
to most functions of the Divisions of Enforcement, Market The company estimates that a five-year development plan for
Oversight, Clearing and Risk and Swap Dealers and Intermediary the projects will cost between $1.5 billion-$2 billion, of which half
Oversight. Reports and work related to rulemakings and other will be covered by Ukrnafta and the remainder by foreign private
responsibilities mandated by Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and investors.
Consumer Protection Act will also cease.” Kudin said that 27 exploration and production companies from
— Joe Fisher the EU, the UK, the US and Canada are currently studying field
data with a view to joining projects.
INTERVIEW: Ukrnafta to boost hydrocarbons output “Definitely the North-East oil fields have higher potential,”
as Ukraine targets energy independence Kudin said, adding that around half of the companies that have
expressed an interest are only looking at fields in the West, and
Plans to double hydrocarbons output by end-2027 the other half are considering the West and the North East.
Aiming to grow oil production at mature fields The North Eastern assets are closer to the conflict zone,
however, carrying greater security risks.
Long-term contracts boosting oil products import security
of Aug. 14 last year, KNOC data showed. The drop was mainly attributable to the shortage of tankers in
In addition, factory runs and high-tech manufacturing plant the Black Sea and the surge in shipping insurance costs after a
operation rates may continue to dwindle amid tepid goods and sea drone attack on Russian Navy ships in the area during early
services exports to China, painting a bleak outlook for industrial August, which led to a suspension at the port of Novorossiisk.
and logistics fuel demand, refinery sources and financial market CPC Blend crude first gets delivered from production facilities
analysts added. to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiisk via the Tengiz-Black
The S&P Global South Korea Manufacturing PMI eased to Sea pipeline that stretches over 1,500 km. The barrels then sail
48.9 in August from July’s 49.4 and remained below the no- through numerous maritime routes including the Black Sea, the
change mark of 50.0, signaling a deterioration in overall business Mediterranean, the Suez Canal, the Red Sea, the Indian Ocean
conditions and extending the current downturn to 14 months. and the South China Sea before reaching South Korean ports.
South Korean refiners continued to shun Russian crude oil, as
Less Saudi, US, Kazakh crude the country received no cargoes from the producer for the ninth
A bleak domestic oil demand outlook may put pressure on consecutive month in August, KNOC data showed.
refinery throughput for the rest of the year, prompting trading
teams to nominate to lift just the very minimum monthly South Korea’s top 10 crude suppliers (Unit: ‘000 barrels)
contractual term crude supply from major Middle Eastern Supplier Aug-23 Aug-22 Change (y/y) Jul-23 Change (m/m)
Saudi Arabia 27,732 38,950 -28.8% 28,790 -3.7%
suppliers, according to feedstock managers at major South Kuwait 10,551 8,786 20.1% 10,046 5.0%
Korean refiners. UAE 9,533 9,194 3.7% 5,790 64.6%
US 8,276 10,789 -23.3% 12,400 -33.3%
South Korea received 27.73 million barrels from its top supplier Qatar 7,098 7,103 -0.1% 6,143 15.5%
Saudi Arabia in August, down 28.8% from a year earlier and Iraq 6,896 7,124 -3.2% 6,860 0.5%
Kazakhstan 2,072 4,111 -49.6% 4,212 -50.8%
marking the second consecutive month of a year-on-year decline, Australia 1,130 3,313 -65.9% 691 63.5%
KNOC data showed. Brazil 965 993 -2.8% 966 -0.1%
Algeria 630 600 5.0% 0 0.0%
A South Korean refiner operating in Ulsan said Saudi crude Total* 75,332 96,917 -22.3% 81,760 -7.9%
official selling prices are “rather expensive,” and noted “as long as
Supplier Jan-Aug 2023 Jan-Aug 2022 % Change
Saudi Arabia maintains its firm production control stance, both Saudi Arabia 226,068 233,591 -3.2%
outright and OSP price differentials would trend higher, putting US 89,647 89,651 0.0%
Kuwait 75,348 81,872 -8.0%
pressure on Asian margins for cracking sour grades.” UAE 65,969 54,812 20.4%
Iraq 58,136 54,295 7.1%
Qatar 51,733 35,146 47.2%
Kazakhstan 32,522 33,569 -3.1%
Mexico 15,913 26,743 -40.5%
Australia 15,901 16,682 -4.7%
Brazil 13,072 15,596 -16.2%
Total* 661,431 696,607 -5.0%
Refinery updates
to below 10 ppm. viewing. Platts will consider all comments received and will make
The refinery is meant to supply 25% of Iran fuel. comments not marked as confidential available upon request.
Several petrochemical units will be built in the oil refinery to
produce polyether-polyurethane, MTBE, jet fuel, gasoline and Platts invites feedback on its Russia Domestic Oil Products
gasoil, Iran’s Shana news agency said. These projects are to cost methodology guide
Eur2.3 billion. As part of its commitment to open and transparent pricing
Source: INRA news agency and product specifications, Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity
— Aresu Eqbali Insights, would like to invite feedback on its Russia Domestic Oil
Products methodology, specifically the guidelines described in
REFINERY NEWS: Citgo reports sudden third-party the methodology guide posted online here: https://www.spglobal.
power outage at Corpus Christi, Texas, plant com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_files/en/our-
methodology/methodology-specifications/russia_domestic_
Refinery: Corpus Christi, Texas oil.pdf.
Capacity: 167,500 b/d Platts reviews all methodologies annually to ensure they
Owner: Citgo continue to reflect the physical markets under assessment,
Duration: Sept. 29 at 2:25 am to Sept. 30 at 2:25 pm and regularly assesses the relevance of methodologies through
Notes: Citgo reported flaring from its Corpus Christi, Texas, continuous contact with the market. Feedback on methodologies
refinery which began early Sept. 29 after the refinery lost power is always welcomed by Platts.
due to an outage from a third-party provider, the company said in Please send all comments, feedback, and questions to
a Sept. 29 filing with local regulators. [email protected] and [email protected].
“The refinery experienced a sudden third-party power supply For written comments, please provide a clear indication if
loss and subsequent flaring occurred,” said the Texas Committee comments are not intended for publication by Platts for public
on Environmental Quality filing. viewing. Platts will consider all comments received and will make
The filing said the units were being stabilized but flaring comments not marked as confidential available upon request.
continued.
“Operations personnel responded and worked diligently to Platts to resume US Midwest seasonal ULSK assessments
restore stable refinery operations,” the filing added. Oct. 2
A company spokesperson was not immediately available for Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, will resume its
comment. seasonal assessments for ultra-low sulfur kerosene in the US
Source: TCEQ Midwest markets Group 3 and Chicago, effective Oct. 2, 2023.
— Janet Mcgurty The publication will be suspended again in the spring.
These assessments appear on PGA pages 160, 420, 480, as
well as in US Marketscan and Oilgram Price Report under the
Subscriber Notes code PJACB00 for Group 3 and PJACD00 for Chicago.
Please send comments to [email protected]
Platts invites feedback on its Asia Pacific and Middle East and [email protected].
Crude Oil methodology guide For written comments, please provide a clear indication if
As part of its commitment to open and transparent pricing comments are not intended for publication by Platts for public
and product specifications, Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity viewing. Platts will consider all comments received and will make
Insights, would like to invite feedback on its Asia Pacific and comments not marked as confidential available upon request.
Middle East Crude Oil methodology, specifically the guidelines
described in the methodology guide posted online here: https:// Platts corrects Sept. 21 DME Oman marker price
www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/plattscontent/_assets/_ Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, has corrected
files/en/our-methodology/methodology-specifications/apag- the Sept. 21 DME Oman marker price, which should read as
crude-methodology.pdf. follows:
Platts reviews all methodologies annually to ensure they DME OMAN < XDOA001> $93.11
continue to reflect the physical markets under assessment, The assessment appears in Platts Global Alert and Platts
and regularly assesses the relevance of methodologies through Crude Oil Alert pages 702 and 703, and in the Crude Oil
continuous contact with the market. Feedback on methodologies Marketwire under the code above.
is always welcomed by Platts.
Please send all comments, feedback and questions to No Canadian crude assessments to be published Oct. 9
[email protected] and [email protected]. Platts will not publish Canadian crude oil assessments Oct. 9,
For written comments, please provide a clear indication if 2023, because of the Canadian Thanksgiving Holiday.
comments are not intended for publication by Platts for public Canadian crude assessments appear on Platts Global Alert
Energy Directive (RED II) framework. Market feedback received market participants do not anticipate normal activity to resume.
suggest requests for ISCC+ certification for bionaphtha used as Market sources indicate there has been no spot trade of these
chemical feedstock to be prevailing market practice and typical. grades in nearly a decade.
Where applicable, material accompanied with ISCC EU compliant The discontinuation will affect the following codes:
certification and sustainability documentation showing a Diff to Dated
Outright Diff to Brent Strip Diff to WTI Strip
minimum greenhouse gas saving of 50% under RED II framework Brent
Mesa 30 AAITB00 AAXBO00 AAXCC00 AAITH00
may be considered for the assessments, subject to normalization. Santa Barbara AAITD00 AAXAZ00 AAXBU00 AAITJ00
Platts understands while it is typical for buyers to request
for additional Kosher or Halal certifications for bionaphtha used The prices appear on Platts Global Alert page 280 and in Latin
as chemical feedstock, especially for consumer plastics or food Wire, Crude Oil Marketwire and Oilgram Price Report.
packaging production, material adhering to these additional Please send any feedback or questions to
certification may command a premium and may be normalized [email protected] and [email protected].
for the purpose of these assessments. For written comments, please provide a clear indication if
The new bionaphtha assessments are published on Platts comments are not intended for publication by Platts for public
LPGaswire, Oilgram Price Report, APAGscan, EUMarketscan viewing. Platts will consider all comments received and will make
and USMarketWire, Platts alerts fixed pages PGA0034, PGA1110, comments not marked as confidential available to the public
PGA1111, PGA1310, PGA1311, PGA1775 and Platts Dimensions Pro. upon request.
Daily Monthly
Description
Assessment Assessment Platts proposes including Afton’s AvGuard SDA in Singapore
Platts Bio-Naphtha FOB NWE USD/mt PAAAU00 PAAAU03
Platts Bio-Naphtha FOB NWE Eur/mt PAABU00 PAABU03 gasoil
Platts Bio-Naphtha FOB NWE Premium USD/mt PAADU00 PAADU03 Following a review of recognized additives contained in the
Platts Bio-Naphtha FOB NWE Premium Eur/mt PAAEU00 PAAEU03
FOB Singapore gasoil assessment process, Platts, part of S&P
Global Commodity Insights, proposes to begin reflecting AvGuard
Please send any comments or feedback Static Dissipating Additive by Afton Chemical.
to [email protected], The list of Platts gasoil recognized additives is intended to
[email protected],[email protected] provide clarity to market participants regarding which additives
and [email protected]. are generally considered to be merchantable and accepted
For written comments, please provide a clear indication if for cargoes delivered through the Platts Market on Close
comments are not intended for publication by Platts for public assessment process in Singapore.
viewing. Platts will consider all comments received and will make Platts does not align its FOB Singapore additives acceptance
comments not marked as confidential available upon request. to any particular importing country.
For the full list of previously identified additives, please see
Platts to discontinue Mesa 30 and Santa Barbara crude price http://plts.co/V0Ax30ru2Yi
assessments Please send all feedback, comments or questions by
Platts, a part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, will Oct. 31, 2023, to [email protected] and
discontinue publishing price assessments for Venezuela’s Mesa [email protected].
30 and Santa Barbara crudes effective Nov. 1 due to declining For written comments, please provide a clear indication if
production and a lack of spot market activity. comments are not intended for publication by Platts for public
Platts understands there is no spot-market activity for the viewing. Platts will consider all comments received and will make
Venezuelan grades Santa Barbara and Mesa 30. US sanctions comments not marked as confidential available to the public
have curtailed Venezuela production and trading activity, and upon request.
Chicago pipeline, Sep 29 (PGA page 160) Marine Fuel (PGA page 30)
(¢/gal) Mid Change RVP Differentials to NYMEX Change $/mt Change
Prem. unl 91 PPASQ00 329.15–329.25 329.200 +2.080 PPASQRV 13.5 AANY100 89.250 +8.750 0.5% FOB Singapore cargo AMFSA00 657.470 -8.220
CBOB AAREL00 232.65–232.75 232.700 +2.080 AARELRV 13.5 AANY101 -7.250 +8.750 0.5% FOB Fujairah cargo AMFFA00 644.500 -5.850
PBOB AAUEU00 330.15–330.25 330.200 +2.080 AAUEURV 13.5 AANY103 90.250 +8.750
RBOB PPARH00 233.65–233.75 233.700 +2.080 PPARHRV 13.5 AANY102 -6.250 +8.750 0.5% FOB Rotterdam barge PUMFD00 594.250 -9.750
Jet fuel PJAAF00 293.26–293.36 293.310 +4.270 ADILA00 -36.750 +1.250 0.5% FOB US Gulf Coast barge AUGMB00 629.250 -5.500
ULSD AATHA00 299.26–299.36 299.310 +4.770 ADLAI00 -30.750 +1.750 0.5% Dlvd US Atlantic Coast barge AUAMB00 629.250 -5.750
0.5% FOB Mediterranean cargo MFFMM00 591.750 -6.250
Chicago Buckeye Complex, Sep 29 (PGA page 160) 0.5% CIF Mediterranean cargo MFCMM00 610.250 -6.250
(¢/gal) Mid Change RVP Differentials to NYMEX Change $/barrel
CBOB ACBAA00 233.700 +0.080 ACBAARV 13.5 ACBAB00 -6.250 +6.750 0.5% FOB US Gulf Coast barge AUGMA00 99.090 -0.870
RBOB ACBAC00 234.700 +0.080 ACBACRV 13.5 ACBAD00 -5.250 +6.750
ULSD ACBAE00 306.810 +4.770 ACBAF00 -23.250 +1.750 0.5% Dlvd US Atlantic Coast barge AUAMA00 99.090 -0.910
vs FO 380 MOPS strip ($/mt)
Chicago Wolverine Pipeline, Sep 29 (PGA page 160) 0.5% FOB Singapore cargo AMOPA00 146.090 +11.360
(¢/gal) Mid Change RVP Differentials to NYMEX Change vs MF 0.5% MOPS strip ($/mt)
CBOB AGCWA00 234.950 +1.330 AGCWERV 13.5 AGCWB00 -5.000 +8.000 0.5% FOB Singapore cargo FOFSB00 11.620 +0.540
ULSD AGCWC00 303.560 +4.770 AGCWD00 -26.500 +1.750 0.5% FOB Singapore Bal mo FOFS000 NA NANA
0.5% FOB Singapore M1 FOFS001 648.750 -8.250
0.5% FOB Singapore M2 FOFS002 634.000 -8.450
0.5% FOB Singapore MOPS Strip FOFSA00 645.850 -8.760
(¢/gal)
Waterborne FOB USGC propane AAXIN00 83.650–83.670 83.660 -0.480
FOB USGC propane vs. Mt Belvieu AAXIP00 10.950–11.050 11.000 0.000
Waterborne FOB USGC butane ABTNA00 97.320 -0.500
FOB USGC butane vs. Mt Belvieu ABTNC00 9.000 0.000
VLGC freight rates Houston to NWE AAXIR00 25.670–25.770 25.720 0.000
VLGC freight rates Houston to Japan AAXIT00 45.100–45.120 45.110 0.000
Canada, Sep 29 (PGA page 230) Platts Euro denominated crude oil assessments (€/barrel) (PGA page 1252)
($/barrel) Mid Change Sep 29 Mid Change
33-63 Day Dated Strip AALEJ00 92.89–92.91 92.900 -1.320 Dated Brent AAPYR00 91.07–91.07 91.070 -1.445
Hebron AHEBA00 94.400 -1.320 Dated Brent (CIF) PCAKN00 91.746 -1.427
Terra Nova AAJUH00 95.58–95.62 95.600 -1.320 Urals (Mediterranean) AAPYS00 80.94–80.97 80.954 -1.498
Hibernia AAJKK00 95.83–95.87 95.850 -1.320
White Rose WTI (Nov) AAPYT00 86.13–86.15 86.140 -1.814
AAVJX00 96.58–96.62 96.600 -1.320
WTI MEH (Nov) AAYSA00 87.038 -1.626
Spread vs fwd DTD Brent Mid Change
Hebron AHEBC00 1.500 0.000 Mars (Nov) AAPYU00 84.81–84.83 84.816 -1.435
Terra Nova AAJUJ00 2.69/2.71 2.700 0.000 Euro/US$ forex rate: 1.057. Platts Euro denominated crude oil assessments are based on market values and a Euro/
Hibernia AAJKM00 2.94/2.96 2.950 0.000 US$ forex rate at 4:30 PM local London time.
White Rose AAVJY00 3.69/3.71 3.700 0.000
NYMEX Light sweet crude ($/barrel) (PGA page 705) ICE BWAVE (Brent weighted futures average)($/barrel) (PGA page 704)
Nov 23 NMCL001 90.79 -0.92 90.35 93.10 328309 332250 Nov 23 XIBW001 96.25
Dec 23 NMCL002 88.80 -0.79 88.45 90.96 146045 263820 Dec 23 XIBW002 93.92
Jan 24 NMCL003 86.98 -0.77 86.74 89.08 82317 156583 BWAVE data refer to previous day.
Feb 24 NMCL004 85.27 -0.71 85.09 87.30 39645 80285 ICE WTI ($/barrel) (PGA page 704)
Total NMCL000 773725 XNCLP00 11851
Nov 23 ICIC001 90.79 -0.92 90.37 93.11 38546 69213
NYMEX NY ULSD ($/gal) (PGA page 705) Dec 23 ICIC002 88.80 -0.79 88.49 90.96 58391 109212
Oct 23 NMHO001 3.3622 +0.0442 3.3328 3.4066 2429 91424 Jan 24 ICIC003 86.98 -0.77 86.83 89.07 45924 53451
Nov 23 NMHO002 3.3006 +0.0302 3.2694 3.3564 57370 58227 Feb 24 ICIC004 85.27 -0.71 85.18 87.17 33459 34578
Dec 23 NMHO003 3.1578 +0.0043 3.1489 3.2218 46458 47238 Total ICIC000 217038 XIICP00 8909
Jan 24 NMHO004 3.0656 -0.0147 3.0591 3.1387 27511 27822 ICE low sulfur Gasoil ($/mt) (PGA page 704)
Total NMHO000 182753 XNHOP00 9208
Oct 23 ICLO001 1001.50 +5.75 988.25 1012.75 51565 99173
NYMEX RBOB unleaded gasoline ($/gal) (PGA page 705) Nov 23 ICLO002 966.25 +3.00 955.75 978.25 85471 148335
Oct 23 NMRB001 2.4399 -0.0654 2.4326 2.5221 2403 126573 Dec 23 ICLO003 926.75 +0.75 915.75 938.75 66183 130295
Nov 23 NMRB002 2.3995 -0.0667 2.3925 2.4858 56329 70722 Jan 24 ICLO004 901.75 -1.50 890.75 913.75 24775 64364
Dec 23 NMRB003 2.3496 -0.0588 2.3434 2.4300 51047 49052 Total ICLO000 293183 XILOP00 4920
Jan 24 NMRB004 2.3237 -0.0568 2.3190 2.4014 22617 20875 *Volume, open interest and PNT reflect prior trading day. PNT reflect volume for Privately Negotiated Trades or off-
Total NMRB000 169481 XNRBP00 11525 exchange. **Oman settlements are Post Close settlements. ***IFAD Murban spread to 1st Line (Nov 23) Platts Dubai
crude futures. ****Privately Negotiated Trade values found on PGA page 710
ICE Midland WTI American Gulf Coast ($/barrel) (PGA page 704)
Source: CQG
Nov 23 IHOU001 91.75 -0.86 91.72 93.75 567 5771
Dec 23 IHOU002 89.84 -0.74 89.62 91.70 614 4677
Jan 24 IHOU003 88.09 -0.67 87.99 89.86 356 3918
Feb 24 IHOU004 86.43 -0.63 86.43 86.43 9 3804
NYMEX Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) (PGA page 705)
Nov 23 NMNG001 2.929 -0.02 2.855 2.997 103070 288276
Dec 23 NMNG002 3.312 -0.03 3.255 3.382 34164 91275
Jan 24 NMNG003 3.565 -0.03 3.512 3.632 27773 131328
Feb 24 NMNG004 3.497 -0.03 3.445 3.558 11068 45525
Total NMNG000 253898 XNNGP00 3422
DME Oman crude ($/barrel)** (PGA pages 702 & 2710)
Nov 23 Asia XDOA001 93.98 -0.83 0
Nov 23 DMOQ001 93.98 -1.07 93.98 95.34 0 20107
Dec 23 DMOQ002 92.29 -2.76 92.29 93.49 290 282
Jan 24 DMOQ003 90.45 -2.68 90.45 90.45 0 10
Feb 24 DMOQ004 88.91 -2.68 88.91 88.91 0 0
Total DMOQ000 778 XDOQP00 283
IFAD Murban crude ($/barrel) (PGA page 703)
Nov 23 AMIFA00 96.160
Murban vs Dubai*** AMIFB00 4.680
ICE Brent ($/barrel) (PGA page 704)
Nov 23 ICLL001 95.31 -0.07 94.90 96.26 13988 68330
Dec 23 ICLL002 92.20 -0.90 91.96 94.13 469488 626169
Jan 24 ICLL003 90.36 -0.82 90.15 92.30 216490 343194
Feb 24 ICLL004 88.82 -0.82 88.64 90.77 99837 152004
Total ICLL000 1101557 XILLP00 43983
Commodity Insights Analytics Weekly Feeder Crudes: September 25 - September 29, 2023
US Gulf Coast (PGA page 0837) US Gulf Coast (PGA page 0835)
Crack Yield Freight Crack Netback Crude Price Crack Margin Coke Yield Coke Freight Coke Netback Crude Price Coke Margin
Agbami AGGCY04 111.74 AGGFA04 2.39 AGGCN04 109.35 AAQZB04 93.01 AGGCM04 15.57
Arab Berri BEGCY04 111.49 TDDAC04 1.32 BEGCN04 110.18 AAIGY00 99.11 BEGCM04 11.07
Arab Heavy AHGCY04 99.29 TDDAJ04 1.39 AHGCN04 97.90 AAIGV00 97.21 AHGCM04 0.69 Arab Heavy AHGOY04 107.04 TDDAJ04 1.39 AHGON04 105.66 AAIGV00 97.21 AHGOM04 8.45
Arab Light LIGCY04 107.50 TDDAR04 1.35 LIGCN04 106.15 AAIGP00 96.96 LIGCM04 9.19 Arab Light LIGOY04 109.68 TDDAR04 1.35 LIGON04 108.33 AAIGP00 96.96 LIGOM04 11.37
Arab Medium MEGCY04 102.23 TDDAZ04 1.35 MEGCN04 100.88 AAIGS00 97.66 MEGCM04 3.22 Arab Medium MEGOY04 105.92 TDDAZ04 1.35 MEGON04 104.56 AAIGS00 97.66 MEGOM04 6.90
Bakken BKGCY04 110.43 TDDRP04 7.78 BKGCN04 102.65 AAXPP04 88.25 BKGCM04 14.40
Basrah Heavy BHGOY04 103.92 BHGFA04 2.37 BHGON04 101.55 AALZC04 92.54 BHGOM04 15.54
Basrah Medium BLGCY04 100.12 TDDBS04 2.27 BLGCN04 97.85 BSMAM41 95.80 BLGCM04 7.79 Basrah Medium BLGOY04 105.98 TDDBS04 2.27 BLGON04 103.71 BSMAM41 95.80 BLGOM04 13.65
Bonny Light YLGCY04 113.76 TDDBX04 2.60 YLGCN04 111.16 PCAAO00 96.24 YLGCM04 14.16
Brent BRGCY04 110.04 TDDCB04 2.34 BRGCN04 107.70 AAVJA04 96.44 BRGCM04 10.49
Cabinda CBGCY04 107.96 TDDCF04 2.79 CBGCN04 105.17 PCAFD10 96.01 CBGCM04 8.40 Cabinda CBGOY04 108.50 TDDCF04 2.79 CBGON04 105.71 PCAFD10 96.01 CBGOM04 8.93
Castilla Blend CSGOY04 101.18 CSGFA04 1.55 CSGON04 99.63 AAVEQ04 84.40 CSGOM04 15.22
Eagle Ford EAGCY04 110.76 AAEFO04 92.32 EAGCM04 18.44
Escalante ECGCY04 101.92 TDDCV04 3.13 ECGCN04 98.79 AAIIN00 89.56 ECGCM04 8.33
Forties FTGCY04 109.37 FTGFA04 2.15 FTGCN04 107.22 PCADJ10 95.92 FTGCM04 10.54
Isthmus ISGCY04 107.91 TDDDJ04 1.02 ISGCN04 106.89 PCADY00 89.40 ISGCM04 17.49
LLS LLGCY04 114.12 TDDQW04 0.55 LLGCN04 113.57 AAIIQ00 93.34 LLGCM04 20.23 LLS LLGOY04 114.27 TDDQW04 0.55 LLGON04 113.72 AAIIQ00 93.34 LLGOM04 20.38
Marlim MLGCY04 105.41 TDDGK04 2.51 MLGCN04 102.90 AAITF04 87.25 MLGCM04 14.75 Marlim MLGOY04 109.13 TDDGK04 2.51 MLGON04 106.62 AAITF04 87.25 MLGOM04 18.47
Mars MRGCY04 104.43 TDDQY04 0.55 MRGCN04 103.88 AAIIM00 89.71 MRGCM04 14.17 Mars MRGOY04 107.97 TDDQY04 0.55 MRGON04 107.42 AAIIM00 89.71 MRGOM04 17.71
Maya MYGCY04 91.26 TDDDP04 1.06 MYGCN04 90.20 PCADB10 86.65 MYGCM04 3.55 Maya MYGOY04 103.25 TDDDP04 1.06 MYGON04 102.19 PCADB10 86.65 MYGOM04 15.54
Mesa MSGCY04 105.86 TDDDV04 1.48 MSGCN04 104.37 AAIZY00 89.62 MSGCM04 14.75
Napo NPGOY04 99.34 NPGFA04 3.21 NPGON04 96.13 AAMCA04 82.48 NPGOM04 12.79
Olmeca OLGCY04 110.65 TDDDY04 1.02 OLGCN04 109.63 AAIJS00 89.45 OLGCM04 20.17
Oriente ORGOY04 106.47 ORGFA04 3.05 ORGON04 103.42 PCADE10 85.63 ORGOM04 16.99
Poseidon PDGCY04 103.98 PDGFA04 0.00 PDGCN04 103.98 AABHK04 88.77 PDGCM04 15.21
Saharan Blend SHGCY04 110.70 TDDRD04 1.81 SHGCN04 108.89 PCABU00 95.61 SHGCM04 12.52
Syncrude SYGCY04 113.95 SYGFA04 8.52 SYGCN04 105.43 AASOK04 91.99 SYGCM04 13.44
Urals URGCY04 106.52 TDDFM04 2.48 URGCN04 104.04 AAWVH04 82.18 URGCM04 21.10 Urals URGOY04 109.19 TDDFM04 2.48 URGON04 106.71 AAWVH04 82.18 URGOM04 23.77
Vasconia VCGOY04 111.22 VCGFA04 1.52 VCGON04 109.70 PCAGI04 87.90 VCGOM04 21.80
WCS ex-Hardisty WHGOY04 104.13 TDDRS04 8.50 WHGON04 95.63 AAPPN04 70.89 WHGOM04 24.74
WCS ex-Nederland WNGOY04 104.13 WCGFA04 0.00 WNGON04 104.13 AAYAY04 82.94 WNGOM04 21.19
WTI WTGCY04 110.64 AAYRG04 92.37 WTGCM04 18.27
WTS WSGCY04 107.12 TDDRJ04 6.89 WSGCN04 100.23 PCACK10 91.50 WSGCM04 8.73 WTS WSGOY04 111.02 TDDRJ04 6.89 WSGON04 104.13 PCACK10 91.50 WSGOM04 12.63
Commodity Insights Analytics Monthly Average Yields & Netbacks, August 2023
US Gulf Coast US Gulf Coast
Crack Yield Freight Crack Netback Crude Price Crack Margin Coke Yield Coke Freight Coke Netback Crude Price Coke Margin
Agbami AGGCY03 109.34 AGGFA03 2.37 AGGCN03 106.92 AAQZB03 84.23 AGGCM03 21.74
Arab Berri BEGCY03 108.90 TDDAC03 1.32 BEGCN03 107.59 AAISO00 91.52 BEGCM03 16.07
Arab Heavy AHGCY03 98.22 TDDAJ03 1.39 AHGCN03 96.83 AAISL00 89.62 AHGCM03 7.21 Arab Heavy AHGOY03 104.32 TDDAJ03 1.39 AHGON03 102.94 AAISL00 89.62 AHGOM03 13.32
Arab Light LIGCY03 105.28 TDDAR03 1.35 LIGCN03 103.93 AAISF00 89.37 LIGCM03 14.56 Arab Light LIGOY03 107.69 TDDAR03 1.35 LIGON03 106.34 AAISF00 89.37 LIGOM03 16.97
Arab Medium MEGCY03 100.52 TDDAZ03 1.35 MEGCN03 99.17 AAISI00 90.07 MEGCM03 9.10 Arab Medium MEGOY03 103.66 TDDAZ03 1.35 MEGON03 102.31 AAISI00 90.07 MEGOM03 12.24
Bakken BKGCY03 108.84 TDDRP03 7.78 BKGCN03 101.06 AAXPP03 80.57 BKGCM03 20.49
Basrah Heavy BHGOY03 100.52 BHGFA03 2.35 BHGON03 97.96 AALZC03 83.85 BHGOM03 19.78
Basrah Medium BLGCY03 98.32 TDDBS03 2.25 BLGCN03 95.85 BSMAM31 86.92 BLGCM03 13.77 Basrah Medium BLGOY03 103.43 TDDBS03 2.25 BLGON03 100.97 BSMAM31 86.92 BLGOM03 18.89
Bonny Light YLGCY03 111.82 TDDBX03 2.58 YLGCN03 109.20 PCAIF03 86.73 YLGCM03 21.52
Brent BRGCY03 108.08 TDDCB03 2.47 BRGCN03 105.60 AAVJA03 86.34 BRGCM03 18.30
Cabinda CBGCY03 105.60 TDDCF03 2.78 CBGCN03 102.77 PCAFD03 87.66 CBGCM03 14.17 Cabinda CBGOY03 106.52 TDDCF03 2.78 CBGON03 103.71 PCAFD03 87.66 CBGOM03 15.11
Castilla Blend CSGOY03 99.37 CSGFA03 2.02 CSGON03 97.35 AAVEQ03 77.96 CSGOM03 19.39
Eagle Ford EAGCY03 109.48 AAYAT03 82.65 EAGCM03 26.84
Escalante ECGCY03 99.54 TDDCV03 3.79 ECGCN03 95.74 PCAGC03 82.54 ECGCM03 12.30
Forties FTGCY03 107.59 FTGFA03 2.26 FTGCN03 105.30 PCADJ03 86.26 FTGCM03 18.10
Isthmus ISGCY03 105.92 TDDDJ03 1.25 ISGCN03 104.67 PDATO39 79.61 ISGCM03 25.07
LLS LLGCY03 111.63 TDDQW03 0.55 LLGCN03 111.08 PCABN03 84.01 LLGCM03 27.06 LLS LLGOY03 111.86 TDDQW03 0.55 LLGON03 111.31 PCABN03 84.01 LLGOM03 27.30
Marlim MLGCY03 102.79 TDDGK03 3.02 MLGCN03 99.77 AAITG00 80.81 MLGCM03 18.06 Marlim MLGOY03 105.33 TDDGK03 3.02 MLGON03 102.32 AAITG00 80.81 MLGOM03 20.61
Mars MRGCY03 102.35 TDDQY03 0.55 MRGCN03 101.80 AAMBS00 82.12 MRGCM03 19.68 Mars MRGOY03 105.97 TDDQY03 0.55 MRGON03 105.42 AAMBS00 82.12 MRGOM03 23.30
Maya MYGCY03 88.64 TDDDP03 1.31 MYGCN03 87.33 PDATS39 77.01 MYGCM03 10.32 Maya MYGOY03 100.67 TDDDP03 1.31 MYGON03 99.36 PDATS39 77.01 MYGOM03 22.35
Mesa MSGCY03 103.39 TDDDV03 1.92 MSGCN03 101.47 AAITC00 82.03 MSGCM03 19.44
Napo NPGOY03 97.56 NPGFA03 3.73 NPGON03 93.83 AAMCC00 74.05 NPGOM03 18.93
Olmeca OLGCY03 108.54 TDDDY03 1.26 OLGCN03 107.28 PDATT39 79.66 OLGCM03 27.62
Oriente ORGOY03 104.21 ORGFA03 3.52 ORGON03 100.69 PCADE03 76.20 ORGOM03 23.68
Poseidon PDGCY03 102.88 PDGFA03 0.00 PDGCN03 102.88 AABHL00 81.57 PDGCM03 21.31
Saharan Blend SHGCY03 109.25 TDDRD03 1.81 SHGCN03 107.41 AAJIB00 85.38 SHGCM03 21.08
Syncrude SYGCY03 111.51 SYGFA03 8.52 SYGCN03 103.06 AASOK03 83.24 SYGCM03 19.82
Urals URGCY03 104.43 TDDFM03 2.63 URGCN03 101.79 AAWVH03 71.57 URGCM03 29.27 Urals URGOY03 107.05 TDDFM03 2.63 URGON03 104.39 AAWVH03 71.57 URGOM03 31.88
Vasconia VCGOY03 108.18 VCGFA03 1.97 VCGON03 106.21 PCAGI03 80.92 VCGOM03 25.28
WCS ex-Hardisty WHGOY03 101.94 TDDRS03 8.50 WHGON03 93.49 AAPPN03 63.87 WHGOM03 29.63
WCS ex-Nederland WNGOY03 101.94 WCGFA03 0.00 WNGON03 101.99 AAYAY03 74.03 WNGOM03 27.96
WTI WTGCY03 108.64 AAYRG03 83.03 WTGCM03 25.61
WTS WSGCY03 105.53 TDDRJ03 6.89 WSGCN03 98.64 PCACK03 82.25 WSGCM03 16.40 WTS WSGOY03 109.04 TDDRJ03 6.89 WSGON03 102.15 PCACK03 82.25 WSGOM03 19.91
US Atlantic Coast
Crack Yield Freight Crack Netback Crude Price Crack Margin
Agbami AGACY03 112.83 AGAFA03 2.10 AGACN03 110.68 AAQZB03 84.23 AGACM03 25.50
Arab Light LIACY03 107.39 TDDAU03 1.35 LIACN03 106.04 AAISF00 89.37 LIACM03 16.67
Bakken BKACY03 113.52 TDDRN03 7.20 BKACN03 106.32 AAXPP03 80.57 BKACM03 25.75
Bonny Light YLACY03 114.13 TDDBZ03 2.29 YLACN03 111.78 PCAIF03 86.73 YLACM03 24.10
Brent BRACY03 110.87 TDDCC03 2.32 BRACN03 108.51 AAVJA03 86.34 BRACM03 22.11
Cabinda CBACY03 108.66 TDDCH03 2.49 CBACN03 106.12 PCAFD03 87.66 CBACM03 17.51
CPC Blend CPACY03 112.86 CPAFA03 2.74 CPACN03 110.07 AALVY00 81.34 CPACM03 28.68
Forties FTACY03 112.67 FTAFA03 2.14 FTACN03 110.49 PCADJ03 86.26 FTACM03 24.19
Saharan Blend SHACY03 113.42 SHAFA03 1.56 SHACN03 111.82 AAJIB00 85.38 SHACM03 25.49
Urals URACY03 106.58 URAFA03 2.06 URACN03 104.49 AAWVH03 71.57 URACM03 31.97
Weekly asphalt cement assessments, Sep 29 (PGA page 580) Monthly spot lube assessments, September 2023 (PGA page 1146)
Market $/ton Mid Change $/mt Mid Change
Arkansas PPARP00 590.00–600.00 595.000 +10.000
Colorado PPARU00 565.00–575.00 570.000 +10.000 USGC
Montana PPASM00 565.00–575.00 570.000 +10.000 150 SN PLAAB00 1155.00–1175.00 1165.000 +100.000
California PPARW00 620.00–630.00 625.000 +10.000 500 SN PLAAE00 1605.00–1625.00 1615.000 +130.000
Illinois PPARX00 580.00–590.00 585.000 +10.000 Bright Stock PLAAH00 2060.00–2080.00 2070.000 +170.000
Georgia PPARQ00 655.00–665.00 660.000 +10.000
Europe
Minneapolis/St. Paul PPARR00 570.00–580.00 575.000 +10.000
Ohio PPARY00 570.00–580.00 575.000 +10.000 150 SN PLAAC00 830.00–850.00 840.000 +70.000
Oklahoma AAUQO00 585.00–595.00 590.000 +10.000 500 SN PLAAF00 1075.00–1095.00 1085.000 +90.000
Kansas PPARZ00 600.00–610.00 605.000 +10.000 Bright Stock PLAAI00 1430.00–1450.00 1440.000 +120.000
Texas PPART00 570.00–580.00 575.000 +10.000 Asia
Louisiana PPALA00 580.00–590.00 585.000 +10.000
150 SN PLAAA00 810.00–830.00 820.000 +70.000
MidAtlantic AAWIC00 625.00–635.00 630.000 +10.000
500 SN PLAAD00 975.00–995.00 985.000 +80.000
Tampa AAWID00 590.00–600.00 595.000 +10.000
Bright Stock PLAAG00 1265.00–1285.00 1275.000 +105.000