N20/3/GEOGR/BP2/ENG/TZ0/XX/M

Markscheme

November 2020

Geography

Higher level and standard level

Paper 2

13 pages
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Paper 2 Section C markbands

Marks Level descriptor

AO1: Knowledge and understanding of AO3: Synthesis and AO4: Selection, use and
specified content evaluation application of a variety of
appropriate skills and
AO2: Application and analysis of
techniques
knowledge and understanding

0 The work does not reach a standard described by the descriptors below.
1–2 The response is too brief, lists unconnected information, is not focused on the question and lacks
structure.
• The response is very brief or descriptive, • No evidence of evaluation • Information presented is not
listing a series of unconnected or conclusion is expected grouped logically (in
comments or largely irrelevant at this level. paragraphs or sections).
information. The knowledge and • Maps, graphs or diagrams
understanding presented is very general are not included, are
with large gaps or errors in irrelevant or difficult to
interpretation. Examples or case studies decipher (only if appropriate
are not included or only listed. to the question).
• There is no evidence of analysis.
• Terminology is missing, not defined,
irrelevant or used incorrectly.

3–4 The response is too general, lacks detail, is not focused on the question and is largely unstructured.

• The response is very general. The • If appropriate to the • Most of the information is not
knowledge and understanding presented question, the conclusion is grouped logically (in
outlines examples, statistics, and facts irrelevant. paragraphs or sections).
that are both relevant and irrelevant. • There is no evidence of • Maps, graphs or diagrams
Links to the question are listed. critical evaluation of included lack detail, are
• The argument or analysis presented is evidence (examples, incorrectly or only partially
not relevant to the question. statistics and case studies). interpreted without explicit
• Basic terminology is defined and used connections to the question
but with errors in understanding or used (only if appropriate to the
inconsistently. question).
5–6 The response partially addresses the question, but with a narrow argument, an unsubstantiated
conclusion, and limited evaluation.
• The response describes relevant • If appropriate to the • Logically related information
supporting evidence (information, question, the conclusions is grouped together (in
examples, case studies et cetera), are general, not aligned sections or paragraphs) but
outlining appropriate link(s) to the with the evidence not consistently.
question. presented and/or based on • Maps, graphs or diagrams
• The argument or analysis partially an incorrect interpretation included do not follow
addresses the question or elaborates of the evidence. conventions, and include
one point repeatedly. • Other perspectives on relevant and irrelevant
• Relevant terminology is defined and evidence (examples, interpretations in the text
used with only minor errors in statistics and case studies) (only if appropriate to the
understanding or is used inconsistently. and/or strengths and question).
weaknesses of evidence
are listed.
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7–8 The response addresses the whole question, the analysis is evaluated and the conclusion is relevant
but lacks balance.
• The response describes • If appropriate to the question, the • Logically related
relevant supporting evidence conclusion is relevant to the information is grouped
correctly (information, examples question, aligned with the evidence together (in sections)
and case studies) that covers all but unbalanced. consistently.
the main points of the question, • Other perspectives on evidence • Maps, graphs or
describing appropriate links to (examples, statistics and case diagrams included
the question. studies) and/or strengths and contribute to/support the
• The argument or analysis is weaknesses of evidence are argument or analysis
clear and relevant to the described. (only if appropriate to
question but one-sided or the question).
unbalanced.
• Complex terminology is defined
and used correctly but not
consistently.
9–10 The response is in-depth and question-specific (topic and command term); analysis and conclusion
are justified through well-developed evaluation of evidence and perspectives.
• The response explains correct • If appropriate to the question, the • Response is logically
and relevant examples, statistics conclusion is relevant to the structured with
and details that are integrated in question, balanced and aligned with discussion (and if
the response, explaining the the evidence. appropriate to the
appropriate link to the question. • Evaluation includes a systematic and question, a conclusion)
• The argument or analysis is detailed presentation of ideas, cause focusing on the
balanced, presenting evidence and effect relations, other argument or points
that is discussed, explaining perspectives; strengths and made, making it easy to
complexity, exceptions and weaknesses of evidence are follow.
comparisons. discussed; (if appropriate) includes • Maps, graphs or
• Complex and relevant justification of the argument and diagrams are annotated
terminology is used correctly conclusion. following conventions
throughout the response. and their relevance is
explained and support
the argument or
analysis (only if
appropriate to the
question).
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Section A
1. Changing population

(a) Describe the projected trends for the two dependent population groups from 2020
to 2060. [2]

Award [1] for each valid descriptive statement. Needs separate reference to both
elderly [1] and children [1] for maximum marks.

Quantification is needed for [2].

Possibilities include:
• 65 and over - no change / the proportion increases (actual amount remains 34-36 million
but the percentage of 65 and over increases)
• 0 –15 - drops (from 14-16 in 2020 to 7-9 in 2060) / the proportion of the total
population decreases).

(b) Suggest two potential socio-economic problems that could result from the
projected population trend. [2+2]

The trend can be falling population total / a greying population / decreasing

number of children.

Allow [1] for a valid problem and [1] for development or exemplification.

Possibilities include:

• declining population and the resulting economic implications, such as a reduced work
force, decreased tax revenue, shortage of qualified workers, declining productivity, high
labour costs, a smaller tax base
• declining population and social implications, such as social consequences of immigration
caused by shortage of workers
• increased dependency ratio/ageing population - increased expenditure to care
for an ageing population due to pensions, health care
• decreasing number of children – may lead to closure of schools,
unemployment in education sector

For example: An ageing population [1] would need more money to be spent on pensions [1],
which would take a larger proportion of a nation’s GDP [1]. as seen in the UK [1].

For example: A declining population [1] means that there will be a smaller
workforce [1], which may mean that people are made to stay in work for longer [1].
In recent years the retirement age in Canada has increased from 65 to 67 [1].

(c) Explain two ways in which one named country benefits from a demographic
dividend. [2+2]

Allow [1] for a valid way and [1] for development or exemplification.

Possibilities include:
• Increased proportion of the population in the independent age range –
provides a larger work force, increase in economic growth, potentially a larger
market, increase in tax returns
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• Falling fertility rates – more women enter the workforce, boosting gender
equity, lower proportion of children to support, frees up resources for
investment in economic development/family welfare

• Attracts large amounts of foreign investment, the nation becomes more

important on the global stage.

• Increase in savings rate – working age is the prime period for saving, working
population saving for old age

• Potential reduction in poverty – higher proportion of population working,

(higher proportion of middle-income earners)

For example: India has one of the youngest populations and this will give an
increase in economic growth [1] due to an increase in the proportion of independent
population that provides a workforce [1].

Award a maximum of [3] if no valid country is identified.

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2. Global climate – vulnerability and resilience

(a) (i) State the age at which the average US citizen produces the most
CO2 emissions. [1]

65 (accept 64–66)

(ii) State the age range in which the most rapid increase in CO2 emissions occurs. [1]

13–23 (accept answers between 12-14 and 22-24)

(b) Suggest two health hazards that may result from climate change. [2+2]

In each case, award [1] for identification of a valid health hazard, with a further [1]
for development.

Possibilities include:

• Health hazards associated with extreme heat – cardiovascular and respiratory diseases.
• Health hazards associated with drought – gastroenteritis, salmonella, typhoid.
• Health hazards associated with floods – cholera, malaria, drowning.
• Health hazards associated with extreme weather such as hurricanes – injury, asphyxiation
in a landslide
• Health hazards associated with changing (distribution of) climates – northward movement
of tropical insects, increase in disease carrying organisms - mosquitoes.
• Health hazards that result from changes in agricultural production – undernourishment,
leading to diseases such as marasmus and diarrhea.
• Mental health issues that are linked to climate change - anxiety, depression and post-
traumatic stress disorder linked to extreme weather-related natural disasters, decline in
farm outputs can lead to stress
• Melting permafrost may release viruses stored in the soil – anthrax in Siberia in 2016.

For example: Climate change is expected to cause an expansion of the geographic range and
seasonality of ticks [1], which has led to an increase in Lyme disease and other tick-borne
diseases in parts of North America and Europe [1].

(c) Explain how two methods of geo-engineering could mitigate climate change. [2+2]

In each case, award [1] for identification of a valid method of the deliberate large-scale
manipulation of an environmental process that affects the Earth's climate, with a further [1]
for explanation.

Possibilities include:
• Large-scale afforestation – removes atmospheric CO2.
• Carbon dioxide removal by artificial trees.
• Ocean fertilization – adding nutrients to oceans to encourage growth of CO2-eating
plankton.
• Reflective aerosols - inject particles of Sulphur into the atmosphere – act as aerosols and
reflect sunlight.
• Space mirrors – these reflect solar radiation so that it does not reach the Earth’s surface.
• Cloud seeding
• Albedo modification - increase number of reflective surfaces such as roads, roofs –
enhances albedo. High albedo crops, micro-bubbling – releasing air bubbles into ocean
surface to increase albedo, vertical gardens/green buildings at scale above local
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For example: CO2 removal from the atmosphere by carbon filtering [1]. Captured
carbon is then stored in rocks [1].

3. Global resource consumption and security

(a) Describe what is meant by an individual’s ecological footprint. [2]

The approximate area of land and water needed to provide a person with the
resources needed to live [1] and to absorb their waste [1].

(b) Suggest two ways in which meeting a nation’s water needs could result in
reduced food availability. [2+2]

In each case, award [1] for a valid way a nation’s water needs are met and [1] for
its impact on reducing food availability.

Possibilities of valid ways include:

• over extraction of groundwater for crop production (food or non-
food)/industry/urban demands
• reservoirs built to provide water for urban areas/cash crop production, reservoirs built in
one country use water that another country needs for agriculture
• one country’s water imports leave another country with less water, imports of water cost
money – less to invest in agriculture
• water used by tourism.

Possibilities of reduction of food availability include:

• decreasing the supply of water to agricultural areas/farms
• taking over agricultural land
• impacts upon the quality of water used in agriculture

For example: Over-extraction for cash crops [1] leads to insufficient water left to
grow food crops [1].

(c) Explain how a circular economy approach can contribute to:

(i) reduced use of new resources; [2]

Award [1] for a valid way of reducing new resources and [1] for development.

Possibilities include:
• recycling of materials means that less raw material is required, reference to
inputs and outputs using systems approach
• reuse/refurbishment of goods decreases the demand for new goods and
therefore raw materials
• industrial symbiosis – turning one industry’s by-product into another’s raw
materials
• design/consume products that are built to last/durable
• resource efficiency by reducing the quantity of materials needed to produce a
good – rraw materials/energy/water – asset sharing, reduced storage of
perishable material, use of technology
• incentivizing use of recycled/reused materials – taxes on products that use only
virgin raw materials eg plastic packaging
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For example: Products are produced in such a way that they have a “life after
death” [1], as parts will have further use later [1], decreases need for raw
materials.

(ii) changing attitudes to product ownership. [2]

Award [1] for a valid change and [1] for development.

Possibilities include:
• changes in consumer behaviour – fast fashion, food waste, single use plastic
bags
• consume less – owning fewer consumer goods means less production is
required
• accepting the purchase of pre-owned goods – using pre-owned clothes cuts
down on raw materials/energy needed for clothes
• purchase of goods that are built to last – prolongs the life of goods so renewal is
reduced
• consumption of goods that are produced in more sustainable ways
• product renting/lease/pooling – avoid purchasing for individuals altogether – shift
to sharing platforms – decrease in consumption of CDs and DVDs and use of
online entertainment.

For example: People rent goods as opposed to buying them [1], which means
that they are less likely to be “designed for the dump” [1].
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Section B
4. (a) Describe trends in the proportion of fuel directly imported into Australia between
2000 and 2013. [2]

Award [1] for each trend. Two trends required for [2]. Quantification needed for
[2].

• Increasing overall.
• Slow increase between 2000 and 2004.
• More rapid increase between 2007 and 2013.
• Fluctuating.

(b) Suggest one graphical method that could depict the information in box A, giving a
reason for your choice. [2]

Award [1] for a valid suggestion and [1] for reason for choice.

Possibilities include:
• Bar graph – easily constructed/analysed, contains categorized data.
• Proportional shapes – easy visual analysis.
• Pie charts – easy to identify relative proportions.
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(c) To what extent might this infographic make Australian citizens more concerned
about their energy security than they need to be? [6]

Award [1] mark for each relevant point and [1] for each supported
development/explanation, up to a maximum of [5]. Award the final [1] for an
overall appraisal that weighs up the infographic as a whole.

Award a maximum of [4] if only one perspective is given.

Relevant points include:

More concerned:
• Fuel supply could run out in weeks
• Conflict in the Middle East and impacts on financial stability – costs of fuel increase.
• Piracy and impacts on shipping lanes.
• Reliance on Singapore.
• Increasing reliance on imports of fuel.
• Closure of refineries decreases ability to process raw fuels.
• Infographic does not emphasize renewable energy possibilities.
• Negative language – dramatic nature of the title, boxes introduced as risks
• Infographic supplied by a reliable source

Not concerned:
• Australia has abundant renewable and non-renewable energy resources
• Australia is the world’s 9th largest energy producer
• Many of the risks are predictions rather than actual issues
• Introduction of non-oil based alternative fuels, electric cars

Appraisal – accept any valid appraisal linked to supporting materials from the
infographic
• Overall tone is pessimistic rather than optimistic.
• Infographic gives feeling of vulnerability
• Infographic provides a series of possible solutions.
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Section C
5. “The growth of the global middle class will inevitably accelerate climate change.” To what
extent do you agree with this statement? [10]

Marks should be allocated according to the markbands on pages 3–4.

Possible applied themes (AO2) demonstrating knowledge and understanding

(AO1):
• Reponses could show some understanding of the main anthropogenic causes of climate
change. The enhanced greenhouse effect should be explored, with a focus on an increase in
GHGs is the atmosphere – such as CO2, CH4. Sources of these emissions vary over time and
space but there is a definite link between a region’s/individual’s emissions and their level of
socio-economic development. Per capita global emissions are much higher in high-income
regions, as they are linked to development, trade and globalization.
• As low- to middle-income countries develop over time, there is an increase in the standard of
living of many millions of their inhabitants. This emerging middle class, given the present model
of development, will increase their ecological footprint as consumption and waste generation
increases. For example, as disposable income has increased in China over the past 30 years,
diets have changed to include more meat. Animal agriculture is a major contributor of
greenhouse gasses like methane, and many carbon sinks – such as rainforests – are being
cleared to accommodate more grazing land or land for growing cattle feed.
• As this global middle class grows, so does their consumption of fossil fuels, as there is an
increase in electricity consumption and car ownership and a demand for foreign goods, which
increases global trade – all activities which rely on the use of traditional fossil fuels in many
nations.
• It could be noted that the per capita emissions of individuals in high-income nations are still
much higher and have been so for a long time.
• Alternatively, responses may disagree with the statement and argue that, as a new middle class
grows, there are opportunities to learn from the mistakes of the past and to develop using
greener technologies, thus keeping ecological footprints to more sustainable levels than those
of the “Economic North”.
• Responses could argue that it is already too late and that we have reached a tipping
point where feedback loops are already at play, causing irreversible climate change.

Good answers may be well structured (AO4) and may additionally offer a critical
evaluation (AO3) that focuses on the relative role of the growing middle class on
speeding up climate change. Responses may address the spatial aspect of middle-
class growth and the varying impacts upon climate change.

For 5–6 marks

Expect a weakly evidenced outlining of some links between rising wealth and climate
change / carbon emissions.

For 7–8 marks

Expect a well-structured account which includes:
• either a well-evidenced synthesis that links together several themes from the Guide and
acknowledges both sides of the argument
• or a critical conclusion (or ongoing evaluation) informed by geographical concepts
and/or perspectives.

For 9–10 marks

Expect both traits.
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6. “Resource insecurity is becoming the main cause of forced migration.” To what extent do
you agree with this statement? [10]

Marks should be allocated according to the markbands on pages 3–4.

Possible applied themes (AO2) demonstrating knowledge and understanding

(AO1):
• Resource insecurity that could result in forced migration could be related to food – famine; water
– or drought/contamination/disease. For example, Somalis moving to Kenya as a result of
ongoing drought and famine.
• Population growth many be seen as the underlying cause of resource insecurity, especially in
Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Alternatively there are many other causes of forced migration, both political (war/minority
persecution), social (intolerance eg, LGBTQI+/crime/religion), economic (lack of employment
opportunities) and environmental (sea level changes).
• Many of the factors listed above do not work in isolation and have close causal links – many
wars are the result of access to resources eg, Somalia, Sudan.
• Responses may argue that the underlying cause of all significant forced migrations
is climate change, which increases the likelihood of resource insecurity.

Good answers may be well structured (AO4) and may additionally offer a critical
evaluation (AO3) that focuses on the changing role of resource insecurity as a catalyst
of forced migrations over time. Responses may address the spatial aspect of forced
migration and the role of resource insecurity in different parts of the world.

For 5–6 marks

Expect a weakly evidenced outlining of resource insecurity as a cause of forced migration

For 7–8 marks

Expect a well-structured account which includes:
• either a well-evidenced synthesis that links together several themes from the guide and
acknowledges both sides of the argument
• or a critical conclusion (or ongoing evaluation) informed by geographical concepts
and/or perspectives.

For 9–10 marks

Expect both traits.