The Fifth HCT INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TRENDS (ITT 2018), Dubai, UAE, Nov.

, 28 - 29, 2018

Artificial Intelligence: Are We All Going To Be

Unemployed?

Almaz Sandybayev
Business Department
The Higher Colleges of Technology / ADMC
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
[email protected]

Abstract - Against the backdrop of news of achievements in which is created and perfected with only one goal - to simplify
the development of artificial intelligence, there is an increasing and facilitate human life.
feeling that we are on the verge of some great discovery. The
development of artificial intelligence will bring people around the During the past decade, significant advances have taken
world to new opportunities and challenges but it is always place in the field of digital technologies, including artificial
necessary to be prudent, because new technologies are always a intelligence, robotics, cloud technologies, data analysis and
threat. According to analysis by PricewaterhouseCoopers, new mobile communications. In the coming decades, these
technologies will certainly cut jobs, only this will concern a technologies transform almost every branch of human life -
certain segment of the market, and most importantly new ones from agriculture and industry to finance and transport and
will also be created. By 2037, in the UK, robots can drive out radically change the nature of work.
people from 20% of jobs but the consequences of the scientific
and technological revolution will affect the organization of new According to a new study from Redwood Software and
ones. The purpose of this literary analysis is to carefully examine Sapio Research [3], IT executives believe that automation will
the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and to find out will AI affect 60 percent of IT businesses, endangering jobs. 83% of
make people unemployed in the nearest future. respondents agree that that robotic automation will be critical
and essential element to digital transformation of their
Keywords – Artificial Intelligence, AI, profession companies. The report titled "The Future of Jobs" is based on
the results of a survey of 10,000 workers in China, India,
I. INTRODUCTION Germany, England and the United States, whose goal is "to
better understand the future of employment". 37 percent of
Gartner, Inc. is the world's leading research and advisory those who took part believe that AI and robotization
company predicts that by 2020 the technologies of artificial jeopardize their jobs; in 2014 this concern was expressed by
intelligence will be introduced into most software products 33 percent [4]. The report gives an alarming scenario of the
[1]. This statement is not made from scratch. The company's future, in which "typical" activities - ensuring a stable
experts conducted research and came to a justified conclusion advancement up the career ladder - no longer exist which
that in 2025 about 30% of investments will be made in AI in makes it necessary to acquire new knowledge and skills. If the
the digital sphere. According to skeptical opinions, already in report's conclusions are correct, people are ready for change:
2025-2030 a lot of people will lose their jobs because of the 74 percent expressed a desire to "improve or acquire a new
fast development of artificial intelligence. Experts in the field profession in order to remain able-bodied in the future". In
of development of AI believe that in 2030 the world GDP will March 2017, PwC reported that 38 percent of jobs in the US
increase by about 15% due to the introduction of new by the early 2030s run the risk of being hit by automation; in
technologies [2]. Increasing the efficiency of production Germany it is 35 percent, in England - 39 percent, in Japan -
processes will give an increase of 50%. The second half of the 21 percent. As it is seen from the figure below, the most
additional profit comes from the introduction of new significant hit is on UK and USA [5].
technology into modern products. The process of automation
and introduction of digital technologies is a natural step
forward. Remember when the first sewing machines appeared
and many tailors remained unemployed. The same parallel can
now be carried out with the integration of artificial
intelligence,

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Figure 1 – Potential jobs at high risk of automation by country

mostly affect men. The first wave (a wave of algorithms with
50 the simplest basic evictions) has already begun. The second
wave, during which the algorithms will learn the routine work,
40 will make artificial intelligence more functional. This phase is
35
undergoing but the peak of its development will be in the
30 39 2020s. Finally, the third wave (the wave of autonomy) will
21 lead to the emergence of automated systems that
20 independently solve problems [10].
Since women are more likely than men to occupy lower
10 service and office positions, then from the first two waves of
automation the females will suffer most. According to
0
UK US Germany Japan
forecasts, about 23% of females will remain unemployed. The
third wave, expected in the mid-2030s will leave 34% of men
Sources: ONS; PIAAC data; PwC analysis
unemployed and 26% of women will be affected accordingly.

Robotization is only part of the challenges of the future to

which we must prepare today. Obviously, in ten years not only
the labor market but also the ways of obtaining education will
be different. The technological backwardness will have
increasingly disastrous consequences.

II. DEMANDED JOBS AND ALTERNATIVE INCOMES

A. Are we all going to be unemployed?

Microsoft's co-founder Bill Gates said that in order to

survive on the technological labor market, qualification would
be needed in three areas: science, math skills and economics
[6]. It is not necessary to be an expert but it is necessary to
understand what those working in these areas are doing. In the
case of robotics, there will be a great need for those who can
manage automation software. Jeff Hess believes that workers The graph above shows the dynamics of production
should find out what skills will soon be required in their field volume (red line) and number of personnel (blue line) which
[7]. The author recommends the scenario that will require approves the tendency of automatization and robotization
workers and organizations to be ready to adapt: make an within 8-10 years in US. Bloomberg in its study notes that
inventory of dynamic skills, organize inventory, analyze skills robots are starting to cope with an increasing number of
and plan for the future. We cannot discuss the development of human tasks, so in the age of automation, most people are at
robotics and automation without touching upon the issue of risk from their jobs in the service industry [11]. Now
people who are unable or unwilling to learn new skills. 56% of technological progress does not create new jobs but reduces
respondents in the PwC study believe that governments should their number. In the US in 2016, the service sector had three
do everything possible to protect jobs and then people without quarters of cuts in more than 350 sectors of the economy.
Before that, the loss of jobs in production was much higher
technical qualifications continue to work and earn income.
than the decline in employment in all other areas. During the
first four months of 2017, 26.8 thousand people worked in the
Researchers at Oxford University believe that about half of shopping centers of America less than in the same period last
the US jobs, in particular low-paid occupations are at risk [8]. year. At the same time, employment in the coal mining
The least risk is to stay "on the street" having those with industry decreased by only 2.8 thousand people. Among them
academic degrees (engineers, physicists, etc.) and doctors of were employees of shopping centers, consultants of insurance
different categories. According to the forecast of the companies, as well as representatives of low-paid occupations,
McKinsey Global Institute, soon robots will be able to who were most affected by automation. On the one hand, this
perfectly perform about a third of the tasks included in 60% of may mean a reduction in the jobs of some professions, on the
professions [9]. The authors suggest this process in two other hand, only individual tasks can be automated. Thus,
waves, first when computers replace people and second stage automation goes by leaps and bounds, simplifying the tasks set
will be characterized by further development of good artificial for the person. At the same time, this means that in a few,
intelligence. According to PwC analysts, the forecasted future perhaps dozens of years, the presence of a human in
will be based on three waves of automation, the first two of performing certain actions will not be required.
which will make women mostly unemployed and the third will

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Figure 2 – Potential jobs at high risk of automation by UK

account for only eight percent of US programmers, but
industry sector
ordinary "hardcore programmers" - for example, system
administrators. The average salary of a programmer in the
Total UK job
automation US is more than 80 thousand dollars a year, which is much
Wholesale and retail higher than the average American. Therefore, you should
trade 2.25 not be afraid of your workplace for programmers. In
particular, in the US experts expect that the number of jobs
Manufacturing 1.22 22 in this area will grow in the coming years by more than ten
Administrative and support percent.
service 1.09
Programmers, for example, are hunted by the company
Transportation and
storage 0.95
Zalando which is one of the European leaders in the
Professional, scientific and internet trade in footwear and clothing. But in the
technical 0.78 marketing department will cut more than a hundred jobs
Human health and social because instead of people in this department, more work is
work 0.73 done by computer programs with appropriate algorithms.
Accommodation and food Programmers are needed in order to develop algorithms
service 0.59
for analyzing data that are collected automatically. Based
Construction 0.52
on these algorithms, the customer is automatically offered
Public administration and products that may interest.
defense 0.47
Information and
Similar expectations in the industry. The head of Siemens
communication 0.39
Joe Kaeser predicts that by 2030 in the German economy
Financial and will be lost up to half of the created value of products
insurance 0.35 through computerization [13]. According to Kaeser, only
one in ten of the middle class wins from computerization.
Education 0.26 "Nine will be worse, only one will be better."
Digitalization will destroy the middle class, Kaeser
predicted, speaking in
Other 2016 at a conference on digital technologies DLD.
0.83

0 2 4 6 8
Sources: ONS; PIAAC data

B. Will machines replace experienced workers? C. Does the ‘gig economy’ actually increase the exploitation
of workers?
From the Will Robots Take My Job web page, every In the modern world, there is a transition to the gig
Internet user may wonder how high is the probability that the economy (English gig is a multi-valued dialect and slang
tsunami of computerization in the future will leave him or her word, which, among other means “short-term, one-time
without work [12]. For many professions forecasts are work”). In the gig economy, workers are employed in small
disappointing: clerical staff will be replaced by machines with short-term, as a rule several jobs. This can be both an Uber
a probability of 81 percent. For a tourist guide, the theoretical driver's work, as well as performing micro-tasks on
risk sooner or later to remain without work reaches 91 percent. crowdscape platforms like Amazon Mechanical Turk which
But, as example, for a database administrator, the probability include the translation of several text proposals or the
is only 3 percent. The basis for these calculations was the US designation of images. Flexibility, diversity and autonomy are
study of 2013, whose authors predict that 47 percent of the promises of a new gig economy. Workers in the gig
workers in the United States under the threat of losing work in economy mainly work through the Internet which does not
its current form through the progress of computerization. restrict them to the local labor market. "A person in Moscow
Particular importance for the labor market can have powerful no longer depends on local employers but can perform tasks,
computers that can "learn." That is, to acquire new skills in the for example, in the London". However, are workers in the gig
process of obtaining new arrays of information. economy really getting enough for their work? 68% of
The professional term for this is a ‘Deap Learning'. The respondents reported that this flexible work in the post-
forecast considering the likely progress of cars to the industrial economy brings an important part of their household
labor market as a whole looks like this: the more income. Thanks to the Internet and digital platforms many
routine in your work, the more likely that in the future people were able to find employment which it was much
you will be replaced by a robot or a computer. More harder to do before, in particular people with disabilities or
individual work has more chances of survival. The migrants without an official work permit.
American magazine Wired predicts that most of the In the gig economy there is a clear predominance of supply
current workers at the plants in the future will be over demand. This causes many people to reduce the price for
programmers. Of course, not pros from the Silicon their work well beyond what they consider fair. Many of them
Valley, which
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 The Fifth HCT INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TRENDS (ITT 2018), Dubai, UAE, Nov., 28 - 29, 2018

are forced to work intensively and with too strict schedules. III. UAE STRATEGY FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
International Monetary Fund (IMF) assessed the possible
consequences of labor automation for the world economy and A. The UAE Government seeks to be a major hub for
social equality. The conclusions were disappointing: despite
developing AI techniques and legislation. The authorities
the fact that robotization increases labor productivity and leads
confirmed the plans to create an innovative ecosystem that
to GDP growth, in almost all scenarios it also leads to
increased social inequality [14]. will allow to become one of the world leaders in the
development of applications and services based on
According to the IMF report, the replacement of people by artificial intelligence. The Ministry of Economy published
robots can lead to a fall in salaries and, accordingly, to an a report on the economic effect of investment in the
increase in the stratification of society. At the same time, the technology of the fourth generation of the industrial
more robotics will contribute to GDP growth, the less fairly revolution, primarily artificial intelligence. Such
and evenly will distribute income, according to the IMF. There technologies are not limited to price, consumption,
can be such a stratification in two directions, the report states production and productivity. According to the government,
[15]. In the first variant, the difference between capitalists and by 2030 the UAE intends to become a global center of
workers will increase, and in the second, the distance between
artificial intelligence. The report also notes that innovative
qualified and unskilled labor will become greater. The wide
technologies will decrease the government's annual
spread of artificial intelligence will lead to aggravation of the
situation of the poor even if the robots replace a person not in spending by 50 percent by reducing the number of paper
all labor spheres. So, for example, if the work of low-skilled transactions. It also predicts that the strategy of the UAE in
employees is replaced this will affect not only this category of the field of artificial intelligence will lead to an annual
workers but also the so-called "blue collars", whose incomes economic return in many sectors of about 22 billion
may decrease by approximately 26-56%, follows from the dirhams. Over the past three years, the amount of state
report. funding for research into artificial intelligence in the UAE
has grown by 70%. By establishing relevant sectoral funds
D. Who will suffer? and prizes, the government of the Arab Emirates actively
encourages research in the field of artificial intelligence
The growth of uneven distribution of income between the
poor and the rich is a global trend. Since automation actively and robotics. These efforts are mainly directed to the social
contributes to the enrichment of the owners of these same sphere (education, health, social work) and the provision
machines, this will also inevitably lead to even greater of related services. In the future, it is planned to introduce
inequality. The total gross product of mankind will grow these developments in the fields of logistics, transport, the
rapidly and the number of people who actually produce it, on rocket and space industry and urbanistics. In May 2017,
the contrary may decrease. The main blow will be on the the first robot policeman started working in Dubai - with
"intellectual" middle class, that is, people engaged in labor his help, everyone can inform the police about violations
demanding an average qualification - engineers, maintenance and pay fines. In March 2017 it also became known that
personnel, working class. In this case, the need for cooks and technologies based on artificial intelligence will soon be
hairdressers will never disappear. The social consequences of implemented in the work of budget institutions, which will
automation will lead to an unlimited increase in the number of significantly improve the quality and speed of the
people that society need to feed, but cannot employ them. provision of public services.
Psychologically, this will create an extremely uncomfortable
habitat for humanity as a whole. However, it will not be The British University in Dubai has announced plans to
possible to avoid this at least in the medium term. The launch a new faculty - it will prepare bachelors in the field
introduction of automated technologies is a dangerous process of artificial intelligence. This initiative is within the
for various types of operators of machine tools and framework of the development strategy of Dubai until
mechanisms, as well as, for example, accountants as said 2031. The University of Science has developed a program
before. However, as a result, this will not lead to in cooperation with the University of Edinburgh.
unemployment but will only encourage the redistribution of
human potential from areas with a low intellectual component The introduction of innovative technologies in education
to new ones - "intellectually intensive" areas. implies simplification of the learning process through the
use of specialized software and electronic materials
(electronic textbooks and teaching materials, online
platforms, etc.) by teachers and students, as well as
through the development of network infrastructure,
telecommunications and Internet services for correct
introduction of these technologies. The Arab Emirates has
developed a number of initiatives, thanks to which the
country can safely be considered a regional leader in the
creation of innovative educational platforms, materials,
applications and technologies. AI will create more jobs in
2020 than eliminating [16].

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IV. CONCLUSION REFERENCES

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of the same profession have to be retrained, the continuity of
[9] Ibid.
the transfer of knowledge will simply be disrupted. The
[10] Ibid.
development of science will be the lot of a handful of people
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who feel their role. It is not necessary to hope for the Opinion. 2018
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The article tried to analyze, what should we do in the future
where people will not be required for most of professions we
are having now..

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