EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Emerging technologies have never been more and other US government departments. However,
important or difficult to understand. Breakthrough SETR focus technologies are likely to change over
advances seem to be everywhere, from ChatGPT time, not because anyone “got it wrong,” but
to the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines to constellations because science and technology never sleep, the
of cheap commercial shoebox-size satellites that borders between fields are porous, and different
can track events on Earth in near-real time. This is people categorize similar research in different ways.
a pivotal technological moment offering both tre-
mendous promise and unprecedented challenges.
Policymakers need better expert resources to help
them more easily understand the burgeoning and
complex array of technological developments— Report Design
more easily and more continuously.
This report is organized principally by technology,
The Stanford Emerging Technology Review is with each area covered in a standalone chapter that
designed to meet this need, offering an easy-to- gives an overview of the field, highlights key devel-
use reference tool that harnesses the expertise of opments, and offers an over-the-horizon view of
Stanford University’s leading science and engineer- important technological and policy considerations.
ing faculty in ten major technological areas: Although these chapters can be read individually,
one of the most important and unusual hallmarks
of this moment is convergence: emerging technol-
SETR 2023 Focus Technologies ogies are intersecting and interacting in a host of
ways, with important implications for policy. We
Artificial Intelligence examine these broader dynamics in chapters 11 and
Biotechnology and Synthetic Biology 12. In chapter 11, we describe a number of themes
Cryptography and commonalities that cut across many of the tech-
Materials Science nologies we describe earlier in the report. In chap-
Neuroscience ter 12, we consolidate technological developments
Nuclear Technologies across all ten areas and discuss how they apply to
Robotics five policy areas: economic growth, national secu-
Semiconductors rity, environmental and energy sustainability, health
Space and medicine, and civil society.
Sustainable Energy Technologies
Three tensions run throughout and are worth keep-
ing in mind.
These particular fields were chosen for the 2023
report because they leverage areas of deep exper- 1. Timeliness and timelessness Each chapter
tise at Stanford and cover many critical and emerg- seeks to strike a balance between covering recent
ing technologies identified last year by the Office of developments in science and in the headlines and
Science and Technology Policy in the White House providing essential knowledge about how a field

10
works, what is most important, and what challenges perceiving, reasoning, learning, interacting, prob-
lie ahead. lem solving, and even exercising creativity. In the
last year, the main AI-related headline was the rise of
2. Technical depth and breadth This report inten- large language models (LLMs) like GPT-4, on which
tionally skews toward breadth, offering a 30,000-foot the chatbot ChatGPT is based.
view of a vast technological landscape in one com-
pendium. Readers should consider this report as
KEY CHAPTER TAKEAWAYS:
an introductory course. SETR will issue deeper-dive
reports and other educational tools in the months ° AI is a foundational technology that is advancing
ahead that will offer more advanced examinations other scientific fields and, like electricity and the
of each field. internet, has the potential to transform how soci-
ety operates.
3. Technical and nontechnical aspects of inno-
vation We start with the science but do not end ° Even the most advanced AI has many failure
with the science. Technological breakthroughs are modes that are unpredictable, not widely acknowl­
necessary but not sufficient conditions for successful edged, not easily fixed, not explainable, and capa-
innovation. Economic, political, and societal factors ble of leading to unintended consequences.
play enormous and often hidden roles. Johannes
Gutenberg invented the printing press in 1452, but it ° There is substantial debate among AI experts
took more than 150 years before the Dutch invented about whether AI poses a long-term existential
the first successful newspapers—not because they risk to humans, and whether the most important
perfected the mechanics of movable type, but risks are current weaknesses of AI.
because they decided to use less paper, making
newspapers sustainably profitable for the first time.1
Each chapter in this report was written with an eye Biotechnology and Synthetic Biology
toward highlighting important economic, political,
policy, legal, and societal factors likely to impede, Biotechnology is the use of cellular and bio­­molecular
shape, or accelerate progress. processes to develop products or services. Synthetic
biology is a subset of biotechnology that involves
using engineering tools to modify or create biolog-
ical functions—like creating a bacterium that can
glow in the presence of explosives. Synthetic biol-
Technologies and Takeaways ogy is what created the COVID-19 mRNA vaccine

at a Glance in record time—although it relied on decades of

earlier research. Just as rockets enabled humans to
overcome the constraints of gravity to explore the
Artificial Intelligence (AI)
universe, synthetic biology is enabling humans to
AI is a computer’s ability to perform some of the overcome the constraints of lineage to develop new
functions associated with the human brain, including living organisms.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11
 KEY CHAPTER TAKEAWAYS: ° Cryptocurrencies use blockchain technology, but
they are not the same; blockchain has many other
° Biotechnology is burgeoning, contributing around important and promising applications.
5 percent to US GDP with a historical doubling
time of about seven years.
Materials Science
° Synthetic biology is third-generation biotechnol- Materials science studies the structure and proper-
ogy, complementing domestication and breed-
ties of materials—from those visible to the naked
ing (the first generation) and gene editing (the
eye to microscopic features—and how they can be
second generation).
engineered to change performance. Materials sci-
ence contributions have led to better semiconduc-
° The United States is struggling to grasp the scale tors, “smart bandages” with integrated sensors and
of the bio-opportunity, the strategic ramifications
simulators that can accelerate healing, more easily
unique to network-enabled biotechnologies,
recyclable plastics, more energy efficient and flexi-
and the possibilities and perils of distributed
ble solar cells, and stronger aircraft parts.
biomanufacturing.

KEY CHAPTER TAKEAWAYS:

Cryptography
° Materials science is a foundational technology that
The word cryptography originates from Greek words underlies advances in many other fields, including
that mean “secret writing.” In ancient times, cryp- robotics, space, energy, and synthetic biology.
tography involved the use of ciphers and secret
codes. Today, it relies on sophisticated mathemat- ° Materials science will exploit AI as another prom-
ical models to protect data from being altered or ising tool to predict new materials with new prop-
accessed inappropriately. Cryptography is often erties and identify novel uses for known materials.
invisible, but it is essential for most internet activi-
ties, such as messaging, e-commerce, and banking. ° The structure of funding in materials science does
In recent years, a type of cryptographic technology not effectively enable transition from innovation
called blockchain—which records transactions in dis- to implementation. Materials-based technology
tributed ledgers in the computing cloud that cannot that has been thoroughly tested at the bench
be altered retroactively without being detected— scale may be too mature to qualify for basic
has been used for a variety of applications, includ- research funding (because the high-level basic
ing time-stamping and ensuring the provenance science is understood) but not mature enough to
of information, identity management, supply chain be directly commercialized by companies.
management, and cryptocurrencies.

Neuroscience
KEY CHAPTER TAKEAWAYS:
Neuroscience is the study of the human brain and
° Cryptography is essential for protecting informa- the nervous system—its structure, function, healthy
tion but will never be enough to secure cyberspace. and diseased states, and life cycle from embryonic
development to degeneration in later years. The
° Cryptocurrencies have received a great deal brain is perhaps the least understood and yet most
of media attention, but they are not the most important organ in the human body. Three major
important issue in cryptography today. research subfields of neuroscience are neuroengi-

12 STANFORD EMERGING TECHNOLOGY REVIEW

neering (e.g., brain-machine interfaces), neurohealth ° Nuclear fusion recently achieved an important
(e.g., brain degeneration and aging), and neurodis- milestone by demonstrating energy gain in the
covery (e.g., the science of addiction). laboratory for the first time. However, further
research breakthroughs must be achieved in the
coming decades before fusion can be technically
KEY CHAPTER TAKEAWAYS:
viable as an energy alternative.
° Popular interest in neuroscience vastly exceeds
the actual current scientific understanding of ° Many believe that small modular reactors (SMRs)
the brain, giving rise to overhyped claims in the are the most promising way to proceed with
public domain that revolutionary advances are nuclear power, but some nuclear experts have
just around the corner. noted that SMRs do not solve the radioactive
waste disposal problem.
° Advances in computing have led to progress in
several areas, including understanding and treat-
ing addiction and neurodegenerative diseases, Robotics
and designing brain-machine interfaces.
Robotics is an integrative field that draws on advances
in multiple technologies rather than a single dis-
° American leadership is essential for establishing cipline. “What is a robot?” is a harder question to
and upholding global norms about ethics and
answer than it appears. At a minimum, the emerg-
human subjects research in neuroscience.
ing consensus among researchers is that a robot is a
physical entity that has ways of sensing itself and the
Nuclear Technologies world around it and can create physical effects on
that world. Robots are already used across a range of
Nuclear technologies involve producing energy with
sectors in a variety of ways—including assembly line
potential applications for electricity generation, med-
manufacturing, space exploration, autonomous vehi-
icine, and weapons. There are two major nuclear pro-
cles, tele-operated surgery, military reconnaissance,
cesses: (1) fission, which is the process of splitting the
and disaster assistance.
nucleus of a particular type of element; and (2) fusion,
which produces energy by causing two atoms to col-
lide and fuse together. Nuclear power plants have KEY CHAPTER TAKEAWAYS:
used controlled fission chain reactions for decades. In
the past year, however, Lawrence Livermore National ° Although robots today are mostly used for the
Three Ds (dull, dirty, or dangerous tasks), in the
Laboratory achieved a milestone breakthrough, rais-
future they could be used for almost any task
ing hopes that fusion might someday be controlled
involving physical presence, because of recent
to drive electrical generators without the long-lasting
advances in AI, decreasing costs of mobile com-
radioactive waste that fission produces.
ponent technologies (e.g., cameras in smart-
phones), and designs enabled by new materials
KEY CHAPTER TAKEAWAYS: and structures.

° Nuclear fission offers a promising carbon-free

power source that is already in use but faces safety ° Robotics has and will transform many industries
through elimination, modification, or creation of
and proliferation concerns, economic obstacles,
jobs and functions.
and significant policy challenges to address long-
term radioactive waste disposal.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 13
 ° Understanding and communicating how robots hardware and software as well as the innovation
will affect people’s lives directly in their physical that depends on it.
spaces (e.g., security robots in malls) as well as
more existentially (e.g., transitioning jobs like KEY CHAPTER TAKEAWAYS:
truck driving from human-driven to autonomous
vehicles) will shape how the United States accepts ° Moore’s law, which for fifty years has predicted
and benefits from robotic technologies. rapid increases in semiconductor capabilities at
decreasing costs, is now ending, raising profound
implications for the future of hardware and soft-
Semiconductors ware development.
Semiconductors, or chips, are crucial and ubiqui-
tous components used in everything from refrigera- ° Recent research has identified methods that allow
tors and toys to smartphones, cars, computers, and innovations in materials, devices, fabrication, and
fighter jets. Chip production involves two distinct hardware to be added to existing process or sys-
steps: (1) design, which requires talented engineers tems at low incremental cost. These methods
to design complex integrated circuits involving mil- need to be further developed since they will be
lions of components; and (2) fabrication, which is essential to continue to improve the computing
the task of actually manufacturing chips in large, infrastructure we all depend on.
specially designed factories called “fabs.” Because
fabs involve highly specialized equipment and ° Quantum computing may solve certain special-
facilities—the “clean rooms” in which chips are ized problems, but experts debate whether it can
made require air that is one thousand times more ever achieve the rapid, consistent, predictable
particle-free than a hospital operating room—they performance growth that semiconductors have
are extremely expensive to build and require exper- enjoyed.
tise to operate. US companies still play a leading role
in semiconductor design, but US semiconductor-
manufacturing capacity has plummeted and now Space
lags dangerously behind Taiwan Semiconductor Space technologies include any technology devel-
Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and Korea’s Sam- oped to conduct or support activities approximately
sung. The Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce sixty miles or more beyond Earth’s atmosphere. A
Semiconductors and Science Act of 2022 (CHIPS single space mission is a “system of systems”—
Act of 2022) was intended to help the US semicon- including everything from the spacecraft itself to
ductor industry regain a foothold in fabrication, but propulsion, data storage and processing, electrical
progress is expected to take years, if not decades. power generation and distribution, thermal control
Because of the cost and complexity involved, suc- to ensure that components are within their opera-
cess remains uncertain. At the same time, we are tional and survival limits, and ground stations. While
reaching the limits of exponential technical and in the past space was the exclusive province of gov-
cost improvements in the chip fabrication pro- ernment spy satellites and discovery missions, the
cess, known as Moore’s law. Until now, systems number and capabilities of commercial satellites
and software have been designed with the expec- have increased dramatically in recent years. Today,
tation that semiconductor capabilities would dra- more than eight thousand working satellites circle
matically increase and costs would decrease over the planet, many no larger than a loaf of bread.
time. That is unlikely to be the case in the future, Some operate in constellations that can revisit the
with profound implications for the development of same location multiple times a day and offer image

14 STANFORD EMERGING TECHNOLOGY REVIEW

resolutions so sharp they can identify different car
models driving on a road.
Important Crosscutting
KEY CHAPTER TAKEAWAYS: Themes
° Space technologies are increasingly critical to
everyday life (e.g., GPS navigation, banking, mis- Chapter 11 discusses twelve themes that cut across
sile defense, internet access, and remote sensing). the technological areas. These are:

° Space is a finite planetary resource. Dramatic 1. Different risks arise from moving too fast and
increases in satellites, debris, and competition moving too slowly. Innovation that emerges too
are threatening access to this global commons. fast threatens to disrupt the status quo around which
many national, organizational, and personal interests
° Private-sector actors play a critical and growing have coalesced. It is also more likely to lead to unin-
role in many aspects of space-based activities tended consequences and give short shrift to security,
(e.g., launch, vehicles, and communications), safety, ethics, and geopolitics. Innovation that moves
because they offer better, cheaper, and rapidly too slowly increases the likelihood that a nation will
deployable capabilities. lose the technical, economic, and national security
advantages that often accrue to first movers in a field.

Sustainable Energy Technologies

2. Ideas and human talent play a central role in
This vital strategic resource for nations generally scientific discovery and cannot be manufactured
involves generation, transmission, and storage. at will. They must be either domestically nurtured or
In recent years it has also come to include carbon imported from abroad. Today, both paths for gener-
capture and carbon’s removal from the atmosphere. ating ideas and human talent face serious and rising
Energy mix and innovation are key to efforts to challenges.
address climate change.

3. The US government is no longer the primary

KEY CHAPTER TAKEAWAYS: driver of technological innovation or funder of
research and development. Historically, techno-
° The most significant challenge to achieving sus-
tainable energy is scale. Countries will need to logical advances (e.g., semiconductors, the internet,
source, manufacture, and deploy massive gen- jet engines) were funded and advocated by the US
eration, transmission, and storage capabilities to government. Today, private sector R&D investment
meet global energy needs. is playing a much larger role, raising important con-
cerns about how to ensure that the national interest
is well considered and that basic science—which
° Because global energy needs are vast, no single
technology or breakthrough will be enough. is an important foundation for future innovation—
remains strong.

° Over-the-horizon challenges include decentral-

izing and modernizing the country’s electricity 4. There is a trend toward increasing access to
grids and achieving greater national consensus new technologies worldwide. Even innovations
about energy goals to enable strategic and effec- that are US born are unlikely to remain in the exclu-
tive R&D programs and funding. sive control of American actors for long periods.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 15
 5. The synergies between different technologies if ever. That high-risk focus has yielded high-benefit
are large and growing. Advances in one technol- payoffs in a wide range of fields.
ogy often support advances in other technologies.
11. Sustaining American innovation requires long-
6. The path from research to application is often term government R&D. Investments with clear
not linear. Many believe that technological break- strategies and sustained priorities are crucial, not the
throughs arise from a step-by-step linear progression increasingly common wild swings from year to year.
where basic research leads to applied research, which
then leads to development and prototyping and 12. Cybersecurity is an enduring concern for
finally to a marketable product. Yet innovation often every aspect of emerging technology research.
does not work this way. Many scientific develop- State and nonstate actors will continue to threaten
ments enhance understanding but never advance to the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of
the marketplace. Many marketable products emerge information that is crucial for emerging technology
in nonlinear fashion, after many rounds of feedback research and development.
between phases. Other products emerge only when
several different technologies acquire maturity. Finally, each of the ten technology fields covered
in this report bears on five policy areas that are of
7. Technological innovation occurs in both democ- interest to policymakers: economic growth, national
racies and autocracies, but different regime security, environmental and energy sustainability,
types enjoy different advantages and challenges. health and medicine, and civil society. Chapter 12
Democracies provide greater freedom for explora- identifies applications and consequences of each
tion, while authoritarian regimes can direct sustained field as they apply to these policy areas.
funding and focus on the technologies they believe
are most important.

NOTES
8. The speed of change is hard even for leading
researchers to anticipate. Technology often pro-
1. Andrew Pettegree and Arthur der Weduwen, The Bookshop of
gresses in fits and starts, with long periods of incre- the World: Making and Trading Books in the Dutch Golden Age
mental results followed by sudden breakthroughs. (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2019), 70–72.

9. Nontechnical factors often determine whether

new technologies succeed or fail. Adoption of new
technologies hinges on economic viability and soci-
etal acceptability, not just scientific proof-of-concept
and engineering feasibility.

10. US universities play a pivotal role in the innova-

tion ecosystem that is increasingly at risk. Although
the US government frequently talks about the impor-
tance of public-private partnerships in emerging
technology, universities also play a pivotal and often
underappreciated role. They are the only organiza-
tions with the mission of pursuing high-risk research
that may not pay off commercially for a long time,

16 STANFORD EMERGING TECHNOLOGY REVIEW