Food systems

and diets:
Facing the challenges
of the 21st century

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
September 2016

Food systems and diets: Facing the challenges of the 21st century 1
Food systems
and diets:
Facing the challenges
of the 21st century

This report includes important recommendations and advice for leaders at the most senior levels
in countries and international organizations. It is also of direct relevance to all policy makers,
decision makers, professionals, business people, experts and researchers with interests in food
systems and diets. Many of these individuals will be directly concerned with the production,
processing, trade, regulation, supply and safety of food. However, others may work in wider
areas of policy and business, for example relating to: public health and well-being, mental health
development, education, economic development, urbanization, globalization and demography.

Copyright © 2016 by the Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition.

RECOMMENDED CITATION: Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition. 2016. Food systems and diets:
Facing the challenges of the 21st century. London, UK.

This report may be freely reproduced, in whole or in part, provided the original source is acknowledged. This publication is
a product of the Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition and was authored by the Foresight Project’s
Lead Expert Group, supported by the Panel Secretariat. The full report was peer reviewed. The findings, interpretations,
conclusions, advice and recommendations expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the organisations or
the governments the Global Panel members represent.

ISBN: 978-0-9956228-1-4
Global Panel members:

John Kufuor, (Co-Chair) Sir John Beddington, Akinwumi Adesina, Tom Arnold, Director
Former President of Ghana (Co-Chair) President, African General, Institute of
Former UK Government Development Bank (AfDB) International and
Chief Scientific Adviser European Affairs (IIEA)

José Graziano da Silva, Agnes Kalibata, Rachel Kyte, Special Maurício Antônio
Director General, Food and President, Alliance Representative of the Lopes, President, Brazilian
Agriculture Organization of for a Green Revolution UN Secretary General for Agricultural Research
the United Nations (FAO) in Africa (AGRA) Sustainable Energy; and Corporation (Embrapa)
CEO of Sustainable Energy
for All (SE4All)

Rhoda Peace Tumusiime, Srinath Reddy, President, Emmy Simmons, Board

Commissioner for Rural Public Health Foundation Member, Partnership to
Economy and Agriculture, of India Cut Hunger and Poverty
African Union Commission in Africa/AGree

3
 Preface

The Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition commissioned this Foresight report in 2015 to
take a close look at the extent to which food systems are delivering healthy diets today and to assess whether they
are fit for the future.

While the focus has been on low- and middle-income countries, the findings constitute a stark warning for all
countries. Despite past progress, approximately 3 billion people across the globe now have low-quality diets. Nearly
a quarter of all children under five years of age are stunted, more than 2 billion people have insufficient micronutrients
and the incidence of overweight and obesity is growing in every region. As a result, many economies are seriously
underperforming, and diet-related chronic diseases are placing ever-greater demands on health care systems.
Moreover, the situation is set to worsen dramatically over the next 20 years as powerful drivers of change such as
population growth, climate change and urbanization converge on food systems.

This report shows that unless policy makers act decisively to control overweight, obesity and diet-related disease
and accelerate efforts to reduce undernutrition, all countries will pay a heavy price in terms of mortality, physical
health, mental well-being, economic losses and degradation of the environment. The stark message to world
leaders is that only a response on the scale and commitment used to tackle HIV/AIDS and malaria will be sufficient
to meet the challenge, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. It is also essential that the public and
private sectors work together to achieve this.

This report shows how these considerable challenges can be addressed. In particular, food systems need
to be harnessed so that they nourish rather than merely feed people. This alone will open up countless opportunities
for interventions that decision makers can tailor to specific situations. The report also sets out clear priorities for
action at national and international levels, as well as detailed advice and guidance, which will be of practical and
immediate use to decision makers.

On behalf of the Global Panel, we would like to take this opportunity to express our sincere thanks to the
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the UK Department for International Development who together have
funded this groundbreaking study. We would also like to thank the group of leading experts, chaired by Professor
Lawrence Haddad, who undertook much of the work and drafted this report, the many other experts and policy
makers from across the world who contributed, and the team at the Global Panel Secretariat who managed the
entire process.

John Kufuor Sir John Beddington

(Co-Chair) (Co-Chair)
Former President of Ghana Former UK Government
Chief Scientific Adviser

4
Foreword

Malnutrition has for too long been a neglected issue. Yet it is a problem that affects one in three people worldwide.
Today, 159 million children are stunted, 50 million are wasted and more than 2 billion people are overweight or
obese. But in 2015 for the first time in history, through the Global Goals, the world has committed to ending
malnutrition in all its forms. As the 2016 Global Nutrition Report makes clear, tackling malnutrition is one of the
largest challenges facing all countries. Malnutrition comes in many guises: stunting, wasting, deficiencies of
essential vitamins and minerals, and obesity. Reaching the ambitious target of ending malnutrition is only
achievable if world leaders can ensure agriculture and food systems policies strengthen nutrition outcomes.

There is a moral imperative to eliminate malnutrition. Undernutrition contributes to 45% of the 16,000 children
under the age of five who die every day. The impacts extend well beyond health: stunted children who survive are
permanently disadvantaged, perform worse at school and are robbed of future earnings that could support them
and their families. But eliminating malnutrition is also an economic imperative. The costs of undernutrition in
terms of lost national productivity are significant, with between 3% and 16% of GDP lost annually in Africa and
Asia. The good news is that we know that the economic returns from investing in nutrition are high – GBP 16
generated for every pound invested. Boosting nutrition can boost growth.

This Foresight report from the Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition on the future of diets
provides fresh insights into changes in diets across the world. It highlights the impact of major drivers of change
in dietary patterns, including population growth, rising incomes, urbanization and globalization. The report
complements the 2016 Global Nutrition Report in delivering strong evidence to underpin policy change. The
data presented here focus on the challenges that decision makers face when attempting to integrate nutrition
within current food systems and agricultural policies. It sets out ways to approach these challenges so that policies
are shaped in a way that delivers healthy, safe and nutritious diets for all.

The Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition was first launched by the former UK Secretary of
State for International Development at the 2013 Nutrition for Growth Summit. It has proven invaluable for
championing the role of agriculture and food systems in preventing malnutrition. The Panel and its work –
including this report – are an important contribution to the UK Government’s commitment to improve the
nutrition of 50 million people by 2020.

Ridding the world of malnutrition will require sustained investment, drive and energy. It will also require innovative
solutions that work to tackle both undernutrition and the rising burden of obesity afflicting almost all countries
around the world. I urge nutrition and agriculture leaders in governments, business and civil society to act on the
Foresight report findings.

James Wharton MP
Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State
Department for International Development

5
Executive summary

Credit: John Ferguson, Oxfam

The world is facing a nutrition crisis: approximately three Food systems need to be repositioned
billion people from every one of the world’s 193 countries have
low-quality diets. Over the next 20 years, multiple forms of from just supplying food to providing
malnutrition will pose increasingly serious threats to global
health. Population growth combined with climate change will high-quality diets for all
place increasing stress on food systems, particularly in Africa
and Asia where there will be an additional two billion people actions. Much more emphasis must be given to positioning
by 2050. At the same time, rapidly increasing urbanization, agricultural growth as a way to improve diet quality, rather
particularly in these two regions, will affect hunger and than merely delivering sufficient calories. Food systems need
nutrition in complex ways – both positively and negatively. to be repositioned from just supplying food to providing
high-quality diets for all. This will require policy initiatives
Unless policy makers apply the brakes on overweight, far beyond agriculture to encompass trade, the environment,
obesity and related disease and accelerate efforts to and health, which harness the power of the private sector
reduce undernutrition, everyone will pay a heavy price: death, and empower consumers to demand better diets.
disease, economic losses and degradation of the environment.
A response, equivalent to that marshalled to tackle HIV/AIDS, This report is a call to action for world leaders and their
malaria and smoking is needed to meet these challenges. governments. Leadership and commitment will be essential
in driving forward the decisions set out in this report and
Around the world, coordinated action needs to be accompanied in delivering the necessary priority actions to reshape the
by fundamental shifts in our understanding and in our policy global food system.

6 Executive summary
1. Key findings

1.1 A growing nutritional crisis • More than 2 billion people lack vital micronutrients (e.g., iron,
zinc, vitamin A) which affects their health and life expectancy.
The world has made substantial progress in reducing hunger For example, in low- and middle-income countries, over half
and undernutrition in the past 25 years. Global rates of hunger of the young women and adolescent girls surveyed are not
have fallen and now affect around one in ten people1 and the meeting their micronutrient needs. By 2050, the estimated
percentage of children who are chronically undernourished impact of elevated carbon dioxide on the zinc content of grains,
has declined to around one in four.2 Such progress means less tubers and legumes, could place 138 million people at new risk
suffering, lower mortality rates and improved life chances for of zinc deficiency – with 48 million in India alone.
hundreds of millions of families and their children.
The proportion of the world that is
However, despite these gains, malnutrition in all its forms
currently affects one in three people worldwide, far beyond suffering from diet-related malnutrition
the 795 million who experience hunger on a daily basis. And
the situation is rapidly getting worse. Over the next 20 years,
is increasing. It now stands at just over
multiple forms of malnutrition will pose increasingly serious
challenges to policy makers:
1 in 3. This ratio will move towards
1 in 2, if current trends continue
• Today, the prevalence rates of overweight, obesity and
diet-related chronic diseases such as diabetes and hypertension Looking to the future, if the direction of current policies remains the
are increasing in every region and most rapidly in low- and same, (i.e. business as usual) then estimates suggest that by 2030,
middle-income countries. In sub-Saharan African men, the the number of overweight and obese people will have increased
growth rate of overweight and obesity now exceeds that from 1.33 billion in 2005 to 3.28 billion, around one third of the
for underweight. For South Asian women, the prevalence of projected global population. This is a major concern as no country
overweight and obesity is almost the same as the prevalence to date has successfully reversed growth in obesity once it has been
of underweight. In China, the combined rate of overweight allowed to develop. At the same time, there will still be 653 million
and obese adults is projected to rise to over 50% by 2030. calorie-deficient people (down from 795 million in 2015). Most of the
reductions in calorie insufficiency will come from Asia, while Africa
• Nearly a quarter of all children aged under five years will see a levelling off. But if nothing is done, Asia and Africa will still
of age today are stunted, with diminished physical and be grappling with significant levels of undernutrition in 14 years’ time.
mental capacities. Less than a third of all young infants
in 60 low- and middle-income countries are meeting the Together, these facts offer up a formidable warning to policy
minimum dietary diversity standards needed for growth. makers. Immediate and decisive action is needed to address the
And undernourished mothers are having babies who will challenges that they pose to avert the profound consequences for
be left with life-long impairments. the health of populations, health care costs and economic growth.

Food and Agriculture Organization of The United Nations (FAO), International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) & World Food Programme (WFP). 2015.
1

Achieving zero hunger: The critical role of investments in social protection and agriculture. Rome. FAO. 2International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 2016.
Global Nutrition report 2016: From promise to impact: Ending malnutrition by 2030. Washington, DC: IFPRI.

Food systems and diets: Facing the challenges of the 21st century 7
 FIGURE 1: Six of the top 11 risk factors driving the global burden of disease are related to diet
■ Disease risk factors linked to diet ■ Disease risk factors not linked to diet
Dietary risks
High systolic blood pressure
Child and maternal malnutrition
Tobacco smoke
Air pollution
High body mass index
Alcohol and drug use
High fasting plasma glucose
Unsafe water, sanitation and handwashing
Unsafe sex
High total cholesterol
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000
Global all-age disability-adjusted life years (in thousands, 2013)
Source: Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 Collaborators (2015), Figure 5
Note: The graph shows global disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to level 2 risk factors in 2013 for both sexes combined.

1.2 Malnutrition represents the number one The risk that poor diets pose to
risk factor in the global burden of disease
mortality and morbidity is now greater
The impacts of malnutrition are huge. An estimated 45%
of deaths under age five are linked to undernutrition and than the combined risks of unsafe sex,
suboptimal breastfeeding alone is responsible for almost 12%
of total deaths3, mostly in low-income countries. Malnutrition alcohol, drug and tobacco use
has many causes and a low-quality diet is one of them.
Over recent decades, agricultural productivity has risen,
Malnutrition associated with diets that are not nutritious or food trade has increased and the once ever-present threat
safe represents the number one risk factor in the global burden of famine has receded in most parts of the world. This means
of disease. These low-quality diets contain insufficient calories, many people have better diets than before. But the rate of
vitamins and minerals or contain too many calories, saturated increase of intake of foods that undermine diet quality has
fats, salt and sugar. The risk that poor diets pose to mortality been increasing even faster. For example, in 2000, sales of
and morbidity is now greater than the combined risks of unsafe ultra-processed foods and beverages in the upper-middle-
sex, alcohol, drug and tobacco use (see Fig.1). income countries were one-third of those in the high-income
countries. Fifteen years later, they were more than half. So
Poor nutrition amplifies the health consequences of diseases such while there have been dietary improvements, the net result
as HIV/AIDS, malaria and measles. In economic terms, across Africa is still low-quality diets.
and Asia, the estimated impact of undernutrition on gross domestic
product (GDP) is 11% every year — more than the annual economic As this report shows, rising incomes alone will not improve
downturn caused by the global financial crisis of 2008–10. the quality of people’s diets. As incomes increase, food scarcity
diminishes but the cost of many nutritious foods remains high
and the ability to purchase foods that do not support high-
1.3 Food systems are not delivering quality diets increases. Currently, income growth is a double-
healthy diets edged sword when it comes to improving diets.

Today’s food systems are too focused on food quantity and not
enough on quality. They are not helping consumers to make 1.4 The importance of a food system approach
healthy and affordable food choices consistent with optimal
nutrition outcomes. In fact, the trend is in the opposite direction. Policy makers need to ensure that all parts of food systems work
The multiple forms of malnutrition will not diminish unless together to deliver high-quality diets (see Box 1). This means
policy makers and private sector business leaders work together thinking well beyond agriculture to also consider the many
to reshape food systems in ways that will advance the goal of processes and activities involved in food production, processing,
healthier diets for all. storage, transportation, trade, transformation and retailing.
3
Black, R.E., Victora, C.G., Walker, S. P., Bhutta, Z.A., Christian, P., De Onis, M., Ezzati, M., Grantham-Mcgregor, S., Katz, J., Martorell, R. & Uauy, R. 2013. Maternal and child
undernutrition and overweight in low-income and middle-income countries. The Lancet, 382, 427-51.

8 Executive summary
In the longer term, food systems (see Box 2). Population growth, climate change and increased
competition for natural resources are notable examples. But
will be subject to major stresses... others such as income growth, urbanization and globalization
of diets are likely to have mixed effects – with both positive and
Population growth, climate change negative consequences for diets. It is essential that policy makers
think through the consequences of all of these drivers of change
and increased competition for natural for their own food systems.
resources are notable examples The good news is that there are many ways in which policy
makers can reshape food systems. Extending policy action
This amounts to a change in mindset and a fundamental shift beyond agriculture to the entire food system opens up many
in approach. Whatever progress is made towards food security, opportunities to improve the consumer’s ability to access food
unless foods reach people in a form that is nutritious and that is safe, nutritious and affordable. The full Foresight report
affordable, the problem of poor quality diets will not be solved. provides detailed guidance on the many options available to
policy makers to allow them to act now on their own food
Food systems are changing rapidly with important consequences systems, to help address diet quality-driven malnutrition
for changing diets. The food chains that supply consumers are crises in their countries.
growing longer, with global trade increasing the distance between
production and consumption, as well as the diversity of foods
available to consumers. Value and power in food systems is Box 1: What is a high-quality diet?
shifting towards the middle of these food chains, with agricultural
produce becoming ingredients for processed products. Decisions While there is no universal ‘diet quality index’, there is
by large agri-businesses, manufacturers and retailers are playing general agreement on what a healthy or high-quality
a growing role, relative to the public sector, in the availability, diet should include, i.e. a diversity of foods that are safe
affordability, safety and desirability of foods. Policy makers need and provide levels of energy appropriate to age, sex,
to ensure that food system changes like these contribute to, and disease status and physical activity as well as essential
do not detract from, high-quality diets. micronutrients. The World Health Organization’s (WHO)
definition of a healthy diet emphasizes the importance of
The bottom line is that food systems are failing us. Those who starting healthy eating habits in early life (notably through
would benefit from consuming more animal source foods, fruits, breastfeeding) and limiting the intake of free sugars and
vegetables and pulses often find them unaffordable. Others who salt. It advises people to eat plenty of fruits and vegetables,
need to reduce their consumption of red meat may be unable to wholegrains, fibre, nuts and seeds, while limiting free
switch to other sources of flesh-based food such as fish. sugars, sugary snacks and beverages, processed meats
and salt, and replacing saturated and industrial trans fats
In the longer term, food systems will be subject to major with unsaturated fats.
stresses resulting from important external influences

Food systems and diets: Facing the challenges of the 21st century 9
Box 2: Long-term drivers of the nutrition crisis

Food system policies must be developed which are resilient safety risks, they have potentially good access to fresh produce
to future long-term threats and uncertainties – examples and micronutrient fortified products. The challenge is to find
of these are listed below. Action is needed now since some ways of strengthening the positive links between urbanization
policies and initiatives may take many years or decades and diet quality while maintaining its ability to help reduce
to take full effect, e.g. restructuring food systems, investing hunger and undernutrition
in infrastructure and influencing consumer attitudes.
Income growth
Changes in the size and age distribution of populations Countries cannot expect to ‘grow’ their way out of poor diet
Population growth rates are decelerating as declining birth quality and address the multiple forms of malnutrition. While
rates catch up with declining mortality rates. But global food income growth among low-income consumers will help to
systems will need to provide high-quality diets to more than reduce undernutrition, it will also create substantial new
2 billion additional people by 2050. Over a billion will be in problems relating to overweight and obesity and associated
Africa. A particular effort is needed to improve diets of infants non-communicable diseases (NCDs).
and young children to support their cognitive development
and to enable them to capitalize on work opportunities. Globalization of diets
This will also require a focus on improving the nutrition Diets, even in the poorest countries, are increasingly affected
of adolescent girls and women of child-bearing age. by the growing global nature of food trade and trade-related
industries. Globalization can act to increase resilience by
Climate change allowing deficits in one region to be met by others but it
By 2050, there could be over half a million net additional can also decrease resilience by propagating systemic shocks.
deaths from diet-related causes compared to a scenario But globalization may also have helped to drive the obesity
with no climate change – most would occur in low- and epidemic by making it easier for consumers to make low-
middle-income countries. Both direct and indirect effects quality diet choices.
(e.g. due to a rise in energy costs) need to be considered
when developing climate smart policies. Competition for natural resources
This will increasingly constrain food production, but could also
Rapid urbanization stimulate technical progress. Overall, it could drive diets in
Urban populations are growing most rapidly in Africa and unpredictable and highly context-specific ways. The growing
Asia. Urban dwelling is associated with less undernutrition consensus on the need to price scarce resources, such as water
than rural populations but more diet-related obesity and and carbon storage should provide strong incentives both
chronic disease and greater risks from food price volatility. to increase efficiency of resource use and generate technical
While the urban poor experience low-quality diets and food improvements.
2. A call to action

2.1 Nutrition – a new global priority system, conserving limited water supplies and promoting long-
term management of soils, forests and biodiversity. In particular,
Agriculture and food systems must deliver much more than food careful consideration needs to be given to the relationships
– they need to fulfil their potential to underpin the health and between diets that are high quality from a nutritional perspective
well-being of populations. At a fundamental level, consumers are and their potential impacts on the environment. These are
making food choices that are not consistent with good nutrition, more complex than popularly assumed and are likely to differ
health and well-being. And public policies or private sector considerably in different contexts.
actions are not adequately aligning food systems toward the
goal of improving nutrition. Effective evidence-based policy making should be supported
by the use of appropriate analytical tools. The following figure
However, the long path that high-income countries have taken sets out six sequential steps that policy makers need to work
to try and manage rising obesity rates has not succeeded. That through. The full report provides detailed guidance for each step,
same path is not an inevitable one for low- and middle-income together with advice concerning promising policy actions to improve
countries. There are alternatives, provided the right choices are diets. These relate to the various parts of the food system, from
made now and throughout the food system. The challenge for production to storage, transport, trade, transformation and retailing.
policy makers in low- and middle-income countries is to find more
direct and less damaging dietary pathways from where their diets
are today, to where they need and want to be. South Korea is a FIGURE 2: Six steps to identify policy actions
good example of a country that has gone from low- to middle- to to achieve healthy diets
high-income levels in the past 30 years in a way that has supported
the supply of relatively accessible and affordable high-quality diets.
It is no coincidence that this country has implemented many food STEP ONE: Set a clear diet quality objective
system policies that aim to promote health. What is/are the diet quality gap/s that need
to be addressed and who does it affect?
At a global level, stakeholders need to prioritize the
improvement of nutrition – and the consumption of
the healthy diets that promote it. While the Sustainable STEP TWO: Engage with communities to exlore
Development Goals have put ending hunger, achieving food perceptions of causes of the diet gap
security and improving nutrition, and promoting sustainable What might be responsible for the diet gap from the
agriculture, high on the global agenda, the 2016–2025 UN perspective of the consumer? Availability? Affordability?
Appeal? Or factors outside the food system?
Decade of Action for Nutrition provides many potential
opportunities to place the improvement of diet quality
through food systems at the centre of global action.
STEP THREE: Review the role of food systems
The international community needs to step up and accord If and what elements of food systems are responsible
the goal of healthy diets to all and extend the same level for the diet gaps from the local to the global level?
of focus and commitment that it gave to addressing HIV/
AIDS, malaria and smoking. This will require stakeholders from
governments, civil society, the media, business and research to STEP FOUR: Identify actions for food systems solutions
work together to make improving dietary quality a sustained What are available options in the food system
political priority. for addressing the diet gaps?

At the national level, governments and private sector actors

need to work together to focus on aligning individual food STEP FIVE: Align actions to create coherence
systems with the goal of attaining healthy diets and improved What further actions are needed to align
nutritional outcomes. This will require, amongst other actions, these options across the food system?
creating incentives for private sector actors throughout the food
system so that they can make decisions more favourable to the
adoption of higher quality diets. STEP SIX: Leverage actions for sustainability
How can these actions also be leveraged to
It will be critical for governments to look across both food improve food systems sustainability?
system objectives and broader goals and constraints including
the need to build sustainability into the country’s agricultural

Food systems and diets: Facing the challenges of the 21st century 11
2.2 Specific priorities for action
Policy makers and other key decision makers need to work Failure to take decisive actions now
throughout the food system to effect diet change. The full
report provides guidance together with advice on promising
will lead to very serious health and
evidence-based policy actions to improve diets. economic impacts for all in society,
While most actions will depend heavily on local contexts, the but especially for women, infants
following are universally applicable:
and young children. These impacts will
1 Focus food and agriculture policies on securing diet
quality for infants and young children. These are woefully
reverberate throughout the life cycle
inadequate in many countries. Improved policy choices are and across generations
needed which recognize the centrality of high-quality diets
for the youngest.
7 Improve accountability at all levels. Governments
2 Improve adolescent girl and adult women’s diet quality committed to reshaping food systems toward healthy diets
as a priority in all policy making that shapes food need to set targets and publish transparent scorecards of
systems. Women are particularly vulnerable to the health their results. Private sector actors should acknowledge their
impacts of low-quality diets because of their higher nutrition far-reaching roles in defining food environments – and the
requirements and because of their disempowerment in some nutritional quality of foods and other products that they
cultures. promote to consumers. Civil society organizations need to
monitor the performance of others.
3 Ensure that food-based dietary guidelines (FBDGs) guide
policy decisions to reshape food systems. FBDGs are largely 8 Break down barriers associated with the longstanding
absent in low-income countries (present only in 2 out of 31) division of jurisdictional responsibilities within many
and limited in lower middle-income countries (12 out of 51). governments – between agriculture, health, social
They are needed to inform and to influence food policies protection and commerce. These can fundamentally
around the world. impede integrated action across food systems, inhibit the
effective allocation of resources and create barriers that
4 Animal source foods (e.g. dairy, eggs, fish and meat) inhibit access to data.
provide important nutrients. Policy support for these
foods should be pragmatically evidence-based rather 9 Institutionalize high-quality diets through public sector
than driven by ideology. Infants, children, adolescents and purchasing power. Food provided in schools, hospitals,
women of reproductive age living in low-income contexts across the armed forces and in the prison system should
will find it extremely hard to meet nutrient requirements in be of the highest dietary benefit to the diet, consumer. This
the absence of these foods. At the same time, some groups in approach has the potential to shape the norms around foods
low-income contexts are consuming levels of these foods in that contribute to high-quality diets and incentivize suppliers
excess of recommended levels. and contractors to align their value chains accordingly.

5 Make fruits, vegetables, pulses, nuts and seeds much more 10 Refocus agriculture research investments globally to
available, more affordable and safe for all consumers. support healthy diets and good nutrition (see Box 3).
They offer considerable benefits in terms of diet quality. There Global and national public research organizations (and their
are opportunities throughout the food system to overcome funders) must rebalance their priorities to reflect a priority
supply-side barriers to make them available, affordable focus on high-quality diets. Much more investment in
and appealing. Public policy can also incentivize greater research on fruits and vegetables, animal source foods,
investment in the infrastructure required to produce, store legumes, nuts and seeds is urgently required. Better
and transport these foods. national-level and subnational data are needed on consumer
food prices, food safety, food loss and waste. The Access to
6 Make policies which regulate product formulation, Nutrition Index that assesses the conduct and performance
labelling, advertising, promotion and taxes a high of companies should be strengthened at the country level.
priority. These are needed to create disincentives for
companies to allocate resources to forms of processing that
undermine diet quality. Policies to educate consumers of the
adverse health effects of consuming these products more
than occasionally are also needed.

12 Executive summary
 Box 3: Research priorities

Research on food, agriculture and nutrition must no functioning global dietary database. Recent efforts to
be refocused on achievement of healthy diets gather data such as the Global Dietary Database (GDD) and
The international and national agricultural research the Global Individual Food consumption data Tool (GIFT),
communities should play a strong leadership role in being developed by the Food and Agricultural Organization
promoting research that addresses productivity, profitability, of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Health
sustainability and nutritional goals at the same time. Organization (WHO), should be built upon.
A ‘high-quality diet’ lens must guide a rebalancing
of funding allocations across the food system. • Many other indicators for the food system also need to
be collected, for example on food quality and safety to help
Metrics for diet quality and the food system need policy makers understand the links between food systems
to be modernised and actual nutritional outcomes.
They are also needed to enable policy makers to monitor
the implications of dietary choices for the future of the More and better evaluation
environment. Policy makers need to be able to assess the effect that
specific interventions and policy actions have on diet quality
More and better data and to determine how they could be improved. For example,
• Effort is urgently needed to substantially improve the recent work to track changes in the purchases of sugar-
quantity and quality of dietary data. Few national sweetened beverages in Mexico following imposition of a
governments collect the data required to inform decision new tax, sheds important light on consumer choices in a
makers about what people actually eat and the UN has changing food environment.

This report highlights the very serious challenges facing There are many public policy opportunities to act on in the
policy makers today and in the future. Already, approximately food system beyond agriculture to improve the consumer’s ability
3 billion people on the planet – from every country – have to access food that is safe, nutritious and affordable.
low-quality diets.

But this report also shows that current trends do not have to This report shows that current
persist if the right actions are taken now and in the coming
decades. Better diets are possible. Ensuring that all people eat trends do not have to persist
healthily is a moral and economic imperative. This will require
focused, determined and sustained action from policy makers
if the right actions are taken now
working in partnership with the private sector in complex and and in the coming decades.
rapidly changing environments. With so much at stake, we all
share a responsibility to find solutions that work for everyone. Better diets are possible

Food systems and diets: Facing the challenges of the 21st century 13
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ISBN: 978-0-9956228-1-4

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and executive summary here:
www.glopan.org/foresight

Jointly funded by

This report is based on research funded in part by the UK Government and the
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The findings and conclusions contained within are
those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect positions or policies of the funders