Plotting The Course To Carbon Neutral Shipping.02
Plotting The Course To Carbon Neutral Shipping.02
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PART 1
IMO STRATEGY
AGENDA
1. IMO STRATEGY
3. NEW FUELS
4. THE OUTLOOK
3
OUR GOAL IS TO BECOME THE LEADING INDEPENDENT FACILITATOR
IN TRANSITION TO NET ZERO
Delivering compliance with IMO targets
Total GHG emissions
The figure is only used for illustrative purposes reach net-zero by
or around 2050
Total: 70% reduction
Total: 20% reduction (striving for 80%) We will achieve the goal by
(striving for 30%)
Intensity: 40% reduction working proactively to
Baseline
Net-zero energy share: 5%
(striving for 10%)
ensure that our customers
year have access to fuels with
2008
the requisite carbon
intensity to ensure
compliance with all relevant
global and regional
Peak as soon
as possible
legislation.
Legend
Emissions pathway in line with
Business-as-usual emissions Emission gap
IMO’s revised GHG strategy
Source: DNV
4
PART 2
THE TRANSITION
DRIVERS
STAKEHOLDERS INFLUENCING THE GREEN TRANSITION
REGULATORS FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS TECHNOLOGY READINESS
▪ Ship designers and engine manufacturers impact the
green transition by increasing energy efficiencies and
• Important regulators are the IMO, regions (e.g. • Financial institutions are beginning to focus more on designing the engines to be compatible with new fuels.
the EU, & the US), and nation states. setting concrete climate targets for the shippers
▪ Ammonia ready engines are still 1-2 years away from
when making new loans. being ready for customers to order.
• IMO has made the long-term 2050 GHG
• Poseidon-Principles is a framework for integrating ▪ Technology for mitigating methane and N20 slip from
reduction strategy and short-term measures like
climate targets into lending decisions. LNG and ammonia will be critical for ensuring the
REGULATORS / LAWMAKERS
EEDI, & EEXI. FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS / TECHNOLOGY
future relevance READINESS
of these fuel choices
(PUSH) • New loans are often linked
ACCESS to a company’s ESG
TO CAPITAL
• Shipping will be included in the Emission Trading targets ▪ Large scale production of low carbon ammonia,
System or making a carbon levy. methane and LNG will need to develop over the coming
decade
6
THE REGULATORY FRAMEWORK TO REDUCE GHG EMISSIONS
Recently implemented frameworks Fleet emmisions Up-coming
7
PART 3
NEW FUELS
FUEL MIX - THE TRANSITION HAS STARTED
2015 2022 2025 2030
?%
80%
54%
60%
?%
?% New fuels
LNG, 2% LNG. 5% 20%
20% expected to
20% Biofuels, 0.5% Biofuels, 2% ?%
increase to
Methanol, 0.1% Methanol, 1% ?% ?% around 20%.
Legend
HFO VLSFO MGO LNG Biofuel blends Methanol Ammonia
9
WELL-TO-WAKE EMISSIONS WILL BECOME THE BEST PRACTICE
WELL-TO-WAKE:
Refers to the emissions for the entire process from fuel production and delivery to use onboard ships
WELL-TO-TANK TANK-TO-WAKE
Raw material Fuel prodiction Transportation Bunkering Storage on- Energy conversion Energy transfer
and storage board to propeller
10
UPSTREAM (WELL-TO-TANK) EMISSIONS MATTER
Well-to-Wake Emissions in Gram CO2eq. per kWh – GWP100
THE OUTLOOK
STATUS ON THE NEW FUEL PARAMETERS
Parameter VLSFO LNG Biofuels* Methanol Ammonia Hydrogen OUR VIEW ON THE DEVELOPMENT IN NEW FUELS
Availability • The range of options within new fuels has evolved a lot
in recent years and therefore patience, analysis and
Energy Density monitoring are key.
From conventional fuels VLSFO Biofuel (FAME, HVO) New Bio-based fuels (pyrolysis, HTL, etc)
Source: IHSMarkit (ihsmarkit.com) and DNV’s Alternative Fuels Insights for the shipping industry –‡AFI platform (afi.dnv.com) as of July 2023
15
PART 5
17
BIOFUELS IN A NUTSHELL
18
IMO target to reduce carbon emissions
from international shipping by 40% by
2030 and 70% by 2050.
BIOFUELS REGULATIONS IN SHIPPING
• Full LCA (WtW) makes biofuels an attractive
solution to decarbonize
• Currently, the most viable and suitable biofuels for use in the maritime industry are fatty acid methyl
ester (FAME Biodiesel) & hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO). FAME Biodiesel & HVO are drop-in fuels and
can be used with existing engines technology and utilize current fuel infrastructure.
• Biofuel covers a wide range of products. Thus, the full landscape of different biofuel products,
generations, feedstocks and blends is very complex.
• Biofuels from certain feedstocks are considered renewable and give immediate emission reductions
based on the well-to- wake LCA principle.
• Three different generations of biofuels exist. The feedstock from which the fuel is derived from differs
between generations.
• 2nd and 3rd generation biofuels are produced from waste and residue are all classed as sustainable.
Biofuels that are produced Biofuels that are not produced Biofuels that are derived from
directly from food crops, which from food crops but from waste algae, which are capable of
is known as conventional and residual oils. higher yields with lower
biofuels. resource inputs.
Examples: Examples: Examples:
Corn, wheat, soybean oil, Used cooking oils, tallow, waste Only non-food crops like
rapeseed oil, sugar cane and residual oils microalgae and macroalgae,
POME, tall oil, etc.
IMO: Allows for 1st generation feedstock provided that it meets sustainability criteria and results in min 65% GHG
reduction
20 Considered as fossil under FuelEU Maritime well-to-wake (full LCA).
BIOFUELS DEMAND IN SHIPPING
• Biofuels demand expected to
increase due to regulations in road
transport, marine and aviation.
21
Source: Transport & Environment, 2023
Biofuels are widely available as they
are a viable and well tested low
BIOFUELS SUPPLY IN SHIPPING
Potential of global supply for sustainable biofuel compared to maximum simulated
carbon solution in road transport demand from shipping and shipping’s share of global energy use today
since 2009
All products can be used as a drop-in marine fuel, either as B100 or as a blend, without requiring any modifications to the engine or system
23
BUNKERING BIOFUELS
24
WHERE CAN YOU GET BIOFUEL TODAY?
BIOFUEL SUPPLY LOCATIONS
25
THE NEW TYPES OF FUELS
26
LNG IN A NUTSHELL
WHAT IS LNG? HOW IS IT STORED?
• Natural gas like pipeline gas • Must be stored in special insulated tanks
• Super-cooled to -162°C • Come in pressurized and non-pressurized forms
• 600 times the energy density of pipeline gas • LNG bunker tanks range between 2-2.5 times the size of comparable conventional fuel
• LNG is often measured in energy units, $/mmbtu (1 $/mmbtu of LNG = ±47 $/mt of LNG) tanks
• MGO/biofuel as pilot fuel will still be needed (±2-3% of LNG volume)
HOW IS IT BUNKERED?
IS THIS AN ESTABLISHED MARINE FUEL TODAY? • Ship-to-ship, truck-to-ship, shore/pipeline-to-ship
Yes: • Small LNG tanker, varying in size between 600-20.000 m3 capacity
• LNG tankers have run on LNG for over 50 years with uptake across other sectors • Compatibility studies between bunker/receiving vessel to be performed (more complex vs
beginning in 2000. conventional fuel)
• The use of LNG has so far grown mainly in the container, car, and cruise segments. • Port authorities validates bunker procedures for each vessel segments
• Uptake in orders for dual fuel LNG powered vessels has 1000 12,000,000
continued throughout 2022 and 2023, accumulating by
200
• Since mid-2023, LNG became back again cost 2,000,000
100
competitive and commercially viable in Europe and Asia.
0 -
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Legend
Number of LNG fuelles vessels in operation
300 5,500,000
5,000,000
250 4,500,000
4,000,000
200
3,500,000
3,000,000
150 197 84
2,500,000
2,000,000
100
1,500,000
128
107 1,000,000
50 44
55 22 500,000
29 17
0 13 -
Car Carriers Container Tanker Bulker Cruise Car Carriers Container Tanker Bulker Cruise
Legend Legend
Vessels on order to end 2026 Additional bunker demand by end on 2026
30
THE NEW TYPES OF FUELS
31
METHANOL IN A NUTSHELL
WHAT IS METHANOL? HOW IS IT STORED?
• Liquid fuel, similar to conventional fuel to handle • Methanol is stored in a conventional style tank (similar to conventional fuels)
CH3OH
• The simplest form – The
of alcohol same
with the mostnumber
favorable hydrogen to carbon Requires
ratio a fuel tankused
• Tanks of 2.5x
for the storage of methanolConventionally produced
need to have an advanced coating (typically
• Energy density just under half that of conventional marine fuels Inorganic Zinc) applied to all surfaces
of hydrogen and carbon size compared to INCREASES W-t-W emissions by
molecules as methane. conventional fuels. 5-15% compared with
IS THIS AN ESTABLISHED MARINE FUEL TODAY? HOW IS IT BURNED ONBOARD?
No: conventional
• Requires a methanol capable engine (not a conventional fuels.
diesel or fuel oil one)
• Used in limited capacity and as fuel onboard methanol carriers since 2016 • Engines are available in 2-stroke and 4-stroke configurations
• Not widely available • All methanol engines require a pilot fuel
• Full regulatory guidelines not yet complete
Renewable methanol can Global supply of grey
WHERE CAN WE GET IT FROM? Global supply of green methanol
IS IT A “GREEN FUEL”?
reduce CO2 emissions by methanol is currently is estimated
• Globally traded, but not widely available toforbebunkering
in small parcels less than
Yes: up to 95% compared to c.115mtpa (equivalent
• Dedicated to
supply chains developing in 0.3mtpa.
NW Europe.
• When produced from fossil fuels, methanol has little/no environmental benefit over • May be offered at methanol production and terminals worldwide in the future
conventional fuels.
conventional fuels c.46mtpa of VLSFO).
• Green methanol can be produced from both bio-waste and renewable energy with
biogenic carbon capture.
HOW DOES IT PRICE COMPARED TO CONVENTIONAL FUEL?
• Green methanol has the potential to reduce full life cycle emissions by up to 99% for • Fossil based methanol prices in a similar range to MGO (although without co-relation)
e-methanol and 70%+ for bio-methanol • Green methanol prices at a significant premium to conventional marine fuels (c.2-3x)
• Reduces NOx emissions by 30-60% Considered a low flashpoint
Liquid
• Significant reduction in fuel and matter
particulate relatively
fuel – Use is governed by
simple to store.
WHAT ARE THE MAIN SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS? the IGF Guidelines.
• Methanol is a low flashpoint fuel (flashpoint 11-12°C
• Methanol can be highly toxic if ingested or inhaled as vapor
32
METHANOL INFRASTRUCTURE AND UPTAKE
33
UPTAKE OF METHANOL AS A MARINE FUEL
Development of Methanol Fueled Fleet Methanol Fueled Fleet by Segment
180 160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40 40
20 20
0 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Legend
Vessels in order
Vessels in operation
Source DNV and BH assessment, Data as of March 2023
34
THE NEW TYPES OF FUELS
35
• IMO IGF Guidelines currently prohibit the use of ammonia as fuel. Updated and complete
WHAT IS AMMONIA? guidelines for the use of ammonia as fuel are still some years away.
• The only fuel considered for deep-sea vessels which doesn’t contain a carbon molecule
• Liquefies at -33°c. at ambient pressure
• Energy density c.30% of conventional marine fuel HOW IS IT STORED?
• Ammonia is stored in double walled tanks, either refrigerated to –33c. Or under pressure.
IS THIS AN ESTABLISHED MARINE FUEL TODAY? • Ammonia tanks need to be 3-3.5x size of conventional fuel tanks to provide the same
range.
No:
• At this time ammonia is only just moving from concept to reality
• First “ammonia ready” engines are likely to be available in 2024 HOW IS IT BURNED ONBOARD?
• Ammonia needs to be burnt in a specially designed engine
• Ammonia will require pilot fuel to achieve ignition
IS IT A “GREEN FUEL”? • Ensuring the total abatement of rogue emissions may require the vessel to have a special
Yes:
exhaust system installed
• Ammonia can be produced via two different carbon neutral avenues:
• from natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration
• through electrolysis from renewable electricity WHERE CAN WE GET IT FROM?
• Both types have the potential to reduce CO2 emissions by close to 100 • Green and Blue ammonia are virtually non-existing products today.
But: • However, supplies of both fuels are likely to develop in the coming years in USGC, NW
• Ammonia fuelled engines may require a significant amount of pilot fuel Europe, Middle East, and Oceania within the next decade.
• Ammonia has the potential for emissions of N2O. The resolution of this problem is
crucial for the environmental credibility of ammonia HOW DOES IT PRICE COMPARED TO CONVENTIONAL FUEL?
• Green ammonia is likely to price at a significant premium to conventional fuels for some
WHAT ARE THE MAIN SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS? time (c.1.5-2x)
• Ammonia is highly toxic and highly corrosive • Blue ammonia has the potential to price at a modest premium (potentially as low as 20%)
• Exposure to even small quantities of ammonia can result in life changing injuries or even over conventional marine fuels.
death
36
EXTERNAL SR | THE DIFFERENT AMMONIA FUEL TYPES
Ammonia fuel types & value chain Differences between grey,
blue & green ammonia
• Different ammonia
production paths offer
varying degrees of
decarbonization.
• Depending on efficiency of
CCS process, blue
ammonia can afford 65-
98% decarbonization
(“blue” to “deep blue”).
• Green ammonia can
theoretically be 100%
carbon neutral.
37
AMMONIA AS A MOLECULE 1/2
Ammonia as a molecule is challenging to handle…
… but manageable
Source: DNV
39
SAFETY CONCEPT
Could the IGF safety concept for LNG also suitable for ammonia?
Source: DNV
40
GOING FORWARD
What is the industry doing: What is BHG doing:
• Before ammonia can be widely adopted as a • MoU with Yara Clean Ammonia
maritime fuel, robust safety regulations and
guidelines must be developed to govern vessel − Cooperate in developing the market for ammonia
design, bunkering operations, and on-board as a shipping fuel
storage and use.
− Exploring opportunities to supply clean ammonia
• The industry has already developed such as a marine fuel to first movers in the shipping
regulations for new fuels like LNG, LPG, and industry
methanol.
− Connecting two key elements of the supply chain
• For ammonia – although the hazards are
different, with its low flammability and its high − a global producer of clean ammonia
toxicity – the process for developing these
regulatory codes will be the same. − the largest bunker supplier to assure the last
mile
41
PART 6
THOUGHTS ON
PRICING
THOUGHTS ON PRICING
Assessment of alternative fuel prices in ARA
This chart reflects pricing trends… It is not explicitly a price forecast!
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
E-Methanol Bio-Methanol E-Ammonia Blue Ammonia Biomethane IFO 380 MGO VLSFO LNG Current FAME FAME 2nd
/ BioLNG Market 2nd Gen. Gen.+Dutc
h HBE
Legend
Source: BH assessment Price range CO2
43
PART 7
PATHWAYS TO
REDUCING
EMISSIONS
PATHWAYS TO REDUCE GHG EMISSIONS
Achieving the goals of the Revised IMO GHG Strategy towards reaching net-zero GHG emissions by
or around 2050 will require a mix of technical, operational and innovative solutions applicable to ships.
Some of them are highlighted here.
New fuels – include the substitution of conventional fuel oil with new fuels like
LNG, LPG, biofuels, methanol, hydrogen, ammonia, and synthetic fuels.
Carbon offsetting & trading – buying verified carbon offsets on the carbon
trading market, where you support green projects that reduce emissions.
45
TECHNICAL AND OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS
Operational Measures
• Routing
• Weather routing
• Trim
• Draught
• Hull fouling
• Propeller fouling
• Just in time arrival
7% - 10% savings
46
PART 8
48
STRATEGIC INITIATIVES FOR NEW FUELS & CARBON MARKETS
49
BUNKER HOLDING’S PLACE IN THE VALUE CHAIN
Bunker Holding Group is committed to support the
Corporate
establishment of the bunker infrastructure needed to
Strategy
supply zero emission bunker fuels.
Marketing
& sales to BHG is the world’s largest supplier and trader of marine
fuels with an estimated global market share of 10-15%.
marine
50
BUILDING A GLOBAL NETWORK OF SUPPLY OF MARINE FUELS
Bunker Holding aims to be able to provide a 1 stop shop
for all our customers’ future fuel requirements, simplifying their fuel procurement process
51
LEVERAGING OUR EXISTING CAPABILITIES
Track
Credit
record
$3.2bn 5 year Trading profitably since
1980
Known and
committed trusted
Sustainability Helping green fuel brands
linked producers to
Supported by aggregate Managing
demand
15 international
banks
last mile supply
and complex operations
52
RECENT KEY ACTIVITIES
Short-term Long-term Fuels &
New Fuels Partnerships
53
THE END