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Exercise1 Task3

This document provides instructions for creating a yield-reliability curve in Excel to analyze how the reliability of a reservoir changes with increasing demand given historical inflow data. The goals are to understand how reliability is affected by increasing demand, assess if inflows will meet higher demands, and understand that reliability decreases as the reservoir level drops below a threshold more frequently with higher demand. The instructions guide the user through populating a conditional formula to calculate reliability for different demand levels, generating a table and graph of reliabilities across a range of yields using a button, and reviewing the steps.

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Mekuanint Shitaw
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50 views2 pages

Exercise1 Task3

This document provides instructions for creating a yield-reliability curve in Excel to analyze how the reliability of a reservoir changes with increasing demand given historical inflow data. The goals are to understand how reliability is affected by increasing demand, assess if inflows will meet higher demands, and understand that reliability decreases as the reservoir level drops below a threshold more frequently with higher demand. The instructions guide the user through populating a conditional formula to calculate reliability for different demand levels, generating a table and graph of reliabilities across a range of yields using a button, and reviewing the steps.

Uploaded by

Mekuanint Shitaw
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Task 3: Create a Yield-Reliability Curve

Now that you have a reservoir that will accommodate historical inflows and meet an initial required yield,
in this task you will determine whether the inflow in each month is sufficient to meet other demand rates
without leaving the reservoir level below a given threshold. You will then calculate the reliability across the
entire period and also graph the way this reliability changes in response to changing expected yields. You
can use the resulting yield-reliability curve to understand the reservoir's ability to meet increasing demand
for water (e.g., due to population growth) given historical inflows. This task provides the foundation for
understanding how yield reliability might also be affected by changing climate conditions, as will be
explored in Task 4.

The goals of this task are:


• To understand how the reliability for the reservoir is affected by increasing the demand.
• To assess whether inflows will or will not be sufficient to meet increasing demand as the expected
yield from a reservoir of given capacity increases.
• To understand that reliability decreases as the reservoir level drops below a certain threshold more
frequently due to changes in demand.

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Before you begin...


• Download and open the Excel file Ex1_Task3.xls.
• You may download a PDF of these instructions as a reference.
• For a demonstration of any step, click the icon.
• In Excel, you can move your mouse pointer over the red triangle in the upper right hand corner of
a cell to view an explanation or definition of the term in the cell.

Step 1 - Given the initial storage level and maximum storage capacity you obtained, you may now
calculate the reliability of the reservoir for higher levels of demand (or yield). This is done by checking
whether the reservoir can meet the demand each month. If the St (storage level in each month) is greater
than or equal to the specified minimum reserve level (cell B4), then the demand has been met. Note that
cell B4, the minimum reserve required or minRes, contains the level below which the reservoir should not
drop.

To calculate whether the demand is met each month, you will populate the ‘Demand met?’ column
(column H). To do this, construct a conditional IF statement. In cell H2 type =IF(G2>=minRes,1,0). This
means if St>= the minimum reserve level (i.e., if the demand has been met), return a value of 1, otherwise
return a value of 0.

Populate the entire column H based on this formula.

Step 2 - To know how many times the demand has been met, you can simply calculate the sum of column
H. Remember: you assigned a value of 1 if the demand was met and 0 if it wasn’t.

To calculate reliability, divide the number of months in which the demand was met by the total number of
all months in the record (i.e., n). To calculate this reliability, type =SUM(demandmet)/n in cell B10.

Step 3 - Now, try increasing the demand rate to 160. Notice that your reliability value drops a little bit.

Step 4 - It is valuable to understand how the reliability changes based on various demand (yield) rates. For
your convenience, we have created a button to generate a yield-reliability table and graph based on a
minimum and maximum yield (or demand rate). Default values for these minimum and maximum yields
are already provided in cells B14 and B15, respectively. Push the ‘Generate rel. table’ button to calculate
the reliability values for yields within your specified range. You will be able to view the table and graph of
these reliabilities in the ‘Yield-Reliability’ tab.

Review all steps in this task

Close file Ex1_Task3.xls and continue to Task 4.

⇠ Task 2 Task 4 ⇢

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