Republic of the Philippines

DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
MMSS-04 Rev. 0 / 15-08-2023
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 6
Tropical Depression KABAYAN
Issued at 8:00 PM, 17 December 2023
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.

“KABAYAN” ACCELERATES AS IT MOVES WESTWARD EAST OF MINDANAO

Location of Center (7:00 PM)

The center of Tropical Depression KABAYAN was

estimated based on all available data at 290 km
East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur
(7.7°N, 128.9°E)
Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the
center, gustiness of up to 70 km/h, and central
pressure of 1002 hPa

Present Movement

Westward at 10 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong winds extend outwards up to 350 km from
the center
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
Center Position Intensity Movement
dir. and
Date and Time Lat. Lon. MSW
Location Cat. speed
(°N) (°E) (km/h) (km/h)
12-Hour Forecast
Over the coastal waters of Lingig, Surigao del
5:00 AM 8.1 126.9 Sur
55 TD WNW 20
18 December 2023
24-Hour Forecast
5:00 PM 9.0 123.5 Over coastal waters of Lazi, Siquijor 45 TD WNW 30
18 December 2023
36-Hour Forecast
140 km East Southeast of Puerto Princesa
5:00 AM 9.4 120.0 City, Palawan
45 TD W 30
19 December 2023
48-Hour Forecast
5:00 PM 9.8 117.1 180 km West of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan 55 TD W 25
19 December 2023
60-Hour Forecast
100 km Southeast of Pag-asa Island,
5:00 AM 10.3 114.8 Kalayaan, Palawan
55 TD WNW 20
20 December 2023
72-Hour Forecast
140 km West Southwest of Pag-asa Island,
5:00 PM 10.6 113.1 Kalayaan, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)
55 TD W 15
20 December 2023
96-Hour Forecast
430 km West Southwest of Pag-asa Island,
5:00 PM 10.0 110.5 Kalayaan, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)
65 TS WSW 10
21 December 2023
120-Hour Forecast
740 km West Southwest of Pag-asa Island,
5:00 PM 8.6 108.0 Kalayaan, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)
55 TD WSW 15
22 December 2023

Page 1 of 3

Prepared by: JEMB Checked by: SFD

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 Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
MMSS-04 Rev. 0 / 15-08-2023
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 6
Tropical Depression KABAYAN
Issued at 8:00 PM, 17 December 2023
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. Luzon Visayas Mindanao

Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del
Southern Leyte, Leyte, the
Sur, the northern portion of Davao Oriental (Cateel,
southern portion of Samar
Boston, Baganga, Manay, Caraga), Agusan del
(Basey, Santa Rita, Marabut,
Norte, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Bukidnon,
Talalora, Villareal, Pinabacdao),
Agusan del Sur, Davao de Oro, Misamis
the southern portion of Eastern
Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, the
Samar (Maydolong, City of
northern and central portion of Davao del Norte
1 - Borongan, Quinapondan, Guiuan,
Lawaan, Balangiga, Llorente,
Giporlos, Salcedo, Balangkayan,
(Santo Tomas, New Corella, Braulio E. Dujali, City of
Panabo, Asuncion, City of Tagum, Talaingod, Carmen,
Wind threat: Kapalong, San Isidro), Davao City, the northern
Strong General Macarthur, Hernani,
portion of Cotabato (Arakan, Carmen, Banisilan,
winds Mercedes), Cebu including
Alamada, President Roxas, Kabacan, Matalam,
Camotes Islands, Bantayan
Antipas, Magpet), and the northern portion of
Islands, Bohol, and Siquijor
Maguindanao (Buldon, Barira, Matanog)
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

Forecast accumulated rainfall from tonight to tomorrow evening

 100-200 mm: Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, and Southern Leyte
 50-100 mm: Eastern Visayas, Davao Region, Northern Mindanao, and the rest of Caraga
Forecast accumulated rainfall from tomorrow evening to Tuesday evening
 100-200 mm: Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, and Southern Leyte
 50-100 mm: Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, Northern Mindanao, and the rest of Caraga.

Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-
induced landslides are likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified
in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.

In addition, the Shear Line coinciding with the passage of KABAYAN may bring heavy rainfall over the eastern portion of
Southern Luzon today and over the eastern portion of Luzon tomorrow. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory
No. 3 issued at 11:00 AM today and the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook issued at 4:00 PM today.

Page 2 of 3

Prepared by: JEMB Checked by: SFD

WFFC, BIR Road, Diliman, Quezon City (02) 8284-0800 ext. 4801 bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
 Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
MMSS-04 Rev. 0 / 15-08-2023
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 6
Tropical Depression KABAYAN
Issued at 8:00 PM, 17 December 2023
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Severe Winds

The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds
may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in
areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.

 Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.

Additional provinces in Visayas and Mindanao may be placed under Wind Signal No. 1 in the next bulletin.

The surge of the Northeast Monsoon will bring also gusty conditions for the next 2 days over the following areas not
under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:

 Tonight and tomorrow: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Rizal,
Quezon, Lubang Island, Marinduque, Cuyo Islands, Bicol Region, Visayas, the northern and eastern portion of
mainland Cagayan, the eastern portions of Isabela and Nueva Ecija, and portions of Cordillera Administrative
Region, Zambales, Pampanga, Cavite, Mindoro Provinces.

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

Under the influence of the Northeast Monsoon surge and KABAYAN, a Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters
along the seaboard of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao. Sea travel is risky for
small seacraft (including all motor bancas of any type or tonnage). Mariners of these vessels are advised to
remain in port or seek safe harbor. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 4 issued at 5:00 PM today.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

 KABAYAN is forecast to track generally westward or west northwestward path across the Philippine archipelago over
the next two days and is likely to maintain it strength until its initial landfall over Mindanao. However, the possibility
of reaching tropical storm category pre-landfall is not ruled out.
 On the track forecast, it is likely to make landfall along the coast of Surigao del Sur or Davao Oriental tonight or
tomorrow morning, cross the rugged terrain of Mindanao, and emerge over Bohol Sea or Sulu Sea tomorrow morning
or afternoon. Due to frictional effects associated with landfall, KABAYAN is forecast to weaken over land and the
possibility of being downgraded into a low pressure area while over land or after emerging over the sea is not ruled
out (although in such a case, re-development may still occur over the Sulu Sea).
 For the remainder of tomorrow and into early morning of Tuesday, KABAYAN will move across the Sulu Sea south
of Cuyo Islands. The tropical cyclone is forecast to make another landfall over central or southern Palawan as a
tropical depression by Tuesday morning, then emerge over the Philippine Sea by noon or early afternoon of the same
day. Afterwards, KABAYAN may pass near or over Kalayaan Islands in the West Philippine Sea.
 It is imperative to stress that the projected track and intensity of the tropical depression remain subject to change,
given its nature and strength.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to
take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly
susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall
warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please
monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 PM today.

DOST-PAGASA

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