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Final exam sb

Principles of marketing (Trường Đại học Kinh tế Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh)

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14) A software developer makes 175 phone calls to its current customers. There is an 8 percent chance of
reaching a given customer (instead of a busy signal, no answer, or answering machine). The normal
approximation of the probability of reaching at least 20 customers is

A) .022 B) .007
C) .063 D) .937
probability, normal distribution, n=175, p=0.08, z=19.5 (probability of reaching at least 20 customers
=> continuity correction (P>19.5))
1−p
mean=μ=np=14 , std dev=σ =
√ n p ( ¿=3.588872

15) A random sample of 160 commercial customers of PayMor Lumber revealed that 32 had paid their
accounts within a month of billing. The 95 percent confidence interval for the true proportion of
customers who pay within a month would be

A) 0.148 to 0.252 B) 0.138 to 0.262

C) 0.144 to 0.256 D) 0.153 to 0.247
confidence interval for proportion, n=160, p=32/160,

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16) The owner of Limp Pines Resort wanted to know the average age of its clients. A random sample of
25 tourists is taken. It shows a mean age of 46 years with a standard deviation of 5 years. The width of a
98 percent confidence interval for the true mean client age is approximately

A) ±1.711 years. B) ±2.326 years.

C) ±2.492 years. D) ±2.797 years.
confidence interval for mean, n=25, mean=46, std=5, t-distribution => The width = (upper-lower)/2

17) Jolly Blue Giant Health Insurance (JBGHI) is concerned about rising lab test costs and would like to
know what proportion of the positive lab tests for prostate cancer are actually proven correct through
subsequent biopsy. JBGHI demands a sample large enough to ensure an error of ±2 percent with 90
percent confidence. What is the necessary sample size?

A) 4,148 B) 2,401
C) 1,692 D) 1,604
E=0.02, confidence interval 90, p=0.5, sample size p

18) A sample n of 16 ATM transactions shows a mean transaction time x́ of 67 seconds with a standard
deviation s of 12 seconds. Find the test statistic to decide whether the mean transaction time μ0
exceeds 60 seconds.

A) 1.457 B) 2.037
C) 2.333
C1: D) 1.848
hypo tests => mean vs hypothesized value => summary input, mean=67, std=12, n=16, hypothesized
value=60

C2:
x́ −μ 0 67−60
t= = =2.333
s 12
√n √16
19) The Melodic Kortholt Company will change its current health plan if at least half the employees are
dissatisfied with it. A trial sample of 25 employees shows that 16 are dissatisfied. For a right-tailed test
(greater than), the test statistic would be

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A) 1.227 B) 1.375
C) 1.400 D) 1.115
hypothesis test, proportion vs hypothesized value, n=25, p=16/25, p hypo =0.5 => z

20) Carver Memorial Hospital's surgeons have a new procedure that they think will decrease the time to
perform an appendectomy. A sample of 8 appendectomies using the old method had a mean of 38 minutes
with a variance of 36 minutes, while a sample of 10 appendectomies using the experimental method had a
mean of 29 minutes with a variance of 16 minutes. For a right-tailed test of means (assume equal
variances-pooled), the test statistic is

A) 3.814 B) 2.365
C) 3.000 D) 1.895
C1:
Lần lượt nhập 2 group thành 2 cột theo thứ tự label, mean, std, n => hypo tests => compare 2
groups => summary input

C2:
7 × 36+9 ×16 7 × 36+9 ×16
pooled sample variance s 2 = =24.75
7+9 7+9
38−29
¿ =3.814
test statistic
√ (1 1
24.75 × +
8 10 )
21) Randomly chosen MBA students were asked their opinions about the ideal number of children for a
married couple. The sample data were entered into MegaStat, and the following results were produced.

Hypothesis Test: independent Groups

(t-test, unequal variance)
Men Women
2.812 2.1538 mean
1.2505 0.5547 std. dev.
11 13 sample size
13 pooled df
0.6582 difference (Men - Women)
0.40722 standard error of difference
0 hypothesized difference
1.62 T
p-value (one-tailed, upper) alpha-0.05
not reject H0, support H0, equal
0.065
H0: men-women <= 0
H1: men-women > 0

F-test for equality of variance

1.56375 variance: Men
0.307692 variance: Women
5.08 F
0.01 p-value

What conclusion can you draw from this analysis at α = .05?

A) Men want larger families on average than women.

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B) Women want larger families on average than men.

C) This is insufficient evidence to suggest a difference in means.
D) We could conclude that men want larger families if we used a two-tailed test.

23) A random sample of Ersatz University students revealed that 16 females had a mean of $22.30 in their
wallets with a standard deviation of $3.20, while 6 males had a mean of $17.30 with a standard deviation
of $9.60. At α = .10, to test for equal variances in a two-tailed test, the critical values are
A) 0.441 and 3.24 B) 0.556 and 2.27
C) 0.345 and 4.62 D) 0.387 and 2.90
lan luot 2 cot label, mean, std, n, hypo tests, compare 2 groups, summary input, not equal, test for
equality of variances,

=FINV(0.05,16-1,6-1)

Questions 24 to 26 are based on the following partial ANOVA results from Excel (some information
is missing).

ANOVA table
Source SS df MS F P-value
Treatment 717.4 3 239.13 .0442
Error 70.675
Total 1,848.2 19

24) The MS (mean square) for the treatments is

A) 239.13 B) 106.88
C) 1,130.8 D) impossible to ascertain from the information given.
SS/df

25) The F statistic is

A) 4.87 B) 3.38
C) 5.93 D) 6.91
MS treatment / MS error

26) Our decision about the hypothesis of equal treatment means is that the null hypothesis

A) cannot be rejected at α = .05.

B) can be rejected at α = .05.
C) can be rejected for any typical value of α.
D) cannot be assessed from the given information.

p-value < alpha => reject, different

27) A local trucking company fitted a regression to relate the travel time (days) of its shipments as a
function of the distance traveled (miles). The fitted regression is Time = −7.126 + 0.0214 Distance. If
Distance increases by 50 miles, the expected Time would increase by

A) 1.07 days. B) 7.13 days.

C) 2.14 days. D) 1.73 days.
0.0214*50 = 1.07 days

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28) A fitted regression Profit = 262 + 1.51 Sales (all variables in thousands of dollars) was estimated from
a random sample of 15 small coffee kiosks. We can say that

A) the slope is too small to be significant.

B) the intercept does not seem reasonable.
C) the R2 will be low due to small sample size.
D) predictions are likely to be underestimated.
The profit cannot be positive when the sales are zero

29) A researcher's regression results are shown below using n = 8 observations.

Variable Coefficients Standard Error

Intercept –0.1667 2.8912

Slope 1.8333 0.2307

Which is the 95 percent confidence interval for the slope?

A) [1.333, 2.284] B) [1.602, 2.064]

C) [1.268, 2.398] D) [1.118, 2.449]
df = n – (k + 1) = 8 – (1+1) = 6 (k: the number of independent variables)
1.8333 ±t∗0.2307
t-table with 95 percent confidence interval and df = 6 => t = 2.447

30) A fitted regression Profit = −570 + 30 Sales (all variables in thousands of dollars) was estimated from
a random sample of pharmacies. From this regression, in order to break even (Profit ≥ 0), a pharmacy's
Sales would have to be at least

A) 19 B) 300
C) 56 D) 100
−570+30 Sales ≥ 0=¿ Sales ≥19

PART 2: SHORT ANSWER.

1) The following table is the frequency distribution of parking fees for a day:

Fee (dollars) F Number of Garages

6.00 < 6.50 5
6.50 < 7.00 8
7.00 < 7.50 mode 10
7.50 < 8.00 7
The mean
k

∑ f i mi 6.25 ×5+6.75× 8+7.25 ×10+7.75 ×7

x́= i=1k = =7.07
5+ 8+10+7
∑fi
i=1
The median:
Fee (dollars) CF Number of Garages
6.00 < 6.50 5

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6.50 < 7.00 13

7.00 < 7.50 median 23

7.50 < 8.00 30

Median: 30/2 = 15
Std dev:

√√
k

∑ f i ( mi− x́ )2
i=1
s= k

∑ f i−1
i=1

(6.25−7.07)2 ×5+(6.7 5−7.07)2 × 8+(7.25−7.07)2 × 10+(7.75−7.07)2 ×7

¿
5+8+10+7−1

2) Here are statistics on order sizes of Megalith Construction Supply's shipments of two kinds of
construction materials last year.

Girders Rivets
Mean 160 2800
Std. Dev. 48 702

Which order sizes have greater variability?

Rivets have greater variability

3) Given the contingency table shown here, find P(B | A).

Age

Absences Under 25 (A) 25 or More (A') Row Total

Under 2 days (B) 50 40 90
2 or more days (B') 30 80 110
Column Total 80 120 200
P (B ∩ A )
P( B∨ A)= =50 /80=0.62 5
P(A)

4) Ramjac Company wants to set up k independent file servers, each capable of running the company's
intranet. Each server has average "uptime" of 98 percent. What must k be to achieve 99.999 percent
probability that the intranet will be "up"?
1 − P(F1∩F2∩F3) = 1 − (.02)(.02)(.02) = 1 − .000008 = .999992, so 3 servers will do

5) From the following tree, find

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the probability that a randomly chosen person will get the flu vaccine and will also get the flu.
= 0.7*0.10 = 0.07
the probability that a randomly chosen person will get the flu: (.70)(.10) + (.30)(.40).

6) There is a .02 probability that a customer's Visa charge will be rejected at a certain Target store because
the transaction exceeds the customer's credit limit. What is the probability that the first such rejection
occurs within the first 20 Visa transactions?
Geometric CDF:
P ( x ≤20 )=1− (1−0.02 )20=0.3324

7) What is the standard deviation of the random variable Y = 3X − 10 if the expected value of a random
variable X is 140 and the standard deviation of it is 14.
Std dev(Y) = 3Std dev(X) – Std dev(10)
= 3.14 – 0 (*standard deviation of a constant is alws zero).
= 42

8) On average, a major earthquake (Richter scale 6.0 or above) occurs 3 times a decade in a certain
California county. What is the probability that less than six months will pass before the next earthquake?
C1:

=EXPONDIST(0.5,3/10,1)

C2:

P ( X ≤ x )=1−ⅇ−λx

10
mean μ= =¿ 1time 3.3333 years
3

3
=> λ=
10

6 months = 0.5 year

−3
×0.5
P ( X ≤ 0.5 ) =1−ⅇ 10 =0.139 3

9) A poll showed that 48 out of 120 randomly chosen graduates of California medical schools last year
intended to specialize in family practice. What is the width of a 90 percent confidence interval for the
proportion that plan to specialize in family practice?

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C1:

C2:
x 48
p= = =0.4
n 120
z value for 90% confidence level = 1.645

 Margin of error = ±z
√ p∗(1−p)
n
= ±1.645 .
√ 0.4∗(1−0 .4)
120
=± 0.073566

10) A company wants to estimate the time its trucks take to drive from city A to city B. The standard
deviation is known to be 12 minutes. What sample size is required so that the error does not exceed ±2
minutes, with 95 percent confidence?
2 2 2 2
z σ 1.96 12
n= 2
= 2
=139
E 2

11) The process that produces Sonora Bars (a type of candy) is intended to produce bars with a (hypo)
mean μ0 weight of 56 gm. The process standard deviation σ is known to be 0.77 gm. A random
sample n of 49 candy bars yields a (sample) mean x́ weight of 55.82 gm.

a. Which are the hypotheses to test whether the mean is smaller than it is supposed to be?
H 0 : μ ≥ 56
H 1 : μ<56

b. Find the test statistic to see whether the candy bars are smaller than they are supposed to be.
C1:

t=−1.636

C2:

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x́ −μ 0 55.82−56
t= =t= =−1.636
σ 0.77
√n √ 49
c. Find the p-value for a test to see whether the candy bars are smaller than they are supposed to be.
H 0 : μ ≥ 56

H 1 : μ<56

x́ −μ 0 55.82−56
t= =t= =−1.636
σ 0.77
√n √ 49
from t-table, with df = 49 - 1 = 48 and t = -1.636
1.299 < 1.636 < 1.677
0.05 < p_value < 0.10
 between 0.05 and 0.10

14) During a test period, an experimental group of 10 vehicles using an 85 percent ethanol-gasoline
mixture showed mean CO2 emissions of 667 pounds per 1000 miles, with a standard deviation of 20
pounds. A control group of 14 vehicles using regular gasoline showed mean CO2 emissions of 679
pounds per 1000 miles with a standard deviation of 15 pounds. At α = .05, what is the test statistics in a
left-tailed test (assuming equal variances)?
C1:

t = -1.683

C2:
x́ 1− x́ 2
t=

√
2 2
( n1−1 ) s1 + ( n2−1 ) s 2 1
n1+ n2−2 n1 ( +
1
n2 )
667−679
¿

√
( 10−1 ) 202 + ( 14−1 ) 15 2 1 1

¿−1.683
10+14−2
+
10 14 ( )

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Question 15 to 17 are based on the following partial ANOVA results from Excel (some information
is missing). The response variable was Y = maximum amount of water pumped from wells (gallons
per minute).

Source of Variation SS df MS F
Depth of well 2450 2 1225
Age of well 364.667 3.8371
Interaction 32.667 4 0.1719
Error 855.333 18 47.519
Total 3702.667 26

15) What are the degrees of freedom for age of well?

= 26 – 2 – 4 – 18
=2

16) What is the F statistic for depth of well?

= MS Depth of well / MS error
= 1225 / 47.519
= 25.78

17) What is the MS for interaction?

= SS/df
= 32.667/4
= 8.16675

A researcher used Femlab (labor force participation rate among females) to try to predict Cancer
(death rate per 100,000 population due to cancer) in the 50 U.S. states.

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.313422848

R Square 0.098233882

Adjusted R Square 0.079447088

Standard Error 32.07003698

Observations 50

Variable Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept 343.619889 61.0823514 5.62552

Femlab –2.2833659 0.99855319 –2.28667

18) What is the meaning of R Square in the above results?

The model explains about 10% of the variation in state cancer rates

19) Based on this estimated relationship, when labor force paticipation rate among females increases by
5%, the expected death rate per 100,000 population due to cancer would increase or decrease by how
much?

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20) Which is the 95 percent confidence interval for the slope?

df = 50 – (1 + 1) = 50 – (1+1) = 48 (k: the number of independent variables)
– 2.2833659 ± t∗0.99855319
t-table with 95 percent confidence interval and df = 48 => t = 2.0106
[-4.291, -0.276]

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