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The document discusses key aspects of load and energy forecasting in power systems. It explains that load forecasting is essential for resource planning, grid stability, and economic efficiency. It involves analyzing historical load data and considering various influencing factors to estimate future demand levels. Two common techniques used are statistical models like regression and time series analysis, as well as machine learning models which can handle non-linear relationships in data. While precise historical system data is needed, long-term load and energy forecasting over 10 years is challenging due to uncertainties but considers growth trends.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
43 views18 pages

WENDM End PSP 1

The document discusses key aspects of load and energy forecasting in power systems. It explains that load forecasting is essential for resource planning, grid stability, and economic efficiency. It involves analyzing historical load data and considering various influencing factors to estimate future demand levels. Two common techniques used are statistical models like regression and time series analysis, as well as machine learning models which can handle non-linear relationships in data. While precise historical system data is needed, long-term load and energy forecasting over 10 years is challenging due to uncertainties but considers growth trends.
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MEKELLE UNIVERSITY

MEKELLE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

Department of Electrical Engineering (power stream)

Power system planning and operation individual assignment

Name: wendim mesay


Id no: mit/ur/10151/10

Submitted to: ins leul

Submission date:21/12/2023 G.C


Q1.

A. key components of an electric power system and their purpose are:


 Power Generation: The process of producing electricity from a variety of sources, including
nuclear energy, renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and hydro), fossil fuels (coal, and
natural gas), or energy storage devices, is known as power generation. The purpose is to
convert the energy into electrical form.
 Transmission: Once electricity is generated, it needs to be transmitted over long distances from
power plants to load centers. The transmission system comprises high-voltage transmission
lines, transformers, and substations. Its purpose is to transport electricity efficiently, minimizing
losses.
 Distribution: delivers electricity from the transmission lines to end consumers such as
residential, commercial, and industrial users. It includes medium-voltage and low-voltage lines,
distribution transformers, and local substations. The purpose is to provide electricity to
consumers reliably and safely.
 Control and Protection: These systems keep an eye on and oversee how the power system is
running. They are made up of circuit breakers, protective relays, control centers, and
supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems. Their purpose is to guarantee the
power system's stability, dependability, and safety, through parameter monitoring and fault
response.
B. Basic Similarities between Isolated and Interconnected Power Systems:

 Power Generation: Both isolated and interconnected power systems involve the generation of
electrical energy from various sources such as fossil fuels, renewable sources, or energy storage
systems. The methods of power generation, including the use of generators or renewable
energy technologies, can be similar in both systems.
 Distribution and Consumption: Both systems aim to deliver electricity to end consumers for
various purposes, including residential, commercial, and industrial use. The distribution
infrastructure, such as transformers and low-voltage lines, is similar in both systems to supply
electricity to consumers.
 Energy Demand and Load Management: Both systems need to manage the energy demand and
load fluctuations to ensure a reliable and stable power supply. Demand forecasting, load
balancing, and control mechanisms are employed in both isolated and interconnected systems
to match supply with demand.
 Electrical Safety: Safety measures and standards related to electrical installations, grounding,
protective devices, and personnel safety apply to both isolated and interconnected power
systems to prevent electrical hazards and ensure the safety of users and workers.

Basic Difference between Isolated and Interconnected Power Systems:

 Isolated power system is a ground connected power supply and its voltage range is 100-150 V
while interconnected power system is a combination of two or more power supply (more than
500KV) that is not connected to ground.
 While interconnected power systems are larger and linked to other grids, isolated
power systems are usually smaller and self-contained, catering to a particular area or
community.
 Because isolated systems are not connected to a wider grid, they frequently rely on
localized generating sources, including diesel generators or renewable energy systems.
 On the other hand, linked systems can import or export electricity throughout the grid
and gain from a variety of generating sources.
 Because of redundancy and resource sharing, interconnected systems are more reliable
than isolated ones, which may be more prone to interruptions and have fewer backup
choices.
 While isolated systems function independently, interconnected systems necessitate
coordination and synchronization between various utility firms and grids.

C. Interrelationships between Power and Energy Flows:


 Energy flows in an electric power system start from the primary energy sources,
such as coal, natural gas, solar radiation, wind, or water potential. These energy
sources provide the potential energy that can be converted into electrical energy.
 Power is the rate at which energy is generated, transmitted, or consumed. It
represents the flow or transfer of energy. Power is measured in watts (W) or
kilowatts (kW) and indicates the amount of energy transferred or consumed per
unit of time.
 In the power system, the energy flow starts with the conversion of primary energy
sources into electrical energy through power generation processes. The power
generated is then transmitted through high-voltage transmission lines to
substations.
 At substations, transformers step down the voltage for distribution purposes. The
power is then distributed through medium-voltage and low-voltage power lines
to end consumers. Along the distribution system, power flows can be adjusted
through power factor correction and voltage regulation.
 Consumers receive electrical energy and utilize it for various purposes. The
energy flow is associated with the total amount of energy consumed over a given
period. Energy is measured in joules (J), kilowatt-hours (kWh), or other
appropriate units. The energy consumed by a consumer depends on the power
rating of their appliances and the duration of their usage.
generally, power flows represent the instantaneous rate at which energy is transferred or
consumed, while energy flows represent the total amount of energy transferred or consumed
over time. The power system facilitates the conversion, transmission, and distribution of
electrical energy from primary sources to end consumers.

Q2.

A. the essential steps in load and energy forecasting are: model development, Voltage
Regulation, infrastructure decisions, Long-Term Planning.
Electrical load forecasting refers to the process of predicting the future electricity
consumption or demand within a specific power system or geographical area. It
involves analyzing historical load data, considering various factors such as weather
patterns, economic indicators, population growth, and industrial activities, and using
statistical and mathematical models to estimate the future load levels.it is essential
in power system planning for several reasons:
 Resource Planning: Load forecasting helps utility companies and power system
Operators in determining the optimal capacity of generation resources required
to meet the projected demand. It assists in the planning and development of
new power plants, transmission lines, and distribution networks.
 Grid Stability: Accurate load forecasting enables operators to maintain grid
stability by ensuring that the generation capacity matches the load demand. It
helps in preventing blackouts, brownouts, and overloading of the power
system.
 Economic Efficiency: Load forecasting plays a crucial role in optimizing the
operation of power systems and minimizing costs. By accurately predicting the
load, utilities can schedule generation resources efficiently, optimize fuel
consumption, and reduce the need for expensive backup power sources.

B. In power systems, there are various techniques for forecasting load and electric energy. There
are two often employed techniques:
 Statistical Models: If future load levels are to be predicted, statistical models make use
of pertinent variables and historical load data. Models like regression analysis, artificial
neural networks (ANN), and time series analysis (such as autoregressive integrated
moving average, or ARIMA models) are examples of these models. Given their
simplicity, practicability, and capacity to identify patterns and trends in data, statistical
models are frequently employed.
 Machine Learning models: In load and energy forecasting, machine learning methods
like support vector machines (SVM), random forests, and deep learning algorithms are
becoming more and more common. Nonlinearities and intricate relationships in the
data can be handled by these techniques. Models for machine learning need to be
extensively trained.
C. Precise historical data and particular system characteristics are needed to estimate load and
energy forecasting for a given power system over a ten-year period. It is difficult to offer an
accurate estimate, though, without access to particular data. Load and energy forecasting
typically involve analyzing historical load patterns, weather data, economic indicators, and other
relevant factors. By considering the growth rate of population, industrial activities, and
technological advancements, one can estimate the future load and energy requirements.
However, the accuracy of the estimation would depend on the availability and quality of data,
the chosen forecasting methods, and the specific characteristics of the power system under
consideration.

Q3.
A. The four key major sectors of electric power consumers in a typical interconnected
power system are:

 Residential Sector: This sector includes households and residential


buildings. It encompasses electricity consumption for lighting, heating,
cooling, appliances, and other domestic needs. The total power
consumption in the residential sector can vary significantly depending
on factors such as population, climate, and energy efficiency measures.
On average, residential sectors account for around 35-40% of the total
power consumption in many countries.
 Commercial Sector: The commercial sector comprises offices, retail
stores, hotels, restaurants, and other non-industrial businesses. It
includes electricity usage for lighting, HVAC systems, computers,
equipment, and other commercial activities. The total power
consumption in the commercial sector also varies based on factors like
economic activity and building efficiency. Typically, the commercial
sector accounts for around 30-35% of the total power consumption.
 Industrial Sector: consists of manufacturing plants, factories, and
industrial facilities. It involves energy-intensive processes such as
manufacturing, processing, and production. The power consumption in
the industrial sector tends to be higher compared to other sectors. The
percentage of total power consumed by the industrial sector can vary
widely depending on the level of industrialization in a country. In
developed countries, it can range from 25% to 40%.
 Transportation Sector: The transportation sector includes electric
railways, Electric vehicles, and other forms of electric transportation. It
covers the energy required for running trains, trams, electric cars,
buses, and other electric-powered vehicles. Currently, the
transportation sector has a relatively smaller share of the total power
consumption compared to the other sectors.

N.B the power consumption ratios among these sectors can vary from one country to
another, depending on factors such as economic structure, energy policies, and
technological advancements.

B. For every major sector, future load increase can be estimated by taking into account a
number of different factors, including population expansion, economic development,
government regulations, and technology improvements.
The major constraints to be minimized or maximized when estimating future load
growth are:

Energy Efficiency: Increasing energy efficiency measures can help minimize


load growth by reducing the energy demand of consumers. Promoting
energy-efficient appliances, buildings, and industrial processes can
significantly impact the overall load growth.
Renewable Energy Integration: Maximizing the integration of renewable
energy sources, such as solar and wind, can help meet the growing load while
minimizing the reliance on fossil fuels. This requires the development of
renewable energy infrastructure and supportive policies.
Demand Response Programs: Implementing demand response programs
can help manage and shift electricity consumption during peak demand
periods. By incentivizing consumers to reduce or shift their electricity usage,
the overall load growth can be controlled.
Grid Modernization: Upgrading and modernizing the power grid
infrastructure can improve its capacity, reliability, and flexibility. This includes
investments in smart grid technologies, grid automation, energy storage
systems, and advanced monitoring and control systems.

c. Let’s choose the Residential Sector as the major consumer sector with connected standard or
sample loads. Meeting power and energy requirements in the residential sector according to
standard time frames involves the following steps and considerations.

 Daily Requirements: The power and energy requirements of residential


consumers vary throughout the day. To meet daily requirements, utilities must
ensure a reliable and continuous power supply to residential areas. This
involves load forecasting, grid management, and monitoring the load profile
to balance supply and demand. Utilities should also provide customer support
and handle any power outages or emergencies promptly.
 Weekly Requirements: Weekly requirements may include specific energy
demands during weekends or weekdays. For example, some households may
have higher energy requirements during weekends due to increased leisure
activities or social gatherings. Utilities need to consider these variations and
ensure sufficient power supply during peak periods.
 Monthly Requirements: Monthly requirements may involve billing cycles,
meter readings, and energy consumption patterns. Utilities should accurately
measure and record the energy consumption of residential customers to
generate accurate bills. They should also provide energy consumption
information to customers to promote energy conservation and awareness.
 Yearly Requirements: Yearly requirements may involve seasonal variations in
energy demand, such as higher heating or cooling needs during extreme
weather conditions. Utilities should prepare for these variations by ensuring
adequate power generation capacity, maintaining infrastructure, and
implementing demand-side management programs.

Q4.
A. A load duration curve is a graphical depiction used in power system planning that shows
how load demand varies over a given period, usually one day a year.

To drive a load duration curve (LDC) for a given interconnected power system, the
following steps are typically followed:

Load Data collection: For the particular interconnected power system, load
data from the past is gathered. Electricity meters, load monitoring systems,
and grid operators are some of the sources from which this data comes.
sorting the Load Data: Depending on the size of the load demand, the
gathered load data is arranged in descending order. The load data points are
sorted in this manner, going from highest demand to lowest.
Calculation of duration: The percentage of time that a specific load demand
is met or exceeded is used to determine the duration for each load demand
level. To calculate this, divide the overall duration of the load data by the
cumulative duration (e.g., in hours) for each load demand level.

The key components or aspects of load variations that can be derived from an LDC
include:

 Load Distribution: The LDC illustrates the distribution of load levels within the
power system. It shows the frequency and duration of occurrence of different
load levels, ranging from low to high.
 Peak Load: The LDC identifies the peak load, which represents the maximum
demand experienced by the system within a given time period. This information
is crucial for system planning and sizing of generation and transmission
infrastructure.
 Base Load: The LDC also reveals the base load, which represents the minimum
level of demand that persists consistently over a specific time period. Base load is
typically associated with essential services that require a constant supply of
electricity, such as street lighting or industrial processes that run continuously.

B. The LDC is used in the planning and operations of a typical power system on a daily
basis by providing insights into the expected load profile and helping in the following
ways:

 Generation Scheduling: The LDC assists in determining the optimal scheduling of


power generation resources to meet the forecasted load. By analyzing the load
duration curve and considering the available generation capacity, operators can plan
and dispatch generation units effectively.
 Unit Commitment: Depending on the load demand at different times of the
day, the LDC assists in determining which generation units should be
committed. Operators of power systems can determine times of high and low
demand by analyzing the LDC
 Load Forecasting: The LDC serves as a tool for load forecasting, enabling operators to
predict future load levels accurately. This information helps in resource allocation,
maintenance planning, and determining reserve requirements.
 Demand Response: The LDC facilitates demand response programs by identifying
periods of high demand and peak load. Utilities can incentivize consumers to shift their
electricity usage to off-peak hours, thereby reducing strain on the system during peak
periods.
 Real-time Monitoring: The load demand can be observed in real-time using the
LDC as a reference. This makes it possible to maintain the stability and
dependability of the power system through prompt interventions and remedial
measures

C. Here's a brief overview of how the LDC is utilized in each timeframe:

 Daily Planning: The LDC assists in developing a daily load profile that considers
the expected load variations and patterns throughout the day. This information
guides decision-making on generation scheduling, load forecasting, and
demand response strategies for the upcoming day.
 Weekly and Monthly Planning: By analyzing the historical LDC data for a given
week or month, utilities can identify recurring load patterns and trends. This
information helps in optimizing resource allocation, maintenance planning, and
load management strategies.
 Yearly Planning: The LDC provides insights into the annual load profile and
helps utilities in long-term capacity planning. It aids in determining the required
generation capacity, transmission infrastructure upgrades, and potential
demand-side management initiatives to meet the projected load growth.

Generally, the LDC is a valuable tool in power system planning and operations.

Q5.

A. The above statements highlight the key considerations in power system planning. Firstly,
electrical load and energy forecasting methods are crucial for estimating future electricity
demand and generation. secondly, technical aspects such as system reliability, grid stability, and
transmission capacity must be considered to ensure the smooth operation of the power system.

The following factors make these considerations important:


Technical Considerations: The planning of power systems necessitates a
thorough comprehension of the technical facets involved in the production,
transmission, and distribution of electrical power.
Cost and Economic Issues: To ensure an economically viable and sustainable
power system, planners must strike a balance between the upfront
investment costs and the long-term operating and maintenance costs.
Geographical Locations of Energy Resources: Power system planning is
greatly impacted by the geographic locations and availability of energy
resources, such as fossil fuel reserves or renewable energy potential.
Planners must evaluate these resources' viability and feasibility in light of
accessibility, extraction costs, and environmental effects, among other
considerations.
Distances Involved in Power Transmission: Transmission losses and higher
expenses may arise from long transmission distances. In order to minimize
losses and guarantee dependable power delivery to load centers, planners
must take into account variables such as transmission line routing, voltage
levels, and grid infrastructure.

B. The fundamental method followed in power system planning to combine cost issues and
technical parameters involves mathematical formulations to optimize the system's
performance while considering economic constraints. This process is often referred to as
economic dispatch or optimal power flow. It aims to determine the optimal allocation of
generation resources and power flows in the system to minimize costs while meeting the
demand and technical constraints.

 Mathematically, the economic dispatch problem can be formulated as an


optimization problem, typically a linear programming (LP) or mixed-integer
linear programming (MILP) problem. The objective function seeks to
minimize the total generation cost, which includes the fuel costs, variable
operating costs, and possibly other factors like emissions costs or renewable
energy incentives.
 The technical constraints incorporated in the formulation include power
balance (generation equal to demand), transmission line limits, voltage
limits, and generator operating limits (such as maximum and minimum
power output, ramping rates, and startup/shutdown costs).

C. Reliability refers to the ability of the power system to deliver electricity continuously
and without interruptions. Power system quality relates to factors such as voltage
stability, frequency control, and power factor. To include issues of reliability and power
system quality in the planning process, various approaches can be taken:

 Adequate reserve capacity: Sufficient reserve capacity should be planned to


handle unexpected contingencies, such as equipment failures or sudden
changes in demand. This ensures that the system can continue to supply
electricity even in unforeseen situations.
 Grid reinforcement: The planning process should assess the need for
upgrading and reinforcing the transmission and distribution infrastructure to
improve reliability and power system quality.
 Voltage and frequency control: Voltage stability and frequency control are
critical for maintaining power system quality. The planning process should
consider the installation of reactive power compensation devices, such as
capacitors and voltage regulators, to keep voltages within acceptable limits.
 Grid connectivity and redundancy: The planning process should
consider the interconnection of different power sources and the
establishment of redundant paths to enhance system reliability.

Q6. For the first question:

1. Draw the daily load curve:


To draw the daily load curve, you can plot the time in hours on the x-axis and the load in
MW on the y-axis. Connect the data points to form a curve. Here's a graphical
representation of the daily load curve:
2. Determine the maximum demand:

The maximum demand is the highest value of load observed. In this case, the maximum
demand is 70 MW.

3. Determine the average load:

To calculate the average load, you need to sum up all the loads and divide by the
number of time intervals. In this case, there are 8 time intervals.

=(30×2)+(40×3)+(5×50)+(35×3)+(70×3)+(55×2)+(20×6)(1×65)

=995MWh
Average load = Units generated / day
=995MWh/24hour
=41.46MW
Determine the load factor:

The load factor is the ratio of the average load to the maximum demand.

Load factor = (Average load / Maximum demand) * 100


4. Load factor = Average load/maximum load
=41.46 MW/70
=0.5923
5. Draw the load duration curve:

The load duration curve shows the duration of time (in hours) at each load level,
arranged in descending order. Here's a representation of the load duration curve based
on the given data:

NUMERICAL

For the second question:

1. Calculate the yearly load factor:


To calculate the yearly load factor, divide the total energy generated in the year (in
MWh) by the product of the installed capacity (maximum demand) and the number of
hours in a year (8760 hours).

Yearly load factor = (Total energy generated / (Installed capacity * Number of hours
in a year)) * 100
Total energy generated = 350 GWh = 350,000 MWh
Installed capacity = 110 MW
Number of hours in a year = 8760 hours

Yearly load factor = (350,000 / (110 * 8760)) * 100 = 36.3%.

2. Calculate the diversity factor:

The diversity factor is the ratio of the sum of maximum demands of individual loads
to the maximum demand on the power station.

Sum of maximum demands of individual loads = 100 MW (Industries) + 15 MW


(Domestic) + 12 MW (Commercial) + 20 MW (Agriculture) = 147 MW

Diversity factor = Sum of maximum demands of individual loads / Maximum demand


on the power station

Diversity factor = 147 MW / 110 MW = 1.34.

Mathematical Problem

To solve the given problem, we'll perform the following steps:

Step 1: Calculate the average hourly loads.

Time Meter reading Load (kWhr)= (present reading-previous reading) *meter constant

And MW=kwhr/ (1000*hour duration)


Step 2: Plot the average hourly chronological and load duration curves.
And for the load duration curve:
Step 3: Plot the load-energy curve for the average hourly loads.
Step 4: Find the load factor based on the average hourly peak.

𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑


𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠

870
=
24

= 36.25

𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦


𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 =
𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦

36.25
=
70

= 0.5178

= 51.78%
Step 5: Calculate the load factor if the instantaneous peak is 85 MW.

Step 6: Calculate the utilization factor and capacity factor of the plant.

maximum load
Utilization factor=
𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦

THE END!!!

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