Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 73 (2017) 95–114

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/rser

Energy model – A tool for preventing energy dysfunction MARK

⁎
Priyanka Laha, Basab Chakraborty
Rajendra Mishra School of Engineering Entrepreneurship, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, India

A R T I C L E I N F O A BS T RAC T

Keywords: Energy model, a systematic data-intensive multi-objective framework replicating the energy sector of the
Energy model country or globe, constitutes of energy resource supply, energy consumption sector-by-sector, energy
Climate change transformation technologies, greenhouse gas emission and energy pricing. Considering the atypical weather
Energy crisis pattern yearly and geographical diversity, the challenges and benefits of designing an energy model have been
Low carbon economy
summarized. The paper has documented the tremendous jeopardy of drastic climate change, energy crisis on the
Renewable energy
Global warming
global economy, requirement for transition to low carbon economy and rural electrification which have been
Greenhouse gas impetus for the evolution of legitimate energy model. Special emphasis has been provided on the types of energy
models that have been developed and practiced throughout the world followed by a comparative analysis of a
few. The requirement to configure a unique energy model in India followed by certain recommendations has
been proposed in this paper.

1. Introduction The developing countries which are withstanding the environmen-

tal issues seem to be highly dependent on conventional energy sources
The world is progressively functioning towards making certain like coal, petroleum contributing to about 90% of the net energy
rudimental transformations obligatory to perpetuate the energy de- resources [6]. This use of non-renewable energy resources has led to
mand-supply balance. Studying the energy scenarios which encompass soil infertility, deforestation and increase in greenhouse gas effect [7].
an array of energy supply potentials along with a mixture of techno- To model an efficient energy system one needs to have sufficient
logical amalgamation and their outputs provides a platform to con- information about its main parameters which define that particular
ceptualize future energy outlook [1]. Literature unfolds various scenar- energy system and also distinctly outline the interrelationships among
ios demonstrating the outcome of energy system advancement. In the the parameters [8]. With the escalation in industry- telecommunica-
past, researchers have mostly projected energy scenarios as normative tion, automobiles, computer technology- the lifestyle of people have
but World Energy Council has proposed an entirely new exploratory upgraded which leads to more consumption of energy. The growth in
method [2]. The meaning of the term normative is that the scenarios population further adds to the increase in energy consumption, which
force the world to proceed towards a precise aim like for instance a has progressively increased over the years [9]. This has led to
particular percentage of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Contrary to exponential increase in energy demand which cannot be certainly
the normative scenario, the exploratory scenarios, that is, Jazz and achieved by the non-renewable energy technology only. The research-
Symphony of World Energy Council equips the researcher or policy ers and energy policy makers are striving to develop energy models for
maker with an unbiased device that can compute its latent eventuality proficient energy demand prediction, proper utilization and optimiza-
in future. According to the estimated trends in global energy use, tion of available energy resources [10].
percentage of emitted carbon dioxide would increase by 1.7% per year This paper has been structured to give a detailed review of the
till 2030, reaching approximately about 38 billion tones in 2030 [3]. various types of energy models that have been meticulously designed
This surge in the emitted carbon dioxide leads to global warming by the research organizations, national institutes and international
causing climate change [4]. The researchers and the policy makers are community so as to curtail greenhouse gas emission, prevent global
diligent to develop a low carbon economy and model carbon dioxide warming and climate change, maintain energy demand- supply balance
emission reduction policy which has lot of significance in the present across numerous sectors in short, mid and long term period [11,12].
energy trends. The world is progressing towards self-sustainability by
future development of technologies, reduction of carbon dioxide and
upgrading supply energy efficiency [5].

⁎
Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: [email protected] (P. Laha), [email protected] (B. Chakraborty).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.01.106
Received 4 April 2016; Received in revised form 18 November 2016; Accepted 16 January 2017
Available online 25 January 2017
1364-0321/ © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
P. Laha, B. Chakraborty Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 73 (2017) 95–114

Nomenclature MAED Model for Analysis of Energy Demand

MARKAL MARKal Allocation
AIM Asia-Pacific Integrated Model MERGE Model for Estimating the Regional and Global Effects
BUENAS Bottom-Up Energy Analysis System MESSAGE Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their
CIMS Canadian Integrated Modelling System General Environmental Impact
DIMENSION Dispatch and Investment model MURE Mesuresd’ Utilization Rationnelle de l’Energie
EEO Energy Economy Optimization NEMS National Energy Modelling System
EFOM Energy Flow Optimization Model NIA National Impact Analysis
ETSAP Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program PAGE Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect
FUND Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and PAMS Policy Analysis Modelling System
Distribution PET Pan European TIMES
GCAM Global Change Assessment Model POLES Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems
GEM–E3 General Equilibrium Model for Economy, Energy, REEPS Residential End-use Energy Planning System
Environment REOM Renewable Energy Optimization Model
GEMINI-E3 General Equilibrium Model of International-National RICE Regional Integrated model of Climate and Economy
Interactions between Economy, Energy and SFE Supply Function Equilibrium
Environment TEMOA Tools for Energy Model Optimization and Analysis
GTAP-E Global Trade Analysis Project Energy substitution TIAM TIMES Integrated Assessment Model
GTEM Global Trade and Environmental Model TIMES The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System
IMAGE Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment WEM World Energy Model
LEAP Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning WITCH World Induced Technical Change Hybrid model

2. Objective 4. Benefits and challenges in energy modelling

The proliferation of research papers on energy models has pro- 4.1. Benefits of energy models
pounded divergent spectrum for the estimation of its dynamics ranging
from the methodological approaches to the choice of specifications • Reduces complexity
along with the multiple underlying features and their interactions. In • Provide information for sustainable growth
this line of reasoning, the objective of this paper is to give a review of • Aids to design a least cost of energy system
energy models; describing their fundamental concepts and application • Predicts the country's net demand of energy
both in developed as well as in developing nations. Additionally, the • Help to calculate required amount of energy to be imported
benefits, challenges and need for energy model have been documented • Exhibit hourly and seasonal variations of energy demand and supply
in this paper. A comparative survey of fifteen energy models has been • Explore the different energy choices
presented to illustrate their application depending upon their varied • Provides energy savings quantification
methodologies and assumptions. The core purpose is to reflect the • Predict energy costs in advance in order to implement strategies
importance of energy modelling. Given the pertinence of energy in
terms of global inflation, it is of significance to frame an energy model 4.2. Challenges in energy modelling
which is necessitous for a developing nation like India. This paper aims
in illustrating the prevailing condition of Indian energy sector, the • Integrating different types of energy systems
significant factors to be considered for developing an energy model for • Designing energy model for a long term horizon
Indian perspective along with certain prescription for solving the • Setting the correct energy price
energy trilemma. • Improving tariff plan
• Making use of sustainable technologies primarily
3. Background • Implementing integrated planning resources

Energy models have been predominantly developed to predict and 5. Need for energy model
plan future scenarios and to understand the energy system at regional,
national or global level. The policy and planning needs importunate the Energy models are streamlined manifestation of real world systems.
development of a range of energy models differing in intricacy, starting Models are suitable tools that are implemented in location or condition
from accounting models to pragmatic computer aided models with where conducting experiments in the real world are not viable,
feedback mechanism designed for representing social behavioral func- impracticable or too costly [16]. Energy models have constructive
tionalities. Literature talks about two conflicting perspectives of perceiving use, as they represent complex system used to execute exhaustive
an energy model. One may build an energy model to describe the working analysis and computation. The hypotheses that outline the base of the
of the system, calculate measurements within a fixed time horizon, and for models must be clearly identified, so that they can be reviewed and
forecasting with an acceptable level of certainty. The other way to look analysed [17]. The investors and policy makers conduct test for risk
onto an energy model is to enable decision making and legitimize policies. strategy and sensitivity analysis using these energy models.
The 1973 oil crisis has been marked as a crucial year in the history of
energy modelling [13,14]. This sudden major change in oil price, changing 5.1. Climate change and energy crisis
environmental policies and volatile energy prices have made energy
modelers to use modelling as a tool to deal with this muddled situation. Climate change has become a topic of concern of innumerable
The current energy paradigm cannot be considered a zero-sum game. The researchers. The term climate change includes both the change in usual
energy economy is not an assemblage of distinct sectors that can be weather condition as well as sudden drastic change in climatic
deployed disjointedly. Fig. 1 [15] lends a simple structure of an energy conditions. Human activities play a major role in the observed climate
system model. change throughout the world (given in Table 1). Emission of green-

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P. Laha, B. Chakraborty Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 73 (2017) 95–114

Macro-economy: Domestic and International

Energy supply Market equilibrium Energy demand

• Coal • Oil Import • Residential
• Petroleum Regulation • Commercial
• Natural gas • Natural Gas • Transport
• Nuclear Regulation • Industrial
• Solar • Electricity
Regulation
• Wind
• Environmental
• Hydro
Regulation (Oil,
• Biomass Coal, Petroleum,
Nuclear)
• Policy Regulation
(Nuclear)

Technical Change, Exogenous Technical Change

Changes in Environment Regulations, Exogenous Changes in Reserves

Fig. 1. Components of a simple energy system model [14].

house gases including CO2, CH4, CFCs, NOx, ozone and peroxyacetyl- able development with the help of energy modelling is a key challenge
nitrate prevent radiation of heat from the earth's surface thereby to all researchers.
increasing its surface temperature. Scientific reports reveal that the
rate of warming over last 50 years (0.13 °C ± 0.03 °C per decade) is
nearly twice that for the last 100 years, 1.8 mm per year rise in sea
5.2. Transition to a low carbon society
level, and shrinking of Arctic sea ice at the rate of 2.7% per decade.
Climate change is also leading to melting of mountain glaciers,
Recent studies bespeak that most of the observed global change in
acidification of sea water, severe weather events, extreme heat waves,
climate system is due to human activities and the best practice to abate
environmental degradation, and changes in vector ecology, degradation
climate change significantly is to move towards zero emissions. Fig. 2
of quality of water, enteric diarrheal diseases and malnutrition.
[20] depicts the potential effects of climate change.
Energy crisis is of growing concern today as the conventional
The low carbon society aims towards a decarbonized economy by
resources of energy are getting depleted with the rise in demand of
restructuring the present energy systems thereby reducing the amount
electricity. Overconsumption of energy resources like fossil fuel,
of heat-trapping emissions in all sectors including manufacturing,
rampant growth in population, poor infrastructure of power generating
agriculture, transportation and power-generation- and shifting to a
and distribution system, use of energy inefficient devices are some of
higher quality life than those based on urban sprawl [21]. Surveying
the cause behind energy crisis. With increasing world population, the
the copious literature, it is evident that the principles of low carbon
fossil fuel is not only getting depleted, but also is leading to the rise in
society are consistent with the twin challenges of sustainable develop-
carbon footprint. Carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has
ment- emphasizing economic growth and development to meet the
undergone a forty percent increase from 278 ppm in 1750–401.62 ppm
needs of all groups within the society without undermining the
in 2016 which accounts for an average of 2.3% rise per year. Global
ecological objectives along with stabilizing the atmospheric concentra-
emissions of carbon dioxide from the energy sector have been 32.3
tion of greenhouse gases through carbon pricing and/or emissions
billion tonnes in 2014 where emissions from industry amounted to
trading. The inextricable linkage between climate and economic
about 37%. Researchers have projected that the developing countries
development can be addressed by adopting consumption patterns
with rising energy demand would contribute to about half of total
and lifestyle decisions that are consistent with low levels of carbon
carbon dioxide emission, that is, by the year 2020 OECD countries
footprint [22]. The transition to low carbon society requires radical
would emit 14,476 million tons of CO2, China 7081 million tons of CO2,
restructuring of energy technologies, generation and consumption
Transition economic 4465 million tons of CO2 and the rest of the world
patterns, social lifestyles [23] paving the way to a balanced energy
11,163 million tons of CO2. Table 2 provides a list stating the amount of
trilemma constituting of energy equity, energy security and environ-
carbon dioxide emitted due to consumption of fuels like gasoline, liquid
mental sustainability. The low carbon society and energy linkage can be
petroleum gas and diesel.
elucidated through the following equation following Kaya identity [24]
Tackling global climate change and energy crisis through sustain-
where emission € can be represented as:

Table 1
Role of different substances in the greenhouse effect [18].

Substance Ability to retain Pre-industrial Present Atmospheric Annual Share in the Contribution of human
infrared radiation Atmospheric concentration (ppm) growth greenhouse effect due activities in greenhouse
relative to CO2 concentration (2016) (ppm/year) to human activities (%) gas emission (%)
(ppm) (1750)

CO2 1 278 401.62 3.01 71 50 ± 5

CH4 25 0.75 1.8434 0.0123 8 60%
N2O 250 0.27 0.327 0.2 18 9 ± 2

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P. Laha, B. Chakraborty Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 73 (2017) 95–114

Table 2 infrastructure [28]. Fig. 4 [27] illustrates regional diversity in energy

Typical CO2 emissions per volume of fuel consumed [19]. supply in developing countries.
Fuel Type CO2 Emissions kg/l CO2 Emissions Lbs/
of Fuel Gallon of Fuel 6. Types of energy models

Gasoline/Petrol 2.3 19.4

Energy models can be systematically categorized using a number of
Liquid Petroleum Gas 1.6 12.7
(LPG) criteria. Nicole [29] postulate the first energy model classification
Diesel 2.7 22.2 followed by a number of researchers [30–38]. Initially three modelling
categories encompassing the optimization models, equilibrium models
and simulation models have been identified. Later two additional
€= ( Emission
PrimaryEnergyConsumption
) ( ×
PrimaryEnergyConsumption
GDP
) variety of energy models- top-down and bottom-up models- have been
labelled wherein input output model, equilibrium model and compu-
table general equilibrium model have been considered as a subtype of
× ( GDP
Population
) × Population top-down energy model, and the optimization and simulation models
are subset of bottom-up energy model.
The first and second terms of the above equation – depend on This paper provides a comprehensive literature survey on energy
energy supply and use which pose maximum intervention potential to models which have classified based on eight different categories: the
formulate low carbon society. The complexity of low carbon society can purpose of constructing the energy model, the analytical method
be understood through the design of energy model. Energy model employed for the model, different methodology incorporated while
provides a systematic approach to study the linkages among the energy designing these models, mathematical approaches implemented, topo-
resource supply and the final consumption, analyse the factors behind graphical area the energy model covers, sector for which the energy
energy technology diffusion, provide prediction and support decision- model has been constructed specifically for, the time frame of the
making in developing low carbon society. Fig. 3 [13,25] depicts a energy model analysis and the type of data required. Following figure
carbonless energy system in which fossil fuel, nuclear, and renewable (Fig. 5) portrays a list of energy models.
energy resources, along with hydrogen and electricity as energy carriers
have been used. 6.1. Based on purpose of modelling

5.3. Rural electrification Based on the purpose of designing the energy model (see Fig. 5(a)),
it can be categorized into General Purpose energy model which
Global electricity access is a humongous issue depriving 1.2 billion includes forecasting model, scenario analysis model and backcasting
people living in rural areas from electricity service. This is primarily in model, while Specific Purpose energy model encompasses impact
the regions of South Asia (418 million) and Sub-Saharan Africa (590 model, appraisal model and energy demand-supply model.
million). Access to modern energy services including LPG and elec-
tricity is imperative for acclivity of education level and income 6.1.1. General purpose energy model
generation in rural areas of the developing nations. Researchers have
concluded that electricity access is correlated with Human 6.1.1.1. Forecasting energy model. The forecasting model stands
Development Index as well [26]. Need for designing an energy model upon extrapolation of trends observed in past data hence the
for access to electricity in rural regions considering regional diversity is multidimensional growth parameters are fixed. It can be applied for
one of the major objectives of energy modelling today [27]. Preeminent studying short-term impacts and requires a very critical depiction of
challenges in designing such energy model can be summarized as: very economic behavior and general growth patterns of the energy demand
low per capita energy consumption level, electricity tariff is inordi- [39]. Its accuracy can be enhanced by desegregating quantitative and
nately low, spasmodic supply of electricity, transmission and distribu- qualitative methods [40]. Forecasting energy model can be sub-
tion losses, recurrent power failures and fragmentary conveyance categorized into Time series model, Regression model,

Fig. 2. Potential effects of climate change (Adopted from [20]).

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Fig. 3. Carbonless energy system adopted from [25].

Fig. 4. Regional differences in energy supply for electrification in developing countries [27].

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Fig. 5. Types of Energy Model.

Decomposition model, Cointegration model, ARIMA model, Artificial 6.1.1.2. Scenario analysis energy model. Scenario analysis energy
Neural Network model, Grey prediction model, Fuzzy logic model, model plays a vital role to analyse growth and reproduce future
Genetic algorithm model, autoregressive model and Support vector vision comparing the reference scenario with intervention scenarios
model [39] (see Fig. 5). without extrapolating past data. Assumptions are made about growth
in population, economic behavior, physical resource needs and
The Integrated Energy Planning Model is an example of forecasting technical progress. Sensitivity analysis is very important to validate
energy model which is based on the economy and technological progress such assumptions. It necessitates fabrication of model starting from
[41]. Coarse model projected by Filik et al. [42] forecast the demand of initial stages of micro-level parameters [63]. Kikuchi et al. [63] have
electricity for every hour, per week as well as for the entire year. projected energy flow model for scenarios analysis of future Japanese
Farahbakhsh et al. [43] and Sharma et al. [44] have implemented energy systems including all the feasible technology options. Masui
statistical methodology based regression analysis to forecast demand for et al. [64] have postulated Asia–Pacific integrated model for studying
gas, oil power, natural, coal. O’Neill and Desai [45] have scrutinized global and regional emission scenarios. Jia et al. [65] have designed the
efficiency of medium-term projections of US energy consumption. Tunc China TIMES model by amalgamation of TIMES model and energy
et al. [46] have forecasted net consumption of electricity in Turkey by service demand projection model of China followed by energy scenario
framing linear regression model including total population and consump- analysis so as to strategize growth of environment and energy for
tion rates of the individual as input parameters. A. Al-Ghandoor et al. [47] sustainable future in China. IPAT model, postulated by Ehrlich and
have incorporated multivariate regression based empirical model to Holdren in 1970s, has been employed by Di et al. [66] for evaluation of
predict industrial sector electricity demand. Jónsson et al. [48] have the scenarios of demand of primary energy and rate of discharge of
forecasted wind energy using non parametric regression model. Gonzales carbon dioxide in China. Wang et al. [67] have applied LEAP, the
et al. [49] have forecasted energy generation and consumption in software devised by Stockholm Environment Institute to inspect the
Asturias-Northern Spain. Primary energy demand has been forecasted interrelationship between environment and energy and alleviate
in Turkey through semi statistical cyclic pattern by Ediger et al. [50]. carbon dioxide emissions. This research group has considered three
Every sector of United Kingdom has been considered for analysis of diversifying scenarios of carbon dioxide emission for the steel industry
demand of energy with help of time series method by Hunt et al. [51]. sector in China within the time frame of 2000–2030. Zhou et al. [68]
Kumar et al. [52] have forecasted natural gas consumption using singular have implemented Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning model to
spectral analysis for natural gas consumption. Hagan et al. [53], Fan et al. evaluate the growth required in China for a decarbonized economy by
[54], Amjady et al. [55], Nogales et al. [56] have projected hourly and considering three scenarios encompassing the pattern of energy
weekly forecast of temperature, humidity and energy consumption. demand and greenhouse gas emission in China. Yamamoto et al. [69]
Researchers who have worked on medium term load forecast are namely have integrated global land use and energy model to study the supply of
Abdel-Aal and Al-Garni [57], while researchers working on long term bioenergy, alterations in land usage and carbon dioxide emission
forecast include Barakat [58], Wills and Tram [59]. Trend extraction globally. Turton [70] has tried to form a network between bottom-up
analysis has inspected electric energy consumption in Spain [60]. and top-down models conjoining a purchaser budget transportation
Himanshu [61] and Amarawickrama [62] have implemented time series demand model with that of an energy demand model. He has framed
prediction for calculation of electricity demand for Sri Lanka. ECLIPSE- Energy and Climate Policy and Scenario Evaluation model—

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P. Laha, B. Chakraborty Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 73 (2017) 95–114

to examine energy along with climate change policy and undertakes complete economy of the country and considers demand as an objective
scenario. function that varies due change in price of energy, population and
income of the selected area [78].
The energy supply model concentrates on the technical character-
6.1.1.3. Backcasting energy model. Backcasting energy model details istics featured in energy systems and tests whether the balance between
the likely result of implementing new policies [71]. It fixes a particular supply and demand can be preserved [79,80]. In addition, supply
preferred future end-point which is the desired result and begins its models may employ a least-cost method to include financial aspects as
calculation from that point and proceeds backward up to the present well [81,82].
date [72] (see Fig. 6). It creates visions of future through experts’ Fang [83] has designed energy supply and demand model for a
consultation to meet the needs of future. It may act like an analytical village in China wherein the objective has been to lower the cost of
tool for determining reliability of renewable energy sources [73]. energy supply and provide the paramount energy-supply configuration.
Sustainable Technological Development, Dutch interdepartmental Kanamura [84] has tested the volatility of natural gas prices in United
research program employs backcasting model to investigate future States incorporating this model. Kim et al. [85] have used the model to
requisite [74]. test the effect of new energy policies on the existing energy system in
Republic of Korea. Gruber et al. [86] have implemented the model to
estimate energy consumption and cost of supply in multiple buildings
6.1.2. Special purpose energy model in Spain. Farzaneh et al. [87] have endeavored to evaluate optimal
performance of urban energy systems and then select the city of Delhi
6.1.2.1. Impact energy model. The Impact energy model (see Fig. 7) to examine its electricity crisis using the model.
considers parameters such as changes in economic or financial
condition, transformation in societal condition (employment or 6.1.2.4. Emission reduction model. Emission reduction model
monetary situation), or variation in environmental or health evaluates the proficiency of energy system by calculating the energy
condition including solid and liquid waste and emission. The demand; carbon dioxide emitted over its lifespan and projects the
function of such models is to calculate the impact of inclusion of means to demolish it after its lifetime. This model has been developed
aforesaid parameters. to improve the effectiveness of energy devices and reduce energy
utilization rate considering constraints like climate, land uses, and
natural environment [88]. Energy-efficient transfer infrastructures,
Energy Impact Model [75] evaluates growth of a company in six
carbon footprint reduction, financial assistance to renewable energy
different sections: Governance, Environment, Infrastructure, Social,
are some of the vital factors considered to construct this model. It
Finance and Employees. It categorically identifies focus areas for each
calculates the energy savings due to increase in energy efficiency and
section after which a set of action within 100-day span or long term
effect of energy demand management on electricity generation. It has
value creation plan has to be undertaken. Jobs and Economic
been used to outline the energy scheduling results for finding the
Development Impact model have estimated economic impacts of
optimum generation pattern of electricity to expand the implemented
developing and effecting power generation and biofuel plants at state
energy policies.
level [76].

6.1.2.2. Appraisal energy model. The appraisal energy model

evaluates one option (for example, solar energy resource) against 6.2. Based on analytical method
several other given options (like conventional resources) and
appraises the selected one. Its function is to test the appraised The bottom–up, top–down energy and hybrid energy model (see
selection to prevent repercussion [77]. The model tries to compare Fig. 5(b)) have been grouped under the analytical energy model. These
the impact of each option and then appraise depending on some pre- models study the linkages between the economy and the energy system
determined conditions; efficiency being the most universally used representing technology in a fundamentally different way.
criteria.
6.2.1. Top-down and bottom-up energy model
The top-down and bottom-up energy models procreate different
6.1.2.3. Energy demand and supply model. From the capacious output for the same defined problem. Bottom-up (Fig. 8a) and top-
literature on energy models it has been evident that a group of down models (Fig. 8b) treat their individual protocol comprising of
researchers have focused purely on energy demand model, few factors such as decision-making behavior of economic agents, technol-
specifically modeled the energy supply and some have endeavored to ogies adoption, market operation over a particular time span, differ-
model and analyse the energy demand as well as the supply side. ently [89]. Table 3 provides the differences in top-down and bottom-up
energy models.
The energy demand model focuses on a particular sector or the
6.2.2. Hybrid analytical energy model
Future Staate Hybrid analytical energy modelling that aims at combining the
(Desired Outtput) technology of bottom-up models with the top-down models can be
generally classified into three categories [93].

Backcastin
ng • First category combines top-down and bottom-up models [94–97].
Method • Second category embodies one model form adjunct by abridged
version of other type of model [98–102].
• Last category intermixes bottom-up and top-down features abiding
Baseline Sttate by the conditions of market equilibrium models in the form of mixed
complementarity problems [103,104].

Fig. 6. Backcasting Model. Dirkse and Ferris [105] have proposed the potent solvers for mixed

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P. Laha, B. Chakraborty Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 73 (2017) 95–114

optimisstic
estimaates
Change in
n
Economyy engineering
approaach
descriptiion of
technology iin depth

use disaggreggated data

Increase in Health
Employement Condition do not
n rely on maarket behavior

technological options cosst considered d

directly
Impact Model
c
considered enerrgy sector indeependent of otther sectors

Environmentaal
GHG Emiission economic
Variation

assumes no discontinuiity in past tren

nds

Fig. 7. Impact Energy Model. no explicit repressentation of

technoloogy
complementarity problems which enhanced the incorporation of
use aggregateed data
hybrid energy to examine energy regulation policies [106,107]. One
major advantage of mixed complementarity problem is that it enables observed mmarket
behavior reccorded
to agglomerate both technological and economic specifications in one
no stress on
mathematical design [108,109]. efficienccy
improvem ment
6.3. Based on type of methodology pessimistic
outputt

Depending on the type of methodology implemented to design the b

energy model, it can be classified into Econometric, Macro-economic,
Economic equilibrium, Optimization, Simulation, Spreadsheet and Fig. 8. a. Bottom-up energy model diagram, b. Top-down energy model diagram.
Multi-criteria models [29,89–91]. With recent development in energy
modelling, additional types of energy model like input-output, system stances permitting for concurrent equilibrium in all energy sectors, and
dynamic, integrated assessment, computable general equilibrium and provide feedback between specific sectors [113]. Economic equilibrium
partial equilibrium model can be collated to this category. Fig. 1(c) models do not analytically speculate econometric equations but rather
depicts the type of energy models based on the methodology imple- simulate very long-span growth paths to assure stability of parameters.
mented to build the model. It targets medium to long term effect of energy technologies. To have
necessary knowledge regarding transition costs of technologies which
6.3.1. Econometric energy model could affect the equilibrium may not be always available; thus drawing
Econometric energy model solves economic intricacy by employing a limitation to the model designing.
mathematical tools and statistical methods. Statistical approach is
incorporated to extrapolate historical aggregated market performance 6.3.4. Optimization energy model
data and scrutinize economy-energy interrelations (Fig. 9). Optimization energy model (see Fig. 11) identifies the most
Econometric methods aid to unravel macro-economic challenges. The favorable set of technology to accomplish a defined target at reduced
operating technologies are explicitly depicted in the model. High data costs under particular constraints keeping demand requirement con-
requirement can be dealt by knowledgeable econometricians. stant [114]. The objective function is usually a maximization function
Researchers have implemented aggregated time series data for econo- (for instance, electricity generation) or a minimization function (for
metric energy modelling. Multi-country analysis becomes difficult due instance, cost of production). The unremitting progress in the field of
to data accessibility [110]. computer hardware and software has permitted the researchers to
decipher optimization problems incorporating computational re-
6.3.2. Macro-economic energy model sources [115]. Combinatorial optimization is a branch of optimization
Christopher Sims has projected that in macroeconomics not much having functions with discrete variables [116]. Particle swarm optimi-
of analysis can be carried out to generate fundamental data [111], so zation is another form of optimization model that minimizes error
the researchers have been vehemently trying to make progress in associated with predictable model variables [117]. Some researchers
experimental macroeconomics. It has used data like gross domestic have incorporated multi-objective optimization model to maximize the
product (GDP) and its components. Being based on neo-Keynesian renewable system contribution to the peak load, while minimizing the
perception, it concentrates on entire financial condition of a society intermittence supply of renewable power at the least cost [118]. Bazmi
along with its interface with the other sectors (Fig. 10). Factors like and Zahedi [119] have projected an extensive report on the infra-
inter-temporal choice and long-term anticipation of the population are structural development of electricity sector implementing optimization
not considered while designing the model thus resulting in unrealistic model. Shortcomings of optimization model:
depiction of the technical transformation [112].
1. Application restricted to conditions where discrete energy transfor-
6.3.3. Economic equilibrium energy model mation takes place, in specific energy sector
Economic equilibrium energy model peripheries on the circum- 2. Knowledge about development phase cost and operational cost

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Table 3
Comparison between top-down and bottom-up energy models.

Top –down Energy Model Bottom –up Energy Model

• Economy on national or regional level considered with cumulative effect of energy change
policies in fiscal units
• Aggregated view of economy and energy sectors to replicate economic
development, energy demand and supply balance
• Relates to economic model [90,91] that does not explicitly mention all technologies • Can be linked with engineering model [90,91]
• Technology treated as a black box • Resulting output, methodology opted, and expenditure for selected
• Based on performance assessment in market which may vary from actual technologies put to use technological options clearly depicted
• Tends to overlook constraints that are exiting in the market
• Utilize aggregated data to observe connections of the energy parameters with the non-energy
sector parameters
• Encircle around energy segment solely
• Applicable where past data trend similar to present data pattern of time of period to be tested
and interrelationships among attributes remained consistent [89]
• Appropriate when relationship between energy sector and rest of sectors
of nation is considered
• Stress more on degree of endogenization and detailing the components of economy other than
energy sector
• Resourceful for outlining the description of energy end-use and energy
supply technologies [92].

Econometric
Identiity
Past Recordded E
Estimations Foor Model Equatiions Output
Data S
Specified Timee Parameters
P
Horizon

Fig. 9. Econometric energy model diagram.

• Dynamic simulation model is one in which output of present period

Employemen
nt gets altered by growth in contrast to preceding periods.
•
Grross
Dom
mestic Principally applicatory where conducting experiment is exception-
Fiscall
Prodduct Budgeet ally expensive or unfeasible.
• Being adaptable can incorporate additional parameters to reflect
market failures and flaws
Energy
Resource Macrroeconomic
Techn
nologies The following (see Table 5) depicts the simulation energy models
Availability Model
developed and implemented by researchers in this field:

Fig. 10. Macro-economic energy model diagram. 6.3.6. Spreadsheet models

Spreadsheet models are constructed as extremely flexible model
Energy resembling a software package preordained for producing models [38].
aint
Constra
Resources,
acity,
on Capa OPPTIMIZE The framework of the model can be customized as per particular
Energy
Energgy D ENERGY
E demand- according to the World Bank [152]. From the literature
Demand,
Balance and M
MODEL
Technology survey it has been perceived that spreadsheet model is at times cited as
End-U
Use
Cost
another form of bottom-up model [38]. Example of Spreadsheet model
includes Transportation model energy utilization, CREST model (Cost
Fig. 11. Optimization energy model. of Renewable Energy Spreadsheet Tool) and GREET (Greenhouse
Gases, Regulated Emission) model.
obligatory for optimization.
3. For diversifying sectors, associated cost unavailability fails to
process output. 6.3.7. Multi-criteria energy model
4. Overlooks effect of combined heat and power generation The multi-criteria energy model encompasses more than one
criterion to construct the model apart from the economic efficiency
Table 4 represents a list of optimization energy models developed criterion. It endows the modeler to incorporate both qualitative and
till date. quantitative data analysis [153–155]. It may include tools like
ELECTRE, PROMETHEE, multi-attribute utility theory, analytic hier-
6.3.5. Simulation energy model archy process, multi-attribute value theory and data envelop analysis
With growing economy, the energy system has metamorphosed into [156]. Polatidis and Munda [157] have stated the criteria to choose
an exceedingly convoluted model; being highly interconnected. The specific tools available for multi-criteria modelling.
exact effects of implementing the energy policies may become difficult Sustainable and renewable implementation multi-criteria energy
to derive. Simulation can be one method to develop a clear perception model- SRIME [158] evaluates the effect renewable energy has on
of these interactions of the system components, thereby designing the health and education system in the rural regions of developing
energy policies more efficiently [136] (Fig. 12). Functions of simulation countries. Choudhary and Shankar [159] have incorporated fuzzy
model have been listed below: analytic hierarchy process to locate suitable Indian thermal power
plant site harnessing STEEP function (social, technical, economical,
• Replicates given system in a streamline coherent manner. environmental and political). Researchers have applied spatial data and
• Static simulator represents entire processing of the system in one multiple criteria to install wind farms in New York [160]. Multiple-
interval phase. criteria modelling has been implemented to locate solar-PV farms in
Oman [161].

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Table 4
List of optimization energy models.

Sl No. Model Name [Reference] Brief Details

1. MESSAGE [101] • Estimates energy production for 11 regions till year 2110.
• HFC
Takes into account effect of gases including NOx, N O, CO , CH , VOCs, SO , CO, PM, OC, BC NH , C F , CF , HFC
, HFC , HFC , HFC , and SF .
2 2 4 2 3 2 6 4 134a,

• Focuses
125 143a 227ea 245ca 6
2. MARKAL [120–126] on demand-supply energy technologies implemented.
• Identifies cost-effective retort for emission reduction, energy systems under diverse circumstances, to curtail greenhouse gas
emissions and approximate effects of taxes and financial assistance.
• Features comprise of energy demand projection within a particular location along with uncertainties related to it, receptiveness
to price alteration, cap-and-trade scheme, technological development within country
3. TIMES [127–129] • Employed for single-sector and entire energy market analysis
• decoupling
Features included- climate model, macroeconomic variables, tailored processes, process generalization, flexible timeframe,
of data
4. Multi-regional MARKAL
[130,131]
• Assesses policy and climate change effect on energy transformation with least-cost solution as objective function.
5. DIMENSION [132] • Framed as linear optimization model for medium and long time period to forecast for 13 Central and Western European
countries encompassing about 11 technologies for generation of electricity considering minimal costs for electricity generation,
simulates distribution of generated power and aids in overcoming the uncertainties in electricity supply side
6. REOM [133] • Analyses growth of biomass, wind and solar energy from the year 2009–2020 in China
7. TEMOA [134,135] • Energy system analysis implementing EEO model to reduce net system cost of energy supply by optimizing consumption and
operation of energy technologies over a specific time zone.
• Multi-objective optimization model incorporated to maximize renewable system contribution at peak load while minimizing
intermittence supply of renewable power at least cost

this model. Other factors considered include restriction to information

procured, cognitive limitations and bounded time for a decision-
maker. It permits uncertainties regarding price, future demand, and
quality of information [165].
The application of system dynamic model in energy sector started
Biomass Solar Wind
when researchers became apprehensive about the depletion of conven-
Energy Energy Energy tional resources, pollution, growing population and need for economic
development. The model has been designed to project the rise in
electricity price on a long term frame [166]. It has been applied to
study the dominance of electricity generator companies in energy
sectors and test the consequence of trading the electricity and gas in
the electricity market in Britain. Researchers have analysed pattern of
electricity consumption, electricity policy, modifying the capacity mix,
Time of Day minimizing oil imported and carbon dioxide emission for Pakistan
using system dynamic model [167]. Reforming electricity price after
speculating demand-supply of the electricity sector has been performed
with the help of system dynamic model [168].
Monte Carlo
6.3.9. Input output energy model
Simulation
The input output energy model comprises of an input–output table
which considers structural details of energy sector, inter-sector corre-
lation and technical growth in the country for analysis [169,170].
Energy can be expressed in terms of energetic unit or mass units where
Output the energetic unit depicts physical mechanism of energy systems and
the mass unit pertains to energy auditing, recording material flows and
estimation of carbon footprint [171]. The model helps in illustrating
Fig. 12. Simulation model diagram. financial activity and flow of raw materials in the energy sector. It can
be implemented to analyse environmental impacts [172]. Researchers
6.3.8. System dynamic energy model have employed input-output model to study the cause and effect of
Researchers have postulated that three “databases” caters the carbon dioxide emission [173]. It has been employed to analyse the
knowledge foundation required to configure a system dynamic model three cornerstones- energy, environment and economics – that contour
[162]. “Mental database” is the assemblage of intellectual impersona- today's electricity industry [174–176]. Literature unveils that input-
tion, that is, elemental database having chronographic advancement output model has been widely implemented to study the growth and
data and conjectures of potential methods adopted to resolve the consumption pattern of the country with special emphasis on the
problem. “Written database” is mostly records of mental models of prospective of peak oil [177–180]. Hybrid input output model has been
“mental database”. “Numerical database” contains all the causal developed to assess energy balance, GHG emissions and rate of
functions required to build the system dynamic modelling. High level employment in Brazil [181].
of intellectual proficiency is requisite to choose vital relationships to
model a nonlinear system [163]. Simulations are accomplished quan- 6.3.10. Integrated assessment model
titatively and causation being effectuated in the form of differential Integrated Assessment Model considers parameters including phy-
equations with stock and flow variables as input parameters [164]. sical and socio-economic information to analyse their interrelation and
Economic growth, population density and variation of electricity portray characteristics of financial, energy and climate models [182]. It
demand with variation in price are some of the factors considered by can be employed to interpret carbon emission impact on environment

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Table 5
List of simulation energy models.

Sl No. Author/ Model Name Brief Details, Reference

1. I. Otero-Novas et al. Maximizes profit of each firm that generates power considering their technical constraints affecting thermal and hydro-power
generating units. [137]
2. C. Day and D. Bunn It determines optimal supply functions which examines the prospective of Market Power in England and Wales. [138]
3. NEMS Residential Sector Demand Projects residential energy demand by service, fuel, and Census Division. [139]
Module
4. MURE Deals with energy efficiency policies and procedures approved by Member States of European Union and displayed in the form
of radar graph. [140]
5. WEM Replicates how energy markets function in medium to long-term energy projections; generating detailed sector-by-sector and
region-by-region output [141]
6. REEPS Predictive model for residential energy estimating result of adoption of energy conservation policies [142]
7. Game theory Reflects players’ on energy markets such as their strategic decisions which are integrated in energy transformation modelling of
market design and market power analysis. [143,144]
8. SFE To analyse behavior of electricity market. [145]

9. Bertrand and Cournot models Bertrand model deals with utilities that set prices and consumers that choose quantities for the set cost.
Cournot model compares the output that companies produce [146].
10. PAMS Examines benefits of standards adopted and recognize the best suited targets for appliance efficiency[147]
11. MAED Estimates energy demand in future considering population growth, technical developments ranging from medium to long term
scenarios [148]
12. BUENAS Calculates energy usage of electrical devices and building equipment [149]
13. LEAP Implemented for assessment of energy policy and climate change mitigation policy [150]
14. NIA Evaluates cumulative effect of national energy revenue and the fiscal impingement of consumers [151].

and calculate the cost-benefit of the projected climate change policy of electricity, CHP, gas, RES and biomass models. World Energy Model
the nation. Their design fabrication includes feedback loop between the is a partial equilibrium model that simulates energy demand-supply
economy and the environment. It can be categorized in two large and energy conversion. The POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term
groups- Policy Evaluation Integrated Assessment Model and Policy Energy Systems) model evaluates interdependence of energy, hi-tech
Evaluation Integrated Assessment Model (see Fig. 13). The former mechanization and drastic climatic changes on a long time horizon
model computes the optimal policy for carbon emission reductions in scale. 32 nations, 18 worldwide regions, 15 energy demand sectors and
future wherein the objective function is either based on maximization 40 technologies of hydrogen and power generation have been examined
of utility or minimization of cost. PAGE, MERGE, and RICE are by Poles to simulate balance between energy demand and supplied
examples of policy evaluation integrated assessment model. The later energy. Researcher Mahapatra [187] has designed “bottom-up” partial
model is based on definite policies representing a detailed structure of equilibrium model name ANSWER-MARKAL. Partial equilibrium
social and ecological trends. IMAGE, ETSAP-TIAM and AIM-are model has aided to survey the power sector of Germany and analyse
examples of policy evaluation integrated assessment model which tend the effect of the country's policies [188].
to replicate technological changes occurring in the energy system.
Table 6 [183] provides an overview of Integrated Assessment models 6.4. Based on mathematical approach
that have been designed specially to decode the climate change issues
Mathematical approach based energy models can be subdivided
6.3.11. Computable general equilibrium model into linear programming, dynamic programming and mixed integer
Computable general equilibrium energy model tests the results of programming (Fig. 1(d)).
energy policy implications on the country's economy presuming that all
markets are in ideal equilibrium state. These models take into 6.4.1. Linear programming model
consideration all manufacturing activities, rate of growth, national Linear programming model can be construed as a program which
income, unemployment, gross domestic product, inflation, price levels, either maximizes or minimizes a function linear in characteristic and
and government budget of the entire country. They are appropriate to provided with certain constraints which should be linear in nature. In
provide results for medium to long-term progress and structural this model all relationship equations are articulated in complete linear
responses to changes in policy. functions. If the input and output prices are provided, then this model
Devarajan [184] has reviewed energy computable general equili- can be implemented to calculate the most presumptive cost-effective
brium models and their applications. Naqvi [185] has worked with this output. This method can thus be employed only where variables are in
model to find interlink between economy, energy and equity in linear equalities or inequalities along with the provided linear criterion.
Pakistan. Despotakis and Fisher [186] have presented a model of Shortcoming of this approach is that the variables or equations which
energy for California economy. GEM-E3 model of European
Commission and GEMINI-E3 are examples of computable general
equilibrium energy model that has been modeled jointly by French Integrated
d
Atomic Energy Agency and the French Ministry of Equipment. Assessmennt
Model
6.3.12. Partial equilibrium model
Partial equilibrium model concentrates strictly on one sector of
economy by disjointing from rest of sectors of the country and includes
in depth technological details of the energy sector. Policy Optimization Policy Evaluattion
Integrateed Integrated
In European Union Member States, the renewable, energy effi- Assessment Model
M A
Assessment Mo odel
ciency policies and the carbon emission reduction strategies of 35
European countries have been studied using PRIMES which is a
modular system with 11 individual sub-models that focuses on Fig. 13. Types of integrated assessment model.

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Table 6
List of Integrated assessment models. Source:[183].

Model Forcing (0. Geographic Socioeconomic Geophysical Impact Treatment of Treatment of

CO2, 1. other specificity (0. dynamics (0. simulation (0. assessment (0. uncertainty (0. decision making (0.
GHG, 2. global, 1. exogenous, 1. Global ΔT, 1. 1D ΔT, 1. Sea level, none, 1. optimization, 1.
aerosols, 3. continental, 2. economics, 2. ΔT, ΔP, 2. 2D ΔT, 2. agriculture, 3. uncertainty, 2. simulation, 2.
landuse, 4. countries, 3. technology choice, 3. ΔP, 3. 2D ecosystems, 4. variability, 3. simulation with
other) grids/basins) land use, 4. climate) health, 5. water) stochasticity, 4. adaptive decisions)
demographic) cultural
Perspectives)

TARGETS 0,1,2,3,4 0 1,2,3,4 2 1,2,3,4 4 1,2

SLICE 0 1 1 0 0 1 2
RICE 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
ProCAM 0,1,2,3 2,3 1,2,3,4 2 0,2,3,5 1 1
PEF 0,1 1,2 1 0 0 2 1
PAGE 0,1 1,2 1 0 0,1,2,3,4 2 1
MIT 0,1,2,3 2,3 1 2,31 0,2,3 1 0,1
MiniCAM 0,1,2,3 2,3 1,2,3 2 0 0 1
MERGE 2.0 0,1 1 1,2 0 0 0 or 1 0
IMAGE 2.0 0,1,2,3 3 0,2,3 2 1,2,3 1 1
IIASA 0 0 1 1 2 0 0
ICAM-2 0,1,2,3 1,2 1,3,4 1,2 0,1,3 1,2,3 1,2
FUND 0,1 1 1,4 0 0,1,2,3,4 0 or 1 0
DICE 0 0 1 0 0 0 or 1 0
DIAM 0 0 1,2 0 0 0 or 1 0
CSERGE 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
CRAPS 0 0 1 0 0 1 2
Conneticut 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
CETA 0,1 0 1,2 0 0 0 or 1 0
AS/ExM 0 0 0 0 0 1 2
AIM 0,1,2,3 2,3 1,2,3,4 1,2 0,1,2,3,5 0 1

Table 7
List of mathematical models implemented in energy sector.

Sl No. Mathematical Model Type Brief Details, Reference

1. Linear Programming A linear programming model to investigate 76 systems for estimating best possible low-priced structure of the energy sector in
Australia during 1980–2020. [190]
2. Linear Programming Considered a sample size of 800 populations in North China to propose an optimization model based on energy demand-supply
function expressed in a linear form so as to forecast as well as analyse long-term variation of the system. [191]
3. Linear Programming Studied the relationship among ecosystem, energy and financial structure of Turkey. [192]
4. Linear Programming Studied the effects of various policy strategies adopted for rural energy system in during the period of 2000 A.D. [193]
5. Linear Programming Designed to curtail the principal investment cost along with the operational overheads for supply of energy and demand side
management in local Swedish electricity and national power system. [194]
6. Linear Programming Designed for generating maximum energy from the excess surplus biomass available in Nilakkottai in Tamil Nadu, India. [195]
7. Linear Programming To device a linear optimized method to enhance use of renewable energy sources. [196]
8. Linear Programming Has implemented linear programming to study the energy import resilience of an economy. [197]
9. Dynamic Programming Projected the utilization of dynamic programming in system expansion planning models. [198]
10. Dynamic Programming Reflected on the bidding predicament for a price taker in electricity pool market [199].
11. Mixed Integer Programming Reviewed mixed integer programming along with various other types of special programming models. [200]
12. Mixed Integer Programming Reproduced an integration of best probable energy technologies. [201]
13. Mixed Integer Programming Produced a study on the challenges encountered during energy scheduling for various sectors in India. [202]
14. Mixed Integer Programming Designed with multiple layers replicating a stairway model to calculate approximately the cumulative supply of energy crops in France.
[203]
15. Mixed Integer Programming Implemented to develop a decision model to enhance the sustainable utilization of energy in the local area. [204]
16. Mixed Integer Programming Modeled for energy management of a microgrid. [205]

may prove to be vital while making decisions may get curtailed to keep number of overlapping sub-problem. The optimal solutions to these
the linearity of the equations. The model being static in nature, does sub-problems would eventually give rise to the optimal solution of the
not consider any change or evolution of variables. Table 6 lists a entire problem. Table 6 represents dynamic programming models
number of linear programming models designed for energy planning, designed for energy modelling.
demand side management and reformation of energy pricing.

6.4.3. Mixed integer programming model

6.4.2. Dynamic programming model Mixed integer programming model entails a few of the decision
This is a prevailing method to solve a specific class of problem; a variables that are strictly integers. A 0–1 binary integer variable which
technique formerly developed by Richard Bellman in 1957 [189] which can be implied for yes no decision is a special category decision-making
demands a systematic formulation of the variables followed by coding. variable. It is observed that when integer variable is used it may
The concept of dynamic programming can be perceived by viewing the increase the complexity of optimization problem making it non-convex.
entire given problem as a set of sub-problems. In other words, if the As the number of integer variables gets multiplied the intricacy of the
entire problem can be disintegrated into smaller sub-problems which problem gets enhanced. Table 7 illustrates a number of mixed integer
can be further divided into even smaller ones, then this would yield a programming models designed for energy modelling.

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6.5.3. National energy model

Block Leveel The national model considers the world market conditions as
Decentralizeed external conditions and simulates all main sectors within a nation
Model concurrently. It takes into account the feedbacks and correlation
among the various segments of the economy. Examples: Econometric
V
Village Level Districtt Level models to test for short time span and general equilibrium models used
Deecentralized Decentrralized
for long time range analysis can be grouped under national models.
Model Mod del
6.5.4. Local energy model
Geographiccal The local model covers a portion within the country, that is, a
Coveragee subset of the national coverage. Local model is framed as a bottom-up
Model model using disaggregated data. Zhang et al. [206] have devised a
three-dimensional model for residential energy consumer in the UK.
Lemon et al. [207] have made use of local model of energy for
modelling low carbon transition.
Fig. 14. Types of Geographical Coverage Energy Model.
6.5.5. Project energy model
6.5. Based on geographical coverage The project model is an exceptional case with its core functioning
aimed at a specified location of the country. However, the location
Global energy models, regional energy models, national energy could be within the country or multinational. Project model woks with
models, local energy models and project energy models have been disaggregated data following the approach of bottom-up modelling.
considered as different energy models depending on the topographical
area the energy model covers (see Fig. 5e). Energy models that are 6.6. Based on sectoral coverage
classified based on geographical coverage, can be segregated as village
level decentralized energy planning model, block level decentralized This is a category of energy models which may be structured to
energy planning, and district level decentralized energy planning (see concentrate only on a specific sector like residential, commercial or
Fig. 14). The decentralized energy model is designed for energy industrial energy sector or may include a couple of sectors clustered
planning of a specific location for energy accessibility along with together or even the entire economy. It is typically required for
growth of renewable resources at minimum price to aid the financial studying energy distribution, consumption and growth among the
system as well as the ecosystem [88]. Literature has such models that various segments of the economy. Multi-sectoral models which cover
have been constructed and used globally (see Table 8). more than one sector primarily investigate issues at the regional,
national or the international level, thus knowledge about relations
6.5.1. Global energy model between these sectors is crucial. The models that are based on one
The global model depicts the condition such as energy demand- specific sector, no stress is given on the macro-economic interrelation-
supply, economy of the entire world. It makes use of aggregated data ship of all sectors of the country. Such single-sectoral models represent
for analysis and takes into record the main sectors and the correlation the rest of the other sectors in an extremely streamlined manner.
between the concerned sectors with that of the rest. Bottom-up models are mostly sector based, but the reverse does not
hold true.
6.5.2. Regional energy model
The regional model covers international regions such as UK, 6.7. Based on length of time frame
Europe, US. Like global model it makes use of aggregated data for
analysis. Energy models can be designed for analysis for short term, medium

Table 8
List of geographical coverage energy models.

Sl No. Geographical Coverage Model Brief Details, Reference

Type

1. Global Model A model has been developed by based on global energy scenarios to be used as a common method for energy system
modelling and planning. [208]
2. Global Model Survey has been conducted and GREEN- a global model has been developed for econometric approximation to reduce CO2
emission. [209]
3. Global Model MERGE model has been developed to assess the regional as well as global impact of the policies adopted to minimize the
emission of greenhouse gases [210].
4. Global Model GLUE (global land use and energy) has been modeled to estimate the CO2 emissions, productivity of bio energy along with
land use alterations in the world [211].
5. Global Model Develop scenario on the basis of various energy sectors: Carbon dioxide emission reduction, transport sector and power
sector modelling. [212]
6. Regional Model Model to find resources of energy and devices to aid in energy conversion in order to meet the energy demand for a particular
region. [213]
7. Regional Model The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) helps to optimize and envisage the requirement of United States
electricity generation and transmission systems. [214]
8. Regional Model The Regional Energy & Water Supply Scenarios -REWSS model is designed to test the results due to use or removal of
particular sources, or alteration in resources essential to accomplish particular changes in impacts. [215]
9. Regional Model TIMES-Canada, a multi-regional energy model embodies in details the large variety of regional energy systems on a long
term perspective. [216]
10. National Model Energy model which depicts energy sector in detail of Turkey over a period of 24 years incorporating mixed integer
programming model. [217]
11. National Model A detailed approach of symbolic linking of a macroeconomic model for a particular country. [218]

107
 Table 9
Comparisons of energy models. Source: [219].

Model Name Number Of Regions Geographical Time Model Type Focus Model Applications
Coverage Frame

CIMS Canada, USA, and China 2005– Top-down/ Bottom-up Energy modelling, analysis of energy policy To estimate the efficiency and economic impact of public
2030 policies for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions
P. Laha, B. Chakraborty

ETSAP-TIAM/ 15/16 World 2005– Bottom-up/ Optimization- Climate-change analysis, energy modelling, For evaluation and modelling of climate-change mitigation. It
2100 Integrated Assessment environmental targets, analysis of energy policy has been used for policy
TIAM-WORLD Model scenario analysis like Regional economic and
energy implications for attainment of global climate targets

FUND 16 World 1950– Integrated Assessment Climate change impact, cost-benefit analysis and For recommendation to policymakers about strategies
3000 Model cost-effectiveness analyses of policies for
greenhouse gas emission reduction
Model Name Number Of Regions Geographical Time Model Type Focus Model Applications
Coverage Frame

GCAM 14 World 1990– Integrated Assessment Energy modelling, environmental targets, In evaluation and modelling activities including U.S. Climate
2095 Model analysis of energy policy, Change Technology Program, IPCC assessment reports, U.S.
scenario analysis Climate Change Science Program, and Energy Modelling Forum
GEM-E3 21 W/24 E World and Europe CGE/Top-down Climate-change policies For microeconomic and macroeconomic level evaluation of
European and world climate-change policies
GEMINI-E3 28 World 2025/2050 CGE/Top-down Climate-change policies For microeconomic and macroeconomic level evaluation of
European and world climate-change policies
GTAP/GTAP-E 113 World 2004 (or CGE/Top-down Climate-change policies To evaluate energy and environmental problems
2007)

108
GTEM 13 World 1997– Top-down General Climate-change policies The assessment of impact of economic instruments and
2100 Equilibrium model technology economic on climate-change policy
LEAP World Europe Accounting framework Energy modelling, environmental targets, To assess energy scenarios, renewable and environmental goals
analysis of energy policy, scenario analysis
Model Name Number Of Regions Geographical Time Model Type Focus Model Applications
Coverage Frame

MERGE 9 World 2000– Integrated Assessment Climate-change policies To estimate effects of GHG reduction policies on regional and
2150 Model global basis

MESSAGE 11 World 1990– Bottom-up/ Energy modelling, environmental targets, Develop energy technology, strategies for carbon dioxide,
2060 Optimization analysis of energy policy, mitigation, sustainable development
scenario analysis

PET Iceland, Switzerland, Europe extended 2005– Bottom-up/ Energy modelling, environmental targets, For evaluating energy scenarios, environmental and renewable
EU27, Norway, 2050 Optimization analysis of energy policy, targets in COMET, Irish-TIMES, REALISEGRID, REACCESS,
and Six scenario analysis RES2020, NEEDS
Balkan Countries

POLES 18 World 2030 Econometric/ Top-down Energy modelling, environmental targets, For supporting WETO-H2 2050 report, World Energy
analysis of energy policy, Technology 2030 report and quantitative scenario analysis of
scenario analysis the World Energy Council.
Model Name Number Of Regions Geographical Time Model Type Focus Model Applications
Coverage Frame

PRIMES EU27, Norway, Europe extended 2000– Bottom-up/ Energy modelling, environmental targets, To estimate the set of policies and measure for European
Switzerland, South 2050 Top-down analysis of energy policy, Member states
east Europe scenario analysis
WITCH 12 World Top-down/ Integrated Climate-change analysis, energy modelling, For evaluation and modelling of climate-change mitigation
(continued on next page)
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 73 (2017) 95–114
P. Laha, B. Chakraborty Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 73 (2017) 95–114

term or long term time frame. Researchers have considered a time

frame of 10 years or more to be the long term energy model, within 3–
15 years for the medium term energy model and time span of 5 years or
less for the short term energy model [90]. This time frame is significant
as there is change in environmental processes, social conditions and
economy with change in time scales. With progress in energy model
designing, it has been observed that while configuring the model
structure and objectives accurately, time scale of the model has to be
very precisely defined for accurate results.

6.8. Based on type of data requirement

Model Applications

Data is a very integral part of modelling. Depending on the type of

data required for energy model, it can be quantitative, qualitative,
monetary, aggregated or disaggregated energy model (see Fig. 1(h)).
Some models necessitate quantitative data while some need monetary
data. Data requirement can be in aggregated or disaggregated form. In
some cases, data are not available or unpredictable in such situation
analysis has to be done with qualitative or ordinal data. Aggregated
environmental targets, analysis of energy policy

data with minimal technical specification are required for global and
national models.

7. Comparison of energy models

Researchers in every parts of the world have been devoting

considerable intellectual effort for designing effective energy models,
some of which have proved to be important in framing energy policy of
the country. Following Table 9 [219] illustrates the comparison of
different energy models depending on geographic factors, time horizon,
type of model and purpose considered for modelling.
Focus

8. Energy model for Indian perspective

Assessment Model / Bottom

Energy is vital for growth in economy, to progress the quality of life

and for escalating prospects for development of the country. Energy
accessibility has been redefined as a multidimensional phrase - the
ability to avail energy that is sufficient, accessible when required,
consistent, good quality, convenient, reasonably priced, safe and legal
Model Type

energy services [220,221]. The researchers have been working towards

the development of energy models to overcome the problems pre-
dominant in Indian energy sector – energy equity, energy security and
up

environmental sustainability [222]. A few of some of the distinct energy

models that have been designed for Indian energy sector include India
Frame
Time

Energy Security Scenarios 2047 developed by Planning Commission,

Government of India, Climate Change Impact on the Indian Economy
by National Council for Applied Economic Research, The Energy
Report – India, 100% Renewable Energy by 2050 developed by The
Energy and Resources Institute, Low Carbon Strategies for Inclusive
Geographical

Growth by Planning Commission, Government of India, Energy-

Coverage

Emissions Trends and Policy Landscape, and A Sustainable

Development Framework for India's Climate Policy by Centre for
Science, Technology and Environment Policy.
Presently India's energy mix portrays a complex structure. As per
Number Of Regions

the Twelfth Plan document, renewable energy contributes to about 14.4

per cent of the installed capacity of about 306.3 GW in the year 2016-
17. Peak Demand is about 159 GW (up to September 2016) with the
generation mix of thermal (69.6 per cent), hydro (14.1 per cent), and
Nuclear (1.9 per cent) [223]. About 61 per cent of India's installed
generating capacity is based on coal. Net import of coal has increased
to 166.29 million tons in 2014 from 36.60 million tons during 2006. At
Table 9 (continued)

present approximately 189.24 million tons of crude oil are imported to

Model Name

meet the energy requirement in India. India has imported 5.24 billion
units of electricity from Bhutan during fiscal year 2015–2016, still the
country fails to meet its peak electricity demand and energy require-
ment. India has noticed a peak power deficit of 9252 MW amounting to
11.79 per cent in 2001–02 which has decreased to the order of 4.70 per

109
P. Laha, B. Chakraborty Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 73 (2017) 95–114

cent in 2014–15 contributing to a peak shortage of 7006 MW. With

respect to energy availability, shortage of around 7.5 per cent has been
noticed in the financial year 2001–02 (39,187 GWh) which has
Elimination of
declined to around 3.60 per cent in year 2014–15 [224]. The utilities
Electricity
have been undertaking planned and un-planned load shedding mea-
Shortage
sures to bridge the demand-supply gap. To provide reliable and Enhancing
modern forms of energy to all citizens is a major challenge in India. RE
Energy
Over 95% villages have reportedly happen to electrified while access to Development
Security
electricity stands to about 55% of the rural households [225]. Access to
electricity is one of the causes of inequality between urban and rural Required
household. The National Sample Survey Office has conducted its 66th Energy
survey in 2011 which reports that in rural areas the per capita Model
electricity consumption is 95units/year while in urban areas the per Accessibity Prevent
capita electricity consumption is about 700units/year. Even if electri- and Climate
city become available the survey depicts that the time of availability is Reliabilty Change Env.
late evening or in morning when villagers do not require it much. This of Energy Degradation
leads to extensive kerosene usage which enhances dependency on fuel
Reduce
import. Recent study has projected that the greenhouse gas emissions
Carbon
in India can be curtailed from 4% to 45% by the year 2020 [226]. The
Footprint
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has
stressed that increased percentage of renewable energy use would help
achieve the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions to mitigate
Fig. 15. Required energy model for indian energy sector.
climate change.
To meet with this escalating energy demand and growing climate
also act as virtual power plants by supplying power to the grid during
vulnerability, India's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution has
peak hours while charging during the off peak hours. In the shift to a
been built based on its existing energy- environmental policy. Few of
low-carbon path in India, energy efficiency is a high-value objective to
India's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution [227] proposals
be achieved as India can avoid the power capacity addition of 120 GW
have been discussed below:
by 2030. India's transmission and distribution losses are rampant. This

• Increase of renewable resources in installed power capacity to about

includes both technical as well as non-technical losses owing to theft.
Approximately ninety percent of the coal-based power plants in India
40% by the year 2030.
• Increase renewables installed power capacity from 30 GW presently
have thermal efficiency of 35–38%, which results in high ash content
and low heat output [228]. Snarls of lines over the electrical poles are a
to 175 GW by the year 2022.
• Nuclear power capacity from about 5.8–63 GW by the year 2032.
permeating sight in most Indian city. To address to this loss is

• Efficiency of 144 thermal coal plants to be upgraded by employing

important to prevent revenue loss of the nation. One way to prevent
the power theft is to implement smart meters. From the above
supercritical technology.
• National Smart Grid Mission to capitalize $6 billion in Green Energy
discussion, it is evident that an energy model which vehemently
encompasses all the features required for the development of Indian
Corridor projects for renewable power energy generation.
• National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency (NMEEE) pre-
energy sector is of urgency (Fig. 15.)
clude the requirement for 20 GW of capacity additions which leads
to 23 million tons of CO2. 9. Conclusion
• Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Program would save 50 million tons of
avoided CO2 emissions. The study is set to provide contextual framework of the energy
• Carbon tax to be imposed on coal of 200 rupees for per ton of coal models that have been recently developed globally. The rationale for
for National Clean Environment this review is to provide the information necessary to assist researchers
and decision-makers in identifying suitable energy model for their
From the recent survey it is evident that India is constantly objective. Selection of the most appropriate model would be dependent
endeavoring to shift to a sustainable, low-carbon path. India's energy on the specific research focus, but the concept of modelling methodol-
policy comprises of a substantial mix of cheaper debt financing ogy and data accessibility are important factors considered before
schemes, tax incentives and capital subsidies to significantly meet the implementation of the model. This paper provides a historical back-
gap between demand and supply. India's unmet electricity requirement ground of energy modelling followed by its benefit, challenges and the
offers a huge scope for solar rooftop which adds to the percentage of need for energy modelling. It presents a comprehensive literature
renewable energy being used for power generation but the regulations survey of energy models which have been classified based on eight
regarding its grid interconnection seem to deaccelerate it. Net metering different categories. This section has been followed by a comparative
policies regarding solar rooftop have been announced in almost all list of fifteen energy models which have been used worldwide.
states but implementation seems predominantly in Kerala, Recognizing that energy development based on fossil fuels has led to
Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana and Punjab. There seem to environmental degradation, pollution and drastic climatic condition,
lie a gap between actual policy and its interpretation by the local this study has focused on a set of generic energy models that are aimed
authorities. Most of net metering policies, based on regulations issued to strengthen either energy security, energy access, mitigate climate
by Central Electricity Regulatory Commission, need to decrease change or targeting the carbon budget. Survey has also witnessed an
restrictions on business models, type of connections, system size and increasing shift in population to the urban area as a large proportion of
consumer categories. More use of energy storage technologies can also India's rural population (26% of the total population) thrive without
enhance capacity in the entire energy value chain starting from electricity leading to low quality of life. Policy makers are on the
generation, transmission, distribution up to loads. With the introduc- overdrive in a bid to reduce electricity deficit in India. It is compounded
tion of smart grids and electric vehicles missions, energy storage is now by the cumulative growth in power loss in the Indian states which may
a crucial constituent of energy policy for India. Electric vehicles can overturn its entire electricity growth schedule. The need of the hour is

110
P. Laha, B. Chakraborty Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 73 (2017) 95–114

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