E Meind98
E Meind98
27:375–99
Copyright 1998 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved
Katherine F. Russell
Department of Biology, University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth, Massachusetts
02747-2300; e-mail: [email protected]
KEY WORDS: archaeological demography, skeletal biology, sex and age estimation,
model life tables, intrinsic growth rate
ABSTRACT
Current methods in skeletal biology have improved significantly our ability
to estimate the demographic parameters of extinct populations. Gross mor-
phological and histological age indicators have been developed and tested in
a variety of contexts, revealing great variation in the levels of accuracy of age
prediction of each indicator. Primary attention is given here to the best-
performing hard-tissue indicators of age and to composite methods of recov-
ering the age and sex distribution of a cemetery. It is becoming increasingly
apparent that some cemetaries should not be used for demographic recon-
struction. Such collections have no bearing on the feasibility of paleodemo-
graphic research. Our review concludes with discussions about the role of
comparing modern mortality patterns to those of paleodemography, and the
issue and impact of departures from stationary demographic conditions dur-
ing prehistoric times.
INTRODUCTION
More than 15 years ago Bocquet-Appel & Masset (1982) raised a number of
questions concerning the analysis of vital rates from skeleton-based demogra-
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376 MEINDL & RUSSELL
phies. Since that time the once-tranquil field of paleodemography has become
almost as disputatious as some other areas of anthropology. However, this
shift has resulted in constructive debates and timely reexaminations of models
and assumptions. Further critical review and new research efforts in this area
have increased dramatically, moving paleodemography from the periphery to
the forefront of prehistoric studies (Roth 1992).
Paleodemography is more than the study of mortality and fertility of ar-
chaeological populations. It also includes the estimation of the distribution,
density, and age composition of prehistoric peoples. It considers intrinsic rates
of growth or decline, and it may include migration and the age and sex struc-
ture of migration as well. The field attracts anthropologists for different rea-
sons. Like Goodman et al (1984), Weiss (1989), and Buikstra (1997), our pri-
mary interests in cemeteries have always been the health, life-history, and evo-
lutionary aspects of human biodemography. We limit our comments here to re-
cent methodological advances in estimating the vital structure of an extinct
population from the cemetery on which it was based. We discuss some of the
sampling problems in paleodemography, methods for estimating the distribu-
tion of ages by sex in skeletal series, and life-table mortality schedules and fer-
tility in the context of stable population theory. We also discuss the role of
mortality models external to paleodemography and an approach to the problem
of unknown intrinsic rates of growth in prehistory.
Space also precludes discussion of recent views concerning morbidity pat-
terns in skeletal populations (Wood et al 1992) or the health status surrounding
the adoption of agricultural systems (Cohen 1997). Limits remain to the infer-
ences we can draw from paleodemography; however, studies of living, so-
called “demographically inconvenient” populations have their own unique
challenges (Leslie & Gage 1989:20). We maintain that archaeological popula-
tions offer a special and important view of the biology, cultural evolution, and
basic demography of extinct peoples that is not available from other fields of
anthropology.
articulations, and periosteal bone layers. Bone and tooth survival is a function
of mechanical displacement, soil drainage, and especially pH (Gordon &
Buikstra 1981). Unfavorable conditions cause the destruction or agitation of
hard-tissue remains with such speed that sites of moderate antiquity fall pri-
marily into two groups—those with demographically useful bone assemblages
and those without. An intermediate site in which the human remains are actu-
ally in the process of disappearing would probably have such fragile contents
that even the adult sample would be in poor condition.
Both Sundick (1978) and Saunders (1992) argued that in such sites the hard
evidence required to recognize and age a subadult (i.e. primarily teeth) is pre-
served at least as well as the bones of a robust adult skeleton. Nevertheless,
some added provision may be needed in the wake of moderate mechanical dis-
turbances, such as tree roots and rodents, to estimate accurately the proportion
of infants and very young children (Lovejoy et al 1977). The issue of differen-
tial preservation of bone microstructure is no different. Although histomor-
phological data contain instances of age-related preservation bias (Garland
1987, Hanson & Buikstra 1987), the potential for bias should be recognizable,
and therefore, any impact on the feasibility of paleodemographic inference is
minor.
In nearly all instances the archaeological data themselves should demon-
strate clearly which sites are useful to paleodemographers (contra Jackes
1992:199). A case in point is the inappropriate use of the late-eighteenth cen-
tury Newton Plantation skeletons to question a method of fertility estimation.
The divergence of skeletal- and historical-based inferences failed to “promote
demographic optimism” despite a meager sample and the fact that “preserva-
tion is poor” (Corruccini et al 1989:610). A more widely cited example is the
Purisma Mission cemetery in California, again admittedly a “poorly pre-
served” skeletal collection (Walker et al 1988:184). An argument was made
from the field notes and the curated materials that biases in preservation as
well as selective archaeological recovery were sizable sources of census error.
However, it has always been clear that no demographic analysis should be un-
dertaken with culled skeletons. A companion survey of the Franciscan priests’
written burial records for La Purisma only verified the obvious archaeological
inferences.
dentition. White (1991) and Schwartz (1995) provided instructions for using
some of these methods.
Tooth formation and eruption varies among populations. For example,
some African children tend to develop more quickly than some Europeans and
especially Asians; however, while these distinctions are statistically signifi-
cant owing to the large sample sizes, the average differences are less than a
year (El-Nofely & êcan 1989). Despite these minor geographic variations,
there is consensus that dental development is the age indicator most resistant to
nutritional deficiencies, hormone imbalances, and any other environmental ef-
fect.
Saunders et al (1993) verified the precision of Moorrees’s standards with a
small sample from the St. Thomas’s Church cemetery. Demographers of con-
temporary nonindustrial societies have pointed out that for their purposes there
are no meaningful differences among populations in deciduous tooth eruption;
moreover, they now recognize that, in so-called noncounting cultures, dental
development in young children is a better predictor of a child’s age than is the
mother’s recall of the date of birth (Townsend & Hammel 1990).
Data on the union of epiphyses are frequently used to establish age at death
during the second decade of life; however, environmental stress can retard
skeletal age by as much as three years (Johnston & Zimmer 1989). General
summaries of the standards available may be found in Stewart (1979), Krog-
man & êcan (1986), and Ubelaker (1989). Cemeteries may represent the
growth of the population’s healthy children (Wood et al 1992); therefore, in
paleodemographic applications, age estimation from diaphyseal length and
epiphyseal closure may be biased downward.
effects: (a) The intercalation of every osteological specimen into the entire or-
dered series extracts maximum information about relative biological age, and
(b) seriation minimizes observer error by eliminating fatigue and other time-
shift effects. The arrangement of a sequence of increasing skeletal age, with
the progressive detection and reduction of error, and the final assignment of in-
dividual target ages requires long tables and consumes considerable amounts
of time and effort. However, it produces final ages for each skeleton that in ef-
fect are assigned simultaneously. We recommend this exercise to even the
most skilled osteologist for its heuristic effects. The process should be re-
peated for each age estimator independently. Phase, component, and even re-
gression methods for estimating age can benefit greatly from this approach.
Error in age estimation can be quantified only when methods are tested on
individuals of known chronological age. The amount of bias1 and inaccuracy2
of age prediction vary greatly among skeletal aging methods. In most circum-
stances inaccuracy can be minimized across the age range by including more
than one method. Bias, however, is another matter and, in paleodemographic
contexts, a more serious one. Most methods exhibit age-related levels of error,
for example, small error below a certain age but unacceptably wide error mar-
gins afterward. Application of such methods must be limited to those age
ranges for which age-related changes are regular. Otherwise, the problem of
reference population bias may become pronounced.
A critical problem in paleodemography is the bias that results from poor ac-
curacy in age estimation and its effect in skewing the calculation of demo-
graphic profiles. The reversal of the fixed independent regressor (real age)
with the “free-to-vary” dependent regressand (age indicator morphology) has
always been a problem in the field of skeletal demography (Bocquet-Appel &
Masset 1982). Age estimation of a series of skeletons may produce a distribu-
tion reflecting the skeletal reference population on which the aging method
was originally developed, rather than the age structure of the cemetery being
analyzed. Such mimicry tends to be marked when indicators correlate poorly
with actual age. Several studies have addressed this issue (Van Gerven & Ar-
melagos 1983; Buikstra & Konigsberg 1985; Mensforth & Lovejoy 1985;
Buikstra et al 1986; Siven 1991; Jackes 1985, 1992, 1993).
Bocquet-Appel & Masset (1996) have become convinced recently that the
mean age of a cemetery is indeed recoverable. Konigsberg & Frankenberg
(1992, 1994; Konigsberg et al 1997) pursue a more useful goal, the demonstra-
tion that both the mean and the shape of a cemetery age-distribution can be es-
timated with minimal bias. They have surveyed paleodemographic reports, ex-
plored the fisheries literature on the subject of calibration, and shown the supe-
1 1Bias = Σ (estimated age − real age)/number of individuals; that is, sign is considered.
2 2Inaccuracy = Σ |estimated age − real age|/number of individuals; that is, sign is not considered.
384 MEINDL & RUSSELL
attention of all the anatomical structures in estimating age at death. Todd first
described age-related changes in humans (1920, 1921a ) and in other mammals
(1921b). His careful characterization of pubic epiphyseal fusion and progres-
sive degenerative changes provided the basis for all such subsequent aging
methods (McKern & Stewart 1957, Gilbert & McKern 1973). When used in
one of its condensed forms (Meindl et al 1985b, Suchey et al 1986) the pubic
symphysis can be a valuable method for estimating young and middle adult
age.
The importance of the pubic symphysis in paleodemography is limited to
the aging of adults up to about age 40 years (Hanihara & Suzuki 1978; Meindl
et al 1985b; Lovejoy et al 1995, 1997). The appearance and fusion of the ven-
tral rampart of the pubic symphysis are nothing more than uniquely human, de-
layed epiphyseal events, representing the only discrete features that make the
pubic symphysis a valuable aging locus. Fusion is typically completed before
age 35, marking the end of all developmental activity at this joint. Post-
epiphyseal changes are all degenerative, highly variable, and not particularly
valuable for age estimation, as confirmed by Saunders et al (1992) and others.
assigned unknown specimens to the youngest age class possible despite our
explicit directions to the contrary (Meindl et al 1990:353). Still, the auricular
surface predicted extreme age better than the other indicators, especially the
pubis, in this test (Saunders et al 1992) and in another (Bedford et al 1993). Fi-
nally, researchers have noted that the frail pubic symphysis is not nearly as
archaeologically durable as the auricular surface (Pfeiffer 1986, Waldron
1987).
COSTOCHONDRAL JOINTS The potential of costochondral joints (i.e. ventral
articular surfaces of ribs) to represent adult age was appreciated as early as the
1950s (McKern & Stewart 1957). êcan et al were the first to formalize an ag-
ing method (by sex) based on the fourth rib (1984a,b). Independent tests of
their method have confirmed its utility in age estimation and its acceptably low
bias before age 50 (Saunders et al 1992, Russell et al 1993, Dudar et al 1993).
The metamorphosis of the joint includes a change from a smooth billowed im-
mature surface to a more concave and irregular surface as a result of remodel-
ling (i.e. periosteal accretion and endosteal resorption). Any geographic differ-
ences in the rates of change (êcan et al 1987) cannot be very large (Russell et
al 1993).
OCCLUSAL DENTAL WEAR Occlusal dental wear is one of the most reliable
methods of estimating adult age, as long as the assumption of uniform rates of
attrition in the population can be reasonably met. Murphy (1959) and Miles
(1963) presented two of the seminal methods for estimating age from dental
wear. Murphy (1959) used an ordinal scale in which each cusp was scored in-
dependently. Miles (1963) used a single evaluation per tooth. Modifications of
such methods were fruitful and can be recommended for age estimation (Smith
1984, Kieser et al 1985, Lovejoy 1985). Even in the heterogenous Hamann-
Todd collection, occlusal dental wear was the least-biased single estimator of
extreme adult age (Lovejoy et al 1985a); therefore, it is very important for pa-
leodemographic application.
Careful assessment of adolescent tooth wear, consideration of individual
variation in dental attrition, and an appreciation of the effects of antemortem
tooth loss on the rest of the dentition must all be evaluated for successful appli-
cation of the methods. We are aware of two sites, both Green River Archaic
cemeteries, for which dental wear was too extreme to be useful in aging skele-
tons: the Carlston-Annis site (Mensforth 1990) and the Ward site (Meindl et al
1998). Certainly the rates of wear changed for the oldest members of these
populations when attrition began to involve the buccal roots of the lower mo-
lars.
distribution (Acsádi & Nemeskéri 1970, Singh 1972, Walker & Lovejoy
1985). In the macroscopic methods used for such observations, seriation of ra-
diographs is especially important in fostering the retention of biologically rele-
vant differences among individuals in both bone density and distribution. Be-
cause of the dramatic physiological and mechanical factors influencing bone
remodeling, the internal macroscopic structure of bone is not an extremely ac-
curate method of age assessment. However, the method can contribute effec-
tively to improving age estimation when used in concert with other aging sites
(Lovejoy et al 1985a).
Histological Indicators of Age
Bone growth and modeling produce a mature cortex with a characteristic struc-
ture. Remodeling occurs throughout life in long-lived adult mammals in re-
sponse to mechanical and physiological activity. The remodeling of osteons
provides a quantifiable means of assessing age-at-death from sectioned adult
cortical bone. Kerley (1965, Kerley & Ubelaker 1978) provided the first sys-
tematic means of quantifying osteons and osteon fragments, circumferential
lamellar bone (thin parallel layers of bone), and non-Haversian vascular canals
(formed as the cortex increases diameter around peripheral blood vesels) to
produce regression equations suitable for estimating age in unknown individu-
als. Other modifications followed (Ahlqvist & Damsten 1969, Singh & Gun-
berg 1970, Thompson 1979, Walker 1989).
Since bone continues to remodel under mechanical stress throughout adult
life, multiple sampling sites from more than one cross-section are necessary
(Stout 1992). Stout & Paine (1992) suggested that non–weight-bearing bones
such as the clavicle and sixth rib might be more suitable than the major long
bones because they undergo less mechanical remodeling. Frost (1987) and
Stout (1992) proposed the calculation of a mean tissue age.
Histological aging methods all use linear regression equations, which are
notoriously limited (Giles and Klepinger 1988, Maples & Rice 1979, Lucy et
al 1996). Confidence intervals are neither small nor equivalent but expand as
the regression line moves away from the mean. Histological techniques have
been reported which are averages of histological and gross estimators adequate
for measuring rib age in individuals under age 60 (Dudar et al 1993). However,
they may be no better at indicating older ages than methods using the pubic
symphysis (Aiello & Molleson 1993). Walker et al (1994) claimed that for in-
dividuals older than age 50, osteon density does not correlate as well with age
as it does with geometric properties of femoral cross-sections.
Preservation of microscopic bone structure depends heavily on soil condi-
tions, and macroscopic appearance of a bone may not be a good indicator of its
histological preservation (Garland 1987). There can be partial to complete de-
struction (particularly of periosteal regions) of the bone microstructure, even
388 MEINDL & RUSSELL
plied to ensure accuracy of age at death of the specimens used for analysis; in
addition, subselection did not result in reduced variation (Meindl et al 1990).
In summary, methods for estimating the age distributions of representative
cemeteries can be accurate provided that (a) seriation is applied, (b) biological
assessment of each aging site is used, rather than so-called comparison-
matching of specimens to a series of discrete morphotypes, and (c) reliance is
placed on a battery of proven adult age estimators.
At this time we would also offer the following amendment to our previous
research: As before, a weighted average or subjective combination of aging
methods should be used for all young and middle-aged adult skeletons. This
can be done according to an algorithm (as above) or in a general way, such as
the subjective estimation of clinical age (Lovejoy et al 1985a). Furthermore,
for those skeletons determined to be older than 40 years, new estimates should
be provided from dental attrition (if possible) and especially from the auricular
surface. Although these methods remain difficult to learn and apply and do not
often satisfy the specific needs of forensic specialists, few alternatives exist at
this time for estimating the ages of the oldest decedents in archaeological
populations—one of the most important methodological issues in paleode-
mography today.
Sweden in 1851, for which life expectancy at birth exceeded 35 years, actually
approximate those of paleodemographic populations with lower life expectan-
cies (Coale & Demeny 1966:29).
Many alternatives are available for smoothing or completing life-table data.
Weiss’s (1973) tables are a little more flexible; however, they depend to some
degree on modern patterns. Gage (1988, 1989, 1998) has developed some haz-
ard models for use in anthropological contexts. These alternatives have some
valuable practical and theoretical properties, including the flexibility to
smooth life-table data without shoehorning them into modern patterns.
at death predicts the reciprocal of the crude birthrate nearly exactly for all (hu-
manly possible) values of the intrinsic rate of growth (i.e. −1% < r < +4.0% per
year). In other words, the cemetery fixes the crude birthrate, but both mortality
and growth are anybody’s guess. Johansson & Horowitz (1986) restated this
finding and explored more closely the small departures from linearity of the re-
lationships between mean age and life expectancy. Horowitz & Armelagos
(1988) showed that the closeness of these approximations is limited to the
kinds of conditions that only paleodemographers examine, that is, heavy early
mortality.
If fertility is fixed by the cemetery, how can demographers choose a spe-
cific mortality level on the continuum of solutions? Bennett’s (1973) analysis
of Point of Pines, Asch’s (1976) approach to Middle Woodland groups in the
Lower Illinois Valley, and Muller’s (1997) models for the dynamics of late
prehistoric populations in the Eastern Woodlands all argued for solutions
based on a hypothesized growth rate. However, archaeological support for a
single value is exceedingly difficult to find (Horowitz & Armelagos 1988).
Life expectancy at birth ( e 0 ) is a function of mortality only. By contrast, the
crude birth rate (b) depends on age-specific fertilities, the age structure of the
population, and even the mortality function. We suggest that a hypothesized
fertility (or restricted range) be used to complete a demographic reconstruction
whenever the use of a growth rate is not feasible. However, as Sattenspiel &
Harpending (1983) pointed out, the regression of b on r or on any mortality
variable is virtually horizontal. No numerical solution could emerge from a hy-
pothesized crude birth rate; moreover, only one value of b is possible for a
given cemetery.
A different fertility measure, one stripped of any influence of maternal mor-
tality or age structure, may be more appropriate. The total fertility rate (TFR) is
a measure of completed fertility performance only and has been emphasized in
general frameworks by Howell (1976), Roth (1992), Harpending (1997), and
Keckler (1997). The TFR represents the average number of live births to
women who live to the end of the reproductive span (age 50 years), that is, the
sum of the age-specific fertility rates. For purposes of estimation this measure
increases too slowly with r in the vicinity of stationarity (i.e. zero growth), but
it increases geometrically after growth rates exceed about 1%. Therefore, one
problem with this approach is that the only exact solutions possible are high-
growth solutions. Another problem is the issue of choosing a value for the
TFR, because its variance in anthropological populations is surprisingly large
(Wood 1990), an observation that may one day force a reconsideration of the
meaning of the term “natural fertility.”
An example of this approach is our analysis of the Late-Archaic Ward site
cemetery in Kentucky (15McL11), for which we found a mean age of death in
the mid-20s (Meindl et al 1998). A hypothesized value of 6.5 children for the
PALEODEMOGRAPHY 393
TFR determined both a new life expectancy in the mid-30s and an average
nonzero growth rate of 2.5% (It was assumed that only the periods of growth
were represented in the cemetery). A value of 2.5% per annum is high but not
unusual for well-censused primitive Amerindian populations of the twentieth
century (Weiss 1975, Hill & Hurtado 1996). This analysis corresponded to a
consensus among Eastern Woodland archaeologists that the first population
explosion in Kentucky took place in the Late Archaic (Griffin 1967, Jefferies
1996).
CONCLUSION
Some of the criticisms leveled recently at osteological paleodemography have
been justified. Too many studies had been undertaken using unacceptable
skeletal samples. Some demographies were based on skeletal age indicators
whose only merit was that they correlated in some way with increasing age.
The fundamental observation by modern demographers that fertility changes
tend to have far larger impacts on age structure than mortality had gone largely
unappreciated by our field. As a result anthropologists had to begin again with
what Larry Angel called the “Bases of Paleodemography” (1969).
We have limited our review to the advances in the most fundamental ele-
ment of this field, the consideration of age-at-death distributions. And while
there have been improvements in the field, there is more work to be done. First,
skeletal aging methods for the oldest decedents in a cemetery must be further
developed and refined, and we must recognize the fact that many traditional
aging methodologies will never be able to contribute here. Second, paleode-
mographers must borrow fertility and growth parameters from living anthro-
pological populations more freely in order to complete their inferences from
skeletal age-at-death distributions. And last, paleodemography, a “valid, spe-
cialized subfield of demography” (Roth 1992:175), should now assert itself.
Its data should not be forced into modern industrialized demographic profiles
without some empirical justification. If the demographic patterns of prehistory
were fundamentally different, archaeological demographers should reserve
the opportunity to detect them.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We thank Owen Lovejoy and Alan Swedlund for critical readings of this
manuscript. Henry Harpending gave helpful comments on the “Growth” sec-
tion. These scholars have been influential in the field of paleodemography and
have improved this paper.
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