Recently constructed hydropower dams were

associated with reduced economic production,

population, and greenness in nearby areas
Peilei Fana,b,1 , Myung Sik Chob,c , Zihan Linb,c , Zutao Ouyangd, Jiaguo Qib,c , Jiquan Chenb,c , and
Emilio F. Moranb,c
a
School of Planning, Design and Construction, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824; bCenter for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan
State University, East Lansing, MI 48824; cDepartment of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824; and
d
Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305

Edited by Thomas Lovejoy2, Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; received April 29, 2021; accepted
December 29, 2021

Hydropower dams produce huge impacts on renewable energy or under construction, primarily in three emerging countries
production, water resources, and economic development, particu- (Brazil, China, and India), where an extremely high number of
Downloaded from https://www.pnas.org by INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE PESQUISAS ESPACIAIS on September 27, 2023 from IP address 150.163.68.1.

larly in the Global South, where accelerated dam construction has hydropower projects have been carried out (2) (SI Appendix).
made it a global hotspot. We do not fully understand the multiple Dams have been constructed for irrigation, flood control,
impacts that dams have in the nearby areas from a global perspec- water supply, navigation, aquaculture, and recreation for over
tive, including the spatial differentiations. In this study, we exam- 3,000 y, with hydroelectric power generation emerging later,
ined the impacts of hydropower dam construction in nearby areas. after the first hydropower dam that was built in Wisconsin in
We first found that more than one-third of global gross domestic 1882 (5, 6). Hydropower dams are seen as an approach to alle-

SUSTAINABILITY
production (GDP) and almost one-third of global population fall viate the negative impacts of severe drought and flooding that
within 50 km of the world’s 7,155 hydropower dams (<10% of the are likely to increase in the coming decades as well (7). Despite

SCIENCE
global land area sans the Antarctic). We further analyzed impacts these benefits, dams also have been criticized for their negative
of 631 hydropower dams (≥1-megawatt capacity) constructed since impacts on people, local ecosystems, and the environment.
2001 and commissioned before 2015 for their effects on economy, Their profound impacts on economies, people, and local com-
population, and environment in nearby areas and examined the munities include energy generation, job creation, livelihood
results in five regions (i.e., Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, and change, resident relocation, and others (2, 8–12). The biophysi-
South America) and by different dam sizes. We found that recently cal impacts include alteration of the hydrological processes
constructed dams were associated with increased GDP in North (13–17), changes in the ecological system (8, 9, 18, 19) (particu-
America and urban areas in Europe but with decreased GDP, urban larly on biodiversity) (20–23), and transformations in land cover
land, and population in the Global South and greenness in Africa in and land use (24, 25). For example, in evaluating 12 proposed
nearby areas. Globally, these dams were linked with reduced eco- hydropower dams for the main stream in the Lower Mekong
nomic production, population, and greenness of areas within 50 Basin, where many large-capacity dams have been constructed,
km of the dams. While large dams were related with reduced GDP
and greenness significantly, small and medium dams were coupled
with lowered population and urban land substantially, and large Significance
and medium dams were connected to diminished nighttime light
noticeably in nearby areas. This research provides a global-scale evaluation of the
impact of dam construction by using a variety of global spa-
hydropower dams j impacts j economy j population j environment tial databases. In particular, it provides insight into the
impacts on economy, population, and greenness of 631
recently built hydropower dams by region and dam size. We

A s one of the most-significant infrastructures for promoting

economic development, hydropower dams have received
renewed interest in recent decades, particularly in emerging
discovered that 631 recently built hydropower dams were
associated with reduced local economy, population, and
greenness in areas within 50 km of the dam sites, particu-
countries in Asia and South America. According to the Global larly in the Global South. This is contrary to claims that
Georeferenced Database of Dams (GOODD)—the largest dams improve the livelihoods of people as well as ecosystem
open-source, global, georeferenced database of dams—more services. The research highlights that policy interventions
than 38,000 dams are visible on satellite imagery (1). Most are needed to address impacts on populations and urban
dams were constructed in the 20th century, when dam construc- land near small and medium dams.
tion was intensified and flourished on the continents of North
America, Europe, and Australia, where both social and eco- Author contributions: P.F. designed research; P.F., M.S.C., Z.L., and Z.O. performed
nomic development progressed faster than they did in other research; P.F., M.S.C., Z.L., and Z.O. analyzed data; P.F., M.S.C., Z.L., Z.O., J.Q., J.C., and
regions of the world (2). Most hydropower dams in North E.F.M. wrote the paper; P.F. edited the paper; J.Q., J.C., and E.F.M. participated in the
design of the research and discussion of the results; and J.Q., J.C., and E.F.M. edited
America and Europe were built before 1975 (3); since then, the manuscript.
new construction has shifted to Asia and South America, espe- The authors declare no competing interest.
cially over the past two decades. Of the 7,155 hydropower dams This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
in the database of the World Resources Institute (WRI), 6,200 This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-
were built before 2001, with about two-thirds located in North NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND).
America (2,063) and Europe (1,922). Of the 955 hydropower 1
To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: [email protected].
dams built after 2001, 81% were built in Asia (342) and South 2
Deceased December 25, 2021.
America (427) (4) (Fig. 1). This trend likely will continue into This article contains supporting information online at http://www.pnas.org/lookup/
the future, as at least 3,700 hydropower dams with a capacity of suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.2108038119/-/DCSupplemental.
more than 1 Megawatt (MW) are currently either planned Published February 7, 2022.

PNAS 2022 Vol. 119 No. 8 e2108038119 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108038119 j 1 of 11

Downloaded from https://www.pnas.org by INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE PESQUISAS ESPACIAIS on September 27, 2023 from IP address 150.163.68.1.

Fig. 1. Distribution of global hydropower dams. Data are based on WRI’s Global Database of Power Plants (4). Note that the geographic focus of
hydropower dam construction has shifted from North America and Europe to Asia and South America over the past two decades. Out of 7,155 global
hydropower dams, 87% (6,200 green triangles) were built before 2001 (or without the commission year recorded), with 64% of these built in North
America and Europe; 13% (955 blue and red triangles) were built since 2001, with 81% of these built in Asia and South America. We selected 631 dams
constructed after 2001 and commissioned no later than 2015 for our current study (red triangles).

the International Centre for Environmental Management esti- spatial scales, both in five regions (i.e., Africa, Asia, Europe,
mated that these projects, if implemented, would increase North America, and South America) and by dam sizes. This
power security, navigation conditions for large vessels, and for- was made possible due to the availability of multiple open-
eign investment and economic development for certain sectors; access, global, spatial databases of land cover and land use,
at the same time, they would produce adverse impacts on eco- population density, and economy (Data and SI Appendix). In
system functions, hydrological dynamics, fisheries, agricultural this paper, we endeavored to answer the research question:
land, and social systems (26). What have been the impacts of hydropower dams on economy,
While hydropower dams are a global phenomenon and will population, and environment by region and dam size? Specifi-
continue to produce fundamental and widespread impacts on cally, 1) What is the economy generated and population located
energy and economy, there remains a major knowledge gap within the nearby areas of hydropower dams (NAHDs) in dif-
regarding their benefits and damages to nearby areas of dams ferent global regions? and 2) How did economy, population,
around the globe. Three major limitations exist. First, despite the and environment change for the nearby area as well as along
plethora of literature that has evaluated the impacts of individual the gradient from the construction site to the edge of the
hydropower dams, there is no comprehensive evaluation of these nearby areas among global regions and by dam size?
impacts at a global scale, which is hindered partially by a lack of We hypothesize that the economy generated and population
practical measurements for socioeconomic impacts (11, 27). The located in the nearby areas of dams are disproportionally
lack of global-scale analysis of dams’ impacts also prevents us higher than those of the land area at the global level and for all
from understanding overall impacts in different global regions regions (H1). This hypothesis is derived based on the facts that
and why they have been adopted enthusiastically in certain coun- population and gross domestic production (GDP) tend to con-
tries. Second, previous assessments have mostly focused on spe- centrate and cluster according to a variety of factors, with geog-
cific areas, with different definitions of geographical scope, such raphy of water exerting an influence (rivers, ports, and dams)
as fisheries and livelihoods of adjacent rural communities or land despite the changed dependence of human’s dependence on
cover and land use change and ecological impacts at the water- freshwater bodies (28–30). We further hypothesize that the
shed scales, thus making cross comparison of impacts difficult. nearby areas of the dams may experience reductions in econ-
Third, despite the overall benefits or tradeoffs at country/regional omy, population, and greenness (i.e., an indicator of ecosystem
levels, there is a lack of analysis on the spatial differences in function) related to dam construction (H2). This hypothesis is
the benefits and losses to the local economy, population, and derived based on case studies and consideration that dam con-
environment in nearby areas of dams. struction can cause relocation of economic activity and popula-
Attempting to fill abovementioned knowledge gaps, we tion and construction of related facilities such as operating
examined the impacts of hydropower dams in the nearby areas rooms or roads that further reduce greenness (31–38). Substan-
of the dams on economy, population, and greenness at multiple tial spatial differences may exist in terms of impact magnitude

2 of 11 j PNAS Fan et al.

https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108038119 Recently constructed hydropower dams were associated with reduced
economic production, population, and greenness in nearby areas
 of dams along the gradient from the construction site to the of GDP, 4% of population, and 1% of land area in Asia and
edge of the nearby areas. 3% of both GDP and population and 1% of land area in
In this paper, we define the NAHDs as a circular boundary Europe were from NAHDs. Cautiously, our findings are signifi-
within 50 km of a dam. We first calculated total GDP and pop- cantly correlative between population and GDP, especially for
ulation in 2015 within the NAHDs of 7,155 hydropower dams. recently constructed dams, with Pearson correlation coefficients
These dams, including information about installed capacity of 0.876 and 0.996, for 7,155 dams and 632 newly constructed
(MW) and years of commission, were listed in the Global Data- dams, respectively (Fig. 2C), implying the colocations of eco-
base of Power Plants (4)—one of the most comprehensive and nomic activities and population. It should be noted that we
updated databases on global hydropower dams. We then built a excluded one dam in Oceania in the analysis for impact of
database of 631 recently constructed hydropower dams (i.e., recently constructed hydropower dams (i.e., a total of 631
dams with installed capacity ≥1 MW constructed after 2001 hydropower dams were analyzed for impact of hydro power
and commissioned before 2015), for Africa, Asia, Europe, construction) (Study Area).
North America, and South America. Our selection of the study
period 2001 through 2015 was based on the availability of Impact of Recently Constructed Hydropower Dams in Global Regions.
global databases on the impacts that we were interested in While our reference area experienced increased economic
examining. We categorized the dams as large-, medium-, and development, NAHDs showed either a decrease in economic
small-sized by their installed capacity of >300 MW, 10 MW to development or a smaller increase than their respective refer-
300 MW (i.e., >10 MW and ≤300 MW), and 1 MW to 10 MW ence areas at the global scale, particularly in the Global South,
(i.e., ≥1 MW and ≤10 MW), respectively. We then analyzed the measured by ΔGDP, ΔUrban, and ΔNTL (Table 1 and Fig. 3).
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impacts of these 631 dams on economy, population, and vegeta- Furthermore, when compared with reference zones, urban land
tion using five quantitative measures from several global spatial decreased for all zones in NAHDs (49%, 40%, and 33%
databases: economy, nighttime light (visible near-infrared emis- for Zones 1, 2, and 3, respectively). NTL seems particularly
sion) (NTL), population density, and two measures of land high in Zone 1 (∼1.0) when compared with Zones 2 and 3
cover (SI Appendix, Table S1). For changes in economy, we (∼0.2 and ∼0.1). All zones in NAHDs experienced lower GDP,
leading to a change of GDP 19%, 27%, and 23% for

SUSTAINABILITY
used GDP, urban and built-up land (Urban), and the intensity
of NTL (the degree of brightness of NTL). Their differences Zones 1, 2, and 3, respectively, when compared with reference
zones. For Asia, South America, and Africa, the average GDP

SCIENCE
(i.e., ΔGDP, ΔUrban, and ΔNTL) were calculated by compar-
ing the values 1 y before dam construction and 3 y after being and urban land cover decreased (ΔGDP < 0 and ΔUrban < 0)
commissioned. Population change (ΔPopulation) was calcu- in Zones 1, 2, and 3 but increased in their reference areas
lated as the change in population density over the same period. (ΔGDP > 0 and ΔUrban > 0), except in Zones 1 and 2 for
We evaluated environmental impact through the change in total Africa (ΔGDP > 0). In contrast, in the Global North (i.e., North
America and Europe), the average GDP and urban land cover
greenness by using the Normalized Difference Vegetation
increased in NAHDs and reference areas (ΔGDP > 0 and
Index (NDVI), a measure of vegetation greenness. We
ΔUrban > 0). In particular, GDP of NAHDs and each of the
acknowledge that NDVI is an extremely simplified measure for
Zones 1, 2, and 3 in North America showed three to seven times
environmental impact, as it does not consider other important
the increase compared with that of the reference areas; urban
dimensions, such as biodiversity. To assess impacts of dam con-
land of NAHDs in Europe had five to nine times the increase
struction along a spatial gradient from the construction site, we
compared with that of the reference areas. The results indicated
identified four zones based on distance from the dam. Zone 1
that dams were associated with increased GDP in North Amer-
(<5 km), Zone 2 (5 to 20 km), and Zone 3 (20 to 50 km) are in
ica and urban land in Europe but decreased GDP and urban
NAHDs, whereas the fourth, the reference zone (50 to 60 km),
land on other continents. NTL, which suggests the economic
is outside the NAHDs (Materials and Methods).
vitality of a place, increased (ΔNTL > 0) for both NAHDs and
reference areas globally, although less increase was observed in
Results NAHDs than in the respective reference areas. Furthermore,
Economy and Population in NAHDs. Globally, a significant propor- NTL decreased (ΔNTL < 0) in North America (all zones), Asia
tion of economic value and population fall within NAHDs, (Zones 2 and 3), and Africa (Zone 3), whereas the NTL values
especially in North America, Europe, and South America. In increased in their respective reference areas. The negative
total, 37% of global GDP was generated, and 28% of the global ΔGDP, ΔUrban, and ΔNTL of NAHDs, in contrast to their pos-
population resided in the NAHDs of 7,155 hydropower dams itive values in respective reference areas or smaller increased
in 2015, which amounted to 9.5% of the land area of these six values of NAHDs than those in reference areas, imply that dam
continents (Fig. 2A). NAHDs accounted for 56%, 46%, and construction was linked with reduced economic production in
45% of the regional GDP of North America, South America, NAHDs worldwide, except in North America (measured by
and Europe, respectively. NAHDs hosted more than half of the GDP) and Europe (measured by urban land).
population of North America, trailed by European and South NAHDs showed decreased population across the globe
American NAHDs, which hosted one-third of their popula- (ΔPopulation ∼ 6.6), which is in contrast to the increased
tions. Europe leads in proportion of land areas in the NAHDs, population in the reference zone (ΔPopulation ∼14.8). Popula-
followed by South America and North America. tion decreased more with increased distance from the construc-
According to the database of WRI (4), a total of 632 hydro- tion site within the NAHD, illustrated by the proportion of
power dams with ≥1-MW capacity were constructed since 2001 population change to that of the reference zone (i.e., 16%,
and commissioned before 2015, with 333 (53%) being medium 35%, and 46% for Zones 1, 2, and 3, respectively). Asia and
sized (SI Appendix, Table S2). While only accounting for a small South America followed the global trend of decreased popula-
portion (8%) of the global total, these 632 dams nevertheless tion in all zones in NAHDs. While population increased in
show a sizable influence on GDP and population within their some zones in North America, Africa, and Europe
NAHDs: ∼5% of global GDP and ∼4% of global population in (ΔPopulation > 0), these increases are much smaller than their
2015, which occupied 1% of the land area of the continents respective reference areas, with the highest being 77% of the
(Fig. 2B). South America distinguishes itself from other reference zone level in Zone 2 in Europe. The decrease or the
regions, where NAHDs, 6% of its land area, amounted to 21% smaller increase of the population indices in NAHDs compared
of GDP and 17% of population of the region. In contrast, 3% to the positive values of the reference areas implies significant

Fan et al. PNAS j 3 of 11

Recently constructed hydropower dams were associated with reduced https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108038119
economic production, population, and greenness in nearby areas
 60
A 50 56
7155 dams
45 46
48
39

% of the region
Land Populaon GDP 38 37
36
27 28 28 28
26
24
14
11 9
12 9 8
6 5
3 3
0
Africa Asia Europe N. America Oceania S.America Global
Region
B 25
21
632 recently constructed dams
20
Land Populaon GDP 17
% of the region
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15

10
6 6 6
4 3 4 5
5 2 2 3 3
1 1 1
0 0 0 1 0
0
Africa Asia Europe N. America Oceania S.America Global
Region

C Correlation Coefficient (r) (bolded number indicate the significant correlation)

Global dams 2015 Land Population GDP

Land 1.000 0.527 0.557

Population 1.000 0.876
GDP 1.000
Newly constructed dams 2015 Land Population GDP

Land 1.000 0.950 0.967

Population 1.000 0.996
GDP 1.000

Significance (P value)
Global dams 2015 Land Population GDP

Land 0.224 0.194

Population 0.010

GDP
Newly constructed dams 2015 Land Population GDP

Land 0.001 0.000

Population 0.000

GDP

Fig. 2. GDP and population in the nearby areas (50-km radius buffer zones) of dams as a percentage of their respective regions in 2015. (A) 7,155 dams.
(B) 632 recently constructed dams. (C) Correlation matrix of the results of A and B. Note that in 2015, the nearby areas of the 7,155 hydropower dams
generated more than 1/3 (37%) of global GDP and hosted almost 1/3 (28%) global population, though they occupied only 10% of land area of the six
continents. The 632 recently constructed dams generated 5% of global GDP, hosted 4% of the population, and occupied 1% of land area. North America
and Europe led in economy and population hosted in NAHD for all dams, and South America tops others substantially in economy and population in
NAHD for recently constructed dams.

negative impacts on population in nearby areas associated with contrasts to the increase in reference areas (ΔNDVI ∼ 0.013)
dam construction. at the global level. Among the five regions, Africa had the
Greenness, reflected by NDVI, decreased within the most-significant relative loss in greenness of the NAHDs in
NAHDs, with the highest reduction found in Zone 1 (ΔNDVI comparison with the reference zone (40%), which is substan-
∼ 0.004), a smaller change in Zone 2 (ΔNDVI ∼ 0.002), tially larger than the global average of 6%. Europe and Asia
and a minor change in Zone 3 (ΔNDVI ∼ 0.001). This experienced the most-significant decrease in greenness for

4 of 11 j PNAS Fan et al.

https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108038119 Recently constructed hydropower dams were associated with reduced
economic production, population, and greenness in nearby areas
 Table 1. Impacts of hydropower dam construction illustrated by average changed values of five indices of the buffer zones for
different global regions
Region Global Africa Asia Europe North America South America

䉭GDP (Million dollars)

Zone 1 (<5 km) 6,021,947 19% 19,063,010 78% 10,991,470 28% 48,748,587 303% 37,872,421 659% 18,183,144 53%
Zone 2 (5 to 20 km) 8,731,524 27% 5,705,802 23% 9,250,586 24% 12,032,548 75% 30,547,340 532% 18,622,539 54%
Zone 3 (20 to 50 km) 7,381,805 23% 7,673,398 31% 9,356,665 24% 8,488,121 53% 15,990,569 278% 12,002,126 35%
NAHD (0 to 50 km) 7,570,664 23% 5,399,154 22% 9,357,101 24% 9,422,390 59% 18,392,903 320% 13,056,998 38%
Reference Zone 32,326,438 24,433,029 38,767,215 16,102,404 5,746,072 34,614,073
(50 to 60 km)
䉭Urban (km2)
Zone 1 (<5 km) 2.52 ×1008 49% 3.78 × 1008 64% 4.38 × 1008 52% 3.12 × 1008 941% 4.96 × 1008 87% 3.06 × 1008 97%
Zone 2 (5 to 20 km) 2.05 × 1008 40% 1.17 × 1008 20% 3.16 × 1008 38% 1.55 × 1008 467% 1.97 × 1008 35% 2.54 × 1008 80%
Zone 3 (20 to 50 km) 1.68 × 1008 33% 2.83 × 1008 48% 1.69 × 1008 20% 1.55 × 1008 468% 9.15 × 1009 16% 2.49 × 1008 79%
NAHD (0 to 50 km) 1.74 × 1008 34% 2.24 × 1008 38% 1.94 × 1008 23% 1.57 × 1008 472% 1.11 × 1008 20% 2.50 × 1008 79%
Reference Zone 5.14 × 1008 5.93 × 1008 8.34 × 1008 3.32 × 1009 5.68 × 1008 3.17 × 1008
(50 to 60km)
䉭NTL (DN)
Zone 1 (<5 km) 1.0 54% 1.3 65% 0.6 26% 0.5 61% 0.4 47% 1.6 87%
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Zone 2 (5 to 20 km) 0.2 9% 0.1 4% 0.2 8% 0.4 45% 0.5 58% 0.5 28%
Zone 3 (20 to 50 km) 0.1 7% 0.1 3% 0.2 10% 0.4 51% 0.2 20% 0.5 24%
NAHD (0 to 50 km) 0.2 8% 0.0 1% 0.2 10% 0.4 50% 0.2 26% 0.5 26%
Reference Zone 1.9 2.0 2.4 0.9 0.9 1.9
(50 to 60 km)
䉭Pop (Person/km2)
2.4 16% 3.2 15% 5.2 210% 4.1 43%

SUSTAINABILITY
Zone 1 (<5 km) 27.5 49% 4.1 32%
Zone 2 (5 to 20 km) 5.2 35% 4.1 7% 5.8 27% 0.5 21% 2.3 18% 7.4 77%
Zone 3 (20 to 50 km) 6.9 46% 25.2 45% 9.0 42% 1.9 77% 2.5 19% 6.2 65%

SCIENCE
NAHD (0 to 50 km) 6.6 45% 20.3 36% 8.5 40% 1.6 66% 1.7 13% 6.4 66%
Reference Zone 14.8 56.1 21.4 2.5 13.1 9.6
(50 to 60 km)
䉭NDVI (index number)
Zone 1 (<5 km) 0.004 34% 0.003 53% 0.005 35% 0.006 47% 0.002 11% 0.004 38%
Zone 2 (5 to 20 km) 0.002 15% 0.004 73% 0.003 26% 0.003 22% 0.001 4% 0.001 9%
Zone 3 (20 to 50 km) 0.001 4% 0.002 35% 0.001 8% 0.001 9% 0.000 1% 0.000 0%
NAHD (0 to 50 km) 0.001 6% 0.002 40% 0.001 11% 0.002 12% 0.000 0% 0.000 1%
Reference Zone 0.013 0.005 0.013 0.014 0.021 0.011
(50 to 60 km)

Note that the table indicates the average changed values of five indices in different sizes of buffer zones (Zones 1 through 3) in NAHDs and a reference
zone in five global regions. It also shows their relative proportions to the changes in the respective reference zones. Globally, these recently constructed
dams were linked with reduced economic production, population, and greenness of areas within 50 km of the dams. While recently constructed dams
were associated with increased GDP in North America and urban areas in Europe, they were related with decreased economy (reflected by GDP and urban
land) and population for the Global South (Africa, Asia, and South America) and greenness for Africa. Furthermore, as distance increases from the
construction site to 50 km (from Zone 1 to Zones 2 and 3), while population decreased more, NTL increased less and urban land and greenness decreased
less, with GDP declining the most in the area of 5- to 20-km distance to the construction site.

Zone 1 (ΔNDVI ∼ 0.006 and 0.005, respectively). Africa dam size is a factor for quantifying the impacts. First, GDP of
and Asia experienced the most-significant decrease in green- the NAHDs decreased (ΔGDP < 0), while those of the refer-
ness for Zone 2 (ΔNDVI ∼ 0.004), followed by Europe ence zones of all sized dams increased; NAHDs of large dams
(ΔNDVI ∼ 0.003). Africa also had the highest decrease in had the largest GDP decrease when compared with reference
greenness for Zone 3 (ΔNDVI ∼ 0.002), followed by Europe zones (39%), in comparison to 10% and 27% of NAHDs
and Asia (ΔNDVI ∼ 0.001). All regions experienced of small and medium dams, respectively. Second, urban land
increased greenness in reference areas, with ΔNDVI of ∼0.005, cover decreased (ΔUrban < 0) for NAHDs but increased for
0.013, 0.014, 0.021, and 0.011) for Africa, Asia, Europe, North reference zones of all sizes of dams; NAHDs of medium and
America, and South America, respectively. In North America, small dams had a substantially larger decrease compared with
Zone 3 experienced increased NDVI, but the increase is much the reference zones (49% and 40%) than large dams
smaller than that of the respective reference areas (4%). (12%). Third, NTL increased (ΔNTL > 0) for NAHDs and
It should be noted that there are significant and positive cor- reference zones of all sizes of dams; however, the increases of
relations between ΔGDP, Δurban, ΔNTL, and Δpopulation for NAHDs were much smaller than the increases of their respec-
Zones 1, 2, and 3 and the reference zone, except for Δurban tive reference zones, with the maximum increase of 19% of the
and Δpopulation for Zone 1 (SI Appendix, Table S3). The posi- reference zone for NAHDs of the small dams.
tive correlations imply the possible synergistic effect between Population decreased within the NAHD zones of dams of all
economic activities (reflected by GDP, urban land, and NTL) sizes, but it increased in their reference areas. Population
and population. declined more in NAHDs of medium and small dams
(ΔPopulation ∼ 7.1 to ∼ 6.6) than around large dams
Impact of Different Sizes of Recently Constructed Hydropower Dams. (ΔPopulation ∼ 4). When compared with the reference zones,
Overall, NAHDs of all sizes of dams experienced less economic medium and small dams also showed a larger relative decline
development, indicated by negative or smaller changes in GDP, (45% and 49%) than that of the large dams (28%). While
NTL, and urban land compared to their respective reference population declined similarly in all NAHD zones for small
areas of 23%, 34%, and 8% (Table 2 and Fig. 4). However, dams (ΔPopulation ∼ 5 to ∼ 6), it declined more as distance

Fan et al. PNAS j 5 of 11

Recently constructed hydropower dams were associated with reduced https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108038119
economic production, population, and greenness in nearby areas
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Fig. 3. Impacts of hydropower dam construction on economy, population, and greenness in five global regions. Note that the dashed red lines refer to
the average value within the NAHD zones and reference zone. The boxes indicate one SD, and the whisker indicates two SDs. The outliers are defined as
observations outside two SDs and are not included for better presentation of the distribution. Hydropower dam construction was associated with less
economic development in NAHD zones than their reference areas at the global level, especially for the Global South, as indicated by the negative values
of ΔGDP, ΔUrban, and ΔNTL of NAHDs, in contrast to their positive values in the respective reference areas or small increased values in NAHDs over those
in reference areas. The decrease or smaller increase of the population indices in NAHDs is in contrast to the positive values of the reference areas. Green-
ness, measured by NDVI, decreased within NAHDs, with the highest reduction within 5-km distance of the dams. While recently constructed dams were
associated with increased GDP in North America and urban areas in Europe in nearby areas, they were related with decreased GDP, urban land, and pop-
ulation in the Global South and greenness in Africa. * at the label means the change for that buffer zone is significant (P < 0.001).

increased from medium and large dams (i.e., a significant entirely surprising, as human beings have long inhabited places
decrease in Zones 2 and 3 for medium dams [ΔPopulation ∼ 0, with easy access to water. Fang and Jawitz studied human pop-
6, and 7 for Zones 1, 2, and 3] and Zone 3 for large dams ulation distance to water in the United States from 1790 to
[ΔPopulation ∼ 1, 1, and 5 for Zones 1, 2, and 3]). 2010 and revealed that water became more important for
Greenness decreased in all NAHD zones, whereas it increased human settlement locations after industrialization (29). Kummu
in all reference areas, with ΔNDVI of 0.000, 0.001, and 0.002 et al. showed that more than half of the world’s population lives
for small, medium, and large dams and 0.012, 0.012, and 0.019 for within a 3-km distance of a freshwater body, whereas only 10%
their reference zones, respectively. Compared with reference zones, of the population lives farther than 10-km away (30). The dis-
large dams showed the highest decline (11%), followed by tinction among regions is noteworthy, with North America and
medium and small dams (8% and 0%). Small dams show similar Europe leading in economy produced and population hosted in
changes as the distance from the dam site increases (ΔNDVI ∼ NAHDs for all dams and South America topping others sub-
0.002, 0.000, and 0.000 for Zones 1, 2, and 3, respectively), stantially in economy and population in NAHDs for recently
whereas large dams illustrate the most-dramatic decreases in constructed dams. This finding is highly associated with the
greenness (ΔNDVI ∼ 0.008, 0.004, and 0.002, respectively). It intensified construction of dams in North America and Europe
appeared that dam construction was coupled with a decrease in in the 20th century and corresponds well with the industrial
greenness, with the largest decline within 5 km, a minor decline development of these nations vis-
a-vis the developing world,
within 20 km, and an insignificant change within 50-km radius which only started to industrialize in recent decades.
perimeters, notably for medium and large dams, whereas for Our second hypothesis regarding the different impacts in
small dams, the greenness only changed noticeably within 5 km. NAHDs compared to the reference zones, distinct patterns for
the Global South compared to the North and for dams of dif-
Discussion ferent sizes, and spatial differences in the impacts within
Our results support our first hypothesis that NAHDs are NAHD were also confirmed. Dam construction was associated
important locations for economy and population, despite occu- with reduced economic production, population, and greenness
pying a small proportion of the land area. This finding is not in NAHDs at the global level. While recently constructed dams

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https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108038119 Recently constructed hydropower dams were associated with reduced
economic production, population, and greenness in nearby areas
 Table 2. Impacts of hydropower dam constructions illustrated by average changed values of five indices of the buffer zones for
different sized dams
Dam size All Small Medium Large

䉭GDP (Million dollars)

Zone 1 (<5 km) 6,021,947 19% 9,139,494 29% 13,273,861 49% 20,071,921 34%
Zone 2 (5 to 20 km) 8,731,524 27% 327,899 1% 10,439,957 38% 29,266,543 50%
Zone 3 (20 to 50 km) 7,381,805 23% 3,825,735 12% 6,749,536 25% 21,468,156 37%
NAHD (0 to 50 km) 7,570,664 23% 3,073,038 10% 7,368,342 27% 22,623,952 39%
Reference Zone (50 to 60 km) 32,326,438 31,593,303 27,226,239 58,216,089
䉭Urban (km2)
Zone 1 (<5 km) 2.52 × 1008 49% 2 × 1008 47% 2 × 1008 51% 7 × 1008 49%
Zone 2 (5 to 20 km) 2.05 × 1008 40% 2 × 1008 44% 2 × 1008 49% 4 × 1008 26%
Zone 3 (20 to 50 km) 1.68 × 1008 33% 2 × 1008 39% 2 × 1008 49% 1 × 1008 9%
NAHD (0 to 50 km) 1.74 × 1008 34% 2 × 1008 40% 2 × 1008 49% 2 × 1008 12%
Reference Zone (50 to 60 km) 5.14 × 1008 5 × 1008 3 × 1008 1 × 1007
䉭NTL (DN)
Zone 1 (<5 km) 1.0 54% 0.8 38% 1.2 68% 0.9 44%
Zone 2 (5 to 20 km) 0.2 9% 0.3 16% 0.1 3% 0.2 10%
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Zone 3 (20 to 50 km) 0.1 7% 0.4 20% 0.0 1% 0.1 3%

NAHD (0 to 50 km) 0.2 8% 0.4 19% 0.0 0% 0.1 4%
Reference Zone (50 to 60 km) 1.9 2.0 1.8 2.1
䉭Pop (Person/km2)
Zone 1 (<5 km) 2.4 16% 6.1 45% 0.2 1% 1.3 9%

SUSTAINABILITY
Zone 2 (5 to 20 km) 5.2 35% 5.2 38% 6.3 40% 0.7 5%
Zone 3 (20 to 50 km) 6.9 46% 6.8 50% 7.4 47% 4.7 32%
NAHD (0 to 50 km) 6.6 45% 6.6 49% 7.1 45% 4.0 28%

SCIENCE
Reference Zone (50 to 60 km) 14.8 13.6 15.7 14.4
䉭NDVI (index number)
Zone 1 (<5 km) 0.004 34% 0.002 15% 0.005 44% 0.008 40%
Zone 2 (5 to 20 km) 0.002 15% 0.000 0% 0.003 23% 0.004 20%
Zone 3 (20 to 50 km) 0.001 4% 0.000 0% 0.001 5% 0.002 9%
NAHD (0 to 50 km) 0.001 6% 0.000 0% 0.001 8% 0.002 11%
Reference Zone (50 to 60 km) 0.013 0.012 0.012 0.019

Note that this table indicates the average changed values of five indices in different sizes of buffer zones (Zones 1 through 3) in NAHDs and reference
zones for different sizes of dams (small, medium, and large). It also shows their relative proportions to the changes in the respective reference zones.
While large dams were associated with significantly reduced GDP and greenness, small and medium dams were linked with more decrease in population
and urban land, whereas large and medium dams had noticeably less NTL in nearby areas.

were linked to some positive impacts for the Global North inexperienced in negotiating the benefits of dam construction
(e.g., increased GDP in North America and urban land in that can lead to increased GDP or urban land. For example,
Europe), they were related to reduced economic development Lee et al. pointed out the inadequate compensation provided
(reflected by GDP and urban land) and population in the to relocate indigenous communities to accommodate dam con-
Global South (Africa, Asia, and South America) and greenness struction in Malaysia and the need for greater participation of
in Africa. While NAHDs of large dams experienced reduced indigenous communities in the compensation process for large
GDP and greenness significantly, NAHDs of small and medium development projects (39). In another case, to construct the
dams witnessed more decrease in population and urban land, Chixoy hydroelectric dam in Guatemala, local communities
whereas NAHDs of large and medium dams had noticeably were forcefully displaced through violence and massacres under
lower NTL in NAHDs. Furthermore, as distance increases the military dictatorship, and people in the communities were
from the construction site to 50 km, while population decreased left in extreme poverty in the following decades (40). The find-
more, NTL increased less, and urban land and greenness ing that NAHDs of large dams suffered the biggest declines in
decreased less, with GDP declining the most in the area of 5- GDP seems to support the conclusion that larger dams tend to
to 20-km distance from the construction site. These global-scale benefit distant locations rather than nearby areas, as noted in
findings by region, dam size, and along the gradient from dam Fearnside and other studies (9). We also speculate that small-
sites to the edge of NAHDs together with case-based literature and medium-sized dams may tend to bring irrigation benefits to
advance our understanding of impacts of dam constructions, locals, resulting in less decreased GDP than that around large-
and they have important policy implications, as detailed below. sized dams. It is interesting that some research has shown posi-
Decrease in economy, population, and greenness is detected tive impacts on economic development illustrated by GDP
within NAHDs, vis-
a-vis the locations beyond, especially in the growth. For example, De Faria et al. found that countries that
Global South. This implies the need to pay attention to the live- built hydropower plants had greater GDP and tax revenues
lihoods of people who live in NAHDs. In particular, more eco- than countries that did not build dams (32). Furthermore, irri-
nomic development was generated in some zones of NAHDs in gated lands can benefit from dam construction, as they have
the Global North but not in any zones of NAHDs in the Global shown smaller GDP decreases during droughts in the whole
South. We suspect that population relocation from NAHDs to region of the Lower Mekong River Basin (38). However, case
reference areas in the Global South is highly associated with studies in other research have found that dam construction has
the decreased GDP and urban land cover. Furthermore, local led to huge social and environmental costs for people living
communities in NAHDs in the Global South may have been close to dams, such as the review of the construction of dams

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Recently constructed hydropower dams were associated with reduced https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108038119
economic production, population, and greenness in nearby areas
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Fig. 4. Impacts of dam construction on economy, population, and environment by dam size. Note that NAHD zones of all sized dams experienced less
economic development when compared with their respective reference areas, as indicated by changes in GDP, NTL, and urban land. Population and
greenness decreased in all NAHD zones of all sized dams, whereas they all increased in the reference areas.

for aluminum-smelting factories in Brazil; while the dam may population density is low, are different from those in heavily
have increased the electricity supply for the whole country, the populated areas in the Mekong River Basin. It is possible that
people who were directly affected have received little economic even corrected internally, the impact would be different.
benefit (9). Our findings caution us to consider the spatial dif- NAHDs also experienced decreased population density,
ferentiation of the benefits and losses of local environment and especially in Asia and South America and particularly around
population, despite the possible overall benefits of dam con- small and medium dams. This implies significant negative
struction at the country level. Additionally, we note that the dif- impacts on population around dam construction, highlighting
ferent impacts brought to an area may depend on the original the need to assist the relocated residents who are affected by
landscape (e.g., population density). The Global South has dam construction. There is a wealth of literature studying popu-
more croplands (45%) than the Global North (24%) but less lation relocation, including forced relocation, to accommodate
forest, grassland/shrubland, and built-up areas (34%, 18%, and construction of mega and large dams, including the important
0%) than the Global North (46%, 24%, and 1%) in the historical works on Kariba in Zambia by Scudder and Colson
NAHDs of the 631 dams (SI Appendix, Table S4). The differ- (31, 35), the more-recent research surrounding the Three
ences in original landscape settings may contribute to the dif- Gorges Dam in China (33, 37), and a study that evaluated the
ference in the five impacts. For example, the impacts of dams long-term (over 30 y) response of people relocated to make
of the same size commissioned in the Amazon, where way for the Kinzua Dam in the United States (550 people)

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https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108038119 Recently constructed hydropower dams were associated with reduced
economic production, population, and greenness in nearby areas
 (41). Dam construction often necessitates population relocation may have overestimated the changed values of the indices asso-
away from the NAHD due to water inundation. Our research ciated with dam construction for buffer zones/reference areas
revealed that relocation is prevalent at global scale, and it is when linked with multiple dams. Furthermore, using a circular
even more distinguished for small and medium dams. This radius around a dam for a buffer zone ignores the anisotropic
could be because the areas around smaller dams may have a footprint of dams, as rivers are inherently directional and linear
more-habitable environment and thus originally host a larger and partially responsible for the directional impacts on sur-
population very close to the dam construction site. Therefore, rounding land use and land cover change by dam construction
construction of smaller dams may lead to more population relo- (34). There is also possibility that the influenced area may be
cation. Our findings highlight the need to study the population extended beyond the 50-km radius. While there is a trade-off
impacts of small- and medium-size dam construction. Further- between “on-the-ground” realities and the tractability of assess-
more, in addition to the numbers of people relocated, research- ing impacts for a global-scale study, we acknowledge that this is
ers and policy makers should be sensitive to the extremely one of the limitations of our analysis. Future research may also
stressful and emotional experiences of the relocated popula- examine population dynamics comprehensively at the global
tion. Heming et al. highlighted the misery and hardship caused scale if data are available. Population in areas around dam con-
by involuntary relocation and the discrimination that the reset- struction sites is a result of three combined forces: 1) relocation
tled population encountered related to the construction of of the original population, 2) temporary migration of workers
China’s Three Gorges Dam (1994 through 2009) (33). Scudder who come to work on construction and then leave when it is
and Colson argued that people and communities respond to completed, and 3) migration of residents from other areas to
the stress of relocations in predictable ways, and policies can be
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dam areas before and after dams are completed, usually for job
formed to alleviate their distress (36). Furthermore, to deal opportunities in the area. As our study period covered 1 y
with relocation stress, Xi and Hwang noted that relocated resi- before construction and 3 y after completion, we captured the
dents have employed a variety of coping strategies, with the relocation of the original population and people who came to
most-effective one being emotion-focused coping strategies live in areas of the dams after their completion in the popula-
(37). While our research does not provide further analysis of tion change. We did not capture the temporary construction

SUSTAINABILITY
coping strategies, we echo the sentiment in these studies that migrant population in our analysis. In future research, we can
it is necessary to guide public policies to assist relocated consider the use of annual data to fully illustrate the population
populations given the negative impacts on these populations.

SCIENCE
dynamic before, during, and after the dam construction. Our
Dam construction appeared correlated with decreased analytical approach and the global spatial datasets in this paper
greenness, particularly around medium and large dams, with can also be used to evaluate the impacts of other large infra-
the largest decrease within 5 km. This is consistent with many structures, such as ports, highways, railroad station, etc. Future
case studies in the literature, confirmed again with this global research thus can be conducted to compare the differences of
study. The findings on the decreased greenness and population impacts of dams from other infrastructures at global and
in the nearby areas also echo studies that demonstrate impacts continental scales.
of dams on land cover change and population due to water
inundation within the 5-km buffer and population relocation Materials and Methods
(34, 42, 43). The decrease of NDVI may be attributed to defor- Study Area. Globally, the Asian and South American continents have become
estation during construction activities, which diminishes as the hot spots for dam construction (Fig. 1), contributing to 80% of the new hydro-
distance from the dam site increases and at the end of the con- power dams of medium and large sizes constructed since 2000 (4). A total of
struction. If so, NDVI may experience a decrease during dam 632 dams with an installed capacity of ≥1 MW were constructed after 2001
construction and then gradually increase after the dam begins and commissioned by 2015. Oceania had only one qualifying dam, with an
to operate. This pattern is mainly caused by the neighboring installed capacity of 40 MW, built during our study period. Therefore, we
land-cover and land-use transition. Specifically, nearby lands excluded this one dam from our analysis for the second research question,
may be converted from grassland/woodland to agricultural land because the statistical analysis that we would perform on Oceania would
due to the hydropower dam support for irrigation. In this case, be meaningless, as it would only reflect the actual value of that particular
dam (SI Appendix, Fig. S1 and Table S2).
the NDVI trajectory increases but may not reach the original
Because we are interested in dams’ impacts on areas close to the dams, we
magnitude before the construction starts. We did not conduct a define a nearby area as a circular area of 50-km radius around the dam location,
trend analysis for the annual NDVI change over the period following Hossain et al., who called the same area a “dam region.” In their study
from T1 to T2; that is beyond the scope of current study but of the impacts of 92 large dams in the US, Hossain et al. found a zone larger
important to address in future research. than 50-km radius overlapped extensively with neighboring dams (44); there-
There are some limitations of this study due to data avail- fore, 50 km offered the best approach for identifying a statistically significant
ability, methodology constraints, and the scope of the paper stand-alone mesoscale effect with minimal overlap from neighboring dams (42).
that suggest possible future research directions. While we were Our second research question is to explore the impact of dam construction
able to examine the economies and populations in NAHDs for along the spatial gradient from the construction site to the edge of the nearby
area; thus, we use a range of proximity distances that have been widely used
all of the 7,155 hydropower dams listed in the Global Database
in buffer zone analysis for evaluating the human and ecological impacts (e.g.,
of Power Plants (4), our second research question was limited ref. 45). As mentioned in the introduction, Zones 1, 2, and 3 refer to the areas
to dams constructed since 2001 due to the availability of spa- of distance <5 km, 5 to 20 km, and 20 to 50 km from the dam construction
tially gridded data. Nevertheless, our detailed analysis of five site, respectively. We chose 5 km as the smallest buffer radius, based on the
quantitative measures includes all of the 631 hydropower dams influencing distance of land use and land cover impact identified by others as
(>1 MW) that were constructed since 2001 and were commis- 5 km or smaller (42, 43). We further set the areas beyond 50 km (radius 50 to
sioned by 2015. Therefore, our findings present a general and 60 km) from the dam sites as reference areas, so we can use them to compare
comprehensive picture for all dams over 1-MW capacity. More- the impacts of dams in Zones 1, 2, and 3. We do acknowledge that if a refer-
over, our current analyses are performed over two discrete peri- ence zone partly falls into the NAHD of another dam, there is a limitation of it
ods instead of as a consecutive time series and thus fail to serving as a reference zone due to the impact of another dam.
detect any trend. Furthermore, our analysis did not consider Data. There exist several popular and widely used global dam databases, such
the influence of two or more dams located in a distance smaller as the aforementioned GOODD, Global Reservoir and Dam Database (GRanD),
than 120 km. Our data shows that one-third of the 631 dams Future Hydropower Reservoir and Dams Database (FHReD), and WRI Global
are within a 5-km distance from another dam, and 83% of these Database of Power Plants. Among these databases, the georeferenced
dams are within a 50-km distance from another dam. Thus, we GOODD contains the highest number of identified and recorded dams, up to

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economic production, population, and greenness in nearby areas
 38,667 by 2020 (1). Yet, GOODD does not provide any information about the population by total population to get the proportion of population located in
dam other than its geolocation (30). In the original GRanD database, a total of NAHDs of the newly constructed dams for that region. To calculate the
6,862 reservoirs/dams were manually inspected and verified with critical reser- proportion of GDP in NAHDs, we use a similar method as for population.
voir/dam properties included (e.g., storage capacity [m3]) (46). An additional We assessed economy, population, and greenness in nearby areas of
458 reservoirs/dams were added into the GRanD database in 2016 (47). In recently constructed dams to answer research question 2. To check the impacts
2015, the FHReD database was released, and it contains 3,700 dams with asso- of dams, we subtracted values in T1 (i.e., 1 y before the dam construction)
ciated information (2). WRI’s Global Database of Power Plants includes from those in T2 (i.e., 3 y after the commission), as in Eq. 1:
7,155 global hydropower plants with detailed information on dams, such as
installed capacity, geolocation, purpose, status, commission year, and river ΔImpibkΔT ¼ VibkT2  VibkT1 , [1]
basin (4). We chose to use WRI data as we used installed capacity (MW) and where VibkT1 represents the average value of variable i in T1 in buffer zone b
years of commission to select the dams for our analysis, and the database is of dam k and VibkT2 represents the average value of a variable i in T2 in buffer
relatively up to date compared to others, as it was updated in 2018. zone b of dam k. Here, i represents one of the five indices that are measured,
To extract data for our five indices—GDP, urban land, population, NTL, and b represents Zones 1, 2, and 3 and NAHD (the sum of Zones 1, 2, and 3),
and NDVI—we used several global databases (SI Appendix, Table S2). GDP by respectively; k represents one of the selected dams. A positive value for
purchasing power parity data were obtained from the annual GDP dataset ΔImpibk(T2-T1) indicates an increased value, whereas a negative value for
derived from national and subnational reported data with temporal interpo-
ΔImpibk(T2-T1) indicates a decreased value of Vibk from T1 to T2. Here we use 1
lation and extrapolation (48). These GDP data were based on subnational
y before dam construction as T1 to capture the original state of the location in
data for 85 countries, which covers 85% global population and 92% of global
five variables. We chose 3 y after the commission of dam as T2 to evaluate the
GDP in 2015. It should be noted that due to availability of the latest year of
stabilized impact of dam construction. Biological systems generally take
2015 for the dataset, we analyzed the change of GDP only on 448 dams (i.e.,
much-longer time to stabilize to reflect the impact of dam construction, as
71% of 631 dams that were commissioned on 2012 and before). Using data of
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Kingsford found that the water annual flow influence is initially 2% but
MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)/Terra+Aqua Land
increases to 21% within 23 y due to dam construction (18). However, Song
Cover Type Yearly L3 (MCD12Q1.006 Product) with 500-m spatial resolution
and Mo, who studied the temporal perspective to dam management in terms
and 1-y temporal resolution from the US Geological Survey (USGS), urban land
of dam influence on the fishery, found that about 90% of fish biomass loss
data were extracted from the class Urban and Built-up Lands, following the
Annual International Geosphere–Biosphere Program classification (49). occurs within 5 y of dam construction (60). On average, dam construction for
Remote-sensing data on NTL emission of the earth provided researchers an the 631 dams took 6 y, and T2 is set at 3 y after commission (i.e., on average, 9
alternative source of urbanization, population density, and economic growth y after construction), making it a reasonable time to evaluate the stabilized
(50). The NTL data reflects the artificial light used in our built environment, impacts of dam construction, particularly on economy (GDP, urban land, and
including buildings, transportation infrastructures, and other facilities. Annual NTL), population, and greenness. We assume that the nearby area would have
NTL data at 1-km spatial resolution was based on Defense Meteorological Pro- followed the same general trend as the larger region (i.e., the reference area)
gram Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) and Suomi National Polar- from T1 to T2 if the dam had not been constructed. Therefore, the values of
orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (51–54). This indices in reference area provided contextual information on how the area
dataset was intercalibrated to reduce inconsistency among sensors using the would have evolved from T1 to T2. Specifically, if the values for ΔImpibkΔT of
method described in Zhao et al. (55). Population density data were derived reference areas and NAHD zones have opposite signs (i.e., positive versus neg-
from the LandScan with 1-km spatial resolution and 1-y temporal resolution ative or vice versa), it implies that dam construction may have led to the oppo-
from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (56, 57). NDVI was derived from MODIS site trend of the indices’ value for NAHDs. For small- and medium-sized dams
Vegetation Indices (MOD13Q1.006 Product) with 250-m spatial resolution and for which we do not have the construction year, we used 6 y before the com-
16-d temporal resolution provided by the USGS (58). We masked out water mission year as T1, assuming it takes about 5 y for the construction. Readers
area using maximum water extents derived from Global Surface Water prod- will be able to access the associated code and materials at the following link:
ucts provided by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre for NDVI https://github.com/choms516/extract_dam_radius (61).
data (47). The annual averaged NDVI was then calculated by averaging all
NDVI data of the year via Google Earth Engine. Each value is summarized for
Data Availability. Associated code and materials have been deposited in
Zones 1, 2, and 3 and the reference zone. We use NDVI change as an indicator
GitHub (https://github.com/choms516/extract_dam_radius) (61). All other
of greenness fluctuations around the hydropower dams, as NDVI has been
used to imply environmental changes in some previous research (59). study data are included in the article and/or supporting information.

Methods. We evaluated the economy and population in nearby areas of dams ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We thank the funding support of NASA
(80NSSC17K0259 and 80NSSC20K0740) and NSF (1639115). We appreciate Kris-
to address the first research question. Using the population density data
tine Blakeslee who provided editorial assistance for improving the manuscript.
(1-km resolution), we first calculated the total population of a region by sum- We thank Yuyu Zhou at Iowa State University who shared with us the proc-
ming up the population values of all 1 km × 1 km grid cells in a region. Using essed data of global nighttime light images (1992–2018). None of the above
the dam dataset, we then drew NAHDs around all (newly constructed) dams. agencies and individuals should be held responsible for the findings and
We calculated the NAHD population of a region by summing up the popula- results presented in this paper as they are the sole responsibility of the
tions of grid cells that are in NAHDs of a region. We then divided the NAHD authors.

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economic production, population, and greenness in nearby areas