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Montreaux Chocolate - Sensitivity Analysis - Sec F Group 3

This document contains a sensitivity analysis for the Montreaux Chocolate USA case. It lists parameters like consumer awareness, distribution, and repeat rates that were chosen for the analysis. The analysis shows a 30.4% trial rate, 4.507 million trial households, retail sales of $46.95 million, and that the project would be financially viable since sales exceed the $30 million hurdle rate. Formulas for calculating the metrics are also provided.

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AMARTYA KUMAR DAS PGP 2023-25 Batch
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160 views4 pages

Montreaux Chocolate - Sensitivity Analysis - Sec F Group 3

This document contains a sensitivity analysis for the Montreaux Chocolate USA case. It lists parameters like consumer awareness, distribution, and repeat rates that were chosen for the analysis. The analysis shows a 30.4% trial rate, 4.507 million trial households, retail sales of $46.95 million, and that the project would be financially viable since sales exceed the $30 million hurdle rate. Formulas for calculating the metrics are also provided.

Uploaded by

AMARTYA KUMAR DAS PGP 2023-25 Batch
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Case - Montreaux Chocolate USA

Section F - Group 3
Team Members - Aditya, Kruti, Parshva, Shivani & Shubham

Sensitivity Analysis

Case Facts from Exhibit 5

Trial Purchase Rate


Definitely would buy 23%
Probably would buy 40%
No of Households (in Mn) 120
Penetration Rate 92%

Consumer Awareness
Low Support 14%
Medium Support 17%
High Support 20%
Pricing $4.49

ACV (Distribution)
Low 60%
Medium 65%
High 79%
Retail Margin (1-65%) 35%

Repeat Rate by Product


Mediocre Product 28%
Average Product 33%
Excellent Product 38%
Repeat Purchase Occasions (units) 4

Parameters for Sensitivity Analysis Choose from Dropdown


Awareness 17%
ACV Distribution 79%
Repeat Rate 33%

Particulars Amount
1. Trial Rate 30.40%
2. Marketing Adjusted Trial Rate 3.76%
3. Trial Households (in Mn) 4.507
4. Repeat Volume 5.950
5. Total Purchases (in Mn) 10.46
6. Retail Sales Value (in Mn) 46.95
7. Sales Volume (in Mn) 30.52
8. Hurdle Rate (in Mn) 30
9. Whether Financially Viable? Yes
Formula
(Definites*80% + Probables*30%)
(Trial Rate* %Awareness* %ACV * Penetration)
(Households * Marketing Adjusted Trial Rate)
(Trial Households * % of Households Repurchasing * Repeat Purchase Occasions)
(Trial Purchases + Repeat Purchases)
(Total Purchase * Pricing)
(Retail Sales * {1 - Retail Margin})

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