DRAFT

Nature Based Solutions in Africa

Summary Report
 Nature Based Solutions in Africa
Summary Report

2 of 34 Nature Based Solutions in Africa

Summary Report
10 February 2021, draft
Nature Based Solutions in Africa
Summary Report

Client WWF Netherlands

Contact Bart Geenen

Reference

Keywords Nature-based solutions, Africa, Rwanda, Zambia, Kenya

Document control

Version 0.1

Date 18-03-2021

Project nr. 12206571-002

Document ID 11206571-002-0001

Pages 34

Classification

Status draft
This is a draft report, intended for discussion purposes only. No part of this report may be relied upon by
either principals or third parties.

Author(s)

Doc. version Author Reviewer Approver Publish

0.1 Bobby Russell Bregje van Harm Duel

Vincent van Zelst Wesenbeeck
Sien Kok

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 Contents

1 Introduction 5
1.1 The justification for Nature-based Solutions in Africa 5
1.2 This report 6

2 Narratives 7

3 Roadmap 9
3.1 Roadmap – Kigali’s urban wetlands 9
3.2 Roadmap – Zamiba’s Lukunga swamp 12
3.3 Roadmap – Kenya’s coastal mangroves 16
3.4 Summary roadmap of three cases 19

4 References 21

A Factsheet – Kigali’s urban wetlands 23

A.1 Drivers at the national level 23
A.2 Pressures in Kigali’s urban wetlands 23
A.3 State 24
A.4 Impacts 24
A.5 Response 24

B Factsheet – Zamiba’s Lukunga swamp 27

B.1 Drivers at the national level 27
B.2 Pressures in the Lukanga Swamp 27
B.3 State 28
B.4 Impacts 28
B.5 Response 28

C Factsheet – Kenya’s coastal mangroves 29

C.1 Drivers at the national level 29
C.2 Pressures in coastal ecosystems 29
C.3 State 29
C.4 Impact 30
C.5 Response 31

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1 Introduction

1.1 The justification for Nature-based Solutions in Africa

Over the coming century world population will continue to grow with Africa accounting for 25%
of the global population by 2050 reaching 4.5 billion people by 2100. Eleven of the world’s
megacities1 will be situated in Africa by 2050. Six of those megacities will be coastal, and
therefore vulnerable to climate change induced sea level rise and flooding. Climate change will
also continue to have severe impacts on droughts and increased rainfall intensity, presenting
challenges to water security and safety. Africa needs to urgently invest in strengthening the
resilience of freshwater ecosystems and critical human water systems to reduce risks for
hundreds of millions of people.

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are proposed as a means to mitigate and adapt to climate
change, while also addressing the biodiversity crisis. NbS are interdisciplinary, cross-sectoral
and deliver a myriad of co-benefits. With respect to water security and flooding, they alleviate
both the impacts of floods and droughts. Several gaps hinder rapid mainstreaming of NbS in
flood risk management, such as institutional challenges of developing and maintaining cross-
sectoral interventions in present sectoral institutional environments. Whereas NbS may not
always be less costly in construction and maintenance, their long-term economic and social
benefits and their sustainability, strongly outweigh hard engineering interventions. However, in
commonly used assessment methods to compare between alternatives, economic benefits of
NbS are often not, or poorly, considered. To tackle implementation gaps, six enablers for NbS
have been defined: technical innovation, adaptive management, institutional embedding, multi-
stakeholder approach, capacity building and financing (Figure 1). These enablers form the
basis for this report and are discussed further in subsequent chapters.

Figure 1-1. The six enablers for Nature-based Solutions2.

——————————————
1
Cities with more than 10 million residents. https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/april-2019-july-
2019/africa%E2%80%99s-megacities-magnet-investors
2
https://www.ecoshape.org/en/enablers/

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 Under the Blue Heart of Africa and with the momentum created by GCA, WWF is spearheading
the establishment of a high-level group of African governments to champion NbS across Africa
and around the world. To support the establishment of this group, WWF is working with
Deltares as a strategic partner on Nature-based Solutions to identify three high potential
examples of NbS across three countries, specifically Rwanda, Zambia and Kenya towards
water security through four pillars along the water value chain: promoting NbS, safeguarding
the sources and flows, promoting a One Health agenda and ensuring sustainable freshwater
fisheries.

1.2 This report

This report provides a high-level assessment of the potential for NbS in three African countries,
namely Kenya, Rwanda and Zambia. In each country NbS are proposed to tackle socio-
economic challenges, such as urban flood risk (Kigali, Rwanda), fresh water availability and
energy supply (Lukanga wetland, Zambia) and preservation of coastal ecosystems to mitigate
flooding, ensure sustainable fisheries and maintain tourism values (Kenya) (Figure 2). In
Rwanda, the urban wetlands of Kigali are being restored for city greening, flood attenuation
and recreation and are at an advanced stage of planning and nearing implementation. In
Zambia, WWF has worked extensively with the Government on the Lukunga swamps and the
wider Kafue River Basin, and now seeks to focus a nature-based approach on the conservation
of the swamps. In Kenya, the coastal mangroves, although well studied, have not as yet been
framed in the context of NbS and present a case with great potential to initiate a new approach.

Figure 1-2. The three Nature-based Solutions case studies.

These cases showcase potential of NbS to have societal, environmental, economic and
biodiversity impacts. The three cases illustrate the large potential for NbS, as they all present
different challenges that can partly be solved by making use of different ecosystems and their
services. Cases also represent different stages of maturity of NbS implementation. Hence, the
path forward for mainstreaming, upscaling and full-scale implementation will differ case by
case. This report presents a brief narrative for each case study (Chapter 2). Cases are
described in more detail in Appendices A, B and C that outline the drivers, pressures, state,
impacts and response (DPISR) for each case. Chapter 3 provides a roadmap that looks at
necessary steps forward by assessing the status of the six enablers for each case and gives
some examples from across the globe of similar projects. Africa wide recommendations for
upscaling and mainstreaming NbS are given as well.

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2 Narratives

The narratives provide a summary overview of each case study, describing the following five
aspects:
1. Societal problem and situation?
2. How ecosystem contributes to addressing the problem?
3. What can be done to maintain this function?
4. Why this is a valid investment?
5. How can it be scaled-up and what are future actions prospects?

Kigali’s urban wetlands

Kigali experiences regular flooding during rainstorms, due to the runoff from the surrounding
urbanized hills, with the stormwater concentrating at the valley bottom in former wetlands.
These floods cause disruption to traffic, preventing all travel between hillside communities 3.
Urbanized land in Kigali has tripled in 25 years and with more urban growth and densification
expected in the future, flooding problems are likely to intensify, especially with climate change 4.
In Kigali, the valley bottom wetlands have been mostly reclaimed for small scale agriculture,
light industrial areas and road transport. Thus, the former wetlands have lost both their
ecological value and their retention capacity. Restoration of the wetlands and their stormwater
‘sponge’ function may at least partly mitigate flooding in Kigali. Hence, the Government of
Rwanda, with the support of the World Bank and other donors, are preparing urban wetland
rehabilitation plans with the intention to enhance the flood buffering capacity, improve water
quality and enhance urban living through the provision of green recreational space 5. Therefore,
strong national and international commitment to invest in Kigali’s wetlands as NbS is already
achieved6. Given the planned expansion of the Kigali urban area, there is interest to scale up
to other wetlands across the city. These urban NbS can constitute an important show case for
Africa and the urban growth expected over this century.

Zambia’s Lukanga swamp

Hydropower provides 50% of all power in Zambia. ZESCO’s Kafue Gorge Lower hydropower
dam in the Kafue river downstream of the Lukanga swamp is the main source of power for
Lusaka, the capital of Zambia and home to 3.3 million people. Drought in recent years
illustrated the sensitivity of this system to drought, with production dropping to 66%, resulting
in prolonged power outages. The Kafue river also contributes to water security, providing urban
drinking water and irrigation water for large agricultural schemes. Upstream wetlands play an
essential role in providing a steady base flow to the Kafue river and acting as natural water
retention areas. To increase resilience to extended periods of drought, reducing water needs
and increasing retention capacity in the system is key. This can be done by increasing
upstream infiltration and buffering capacity through land use management and conservation of
wetlands and vegetation. In the Kafue river basin, the Lukanga swamp is particularly important.
The wetland provides approximately 1/3 of water in the Kafue downstream of Lukanga, and
stores excess water during wet years, which it slowly releases in dry years. Presently, these
services rendered by the Lukanga swamp are threatened. Main threats are constituted by 1)
unsustainable extraction of water by large agricultural schemes, 2) increasing periods of
drought due to climate change and 3) land degradation, encroachment and siltation in the
Lukanga Swamp, leading to reduced storage capacity. Conservation and protection of Lukanga

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3
Ministry of Environment (2018)
4
Government of Rwanda (2020).
5
Macfarlane et al (2020).
6
Macfarlane (2019), Gakuba (2012), Nemus (2018)

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 is a valid NbS investment to ensure energy security and water security downstream. There are
also attractive co-benefits such as securing sustainable local livelihoods and protecting
biodiversity. Priority interventions include development of a conservation and management
plan, establishment of protection status and establishment of a management authority.

Kenya’s coastal mangroves

Mangroves are omnipresent along Kenyan coastlines, totalling 61,000 ha across five counties,
with Mombasa having a significant population in close proximity to the mangroves. Between
1985 and 2009 Kenya has lost 20% of its mangrove forest. This declining trend could be due
to two factors: 1) anthropogenic factors such as overexploitation for wood products and land
encroachment for urban and agricultural development and 2) natural factors, such as the
weather phenom El Niño, which causes heavy rainfall and thus high river discharges and
sediment influx causing siltation of the mangrove forests. Despite this pressure, mangroves
and coral reefs provides many ecosystem services. For example, they act as a buffer to coastal
storms and extreme river run-off, thereby limiting flood impact. Additionally, they trap sediment,
store carbon, provide a nursery for fish and shellfish species and constitute the basis for a
considerable tourism industry. In the future, population growth and climate change are likely to
put more pressure on the remaining mangroves. Climate change will induce sea level rise and
increase the frequency and intensity of flooding and periods of extreme drought. Mangrove and
coral reef loss heavily influences long-term geomorphological development of the coast,
leaving the coastal zone fully exposed to waves and surges, potentially resulting in severe land-
loss and extended flooding. All these factors result in reduction of total available suitable
mangrove habitat and increase stresses on persisting mangroves. At a national level the
importance of conserving coastal ecosystems is acknowledged in multiple visions and actions
plans, such as the national mangrove ecosystem management plan. Although there have been
pilot schemes, the scaling up of the conservation and restoration of mangroves requires a
combined top-down and bottom-up approach. The top-down approach would entail full
integration of mangroves and reefs in coastal protection strategies and spatial planning at the
national level and capacity building and increasing awareness at the local level. Bottom-up
activities can range from community capacity building and awareness raising to transformation
of livelihoods, including mixed mangrove aquaculture. We are in a critical pivoting point in time,
where there is still time and (in most places) space available to fully integrate NbS in Kenya.

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3 Roadmap

After almost ten years of NbS implementation, six enablers were identified under the EcoShape
programme, that are instrumental in the creation, implementation and upscaling of these
projects. The six enablers address the need for a holistic and replicable approach that takes
into account technical learning, stakeholder needs, institutional setting, local capacity, project
management and the business case. The enablers can be used as a framework upon which to
replicate and upscale NbS in African countries. Therefore, the Roadmap for each of the three
case studies is described in the context of the six enablers. Note that Annex A, B and C provide
the Factsheets for each case giving the current situation. The Roadmap is based on the
baseline described there.

3.1 Roadmap – Kigali’s urban wetlands

The NbS being applied in Kigali are an important test case for Africa and the urban growth
expected over this century. The NbS approach is already well underway in Kigali, and
represents a mature situation well positioned to expand the concept and therefore we
recommend the following steps in the roadmap for upscaling the wetland restoration.

1. Technology and system knowledge

1 Detailed Wetlands Rehabilitation Plans already exist for some of the wetlands in Kigali,
forming a strong understanding of the system and identifying alternatives for NbS.
Completed7.
2 Stakeholders review the World Bank’s flood modelling assessment for the three pilot
wetlands in Kigali (L. Nyabugogo, Rwintare-Rugenge and Gikondo) to evaluate
potential in attenuating floods of each alternative. Already underway8.
3 Initiation of the detailed design process, based on the results of the flood modelling
assessment, to refine the selection and design of the three pilot wetlands in Kigali (L.
Nyabugogo, Rwintare-Rugenge and Gikondo). This will include the tender package for
implementation. Already planned.
4 Government stakeholders develop generic wetland rehabilitation design features that
can be applied to other wetlands without external consultants, thus enabling the scaling
up across Rwanda. The key factor is to identify the restoration measures and structures,
which are most cost-effective and easily replicable. To be taken up.
5 We recommend that future wetland restoration planning in Rwanda places a stronger
emphasis on enhancing biodiversity benefits. This undoubtedly requires improved
knowledge on the newly created ecosystems via monitoring and evaluation. To be
taken up.
6 During the upscaling of NbS in Rwanda, we also encourage the re-greening of the
upstream riparian zones and hillside eucalyptus plantations, focusing on indigenous
forest species to enhance the sponge effect and reduce runoff. Partly underway under
the Landscape Restoration and Integrated Water Resources Management Project9.

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7
Macfarlane, et al 2020.
8
Deltares, 2020.
9
https://www.iucn.org/news/eastern-and-southern-africa/201906/rwanda-ministry-environment-launches-a-new-
landscape-restoration-project-preserve-sebeya-and-other-catchments

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 2. Multi-stakeholder approach
1 Currently the wetlands restoration activities are being led in a multi-stakeholder process
by the Rwanda Environmental Management Agency (REMA), in collaboration with other
stakeholders via the Kigali Flood Control Task Force, which members include the
Rwanda Water Resources Board, City of Kigali authority, Ministry of Infrastructure,
amongst others. It is the ideal vehicle for expanding the restoration work to other
wetlands within Kigali or into other secondary cities. Already underway.

3. Management, monitoring and maintenance

1 Government of Rwanda implement the hydrological and geohydrological monitoring of
wetlands as recommended under the World Bank RUDPII to enrich the knowledge base
on wetlands hydrology and the performance of the NbS. Already planned10.
2 Additionally, we recommend that the Government of Rwanda also monitor the
ecosystem restoration to evaluate biodiversity enhancement and ecosystem
functioning. Needs developing.
3 We recommend that REMA monitor the impact of the restored wetlands on water
quality, which is an important goal of the wetland restoration. Needs developing.
4 Maintenance of the wetlands has been estimated at USD55/Ha/Yr or around USD
8,000/Yr per wetland11. The maintenance plan needs to be defined, stating how the
wetlands are to be maintained and by whom. Needs developing.

4. Institutional embedding
1 A strong institutional environment already exists in Rwanda with wetlands being
protected by Prime Ministerial decree, declaring some 6% as unconditional use, 74%
as conditional use and 20% having full protection. Thus, providing a strong basis for
NbS in the wetlands. Already in place.
2 The Government of Rwanda published a new environment and climate change policy,
which provides a good basis for sustainable ecosystem management and green
growth12. Although it does not explicitly refer to NbS it does provide the enabling
framework to realise such solutions in Rwanda. Already in place.

5. Business case
1 REMA requires support in defining the ‘business case’ in order to secure capital
investment and structural funding for wetland maintenance. Current preliminary cost
estimates for the wetland rehabilitation range from USD40,000/Ha to USD60,000/Ha
for construction and earth works. Whilst USD55/Ha/Yr is estimated for maintenance.
Presenting costs that is not easily absorbed by the Agency, if scaling up is to be
realized. Therefore, we recommend that the Government of Rwanda carries out a cost-
benefit analysis as part of the detailed design process. To be developed.
2 Based on the direct and indirect benefits realized by the pilot wetlands, develop a
prioritized and phased rehabilitation plan for other wetlands within Kigali (focusing on
the planned eastward extension of the city), upland/riparian regreening and other urban
wetlands in secondary cities. To be developed
3 Lobby potential partners and financiers seeking funding and synergies:
a. Bralirwa (a Heineken company), committed to protecting water resources in
Rwanda13.

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10
Deltares (2020).
11
Macfarlane, et al (2020).
12

http://www.fonerwa.org/sites/default/files/Rwanda%20National%20Environment%20and%20Climate%20Change%20
Policy%202019.pdf
13
https://bralirwa.co.rw/sustainability-2/babw/

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 b. Fonerwa (Rwanda Green Fund), committed to green growth by investing in public
and private environment and climate change projects 14.
c. Rwanda Green Investment Facility (RGIF), newly announced green bank model to
invest in climate adaptation15.
d. Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP), committed to
eradication of poverty, promotion of economic growth, and reversal of
environmental degradation in the Nile Equatorial Lakes Region 16.
e. Global Environmental Facility already committed to financing wetland rehabilitation
and other urban NbS in Kigali through the World Bank’s Rwanda Urban
Development Project II17.
f. Africa Adaptation Acceleration Program (AAAP), a joint initiative of the African
Development Bank and the Global Center on Adaptation to mobilize $25 billion to
scale up and accelerate climate change adaptation actions across Africa 18.
To be developed.

6. Capacity building
1 Capacity building to increase awareness of the philosophy and possibilities of NbS in
Rwanda is already embedded in the activities of the Rwanda Urban Development
Project II. Already in place.
2 We would recommend, that WWF consult further with Rwanda Environmental
Management Agency on further capacity needs, which may be of a more technical
nature (wetland monitoring) and to also look how to involve upcoming generations in
NBS through university educational programs but also in raising more general
awareness in local communities. To be developed.
3 Finally, we recommend that WWF leverage the experience of the Rwanda
Environmental Management Agency in creating opportunities for south-south learning
on NBS for other African Cities, focusing on technical, institutional, regulatory and
financial lessons, thus assisting in scaling up NBS. To be developed.

Global example
An example are the urban wetlands in Colombo, Sri Lanka which have been supported by GFDRR. The
Metro Colombo Urban Development Project19 invested in Colombo’s public spaces, wetlands, and
infrastructure to improve the flood protection for 232,000 residents and improving the quality of life of over
6 million people. Revitalized public parks, spaces and wetlands enhance livability of the city whilst aiding
in flood control. To achieve this the gravity drainage capacity was increased to 185 cubic meters per
second; two micro-drainage projects implemented to provide protection to localized areas (10-year return
period); 45km of roads and drainage rehabilitated; and the primary canals connecting wetlands were
improved. Another example is the Sponge City approach in China20. Conceived by Professor Kongjian
Yu, the approach is an integrated urban water management strategy linking traditionally engineered
drainage, Sustainable Urban Drainage System, rehabilitated wetlands and public parks to mitigate
flooding, water pollution and water scarcity in a rapidly urbanizing country. So far 30 cities have been part
of this initiative.

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14
http://www.fonerwa.org/
15
https://www.newtimes.co.rw/news/how-rwanda-plans-raise-11bn-climate-ambitions
16
https://nelsap.nilebasin.org/index.php/en/
17
https://www.thegef.org/projects-faceted?f[]=field_country:135
18
https://www.afdb.org/en/news-and-events/press-releases/new-african-development-bank-gca-initiative-will-
galvanize-25-billion-scale-african-climate-adaptation-40567
19
https://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2018/09/24/metro-colombo-urban-development-project
20
https://earth.org/sponge-cities-could-be-the-answer-to-impending-water-crisis-in-china/

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3.2 Roadmap – Zamiba’s Lukunga swamp
Over the past decade there have been some initiatives regarding conservation of Lukanga, but
to date these have not yet reached maturity. To speed up this process, we recommend the
following actions.

1. Technology and system knowledge

1. Develop hydrological studies to understand the hydrology of Lukanga and its relation to
the larger Kafue Basin. Completed
2. Extend hydrological studies particularly in relation to Lukanga’s relationship with Kafue
basin, including scenario analysis regarding external trends like climate and changing
upstream water use and various Lukanga conservation scenarios. Completed
3. Analyze socio-economic trends, institutional setting, land and resource use in the area.
Include an assessment of sustainable resource use levels, current and expected
resource use based on existing livelihoods models21. To be developed
4. Develop a community-based resource management and conservation plan (ZMERIP),
including physical interventions, sustainable livelihood models and a sustainable land
use plan. Already underway

Community-based resource management and conservation plan

To reverse the negative impact of unsustainable resource and land use on Lukanga, identification and
viability assessment of alternative livelihood models is needed, as well as a plan to introduce and scale
these models in the area. Possibly attractive sustainable business models in the area include
reforestation, management of (re)forested areas, sustainable agriculture and development of eco-tourism.
To restore and conserve ecological and hydrological integrity, physical interventions may include e.g.
protection of riparian zones; trapping sediments suspended in water from leaving the swamp (e.g. using
bio-based permeable dams); dredging sediments to retain retention capacity; using dredged sediments
to heighten agricultural areas and improve fertility of soils; restore hydrological connectivity e.g. with weirs
and culverts. Furthermore, to steer population growth and infrastructure development in a sustainable
way, a sound land use and infrastructure development plan is needed to ensure infrastructure does not
impair the hydrological and ecological function of the swamp and the wider Lukanga watershed (for
example: Figure 3.1) .

Figure 3.1 Priority areas for NbS in Lukanga

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21
At present, key livelihoods within the area include fishing, charcoal production, basketry, agriculture (livestock &
cultivation). Particularly the latter poses a key threat to the ecosystem.

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 2. Multi-stakeholder approach
1. Use a multi-stakeholder approach to ensure viability of the ZMERIP and increase local
and financial support. This should include an elaborate stakeholder mapping, including
stakeholders within Lukanga, upstream water users, downstream beneficiaries,
institutional stakeholders and potential financiers 22. To be developed
2. Engage with local communities, authorities and downstream users to identify shared
interests and create a vision for future use of Lukanga Swamp. To be developed

3. Management, monitoring and maintenance

1. Set up an implementation, management and maintenance plan. Responsibilities of this
authority could include supporting and/ or ensuring compliance with the overall Lukanga
Management plan (e.g. urban and infrastructure developments and land use) and
maintenance of physical interventions. To be developed.
2. Develop a monitoring plan. Key indicators to assess over time could include
hydrological factors, ecological factors and socio-economic factors. To be developed.

4. Institutional embedding
1. For the day-to-day management and coordination, we recommend establishment of a
Lukanga Management Authority, e.g. existing of representatives from Lukanga’s
Community Resource Boards and relevant ministries/ agencies. To be developed.
2. Install an independent monitoring agency for monitoring implementation, compliance,
natural status and impact of interventions and provide the management authority with
information. To be developed.
3. Embed the land use management plan in urban/ infrastructure planning procedure
including permitting processes. To be developed.

5. Business case
1. Estimate initial capital investment expenditures (CAPEX) and operational expenditures
(OPEX)23. This provides key input to development of rationale for investment,
identification of funding and development of a financial plan. To be developed
2. Identify potential funding sources and substantiate their rationale for investment (see
textbox). Already underway, to be continued
3. Develop a financing model. As implementation and operation of ZMERIP will likely
include many different activities and funding and financing sources, a financial model
that combines and manages all these funds may be valuable, to reduce complexity,
increase cohesion and (financial) sustainability. To be developed
4. Financing of the capital and operation expenditure (CAPEX/OPEX) remains to be
defined. Potential funding sources do exist and need to be consulted on their particular
financing criteria and initial interest. These may include:
a. CAPEX: Financiers may include WB, GEF, GFDRR or GCF or bilateral donors. Of
these GCF has already committed USD 90 million for climate adaptation and
renewable energy investments in Zambia 24. Again the Africa Adaptation
Acceleration Program (AAAP), presents an interesting financing opportunity.
OPEX: A business case for a potential operating cost model is given below.
To be developed.
——————————————
22 Since 2017, Birdlife international is working with the Ministry of Livestock/Fisheries, ZEMA, ZARI (agricultural
institute) and CABI (agriculture and bioscience), to reduce invasive Kariba weed hoping to improve the fish catch,
restore habitats, increase water quality and protect biodiversity. Linking up with them would be a good start.
23 CAPEX will likely include development of plan, feasibility studies, establishment of institutions; Initial investments in
restoration interventions and implementation of plan; Initial investment in alternative livelihoods (education/ training,
development of local markets; pilots; seed investments). OPEX will likely include Monitoring of ecological/ hydrological
status, climate impacts, trends; Maintenance of infrastructure; management cost of resource management authority.
24
https://www.greenclimate.fund/countries/zambia

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 The rationale for investment in preserving Lukanga’s ecosystem services
The Lukanga swamp provides a wide range of ecosystem services which have significant contribution to human
well-being. The beneficiaries of these services have an interest in the conservation of Lukanga Swamp and may
be willing and able to contribute to this. Particularly downstream of Lukanga, there are some water users with a
considerable (business) interest in Lukanga’s function as natural retention area. Key ecosystem services include
drinking water provision to downstream cities including the capital Lukanga; energy security by supplying the
downstream ZESCO Kafue Lower Gorge hydropower station; and food security/ agricultural production e.g. large
agricultural schemes depending on irrigation like ZAMSugar.

Error! Reference source not found. provides an idea of the scale of the benefits derived from Lukanga’s water
regulation function, based on the hypothetical situation in which 10% of Lukanga’s storage capacity would be
lost.

Table 3-1 Economic impact of a 10% loss in storage capacity of Lukanga swamp to downstream beneficiaries.

BENEFICIARY RISK of a 10% lost of Lukanga Damage per year

LWSC (Lusaka water company) 50% loss of revenue for three months $1,166,317
Zambia Sugar 20% crop loss in a dry year $2,920,291
ZESCO Lost 18% of revenue in a dry year $37,596,154
Potential Total Loss $41,682,762

Additional services to downstream users include regulation of sediment loads: this particularly affects the
longevity/ operational efficiency of the hydropower dam. The swamps’ sponge function contributes to mitigating
downstream flood and drought risk. Its water purification function contributes to the overall water quality in the
Kafue basin and reduces purification costs in drinking water production.

Aside from these clear economic benefits of Lukanga’s ecosystem services to downstream users, the area also
provides a multitude of services to the local population. The area provides natural resources that are essential to
a large number of livelihoods, such as fish, wood and reeds. The ecosystem rendered by forested areas in the
Lukanga basin are estimated at $220/ha/year in the Lukanga basin: among other services they provide a range
of products that can be harvested from the forest, e.g. wood, nuts, mushrooms, honey/beekeeping. The Lukanga
swamp and surrounding forested areas also capture and store CO 2, contributing to (inter)national climate goals.
The area further provides key habitats for wildlife, fish and birds, including several globally threatened species.

In short, potential contributions may come from downstream water users, local public authorities, e.g. Water
resources management authority (WARMA), Ministry of Lands, Natural Resources and Environmental
protection, Ministry of Livestock/ Fisheries and Zambia Environmental Management Agency (ZEMA). Grants
may be given by impact investors or philanthropic entities, particularly those focusing on natural capital, water
security, climate adaptation/mitigation, ecosystem restoration or sustainable development. Carbon offset may
be used to create an additional income stream. The local financial sector may play a role in e.g. investment in
new sustainable business models.

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 6. Capacity building
1. Install awareness and capacity building/ training programs in local communities in
Lukanga on preservation of the ecosystem, to increase public support for interventions
and alternative livelihood models. To be developed
2. Include local communities in monitoring and maintenance activities. To be developed
3. Embed conservation/ ecology and sustainable land use in educational programmes for
new generations. To be developed

Global example

An example of how NbS has helped other countries in protecting downstream flows and water supply is
from New York State in the USA25. The City of New York is dependent on its upland catchment in the
Catskill Mountains. The introduction of the Safe Drinking Water Act meant that that all major surface-
water systems filter their water or provide protection to the natural state of the watershed producing it.
With prohibitive costs for water treatment systems, the City of New York launched a project to protect its
drinking water by protecting the ecosystem services of its catchment26.

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25
https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/articles/ecosystem-services-in-the-new-york-city-watershed-1969-12-31-
2/
26
Sagoff (2002).

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3.3 Roadmap – Kenya’s coastal mangroves
Mangroves and reefs in the Kenyan coastal zone provide many ecosystem services. In each
of the five coastal counties, coastal ecosystems play a vital role for the people and the economy
.
1. Technology and system knowledge
1. Further (quantitative) analysis of driving mechanisms both natural (To be
developed) and anthropogenic (Already underway) that influence Kenyan
mangrove extent and coastal geomorphological change.27 This should give insight
in causal relationships and provide understanding of causes and effects, which is
important to determine a sustainable way forward.
2. Perform detailed climate impact studies focusing on climate change effects such
as changes in sea level, rainfall, storm intensity and the impact on coastal
ecosystems, people and economy for different shared socioeconomic pathways
(SSPs). Already underway28
3. Following up on (1) and (2), identify current and future problems in the Kenyan
coastal zones. NbS addresses multiple issues at once in opposition to traditional
mono-function solutions. Already underway.
4. Site selection for NbS based on a vulnerability analysis, a risk assessment and
mangrove presence. To be developed.
5. Initiation of detailed design process of mangrove based NbS. The deliverable
includes a tender package for implementation. To be developed.
6. Towards implementation we recommend considering adopting Ecological
Mangrove Restoration principles and focusing on abiotic factors to enhance
natural restoration aside/instead of planting29. To be developed.

2. Multi-stakeholder approach
1. The Kenyan national mangrove management plan grouped 22 stakeholders in
beneficiaries, implementers, partners and policy makers. The Kenya Forest Service
and Kenya Wildlife Service are responsible for management of mangroves in Kenya. A
new committee called the National Mangrove Management Committee (NMMC) acts
as advisory board on issues regarding mangrove management. NMMC holds members
from multiple backgrounds (GoK, 2017). Similarly, an Implementation Committee is set-
up as part of the Mombasa Kilindini Participatory Forest Management Plan (KFS,
2015). Already underway.
2. An integrated approach for climate resilience and adaptation will require new coalition
forming between sectoral organizations (e.g. Ministry of Transport, Infrastructure,
Housing, Urban Development and Public Works, Ministry of Environment and Forestry),
KFS, KWS and private partners. To be developed.

3. Management, monitoring and maintenance

1. Provide sufficient management resources and personnel to KFS and KWS to effectively
manage mangroves. Already underway.

——————————————
27
Studies (e.g. National Mangrove Ecosystem Management plan) conclude that the majority of observed mangrove
loss can be linked to anthropogenic factors (mainly cutting). The influence of positive and negative feedbacks
between mangroves, sediment and hydrodynamics are unaddressed, but will become of great importance in light of
climate change.
28
Sagero (2019) studied climate impact Kenya focussing on climate change related temperature and rainfall
variability. Mwangi and Mutua (2015) modelled Kenya’s vulnerability to climate change and showed high vulnerability
for the majority of the Kenyan coastal counties. Currently, the effect of climate change impact on coastal mangroves,
coastal communities and coastal economy is not quantitatively assessed.
29
Lewis et al 2005, Winterwerp et al., 2020

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 2. Establish a national mangrove and shoreline monitoring protocol that is executed on
set intervals (e.g. national yearly monitoring campaigns and local more frequent
monitoring of the development of critical areas). To be developed.
3. Develop formal zoning plans for mangroves areas to facilitate sustainable use and
protect critical function for shoreline stabilization, flooding and biodiversity. The
National mangroves plan distinguished four forest management zones. Already
underway.

4. Institutional embedding
1. The Forest Policy supported by act such as the Conservation and Management act
2016, Fisheries Act 2012 and Land Act 2012 provide the legal framework for
management of mangroves. Steps for further institutional embedding are underway
with plans to update the Environmental Management and Coordination (Wetlands,
River Banks, Lake Shores and Sea Shore Management) Regulation from 2009 with an
Amendment to align this policy to the Constitution of Kenya, 2010, Environmental
Management and Coordination Act, Cap 387 and the National Wetlands Conservation
and Management Policy, 2015 (NEMA, 2017). Already underway.

5. Business case
1. Make better estimates of ecosystem services and benefits and maintenance costs.
Here after, seek co-investment or other financing arrangements, such as the PlanVivo
Carbon Certificates from the Mikoko Pamoja project. Already underway.
2. Traditionally mangrove management is approached from a nature conservation
perspective while mangroves deliver many benefits. Integration of ecosystems in shore
line protection and flood protection frameworks is a sustainable way forward
considering climate change. To be developed.

6. Capacity building
1. Training of scouts, activities to enhance community awareness (e.g. support to
community based integra ted aquaculture) are underway (GoK, 2017). Already
underway.
2. Involve younger generations through education programs. Re-orientation of school
curricula to include climate change adaptation and the role of coastal ecosystems listed
as short-term action in the national adaptation plan. Already underway.
3. Increase capacity and familiarity with NbS within governmental organizations that are
not yet connected. To be developed,

Global examples
People become more and more aware of the valuable ecosystem services that are provided by
mangroves. We here describe in brief a few global examples of mangroves for disaster risk reduction. At
Kaback (Guinea) fringing mangroves have been converted to rice fields that were protected by levees in
the past. Over the last decades the area has experienced multiple levee breaks that are resulting in
flooding and salt intrusion of the reclaimed lands. Currently, different partners among others the World
Bank are investigating mangrove inclusive designs for this area. The ADB had an extensive program on
flood risk management in the Philippines. Specific attention was paid to large-scale river basin planning,
management of the natural system and guidelines and embedding of NbS. In Northern Java (Indonesia)
communities are suffering from coastal erosion. Research showed that the root causes are mangrove
removal for aquaculture, construction of hard coastal infrastructure and groundwater extraction. A Nature-
based Solution is implemented that is integrating mangrove and river restoration, small-scale engineering
and sustainable land-use30.

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30
https://www.ecoshape.org/en/pilots/building-with-nature-indonesia/

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 Mangrove based NbS opportunities in Kenyan coastal counties
In Lamu mangroves are still rather pristine and are likely to play a vital role in fixating sediments.
Removal of mangroves may result in more suspended sediment that may clock navigation channels
and threaten survival of coral reefs. Reef losses may cascade into larger-scale ecosystem collapse
and other unwarranted effects. Development plans in this area, such as large-scale port development,
should integrate mangroves and local livelihoods.

Tana river is one of the two permanent rivers to the coast. Along the river several human settlements
are present in the floodplains. To ensure water availability and replenishment of groundwater,
encroachment of floodplains should be restricted. Downstream coastline stability is largely dependent
on the sediment influx of the Tana river and salt intrusion is limited by fresh water run-off. Natural River
Management can help to safeguard these functions, as coastal erosion and salt intrusion can severely
impact livelihoods of people in this area.

In Kilifi ribbon settlements are present along the coast and fishponds are situated directly behind
mangroves near Ngomeni. To increase climate resilience, space should be available for mangroves to
migrate landward. Mixed mangrove aquaculture can constitute a viable alternative in this area,
reverting ponds partly back to mangroves and still providing similar household incomes but resulting
in a far better outlook for mangrove conservation and climate adaptation in the area.

In Mombasa mangroves are severely threatened. However, upstream mangroves still present are
likely to act a buffer against pluvial and fluvial flooding. Integration of mangroves in the storm water
drainage network and in city planning may be the way forward to avoid expensive hard measures to
avoid water logging and flooding in Mombasa. In addition, sanitation and waste management should
become a high priority to maintain the tourist-attractive beaches and reefs.

In Kwale mangroves, sheltered by islands and reefs, stabilize the coastline and act as a buffer to
incoming storms. A system approach for Kwale would not only focus on mangroves, but also include
the upstream lakes for provisioning of drinking water. Continuation of the ongoing carbon projects can
help to finance climate adaptation efforts.

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3.4 Summary roadmap of three cases

Although there is quite some diversity in the NbS topics covered in the three cases and they
present different levels of maturity, clear conclusions can be drawn from the three cases. Table
3-2 provides an assessment of the status of each enabler for each case, based on the available
information. Thereby, the table highlights the relative maturity of the NbS measures but also
indicates where targeted interventions could be most useful. Two of the three cases show good
progress on the technological or system enabler, and two of three have good levels of
institutional embedding already. Both are promising steps in the right direction. Perhaps the
most interesting aspect is that in all three countries there has been attention to the business
case, either through site specific feasibility studies (such as in Rwanda) or individual pilot
projects (such as the Mikoko Pamoja project) where financing mechanisms are being
developed. Clearly, in two of the cases further work is needed for the enablers on multi-
stakeholder approach and especially the management, monitoring and maintenance of the
actual NbS measures. This latter factor may be as the cases have not reached full maturity yet.
Finally, we identify capacity building as the weakest aspect of the six enablers. Based on the
available information it appears there is a reliance on external support for the feasibility studies
and implementation. It indicates that perhaps simpler NbS technical solutions are also needed,
being implementable by national agencies and NGOs with limited external input.

Table 3-2. Status of the enablers for each case (red = not developed or no data, orange = some attention but
not covered fully, green = optimized and finalized or in progress).

Technology Multi Management, Institutional Business Capacity

and system stakeholder monitoring embedding case Building
knowledge approach and
maintenance

Kigali’s
urban
wetlands
Kenya’s
coastal
mangroves

Zambia’s
Lukanga
swamp

Recommendations for WWF complementary activities in the three cases:

1. In consultation with National WWF offices, review the opportunities identified to agree on
‘entry-points’ for WWF complementary activities. Entry-points may be the weakest
enablers where WWF’s experience and skills could have the most effect or those enablers
where progress is already good, and WWF’s experience and skills could be the tipping
point to completion.
2. Specific to all cases, WWF’s intervention in the business case would be a key
recommendation. WWF could act as a match-maker between investors and implementers,
providing an independent ‘stamp of approval’ to business-cases at the national and
international level.
3. In addition to point 2, for Kigali’s wetlands, WWF may specifically look to complement the
ongoing activities through the provision of capacity building and biodiversity inclusion.
Perhaps specifically on the topic of management, monitoring and maintenance, as well as

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 bringing more attention to the biodiversity and ecotourism aspects, as well as the need for
greater upland revegetation with native species.
4. In addition to point 2, for Kenya’s coastal mangroves, WWF may specifically look to
complement the ongoing activities by focusing on the technology and system knowledge
and multi-stakeholder approach enablers as these seem crucial stepping stones to building
a national NbS approach for the Mangroves, identifying priority locations for new projects
(leveraging the existing pilot projects)
5. In addition to point 2, for Kenya’s coastal mangroves, WWF may specifically look to
complement the ongoing activities by focusing on the multi-stakeholder approach and
institutional embedding, in the case of Lukanga these seem to be the major hinderance to
progress.

Recommendations for Africa-wide upscaling include:

1. To facilitate exchange of knowledge, experiences and best practices an African wide NbS
platform for governments, and NGO’s can be installed supported by IFI’s.
2. WWF and partners could organize an NbS conference in the coming years for African
governments, NGOs and institutions to share experiences and learn about NbS.
3. Publishing an Africa specific guidance report demonstrating the application of the six
enablers approach will lead to wider knowledge of the applicability of the approach in the
African context.

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4 References

Aboudha, P. A. W. (1993). Geomorphology of the Kenyan coast: Not as a Result of Sea-Level

Change alone.

Abuodha, J. O. Z. (2004). Geomorphological evolution of the southern coastal zone of

Kenya. Journal of African Earth Sciences, 39(3-5), 517-525.

Deltares (2020): Storm Water and Wetland Management Model for the delineated flood prone
areas in Kigali City - Flood model and hazard assessment report. RUDPII

Gakuba (2012) - Study for Establishing Urban Wetland Recreation and Ecotourism Park in
Nyandungu Valley, Kigali City (Rwanda)

Government of Kenya. (2017). National Mangrove Ecosystem Management Plan. Kenya

Forest Service, Nairobi, Kenya.

Government of Rwanda (2020): City of Kigali Master Plan 2050.

IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II
and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
([Core Writing Team; R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)] (Ed.)). IPCC

Kairu, K. K. (1997). Vulnerability of the Kenyan shoreline to coastal instability. Sustainable

Coastal Development through Integrated Planning and Management Focused on Mitigating the
Impacts ofCoastline Instability. White sands Hotel, Mombasa, 23rdа25thJune.

Katuva, J., Hope, R., Foster, T., Koehler, J., & Thomson, P. (2020). Groundwater and Welfare:
A conceptual framework applied to Coastal Kenya. Groundwater for Sustainable
Development, 10, 100314.

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. (2019). – 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census,
vol 1 Distribution of Population by Administrative Units.

KFS (2015). Mombasa Mangrove Forest Participatory Management Plan 2015-2019. Kenya
Forest Service, Nairobi, Kenya.

Kirui, K. B., Kairo, J. G., Bosire, J., Viergever, K. M., Rudra, S., Huxham, M., & Briers, R. A.
(2013). Mapping of mangrove forest land cover change along the Kenya coastline using
Landsat imagery. Ocean & Coastal Management, 83, 19-24.

Macfarlane, D. (2019) - Developing Wetlands Investments as part of World Bank Strategic

Engagements in Cities.

Macfarlane, D., Dunsmore, S. and McNamara, S. (2020) - Nyabugogo and Gikondo wetlands
– Technical support to inform detailed wetland rehabilitation planning.

Mcleod, E., Chmura, G. L., Bouillon, S., Salm, R., Björk, M., Duarte, C. M., ... & Silliman, B. R.
(2011). A blueprint for blue carbon: toward an improved understanding of the role of vegetated

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 coastal habitats in sequestering CO2. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 9(10), 552-
560.

Ministry of Environment (2018) - Assessment of Current Storm Water Management and Flood
in the City of Kigali Areas

Mwakumanya, M. A., & Bdo, O. (2007). Beach morphological dynamics: a case study of Nyali
and Bamburi beaches in Mombasa, Kenya. Journal of Coastal Research, 23(2 (232)), 374-379.

Mwangi, K. K., & Mutua, F. (2015). Modeling Kenya’s vulnerability to climate change–A
multifactor approach. International Journal of Science and Research, 6, 12-19.

NEMA (2017). Webpage National Environment Management Authority, Draft Wetlands

Regulations 2017 Amended.
https://www.nema.go.ke/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=169&Itemid=311
Page visited March 2020.

Nemus (2018) - Detailed Sub-Catchment Management Plans for Gikondo and Nyabugogo
Wetland Systems – Plan Report Volume 1

Plan Vivo (2020). Plan Vivo Project Design Document Mikoko Pamoja Mangrove conservation
for community benefit.

Sagero, P. O. (2019). Assessment of past and future climate change and projected by regional
climate models and likely impacts over Kenya.(Doctoral dissertation, School of Pure and
Applied Science, Kenyatta University).

Sagoff, M (2002): On the value of natural ecosystems: The Catskills parable. Politics and the
Life Sciences 21(1):19-25

USAID. (2018). Climate Risk Profile Kenya.

Winterwerp, J. C., Albers, T., Anthony, E. J., Friess, D. A., Mancheño, A. G., Moseley, K., ... &
Van Wesenbeeck, B. K. (2020). Managing erosion of mangrove-mud coasts with permeable
dams–lessons learned. Ecological Engineering, 158, 106078.

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A Factsheet – Kigali’s urban wetlands

Country: Rwanda
Geography: Urban/Peri-urban (inland and mountainous)
About Kigali’s urban wetlands:
Approximately 1800km2 of Rwanda is
covered by wetlands, predominantly valley
bottom papyrus swamps, either still in its
natural state or reclaimed for agriculture.
The wetlands provide important services by
retaining and purifying water during
intensive rains, in groundwater recharge,
nutrient buffering and fisheries. The flat
nutrient rich floodplain wetlands are ideal for
agriculture, but its regular flooding in the © Douglas MacFarlane
rainy season makes it unsuitable for
residential development. In Kigali however, these wetlands are used for informal agriculture
and light industrial areas, and experience frequent flooding due to the high runoff from the
surrounding urbanized hills. Water from high intensity rainstorms runoff the steep urban
catchments causing flooding in the roads running through the urban wetlands. These floods
cause disruption in traffic, preventing all travel between hillside communities. Urbanized land
in Kigali has tripled in 25 years, with more growth and densification expected, flooding problems
are expected to intensity. To compound this, it is expected that by 2050, rainfall intensity shall
increase by between 10 and 22 % due to climate change.

A.1 Drivers at the national level

Driven by population growth and Rwanda’s ambition to become a middle-income country, the
valley bottom wetlands have been seen as an important resource for socio-economic
development. This has included the drafting of an Irrigation Master Plan that identified valley
bottom areas as suitable for sugar plantations, the development of the peat-fired Gisagara
power station, as well as the recognition that the wetlands perform important functions for flood
retention and tourism.

A.2 Pressures in Kigali’s urban wetlands

Valley bottom agricultural activities are either large intensive plantations of sugar or rice, or
more commonly in Kigali, informal small-scale agriculture/aquaculture. These small-scale plots
are typically formed by digging small channels in the wetlands to prevent water logging.
Excavating square ponds for fish farming is also common, with rabbit hutches positioned to
provide a self-feeding mechanism for the fish. In Kigali, the valley bottoms can also be
important transportation routes and in some cases include industrial/commercial assets. A
notable example if the main transportation node for the main Kigali – Uganda Road, Kigali –
Goma Road and Kigali – Bukavu Road, where the main bus station is positioned at the
downstream end of the Nyabugogo wetland.

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A.3 State
Valley bottom wetlands surround the city of Kigali and range from the natural papyrus swamps
found at the confluence of the Nyabugogo and Nyabarongo Rivers and Masaka further
downstream, to the sugar plantations along the Nyabarongo, and the heavily modified wetlands
around Kigali itself. The urban wetlands of Kigali are in a degraded state after years of use as
informal agricultural areas and light industrial areas. Most of the wetlands around Kigali Most
of the light industry in the wetlands is either derelict/abandoned or has been evicted to less
flood prone locations. A study recently 31 identified several pollution hotspots associated with
these former facilities where the soil has become contaminated from the former industrial use.
Furthermore, the drainage of these wetlands has been heavily modified to enable development
for agriculture, light industry and transport (road culverts). The light industrial use focus on
facilities for processing agricultural products, cloth processing, logistics and light
manufacturing.

Figure 4-1. Map of the wetlands around Kigali.

A.4 Impacts
The main impacts are:
1. Wetlands no longer have an effect ‘sponge’ effect to retain stormwater runoff, therefore the
roads crossing the wetlands become overtopped disrupting traffic and threatening human
life.
2. Wetlands have become polluted due to light industrial use, which is both a threat to
groundwater resources for drinking water but also for contamination of agricultural crops
grown in the wetlands.
3. Loss of natural wetland habitat and the associated biodiversity.

A.5 Response
As a result the Government of Rwanda, with the support of the World Bank and other donors,
are exploring the options to rehabilitate the urban wetlands with the intention to enhance the
flood buffering capacity, improve water quality and enhance urban living through the provision
of green recreational space.

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31
Nemus (2018) - Detailed Sub-Catchment Management Plans for Gikondo and Nyabugogo Wetland Systems

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 To this end several studies have been commissioned:
• Rwanda Environmental Management Agency (REMA) – Restoration plan for Gikondo,
Rwintare-Rugenge, Kibumba and Lower Nyabugogo wetlands 32
• Rwanda Water Resources Board (RWB) / City of Kigali / REMA – Stormwater and
wetland flood modelling2
• REMA – Urban Wetland Recreation and Ecotourism Park in Nyandungu Valley
• RWB – Masaka flood modelling
• RWB – Nyabugogo Catchment Management Plan

Whilst in parallel there has been work to create a strong institutional environment with extensive
activities and prior learning. As a result of these studies the Government of Rwanda took the
decision to relocate an industrial area away from the flood prone Gikondo wetland to a safer
location. This was carried out 2019 and 2020 (Figure 4-2).

2018
2020

Figure 4-2. Clearance of light industrial area from the Gikondo wetland.

Now, with the support of the World Bank’s RUDPII project, several wetland rehabilitation
scenarios are being tested in 2021 (Figure 4-3). Scenarios assess how wetlands can slow
stormwater drainage reducing downstream flooding. Subsequently the selected wetland plan
shall be implemented for four wetlands (Gikondo, Rwintare-Rugenge, Kibumba and Lower
Nyabugogo wetlands).

S1 S2

© Douglas MacFarlane

Figure 4-3. Possible scenarios for the restoration of the Gikondo wetland.

——————————————
32
under the World Bank’s Rwanda Urban Development Project (RUDPII)

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 Therefore the ‘response’ within the DPSIR framework is already well developed and focuses
on the rehabilitation of these wetlands with the intent to:
1. Restore the wetlands’ ‘sponge’ effect to retain stormwater runoff and prevent flooding.
2. Improve wetland buffering to improve water quality
3. Restore wetland habitat as green urban space for recreation.

REMA has also identified the Rwampara wetland within the city for restoration but is yet to
secure funds for design and restoration work. Given the planned eastward expansion and
densification of the urban area of Kigali33, there is potentially a need to expand restoration work
to other wetlands.

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33
City of Kigali (2020): Kigali Master Plan

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B Factsheet – Zamiba’s Lukunga swamp

Country: Zambia
Geography: inland
About the Lukanga Swamp: The Lukanga swamp is situated in the hearth of Zambia, about
100 km north of capital Lusaka. The core of the wetland is 3300 km2 in size in the dry season,
growing to 6000-8000 km2 in the wet season. The wetland is a significant contributor to the
Kafue river basin: about 1/3 of water downstream of Lukanga comes from the swamp. The
area also acts as natural retention basin for the Kafue river, storing excess water that overflows
from Kafue during wet years, and slowly releasing it in later years. The water stored in Lukanga
ranges between 3000 and 10.000 million cubic meter (MCM); the maximum storage capacity
in upstream Thezhi-Tezhi and Kafue Gorge Upper dams amounts to 6700 MCM. As such, the
Lukanga swamp plays an important role in water regulation for downstream water users, such
as urban drinking water, agriculture and energy provision through the hydropower dam. The
wetland also traps sediment that would otherwise affect the capacity of the hydropower dam,
and filters water, thereby improving water quality. The Lukanga swamp is a designated
RAMSAR wetland and the area is very attractive for wildlife, fish and birds, hosting various
globally threatened species. The wetland contributes 10% of the national fish supply and fishing
is a key livelihood in the area. Other key livelihoods in the area include basketry (using reed
material from the swamp), wood collection for charcoal production, collection of high-value
natural products (e.g. honey, nuts), hunting wildlife and agriculture (livestock and cultivation).
The swamp also plays a key role in cultural ceremonies for resident ethnic groups.

B.1 Drivers at the national level

Zambia has 8 major wetlands with RAMSAR status. Climate change leads to increasing
occurrence of droughts and floods and the swamps have an important function in buffering
these fluctuations and associated risks for humans. Throughout the country, wetlands are
threatened by increasing population and economic development, which is driving land use
change in the form of human settlement, mining, construction of hydropower dams, conversion
to agriculture and overexploitation of natural resources, such as fish and game. Increasing
abundance of invasive species further threatens the ecological integrity of the swamps.

B.2 Pressures in the Lukanga Swamp

The growing population and economic development in the Lukanga Swamp is spurring
unsustainable land and resource use in the swamp. Land tenure in the area is based on a
traditional system: land acquisition for indigenous population is through inheritance, and four
local chiefs have the mandate to sell land to non-indigenous persons. At present a
management plan of the area is lacking, there is no special protection status and there are no
incentives for sustainable land management in the current land tenure system.

Wood collection for charcoal production and slash and burn practices for clearing ground for
agriculture lead to rapid deforestation within and along the edges of the swamp. Only the
western section of the swamp remains relatively untouched. Intensive use of fertilizers for
agriculture, overgrazing, unsustainable fishing practices (e.g. wrong gear, poison), excessive
poaching and the invasive Kariba weed (presently covering over 50% of the swamp) further
affect water quality and biodiversity. Channeling and construction of roads and settlements (the
population is expected to increase from 865,000 to 1,201,000 million by 2025) impair the
hydrological integrity of the swamp. During dry years, large sections of the swamp dry out,
reducing the potential for fish migration and breeding.

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 In the future, changing flow regimes in the upstream Kafue river due to climate change, dams
or changing water use patterns (particularly due to large irrigation schemes) may reduce the
overflow from Kafue to Lukanga in wet years and return flow during dry years. This would
reduce the role of the Lukanga Swamps in the water balance of the larger Kafue Basin and
may pose negative effects on the overall water availability in the Kafue river.

B.3 State
Over extraction of groundwater, reduced hydrological connectivity and increased erosion and
resulting siltation have led to lower water tables in the center of the swamp. Water quality is
also declining. A high turbidity due to erosion caused by deforestation, eutrophication, the
advance of the exotic Kariba weed, lower oxygen and light levels in the water combined with
overfishing have led to declining fish and wildlife populations.

B.4 Impacts
Unsustainable resource use (poaching, overfishing, deforestation, over extraction of water and
conversion of land to agriculture and settlement) impairs the wide variety of livelihoods
traditionally practiced in the area. With climate change leading to droughts and deforestation
and with increasing pressure on biodiversity and ecosystems in the area, these livelihoods may
be further at risk. Already in the past decades, fish yields have significantly declined.

Downstream of the Lukanga Swamps, economic activities such as the hydropower dam
(ZESCO, LWSC)) and agricultural areas (e.g. Zambia Sugar) partly depend on the Lukanga
swamp for a steady water flow of sufficient quality. If these services further decline, this can
have significant impact on energy and water security in the region.

B.5 Response
Protection of the area constitutes an attractive NbS-based strategy to optimize downstream
water and energy security, addressing one of three major threats to the Lukanga Swamps’ role
as natural retention area in the larger Kafue basin: unsustainable land management in the area.
A sustainable management plan would further ensure that local communities can continue to
depend on the swamps’ ecosystem services for their livelihoods and preserve its biodiversity
value.

The Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources and Environmental Protection is currently
developing a community-based resource management and conservation plan for the Lukanga
Swamp (ZMERIP), supported by TNC and WWF. The plan includes the establishment of a
water resource protection area with corresponding institutional arrangements. Furthermore, the
issue of the invasive Kariba weed is being addressed in a project of Birdlife international (since
2017) with the Ministry of Livestock/ Fisheries and ZEMA (environmental agency), ZARI
(agricultural institute) and CABI (agriculture and bioscience), hoping to improve the fish catch,
restore habitats, increase water quality and protect biodiversity

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C Factsheet – Kenya’s coastal mangroves

Country: Kenya
Geography: Coastal
About Kenyas’ mangrove forests: The Kenyan coast consist of 575 kilometers of coastline
running from Kiunga (North, bordering Somalia) to Vanga (South, bordering Tanzania). The
coastline crosses five counties, Lamu, Tana River, Kigili, Mombasa and Kwale, that all inhabit
mangroves. Most mangroves are situated in Lamu and Kwale, where they are protected from
wave energy by barrier islands and coral reefs. Most mangroves in Kenya are situated in
estuaries and lagoons, while only a small amount faces the Indian Ocean directly, so-called
“fringing mangroves”. The last decades mangroves show a declining trend, due to
overexploitation for wood products (main driver), salt extraction, extensive siltation and (oil)
pollution. These developments go hand-in-hand with rapid population growth and urbanization.
At the same time, impacts of natural hazards and the steadily rising sea level due to climate
change put more pressure on the remaining mangroves and the Kenyan coastal counties that
benefit from these ecosystems. Here, we present opportunities for all five coastal counties to
include mangroves in climate adaption, economic development and land-use plans and
conserve them for reducing risks on flooding and erosion.

C.1 Drivers at the national level

The Kenyan population is growing, and especially the urban population is showing an upward
trend for decades, in parallel with a declining percentage of rural citizens. For example, the
population living in the coastal city Mombasa, the second largest city of the country, almost
doubled in the last decade to over 1.2 million people (Kenyan Statistical Service, 2019). Overall,
Kenya is still considered as under-urbanized and future urbanization come with challenges. It
is expected that in 2050 about half of the population will be living in cities (World Bank, 2016).
In addition to (urban) population growth, climate change is recognized as an important driver.
Climate change will induce an increase of the average surface temperature (1.2-2.2 degrees
Celsius in 2050) and a rise in sea-level (16-42 cm) (USAID, 2018). Future average precipitation
projections for Kenya are still uncertain, but an increase seems most likely (IPCC, 2014). The
frequency and magnitude of periods of extreme rainfall will increase and periods of extreme
drought will likely become more intense.

C.2 Pressures in coastal ecosystems

The increasing Kenyan population demands more of the existing infrastructure and basic
services, such as water, sanitation and a clean environment. In addition, the growing population
results in an increased demand for housing, which enhances land-use conflicts. Kenyan
mangroves are under threat by anthropogenic pressures such as over-exploitation for wood
products (e.g. fuel wood), conversion of mangroves areas for economic benefit (salt extraction,
aquaculture), pollution, infrastructure (damming of rivers, port development), human
settlements, lack of awareness and weak governance (GoK, 2017). Encroachment and infilling
of mangrove areas from the landside is observed, whereas sea level rise will reduce available
space for mangroves at the seaward side.

C.3 State
The coastal zone of Kenya contains five coastal counties that have different coastal settings,
but all house mangroves. The coastal habitants are culturally diverse and unevenly spread
over the coastal zone. The counties Mombasa and Kilifi are the most densely populated (Table
4-1). Job opportunities in these cities attracted many people. Unplanned city growth and

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 unauthorized development reflects the ineffective planning system in these areas (World Bank,
2016). In the cities economic turnover is created in (eco)-tourism, shipping and running small-
scale businesses. In the rural areas more traditional activities take place, such as rice farming,
fishery and production of wood products (mangrove pole harvesting).

Table 4-1 Population density, poverty rate and mangrove extent for Kenyan coastal counties (adapted from
GoK (2017))

Kwale Mombasa Kilifi Tana Lamu Total

river
Population density (pop/km2) 79 4,294 88 6 16 -
Poverty rate (%) 74.9 37.6 71.4 76.9 32.7 -
Mangrove extent (ha) 8,354 3,771 8,536 3,260 37,350 61,271

The southern Kenyan coast contains of fringing reefs that protect mangroves from energetic
waves, but also series of white beaches that attract many tourists. However, due to the limited
sediment supply towards the south coast, the narrow coastal shelf beaches, such as the Diani
beach, are suffering from structural erosion that is further enhanced by the construction of sea
walls (Kairu, 1997; Mwakumanya, 2007). Further north the coastline converts to a deltaic coast
due to influence of the Sabaki and the Tana River. Lamu features the ancient Tana delta area,
that consists of a series of low-lying islands, mangroves and fringing reefs (Aboudha, 1993;
Aboudha, 2004). In addition, plans to develop a large sea port (Lamu port) as part of the
LAPSSET corridor program are progressing and is threatening mangrove forests in the area.
Mangroves forest in Kenya declined in size with about 20% between 1985 and 2009 (GoK,
2017). Around the city Mombasa over 70% of the mangroves have been lost. Human induced
threats are identified as the major cause for mangroves loss and degradation. Mangrove cutting
for construction material, wood products or fuel wood is taking place in all five coastal counties.
In addition, natural hazards, such as the El Niño weather phenomenon, cause heavy rainfall
and result in high river discharges with a high sediment load that ultimately causes mangrove
forests to siltate.

C.4 Impact
The current state of the coastal zone already shows the impact of human activities and natural
hazards. Climate change will further impact the coastal zone. Recurring droughts and floods
result in crop and livestock losses, for example the drought between 2008 and 2011 caused
$12.1 billion in losses and damages (USAID, 2018). Especially people that are dependent on
shallow groundwater sources suffer severely from these events (Katuva et al., 2020). Droughts
impact also power supply, because it reduces hydropower production. Flooding will affect
people and result in economic damages. For Mombasa alone estimation indicate that 4.8 billion
USD of assets will be exposed to coastal flooding (USAID, 2018).

Kenyan coastal ecosystems are likely to degrade further. This will not only result in a loss of
bio-diversity, but can have a large effect on the Kenyan economy. Mangroves and reefs are
interlinked systems that not only serve as tourist attraction, but act as a protection buffer
between the sea and the Kenyan coastal zone. Loss or deterioration of coral reefs jeopardizes
sand supply to tourist beaches and increases wave heights at the beach thereby increasing
erosion and risk on flooding. Increasing wave heights, may also result in loss of mangrove
forests. Vice versa, a reduction in mangrove extent will result in unfiltered run off from the land
towards the reef. Increasing suspended sediment concentrations may further stress coral reefs
that are already stressed by increasing water temperatures and fishing practices. This
exemplifies the importance of conservation of these seascapes consisting of coral reefs, sea
grass beds and mangrove forests. Coastal ecosystems are to a certain extent able to grow with

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 sea-level rise. However, in case the rate of sea-level rise is too large, the only option for
mangroves forests is to retreat landward. If no space is available, e.g. due to human settlement
just behind the mangroves, intertidal areas will get lost between the rising sea and the fixed
landward margin. Loss of Kenyan coral reefs and mangroves can be devastating for the long-
term geomorphological development of the Kenyan coast, resulting in severe land-loss and
leaving the coastal zone fully exposed to the forces of the sea.

C.5 Response
At national level, the importance of conserving coastal ecosystems is acknowledged in multiple
visions and action plans (Forest Policy, 2014; Forest conservation and Management act
(2016); Kenya Forest Service Strategic plan, 2014). Steps for further institutional embedding
are underway with plans to update the Environmental Management and Coordination
(Wetlands, River Banks, Lake Shores and Sea Shore Management) Regulations from 2009
with an Amendment (NEMA, 2017). In addition, a national mangrove conservation mangrove
plan exists (GoK, 2017), and a specific plan is set-up to manage the severely threated
mangroves in Mombasa (KFS, 2015). In the meanwhile, mangrove blue economy projects are
taking place in southern Kenya, such as the Vanga and Mikoko Pamoja project (below).

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 Case community involvement in Mikoko Pamoja mangrove project
The Mikoko Pamoja project is the first carbon-offset community led conservation and restoration
project aiming to stop deforestation, prevent further degradation and restore mangrove by active
planting. Loss and degradation of mangroves and overall ecosystem health in Gazi Bay has been
studied extensively over the past years (Plan Vivo, 2020). Mangrove extent declined with a rate of 0.7
% in the period between 1985 and 2011 (Kirui et al., 2013b). Locals living adjacent to the mangroves
depend on the mangroves as building material and as energy source, as many households rely on
open fires. The loss of mangroves negatively impacts the community by loss of livelihood and declining
fish stocks. The project included stakeholder analysis exercises that led to identification of causes of
observed loss and degradation of mangroves in Kwale county. The main identified drivers are
population pressure, poverty and inequality and poor governance. Involving local communities is
critical for success due to this set of anthropogenic drivers. A government-registered community
organization the Mikoko Pamoja Community Organization (MPCO) was setup and is currently
responsible for implementation of project work plans. A steering group with members from KMFRI,
KFS, WWF, Edinburgh Napier University, Bangor University and the Earthwatch Institute provide
technical advice, training and support. The Association for Coastal Ecosystem Services (ACES)
oversees transfer of funds and reports to the overarching Plan Vivo Foundation.

Money generated by the sale of carbon credits, are being spent for community benefits, e.g. purchase
of new schoolbooks. The carbon storage is estimated on 1.38tC/ha /year (Mcloed et al., 2011), other
ecosystem services such as coastal protection and enhanced biodiversity are not quantified but are
emphasized in communication.

The Mikoko Pamoja mangrove project is an example of a project with much participation from the local
community, multi-stakeholder collaboration and efficient use of existing laws to ensure institutional
embedding. While this project is mainly targeting mangrove forest areas, we would recommend extent
the efforts with a top-down approach. This approach would look at Kwale at a system scale and
includes a linking upstream and downstream land-use and water-use and quantification of ecosystem
services of not only mangroves, but also sea grasses and coral reefs and their role in climate
adaptation.

Figure 4 Kwale county. Mangroves (green), reefs (orange), protected sites (purple) and population
(red).

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