KENYA NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS

QUARTERLY LABOUR FORCE REPORT

Quarter 1, 2019
January – March, 2019

Enquiries
+254 20 3317586
[email protected]

i
Table of Contents
List of Tables ............................................................................................................... iii
1. Introduction ............................................................................................................. 4
2. Key Highlights.......................................................................................................... 4
3. Labour Force Participation ........................................................................................ 5
4. Employment............................................................................................................. 6
4.1 Employment to Population Ratio ............................................................................... 6
5. Unemployment, Long term unemployment and Labour Underutilization...................... 7
5.1 Unemployment rate [LU1] ......................................................................................... 7
5.2 Long Term Unemployment Rate................................................................................ 7
5.3 Labour underutilization [LU2] ................................................................................... 8
6. Youth Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) .......................................... 9
Appendices ................................................................................................................. 10
Appendix 1: Survey Design and Methodology ............................................................... 10
Appendix 2: Concepts and Definitions........................................................................... 12

ii
List of Tables
Table 1: Key Labour Market Indicators ............................................................................................ 4
Table 2: Participation Rates for Population 15 – 64Years by age cohorts ........................................ 5
Table 3: Employment to Population Ratios ...................................................................................... 6
Table 4: Unemployment by Age Cohorts ......................................................................................... 7
Table 5: Long-Term Unemployment by Age Cohorts ...................................................................... 8
Table 6: Unemployment, Time - Related Under Employment and Labour Underutilization by Age
Cohorts [LU2]................................................................................................................................... 8
Table 7: Youth Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) ............................................... 9
Table 8: Sample Allocation for KCHSP Per Quarter ...................................................................... 11

iii
1. Introduction
The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) is a modular survey under the Kenya
Continuous Household Survey Programme (KCHSP). The programme is designed to
provide a constant stream of data on a wide range of socio-eocnomic indicators. The QLFS
collects information about the Kenyan labour market activities for the population aged 5
years and above.

This quarterly release analyses the labour market situation for the population aged 15 to 64
years. Topics covered include labour force participation, employment, unemployment,
Labour underutilization and inactivity.

This report presents the results for the period January to March 2019.

2. Key Highlights
Table 1 presents a summary of the Key Labour Market Indicators contained in this report.
Table 1: Key Labour Market Indicators

January -March 2019

Indicator Quarter 1
Population (15-64).................................................................................. 26,593,770
Labour Force............................................................................................ 17,727,200
Employed................................................................................................. 16,635,704
Employed/Population Ratio (%)........................................................... 62.6
Unemployed............................................................................................ 1,091,496
Unemployment Rate (%)....................................................................... 6.2
Long-Term Unemployed (%)............................................................... 3.3
Not in Labor Force (Inactive)............................................................... 8,866,570
Labour Force Participation (%)............................................................ 66.7
Labour Underutilization....................................................................... 2,115,500
Labour Underutilization rate (LU2)........................................................... 11.9

4
3. Labour Force Participation
Table 2 presents the labour force participation by age cohorts. The overall labour force
participation rate stood at 66.7 per cent. Persons aged 40 – 44 years recorded the highest
rate at 90.6 per cent while those aged 15 – 19 years recorded the lowest rate at 15.3 per
cent.

Table 2: Participation Rates for Population 15 – 64Years by age cohorts

Not in
Labou r
Labou r Force T otal Participation
Age Force (Inactive) Popu lation Rate
15-19 793,017 4,384,368 5,177,385 15.3
20-24 2,346,460 2,009,865 4,356,325 53.9
25-29 3,010,136 765,277 3,775,413 79.7
30-34 2,980,740 516,652 3,497,393 85.2
35-39 2,282,042 313,674 2,595,715 87.9
40-44 2,004,356 208,514 2,212,870 90.6
45-49 1,550,954 198,646 1,749,600 88.6
50-54 1,127,350 154,399 1,281,749 88.0
55-59 936,104 159,051 1,095,155 85.5
60-64 696,041 156,124 852,165 81.7
T otal 17,727,200 8,866,570 26,593,770 66.7

5
4. Employment

4.1 Employment to Population Ratio

Table 3 presents the employment to population ratios for the population (15- 64). The
survey revealed that the overall employment to population ratio in the country, for the
working age population, was 62.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2019. The highest ratio at
88.0 per cent was for those aged 40-44 years while the lowest 13.6 per cent was for the 15-
19 years’ age cohort.

Table 3: Employment to Population Ratios

Tota l Emp loy ment

Age Emp loy ed Pop ula tion Ra tio
15-19 704,828 5,177,385 13.6
20-24 1,953,135 4,356,325 44.8
25-29 2,724,080 3,775,413 72.2
30-34 2,829,918 3,497,393 80.9
35-39 2,235,826 2,595,715 86.1
40-44 1,947,912 2,212,870 88.0
45-49 1,527,365 1,749,600 87.3
50-54 1,105,151 1,281,749 86.2
55-59 920,029 1,095,155 84.0
60-64 687,460 852,165 80.7
Tota l 16,635,704 26,593,770 62.6

6
5. Unemployment, Long term unemployment and Labour Underutilization
Information on unemployment and long-term unemployment rates are discussed in this
section. The strict definitions of unemployment was used. These results are presented in
Tables 4, 5 and 6, respectively.

5.1 Unemployment rate [LU1]

As indicated in Table 4, the survey results give a 6.2 per cent unemployment rate using the
strict definition of unemployment. The youth aged 20-24 had the highest unemployment
rate of 16.8 per cent followed by those aged 15 -19 years at 11.1 per cent. On the other
hand, those aged 35 – 64 years recorded unemployment rates of 2.8 per cent or less for each
age cohort.

Table 4: Unemployment by Age Cohorts

T otal Unem ploym ent

Age Em ployed Unem ployed Labou r Force Rate
15-19 704,828 88,189 793,017 11.1
20-24 1,953,135 393,324 2,346,460 16.8
25-29 2,724,080 286,055 3,010,136 9.5
30-34 2,829,918 150,823 2,980,740 5.1
35-39 2,235,826 46,216 2,282,042 2.0
40-44 1,947,912 56,444 2,004,356 2.8
45-49 1,527,365 23,589 1,550,954 1.5
50-54 1,105,151 22,199 1,127,350 2.0
55-59 920,029 16,075 936,104 1.7
60-64 687,460 8,581 696,041 1.2
T otal 16,635,704 1,091,495 17,727,200 6.2

5.2 Long Term Unemployment Rate

As indicated in Table 5, the survey results give a 3.3 per cent rate for the long-term
unemployment. The youth aged 20- 24 had the highest proportion of the long-term
unemployed at 8.8 per cent. On the other hand, those aged 60 - 64 years had a long-term
unemployment rate of less than 1.0 per cent.

7
Table 5: Long-Term Unemployment by Age Cohorts

Long T erm
Long T erm T otal Unemployment
Age Unemployed* Labour Force Rate
15-19 19,906 793,017 2.5
20-24 207,321 2,346,460 8.8
25-29 179,539 3,010,136 6.0
30-34 78,885 2,980,740 2.6
35-39 20,468 2,282,042 0.9
40-44 27,812 2,004,356 1.4
45-49 16,141 1,550,954 1.0
50-54 14,320 1,127,350 1.3
55-59 11,433 936,104 1.2
60-64 1,724 696,041 0.2
T otal 577,549 17,727,200 3.3
* Unemployed persons who have been looking for work for more than twelve months.

5.3 Labour underutilization [LU2]

Labour underutilization refers to mismatches between labour supply and demand, which
translate into an unmet need for employment among the population. As indicated in Table
6, the Labour Underutilization (LU2), which is the combined rate of time-related
underemployment and unemployment was 11.9 per cent. The highest rates of
underutilization are observed in the youth age groups 15-29 with labour underutilization
rates of 16.0 per cent and above.

Table 6: Unemployment, Time - Related Under Employment and Labour Underutilization by Age Cohorts
[LU2]
Labou r
T im e related Under -
Under T otal Utilization
Age Em ployed Unem ployed Labou r Force [LU2]
15-19 41,659 88,189 793,017 16.4
20-24 106,759 393,324 2,346,460 21.3
25-29 194,825 286,055 3,010,136 16.0
30-34 142,114 150,823 2,980,740 9.8
35-39 172,347 46,216 2,282,042 9.6
40-44 124,161 56,444 2,004,356 9.0
45-49 82,210 23,589 1,550,954 6.8
50-54 82,812 22,199 1,127,350 9.3
55-59 43,211 16,075 936,104 6.3
60-64 33,907 8,581 696,041 6.1
T otal 1,024,005 1,091,495 17,727,200 11.9

8
6. Youth Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET)
This section presents results of the young persons aged 15 to 34, who are no longer in the
education system and are not working or being trained for work. Table 7 presents the
distribution of the youth Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET). The
percentage of youth in NEET was recorded at 16.3 per cent. The age groups 20-24 and 15-
19 recorded higher proportions of youth in NEET at 19.4 per cent and 19.3 per cent,
respectively.

Table 7: Youth Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET)

Not in Edu cation,
Em ploym ent or T otal
Age T raining* Popu lation %
15-19 1,001,472 5,177,385 19.3
20-24 845,530 4,356,325 19.4
25-29 528,571 3,775,413 14.0
30-34 368,271 3,497,393 10.5
T otal 2,743,844 16,806,516 16.3
* Vocational training was not captured so, some of the youth might still be in training

9
Appendices

Appendix 1: Survey Design and Methodology

Sample Design
The KCHSP mainly focuses on data collection for key labour related indicators and poverty.
Under the Programme, data is collected on quarterly basis and analysis undertaken to provide
national estimates for labour indicators per quarter, and county estimates at the end of each
year (12 months) for labour and poverty indicators among others. The monitoring of labour
indicators on quarterly basis allows for analysis of changes over specific time periods.

Sample Size and Allocation

The KCHSP has a total of 50 study domains, namely; national, urban, rural and 47 counties. In
designing the sample, the minimum sample size for anticipated integrated surveys and relative
sizes of the counties was considered. The KCHSP sample consists of 1,684 clusters and 25,260
households. This sample comprise 1,300 clusters for cross-sectional survey and 384 clusters
for panel study. At the county level, the sample ranges from a minimum of 24 clusters (360
households) to maximum of 56 clusters (840 households).
Two panels are implemented alongside the cross-sectional sample in each quarter. In total, 517
(325-cross-sectional and 192 panel) clusters (7,755 households) are visited every quarter. The
sample allocation in each quarter is presented in Table 8.

Sample Frame
The sample for this survey was drawn from the Fifth National Sample Survey and Evaluation
Programme (NASSEP V). The NASSEP V Frame is composed of 5,360 clusters selected with
Probability Proportional to Size (PPS) from 96,251 Enumeration Areas (EAs) from the 2009
Population and Housing Census. In the development of NASSEP V, the 47 counties were
stratified into 92 sampling strata, that is, urban and rural strata in 45 counties plus Nairobi and
Mombasa Counties that are wholly urban.

Sampling
Two sets of units are sampled, namely; clusters and households. At the time of interviews in
the households, it is expected that individuals are eligible for various modules of the survey.
The sampling is done separately for cross-sectional and panel surveys.
Sampling of Clusters
The clusters are the primary sampling units for KCHSP and are selected independently from
each of 92 strata in NASSEP V frame. The required clusters for the entire year are selected
systematically with equal probability. The selected clusters from each stratum are further
randomized systematically into the four panels.

10
Sampling of Households
A total of 15 households per cluster are sampled systematically (with random start) from the
list of updated households. Sampling of the households is done centrally at the head-office and
interviews are only undertaken in the preselected households.

Table 8: Sample Allocation for KCHSP Per Quarter

County Clusters Households
Cross- Cross-
Code Nam e Panel Total Panel Total
sectional sectional
1 MOMBASA 8 4 12 120 60 180
2 KWALE 7 4 11 105 60 165
3 KILIFI 7 4 11 105 60 165
4 TANA RIVER 6 2 8 90 30 120
5 LAMU 5 2 7 75 30 105
6 TAITA TAVETA 6 4 10 90 60 150
7 GARISSA 6 4 10 90 60 150
8 WAJIR 6 4 10 90 60 150
9 MANDERA 7 4 11 105 60 165
10 MARSABIT 6 4 10 90 60 150
11 ISIOLO 5 2 7 75 30 105
12 MERU 8 6 14 120 90 210
13 THARAKA 6 4 10 90 60 150
14 EMBU 7 4 11 105 60 165
15 KITUI 7 4 11 105 60 165
16 MACHAKOS 8 4 12 120 60 180
17 MAKUENI 7 4 11 105 60 165
18 NYANDARUA 7 4 11 105 60 165
19 NYERI 7 4 11 105 60 165
20 KIRINYAGA 7 4 11 105 60 165
21 MURANG'A 8 4 12 120 60 180
22 KIAMBU 8 6 14 120 90 210
23 TURKANA 7 4 11 105 60 165
24 WEST POKOT 6 4 10 90 60 150
25 SAMBURU 6 2 8 90 30 120
26 TRANS NZOIA 7 4 11 105 60 165
27 BARINGO 6 4 10 90 60 150
28 UASIN GISHU 7 4 11 105 60 165
29 ELGEYO-MARAKWET 6 4 10 90 60 150
30 NANDI 7 4 11 105 60 165
31 LAIKIPIA 6 4 10 90 60 150
32 NAKURU 8 6 14 120 90 210
33 NAROK 7 4 11 105 60 165
34 KAJIADO 7 4 11 105 60 165
35 KERICHO 7 4 11 105 60 165
36 BOMET 7 4 11 105 60 165
37 KAKAMEGA 8 6 14 120 90 210
38 VIHIGA 7 4 11 105 60 165
39 BUNGOMA 8 4 12 120 60 180
40 BUSIA 7 4 11 105 60 165
41 SIAYA 7 4 11 105 60 165
42 KISUMU 7 4 11 105 60 165
43 MIGORI 7 4 11 105 60 165
44 HOMA BAY 7 4 11 105 60 165
45 KISII 7 4 11 105 60 165
46 NYAMIRA 7 4 11 105 60 165
47 NAIROBI 10 8 18 150 120 270
325 192 517 4,875 2,880 7,755

11
Appendix 2: Concepts and Definitions
Economically Active: The activity principle of the labour force framework is based on the
concept of production of goods and services falling under the production frontiers of the
United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA 2008). The economically active
population analysed here consisted of the employed and the unemployed persons. The
employed includes those persons who reported that they did some work during the
reference period or they held a job even if they were not actually doing any work at the
time. This covers persons who were on leave or had a business to return to. The
unemployed were persons who reported to be without work, available for work and
actively seeking work. Also included here were persons who though they may not satisfy
the criteria for unemployment, reported that they were out of season or on temporary
layoff.
Inactive Population: The economically inactive population also known as persons not in
the labour force, covers persons who did not work or hold a job during the reference period
and did not seek work because they were either full time students, infirm/incapacitated,
retired or did not need work due to unspecified reasons. Persons who reported that they
were retrenched or declared redundant and persons whose businesses closed and had not
taken steps towards looking for alternative jobs or starting other businesses were included
in the inactive population.
Labour force: consists of all persons in the working age population who are either employed
or unemployed. It was previously also referred to as the ‘currently active population’
Employment: Refers to performance of work as defined above. This term is used to measure
the number of persons employed, including persons at work during a short reference
period, and also persons temporarily absent from work but holding a job.
Unemployment: Under the strict terms is defined as people who do not have a job, have
actively looked for work in the past four weeks, and are currently available for work.
Long-term unemployment: This refers to all unemployed persons with continuous periods
of unemployment extending for one year or longer (52 weeks and over).
Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR): The LFPR is a measure of the proportion of a
country’s working-age population that engages actively in the labour market, either by
working or looking for work; it provides an indication of the size of the supply of labour
available to engage in the production of goods and services, relative to the population at
working age
Working patterns: Depending on their daily or weekly working hours, persons may work
either on full-time or part-time basis.
The Working-age Population (WAP): includes all persons in the population above a
specified age threshold used for statistical purposes to define the economically active
population
Dependency ratio: This is an indicator of the economic burden the productive portion of
the population must bear. It is computed as a ratio of the population considered to be
12
“dependent” (aged below 15 years and 65 years and above) to the working age population
(15 to 64 years).
Employment to population ratio: This is the proportion of a country’s working age
population that is employed. It gives an indication of the job opportunities that are available
for the persons in the economically active age groups in an economy. A high employment
to population ratio indicates that a large proportion of the population is employed, while a
low ratio means that large share of the population is not directly involved in market related
economic activities because they are either unemployed or out of the labour force.
Time-related underemployment rate: This is a measure of labour underutilization that
provides information regarding the share of employed persons who are willing and
available to increase their working time (for production within the SNA production
boundary) and worked fewer hours than a specified time threshold during the reference
period.
Labour underutilization: Refers to mismatches between labour supply and demand, which
translate into an unmet need for employment among the population. Labour Under
Utilization [LU2] is computed as the combined rate of time-related underemployment and
unemployment.

Zachary Mwangi, EBS

Director General, KNBS

13