Changes in Poultry Production and Trade Worldwide
Changes in Poultry Production and Trade Worldwide
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Global poultry meat and egg production as well as trade with poultry products have
shown a remarkable dynamic during the last 35 years. Between 1970 and 2005
poultry meat and egg production increased faster than that of beef and veal or
pigmeat. The trade volume of poultry meat increased even faster than production. In
2004, 12% of the poultry meat produced reached the world market but only 1.8% of
the eggs. The rapid increase in poultry meat production has been very imbalanced.
Whereas North and Central America as well as Europe lost market shares, China
and Brazil became new centres of production in Asia and South America. In hen egg
production Asia was the only winner in the analysed time period, all other continents
lost market shares. The increase in regional concentration is mainly due to the
dominating role of China. Developing countries surpassed developed countries in
their production volume between 1990 and 2000. At the present time, they contribute
about 55% to global poultry meat and 68% to egg production.
The trade volume of poultry products increased parallel to the rapid growth of global
poultry meat and egg production. The regional concentration of poultry meat as well
as egg exports and imports is very high. In contrast to production, the contribution
of developing countries to the export volume of poultry products is still much lower
than that of developed countries. Even though developing countries were able to gain
higher market shares during the past 35 years, the regional shift from developed to
developing countries has been less dramatic than that in poultry meat and hen egg
production. Especially hen eggs are still mainly traded between European as well as
Asian countries.
Outbreaks of Avian Influenza will have impacts on production and consumption,
resulting in serious financial problems of major producers and new spatial patterns
of production and trade flows. The full implementation of directive 1999/74/EU for
laying hens will also have impacts on egg production and egg trade, as the EU will
probably no longer be an egg surplus region but be forced to import.
Keywords: poultry meat production; egg production; poultry meat trade; egg trade;
regional shift
054759_Journal_4 02-11-2006 08:36 Pagina 586
Global poultry meat and egg production as well as trade with poultry products have shown
a remarkable dynamic during the last 35 years. Between 1970 and 2005 poultry meat and
egg production increased faster than beef and veal or pigmeat production (Table 1). This
is especially true for poultry meat. In 1970, poultry meat reached only a production
volume of 15.1 M. t whereas 38.3 M. t of pigmeat were produced worldwide. In 1995
poultry meat surpassed beef and veal production, in 2005, the production volume of
poultry meat was about 21 M. t higher. A comparison with pigmeat shows that for both
meat types an increase of about 65 M. t could be realised. The gap in the production
volume is still about 20 M. t, smaller, however, than in the late 1980s when it was as large
as 28. M. t. Hen egg production more than tripled in the analysed time period and within
a few years the production volume will be higher than that of beef and veal if the growth
rates remain fairly constant.
The trade volume of poultry meat increased much faster than production as can be seen
from the data in Table 2. In 1970, only 521,000 t of poultry meat were exported
worldwide, the volume increased to 9.7 M. t in 2004. Whereas in 1970 only 3.5% of the
produced poultry meat reached the world market, the share was 12% in 2004. This
development has no parallel in trade with shell eggs. Here, the trade volume only
increased from 0.4 M. t to 1.4 M. t in the same time period. The share of exported hen eggs
even decreased from a peak of 2.8% in 1980 to 1.8% in 2004.
The main objectives of this study are:
• To give an overview about the time-spatial dynamic of poultry production and trade
with poultry products,
• To analyse the specific dynamic in developed and developing countries,
• To identify the centres of production and the leading exporting and importing
countries of poultry products,
• To discuss what impacts the outbreaks of Avian Influenza and the EU Directive for
keeping laying hens may have on poultry meat and egg production.
imbalanced. North and Central America as well as Europe lost market shares in the
analysed time period, Asia and South America could increase their contribution to global
production considerably. In 1970, North and Central America, Europe, and the USSR had
a share of more than 71% of the global production volume, Asia and South America of less
than 24%. In 2005, the latter contributed almost 50% to global poultry meat production.
The highest absolute growth rate can be observed in Asia with an increase of almost 25 M.
t between 1970 and 2005, followed by South America with 12 M. t. The highest relative
growth rate shows South America. Quite obviously, the centre of poultry meat production
shifted from North and Central America to South and East Asia, and within a few years,
the production volume in South America will surpass that of Europe.
A comparison of the ten leading countries in poultry meat production in 1970 and 2005
(Table 6) further documents the regional shift. In 1970, only two of the ten leading
countries were developing countries, and two, China and Japan, were located in Asia. With
a share of almost 31%, the USA dominated this branch of poultry production. In 2005, five
of the ten leading countries were developing countries and four were located in Asia. The
United States were still in the top position with a share of 22.9%, but China and Brazil
now ranked as number two and three. The regional concentration slightly decreased from
68.4% to 66.3%, a result of the growing importance of poultry meat production in an
increasing number of countries.
In order to better understand the changing spatial pattern of poultry meat production, a
short analysis of the changing contribution of the various poultry meat types to total poultry
meat production will be necessary. From the data in Table 7 one can see that chicken meat
reached the highest share with 88.3% in the mid 1980s, after that it decreased to about 86%
and has remained fairly stable since then. In 1990, turkey meat reached its peak with 9.0%,
from then on it has continuously decreased and only contributed 6.4% in 2005. It is worth
mentioning that from the mid 1980s on the share of duck and goose meat has considerably
increased from 3.8% to 7.1%. Most of the duck and goose meat is produced in developing
countries. In 2005 they contributed 86% to duck meat and 96% to goose meat production.
China was in an absolutely dominating position, as this country alone contributed 68% to
global duck meat and 93% to global goose meat production.
In contrast to duck, goose, and chicken meat, where developing countries are
contributing the majority to the global production volume, developed countries are still
dominating turkey meat production (Table 8). Even though high relative growth rates in
developing countries can be observed since the mid 1990s, the share of developing
countries was still less than 10% in 2005.
A more detailed analysis on the basis of the ten leading countries reveals (Table 9) that
the USA dominated turkey meat production with a share of 64.1% in 1970, followed by
Canada. Mexico was the only developing country which was ranked among the top ten
producing countries. In 2005, the USA were still in a leading position, however, several
other countries could gain higher market shares, in particular France and Germany. Brazil
and Chile, which were not to be found among the leading countries in 1970, ranked as
number 6 and 10. These two countries alone contributed about two thirds to the production
volume of all developing countries. It is worth mentioning that Asian countries do not yet
play a major role in turkey meat production. This is mainly due to the fact that the
consumption of turkey meat does not have a tradition in South and East Asia, not even in
restaurants with international menus in the metropolitan areas. Because of the low demand
no major breeding company has so far invested in turkey hatcheries or distribution centres
for turkey chickens. In addition to that no experience has been developed for turkey
growing and there is no infrastructure available, neither for consulting nor for processing
and marketing. The reasons for the still dominating role of developed countries in North
America and Europe are on the one hand the long tradition of poultry meat consumption
in North America and on the other the impacts of the BSE crisis on meat consumption in
Europe. Nevertheless, turkey meat consumption has quite obviously reached a plateau in
several developed countries. The result is a stagnating or even decreasing production
volume (c.f. Windhorst 2005).
• The dramatic regional shift in egg production is documented by the fact that in 2005
only one of the top ten egg producing countries was located in Europe, in 1970, it had
been six. In contrast, only two of the ten leading egg producing countries were located
in Asia in 1970, in 2005, there were five. Only three of them, China, India, and Japan,
contributed almost 50% to global egg production.
dominating country in North as well as in South America can be observed, Europe has
developed a more polycentric pattern.
In a next step, the time-spatial development of poultry meat imports will be analysed.
Table 16 shows that in contrast to the development of poultry meat exports, where a
continuous increase of the share of developing countries could be observed, the import
share fluctuated considerably. A first peak was reached in the early 1980s, when
developing countries, because of a growth of per capita consumption, imported 50% and
more of the poultry meat that reached the world market. In the following years, developed
countries showed higher growth rates, but a second short peak was reached in the late
1990s. From then on, most of the traded poultry meat was imported by developed
countries. This is mainly due to the fast increase of the production volume in developing
countries which was better able to meet the increasing demand than in the 1980s
(c.f. Tables 3 and 6).
A closer look at the development on the basis of continents (Table 17) reveals that in 1970
most of the poultry meat was imported by European countries. From the early 1980s on,
Asia reached higher market shares, then, however, Europe became the leading importing
continent again. This is a very general statement, however, so that a more detailed analysis
on the basis of single countries will be necessary to specify the regional shifts.
From the data in Table 18 one can see that Germany was the leading importing country
in 1970. Almost 50% of all poultry meat that reached the world market was imported by
this country, and the Netherlands were the main supplier. Four of the top ten ranked
importing countries were located in Asia and one in Central America. In 2004, the
situation had changed completely. Russia was the leading importing country with a share
of 12.6%, followed by China and Japan. Germany was in fifth place with a share of 6.3%
of the global import volume. The regional concentration of imports decreased from 74.1%
to only 62.6% in the analysed time period. This shows that poultry meat has become an
attractive and affordable meal in many more countries. This is also documented by a more
even distribution of the imports.
two, together they contributed 35.4% to the global export volume, followed by China.
Several countries, which were not to be found in the top ranks in 1970, reached a leading
position in 2004. This is especially true for Spain, the USA, Malaysia, and India. The
composition of the top ranked countries further documents the dominating role which
Europe and Asia play in hen egg trade.
In spite of the increasing demand, the share of developing countries of global hen egg
imports has been fluctuating between 24% and 35% in the analysed time period
(Table 22). This documents on the one hand the increasing production volume in several
developing countries, on the other the fact that most of the consumed eggs stem from
domestic production.
A comparison of Tables 20 and 23 shows that egg trade is to a high degree a
phenomenon between European as well as Asian countries. Nevertheless, Africa has
become a more attractive market during the last decade. It is interesting that South
American countries are not playing a major role in egg trade so far. North and Central
American countries are trading eggs mostly between the three NAFTA members.
A more detailed analysis of the leading egg importing countries in 1970 and 2004
(Table 24) shows that the regional concentration decreased from almost 81% to 73%.
Quite obviously, an increasing number of countries imports shell eggs. Germany has been
the leading egg importing country over more than three decades. In 1970, almost one third
of all traded shell eggs were imported by this country. Even though the share decreased to
25.2% in 2004, Germany was still by far the largest importer. The import volume would
have grown to about 10 or 11 billion eggs from 2012 on if Germany had not altered the
national directive of October 2001 which would have banned conventional as well as
enriched cages (c.f. Windhorst 2004). With the change of administration in 2005, new
initiatives were started to develop a new directive and permit so called small aviaries. This
directive was passed by the Bundesrat in April 2006 and approved by the government in
May. Even though the regulations are stricter than those of the EU for enriched cages, the
industry is more optimistic about the future of German egg production. Nevertheless, the
regulations may have far reaching impacts on the number of laying hens as the directive
demands for example that the aviaries have to be at least 60 cm high and that the lower
aviary has to be 35 cm above ground. If one calculates that about 25 cm per layer are
needed for the installation of manure belts, then only two layers of aviaries can be installed
in existing hen houses which formerly held three to four of conventional cages. The
dominating role that European countries have been playing in egg trade is documented by
the fact that in 1970 and 2004 seven of the ten leading countries were located in this
continent. What impacts the full implementation of the German directive and of directive
1999/74/EU, which bans conventional cages from 2012 on and demands enriched cages in
new facilities from 2003 on, will have on egg trade is a still open question. It can, however,
be expected that the EU will at least from 2012 on no longer be an egg surplus region
(c.f. Windhorst 2001, Wollfram et al., 2002).
The main results of the second part of this analysis can be summarised as follows:
• The trade volume of poultry products increased parallel to the rapid growth of global
poultry meat and egg production.
• Whereas about 12% of the produced poultry meat reached the world market in 2004,
less than 2% of hen eggs were exported respectively imported. Most of the produced
eggs remained on domestic markets.
• The regional concentration of poultry meat exports is very high. In 2004, the ten
leading countries contributed about 87% to the global export volume, the USA and
Brazil alone over 54%.
• The regional concentration of poultry meat imports is much lower. The ten leading
countries had a share of 62.6%. None of the countries was in a dominating position.
• The regional concentration in egg exports and imports is also very high. In 2004, the
ten leading countries contributed 81% to the global export volume and had a share of
73% of the import volume. The Netherlands were the dominating egg exporting and
Germany was the dominating egg importing country.
• In contrast to poultry meat and eggs, where the production volume of developing
countries surpassed that of developed countries in the 1990s, their contribution to the
export volume of these products is still much lower than that of developed countries.
• Developing countries were able to gain higher market shares during the past 35 years
but the regional shift from developed to developing countries has been less dramatic
than that in poultry meat and hen egg production.
Discussion
The preceding study could show the remarkable dynamic of the global poultry industry
over the past 35 years. The dramatic increase of the production volume over time was,
however, very imbalanced from a spatial perspective. Developing countries surpassed the
production volume of poultry meat and eggs of developed countries in the1990s. Asian
and South American countries, in particular China and Brazil as new centres of
production, were the winners, European and North American countries the losers. The fact
that developing countries contributed almost 67% to global egg production in 2005 is
mainly due to the dominating role of China, as this country alone had a share of 41.1% of
the global production volume. In Table 25 the changing contribution of developing
countries to global poultry meat and hen egg production over the analysed time period is
presented with and without China. One can easily see that the contribution of developing
countries without China to egg production increased only until 1990, from then on it has
been hovering around 27% or even decreasing. Quite obviously, egg production in
developed countries is recently growing at least as fast as that in developing countries. The
contribution of China to poultry meat production is much lower and even decreased
between 2000 and 2005. Nevertheless, the share of developing countries has continuously
decreased. This is mainly due to the fast growth of production in Brazil and several
countries in South and East Asia. It can be expected that the share of developing countries,
even if China is excluded, will further increase.
In contrast to Brazil, where an almost unlimited supply of the components for feed
production, especially soybeans, is available, China may have problems in maintaining
the high growth rates in future because of a shortage in feed supply. The consequences
could either be slower growth rates or increasing imports of feed components respectively
poultry products. Increasing imports of feed components would lead to a rise of the world
market price for soybeans and corn and result in higher production costs worldwide. A
similar dynamic has been going on for some years on the global steel market. Increasing
imports would result in higher world market prices for poultry meat and favour growers
and processors in the surplus regions of North and South America as well as in Europe.
The remarkable dynamic of the poultry industry could, however, come to an abrupt halt
if the spatial dissemination of the Avian Influenza virus cannot be stopped. Outbreaks in
Europe and Africa in the first quarter of 2006 had the result that consumers refrained from
eating poultry meat and eggs. According to FAO estimates, the Avian Influenza crisis
could easily lead to a decrease of global poultry meat consumption by 3 M. t in 2006. This
would have far reaching impacts on the development of the world market price and cause
serious financial problems for those processors which heavily depend on exports.
Another impact of a further dissemination of the Avian Influenza virus must not be
forgotten. The eradication of large numbers of poultry flocks in developing countries,
especially in Africa, could easily worsen the already limited food supply and result in a
famine in several sub-Saharan countries. New outbreaks will necessarily reduce the share
of developing countries of poultry meat and egg production as they in most cases neither
have the knowledge nor the financial means to prevent a further spread of the highly
contagious disease.
References
FAO database: www.fao.org.
WINDHORST, H.-W. (2001) Enriched layer cages and open markets for agricultural products – is there a
chance for the European egg industry? Zootecnica 23 (8): 21-34.
WINDHORST, H.-W. (2004) Will Germany actually ban cages in 2004? Zootecnica 26(4): 18-29.
WINDHORST, H.-W. (2005) Changing regional patterns of turkey production and turkey meat trade. In:
Turkey production: prospects on future developments (Hafez, H., Ed.). Berlin, Germany: Mensch und Buch
Verlag, pp. 25-41.
WOLFFRAM, R., SIMONS, J., GIEBEL, A. and R. BONGAERTS (2002) Impacts of stricter legal standards
in the EU for keeping laying hens in battery cages. World’s Poultry Science Journal 58: 365-370.
Table 1 Development of global meat and hen egg production between 1970 and 2005; data in 1,000 t
(FAO database).
Table 2 Development of exported poultry meat and hen eggs between 1970 and 2004 (FAO database, own
calculations).
Year Exported poultry meat Export share Exported hen eggs Export share
1,000 t % 1,000 t %
Table 3 Development of poultry meat production in developed and developing countries between 1970 and
2005; data in 1,000 t (FAO database).
Table 4 Development of hen egg production in developed and developing countries between 1970 and
2005; data in 1,000 t (FAO database).
Table 5 Changing contribution of the continents to global poultry meat production between 1970 and
2005; data in % (FAO database, own calculations).
Table 6 Ten leading countries in poultry meat production in 1970 and 2005 (FAO database).
1970 2005
Country Production Share Country Production Share
(1,000 t) (%) (1,000 t) (%)
Table 7 Development of the share of various poultry meat types of global poultry meat production
between 1970 and 2005; data in % (FAO database, own calculations).
Table 8 Development of turkey meat production in developed and developing countries between 1970 and
2005; data in 1,000 t (FAO database).
Table 9 Ten leading countries in turkey meat production in 1970 and 2005 (FAO database).
1970 2005
Country Production Share Country Production Share
(1,000 t) (%) (1,000 t) (%)
Table 10 Changing contribution of the continents to global hen egg production between 1970 and 2005;
data in % (FAO database, own calculations)
Table 11 Ten leading countries in hen egg production in 1970 and 2005 (FAO database).
1970 2005
Country Production Share Country Production Share
(1,000 t) (%) (1,000 t) (%)
Table 12 Development of poultry meat exports by developed and developing countries between 1970 and
2004; data in 1,000 t (FAO database).
Table 13 Changing contribution of poultry meat types to global poultry meat exports between 1970 and
2004; data in %.
Table 14 Changing contribution of the continents to global poultry meat exports between 1970 and 2004;
data in % (FAO database, own calculations).
Table 15 Ten leading poultry meat exporting countries in 1970 and 2004 (FAO database).
1970 2004
Country Exports Share Country Exports Share
(1,000 t) (%) (1,000 t) (%)
Table 16 Development of poultry meat imports by developed and developing countries between 1970 and
2004; data in 1,000 t (FAO database).
Table 17 Changing share of the continents of global poultry meat imports between 1970 and 2004; data in
% (FAO database, own calculations).
Table 18 Ten leading poultry meat importing countries in 1970 and 2004 (FAO database).
1970 2004
Country Imports Share Country Imports Share
(1,000 t) (%) (1,000 t) (%)
Table 19 Development of egg exports by developed and developing countries between 1970 and 2004; data in
1,000 t (FAO database).
Table 20 Changing contribution of the continents to global hen egg exports between 1970 and 2004; data
in % (FAO database, own calculations).
Table 21 Ten leading hen egg exporting countries in 1970 and 2004 (FAO database).
1970 2004
Country Exports Share Country Exports Share
(t) (%) (t) (%)
Table 22 Development of egg imports by developed and developing countries between 1970 and 2004; data
in 1,000 t (FAO database).
Table 23 Changing share of the continents of global hen egg imports between 1970 and 2004; data in %
(FAO database, own calculations).
Table 24 Ten leading hen egg importing countries in 1970 and 2004 (FAO database).
1970 2004
Country Imports Share Country Imports Share
(t) (%) (t) (%)
Table 25 Changing contribution of developing countries and China to global hen egg and poultry meat
production between 1970 and 2005; data in % (FAO database, own calculations).
Hen eggs
Year Developing countries total China Developing countries without China
Poultry meat
Year Developing countries total China Developing countries without China