Final Web Version Report Investment Trends 2024
Final Web Version Report Investment Trends 2024
#GetTheFutureYouWant
2
Introduction
In the 2023 edition of our investment trends report, we
talked about the looming recession and contrasted this
gloomy outlook with business leaders’ optimism around
the resilience of their individual organizations to withstand
and progress against these headwinds. As 2024 approaches,
business sentiment is, once again, on an upswing, with
business leaders exhibiting confidence in their organizations’
growth potential for the year ahead, despite the backdrop
of shifting business, macroeconomic, and geopolitical
risks. We examine how this positive outlook is impacting
investment priorities going forward and, in particular,
changing investment strategies in areas such as emerging
technologies, with AI and generative AI, sustainability, and
supply chain being key areas of focus.
To do so, we surveyed business leaders from 2,000
organizations across 15 countries and multiple sectors,
including automotive; consumer products; banking and
capital markets; insurance; retail; life sciences; telecom,
media, and high-tech; manufacturing; and energy and
utilities. Please refer to the methodology for more details on
the survey.
Introduction
Drawing on this extensive research, we explore the key – The majority of organizations view climate change
themes below: as a pressing existential risk for their businesses and
for society and, consequently, are committed to
• More business leaders than last year are optimistic about increasing their level of investment in sustainability in
their organization’s growth potential for the year ahead. 2024. The consensus is that regulation, especially that
incentivizing adoption of clean tech, can help drive
• Driven by this optimism, in 2024 organizations are
sustainability investment.
planning to increase investment in several areas:
– Supply chain features as one of the top three most
– As organizations set about transforming themselves
vulnerable areas for business this year. Driven
into digital companies, they plan to focus on key areas
by geopolitical tensions, climatic disruptions,
such as AI/generative AI, cloud, cybersecurity, 5G, and
reliance on China-based suppliers, and emerging
digital twins.
regulations, many of the organizations we surveyed
– With organizations viewing emerging technologies as are adopting nearshoring and friend-shoring (where
a value play driving innovation and new revenue, AI/ organizations base their supply chains in politically and
generative AI is a leading investment area for 9 out of economically allied countries) strategies to de-risk their
10 organizations. Organizations concur on the role of manufacturing and supply chains.
generative AI on redefining, augmenting, and liberating,
rather than replacing, human creativity.
01
BUSINESS LEADERS ARE
INCREASINGLY OPTIMISTIC AND
ARE DRIVING INVESTMENT IN
KEY AREAS
Capgemini Research Institute 2024
7
More business leaders expected in 2023. However, for 2024, more than half
(56%) are optimistic about their organization’s outlook for
performance
Business leaders are facing several challenges today,
%
56
from persistent inflation, high interest rates, and volatile
energy supplies, to skills gaps and snarled-up supply
chains, all against a backdrop of geopolitical conflict
that feeds into all of these. However, despite having
to contend with these uncertain market conditions
throughout 2023, most business leaders are confident of business leaders are optimistic
of their organization’s ability to navigate through these about their organization’s outlook
disruptions and are optimistic about prospects for growth for 2024
in 2024.
Last year’s survey showed that only 42% of business
leaders at that time were positive about the future of
their organization, considering the economic headwinds
FIGURE 1.
A majority of business leaders based in the EU, UK, and Canada see a huge shift from last year in terms
of optimism about the future of their organization
PERCENTAGE OF BUSINESS LEADERS WHO ARE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE OUTLOOK FOR THEIR ORGANIZATION, GROUPED BY COUNTRY OF PRIMARY RESIDENCE
70%
65% 64% 65%
62% 61% 59%
56% 57% 56% 56% 55%
50% 50% 52% 54% 54% 53% 53% 52%
45% 47%
42% 43% 41%
36%
32% 34% 32%
29% 27%
24%
Global Canada Sweden UK US Netherlands China Japan France Singapore Australia Germany India Brazil Spain Italy
Source: Capgemini Research Institute, Global Investment Research Edition 2, November 2023, N=2,000 business leaders;
Capgemini Research Institute, Global Investment Research Edition 1, November 2022, N=2,000 business leaders.
Source: Capgemini Research Institute, Global Investment Research Edition 2, November 2023, N=2,000 business leaders;
Capgemini Research Institute, Global Investment Research Edition 1, November 2022, N=2,000 business leaders.
IMRAN ANSANI
Head of Retail Edge
Solutions and Ecosystems
at Dell
leading digital investment PERCENTAGE OF BUSINESS LEADERS PLANNING TO FOCUS ON THE FOLLOWING DIGITAL TOOLS
AND TECHNOLOGIES
Many organizations already see generative AI as a powerful
tool with which to accelerate growth, enhance capabilities, 88%
85%
and unlock new opportunities without drastic restructuring 79%
75%
of business models. Pat Geraghty, CEO of GuideWell, a
65%
US-based mutual insurance organization, comments: “Every
board meeting we’ve had this year has had a standing agenda
item of AI and ChatGPT. As we’re thinking about where we’re
39% 40%
going, we want to make sure we’ve got our board with us.”11 33% 36%
33% 33%
Our recent research highlights that generative AI is on 24%
the boardroom agenda at 96% of organizations surveyed 18% 20%
12%
globally.12 In our research, 88% of business leaders plan to
focus on AI and generative AI in the next 12–18 months (see
Figure 4). AI and Cloud** Cybersecurity 5G and Digital twins Consumer Synthetic Blockchain Quantum
generative AI* edge and metaverse**** biology technologies
In the following sections, we explore three key investment computing immersive
trends in detail: the growing prominence of AI and generative technologies
AI; the focus on sustainability; and the pivot towards for industrial
applications***
nearshoring and friend-shoring of manufacturing and supply
chains. Percentage of organizations planning to increase Percentage of organizations planning to focus on the
investments in the above technologies in 2023 above technologies in 2024
Note: *Data for “Intelligent automation (AI/ML/cognitive technologies etc.)” in Edition 1 research; **Data for “IT infrastructure and Cloud” in Edition
1 research; ***Data for “operational technologies such as digital twins, automation, operational visibility, etc.” in Edition 1 research; ****Data for
“Immersive tech such as metaverse, web 3.0, etc.” in Edition 1 research.
Synthetic biology, blockchain, and quantum technologies were not asked about in the research for Edition 1.
Source: Capgemini Research Institute, Global Investment Research Edition 2, November 2023, N=2,000 business leaders; Capgemini Research Institute,
Global Investment Research Edition 1, November 2022, N=2,000 business leaders.
FIGURE 5.
Cybersecurity is a top risk to business growth
A deep dive into IN THE NEXT 12–18 MONTHS, GROUPED BY LOCATION OF ORGANIZATIONAL HEADQUARTERS
cybersecurity:
68% 66% 66% 66%
61% 64% 63% 62%
Cybercrime is estimated to have cost business over 61% 61% 58% 58% 57% 57%
54%
$8 trillion in 2023 and this figure is forecast to 50%
44% 44% 42% 43%
increase by 70% by 2028, to approach $14 trillion.13 39% 38% 38% 39% 41% 41%
38%
41%
35% 37% 37%
Cyberattacks are more frequent and sophisticated, 33%
prompting organizations to bolster their security
measures and recruit cybersecurity experts, and
adapt to comply with new regulations designed
to protect their industry. As Figure 5 shows, 61%
of business leaders consider cybersecurity threats Global France Spain China Sweden Singapore Netherlands Germany
to be a leading risk to business growth (compared Canada UK US Japan Australia Italy Brazil India
with 39% last year).
2023 2024
Source: Capgemini Research Institute, Global Investment Research Edition 2, November 2023, N=2,000 business leaders;
Capgemini Research Institute, Global Investment Research Edition 1, November 2022, N=2,000 business leaders.
of business leaders consider cybersecurity When used in conjunction with traditional methods,
threats to be a leading risk to business growth AI offers a powerful defense against AI-powered
in 2024 cyberattacks, as cited by 34% of business leaders
in our research. A recent survey highlights that
34% of organizations have already implemented AI
application security tools to mitigate the concomitant
As Figure 4 shows, 79% of business leaders plan to risks of generative AI.16 At the same time, generative
focus on cybersecurity in the next 12–18 months. AI can enhance accuracy of threat-identification;
“The convergence of IT and OT systems will create a generate realistic training data to test ML models’
larger attack surface for cybercriminals, increasing attack detection and prevention; and automate
their potential to compromise operational systems routine security tasks. Additionally, 44% of technology
that control critical infrastructure. Organizations must leaders in our survey say that their cybersecurity may
prioritize cybersecurity measures that protect their be compromised if they fail to become quantum-
entire infrastructure, from the endpoints to the core safe (i.e., resistant to quantum as well as traditional
systems,” emphasizes Agnidipta Sarkar, former Group cyberattacks) in the near future.
CISO at India-based biopharma Biocon.14 Moreover,
02
AI AND GENERATIVE AI:
AUGMENTING HUMAN
INGENUITY
AI will play a more than 450 companies are pursuing AI-driven drug discovery.19
Paul Hudson, CEO, Sanofi, adds: “Our ambition is to become
the first pharma company powered by AI at scale, giving our
people tools and technologies that focus on insights and allow
decision-making FIGURE 6.
AI will play a more prominent role in critical decision-making, with life sciences and healthcare leading the way
A recent report from Goldman Sachs shows that PERCENTAGE OF CRITICAL DECISIONS MADE THROUGH THE ASSISTANCE OF AI – TODAY AND IN FIVE
organizations are ramping up investment in AI, which YEARS FROM NOW, GROUPED BY INDUSTRY
could reach $200 billion by 2025.17 Figure 4 from our
27%
survey also highlights AI and generative AI as a key area Global
16%
for technology investment in 2024. 47%
Life sciences and healthcare
33%
In our previous research on data-powered enterprises, 31%
Automotive
we found that 50% of organizations base their decisions 18%
on data, rather than on intuition, personal judgment, or 29%
Banking and capital markets
18%
observation.18 AI supports operational decision-making, 27%
Telecom, media, and high-tech
identifying patterns, and predicting scenarios that the 16%
decision-makers can then use as a focus for analysis Retail 27%
15%
and discussion. However, going forward, we are likely 25%
to see AI’s increasing involvement in assisting critical Insurance
15%
decision-making – i.e., decisions that have a significant Consumer products manufacturing 24%
impact on the business, involve considerable resources, 12%
21%
and carry significant risk (see Figure 6). Within the life Industrial manufacturing
11%
sciences industry, for example, nearly half (47%) of critical Energy and utilities
20%
decisions in the next five years are expected to involve the 10%
assistance of AI. As per recent estimates, already more Critical decision-making that is likely to use the Critical decision-making that uses the
assistance of AI in your organization five years from now assistance of AI today in your organization
Source: Capgemini Research Institute, Global Investment Research Edition 2, November 2023, N=2,000 business leaders.
Generative AI offers an
opportunity to ramp up
innovation and productivity,
boosting revenue
Generative AI is transforming the way we interact with
technology. Machines are beginning to mimic human
creative thought processes, synthesizing tailored content,
contributing to product design, and supporting decision-
making. This has significant implications for the way
organizations work. A majority of business leaders in our
research agree that it offers an immense opportunity in
terms of innovation and new revenue streams (see Figure 7).
• Clothing-service company Stitch Fix already uses AI
to prepare recommendations to customers and is
experimenting with DALL-E 2 to offer visualization of
clothing designs based on customers’ color, fabric, and
style preferences.21
establish guardrails for PERCENTAGE OF BUSINESS LEADERS AGREEING TO THE STATEMENT, “THE EU’S REGULATION- AND
GUIDELINES-LED APPROACH TO GENERATIVE AI REDUCES UNCERTAINTY,” GROUPED BY LOCATION OF
generative AI ORGANIZATIONAL HEADQUARTERS
Global 61%
While generative AI carries vast potential, ethical and
transparency concerns require clear regulation and new Singapore 77%
guidelines. In our research, 43% of organizations rate “lack 71%
Japan
of regulation” as a challenge to implementing and scaling
generative AI. Recently, European Union officials have India 68%
reached a provisional deal27 on the EU AI act – which aims China 66%
to classify AI usage based on risk level, prohibiting certain 66%
US
uses, and imposing stringent monitoring and disclosure
requirements for high-risk applications. In fact, in our Australia 62%
research, 61% of business leaders believe28 that the EU’s EU 58%
regulation- and guidelines-led approach to generative AI will
Canada 58%
reduce uncertainty (see Figure 8). Interestingly, 66% of US
business leaders believe that the expected guidelines will UK 54%
reduce uncertainty, compared to 58% of EU business leaders. 49%
Brazil
Note: The survey was conducted before December 9, 2023, when the EU AI draft regulation was finally agreed upon by the
European Parliament and the Council presidency.
Source: Capgemini Research Institute, Global Investment Research Edition 2, November 2023, N=2,000 business leaders.
• inappropriate or inaccurate content, commonly complex business problems. At the same time, there
termed AI “hallucinations” is a need to ensure that there are proper guardrails to
prevent the explosion of shadow IT in organizations
• data leakage.
– which can lead to potential security vulnerabilities,
It is critical to build safeguards against these risks increased development costs, and reputational risks for
to increase trust towards AI among leaders, users, organizations. “The potential for increased technical debt
and regulators. and orphan code is always a concern when delivery can be
accelerated,” confirms Tracy Daniels, CDO at Truist, a US
03
SUSTAINABILITY:
PREPARING FOR THE
FUTURE
organizations must address PERCENTAGE OF BUSINESS LEADERS WHO SAY THAT CLIMATE CHANGE WILL CAUSE THE
MAJORITY OF OPERATIONAL DISRUPTIONS IN THE NEXT DECADE, GROUPED BY LOCATION OF
ORGANIZATIONAL HEADQUARTERS
Close to half (48%) of business leaders believe that climate
change will cause the majority of operational disruptions in
Global 48%
the coming decade (see Figure 9). Already, droughts linked
Sweden 59%
to climate change have brought water levels to record lows
along major transportation routes such as the Panama Canal, Germany 55%
the Rhine and Danube rivers in Europe, and the Mississippi US 54%
river in the US, causing significant logistical issues.31 Business Japan 53%
leaders expect such impacts to intensify. Italy 51%
UK 51%
Spain 50%
%
48
France 49%
Netherlands 49%
Canada 45%
Australia 43%
China 40%
of business leaders say that climate change India 37%
will cause the majority of operational Brazil 35%
disruptions in the next decade 33%
Singapore
Source: Capgemini Research Institute, Global Investment Research Edition 2, November 2023, N=2,000 business leaders.
%
61
of business leaders say that the lack of
sustainable practices and processes will
pose a long-term existential risk for their
organizations
of business leaders say that their organization of business leaders say that their organization
will increase investment in clean tech in the will increase investment in clean tech in the
US in the next 2–3 years due to the IRA. EU in the next 2–3 years due to the Green
Deal Industrial Plan.
Source: Capgemini Research Institute, Global Investment Research Edition 2, November 2023, N=1,600 business leaders excluding
respondents from the banking and capital markets, and insurance sectors.
%
66
Thirty-eight percent believe that organizations are likely
to enter an era of no growth due to the need for humanity
to stay within planetary boundaries. The “Beyond Growth”
conference hosted by the European Parliament from
15–17 May 2023 aimed to spark thinking about alternative
economic models that prioritize sustainability and well- of business leaders say that the
being over perpetual growth.34 In line with this, our relentless pursuit of growth is
research indicates that business leaders are increasingly incompatible with addressing the
contemplating and engaging with the idea of climate and ecological crisis
a post-growth future.
04
NEARSHORING AND
FRIEND-SHORING:
TACKLING SUPPLY CHAIN
VULNERABILITIES
Capgemini Research Institute 2024
31
JAMES ROWAN
CEO, President, and
Director of Volvo Cars
Source: Capgemini Research Institute, Global Investment Research Edition 2, November 2023, N=1,304 business leaders from
organizations with supply chain networks, excluding organizations from China.
The technology decoupling of China and the US has led to the • Regulations for sovereign manufacturing: Europe’s share of the semiconductor market from 10%
restriction of technology exports and sensitive technologies Governments feel that areas of national strategic to 20% by 2030. Further, the US is leading the imposition
in the areas of semiconductors and AI. This has led 42% of importance, such as semiconductors, electric batteries, of export controls on semiconductor manufacturing
our surveyed executives to re-evaluate their technology AI, and pharmaceuticals justify the development of equipment40 to counter the national security threat from
investments. sovereign manufacturing capacity. A good example of this China. More than half (54%) of business leaders believe
is the European Chips Act38 (ECA) and the US’s CHIPS and that this trend of sovereign manufacturing will continue
Along with the search for an alternative to China, there
Science Act,39 which encourage localized semiconductor to grow, with respondents in Germany and Spain agreeing
has been significant government influence on supply chain
production in order to enhance supply chain resilience for the most.
decisions, specifically in terms of “de-risking” strategies.37
national security reasons. The ECA is intended to double
This phenomenon has three important aspects:
Retail 41%
Source: Capgemini Research Institute, Global Investment Research Edition 2, November 2023, N=1,407 business leaders from
organizations with supply chain networks..
The adoption and advancement of technology and sustainability capacity. Today, with the need for resilience and adapting
to the trends of nearshoring and friend-shoring, supply
automation can make nearshoring a cost-effective chain leaders need to adopt more holistic strategic thinking.
strategy. A centralized technology team should ensure Building new supply chains and manufacturing footprint is Broader geopolitical, economic, and consumer concerns
that all localized production sites leverage technology and a rare event in any organization or industry. Organization along with sustainability must be prioritized along with cost
automation as a global standard. It is essential to reduce the should leverage this opportunity to build their new supply and availability. Supply chain leaders need to have globalized
cost of technology adoption and leverage global expertise chains with visibility, transparency, and sustainability from thinking while addressing localized requirements, along with
to address challenges among distributed production sites. the outset. Key issues such as building reverse logistics for a collaboration and adaptability.
Further, nearshoring requires strong demand planning and circular economy or monitoring carbon footprint need to be
inventory management capabilities to ensure that localized emphasized. This will enable organizations to cover risk from
production can address long-term or seasonal variations in sustainability regulations while enabling them to monitor and
control Scope 3 emissions, a critical area of concern.
Conclusion
Our research shows that growing optimism is likely to spur an It is key to note that the three key investment trends examined
increase in organizations’ investments in 2024. Technology is a in the report – the growing prominence of AI and generative AI;
top investment priority for organizations, with AI and generative the focus on sustainability; and the pivot towards nearshoring
AI at the top of the list. At the same time, there is consensus on and friend-shoring of manufacturing and supply chains – are
the importance of nurturing human judgment to co-ordinate interlinked. For instance, AI and generative AI can positively impact
and supervise an AI-driven world. Moreover, there is widespread supply chains (e.g., by helping with transportation optimization,
acceptance of the crucial role played by regulation in ensuring warehouse management, supply and demand planning, and supply
that the benefits of AI can be realized in an ethical and socially chain troubleshooting) and help address sustainability goals (e.g.,
responsible manner. The need to establish guardrails and develop by enabling the rapid generation of novel ideas and concepts
a balanced, human-centric approach to AI adoption is crucial, as such as 3D structures of new carbon-neutral materials). At the
is the need to mitigate the environmental impact of adoption. same time, given the carbon-intensive nature of large language
Sustainability has also emerged as a priority for organizations models, the environmental impact of generative AI needs to be
for 2024. Climate change is viewed as a probable leading cause factored into organizations’ sustainability performance. Similarly,
of operational disruptions in the future and a threat to the sustainability impacts need to be accounted for when designing
long-term viability of organizations. Further, organizations are supply chains for resilience. It is crucial that organizations consider
acting to protect themselves against supply chain vulnerabilities. these linkages to future-proof their business and operating
Nearshoring and friend-shoring of sourcing and production are models.
also priorities going forward, prompted by shifts in industrial
policy and ESG regulation. Redesigning supply chains for long-term
resilience and harnessing technology to enable more cost-effective
nearshoring and friend-shoring will be vital.
3% 9%
5%
We carried out extensive research in an effort to understand the global economic climate and
its impact on the investment landscape. 6%
9%
For this study, 2,000 respondents from firms with more than $1 billion in annual revenue 6%
across 9 industries and 15 countries were surveyed. The respondents were at director level or
above, spanning various functional areas, including general management, finance and risk, IT/ 9%
technology, supply chain, sustainability, operations, and human resources. The executives who 6%
participated in the survey were responsible for/highly aware of their organization's investment
plans and priorities. The distribution of respondents and their organizations is provided in the
6%
following figures. 9%
The study findings reflect the views of respondents to our online questionnaire for this research 6%
and are aimed at providing directional guidance. Please contact one of the Capgemini experts
listed at the end of the report to understand specific implications. 7%
6%
6% 7%
US Japan Spain
UK Netherlands India
France Italy Australia
Germany Canada Sweden
China Brazil Singapore
10% 4%
15%
12%
10%
31%
15%
10%
18%
10% 10%
10% 10%
35%
Automotive Telecom, media, and high-tech
Banking and capital markets Life sciences and healthcare USD 1–5 billion USD 20–50 billion
Insurance USD 5–10 billion More than USD 50 billion
Consumer products
Retail manufacturing
USD 10–20 billion
Energy and utilities Industrial manufacturing
Source: Capgemini Research Institute, Global Investment Source: Capgemini Research Institute, Global Investment
Research Edition 2, November 2023, N=2,000 business leaders. Research Edition 2, November 2023, N=2,000 business leaders.
3% 5%
5%
14%
27%
10%
40%
10%
16%
10%
22%
18%
20%
Source: Capgemini Research Institute, Global Investment Source: Capgemini Research Institute, Global Investment
Research Edition 2, November 2023, N=2,000 business leaders. Research Edition 2, November 2023, N=2,000 business leaders..
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Key contributors
Steve Jones Vincent Charpiot Elisa Farri
Executive Vice President, Data Driven Executive Vice President Vice President and Co-lead of
Business, Capgemini Head of Group Sustainability Business Capgemini Invent’s Management Lab
[email protected] Accelerator, Capgemini [email protected]
[email protected]
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to take a customer-centric focus
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