Real Insights

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 Should I Buy Should I Buy
HDB Private

Major Events and

the Property Market Outlook
Market
Private Market When is the Right What is the Right
Overview Time to Buy Price to Buy

Increase in Should I Buy

Should I Buy New
Buyer’s Stamp Freehold or
or Resale
Duty Leasehold
 Economy and Interest Rates and War and Property
Property Market Property Market Market

Cooling Measures Stress Test

Inflation and
and Property Interest Rate and
Property Market
Market Loan
HDB Market Overview
 HDB resale prices up 3.8% in 9M 2023
185 Period Change From 2H 2024, new BTO
2021 +14.6% flats in the Central Region
175 will be Plus and Prime and
2022 +10.4%
come with restrictions on
165 Since CB +35.3% resale
Since 2Q 2019 +36.5% Cooling
Measures
Demand shifted to the
Index

155
Since last peak (2Q 2013) +19.5%
existing resale flats in
145
mature estates where there
are no restrictions on resale
135
The willingness to pay more
for existing flats with no
125
restrictions may have

4Q 2022
1Q 2023
2Q 2023
3Q 2023
1Q 2016
2Q 2016
3Q 2016
4Q 2016
1Q 2017
2Q 2017
3Q 2017
4Q 2017
1Q 2018
2Q 2018
3Q 2018
4Q 2018
1Q 2019
2Q 2019
3Q 2019
4Q 2019
1Q 2020
2Q 2020
3Q 2020
4Q 2020
1Q 2021
2Q 2021
3Q 2021
4Q 2021
1Q 2022
2Q 2022
3Q 2022
contributed to the increase
HDB Resale Price Index
in HDB resale prices by
1.3% in 3Q 2023

Source: HDB, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Prices of HDB resale flats show slight uptick
$700,000 +1.9% +2.1% -1.2% +1.3% +0.0% +0.7% 17 out of 26 HDB towns
saw price gains in 2Q 2023
$600,000 compared to the previous
quarter where 21 towns
$500,000 had price increases
Average Price

$400,000
Resale flats in Bukit Timah
had the biggest increase of
$300,000
38.1%, followed by
Serangoon 10.8% and
$200,000
Bishan 7.2%
$100,000
The higher for longer
interest rate is capping
$0
Woodlands Yishun Tampines Punggol Sengkang Islandwide
price increases for HDB
resale flats
2Q 2023 3Q 2023

Source: HDB, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 HDB price gains taking longer
200.0 36.5% in 4 years Gains in HDB resale flats
180.0 prices have been slowing
104.1% in 8 years down and owners are
160.0
taking a longer time to see
140.0 substantial price gains
HDB Resale Price Index

120.0 307.4% in 6 years

1st Cycle (1990 to 1996)
100.0
+307.4% in 6 years
80.0

60.0
2nd Cycle (2005 to 2013)
+104.1% in 8 years
40.0

20.0 3rd Cycle (2019 to 3Q 2023)

+36.5% in 4 years
0.0
1991

1995
1990

1992
1993
1994

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
9M 2023
Source: HDB, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 HDB momentum stabilising around 6,500
9,000 Repeated delays to the
8,000
Build-to-Order launch and
7,546
6,934
6,979 6,695
news on potential changes
6,819
7,000
6,336 6,514
to housing policies created
6,000
uncertainties for sellers and
buyers of HDB resale flats in
5,000 3Q 2023
Flats

4,000
Some buyers decided to sit
3,000 on the fence awaiting more
clarity in the market before
2,000
committing. There were
1,000 some buyers who erred on
the side of caution in view
0
of the economic
2Q 2016

1Q 2019
3Q 2016
4Q 2016
1Q 2017
2Q 2017
3Q 2017
4Q 2017
1Q 2018
2Q 2018
3Q 2018
4Q 2018

2Q 2019
3Q 2019
4Q 2019
1Q 2020
2Q 2020
3Q 2020
4Q 2020
1Q 2021
2Q 2021
3Q 2021
4Q 2021
1Q 2022
2Q 2022
3Q 2022
4Q 2022
1Q 2023
2Q 2023
3Q 2023
uncertainties and high for
longer interest rates

Source: HDB, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Million dollar flats might exceed 400 in 2023
400 The cooling measures on
369
private property owners did
350 336
not appear to have reduced
the number of million
300
dollar flat transaction
259
250
Based on caveats
downloaded, there were
Flats

200
336 such transactions
150 which make up an
estimated 1.7% of total
100 82 transaction volume in 9M
72
64 2023
46
50

0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 9M 2023

Source: HDB, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 25% of million dollar flats are 4-room and smaller
250 However the 15-month
time bar may have resulted
in a shift in buying demand
200
to smaller flats

150
Prices of resale executive
flats are lower than the 4-
Flats

and 5-room flats despite

100 their larger sizes

It could be due to the resale

50 executive flats being further
from transportation nodes,
age and unique attributes
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 9M 2023
of 4- and 5-room flats such
as DBSS
3-room 4-room 5-room Executive

Source: HDB, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 $1 to $1.1 million is the norm for million-dollar flats
80
More than half of the
million-dollar flats
70
transactions were in the
60
price range of $1 to $1.1
million in 3Q 2023
50

However, with more

40 demand for resale flats in
mature estates without the
30
PLH restrictions, the
number of transactions
20
above $1.1 million appears
10
to be trending up

0
1Q 2022 2Q 2022 3Q 2022 4Q 2022 1Q 2023 2Q 2023 3Q 2023

$1 to $1.1 million >$1.1 to $1.2 million >$1.2 to $1.3 million >$1.3 to $1.4 million >$1.4 million

Source: HDB, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Demand shifted to mature estates in 3Q 2023
HDB Town 1Q 2023 2Q 2023 3Q 2023 Total Demand appears to be
Bukit Batok 2 2 shifting to mature estates
Bukit Panjang 1 1
Hougang 1 3 4 new BTO flats in the Central
Jurong East 2 1 2 5 Region will be Plus and
Punggol 1 1 2 Prime and come with
Woodlands 5 2 4 12 restrictions on resale
Yishun 2 2 4
Total (Non-mature) 11 7 11 29 Demand shifted to the
Total (Mature) 92 98 117 307 existing resale flats in
mature estates where there
are no restrictions on resale

Source: HDB, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 HDB is increasing BTO supply
HDB Target
30,000 Annual Avg ~100,000 flats 200 It is worth noting that when
25,044 flats
180 HDB increase the BTO
25,000
Annual Avg 23,184 23,000 160
supply from 2011 to 2014,
16,288 flats HDB resale prices started to
140
ease from 2013 to 2019

HDB Resale Price Index

20,000
17,109 120

We may see this cycle

Flats

15,000 100

80
repeated as they ramp up
10,000 BTO supply by 100,000 flats
60
from 2021 to 2025
40
5,000
20

0 0

2023 (F)

2024 (F)

2025 (F)
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022
BTO Flats HDB Resale Price Index

Source: HDB, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 HDB Resale Price Index

100
120
140
180
200

160

0
20
40
60
80
1Q 2009

100
3Q 2009
1Q 2010
3Q 2010
1Q 2011
3Q 2011
1Q 2012
3Q 2012
1Q 2013
3Q 2013
1Q 2014
3Q 2014
1Q 2015
3Q 2015
1Q 2016
3Q 2016
1Q 2017

Source: HDB, URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023)
3Q 2017
+78.5%

1Q 2018
3Q 2018
2009 to 9M 2023

1Q 2019
3Q 2019
1Q 2020
3Q 2020
1Q 2021
3Q 2021
1Q 2022
3Q 2022
1Q 2023
3Q 2023
178.5

URA Non-Landed Price Index (OCR)

100
150
250

200

0
50

1Q 2009
100

3Q 2009
1Q 2010
3Q 2010
1Q 2011
3Q 2011
Private home prices outpaced HDB prices

1Q 2012
3Q 2012
1Q 2013
3Q 2013
1Q 2014
3Q 2014
1Q 2015
3Q 2015
1Q 2016
3Q 2016
1Q 2017
3Q 2017
1Q 2018
+137.4%

3Q 2018
1Q 2019
2009 to 9M 2023

3Q 2019
1Q 2020
3Q 2020
1Q 2021
3Q 2021
1Q 2022
3Q 2022
1Q 2023
3Q 2023
237.4

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

 Why waiting for the best price is not a strategy

4-room (3Q 2023) OCR (3Q 2023) GAP

$590,000 $1,495,000 $905,000

GAP
$29,500 (5%) $74,750 (5%)
$45,250

4-room (3Q 2024) OCR (3Q 2024) GAP

$619,500 $1,569,750 $950,250

The gap between HDB and private property prices will only get wider

* New and resale prices

Source: HDB, URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Pros and Cons of Different Housing Options
PLH Flat BTO Flat HDB Resale Flat Executive Condominium Private Non-landed Home

Minimum Occupation Period 10 years 5 years 5 years 5 years None

Eligibility to buy Family nucleus with at least 1 Family nucleus or Single with Family nucleus or Single with Family nucleus with at least 1 Open to all
SG at least 1 SG at least 1 SG SG or Joint Singles (All SG)
Income Ceiling (Buy from $14,000 per month $14,000 per month NA $16,000 per month None
HDB)
Income Ceiling (Buy from $14,000 per month None None None None
resale)
Rental Options Can only rent out room(s) Can rent out whole flat after Can rent out whole flat after Can rent out whole flat after No restrictions
after MOP MOP MOP MOP
Private Property Ownership Must not own or have an Must not own or have an Allowed, but must dispose of Must not own or have an Allowed
interest in a private or interest in a private or private or overseas property interest in a private or
overseas property and have overseas property and have within six months of buying overseas property and have
not disposed of any in the not disposed of any in the the resale flat. not disposed of any in the
last 30 months last 30 months last 30 months
Govt. Housing Grants Yes (Depends on income) Yes (Depends on income) Yes (Depends on income) Yes (Depends on income) NA

Govt. Additional Subsidy Yes No No No NA

Resale Levy Payable (Depends) Payable (Depends) NA Payable (Depends) NA

Clawback Subsidy upon Sale Yes (Depends on initial No No No NA

additional subsidy)
Waiting Period before After 15 years (5 years After 10 years (5 years After 5 years (MOP) After 9 years (4 years Anytime
Allowed to Invest in Private construction + 10 years MOP) construction + 5 years MOP) construction + 5 years MOP)
Properties
Source: HDB, URA, Huttons Data Analytics Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Opportunity costs of buying a HDB flat
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16
Investors are able to cash
PLH Flats out from their condo
Construction Period Minimum Occupation Period (MOP)
(Locals/PRs investment after the SSD
Only)
period
New HDB
Construction Period Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) (Locals/PRs Only) Buyers of HDB have to wait
till the fulfilment of 5-year
Resale HDB
Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) (Locals/PRs Only)
MOP before they can sell
Executive
Condominium PLH flats will have to wait
(EC)
Construction Period Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) (Locals/PRs Only) (Locals/PRs + Foreigners) for 10 years before they can
Private
sell
Condominium
SSD – SSD – SSD –
(Locals + Foreigners)
12% 8% 4%
Construction Period
There may be lost
opportunities during this
• Do you want to wait up to 16 years? time
• Do you want to limit your future target market?
• Do you want the flexibility to capitalise on market cycle opportunities?
Source: HDB, URA, Huttons Data Analytics Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Income, Age and Max HDB Resale Price (75% loan)
Income <=35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
/ IWAA
$7,000 $586,000 $576,000 $565,000 $554,000 $542,000 $530,000 $517,000 $504,000 $491,000 $476,000
$7,500 $628,000 $617,000 $605,000 $593,000 $581,000 $568,000 $554,000 $540,000 $526,000 $510,000
$8,000 $670,000 $658,000 $646,000 $633,000 $620,000 $606,000 $591,000 $576,000 $561,000 $544,000
$8,500 $712,000 $699,000 $686,000 $672,000 $658,000 $644,000 $628,000 $612,000 $596,000 $579,000
$9,000 $754,000 $740,000 $726,000 $712,000 $697,000 $682,000 $665,000 $648,000 $631,000 $613,000
$9,500 $795,000 $781,000 $767,000 $752,000 $736,000 $719,000 $702,000 $684,000 $666,000 $647,000
$10,000 $837,000 $823,000 $807,000 $791,000 $775,000 $757,000 $739,000 $721,000 $701,000 $681,000
$10,500 $879,000 $864,000 $848,000 $831,000 $813,000 $795,000 $776,000 $757,000 $736,000 $715,000
$11,000 $921,000 $905,000 $888,000 $870,000 $852,000 $833,000 $813,000 $793,000 $771,000 $749,000
$11,500 $963,000 $946,000 $928,000 $910,000 $891,000 $871,000 $850,000 $829,000 $806,000 $783,000
$12,000 $1,005,000 $987,000 $969,000 $950,000 $930,000 $909,000 $887,000 $865,000 $841,000 $817,000
$12,500 $1,047,000 $1,028,000 $1,009,000 $989,000 $968,000 $947,000 $924,000 $901,000 $876,000 $851,000
$13,000 $1,089,000 $1,070,000 $1,050,000 $1,029,000 $1,007,000 $985,000 $961,000 $937,000 $911,000 $885,000
$13,500 $1,131,000 $1,111,000 $1,090,000 $1,068,000 $1,046,000 $1,023,000 $998,000 $973,000 $947,000 $919,000
$14,000 $1,172,000 $1,152,000 $1,130,000 $1,108,000 $1,085,000 $1,060,000 $1,035,000 $1,009,000 $982,000 $953,000
Assumptions:
- No car loan, no other debts, no variable bonuses or AWS, MAS regulation of 4% interest and max loan tenure not exceeding age of 65
- Rounded down to nearest thousand
Source: Huttons Data Analytics Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Income, Age and Max HDB Resale Price (75% loan)
Income 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54
/ IWAA
$7,000 $462,000 $446,000 $430,000 $413,000 $396,000 $378,000 $359,000 $340,000 $319,000 $298,000
$7,500 $495,000 $478,000 $461,000 $443,000 $424,000 $405,000 $385,000 $364,000 $342,000 $319,000
$8,000 $528,000 $510,000 $492,000 $473,000 $453,000 $432,000 $411,000 $388,000 $365,000 $341,000
$8,500 $561,000 $542,000 $522,000 $502,000 $481,000 $459,000 $436,000 $413,000 $388,000 $362,000
$9,000 $594,000 $574,000 $553,000 $532,000 $509,000 $486,000 $462,000 $437,000 $411,000 $383,000
$9,500 $627,000 $606,000 $584,000 $561,000 $538,000 $513,000 $488,000 $461,000 $434,000 $405,000
$10,000 $660,000 $638,000 $615,000 $591,000 $566,000 $540,000 $513,000 $485,000 $456,000 $426,000
$10,500 $693,000 $669,000 $645,000 $620,000 $594,000 $567,000 $539,000 $510,000 $479,000 $447,000
$11,000 $726,000 $701,000 $676,000 $650,000 $623,000 $594,000 $565,000 $534,000 $502,000 $469,000
$11,500 $759,000 $733,000 $707,000 $680,000 $651,000 $621,000 $590,000 $558,000 $525,000 $490,000
$12,000 $792,000 $765,000 $738,000 $709,000 $679,000 $648,000 $616,000 $583,000 $548,000 $511,000
$12,500 $825,000 $797,000 $768,000 $739,000 $708,000 $675,000 $642,000 $607,000 $571,000 $533,000
$13,000 $858,000 $829,000 $799,000 $768,000 $736,000 $702,000 $668,000 $631,000 $593,000 $554,000
$13,500 $891,000 $861,000 $830,000 $798,000 $764,000 $730,000 $693,000 $656,000 $616,000 $575,000
$14,000 $924,000 $893,000 $861,000 $827,000 $793,000 $757,000 $719,000 $680,000 $639,000 $597,000
Assumptions:
- No car loan, no other debts, no variable bonuses or AWS, MAS regulation of 4% interest and max loan tenure not exceeding age of 65
- Rounded down to nearest thousand
Source: Huttons Data Analytics Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
Private Market Overview
 May 1996: Sep 2009 – Jun 2013: Jul 2018: Dec 2021 – Apr 2023:
Anti-speculation 8 sets of cooling Cooling 3 sets of cooling
250 measures measures measures measures 45,000
10 Qtrs 6 Qtrs 15 Qtrs 17 Qtrs 4 Qtrs 17 Qtrs 15 Qtrs 25 Qtrs
40,000
-44.9% +40.4% -20% +58% -24.9% +62.2% -11.6% +43.5%
200 35,000
URA All Property Price Index

30,000
150
25,000

Units
20,000
100
15,000

50 10,000

5,000

0 0

9M 2023
2001

2012
1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022
1997-1998: 2001: 911 2008-2009: 2016: 2017: 2020-2022:
Asia 2001-2003: Global Brexit US COVID-19
Financial Dotcom bust Financial China
Crisis 2003: SARS, Iraq Crisis Trade
War War
New Sale Resale Subsale URA All Property Price Index

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
Business Times, 28 Apr 2023

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Prices up 3.9% in 9M 2023
200 Period Change The property market
Before After
2021 +10.6% returned to growth in 3Q
190 +9.6% +30.9% 2023 backed by strong sales
2022 +8.6%
in project launches
URA All Property Price Index

180
Since CB +28.4%
Cooling Cooling Measures
170 Since 6 July 2018 +30.9% Measures Property prices grew by
0.8% quarter-on-quarter
Since 2Q 2017 +43.5%
160 (QoQ) in 3Q 2023 and 3.9%
year-on-year (YoY)
150
Compared to the last peak
140 in 3Q 2013, property prices
are 26.8% higher
130
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
2017Q2

2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3

2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
2021Q1
2021Q2
2021Q3
2021Q4
2022Q1
2022Q2
2022Q3
2022Q4
2023Q1
2023Q2
2023Q3
2017Q3

2018Q4

Period

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Comparison of CCR, RCR and OCR prices
260 Generally properties in
237.4 different regions have seen
240
increase in prices
Non-landed Property Price Index

220 213
Prices in the Core Central
200 Region (CCR) have
increased by 12.6% while
180 those in the Outside Central
Region (OCR) have
160 154.2 increased by 54%
142.5
136.8
140
126.5
The Rest of Central Region
(RCR) have seen a larger
120
increase of 55.7%
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
2021Q1
2021Q2
2021Q3
2021Q4
2022Q1
2022Q2
2022Q3

2023Q1
2023Q2
2023Q3
2017Q1

2022Q4
compared to other regions
CCR RCR OCR

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Comparison of CCR, RCR and OCR prices
$3,300 Prices in the RCR and OCR
$3,099
$3,100 has seen a bigger increase
than CCR
$2,900 $2,787 $601

$2,700 This has narrowed the price

Average Price ($ psf)

$675
$2,498 gap and present an
$2,500
opportunity to trade up to a
$2,300 $452 CCR home
$2,112
$2,100

$398 $2,046
$1,900

$1,700
$1,714
$1,500
Jan-22

Jan-23
Apr-22

Nov-22

Apr-23
Feb-22

Mar-22

Sep-22

Feb-23

Mar-23

Sep-23
Jul-22

Aug-22

Jul-23

Aug-23
May-22

Dec-22

May-23
Jun-22

Oct-22

Jun-23
CCR RCR OCR

* New home prices

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Demand for resale homes hurt by high interest rates
6,000 The current interest rate is
likely to remain high for a
5,000
longer period of time

This led to a slight dip in

4,000 prices of 0.6% in the resale
market
Units

3,000
Transaction volume in 3Q
2023 is 2.6% lower than the
2,000 previous quarter as price
sensitive buyers are priced
1,000
out

0
1Q 2021 2Q 2021 3Q 2021 4Q 2021 1Q 2022 2Q 2022 3Q 2022 4Q 2022 1Q 2023 2Q 2023 3Q 2023

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
Business Times, 16 Aug 2023

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

Straits Times, 16 Sep 2023

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

Business Times, 17 Oct 2023

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

 Largest launch volume of 2,805 units in 3Q 2023
4,000 A total of 2,805 units across
3,500
nine projects were
launched for sale in 3Q
3,000 2023
2,500
This is the largest launch by
Units

2,000 units in a quarter since 1Q

2021
1,500

1,000 Developers sold a total of

1,946 units in 3Q 2023
500 which is slightly lower than
0
the previous quarter
3Q 2017

2Q 2019

1Q 2021
1Q 2017
2Q 2017

4Q 2017
1Q 2018
2Q 2018
3Q 2018
4Q 2018
1Q 2019

3Q 2019
4Q 2019
1Q 2020
2Q 2020
3Q 2020
4Q 2020

2Q 2021
3Q 2021
4Q 2021
1Q 2022
2Q 2022
3Q 2022
4Q 2022
1Q 2023
2Q 2023
3Q 2023
Launch Sold

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Years needed to boost supply up to 27,767 units
45,000 The ten-year average
40,000
unsold units in the market
was 27,767
35,000
Average unsold units (2012-2021)
27,767 units
As of 3Q 2023, the unsold
30,000
units was 17,161
25,000 Gap of
Units

~10,000 If 27,767 units is the

20,000 units
17161 equilibrium state for stable
15,000 prices, there is a gap of
around 10,000 units
10,000

5,000 It will likely take years to

close the gap of ~10,000
0 units
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
2021Q1
2021Q2
2021Q3
2021Q4
2022Q1
2022Q2
2022Q3
2022Q4
2023Q1
2023Q2
2023Q3
2012Q1

2016Q4

2019Q1

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
More land sales needed to boost supply

Unsold units = New supply - Units sold

2,000 = 10,000 - 8,000

There is only 1 way to increase supply into the market

Sell more land

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

 Est 4 years needed to boost supply up
GLS En-Bloc Total New Supply (A) New Sales (B) Nett (A-B)
2016 3,095 2,413 5,508 2017 5,508 10,566 -5,058
2017 4,355 13,980 18,335 2018 18,335 8,795 9,540
2018 4,335 9,384 13,719 2019 13,719 9,912 3,807
2019 2,875 155 3,030 2020 3,030 9,982 -6,952
2020 1,930 353 2,283 2021 2,283 13,027 -10,744
2021 2,640 2,500 5,140 2022 5,140 7,099 -1,959
2022 5,300 2,428 7,728 Total 48,015 59,381 -11,366 GAP

The GAP can only be closed if there is more New Supply than New Sales every year
The GAP can only be closed in 2 years if New Supply exceeds New Sales by 5,700 units every year
The GAP can only be closed in 3 years if New Supply exceeds New Sales by 3,800 units every year
The GAP can only be closed in 4 years if New Supply exceeds New Sales by 2,900 units every year
Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Private rents likely to flatten in 4Q 2023
25,000 170 More newly completed
160
condos are entering the
20,000 market in 2023 thereby
Average new supply (2012-2017) 150 intensifying the
15,921 units
competition for tenants
140
15,000

Rental Index
Units

130 Against a backdrop of

10,000 slowing employment
120
growth and more tenants
110 relocating overseas to work
5,000
remotely, condo rents are
100
likely to come under
0 90 pressure in 2023

2023 (F)

2024 (F)

2025 (F)

2026 (F)
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

>2026 (F)
Supply of Completed Homes URA Rental Index (All Property)

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
When is the Right Time to Buy
5 steps to decide when to enter and exit

1. Level of unsold stock currently

2. Upcoming supply in next few years

3. Level of completion in coming years

4. % of units sold in a project

5. Age

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

 1. Lower risk of price adjustment due to low unsold supply
45,000 The current low unsold
40,000
supply in the market means
that there is lower risk of
35,000 developers reducing prices
Average unsold units (2012-2021)
27,767 units
to sell
30,000

25,000 Gap of The low unsold supply also

Units

~10,000 means developers have the

20,000 units
17,161 ability to increase prices
15,000
The low unsold supply is
10,000
likely to stay low for a few
5,000 years

0
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
2021Q1
2021Q2
2021Q3
2021Q4
2022Q1
2022Q2
2022Q3
2022Q4
2023Q1
2023Q2
2023Q3
2012Q1

2016Q4

2019Q1

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Est 4 years needed to boost supply up
GLS En-Bloc Total New Supply (A) New Sales (B) Nett (A-B)
2016 3,095 2,413 5,508 2017 5,508 10,566 -5,058
2017 4,355 13,980 18,335 2018 18,335 8,795 9,540
2018 4,335 9,384 13,719 2019 13,719 9,912 3,807
2019 2,875 155 3,030 2020 3,030 9,982 -6,952
2020 1,930 353 2,283 2021 2,283 13,027 -10,744
2021 2,640 2,500 5,140 2022 5,140 7,099 -1,959
2022 5,300 2,428 7,728 Total 48,015 59,381 -11,366 GAP

The GAP can only be closed if there is more New Supply than New Sales every year
The GAP can only be closed in 2 years if New Supply exceeds New Sales by 5,700 units every year
The GAP can only be closed in 3 years if New Supply exceeds New Sales by 3,800 units every year
The GAP can only be closed in 4 years if New Supply exceeds New Sales by 2,900 units every year
Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 2. Est >25,000 private and EC units in the pipeline
12,000 Normally the market will
see 9,000 to 10,000 units
10,000 512 launched per year

8,000
360
There will only be 7,539
1,055 units launched for sale in
Units

6,000 2023, much lesser than the

usual
9,518
4,000 7,539
6,430 This gives developers the
2,000
ability to increase prices

0
2023 (F)

2024 (F)

2025 (F)
Pte EC

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 3. Low supply completing in next few years
20,000 The low number of homes
18,000
completing in the next few
years means there is less
16,000 competition when you want
14,000
to exit your investment

12,000
Units

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0
2023 2024 2025 2026 >2026

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 3. Private rents may rise beyond 2024
25,000 160 The ten-year average new
completion of homes was
150
20,000 15,921 units
Average new supply (2012-2017)
15,921 units 140
There is a huge
15,000 undersupply of 52,702 new

Rental Index
130
Units

completed homes from

10,000
120 2018 to 2022
110
This acute undersupply of
5,000
100
private homes means that
landlords have the ability to
0 90 command better rents
compared to periods where

2023 (F)

2024 (F)

2025 (F)

2026 (F)
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

>2026 (F)
there are a lot of new
supply
Supply of Completed Homes URA Rental Index (All Property)

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 4. Martin Modern
$3,000 When sales in a project
TOP
approaches 50%,
developers are likely to
$2,800
increase prices
Average Price ($ psf)

$2,600 Buy before it reaches 50%

+17.9% +18.5%
When you buy early into a
$2,400 project, you stand to gain
from the price increases

$2,200

46.7% sold
$2,000

1Q 2021

4Q 2022
3Q 2017
4Q 2017
1Q 2018
2Q 2018
3Q 2018
4Q 2018
1Q 2019
2Q 2019
3Q 2019
4Q 2019
1Q 2020
2Q 2020
3Q 2020
4Q 2020

2Q 2021
3Q 2021
4Q 2021
1Q 2022
2Q 2022
3Q 2022

1Q 2023
2Q 2023
3Q 2023
Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 4. Martin Modern

Source: Squarefoot Research Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 4. JadeScape
$2,200 When sales in a project
TOP
approaches 50%,
developers are likely to
increase prices
$2,000 +20.1%
Buy before it reaches 50%
Average Price ($ psf)

When you buy early into a

project, you stand to gain
46.3% sold
$1,800 from the price increases

+7.1%

$1,600
3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 4. JadeScape

Source: Squarefoot Research Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 4. Parc Esta
$2,200 When sales in a project
TOP
approaches 50%,
developers are likely to
increase prices
+22.7%

$2,000 Buy before it reaches 50%

Average Price ($ psf)

+20.6% When you buy early into a

project, you stand to gain
43.4% sold from the price increases
$1,800

$1,600
4Q 2018 3Q 2019 2Q 2020 1Q 2021 4Q 2021 3Q 2022 2Q 2023

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 4. Parc Esta

Source: Squarefoot Research Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 4. Stirling Residences
$2,400 When sales in a project
TOP
approaches 50%,
developers are likely to
$2,200
increase prices

Buy before it reaches 50%

Average Price ($ psf)

+26.8%
$2,000
+21.9%
When you buy early into a
43.4% sold
project, you stand to gain
from the price increases
$1,800

$1,600
3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 4. Stirling Residences

Source: Squarefoot Research Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 5. Income, Age and Max Private Property Price (75% loan)
Income 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
/ IWAA
$7,000 $1,075,000 $1,056,000 $1,036,000 $1,016,000 $994,000 $972,000 $949,000 $925,000 $900,000 $874,000
$7,500 $1,152,000 $1,131,000 $1,110,000 $1,088,000 $1,065,000 $1,041,000 $1,017,000 $991,000 $964,000 $936,000
$8,000 $1,228,000 $1,207,000 $1,184,000 $1,161,000 $1,136,000 $1,111,000 $1,085,000 $1,057,000 $1,028,000 $999,000
$8,500 $1,305,000 $1,282,000 $1,258,000 $1,233,000 $1,207,000 $1,180,000 $1,152,000 $1,123,000 $1,093,000 $1,061,000
$9,000 $1,382,000 $1,358,000 $1,332,000 $1,306,000 $1,278,000 $1,250,000 $1,220,000 $1,189,000 $1,157,000 $1,124,000
$9,500 $1,459,000 $1,433,000 $1,406,000 $1,378,000 $1,350,000 $1,319,000 $1,288,000 $1,255,000 $1,221,000 $1,186,000
$10,000 $1,536,000 $1,508,000 $1,480,000 $1,451,000 $1,421,000 $1,389,000 $1,356,000 $1,321,000 $1,286,000 $1,248,000
$10,500 $1,612,000 $1,584,000 $1,554,000 $1,524,000 $1,492,000 $1,458,000 $1,424,000 $1,388,000 $1,350,000 $1,311,000
$11,000 $1,689,000 $1,659,000 $1,628,000 $1,596,000 $1,563,000 $1,528,000 $1,491,000 $1,454,000 $1,414,000 $1,373,000
$11,500 $1,766,000 $1,735,000 $1,702,000 $1,669,000 $1,634,000 $1,597,000 $1,559,000 $1,520,000 $1,479,000 $1,436,000
$12,000 $1,843,000 $1,810,000 $1,777,000 $1,741,000 $1,705,000 $1,667,000 $1,627,000 $1,586,000 $1,543,000 $1,498,000
$12,500 $1,920,000 $1,886,000 $1,851,000 $1,814,000 $1,776,000 $1,736,000 $1,695,000 $1,652,000 $1,607,000 $1,561,000
$13,000 $1,996,000 $1,961,000 $1,925,000 $1,887,000 $1,847,000 $1,806,000 $1,763,000 $1,718,000 $1,671,000 $1,623,000
$13,500 $2,073,000 $2,037,000 $1,999,000 $1,959,000 $1,918,000 $1,875,000 $1,830,000 $1,784,000 $1,736,000 $1,686,000
$14,000 $2,150,000 $2,112,000 $2,073,000 $2,032,000 $1,989,000 $1,945,000 $1,898,000 $1,850,000 $1,800,000 $1,748,000
Assumptions:
- No car loan, no other debts, no variable bonuses or AWS, MAS regulation of 4% interest and max loan tenure not exceeding age of 65
- Rounded down to nearest thousand
Source: Huttons Data Analytics Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 5. Income, Age and Max Private Property Price (75% loan)
Income 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
/ IWAA
$14,500 $2,227,000 $2,188,000 $2,147,000 $2,104,000 $2,060,000 $2,014,000 $1,966,000 $1,916,000 $1,864,000 $1,810,000
$15,000 $2,304,000 $2,263,000 $2,221,000 $2,177,000 $2,131,000 $2,083,000 $2,034,000 $1,982,000 $1,929,000 $1,873,000
$15,500 $2,380,000 $2,338,000 $2,295,000 $2,249,000 $2,202,000 $2,153,000 $2,102,000 $2,048,000 $1,993,000 $1,935,000
$16,000 $2,457,000 $2,414,000 $2,369,000 $2,322,000 $2,273,000 $2,222,000 $2,170,000 $2,115,000 $2,057,000 $1,998,000
$16,500 $2,534,000 $2,489,000 $2,443,000 $2,395,000 $2,344,000 $2,292,000 $2,237,000 $2,181,000 $2,122,000 $2,060,000
$17,000 $2,611,000 $2,565,000 $2,517,000 $2,467,000 $2,415,000 $2,361,000 $2,305,000 $2,247,000 $2,186,000 $2,123,000
$17,500 $2,688,000 $2,640,000 $2,591,000 $2,540,000 $2,486,000 $2,431,000 $2,373,000 $2,313,000 $2,250,000 $2,185,000
$18,000 $2,764,000 $2,716,000 $2,665,000 $2,612,000 $2,557,000 $2,500,000 $2,441,000 $2,379,000 $2,315,000 $2,248,000
$18,500 $2,841,000 $2,791,000 $2,739,000 $2,685,000 $2,628,000 $2,570,000 $2,509,000 $2,445,000 $2,379,000 $2,310,000
$19,000 $2,918,000 $2,867,000 $2,813,000 $2,757,000 $2,700,000 $2,639,000 $2,576,000 $2,511,000 $2,443,000 $2,372,000
$19,500 $2,995,000 $2,942,000 $2,887,000 $2,830,000 $2,771,000 $2,709,000 $2,644,000 $2,577,000 $2,507,000 $2,435,000
$20,000 $3,072,000 $3,017,000 $2,961,000 $2,903,000 $2,842,000 $2,778,000 $2,712,000 $2,643,000 $2,572,000 $2,497,000
$20,500 $3,148,000 $3,093,000 $3,035,000 $2,975,000 $2,913,000 $2,848,000 $2,780,000 $2,709,000 $2,636,000 $2,560,000
$21,000 $3,225,000 $3,168,000 $3,109,000 $3,048,000 $2,984,000 $2,917,000 $2,848,000 $2,776,000 $2,700,000 $2,622,000
$21,500 $3,302,000 $3,244,000 $3,183,000 $3,120,000 $3,055,000 $2,987,000 $2,916,000 $2,842,000 $2,765,000 $2,685,000
Assumptions:
- No car loan, no other debts, no variable bonuses or AWS, MAS regulation of 4% interest and max loan tenure not exceeding age of 65
- Rounded down to nearest thousand
Source: Huttons Data Analytics Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 5. Income, Age and Max Private Property Price (75% loan)
Income 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54
/ IWAA
$7,000 $847,000 $818,000 $789,000 $758,000 $727,000 $639,000 $659,000 $623,000 $586,000 $547,000
$7,500 $907,000 $877,000 $845,000 $813,000 $779,000 $743,000 $706,000 $668,000 $628,000 $586,000
$8,000 $968,000 $935,000 $902,000 $867,000 $830,000 $793,000 $753,000 $712,000 $670,000 $625,000
$8,500 $1,028,000 $994,000 $958,000 $921,000 $882,000 $842,000 $800,000 $757,000 $711,000 $664,000
$9,000 $1,089,000 $1,052,000 $1,015,000 $975,000 $934,000 $892,000 $847,000 $801,000 $753,000 $703,000
$9,500 $1,149,000 $1,111,000 $1,071,000 $1,029,000 $986,000 $941,000 $895,000 $846,000 $795,000 $742,000
$10,000 $1,210,000 $1,169,000 $1,127,000 $1,084,000 $1,038,000 $991,000 $942,000 $890,000 $837,000 $782,000
$10,500 $1,270,000 $1,228,000 $1,184,000 $1,138,000 $1,090,000 $1,040,000 $989,000 $935,000 $879,000 $821,000
$11,000 $1,331,000 $1,286,000 $1,240,000 $1,192,000 $1,142,000 $1,090,000 $1,036,000 $980,000 $921,000 $860,000
$11,500 $1,391,000 $1,345,000 $1,297,000 $1,246,000 $1,194,000 $1,140,000 $1,083,000 $1,024,000 $963,000 $899,000
$12,000 $1,452,000 $1,403,000 $1,353,000 $1,301,000 $1,246,000 $1,189,000 $1,130,000 $1,069,000 $1,005,000 $938,000
$12,500 $1,512,000 $1,462,000 $1,409,000 $1,355,000 $1,298,000 $1,239,000 $1,177,000 $1,113,000 $1,046,000 $977,000
$13,000 $1,573,000 $1,520,000 $1,466,000 $1,409,000 $1,350,000 $1,288,000 $1,224,000 $1,158,000 $1,088,000 $1,016,000
$13,500 $1,633,000 $1,579,000 $1,522,000 $1,463,000 $1,402,000 $1,338,000 $1,271,000 $1,202,000 $1,130,000 $1,055,000
$14,000 $1,694,000 $1,637,000 $1,579,000 $1,517,000 $1,454,000 $1,387,000 $1,319,000 $1,247,000 $1,172,000 $1,094,000
Assumptions:
- No car loan, no other debts, no variable bonuses or AWS, MAS regulation of 4% interest and max loan tenure not exceeding age of 65
- Rounded down to nearest thousand
Source: Huttons Data Analytics Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 5. Income, Age and Max Private Property Price (75% loan)
Income 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54
/ IWAA
$14,500 $1,754,000 $1,696,000 $1,635,000 $1,572,000 $1,506,000 $1,437,000 $1,366,000 $1,291,000 $1,214,000 $1,134,000
$15,000 $1,815,000 $1,754,000 $1,691,000 $1,626,000 $1,558,000 $1,487,000 $1,413,000 $1,336,000 $1,256,000 $1,173,000
$15,500 $1,875,000 $1,813,000 $1,748,000 $1,680,000 $1,610,000 $1,536,000 $1,460,000 $1,380,000 $1,298,000 $1,212,000
$16,000 $1,936,000 $1,871,000 $1,804,000 $1,734,000 $1,661,000 $1,586,000 $1,507,000 $1,425,000 $1,340,000 $1,251,000
$16,500 $1,996,000 $1,930,000 $1,860,000 $1,788,000 $1,713,000 $1,635,000 $1,554,000 $1,470,000 $1,382,000 $1,290,000
$17,000 $2,057,000 $1,988,000 $1,917,000 $1,843,000 $1,765,000 $1,685,000 $1,601,000 $1,514,000 $1,423,000 $1,329,000
$17,500 $2,117,000 $2,047,000 $1,973,000 $1,897,000 $1,817,000 $1,734,000 $1,648,000 $1,559,000 $1,465,000 $1,368,000
$18,000 $2,178,000 $2,105,000 $2,030,000 $1,951,000 $1,869,000 $1,784,000 $1,695,000 $1,603,000 $1,507,000 $1,407,000
$18,500 $2,238,000 $2,164,000 $2,086,000 $2,005,000 $1,921,000 $1,834,000 $1,743,000 $1,648,000 $1,549,000 $1,446,000
$19,000 $2,299,000 $2,222,000 $2,142,000 $2,059,000 $1,973,000 $1,883,000 $1,790,000 $1,692,000 $1,591,000 $1,485,000
$19,500 $2,359,000 $2,281,000 $2,199,000 $2,114,000 $2,025,000 $1,933,000 $1,837,000 $1,737,000 $1,633,000 $1,525,000
$20,000 $2,420,000 $2,339,000 $2,255,000 $2,168,000 $2,077,000 $1,982,000 $1,884,000 $1,781,000 $1,675,000 $1,564,000
$20,500 $2,480,000 $2,398,000 $2,312,000 $2,222,000 $2,129,000 $2,032,000 $1,931,000 $1,826,000 $1,717,000 $1,603,000
$21,000 $2,541,000 $2,456,000 $2,368,000 $2,276,000 $2,181,000 $2,081,000 $1,978,000 $1,870,000 $1,758,000 $1,642,000
$21,500 $2,601,000 $2,515,000 $2,424,000 $2,330,000 $2,233,000 $2,131,000 $2,025,000 $1,915,000 $1,800,000 $1,681,000
Assumptions:
- No car loan, no other debts, no variable bonuses or AWS, MAS regulation of 4% interest and max loan tenure not exceeding age of 65
- Rounded down to nearest thousand
Source: Huttons Data Analytics Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
Good time to enter the market
1. The current low unsold supply in the market means that there is lower risk of developers reducing prices to
sell and it gives developers the ability to increase prices.

The low unsold supply is likely to stay low for an estimated four years.

2. There will be an estimated 7,539 units launched for sale in 2023, below the norm of 9,000 to 10,000 units.
This gives developers the ability to increase prices.

3. The low number of homes completing in the next few years means there is less competition when you
want to exit your investment.

4. When sales in a project approaches 50%, developers are likely to increase prices so buy before it reaches
50%.

5. The longer you wait, the shorter the loan tenure and smaller loan amount

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

What is the Right Price to Buy
3 steps to decide entry price

1. Current prices supported by demand

2. Current sweet spot price

3. Future prices

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

 1. $2,000 psf for OCR projects is the norm
$2,500 These projects launched in
$2,237
2022 and 2023 have sold
$2,093 $2,078 $2,098 $2,073 $2,102 $2,074 $2,101
for around $2,000 psf on
$2,000
average
Median Price ($ psf)

$1,500 This shows that buyers have

accepted that $2,000 psf is
the norm for OCR projects
$1,000 moving forward

There is a good opportunity

$500 to look at projects launched
before 2022
$0
AMO Sky Lentor Sceneca The Botany at Lentor Hills The Myst The
Residence Eden@Bedok Modern Residence Dairy Farm Residences Lakegarden
Residences

* Transactions in 2023
Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 1. $2,400 psf for RCR projects is the norm
$3,000 These projects launched in
$2,662 2022 and 2023 have sold
$2,490 $2,536
$2,474 $2,473 $2,439 for around $2,400 psf on
$2,500 $2,371
average
$2,040
$2,000
This shows that buyers have
Average Price ($ psf)

accepted that $2,400 psf is

$1,500 the norm for RCR projects
moving forward
$1,000
There is a good opportunity
to look at projects launched
$500 before 2022

$0
Piccadilly LIV @ MB Tembusu Terra Hill Blossoms by The Reserve Pinetree Hill Grand
Grand Grand the Park Residences Dunman

* Transactions in 2023
Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 1. $2,900 psf for CCR projects is the norm
$6,000 These projects launched in
$5,323
2021 have sold for around
$5,000 $3,000 psf on average
$3,855
Average Price ($ psf)

$4,000 $3,606 This shows that buyers have

$3,258
$3,006 $3,017 $2,916
accepted that $3,000 psf is
$3,000 $2,865
$2,686
$2,499
$2,643 the norm for CCR projects
moving forward
$2,000

There is a good opportunity

$1,000
to look at projects launched
before 2022
$0

* Transactions in 2023
Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 2. Sweet spot pricing
$3,300 Prices in the RCR and OCR
$3,099
$3,100 has seen a bigger increase
than CCR
$2,900 $2,787 $601

$2,700 This has narrowed the price

Average Price ($ psf)

$675
$2,498 gap and present an
$2,500
opportunity to trade up to a
$2,300 $452 CCR home
$2,112
$2,100

$398 $2,046
$1,900

$1,700
$1,714
$1,500
Jan-22

Jan-23
Apr-22

Nov-22

Apr-23
Feb-22

Mar-22

Sep-22

Feb-23

Mar-23

Sep-23
Jul-22

Aug-22

Jul-23

Aug-23
May-22

Dec-22

May-23
Jun-22

Oct-22

Jun-23
CCR RCR OCR

* New home prices

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
3. Construction costs are trending upwards
2019 2023

OCR $300 psf OCR $450 psf 50%

RCR $450 psf RCR $650 psf 44%

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

Straits Times, 21 Feb 2023
3. GST has biggest impact on construction costs

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

(0.06%)
(0.12%)
(0.17%)
(0.21%)
(0.25%)
(0.50%)
(1.10%)
(1.55%)
 3. Increase in BSD has biggest impact on land costs
On or Before On or After Difference in Percentage
Land Price 14 Feb 2023 15 Feb 2023 Amount Difference
$20,000,000 $784,600 $1,139,600 $355,000 45.2%
$30,000,000 $1,184,600 $1,739,600 $555,000 46.9%
$40,000,000 $1,584,600 $2,339,600 $755,000 47.6%
$50,000,000 $1,984,600 $2,939,600 $955,000 48.1%
$100,000,000 $3,984,600 $5,939,600 $1,955,000 49.1%
$200,000,000 $7,984,600 $11,939,600 $3,955,000 49.5%
$300,000,000 $11,984,600 $17,939,600 $5,955,000 49.7%
$400,000,000 $15,984,600 $23,939,600 $7,955,000 49.8%
$500,000,000 $19,984,600 $29,939,600 $9,955,000 49.8%
$1,000,000,000 $39,984,600 $59,939,600 $19,955,000 49.9%

Almost 50% increase in BSD

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 3. Land prices up around 30% since 2020
$2,500 Looking at the trendline
since 2020, average land
$2,000
prices are up around 30%
Land Price ($ psf ppr)

This will translate into

$1,500 higher selling prices

$1,000

$500

$0
1/1/2020 5/30/202010/27/20203/26/2021 8/23/2021 1/20/2022 6/19/202211/16/20224/15/2023 9/12/2023
Transacted Date

Y-Values Linear (Y-Values)

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 3. Home prices and DC rates are linked
200 25% Since 2009 to 3Q 2023,
non-landed private
Prices up by 42.0% 20%
180 property prices have
DC up by 61.1%
increased by 99.2%
URA Non-Landed PPI

15%

Non-Landed DC Rates
160

10% During this period, DC rates

140 have increased by 108.5%
5%

120 This shows that property

0% prices and DC rates are
100 Prices up by 56.2% linked
-5%
DC up by 45.4%

80 -10%
2009Q2

2010Q1

2010Q4

2011Q3

2012Q2

2013Q1

2013Q4

2014Q3

2015Q2

2016Q1

2017Q3

2018Q2

2019Q1

2020Q3

2021Q2

2022Q1

2023Q3
2016Q4

2019Q4

2022Q4
URA Non-Landed PPI Non-Landed DC Rates

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
Are buyers deterred by BSD increase?
(0.06%)
(0.12%)
(0.17%)
(0.21%)
(0.25%)
(0.50%)
(1.10%)
(1.55%)
Business Times, 16 Mar 2023

Developer sales for Feb

 Buyers are not deterred by increase in BSD
9,000 4,000 +7.2%
+12.8% 3,607
8,000 7,716 3,500 3,366

7,000 6,840
3,000

6,000
2,500
5,000
Units

Units
2,000
4,000
+8.4%
3,013 1,500
3,000 2,780

2,000
1,000 +67.8%
668
500 398
1,000

0 0
Up to $1 million $1 million and above Up to $1.5 million $1.5 million and above
Before 20 Feb 2018 On or after 20 Feb 2018 Before 14 Feb 2023 On or after 14 Feb 2023

For 2018 BSD increase, data is from 4Q 2017 to 2Q 2018

For 2023 BSD increase, data is from 4Q 2022 to Mar 2023
Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 13 Mar 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 All transactions at Terra Hill subject to higher BSD
45

40

35

30

25
Units

20

15

10

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 13 Mar 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Transactions at The Botany at Dairy Farm
100
90
80
70 Almost 50% paid higher BSD
60
Units

50
40
30
20
10
0

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 13 Mar 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
Should I Buy New or Resale
 Understanding the life cycle of property 1. Construction
Benefit from price increase as developer
sales hit certain milestone
1. Construction

2. Price Growth Accelerates

5. Demolition
This happens before project
Development gets en-bloc 5. Demolition
2. Price Growth TOP. We want to be in this
Accelerates phase to maximise our
returns

4. Price Growth
3. Price Growth 3. Price Growth Stagnates
Declines
Stagnates Hype created when project TOP-ed
4. Price Growth Declines
Development starts to show is over. Development is over-
its age shadowed by newer projects
Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Why buy new projects and buy early

Progress payments hence Build up and earn Benefit from price

savings on interest interest on CPF monies increase as developer
sales hit certain
milestone

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

 New and resale owners have different start points

Resale buyers will face 3 outcomes

• Gains if any may be lesser than 1st time buyers
• Possibility of 1st time buyers undercutting them
• Uncertainty over when prices will stagnant
Start Point for Start Point for
New Sale Owners Resale Owners

Price Appreciation Price Appreciation

+$300 psf avg +$200 psf avg

500 units project Some owners

Q: Can new sale owners cash
$2,000 psf avg decide to cash
out at $2,300 psf out at $2,450 psf instead?

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

 Buying new launch to ride out the high interest rate
2.0%, $1 mil loan, 30 years 4.0%, $1 mil loan, 30 years Difference
Foundation
Completed 5% = $338 5% = $404 $66

RC Frame
Completed 15% = $1,012 15% = $1,212 $200

Brick Walls
Completed 20% = $1,349 20% = $1,616 $267

CSC 75% = $5,059 75% = $6,060 $1,001

Based on a 3- month SORA-based loan

Source: Huttons Data Analytics Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Wage increase is larger than the higher installment
2.0%, $1 mil loan, 30 years 4.0%, $1 mil loan, 30 years Difference

CSC 75% = $5,059 75% = $6,060 $1,001

TDSR = 31.6% based on $16,000 income TDSR = 31.8% based on $13,249 income

2022 2% increase p.a. for 5 years Increase

Monthly
Income $16,000 $17,665 $1,665

If interest rate stays at 4% at TOP 5 years later, the increase in monthly installment is $1,001

Assume that monthly income increases at 2% per annum for 5 years, monthly income will have increased by
$1,665 which is much more than the increase in installment
Based on a 3- month SORA-based loan
Source: Huttons Data Analytics Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Martin Modern
$3,000 Martin Modern obtained its
TOP
temporary occupation
-5.2% permit in 2Q 2021
$2,800

The average selling prices

Average Price ($ psf)

$2,600 has fluctuated but never

+17.9% +18.5%
surpassed the TOP peak

$2,400 It is difficult to gauge when

prices will turn in the resale
market
$2,200

46.7% sold
$2,000

1Q 2021

4Q 2022
3Q 2017
4Q 2017
1Q 2018
2Q 2018
3Q 2018
4Q 2018
1Q 2019
2Q 2019
3Q 2019
4Q 2019
1Q 2020
2Q 2020
3Q 2020
4Q 2020

2Q 2021
3Q 2021
4Q 2021
1Q 2022
2Q 2022
3Q 2022

1Q 2023
2Q 2023
3Q 2023
Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 JadeScape
$2,200 JadeScape obtained its
TOP
temporary occupation
permit (TOP) in 4Q 2022
+5.5%
The average selling prices
$2,000 +20.1%
continued to increase but
Average Price ($ psf)

at a slower rate

It is difficult to gauge when

46.3% sold
$1,800 prices will turn in the resale
market
+7.1%

$1,600
3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Parc Esta
$2,200 Parc Esta obtained its
TOP
+3.2% temporary occupation
permit in 3Q 2022
+22.7%
The average selling prices
$2,000 continued to increase but
Average Price ($ psf)

at a slower rate
+20.6%
It is difficult to gauge when
43.4% sold prices will turn in the resale
$1,800
market

$1,600
4Q 2018 3Q 2019 2Q 2020 1Q 2021 4Q 2021 3Q 2022 2Q 2023

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Stirling Residences
$2,400 Stirling Residences obtained
TOP
its temporary occupation
+6.2% permit in 2Q 2022
$2,200
The average selling prices
continued to increase but
Average Price ($ psf)

+26.8% at a slower rate

$2,000
+21.9%
43.4% sold
It is difficult to gauge when
prices will turn in the resale
market
$1,800

$1,600
3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
Should I Buy Freehold or Leasehold
 Freehold vs Leasehold (CCR)
$3,000 Both freehold and
$2,620 leasehold properties have
$2,500 appreciated over time
Freehold Non-Landed +194.7%
Leasehold Non-Landed +224.4% $2,349
$2,000 Buying leasehold properties
Average Price ($ psf)

may be better as it offers a

$1,500
better yield for investors
$889
$1,000

$500 $724

$0
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 9M
2023
Freehold Leasehold

* New and resale home prices

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Freehold vs Leasehold (RCR)
$2,500 Both freehold and
$2,209
leasehold properties have
$2,000
appreciated over time
Freehold Non-Landed +200.7%
$1,961
Leasehold Non-Landed +223.0%
Buying leasehold properties
Average Price ($ psf)

$1,500 may be better as it offers a

better yield for investors
$1,000
$684

$500 $652

$0
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 9M
2023
Freehold Leasehold

* New and resale home prices

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Freehold vs Leasehold (OCR)
$1,800 Both freehold and
$1,600 $1,508 leasehold properties have
$1,560 appreciated over time
$1,400 Freehold Non-Landed +145.7%
Leasehold Non-Landed +165.7%
$1,200 Buying leasehold properties
Average Price ($ psf)

may be better as it offers a

$1,000
better yield for investors
$800 $614

$600
$587
$400

$200

$0
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 9M
2023
Freehold Leasehold

* New and resale home prices

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
Economy and Property Market
 Property prices decline before economy contracts
30.
Rebound is Rebound is Rebound is Rebound is
25. sharp and swift sharp and swift sharp and swift sharp and swift

Cooling Cooling Cooling Cooling

20.
measures measures measures measures
15.

10.
% Change

5.

0.
1975Q2
1976Q2
1977Q2
1978Q2
1979Q2
1980Q2
1981Q2

1983Q2
1984Q2
1985Q2
1986Q2
1987Q2
1988Q2
1989Q2
1990Q2
1991Q2
1992Q2

1994Q2
1995Q2
1996Q2
1997Q2
1998Q2
1999Q2
2000Q2
2001Q2
2002Q2
2003Q2
2004Q2
2005Q2

2007Q2
2008Q2
2009Q2
2010Q2
2011Q2
2012Q2
2013Q2
2014Q2
2015Q2
2016Q2
2017Q2
2018Q2
2019Q2
2020Q2
2021Q2
2022Q2
2023Q2
1982Q2

1993Q2

2006Q2
-5.

-10.

-15. Asia Dotcom Global Covid-19

Financial Bust Financial
-20. Crisis Crisis
GDP (Chained 2015 Prices) QoQ Growth URA All Property Price Index QoQ Growth

* Flash estimates
Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Property prices decline before economy contracts
20.
Rebound is Rebound is
sharp and swift sharp and swift
15. Property Property Property
prices fell prices fell prices fell
first first first
10.

5.
% Change

0.
1982Q2

1983Q2

1984Q2

1985Q2

1986Q2

1987Q2

1988Q2

1989Q2

1990Q2

1991Q2

1992Q2

1993Q2

1994Q2

1995Q2

1996Q2

1997Q2

1998Q2

1999Q2

2000Q2

2001Q2

2002Q2
-5.

-10.
Asia Dotcom
Financial Bust
Recession Crisis
-15.
GDP (Chained 2015 Prices) QoQ Growth URA All Property Price Index QoQ Growth

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Property prices decline before economy contracts
20.
Rebound is Rebound is
sharp and swift sharp and swift
15.
Cooling Cooling Cooling
measures measures measures
10.

5.
% Change

0.
2007Q1

2007Q4

2008Q3

2009Q2

2010Q1

2010Q4

2011Q3

2012Q2

2013Q1

2013Q4

2014Q3

2018Q2

2019Q1

2019Q4

2020Q3

2021Q2

2022Q1

2022Q4

2023Q3*
2015Q2

2016Q1

2016Q4

2017Q3
-5.

-10.

-15.
Global Covid-19
Financial
-20. Crisis
GDP (Chained 2015 Prices) QoQ Growth URA All Property Price Index QoQ Growth

* Flash estimates
Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
Property prices contract before economy contracts
The property market falls first before the economy contracts.

Prices in the property market fell 0.8% in 1984Q1, well ahead of the economic contraction in 1985Q2. During
the Asia Financial Crisis in 1997, the property market dived in 1996Q3 after the Government imposed harsh
cooling measures to curb speculation. The property market also turned first in 3Q 2000 during the Dotcom
bust in 2001.

The recovery in the property market on the other hand is instantaneous with the economic recovery. Most of
the time, the recovery in the property market is sharp and swift.

It appears that the property market is a better indicator of economic health. It runs counter to a commonly
held belief that an economic contraction will lead to a property market downturn.

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

Straits Time, 1 May 2023

Business Times, 1 May 2023

Business Time, 12 Aug 2023
Straits Time, 14 OCt 2023
Interest Rates and Property Market
 Do property prices fall when interest rates rise?
200 4.0%

190 3.5%

3.0%
180
URA Price Index

2.5%
170 SORA -0.20% SORA -1.10% SORA +0.03% SORA +2.8% SORA +0.7%

Rates
2.0%
Pty Price +2.7% Pty Price +2.2% Pty Price +10.6% Pty Price +8.6% Pty Price +3.8%
160
1.5%
150
1.0%

140 0.5%

130 0.0%
2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

2021Q3

2021Q4

2022Q1

2022Q2

2022Q3

2022Q4

2023Q1

2023Q2

2023Q3
URA All Property Price Index 3-month SORA

SORA was introduced by MAS in Aug 2019

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Do property prices fall when interest rates rise?
Period1 3-month SORA URA PPI
2019 -0.2% +2.7%
2020 -1.1% +2.2%
2021 +0.03% +10.6%
2022 +2.8% +8.6%
9M 2023 +0.7% +3.8%

The answer is inconclusive. For example, from 2016 to 2017, interest rates rose but property prices rose as well. This was due to
declining unsold stock from 23,271 units in 4Q 2015 to 18,891 units in 4Q 2017. From 2018 to 2020, while interest rates fell,
property prices continued rising but at a slower rate compared to 2018. Unsold stock from 4Q 2017 rose to 24,296 units in 4Q
2020. The Government imposed cooling measures in July 2018 and the economy contracted in 2020. Strong demand in 2021
boosted prices.
Demand and supply appeared to be the main driving factors behind prices. As of 3Q 2023, the unsold stock is at a low of 17,161
units.

SORA was introduced by MAS in Aug 2019

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
War and Property Market
 Do property prices fall when there is a war?
$700 The terrorist attack on 11
Sept 2002 did not have an
2001 Singapore GDP 2002 Singapore GDP
-1.1% +3.9% impact on Singapore
$650
property prices
Average Price ($ psf)

Property prices increased

911
by 4.2% in the next one
$600 year

It may be that people chose

$550
“flight to safety” during
times of uncertainty

$500 Feb-02
Jul-01

Nov-01

Jan-02

Apr-02

Jul-02
Sep-01

Mar-02

Sep-02
Aug-01

Aug-02
Dec-01
Jun-01

Oct-01

Jun-02
Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics
May-02 Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Do property prices fall when there is a war?
$650 The Iraq war did not have
an impact on Singapore
2003 Singapore GDP 2002 Singapore GDP
+4.5% +9.8% property prices

Property prices increased

$600
Average Price ($ psf)

by 2.8% in the next one

Iraq war year

It may be that people chose

$550 “flight to safety” during
times of uncertainty

$500
Feb-03
Jan-03

Apr-03

Jul-03

Nov-03

Jan-04
Mar-03

Sep-03

Feb-04

Mar-04
Aug-03

Dec-03
Jun-03

Oct-03
May-03

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Do property prices fall when there is a war?
$2,000 The Russia-Ukraine conflict
$1,950 2021 Singapore GDP 2022 Singapore GDP
did not have an impact on
+7.6% +3.8% Singapore property prices
$1,900

$1,850 Property prices increased

Average Price ($ psf)

$1,800
by 14.1% in the next few
Russia-Ukraine war months
$1,750

$1,700 It may be that people chose

“flight to safety” during
$1,650
times of uncertainty
$1,600

$1,550

$1,500
Jul-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22
Sep-21

Feb-22

Mar-22

Sep-22
Aug-21

Aug-22
Dec-21
Jun-21

Oct-21

Jun-22
May-22
Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Do property prices fall when there is a war?
Period 2001 GDP 2002 GDP 12-month Change in Property Prices
911 (Sep 2001) -1.1% +3.9% +4.2%

Period 2003 GDP 2004 GDP 12-month Change in Property Prices

Iraq war (Mar 2003) +4.5% +9.8% +2.8%

Period 2021 GDP 2022 GDP 12-month Change in Property Prices

Russia-Ukraine war (Feb 2022) +7.6% +3.6% +8.6%
Singapore GDP contracted 1.1% in 2001. There was an initial drop in property prices in 2001 when 911 happened and US
economy suffered. 2001 was the year when the dotcom bubble burst. Over the next 12 months, property prices increased by
4.2% as the economy returned to growth.
The US economy was growing when they and their allies decided to invade Iraq in 2003. Singapore economy was growing as well.
Overall property prices were up by 2.8% over 12 months compared to Mar 2003.
Over a 12-month period, property prices increased despite the initiation of war and uncertainties. It may be that people chose
“flight to safety” during times of uncertainty.

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
Cooling Measures and Property Market
Types of cooling measures
Types of cooling measures Financial Prudence Wealth Tax Deter Speculation
Buyer’s Stamp Duty Yes
Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty Yes
Seller’s Stamp Duty Yes
Loan to Value Ratio Yes
Stress Test Interest Rate Yes
Total Debt Servicing Ratio Yes

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

Business Times, 27 Apr 2023

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

* Flash estimates
URA All Property Price Index

100
150
250

200

0
50
1Q 2009
3Q 2009
1Q 2010
3Q 2010
1Q 2011
3Q 2011
1Q 2012
3Q 2012
1Q 2013
3Q 2013
1Q 2014
3Q 2014
1Q 2015
3Q 2015
1Q 2016
3Q 2016

Source: URA, MTI, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023)
1Q 2017
3Q 2017
1Q 2018
+3.8%
9M 2023

3Q 2018
1Q 2019
3Q 2019
1Q 2020
3Q 2020
1Q 2021
3Q 2021
1Q 2022
3Q 2022
1Q 2023
3Q 2023
196

Economic Growth
-5.0%
10.0%
15.0%

-15.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
5.0%

1Q 2009
3Q 2009
1Q 2010
3Q 2010
1Q 2011
3Q 2011
1Q 2012
3Q 2012
1Q 2013
3Q 2013
1Q 2014
Private home prices outpaced economic growth

3Q 2014
1Q 2015
3Q 2015
1Q 2016
3Q 2016
1Q 2017
3Q 2017
1Q 2018
3Q 2018
1Q 2019
3Q 2019
1Q 2020
3Q 2020
1Q 2021
3Q 2021
1Q 2022
3Q 2022
Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

1Q 2023
3Q 2023*
1.00%
 Increase in proportion of foreigners
Nationality by Residential Status 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3
Company 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Foreigner (NPR) 3.1% 4.8% 4.6% 6.9% 6.9% 4.0% 1.7%
Singapore Permanent Residents
(PR) 18.0% 17.2% 16.0% 20.7% 20.1% 16.1% 16.9%
Singaporean 78.8% 77.7% 79.2% 72.1% 72.3% 79.8% 81.3%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

From a low of 3.1% in 1Q 2022, this proportion has increased steadily to hit 6.9% in 1Q 2023. This is the
highest since 1Q 2018 when the proportion was 7.3%

The proportion of purchases by foreigners has declined since the cooling measures

*non-landed residential properties (all sale types)

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
Reasons behind the purchases - Singapore

The opening up of Singapore borders to the world is one factor behind the increase

This allowed more foreigners to relocate to Singapore

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

Reasons behind the purchases - China

The second reason could be due

to the relaxation of borders by
China in Jan 2023

There has been an increase in

enquiries from Chinese corporates
and UHNWIs looking to set up
their headquarters and family
offices in Singapore in recent
months

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

 Reasons behind the purchases - Taiwan
1Q 2Q 3Q
Nationality 2021 2022 2023 2023 2023
China 1,739 1,381 343 312 228
Malaysia 1,074 843 166 191 181
India 695 476 119 113 104
Straits Times, 7 Apr 2023 USA 269 308 75 73 55
Indonesia 364 268 49 57 39
Taiwan 92 118 29 27 27
United Kingdom 131 84 25 21 14
Myanmar 57 81 22 16 12
Australia 120 83 16 12 16
Philippines 57 42 14 10 10
Another reason fuelling the increase in proportion of purchases by foreigners is geopolitical tensions

According to reports, there is an increase in enquiries from Taiwanese UHNWIs looking to manage and
preserve their wealth in Singapore

There has been a significant increase in the number of Taiwanese buying residential properties in Singapore
*non-landed residential properties (all sale types)
Nationals and Permanent Residents of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway or Switzerland; Nationals of the United
States of America will be accorded the same stamp duty treatment as Singaporeans
Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Cooling measures on volume Cooling Measures
4,000 Cooling Measures Cooling Measures (Increase in ABSD) Transaction volume will
(Increase in ABSD and lower LTV) (Increase in ABSD and lower TDSR)
decrease after cooling
3,500
measures
Cooling Measures
3,000 (Tighter Stress Test
Interest Rate) Buyers and sellers are
2,500 assessing their options and
the impact on the market
Units

2,000

Volume will return after 3-6

1,500
months
1,000

500

0
3Q 2017

2Q 2019

1Q 2021
1Q 2017
2Q 2017

4Q 2017
1Q 2018
2Q 2018
3Q 2018
4Q 2018
1Q 2019

3Q 2019
4Q 2019
1Q 2020
2Q 2020
3Q 2020
4Q 2020

2Q 2021
3Q 2021
4Q 2021
1Q 2022
2Q 2022
3Q 2022
4Q 2022
1Q 2023
2Q 2023
3Q 2023
Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Cooling Measures
Cooling measures on price (Increase in ABSD)
+0.3% over
200 Cooling Measures Cooling Measures 2 quarters Buyers and sellers are
(Increase in ABSD and lower LTV) (Increase in ABSD and lower TDSR)
assessing their options and
190
+0.4%
the impact on the market
180
What was observed
All Property Price Index

170 +0.7% previously during 2018 was

that prices consolidated
160
before it went on a run for
Cooling Measures
150 (Tighter Stress Test
16 quarters
-0.7% over 2 quarters Interest Rate)
140

130

120
2Q 2018

4Q 2022
1Q 2017
2Q 2017
3Q 2017
4Q 2017
1Q 2018

3Q 2018
4Q 2018
1Q 2019
2Q 2019
3Q 2019
4Q 2019
1Q 2020
2Q 2020
3Q 2020
4Q 2020
1Q 2021
2Q 2021
3Q 2021
4Q 2021
1Q 2022
2Q 2022
3Q 2022

1Q 2023
2Q 2023
3Q 2023*
Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
Straits Times, 30 Apr 2023

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

Business Times, 1 May 2023
Business Times, 8 May 2023

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

 Business Times, 16 Feb 2023

Business Times, 16 May 2023

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

Straits Times, 16 Jun 2023

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

Business Times, 16 Aug 2023

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

Straits Times, 16 Sep 2023

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

Business Times, 17 Oct 2023

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

 Spillover demand to rental market
25,000 170 Most HDB upgraders are
160
likely to sell off their first
20,000 property and rent in the
Average new supply (2012-2017) 150 interim
15,921 units
140
15,000 Foreigners are likely to rent

Rental Index
Units

130 for the moment while they

10,000 apply for their permanent
120
residency or citizenship
110
5,000
However the large supply of
100
private homes completing
0 90 in 2023 coupled with
slowing employment

2023 (F)

2024 (F)

2025 (F)

2026 (F)
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

>2026 (F)
growth will see rents
flattening in 4Q 2023
Supply of Completed Homes URA Rental Index (All Property)

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
Spillover demand to EC market
Business Times, 28 Jun 2023

Plantation
Close

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

Spillover demand to EC market
Business Times, 19 Jul 2023

Tampines
St 62
(Parcel B)

Tenet

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

 Spillover demand to HDB market
200.0 36.5% in 3 years HDB resale market may see
180.0 an increase in supply of
104.1% in 8 years flats for sale if upgraders
160.0
choose to sell before buying
140.0 their next home
HDB Resale Price Index

120.0 307.4% in 6 years

This increase may moderate
100.0
prices in HDB resale flats
80.0 and see not more than 5%
60.0
increase in 2023

40.0 HDB resale flat transactions

20.0 are estimated to be around
27,000 in 2023
0.0
1991

1995
1990

1992
1993
1994

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
9M 2023
Source: HDB, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Spillover demand to commercial, industrial, shophouse
100 600

90
500
80

70
400
60
Units

Units
50 300

40
200
30

20
100
10

0 0
1Q 2022 2Q 2022 3Q 2022 4Q 2022 1Q 2023 2Q 2023 3Q 2023 1Q 2022 2Q 2022 3Q 2022 4Q 2022 1Q 2023 2Q 2023 3Q 2023
Office Shophouse Multi-user Factory

Interest may flow over to the commercial, industrial and shophouse sectors as they are not subjected to ABSD

Transactions may increase in the coming months

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
Win, lose or draw
Residential Status/Property Count Win Lose Draw
Singaporean 1st property
Singaporean 2nd property
Singaporean 3rd property and above
PR 1st property
PR 2nd property
PR 3rd property and above
Foreigners
Trust
Housing Developers
Win, lose or draw
Market Segment Win Lose Draw
Private Residential Home Volume
Private Residential Home Prices
HDB Resale Flat Volume
Private Residential Volume
Private and HDB Rents
Executive Condominium
Commercial
Industrial
Shophouse
 Units

0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
37,799

2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023)

2020Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
2021Q1
2021Q2
2021Q3
2021Q4
2022Q1
2022Q2
2022Q3
2022Q4
2023Q1
2023Q2
2023Q3
17,161

URA All Property Price Index

170
180
190
200

130
150
160

1Q 2017
140 136.7

2Q 2017
Cooling measures unlikely to be eased

3Q 2017
4Q 2017
1Q 2018
2Q 2018
3Q 2018
4Q 2018
1Q 2019
2Q 2019
3Q 2019
4Q 2019
1Q 2020
2Q 2020
3Q 2020
4Q 2020
1Q 2021
2Q 2021
3Q 2021
4Q 2021
1Q 2022
2Q 2022
3Q 2022
4Q 2022
With unsold supply at a low and prices on a uptrend, there is little reason for cooling measures to be eased

1Q 2023
2Q 2023
3Q 2023
196

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

Inflation and Property Market
 Inflation a rising concern for all
50.0% Consumer prices have been
45.0% increasing since 2021
40.0%
While the pace of increase
35.0% has eased in Jun 2023,
30.0% prices are still significantly
Price Growth

higher than a year ago

25.0%

20.0% Consumers have tried to

15.0%
invest in various
instruments to hedge
10.0% against inflation
5.0%
Property is one such
0.0%
instrument
2001

2010
2000

2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Sep 2023
Source: Singstat, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Properties are a good hedge against inflation
100.0% Year Inflation Property Prices
2000-3Q 2023 43.8% 80.0%
80.0%

Properties are a good

60.0%
hedge against inflation
Change in Prices

40.0% Over the years, properties

have appreciated more
20.0% than inflation

0.0% Property prices have

2003

2012

2021
2000
2001
2002

2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

2022
Sep 2023
increased by 80% in the
-20.0% period 2000 to 3Q 2023
while inflation was 43.8%
-40.0%
Inflation Property Prices

Source: URA, Singstat, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
Stress Test Interest Rate and Loan
 Weekly sales before and after cooling measures
200 There is no impact on
187
180
demand after the
Government tightened the
160 stress test interest rate to
140
4% from 3.5% previously
123
120 After the tightening, the
Average Average daily sales remained at 11
Units

100
11/day 11/day
per day which is similar to
80 the level before the cooling
60
measures

40

20

0
19 Sep - 29 Sep 2021 30 Sep - 16 Oct 2021

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 17 Oct 2022) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Impact of TDSR Interest Rate on Loan

3.5% 4.0% CPF OA Contribution

TDSR Interest Rate $2,300/month

$1.22 $1.15 -5.9% $27,603/year

million million
IWAA 35 years old
Combined Income $10,000/mth Loan $73,000/$27,603 = 2.6

Loan Tenure 30 years

2.6 years to make up
75% loan -$73,000 -5.9%
for the lower loan
No outstanding loans amount
Difference

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

 Impact of TDSR Interest Rate on Loan

3.5% 4.0% CPF OA Contribution

TDSR Interest Rate $2,760/month

$1.47 $1.38 -5.9% $33,120/year

million million
IWAA 35 years old
Combined Income $12,000/mth Loan $87,000/$33,120 = 2.6

Loan Tenure 30 years

2.6 years to make up
75% loan -$87,000 -5.9%
for the lower loan
No outstanding loans amount
Difference

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

 Impact of TDSR Interest Rate on Loan

3.5% 4.0% CPF OA Contribution

TDSR Interest Rate $2,760/month

$1.71 $1.61 -5.9% $33,120/year

million million
IWAA 35 years old
Combined Income $14,000/mth Loan $101,900/$33,120 = 3.1

Loan Tenure 30 years

3.1 years to make up
75% loan -$101,900 -5.9%
for the lower loan
No outstanding loans amount
Difference

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

Market Outlook
Straits Times, 22 Jun 2023
Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 21 Jun 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Making up for lost time
6,000 The Government has been
reducing land supply since
5,000 4,825 2013
4,600

GLS land reached a low of

4,000 only 755 dwelling units in
3,390
2H 2020
Dwelling Units

3,010
3,000
The Government is
2,290
increasing land supply to
2,000
1,625 meet the strong demand
for homes post Covid
1,015
1,000 755

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 21 Jun 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 2021 GLS sites – at least 1 year before launch ready
Year Location Project Launch Year TOP
2H2021 Jalan Tembusu Tembusu Grand 2023 2028
2H2021 Lentor Hills Road (Parcel A) Lentor Hills Residences 2023 2028
2H2021 Dairy Farm Walk The Botany at Dairy Farm 2023 2027
2H2021 Bukit Batok West Avenue 8 (EC) Altura 2023 2027
1H2021 Tampines Street 62 (Parcel A) (EC) Tenet 2022 2026
1H2021 Lentor Central Lentor Modern 2022 2026
1H2021 Slim Barracks Rise (Parcel A) Blossoms by the Park 2023 2027
1H2021 Slim Barracks Rise (Parcel B) The Hill @ One-North 2024 NA

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 2022 GLS sites – at least 1 year before launch ready
Year Location Project Launch Year TOP
2H2022 Bukit Timah Link NA 2024 NA
2H2022 Hillview Rise Hillhaven 2024 NA
2H2022 Lentor Gardens NA 2024 NA
2H2022 Marina Gardens Lane NA 2024 NA
2H2022 Tengah Plantation Loop (EC) NA 2025 NA
2H2022 Tampines Ave 11 NA 2024 NA
1H2022 Pine Grove (Parcel A) Pinetree Hill 2023 2027
1H2022 Dunman Road Grand Dunman 2023 2027
1H2022 Lentor Central Hillock Green 2023 2028
1H2022 Lentor Hills Road (Parcel B) NA 2024 NA
1H2022 Bukit Batok West Avenue 5 (EC) Lumina Grand 2024 NA

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
Business Times, 22 Sep 2022

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

3. Construction costs are trending upwards
2019 2023

OCR $300 psf OCR $450 psf 50%

RCR $450 psf RCR $650 psf 44%

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

Straits Times, 21 Feb 2023
GST has biggest impact on construction costs

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

(0.06%)
(0.12%)
(0.17%)
(0.21%)
(0.25%)
(0.50%)
(1.10%)
(1.55%)
 Increase in BSD has biggest impact on land costs
On or Before On or After Difference in Percentage
Land Price 14 Feb 2023 15 Feb 2023 Amount Difference
$20,000,000 $784,600 $1,139,600 $355,000 45.2%
$30,000,000 $1,184,600 $1,739,600 $555,000 46.9%
$40,000,000 $1,584,600 $2,339,600 $755,000 47.6%
$50,000,000 $1,984,600 $2,939,600 $955,000 48.1%
$100,000,000 $3,984,600 $5,939,600 $1,955,000 49.1%
$200,000,000 $7,984,600 $11,939,600 $3,955,000 49.5%
$300,000,000 $11,984,600 $17,939,600 $5,955,000 49.7%
$400,000,000 $15,984,600 $23,939,600 $7,955,000 49.8%
$500,000,000 $19,984,600 $29,939,600 $9,955,000 49.8%
$1,000,000,000 $39,984,600 $59,939,600 $19,955,000 49.9%

Almost 50% increase in BSD

Source: Huttons Data Analytics Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Private rents may rise beyond 2024
25,000 170 The ten-year average new
160
completion of homes was
20,000 15,921 units
Average new supply (2012-2017) 150
15,921 units
There is a huge
140
15,000 undersupply of 52,702 new

Rental Index
Units

130 completed homes from

10,000 2018 to 2022
120

110 This acute undersupply of

5,000
private homes means that
100
landlords have the ability to
0 90 command better rents
compared to periods where

2023 (F)

2024 (F)

2025 (F)

2026 (F)
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

>2026 (F)
there are a lot of new
supply
Supply of Completed Homes URA Rental Index (All Property)

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Years needed to boost supply up to 27,767 units
45,000 The ten-year average
40,000
unsold units in the market
was 27,767
35,000
Average unsold units (2012-2021)
27,767 units
As of 3Q 2023, the unsold
30,000
units was 17,161
25,000 Gap of
Units

~10,000 If 27,767 units is the

20,000 units
17,161 equilibrium state for stable
15,000 prices, there is a gap of
around 10,000 units
10,000

5,000 It will likely take years to

close the gap of ~10,000
0 units
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
2021Q1
2021Q2
2021Q3
2021Q4
2022Q1
2022Q2
2022Q3
2022Q4
2023Q1
2023Q2
2023Q3
2012Q1

2016Q4

2019Q1

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
More land sales needed to boost supply

Unsold units = New supply - Units sold

2,000 = 10,000 - 8,000

There is only 1 way to increase supply into the market

Sell more land

Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document

 Years needed to boost supply up
GLS En-Bloc Total New Supply (A) New Sales (B) Nett (A-B)
2016 3,095 2,413 5,508 2017 5,508 10,566 -5,058
2017 4,355 13,980 18,335 2018 18,335 8,795 9,540
2018 4,335 9,384 13,719 2019 13,719 9,912 3,807
2019 2,875 155 3,030 2020 3,030 9,982 -6,952
2020 1,930 353 2,283 2021 2,283 13,027 -10,744
2021 2,640 2,500 5,140 2022 5,140 7,099 -1,959
2022 5,300 2,428 7,728 Total 48,015 59,381 -11,366 GAP

The GAP can only be closed if there is more New Supply than New Sales every year
The GAP can only be closed in 4 years if New Supply exceeds New Sales by 2,900 units every year
The GAP can only be closed in 3 years if New Supply exceeds New Sales by 3,800 units every year
The GAP can only be closed in 2 years if New Supply exceeds New Sales by 5,700 units every year
Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 28 Jul 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Land prices up around 30% since 2020
$2,500 Looking at the trendline
since 2020, average land
$2,000
prices are up around 30%
Land Price ($ psf ppr)

This will translate into

$1,500 higher selling prices

$1,000

$500

$0
1/1/2020 5/30/202010/27/20203/26/2021 8/23/2021 1/20/2022 6/19/202211/16/20224/15/2023 9/12/2023
Transacted Date

Y-Values Linear (Y-Values)

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Home prices and DC rates are linked
200 25% Since 2009 to 3Q 2023,
non-landed private
Prices up by 42.0% 20%
180 property prices have
DC up by 61.1%
increased by 99.2%
URA Non-Landed PPI

15%

Non-Landed DC Rates
160

10% During this period, DC rates

140 have increased by 108.5%
5%

120 This shows that property

0% prices and DC rates are
100 Prices up by 56.2% linked
-5%
DC up by 45.4%

80 -10%
2009Q2

2010Q1

2010Q4

2011Q3

2012Q2

2013Q1

2013Q4

2014Q3

2015Q2

2016Q1

2017Q3

2018Q2

2019Q1

2020Q3

2021Q2

2022Q1

2023Q3
2016Q4

2019Q4

2022Q4
URA Non-Landed PPI Non-Landed DC Rates

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Prices in OCR have appreciated 57.3%
$3,000 It has taken around 6 years
$2,641 for prices in OCR to
$2,500 appreciate 57.3% or $756
$2,076
psf
$2,000
Average Price ($ psf)

With another 7 years to go,

it is possible that prices in
$1,500 $1,320 OCR may reach $2,641 psf
which is double the price in
$1,000 2017

$500

$0

3Q 2023

2030*
2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

* estimates 2022
Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Prices in RCR have appreciated 52.4%
$3,500 $3,315 It has taken around 6 years
for prices in RCR to
$3,000 appreciate 52.4% or $869
$2,527
psf
$2,500
With another 7 years to go,
Average Price ($ psf)

$2,000 it is possible that prices in

$1,658 RCR may reach $3,315 psf
$1,500
which is double the price in
2017
$1,000

$500

$0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 3Q 2023 2030*

* estimates
Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Premium of CCR over RCR average 34%
70.0% The average premium of
CCR homes over RCR (2017
60.0% to 2023) was around 34%

50.0% The narrowing premium

may means that CCR homes
40.0% are undervalued and has
Premium

33.1% Avg 34% the potential to rise

30.0%

20.0% 17.6%

10.0%

0.0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 3Q 2023

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Prices in CCR have appreciated 35.7%
$5,000 It has taken around 6 years
$4,500
$4,412 for prices in CCR to
appreciate 35.7% or $787
$4,000 psf
$3,500
$2,993 If RCR really reaches $3,315
Average Price ($ psf)

$3,000 psf by 2030, CCR prices will

$2,500
not stay stagnant
$2,206

$2,000 The average premium of

$1,500
CCR homes over RCR (2017
to 2023) was around 34%
$1,000

$500
If this premium stays, CCR
prices have to be 34% more
$0 than RCR prices of $3,315
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 3Q 2023 2030*
psf which is $4,442 psf by
2030
* estimates
Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document
 Outlook 2023 (Private)

2021 2022 2023 (F)

Price +10.6% Price 8.6% Price ~5%

New Sale 13,027 units New Sale 7,099 units New Sale ~6,500 units

Resale 19,962 units Resale 14,026 units Resale ~10,000 units

Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics (data downloaded on 27 Oct 2023) Subject to the full disclaimer at the start of the document