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 June 14/21, 2010 Contents Volume 172 Number 23

AVIATION WEEK
& S PA C E T E C H N O L O G Y
Departments
10 Letters
12 Who’s Where
16 Industry Outlook
18 Airline Outlook
19 In Orbit
20-24 News Breaks
25 Washington Outlook
71 A European Perspective
77 Inside Business Aviation
82-83 Classified
84 Contact Us
85 Aerospace Calendar

Space Exploration Technologies is girding

for a second major hurdle this summer in
its quest to deliver cargo and crew to the
International Space Station, following a
successful debut flight of the Falcon 9.

Market Focus Air Transport 41 NASA searches for more robust

14 Weaker euro could strengthen com- 28 Brighter picture emerges for global international partnerships on
petitive positions of Airbus and airline industry, although recov- Earth science and ISS supply
other European aerospace firms ery still faces potential hurdles
80 Ad Astra Rocket assessing
News Breaks 30 Huge A380 order stuns airlines that cooperative unmanned rendez-
20 Lockheed Martin assesses handling must compete with Dubai-based vous mission to an asteroid
qualities of the Joint Strike Fighter Emirates’s superjumbo fleet
carrier variant following first flight Defense
33 Germany’s budget cuts threaten
defense spending, leave airlines 42 German military’s appetite for new
21 Boeing rolls out first 747-8F in military rotorcraft is creating stir
launch airline Cargolux colors, with a €1-billion bill to fill gap
throughout helicopter industry
says 4Q delivery on track
36 EADS exploring options for
cooperating with Embraer, but 43 Development strategies for heavy-
22 Loss of South Korea’s second
equity investment is not planned lift helicopter crystallizing with
KSLV-1 launch vehicle bodes ill for
Russia’s space launch plans as well European defense request for info
Space
24 Grob considers tandem-seat 37 SpaceX’s Falcon 9 first flight sets 46 Trinational Meads once again
G120TP trainer, revives G850 up test of Dragon crew and cargo under scrutiny, this time as
high-altitude observation program capsule, changes policy debate partners confront life-cycle costs

24 ILA Berlin Air Show sets record for 38 German space leaders seek to rein- 47 Race for U.S. presidential helicopter
exhibitors, despite requirement force positions in space radar, bol- contract includes shift in allegiances
to register in 2009 downturn ster satcom and robotics know-how among U.S. and Euro airframers

ON The COver: A technician of Indian company Dynamatic Technologies works on fabrication of the left vertical stabilizer
of a Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighter aircraft under subcontract from Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. Such defense work has helped Dynamatic
build its credentials in winning commercial business from Western customers. Dynamatic is part of the wave of privately owned Indian
aerostructures and component makers that is moving into the international market. A special report on the aerospace industry in India
begins on page 50. Dynamatic Technologies photo.

6 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst

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 June 14/21, 2010 Volume 172 Number 23

58
48 Limitations of rotary AEW 62 India’s failure to orbit satellite with
platform propel Indian navy 53 India seems to be failing in meeting indigenous cryogenic upper-stage
interest in carrier-borne aircraft its goal to bring advanced Western engine will only slow space program
technology into joint ventures
78 ‘Hover-and-stare’ unmanned VTOL 65 Upper-stage failure trips up
micro aircraft is finding expanded 54 Land-use pressures are one of human spaceflight develop-
missions in Afghanistan India’s ever-present challenges to ment in India by at least a year
expanding airport capacity
79 Kawasaki considering joint venture
with foreign aerospace company 66 Space program now able to deliver
for civil version of its XC-2 airlifter 56 Slowdown changes shape of Indian on early promise to ‘bring benefits
commercial aviation, favoring
of space to the common man’
Flight Test growth of budget carriers
49 Boeing gearing up to start 787 full-
58 India’s fervor for defense self-
70 More than 500 companies contri-
performance tests, planning stages bute to India’s civil space pro-
sufficiency has been matched only
for service-ready demo with ANA gram, enhancing ISRO’s value
by its inability to deliver fully
Emerging Markets-India 60 Trend toward regulatory reform Face to Face
50 Developing countries like India is promoting business aviation;
will be powerful catalysts as 72 Comac chairman confirms plans
industry turns to other obstacles for an entire aircraft family
the aerospace industry evolves
to be produced in China
51 As the Indian economy booms, 61 Indian MRO industry grows to
aerospace becomes the meet domestic airlines’ demands;
next growth opportunity international focus comes next Manufacturing
38 66
74 Boeing undertakes a more than
$800-million overhaul to ensure
efficient use of Everett facility

Viewpoint
86 Fielding expensive, strategically
useless missile defenses could lead
to a new arms race

AviationWeek.com For the complete current issue, archives

and more, go to: AviationWeek.com/awst
Free to subscribers.

MICHAEL MECHAM/AW&ST

Boeing’s widebody factory in Everett, Wash., is aviation’s biggest airplane shop and one of
its most famous. From the outside, it does not appear to have changed much in the 20 years
since it was expanded to accommodate the 777 program. But inside, a lot has occurred in the
past five years as Boeing drives to continuously improve efficiency and make the plant safer
and more comfortable for the 30,000 people who work there. The company’s Future Factory
plan includes replacing the pictured door in the underused Building 40-32 with one that is
240 x 80 ft., for 767 production, which moves there next year. Northern California Bureau Chief
Michael Mecham, one of our Boeing watchers, reports on these changes beginning on p. 74.
Mecham also has teamed up with Aviation Week Art Director Lisa Caputo and web specialist
Greg Lewis to create an interactive bird’s-eye view of what’s inside. The graphic can be viewed online at AviationWeek.com/Everett

See India Aerospace & Defense at AviationWeek.com/india to enhance the special report that begins on p. 50. Featured is a video for
showing how this fledgling spacefaring nation launched Chandrayaan-1 to the Moon and found conclusive evidence of water there. Also
online are a detailed breakdown of Indian airline market share; an interactive map showing Indian airports, MROs, manufacturers and more;
blog posts on commercial and defense issues; as well as a gallery of photos of Indian aircraft, ships and other systems. In addition, there is a
time line of key events in the emergence of India’s aerospace industry.
8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 14/21, 2010 AviationWeek.com/awst
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 cOrrespOndence
Mix And MAtch On Fighters
Recently the U.S. Air Force stated Two JSF EnginES ArE A wASTE
that its future shortfall of fighter air- Insanity! The only other words that describe maintaining two engine designs
craft is reduced to about 185 from 800 for one military airframe are greed and arrogance. After an intense competi-
because the upcoming fifth-generation tion, the Lockheed Martin design for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter was selected
fighters are superior to the legacy and is now in production, but corporate America and its allies in Congress, in
fourth-generation ones. This assumes
defiance of the Defense Department and a deficit that threatens the repub-
enough F-35 Joint Strike Fighters can
be produced and at reasonable cost. lic, fight on to keep an unnecessary second engine design alive. Thoughtful
While we have had the luxury of people should be afraid when someone of Defense Secretary Robert Gates’s
providing the finest fighter aircraft to stature can’t put an end to wasteful spending.
our forces, we have not had to sacri- USAF Col. (ret.) Michael Gallagher
fice quantity. Coincidentally, because HILLSboRo, oRe.
USAF will not have the numbers of F-22
aircraft desired—due to production and
cost issues we hope the F-35 will avoid— cable for complex single-use vehicles to had a remaining lifetime of as little
the F-22 force will have to be supported approach aviation standards of safety. as 100 hr. There are no fully reliable
by upgraded F-15 Golden Eagles. Fifty years of expendable launchers methods available to crews to detect a
A not-so-bold prediction might be that have led to a mindset that spaceplanes diffuse, yet potentially damaging cloud.
however many F-35s we can produce will must be difficult, dangerous and expen- Steven P. Bezman
be insufficient to support all of America’s sive to develop. otherwise, space agen- AlEXAndRIA, VA.
goals, and they will have to be similarly cies would have built them decades ago.
supported by current proven aircraft. In David Ashford bring bAck shuttle c
fact, USAF has started rewinging of A-10 AlMondSBURy, EnGlAnd What worries me about retiring the
aircraft and life-extension programs for space shuttle is that it is the only vehicle
multiple other platforms. nAsA repOrt On Ash encOunter capable of maintaining the International
It seems we cannot admit that a mix As air transportation stakeholders Space Station (ISS). We have many ve-
of new advanced fighters supported by consider how to safely operate near vol- hicles capable of resupplying the station,
enhanced legacy aircraft is the best solu- canic ash, they should review this sum- but only the shuttle can lift large parts.
tion for the U.S. But if we take as long mary from nASA’s TM-2003 212030: While nASA has been identifying and
with the F-35 as with the F-22, it may on Feb. 28, 2000, a nASA dC-8 prepositioning spares, no one can fore-
well be too late to produce a supporting Airborne Sciences research airplane see the unknowns or spares that might
cast of fourth-generation aircraft when inadvertently flew through a diffuse fail, rendering the ISS useless or unin-
they are needed the most. plume of volcanic ash from Mount Hekla habitable. Is the retirement saving worth
Joe Speth (Iceland). There were no indications to this risk? I would store two of the three
ST. PETERS, Mo. the flight crew, but sensitive on-board orbiters and fly the remaining one just
instruments detected the 35-hr.-old ash enough to keep the staff qualified while a
nO Mystery AbOut spAceplAnes plume. Upon landing, there was no visible new heavy-lift vehicle is developed.
Reader Tom Megna doesn’t “get” damage to the airplane or engines’ first- And why couldn’t that new vehicle
spaceplanes (AW&ST May 24, p. 10). stage fan blades; later borescope inspec- be the Shuttle C? Proposed in the 1980s
Spaceplanes are airplanes. They have tion revealed clogged turbine-cooling air as a lower-cost heavy-lift addition to
rocket engines, reaction controls and passages. The engines were overhauled the STS program, Shuttle C would be a
thermal protection but are airplanes in for $3.2 million. powered cargo pod that attaches to the
engineering essentials. Also, they are Satellite data analysis of the plume external tanks and solid-rocket boost-
fully reusable and are piloted. trajectory indicated atmospheric effects ers, and flies the shuttle profile. Without
Thus, 100 years of flight safety experi- had transported the ash farther north the requirement for recovery, it would
ence can be built into new spaceplanes. than predicted. Analysis of particles col- vastly increase the payload to any low-
Imagine that, in the late 1960s, an X-15 lected in cabin air heat exchanger filters Earth-orbit altitude, including the ISS,
successor had entered service for sub- showed strong evidence of volcanic ash, over the shuttle, and at far less cost.
orbital research and passenger space- most of which may have been ice-coated If designed as man-rated, including
experience flights. By now, suborbital (less damaging to the aircraft) when en- the ability to mount the orion crew vehi-
spaceflight would be routine and ap- countered. Engine temperatures caused cle, but initially flown unmanned, Shuttle
proaching or even exceeding the general melting and fusing of ash inside of high- C could allow retirement of the orbiters,
aviation statistic of one fatal accident per pressure turbine blade cooling passages. fly astronauts, supplies and parts to the
100,000 flights. Two-stage orbital space- There was no evidence of engine ISS, and recover astronauts.
planes would not be far behind. damage, but some blades were operat- William D. Sieg
By contrast, manned spaceflight has ing partially uncooled and may have MonUMEnT, Colo.
averaged one fatal accident per 100
flights. Every time the space shuttle Aviation Week & Space Technology welcomes the opinions of its readers on issues raised in the
flies, a crew of seven is in effect flight- magazine. Send letters to [email protected] or go to aviationweek.com/awst
testing a ballistic missile. The same to join a dialogue about letters that appear here. Letters should be shorter than 200 words, and you
goes for any manned vehicle using a must give a genuine identification, address and daytime telephone number. We will not print
throwaway lower stage. It is not practi- anonymous letters, but names will be withheld. We reserve the right to edit letters.

10 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst

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 WHO’S WHERE

Christian Gras Matthieu Louvot Paul K. Russell Connie Whitton Mark Thibault Pete Buresh

J
ames larwood, who was president of paul k. Russell (see photo) has been paul stein has been named chief sci-
the Bloomfield, Conn.-based Kaman appointed vice president-space within entific officer of U.K.-based Rolls-Royce
Aerospace Group’s Precision Products the Northrop Grumman Corp.’s Navigation plc. He was science and technology di-
Div. has become president of Kaman Systems Div., Woodland Hills, Calif. He rector at the country’s Defense Ministry.
Composites. He has been succeeded by was director of the company’s Azusa, Ca-
John kornegay, who was president of the lif., site and had been director of systems Honors and ElEctions
Specialty Bearings Div. Following Korne- engineering for Space Systems/Loral. Jeff cuzzi, a planetary scientist at
gay is Robert paterson, who was the divi- David Mandel has become vice presi- NASA Ames Research Center, Mof-
sion’s vice president-marketing and sales. dent-membership and business develop- fett Field, Calif., has been named win-
Richard thorley, former chief executive ment of the Arlington, Va.-based Aero- ner of the 2010 Gerard P. Kuiper Prize
of subsidiary Brookhouse Holdings, has space Industries Association. He was chief for lifetime contributions to planetary
been appointed strategy and development of staff to AIA President Marion Blakey sciences by the American Astronomical
director of the Kaman Aerospace Group. when she was FAA administrator, and a Society’s Division of Planetary Sciences.
guy thomas has been named group former counsel to the chairman of the Cuzzi is being honored for his pioneer-
managing director of Brookhouse. He was National Transportation Safety Board. ing contributions to understanding of
its finance director. tim Bates has been connie whitton (see photo) has been the formation and evolution of planetary
named general manager of the Blade Cen- named assistant vice president-strategic rings and small planets. Spanning four
ter of Excellence and Subcontract Product initiatives for the Syracuse (N.Y.) Research decades, his work includes early obser-
Group, terry Fogarty general manager of Corp. She was an executive coach and vational and theoretical work on rings,
the Unmanned Aircraft Systems Group equity partner for Productivity Leader- participation in NASA’s Voyager and
and Bob Manaskie general manager of ship Systems. stephen Duning has been Cassini missions, and his state-of-the-
the Helicopter Aftermarket Group, all in promoted to assistant vice president- art fluid dynamical modeling efforts that
the Kaman Helicopters Div. Bates was electronic warfare from site director in is expected to help solve the mysteries of
director of operations, while Fogarty was Dayton, Ohio, and Jack losecco to assis- planet formation.
director of K-Max programs. John shel- tant vice president-software engineering James huddle, director of advanced
anskas has been named acting director of from product and service area director projects in the Advanced Technology
the operations support organization. for defense and intelligence programs. and Strategic Applications organiza-
christian gras (see photos) has been peter l. Bloom has been appointed tion at the Northrop Grumman Corp.’s
appointed executive vice president- to the board of directors of Passur Aero- Navigation Systems Div., Woodland
customers and Matthieu louvot vice space Inc., Stamford, Conn. He is an ad- Hills, Calif., has won the Kershner
president/head of corporate strategy and visory director at General Atlantic. Award from the Institute of Electrical
development for Eurocopter, Marignane, angela anderson has become mar- and Electronics Engineers/Institute of
France. Gras succeeds philippe har- keting manager for Aspen Avionics, Navigation Position Location and Navi-
ache, who has resigned. He was executive Albuquerque, N.M. She was strategic gation Symposium Executive Commit-
vice president-customer support for Latin business manager for Jeppesen. tee. The award, which is named for
America for the Strategy and Marketing Former NASA astronaut Jim Reilly Richard B. Kershner, the lead devel-
Group of parent company EADS. Louvot has been named dean of the School oper for the first satellite navigation
was an adviser to the French president on of Science and Technology at the on- system, recognizes contributions to the
industry, energy and transportation. He line American Public University System, technology of navigation and position
succeeds andreas loewenstein, who is Charles Town, W. Va. equipment, systems or practices.  c
now senior vice president-strategy and Mark thibault (see photos) has been
development for Paris-based DCNS. appointed Hong Kong-based director of
Basil Barimo has become vice presi- product support programs and pete Bu- To submit information for the Who’s Where
dent-global engineering and quality of the resh sales director for Africa for the Gulf- column, send Word or attached text files
Nordam Repair Group, Tulsa, Okla. He was stream Aerospace Corp., Savannah, Ga. (no PDFs) and photos to:
[email protected]
vice president-operations and safety for Thibault was director of maintenance/di-
For additional information on companies and
the Air Transport Association of America. rector of flight operations/chief operating individuals listed in this column, please refer to
lee k. Barba has been named to the officer for Metrojet Ltd. of Hong Kong. the World Aerospace Database Online at
board of directors of the EDAC Technol- Buresh was a senior sales engineer. AviationWeek.com/wad hosted and
ogies Corp., Farmington, Conn. He was alan Dreher has become director of published by AVIATION WEEK. For informa-
chairman/CEO of the Thinkorswim corporate security for AirTran Airways. tion on ordering, telephone U.S. +1 (800)
Group Inc. He was assistant police chief in Atlanta. 525-5003 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S.

12 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst

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 market focus
WEEKLY MARKET
PERFORMANCE
closing Prices as of June 9, 2010 Stock Market Indexes
(as of 6/9/2010) PERCENT CHANGE
current Previous trailing fwd. Pct. chg MARKETS INDEX VALUE WEEK AGO YEAR-TO-DATE YEAR AGO
company Name Week Week P/e P/e YtD
12.2% ▲
▲ ▲
AW Aerospace 25 1172.3 -3.8% -2.1%
AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
▲ ▲
AW Airline 25 842.8 -3.0% -4.1% 21.3% ▲
▲ ▲
S&P 500 1055.7 -3.9% -5.3% 12.4% ▲
AAR Corp. 17.84 18.87 10.8 14.0 -22.4 t 70%
AerCap Holdings N.V. 10.90 11.15 5.5 5.6 23.6 s 60%

Increase/decrease in past year

AeroVironment Inc. 24.53 25.52 48.7 16.5 -15.6 t 50%
AW Aerospace 25 S&P 500 AW Airline 25
Allegheny Technologies Inc. 48.81 52.73 109.1 24.6 9.0 s
40%
Alliant Techsystems Inc. 65.70 67.75 7.9 7.8 -25.6 t
30%
B/E Aerospace Inc. 24.36 27.14 17.6 15.0 3.7 s
20%
BAE Systems plc 4.68 4.75 …. 7.5 -19.5 t
10%
Boeing Co. 61.71 64.34 35.9 14.4 14.0 s
0%
Bombardier Inc. ‘B’ 4.35 4.66 11.3 11.5 -4.7 t
-10%
Cobham plc 3.37 3.38 12.9 11.3 -17.1 t
-20%
Curtiss-Wright Corp. 30.28 33.15 14.5 13.2 -3.3 t 6/10 7/8 8/5 9/2 9/30 10/28 11/25
2009 2010
12/23 1/20 2/17 3/17 4/14 5/12 6/9
DigitalGlobe Inc. 25.03 27.67 29.7 33.6 3.4 s
The base date for Aviation Week’s indexes is Dec. 31, 1997, and equals 1,000.
EADS NV 20.78 19.58 -15.0 24.5 2.9 s Aviation Week & Space Technology and Standard & Poor’s jointly developed the
Elbit Systems Ltd. 50.00 49.51 9.7 10.4 -22.9 t AW Aerospace 25 and Airline 25 indexes. The data are compiled and updated by S&P.
For lists of the companies in the indexes, go to: AviationWeek.com/aw25
Embraer-Empresa Brasil ADR 20.46 21.56 7.4 13.6 -7.5 t
16.4 s

A
Esterline Technologies Corp. 47.46 52.77 12.7 12.2
Finmeccanica SpA. 10.86 10.57 7.3 7.5 -32.3 t decline of more than 20% in the value of the euro against the
General Dynamics Corp. 62.55 67.92 10.1 9.4 -8.2 t U.S. dollar is bolstering the competitiveness of airbus and
Goodrich Corp. 64.66 68.97 16.4 14.0 0.6 s other European aerospace manufacturers while eroding a
Harris Corp. 44.70 47.78 18.0 9.5 -6.0 t pricing advantage that a weak dollar has provided to Boeing co.
Heico Corp. 36.04 40.05 25.8 23.0 1.6 s and U.S. suppliers for several years. Concerns about the financial
Hexcel Corp. 15.28 16.27 31.0 21.4 17.7 s health of Greece and other members of the 16-country euro zone
Honeywell International Inc. 40.01 42.93 14.3 15.5 2.1 s pushed the currency below $1.20 last week—its lowest level in more
ITT Corp. 45.39 48.03 13.7 10.5 -8.7 t than four years—down from $1.50 in late 2009. The stronger U.S.
L-3 Communications Hldgs Inc. 79.16 82.24 10.1 9.4 -9.0 t currency benefits Airbus, which sells its jets in dollars but incurs
Ladish Co. Inc. 22.16 24.42 34.4 18.4 47.2 s about half its expenses in euros. European suppliers such as Mtu
Lockheed Martin Corp. 77.34 79.80 10.2 10.3 2.6 s
aero engines, Dassault aviation and safran sa also benefit.
Moog ‘A’ 31.31 32.86 17.9 12.3 7.1 s
The shift has implications across the aerospace industry. The
Northrop Grumman Corp. 57.56 60.82 10.9 9.2 3.1 s
weaker euro makes U.S. weapons platforms—such as the Joint
Orbital Sciences Corp. 14.70 15.74 23.3 16.4 -3.7 t
Parker-Hannifin Corp. 58.42 61.68 24.9 14.4 8.4 s
Strike Fighter—less affordable for potential European buyers.
Precision Castparts Corp. 104.93 115.75 16.1 14.2 -4.9 t
And oil, which is sold in U.S. dollars, has become pricier for Eu-
Raytheon Co. 50.51 52.94 10.3 10.0 -2.0 t ropean airlines, though hedges should
Rockwell Collins Inc. 54.81 58.63 15.9 14.8 -1.0 t Commentary limit the impact. The biggest effect,
however, could be a shift in the com-
Rolls-Royce Group plc 8.65 8.67 4.5 15.6 10.7 s by Joseph C. Anselmo petitive balance between Airbus and
Safran SA 27.82 26.48 12.1 19.2 41.8 s
SAIC Inc. 17.40 17.44 13.6 12.4 -8.1 t
and Robert Wall Boeing.
Singapore Technologies Eng. 2.20 2.24 20.5 18.9 -5.0 t Charles Armitage, a London-based
Spirit Aerosystems Holdings 18.15 19.13 13.8 10.2 -8.6 t consultant at Charles River Associates, calculates that the recent
Textron Inc. 18.68 20.47 -42.1 24.4 -0.7 t decline of the euro will allow Airbus to lower the price of a new jet
Thales 33.90 34.15 -22.9 21.0 -34.2 t by 10% and command the same profit it did when the euro was at
TransDigm Group Inc. 50.42 51.65 21.0 15.1 6.2 s $1.50. That gives the European aircraft giant the flexibility to be
Triumph Group Inc 62.88 66.97 12.3 12.1 30.3 s more aggressive when it competes with Boeing for airline orders.
United Technologies Corp. 63.42 67.46 14.8 13.0 -8.6 t But the near-term benefits of a lower euro will be limited for
AIRLINES many European contractors because they have hedged their dol-
ACE Aviation Holdings 7.52 7.92 -0.4 -9.1 31.3 s lar costs. Those hedges, secured as protection when the euro was
Air France - KLM 11.74 12.09 -1.6 -7.5 -25.5 t soaring in value against the dollar, have locked them into paying
AirTran Holdings 5.54 5.90 8.3 9.6 6.1 s above-market exchange rates. At current rates, the hedges held
Alaska Air Group 47.85 49.93 11.8 8.1 38.5 s by Airbus parent eaDs nv represent an estimated $2-billion
All Nippon Airways Co Ltd. 2.96 2.88 -11.2 …. 9.3 s drag on profits. Senior EADS executives do not expect to see the
AMR Corp. 7.96 8.20 -1.5 -10.9 3.0 s
full benefit of the euro’s decline until 2013-14.
British Airways 27.69 30.06 -49.5 …. -9.5 t
Boeing would be remiss, however, to assume the euro’s recent
China Southern Airlines 20.45 21.79 …. …. 32.6 s
weakness will be short-lived. EADS CEO Louis Gallois maintains
Continental Airlines ‘B’ 22.23 22.54 -10.1 7.5 24.1 s
Delta Air Lines Inc. 13.36 14.09 -15.8 8.9 17.4 s
the new valuation is “reasonable.” Concerns that the financial cri-
Deutsche Lufthansa AG 12.92 13.02 -31.0 39.4 -23.3 t sis could spread to Eastern Europe have economists predicting
GOL SA 11.40 11.85 7.0 12.9 -25.7 t the currency could fall to parity with the dollar—an unthinkable
JetBlue Airways 6.13 6.48 38.4 17.2 12.5 s notion just a few months ago. And efficiency drives at EADS have
Qantas Airways Ltd. 2.07 2.08 …. 13.3 -22.7 t cut €3 billion out of its costs. Now that the euro is retreating, Boe-
Ryanair Holdings ADS 26.03 24.71 93.4 88.7 -2.9 t ing is facing a more formidable competitor. c
Singapore Airlines Ltd. 10.10 10.00 78.5 13.6 -5.1 t
Source of financial data: Standard & Poor’s and Capital IQ, Inc. (A Division of
Southwest Airlines 11.84 12.62 43.7 16.1 3.6 s
Standard & Poor’s) U.S. dollars and cents. Trailing P/E ratio: stock price divided
UAL Corp. 21.34 21.78 -9.5 6.6 65.3 s by its earnings per share from the latest fiscal year. Forward P/E ratio uses
US Airways Group 8.53 9.44 -8.4 5.6 76.2 s S&P and Capital IQ forecasts of current fiscal year.

14 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst

 “I launched an Estes Astron
Scout – I saw the smoke trail
go up in the air and thought
it was cool. Suddenly for
the first time I could
see how fins were
angles, nose cones
were parabolas.
Geometry had
value now and
I loved it.”

David Newill
AIAA Associate Fellow

In fascinating new videos, AIAA members recall

the moment when aerospace captured
Share the Inspiration their imagination. Share your story too, and
spread the passion for aerospace.

www.aiaa.org/MyStory
 INDUSTRY oUTLooK
Edited by Patricia J. Parmalee

130J set to arrive in February 2011. The

MessaGe ReCeIved aircraft will provide India’s army and
Schiebel’s remotely operated air force with special ops capabilities.
video enhanced receiver (Rover) Cargo Concords
has been tested and integrated Jade Cargo has selected Boeing’s
onto the company’s Camcopter Airplane Health Management (AHM)
S-100 rotary-wing unmanned system to monitor its fleet of six
aircraft system. The integration 747-400 freighters. The performance
enhances the flow of informa- SCHiebel monitoring and custom alerting and
tion to users on the ground. The integration “will greatly improve the field commander’s analysis modules transmit airplane
performance and consumption data
situational understanding and decision-making process,” says Neil Hunter, managing to help carriers improve airplane fuel
director of Schiebel. With a Rover system transmitter-equipped S-100, the UAV operator efficiency, flight-planning and mainte-
and ground units are seeing the same image. nance scheduling. AHM system alerts
and notifications are sent to airline
staff through the MyBoeingFleet.
com portal. Boeing is also supplying
Wide-Ranging GloPac Weather Intel Boost Italy-based cargo operator Cargoitalia
NASA’s unmanned Global Hawk logged U.S. Air Force Materiel Command with a newly converted MD-11 freighter
four science flights over the Pacific in at Hansom AFB, Mass., awarded through a long-term lease. Cargoitalia
April as part of the Global Hawk Pacific Raytheon a $21.8-million contract for plans to begin flying the aircraft on its
(GloPac) mission. The aircraft, fitted modifications to the Joint Environ- Milan-Shanghai route next month. The
with 11 science instruments, acquired mental Toolkit (JET) program for new freighter is expected to be more
and transmitted previously inaccessible next-generation weather systems. JET fuel efficient than older MD-11s.
data. Flights reached up to 65,000 ft. provides environmental intelligence
Data, downloaded in real time to NASA and tailored network-centric solutions Padd Precision
Dryden Flight Research Center, were supporting warfighters on base in de- Kazak Composites’s PADD (preci-
reviewed by scientists who were able ployed operations. The contract covers sion aerial delivery of dropsondes) is a
to request that the Global Hawk pilot Increment 2 of the program, focused on means of delivering sensors that can
adjust the flight path to concentrate on integration, consolidation and potential improve the placement accuracy of the
U.S. Navy’s Antisubmarine Warfare
(ASW). The service’s system “delivers
KeePInG Cool unguided sensors that follow a ballistic
italy’s Microtecnica is being tapped trajectory, resulting in errors in actual
placement point of the sensors,” says
to develop the environmental control Kazak President Jerry Fanucci. PADD
system for Turkey Aerospace indus- is an air vehicle delivery device coupled
tries’ (TAi) Hurkus turboprop primary with a dropsonde launcher to provide
and basic trainer. Delivery of the a precision, standoff delivery capability
first Hurkus is expected in 2011. The using existing ASW.
Microtecnica design will use bleed air
from the engine for cabin pressuriza-
Mda GBI Test
The U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA)
tion, heating and ventilation. A vapor conducted a flight test of a two-stage
cycle compressor will be used for air- MiCRoTeCNiCA Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI), from
craft cooling. The Hurkus is being designed by TAi to meet a Turkish air force requirement. Vandenberg AFB, Calif., on June 6. The
two-stage GBI is undergoing develop-
mental testing as part of the Defense De-
specific areas. From the Arctic Circle replacement of meteorological opera- partment’s investment in a new missile
to Hawaii, the mission logged 82.5 flight tional capabilities. JET engineering defense option for homeland defense. A
hours, including one 28.6-hr. flight, 8 hr. development and integration is based at target missile was not launched for this
of which was spent over polar ice. The Raytheon’s Omaha, Neb., site. test. Following flyout maneuvers, the
GloPac payloads collected atmospheric two-stage booster delivered an exoat-
data in the same location at the same C-130Js India-Bound mospheric kill vehicle to a designated
time as Aura and other Earth-observa- The first of three C-130J Super Her- point in space. After separating from
tion missions. The NASA/National Oce- cules for India are in final positions on the second-stage booster, the kill vehicle
anic and Atmospheric Administration Lockheed Martin’s Marietta, Ga.-based executed a variety of maneuvers to col-
project was conducted with Northrop assembly line. India is due to receive six lect data aimed at further proving the
Grumman support. aircraft plus support, with the first C- performance of the kill vehicle in space.
16 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst
 AIRLINE oUTLooK
Edited by Edward H. Phillips

Baggage Money cause too many passengers have been plans are on track to begin service this
The U.S. Transportation Security Ad- bringing heavy bags to the gate since winter to New York and Bangkok from
ministration (TSA) has received $77.3 the airline began charging $10 for using Oslo and Stockholm, adding Miami
million in economic stimulus funding the check-in counter to check bags— the next summer. Holmberg says Feel
to increase security at U.S. airports. instead of assessing a fee for checked Air has government approval and the
Homeland Security Secretary Janet baggage—five months ago. Mexico $40 million in financing required to
Napolitano says $66.4 million of that prohibits airlines from charging fees for launch the airline, but needs another
amount will be used to install inline the first 25 kg. of checked baggage. $30 million to fund its five-year plan.
baggage systems at San Diego Interna- In addition, Holmberg says the carrier
tional Airport ($28.3 million), Phoenix Rocky Mountain Regional needs to decide on a launch date before
Sky Harbor ($26.6 million) and Little Regional airline veteran Dick Fontaine, signing deals to acquire two Airbus
Rock (Ark.) National Airport ($11.5 president and CEO of Rocky Moun- A330-200 jets, with plans for another
two later. He says the airline can stimu-
late demand with nonstop fares about
HolD THaT CHeCk 50% lower than current levels, with
CIT Leasing has canceled orders about 16% of its revenues coming from
fees and ancillary sources. Long-term,
for four Airbus A319s and four
Holmberg says Feel Air could use as
A320s, marking the first cancel- many as 10 airplanes in its fleet.
lations Airbus has incurred this
year. As part of the transaction, Parts Department
CIT Leasing placed an order Spairliners, a joint MRO venture
for four A330-200s. In addition between Air France and Lufthansa
the airframe manufacturer has Technik, will provide component
support for Lufthansa’s future fleet of
had orders for two A330-220F
Airbus A380s that will eventually total
aircraft canceled by Guggenheim 15 aircraft. The company will overhaul
Aviation Partners, which instead AIrbuS
and repair components, and manage
is increasing its order for A330-300s to three passenger transports from one. Airbus has spare parts inventory as well as associ-
disclosed the cancellations as part of its monthly order tally, which indicates the manufac- ated logistics. In addition to Lufthansa,
turer’s gross order intake for 2010 at 81 units and 73 net aircraft, compared with an order Spairliners already supports 10 A380s
intake of only 32 airplanes at the end of May 2009. The only other new orders recorded in operated by Qantas Airways and Air
France, and has 47 of the airplanes un-
May were for five A320s at Iberia and another five at South African Airways. As of the end
der long-term contract. The repair and
of May, deliveries for this year stood at 206 units—up from 159 at the end of April. Total overhaul of spare parts is performed
order backlog is more than 3,350 aircraft. at Air France Industries’ facility near
Paris Orly Airport and at Lufthansa
Technik’s shops in Hamburg.
million). In addition, Salt Lake City tain Airways, is “testing the waters”
International will receive $4 million to for financial support of a proposed Seeking New Concepts
expand the closed-circuit TV system, regional carrier based in Denver, using The FAA’s William J. Hughes Technical
and another $6.9 million will be allo- Bombardier Dash 8-Q200 and -Q300 Center, located near Atlantic City, N.J.,
cated to 60 airports for the installation airplanes. Initially, service would be has begun operating its NextGen (Next
of explosives detection systems. confined to Colorado and Wyoming. Generation) Integration and Evaluation
From 1982-2002 Fontaine held senior Capability (NIEC) research platform.
Weight Watchers management positions with a number NIEC will facilitate exploration, simula-
Mexican low-cost carrier VivaAerobus of regional operators including Missis- tion, integration and evaluation of con-
is scheduled to begin charging custom- sippi Valley Airlines, GP Express, Sim- cepts for NextGen, which is intended
ers for carry-on bags, according to CEO mons Airlines, Great Lakes Aviation to transform the existing air traffic
Juan Carlos Zuazua, speaking recently and Alliance Airlines. control network into a satellite-based
at the Low-Cost Carriers Conference system for the future. In addition, the
Americas in Miami. The charge— Start-Up Delay FAA says new technologies emerging
based on weight with the first 7 kg. (15 A Scandinavian-based start-up airline from NIEC will improve safety, airport
lb.) allowed onboard for free—will be with plans to begin long-haul, low- and runway capacity while providing
implemented initially in Monterrey cost service has delayed its scheduled procedures to reduce fuel consump-
and Guadalajara, where bags will be launch this summer to develop a longer- tion, carbon emissions and noise.
weighed and money collected before term plan with more rapid expansion
passengers go through security. Zuazua and additional aircraft, according to For more on the airline industry, go to:
says VivaAerobus is adding the fee be- Kai Holmberg, CEO of Feel Air. He says AviationWeek.com/aw/commercial

18 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst

 IN orbIt
Edited by Frank Morring, Jr.

Breaking The Ice vers on June 5 and 9. The return will depleted, since it originally was to re-
The U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Healey, complete the seven-year mission, which turn in 2007. It will limp home on a lone
a state-of-the-art icebreaker, departs launched on an M-V rocket in May ion thruster (of four originals) cobbled
Dutch Harbor, Alaska, June 15 for 2003. When it reaches Earth, Hayabusa together by crossing the ion thrusters
a five-week Arctic Ocean cruise to will release its 17-kg. (37-lb.) asteroid from one engine with an ion neutral-
provide in-situ data that will improve recovery sample capsule. The main izer from a different engine (AW&ST
the accuracy of NASA satellite Nov. 23, 2009, p. 17).

ROSCOSMOS
measurements of the delicate
polar region. Some 40 scientists Off The Shelf
will take part in what will be Engineers are checking out
NASA’s first dedicated oceano- Japan’s second Servis satellite
graphic field campaign. It is following a successful launch
designed to help researchers on June 2. The spacecraft was
better characterize the effects launched from the Plesetsk
of global warming on the Arctic Cosmodrome in northern Rus-
Ocean, and how changes in that sia by a Rockot booster. It was
ocean affect its ability to absorb the first mission since last year
atmospheric carbon. Dubbed for Rockot, which is marketed
Icescape, for Impacts of Climate by the Astrium-Khrunichev
on Ecosystems and Chemistry of joint venture Eurockot. Like
the Arctic Pacific Environment, Servis-1, launched in 2003,
the mission will take the Healey Servis-2 will serve to demon-
into the Chukchi and Beaufort ROOF OF THe WORld strate the use of commercial-
Seas. After ocean sampling in Cosmonaut Oleg Kotov shot this view of Tibet from off-the-shelf technologies
the Bering Strait, it will con- orbit while he was commander of Expedition 23 to (COTS) in space conditions.
tinue collecting in the southern the International Space Station, before returning to The 736-kg. (1,622-lb.) 1.3-kw.
Chukchi and along Alaska’s satellite, designed for one
northern ocean shelf beneath Earth on June 1 after 163 days in space. A medical
year of operation, was built by
the Beaufort. By early July the doctor and avid photographer who also logged more Japan’s Institute for Unmanned
vessel—able to break ice as than 196 days on the ISS in 2007 as a flight engineer Space Experiment Free Flyer.
thick as 4.5 ft. at 3 kt.—will move on Expedition 15, Kotov is now back at the Gagarin Along with commercial SRAM
north to sample multi-year sea Cosmonaut Training Center near Moscow recover- and DRAM computer chips, the
ice. Data to be collected include ing from his most recent long-duration exposure to payload includes an automotive
continuous digital photographs microgravity. A photo gallery with more of the images Li-ion battery, fault-tolerant
of microscopic phytoplankton computer, plug-and-play remote
at the bottom of the Arctic food Kotov brought back from space is available on the
terminal and magnetic bearing
chain; temperature, optical and space channel at www.aviationweek.com wheel. An advanced data man-
biological properties measured agement system, data compres-
in near real-time by floats placed spacecraft will burn up in the atmo- sor, RF MEMS and positioning
along the Healey’s route; and direct sphere, leaving the 40-cm.-dia. (16-in.) experiments are also part of the COTS
samples of floating ice and the ecosys- capsule to parachute down to the package.
tems sheltered beneath it. The informa- surface. If all goes as planned, it will be
tion will add to the fidelity of the ocean collected by June 15, sent by chartered Hatches Closed
color measurements NASA collects plane to Haneda Airport in Tokyo, and A 520-day simulated mission to Mars
from space to characterize Arctic eco- taken to Japan’s Curation Facility in is underway in Moscow, where six men
systems and how they absorb carbon. Sagamihara. The 6-billion-km. (3.7-bil- will remain isolated in a mock space-
The agency is also finding links between lion-mi.) mission has encountered many craft at the Institute of Biomedical
atmospheric aerosols and Arctic warm- problems, beginning with the failure Problems for the time it would take to
ing (AW&ST April 20, 2009, p. 18). of two of three Ithaco reaction control reach the red planet and return. Three
wheels. After its second landing on the Russians, two Europeans and a Chinese
Final Adjustment asteroid Itokawa, a nearly fatal fuel will pretend to spend 250 days flying to
The Japan Aerospace Exploration leak took out all of the spacecraft’s 12 Mars, a month exploring an imitation
Agency (JAXA) says its Hayabusa chemical thrusters, cutting communica- Martian surface in modified Russian
asteroid sample return spacecraft will tions. Controllers were able to relocate Orlan spacesuits, and another 230 days
now definitely land in the Woomera the spacecraft and bring it back online returning to Earth for a “landing” in
Prohibited Area in South Australia after seven weeks of searching. Attitude November 2011 (AW&ST May 17, p. 16).
around midnight June 13, following control was recovered by carefully Hatches closed at 5:49 a.m. EDT June 3.
successful completion of the third and spraying raw xenon gas fuel into space.
fourth trajectory correction maneu- The spacecraft’s batteries are almost For more on space, go to: AviationWeek.com/aw/space

AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtionWeek&spAcetechnology/June14/21,201019
 president and general manager, F-35 program
integration.
The aircraft is expected to complete up to
15 flights from Lockheed Martin’s plant in
Fort Worth, then undergo structural
coupling and ground vibration testing
before ferrying to the U.S. Navy’s Patuxent
River, Md., test center in October.
Two more F-35Cs are on the flight line and
expected to ferry to Pax River by year’s end.
A fourth F-35C, added to the development
program earlier this year for flight-sciences
LOCKHeed MARTIN
testing, is to be purchased in Fiscal 2011
InITIAL F-35C FLyInG FOCUSES The 57-min. first flight from Fort Worth and delivered in 2012, Burbage says. The F-35C
On HAndLInG QUALITIES focused on gear-down handling and forma- is slated to enter U.S. Navy service in 2016.
Looking to initial at-sea trials in 2011, Lock- tion flying with the F/A-18 chase aircraft in “an Burbage says drop testing of an F-35C
heed Martin is assessing the handling qualities early look at handling around the carrier,” says ground-test article at Vought Aircraft Industries
of the Joint Strike Fighter carrier variant follow- test pilot Jeff Knowles, adding, “The approach is about 80% complete, including high sink
ing the June 6 first flight of the F-35C. was very stable, with good roll response.” rates with external stores, with no loading or
The third and final variant in the JSF devel- The landing gear and arrestor hook were structural issues.
opment program, the F-35C has a bigger wing cycled and throttle slams conducted to check The first JSF mission-system test aircraft,
and more powerful flight controls to reduce engine operation. This was the first flight of BF-4, was ferried to Pax River on June 7 to join
takeoff and landing speeds for carrier opera- a production-configuration Pratt & Whitney the first three F-35B short-takeoff-and-landing
tions. It is also the heaviest of the variants. F135 engine, says Tom Burbage, executive vice test aircraft.

AmericAs nical Center near Atlantic City, N.J.,

under a cooperative research and devel-
Orbital To Launch IRIS
Orbital Sciences Corp. is expected
Airship for Afghanistan opment agreement. The FAA will fly to launch NASA’s Interface Regional
The U.S. Army has selected Northrop the unmanned aircraft in restricted air- Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) space-
Gumman to build an unmanned space over the Warren Grove Gunnery craft under a new contract worth $40
surveillance airship to be deployed to Range as it works to develop air traffic million. Launch of the IRIS mission,
Afghanistan, say sources familiar with management procedures for UAVs. The which will measure the flow of energy
the program. The Long Endurance FAA plans to issue a notice of proposed and plasma through the heliosphere
Multi-intelligence Vehicle (LEMV) is a rulemaking covering unmanned aircraft and the Sun’s atmosphere, is set for
hybrid airship capable of staying aloft under 55 lb., including the Scan Eagle, December 2012 on a Pegasus XL air-
for at least 21 days above 20,000 ft., by the first quarter of next year. launched rocket staging from Vanden-
providing 16 kw. of power to a 2,500- berg AFB, Calif.
lb. payload of electro-optical/infrared, UAV Mega-Sensor in Works
radar and signals-intelligence sensors. Lockheed Martin has won a $50-mil- GBI Successfully Flies
Northrop Grumman has teamed with lion U.S. Air Force Research Labora- The U.S. Missile Defense Agency said
U.K. company Hybrid Air Vehicles, tory contract to develop an infrared it successfully conducted a flight test of
which will be responsible for the surveillance sensor capable of provid- a two-stage Ground-Based Interceptor
300-ft.-long air vehicle, with Warwick ing at least 65 steerable video streams (GBI) once eyed for European deploy-
Mills providing the hull fabric and ILC from an unmanned aircraft. The Au- ment, launching from Vandenberg AFB,
Dover fabricating the envelope. The tonomous Real-time Ground Ubiqui- Calif., at 3:25 p.m. PDT on June 6. Still,
vehicle is expected to fly in 12 months. tous Surveillance-Infrared (Argus-IR) a target missile was not launched for
system is a follow-on to the Defense an intercept test in this exercise. “After
FAA Flies Scan Eagle UAVs Advanced Research Project Agency’s performing flyout maneuvers, the
Boeing subsidiary Insitu has provided Argus-IS program under which two-stage booster delivered an exoat-
the FAA with a Scan Eagle system for BAE Systems has built and flown a mospheric kill vehicle to a designated
research to help develop recommenda- 1.8-gigapixel electro-optical sensor pod point in space,” MDA said in a state-
tions for integrating unmanned aircraft able to downlink up to 65 “Predator- ment. “Initial indications are that all
into the U.S. airspace system. The like” video streams. Whereas Argus-IS components performed as designed.”
system, including two Scan Eagle small is a day-only sensor, Argus-IR will be Program officials will evaluate system
unmanned aircraft, has been delivered able to detect and track vehicles and performance based upon telemetry and
to the FAA’s William J. Hughes Tech- individuals at night. other data obtained during the test.
20 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst
SS/L Sets IPO
Loral Space & Communications
acknowledged the current security plan
is too restrictive for most operators and
europe
says its wholly owned affiliate Space as a result, only a trickle of flights has European Road Map Required
Systems/Loral has filed for an initial used the airport. “I have an open goal Europe’s key military aerospace manu-
public offering for up to 19.9% of SS/L’s of increasing flights into DCA,” he says. facturers are calling on their respective
common stock. Funds will be used to Government regulations permit up to governments to begin to consider their
finance further growth and expansion, 48 daily takeoffs or landings by general long-term aerospace defense require-
as well as to cover working capital and aviation aircraft at DCA, Delauter ments as a basis for collaboration. A
other general expenses. notes, but says, “We’re not remotely paper issued early June by the Aircraft
touching that [figure].” Using all the Sectoral Group (ASG) of the Aerospace
dCA Security Plans on Agenda slots he believes is “an obtainable goal.” and Defense Industries Association of
Dissatisfied with the lack of business Europe calls for establishing a “task
aircraft operations into Ronald Reagan Bombardier Buys neighbor force to prepare a vision and define
Washington National Airport (DCA), Bombardier plans to purchase ExelTech strategies and a road map to achieve
the Transportation Security Admin- Aerospace’s Saint-Laurent, Quebec, the vision.” Entitled “European Future
istration (TSA) plans to meet with facility and use it for Global 5000 and Air Power Systems in the 2035 Perspec-
stakeholders next month to discuss Global Express XRS business jet com- tive,” the paper also calls for the rapid
possibilities for changing the security pletions. Bombardier has been working implementation of “small pilot pro-
procedures into the close-in airport. on plans to expand its Global Completion grams in critical areas such as mapping
Speaking during the National Air Center in Montreal for a while, so when out the national coordinated approach.”
Transportation Association’s (NATA) ExelTech Aerospace declared bankrupt-
Air Charter Summit last week in Chan- cy, Bombardier jumped at the chance to French Eye BAE’s Mantis
tilly, Va., Brian Delauter, general man- buy the 115,000-sq.-ft.-facility, which is Dassault Aviation and Thales say they
ager of TSA’s general aviation branch, across the street from its own location. would be open to cooperation on BAE’s

BOEInG dEBUTS FIRST CARGOLUx 747-8F

Boeing has rolled out the first 747-8F in the colors of launch airline has been resolved through aerodynamic tweaks, not major structural
Cargolux and, despite recent test delays, says delivery remains on track changes.” Changes are mainly to the undercarriage doors, as well as
for the fourth quarter. the addition of flow modification devices to the flaps.
The second flight test aircraft, RC521, has resumed fuel burn tests Following completion of the modification and further progress on flight
following a delay caused by a ground collision with a parked tug. RC521 tests, Boeing says it is “working toward TIA [expanded type inspection
sustained damage to the No. 4 engine inlet and fan cowl while authorization].” RC501, the first test aircraft based at Moses Lake, Wash.,
being towed at Victorville, Calif., on June 3. The incident fol- is completing further flutter work. The third test aircraft, RC522, is at Palm-
lows a flap vibration issue thought to be a contributing dale, Calif., where it is being used to conduct interior and systems tests.
factor to a potential delay to certification. Six 747-8Fs have been produced with a further two in final assembly.
However, Boeing says, “We are making steady Boeing is also 95% complete on the design of the 747-8I passenger
progress in flight test. We recently completed flutter model; assembly of the first wing spars and panel has begun. “As-
testing and high-speed clearance. The trailing edge vi- sembly of the fuselage (Section 41) will begin in a couple weeks,” the
bration, affecting the inboard flaps when set at 30 deg., company adds.
BOeINg

aviationweek.com/awst aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 21

NEWS BREAKS
KOREAn LAUnCH FAILURE IMPACTS RUSSIA
Loss of South Korea’s second KSLV-1 launch vehicle, apparently to also built in South Korea. The KSLV-1 first stage, which also includes
an explosion 137 sec. after liftoff, bodes ill for Russia’s space launch structural elements in common with Angara, performed well during
plans as well. the first flight of the launch vehicle on Aug. 25, 2009. On that mission,
South Korean officials say the vehicle’s Russian-built first-stage stage separation occurred as planned, but half of the fairing enclos-
engine was to blame for the June 10 failure. That engine—the energo- ing the satellite atop the second stage failed to drop off (AW&ST
mash Rd-151—is a variant of the Rd-191M engine planned for the first Sept. 7, 2009, p. 28).
stage of Russia’s Angara 1.1 launch vehicle now in development. The failure on June 10 came after a malfunction with the KSLV-1
“The [KSLV-1] flew normally until 137.19 sec. after liftoff, when the launch pad—also built with Russian assistance—forced the Korean Aero-
communications with the ground tracking facilities were severed,” Ahn space Research Agency to postpone the attempt for a day. engineers
Byung-man, minister of education, science and technology, tells Korean from both nations inspected the 108-ft.-tall rocket after the pad’s fire-
reporters at the launch site in goheung. “The footage from the camera suppression system accidentally tripped about 2.5 hr. before launch,
installed on the upper part of the rocket suddenly brightened at that mo- spraying about 100 tons of chemically treated water toward the vehicle.
ment, which suggests that the rocket’s first stage exploded during flight.” Launch came at 5:01 p.m. local time June 10 (4:01 a.m. edT), and the
The Rd-151 was scheduled to burn for about 300 sec. before the rocket performed nominally until telemetry abruptly halted 137 sec.
South Korean-built solid-fuel second stage separated with the mis- later. South Korean officials say the Rd-151 lost thrust and the vehicle
sion’s payload, an experimental earth-observation satellite that was veered off course, before the loss of communications.

Mantis medium-altitude long-endurance Funds for Space, Security R&d The Mi-171M will feature a Klimov VK-
(MALE) unmanned aerial vehicle if it The European Commission has initi- 2500 turboshaft engine, modernized
could ensure European independence ated negotiations for 108 space and auxiliary power unit and main gearbox,
in this rapidly growing segment. French security research projects. The proj- as well as improved swashplate, main
armaments agency DGA recently ects, worth €324 million ($389 million), rotorhead and transmission design.
indicated that it was entering discus- include two space efforts—African de-
sions with General Atomics Aeronautical forestation monitoring and spacecraft
Systems to acquire Predator vehicles to
complement its fleet of EADS Harfangs
landing system accuracy and robust-
ness for exploration missions—and a
AsiA-pAcific
in Afghanistan. DGA said it has also maritime border security initiative. Cathay Sells Out of Haeco
received a firm offer from EADS for four NASA and the National Oceanic and Cathay Pacific Airways will sell its 15%
additional Harfangs, and admitted that Atmospheric Administration will be stake in Hong Kong Aircraft Engi-
a Predator purchase would depend on involved in the space projects. neering Co. to parent Swire Pacific
what sort of strings might be attached. and use the proceeds to develop its
DGA said the defense ministry’s invest- core aviation business. The transac-
ment committee had determined other
options for meeting the country’s MALE
russiA tion is valued at HK$2.62 billion ($335
million) and Cathay Pacific will earn
shortfall were too uncertain but ap- Malaysian MS-21 Money a profit of HK$1.83 billion. The money
peared to leave the door open to Mantis Malaysia’s Crecom Burj Bhd investment will be used to support investments in
fund has signed a preliminary agree- aircraft, products and services, as well
ESA Head Eyes Falcon 9 Lessons ment to buy 50 Russian MS-21 nar- as a new HK$5.5-billion cargo terminal
The implications of the maiden Falcon rowbodies. The deal between the fund at Hong Kong International Airport.
9 launch (see pp. 37 and 41) are not and MS-21 developer Irkut Corp. would
being lost on overseas space agencies. have a value of $5 billion if it is converted AirAsia x Plans IPO
European Space Agency director gen- to a firm order. Deliveries of the Pratt Malaysian long-haul budget airline
eral Jean-Jacques Dordain says there & Whitney geared turbofan-powered AirAsia X is planning an initial public
are lessons to be learned from the 150-210-seat airliners to the fund would offering in the second half of next year to
launch success, even though he notes begin in 2016, for leases to airlines. support expansion. Parent AirAsia plans
there is a big difference between the to restructure its business and create
U.S. and European contexts. Lessons Hip’s Grandchild independent entities for the different
learned are unlikely to concern the fi- Russian Helicopters has unveiled plans carriers operating under its umbrella.
nancing model used for Falcon 9—“I’m to add a new member to its best-selling
not sure European governments could Mil Mi-8/Mi-17 medium helicopter fam-
sustain a privately financed launch ily. The Mi-171M is due for its first flight Correction:
vehicle on their own,” says Dordain— in 2011 and to enter service in 2013. Rus- An article in the issue of June 7 (p. 34)
or the technological aspects, which he sian Helicopters, a holding that unites incorrectly listed the Boeing unit that will
says are based mainly on “technology the country’s rotorcraft industry, says it have a role in the Iridium Next contract
from the past.” However, the overall has seen a surge in Mi-17/171 customer awarded to Thales Alenia. Boeing’s
design is “definitely of interest” interest, in large part because of the Intelligence and Security Systems Mission
system’s performance in Afghanistan. Operations group will do the work.
22 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst
the symbol of
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ILA BerLIn AIr Show
The ILA Berlin Air Show that unfolded June 8-13 set a new record for exhibitors with
more than 1,150. “This is the most successful ILA we have ever had in 100 years,” says ilA CoverAGe ConTinueS:
Airbus CEO Tom Enders, who also serves as president of the German aerospace industry 30 Emirates order for 32 A380s sends
association, BDLI. The strong attendance comes despite the fact the exhibitors mostly shockwaves through competing airlines.
had to sign up in 2009, in the midst of a crisis. “That reflects the strong optimism of our 33 German aerospace and airline industries
industry,” Enders says. face a major headwind.
36 EADS courts Embraer for future coop-
MTG Compromise? rier has decided to swap two A330-300 eration, but an equity investment is not
German transport and economics/ orders (due for delivery in 2012-13) for planned.
technology ministry heads met during five A321ERs with the winglets to come 38 New German strategic space plan likely in-
ILA to try and iron out differences that off the line starting in 2013. Finnair plans cludes submetric resolution optical satellites.
are holding up approval of the Meteosat to phase out its Boeing 757s. The winglet 41 U.S. embarks on search for expanded inter-
Third-Generation weather satellite sys- upgrade should yield a 4% fuel burn edge national space cooperation.
tem. Transport ministry dissatisfaction over standard A321s. The move is a shot 42 German naval, CSAr helo requirements
with selection of a Thales Alenia Space- in the arm for Airbus, which is promot- draw fierce competitive interests.
led team to negotiate a contract for the ing the A321 as a logical Boeing 757 43 Boeing, Eurocopter join forces in advance
space segment of the €3.3-billion ($4-bil- replacement. The aircraft maker also of future Transport Helicopter effort.
lion) system threatens to delay the start booked several commitments beyond 46 future of tri-national Meads program is
of development. The transport ministry Emirates’s order for 32 A380s (see p. 30). once again under scrutiny.
represents Germany at Eumetsat, which TAM has added five more A350-900s
will own and operate MTG. European and bolstered its sizable A320 backlog would be based at Sigonella, Sicily.
Space Agency head Jean-Jacques Dor- by another 20 aircraft. Airbus also has Nominally, NATO is looking to buy eight
dain says the organization is negotiating convinced 737 operator Germania to air vehicles, but that number could
with Thales Alenia, Europe’s perennial switch to the A319 as part of its fleet change, along with that for associated
weather satellite supplier, to finds ways replacement plan. The first aircraft is to ground systems. The key for NATO is
to ensure that the deal does not kill be delivered in April 2011, with the 19-air- to be able to establish and maintain two
the chances for losing bidder, EADS craft fleet rollover completed by 2015. operational orbits, industry officials say.
Astrium, to obtain a meaningful work- If developments stick to the latest plan,
share and sustain its ability to mount a AGS Agenda the first two aircraft would be delivered
credible challenge in the future. Dordain The protracted process to put NATO’s in 2013, for testing in 2014 and initial
notes a similar approach was used for Alliance Ground Surveillance system operational capability in 2015.
the BepiColombo Mercury mission, won out to contract is now in its final phase,
by Astrium against Thales Alenia. Nego- with industry responding to the request Airborne Algae
tiation results will be sent to Eumetsat for proposals in the hope of gaining a go- EADS hopes biofuel derived from
on June 16 so member states can decide ahead around the time alliance leaders algae will get a boost in the next few
whether to approve the program at the meet in Lisbon in November. The center- years, driven in part by the first flight
council meeting set for June 21-22. piece of the AGS program is the U.S. Air of a Diamond Aircraft DA42 using
Force’s Global Hawk Block 40, with com- 100% of such a fuel. Jean Botti, EADS
Airbus Activity ponents also coming from others. Selex, chief technology officer, wants to gen-
Finnair is becoming the launch customer for instance, plans to deliver a wideband erate enough interest so airlines run
for the A321 winglets after Air New Zea- line-of-sight datalink and identification- small trials with 100% biofuel-powered
land in November launched the winglet friend-or-foe system, while EADS would aircraft on routes such as Paris-Tou-
upgrade on the A320. The Finnish car- work on the ground station. The UAVs louse and Hamburg-Frankfurt.

BuSy DAyS AT GroB AeroSpACe

Grob Aerospace is considering development of a tandem-seat Heitzmann says the aircraft would be used for Earth observation and be
version of the G120TP trainer and has revived its G850 high-altitude able to fly at around 78,000 ft.
observation program owing to interest from a Middle East customer. The core of Grob’s activity, though, remains the basic trainer market,
The company will not identify the customer, but Grob CEO Johann especially with the G120TP entered in several big competitions. India
is in the technical evaluation stage for a basic trainer, with a 75-aircraft
GrOB AIrCrAfT

order up for grabs; Indonesia may buy 16 aircraft, and other programs
are underway. Grob has teamed with Israel’s Elbit Systems to provide
the G120TP with a three-screen avionics suite.
Building on that effort, Grob is assessing a tandem-seat version of the
side-by-side G120TP, to capture more of the training market and keep
pilots in its aircraft once basic flight training is completed. Heitzmann
says the concept study, which also involves discussions with customers,
should be finished by year-end. If a go-ahead is given, the product could
be on the market in 2014-15.

24 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst

 WASHINGTON OUTLOOK
Edited by James R. Asker

Cuts Both Ways CEO Louis Gallois is taking heart from Christopher “Kit” Bond (Mo.), both
There is no joy in the U.S. space indus- Boeing’s aggressive campaign lobby- criticize Clapper as too close to Pen-
try as the Obama administration and ing and advertising against the Airbus tagon interests. Bond said, “While Jim
Congress skirmish over the proposal A330-based KC-X tanker offering. The has served our nation well, he lacks
to kill NASA’s Constellation program intensity of the lobbying signals Boe- the necessary clout with the president,
and follow the space shuttle with a fleet ing’s “nervousness,” Gallois says. “It is a has proven to be less than forthcom-
of commercial “space taxis” to take recognition that we are a threat.” ing with Congress, and has recently
astronauts to the International Space blocked our efforts to empower the
Station (ISS). After conceding that the Batting Third DNI, which is why at this time I’m not
$2.5 billion in the Fiscal 2011 budget President Barack Obama’s latest inclined to support him.”
request for its own Constellation termi- nominee to lead the Transportation
nation costs is “oversubscribed,” NASA Security Administration hears from Bookkeeping Imbroglio
has been warning contractors that they Washington tiMes/Landov FiLe Photo The Defense Department’s planning,
will have to tighten their belts, too. programming, budget and execution
“Most of these reductions will be imple- system is out of sync with warfighting
mented via reductions in workforce . . . operations and the Pentagon knows it,
beginning immediately,” Administrator according to a survey of inside officials
Charles Bolden tells Congress June 9, and top executives. The American
estimating that 2,500-5,000 jobs must Society of Military Comptrollers had
be cut this year. Meanwhile, Orbital Sci- consultancy Grant Thornton survey
ences and SpaceX, and the five compa- 1,014 civilian and uniformed and civilian
nies awarded stimulus-package funding defense bean counters. Among their
to develop commercial crew transport concerns is the rise of off-book, ad hoc
technology are also feeling the crunch. supplemental funding for the wars in
So far it looks like the best commercial Iraq and Afghanistan. “Such funds were
space will get is a continuing-funding
resolution this fall. After that the view is
‘TSA often finds itself not always calculated using full life-
cycle costs, leaving a legacy of unfunded
even murkier. For Fiscal 2012 the White
fighting the last operations and maintenance resource
House wants most federal agencies, terrorist battle.’ demands, which will plague defense
including NASA, to identify as potential budgets for years,” says the report. The
—Sen. Kay Bailey HutcHiSon
budget cuts “programs and subpro- survey notes workforce concerns, too.
grams that have the lowest impact on “The structure of the current multi-sec-
your agency’s mission and constitute at tor defense financial workforce needs to
least 5% of your agency’s discretionary senators about how unhappy they are be rebalanced to use fewer contractors
budget.” That is sure to set off fireworks with the TSA. Deputy FBI Director and more government employees,” say
in the congressional appropriations John S. Pistole is the third candidate many respondents.
panels, which created most of the pro- for a key job that has been vacant for
grams likely to be targeted. The lack of more than a year. At a Commerce Radio Silence
funding continuity makes it hard to at- Committee hearing, Kay Bailey The acrimony generated by FAA’s
tract private investment to commercial Hutchison (R-Texas), tells him, “The response to a slot swap between Delta
spaceflight, and retain the workforce TSA often finds itself playing catch-up, Air Lines and US Airways could be dis-
able to make it happen, contractors say. fighting the last terrorist battle and sipating after the regulator acquiesced
getting caught up in the trap of spend- to the airlines’ request for another 30
Revved Up ing hundreds of millions of dollars on days (until July 2) to respond to the
By one count, there are 13 different unproven equipment and programs.” ruling. This differs greatly from the air-
lobbying firms plus each contractor’s Chairman Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.) lines’ initial reaction to FAA’s decision,
in-house lobbyists engaging lawmak- advises that if Pistole seeks a model which demands divestiture of slots
ers on the Joint Strike Fighter engine of passenger frustration with TSA, he at New York LaGuardia Airport and
battle between Pratt & Whitney and a need go no farther than Washington Washington Reagan National Airport.
General Electric-Rolls Royce team. The Dulles International Airport. The deal would give Delta a dominant
independent Center for Public Integrity presence in New York and US Airways
says there are 75 lobbyists working on Shots Across the Bow a hub in Washington. Initially, the car-
defense issues at the firms engaged Obama’s nomination of Undersecre- riers claimed the FAA does not have
in the engine debate, of whom at least tary of Defense for Intelligence James jurisdiction in the matter and vowed
56 are former congressional staffers Clapper to be director of national intel- to go to court to overturn the deci-
or executive branch officials. Of those, ligence (DNI) encounters choppy seas sion (AW&ST May 10, p. 48). Now, the
at least 33 are registered to work on on Capitol Hill. The Senate Intelligence airlines could proceed with the legal
the engine issue specifically, accord- Committee’s chairman, Diane Fein- action, accept the FAA’s proposal or
ing to CPI. On another front, EADS stein (D-Calif.), and its top Republican, offer some other solution.
AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtionWeek&spAcetechnology/June14/21,201025
Advertisement

Aerospace and defense:

Accelerating global growth

The aerospace & defense industry now faces adversaries who are including the hiring of talent in
(A&D) is the largest exporter in often unpredictable and difficult engineering and other critical
the United States. But exports are to identify. Regional tensions in areas. Although domestic labor
only one measure of globalization. the Middle East and Asia keep remains a top political concern,
When we also consider the inter- defense equipment in demand. the United States was the third-
national supply chain and foreign US companies booked $38 billion largest recipient of foreign direct
direct investments, A&D ranks in in new defense orders in the most investment in the A&D industry
the middle among other industries. recent fiscal year, an amount that from 2000–2008. The top five
could potentially increase.¹ recipients of foreign direct invest-
The shift in wealth toward ment in the A&D industry were
emerging economies is changing Globalization also offers compa- India, China, United States,
the competitive landscape, and nies greater access to talent and Russia, and Mexico, respectively.
as A&D companies expand their labor. According to some esti-
footprint across the globe, a race mates, India is currently gradu- As globalization creates
to capitalize on rising opportuni- ating about as many engineers opportunities, it also introduces
ties has begun. These opportuni- as the United States, and China challenges that require new
ties, as well as the challenges of produces significantly more management tactics. Industry
globalization, are addressed in engineering and technology PhDs executives interviewed in the
PricewaterhouseCoopers’ new than the United States or India. PricewaterhouseCoopers’ report
report A&D Insights: Accelerating A&D companies cannot remain identified the following issues as
global growth. competitive by relying solely their top challenges:
on traditional sources of talent;
The report looks in detail at the companies must recruit the best • Protection of intellectual
Asia-Pacific region, for example, people from around the world. property
which is expected to account for • Cost and complexity
37 percent of the value of all new “I don’t think there’s a talent of export regulations
aircraft deliveries over the next 20 shortage, but I do think that there
• Ethics and compliance
years—nearly as much as North are particular societies and econo-
across cultures
America and Europe combined. mies that focus on different areas
“Who would have thought 20 of expertise,” said Tim Mahoney, • Increasing financial risk,
years ago that we would be able president and CEO of Honeywell particularly currency exchange
to sell aerostructure products Aerospace. “Our strategic plan is rate risk
to China, the Soviet Union, and to hire the best engineers around • Management of expanding
other countries that were closed the world …” offset requirements
markets? This has changed the
world tremendously,” said Gilles In 2008, foreign direct investment Intellectual property protection
Labbé, president and chief execu- by the top 50 global A&D compa- poses perhaps the most signifi-
tive officer of Héroux-Devtek. nies climbed to a record. While the cant barrier to globalization. In
search for low-cost manufacturing fact, many countries with the
Since the end of the Cold War, remains an important motivation, highest growth rates have the
international threats have changed research and development invest- weakest intellectual property laws
but not diminished. The world ments have increased significantly, and enforcement.

1 www.export.gov. U.S. Exports, Aerospace & Defense. April 2010.

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© 2010 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (a Delaware limited liability partnership)
or, as the context requires, the PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network, each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
air transport

Gaining Speed
Brighter picture emerges for airline industry,
although recovery still faces potential hurdles
Cathay Pacific Airways CEO Tony
Tyler says the Asia-Pacific sector “typi-
cally bounces back [from recession]
stronger and sooner than you think.”
AdriAn Schofield and robert WAll/berlin Asian carriers are also less reliant on
European routes than they used to be,

S
urging passenger and freight de- Europe’s challenges remain the big- thanks to improved intra-Asia markets
mand is propelling a dramatic gest risk to the industry’s upward tra- and increasing service to the Americas.
improvement in the financial out- jectory. So far, carriers in other regions “If one region [such as Europe] is limp-
look for the global airline industry. have remained relatively insulated from ing, there are usually others that are
Asian and U.S. carriers are lead- the European economic instability—or doing well.”
ing the turnaround, and even Eu- at least have been able to offset its ef- Cathay has seen particular strength
rope’s economic and volcano woes fects elsewhere. But executives worry in premium traffic, which “has a huge
should not be enough to derail a return that this could dampen the key trans- impact” since yields in the front of the
to profitability this year. pacific and transatlantic routes.
Just three months ago the Internation- Excessive capacity growth could also
al Air Transport Association (IATA) was be a threat, as airlines add more aircraft
predicting a third consecutive annual loss and launch new flights to take advantage
for airlines. Now, it believes 2010 will be of their newfound demand strength.
the industry’s first year in the black since IATA Chief Economist Brian Pearce says
2007. This steep upgrade aligns with air- that so far the booming demand growth
line reports that demand growth is ac- is staying ahead of capacity increases.
celerating as the year progresses. But if the pent-up demand ebbs later this
The latest $2.5-billion profit projec- year—as is likely—then rising capacity
tion still represents an anemic margin could dent load factors and yields.
for a sector with revenues of more than Air Canada CEO Calin Rovinescu
$540 billion. But the trend is moving in agrees there is “no question [the industry]
the right direction, allowing airlines in has seen a rebound” this year, although he
most regions to cautiously resume net- cautions that it is not yet time to declare
work growth and focus once again on victory. While traffic is strengthening, “the
fleet modernization. jury is still out on yields,” he says.
The extent of the improvement since The airline is watching the European
the previous update in March has sur- market closely, as it is launching a wave
prised forecasters, IATA Director Gen- of new transatlantic flights this summer.
eral Giovanni Bisignani acknowledged “The European malaise affects everyone,”
during the group’s annual general meet- Rovinescu says. Air Canada’s growth will
ing here June 7. “The global economy is be strongest on transpacific routes, al-
recovering from the depths of the finan- though he notes this is where the largest
cial crisis much more quickly than could cuts were made in the downturn.
have been anticipated,” he says. IATA While it is not adding any more air-
thought it would take at least three years craft this year, the airline is boosting
to recover the 14% revenue drop in 2009, capacity by up to 6% year-on-year by
but the industry has already made up increasing utilization of its existing
75% of the fall-off. fleet. Pearce says this trend could occur
However, the recovery is hardly uni- industry-wide, as airline fleets are gener-
form (see graph, p. 30). Airlines in North ally at historically low utilization levels. Strengthening premium traffic is helping
America and Asia Pacific were upgraded The Asia-Pacific region is forecast to to boost revenue for Cathay Pacific and
significantly in the latest IATA forecast, record both the largest profits and the other Asia-Pacific carriers.
highlighting that these regions are the greatest turnaround from last year’s
main engines of global growth. Mean- loss, according to IATA. The March
while, European airlines have seen their forecast predicted a $900-million col-
outlook worsen, thanks to the volcano- lective profit, but this has now been up-
related disruptions in April, strikes and a graded to $2.2 billion. Last year, carriers
fresh wave of economic uncertainty. in the region lost $2.7 billion.
28 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst
plane are typically four or five times eries, which proves the airline made the subsidiary Jetstar Airways as much as
greater than those in economy. Cargo right call on its aircraft order deferrals, Virgin Blue and other Australian LCCs.
has also come back very strongly. says CEO Alan Joyce. North American airlines also saw a
Tyler believes capacity growth in Last year Qantas was forced to slow significant upgrade in the latest IATA
this region is so far being kept in check. its aircraft delivery schedule in response forecast. This region is now expected to
While many carriers are adding flights, to the industry downturn. The airline achieve a profit of $1.9 billion in 2010,
others—such as Japan Airlines—are canceled some Boeing 787 orders and versus the $1.8-billion loss projected just
still retrenching. “I’m not worried at delayed 737 and Airbus A380 deliveries. three months ago.
this point about a surge in capacity,” Now, with the industry recovery gath- This echoes recent comments from
he says. ering momentum, Qantas’s revised de- U.S. airline analysts. JP Morgan’s Ja-
When the Asian market was at its na- livery schedule—including five A380s mie Baker, for example, believes “man-
dir last year, airlines desperately sought during the next year—has proven to be ageable fuel [costs], tight supply, incre-
to slow their aircraft orders. Cathay, for a good match to demand trends, Joyce mental revenue streams, disciplined
example, deferred Boeing 777 and Air- says. The carrier’s prediction of when managements and rapidly recovering
bus A330 orders by several months. Ty- demand would return “has come true demand” could point to a sustained run
ler says the carrier would probably have quite precisely.” of profitability for carriers.
delayed even more if manufacturers had While mainline and premium demand William Greene of Morgan Stanley
been willing. However, he believes the re- is continuing to improve, Joyce acknowl- notes that U.S. major airlines are well-
cent demand recovery has proved the edges the carrier is seeing some weak- placed versus their LCC rivals due to

JoePries AviAtion.net
deferrals were appropriate. “I’m glad we ness in the Australian leisure market. their greater reliance on international
didn’t postpone longer than we did . . . it Low-cost carrier (LCC) Virgin Blue and premium travel, and in complete con-
has worked out quite well.” Airlines is alarmed enough about the trast to last year, these areas “are likely
The global rebound in passenger de- leisure demand outlook to drastically to drive revenue strength this summer.”
mand is also arriving at the right time reduce its profit outlook. Joyce says Europe is the only region expected
for Qantas Airways’ new aircraft deliv- this trend is affecting Qantas’s low-cost to remain in the red in 2010. It was

aviationweek.com/awst aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 29

air transport
also the only region that had its 2010 to record a $100-million profit versus ous prediction of 5.6%. On the cargo side,
outlook downgraded, to a loss of $2.8 a $600-million loss in 2009. The profit traffic is expected to increase by 18.5%,
billion. This was not a surprise, as Eu- for African carriers is also estimated at versus the 12% rise projected earlier. Pas-
ropean airlines bore 70% of the overall $100 million, reversing a loss of the same senger and cargo yield are both forecast
industry revenue loss resulting from amount in 2009. This would be the re- to increase by 4.5%, up from 2% for pas-
the ash-related cancellations. senger and 3.1% for cargo. While
Currency worries, strikes and traffic did drop markedly in
strike threats are also taking Bouncing Back April due to the Iceland volcano,
their toll, IATA says. IATA sees most airline industry regions May figures show that air travel
Lufthansa CEO Wolfgang returning to black – although Europe lags has bounced back quickly.
Mayrhuber says the robust re- $3.0 IATA’s Pearce notes that
bound for Asian airlines means 2.0 2.2 while the swings in the forecast
they will be better able to invest U.S. $billions 1.9 from losses to profits appear
in new aircraft for fleet growth, 1.0
0.9
drastic, movements are mag-
while in regions like Europe 0.5 0.1 nified because the industry’s
0.0
new aircraft are predominantly -0.6 profits are so thin compared to
replacing older equipment. -1.0 its revenue. For example, what
Mayrhuber notes that the -2.0
seems like a big shift in the lat-
relative strengths of the vari- -2.8 -2.7 -2.6 est forecast is driven by a rev-
ous regions can shift quickly. -3.0 enue increase of less than 5%.
Last year, for example, the ques- The pendulum swings in
tion was “what [carriers in the]
-4.0 -4.3 profits and losses would obvi-
Americas were doing wrong, Europe North America Asia-Pacific Latin America Middle East ously not be as evident if un-
and what we were doing right in 2009 2010 (forecast) derlying profit margins were
Europe.” The regional balance Source: International Air Transport Association higher. Bisignani suggests that
“goes in cycles—we will also see if industry revenues hit $1 tril-
a rebound in Europe,” he says. lion by 2023 as predicted, the
Meanwhile, airlines in the three re- gion’s first profitable year since 2002. industry could achieve profits of $100
maining regions saw their profit fore- Revenue improvement is the main billion—or a margin of 10%. That is not
casts improve compared to the March driver of the forecast upgrades. IATA ex- as far-fetched as it may seem, he says.
estimates. Latin American carriers are pects industry revenue to rise to $545 bil- “Before the recession at least 10 IATA
now expected to post a $900-million prof- lion in 2010, up from $483 billion in 2009. members had 10% [profit] margins . . . we
it, up from a $500-million profit in 2009. Globally, passenger traffic is forecast to must make this a much broader reality,”
Middle Eastern airlines are projected rise by 7.1% in 2010, compared to the previ- Bisignani stresses.  c

the one
777-300ERs on firm order that are part-
ly used to replace earlier 777s and the
29-strong A330-200 fleet, but which will
also support the planned growth over
the next few years.
Huge A380 order stuns airlines that must The airline is not alone with its expan-
sion plans. Qatar Airways has outstand-
compete with Dubai-based superjumbo fleet ing orders for nine Boeing 777-300ERs,
one 777F, 35 787-9s, 17 Airbus A320s,
JenS flottAu and robert WAll/berlin three A321s, 20 A350-800s, 40 A350-

e
900s, 20 A350-1000s and five A380s.
mirates’ huge order for more Air- slots for the aircraft until 2015. Emirates Etihad Airways will take delivery
bus A380s is leaving competitors plans to retire its first A380 only in 2020. of two Boeing 777-200LRs, five 777-
puzzled about how to react to the The order announcement was fitting- 300ERs, two 777Fs, 30 787-8s, 10 A380s,
ever-increasing market presence of ly staged in Berlin in front of German 25 A350-1000s, two A330-200Fs and
carriers in the Middle East. Chancellor Angela Merkel, with the 10th four A330-300s.
Emirates last week placed an order Emirates A380 placed as a backdrop. The International Air Transport Asso-
for 32 A380s at the Berlin Air Show, the The scene illustrated the carrier’s lob- ciation (IATA) expects traffic in the Mid-
largest-ever single order for the aircraft bying efforts to get more liberal access dle East to increase by 19.5% after 8.5%
and the fourth repeat order by the airline. to Germany where it is currently limited in 2009. Carriers in the region will add
The deal raises the number of A380s on to serving four destinations—Frankfurt, 15.9% more capacity, actually improving
firm order at the airline to 90, more than Dusseldorf, Hamburg and Munich. Luf- load factors while continuing their fast
a third of Airbus’s total orderbook of 234 thansa, which parked its first A380 right growth. Last year’s growth came at the
for the aircraft. The Dubai-based airline next to the Emirates aircraft at the show, expense of sharply reduced yields, and
will have all of its A380s in service by is strongly lobbying against allowing its it will be the main challenge for the car-
2017, if Airbus can stick to the contractu- rival easier market access. riers to keep on growing while bringing
ally agreed delivery dates this time. The In addition to the A380s, Emirates fares up to more sustainable levels. Com-
deal means Airbus has no open delivery has 70 A350s and a further 18 Boeing bined, Middle Eastern airlines posted a
30 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst
GET REAL
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See the video at www.KC-45now.com.
air transport
$600-million net loss last year, but IATA the focus now is on ramping up produc- 2020 or later because the existing airport
predicts they will take a small profit of tion,” says Enders. is being expanded so much.
$100 million this year. Qatar and Etihad To accommodate Emirates’ fleet ac- Even Gulf Air, the weakest of the re-
both admit they are still in the red as they quisition, government officials in Dubai gion’s airlines, is looking at more aircraft.
launch more routes and grow. are expected to, in principle, OK another This summer, the carrier expects to make
Emirates’ competitors were caught by $3-4.5-billion for expansion of Dubai In- a type selection for its future regional jet
surprise, particularly by the size of the ternational Airport to meet long-term fleet, which is becoming increasingly im-
order. Lufthansa executives expected growth. Activity underway is lifting ca- portant as part of the Bahrain-based air-
the carrier to buy another 3-4 aircraft, pacity to 75 million passengers per year line’s makeover plans. Frontrunners are
industry sources say. Lufthansa’s execu- by the end of 2012. The latest effort now Bombardier’s CSeries and an Embraer
tives, like their colleagues at other ma- under discussion would add capacity for offering. Formal bids have not been sub-
jor carriers in Europe, Asia and North 15 million more passengers to meet pro- mitted, but CEO Samer Majali expects
America, are now facing the question jections through the end of the decade, the fleet to eventually grow to 10 aircraft.
of how to compete with such a huge says Paul Griffiths, CEO of Dubai Air- Gulf Air operates two Embraer 170 re-
long-haul fleet. So far, Germany is one ports. gional jets on dry lease and will add two
of several countries trying to protect The approval now being sought is 190s soon. Those are being used partly
their airlines by restrictive traffic rights. for the strategic plan and development as a test case to determine the optimum
Qatar CEO Akbar Al-Bakr accuses the of detailed implementation blueprints. regional jet size for Gulf Air’s needs. The
Canadian government of shielding na- Financing would flow later. The move aircraft are on three-year leases, which
tional carrier Air Canada from more comes as Dubai Airports’ other big proj- might be extended depending on when
competition by not allowing Qatar and ect, Al Maktoum International or World the airline can field the new aircraft type.
other Gulf carriers to increase frequen- Central Airport, is set to begin operations Gulf Air also had considered the Mit-
cies and services into the country. on June 27. The initial flight activity with subishi Regional Jet, but now deems it
Lufthansa CEO Wolfgang Mayrhuber one runway will be limited to freight op- too small. Meanwhile, the airline con-
says he considers Emirates’ fourfold in-
crease in profits last year to be a “small
miracle.” In his view, it is impossible for
Emirates to reach such a profit margin
based on its business model of con- Emirates last week took delivery of its 10th Airbus
necting long-haul routes with long-haul A380 and intends to add 80 more to its fleet
routes. If Mayrhuber really believes through 2017.
that, then Lufthansa should look for a
better CEO, says Emirates President
Tim Clark.
The deeper accusation behind the
comments is that European carriers
widely believe the Emirates model can
only work with the help of extensive gov-
ernment subsidies. That claim is reject-
ed by the carrier which, unlike others in
the region, publishes audited annual re-
ports. EADS CEO Louis Gallois says he
has deep respect for the way Emirates
is managed and for its success. He is im-
pressed by the economic performance.
In Gallois’ view, the order was the acid
test for the A380, as it was the first or-
der for the aircraft Emirates has placed
since it took delivery of its initial A380. erations—the first operator has not yet tinues efforts to reduce the size of its
Airbus CEO Thomas Enders views it as been identified. Passenger operations are widebody fleet. It has already retired
a strong sign of confidence in the pro- expected in March 2011, although specific five A340s and expects to phase out the
gram. But with 80 more A380s due for airlines also have yet to be named. How- remaining four, leaving A330s to handle
Emirates alone in the next seven years, ever, carriers new to operations to Dubai widebody needs. Five older A320s have
it is more crucial than ever for Airbus to are seen as strong candidates. also been removed from the fleet.
succeed in ramping up A380 production Al Makhtoum is slated to eventually Gulf Air is adjusting its network as the
as planned. The manufacturer is sched- grow to five runways, one fewer than fleet changes. Shanghai and two Indian
uled to hand over 20 of the aircraft this first scheduled. Griffiths notes that plan- destinations have been shuttered. In-
year; seven have already been delivered. ning showed that greater runway spacing stead, Medina, Saudi Arabia, has been
Emirates has been pushing Airbus to means more flights can be handled with added, while Alexandria, Egypt, and
also develop a larger A380 version, the five runways than with six more closely Aleppo, Syria, have gone from seasonal
-900. That was not part of the deal, as spaced. The airport is supposed to even- to permanent fixtures in the airline’s
“it was not on offer, but Airbus is aware tually handle 160 million passengers and network.
of the fact that we would be interested,” 12 million metric tons of freight annually. Cutting costs has also become a core
Clark says. Clark recently predicted Emirates will tenet of Majali’s goal of making Gulf Air
“We will one day build the -900, but not move from Dubai International until a sustainable operation by around 2012.
32 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst
 times of Uncertainty
In the past 10 months, the airline has
shed 1,000 staff via voluntary depar-
tures and hiring freezes. Although fuel
costs have risen, total expenditures have
fallen 12.5% in the past three months.
The airline also has been trying to
Germany’s budget cuts threaten defense
improve service levels and instill more spending, leave airlines with a €1-billion bill
punctual behavior in its employees. Both
matters caused problems last year, and to JenS flottAu, robert WAll and MichAel A. tAvernA/berlin

t
that end, an executive has been appoint-
ed to further smooth service interactions. he German aerospace and air-
T assert that the decision will lead to a
Moreover, discussions have begun line industries face a major massive shift in traffic flows away from
with Bahrain’s sovereign wealth fund headwind as Berlin slashes its Germany, putting the nation’s aviation
Mumtalakat about rebuilding some of spending plan and introduces industry at a serious disadvantage. And
the maintenance, repair and overhaul new fees to reduce the country’s with traffic moving away from Germany,
capability that was lost when Abu Dhabi budget deficit. expected tax revenues could be far lower
withdrew from Gulf Air, and Gulf Air- Germany’s €15-billion ($18.1-billion) than expected.
craft Maintenance Co. became part of cost-cutting move, which is threaten- “For German airlines, this is nothing
Abu Dhabi Aircraft Technologies. ing aerospace projects and airlines’ short of a catastrophe,” says Air Berlin
Separately, Air Arabia—the Sharjah, revenue prospects, is only the latest in CEO Joachim Hunold. Low-fare carrier
United Arab Emirates-based low-fare a series of budget actions being taken in Germanwings says it will watch traf-
carrier—is launching another subsidiary, Europe as the region grapples with its fic development closely and may move
this time to build its operations out of Jor- debt problems. its main base from Cologne to Maas-
dan. The move follows the expiration of As its biggest and most concrete proj- tricht, Netherlands, about a 1-hr. drive
ect, the government plans to introduce a away. Germanwings has 67 routes from
passenger tax in 2011. Receipts are to to- Cologne-Bonn Airport and is by far the
tal around €1 billion and are to be taken biggest operator.
from all passengers departing and arriv- “This is the worst kind of short-sight-
ing in Germany. German air transport ed policy irresponsibility,” says IATA
lobbying groups believe average tickets CEO Giovanni Bisignani. “It’s a cash-
could cost up to €15 more if the tax is grab by a cash-strapped government.
implemented. The government says the Painting it green adds insult to injury.
fee will be phased out once the European There will be no environmental benefit
emission trading system (ETS) is intro- from the economic damage caused.” In
duced in 2012, and is also labeling it as his view, the tax will do “absolutely noth-
an “eco-tax” in spite of the fact that the ing” for the environment. Also, “this tax
income will be used for the general bud- is a body blow to the weak economy and
get and is not purpose-bound. a fragile industry.”
The plans sent shocks through the Bisignani stresses that “even as a
airline industry, which is trying to re- cash-grab, the proposed tax makes no
cover from its worst downturn ever. sense. The Dutch government tried to
Four German air transport associa- raise €300 million with a similar tax. It
tions wrote a joint letter to Transport cost the Dutch economy €1.2 billion in lost
Minister Peter Ramsauer demanding business. Why repeat past mistakes?”
that he vote against the federal savings But there is still uncertainty over the
package to protect the sector from seri- full damage the German budget action
ous financial harm. The associations say will represent. While airlines know they
GerArd isAACson
they are “highly irritated” by the plans, face a €1-billion annual bill, defense and
a government decree that granted Royal and point out that they are already pay- aerospace companies are still uncertain
Jordanian exclusive rights from Amman. ing 100% of the infrastructure cost and where the ax may fall. However, indus-
To meet local ownership rules, Air there is also an environmental element try officials warn that new projects and
Arabia has partnered with the Tantash in the landing fee system that rewards research-and-technology activities are
Group in the joint venture, which joins low-emission aircraft. particularly vulnerable, despite a gov-
Air Arabia Maroc and Air Arabia Egypt Lufthansa CEO Wolfgang Mayrhuber ernment commitment to protect R&D.
as arms of Air Arabia, the Middle East’s earlier this month suggested that Europe EADS CEO Louis Gallois says that
largest low-fare carrier. Air Arabia Jor- delay the introduction of the ETS by a during this precarious period it will be
dan is that country’s first low-fare airline. year to compensate for the costs of the critical for government and industry to
CEO Adel Ali says, “At a time when the four-day shutdown of European airspace work closely together. He worries that
global and regional economy continues in April due to the volcanic ash cloud. European states may cut budgets on
to demonstrate strong signs of sus- Now, the opposite is happening, and the different cooperative programs, thereby
tained recovery, we are confident of the industry is burdened with more fees than damaging a range of activities.
long-term growth opportunities” of the a year earlier. And the €1-billion bill is “We are ready for this dialogue,” says
business. Air Arabia has not announced much more than the expected €300 mil- Gallois, signaling a willingness to help
when the new venture will begin com- lion in expenses through ETS. trim spending in some areas if major
mercial operations.  c The airline and tourism associations turmoil can be avoided.
aviationweek.com/awst aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 33
 AIR TRANSPORT
The defense community in particu- ers said here. Johann-Dietrich Woerner, man decision will serve as an example;
lar is worried about mounting financial head of German aerospace center DLR, and indeed, so far no country has sig-
pressures. In addition to the budget said it was decided during cabinet dis- naled a desire to roll back or scale down
cuts, the government is shifting fund- cussions on the budget this month that any of the missions committed under the
ing within the defense ministry to cover the cutbacks should not affect R&D agency’s €10-billion, three-year spending
Airbus Military A400M cost overruns, and education because of the negative plan approved in December 2008.
and operational bills in Afghanistan are impact they might have on growth. In fact, he notes, the Spanish gov-
mounting. If the government follows through on ernment has authorized ESA to raise
“The German defense industry is this commitment, Germany will be able debt if necessary to maintain spending
facing difficult times,” says Diehl De- to maintain its space ambitions, which levels. Dordain says he has instructed
fense CEO Claus Gunther. Efforts to call for continuing the steady ramp-up program managers to take steps—in
consolidate the federal budget in com- in spending begun before Angela Merkel addition to a two-year spending freeze
bination with higher spending to fund became chancellor and embarking on ordered early this year—to avoid a pay-
operations will likely leave a lot less expensive Earth science, technology and ments crunch.
money for future investment, he notes. exploration endeavors, notably a lunar However, industry officials say the se-
That will affect more than the domestic mission (see p. 38). riousness of the debt situation in many
market. “We are often asked abroad if Juergen Meyer, director general of regions makes it likely that spending will
the systems we are offering are used at the economics and trade ministry (the somehow be affected. “We have to ex-
JOEPRIES AVIATION.NET

Lufthansa was hoping June would be a month of celebration with the start of service of its Airbus A380.
But a German government move to impose an air ticket tax will provide a major headwind to the carrier.

home. And if not, we have a problem.” DLR’s supervising agency), says total pect some drop-off in civil space expen-
But Gunther also sees opportunities German space spending is now running ditures in Europe; the question is only
if the government goes ahead with its at €1.5 billion a year, two-thirds of which how much,” says Evert Dudok, head of
plan to reduce the size of the armed is financed by the economics ministry. EADS Astrium’s Satellites Div.
forces—if at the same time these small- Industry executives are cautiously Dordain admits that Italy’s situation
er forces are better equipped. Diehl has optimistic the government will adhere may be particularly difficult, with large
a variety of pending projects that are to the commitment. “Let’s wait and investments in ExoMars and the Inter-
linked directly to the availability of fed- see,” says OHB System CEO Berry national Space Station on the agenda
eral funds. So far, he believes, Diehl can Smutny. However, Smutny notes that this year. But he notes that not all com-
act from a position of strength, but that military space is not covered by the mitments need be made right away.
may change if it falls behind on investing pledge. “We’re extremely concerned The biggest question mark is France,
in what it considers to be crucial tech- about cuts in the military budget,” he which accounts for the biggest share of
nology. says. Likely milspace repercussions in- civil expenditures and half of all mil-
Exactly how the budget-cutting clude a stretchout in procurement of the space outlays. Mark Pircher, who heads
measure will affect spending is still not SARLupe 2 radar satellite constellation the Toulouse facility of French space
defined, though. However, one senior (Sarah) and in particular the second- agency CNES, says the agency’s commit-
industry official warns, “I have a bad generation milcom system. ment to raise ESA contributions and ex-
feeling in my stomach” about what is to The German position is important pand national program spending, made
come. because the nation is the second larg- early this year, still stands. However, a
Compounding the issue is a general est contributor to the European space recent three-year freeze on government
modernization review now underway. program, one of the three top milspace spending, with no allowance for inflation
It is expected to be completed around spenders, and a chief backer of aero- and the end of economic stimulus pro-
year-end and could lead to a further re- nautics research initiatives aimed at grams, is an ill portent.
allocation of financial resources. improving the cost efficiency and en- “We think all new French milspace
Despite the overall negative fis- vironmental friendliness of European undertakings, including early warning
cal tone, the German government has aircraft. and [electronic intelligence], will be at
pledged to maintain space and aero- European Space Agency head Jean- risk,” says Fritz Merkle, a board mem-
nautics research spending, space lead- Jacques Dordain says he hopes the Ger- ber at OHB. c
34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 14/21, 2010 AviationWeek.com/awst
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 air transport

Alliance Revisited
craft came five years or more later than
a re-engined A320, we would be in favor
of re-engining,” the carrier’s CEO Wolf-
gang Mayrhuber said last week.
EADS courts Embraer for future cooperation, Gallois also points at the fact that
“there is a possibility to re-engine the
but an equity investment is not planned 737,” indicating that Airbus’s main com-
petitor may chose the same path. But
Jens Flottau and RobeRt Wall/beRlin even if Boeing went ahead with an all-
new aircraft, as some in the industry

E
E
ADS is exploring options for co- Curado—are also personal friends.) believe is quite possible, he is not overly
operating with Brazilian aircraft Gallois declined to specify which pro- concerned. “To launch an aircraft sig-
manufacturer Embraer, as the grams he has in mind for a partnership nificantly better than the A320, you need
European company closes in on with Embraer, but indicated that the two new engine technology such as the open
key decisions for its commercial sides are already talking. He also notes rotor.” And Gallois believes that this will
aircraft strategy. that cooperation is a good way to limit not become available until around 2025
“I would be extremely happy to part- investment when it comes to new proj- at the earliest.
ner with Embraer,” EADS CEO Louis ects. Chief Financial Officer Hans-Peter The EADS CEO concedes that with
Gallois said at last week’s ILA Berlin Air Ring says EADS is not considering be- several new aircraft projects on the ho-
Show. “We are eager to find ways to co- coming an Embraer shareholder again rizon such as the Comac C919, the Bom-
operate.” Gallois pointed out that EADS and that such a step is “not part of the bardier C Series and the Russian MS-21,
and Airbus think highly of Embraer’s discussions.” “we know that we are going to the end
senior management team, particularly Embraer, like Airbus, is still studying of the duopoly.” But Gallois knows that
CEO Frederico Curado. what to do next in its commercial aircraft the duopoly was an exception rather
EADS and Embraer already have portfolio. The company is in the process than normal, since “until 1996 we were
some common history. The European of deciding whether it makes sense to re- three [including McDonnell Douglas].”
aerospace group inherited a 2% stake engine its current Embraer 170/190 fam- He also believes that “certainly they [the
in Embraer from its French predeces- ily or if it should go ahead with a more smaller new competitors] will take their
sor Aerospatiale-Matra that the latter risky proposal to develop an all-new share of the market, but it is not easy
bought to make inroads into the Bra- aircraft that would target the current to destabilize Airbus and we will not
zilian defense market and to ensure Airbus A320/Boeing 737 market. While be nice to them.” And Gallois is aware
participation in defense programs, par- Embraer says it will likely know more that unlike the C919, the Russian nar-
ticularly Brazil’s proposed F-X project. about its future path by the end of the row body MS-21 has not been formally
The program was canceled in 2005 and year, industry sources indicate that the launched yet.
EADS subsequently sold its small stake firm’s confidence about building a larger To better balance EADS’ portfolio be-
in 2007. aircraft is rising. tween the civil and defense sectors, Gal-
Since then, there have been on-and Separately, Gallois points out that lois notes the company’s intent to make
off-talks about cooperation in several “we have not decided to re-engine the acquisitions in the defense and services
areas. Executives on both sides have A320.” And Chief Technology Officer fields, particularly in the U.S. “We need
talked about partnering in a new com- Jean Botti says that “the jury is still them for our vision 2020,” he says. That
mercial aircraft program, but with both out there” about whether such a step strategy sees the group making around
still evaluating their strategic options makes sense. “It’s a very complex deci- 50% of its revenues from the Airbus busi-
no conclusions have been drawn. (It sion.” However, it would be supported ness and the other half in defense and
should be noted that the CEOs of Air- by Lufthansa, one of Airbus’s most im- services. Defense currently contributes
bus and Embraer—Thomas Enders and portant customers. “If an all-new air- around 25% to EAD’s overall revenues. c

EADS’s main subsidiary Airbus and Brazilian manufacturer

Embraer supply aircraft to New York-based JetBlue Airways.
GERARd IsAACson

36 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst

SPACE

New Game
Next up for SpaceX is first flight
of its Dragon cargo and crew capsule
Irene Klotz/Kennedy Space center

S
pace Exploration Technologies, plan and enabling it to move forward,” “We achieved a near bulls-eye on the
the poster child of commercial says Deputy Administrator Lori Garver, target—about 99.9 percent on the peri-
space advocates and the whipping a prime architect of NASA’s new policy. gee and about 101 percent on the apogee,”
boy of its foes, is girding for a sec- SpaceX plans to ship its second Fal- Musk says. “We would have been excited
ond major hurdle this summer in con 9 to Florida in July, and launch later to have the first stage work or get some of
its quest to deliver cargo and crew to the this summer with the first full-up version our way through the second stage.”
International Space Station, following a of the Dragon capsule the company hopes Pending NASA’s approval, Musk
successful debut flight of the Falcon 9 will one day carry astronauts to the ISS. wants to attempt docking at the station
rocket on June 4. That flight is the first of three demonstra- with the second COTS flight, keeping
That flight changed the environment tion missions under SpaceX’s $278-mil- the third mission as a backup. That
in the ongoing debate over NASA’s plans lion COTS contract with NASA, a precur- raises the stakes for Dragon’s debut
to switch from its in-house Constellation sor to its $1.6-billion, 12-flight contract to flight.
Program to commercial vehicles like the deliver cargo to the space station. “For COTS-1, the gating factor is
Falcon 9 for human transport to low SpaceX Chief Executive Elon Musk not going to be the rocket,” Musk says.
Earth orbit. Henceforth, opponents of says it will take about a month to digest “The rocket’s done. COTS-1 demo will
the new plan won’t be able to say the data collected during the 9.5-min. flight be first launch of an operational Dragon
commercial alternative is untested. of the first Falcon 9, which put a Dragon capsule, so there are a lot of things that
“We consider this to be a huge mile- cargo module structural test article into are going to have to work, everything
stone in affirming the COTS (Commer- a 250-km. (155-mi.) circular orbit at an from the heat shield to the engines to
cial Orbital Transportation Services) inclination of 34.5 deg. avionics, all the software”

The SpaceX Falcon 9 lifts off from Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral AFS on its first flight, at the same time giving a boost to the Obama
administration’s call for commercial crew transport to low Earth orbit.

BeN Cooper/AW&ST

AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & spAce technology/June 14/21, 2010 37

SPACE
Also on the agenda for the next flight Musk says his firm is “doing pretty Powered by nine SpaceX liquid oxy-
will be a shakedown of the worldwide te- well from a cash standpoint,” turning a gen/RP-1 Merlin engines, the heavily in-
lemetry network SpaceX is setting up profit for the past three years and with strumented Falcon 9 lifted off 15 min. be-
for the Dragon. additional customers about to sign or fore the end of the 4-hr. launch window.
“We’ve got ground stations in Aus- announce contracts for Falcon launches. It was delayed by a telemetry issue with
tralia, South Africa and we’re talking to That’s in addition to the $2.5 billion in the rocket’s flight termination system,
the (NASA) TDRS network,” Musk says, contracts already in hand. a sailboat in the launch-danger zone
adding that Dragon preparations are and an automated abort seconds before

BeN Cooper/AW&ST
about 95 percent complete, and conced- liftoff when computers detected a high
ing “that last 5 percent can sometimes pressure reading in one of the engines.
take longer than you think. We’ll prob- Engineers determined the rocket was
ably launch in the mid- to late summer, ” in good shape to fly, reset the computer
The successful flight of Falcon 9 may parameter and proceeded with launch
free up money held in reserve for the at 2:45 p.m. EDT.
company to flesh out preliminary de- Television cameras provided dramatic
signs for a launch escape system for views, relayed through a webcast, of the
Dragon so that it can carry crew. Musk ascent, first-stage separation and ignition
says he has shelved plans for a tradi- of the second stage powered by a single
tional tractor tower escape system in Merlin engine—which began an unex-
favor of putting engines directly into pected roll halfway through the burn.
the Dragon spacecraft. “It didn’t affect orbit insertion or
“It makes the whole thing considerably delta-v, but that is something definitely
lighter and there’s less to go wrong,” he that we want to investigate to make sure
says. “We also have the ability to abort there’s nothing potentially more signifi-
all the way to orbit insertion. [With] the cant,” Musk says.
launch escape tower approach, you have A shock wave envelops the dummy Dragon Also on the company’s checklist is find-
to toss off shortly after second-stage igni- capsule as the nine-engine first stage push- ing out why the first stage didn’t survive
tion [due to weight], so you actually don’t es it through the clouds. SpaceX claimed a re-entry and parachute into the ocean.
even have it for most of your flight.” “near bulls-eye” for its first Falcon 9 flight. Though the company ultimately is plan-
Musk says the engines in a push-off ning on a completely reusable system,
escape system can double as a propul- “I think this bodes very well for com- “our current business plan doesn’t as-
sive landing system, enabling Dragon mercial space,” Musk said after Falcon 9 sume any reusability,” Musk says. “We’ll
to land on the ground and saving the flew. “It helps vindicate the approach that get a lot of good data and give it another
expense and time of a water recovery. we’ve taken and shows that even a small try on our next flight.”  c
The company had hoped NASA would company like SpaceX can make a real
exercise a $300-million addendum to its difference.” With Michael A. Taverna in Berlin.
COTS contract for design work on the
launch escape system, but with new

reverse Course
players in the commercial crew trans-
port game, that seems unlikely. Instead,
SpaceX, Boeing and other firms are look-
ing at the $6 billion the Obama admin-
istration wants to put in NASA’s budget
over the next five years for fixed-price
contracts to fly crew to the space station.
German strategic space plan likely to include
“We never exercised [the human-flight submetric resolution optical satellites
option known as COTS-D] because we
didn’t have budget to do it,” says NASA’s MIchael a. taverna/BerlIn

G
associate administrator for exploration,
Doug Cooke. “Our focus was on Constel- erman space leaders are look- member at German aerospace center
lation. Enough time has passed; there are ing to reinforce their strong po- DLR, confirmed here that a major thrust
new players and we’d probably run into sition in space radar and boost of the new strategic plan is likely to be de-
protest issues if we didn’t run a competi- budding satellite communica- velopment of an optical imaging satellite
tion. Competition tends to get you best tions and robotics know-how system to complement DLR’s know-how
value for the government.” while forging new capabilities in optical in radar imaging—in particular, to supply
Also on the SpaceX drawing board is imaging, environmental monitoring and metadata for three-dimensional fusion
an upgraded Falcon 9 rocket and plans space exploration. of radar and optical data. Three Ger-
for what Musk calls “a super heavy-lift” Specifics are expected to be detailed in man radar imaging systems are in place
rocket it wants to develop in partnership space strategy and defense white papers or in development—the 1-meter resolu-
with NASA, which is under orders from to be issued toward year-end. However, tion TerraSAR-X commercial satellite; a
President Barack Obama to decide on a implementation will depend on funding. companion spacecraft, Tandem-X, to be
heavy-lift launch vehicle for deep-space So far, civil space spending at least seems orbited on June 24, with a unique 3D ra-
exploration by 2015. assured, despite big German budget cuts dar imaging intelligence (imint) capabil-
“NASA seems really excited about the announced last week (see p. 34). ity; and the SARLupe 70-80 cm. military
idea,” he says. Brig. Gen. Thomas Reiter, a board imaging intelligence network.
38 AviAtion Week & spAce technology/June 14/21, 2010 AviationWeek.com/awst
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 SPACE
The proposed optical imaging system, ellite—something Woerner denies—and satellites. The largely German-funded ini-
dubbed Hiros, would have a resolution the United Arab Emirates, another. Com- tiative is expected to use the Luxor bus
in the 50-cm. range and would be tar- mercial operators could launch a third. developed by OHB System, with assis-
geted at dual-use civil/military require- A second thrust of the strategic plan tance from the European Space Agency
ments. France, where Europe’s optical will be to develop know-how in broad- (ESA), for small telecom applications.
expertise is currently focused, is already band technology, another area currently German companies are among those bid-
building Pleiades, a 50-cm. dual-use sys- dominated by France. The vehicle for ding to operate the system. ESA is ex-
tem to be deployed in 2011-12. this will be Heinrich Hertz—a technol- pected to select an operator, but the exact
The French have looked askance in ogy satellite intended primarily to test makeup of EDRS will depend on funding.
the past at German moves toward the key new Ka- and Ku-band high-speed In- OHB System CEO Berry Smutny says a
optical domain, pointing to an unwrit- ternet technologies—that is currently in system comprising one dedicated satel-
ten agreement that gives Germany and the Phase A initial definition phase and lite and a single piggyback payload, in-
Italy preeminence in radar imaging intel- slated for a 2014-15 launch (AW&ST Mar. stead of the two piggybacks envisioned,
ligence and France, in optical imint. But 15, p. 58). Industry sources say a budget appears likely at this point.
DLR head Johann-Dietrich Woerner says line for detailed design and development The EDRS will carry a German laser
communications terminal supplied by
DLr

Astrium affiliate Tesat Spacecom. Tesat

has also contracted to supply laser ter-
minals for ESA’s Alphasat large telecom
mission and two Sentinel satellites for its
Global Monitoring for Environment and
Security (GMES) network, says CEO
Peter Schlote. One terminal is already
aboard the TerraSAR-X radar satellite.
The strategic plan will also seek to
strengthen Germany’s growing capa-
bilities in space robotics. ESA last week
was poised to recognize this role by la-
beling the DLR’s Institute of Robotics
and Mechatronics in Oberpaffenhofen
an official “reference laboratory,” mean-
ing it is considered capable of serving
robotics needs that the agency cannot
supply itself. More than €120 million
($145 million) is being invested in the fa-
cility, including a funding injection from
the state of Bavaria, where it is situated.
ESA director general Jean-Jacques
This five-fingered robot, dubbed Space Justin, is one concept under study at DLR’s new Institute Dordain says the agency will take care
of Robotics and Mechatronics, intended to make Germany a powerhouse in space robotics. to avoid duplication between the DLR fa-
cility and the new ESA center in Harwell,
Germany does not consider this a barrier, is in place but a number of details remain England, which will also be devoted large-
noting that France has access to Italian to be worked out, including the makeup ly to robotics. In February, DLR issued
radar know-how through Franco-Italian of the science piggyback payload and who awards for detailed Phase B definition
contractor Thales Alenia Space. “[For- will operate the spacecraft—the govern- of a demonstrator intended to validate
mer German space strategy] decided to ment or private industry. SES Astra, Eu- the ablity of robotic systems to perform
bypass optical satellites,” he says. “It’s telsat and Astrium Services are said to be in-orbit inspection, maintenance and
time to change course.” among the interested bidders. reorbit/deorbit operations. An asteroid
For the moment, Woerner admits The broadband mission is part of a mission is also in the pipeline, for a 2013
there is no budget for Hiros, which, like concerted German return to satellite launch, as are additional hypersonic dem-
Pleiades would likely consist of a constel- communications after a 20-year hiatus onstration flights (AW&ST Feb. 1, p. 73).
lation of two or three satellites. For now, that, as with optical satellites, was mo- Another strategic goal will be to lever-
the DLR will limit its work to improving tivated by policy priorities. In addition age Germany’s role in GMES to enlarge
advanced focal plane array technology. to strengthening the country’s role as a its footprint in environmental moni-
However, agency managers say they supplier of solar arrays, traveling wave toring. This spring, an agreement was
are canvassing German public agencies tubes and other major subsystems, man- signed with France to jointly design and
and private companies to find money to agers want to position the country as a operate a satellite to monitor methane
launch a development program. A public- global leader in laser communications, concentrations in the atmosphere using
private partnership similar to that for and a credible rival to U.S. small telecom lidar technology (AW&ST Feb. 22, p. 34).
TerraSAR-X/Tandem-X is one option, satellite leader Orbital Sciences Corp. Germany will supply the lidar and France
but the preference would be to find a A key vehicle to advance these objec- the bus for the €120-million mission, for-
public anchor customer, Reiter says. tives will be the European Data Relay merly known as Charme and now called
According to industry sources, the System (EDRS), intended to permit near Merlin, which is to be launched in 2012.
German intelligence service has ex- real-time dissemination of Earth science Other initiatives are planned with the
pressed an interest in funding one sat- and other data from Earth observation U.S. (see p. 41).  c
40 AviAtion Week & spAce technology/June 14/21, 2010 AviationWeek.com/awst
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Cooperative Spirit
pend on a planned government bond
issue, for which SWOT is a candidate.
A second major focus of Garver’s trip
involves discussions to extend the life of
NASA searches for more robust international the International Space Station (ISS)
to 2020. Europe is keen on developing a
partnerships on Earth science, ISS supply cargo return capsule based on the Au-
tomated Transfer Vehicle. A feasibility
Michael a. Taverna/Paris and Berlin study for the concept, known as the Ad-

A
vanced Reentry Vehicle (ARV), is to be
lthough the Obama adminis- Woerner said Germany may also be completed toward year-end and a devel-
tration’s space policy is not yet interested in collaborating in NASA’s opment proposal could be presented in
in place, NASA is already ex- planned follow-on to OCO, the carbon 2011/2012.
ploring ways to implement the dioxide monitoring satellite destroyed ESA envisions proposing the ARV,
president’s new partnership in 2009. German industry is working which would have ten times the down-
approach. on a high-resolution concept, known as load capacity of the Soyuz, as a replace-
Deputy Administrator Lori Garver Carbonsat, that would be derived from ment or complement for two additional
was in Berlin last week on the first leg experience with the Schiamachy instru- ATVs that it could be expected to supply
of a six-day trip that will also take her to ment on Envisat. for the ISS extension in return for utility
Paris and Vienna. Garver said the trip France might also be interested in a services.
is intended to explain new programs joint CO2 mission. Marc Pircher, head of However, ESA head Dordain says Eu-
planned and solicit potential interna- CNES’s Toulouse facility, said engineers rope will not embark on ARV develop-
tional cooperation, even though formal
commitments will have to await approv-
al of the agency’s new budget.
Garver’s ILA Berlin Air Show visitors The Earth sciences will be a major focus of NASA’s
included German aerospace head Jo- cooperation plans. NASA and German aerospace
hann-Dietrich Woerner, German parlia- center DLR signed an agreement at ILA to extend
mentarians and Ukraine Space Agency operation of the Grace gravity mission.
head Yuri Alekseyev. She was also due
to participate in a panel discussion with
Russian Space Agency chief Anatoli Per-
manov, European Space Agency (ESA)
director general Jean-Jacques Dor-
dain and a representative of the Indian
Space Research Organization. In Paris,
she planned to see Claude Gueant, gen-
eral secretary of the French presidency,
along with parliamentarians, French
space agency head Yannick d’Escatha
and Dordain. The final stop in Vienna
will take Garver to U.N. Copuos and the
U.N. Space Office.
European leaders are intent on test-
ing declarations by NASA Administra-
tor Charles Bolden that cooperation,
including in sensitive areas like explo- EAdS AStriuM ConCEpt

ration, will no longer be limited to roles have determined that a planned near- ment until the five ISS partners agree on
off the critical path, as was the case term microsatellite-based initiative, Mi- common download requirements. “One
under Bolden’s predecessor Mike Grif- croCarb is technically unfeasible at the thing the shuttle retirement has taught
fin (AW&ST Feb. 15, p. 36). “We’d like desired spectral resolutions. They are us is that we need to adopt a common
to see more missions like [the airborne now investigating more elaborate mis- approach to space transportation, from
telescope] Sofia, where NASA and [Ger- sion for the 2018-20 timeframe. cargo download/upload to crew trans-
many’s] DLR are considered equal part- Another planned collaborative mis- port,” says Dordain. ESA is circulating a
ners,” says Woerner. sion could be an interferometry-based common transportation policy proposal
High on the roster of potential co- wide-swath altimetry system, known as part of the extension talks.
operative endeavors, Garver said, are as SWOT, to succeed the U.S-French Some partners have reacted positive-
opportunities offered by the proposed Topex-Poseidon/Jason ocean altimetry ly to the proposal but others, including
50% increase in NASA’s Earth science program. Garver said NASA and CNES the U.S., appear reticent, Dordain says.
budget. Among the missions highlighted are “very close” to finalizing details on Garver says NASA is “in favor of com-
are the successor to the German-U.S. the first SWOT mission, which is slated mon requirements” and will do all it can
Gravity Recovery and Climate Experi- for launch around 2017. France envisions “to promote a more robust, redundant
ment (Grace), launched in 2002. NASA taking a 25% share in the mission, which space transportation system.”  c
and DLR inked an agreement here to will cost an estimated €600 million ($725
extend Grace another two years, to 2015. million), but Pircher says this may de- With Frank Morring, Jr., in Washington.
AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & spAce technology/June 14/21, 2010 41
DEFENSE

German Battle Ground

frigate helicopter program
in Germany. The U.S. manu-
facturer is now assembling
a German industrial team
German naval, CSAR helo requirements and vows that the helicopter
would be assembled in Ger-
draw fierce competitive interests many, says Joseph Gigantelli,
Sikorsky’s vice president for
RobeRt Wall and andy nativi/beRlin sales for Europe, the Middle
East and Africa. But he con-
cedes that some of the Ger-

Sikorsky hopes it can entice

the German military to buy the
S-92-derived Cyclone heli-
copter for navy and air force
requirements.

man requirements are be-

yond what the Cyclone can
deliver, and says talks are
underway with the customer
to determine what tradeoffs
may be possible.
AgustaWestland is of-
fering the AW101, which
the U.K. already employs
for CSAR and special op-
erations missions. A similar
application is used by Italian
navy special forces person-
nel. The Italian air force
looked at both the NH90 and
AW101, and eventually opted
for the larger rotorcraft.
The CH-47 CSAR bid
SiKorSKY ConCepT

would draw on technology

Boeing has already devel-
oped for other programs,
says David L. Jones, director
of rotorcraft strategy. That

T
he German military’s appetite for new military rotor- includes the inflight refueling capability flying on MH-47G
craft is creating a stir throughout the U.S. and European special operations helicopters in the U.S.
helicopter industry, with an unusual number of critical But Eurocopter CEO Lutz Bertling is not conceding the
decisions looming. field and still advocates the NH90. One reason, he says, is that
Although Eurocopter has dominated the domestic it would be the lowest-cost option since it would require the
market in recent history, missteps on key programs—such as defense ministry merely to buy upgrade kits and fit them to
the NH90 troop transport and Tiger attack helicopter—have existing NH90s. Bertling acknowledges that the NH90 could
angered the German government customer and given foreign not perform all the missions the air force wants, but says it
rivals a hint that they may have a fighting chance to win some would provide an 80% solution with far lower risk and cost. In
orders. But Eurocopter is not backing down and is trying to fact, he argues, the NH90/CSAR situation provides a good test
mend relations with the German defense ministry. At the same case for statements from government officials that they would
time, the company argues that using its rotorcraft will provide be willing to accept a less capable system that has lower risk.
fleet commonality that others cannot match. The helo could carry up to three machine guns, have a double
But Sikorsky and AgustaWestland see things differently as hoist system, electronic self-protection and other features.
they eye the potential of displacing Eurocopter for a German If the air force wants a rotorcraft that really can meet all its
navy program to field 30 maritime helicopters and roughly 19 CSAR needs, it would have to opt for the Boeing CH-47, he says,
German air force combat search-and-rescue (CSAR) rotorcraft. thereby introducing a new single helo type with a higher cost.
Germany’s involvement in Afghanistan gives a sense of ur- Eurocopter also faces competition for the frigate program,
gency to the CSAR program, with bidders due to respond to a where it is offering the MH90-NG.
request next month. All competitors describe the requirement Rotorcraft similar to the NFH90 are flying in the Nether-
as demanding, not least because of the large number of troops lands and France, and are due for delivery this year in Norway
the service wants to transport over long distances. and Italy; the MH90 would have a different radar, use a four-
Sikorsky plans to bid a CSAR version of the S-92-derived Cy- rather than a three-person cockpit, and have to accommodate
clone helicopter—the same platform it would offer for the naval a larger boarding party for anti-piracy missions. But Bertling
42 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst
argues there would be big logistics benefits from using the as a sign of how business can be done when speed is impor-
helicopter that is very similar to the troop-transport NH90 tant. He points to a two-page requirement drawn up by the
operated by the German army and air force. customer and his company’s willingness to perform much of
Fleet commonality and low risk are advantages also being the work before a contract has been awarded.
touted by Sikorsky with its offer derived from the Canadian CH- Still, Eurocopter is fighting yet another battle—to mend
148. Gigantelli notes that the German navy helo would be fielded relations with the German customer. The tension has been
only two years after Canada receives the first of its final-con- mounting for some time, and notable animosity emerged with
figuration CH-148s, so development risk would be minimized. a German government decision to stop accepting Tiger at-
Moreover, using the Cyclone for the air force CSAR mission tack helicopters because of wire chaffing. However, France
and the navy role would provide support and training benefits, and other Tiger operators, which have experienced a similar
he adds. Although Sikorsky has suffered delays in the CH-148 problem, have continued with deliveries.
program, company officials insist those problems have been Bertling says the German government and Eurocopter
overcome, and four rotorcraft are in flight trials. have come to a mutual agreement on fixing the wire-chaffing
Meanwhile, Eurocopter also is in talks with the German problems, and Tigers will again be accepted once the first two
defense ministry to field a medical evacuation kit for NH90s modified rotorcraft are handed over this month and next and
that could be delivered next year. The urgency is driven by complete 50 hr. of flight trials.
the German forces’ heavy casualties in Afghanistan. The plan As part of the deal, the government also committed to boost-
would be to field 12 upgrade kits to be carried on German army ing its resources for type acceptance. Eurocopter has com-
or air force NH90s in the initial operational capability-plus plained that the German customer has been far less responsive
configuration now being fielded. Bertling heralds the effort than others with regard to accepting completed rotorcraft. c

Heavy lifting
RobeRt Wall/beRlin

D
evelopment strategies are rocopter would do the same in Europe, acknowledging development hurdles
crystallizing for a new heavy-lift says Eurocopter CEO Lutz Bertling. on other new rotorcraft projects. Jones
helicopter with the European The goal is to have a heavy-lift capabil- says the systems should be at a tech-
Defense Agency release of a request ity available around 2020. nology-readiness Level 6, where they
for information and NATO working on Boeing’s director for rotorcraft strat- have been demonstrated.
turning an alliance staff target for such egy, David L. Jones, notes that the In addition, Bertling says workshare
a rotorcraft into an actual requirement. cabin size will be key and has to be will be allocated by capability, rather
One key design feature involves car- about the same as a C-130’s. than apportioned to allow a company
rying a load internally, rather than using If a U.S.-European FTH project goes to build a technology skill it currently
sling loads. Aarne Kreuzing- lacks.
BoeinG

er-Janik, German air force But the Boeing/Euro-

chief of staff, wants the helo copter team is not unchal-
to carry 70 troops (or 13-15 lenged. Sikorsky is propos-
metric tons of payload) with ing the CH-53K now in
a range of 300 km. (185 development for the U.S.
mi.) in difficult environmen- Marine Corps. It would pro-
tal conditions. The system vide the ideal jumping-off
would be in the 80,000-lb. point to meet the heavy-lift
class. need.
Eurocopter and Boeing Joseph Gigantelli, Sikor-
are jointly preparing for the sky’s vice president for sales
Future Transport Helicopter for Europe, the Middle East
(FTH) project, a potentially and Africa, says efforts now
cooperative venture be- underway to build indus-
tween the U.S. and several trial ties in Germany for the
European states. The goal Eurocopter and Boeing are looking at ways to jointly pursue Cyclone represent a good
would be to provide the the Future Transport Helicopter program with a 80,000-lb.-class stepping stone to introduce
U.S. Army with a CH-47 tandem rotorcraft. the CH-53K in Europe.
replacement. In Germany, On the engine side, Ger-
the FTH is aimed at replacing CH-53s, forward, it could provide the only mean- many’s MTU is throwing its weight be-
while France wants to establish a ingful transatlantic effort for the fore- hind using the GE38 for the new rotor-
heavy-lift capability it now lacks. seeable future, Bertling asserts. craft, a program in which it has taken a
The exact work allocation between He says the FTH plan being devised strategic stake. The GE38 powers the
Boeing and Eurocopter is not set; but by his company and Boeing relies on CH-53K already.
under the terms of the initial agree- the use of the latest available technol- Jones adds that the Rolls-Royce
ment, Boeing would serve as the prime ogy. “[But] we want to avoid the er- AE1107C would also provide a suit-
contractor for any U.S. activity and Eu- rors we have had in the past,” he says, able engine along with the GE38.  c
aviationweek.com/awst aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 43
No other airliner can follow it.
Every 62 seconds, an Airbus A330 takes off somewhere in the world. With an established dispatch reliability record of over
99% it’s almost certain to be right on time, helping more than 80 operators worldwide serve over 300 airports with new
levels of efficiency and profitability. What’s more, the proven A330 leading edge technologies result in a cash operating cost
per seat up to 15% lower than the 777-200ER. One day, maybe all wide-bodies will follow the A330’s lead and be this
reliable and cost-effective. Until then, your choice is simple. The A330. The right aircraft, right now.

airbus.com
New Standards. Together
Airbus, its logo and the product names are registered trademarks.
DEFENSE

Intercept Course requests for additional capability and

to lower flight-test risk. In the pro-
cess, the governments decided to let
the program proceed to CDR before
Meads customers set to confront reviewing what comes next.
That decision point is now ahead;
program’s life-cycle cost and Gregory Kee, the head of the
NATO Meads Management Agency,
RobeRt Wall and andy nativi/beRlin hopes a contract to complete develop-
ment will be formalized by year-end.
At what cost neither government nor
industry officials are yet ready to say.
Meads would use the Patriot The current plan envisions the
PAC-3 Missile System Enhance- flight-test campaign starting with
ment interceptor already in flight one guided test at White Sands Mis-
testing by Lockheed Martin. sile Range, N.M. Six intercept en-
gagements would follow, mostly at
White Sands, but with the final one
at the Kwajalein Atoll missile range.
The second document being fi-
nalized is an industry assessment
of Meads’s life-cycle costs over 20
years of operations. This report is
due to be presented to the program
management agency on July 1. The
assessment is viewed as critical to
help countries decide the number
of Meads batteries to buy while also
considering potential alternatives.
Klaus Riedel, chief operating offi-
cer for the Meads International in-
dustrial venture of Lockheed Martin
and MBDA, is optimistic about the
outcome of the study. Meads will re-
quire far less support and is easier to
transport, thereby reducing the total
fuel and airlift demands, he contends.
Given the life-cycle cost savings over
existing systems, “Meads pays for it-
self,” he argues. The high system reli-
ability written into the design should
pay big dividends in the life-cycle
cost analysis, Kee adds.
Meads InTernaTIonal

That outcome could be important

for Germany, where Raytheon officials
have been trying to convince Berlin to
drop participation in Meads and in-

T
stead upgrade existing Patriot batter-
he trinational Medium Extended Air Defense System ies. The German parliament’s budget committee is reviewing the
(Meads) is once again under scrutiny, and its fate could issue and is due to report its findings by month’s end.
be determined by a series of political and programmatic Still unresolved as well are specific Meads procurement
developments due to unfold in the coming weeks. plans for the three partner countries if the program proceeds.
The U.S.-German-Italian lower-tier air and missile Kee would like to see that issue resolved by 2012-13 to allow a
defense program has been on knife’s edge more than once. smooth transition from the current development phase into
And this summer, government officials must confront what production. During previous Meads decision points, discus-
it will cost to complete the program, while also deciding how sions often dragged on, adding to programmatic turmoil, but
to finance and structure the last few years of the design and Kee notes that this time talks have already begun, so such
development phase. disruptions may be avoided.
Three major studies will wrap up during the coming weeks. What is more, Kee hopes that NATO’s expected commit-
One is an industry proposal on the pace and cost to finish ment to missile defense at the November summit in Lisbon
the design and development phase following completion of will help bolster support for Meads.
the system-level critical design review (CDR), due in August, Nevertheless, program uncertainty has not stopped foreign
says Werner Kaltenegger, head of MBDA Deutschland. Sev- buyers from showing interest in the mobile air and missile de-
eral years ago, Meads customers reset the development pro- fense system being designed to provide 360-deg. coverage. Tur-
gram that began in September 2004 to reflect delays, their key and Singapore are among potential export markets.  c
46 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst
High Stakes
is because there are billions of dollars at
stake, for AgustaWestland in particular.
Seven of its VH-71s are sitting in storage
at the Naval Air Systems (Navair) home-
The race for the U.S. presidential helicopter stead at Patuxent River, Md.
Those aircraft could potentially be
contract includes shifting allegiances used as test articles if the so-called Boe-
ing 101 wins the competition. The U.S.
Bettina H. CHavanne/WasHington and andy nativi/genoa manufacturer could easily argue that

T
the government could recoup its $2-plus-
he myriad industrial relationships Neither Sikorsky nor Boeing will dis- billion investment on the first, failed com-
broken and reforged for the newly cuss the potential division of labor. “We’re petition, by selecting a platform that has
relaunched U.S. presidential heli- looking at the best use of our respective already been through the process. Now
copter competition seem to rep- facilities in terms of where the work gets that it owns all the rights, Boeing would
resent a larger trend in defense done,” says Scott Starrett, president of have only to make minor changes to fit
manufacturing. It’s not the world that’s Sikorsky Military Systems. Dunford says the VXX RFP.
shrinking, it’s the world economy. the AW101 production location “remains “Until the AOA is produced, we’re
Boeing announced June 8 it is buy- to be seen. The goal is to build as much of not going to know the way the customer
ing full intellectual property, data and it as we can inside the Boeing Co.” will go,” Dunford says. “We will respond
production rights from Agus- either individually or with a

AguSTAWeSTlAnd
taWestland for its AW101 air- mix [of aircraft] depending
craft. “This is not a partner- on what the AOA says.”
ship,” says Phil Dunford, vice Whatever the AOA deter-
president and general man- mines about the acquisition
ager of Boeing Rotorcraft. process, which was saddled
“This will be a Boeing-built with ever-shifting require-
airplane.” ments and a glut of agencies
The two companies are with a say in the matter, the
forging a wide-ranging re- request for information re-
lationship. AgustaWestland veals the government’s inter-
stands to make a consider- est in breaking down the pro-
able amount of money on the gram into more manageable
sale of its intellectual rights pieces.
to the AW101. And the com- The presidential helicopter
pany is now relieved of the could be a single type model
burden of navigating an in- with two variants—one “fully
tercontinental business part- appointed, executive” and
nership. Boeing assumes the The Italian AgustaWestland AW101 is positioning itself to be the All- another “significantly light-
risk, while AgustaWestland American Boeing 101 in the battle for the U.S. presidential helicopter er, performance-based, C4I
reaps the rewards. contract. [command, control, com-
The reverse is true for Boe- munications, computers
ing, which sold its intellectual property A strong “Buy American” sentiment and intelligence] capable variant” with
rights to AgustaWestland on the CH-47 in Washington is probably also driving reconfigurable VIP amenities. Or, the
Chinook, which is built and marketed some of the teaming decisions. Agus- solution may lie in two separate models
to the Italians in Italy. Anywhere else in taWestland suffered in the first compe- altogether.
the world, the two companies compete tition from not being an all-American The Navy is being exceedingly cau-
against each other with the AW101 and company. By handing over the reins of tious, refusing to release any informa-
CH-47 as their own platforms. With the AW101 to Boeing, that argument is tion until its AOA is complete. “It is
AgustaWestland holding a minority stake removed from the equation. Somewhat. premature to estimate particular costs
in the Bell Textron BA609 tiltrotor pro- Boeing has launched its own “Buy for any specific configuration,” the ser-
gram, it is again linked to Boeing. American” campaign for an entirely vice said in a statement issued June 8.
For the VXX Presidential Helicopter different contract award battle, and is It also notes the RFI is simply a “first
Program, Boeing is partnering with Bell already being pressed for specifics on step in the data gathering stage of the
Helicopter on a different offering—the just how American the Boeing 101 will AOA process.”
V-22 Osprey, which was thrown into the be. “There are still components built in The Navy wants to address “all fea-
mix. “There has been a lot of interest in Europe,” Dunford says. “Depending on sible options considering a holistic as-
the V-22,” says Dunford. And, he adds, the time line, I would imagine they would sessment of requirements, capabilities,
in the CH-47 Chinook, which is the third be existing supply chains we would use.” cost drivers, schedule implications and
Boeing response to the Navy’s RFI. No formal request for proposals ex- risks.” Hoping, perhaps to avoid the is-
Meanwhile, AgustaWestland’s former ists, the Navy is still muddling through sues that led to a 2007 judgment levied
partner on the VH-71, Lockheed Mar- its analysis of alternatives (AOA), and by a Navy evaluation of the program,
tin, has relinquished its lead role and yet this complicated struggle to win the called the Program Management Assist
teamed with Sikorsky Aircraft Corp. to VXX bid is already in full swing. If it Group that pointed to “dysfunctional
pitch Sikorsky’s S-92 as a possible con- seems unusual to pitch a battle royal for contractor behaviors” and unrealistic
tender for the crown. a fleet of two dozen aircraft at most, it requirements from the White House. c
AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & spAce technology/June 14/21, 2010 47
DEFENSE

Fixed Idea
Limitations of rotary AEW platform propel
Indian navy interest in carrier-borne aircraft
AsiA-PAcific stAff/New Delhi

Northrop Grumman has

demonstrated patience as it
tries to turn a model of an
Indian E-2 Hawkeye into a
real program.

two aircraft carrier battle

groups in the coming de-
cade. Doctrine published
three years ago empha-
sized the need for AEW
platforms with meaning-
ful time on station.
The new RFI states
that the aircraft should
be capable of providing
an integrated air and
surface picture of the
area under surveillance
in adverse weather and
in dense electronic envi-
LIve FIsT ronments. Additionally,

T
he Indian navy is trying to move gested to the Indian navy that E-2C, it should be capable of being used as
ahead with an effort to buy four with appropriate modifications, could a command-and-control platform. The
carrier-based fixed airborne early be operated from the Gorshkov’s angled navy is stipulating the aircraft also have
warning and control aircraft, and deck without a steam catapult, though a limited maritime patrol and search-
a request for information is now the navy was not persuaded. Northrop and-rescue capabilities.
on the streets. Grumman has since been trying to push In a mid-2009 meeting, the navy’s
The request for information (RFI) the E-2 platform as a shore-based asset, Directorate of Aircraft Acquisition in-
calls for aircraft capable of providing and, in 2009, obtained U.S. government ternally discussed the feasibility of the
“airborne surveillance, detection and clearance to pitch the E-2D Advanced Bell-Boeing V-22 Osprey platform as a
tracking of airborne and surface con- Hawkeye. potential AEW&C aircraft, but this did
tacts and control.” With one indigenous aircraft carrier in not evolve into anything concrete, and
The navy presently operates a fleet of the pipeline—and a second to follow—the any plans to call for information were
nine Kamov Ka-31 airborne early warn- navy is convinced it needs a fixed-wing dropped. At the time, Boeing officials
ing (AEW) helicopters. The compara- AEW platform, if not for the first, then confirmed that they had heard nothing
tively limited range and time-on-station definitely for the second aircraft carrier. of the Indian navy’s interest in the V-22
of an AEW helicopter, however, contin- Earlier this year, Northrop Grum- platform, and that the company had not
ues to drive the navy’s interest in a fixed- man officials revealed the company initiated any discussions.
wing early warning platform. The navy was awaiting guidance from the navy The Indian AEW&C aircraft project,
has had aspirations to acquire a more following technical briefings. Company currently under development by the
capable AEW platform for the better executives have also reportedly been in Centre for Airborne Systems (CABS) in
part of a decade, but so far has been un- discussion with the navy about the fea- Bangalore, will receive its first modified
able to secure a procurement program sibility of installing a catapult launch Embraer ERJ 145 later this year. The
for most of the last 10 years. Some navy system on India’s second indigenous program has previously been pitched to
officials suggest that the acquisition is aircraft carrier, a suggestion already the navy as a platform for a shore-based
still not an immediate priority. under active consideration by naval de- early warning aircraft.
It is now six years since the navy first signers here. With the first of eight Boeing P-8I
approached Northrop Grumman about While the navy has variously weighed long-range maritime reconnaissance
the E-2C Hawkeye. At the time, the navy the option of considering other longer- aircraft to be delivered in 2013, the navy
was working hard to identify a fixed-wing range rotary-wing airborne early warn- is also in the market for six medium-
AEW platform for the Admiral Gorshkov ing and control (AEW&C) platforms, range maritime reconnaissance jets.
(INS Vikramaditya) aircraft carrier. it has persisted with its view that its An evaluation program for the latter
In 2005, the company’s then-director fleet of Ka-31s simply will not fulfill its requirement is expected to begin this
of AEW programs, David Murray, sug- early-warning requirements if it has year.  c
48 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst
FLIGHT TEST

Test Expansion
who “have Boeing badges and trained
with Boeing pilots,” says Carriker. ANA
captains Masayuki Ishii, director of 787
pre-operations planning, and Masami
787 test team readies for performance Tsukamoto, manager of 787 pre-opera-
tions, reported “transient-free” handling
evaluations and service-ready demo qualities between various flight modes.
In line with these and other demonstra-
Guy Norris/WashiNGtoN tions, Boeing has also proved to regula-

B
tory authorities that the 787’s handling
oeing is gearing up to start full Prior to lay-up, the aircraft was used qualities are similar to the 777’s, marking
performance tests of the 787 to prepare for the upcoming performance a milestone on the path to winning type
and is in the planning stages for tests. “We ran through several dual-fail- commonality approval between the two
a service-ready demonstration ure scenarios, including flying with dual models for crew qualification.
with launch customer All Nip- hydraulic systems and with two flight The 787 is designed to be operation-
pon Airways. control computers turned off. We’ve ally common with the existing Boeing
“We’re going to try to squeeze every done all that sort of stuff and built in all fleet, and with the 777 in particular.
inch and ounce out of it,” says 787 chief the information to get the speed schedul- Passing the handling-quality test is
pilot Mike Carriker. “This is where therefore “a big deal,” says Car-

MarK WagnEr/aviaTion-iMagEs.CoM
the fun part of it” really begins, he riker. Boeing’s goal is for 777 crews
adds. Upcoming performance work to take as few as five days of train-
follows the completion of baseline ing to qualify as 787 pilots. The pilot
airworthiness, structural and sys- pool for operators of 777/787 mixed
tems tests, as well as type inspec- fleets is the same, and the company
tion authorization in a program says 787 pilots will spend less time
that has so far accumulated more training and more time flying.
than 930 flight hours and almost The approval is being sought in
300 flights. a three-step process, with T-1, the
Progress toward the planned tar- systems aspect, already passed.
get of around 2,300 hr., although ini- “We just passed the T-2 test, which
tially slower than expected, is pick- proves the 787 has similar handling
ing up, says Carriker. The fifth 787 qualities,” Carriker says.
test aircraft, and the first General The final element, T-3, will cover
Electric GEnx-1B-powered aircraft, validation of the training courses
ZA005, is due to begin flying in the and involves candidate pilots taking
next week. “In the near future, we an FAA check ride. “We’ve already
should be flying four or five aircraft sent 100 plus Boeing people through
per day,” he says. “We think we have the course to internally validate it,”
a good plan, and the aircraft’s han- Precision Forecasting helped speed natural icing tests he adds.
dling qualities are such that I think with ZA002, which is equipped with a chin-mounted The T-2 phase involved flights
we’ll get the data in hand.” droplet size sensor. with six non-Boeing crew—three
Carriker’s confidence is based on pilots from the Japanese Civil Avia-
the completion of three key milestones. ing that forms the first part of the tests at tion Bureau, European Aviation Safety
Flutter testing was completed in 108 hr. Edwards AFB,” says Carriker. Agency and Transport Canada, as well
during 27 days, while real-time stability ZA001 was also used to complete as three from the FAA. All were 777 line
margin testing of the flight control sys- Vmcg (minimum control ground veloc- pilots from national airlines, and were
tem indicated a robust design. Coupled ity) tests at Moses Lake, Wash., in two each taken through a series of flight
with the completion of structural tests flights for a total of 1 hr. 50 min. Stall evaluations including a standard takeoff
on static test airframe ZY997, the work testing was also completed in a short and landing, touch-and-go and landing,
showed that “at the end of it, we had our- time, says Carriker. and takeoff with power pulled back on
selves a jet,” says Carriker. Tests that on “We did it all in around 2 hr., or after one engine. Other procedures included
the 737 took 20 hr. are taking only 5 hr. around 200 stalls,” he adds, comparing a simulated single-engine missed ap-
on the 787. “We’re doing spectacularly it to the approximately 2,000 stalls con- proach and single-engine approach with
well, but then that’s the way it has to be.” ducted on the 737-600, -700, -800 and full-stop landing.
Flight testing of ZA001 is due to re- -900 family. Testing established that “They all said it flew like a 777; and
start later this month with artificial ice stall characteristics “are sublime,” al- while some said it was either a bit higher,
shapes on the leading edges of the wing. though Carriker says the travel of the low or about the same on flare forces,
Following this phase, the aircraft is due leading edge was “tweaked a little bit” they all landed it on the right speeds,
to fly to Edwards AFB, Calif., for the to ensure a positive pitch recovery in on the numbers and on the centerline,”
start of extensive runway tests—such as certain configurations. says Carriker. The result reflects efforts
Vmu (velocity minimum unstuck), which “We’ve also signed up to go on All Nip- to design flight control software closely
measures the lowest speed at which the pon Airways’ service-ready demonstra- emulating 777 handling qualities, as well
aircraft can lift off. ZA001 is currently tion toward the end of the year,” he says. as careful design efforts with flight-deck
in lay-up while being fitted with a fresh Boeing’s engineering and training plan systems such as the alternate flap actua-
pair of Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engines. included bringing in two ANA pilots tor, he adds. c
AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & spAce technology/June 14/21, 2010 49
EMERGING MARKETS INDIA

DYNAMATIC TECHNOLOGIES LTD.

Emerging
Dynamics
Developing countries like India
will be powerful catalysts as
the aerospace industry evolves Aircraft design and manufacturing
will benefit greatly from India’s
ANTHONY L. VELOCCI, JR./NEW YORK growing technical prowess.

T
he aerospace industry is changing in complex ways. offers investment opportunities that could total $200-300 bil-
Supplier networks are becoming more global; new en- lion by 2020, according to estimates at the Second U.S.-India
trants are starting to challenge the most established Aviation Partnership Summit in Washington last December.
players; and manufacturers of civil aircraft and weap- Airlines in India plan to acquire more than 300 aircraft valued
ons systems are seeing emerging markets as their at approximately $35 billion during the coming decade, and it
greatest business opportunities. is easy to understand why: Domestic air traffic is forecast to
The importance of emerging markets in aerospace and de- grow by up to 180 million passengers and international traffic
fense is nothing new, of course, but such markets are likely to is expected to increase by 50 million passengers annually by
take on greater urgency as the U.S. defense budget tightens 2020—largely a function of that burgeoning middle class want-
within the next year or so and worldwide demand for business ing improved mobility.
and civil aircraft continues to accelerate. These statistics do not even include the huge investment
With this double issue, Aviation Week & Space Technology India plans to modernize its infrastructure, which is likely to
and AviationWeek.com kick off a series of periodic special transform the aviation landscape in the medium-to-long term,
reports on individual emerging markets, examining their according to U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood. The
roles in the industry’s future and in shaping the competitive procurement of aviation infrastructure-related equipment and
landscape. Emerging markets, after all, represent not just the services totaled $5 billion in 2008; it is projected to reach $6-7
potential for billions of dollars in future sales, but also new billion in 2010 and continue growing at that rate in each of
partnerships—not to mention the specter of new competitors the next 5-10 years, notes U.S. Deputy Commerce Secretary
whose appetite for advanced technology is exceeded only by Dennis Hightower. Moreover, a growing aftermarket services
their ambition to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the domi- sector is expected to emerge and expand rapidly during the
nant global aerospace manufacturers. same period.
Companies in emerging markets are not to be underesti- Then there is India’s defense market, valued at $30 billion
mated. For example, with the 977,000 patent applications filed over the next 10 years. “As India continues with the expan-
in China alone during 2009, such markets have staked their sion and the modernization of its civil—and military—avia-
claim as the new hotbed of high-tech innovation. tion capabilities, we need technology, equipment and human
How will the culture of innovation in high-growth markets resource support,” points out India’s ambassador to the U.S.,
shake up the aerospace industry? No one can say for sure, but Meera Shankar.
this much is certain: Aerospace companies in the U.S. and Of course, the pursuit of emerging markets is not without
Europe will have to learn how to compete against these new risk. For example, as many companies have already discovered,
rivals—Brazil’s Embraer already is forcing some well-estab- some investments and business opportunities will depend on
lished companies’ hands—while figuring out how to expand the speed at which sector and institutional reforms are imple-
their footprint in emerging markets. mented, economic growth is sustained and bureaucratic pro-
To many industry veterans in the West, there is no better cedures are relaxed. Offsets could be a thorny issue, as could
example of an emerging aerospace market than India. Those political alliances and the demand for sharing technology. But
trying to assess its economic potential could easily miss the such is the nature of emerging markets.
mark simply because of the speed and scale of change. India’s The challenge for the likes of Boeing, EADS and Raytheon
middle class, for instance, now numbering about 50 million will be managing how to find and exercise opportunities in
people, is forecast to swell to nearly 600 million by 2025, which places like India. No longer are companies in emerging markets
translates into a huge projected increase in air travel demand. interested in only buying technology from the West; they are
With that in mind, it is no wonder that the aviation sector preparing to challenge the established order. c
50 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 14/21, 2010 AviationWeek.com/awst
emerging markets inDia

Following the Money

far from seeking to develop aerospace as
a supposedly strategic part of the econo-
my under the direction of New Delhi, are
simply trying to make money.
As the Indian economy booms, aerospace Unlike private companies in some
other Asian countries, they are neither
becomes the next growth opportunity expected nor paid to undertake patri-
otic glamour projects, such as develop-
Bradley Perrett/New delhi ing an economically doubtful “national”

T
aircraft in one category or another.
T
he surest sign that India is a rising companies and the opportunity to gain And foreign aerospace suppliers are
power in aerospace is the private in- business from foreign suppliers com- not told to hand over a bundle of tech-
vestment flowing into the industry. pelled to offset their sales to India with nology in return for working with Indian
In contrast to state-directed ef- domestic purchases. partners on civil programs.
forts elsewhere in Asia, the growth Then there are the two great advan- General Electric is one of the most
in Indian aerospace manufacturing and tages in the background of so much of notable foreign participants in the in-
engineering is above all in businesses India’s successful engagement with the dustry. Bansidhar Phansalkar, general
that rely at most indirectly on govern- global economy: the English language manager of Indian engineering opera-
ment support. and the Common Law system shared tions for GE Aviation, has 600 engi-
“Aerospace is the next growth oppor- with the rest of the English-speaking neers working on advanced research
tunity in India,” says Avind Mehra, the world. The country’s respect for intel- and development, 75% of them with
head of the aircraft and aerostructures lectual property helps set it apart from post-graduate degrees. GE would pay
operation that Indian conglomerate some competitors, too. 10 times as much to run such an opera-
Mahindra is setting up. Rising wages will challenge the com- tion in a Western country, Phansalkar
Mahindra’s judgment is telling. Sur- panies, however, and all Indian busi- estimates. More importantly, he can
veying potential investments across the nesses suffer from the country’s poor in- find many more engineers, and expects
economy, the experienced and success- frastructure and the official corruption that the business will keep growing by
ful group—with operations from infor- that inhibits economic activity generally. 10-15% a year.
mation technology to automotives, in- A comparison with China is unavoid- The availability of engineers is on the
frastructure and finance—could choose able, and two big differences between minds of other Western companies that
almost any sector for its next expansion. their aerospace industries should be come to India looking for suppliers.
It has chosen aerospace. noted. First, India’s industry is still small. “Clearly, the big leaders of the global
One obvious reason for the growth of The dominant company, Hindustan Aero- industry are looking at the next genera-
Indian aerospace is low cost—above all, nautics Ltd., had revenue of $2.6 billion tion of commercial aircraft and how to
the competitive wages paid to Indian in its latest financial year; China’s Avic is assemble the engineering resources to
engineers and technicians. But there about 10 times larger. So the Indian aero- develop them,” says Raman Subrama-
is also the sheer availability of qualified space story is still mostly about potential nian, vice president for strategic initia-
people. Western companies have de- and growth rates, not absolute scale. tives at engineering and manufacturing
bated for years what to do about aging Second, China’s industry is growing company Quest. “They are looking at
engineering workforces. It is becoming through state-dominated giants that are doing a significant portion of the engi-
increasingly clear that, to a large extent, only partly exposed to the market. India neering in India.
the answer is India. also has a state-owned aerospace sub- “There is a constant push from our
Two other key factors driving the sector, but it has not been a strong per- customers to get capability going on cur-
industry forward are the increasing former (see p. 58). In India, the fastest rent programs so we will be ready for a
availability of defense work for private growth is in private companies that, larger-scale involvement in the next one.”

Indian manufacturers are competing for orders

that would offset India’s purchase of foreign
defense products, such as the Boeing P-8I.
Boeing ConCepT

AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & spAce technology/June 14/21, 2010 51

 In some cases, Quest can only infer is pushing up salaries—by 7-10% a year, The offsets policy opens doors, he
that its customers are deliberately up- say industry executives. To the extent says. It brings foreign aerospace manu-
skilling Quest. “But in several cases they that the industry cannot offset those pay facturers into contact with Samtel, giv-
have clearly articulated it in as many rises with higher efficiency, the wage infla- ing it a chance to prove itself.
words” tion will steadily sap its competitiveness. Dynamatic won a contract from Spirit
Just three or four years ago, Quest A common solution is to carefully di- AeroSystems to build flap-track beams
might have been contracted simply to do lute the experience of the engineering for the A320 family in 2007 without
engineering analysis—crunch numbers teams by filling out the lower ranks with any influence from the offsets policy,
for a problem that its customer was deal- new people and using the long-time em- although the work is now counted as an
ing with. The company, expected only to ployees as leaders. offset.
deliver data, would not even know what “Employees with the right skills are We “would basically like to work on
the customer was developing. not available off the shelf,” says Mal- the basis of giving the customer value
Now the customer will ask Quest to houtra. “With the increasing number of for money, and in the process if it helps
handle the development on its own, typi- foreign aerospace companies entering the customer meet offset obligations, we
cally a project that is not too challeng- India, retaining skilled manpower may are in favor of it,” says Malhoutra.
ing, such as re-engineering a part that pose a problem. Access to defense work helped Dyna-
is already in service. “The Indian private aerospace indus- matic get the Spirit business, because
Quest has stepped beyond that by try is in its infancy, and we feel that the the Indian company could show that it
developing an entirely new product, but wage rates will eventually rise faster had experience and a plant.
one for the ground: testing equipment. than the average across the economy. Rolls-Royce stresses the need to have
It expects the next stage will be a deeper local presence in In-
to engineer parts for a develop- dia than in the past, and not
ment of a current aircraft, such just to hand out offset work.
as a stretch or an update, while “We are not here It is important to be seen as
its customers hold its hand and engaged in the Indian industry.
help it to acquire new skills. because there is an offset “We are not here because

policy and we are forced

After that, it should reach there is an offset policy and we
the final objective: taking a are forced to do work here,”
risk-sharing role in the engi- says Anil Shrikhande, presi-
neering of an entirely new air-
craft, such as a replacement for to do work here” dent of Rolls-Royce India. “Our
approach to being in India is
the Boeing 737 or Airbus A320 not to discharge offset obliga-
family. tions. We don’t have what I re-
A similar process has played out at However, to be competitive, the produc- fer to as a suitcase mentality”—meaning,
GE’s engineering center in Bengalaru tivity levels will need to increase dra- the company does not just want to fly in,
(formerly Bangalore), but faster. The matically,” sign a sales contract, and fly back home.
center was set up in 2000 and within There is evidence that manufactur- “We do things in which India has com-
three years had moved from analysis ers can greatly improve their efficiency. parative advantage, and a by-product is
to such challenging work as advanced Dynamatic says it has approximately that we will be able to discharge those
system design, advanced mechanical de- doubled its sales in India each year since offset obligations.”
sign and combustion. Phansalkar says 2006 while quadrupling its staff. That The conglomerate Mahindra has
progress was fast because the center suggests a dramatic rise in output per bought two Australian companies to
belonged to GE. worker. jump-start its aerospace business,
Under a different model, more than The exact effect of the government’s whose Indian plant should be in produc-
500 engineers at Quest work for Rolls- offsets policy is a little hard to fathom. On tion by the end of next year.
Royce, which has also engaged Tata Con- the one hand, it is clear that it will draw The business case is based mainly on
sulting to deliver engineering services. business to India, even if it fails to bring in low costs and the offset opportunities,
Boeing trains its partners in program the highest technology (see p. 53). says Mehra.
management and lean manufacturing, Yet local companies and the foreign The company does not lack ambition.
says the company’s Indian president, ones with offset obligations all stress “Our aim is to be the Embraer of India,”
Dinesh Keskar. that their objective is to make money he says. At first it will make metal aero-
In manufacturing, no outside com- out of an Indian manufacturing contract structures and its own general aviation
pany seems to be deliberately fostering on its own merits; the offset obligations aircraft.
Dynamatic Technologies, but the com- will be met as a side effect. But if that is The government’s Hindustan Aero-
pany is working hard at learning new entirely true, then one must wonder why nautics, mainly a defense company,
skills and taking on more complex work. the offset policy is needed at all. is heavily engaged in the Sukhoi Su-
“We will graduate from smaller struc- The attitude of Samtel Display Sys- 30MKI program, but it too has proven
tural assemblies to larger, more sophisti- tems probably best represents the view that it can garner commercial work,
cated structural assemblies,” says Uday- of the Indian industry. “We want to be winning a follow-on order for 2,000
ant Malhoutra, chief executive. in the global supply chain, and not just A320 family forward passenger doors.
The company had five engineers because customers are obliged to work The company also produces flaperons
working for foreign clients three years with us under the offset rules,” says for the Boeing 777 under a contract
ago. Now it has 50 assigned to such work Executive Director Puneet Kaura. “We signed last year.  c
and in three years expects to have 500. want customers to look at us as an op-
Unsurprisingly, demand for engineers portunity, not as an obligation.” With Neelam Mathews in New Delhi.
52 AviAtion Week & spAce technology/June 14/21, 2010 AviationWeek.com/awst
 Quantity, Not Technology
Investment limits will restrict
technology transfer to India
Bradley Perrett/New delhi

I
ndia looks like it is failing in one of years, most of it imported, and wants May 17 that the limit should become 74%
the key objectives of its defense in- to use that spending to lure technology or even 100%. The department argued
dustrial policy—its desire to bring to India. Accordingly, it encourages the that strong joint ventures will work with
advanced Western technology into formation of Indian-foreign companies. state companies that might otherwise
domestic-foreign joint ventures on But ownership and control of ad- lose business to imports, that the global
its own territory. vanced technology is the heart of a defense industry was so dispersed that
Unless New Delhi changes its policy, defense contractor. To ensure it is not India would not rely on any one country,
limits on foreign investment in such shared with rivals, the most valuable and that, if necessary in an emergency,
businesses will ensure that the flood of know-how will be put only in the hands the government could seize factories.
work coming to the country as offsets to Defense Minister A.K. Antony rejected

SaMTel
Indian arms purchases will be limited to the department’s proposal, saying the
non-sensitive technology. arms sector was not ready for it. But the
There is pressure for change, howev- policy was still evolving and a higher limit
er, and industry executives are watching could not be ruled out forever, he added.
to see whether that change comes, since Higher foreign investment in India would
evolution of the rules on offset spending be allowed on a case-by-case basis, he
and foreign investment will be critical in said, but it is unclear whether that was a
guiding the technological development reference to more joint ventures or higher
of the Indian defense industry. foreign shareholdings in them.
As the rules stand, local makers of The offsets policy could also do more
aerostructures and components will be to encourage Indian manufacturers to
the main beneficiaries of the offsets pol- move into the most advanced technol-
icy, which requires foreign arms suppli- ogy. Here a key problem is that it gives
ers to buy 30-50% as much from India as credit for goods but not services, exclud-
the Indian government buys from them. ing R&D and even the software that In-
Electronics firms are also benefiting, dian companies have become so famous
but not at the leading edge of technology. for producing.
“The offsets budget is going to come out “We have argued for a broad-based
of hardware,” says Boeing India President offset policy,” says Anil Shrikhande,
Dinesh Keskar, looking at the $2.3 billion president of Rolls-Royce India. Like
his company must spend in India to offset other Western companies, the Brit-
the country’s orders for airliners and P-8I Samtel will work with Thales to develop hel- ish engine maker is taking advantage
Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft. met-mounted displays for the Indian military. of India’s abundant engineering talent
Indeed, the rise of privately owned In- and undertakes advanced development
dian aerostructures companies is mak- of a company that the foreign contrac- work in the country. That work, enlarg-
ing it all the easier to spend that money. tor can control—usually implying 50% ing the experience of India’s engineers,
In the past, foreign suppliers would have ownership or more. cannot be counted against offset obliga-
been largely limited to the government’s In Australia, for example, there is tions—though it might be argued that,
Hindustan Aeronautics as a destination no limit. That nation is comfortable since the foreign companies are buying
for offset spending. Now privately owned with its biggest defense businesses be- those services anyway, India does not
manufacturers are proliferating and ing fully owned branches of companies need to change rules to encourage them.
competing for business. from its Western allies. But India is not Rolls-Royce has been buying compo-
This all adds up to a thriving and ef- Australia. It has serious current threats nents from Hindustan Aeronautics since
ficient aerostructures industry. But it to its security, for decades had an un- 2003 and now has a joint venture with it
does not add up to a great deal of ad- easy relationship with the West, and it that makes compressor shrouds for civil
vanced defense technology. sees itself as a future great power. So it engines.
Executives of Western defense suppli- is not surprising that parts of the gov- Samtel Display Systems is an example
ers interviewed for this report all made ernment, notably the defense ministry, of a company with an electronics busi-
the same comment: A 26% limit on for- want to maximize Indian control over ness that is benefiting from the defense
eign ownership of defense companies en- the industry. And state companies such offsets policy. Samtel has a joint venture
sures that they will not transfer advanced as Hindustan Aeronautics and Bharat with Thales that is locally developing and
technology into local joint ventures. Electronics fear flourishing joint ven- producing helmet-mounted displays and
Much is at stake. The government is tures will stifle their growth. other avionics. The program, which does
expected to spend about $100 billion on The Industrial Policy and Promotion not yet have a production order, includes
defense equipment over the coming 10 Department disagrees. It suggested on some technology transfer from Thales.c
AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & spAce technology/June 14/21, 2010 53
emerging markets inDia

Room to Grow
livelihood. Though farmers receive the
purchase price for their land, they no
longer have a way of making a living.
Considering that most ordinary Indi-
Indian airport capacity must double ans are still too poor to fly, airport con-
struction does not elicit much support
every four to six years to meet demand as a good thing for the common person.
“Compulsory acquisition can be done
Bradley Perrett/New delhi and is done, but it is a very sensitive po-

A
litical issue,” says Shrivastava.
irport capacity is a challenge hub-and-spoke connections to the biggest It is not just farmland that can prove
for Indian aviation that may facilities. difficult to attain. Mumbai’s airport is
never go away. With such expansions going on, there hemmed in by a slum. Demolishing even
With 1.1 billion people and is little concern about a nationwide ca- part of it is judged politically impossible,
an economy firmly on the road pacity crunch in the next few years. But so the airport will always be limited to
to development, it is clear that in com- the expansions will have to be followed its two intersecting runways.
ing decades India will need one of the by more expansions or, in many cases, To get further air transport capacity
world’s mightiest systems of aviation new airports. And there the planners for the city, India’s commercial capital,
ground facilities. The problem planners have found a site
is finding land. at nearby Navi Mumbai. It is
The 12.5% annual growth in a swamp, which avoids the
passenger numbers forecast by Srinagar
Jammu
Major Indian Airports farmland acquisition problem,
the Ministry of Civil Aviation Amritsar
but will cost more to develop.
for the coming decade implies Moreover, the site is environ-
that Indian airport capacity mentally sensitive, so the area
must double every six years. New Delhi
of swamp that is filled should
If the industry grows at more be the minimum possible.
than 15%, as it has recently, Jaipur Lucknow The result is that the fu-
Guwahati
then the airports must double ture airport for a city that is
every four or five years. Varanasi sometimes reckoned to be the
Across the country, airports Ahmadabad Bhopal world’s second largest will be
large and small are engaged in Indore
Kolkata limited to two runways. Any-
development programs that in where else in Asia, the master
Nagpur
many cases will triple or qua- plan for such an important fa-
druple passenger capacity. cility would have four.
Airport investment for the Mumbai
Pune
“Land acquisition is a night-
next five years is 400 billion Hyderabad
Visakhapatnam mare. That is why there are
rupees ($8.5 billion), around such tremendous delays in
three-quarters of which will Goa Annual Passenger Traffic airport projects in India,” says
Less Than 1 Million
be in developments financed 1 Million to 5 Million Ansgar Sickert, managing di-
5 Million to 10 Million
by both the public and private Bengaluru
10 Million to 20 Million
rector of Fraport India.
Mangalore
sectors, according to the gov- Chennai
More Than 20 Million
Fraport, already an investor
Port Blair
ernment’s Committee on Infra- Coimbatore in the country, is looking for
Calicut Domestic Airport
structure. Trichy
International Airport new investment opportunities
Cochin
New Delhi’s Indira Gandhi here—but finds that it needs
International Airport has a ca- Trivandrum Source: Airports and Airport Authority of India
plenty of patience. Sickert says
pacity of about 18 million pas- it is hard to tell when a deal will
sengers a year. That will rise be closed, or even when it will
to 60 million with the opening of a new will again meet the seemingly permanent progress to the next intermediate step.
terminal this year, and the ultimate ca- problem of land acquisition, one more As the government seeks private in-
pacity is intended by 2026 to reach 100 difficult than even the “not in my back- vestment in airports, “processes are an-
million, more than any airport is han- yard” mentality that plagues developed nounced and there are deadlines—and
dling anywhere in the world now. countries. these are missed, time and time again,”
Similarly, Chhatrapati Shivaji Inter- “India still remains a largely agrarian he says.
national Airport at Mumbai is growing economy,” says analyst Ratan Shrivas- One of India’s more unusual airport
to 40 million from 16 million, with a pos- tava of business research and consulting proposals, a planned freight facility near
sible stretch to 45 million. firm Frost & Sullivan. “If you are trying Jaipur, southwest of New Delhi, would
Capacity at Hyderabad International to build an airport in a place with culti- avoid the usual land acquisition problem
Airport will also rise, to 40 million from vable land then you have a big problem.” by being built on barren acreage.
12 million. The issue for local residents is not the The developer, Rajasthan Aviation
Looking beyond the big cities that relatively minor difficulty of noise; it is al- Infrastructure, plans two parallel run-
dominate the Indian economy, the “met- most one of survival. If there are farms on ways, large cargo handling facilities and,
ros,” the government plans to upgrade the land needed for the airport, as there potentially, associated aviation activities
35 so-called non-metro airports, which usually will be in India, then compulsory such as a maintenance, repair and over-
analysts expect will be served mainly by acquisition will deprive farmers of their haul shop.  c
54 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst
 © 2010 Lockheed Martin Corporation

B E T W E EN T HINK IN G I T W O RK S A ND P R O V IN G I T W O RK S,
T H E R E I S O N E IM P O R TA N T W O R D : H O W.

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field and sustain solutions that protect citizens, critical assets and deployed forces. Effective missile
defense is all a matter of how. And it is the how that Lockheed Martin delivers.

lockheedmartin.com/how/md
emerging markets inDia

Back To Business
Slowdown changes the shape of Indian commercial
aviation, favoring growth of budget carriers
NEELAM MATHEWS/NEW DELHi

i
ndian airlines are cautiously looking While Boeing is optimistic, it points the aircraft, too. “There is a need to look
at growth plans again as they recover to rising oil prices as a risk. Oil prices at configurations,” says Keskar. “Large
from a recession that produced com- above $90 per barrel could suppress de- business- and first-class [cabins] are not
bined losses of $2 billion in the last mand for aircraft, says Dinesh Keskar, much in demand.”
financial year. president of Boeing India. An important shift is the move to no-
The downturn has strengthened the Domestic traffic in the first four frills economy service by the network
low-cost model, with one of the three months of the year was 12% higher than carriers Jet Airways and Kingfisher
largest carriers moving more capacity a year earlier, but Boeing expects just Airlines. In May of last year, with a
into a new no-frills division. Budget air- 8% growth on international routes. domestic market share of around 16%,
lines have emerged from the recession Neither Air India nor Jet Airways is Jet Airways introduced a quick-fix re-
with a bigger share of traffic. The big- enjoying strong demand on internation- sponse to weak demand—Jet Konnect,
gest of them, IndiGo, says it wants to al routes. Jet Airways has responded to a pure budget brand to deploy on the
buy 150 aircraft. the overcapacity by leasing three Boe- most price-sensitive routes, known as
Although other Indian airlines are ing 777-300ERs to Thai Airways for Category 2 and 3 routes (which exclude
still holding back before placing further three years. Four other Jet Airways the seven biggest cities), where its
orders, sooner or later they will have to 777-300ERs are on dry lease with Turk- full-service operation could not make
go back to the manufacturers to accom- ish Airlines. money. Jet Airways also operates a
modate growth. The Ministry of Civil Signaling that the worst is over, Jet wholly owned 25-aircraft budget car-
Aviation forecasts that Indian airports Airways Chief Executive Nikos Kardas- rier, JetLite.
will handle 160 million domestic passen- sis says “The leasing of our widebody Kingfisher did not go as far as adopt-
gers in 2020, compared with 44 million 777-300ERs is among the last steps to ing the full budget model, but it con-
in 2009. That implies a 12.5% average an- fully achieving this objective of align- verted more aircraft to an all-economy
nual growth rate in this decade. ing deployed capacity with current configuration.
Domestic airlines in India operate demand.” Jet Airways’ plan worked. At least
around 400 aircraft; 150 are with gov- At Air India the process might have 185 flights of the 385 were converted to
ernment-owned Air India. This number a little further to go. The state airline Konnect flights and by October of last
has grown from 305 in March 2007. is in talks with Boeing to replace three year, Jet’s market share had jumped to
Airbus forecasts that Indian cus- 777-300ERs it has on order with 10 737- around 20%. Including JetLite, the air-
tomers will buy 1,032 aircraft between 800s. The carrier is obviously seeking line had a 26% market share.
2009 and 2028. Boeing sees demand to rebalance the type of capacity it will As market growth resumes, demand
for 1,000, and will revise its forecast in deploy, to suit the relative strength of for business travel is recovering. The
July. The company expects Indian car- short-haul markets, notably domestic result has been an unusual hybrid con-
riers to begin ordering aircraft again services. figuration on some Jet Konnect aircraft:
next year. Rebalancing can be achieved inside a small, eight-seat business class, with

Entry into global alliances will be a key development

for the Indian airline industry.

56 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst

 the rest of the aircraft devoted to be a mix of firm commit-
to no-frills economy. The ser- Indian Domestic Passenger Airlines ments and options, the order
vice is called Konnect Select. By Share of Market, March 2010 may well go entirely to Airbus
The business-class passen- Paramount to preserve fleet commonality,
gers get 102-cm. (40-in.) pitch 1% although the numbers are so
GoAir
5% Kingfisher
seating, hot meals and lounge JetLite 22% large that IndiGo could easily
access. The carrier says the 7% consider a mixed fleet includ-
business-class fares will in-
crease the revenue from such Budget carrier IndiGo ranks fourth
flights by 8-10%. SpiceJet in the Indian market, but it has
13%
Another key development signaled major expansion plans.
will be the entry of Indian
commercial airlines into glob- ing more regional aircraft.
Jet Airways
al alliances, and that process 19% Of the 44 million Indian pas-
will extend even to the budget sengers who flew last year, 27
IndiGo
carriers. “I can see a hybrid- 15% million were on routes that do
ization of budget carriers with not connect with any of the
no frequent-flyer programs country’s seven biggest air-
starting to do a loyalty pro- ports. Such routes are ranked
gram and also becoming re- Air India as Category 2 (for example, to
18% Source: Directorate-General of Civil Aviation
gional partners of the larger Kashmir, the Northeast and
alliances,” says Kapil Kaul, Port Blair) and Category 3 (the
head of the India and Middle East unit aircraft at competitive rates of interest rest of India). Category 1 has just 24 city
of Sydney-based think-tank Center for as compared to commercial financing,” pairs between the seven major metro cit-
Asia Pacific Aviation. says Nacil Chairman and Managing Di- ies, while around 2,500 routes are pos-
The global alliances have made no rector Arvind Jadhav. sibly untapped in the other categories.
secret of their view that India offers an Air India’s net savings because of the India has 261 narrowbodies and only
important gap to be filled. As Air India Cape Town Convention could be as high 20 regional jets; more than 100 routes
prepares to enter the Star Alliance, as $50 million, Boeing says. have fewer than 300 passengers a day.
the Oneworld Alliance will fill one of The Boeing 777-200LRs and 777- With 62% routes of non-metros
the largest gaps in its network with the 300ERs covered in the financing deal served by standard narrowbodies, In-
addition of Kingfisher, which expects will be operated by Air India’s mainline dia will need 200-250 regional jets in
to officially join next year. It became a operation, while 737-800s will be oper- the next decade to feed its hubs, says
member-elect of Oneworld on June 7. ated by Air India Charters Ltd. These Embraer’s Luiz Sergio Chiessi, vice
Jet Airways has preferred case-by- purchases represent the third phase president for market intelligence and
case cooperation with other air- the airline market. Embraer
lines rather than alliance mem- says it is in discussions with
bership, but the Star Alliance
says it is in discussions with Jet.
‘india will need most Indian airlines.
Regional jets should become
According to an airline industry
official, SkyTeam also has been 200‑250 regional jets more common, and would also
help to improve profitability
wooing Jet. by replacing standard narrow-
If Jet joins SkyTeam, then the in the next decade to feed body aircraft on thin routes. Air
three big Indian airlines would
be evenly shared among the its hubs,’ says Embraer’s Luiz India, SpiceJet and Jet Airways
are considering such aircraft,
three global alliances.
Financing for Indian airlines Sergio Chiessi partly to take on roles that
A320s and 737s are now under-
has become cheaper thanks to taking. JetLite, which showed a
the country’s ratification in July 2008 of Air India’s 68-aircraft fleet renewal strong turnaround in operating perfor-
of the Cape Town Convention, a treaty plan. Exim Bank previously approved mance, plans to return all seven of its
that standardizes transactions in move- a $1.2-billion financing in 2007 and a leased CRJs to the lessor by September
able property, especially aircraft and $548.8-million financing in 2008 to sup- and replace them with newer planes.
aero-engines. Air India’s holding com- port NACIL’s acquisitions of Boeing India’s government-mandated “social
pany, National Aviation Co. of India Ltd. aircraft. route” obligations force airlines to fly 10%
(Nacil) is the only one in India to make Although most Indian airlines have of their services on low-density routes.
use of it so far. refrained from ordering more aircraft Again, the opportunity for regional and
With the convention in force in India, during the recession, some are now con- turboprop aircraft is obvious.
the U.S Export-Import Bank was willing sidering fleet expansion again. But the market expansion is not
to charge less for extending $1.1 billion IndiGo, which ordered 100 A320s in without risks. In April, Embraer re-
in financing for Boeing aircraft for Air 2005, recently requested government gional jet operator Paramount Airways
ShaShanKa nanda/dial

India. The Indian government also gave approval to buy 150 aircraft, which it shut down after failing to make lease
Exim Bank a sovereign credit guarantee says would be delivered between 2015 payments, even though it enjoyed the
covering Air India’s obligations. and 2025. The aircraft order could be advantages of the higher load factors
“This support has enabled Air India made official at the Farnborough Inter- and frequencies possible with moder-
to raise finances for acquiring these national Airshow July 19-25. Expected ately sized aircraft. c
aviationweek.com/awst aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 57
emerging markets inDia

Desires and Devices

‘Make or buy’ continues to pose
a conundrum for Indian defense policy
Douglas Barrie/lonDon

The Light Combat Aircraft reflects both the extent of India’s ambition

LIvefIst
and the problems that continue to hamper such aspirations.

I
ndia’s fervor for self-sufficiency in the Fulcrum and the Saab Gripen NG. The Last month, India’s Economic Times
defense sector has been matched so winner will take the spoils of assured reported a row between the DRDO’s
far only by its inability to deliver fully work likely for more than a decade; for chief, V.K. Saraswat, and senior military
on this aspiration. most of the others, it will be a case of officers. Saraswat used the occasion of
The path is marked with failed— trying to secure smaller export sales to the National Technology Awards to up-
or ineffective—programs, while others eke out production. braid the military for its inability to re-
stretch decades beyond their original India wants to produce all but 18 of sist the “temptation” of procuring from
development and delivery schedules. the 126-aircraft order in country. The overseas. The military’s riposte was pre-
India’s Light Combat Aircraft (LCA), selected type would be kit-assembled dictable. The Economic Times quotes un-
a bellwether project, was first foreseen initially, with local content and fabrica- named officers pointing to development
as entering service in the 1990s but has tion growing as production progresses. delays as forcing their hand in having
yet to take its place in the Indian air However, a smooth transition to full lo- to buy weapon systems from overseas.
force inventory. When the government first
For Western manufactur- approved the LCA in 1983, it
ers, India’s faltering steps in
developing its defense and
European and U.S. companies was foreseen as replacing In-
dian air force MiG-21Bis air-
aerospace industrial base
might be little more than a are keen to wrest craft beginning in the second
half of the 1990s. The latter
curiosity. However, with a
$32-billion 2010-11 defense
b u d ge t — a n d e q u i p m e n t
business away from India’s type remains in service with
the air force, although obso-
lescent. A number of aircraft
spending projected at $30 bil- traditional partner, Russia were upgraded with radar
lion over the next five years, from Russian manufacturer
much of it in the international Phazotron; the ability to use
market—New Delhi is a key target for cal participation has previously proved the R-77 (AA-12 Adder) active radar-
European and U.S. companies keen to challenging. guided air-to-air missile is another
wrest business away from India’s tradi- The Indian military continues to pur- feature.
tional partner, Russia. sue a dual-track approach in upgrading While the program may be a decade-
The jewel in the crown of these pro- its inventory—looking to buy advanced plus late, “I don’t think there will ever
curements is the Medium Multi-Role systems from abroad while also support- be any admission to failure on the LCA;
Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) program ing the acquisition of nationally devel- the air force and navy will have to take
for 126 fighters; the cost of the initial oped weaponry and combat platforms. the aircraft,” says a defense industry ex-
purchase alone will be in the order of The tension among the Defense Re- ecutive. Despite the delays and the prob-
$10 billion. search and Development Organization lems with the Kaveri engine, the project
On the flight line for the contest are (DRDO), state-owned industry and the remains a source of national pride.
the Boeing F/A-18E/F, Dassault Rafale, military is not surprising, given the de- Alongside development technology
Eurofighter Typhoon, Lockheed Martin velopment problems with some national issues, the state-owned sector is hav-
F-16IN, MiG-35 derivative of the MiG-29 programs. ing to prepare the aircraft for series
58 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst
production. Indian industry executives production know-how; learning to build technical issues emerge. The Russian
have previously pointed out that the indigenous subsystems for its aircraft development timeline also relies on the
technology demonstrator and proto- was another goal. continuation of adequate funding.
type aircraft are in effiect hand-builds. The Indian air force’s Su-30MKI may The Indian emphasis appears to be
Furthermore, the internal layout and be the first aircraft to be equipped with on a two-seat PAK FA variant, possibly
packaging of subsystems within the the Astra medium-range radar-guided fitted with a mix of Russian, local and
small airframe do not lend themselves air-to-air missile. The DRDO’s Astra third-party avionics and systems. The
to ease of maintenance. program began in the 1990s and was as- aircraft, whenever it actually enters
This month, the latest LCA to fly was sociated with the LCA project. Captive- service with the Indian air force, should
LSP-4 (limited series production). It is carriage trials of the missile are believed provide a step change in capability.
fitted with the initial in-service equip- to have already been carried out on the In the meantime, the Su-30MKI—
ment, and its service introduction is now Su-30MKI, while there have also been along with whichever contender is
slated for year-end. ground launches of the weapon. Test chosen for the MMRCA program—will
Production issues are a recurring firings are slated to be carried out from provide the core of the service’s air supe-
theme within the Indian aerospace sec- the Flanker. riority and interdiction capacity.
tor. The defense ministry occasionally Beyond the LCA, the DRDO is also In late May, Russian industry sources
had to turn to Russia to provide addi- starting work on an Advanced Medium suggested that the two countries had
tional batches of the Sukhoi Su-30MKI Combat Aircraft (AMCA). A wind- agreed on a package of upgrades for
as Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) tunnel model exhibited in 2009 showed the Flanker, including the integration
tried to implement final assem- a twin-engine design reflecting some of an air-launched version of the Brah-
bly and license production. interest in a reduced radar cross mos rocket-ramjet-powered supersonic
Similar teething troubles section. Reflecting on the LCA’s cruise missile. The missile is a version
have slowed the final as- gestation period, the air force of Russia’s NPO Mashinostroenia 3M-55
sembly program for the (SS-N-26) anti-ship weapon.

ALexeY MIKheYev
air force’s BAE Systems Brahmos offiers one model
H aw k A d v a n c e d Je t of collaboration to support
Trainer. Of the 66 aircraft the development of national
ordered, 24 of the Hawk industrial capacity.
Mk. 132s were produced by A recent report by con-
BAE, with the remainder to sultants KPMG
be built by HAL. All 42 of notes that the
these aircraft were to be de- “government has
livered by 2011. As of April, stated an aspiration for
HAL had manufactured only India’s defense industry to
12. Such problems, how- become 70% indigenized by
ever, have been overcome 2010. . . . While the date may
in the past. The Jaguar need revising, government has
strike aircraft remained in long signaled its intent to pur-
batch production at HAL sue this course by the opening
as recently as 2008, nearly up of the defense industry to
three decades after the first the private sector.
license-assembled aircraft India could be the first export recipient of Russia’s PAK FA program, but “Transfer of foreign
was flown at the company the extent of genuine domestic involvement has not been determined. technologies to India is
site in Bengaluru (formerly essential for realizing the
known as Bangalore). does not expect the AMCA to be its first goal of self-sufficiency,” it adds.
Besides national pride, there is anoth- fifth-generation fighter. While Europe Access to technology will play a part
er reason why India continued to pursue and the U.S. are courted increasingly as in decision-making for the fighter pro-
the LCA: As painful as development may defense partners, New Delhi also contin- gram. One area that has already been
have been at times, there are valuable ues its strategic industrial relationship highlighted is New Delhi’s entry-ticket
lessons to be drawn for both the defense with Moscow. requirement that the winner be fitted
ministry and industry. For several years, the two states have with an active, electronically scanned
Like regional rival China, India has been discussing India’s acquisition of— array (AESA) radar. The F-16IN is be-
adopted a twin-track approach to field- and some form of participation in— ing proposed with the Northrop Grum-
ing air systems in its “make or buy” Russia’s PAK FA fighter program. The man APG-80, while the F/A-18E/F has
policy. While the goal may be self-suf- design to meet this requirement, the the Raytheon APG-78. All the other
ficiency, pragmatism—as well as aging Sukhoi T-50, is now in the early stages contenders—with the exception of the
fighter fleets—has required the ministry of flight testing. Typhoon—have a clear AESA road map,
to turn to “offi-the-shelf” purchases to Sometimes called the “Fifth-Genera- and the Eurofighter partners are in the
meet its needs. tion Fighter Aircraft” by New Delhi, the final stages of identifying their own pre-
Both India and China have used the extent of any genuine Indian participa- ferred approach.
acquisition of Russian combat aircraft tion in developing a T-50 derivative has The extent to which India wants to
to further develop a national systems yet to be made public. The aircraft has leverage the purchase of an AESA to
capability. For New Delhi, the purchase a notional in-service date of 2015 with help develop its own capability may yet
of a Sukhoi Flanker derivative helped In- the Russian air force, although this will present a challenge to some of the con-
dian industry to gain final assembly and almost certainly move to the right as tenders.  c
aviationweek.com/awst aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 59
emerging markets inDia

Double-Digit Growth
Mumbai, the country’s two largest cit-
ies, imposed curfews on private aircraft
last year. The restrictions at New Delhi
have been dropped, but business aircraft
Business aviation is moving deeper still cannot use Mumbai’s overtaxed run-
ways during the morning and afternoon
into the Indian economy peaks.
Some of the airfields that the business
Bradley Perrett/New delhi aviation community would like to use are

a
military ones that accept a few commer-
clear trend toward regulatory that are expanding in the rural parts of cial flights. But operators must apply at
reform is promoting Indian India, where connectivity is poor.” least a day before a flight, so using these
business aviation, leaving the Behind this is perhaps the biggest facilities is usually impracticable.
industry increasingly focused factor that is driving the aircraft own- India has no dedicated business avia-
on other obstacles to its ership, a change in mind-set among tion facility, although a general aviation
growth, notably infrastructure. companies and the civil aviation minis- terminal has opened at Mumbai Interna-
Operators see signs that the civil avia- try, says Karan Singh, vice president of tional Airport. Harwood regards the lack
tion authorities will maintain the pace the association and the chief executive of ground support infrastructure as a big-
of clearing away rules that have stifled of Indo Pacific Aviation. ger problem than limited airport access.
business flying. Business aircraft were traditionally “If we could get everything right, India
The shortage of experienced manag- seen in India as the luxury toys portrayed could easily be a 5,000-aircraft market in
ers and skilled workers is also easing, in popular culture, says Singh. Medium the next 10 years,” says Singh. There is
no chance that everything will be right,
but at least on the regulatory front there
is progress, thanks to increasing support
from the civil aviation ministry and its di-
rectorate general of civil aviation.

InterGlobe General Aviation, confident of the

blossoming Indian market, is negotiating for
more sales franchises.

The regulatory changes are often

small, but they add up to a significantly
easier operating environment. For ex-
ample, applications for international
flights are processed by an office that
has traditionally worked from 9 a.m. to
5 p.m., Monday to Friday. Now it is open
seven days a week, although still only in
InterGlobe avIatIon normal office hours.
encouraging the Business Aviation As- and small companies would never imag- One helicopter policy under review is
sociation for India to forecast 20-25% ine buying them, and the ministry regard- the restriction on rooftop landing. And
annual growth for the bizav fleet over ed them as an insignificant. while flying under visual rules is not per-
the coming five years. With managers now seeing aircraft mitted at night, the civil aviation minis-
This implies that India will have as a productivity tools, the ministry is try is considering allowing it—but only
perhaps 1,400 private aircraft in 2015, starting to take private aviation seri- on flights between airports.
compared with today’s 500, about half ously—and looking at ways of making In another improvement, the import
of which are helicopters. it easier to buy and operate the aircraft. duty on business aircraft has fallen to
Perhaps the clearest indicator of the Perhaps the greatest challenge ahead 17-18% from 27%.
inherent strength in the Indian market will be gaining access to runways. The The industry finds some regulations
is that the population of private aircraft economic growth that helped drive the maddening. For example, every air op-
maintained double-digit growth through dramatic upturn in business aviation is erator must seek separate approval for
the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009. also driving commercial aviation. Singh its own manuals on operations, safety,
Growth rates above 10% began in is concerned that airport capacity may security and so on. Approval takes 6-9
2003, and now it is normal for India’s not keep up and business aviation could months, even though the operators sub-
biggest companies and richest people be squeezed out. mit copies of manuals that have already
to own business aircraft, the association Since general aviation has tradition- been approved. “Why not just have stan-
says. The new wave is being formed by ally been weak in India, there are few dard manuals?” asks Singh.
medium companies. private airfields near major cities. The People involved in general aviation
“The buyers are not only large cor- business operators therefore often also complain about corruption, as In-
porations that want to go global,” says struggle to get into the main city air- dians often do. A commissioner of the
Nigel Harwood, chief executive of In- ports, which are naturally inclined to civil aviation safety bureau was charged
terGlobe, a general aviation sales and give preference to airlines. last month under the Prevention of Cor-
service business. “There are also those So the airports of both New Delhi and ruption Act.  c
60 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst
Future Force in MRO
Chinese technicians, with generally
weak English, have much less opportu-
nity to work abroad.
Air Works has hangar space for three
Indian MRO ramps up to serve its home narrow-body aircraft but is expanding to
take two widebodies up to the size of Boe-
market; the next step is international ing 777s. It has usage rights that give it, in
effect, half a hangar at each of two other
Bradley Perrett/New delhi locations, but is seeking exclusive access.

T
Beyond heavy airframe maintenance,
he Indian maintenance, repair and The usual reason quoted for India’s Air Works is moving into aircraft paint-
overhaul (MRO) industry is expand- lack of competitiveness in MRO is taxes: ing. It has bought the British painting
ing rapidly to meet the demands of import duties and value-added taxes that company Air Livery, whose expertise
its home airlines, raising the ques- non-Indian MRO shops do not have to will be used to set up a branch operation
tion of when it will begin moving pass on to their customers. Lower labor in India.
seriously into the international market. rates offset the taxes, but is it enough? Revenue has grown from $4 million in
And the question is when, not if. More than enough, says Air Works Ex- 2007, when new partners bought into and
Despite the country’s weak back- ecutive Director Suresh Soni. increased the capital of the company, to
ground in MRO, it is increasingly clear Labor rates for Indian airframe main- a projected $52 million this year and $70
that operators can thrive serving the tenance workers averaged across the million next year.
domestic market, where they have the various trades, and including all ancillary Three years ago, Lufthansa Technik,
advantages of local relationships and costs are 40-50% lower than what must planned to set up a facility at a new air-
proximity (a key issue for overhauls of

AiR WORKs
narrow-body aircraft) and are less af-
fected by the tax rules that have long
restrained the industry’s growth.
Across India, MRO shops, many fo-
cused on niche services, are under con-
struction or being expanded with new
capabilities or facilities for current work.
The industry is still small, and India is

Air Works, confident of the potential of

Indian MRO, is adding hangar space.

not yet ready to compete with its Asian

neighbors to the east for the most global
part of airframe maintenance: heavy
overhauls of wide-body airliners. But
some people in the industry think that
time is not far away.
“I expect [the] success of India in
information technology over the past
decade will be replicated in aircraft be paid in East Asia’s highly developed port at Hyderabad. The company even-
MRO, especially those areas that are economies, Soni says. Adding the taxes tually scrapped the plan for reasons that,
labor-intensive,” says Bharat Malkani, and, in the case of Air Works, the cost of a several industry sources say, had nothing
the chairman of MRO operator Max ferry flight from a major airport, the final to do with the inherent, long-term busi-
Aerospace & Aviation. “The emergence price is still decisively lower. ness case for MRO in India.
of India will shake the global market.” “At the end of the day, there is a 25% Hyderabad airport operator GMR is
The manager of one of East Asia’s saving for a C-check.” now going ahead with the project with
largest MRO shops, warily watching for The wage-rate advantage over MRO new partners: Malaysia Airlines, and,
signs of the emergence of Indian pres- shops in developing countries is some- under a memorandum of understand-
sure on the market, reckons the threat what narrower, however. Industry ex- ing, India’s Jet Airways.
is not too close. “In the market for wide- ecutives estimate that Indian techni- As with manufacturing, the blossom-
body overhauls, I don’t expect serious cians are paid only a little less than their ing of privately owned maintenance
competition from India in the next five Chinese counterparts, despite China’s shops is more telling than the expansion
to six years,” he says. “But in 10 years it higher economy-wide average incomes. of the traditional state business, in this
is quite possible.” That is because one of the great ad- case Air India.
One company to watch will be Air vantages of the country’s MRO shops— A major Air India project is an air-
Works, a 59-year-old aircraft mainte- English-speaking workers—is also a frame heavy maintenance shop that
nance company that three years ago disadvantage: Indian technicians are Boeing is building and will help start for
attracted capital from outside investors much more mobile in the world labor the airline at Nagpur as an offset for an
keen to build it up as a leading MRO market. Their wages do not, therefore, aircraft order. Boeing says it will not op-
operator to exploit the increasingly ob- bear much relationship to the low aver- erate the plant, which it will hand over
vious potential of the Indian market. age incomes across the Indian economy. to Air India.  c
AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & spAce technology/June 14/21, 2010 61
emerging markets inDia

Spacefaring Nation
of India’s 600,000 villages, the Indian
Space Research Organization (ISRO) is
overcoming years of Cold War isolation
to make considerable contributions to
India moves beyond helping international exploration efforts.
Take the Moon. ISRO’s Chandrayaan-1
rural villagers from orbit lunar orbiter provided a platform for a
U.S.-built instrument that proved once
Frank Morring, Jr., and neelaM Mathews/Bengaluru and for all there is water on Earth’s natu-

I
ral satellite. The piggyback instrument
ndia’s recent failure to orbit a satel- countryside. The push to develop a cryo- may have been provided by scientists at
lite with an indigenous cryogenic genic upper stage for its space launch Brown University in Providence, R.I., but
upper-stage engine—after a decade vehicles has more of an urban thrust, the data it delivered was retrieved by an
of trying—will slow the country’s am- and the nascent human spaceflight pro- Indian dish antenna in a radio-quiet val-
bitious space program, but it is not gram epitomizes it. As they struggle ley an hour’s drive from the center of this
likely to stop it. to find out why their new cryogenic high-tech city of six million.
Plans to send astronauts to orbit on engine apparently failed its first flight Chandrayaan-2 is already in the
an Indian launch vehicle depend on test, Indian rocket engineers are gaining works. It will include an Indian-built
making the engine work, and India’s valuable experience that government rover that will trundle another inter-
space program has a long history of planners fully expect will help underpin national instrument package across
overcoming setbacks on its own. As it India’s 21st century high-tech economy. the lunar surface, studying its chemical
does, it is becoming a respected member The excitement of sending humans into composition with sophisticated in situ
of the international spacefaring club in space is calculated to maintain public instrumentation. India will build the
its own right. interest in the effort. rocket that sends it to space, and the
Loss of the first launch vehicle to fly Even with the delay in its human orbiter that will position it for landing.
with the Indian cryogenic engine was a spaceflight plans, this South Asian na- But the lander itself will be provided by
setback, but there is so much momen- tion’s long-running program to bring the Russia’s venerable Lavochkin Associa-
tum in India’s space enterprise that its benefits of space to its rural population tion, based on the landers that took the
launch campaign continues with the or- is steadily moving beyond national bor- Soviet Lunokhod rovers to the Moon’s
biting this summer of Cartosat 2B on a ders and low Earth orbit to closer coop- surface in the early 1970s.
Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV). eration with other spacefaring nations As typified by the ongoing effort to
That mission continues India’s focus on Earth-observation and robotic deep- build an indigenous cryogenic rocket
on Earth observation from space to help space exploration. As its hardware deliv- engine, ISRO has a long history of devel-
its huge population, particularly in the ers urban expertise to more and more oping its own spaceflight hardware. But

India’s launch center on Sriharikota Island in the

Bay of Bengal is picking up the pace, doubling its
annual launch rate from the two or three in years
past to as many as seven attempts this year.

62 AviAtion Week & spAce technology/June 14/21, 2010 AviationWeek.com/awst

 it will also buy space equipment abroad,
if its managers decide that is the best
way to go. For example, India will need a
large centrifuge for the astronaut train-
ing center it is planning here, and it is
looking abroad to acquire one.
India also could buy cryogenic upper-
stage engines elsewhere —it has been
using Russian cryo-engines to launch
satellites for years. But that would de-
prive its propulsion engineers of the ex-
perience they will gain in developing the
technology. Like neighboring China, In-
dia is as interested in the economic and
political benefits of space exploration as
in the scientific take, and its leaders do
not pretend otherwise.
“The Indian space program is now on
the threshold of a transition into devel-
oping newer capabilities, perspective
and direction for ensuring enhanced
significance in the national scene and
gaining international leadership in a Technicians fuel the Chandrayaan-1 lunar was the case with Chandrayaan-1, ISRO
few selected areas,” says K. Radhakrish- orbiter at the launch site. Lessons from has invited foreign participation in the
nan, the new chairman of India’s Space that successful mission are being applied new mission, and foreign proposals are
Commission and head of ISRO. “Space to its follow-on, which will use a Russian among those in the running to fly on it.
should become the bedrock on which the lander to deposit an Indian rover on the Some Indian instruments already
national systems for societal and other Moon’s surface. have been chosen, Alex says. The 15-kg.
national imperatives are built up. Space (33-lb.), 10-watt, solar-powered rover will
should emerge as a catalyst for breeding ellite Center here, where Chandrayaan-1 include a laser ablation tool for spectral
self-reliance in critical technologies.” was built. But they are strictly in a sup- analysis of rocks and soil, and video cam-
Radhakrishnan’s remarks in a speech porting role, reprising their Lunokhod eras for navigation. Set for launch on a
at the Indian Institute of Management lander for the Indian rover that will de- Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle
Bangalore (IIM-B), his alma mater, are scend from the Indian orbiter to ride on (GSLV-Mk.II) in 2013, Chandrayaan-2
illustrated in the ambitious plan he is Indian lightweight motorized composite will follow essentially the same trajec-
INdIaN SpaCe reSearCh OrgaNIzatION phOtOS

outlining for ISRO after only half a year wheels across the lunar surface. tory to the Moon as its predecessor: a se-
in office. Building on the work of his T.K. Alex, director of the Satellite ries of longer and longer elliptical orbits
predecessor, G. Madhavan Nair, Rad- Center, says the rover—and the Chan- that will eventually bring it into the lunar
hakrishnan is overseeing a program of drayaan-2 orbiter overhead—will draw gravity well, where the orbiter thrusters
scientific and technical missions in par- on the lessons of Chandrayaan-1 to car- will circularize its orbit. The orbiter is
allel with upgrades to the communica- ry on with the science the first orbiter expected to last longer than the rover,
tions and Earth-observation spacecraft started. continuing the mapping and analysis
that are ISRO’s traditional core. “It is a continuation of the previous work started with Chandrayaan-1.
As ISRO branches out into new ac- mission,” Alex says. “The capabilities ISRO is also branching into space as-
tivities, a lot of the outside attention has will be enhanced.” tronomy with Astrosat, a 1,500-kg. orbit-
gone to its fledgling human spaceflight Chandrayaan-1 eventually failed in ing telescope set for launch next year on
work, which could make India only the orbit, just as it was beginning bistatic a PSLV. From its planned 650-km. (404-
fourth nation to send people into space. observations with NASA’s Lunar Recon- mi.) orbit, the scientific spacecraft will
While delayed by the April 15 upper- naissance Orbiter (AW&ST Sept. 7, 2009, conduct simultaneous observations in
stage failure, and funded only through p. 28). The harsh thermal environment X-ray and ultraviolet wavelengths with
unmanned orbital flights of the space- over the Moon’s surface probably con- two 20-cm. (8-in.) collecting mirrors,
craft being designed to take crews to tributed to the failure, and the lessons plus a grazing-angle mirror for soft and
space, India’s human program is mov- learned from operating Chandrayaan-1 hard X-rays. The three instruments are
ing toward selection of the nation’s first will be applied to its successor space- in preparation, and the satellite’s engi-
astronauts. The choice, Radhakrishnan craft, Alex says. For example, the new neering model has gone through thermal
says, will not be limited to military pilots, orbiter, essentially a twin of the first one, vacuum qualification at the ISRO Satel-
as in China, but open to civilian scientists will have more capable radiators to cope lite Integration and Test Establishment
of both genders as well (see p. 65). with the combined heat of the direct Sun (Isite), which houses a 6.5-meter (21-ft.)
India also is moving beyond low Earth and solar energy reflected up from the thermal vacuum chamber, a 29-ton vi-
orbit with its second lunar probe, and surface. bration table and a compact antenna
preparing to peer even deeper into the A scientific advisory board is helping test facility.
Universe with its first space telescope. ISRO select instruments for Chandray- Those facilities should get plenty of
Teams of Lavochkin engineers from aan-2, which will continue its earlier use in the years to come. A national
Moscow can be seen eating together in work in exploring the structure and program in planetary science and ex-
the spacious dining hall of the ISRO Sat- origin of Earth’s natural satellite. As ploration, known as Planex, is develop-
AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & spAce technology/June 14/21, 2010 63
 emerging markets inDia
ing long- and short-term strategies for downlink capability, the big dish boasts available from space are invaluable.
ISRO’s Advisory Committee for Space a “periscope” wave guide from its an- “When there is a disaster, the first
Research. Planex is running 15 projects tenna to receivers in its base for better thing that will go out is the power and
and considering three more. It also or- energy efficiency than would be possible the communications,” he says. “So
ganizes workshops on potential areas of with cables. you have communications established
study, and conducts research with data Beyond India, ISRO maintains a through satellites. And [next], when
already at hand. worldwide tracking network, with dedi- there is a disaster, you have relief op-
That includes ongoing analysis of the cated antennas and cooperative arrange- erations that need spatial data, which
5 terabytes of data generated by Chan- ments. That system, known as the ISRO comes from remote-sensing.”
drayaan-1 and its lunar impactor, which Telemetry, Tracking and Command net- The new Cartosat 2B is the latest in
is maintained at the new Indian Space work, was used during the Chandray- the Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) series
Science Data Center near the Indian aan-1 mission, but it was built to support of spacecraft, a follow-on to Cartosat
Deep Space Network antenna farm, the broader Indian satellite constella- 2A that was launched April 28, 2008.
Its utility will go far beyond natural di-
sasters. With a panchromatic resolution
better than 1 meter, it approximates the
international standard for commercial
remote-sensing spacecraft. The 690-kg.
satellite will generate a revisit schedule
of four to five days from its nominal
630-km. orbit, and can be dropped to
560 km. for daily passes over specific
targets. It will produce a 9.6-km. swath,
and can be tilted across or up and down
its ground track as much as 45 deg.
Once it is fully checked out, Cartosat
2A will be the 11th operational IRS plat-
form, providing data for land-use and
resource management, mapping and
disaster work. India’s Earth resources
constellation is one of

FraNK MOrrINg, Jr./aW&St

the largest in the world,
and provides some of
the most direct benefits
INdIaN SpaCe reSearCh OrgaNIzatION

to rural Indians under

the ISRO portfolio (see
p. 66).
For example, the ex-
tensive cartographic
database, coupled with
a growing database
on ground-water re-
sources, can be tapped
Indian industry built this 32-meter tracking dish for Chandra- by ISRO specialists to
yaan-1, and ISRO will use it for future scientific orbiters and deep- help villagers find the
space missions. Note the “periscope” wave guide that delivers the best places to drill wa-
signal to detectors in the antenna’s base. ter wells. Offshore from
the nation’s 7,500 km. of
and at an undisclosed second location tion aimed at serving the villages. coastline, satellite-generated data from
for backup. “It is very important,” says Rad- spacecraft like Oceansat-2—launched
ISRO experts also are focusing on hakrishnan. “Because we are using Sept. 23, 2009—feed a system designed
characterizing radiation signatures space in every walk of life, space is to help fishermen find their way to the
from planetary surfaces to develop in- touching the life of the common man, catch more efficiently, cutting search
struments for future missions. The work directly and indirectly.” time by an average of 70%, with a com-
includes the study of meteorites, such as Before being named ISRO chairman, parable saving in fuel costs.
the Sulagiri meteorite that fell in India’s Radhakrishnan was directly involved “We have operational systems in the
Tamil Nadu state on Sept. 12, 2008. in using India’s communications and country where the fishermen are given
The Indian Deep Space Network is Earth-observation satellites to help advisories on where they can go and
based at Byalalu, in a sheltered valley guide the response to the Dec. 26, 2004, fish,” says Radhakrishnan. “This infor-
below Savandurga Mountain on the out- tsunami that ravaged India’s southeast mation is available to them in the local
skirts of sprawling Bengaluru. The By- coast, and upgrade space-based disaster language, on display boards in the fish-
alalu facility boasts an 18-meter track- early warning services afterward. In a ing harbor.”
ing antenna and the 32-meter antenna country with about 200 political dis- That information can save the own-
designed and built in India for Chandra- tricts prone to some kind of natural di- er of a typical fishing boat as much as
yaan-1. With X- and S-band uplink and saster, the connectivity and broad view 2.6 million rupees ($55,278) a year in
64 AviAtion Week & spAce technology/June 14/21, 2010 AviationWeek.com/awst
 pressing On
fuel, according to the ISRO chairman.
Long recognized as valuable by com-
mercial purveyors of space-derived
geospatial information, India’s satellite
Earth-observation skills are in grow-
ing demand by international weather
Upper-stage failure trips up human
and climate-monitoring organizations. spaceflight development in India
Plans call for a PSLV this year to orbit
the Franco-Indian Megha-Tropiques Frank Morring, Jr., and neelaM Mathews/Bengaluru

I
spacecraft, which will study atmospher-

INdIaN SpaCe reSearCh OrgaNIzatION

ic energy and moisture in the tropical ndia’s human spaceflight effort has
regions. As interest grows in precise been set back at least a year by the
worldwide monitoring of sea level April 15 test-flight failure of a new in-
changes from the melting polar icecaps, digenous cryogenic upper-stage rocket
Eumetsat and ISRO have signed an engine, but so far all indications are
agreement to deliver ocean-height data the Indian Space Research Organiza-
from the forthcoming Satellite for Ar- tion (ISRO) will continue working on its
gos and Altika (Saral) spacecraft under three-seat capsule and a way to launch it.
development by ISRO and the French ISRO officials say it probably will take
space agency CNES. ISRO may also feed that long before another flight of the
Oceansat 2 ocean-winds data into the in- Cryogenic Upper Stage can be mounted.
ternational database. Development of a follow-on cryogenic
Within India, the communications rocket engine planned for Indian hu-
satellites originally developed to leap- man spaceflight hinges on success with
frog land-line installation and link the the staged combustion cycle cryogenic
rural population with the rest of the na- engine that apparently failed to ignite in
tion have advanced along with the rest the test (AW&ST April 19, p. 20).
of the space infrastructure. GSAT-4, the For human spaceflight ISRO will use
experimental satellite lost in the April a gas-generator cycle cryogenic engine
15 cryogenic engine failure, included a to power the upper stage of the latest ISRO’s human spaceflight work includes a
multi-beam Ka-band transponder and version of the Geostationary Satellite repeat of the 2007 Space Recovery Experi-
plasma thrusters for stationkeeping. Launch Vehicle (GSLV Mk.III), says K. ment to improve thermal protection technol-
Under a deal worked out by Antrix, Radhakrishnan, ISRO’s new chairman. ogy and give the Indian navy more practice
ISRO’s commercial arm, an Indian sat- India’s human spaceflight program is recovering spacecraft after a water landing.
ellite bus, the I-2K, will form the basis currently funded for four years. Plans for
of the EADS Astrium Hylas satellite to this phase of the development and test ef- neers sort out the cause of the mishap.
be launched on a SpaceX Falcon 9 for fort call for building a three-seat capsule The test flight ended just as the second
Avanti Screenmedia to deliver direct- and test-flying it without a crew. Among stage burned out, 293 sec. after launch,
to-home HDTV over Western Europe. objectives of that test will be validation and the Indian cryogenic engine was to
GSAT-8, based on the I-3K bus, is a of the environmental control and life have started a 720-sec. burn to push the
3,150-kg. spacecraft set to fly this year support system (Eclss), and the launch- 2,200-kg. (4,850-lb.) GSAT-4 experimen-
on an Ariane 5, carrying 18 Ku-band escape system that would carry a crew tal payload to orbit.
transponders and a GPS Aided Geo to safety in the event of a launch failure. It was unclear whether the new engine
Augmented Navigation (Gagan) payload “We will first make this unit with an ignited before the vehicle tumbled out of
for regional service over India. Eclss system, and will have a few un- control and fell into the Bay of Bengal.
GSAT-6, tentatively scheduled for manned flights of this module before we With a thrust of about 7.4 metric tons
launch this year, is a consumer multi- actually put a human being inside, initial- and a specific impulse of 454 sec., the
media broadcast satellite that will use ly monitoring the conditions, et cetera,” staged-combustion engine was designed
an indigenous, unfurlable antenna to Radhakrishnan tells AviAtion Week. to deliver 2,200-kg. payloads like GSAT-4
aim five beams across Indian territory. ISRO plans to use its Polar Satellite to geostationary transfer orbit.
“We are now increasing the fre- Launch Vehicle (PSLV) for the first un- Its configuration, including two steer-
quency of launch to at least six to seven manned test flight. If that is success- ing motors for launch vehicle control,
launches per year, as compared two to ful, next will come a test on the new closed-loop control of thrust and propel-
three,” says Radhakrishnan, proudly GSLV-D3 with another Cryogenic Upper lant-mixture ratio, and turbomachinery
noting that India’s space achievements Stage like the one that failed in its first spinning at 42,000 rpm., has proved
have been obtained at relatively low cost flight, carrying an experimental commu- challenging for propulsion engineers at
compared to other spacefaring nations. nications satellite. the Liquid Propulsion Systems Center
“We are able to make satellites and “That is the one that is now getting headquarters in Thiruvananthapuram.
launch vehicles at almost half the cost funded,” the ISRO chairman said two The development effort has taken
of many other countries,” he says, citing weeks before the failure. “It will be fol- more than a decade, forcing India
a study by the Madras School of Eco- lowed by the others. . . . We are asking to buy seven cryogenic upper-stage
nomics. “The amount of money that for them in phases.” engines from Russia to maintain its
has gone into the program is almost 3 The precise impact of the GSLV-D3 flight program. Five of those engines
percent of what NASA has spent on the failure on the human spaceflight sched- have been used, leaving two to carry
space program.”  c ule remains to be seen, as ISRO engi- on the flight program while the indig-
AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & spAce technology/June 14/21, 2010 65
emerging markets inDia
enous stage development continues. is being designed for three crew mem- although planning is underway for an as-
Radhakrishnan tells Indian reporters bers, initial manned orbital flights will tronaut training center here. In design-
the new technology will cut launch costs, carry two astronauts. ing the center and its training regime,
from $20,000 a kilogram today to about The current four-year effort is funded ISRO plans to draw on the experience
half that with the GSLV Mk.III. The at 12,400 crores ($2.8 billion), Radhakrish- of Indian cosmonaut Rakesh Sharma, a
gas-generator cryogenic engine should nan says. The human-rated spacecraft retired air force officer who visited the
almost triple the upper-stage thrust, to will consist of the capsule, with a 14-deg. Soviet Salyut 7 space station in a Soyuz
20 metric tons, he says. And because of cone, and a service module containing capsule in 1984 to become India’s first
five 414-newton (93-lb.- space traveler.
thrust) engines and a The center will include a centrifuge
3-4-kw. power system purchased abroad and a neutral buoy-
drawing on two rectan- ancy tank to train for microgravity op-
gular solar arrays. erations. India is working on a spacesuit
for use inside the capsule in case of loss
The Space Recovery Ex- of pressure, but extravehicular activity
periment aims to support (EVA) capability is not currently planned.
reusable vehicles, includ- Alex says most Eclss technology—gas
ing human capsules. handling and scrubbing—exists in India,
so developing the system will largely be
Much of that tech- an engineering task.
nology will be based on Before the April 15 stage failure, ISRO
systems already devel- planned its first unmanned test flight of
oped for India’s growing the human vehicle in 2014. Before that,
INdIaN SpaCe reSearCh OrgaNIzatION fleet of communications Alex says, there will be another flight
its configuration, component-testing can and Earth-resources satellites, according of the spacecraft recovery experiment
proceed in parallel with development. to T.K. Alex, director of the ISRO Satel- to gain more confidence in the thermal
“Because it is a gas-generator cycle, we lite Center, which is doing much of the protection system and the epoxy adhe-
are able to test each element separately,” work on the human spaceflight program. sive used to attach the silicon tiles.
Radhakrishnan says. “Then it will be in- The capsule will be protected from “We are in the primary stage of human
tegrated with the stage. With the staged the heat of reentry by silicon ceramic spaceflight, the configuration,” Alex says.
combustion cycle, we have to have the tiles tested on the Space Recovery Ex- “So we have right now a lot of technolo-
entire stage assembled.” periment in 2007. It will splash down in gies to be developed. What is new for us
If that work goes well, ISRO will seek the ocean for recovery by the Indian navy, is the life support system, the spacesuit
funding to press on to human tests of the Alex says, a step that was also practiced and the thermal protection system for
vehicle on the upgraded GSLV Mk.III. Al- in the 2007 experiment. the capsule. The most important thing
though the 2.5-meter-dia. (8.2-ft.) capsule Astronaut selection has not started, is to improve the reliability.”  c

down to earth
national constellation of Earth remote-
sensing spacecraft to find the best plac-
es to fish, dig wells and plant crops, and
learning vocational skills along with lit-
ISRO’s aid to India’s villages gains eracy in a dozen Indian languages. Rural
Indians can also receive diagnoses and
as space infrastructure grows treatment from skilled specialists when
their local medics are stumped. And in
Frank Morring, Jr., and neelaM Mathews/ahMadaBad, india developing the systems that deliver

a
those services, some engineers are lay-
fter almost five decades of he said in the aftermath of the Sputnik ing the groundwork for India’s increas-
working to “bring the benefits launch. “But we are convinced that if we ingly high-tech economy.
of space to the common man,” are to play a meaningful role nationally, “The gestation period for seeing the
India’s government space pro- and in the community of nations, we direct benefits on the ground is slightly
gram is able to deliver on its must be second to none in the applica- longer in space,” says K. Radhakrishnan,
early promise. tion of advanced technologies to the real the ISRO chairman. “There are several
While the U.S. and the Soviet Union problems of man and society.” spinoffs that will come from this technol-
were gearing up for their Cold War Today the Indian Space Research ogy development. You will start seeing
space race, physicist Vikram Sarabhai, Organization (ISRO) is starting to go these benefits after 10 or 15 years. It is
the father of India’s space program, ar- beyond Sarabhai’s vision, taking its first a driver for technology development.”
gued that his developing nation had a steps toward human spaceflight (see p. The spinoffs start at a facility in this
role in space, too. 65). But as it does, fishermen, farmers western India city 300 mi. north of
“We do not have the fantasy of com- and schoolchildren in India’s 600,000 Mumbai, where Sarabhai was born in
peting with the economically advanced villages are drawing on their nation’s 1919. ISRO’s Space Applications Center
nations in the exploration of the Moon increasingly sophisticated communica- is reminiscent of NASA’s Jet Propulsion
or the planets or manned spaceflight,” tions satellites and the world’s largest Laboratory, both in its campus-like ap-
66 AviAtion Week & spAce technology/June 14/21, 2010 AviationWeek.com/awst
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emerging markets inDia
Expert teachers can reach more than 50,000
classrooms—about 5,600 of which are inter-
active—via the domestic satellite network.

pearance and in some of the work that

is done there.
“Basically, our activities are the de-
sign and development of instruments
and communications transponders, and
recently we also started developing sat-
ellite navigation payloads for the Indian
regional system,” says Ranganath R. Na-
valgund, the center director. “We also
develop optical and microwave sensors
for Earth observation, which has a large
number of applications related to the
atmosphere, oceans, natural resources,
agriculture, forestry, snow and glaciers nity center or purpose-built facility, the allows a local medic to uplink electro-
and the coastal zone.” ISRO centers provide digital videocon- cardiogram and other medical data to a
Many of those applications come to- ferencing and download capability that specialist far away.
gether at ISRO facilities called Village deliver the information most needed to In perhaps their most common us-
Resource Centers, now established a particular region. At the other end are age, the centers provide villagers inter-
in more than 275 locations scattered studios, databases and other assets at active advisory services with experts
across 16 Indian states. Linked by sim- the Space Applications Center and else- at India’s agricultural universities and
ple dishes through ISRO’s Insat satellite where that generate the content. technical institutions. Farmers can find
network, the centers bring a wealth of Speciality hospitals are one source of the best crops to grow on their land,
space-derived government services to content, allowing expert physicians to and the best times to plant and fertilize
residents of the villages where the cen- help their rural colleagues with difficult them, based on a nationwide database
ters are located and those within walk- cases. In addition to the normal telecon- assembled from Earth-observation sat-
ing distance. ferencing gear, some Village Resource ellites. In many cases a farmer can find
Typically housed in a village commu- Centers have additional equipment that his field on a satellite map, and experts
can overlay in-situ and space-derived
INdIaN SpaCe reSearCh OrgaNIzatION phOtOS

data on soil fertility, climate and pest

Launch of the Edusat infestation as they develop their advice.
spacecraft on this If the farmer needs to drill a well, ex-
GSLV in 2004 gave perts can help him find the most likely
India the world’s spot to find water.
only communications The system also helps central gov-
satellite dedicated to ernment planners forecast nationwide
distance learning. crop yields, and it is designed to handle
India’s unique climate. Most of the na-
tion’s rice crop grows from June to Oc-
tober, during the monsoon season when
clouds obscure optical-satellite views of
the paddies. ISRO has used data from
Canada’s Radarsat-1 to penetrate the
clouds, and now plans to orbit its own
C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR)
on the upcoming Risat-1 spacecraft, pos-
sibly before the end of the year.
“We wanted to have our own, and with
specifications that meet our demands,”
says Navalgund of the indigenous SAR
built at his center. “That means we want
to have it more frequently. We can find
out whether the transplantation is tak-
ing place or not, which happens in dif-
ferent places at slightly different times,
and then look at how well it is growing.
Finally, we can see total production.”
Benefits from space assets are not
confined to farmers. Fishermen can use
coastal Village Resource Centers to find
the best places to fish, based on ocean
color and other data from spacecraft
68 AviAtion Week & spAce technology/June 14/21, 2010 AviationWeek.com/awst
like Oceansat 2, launched last Septem- in comparison with the 1.5-1.8 million programming load is heavy, and with
ber. The satellite database pinpoints the Indian students who are taught each the Village Resource Centers, it is not
most likely spots for fish to congregate, year through the Edusat spacecraft. limited to classroom education.
based on food and temperature, and Launched in September 2004, the “We have a unit here called develop-
provides latitude and longitude readings Insat-class satellite is optimized for ment and education communications,
fishermen can find with GPS and other multi-point education via five Ku-band to use satellite communications for pro-
satellite navigation systems. and six C-band transponders that pro- viding education and developmental ac-
Those systems also feed an inexpen- vide blanket and spot-beam coverage of tivities in the country, including women
sive rescue system developed by ISRO the entire country. empowerment, animal husbandry, wa-
that links the Indian coast guard with As of 2009, the Edusat system boasted tershed management or even related
Indian fishermen and other seamen in more than 5,600 interactive classrooms to literacy, illiteracy, all social issues,”
danger. and more than 52,000 total classrooms Navalgund says. “They work on how
“It’s a red box, a distress alert trans- receiving its programming. India has 22 you use the instrument of satellite com-
mitter for fishermen that carries a official languages, plus dialects, so the munications to do these activities.”  c
transmitter and a GPS signal,” says Na-
valgund. “It has four buttons. Each cor-
responds to a different situation—cap- THE UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE ● COLLEGE OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
sizing, fire, health problem. He will press

Congratulations, Tim!
a button so the information will come to
the coast guard, along with his position.
So based on that they can mount search-
and-rescue operations.”
ISRO built 1,000 of the systems at
5,000 rupees ($106) each, and distrib- Congratulations, Tim Gray, for winning the AVIATION WEEK MRO Laureate Award
uted them free to fishermen. “Now the for business process improvements implemented at Hill Air Force Base.
state governments are expected to do Tim won the award with the 526th Electronic Maintenance Squadron at Ogden
so,” Navalgund says. Air Logistics Center, Hill Air Force Base, Utah. The “Generators” applied lean and
Coastal regions also benefit from continuous process improvement methods that Tim learned in the Aerospace &
space data, which includes maps of deli- Defense MBA (ADMBA) program at the University of Tennessee. The Generators are
cate mangrove habitats.
one of the latest organizations to improve their work and win a prestigious industry
“A lot of people want to establish
honor after applying lessons learned at the University of Tennessee.
industries in the coastal zone,” Naval-
gund says. “They require an environ-
mental clearance from the ministry. The University of Tennessee’s Center for Executive Education offers an entire portfolio of
The environmental ministry will give business education and training programs, many of which are custom-designed or ideally
clearance only if there are no man- suited for the aerospace and defense industry. Join us and excel! http://AandDPortfolio.utk.edu
groves there. And from where do you
get the data? From the satellites, and
we provide that.”
In the small nearby town of Bopal,
the Space Applications Center has es-
tablished a regional campus to teach fu-
ture experts from other nations in the
region how to apply space technology to
their particular needs. The Center for
Space Science and Technology Educa-
tion for Asia and the Pacific offers nine-
month courses using ISRO assets in a
program set up by the United Nations
Office for Outer Space Affairs, bringing
together teachers from India and other
spacefaring nations with students from
countries as diverse as North Korea and
Kazakhstan.
Students, who also have the oppor-
tunity to learn English, are expected to
return to their homes and complete a Air Force leader and 2008 ADMBA
project using space technology to meet alum Tim Gray accepts the AVIATION
WEEK MRO Laureate Award from
down-to-Earth needs there. Once their
Overhaul and Maintenance
projects are accepted, they receive ad- Editor-in-Chief Lee Ann Tegtmeier
vanced degrees from one of India’s tech-
nical institutions.
Almost 900 students from 31 coun- We know the business...
tries have attended classes at the Bo- http://ADMBA.utk.edu
pal campus. But that number pales
AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & spAce technology/June 14/21, 2010 69
emerging markets inDia

Open For Business

However, it will take a certain amount
of time for them to [be aware of] qual-
ity. This is something we will have to
guard against.”
Cooperation in space is commercial Private Wipro Infotech, having
worked on programs for Hindustan
as well as international for India Aeronautics Ltd., expects to provide
software engineering services for
Neelam mathews and FraNk morriNg, Jr./hyderabad, iNdia Chandrayaan-2 . “This is a new area

I
for us,” says spokesman Shiva Kumar
n India, the Indian Space Research future planetary forays (see p. 62), Hossamani.
Organization (ISRO) can be a lucra- the prime business was contracted to The company will soon delve into
tive associate for large, medium and government-owned Electronics Corp. aerospace manufacturing, including ac-
small enterprises, as more than 500 of India Ltd., a leading supplier of tivators for launch products. It is also
companies now contribute to the In- ISDN network termination solutions. looking at collaborating on robot design
dian civil space program. The software was supplied by Bhabha and India‘srover to land on the Moon.
As India’s space program grows, Atomic Center. About 70% of the work Original equipment manufacturers
more business—currently not in high on the project was handled by the pri- “view India as a low-cost country but
volumes—is expected as exports rise. vate industrial giant, Larsen & Toubro, it is not, as manufacturing has to fol-
ISRO’s budget for outsourcing work to which fabricated the structure, and by low processes, and equipment is expen-
industry exceeds $1 billion this year. Godrej Aerospace, which provided the sive,” says Hossamani. “The difference
As it creates an Indian supply chain “periscope” waveguide. is people that add value through multi-
using public-private partnerships, op- However, the space industry in India skilling. Our policy is to source critical
portunity grows with the rise in parts in-house and outsource

IndIan SpaCe ReSeaRCh ORganIzatIOn

international space cooperation, non-critical ones.”
as with its Chandrayaan series ISRO’s commercial coopera-
of lunar probes. tion isn’t necessarily limited to
“It is a model of development Indian companies. Recently,
that offers a sustained order Boeing Defense, Space and
book for tapping niche capabili- Security officials spoke of co-
ty such as components, titanium operation areas for building
forgings and small actuators,” India’s capacity for manned
says Rahul Gangal, senior vice space missions, echoing Meera
president of Religare Defense Shankars, India’s ambassador
Advisory Services. “It’s not to the U.S., on the importance
about volume; it’s about value of human space exploration. In-
and future infrastructure that dia has indicated it would like
will be ready for a fast-evolving to partner with NASA on the
space industry, he says. U.S. scientists join Indian colleagues in preparing the M3 (Moon International Space Station.
The market is growing, as Mineralogy Mapper) instrument for Chandrayaan-1. It later One possible area of coopera-
is the high-end manufactur- found evidence for lunar water. tion between Boeing and ISRO
ing sector for small electronics may be the Commercial Crew
and specialized metals. There is value is still young. Often, software is devel- Development (CCDev) contract award-
added, and quality standards are high. oped and designed by ISRO. “We use ed by NASA to Boeing to initiate design
ISRO has been instrumental in develop- the industry for lower-end work like and development architecture of a com-
ing industrial capabilities to deal with coding and testing under supervision,” mercial crew transport to and from the
specialized metals and alloys that will says one ISRO official. “It is difficult to ISS (AW&ST Feb. 8, p. 23).
give a boost to the industry, adds Gangal. check bugs as it requires experience Possible Indian contributions include
ISRO is dependent on its suppliers, and knowledge.” the Launch Escape System (LES), de-
as its facilities are primarily involved “Risat (radar-imaging satellite) de- velopment of an LES vehicle health-
in integration and assembly, according velopment used industry because of monitoring system and abort triggers,
to S.M Kapoor, CEO (Aerostructures), transmitters involved,” says Kiran Ku- life-support system components, and
Taneja Aerospace and Aviation (TAAL), mar, associate director of the Space Ap- crew accommodation hardware. “Small
which has absorbed new technology to plications Center in Ahmadabad. “They components is what we would like to
provide structural stages for the Polar were built and integrated there.” do. This would mean technical collabo-
Satellite Launch Vehicle and Geostation- Risat has a C-band (5.35-GHz.) syn- ration,” said Roger Krone, president of
ary Satellite Launch Vehicle. thetic aperture radar with a spatial reso- Boeing Network and Space Systems,
Kapoor is quick to add that while the lution of 1.5 meters. during a visit to India in February.
business is not large, it is continuous for Kumar acknowledges the industry “More countries can now partici-
a medium-sized business like his. is capable of doing much more with pate in the ISS, which will be in orbit
When ISRO set up an Integrated a higher level of capability. “Being a until 2020. A broader international use
Services Digital Network (ISDN) in government entity, there are proce- of that asset would be positive,” says
2008, which included the $20-million dural problems to get work done within Krone.
32-meter (105-ft.) antenna to track timelines,” he says. “Today the indus- To the Indian space industry, that
the lunar mission Chandrayaan-1 and try can go faster, as they are focused. would mean more business.  c
70 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst
A EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE

Elusive Denouement
BY pIerre sparacO

I n early December, a French judge will announce the Con-

corde trial verdict.
Although not unusual for a case involving months of testi-
Nevertheless, Concorde became a genuine icon. This is due
partly to the aircraft’s sophisticated aerodynamics, which
resulted in what was widely considered a work of art. The
mony, the long delay in rendering a verdict has already prompt- program also provided—through its audacity and self-confi-
ed speculation about the possibility of dismissing all charges dence—what European industry needed to establish Airbus,
against the accused despite prosecutor Bernard Farret’s harsh whose goal was to garner a major share of the civil transport
requests. He asserts that two Continental Airlines maintenance market. In short, Concorde failed but Airbus succeeded. Now
mechanics, John Taylor and Stanley Ford, are guilty of negli- this is all history and, to some extent, the trial should have
gence; while Henri Perrier, a Concorde program manager for been run by aviation historians.
many years, should have helped to fix the supersonic transport’s Videos available on the Internet show the last minutes of Air
alleged structural weaknesses. In addition, the prosecutor says France Flight 4590, which crashed just after takeoff when a
the charges against two French engineers should be relaxed. punctured tire threw rubber debris into the delta wing; a tank
The trial, which ended on May 28, further confirms that spilled fuel that quickly ignited. Two engines lost power shortly
accident investigations and judiciary probes are largely in- after liftoff, the pilots lost control, and the crash became inevi-
compatible. And to this observer, the uncategorizable trial table. The sequence of events, as scrutinized by investigators
was ultimately meaningless. and judges, is not in question. The tire rupture resulted from
The Mach 2 transport momentarily lost its certification
in the wake of the July 25, 2000, crash at Gonesse, near
Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport. Its fuel tanks were rein-
forced with Kevlar liners. Air France and British Airways
restarted flights and finally ceased supersonic operations
a few months later.

In 2003, a Concorde’s return to Toulouse, where the French final

assembly line was located, was a highly celebrated event.

What finally killed the Franco-British icon was not

flight safety concerns but soaring fuel prices. It is just
enough to say that, to cross the Atlantic, Concorde con-
sumed about 1 metric ton of JP4 per passenger.
As for the historical context, feasibility studies designed
to lead to Mach 2 commercial flights began in France and
in the U.K. during the 1950s in what is now a forgotten Air FrAnCe
era, when oil was incredibly cheap. In other words, high fuel a wheel hitting a titanium wear strip, which was left on the
consumption was not considered a showstopper. In addition, runway minutes earlier by a Continental DC-10.
engineering teams in Europe and the U.S. were still convinced During the trial, all parties denied any wrongdoing, and
that speed was the airline industry’s best asset. Why plan to flight safety experts stressed that the accident was unforesee-
operate forever at Mach 0.8 when forward-looking designers able and could not justify a trial for involuntary manslaughter.
were convinced that supersonic travel was feasible? Raising technical questions nearly half a century after Con-
France and the U.K. jointly launched the then-128-seat Con- corde’s design was completed was pointless; it also under-
corde in November 1962 while Boeing (even more ambitiously) scored the grave danger of criminalizing aviation accidents.
conceived the 2707 SST, a 200-seat-plus aircraft expected to Looking beyond the public prosecutor’s requisitions, the
fly even faster than Concorde. Both programs were heavily trial could have been declared null and void before it started.
subsidized in Europe and in the U.S. Reportedly, this was a possibility considered by Andreassier
To make sense of the complex case involving a crash that oc- early this year but not publicly discussed. Now it is too late to
curred 10 years ago, judges and lawyers had to revisit a distant return to Square 1, and three men risk suspended sentences
past. When Aerospatiale and the British Aircraft Corp. launched and heavy fines, while Air France hopes to obtain financial
Concorde, Judge Dominique Andreassier and her peers were compensation from Continental.
either children or not yet born. Unfortunately, the 2707 was Although potential follow-on scenarios were not disclosed,
canceled and Concorde hardly survived the dramatic oil shock if suspended sentences are pronounced next December, the
of 1973. The European initiative evolved into an expensive com- “guilty” parties will certainly appeal. A new trial would then be
mercial failure, and no more than 20 aircraft were built, includ- scheduled for 2011-12, and the legal nightmare would continue.
ing prototypes. The end result would certainly be another mess.  c
AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & spAce technology/June 14/21, 2010 71
FACE TO FACE

C919: Fulfilling China’s

China is developing a new narrowbody aircraft, the is due to enter service in the second half of this decade.
C919. The aircraft will challenge Airbus and Boeing in Aviation Week’ International Air Transport Editor
what used to be a duopoly, but which is now targeted by Jens Flottau was given a rare opportunity to talk to
many fledgling entrants that include emerging Chinese Comac Chairman Zhang Qingwei during a meeting in
aircraft manufacturer Comac. Of all the recent propos- Salzburg, Austria. In the interview, Zhang confirmed
als for new narrowbodies, industry consensus is that plans for an entire aircraft family to be produced in
the Chinese project has to be taken the most seriously China, but also conceded that it will take the country a
by the incumbents. A Comac delegation recently toured long time to close the gap between it and its two West-
Europe to talk to potential suppliers for the C919, which ern competitors.

A
A
v iation Week & Space through 2027. China is the fastest grow-
Technology: Where are you ing commercial market. At the end of
in the Comac C919 develop- 2007, the fleet consisted of 970 aircraft.
ment? At the end of 2009, the number had
Zhang: There are five phas- risen to 1,400. 2009 was a bad year for
es planned for this project. most airlines, but even then Chinese
We have concluded the first carriers took delivery of more than 300
two, the launch and the technological aircraft. And in 2010, the number will be
and economic feasibility studies. We also greater than 260. We believe our launch
have made the important decision that it customers will include Air China, China
will be a 150-seater and have determined Eastern and China Southern. We are in
a general amount for the total invest- discussions with those airlines and they
ment. Now we are in preliminary devel- have shown a keen interest in becom-
opment, finishing the general design and ing launch customers for the C919. They
selecting suppliers. Overall, we are on will receive favorable contractual terms,
schedule; suppliers for the engines and but we will limit the number of launch
the airframe are selected. We are now orders to around 100. Only experienced
holding discussions with interior sup- airlines will be chosen. Carriers that are

COMAC
pliers who have expressed an interest interested in the C919 have shown that
in participating in the program. And we they are quite satisfied with the selec-
talked to manufacturers of special struc- tions we have made. For example, our
tural parts during our visit to Europe. decision to opt for [CFM International’s]
We have studied intensively the history Leap-X engine was applauded by the air- a greener aircraft that is also supposed
of Airbus and what they have done dur- lines. to provide a higher passenger comfort.
ing the A320 development phase so we We have to apply new technologies and
can learn from their approach. You have defined the aircraft as a increase the safety levels. We need a
150-seater. Are you looking at a lot of new technologies—not only new
When will the C919 fly? family concept that includes small- engines—to resolve all of these issues.
We expect rollout and first flight in 2014, er and larger versions? Airbus and Boeing are facing the same
with certification and entry into service We already have two projects on our kinds of concerns. Even after the Boeing
to follow in 2016. plate at this time, the C919 and the 787 enters service, there will still be a lot
ARJ21. The C919 will be the basic ver- of challenges for them. The Airbus A320
When do you expect launch orders? sion, but we will have a shorter and a and Boeing’s 737 no longer meet the de-
Following the freezing of the design, we larger version of that aircraft. The con- mands in all of those above-mentioned
will sign purchase agreements with air- cept is still being studied. aspects. The European Union is intro-
lines. We should get our launch orders ducing the emissions trading scheme
by the end of the year. That will be a Airbus and Boeing offer a broad in 2012. With oil at $70-80 per barrel,
very important milestone because then range of aircraft from short- to airlines will expect aircraft that are at
we will know even better about airline long-haul. What is your vision for least 15% better in terms of fuel efficien-
requirements. For launching customers, Comac in that regard? cy. And then there is the new standard in
there will also be risks. Our first mar- We will not launch a twin-aisle air- terms of noise levels, which will be 30%
ket target will be China. According to craft in the next 10 years. We see a lot of below what used to be the norm. Almost
current analysis, there is a market for opportunities for us, but also quite a lot all existing aircraft types have an issue
more than 2,000 new aircraft in China of challenges. The market is demanding with these standards. That can be con-
72 AvIATIOn WEEk & SpACE TEChnOlOgy/JunE 14/21, 2010 AviationWeek.com/awst
“Dream”
sidered an opportunity for us. I believe decided to support us no matter how cannot position yourself properly, then
we will be able to meet the demands that long it takes. It actually is contemplating you are in trouble.
both governments and airlines will have a law that regulates commercial aircraft
in 2020, but to do so we need innovation, production. Our aircraft is demanded by Comac not only builds the C919, you
research and development. the market and it also fulfills a Chinese also have the ARJ21 in flight tests.
dream to fly that has been part of our What lessons have you learned
Where do you see the C919 in terms makeup for more than 1,000 years. from the project?
of technological standards? We have learned a lot, but if you want
I think we are already better techno- When will Comac and the C919 be- me to summarize, it would be mainly
logically than the existing products of come a serious threat for Airbus two things. First, aircraft should be de-
Boeing and Airbus. But in terms of com- and Boeing? veloped in international cooperation, we
mercial success, we still have a long way When we deliver the C919, we will be on cannot do everything ourselves. A good
supplier management system is very
important. And second, aircraft should
comply with international standards,
Comac Chairman Zhang Qingwei also in terms of certification.

Age: 48 You are not only facing competition

from other aircraft manufacturers,
Education: Masters-Level from Northwestern Polytechnical but also from railroads in China. Is
University, Airplane Department this a serious threat for you?
The high-speed train system in China
Career: *Joined China Aviation Industry Corp. in 1995 is indeed developing fast and that will
*Vice manager of China Aerospace Science and Technology be an important challenge for the civil
Corp. in 1999; promoted to general manager in 2001 aviation industry.
*Deputy chief commander of China’s Manned China has tried several times to
Space Program in 2007 build aircraft. What makes you con-
*Chairman of Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China (Comac) in 2008 fident it will work this time?
True, China has tried many times to de-
Affiliations: Member of the 16th and 17th Central Committee velop aircraft in its history, but none last-
Communist Party of China ed very long. In the 1970s, China built the
Y-10, which was stopped in 1985. There
was a discussion of developing the AE100
with Airbus, but that was terminated
to go. The other manufacturers already the same level as Airbus and Boeing. But after four years. Another trial was the
have a brand and market presence that they will still be the major suppliers for MPC-75 in conjunction with what was
we have yet to build. In March, [Boe- the next 15 years and Comac will be the then Messerschmidt-Bolkow-Blohm. Lat-
ing Commercial Airplanes CEO] Jim newcomer. er, we cooperated with McDonnell Doug-
Albaugh was in China. We had a meet- las—first on MD-82 and MD-83, later on
ing and I got the impression that he was China is not the only newcomer, MD-90. We tried many diffierent ways.
very cautious toward new technologies. there are other projects pending Today, cooperation with Embraer re-
It appears that Boeing has not made a such as the Russian MS-21, the garding production of the 145 still exists
decision yet whether it will reengine the Bombardier CSeries and, potential- and Airbus has begun A320 deliveries
737 or build a new aircraft. They also ly, a new aircraft made by Embraer. from Tianjin. This time, we are design-
have enough orders for the 737 until How many of them will remain over ing an all-new aircraft that is to meet in-
2020. Later, he wrote in a statement on time? ternational standards. This is very new
the Boeing website that the C919 won’t Maybe some of them will exist for a for China. The government decided to
pose a threat for Boeing soon. I actually while, but for how long? That is a big launch the project in early 2006 as part
am in agreement with him because it question. A few years ago, I read an arti- of a broader national plan that included
will take quite a long time for our air- cle in a U.S. newspaper that stated there six big projects. A team was set up to
craft to reach that stage. If we want the is only space for Airbus and Boeing and study the best structure for it. After a
C919 to become mature in the market, nobody else. That is not good for the air- year and a half, it was concluded that
it will cost us more time than we have lines, there should be a third or fourth it would be best to set up a company to
spent on the development of the aircraft. option. We will definitely compete in the be responsible for the aircraft; one that
But we are sure about one very impor- international market. A lot will depend could make sure we would really meet
tant thing: The Chinese government has on positioning of the products. If you market demand. c
AviationWeek.com/awst AvIATIOn WEEk & SpACE TEChnOlOgy/JunE 14/21, 2010 73
Manufacturing

Big Shift
ing, and small-parts buildup. But it is on
the final assembly lines where Boeing
has achieved its most noticeable lean
manufacturing improvements. (In con-
Boeing’s widebody factory takes trast, Airbus uses a different approach
in Toulouse, where airplanes are as-
a cue from the 737 in Renton sembled in separate buildings.)
Everett’s revitalization began in 2005-
Michael MechaM/everett, Wash. 06 as pretty much a two-part process—

W
a “Future Factory” project to improve
hen Boeing opened a 42- the activities within the huge building. A collaboration and working conditions for
acre factory here for its large portion of the effort has been aimed employees, and the continuing evolution
747 in 1968, the Guinness at allowing the 30,000 employees to work of assembly lines here. The latter began
Book of World Records more collaboratively and safely. long before the company decided to lo-
ranked it as the planet’s The push on collaboration underscores cate a second 787 final assembly line in
biggest building by volume. As the com- a major thrust to improve efficiency of Charleston, S.C. Had Boeing’s board of
pany’s widebody jet stable expanded, the the four widebody airplane manufactur- directors voted to keep all 787 work in
factory’s roofline spread across nearly ing operations here. The current phase Everett, it would have made no differ-
100 acres (9.9 hectares/4.3 million sq. toward that end will continue into 2012. ence to the overhaul here because space
ft./399,000 sq. meters). However mea- One way to look at what Boeing is gain- was available to accommodate either a
sured, the building retains its top Guin- ing by improving its processes is that four surge or a second line.
ness billing. And yet, inside its walls airplanes are now being built in a factory Everett’s widebody factory sits on
space can be at a premium. footprint originally set out for three. the north side of Route 526. South of
Space constraint is one big reason There are nearly two dozen other the highway is Paine Field, where com-
why the company has undertaken a more buildings here connected to the main pleted aircraft are towed for testing and
than $800-million overhaul to ensure ev- factory, which is divided into 16 “build- delivery to customers. The seeds for the
ery square foot is used efficiently. Some ings,” or bays, under the same roof. makeover were sown in the late 1990s
improvements relate to energy conser- Their activities encompass propulsion when the drive for lean manufacturing
vation and the environmental impact of systems preparation, painting and seal- efficiencies resulted in the “Move to

For additional online images and videos

see an interactive version of Boeing’s Everett
factory upgrades online. Registered subscribers
should go to: AviatonWeek.com/futurefactory
where you also can access an archive of
AW&ST articles and other valuable tools.
Others should go to: AviationWeek.com/Everett

74 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst

the Lake” project at the Renton facility, ficiencies, says site leader and Boeing Everett was built for, the 747-8, comes
south of Seattle (AW&ST July 19, 2004, Vice President Larry Loftis. “Future with a new wing, a fuselage stretched to
p. 144). Factory was very much modeled from 250 ft., (making it the industry’s longest
Move to the Lake was a downsizing what was the Move to the Lake in our jet) along with new engines and systems.
project; it shifted workers in buildings Renton facility.” As a former director of When its manufacturing plan was
sprawled across valuable real estate 737 and 757 operations, Renton’s transi- under development in 2006, managers
(much of it now sold off) to a central tion was familiar ground to him. emphasized that they did not want 747-8
location. This was accomplished by re- Loftis lives with one of the results of production to become “an event.” Trans-
thinking every element of the narrow- Future Factory when he wears his other lated, that means the new jet’s projected
body 737 production line. Part of what hat at Everett as general manager of the sales rate will not be large enough to jus-
this transition did was to make Renton 777 program. Rather than overseeing the tify a major remake of its production line.
an easier place for people to work. It project from a remote offce, he and his Everyone was mindful that an airplane so
brought everyone involved in making engineering team work from a five-story big is diffcult to maneuver in a factory.
the jets closer to the center of the ac- office tower within the factory. Their Still, Boeing did want to improve the -8’s
tion—the assembly

MiChael MeChaM/aW&ST
line. Time and motion
processes on the fac-
tory floor were revised.
And the simple act of
situating engineers and
managers a quick eleva-
tor ride away from the
assembly line allows a
faster resolution of pro-
duction issues than if
they had to hike to the
line from distant build-
ings. In hindsight, the
effciencies of this close-
knit team approach
seem obvious. But they
became so only after
they were enacted.
The move carried
some risk. After all, Boe-
ing was messing with the
production of its most
successful jet. But the
company saw the chance
to make an outdated, in-
efficient assembly line Program engineering and management offices for the 787-8 will eventually move above the final assembly line
“smarter” by eliminat- in Building 40-26. An employee cafeteria, The Dreamliner Diner, is in the background at center right.
ing wasted motion and
speeding up processes. Within two years, glass-walled offces overlook the big wide- production efficiency, so two overhead
production flow times had been cut in half. bodies’ U-shaped moving assembly line. cranes were added to lift its heavier wing
Since then, a second 737 assembly line That atmosphere prevails in all the pro- and fuselage, and feeder-line techniques
has been added to keep up with commer- grams here, except for the 787. Still in de- continue to be improve. These contrib-
cial demand, along with a third to handle velopment, the program has its manage- uted to better production flows than on
military contracts. ment and engineering team in Everett’s its predecessor, the 747-400, in the 1990s.
Improvements north of Seattle at the 40-88 towers headquarters building. But The jet’s Section 44 lower fuselage
bigger Everett site—the largest of any once the airplane passes certification and lobe, wing and horizontal stabilizers
Boeing program—were a matter of evo- initial delivery milestones, its engineers are built up in the 40-21 bay, then trans-
lution. The plant had to make way for one and managers will be downsized as people ferred by overhead crane to the wing-
new program, the 787; improve the man- move on to new projects; the core team and-body join and final assembly line
ufacturing effciency of the high-volume will transition inside the factory, too. in 40-22. There, fuselage sections are
777; ready itself for the transition of the Everett’s factory changes are not added after wing/body join. Initially,
low-volume 747 into its third generation, being applied uniformly across 747s, the aircraft is tugged straight ahead
and adjust for what might be the twilight 767s, 777s and 787s. Each aircraft has until it can roll on its own landing gear.
years of another older program, the 767. its own legacy and lives with the budget Then it is pulled into one of two slanted
And in doing the latter, it had to remain constraints of its own market. So the positions for completion of assembly
flexible enough to boost production rates 866 orders in backlog for the 787 drive (AW&ST March 1, p. 42). The 747’s fu-
should the company prevail in the U.S. a quite diffierent manufacturing urgency selage length precludes employing the
Air Force’s KC-X tanker competition. than the 56 for the 767. nose-to-tail assembly process initiated
“As you go along through time, you Some diffierences pertain to size and with the 737.
keep finding new opportunities” for ef- scale. The newest version of the airplane While 747 assembly stays put, things
aviationweek.com/awst aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 75
Manufacturing
are moving around elsewhere in the cial work. To accomplish this, Boeing cess (AW&ST Feb. 14, 2005, p. 60). With
factory, starting with the 767, Boeing’s will borrow some ideas from Renton, regular production underway in 40-26, a
original mid-sized twin-aisle jet. At mid- where military versions of the 737-800 pulsing-line, nose-to-tail approach for the
decade, it was on its way out. But a surge are manufactured for the U.S. Navy’s 777 was fashioned in the unused 40-25. In
in demand by airlines needing a quick fix P-8A maritime patrol aircraft program. 2006, the switch was made.
for shortages for regional international Wing buildup for 767 tankers will flow The 777 line moves at a barely percep-
routes, along with the prospect of win- in the same fashion as wings for P-8As. tible 1.6 in./min. The idea of a “moving”
ning the KC-X competition, saved it. But fuselage work will follow a different line is largely psychological—creating a
Its final body join is now completed path. In Renton, the 737 fuselages come sense of urgency to keep the production
in the 40-24 “multi-modal bay,” mean- from Spirit AeroSystems in Wichita, pace flowing. The original 777 final as-
ing that it shares space with 777 and 787 Kan., and are pulled off to a separate as- sembly used the older, slanted assembly
production-line spillover activities. By sembly line for the P-8A in order to meet configuration of the 747 and 767. But with
February 2011, 767 work will be shifted provisions of the International Traffic in a newer nose-to-tail approach, the 40-25
to 40-32, one of the half-size bays on the Arms Regulations (ITAR). assembly line has cut 10 days off the pro-
factory’s north side. The move to 40-32 Everett builds up the 767 fuselages. “We duction cycle of a decade ago, reducing it
signals a shift to a nose-to-tail assembly will put the tanker in the same bay and to 16 days. Total factory build time, from
line. The wing buildup will continue to be flow line” as commercial airplanes, says the first spar load to the completed air-
done next door in half-size bay 40-33. Loftis. Although military versions will re- plane’s roll out, is about 53 days.
The Everett factory is bisected by ceive basic modifications on this line—one With bays 40-26 free, Boeing had
an east-west transportation alley sepa- visible difference is they lack passenger room for final assembly of its newest
rating 40-32 and the other widebody—787—without

Boeing ConCepT
north-side bays from the having to expand the plant.
larger assembly areas. The Improved manufacturing
north-side bays measure processes in the past decade
600 X 400 ft.—though some have meant smaller foot-
are smaller—while the prints for new programs.
south side’s final assembly With the ultimate load
bays are 1,000 X 400 ft. All wing test for the 787 behind
are 87 ft. high. (By compari- it, the program’s ZY997
son, the Building 88-30 be- static test article is heading
ing constructed for the 787 into its final schedule in the
in North Charleston will 40-23 bay and should see its
measure 610 X 460 ft. and last work next year. That
feature 75-ft.-wide, five-sto- When it relocates to Building 40-32, 767 production will follow the nose- space will then be claimed
ry office towers above the to-tail plan that was mastered with the 737. Military ITAR-compliant and for a 777 completion station
assembly floor—an echo of commercial assembly will be in the same building. for customer-requested out-
Everett and Renton.) fittings.
The north side has never hosted a fi- windows—any “secret” installations will Such work is now done in 40-24, which
nal assembly line, so the move to 40-32 be reserved for the Wichita factory after is destined to become the 787 surge line
brings with it the need to build a 240 X basic assembly is completed here. Wichita in 2012. Both the added capacity in Ev-
80-ft. hangar door to roll out completed specializes in military programs. erett and at North Charleston’s 787 fac-
aircraft. Though that sounds large, it is This plan means requirements at Ev- tory are set to go live in the same year.
not when compared to the six doors fac- erett’s 40-32 bays need not be as strict as If so, Boeing will actually have three 787
ing Route 526, which sport iconic airplane Wichita’s. But, they will be ITAR-compli- final assembly lines, although it is not yet
murals. Four of the early-generation bays ant. Among other restrictions, non-U.S. clear at what point the surge line will be
measure 300 X 81 ft.—about the size of a citizens will not have access. activated. North Charleston’s capacity is
U.S. regulation football field. Two others, How commercial and military pro- being added to ensure a production rate
for the 40-25 and 40-26 bays, were added grams sort out in the mix of daily 767 of at least 10 787s per month.
later and, at 350 ft., are even wider. production will depend on how the All will be capable of assembling the
One other task will be necessary to commercial volume holds up. By 2011, three 787 models in any order, including
welcome 767 final assembly to the north the 787 should be flowing to customers, the standard-size 787-8, stretched 787-9
side. There is enough room to tow it and demand for the 767 is likely to trail and the shortened 787-3. The latter is a
alongside the building, but not to turn off. Still, there could be some overlap theoretical airplane since it has lost its
it at the end. So Boeing will slice the in building commercial and KC-X air- only customer. However, Boeing has not
corner off its 40-54 propulsion systems frames, Loftis says. officially killed it yet. Had the company
building. Fortunately, leaning out the The 40-25 and 40-26 bays were built elected to keep all 787 production here,
propulsion process has provided the when the factory was expanded in the 40-24 would have accommodated it, but
sacrificial space. 1990s to accommodate the 777. At the there would be no surge line.
Current 767 demand justifies a lei- time, Boeing expected it would need With pre-assembled major assemblies
surely pace of building one aircraft per both to meet a production rate of seven flowing into Everett, the 787’s final as-
month. But should Boeing prevail in the aircraft per month. But process im- sembly line was distinguished by a few
$35-billion KC-X competition against provements allowed one bay to suffice. simple tools spread over four nose-to-tail
EADS’ Airbus A330, that pace will pick However, the success of Renton’s 737 stations. In the early days, large amounts
up. Loftis says one 767 line will simul- moving-line concept prompted a re-ex- of completion work traveled to Everett
taneously handle military and commer- amination of the 777 manufacturing pro- from 787 suppliers and the dream of
76 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst
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Business aviation
simple-tool, open-floor final assembly
met the reality of beefed-up scaffolding as
workers struggled to push the airplanes
through production. Boeing has not giv-
en up on its initial factory concept, but
people familiar with the program expect
it to be refined with new tools when the ediTed BY WilliaM garveY
second line opens in North Charleston.
The amount of people employed at
Everett constitutes a decent-sized city.
Future Factory was aimed at “creating the european Business aviation association (eBaa) has set a July 15
new, open and desirable work areas in deadline for submissions to its pilot fatigue survey. eBaa plans to present the
the main factory building to enhance results to the european aviation Safety agency (eaSa), which is writing regula-
collaboration, improve the employee tions on pilot flight times for implementation among all eaSa members be-
experience and support overall produc- ginning in June 2012. Current regulations vary among states. historically, rules
tion efficiencies,” says a description on for business aviators are generally the same as those for airline pilots. eBaa
Boeing’s web site. hopes the survey will result in regulations more tailored to business aviation
In practice, the effort has been put
into effect in multiple ways. Bays are operations. The web-based survey, which is being overseen by sleep specialist
color-coded and improved signage is in Mark rosekind, a nominee for a seat on the U.S. national Transportation Safety
place. Cafes were added or renovated Board, would be a challenge to the sleepy-headed since the 10-page document
and given whimsical names by employ- includes 70 questions. Some 700 pilots have answered the survey with a month
ees, such as Dreamliner Diner and Twin- to go; the target is to collect 1,000 responses.
Aisle Cafe. Workspace was converted for
conference and customer meeting areas. a one-tiMe rotary wing reject keeps setting popularity records. Bell He-
A dry cleaner, AT&T phone center, no- licopter slated June 15 for delivery of its 1,000th Model 407 light, single-engine he-
tary service and a computer clinic that licopter. Launched in

Bell heliCopTer
employees can access for personal busi- 1995, the 407, accord-
ness are all on-site.
ing to Bell, became the
Some improvements have an inside-
Seattle flavor. Starbucks may be the fastest-selling helicop-
city’s leading coffee export, but rival Tul- ter worldwide and re-
ley’s was invited to install three cafes to mains among the most
satisfy this big crowd’s caffeine cravings. popular, employed on
Outside the factory, Boeing has des- missions ranging from
ignated separate driving lanes for de- law enforcement and
livery trucks and employees, cutting
medevac to executive
down on fender-benders. Shuttle buses
bring workers in from parking lots to cut transport. Last year the
down on pedestrian traffic around the 407 was selected as
factory’s busy portals. The company es- Iraqi air force’s armed
timates that 84 million commuter miles scout helicopter. The
have been eliminated through the use of four-blade machine is a descendant of the 1960s-vintage OH-4A, which lost the U.S.
alternative programs. Army’s light observation helicopter competition. After a stylish fuselage redesign by
The Everett enhancements flowed
Bell, the aircraft found commercial success as the Model 206 JetRanger, which the
over to Paine Field, where four aircraft
stalls were added to accommodate the Army subsequently fielded as the OH-58A Kiowa.
aircraft-development push from the while supportive of faa’s Move to a satellite-Based air traffic manage-
combined 787 and 747-8 programs. Ev-
ment system, the aircraft owners and pilots association thinks the “out” element
erett now has 29 aircraft stalls.
Loftis is the third manager to over- of adS-B delivers little or no benefit to general aviation aircraft operators. heidi
see the Everett upgrades, following Dan Williams, aopa’s senior director of airspace and modernization, says adS-B out
Becker and Russ Bogue. Some of their “really doesn’t get the general aviation aircraft operator anything more than
major pushes involved environmental what he gets today” from the ground-based aTC system. So, many of these own-
and energy-saving improvements. One ers question investing $10,000 or more (the price of equipment and installation
of the biggest changes was the installa- is still unknown) to do the same thing.
tion of 35 25 X-27-ft. skylights. Loftis says
this old-fashioned addition helps cut the netjets, Berkshire hathaway’s proBleMatic fractional aircraft owner-
energy bill because many adjacent lights ship program, is consolidating NJI Inc., which operates the company’s Gulfstream
can be doused during daylight hours. large-cabin fleet, with NetJets Aviation in Columbus, Ohio. Most NJI functions will
Future Factory also has cut 2,000
move from Savannah, Ga., and South Carolina to Columbus, according to NetJets
tons (700 truckloads) of solid waste an-
nually, recycled 6,400 tons of solid waste Chairman and CEO David Sokol. Pending regulatory approvals, the consolidation
(2,100 truckloads) and reduced Everett’s is to be completed in October. NetJets posted a loss of $711 million in 2009, but
electricity usage by 3 million kw.  c hopes to be profitable this year.
aviationweek.com/awst aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 77
DEfEnsE

Stop and Look

the cliff and fixed-wing
UAVs cannot circle,” says
Gopinath. “You need to be
able to hover and stare.” The
A ‘hover-and-stare’ unmanned aircraft is U.S. has developed tactics
to hover the MAV so it can
finding expanded missions in Afghanistan look sideways into a culvert,
he says, and use the down-
Graham WarWick/WashinGton draft from its ducted fan to
blow away any brush block-
ing the entrance.
Use of the T-Hawk has
highlighted some limitations.
Early versions required op-
erators to get out of their
armored vehicle twice, once
to start the MAV and again
to launch it; the second expo-
sure could prove fatal. Block
RQ-16 T-Hawk ducted-fan MAVs have effectively 2 reduced the launch proce-
countered improvised explosive devices in Iraq. dure to a single step, and in
Iraq MAVs are launched from
within a four-vehicle protec-
U.S. ArMY tive box. But in Afghanistan,

I
n the fight against roadside bombs, a that patrol the roads used by convoys to where there are culverts every 200 meters
“hover-and-stare” unmanned aircraft detect and tag IEDs for disposal. (656 ft.), the roads are not wide enough.
that has proved valuable in Iraq is be- New uses that have emerged include Now Honeywell is developing a way to
ing fielded in Afghanistan as manu- deterrence and deception, says Prabha launch the MAV from within an armored
facturer Honeywell works quickly to Gopinath, director of strategic cam- vehicle, eliminating the need to get out.
expand capabilities, overcome limita- paigns for unmanned aircraft systems at “There are a ton of design challenges”
tions and avoid exposing operators to Honeywell. Deterrence involves buzzing he says, but the launch under armor ca-
insurgent attacks. roads and using the MAV’s noisy pres- pability is planned to be available by the
Deliveries of the latest Block 3 version ence to prevent insurgents from planting end of this year.
of the RQ-16 T-Hawk vertical-takeoff- roadside bombs. Deception involves fly- The company is also looking at a new
and-landing micro air vehicle (MAV) ing air vehicles along roads that are not sensor integrating day electro-optical
begin in July. One hundred earlier sys- then used by convoys. (EO) and night infrared (IR) with a laser
tems have been delivered to Iraq and 50 T-Hawks are also being used for force pointer. IR would be able to see through
to Afghanistan, for explosive ordnance protection. In urban combat, the MAVs dust obscuring the EO sensor and the
disposal missions. are used to look down side streets and laser would be used to indicate targets,
Each system includes two small block access, preventing forces being out- the spot being visible using night-vision
ducted-fan air vehicles and a portable flanked, he says. France has completed goggles. The MAV’s engine, meanwhile,
ground station. The 20-lb. T-Hawk pro- an evaluation of the system that included is being converted to burn heavy fuel as
vides about 40 min. of flight, carrying a perimeter security mission, with air ve- avgas is not readily available. Develop-
interchangeable electro-optical or in- hicles being launched when unattended ment of the injection modification is to
frared cameras. A stabilized, gimbaled ground sensors detect intruders to con- be completed by year-end.
sensor was introduced with Block 2 and firm a threat and call in fire support. There are two limitations Honeywell
Block 3 adds an encrypted digital data The IED detection and disposal mis- cannot change—endurance and noise.
link for command and control and video. sion is different in Afghanistan, says The man-portable MAV was conceived to
The T-Hawk, which the U.S. Army Gopinath. In Iraq, roadside bombs are be small and light, so endurance is limited
also calls the gMAV (gasoline-powered made from unexploded ordnance con- to 50 min. and, because of the small duct
micro air vehicle), was fielded to inspect taining metal that is relatively easy to height, noise is 65 dB. at 100 meters. “En-
and identify improvised explosive de- detect. In Afghanistan all the leftover durance and noise define the missions it
vices and act as an “eye in the sky” to Soviet ordnance been used up, he says, can be used for,” says Gopinath. “It can’t
coordinate unmanned and human ord- and bombs are made from ammonium do persistent surveillance or stealth, but
nance disposal teams. As U.S. forces nitrate and potassium chloride fertilizer. it excels in stopping and inspecting stuff.”
have become familiar with the aircraft, The biggest threat is from bombs as In addition to the U.S. Army and Navy,
other uses have emerged. large as 2,000 lb. inside culverts under the T-Hawk is used by U.K. forces in Af-
The original operating concept was the roads. These are large enough to de- ghanistan. Poland has placed an order
to launch the MAV upon seeing a suspi- stroy an armored vehicle, and can take for use in that theater, and France is
cious object, such as a tire on the road, weeks of packing, but are hard to detect “working [on] the paperwork,” he says.
sending the vehicle up to look for other because compared with the flat terrain The Block 3 system is also part of the
indicators of an imminent attack, such of Iraq, the mountain roads of Afghani- U.S. Army’s Brigade Combat Team
as a spotter, “trigger man” or insurgent stan can have a rock face on one side and Modernization Increment 1, with plans
with a cell phone or camera. The T-Hawk a sheer drop on the other. to field the UAV with nine brigades if
is also part of route clearance packages “Unmanned ground vehicles fall off testing is successful. c
78 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst
Civil Spin-Off
of the A400M, but the length—16 me-
ters, not counting the loadable 5.5-meter
ramp—is less.
A key requirement for it to go ahead
Japan looks at getting Western support with the project is getting certifica-
tion with data held by the Ministry of
for its proposed civil airlifter Defense, Kawasaki says in a document
presented at the same meeting.
Bradley Perrett/Beijing The ministry says it supports the idea

K
of civilian sales of the aircraft to help pre-
awasaki Heavy Industries is try officials reviewing the programs. serve the industrial base and to reduce
considering a joint venture That market forecast excluded Rus- unit costs.
with a foreign aerospace com- sia and other parts of the former Soviet About 300 companies supply the
pany to build and support a Union, which could be expected to buy XC-2 and the related project for the
minimum-change civil version Russian and Ukrainian aircraft. It also Kawasaki XP-1 maritime patroller, the
of its XC-2 airlifter, the YCX. ignored China, which is developing its manufacturer says.
The partner would share the cost of in- own jet airlifter and would never buy But a third Japanese military air-
creasing the production rate beyond the Japanese aircraft even if it were not plane, the ShinMaywa US-2 search and
two to four aircraft a year that Kawasaki (AW&ST Nov. 26, 2009, p. 26). rescue flying boat, is also a candidate for
would handle on its own, in addition to an The YCX would replace An-124s, Il- civilian work, in fire-fighting, passenger
intended Ministry of Defense order for 76s and L-100s civil variants of the C-130 transport or multi-purpose versions.
up to 40 aircraft of the military version. Hercules, Kawasaki says. The ministry has ordered five of the
Kawasaki would handle sub-assembly, A JADC survey of about 50 potential aircraft, which, with four Rolls-Royce
design, development, systems procure- buyers in the U.S., Europe and Middle AE2100J engines and a gross weight of
ment, sales and marketing, while the East revealed interest in the aircraft for 47.7 tons, is closely comparable to the 49
partner performs final assembly, some transporting semi-conductor production ton Jiaolong flying boat under develop-
manufacturing, flight testing and adapta- equipment, electrical generators, excava- ment by China’s Avic General Aircraft
tion to special missions. Both would make tors, aerospace parts and race horses. (AW&ST, Sept. 28, 2009, p. 34).
parts and support the aircraft in service.

KawaSaKi
The proposal aims to improve the
marketability of the aircraft by harness-
ing the support infrastructure of an es-
tablished Western manufacturer.
Kawasaki does not name potential

Kawasaki Heavy Industries believes the XC-2

would be an adaptable commercial airliner.

partners, and it is not clear whether it

has identified any, but the aircraft would
fit well as a big brother to any civil ver-
sions of the Lockheed Martin C-130J or
Embraer’s proposed KC-390. Bombar-
dier and Alenia also focus on the com-
mercial aircraft market. Moreover, little modification would be The Japanese Aerospace Develop-
The YCX would have a maximum necessary. “A converted XC-2 freighter ment Corp. forecasts demand for 130
weight of about 140 tons, almost the has the possibility of entering [the] civil- medium fire-fighting aircraft in this
same as the Airbus A400M. The Boe- ian freighter market in almost the same category by 2025.
ing C-17 weighs up to 265 tons at takeoff, configuration,” Kawasaki says. As with the YCX, the clear challenge
the Ilyushin Il-76TF 210 tons and the An- The configuration does not need to be for the Japanese manufacturer is to cut
tonov An-124 about 400 tons. changed, says Kawasaki. But it adds that production costs enough to support
The role of the YCX should be strictly “different cargo bay specifications” could competitive pricing. The ministry says
civilian. With the election of the Demo- be needed for transporting structures. it is paying 10 billion yen ($109 million)
cratic Party of Japan last year, it is no The XC-2 may be better suited for for each US-2, including equipment pro-
longer clear that there will be an early civil use than other military airlifters, vided by the government.
move to relax a ban on military exports, since it uses commercial engines (a pair ShinMeywa says the cost could fall to
despite a push in the former Liberal of General Electric CF6-80C2s) and has 3 billion yen per unit if the US-2 replaced
Democratic Party administration to do light and simple landing gear without all 180 comparable water-bomber flying
so (AW&ST, June 1, 2009, p. 25). unneeded soft-surface capability. boats currently in service.
The aircraft would address a mar- On the other hand, the short produc- The passenger US-2 is intended to
ket for 230 units up to 2026, according tion run of the military version raises the carry tourists to Japan’s remote islands
to the industry’s coordination body, question of whether the aircraft could be and would seat up to 38. If it enters air-
the Japanese Aircraft Development built at anything like a competitive price. line service, it would be the first flying
Corp. (JADC), in a report to a meeting The cargo bay cross section—4 X 4 boat to do so since the Short Solent of
of government, academic and indus- meters (13 X 13 ft.)—is very close to that 1946.  c
AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & spAce technology/June 14/21, 2010 79
SPACE TECHNOLOGY
of Technology and nurtured while he
served in NASA’s astronaut corps be-
tween 1980 and 2005. Since leaving the
space agency, Chang-Diaz has pursued
commercial development under a series
of Space Act agreements.
Ad Astra’s strategy is to graduate
from the municipal power grid as a

Ad Astra is proposing an asteroid rendez-

vous mission with an unmanned scientific
spacecraft powered by Ad Astra’s VF 200-2, a
backup for an engine demonstration mission
to the International Space Station in 2014.

source of electricity to space solar power

demonstrations. The ultimate goal is a
200-megawatt space nuclear reactor as
the source of electricity to generate the

Ad AstrA roCKEt Co. Photos

plasma thrust for fast missions to Mars.
The company would develop and lease
the plasma rockets for missions that
range from satellite-servicing and orbit-
al debris removal to slinging spacecraft
on accelerated deep space missions with

Close Encounter
scientific payloads and human explorers.
A mission to the red planet that is
shorter than two months could reduce
the health risks to astronauts posed by
cosmic and solar radiation as well as
Amid Obama’s NASA reorientation, the weakened bones and muscles they
experience during prolonged weightless-
one company eyes a rendezvous ness. Missions to Jupiter would be cut
to three years from six.
Mark Carreau/Houston Political, professional and even public

A
interest in Ad Astra has ballooned in the
d Astra Rocket Co. is assess- flight version of the rocket, the VF-200-1, aftermath of the VX-200’s success, the
ing a cooperative unmanned that Ad Astra now expects to launch to report in October by the panel led by
rendezvous mission to a yet- the International Space Station in mid- former Lockheed Martin CEO Norman
to-be-selected asteroid with 2014 for further testing, under provi- Augustine to assess NASA’s post-shut-
a spacecraft and scientific sions designating the U.S. segment of tle-era strategy and 2011 budget that
payload powered by the experimental the station as a national laboratory. A Obama presented to Congress on Feb. 1.
Variable Specific Impulse Magneto- successful deployment of the VF-200-1 The controversial spending plan cancels
plasma Rocket (Vasimr), according to would free Ad Astra to furnish a backup NASA’s Constellation back-to-the-Moon
Franklin Chang-Diaz, the seven-time plasma drive, the VF-200-2, for an aster- program in favor of an extended, multi-
space shuttle astronaut who serves as oid mission in partnership with NASA. billion-dollar research and development
the company’s CEO and president. The Boeing Co. would provide a high-ef- initiative that would lay the groundwork
Ad Astra’s efforts come against the ficiency, lightweight solar power source for a flexible path of exploration to des-
backdrop of President Barack Obama’s developed for the Defense Advanced tinations including near-Earth asteroids
recently announced plans for NASA to Research Projects Agency’s Fast Ac- and comets, Mars and its moons as well
begin working toward a manned aster- cess Spacecraft Testbed program for a as the Earth’s Moon.
oid rendezvous, circa 2025, that would mission launching a year later. Space station operations would be ex-
mark humanity’s first foray beyond the “This is all very new stuff we are dis- tended from 2016 until at least 2020 as
Moon (AW&ST April 19, p. 28). cussing,” says Chang-Diaz. “The point is well, and NASA would increase funding
On Sept. 30, 2009, the company’s VX- we have not really quite decided what for research.
200, a two-stage, 200-kw. prototype of to do with the second engine,” he says. The efforts already underway at Ad
the Vasimr, reached full-power plasma “Once the first engine is up and flying, Astra’s offices near Johnson Space Cen-
thrust under the control of a supercon- we are thinking maybe the second en- ter here seem a natural fit for Obama’s
ducting magnet in vacuum conditions. gine could be used in another spacecraft, new strategy. Chang-Diaz, who sup-
The achievement marked a critical mile- a free-flyer of some sort.” ports the new vision, has found himself
stone in a long-running effort by Chang- Ad Astra was incorporated five years at odds with an established aerospace
Diaz to develop an electric propulsion ago to advance the development of elec- community that was assigned to lead
drive that could one day transport hu- tric space plasma propulsion started Constellation and now faces thousands
mans to Mars in 39 days. by Chang-Diaz while he was a graduate of job losses with the looming retire-
The VX-200 is a demonstrator for a student at the Massachusetts Institute ment of the space shuttle.
80 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst
 “NASA is in a very interesting po- t h e co m p a ny ’s
sition right now, with a huge opportu- business model.
nity to really dream like it’s supposed “What we are
to, to really map out a bold mission seeing right now
architecture that looks deep into the is a great deal
future, while not getting bogged down of interest from
with whether we are going back to the NA S A t o h e l p
Moon or to Mars. Instead, we have a in the develop-
really big vision of access to the entire ment, and we are
Solar System,” he says. “But don’t get d eli ght ed with
me wrong, This is very strong medicine. that,” he says.
It’s too bad they chose this moment to “ B u t w e d o n’ t
do this change of course, right at the want to place all
moment when the shuttle will be shut of our criticality
down. It’s something we should have on that potential
done 20 years ago.” help. What if we
NASA Administrator Charles Bolden, put NASA in the
a former astronaut who flew twice with critical path, and then two years from Ad Astra’s experimental VX-200 achieved full
Chang-Diaz, has mentioned Ad Astra’s now, they change their mind? NASA will two-stage power on Sept. 30, 2009, following
research in support of the Obama strat- still be there, but we will be dead. We several months of testing in the company’s
egy publicly several times. Bolden and are marching down a specific plan with 150-cu.-meter (5,297-cu.-ft.) vacuum cham-
Chang-Diaz’s long association and the very clear goals and very clear results. ber near Houston.
emerging promise of Vasimr as a deep Achieving those goals and results is es-
space propulsion source has led to a re- sential to our survival.” ever, Vasimr marshals and directs the
cent round of meetings between com- Vasimr operations share a history thrust using the field lines created by a
pany representatives and propulsion rooted in efforts to develop power with surrounding superconducting magnet.
experts from NASA’s Marshall Space nuclear fusion. The plasma rocket can The engine generates long periods of
Flight Center and Glenn Research Cen- be fueled by hydrogen, deuterium, he- high-energy thrust from relatively small
ter as well as mission planners at the lium, xenon or argon. Ad Astra’s choice amounts of fuel, far exceeding the effi-
Johnson Space Center. is argon, which is heated with radio ciency of a traditional chemical rocket.
While he welcomes the collaboration, waves until the atoms disassociate into Ad Astra and NASA have rolled back
Chang-Diaz says he will not stray from a plasma in the rocket’s first stage. The by a year—until mid-2014—plans to
fuel is further energized in the second launch the VF-200-1 to the space station.
Ad Astra’s VF 200-1 Vasimr plasma engine stage with radio waves, raising the tem- The plasma rocket would launch as the
rests on the Z-1 truss of the International peratures of the expanding plasma to first commercial user of a larger power
Space Station. The company is working with anywhere from hundreds of thousands and propulsion test platform proposed
NASA on a mid-2014 mission that would to millions of degrees. by Ad Astra last year in response to a
launch a commercial power and propulsion The temperatures greatly exceed the space station national laboratory an-
test platform to the station for a demonstra- limits of traditional rocket nozzles to nouncement of opportunity.
tion of the 200-kw. plasma engine. constrain and direct the thrust. How- The proposed 10,000-lb. platform,
mounted on the station’s Z-1 truss, would
offer as much as 200 kw. of power for up
to 15 min. of high-power testing. Elec-
tricity generated by the station’s solar
arrays would be stored in platform stor-
age batteries. The preliminary design
review has been rolled back by a year
as well, until mid-2011, to accommodate
plans for new commercially sponsored
research on the space station.
Meanwhile, Vasimr’s success depends
on overcoming other technical hurdles.
Though the high-temperature plasma
is constrained by magnetic field lines,
some of the ultra-hot particles reach
the inner walls of the engine.
Ad Astra has turned to the fusion re-
search community at MIT and the Oak
Ridge (Tenn.) National Laboratory in
pursuit of nonconducting ceramics that
can withstand the extreme heat.
“It’s like putting your coffee mug in
the microwave. You want the coffee to
get hot, not the mug,” Chang-Diaz says.
“It’s exactly the same problem.”  c
aviationweek.com/awst aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 81
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 Aerospace Calendar
to submit Aerospace calendar listings, you can now register online
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June 28-July 1 —American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics 40th Fluid +1 (212) 904-3225/+1 (800) 240-7645 ext. 5
Dynamics Conference and Exhibit; 27th AIAA Aerodynamic Measurement and Ground (u.s. and canada only)
Testing Conference; 28th AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Conference; 41st Plasmadynamics
July 19-25—Farnborough 2010.
and Lasers Conference. Hyatt Regency McCormick Place, Chicago. Call +1 (703) 264-7500
sept. 27-oct. 1—International
or see www.aiaa.org
Astronautical Congress. Prague.
June 30-July 1—World Business Research’s International Defense Logistics Conference.
sept. 28-30—MRO Europe. London.
Hotel Le Plaza, Brussels. Also, July 26-28—Performance-based Logistics Conference.
nov. 1-3—A&D Programs Conference.
Marriott Crystal Gateway, Arlington, Va. Call +1 (888) 482-6012 or see www.wbresearch.com
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July 5-7—BCI Aerospace’s International B-to-B Meetings. Ramada Plaza Tunis, Tunisia.
nov. 2-3—A&D Supply Chain Conference.
Call +33 (14) 186-4190, fax +33 (14) 603-8626 or see www.bciaerospace.com
Phoenix.
July 7-8—Canadian Business Aviation Association’s Annual Convention. Sheraton Cavalier
nov. 2-4—MRO Asia Conference and
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Exhibition. Singapore.
July 13-15—CAE Flightscape 2010 Users Conference. Hilton Lac Leamy, Gatineau, Quebec.
nov. 16-21—Airshow China. Zhuhai.
Call +1 (613) 225-0070, fax +1 (613) 225-0098 or see www.flightscape.com/about/conferences.php
Dec. 8-9—A&D Finance Conference and
July 13-16—Society of Experimental Test Pilots’ 46th Annual European Symposium.
Exhibition. New York.
Imperial War Museum, Duxford, England. Call +1 (661) 942-9574, fax +1 (661) 940-0398 or see
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July 16-18—Royal International Air Tattoo. Fairford, England. See www.rafcte.com/airshow
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International Airport. Call +1 (937) 898-5901, fax +1 (937) 898-5121 or see www.usats.org
July 26-Aug. 1—2010 Experimental Aircraft Association Airventure. EAA Aviation Center,
Oshkosh, Wis. Call +1 (920) 426-4800 or see www.airventure.org
July 27-30—American Astronautical Society’s International Space Conference of Pacific-
basin Societies. Delta Montreal Hotel. Call +1 (703) 866-0020 or see www.astronautical.org
July 29-30—New-Fields Exhibitions’ Unmanned Aircraft Systems Defense and Tactics
Conference and Exposition. Hilton Washington Dulles Airport Hotel. Call +1 (202) 536-5000
or see www.new-fields.com/UAS/index.php
Aug. 3-5—FAA Civil Aerospace Medical Institute’s Cabin Safety Workshop. Monroney
Aeronautical Center, Oklahoma City. See www.faa.gov/data_research/research/med_
humanfacs/aeromedical/cabinsafety/workshops
Aug. 16-19—National Defense Industrial Association’s 13th Annual Space and Missile
Defense Conference and Exhibition. Huntsville, Ala. Call +1 (256) 382-5823 or see www.
smdconf.org
Aug. 16-20—Terrapinn’s Aviation Outlook Africa. BMW Pavilion Convention Center, Cape
Town, South Africa. Call +27 (11) 463-6001 or see www.terrapinn.com/2010/aviationza
Aug. 24-27—Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International’s Unmanned
Systems North America. Colorado Convention Center, Denver. See www.auvsi.org

Advertisers in this issue Forecast International . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 (Between pages 56 & 57):

Aero Gear Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Lockheed Martin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 DRS Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56GM1
AIAA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Ontic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Wyle Labs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56GM2
Airbus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44-45 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP . . . . . . . . . .26-27 (Between pages 64 & 65):
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Farnborough International Airshow . . . . . . . . 17 United Technologies, Pratt & Whitney . . 32GM1 *-Domestic edition.
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AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & spAce technology/June 14/21, 2010 85

 VIEWPOINT

Don’t Go Ballistic Over Start

W
hether the wording of the New pleted, or even planned. “Hope” may have
Start treaty contains restric- been an excellent campaign motto, but it
tions on U.S. missile defenses is should not be the guiding principle for a mul-
fast emerging as the critical issue for the tibillion-dollar national security initiative.
Senate as it considers ratifying the treaty. And if future tests do prove it to be an
Yousaf Butt is a physi- Given the stakes involved, it is worth paus- empirical failure, will the administration
cist at the Harvard-
ing to see whether the infatuation with mis- really roll back missile defense? Unlikely.
Smithsonian Center
for Astrophysics and sile defense—on both sides of the aisle—is The long-range deployment plans appear
has served as a fellow really justified. The thinking is that these to be unencumbered by any strict, real-
on the Committee on “defenses” will somehow protect us from istic testing requirements. Although the
International Security the enemy’s nuclear missiles. They will not. administration certainly pays lip service
and Arms Control at the The New Start treaty, which would lead to to the “fly before you buy” idea, in reality it
National Academy of reductions in nuclear stockpiles, should not is buying before flying. J. Michael Gilmore,
Sciences. be held hostage to this tempest in a teapot. the director of the Pentagon’s operational
The Obama administration’s missile de- test and evaluation office, has said, “It will
fense plan would ramp up—over the next take as many as five to seven years to col-
decade or so—the deployment of a mix of lect” just the necessary data to determine
sea- and land-based interceptors around whether the administration’s planned mis-
Europe to guard against missiles launched sile defense architecture is sensible.
from Iran. But neither type of interceptors Another major downside to fielding the
has been tested under real-world conditions. untested interceptors is that other nations
Land-based defense has had a particu- may feel their nuclear deterrent is being
larly bad test record, having regularly partially undermined—even if those inter-
failed, even in highly scripted tests, and ceptors are largely ineffective, and theoreti-
even when defense contractors were hold- cally aimed only at Iran and North Korea.
ing military operators’ hands. Most un- For instance, Yao Yunzhu, a senior colonel
nerving, there has been no element of sur- in the People’s Liberation Army and cur-
rently a fellow at Harvard, recently said she
Fielding expensive, strategically useless missile believes China’s response to U.S. missile de-
fense plans would be to increase its nuclear
defenses could lead to a new arms race. stockpile and field missile defenses of its
own. That would lead to a vicious circle of
prise in any tests, and no realistic decoy further nuclear stockpile increases by Rus-
warheads have been successfully tested. sia, India, Pakistan and, possibly, also the
So what would real testing look like? It U.S. Such “collateral damage” of missile de-
ought to completely separate the launch fense is hard to square with Obama’s vision
and intercept teams, and include a salvo of of a nuclear-free world.
missiles, each incorporating multiple decoy On the other hand, since even one nuclear
warheads and other countermeasures. The missile penetrating the defense would visit
timing, technology and trajectory should unacceptable damage upon the U.S., the ad-
be a surprise to the intercept team. And a ministration’s plan would not really change
sea-based system should be tested during our strategic calculations. Even the best-
rough weather. As Philip Coyle, a former designed system cannot guarantee that zero
top Pentagon test official, said, “What if missiles will not get through. The danger is,
North Korea launched their . . . missile at of course, that our policy makers may think
night or in bad weather or when the Sun missile defense actually works and go out on
is shining at a disadvantageous direction?” a limb in their regional calculations.
And in 2000, Robert D. Walpole, the CIA Contrary to his promise, Obama has sprin-
national intelligence officer for strategic kled holy water over an expensive, untested,
and nuclear programs, said any country strategically useless and highly destabiliz-
with the capability to develop a long-range ing missile defense concept. Are false peace
missile could also incorporate decoys and of mind and increased worldwide nuclear
countermeasures on that missile. stockpiles really worth the billions of dollars
Contrary to what President Barack this will cost U.S. and European taxpayers?
Obama promised during his election cam- The New Start treaty should not be scuttled
paign, the administration appears to have over perceived restrictions in missile defense
signed onto missile defense for “theological” when it is clear that it is a conceptual and
reasons without any realistic testing com- technical boondoggle to begin with. c
86 aviation week & space technology/June 14/21, 2010 aviationweek.com/awst
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