The Next Frontier

for Climate Change

Science
Insights from the authors of the
IPCC 6th Assessment Report on knowledge
gaps and priorities for research

Independent
Expert
Report

Research and
Innovation
The Next Frontier for Climate Change Science:
Insights from the authors of the IPCC 6th Assessment Report on knowledge gaps and priorities for research
European Commission
Directorate B — Healthy Planet
Unit B.3 — Climate & Planetary Boundaries

Contact MOUSSON Mathilde

Email [email protected]
[email protected]
European Commission
B-1049 Brussels

Manuscript completed in February 2024.

1st edition.
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 EUROPEAN COMMISSION

The Next Frontier for Climate

Change Science
Insights from the authors ofthe IPCC 6th Assessment
Report on knowledge gaps and priorities for research

Birgit Bednar-Friedl, Goran Berndes, Joern Birkmann, Luisa F. Cabeza,

Felix Creutzig, Delphine Deryng, Wolfgang Kiessling, Silvia Kreibiehl,
Volker Krey, Gerhard Krinner, Simone D. Langhans, Franck Lecocq, Elena
Lopez Gunn, Jochem Marotzke, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Jan Christoph
Minx, Anna Pirani, Alexander Popp, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Roshanka
Ranasinghe, Keywan Riahi, Joeri Rogelj, Sonia Seneviratne, Jim Skea,
Trude Storelvmo, Peter Thorne, Maarten Van Aalst

edited by
Anna Pirani, Katarzyna Drabicka, Mathilde Mousson,
Margarita Ruiz Ramos, Robin Markowitsch
with the support of Larissa Lorinczi, Adrian Leip and Paola Lepori

Directorate-General for Research and Innovation

2024 Healthy Planet
TABLE OF CONTENT
INTRODUCTION�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������4
CLUSTER 1:
EARTH SYSTEM PROCESSES, CLIMATE FEEDBACKS AND CLIMATE SENSITIVITY��������������������8
1.1  nderstanding and quantifying near-surface fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum �������������������������������10
U
1.2 Assessing feedback mechanisms in the climate system and their dependence on climate state�������������11
1.3 Quantifying the methane budget and monitoring progress on methane reductions�����������������������������������������12
1.4 Better understanding early instrumental period changes�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������13
1.5 Understanding how the Earth system components will respond to a state of net zero emissions�����������14
CLUSTER 2:
CHANGES IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM, INCLUDING ABRUPT AND IRREVERSIBLE CHANGE�15
2.1  odeling atmospheric circulation and precipitation changes in a warming climate������������������������������������������17
M
2.2 Representing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in climate models������������������������������18
2.3 Identifying abrupt, irreversible, and committed changes in the cryosphere�����������������������������������������������������������19
2.4 Extending high-resolution proxy reconstructions with a focus on the mid-Holocene����������������������������������������20
CLUSTER 3:
RISKS AND VULNERABILITY ACROSS TIME AND SPACE������������������������������������������������������������������21
3.1  nderstanding future global climate risks for individual systems, sectors and for compound risks��������23
U
3.2 Understanding the dynamics of exposure and human vulnerability at regional and local scales��������������24
3.3 Cascading, compound and transboundary risks and adaptation�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������25
3.4 Evaluating the intrinsic risks of climate change responses ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������26
3.5 Advancing knowledge on risks from overshooting 1.5°C and
options to bring temperatures back down����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������27
3.6 Exploring societal resilience in a volatile world amplified by climate change��������������������������������������������������������28
3.7 Utilising paleo records of past impacts of climate changes to refine future scenarios�����������������������������������29
CLUSTER 4:
ADAPTATION: EFFECTIVENESS, PATHWAYS AND LIMITS, LOSSES AND DAMAGES���������������������������30
4.1  nderstanding adaptation effectiveness and limits at different degrees of warming��������������������������������������32
U
4.2 Probing the limits of nature-based solutions under different climate-change scenarios��������������������������������33
4.3 Considering population response and coastal adaptation strategies in the face of rising sea levels������34
4.4 Advancing climate science relevant for loss and damage������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������35
4.5 Integrating climate resilience in post-extreme events reconstruction������������������������������������������������������������������������36
4.6 Linking early warning to long-term adaptation�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������37
CLUSTER 5:
WATER, BIODIVERSITY, NATURE-BASED SOLUTIONS AND
THE COASTAL ENVIRONMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE����������������������������������������������������������������������������������38
5.1  rojecting climate impacts across natural systems: terrestrial, marine, and freshwater�������������������������������40
P
5.2 Integrating water management and adaptation responses���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������41
5.3 Projecting and monitoring soil moisture and ecosystem drought processes to build resilience�����������������42
5.4 Strengthening best-practices for freshwater ecosystems, biodiversity and
climate response strategies����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������43
5.5 Improving projections of future coastal change with Earth observations����������������������������������������������������������������44
5.6 Multi-scale modeling coastal changes in Arctic regions under warming conditions������������������������������������������45

2
CLUSTER 6:
TOWARDS MORE COHERENCE IN CLIMATE POLICIES:
INTEGRATING IMPACTS-ADAPTATION-MITIGATION����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������46
6.1 Integrating mitigation and adaptation action across scales��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������48
6.2 Bridging the gap from Earth system science to impacts and
low-emissions climate resilient scenarios����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������49
6.3 Investigating the interplay of mitigation and adaptation through integrated scenarios with improved
representation of climate impacts��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������50
CLUSTER 7:
SECTORAL AND SYSTEMS TRANSITIONS������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 51
7.1 Improving global assessments of urban responses to climate change���������������������������������������������������������������������53
7.2 Investigating the contribution of demand-side measures in expediting the shift toward
climate neutrality, with a particular focus on the role of digitalisation���������������������������������������������������������������������54
7.3 Informing the politics and economics of phasing out fossil fuel infrastructures�������������������������������������������������55
7.4 Reducing energy demand and quantifying materials and embodied carbon in the building stock and
other infrastructure���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������56
CLUSTER 8:
LAND USE, AGRICULTURE AND CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL��������������������������������������������������������57
8.1 N urturing the potential of land-based mitigation and adaptation�������������������������������������������������������������������������������59
8.2 Fostering sustainable use of biomass for climate change mitigation������������������������������������������������������������������������60
8.3 Achieving global climate, biodiversity, and health objectives by optimising
the management of food systems�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������61
8.4 Assessing long-term viability of agroforestry as a solution to climate change and food security �����������62
8.5 Designing carbon dioxide removal policies and governance��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������63
CLUSTER 9:
EQUITY AND JUST TRANSITIONS���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������64
9.1 Attributing climate impacts in a climate justice context����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������66
9.2 Improving the consideration of equity and justice in adaptation strategies to build resilience�������������������67
9.3 Improving integrated assessment models to represent different dimensions of justice and equity��������68
9.4 Designing just transition policies for agriculture, forests and other land use��������������������������������������������������������69
CLUSTER 10:
ACCELERATING CLIMATE ACTION: LEVERS AND ENABLERS����������������������������������������������������������70
10.1 C ommunicating and translating climate science to policymakers and general public�����������������������������������72
10.2 U nderstanding social dynamics, including tipping points, as drivers of climate action���������������������������������73
10.3 A ccelerating near-term climate action to meet long-term goals�������������������������������������������������������������������������������74
10.4 A ssessing the performance of climate policy instruments using
rigorous evidence synthesis methods����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������75
10.5 S hifting to climate-resilient development��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������76
10.6 Investigating how global shocks (fail to) enable climate action���������������������������������������������������������������������������������77
10.7 M obilising climate finance through improved understanding of financial sector behaviour�����������������������78
CLUSTER 11:
CLIMATE INTERVENTION�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������79
11.1 A
 ssessing interdisciplinary research on solar radiation modification�����������������������������������������������������������������������81
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������82

3
INTRODUCTION

2 023 is now confirmed as the warmest year on record. This period was marked by unparalleled
temperature anomalies and witnessed a disturbing escalation in the frequency and magnitude
of devastating climate impacts. In Europe, Slovenia was hit by the worst-ever floods on record with
a month’s worth of rain falling in less than a day; Spain, Portugal and Greece experienced extreme
heat and were badly scarred by wildfires and Switzerland recorded a new altitude record for the
freezing point of well above 5,000 meters. Many parts of the Middle East saw temperatures
of above 50°C. The global ocean witnessed unprecedented sea surface temperature anomalies,
fuelling numerous typhoons, cyclones, and hurricanes. In parallel, global GHG emissions and
atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) also hit new highs, putting the world on track
for a temperature rise far above the goals of the Paris Agreement, underscoring the urgent need
to step up adaptation action, while at the same time making rapid, immediate, and deep economy-
wide cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Accelerating the transition to climate neutrality and resilience is at the heart of the European
Green Deal. By placing environmental sustainability at the centre of the European policy agenda,
this ambitious initiative aims to provide a holistic response not only to global warming, but also
to biodiversity, pollution, and resource depletion crises. Informed by science, the implementation
of the Green Deal will continuously rely on robust scientific evidence to guide policymakers,
businesses, and citizens in the massive transformations ahead.

By helping us understand how the climate system works, how it will change over time and how the
impacts of climate change will materialise, climate science is fundamental for enabling informed
decisions about how to reduce emissions and how to adapt to a warmer, more unpredictable, and
more inhospitable world. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
is an example of how instrumental science is for shaping effective policies and mobilising action.
The IPCC reports not only represent an essential source of information about climate change, but
they also help to forge consensus among governments and play a central role in international
climate diplomacy.

L BUbiDlliG
on
ET
A 0
10
~ T
TO
€

HORIZON CLIMATE ACTION over €1 billion

EUROPE will be invested into
the EU’s research ~35% advancing
and innovation
climate science
programme
2021-2027 The results of this research
will inform future
IPCC assessments

4
The journey towards sustainability calls for a major research and innovation effort not
only to provide a robust scientific basis to guide the transition process, but also to assess,
develop, deploy, and scale up the solutions and to nurture the behavioural change and
political will on which the transition hinges. Horizon Europe, the European Union’s (EU)
current research and innovation (R&I) funding programme, acknowledging the importance
of the R&I contribution to fighting climate change, earmarks at least 35% of its nearly
EUR 100 billion budget to climate action, out of which over EUR 1 billion will be invested in climate
science.

It is the role of Directorate-General for Research and Innovation (DG RTD) to maximise the impact
of the programme by financing activities that are scientifically, socially and politically relevant
and by focusing the available funding on the most critical areas. In the domain of climate science
this means addressing knowledge gaps and advancing our understanding on how the climate
system works, how it is influenced by climate change, what options we have to pursue ambitious
mitigation and adaptation action, and how to mobilise society towards transformative change.

To inform the design of future calls on climate science, DG RTD has assembled a group of leading
European scientists involved in the IPPC 6th assessment cycle, to identify the most pressing research
themes in climate change arising from the latest IPPC reports. This document compiles a synthesis of
independent recommendations spanning the physical climate science, impacts and risks, adaptation,
and mitigation, while promoting multi-disciplinarity and synergies between the various themes.
The report is structured by key themes (“clusters”), many of which tackle the topics assessed by the
different IPCC Working Groups and address cross-cutting or particularly pressing policy issues such
as equity and justice, losses, and damages1, overshoot of temperature targets, transitions in the land
sector, limits to adaptation or climate intervention. As a result, this compilation represents a precious
resource for shaping a more strategic approach towards EU investment in climate research under
Horizon Europe and beyond.

Investing in climate science is investing in our future by

securing the necessary knowledge to shape the climate
action that is required.

This report, building on state-of-art scientific expertise,

is invaluable for maximising the impact of EU-funded
R&I and for generating the evidence-base for guiding the
implementation of the European Green Deal.

Marc Lemaître,
Director-General for Research and Innovation (DG RTD)

1. “Losses and damages” refer broadly to harm from observed impacts and projected risks whereas “Loss and Damage” refers to political debate under the
UNFCCC, which is to address loss and damage associated with impacts of climate change in developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the
adverse effects of climate change. In the research context of this report, unless specified otherwise, we primary focus on “losses and damages”.

5
 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

The IPCC, to which many of the world’s leading climate scientists contribute, plays a unique
role within climate science and in informing policy decisions. First convened in 1988 by the
United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organisation, the
IPCC is tasked to provide policymakers with regular (circa every 5-7 years), comprehensive,
and authoritative assessments of the scientific basis of climate change and its impacts
as well as available human response options, building on the research and technical work
of thousands of scientists, and increasingly also practitioners, worldwide. The IPCC does
not carry out any research of its own and the authors work pro bono to provide an expert
assessment of the published literature.

The Panel’s work has been instrumental in establishing unequivocally the link between
human activity and climate change. With each successive assessment cycle, reports have
seen an increased confidence in the findings, based on continuous progress in climate
science, including modeling, process understanding, observations, and empirical studies,
and have provided the knowledge basis for reinforced warnings and calls for action. The
IPCC reports thus represent an essential source of information for the implementation of
the Paris Agreement.

The latest IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6), consists of three special reports on global
warming of 1.5°C2; climate change and land3; and the ocean and cryosphere in a changing
climate4, and a three-part "climate report": the first instalment, on the physical science of
climate change5, was published in August 2021, delivering the starkest warning so far, and
described by the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres as a “code red for
humanity”. The second part, approved in February 2022 and focusing on impacts, adaptation
and vulnerability6 warns that any further delay in climate action “will miss a brief and rapidly
closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all”. The third
report7 that came out in April 2022 is centred on mitigation and highlights how the world
must take deep and rapid cuts in emissions to keep global warming in check.

Finally, the Synthesis Report8 concluding the 6th assessment cycle was adopted in March
2023 and summarises the main messages from across the entire AR6.

2. https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/
3. https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/
4. https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/
5. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
6. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/
7. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/
8. AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023 (ipcc.ch)

6
HOW TO READ THIS DOCUMENT
This document is a comprehensive although non-exhaustive summary of independent expert
recommendations on research priorities in climate science, inspired by, but not limited to, IPCC
authors’ experience in contributing to the 6th assessment cycle. It means to provide inspiration for
Directorate-General R&I and other funding bodies in the identification and selection of research
priorities.

The research gaps, presented in a form of one-pagers, have been grouped together around
common areas to form 11 thematic clusters. Each one pager briefly describes the nature of the
research gaps and its policy relevance and signals how the thematic is pertinent for the three
IPCC Working Groups (Earth system science (WGI); Impact, risks and adaptation (WGII); Mitigation
(WGIII)). The order of presentation is random, with no prioritisation between or within Clusters.

For each research gap the relevance for five cross-cutting policy issues as set out in the Horizon
Europe legal basis is flag(s)ged to signal that the gap has high potential for tackling these
horizontal priorities. The five flag(s) categories include:

▶ international cooperation (see below)

▶ digitalisation and artificial intelligence (AI) (e.g., where advanced computing and digital
technologies, incl. machine learning, sensors, and satellites, can enable advances in climate
research)

▶ ecosystems and biodiversity (e.g. climate-biodiversity nexus, including NBS for mitigation and
adaptation)

▶ social sciences and humanities (e.g., where human behaviour, policy, governance, economics
etc. are at stake)

▶ gender (e.g., where distributional aspects are discussed)

It should be clarified that whereas international cooperation on any topic addressing climate
change might seem by default applicable given the global nature of the problem at stake, in
the report we apply a more restrictive approach by flag(s)ging only topics where participation of
non-EU countries as essential members of research consortia would be necessary for successfully
tackling the specific research issue at stake. By extension, an absence of such a flag(s) does not
mean that international cooperation would not be needed or welcome to address the gap in
question.

By design, the fiches within clusters are closely interrelated. In addition, where strong thematic
links exist between research gaps across the different clusters, these have been signaled by means
of cross-references to facilitate the readability of the report.

7
CLUSTER 1:
EARTH SYSTEM PROCESSES, CLIMATE
FEEDBACKS AND CLIMATE SENSITIVITY

T he latest IPCC report concludes that: human activities have unequivocally caused widespread
and rapid changes in all components of the Earth system. The pace and scale of the observed
changes across the climate system are unprecedented over many thousands to millions of years,
with recent intensification of these trends. Advancements in comprehending the Earth system
are imperative to assess how the climate may change in the future, to understand the regional
implications, and to formulate effective strategies for both adaptation and mitigation action.
Research on multiple lines of evidence will be key for narrowing uncertainties in estimates of key
variables such as climate sensitivity, Earth system feedbacks, and biogeochemical cycles.

Observations and paleoclimate records together with climate models are all essential tools to
advance our understanding of the changing climate. Progress is required to secure high quality
stable and sustained observational measurements over multiple decades, to increase the quality
and exploitation of reanalyses, and to develop integrated composite products that bring added
value and address data and knowledge gaps. Past climatic changes can provide uniquely valuable
context - enhanced and extended paleoclimate records are needed to help us understand how
the components of the climate system work, how unusual present and future conditions are and
what the committed climate change is, particularly in the slowly responding ocean and cryosphere.

8
Better understanding of key processes and feedbacks in the climate system and our ability to
model and observe them is necessary to understand past and current changes in the climate
system, and to explore future scenarios. For example, near-surface fluxes between the ocean and
atmosphere are still not well known with broad ranging
implications, including for quantifying global surface
Advancements in
temperature changes. Another fundamental source of
uncertainty in climate sensitivity and for estimating comprehending the
carbon budgets are cloud feedbacks. Earth system are
imperative to assess
Core challenges persist in the development and utilisation
of diverse datasets, arising particularly from in-situ how the climate may
observations, satellite products, paleoclimate proxies, change in the future,
modeling exercises, and other research activities that
to understand the
generate data as part of their deliverables. Collaborative
efforts are essential to improve the development, use regional implications,
and interoperability of these datasets, addressing issues and to formulate
related to heterogeneity, sustainability, and curation.
effective strategies
Such improvements would also benefit the Copernicus
Climate Change Service and other similar products. for both adaptation
and mitigation action.
Tracking progress in stabilising global temperatures is
critical for guiding climate policy and requires the ability
to accurately assess and monitor natural and human caused sources and sinks of GHGs, the
related processes and feedbacks as well as the carbon budgets. As net zero targets are becoming
increasingly prominent in the EU and international policymaking, we also need to better understand
how the Earth system will respond to a state of net zero CO2/GHG emissions. This knowledge will
be critical for defining the future emission reduction efforts under the Paris Agreement.

9
1.1 Understanding and quantifying near-surface fluxes of heat,
moisture and momentum
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

There are substantial gaps in our observational and theoretical understanding of near-surface
fluxes, with broad ranging implications for the quantification of key processes and their future
projections in climate models. This is the case over both the ocean and land surface, with sparse
direct measurements of near-surface fluxes, particularly over the ocean. The related key processes
are parameterised in climate models, often based on similar assumptions. There are major
opportunities for progress in measuring these fluxes. For example, large-scale wind farm facilities
include high quality meteorological instrumentation that can augment sparse measurement
capabilities. Higher resolution models may also allow for key processes to be explicitly modelled
rather than be parameterised.

A critical knowledge gap is how the relationship between sea-surface temperatures (SST) and
marine air temperatures (MAT) has evolved and will continue to evolve in a warming climate. It
is critical to reconcile these observations to understand and improve early estimates of observed
changes. Climate model simulations consistently suggest that MATs should be warming faster
than SSTs. However, all models parametrise the processes at this scale and all parameterisations
are based upon the same similarity theory, leaving open the possibility of a common systematic
bias in the simulations. Observationally-based estimates, for which MAT-based estimates are
considerably less mature than their SST-equivalents, suggest the opposite behaviour – that
SST warms more than MAT in the long term. Theoretical understanding of the expected spatio-
temporal behaviour is overall lacking, leading to uncertainties in long-term surface temperature
change estimates.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Surface flux exchanges are a key part of the meteorological
and climatic conditions at the surface where we live and work, Digitalisation/AI
and their better understanding will substantially improve
regional projections and help to address overall model biases. Related fiche(s)
Changes in surface fluxes will directly affect human health 5.5
and comfort, bio-spheric health, and agricultural production
amongst others.

10
1.2 Assessing feedback mechanisms in the climate system and
their dependence on climate state
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Climate feedback mechanisms in the Earth system need to be well understood to robustly quantify
Earth’s climate sensitivity to increasing temperatures. While many of the feedbacks have reduced
uncertainties over recent years thanks to scientific progress and are now assessed with high
confidence, others remain uncertain. This is particularly the case for cloud feedback mechanisms,
for which a strong dependence on climate state and patterns of warming have been identified.
Whilst there has been progress in understanding marine low-cloud feedbacks, historically a major
contributor to the total cloud feedback uncertainty, other cloud regimes remain major sources of
uncertainty, for example the climate feedback resulting from the amount of tropical high-clouds.

Furthermore, climate models still have considerable biases in climatological temperature and
cloud macroscopic properties, in particular over land and over the Southern Ocean. There are
confounding issues, on the one hand between the number of different cloud regimes in the
climate system and the challenge of representing these in climate models and, on the other hand,
the need for a consistent treatment of clouds in models. Observational campaigns necessarily
focus on one specific cloud type, while climate modeling is geared at representing different cloud
processes and regimes, and their aggregate effects across scales. Research strategies for how
to propagate process understanding from individual cloud regimes into demonstrated climate
modeling improvements across multiple cloud regimes would be highly valuable.

The reduction of uncertainties related to cloud feedbacks since IPCC 5th assessment cycle has
contributed to the reduced uncertainty of the assessed equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in the
latest IPCC report. However, the assessment also noted a distinct possibility of a warming climate
increasing the strength of these feedbacks. This means that the upper end estimates of the likely
ECS range are weakly constrained. More research is also needed into how future changes of SST
patterns could determine the “effective” climate sensitivity, with implications for the assessment
of ECS.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Assessments of the Earth climate sensitivity are of great
relevance for understanding how the climate will respond to Digitalisation/AI
increasing warming, as well as for estimating the remaining
carbon budgets in the context of meeting the goals of the Related fiche(s)
Paris Agreement. Improvements in the understanding of cloud 5.3, 6.3
processes are also central for better representing the water
cycle in climate models, which, in turn, enables more accurate
assessment of future changes in precipitation.

11
1.3 Quantifying the methane budget and monitoring progress on
methane reductions
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Methane is the second largest contributor to global warming. Its atmospheric concentration has
increased by around 170% since pre-industrial times. Owing to its relatively short lifetime, changes
in methane concentration exhibit substantial inter-annual to multi-decadal variations. The global
methane cycle remains relatively poorly understood with challenges in determining the causes of
many year-to-year and even longer timescale variations, including the role of natural variability,
feedbacks, and permafrost thawing.

There is a substantial opportunity to reduce uncertainty in critical aspects of the global methane
cycle, such as better monitoring and quantifying anthropogenic emissions from diffuse sources
which are thus far poorly quantified. This will support the development of policy-relevant indicators
of the magnitude and speed of climate and methane cycle interactions that may, in turn, reinforce
human-caused warming. Accordingly, there is a need to develop a European-wide methane
assessment capacity, building on advances in modeling and observation of the methane cycle
and on improved cooperation and communication between the relevant scientific communities.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

A better understanding, monitoring, and modeling of International
atmospheric chemical processes will result in improved cooperation
science base for methane cycle analysis, enhancing the
quality of emission inventories reported to the United Nations Digitalisation/AI
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This will
be critical for verifying national and regional contributions
towards the Global Methane Pledge agreed at the COP26 in Related fiche(s)
Glasgow, led by the United States and the EU and for forming 2.3
a robust policy advice.

12
1.4 Better understanding early instrumental period changes
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

There is a rich history of observing weather and climate globally, particularly over Europe. However,
much of this data exists solely in hard copy or image form and thus is presently unexploitable. It
is likely that as much data exists for the period prior to 1950 as is currently in digital form. These
“unknown knowns” from the observations can be resolved through their rescue and integration
into national, regional, and global holdings.

There are efforts underway to rescue data across Europe, but scaling up is needed using novel
approaches such as classroom-based exercises while taking care to address the quality and
homogeneity of the early observations. This could be extended to also rescue data from Africa
based upon the recently recovered fiche and film records from the African Centre of Meteorological
Application for Development effort led by the Belgian meteorological service, as well as efforts to
digitise comprehensively European records. Once digitised, these data could be analysed to form
both new and extended observational datasets of a broad range of essential climate variables.
It would also provide an improved observational constraint to reanalysis products at global and
regional scales.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Longer-term and higher quality datasets on retrieved past International
observations and records will enable greater insights into past cooperation
significant climatic events. It will increase climate literacy
through participatory learning techniques across countries Digitalisation/AI
and offers significant potential to strengthen international
cooperation, in particular with Africa.
Related fiche(s)
2.4, 3.7

13
1.5 Understanding how the Earth system components will
respond to a state of net zero emissions
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Net zero targets are being used to guide climate policy in the coming decades and as such,
they are taking an increasingly prominent place in national and international climate debates. At
present, however, it is unclear how exactly the Earth system will respond to a state of net zero
CO2 or GHG emissions.

The latest IPCC report assessed the "zero emissions commitment" (ZEC) of CO2, which is the
additional warming projected to occur after a net zero CO2 emissions state is achieved and
maintained, with a best estimate of zero additional warming, but with an uncertainty range of
up to 15% of further warming. Much of the evidence underpinning this ZEC assessment has an
incomplete representation of potentially important Earth system feedbacks with climate modeling
tools most often showing a slight cooling after net zero CO2 emissions are reached.

Research is needed to better constrain, quantify, and identify key contributing factors of ZEC
uncertainty and to improve modeling tools to allow applying new ZEC insights to mitigation
analysis. Progress is also necessary on enhanced understanding of global warming and other
committed changes in a net zero world, including improved representation of processes that drive
future ocean heat uptake, carbon uptake in land and ocean, and in atmospheric physical feedback
processes. Additional aspects come into play when net zero GHG is considered and are equally
important to research, including the need for net negative CO2 emissions.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Furthering the understanding of the Earth system response Digitalisation/AI
to declining and net zero emissions of CO2 and other GHGs is
critical for understanding the emission reduction efforts, as Biodiversity/
well as the role of CO2 removal, required to meet the Paris Ecosystem
Agreement.
Related fiche(s)
3.1, 3.5

14
CLUSTER 2:
CHANGES IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM,
INCLUDING ABRUPT
AND IRREVERSIBLE CHANGE
A lthough the origin and magnitude of Earth’s warming are now firmly established, major
uncertainties persist about the resulting consequences and their effects on regional climate.
Changes in both atmospheric and ocean circulation need to be better understood and represented
more accurately in climate models. This includes the causes, rate and consequences of past
changes - for example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapsed abruptly
during the last glacial period, but our ability to determine the likelihood of such collapse under
increasing global warming remains limited. The European climate, in particular precipitation
patterns, is strongly affected by variations in atmospheric circulation, mid-latitudes trends and
changes in the AMOC. Yet, present climate models still grapple with uncertainties regarding
whether precipitation will locally increase or decrease with additional warming. This underscores
the need for advancements in our understanding of atmospheric circulation changes in a warming
climate, including the impacts of Arctic amplification on global warming in mid-latitudes.

The increasing pace of climate change combined with insufficient progress in reducing emissions
escalates the need to better understand the emergence of novel conditions, including the probability
and quantification of abrupt, high-impact, large-scale and potentially irreversible changes. Notably,

15
despite recent progress and ongoing efforts, uncertainties persist so as to the likelihood, timing
and amplitude of the thresholds beyond which tipping points may occur. Understanding these
changes and the related processes is crucial for long-term climate action planning, including
adaptation efforts.

The response of the cryosphere, most notably ice

sheets and permafrost, can be both abrupt and
The increasing pace
irreversible, and lead to committed long-term changes of climate change
in the future. Thawing in the cryosphere can amplify combined with
global or regional climate feedbacks - for example,
large meltwater fluxes into the North Atlantic from
insufficient progress
Greenland have the potential to affect the deep ocean in reducing emissions
circulation (AMOC). High uncertainty exists regarding escalates the need to
the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, but also
regarding carbon release from permafrost thaw since
better understand the
the related processes are generally not represented emergence of novel
in climate models. Therefore, the understanding of all conditions, including
these complex processes and their monitoring must be
significantly advanced.
the probability and
quantification of abrupt,
More research is also needed on proxy reconstructions highimpact, large-
that provide valuable historical climate information
extending beyond the period for which we have
scale and potentially
direct records. These reconstructions help scientists irreversible changes.
understand past climate variations and patterns, which
is essential for estimating natural climate variability,
calibrating climate models, identifying climate trends or contextualising recent changes. Targeted
efforts are needed on prior warm periods in the paleoclimatic record to better understand how
the climate was behaving globally and regionally in a multi-millennial context. This will inform
our understanding in terms of both the novelty of the current climate system state and the rate
of ongoing climate change.

16
2.1 Modeling atmospheric circulation and precipitation changes
in a warming climate
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Future changes in atmospheric circulation and the resulting precipitation changes are subject to
substantial knowledge gaps. There are structural and systematic uncertainties in representing
changes in the 21st century atmospheric circulation changes in the North Atlantic/European
sector and there remains substantial uncertainty in assessing the interactions between climate
change and in particular Arctic warming, and mid-latitude variability. There are contrasting lines
of evidence that cannot yet be reconciled on the linkages between the Arctic warming and the
mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. Furthermore, climate models agree only in a few regions
on how (in which direction) trends in mean precipitation will change during this century. Hence,
based on the current generation of climate models, we do not know for most regions whether
mean precipitation will increase or decrease, let alone knowledge of more sophisticated climate
indicators related to precipitation.

Strong arguments can be made that these substantial uncertainties can be reduced through a
decisive increase in spatial resolution and hence quality of the climate models used. Progress will
require flexible experimentation with the recently developed very-high-resolution coupled climate
models increasingly feasible in the context of the upcoming European exascale High Performance
Computing efforts.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Reducing uncertainties in predicting atmospheric circulation Digitalisation/AI
and precipitation changes is vital for informed policymaking
across sectors to enhance resilience, sustainability, and Related fiche(s)
preparedness in the face of a changing climate, via a shift to 5.3, 8.4
higher-resolution climate models.

17
2.2 Representing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
(AMOC) in climate models
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Our current knowledge on the AMOC is insufficient. The best assessment is that the AMOC will
weaken in the future, but we do not know by how much and for how long, nor how much this
weakening depends on the mix and rate of future GHG emissions. It is generally understood that
the AMOC collapsed abruptly during the last glacial period, but the likelihood of collapse this
century under global warming is currently assessed as a low likelihood outcome with considerable
uncertainty. While proxy records indicate that the AMOC was relatively stable during the past 8000
years, there is some evidence, but low confidence, of a decline during the 20th century. To what
extent observed change is due to natural variability or human-caused change remains uncertain.

These knowledge gaps highlight the critical importance of continuous high-quality monitoring, yet
the future of subpolar AMOC measurements is unclear. A systematic exploration of reducing the
dependency upon short-term funding support of subpolar observations by individual entities and
teams is needed to ensure long-term continuous monitoring. There is also a need for systematic
exploration of physical, chemical, and perhaps biological proxies of recent AMOC changes.

The magnitude and mechanisms of AMOC internal variability show inconsistent behaviour across
existing climate models and remain underestimated despite most recent model development.
The observations in the subpolar North Atlantic show that the importance of Labrador Sea deep
convection for AMOC variability is substantially overestimated in standard climate models. This
suggests that coupled climate models must be run at much higher spatial resolution than is
currently standard to simulate air-sea interactions in the water-mass formation regions and to
properly assess the impact of future changes. Flexible experimentation with recently developed
very-high-resolution climate models is needed for the assessment of likeliness of future collapse.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

AMOC changes influence regional ocean changes in the Digitalisation/AI
North Atlantic/European realm and have far-reaching
effects on precipitation patterns. A complete AMOC collapse
would fundamentally alter the North Atlantic regional
climate with broad ranging impacts for Europe and beyond.
Better understanding the likelihood and warning signs of
an AMOC collapse is critical for robust policies for building
climate resilience.

18
2.3 Identifying abrupt, irreversible, and committed changes in
the cryosphere
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

The climatic responses of cryospheric elements like ice sheets and permafrost can be both abrupt
and irreversible, lead to committed long-term changes, and contribute to global or regional climate
feedbacks. However, despite recent progress, large uncertainties remain on the likelihood, timing,
and amplitude of abrupt and irreversible changes in the cryosphere. This is also the case for the
amplitude of committed future changes in the context of stabilising global temperatures at a
given warming level.

There is an urgent need to improve our capabilities to observe, model and identify signs of
destabilisation of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets to constrain uncertainties in projections
of global sea level rise.

The Greenland Ice Sheet could be subject to abrupt changes in a warmer climate, however,
there is low agreement including on the processes determining the evolution of surface mass
balance (meltwater formation, storage, and drainage at the surface and below), and their
potential interaction with ice dynamics. The West and East Antarctic ice sheets are considered
to be susceptible to develop instabilities linked to critical thresholds. However, there are large
uncertainties in modeling marine instability due to warming oceans, subsurface melting, and ice
shelf fractures, impacting future ice-mass projections.

Conflicting observations and limited accessibility hinder accurate modeling. Permafrost thawing
with global warming will decrease the frozen soil volume, releasing carbon, yet the timing and
extent of carbon dioxide versus methane release remain uncertain. Inadequate representation
of processes like abrupt thaw and limited observational data in climate models contribute to
this uncertainty. Variability in surface conditions complicates understanding and modeling carbon
pools, while some models overlook the existing permafrost carbon pool crucial for estimating
its feedback.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Ice-sheet melt has direct implications on the global scale due International
to the influence on global mean sea level. Abrupt changes cooperation
can lead to accelerated changes; committed and irreversible
changes with long-term effects, including on regional climate. Digitalisation/AI
Having a better understanding of how such changes might and
will occur will help design the necessary adaptation responses,
with a greater knowledge of implied impacts for ecosystems Related fiche(s)
and populations, both relevant for region-specific policies and 1.3, 3.1, 5.5, 5.6.
for international cooperation.

19
2.4 Extending high-resolution proxy reconstructions with a focus
on the mid-Holocene
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Proxy reconstructions of past climate with a yearly temporal resolution only reach back to the
Common Era at global and hemispheric scales. Further back in time the reconstructions become
progressively sparser in time, at decadal, centennial, and then even millennial temporal scales.
This limits how our rapidly changing climate state can be compared with earlier periods, and thus
the quantification of both the unusualness of the current state of the climate system, and the rate
of ongoing climate change in a multi-millennial context. There is considerable potential to extend
back in time high resolution proxy reconstructions through a combination of reanalysis of existing
proxy records and the development of new and improved techniques.

A focus on the mid-Holocene thermal maximum period is particularly valuable as a comparison to

current climate. During that epoch, the global surface temperature maximum – driven by seasonal
insolation changes from orbital variations – may have reached sustained temperatures above
pre-industrial levels, potentially only surpassed in the most recent decade. However, there is
considerable ambiguity over the synchronicity of reconstructed changes and incomplete knowledge
of implied changes in other climatic variables.

Improving the temporal resolution of reconstructions around the last interglacial peak, when
the climate was warmer than today, with a higher global sea level and smaller ice sheets, but
with much lower CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, is important to help answer to what
degree climate change experienced in the coming decades is unique in the context of the current
interglacial. The currently available reconstructions for this last warm period around 125,000
years ago are at solely centennial to multi-centennial resolution.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

This enables a longer-term view of changes, which is important Digitalisation/AI
to exploit existing proxies and undertake targeted additional
studies. Improving our knowledge about the past periods Related fiche(s)
similar to today’s in terms of climatic and non-climatic aspects 1.4, 3.7.
will aid planning and decision-making across scales with a
greater granularity.

20
CLUSTER 3:
RISKS AND VULNERABILITY ACROSS
TIME AND SPACE
T he latest IPCC assessment finds that dangerous climate risks will occur at lower warming levels
and earlier than assessed in previous reports. With additional warming, risks are becoming
increasingly intense, complex and more difficult to manage. In addition, societal systems and
their economies are more and more exposed to compounding risks arising from multiple climate
hazards occurring together and concurring with a range of other, non-climatic factors such as
land use and habitat destruction. Transboundary and trans-sectoral risks related to, for example,
global supply chains, financial markets, non-linear socioeconomic responses, or loss of ecosystem
services, can significantly amplify losses, as has been dramatically illustrated by the recent COVID-
19 pandemic.

The dynamics of compounding and cascading risks are still poorly understood and require further
investigation to inform pathways for building societal resilience in the long term. The propagation
of risks and their interactions with adaptation and mitigation options should be analysed from a
more holistic perspective. More evidence is needed to characterise and quantify the development
and transmission pathways of risks for specific systems under different scenarios of future
climatic, adaptation, mitigation, and societal development pathways.

Reducing the vulnerability of ecosystems and people to climate hazards also requires more and

21
better data on climate-related risks, with a commitment to widespread accessibility, as pursued
by the Risk Data Hub and ClimateAdapt initiatives. Equally important is the development of robust
methodologies and frameworks for the quantification of risk sensitivity. This involves addressing
the characterisation, monitoring and quantification of the many nonlinear interactions involved.
These advances are pivotal for evaluating the effectiveness of mitigation, adaptation, and risk
reduction strategies.

Adaptation also needs to be better characterised under a variety of future scenarios, with new
data and knowledge on the response of both human and natural systems to adaptation options.
Research should explore how the adaptation potential of societies for risk reduction varies with
local and temporal context, depending on the dynamics of human vulnerability and exposure
to climate change and extreme events, their interaction
and interdependence with ecosystem vulnerability,
and with other non-climatic factors and hazards. With additional
A comprehensive approach is required to inform warming, risks
adaptation strategies that are not only incremental but
also transformative to build lasting resilience embedded are becoming
in broader development policies. increasingly intense,
complex and more
With global warming likely to exceed 1.5°C in this
century given the slow pace of progress on reducing difficult to manage
GHG emissions, there is an increasing interest in the
exploration of overshoot scenarios with a subsequent decline in global temperatures. In fact, the
majority of emission scenarios limiting global warming to 1.5°C by 2100 analysed in the latest
IPCC assessment involve a temperature overshoot. There is an urgent need to better understand
risks associated with such scenarios, including exploration of climate and Earth system feedbacks,
the feasibility and impacts of large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) that would be needed
to bring the temperatures back down, and the wider implications for mitigation and adaptation
strategies.

22
3.1 Understanding future global climate risks for individual
systems, sectors and for compound risks
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Climate risks intensify with rising temperatures, especially affecting vulnerable groups and
systems. As temperatures rise, managing impacts becomes more challenging due to complex
interactions between multiple hazards and other threats. The ability to minimise risks varies by
location and depends on adaptation efforts.

Research is needed to better understand the development of risks over time for different possible
future climate and mitigation scenarios, the surpassing of temperature dependent adaptation limits
for ecosystems and human systems, and what effective response options can be deployed both for
human society and communities, and also in terms of constraints on individual actors. Developing
robust projections of future compounding global climate risks requires further basic research
about mechanisms and underlying causes and effects concerning 1) the vulnerability of species,
biodiversity, ecosystems, dependent humans and societies at regional scale at different warming
levels; 2) the occurrence, including “when” and “why”, of biological tipping points (ecosystems) and
tipping points for societal functioning, and; 3) the limits to adaptation (evolutionary adaptation) of
species, ecosystems and of dependent societies with various economic backgrounds.

Furthermore, IPCC reports include an iconic representation of rising climate risk as a function of
temperature rise – figures called "burning embers". These represent the relationship between risk
development and degree of global warming. It would be valuable to develop approaches that
would enable visualisations akin to the burning embers, with and without adaptation, for various
development pathways, and including consideration of regional risks and also embracing other
indicators of climate change beyond the warming levels alone (such as temperature humidity
combinations, extreme events including drought and flood, sea level rise, ocean oxygen loss
and acidification).

Policy relevance
Expanded risk-scenarios, including compound risks and nature’s Flag(s)
and societies’ capacities to respond, will enable policymakers Digitalisation/AI
to make robust decisions about mitigation, adaptation and
climate resilient development. Biodiversity/
Ecosystems

SSH

Related fiche(s)
1.5, 2.3, 4.2, 6.3.

23
3.2 Understanding the dynamics of exposure and human
vulnerability at regional and local scales
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

In assessing climate risk, both exposure and vulnerability, as well as their interlinkages, need to be
taken into account. Notably, vulnerability and exposure cannot be considered as static, and their
variability in both space and time needs better understanding and assessment.

Despite changes in exposure, present studies tend to assess exposure to heat stress based on
static information, without accounting for daily mobility and other population dynamics. For
example, during the day, increased heat stress exposure can be experienced outside of the place
of residence, as well as during any commute. The development of adaptation and early warning
systems in the context of extreme events would benefit significantly from more sophisticated
understanding and treatment of daily, weekly and monthly dynamics of population movements in
terms of exposure. A comprehensive and improved consideration of population dynamics requires
updated methodologies, advanced modeling, and planning tools.

Changes in vulnerability, in turn, are especially induced by evolving socio-demographic and socio-
economic structures or framework conditions. Better understanding of the associated dynamics
is a pressing research need given the potentially significant implications for adaptation responses
in the context of mitigation action, as well as the broader equity and justice dimensions. Today,
3.6 billion people are already considered highly vulnerable to climate change due to overlapping
challenges and effects of compound risks. But how will their adaptation capacity and limits
change depending on the progress on poverty reduction, equity, justice, resource distributions and
mitigation? Research is needed to elucidate these questions by providing more insights into issues
such as vulnerability of human society at regional and local scales; interactions between heat
stress, human thermal performance and levels of societal functioning; the environmental criteria
for human well-being and health, but also for ecosystem health and biodiversity; trajectories that
integrate human into ecosystem and planetary health through climate resilient development; the
gender dimension of vulnerability and adaptive capacity.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

More accurately representing societal and ecosystem SSH
vulnerability and exposure in time and space, will allow for
better tailoring of early warning systems (of direct relevance International
for the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) “Early cooperation
Warnings for All” initiative), risk management strategies and
other adaptation measures at different levels of mitigation, Biodiversity/
significantly improving their effectiveness and helping to avoid Ecosystems
maladaptation.
Gender

Related fiche(s)
4.3, 4.6, 9.3.

24
3.3 Cascading, compound and transboundary risks and
adaptation
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Cascading and compound risks of climate change are potentially very damaging to economies
and societies, including across sectors and international borders. The latest IPCC report has found
that increasing transboundary risks are projected across the food, energy, and water sectors as
impacts from more frequent and severe weather and climate extremes increasingly propagate
through supply chains, financial markets, and natural resource flows, and may also increasingly
interact with impacts from other crises such as pandemics.

While the conceptual understanding of cascading and compound risks and adaptation has
improved, systems-wide research quantifying how commodity and trade networks, the financial
system, natural resource flows (e.g. rivers and watersheds) and the movement of people and
species propagate impacts and risks across sectors, regions and borders has only recently started
to emerge. Substantially more evidence is needed to understand risk transmission pathways.
Several gaps remain also for specific compound risks, for instance how the interaction of multiple
risks across sectors may result in displacement, migration, or immobility of people both within
and from outside Europe. Finally, while there is generally good conceptual understanding of how
adaptation can reduce risks at the source, research is needed to identify the effectiveness of
different adaptation options in reducing these cascading, compound, and transboundary risks
across different levels of mitigation action.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Most European adaptation strategies are still heavily International
focused on sectoral, regional, and national risks and thereby cooperation
underestimate the true costs and disruption of climate change.
This research will inform cross-sectoral, cross-boundary SSH
and better coordinated international adaptation responses
to diverse combinations of climatic and non-climatic risks. Biodiversity/
It will also contribute to understanding adaptation limits Ecosystems
and the requirements for transformational rather than
incremental adaptation. Related fiche(s)
4.1, 4.2, 8.3.

25
3.4 Evaluating the intrinsic risks of climate change responses
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

The way we respond to climate change can itself generate new risks. The IPCC defines risk as “the
potential for adverse consequences for human or ecological systems, recognising the diversity
of values and objectives associated with such systems”, encompassing risks from both potential
impacts of climate change and human responses to it. These may include: 1) maladaptation (and/
or trade-offs between adaptation to various increasing hazards, e.g., adaptation to increasing
extreme precipitation leading to a higher vulnerability to drought); 2) mitigation options that
unintentionally increase physical climate risk or other crises like pollution or biodiversity loss (e.g.,
biofuel production competing with food security, driving land use change and limiting options for
more effective mitigation).

With the scale of implementation of responses required, such risks will become increasingly
likely and potentially severe, hence also constraining future options for climate action. A core
research priority is to develop a systematic inventory of such risks, and, where possible, their
quantification. Accordingly, research is needed to strengthen the methodological toolbox for
complex climate risk assessment, to increase public understanding and policy awareness of such
risks, and to quantify the most important complex risk feedbacks, particularly when it may result
in significant constraints on options for climate action. In this context, monitoring and evaluation
of the effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation measures, policies, and actions is needed on a
local, regional, and national scale.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

In-depth understanding of side-effects associated with climate Digitalisation/AI
action can help eliminate the response options that are
ineffective or even counterproductive and identify the most Biodiversity/
effective solutions for both mitigation and adaptation. Ecosystems

SSH

Related fiche(s)
4.1, 6.1, 8.1, 8.2, 10.4.

26
3.5 Advancing knowledge on risks from overshooting 1.5°C and
options to bring temperatures back down
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

The latest IPCC reports conclude that global warming of 1.5°C is likely to be reached early in
the 2030s. Yet there is limited understanding of the implications of exceeding a level of global
warming of 1.5°C and the extent to which a reversal in global surface temperatures can be
achieved. This includes characterising the physical and social risks associated with exceedance
and return below a specified level of global warming, including a better understanding of carbon
cycle feedbacks and of the socio-economic, technical, and institutional feasibility of drawing down
temperatures by removing CO2 from the atmosphere, requiring new modeling frameworks. This
would include systematic approaches to modeling risks of different durations and magnitudes of
overshoot, including fast and slow onset processes, low-likelihood high-impact events, and the
risk of irreversible impacts.

A better understanding of overshoot and (ir)reversibility of its long-term impacts beyond 2100
need to be considered to account for the slowly varying components of the climate and natural
systems in the light of the consequences on the well-being of future generations. While many
hazards decrease with lower temperatures, vulnerability and exposure are not linearly related to
global surface temperatures and will depend on impacts that occur during an overshoot period
and on adaptation measures implemented and their cost. Irreversible impacts and ineffective
adaptation may lead to a situation where impacts remain high even once temperatures return to
lower levels.

The feasibility and sustainability of a globally attainable level of CDR also needs to be better
understood, considering carbon cycle feedbacks and land and ocean impacts, together with an
improved representation of CDR options and their implementation barriers in global mitigation
pathways. The potential for stepping up near-term action (including governance and institutional
barriers) needs to be explored, to understand how much further temperatures could be reversed,
at what costs and how this would limit residual climate risks.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Every increment of global warming has major implications SSH
for global and regional climate and related risks in the
coming decades. Both mitigation and adaptation policies will Biodiversity/
benefit from assessing the potential for enhanced near-term Ecosystems
mitigation, long-term CDR and the associated impacts, risks
and feasibility of returning temperatures to lower levels. Related fiche(s)
1.5, 4.1, 8.5.

27
3.6 Exploring societal resilience in a volatile world amplified by
climate change
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

The causes, risks, and consequences of climate change are well established. Addressing the climate
challenge is also increasingly seen as a key enabling factor to achieve other societal objectives that
are part of a broader sustainable development agenda, and vice versa. It is therefore clear that
societal choices about how to respond to the climate change challenge are intricately interlinked
with our wider societal system. A key knowledge gap, however, is how other crises can amplify
climate risk or are exacerbated by climate impacts or adaptation and mitigation responses, when
they occur simultaneously or in short succession. This state, where disparate crises can interact
such that the overall impact far exceeds the sum of each part is called a poly-crisis. Interlinked
crises that were identified in expert elicitations include environmental (climate change, biodiversity
and ecosystem collapse, natural resource crisis), societal (public health and pandemics, cost of
living, mis- and disinformation), technological (breakdown of critical infrastructure), economic and
geopolitical crises (armed conflicts).

Illustrative examples of the interactions between different crises that need to be better understood
in the context of adaptation are the role of non-climate crises in changing exposure and
vulnerability patterns that affect loss and damage, including through the impact of multiple crises
on biodiversity and access to environmental services. A crisis that increases vulnerability presents
an additional driver of risk and further exacerbates the impacts of climate shocks. Adaptation
options that exist otherwise may not be available under these conditions. Compound and cascading
risk assessments and analyses of multi-dimensional climate risk in areas of high vulnerability (and
often limited data) are needed. In the context of mitigation, the interactions and linkages between
different crises need to be better understood in how the transformations required to reach a net
zero world change society’s vulnerability and exposure to critical infrastructure, geopolitical or
other risks. It is equally important to address how climate (mitigation and adaptation) policies can
create synergies and trade-offs in addressing other crises, and vice versa.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Current research and research tools are not equipped to Gender
explore the interdisciplinary questions that must be answered
to understand complex and cascading multi-dimensional SSH
climate risks, their interaction with societal vulnerability and
exposure, as well as potential societal solutions. However, a Related fiche(s)
better understanding of these risks at different spatial and 4.4, 5.1, 9.3, 10.2, 10.6.
temporal scales is crucial to ensure a resilient future society
through informed decision-making.

28
3.7 Utilising paleo records of past impacts of climate changes to
refine future scenarios
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

The unfolding climatic changes are not unique and there have been equivalents in the prehistoric
past. Although climatic changes of the last 2.5 million years have largely been driven by
astronomical cycles, there are examples from the more distant past when large releases of
GHGs caused global ecological crises and even mass extinctions. The rich record of ecosystem
responses in the deep past is currently poorly integrated in the assessment of climate risks and
vulnerabilities. The study of past warming periods can help assess the vulnerability of groups of
species and ecosystems, identifying those which may be most vulnerable to global warming in
the long run, including where the impacts of climate change are expected to be most severe and
which climatic thresholds may lead to mass extinctions.

The latest IPCC report includes a better coverage of paleontological records of impacts than
before, but due to lack of targeted research few statements could be made with high confidence.
Exploring climate impacts in the geological past can reveal climate change impacts with no
confounding human impacts such as habitat destruction, pollution and overexploitation that are
the main sources of modern biodiversity decline. Another advantage is that ecosystem states can
be compared for different stages of past climate-induced crises – before, during, and after. A key
challenge to compare these past impacts with current climate change is the different timescales
over which such comparisons can be made. Bridging the gap requires a combined effort to find
mechanisms that are scale-independent and to use modeling and simulations. Regarding models,
the most widely used approaches to predicting biodiversity losses due to climate change are
species distribution models. Simulations are needed to interpolate longer term observations of
climate impacts to shorter time scales. Challenges also exist with reference to the spatio-temporal
link between warming and biological responses.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Deepening the understanding of species and ecosystems’ Biodiversity/
vulnerability to climate change based on multiple lines Ecosystems
of evidence, including paleo records, is critical for refining
conservation planning and directing it towards species Digitalisation/AI
and ecosystems that are likely to be most impacted under
projected warming scenarios.
Related fiche(s)
1.4, 2.4.

29
CLUSTER 4:
ADAPTATION: EFFECTIVENESS, PATHWAYS
AND LIMITS, LOSSES AND DAMAGES
W idespread adverse impacts, including related losses and damages to people and nature, are
already occurring in countries and regions hit by climate hazards, affecting disproportionately
vulnerable communities and ecosystems. Impacts will escalate with every increment of global
warming, making the case for adaptation increasingly urgent. The IPCC cautions, however, that
there are limits to how much adaptation can reduce climate risks - as climate change progresses,
human and natural systems increasingly face adaptation limits, where adaptive measures become
ineffective in reducing risk and safeguarding against harmful consequences. There is also a need
to learn from the increasing evidence of maladaptation across sectors and regions that creates
lock-in of vulnerability and makes exposure and risks more difficult and costly to manage.

In addition to the continued benefits of incremental adaptation, the IPCC report introduces a
paradigm shift towards transformational adaptation that builds resilience in the long term in
synergy with sustainable development, helping to overcome soft adaptation limits. Sustainable
development for all is also the foundation of the concept of climate resilient development,
integrating adaptation with mitigation action to deliver benefits for human well-being and health of
the planet. However, important barriers that undermine adaptive capacity remain to be overcome,
including in Europe, to accelerate, monitor and assess the development and implementation
of effective and transformative adaptation actions. Examples of such barriers include missing

30
data, inadequate institutional and governance arrangements or gaps in our capacity to assess
climate risk and the effectiveness of adaptation strategies. The links between risk preparedness
and response, including early warning, climate resilient reconstruction, grey and nature-based
solutions (NBS) for adaptation and sustainable development also need to be strengthened, and
incorporated into the EU core policies such as the Common Agricultural Policy and the Water
Framework Directive.

Understanding the role of human activities through climate

attribution becomes increasingly important for informed Human and natural
risk management and policy development and is key to systems increasingly
progress in strengthening the preparedness for extremes,
reducing losses and damages. It is important to clarify face adaptation
here the distinction between “losses and damages” and limits, where
“Loss and Damage” - the IPCC uses the former to refer adaptive measures
broadly to adverse (observed) impacts and (projected)
risks whereas the latter is linked to political debate under become ineffective
the UNFCCC on addressing climate-related destruction in reducing risk
in developing countries in the context of the Warsaw and safeguarding
International Mechanism. In the research context of this
report, the primary focus is on the wider notion of “losses against harmful
and damages”, with the potential to inform the “Loss and consequences.
Damage” policy and legal dimensions. Advances are needed
in our understanding and quantification of losses and damages, including cross-cutting issues
related to climate justice and responsibility, distributional aspects, and stakeholder engagement,
as well as non-economic aspects such as ecosystem functions, culture and heritage. The potential
legal implications of Loss and Damage under the UNFCCC, as well as at other scales (e.g., local
and national) and other legal regimes, also need to be further explored.

Filling these gaps will secure more and better data on climate-related losses and damages, help
validate effective adaptation options and provide state-of-art knowledge on adaptation best-
practises, strengthening repositories such as Climate-ADAPT.

31
4.1 Understanding adaptation effectiveness and limits
at different degrees of warming
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Despite a notable increase in evaluations of the implementation and effectiveness of adaptation in

the latest IPCC report, the assessment primarily focused on responses to past or present climatic
conditions and did not consider increasing temperatures. However, most adaptation options to the
four key risks in Europe (heat, drought, flooding, water scarcity) depend on water and land, the
availability of which will be diminished with increasing global warming. The current adaptation
implementation gap is therefore likely to increase with higher warming, but quantification is
missing.

The latest IPCC report also found increasing evidence for hard limits to adaptation being surpassed
already at current warming levels. Such hard limits are related to biological tolerance thresholds,
including human physiological limits (such as under hot and wet conditions) and biological
physiological limits leading to species mass mortality and degradation of ocean, aquatic, and
terrestrial ecosystems. With further warming, it is expected that context-specific hard limits will
increasingly be encountered due to biogeophysical constraints, e.g. on water availability, carbon
storage and biomass production. However, the scientific evidence underpinning the identification
of such hard limits remains limited, facilitating lock-in effects, maladaptation, and negative
mitigation responses.

Better knowledge about adaptation feasibility and limits and effectiveness of adaptation for
different global warming levels and socio-economic contexts is necessary. Advancements are
needed in assessing possible adaptation responses to numerous climatic impact-drivers across
a comprehensive range of warming levels, sectors (energy, agriculture, building, transport,
industry, ecosystems…), and regions, but also in better including adaptation in climate impact and
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). Regions of particular interest for exploration of adaptation
limits include those affected by the loss of high mountain cryosphere for water availability, small
islands and low-lying areas and coasts (changing profiles of coastal hazards including salinisation),
and the Mediterranean region (biogeophysical constraints e.g., on greening due to limited water
availability).

Policy relevance Flag(s)

This knowledge is highly relevant for informing the development Biodiversity/
of comprehensive, context-specific, and effective adaptation Ecosystems
strategies, including evaluation of adaptation options in light
of limitations, feasibility, and effectiveness, and how to avoid
maladaptation. Related fiche(s)
3.1, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5,
5.2, 8.2, 10.4.

32
4.2 Probing the limits of nature-based solutions under different
climate-change scenarios
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Nature-based solutions (NBS) are clearly preferable over grey solutions, both by virtue of their
co-benefits to biodiversity and human health, and also because they sometimes are simply better
climate mitigation and adaptation solutions. However, the latest IPCC report suggests that while
NBS as well as most water-related adaptation options are effective, they are vulnerable to climate
change impacts and their effectiveness may drop with increasing global warming. Effectiveness
and full exploitation of the potential of NBS therefore relies on ambitious emissions reductions.

As the limits to NBS depend on context and intended benefit, there is need for a more rigorous
assessment of their feasibility for climate resilience and mitigation at different levels of warming,
at different timescales, and across a wide range of regions and sectors, addressing questions such
as when, where and for whom these options can be most effective. Research is needed on the
benefits and costs of NBS in different settings (e.g., coastal, terrestrial) and for different purposes
(e.g., mitigation, adaptation, biodiversity conservation) under different warming scenarios and to
identify best-practice pathways towards design and implementation in different socio-economic
contexts. In addition, more effort is needed to quantify the efficacy of NBS for adaptation (as
has been done for mitigation) at various warming levels, and including co-benefits for mitigation
and biodiversity.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Understanding how NBS will respond to a warming climate SSH
and how their potential will be impacted will inform the
timely development of resilient climate strategies (combining Biodiversity/
adaptation and mitigation dimensions) that are robust against Ecosystems
various warming levels and promote implementation of
climate resilient NBS in the broader sustainable development Related fiche(s)
context. 3.1, 3.2, 5.4.

33
4.3 Considering population response and coastal adaptation
strategies in the face of rising sea levels
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Understanding and predicting coastal change is severely limited by incomplete or insufficiently

tested models, incomplete understanding of nearshore wave processes and unreliable satellite-
derived shoreline estimates. Calibration to local scales is generally needed. A coupled approach
promises a better handle on both data and model reliability for sandy open coasts, at scales from
municipalities to regions and continents. Whether this can be extended to mud/mangrove coasts
that comprise a very substantial part of the global coastlines is an open question. A universal
approach would be useful to assess long-term strategies of erosion prevention and coastline
management.

Shortcomings also remain in how national to continental scale assessments of future coastal
risk can support long-term coastal adaptation pathways. First, they lack consideration of human
population dynamics and of the interactions between decisions at different scales. While national
level socio-economic development has generally been included in the assessments, these mostly
do not take into account subnational spatial and temporal patterns of human development, such as
urbanisation and migration. Furthermore, assessments generally do not link higher level adaptation
decisions (e.g., to protect or retreat) with decisions associated with population development.

Assessments have generally not included decision-making frameworks that fit the dynamic and
adaptive nature of coastal pathways. Adaptation pathway analysis is a helpful tool but lacks
integration with modeling frameworks. Generally, there is a need to move from static approaches
(cost-benefit analysis) to dynamic and adaptive approaches that consider the spatial and temporal
patterns of sea-level rise and socio-economic development. Research should develop a relocatable
workflow for assessment of past and future coastal evolution at a timescale of decades under
global and local scenarios of coastal and urban development and climate change. We also need
to learn more about social acceptability and population responses to coastal adaptation as part
of broader adaptation pathways across various contexts.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

The outcomes will serve to better appraise the effectiveness Digitalisation/AI
and efficiency of coastal adaptation policy options that
take into account the essential development dynamics and SSH
are tailored for different contexts. Improved coastal change
projections will inform risk assessment and shape policies Gender
such as coastal management plans and zoning.

Related fiche(s)
3.2, 5.1, 5.5, 5.6, 10.2.

34
4.4 Advancing climate science relevant for loss and damage
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

There is an urgent need for a more systemic and, where possible, quantified assessment of current
and future losses and damages. This includes the extent to which future losses and damages can
be avoided by mitigation and adaptation and at what costs, as well as limits to adaptation. This
calls for updated assessments of observed impacts, including their attribution to climate change,
associated limits to adaptation, and adaptation options and constraints. Second, it requires
progress in modeling of future losses and damages in relation to mitigation, adaptation, and
development pathways, linking to research on wider climate risk assessment.

Research needs range from basic climate research and advances in the interplay between natural
variability and human-induced global climate change (both in the recent past and in the near-term
future), to research focused on responses, to inform how impacts are shaped by the interactions
between local responses with human-induced exacerbation of climate hazards. Detection and
attribution of climate-specific losses and damages can be enabled by delivering datasets and
enhanced methods to separate influences of climate trends (including in extreme events) from
trends in exposure and vulnerability, both in observed datasets and in model scenarios.

Combining the methodologies of attribution and emergence could help better inform when and
where unprecedented conditions potentially leading to major losses and damages are expected to
occur (including using initialised predictions and scenario-based projections).

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Advancements in attribution science can inform and improve International
the effectiveness of early warning and humanitarian strategic cooperation
planning in a changing climate, country- and region-specific
planning for both adaptation and management of residual risk, Digitalisation/AI
including in the context of the UNFCCC Santiago Network on
loss and damage, as well as mitigation choices. Gender

SSH

Biodiversity/
Ecosystems

Related fiche(s)
3.6, 9.1, 9.2.

35
4.5 Integrating climate resilience in post-extreme events
reconstruction
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Strengthening the integration of climate resilience and adaptation into reconstruction and loss and
damage programmes is needed, including in the context of climate resilient development. In most
cases loss and reconstruction funds primarily provide funding for the rebuilding of what has been
there before. Improvements towards climate resilience, in different phases of reconstruction, are
often underfunded or not part of the funding schemes (private insurance as well as state funding
schemes). New data, methods and tools are needed to improve the consideration of climate
resilience within different phases and sectors of reconstruction after extreme events, considering
differences in climatic hazards, but also in vulnerability and exposure of people, infrastructures,
and services.

In addition to the integration of climate resilience and adaptation into reconstruction programmes,
there is also the need to better understand synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and
mitigation actions. For example, synergies can be strengthened when improving climate resilience
with new green/blue infrastructures in cities, but specific insulation materials for houses to reduce
energy consumption might increase loss and damage once the house gets flooded.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Building climate resilience into reconstruction and loss and International
damage programmes enhances preparedness and adaptive cooperation
capacity in synergy with sustainable development. It also
contributes to sound financial management in the face of Gender
non-linear risks associated with future climate change and
supports improved definition of adaptation and resilience SSH
goals, and cooperation formats.

Related fiche(s)
6.1, 9.2, 9.3, 10.6.

36
4.6 Linking early warning to long-term adaptation
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

With the impacts of extreme climate events becoming a highly political issue, there is a growing
interest in examining the role of early warning to protect lives and assets and to support wider
adaptation efforts. However, there has so far been little systematic exploration of the extent to
which early warning systems link to adaptation planning, including issues such as how information
about exposure and vulnerability can be useful across timescales, whether it is shared across
institutions and if limits to adaptation emerge when considering response to an early warning of
an unprecedented extreme event.

Case-study based assessments are needed to investigate the adequacy of early warning systems
in a changing climate, and how they can be improved to enhance preparedness to future events.
The assessments should identify the limitations of such systems - for example, with the short
lead-time between warning and extreme weather event (typically a few hours or days notice),
people may be able to move out of harm’s way, but many assets will still be lost, with no time
for more structural adaptation such as changes in land use planning, construction of protective
infrastructure or public awareness raising. The outcomes should underpin the design of better
early warning systems and point to areas where other adaptation solutions are necessary.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Results will serve to strengthen the coherence between short- International
term disaster risk management, longer-term disaster risk cooperation
reduction, and more systemic climate change adaptation as
called for by the Cancun Agreement and the Sendai Framework Gender
for Disaster Risk Reduction. At the global level, the outcomes
will support the efforts on addressing “Loss and Damage”, Digitalisation/AI
including under the UNFCCC, where early warning systems
have been suggested as a key mechanism, and encompassing SSH
the “Early Warnings for All” initiative of the WMO.
Biodiversity/
Ecosystems

Related fiche(s)
3.2, 9.1, 9.2.

37
CLUSTER 5:
WATER, BIODIVERSITY, NATURE-BASED
SOLUTIONS AND THE COASTAL
ENVIRONMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE
W ater is a dual force in the fight against climate change, acting as both a source of hazards
through floods, droughts, and extreme weather events, and a vital component of both
adaptation and mitigation responses. As highlighted at the 2023 United Nations Water Conference,
“Water is a dealmaker for the Sustainable Development Goals, and for the health and prosperity
of people and planet. But our progress on water related goals and targets remains alarmingly off
track”. Indeed, the world is already facing an unprecedented water crisis, with global freshwater
demand predicted to exceed supply by 40% by 2030. The latest IPCC report warns that continued
warming is poised to further disrupt the global water cycle, impacting its variability, monsoon
precipitation, river flows, seasons as well as very wet and very dry extremes. The IPCC report warns
that increases in frequency, intensity, and severity of droughts, floods, and heatwaves, combined
with sea-level rise will expose millions of people to acute water and food insecurity with a high
risk of triggering conflicts, political instability, and refugee crises.

Water and food security greatly depend on functioning freshwater ecosystems in streams, rivers, lakes,
and wetlands, which are vital for sustainable development, climate resilience and as carbon sinks. In
2022, the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) emphasised their crucial role by establishing targets

38
that specifically focus on the conservation, restoration, and sustainable management of inland waters.
However, the latest IPCC report shows that freshwater ecosystems are under threat from climate
induced changes in the hydrological cycle. With additional global warming, ecosystems may reach or
surpass hard adaptation limits.

Around 10% of the world's population – close to 1 billion people – resides in low-lying coastal areas
hosting significant infrastructure, economic and ecosystem assets that are at significant risk from
sea-level rise, storms, and storm surges, but also from saltwater intrusion into coastal ecosystems,
increased water temperatures and ocean acidification. Whereas many coastal cities and settlements
are already experiencing severe climate impacts, the latest
IPCC report warns that coastal climatic impact-drivers – sea-
level rise, coastal flooding, and coastal erosion - are projected Continued warming
to increase by mid-century. Coastal flood damage alone is is poised to
projected to increase at least tenfold by the end of the 21st
century. further disrupt
the global water
Understanding of the changes in the global water cycle and the cycle, impacting its
interdependencies between climate change, water dynamics,
and biodiversity is essential for crafting effective response variability, monsoon
strategies, which should include nature-based solutions (NBS) precipitation, river
among other approaches to support ecosystem adaptation. flows, seasons as
Strengthening the evidence base regarding the efficacy of NBS
in a warming climate is crucial. Ecosystem adaptation must well as very wet and
be driven by improved knowledge about the ramifications of very dry extremes.
management and restoration actions on ecosystem functions,
services, and biodiversity. Coastal ecosystems adaptation
can be advanced by comprehending and quantifying the
future risks and impacts of changing coastal conditions and the effectiveness of related adaptation
strategies, not least by combining modeling studies with satellite observations and by expanding
comprehensive local to global assessments. Enhancing the resolution and representation of coastal
processes is also crucial for actionability at a local scale. All these aspects should be considered as
research needs and take into account the needs of the Water Framework Directive in a changing
climate, by addressing a variety of issues from water-related extremes (e.g., floods and droughts) to
water as a resource (e.g., groundwater, urban water and water reuse) and water in the ecosystems
(e.g., marine water and nitrates).

39
5.1 Projecting climate impacts across natural systems:
terrestrial, marine, and freshwater
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

When it comes to risk reduction, our knowledge on how nature-based solutions, in terms of both
adaptation and mitigation measures, integrate is limited. To guarantee a liveable future for all, we
need to rebuild destroyed or degraded ecosystems for biodiversity and carbon storage. To do so
successfully, we need improved projections of future possible impacts and to develop adaptation
pathways across ecosystems and dependent societies more comprehensively.

Current research is improving the understanding around which climate-dependent mechanisms

are underpinning biodiversity shifts, and which physiological trade-offs and constraints must
be considered, explaining species interactions, competitiveness, abundance in relation to
environmental parameters, and overall, ecosystem structure and functioning. However, to cover
global biodiversity in freshwater or marine environments a significant expansion of modelled
scenarios should consider abrupt changes, thresholds and possible tipping points of ecosystems
and dependent societies (which are system properties), their (lack of) capacities to adapt and
mitigate, as well as the responses of ecosystems and societies to shocks under extremes, and
water-related risks associated with adaptation and mitigation responses. Scenario development
needs to reflect this integration, considering land, freshwater and ocean “scapes”.

Furthermore, the climate change-biology interface needs further investigation to broaden our
understanding regarding evolutionary responses in complex and long-lived marine organisms to
identify which changes in ecosystems lead to ecosystem failure.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

A better understanding of climate change related impacts on SSH
ecosystems and dependent societies can lead to an improved
quality and acceptability of climate policies. Improved Biodiversity/
understanding of tipping points and limits to adaptation Ecosystems
supports the development of adaptation trajectories that are
better tailored to ecosystems and societies.
Related fiche(s)
3.6, 4.3, 6.3, 9.1.

40
5.2 Integrating water management and adaptation responses
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

In its latest report, the IPCC has underscored that 60% of climate change adaptation measures are
intricately tied to water. Furthermore, a multitude of climate impacts are also mediated through
water, including but not limited to floods, droughts, and the melting of glaciers, highlighting the
importance of improving our understanding of the effectiveness, robustness, and limitations of
water-related adaptation strategies.

There is a need to advance integrated water management for adaptation purposes through a
context-specific, portfolio-based approach that considers all aspects of the water cycle, from
atmospheric rivers, to soil moisture and groundwater storage. This would require a systematic
review of observed and projected climate impacts in the hydrological cycle together with
identification of water-based adaptation options and limits (at different levels of mitigation and
warming) as well as risks of maladaptation. For example, salinisation of coastal aquifers and
upstream migration of salt wedge in rivers due to sea-level rise may limit the available adaptation
options.

Research should include better understanding of the interaction between water-based adaptation
and mitigation options to strengthen their synergies - for example, in water scarce areas some
adaptation responses (e.g., desalination) could undermine decarbonisation efforts. There is also
a need to explore the interdependencies more thoroughly within water-related sustainable
development objectives, notably in the context of the water-energy-food nexus, such as the
relationship between soil moisture and land use.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

A more comprehensive understanding of how climate Biodiversity/
change affects the entire water cycle will enable a portfolio Ecosystems
of strategies for better managing water resources, including
options for climate-proofing the existing EU water policies, and
reinforcing synergies with sectoral adaptation (e.g., energy, Related fiche(s)
agriculture). It will also help avoid maladaptation and support 4.1, 6.1, 6.3.
better integration of ecosystem-based adaptation and NBS
into water management strategies.

41
5.3 Projecting and monitoring soil moisture and ecosystem
drought processes to build resilience
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Soil moisture is a crucial regulatory variable affecting water resources, ecosystems, and land-
climate feedbacks. Its interaction with other variables such as soil organic carbon plays an
important role in determining soil GHG emissions, though quantification of these interactions
comes with large uncertainties. Within the water cycle, soil moisture plays a significant role in
various natural processes, including plant growth, groundwater recharge, runoff generation, and
climate interactions. Accurate monitoring of soil moisture offers therefore significant potential
skill for short-term and sub seasonal weather and hydrological forecasting. However, soil moisture
initialisation is generally not fully incorporated in forecasting systems. The development of
robust initialisation capabilities is crucial, as it sets the initial state of soil moisture in a model or
simulation.

Better and extended monitoring systems are needed for soil moisture and environmental drought
status combining in-situ measurements, remote sensing, and land surface models, both in Europe
and at the global scale. Improvements are necessary in land surface, hydrological and climate
models in their representation of soil moisture dynamics and soil moisture-climate feedbacks,
including progress on understanding and quantifying the implications for land-carbon sinks in terms
of drivers and future trends. The collaboration between relevant research communities (climate
science, meteorology, hydrology, ecosystem science, physiology of relevant organisms, agronomy
and forestry, soil science, land surface modeling, remote sensing) should be strengthened.

Assessing the soil moisture status and associated ecosystem and atmospheric responses is
particularly important in Southern, Central and Western Europe, hosting regions that are projected
to be affected by increasing soil moisture deficits with climate change.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

An improved understanding of the evolution of soil moisture Digitalisation/AI
and ecosystem drought in a warming climate will provide
policymakers with essential information for effective water SSH
resource management, drought preparedness, land use
planning, and climate change adaptation and mitigation Biodiversity/
strategies, notably in the agriculture and forestry sectors. Ecosystems

Related fiche(s)
1.2, 2.1, 6.3, 8.4, 9.4.

42
5.4 Strengthening best-practices for freshwater ecosystems,
biodiversity and climate response strategies
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Biodiversity is declining globally and one of the most species-rich ecosystems - fresh waters - are
being especially threatened. Freshwater vertebrates have faced an average population decline
of 84% since 1970. Today, roughly one third of all known freshwater species face the threat of
extinction, including one third of all known freshwater fish species. Under future climate change,
the pressures on freshwater ecosystems and their species are expected to further increase with
habitat loss and barriers to migration routes among major threats. Loss of freshwater biodiversity
will directly lead to a decline in ecological functions, threatening the multitude of natural benefits
that freshwater biodiversity and ecosystems provide for people.

Nature-based solutions (NBS) have been identified as a cornerstone for protection and restoration
of biodiversity and ecosystem services. To fully realise their potential benefits, it is essential
that they are deployed in the right places and with the appropriate approaches based on a
scientifically robust decision-making framework that integrates interdisciplinary, local, and
indigenous knowledge with practical expertise while accounting for uncertainty. For highly context-
specific local policy challenges, building of typologies, case studies and their synthesis, as well
as knowledge sharing, is critical. However, there is still limited evidence on the effectiveness of
NBS adaptation measures, especially for freshwater ecosystems. In addition, despite the fact
that participatory (i.e., collaborative) processes are emphasised as part of the development of
the EU Water Framework River Basin Management Plans, there is still a considerable lack of
consolidated knowledge that defines best practices of collaborative decision-making processes
for the development and implementation of freshwater adaptation. Such practices encompass
catchment restoration, management, NBS plans, for example at different spatial scales, with
different spatial resolutions, and ecological and cultural backgrounds.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Furthering our understanding of the different elements that Biodiversity/
comprise the value of freshwater restoration, management, Ecosystems
adaptation, and NBS plans and strategies, including when,
where, what and how to co-develop, implement, and refine
them, will be imperative to mitigate and to adapt to a warmer Related fiche(s)
climate. 4.2, 9.2, 10.4.

43
5.5 Improving projections of future coastal change with Earth
observations
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Coastal climatic impact-drivers (relative sea level change, coastal flooding, coastal erosion) and
related impacts are projected to increase almost all over the world by the mid-21st century.
Committed sea level rise requires effective local coastal adaptation measures in addition to the
global effort to reduce GHG emissions to limit the magnitude and the rate of sea level rise, allowing
for more time for coastal responses. Progress is needed in modeling the related processes (e.g.,
permanent inundation, episodic flooding, coastal erosion) and associated impacts, together with
an assessment of risk reduction adaptation measures (e.g., protection structures, NBS, managed
retreat, etc.).

While advances have been made in recent years on exploiting the ever-increasing Earth observation
(EO) data, high resolution global datasets of coastal type (sandy, muddy, rocky, etc.), nearshore
bathymetry and coastal topography are needed for integration with modeling studies to inform
adaptation planning at local scales. Research is needed on the one hand to benchmark EO baseline
data with model applications to assess changes in climate hazards, impacts, and risks. On the
other hand, stakeholder engagement, including the effective involvement of social sciences, is
needed to develop adaptation options and strategies for implementation.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Coastal communities are increasingly at risk from the Digitalisation/AI
consequences of sea level rise. The local-scale assessment
of risk reduction, enabled through a range of adaptation SSH
measures, is highly relevant for tailoring policy formulation,
helping allocate resources efficiently, promoting community Biodiversity/
engagement, enabling data-driven decision-making, building Ecosystems
resilience, and reducing vulnerability.

Related fiche(s)
1.1, 2.3, 4.3.

44
5.6 Multi-scale modeling coastal changes in Arctic regions under
warming conditions
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Global warming accelerates thawing rates in Arctic regions. Permafrost thaw is occurring in an
increased number of areas, exposing the landscape more and more to cyclic frost patterns and
prolonged periods of above freezing temperatures. These changing conditions are expected to lead
to an expanded exploitation of these areas for socio-economic purposes, a process that has already
started. However, the suitability of the coastal zones of such regions for these developments is
relatively understudied, in particular, the physical processes that shape these coasts, and their
dynamics on various temporal and spatial scales are largely unknown. More research is also
needed on the implications of an accelerated warming and erosion of presently frozen floodplains
for the release of GHG into the atmosphere.

State of the art morpho-dynamic models can reproduce the medium to long term evolution
of unconsolidated coasts consisting of a silty and/or sandy substrate. However, currently no
morpho-dynamic model can simulate the evolution of a (partially) frozen coastline under the
action of tides, waves, and ice, largely due to a lack of process knowledge. This gap may be
filled by leveraging existing datasets of morpho dynamics of Arctic coastal zones, collecting new
detailed data on freezing/thawing related dynamics in field and/or lab settings, and by developing
suitable parameterisations that can be built into existing coastal morpho-dynamic models.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Evidence-based decision making is needed to address new Digitalisation/AI
developments in the next decades that will likely occur in the
warming Arctic including on issues such as suitability for civil SSH
construction, increased flood risk for coastal communities
due to a larger exposure to coastal hazards and sustainable Biodiversity/
coastal zone management. Ecosystems

Related fiche(s)
2.3, 4.3.

45
CLUSTER 6:
TOWARDS MORE COHERENCE IN
CLIMATE POLICIES: INTEGRATING
IMPACTS-ADAPTATION-MITIGATION
M itigation and adaptation are two sides of the same coin, but their interactions are inherently
complex. The latest IPCC report is clear that progress on mitigation will largely determine
the demand for and the effectiveness of adaptation, with limits being reached with increasing
warming levels. At the same time, mitigation scenarios themselves must be resilient to changes
in climate, particularly the occurrence of extremes. The IPCC stresses that the trends in adverse
climate impacts, projected risks and vulnerability increase the urgency to advance climate resilient
development that combines deep emissions reductions and climate adaptation together, making
the case for coordination and integration of climate policies and actions even stronger. This is also
important because approaches focusing on mitigation or adaptation in siloes may produce trade-
offs that undermine the overall progress of climate action.

Synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation vary across sectors, between
and within regions and nations, depending on local contexts. For example, certain adaptation
actions such as NBS can have positive effects on mitigation through increasing carbon stocks.
Climate resilient urban planning also holds great potential for reducing emissions. Conversely,
some measures such as (hard) flood protection, desalination or expansion of air conditioning

46
can have negative impact in terms of emissions due to their high energy intensity. Furthermore,
some mitigation strategies can be detrimental for adaptation. As an example, densification of the
urban structure to reduce emissions from transportation can cause urban heat islands, and large-
scale bioenergy production can disrupt ecosystems and erode their adaptation services. Careful
balancing between mitigation and adaptation objectives is therefore crucial for effective climate
action but needs to overcome a scale challenge as the decisions on adaptation and mitigation are
typically taken at different governance levels.

Opportunities also exist to better integrate adaptation

and mitigation into broader development strategies in Trends in adverse
line with the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
Development, which recognises that ending poverty and
climate impacts,
delivering on social needs must go hand in hand with projected risks
tackling climate change and other environmental crises. The and vulnerability
latest IPCC report has for the first time comprehensively
assessed the interplay between adaptation, mitigation,
increase the urgency
and sustainable development in terms of synergies and to advance climate
trade-offs. The IPCC concludes that more synergies than resilient development
conflicts exist, but more integration is needed to deliver
climate resilient development. The IPCC also emphasises
that combines deep
strong links between climate change and biodiversity loss, emissions reductions
stressing that climate related impacts on ecosystems and climate
and biodiversity increase vulnerability and may limit our
ability to adapt and mitigate. In higher warming scenarios
adaptation together.
the feasibility, effectiveness, and availability of NBS,
agroforestry, bioenergy or bio-based materials may be
(severely) constrained.

Research is needed to support a more strategic approach to climate action and sustainable
development by providing a more complete overview of how adaptation and mitigation interact
with each other and with other policy objectives, and by identifying transformative and equitable
climate actions with most co-benefits. A better toolbox is needed to support linking policies and
actions across different spatial and temporal scales and across sectors, underpinned by an effective
monitoring and evaluation. Improving the representation of the interplay between mitigation and
adaptation options in a warming world requires better linking mitigation pathways to climate
impacts and adaptation. An improved assessment of optimal allocation and vulnerability of land-
use to climate change (forest cover, forest type, conservation, agricultural land, food production)
is also required.

47
6.1 Integrating mitigation and adaptation action across scales
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

As the urgency to step up climate action mounts, it is fundamental to adopt a more integrated
approach to mitigation and adaptation interventions to maximise their effectiveness. This calls
for a much better understanding of synergies and trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation
responses. Improved coherence at all scales – from global through national to regional and local
- is necessary to tap into potential synergies, to avoid and/or minimise trade-offs while also
capturing the links with other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Research is needed to underpin operationalisation of integrating adaptation and mitigation both

from design and tracking perspectives, and evaluation of which approaches are most effective.
A significant challenge consists in the different spatial and temporal scales of mitigation and
adaptation and in understanding how they interact. More insight is needed on the interaction
dynamics within and across specific domains such as, for example, settlements (spatial planning,
architectural design, blue/green infrastructure) and land use/agriculture (agroforestry, soil, and
wetland management) based on real-life case studies and addressing various dimensions - legal,
economic, technological, social (including gender) and environmental. There is also a need to
better measure and monitor progress on adaptation effectiveness, which has traditionally been
more challenging than tracking mitigation effectiveness. This includes generating comprehensive
evidence-gap maps of the evidence on integrated adaptation-mitigation responses as well as a
strategic approach to fill existing gaps by high-quality evaluation work.

Finally, research should improve our understanding on how the adaptation-mitigation nexus has
(or has not) been built into existing policies and institutions, extracting the lessons learnt and
replicable examples of best practice across sectors, ecosystems, countries, and communities.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Improved understanding of the interplay between mitigation Digitalisation/AI
and adaptation will support the development of integrated,
economy-wide resilient net zero pathways with clear metrics to SSH
evaluate progress from a social, environmental, and economic
perspective. It can also increase the cost-effectiveness of Gender
actions and make them more attractive to stakeholders.
Biodiversity/
Ecosystems

Related fiche(s)
3.4, 4.5, 7.2, 8.1, 10.4.

48
6.2 Bridging the gap from Earth system science to impacts and
low-emissions climate resilient scenarios
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Climate resilient low-carbon development requires continuously updated assessments of climate

risks, for which an accurate understanding of evolving climate hazards and their uncertainties is
key. A central challenge is to accurately capture the changes in global to local climate responses,
depending on the emission scenario followed, given a cascade of underlying uncertainties (including
in climate sensitivity and effective radiative forcing at the global level, but also those related to
local response patterns).

A novel dimension of the latest IPCC report was the assessment of global Earth system emulators
to evaluate the climate outcomes of diverse mitigation pathways. This innovation, however, also
highlighted important research gaps, notably in translating Earth system knowledge for integration
into impact and adaptation assessments.

To tackle these challenges, we must improve the availability of tools, methods, and data to
incorporate and emulate the Earth system response and its uncertainties, especially at the
regional and local level. The most critical bottlenecks include the scarce data availability for
model calibration and validation, limitations in tools to accurately represent complex systems
(including high-impact tail risks), as well as integration of cutting-edge Earth system knowledge
into adaptation strategies, climate resilience assessments and mitigation pathways. There is a
need to bridge scales from global to regional, incorporating feedbacks and processes that are
crucial for understanding impacts and the effectiveness of climate policy measures.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

This research will inform risk assessments across a wide range Digitalisation/AI
of stakeholders, from academia over decision makers to the
private sector and the general public, enabling more effective Related fiche(s)
and more coherent mitigation and adaptation strategies 3.1, 6.3.
thanks to a comprehensive, holistic, and horizontal approach.

49
6.3 Investigating the interplay of mitigation and adaptation
through integrated scenarios with improved representation
of climate impacts
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation
The assumptions underlying integrated assessment models (IAMs) are insufficiently tested against
projections of both regional climate changes and climate extremes. Research should investigate
existing and develop new low-emissions pathways consistent with the temperature goals of the
Paris Agreement that integrate and are resilient to climate impacts, including extreme events, to
test their feasibility. This requires IAMs to better represent physical climate change and related
extremes, including frequency and magnitude of change as well as a more granular representation
of vulnerability, exposure and adaptive capacity that captures differences across populations and
ecosystems, as well as adaptation options and how these interact with mitigation pathways.
Relating climate change impacts, mitigation and adaptation measures to a broader range of SDGs
is also highly desirable.

With respect to climate extremes, there is an urgent need to better understand how they interact
with and constrain mitigation pathways - for example, how events such as droughts and wildfires
affect afforestation and bioenergy scenarios, including potential indirect consequences for the
population, food production, economy, financial systems, and political stability. This requires the
development of new approaches for evaluating and interactively computing changes in extremes
for emissions scenarios, such as regional climate model emulators, the integration of regional
biophysical feedbacks from land use and should have the capability to address low-likelihood/
high-impact events.

Given a significant level of uncertainty surrounding the future effects of climate change on land
and marine systems (e.g., permafrost thaw, tipping points, increased disturbances, intensified CO2
fertilisation effect) and, by extension, on their capacity to contribute to mitigation and adaptation,
further research into these mechanisms and integration of this knowledge into IAMs is also critical
to better understand the potential of climate action measures in the land sector.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Improving the representation of physical climate change Digitalisation/AI
and related extreme events in IAMs is of high relevance to
risk-proof mitigation and adaptation pathways, enabling the Biodiversity/
development of Paris-aligned strategies that are feasible, Ecosystems
realistic, and better capture the dynamics between mitigation
and adaptation options.
Related fiche(s)
1.2, 3.1, 5.1, 5.2, 5.3.

50
CLUSTER 7:
SECTORAL AND SYSTEMS TRANSITIONS

R apid and profound transformations are needed in all sectors and regions to reduce emissions
and avoid the most serious impacts of climate change. The IPCC has assessed the substantial
potential for reducing emissions in systems including urban, energy, buildings, transport, industry
and land use through reducing energy demand and transitions to low- or zero-carbon technologies,
materials and processes. It found that options to reduce emissions exist, costing less than $100
per tonne of CO2, and which, cumulatively, could cut global GHG emissions by at least half by
2030. Most notably, the cost of producing renewable electricity has become competitive with
fossil fuels in many parts of the world, driving the deployment rates up and placing renewables at
the heart of the transformation, next to energy efficiency, electrification, and circularity. The IPCC
is also clear on fossil fuels – they must be phased out rapidly. The positive message is that there
are many proven policy measures that can deliver deep emission reductions and build climate
resilience if scaled up.

The IPCC also found that changes in our lifestyles and new ways of delivering services enabled
by the right policies, infrastructure and technologies can reduce global GHG emissions in end-use
sectors (buildings, transport, food) by as much as 40-70% by 2050. A better understanding of the
transformation of demand-side provisioning systems is necessary to tap into this significant potential. It
requires research on key barriers and enabling conditions for a transition towards a shared and circular
economy, including better understanding of the interactions between individual behaviour, social norms,

51
technology/service options and available infrastructure, and how they shape consumer preferences.

In addition, there is a need for a more systematic exploration of the role of digitalisation in the
transformation towards a net zero future, with particular focus on unlocking demand-side transitions.
Notably, the convergence of advances in high resolution spatial data and the rapid progress in AI and
machine learning, presents novel opportunities for strategies that not only maximise mitigation benefits
but also increase climate resilience by fostering sustainable practices and informed choices at both
individual and systemic levels. Examples include analysing consumer behaviour to tailor sustainable
interventions, optimising transport, and energy management with co-benefits for flexibility of service
provision and access equality, streamlining supply chains for reduced emissions, minimising waste-
generation, optimising recycling operations and informing climate risk assessments by mapping areas
prone to extreme weather and other climate impacts.

In the context of systemic transitions, cities, as transition

hubs, will play a very central role in driving forward the Rapid and profound
climate agenda. They are home to more than half of the transformations are
world’s population and are responsible for three quarters of
the global energy consumption and GHG emissions. Cities needed in all sectors
are also hotspots of climate impacts with higher average and regions to reduce
temperatures and more intense heat extremes. Against emissions and avoid
this backdrop, they are emerging as pivotal actors in both
mitigation and adaptation efforts and as key determinants the most serious
of human well-being. For these reasons, cities are being impacts of climate
increasingly recognised as key actors for climate action, with change.
their role to be highlighted in a special report of the new IPCC
7th assessment cycle.

52
7.1 Improving global assessments of urban responses to climate
change
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Urban infrastructure plays a crucial role in achieving net zero emissions and enhancing
climate resilience. Nonetheless, there is an insufficient understanding of how cities and human
settlements can be fully harnessed to expedite these transitions. The uniqueness of each city and
its infrastructure, coupled with historically sparse and high-quality data on urban areas, makes
meaningful comparisons challenging. We lack rigorous ex-post evaluations of urban climate
responses, hindering our ability to understand the effectiveness of policies and their contextual
nuances. Given the complexity of large urban agglomerations, there is a pressing need for a
stronger focus on the metropolitan scale to discern their mitigation and adaptation options.

Modeling low-carbon and resilient urban planning with AI and the advancement of big spatial
data offers new opportunities for research to guide urban form modification in the context of a
changing climate: agile, AI-based, high-resolution tools can advance urban design at the scale of
individual streets, locations, and buildings to reduce energy demand and emissions in buildings,
urban transportation and waste while rendering cities more resilient to climate change and
extreme events. Research should build on new sources of data and rapid progress in AI that
provides the required granular representations of the complex structures of cities and human
settlements. Conceptual advances and most recent developments in AI (in particular, the advent of
large-language models) and in evidence synthesis methodologies can gather the vast amount of
scientific evidence on cities. Two challenges need to be overcome to leverage AI for urban planning:
curating high resolution datasets and developing machine learning algorithms that provide useful
insights for cities and municipal actors.

Research in this domain should also address systematisation of critical and sensitive AI-based
infrastructures that are key to support vital services and functions to urban systems and analyse
how different societal groups (e.g., children, disabled persons, elderly, women, marginalised groups)
use them differently. This will help draw conclusions towards urban development and planning that
is compatible with Paris-aligned mitigation and adaptation requirements.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

This area of research will generate evidence for municipal Digitalisation/AI
decision-makers on most effective strategies and modifications
to the existing urban form that would maximise climate SSH
benefits, while contributing to more liveable cities that provide
a high quality of life to their citizens. Gender

Related fiche(s)
7.2, 7.4.

53
7.2 Investigating the contribution of demand-side measures in
expediting the shift toward climate neutrality, with a
particular focus on the role of digitalisation
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation
The latest IPCC report concludes that demand-side measures and new ways of service provision
can considerably (40-70% by 2050) reduce global GHG emissions in end use sectors. Digitalisation,
driven by revolutionary developments combining AI, deep learning, and large data sets, is already
fundamentally transforming consumption and production patterns across scales, creating
opportunities, but also risks for climate action. On one hand, it offers considerable potential for
limiting growth in energy-demand, but on the other, it also risks inducing energy-intensive practices
(e.g., online shopping), not to mention the ICT sector’s own emission footprint.

First, a better understanding of the transformation potential of demand-side provisioning

systems towards climate-neutrality is necessary and requires research on behavioural, social,
and other factors determining uptake of demand-side solutions, with particular focus on the role
of digitalisation. Building on that, novel modeling tools need to be developed with a bottom-up
representation of demand-side aspects in transition pathways. Key barriers and enabling
conditions of shared and circular economy should be included in such a representation, capturing
the interactions between individual behaviour, social norms, technology options, and available
infrastructure in shaping consumer preferences.

Second, research should comprehensively investigate climate implications of the digital economy
and evaluate the role of digitalisation in unlocking demand-side transitions. Progress is needed
on identifying effective strategies for proactive climate-focused governance across actors, scales,
and contexts, addressing issues of risk, trust, engagement, and access (incl. gender dimension)
with an explicit consideration of institutional design. There is also room for progress on data and
AI governance for making cities, settlements, and societies more climate resilient, for example, by
mapping of heat, precipitation risks and other climate-related risks.

Policy relevance
Better capturing demand-side mitigation measures will widen Flag(s)
the option space, enabling acceleration of the transformation Digitalisation/AI
towards net zero emissions while minimising trade-offs
associated with supply-focused strategies. Careful governance SSH
of digitalisation will support climate change mitigation and
adaptation efforts, including at municipal and national scale, Gender
with a focus on low energy demand, and sustainable, resilient
service provisioning systems
Related fiche(s)
6.1, 7.1, 7.4, 10.4.

54
7.3 Informing the politics and economics of phasing out fossil
fuel infrastructures
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

The anticipated emissions from existing and planned fossil fuel infrastructures are projected
to contribute 600-1100 Gt of future CO2 emissions, exceeding the remaining carbon budgets
compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C. There is hence a strong case for fossil fuel infrastructure
phase out - encompassing exploration, production, refining, distribution and end-use, - and making
the underlying political strategies an essential element of the transition process.

Research should map the current state of fossil fuel infrastructures both in terms of related CO2
emissions and their economic value to define economically viable (or unviable) options and limits
for phase-out, repurposing and retrofitting to stay in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Repurposing for “green” fuels, such as low-carbon hydrogen and synfuels, requires assessing
the interplay between energy demand (including green carbohydrates that require high energy
input but allow flexible storage/load) and renewable energy availability (including competition with
alternative uses, and compatibility with efficient electrification strategies such as heat pumps). The
existing evidence on the deployment limits of green fuels in the transition towards net zero should
also be considered. It is also crucial to broaden the analysis to the political economy of fossil fuel
infrastructures, including common narratives in the media (including social media) and options for
circumventing the lobbying structures that work to prevent the phase-out.

Policy relevance
Progress in this area will guide the decisions on which fossil Flag(s)
infrastructures should be decommissioned, which should be SSH
repurposed or retrofitted with carbon capture and storage,
under what kind of timelines, and who should bear the costs in
support of overcoming the severe carbon lock-in of the global
energy system.

55
7.4 Reducing energy demand and quantifying materials and
embodied carbon in the building stock and other infrastructure
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Buildings are responsible - directly and indirectly - for 36% of the energy-related GHG emissions
in the EU, thus playing a pivotal role in the transition to reaching net zero emissions. Whereas
most European countries continue to invest in energy efficiency and renewable energy sources,
it is equally important to place a focus on promoting energy sufficiency (avoidance of energy
demand) and transforming the existing built environment in line with the net zero paradigm. More
research is needed for innovative solutions that can be easily implemented in the already built
environment and support energy sufficiency such as new wall concepts, new window frames, new
building materials with more thermal inertia and lower carbon footprint, new insulation systems
and integrated nature-based solutions (NBS) for refurbishing. This should be complemented by
work on prioritising renovation needs in the built environment. In this context, it is also important
that all public buildings in Europe become net zero as soon as possible to convince society to
invest in improving their own housing. A better understanding of the interlinkages between a low
emission built environment, urban planning and transport systems for people and merchandise is
needed to support more integrative strategies.

Embodied energy and embodied carbon in the built environment, including buildings, industrial
facilities, roads, and other infrastructure have now also been identified as an essential component
of the transition to a net zero emissions. The assessment of embodied energy and carbon emissions
relies on the understanding of the quantity of materials used or processed in the production phase
per infrastructure type. To address the existing gaps, more work is needed on the classification of
infrastructures in the built environment according to the types of buildings. The challenges that
need to be overcome include a multitude of different construction types that change with location,
age, final use, etc. as well as quantification of infrastructure by type. Then, research should support
the clear identification and quantification of the materials used per built environment type (i.e.,
type of building, type of road), together with the production and/or transformation processes
associated with each of them with a view to evaluate the embodied energy and carbon footprint
more precisely.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

More reliable emissions data, including embodied carbon, will SSH
improve the precision and quality of models that underpin
climate policies, supporting a whole-system approach to Digitalisation/AI
carbon reductions and allowing for better targeted climate
policies. This research will also inform strategies on how
to efficiently improve, repurpose and/or retrofit the building Related fiche(s)
stock, based on the Sufficiency, Efficiency, Renewables (SER) 7.1, 7.2.
framework.

56
CLUSTER 8:
LAND USE, AGRICULTURE AND CARBON
DIOXIDE REMOVAL
A s demonstrated by the IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land, sustainable land
management offers great potential contribution to mitigation and adaptation action. The land
sector has the ability to act both as a source and a sink for emissions, with opportunities to provide
biomass, mainly from forestry and residues, as a substitute for carbon intensive products. Globally,
emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses (AFOLU) contribute about 22% of total
anthropogenic GHG emissions while terrestrial ecosystems sequester more than a third of CO2
emissions. The largest near-term mitigation potential of the AFOLU sector comes from forests and
other natural ecosystems, with land-use management critical for achieving a balance between
anthropogenic GHG emissions and removals after 2050. The IPCC warns, however, that land-based
mitigation cannot compensate for delayed action in other sectors.

The links between land (-use) and climate are complex. Higher levels of warming will impact
the ability of land to store carbon, its productivity (by changing levels of water availability)
and the resilience of ecosystems, making the persistence of removals highly uncertain. For
example, an increase in droughts, wildfire damage, insect and fungus outbreaks, or permafrost
thawing can decrease the role of land as a carbon sink. In turn, adaptive management to these
impacts can also alter land mitigation potential. In addition, land also plays an integral role in
regulating temperature and precipitation patterns through albedo effects, evapotranspiration,

57
and aerosol loading.

Effective land-use management is also critically important for meeting the biodiversity targets
under the Convention on Biodiversity (CBD) and plays a crucial role in achieving several of the
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including those on ending hunger (SDG 2), clean water
(SDG 6), clean energy (SDG 7), and life on land (SDG 15). While many options offer co-benefits
for adaptation, food security, biodiversity, health and livelihoods, there are also trade-offs and
indirect land-use effects. Competition with food production is of particular concern. Therefore,
exploring options to alleviate competition for land should be prioritised, such as reducing meat
consumption and moving to more plant-based, balanced diets, reducing food waste, managing
discarded products, and exploring innovative food and feed sources (e.g., insects, grass-based
protein feeds, etc).

Policies targeting land-use need to be synergistic

with other policy objectives in the areas of climate, A better understanding
food security, biodiversity, and health. A better of the multidimensional
understanding of the multidimensional land-
and-climate-biodiversity-
climate-biodiversity-food-health nexus is necessary
to effectively manage the underlying synergies food-health nexus is
and tensions. Research should identify sustainable necessary to
land-use management practices and define what
effectively manage
institutions, strategies and policies are needed at
global, national, and regional levels. This requires the underlying synergies
a more in-depth understanding of the underlying and tensions.
dynamics in mitigation pathways, including
improvements in sectoral models and integrated
assessment models (IAMs) to better reflect the diversity of priorities related to land and biomass
use options and investigation of the political economy of large-scale land and biomass use.
Research should also support enhancing the consistency between global models and national
GHG inventories under the UNFCCC on human-caused CO2 emissions and removals for the land
sector to better evaluate the efficacy of land-based mitigation, particularly for the forestry sector.

Mitigation pathways compatible with achieving the Paris Agreement assessed in the latest IPCC
report include carbon dioxide removal (CDR) at scale in addition to accelerating near-term emission
reductions, to achieve net zero CO2, and to move into net negative emissions thereafter towards
net zero GHG emissions. Land-based approaches such as reforestation, afforestation, soil, and
forest management, dominate today’s removals options, but novel technologies like direct air
capture and storage (DACCS) or bioenergy combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS),
biochar, and enhanced weathering are also emerging. More is needed to explore CDR scaling as
resolved by mitigation scenarios and the development of policies and implementation options.
Finally, there is a need for research on realistic potentials, limitations, permanence, co-benefits
and trade-offs with other policy objectives, as well as public acceptance, in order to inform global
CDR policy design and governance.

58
8.1 Nurturing the potential of land-based mitigation
and adaptation
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Given its significant anthropogenic GHG emissions and potential for carbon sequestration, the
AFOLU sector is pivotal for achieving climate change mitigation targets. Contributions come from
conservation and restoration of natural ecosystems, improvements in agriculture and forestry
practices, as well biomass provision for mitigation in other sectors. While trade-offs may exist
between the objectives to store carbon in ecosystems and to produce biomass as an alternative
to fossil resources, these objectives are not always mutually exclusive, emphasasing the need for
balanced decision-making that considers multiple goals. In addition to mitigation benefits, making
agriculture and land-use climate-resilient is also crucial for protecting ecosystems and livelihoods,
and for safeguarding food security.

Research should delve into the complex interlinkages between diverse sectors involved in landbased
mitigation, including exploration of synergies and trade-offs between land carbon storage and
biomass production across various forestry and agriculture systems across a spectrum of different
net zero scenarios, while also considering adaptation, biodiversity, and other outcomes. There is a
need to better understand how the interplay between bio-based and other low-carbon alternatives,
policy, governance, land-use practices, private investments and public spending collectively shape
mitigation and adaptation efforts in the AFOLU sector. This requires advancements in both sectoral
and cross-sectoral modeling at national, regional, and global scales to better integrate climate
change dynamics with land-use and other sectors, while also enhancing consistency between
model outcomes and national statistics of GHG emissions and sinks. Advances in agent-based
modeling are also crucial for studying the implications of different transition pathways and policy
measures on farms, regional agricultural structures, and production activities. The significant
anticipated contribution of the AFOLU sector to the EU's pursuit of net zero emissions, with
consequences for other regions, makes the EU a valuable case study.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Effective mitigation strategies in the AFOLU sector require International
a coordinated policy design across climate, agriculture, and cooperation
other land-use relevant domains, in full consistency with other
than climate policy objectives such as food, energy security, SSH
and biodiversity related, whilst properly accounting for the
limitations and trade-offs associated with the contributions Gender
from the land-use sector.
Biodiversity/
Ecosystem

Related fiche(s)
3.4, 6.1, 9.4.

59
8.2 Fostering sustainable use of biomass for climate
change mitigation
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

While fostering food and nutrition security, sustainable management of natural resources, and
reducing reliance on fossil fuels, a sustainable bioeconomy also provides multiple avenues for
mitigating GHG emissions in the context of the transition to net zero. Mitigation opportunities are
twofold: a) carbon storage in ecosystems (vegetation and soils) through a wide range of diverse
land management measures and with multiple co-benefits (e.g. adaptation, biodiversity, soil
quality), though this is subject to reversals and disturbances (climate events, insect infestations);
b) use of biomass across different sectors as bio-based products, storing carbon and displacing
fossil-based alternatives, also susceptible to leakage as well as, in regard of storage, to reversals.
Although the two approaches are not mutually exclusive, they face trade-offs that need to be
accounted for in the policy design.

Governance and policymaking addressing the bioeconomy is generally challenging since the
optimal development of a bioeconomy varies geographically due to multiple, heterogeneous
conditions. Consequently, the expansion of sustainable biomass utilisation across sectors must
reflect a diversity of priorities and conditions, which must be viewed in an integrated manner.

Research should develop a new generation of global mitigation pathways that consistently cover
biomass demand and supply of different sectors. Such pathways should encompass the whole
biomass value chain (production, processing, and consumption aspects), account for indirect
land use changes and leakage effects, notably those related to deforestation and ecosystem
degradation, and address political economy issues associated with large-scale land and biomass
use. This will require improvements in IAMs as well as sectoral models to better capture the complex
dynamics associated with the bioeconomy, including better consideration of the competition and
synergies between different biomass and land uses in the exploration of mitigation pathways while
also accounting for the necessity to safeguard biodiversity, food security and ecosystem-based
services.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

This research will produce science foundations to inform International
sustainable biomass supply and use strategies in the EU and cooperation
beyond, maximising contributions to climate change mitigation
and adaptation, but also focusing on the broader sustainability SSH
dimension, and accounting for climate impacts.
Biodiversity/
Ecosystem

Related fiche(s)
3.4, 4.1, 9.4.

60
8.3 Achieving global climate, biodiversity, and health objectives
by optimising the management of food systems
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Climate change, along with associated adaptation and mitigation efforts affect the state of
biodiversity as well as the social and environmental determinants of food systems and health,
which, in turn, affect societies’ capacity for effective climate action. Food systems are associated
with 23–42% of global GHG emissions while also causing severe biodiversity impacts, including
from agriculture’s spatial shifts as an adaptive response to climate change. The food-climate-
biodiversity-health nexus is hence growing in attention and requires a coordinated policy response.

Accurately measuring the scale and impact of the interactions between climate change,
biodiversity loss and human health remains challenging whereas integrated assessments fall
short of accurately (or at all) representing those complex interfaces and associated land-use
consequences. Further research is crucial to enhance our understanding of the interplay between
the climate, biodiversity, and health dimension of food systems. This includes the direct and
indirect effects and cross-sectoral linkages and evaluating mitigation and adaptation strategies in
local and regional contexts within an evolving state of climate and biodiversity.

Improvements in integrated assessment and sectoral modeling, sub-system and single

technology assessment are essential to improve knowledge of emission trends and drivers,
adaptation and mitigation costs and potentials, regional specificities, sector-specific barriers and
enabling conditions related to mitigation and adaptation options in the realm of food systems.
Complementary approaches, drawing on disciplines such agronomy, engineering, natural sciences
as well as social sciences can also offer comprehensive insights into food systems and should be
explored to bridge system-level and bottom-up perspectives, addressing issues related to human
behaviour, lifestyles, gender, culture, and socio-technical transitions in both producer consumer
sides of food systems.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Definition of consistent and realistic transformation pathways SSH
within the integrated framework of the climate-biodiversity-
health-food nexus is essential for optimising governance Gender
of food systems and land-use to achieve climate- and
biodiversity-friendly, as well as healthy, futures. Biodiversity/
Ecosystem

Related fiche(s)
3.2, 9.4.

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8.4 Assessing long-term viability of agroforestry as a solution
to climate change and food security
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Agroforestry is widely cited as a promising solution for addressing low yields, climate change,
biodiversity loss, land degradation, water scarcity, food insecurity and rural poverty altogether.
Yet, the evidence on the resilience potential of agroforestry systems, which is a precondition for
delivering all these benefits, remains scattered, and the understanding of climate change impacts
on agroforestry remains limited. There is a large body of literature stating the effect of tree-crop
interaction on local evapotranspiration and microclimate, with corresponding benefits on farming
systems, but research behind this evidence is typically conducted at small/local scale and would
require larger scale assessments to strengthen the evidence base. Furthermore, the long-term
nature of tree physiology, and thus actual benefits provided by agroforestry systems require a
better representation of the complex interaction between long-term vegetation-climate interaction
and short-term socio-economic challenges to better characterise the feasibility and effectiveness
of this measure for a wide range of environments.

Many case studies that focus on agroforestry struggle to integrate the planetary dimension of
the impacts such as feedback effects resulting from land-climate interaction. Furthermore, the
magnitude of the effect of agroforestry on the water cycle and climate feedback is generally
overlooked in large scale modeling assessments. Research is needed to improve the representation
of agroforestry systems in global climate impacts and agroecosystem models capable of simulating
large scale vegetation-climate interactions, together with the implementation of these advances
into IAMs as well as land-sector models. Improvements are also needed in representing layered
vegetation structures in many land-surface modules of climate models. Specific agroforestry
systems and their role in food security and nutrition need to be studied with more granularity. In
addition, there can be synergies and trade-offs with other climate solutions - for example, large-
scale forestry may affect the viability and yield of wind and solar in some regions, yet they can
also co-exist as integrated systems.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Robust evidence on the benefits, disadvantages and trade- Biodiversity/
offs associated with agroforestry systems will help address Ecosystem
the food security and climate change nexus, fostering more
effective land-use management strategies, especially if the
modeling work is accompanied by policy and governance Related fiche(s)
research. This research will also shed light on whether benefits 2.1, 5.3, 9.2, 9.4.
from agroforestry are greater than those of alternative land-
uses, supporting the realisation of multiple SDGs.

62
8.5 Designing carbon dioxide removal policies and governance
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

The latest IPCC report emphasises that achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement will require CDR
at scale for counterbalancing hard-to-abate residual emissions to get to net zero CO2. Net negative
CO2 emissions will also be needed to compensate for remaining non-CO2 emissions to reach net
zero GHG emissions. CDR methods include conventional (afforestation, soil carbon sequestration)
and novel bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), direct air carbon capture and
storage (DACCS), ocean alkalinisation, enhanced weathering, biochar). These approaches differ in
technological maturity, deployment levels, cost, scaling potential, durability, and reversibility of CO2
storage, as well in terms of side-effects and trade-offs with adaptation and other development
objectives. Overall, more knowledge is needed on future CDR availability, not least due to the
challenges and risks associated with many of the methods.

A considerable gap exists between how much CDR is required in the modelled net zero pathways
and what the countries are planning in the medium (2030) and long-term (2050), in particular
regarding less conventional options. For example, achieving net zero CO2 emissions in the EU
by 2050 would require several hundred million tonnes of CO2 per year of CDR, well above
current levels.

Better knowledge, particularly from the social sciences, is needed to support the design of effective
CDR policies and governance frameworks. Research should enhance the understanding of the
state of art and pace of innovations in CDR, different CO2 storage times, levers for acceleration,
management of side-effects, options for maximising synergies and co-benefits with other policy
objectives such as food security and biodiversity protection and the implications for policy design,
institutions, and governance. Other evidence gaps relate to the political economy of CDR including
distributional aspects and consequences for regional development as well as the role of CDR in
international climate policy with particular emphasis on feasible deployment levels and options
for a just national, regional, and international effort sharing .

Policy relevance Flag(s)

This research will inform global efforts on how to develop robust International
CDR governance frameworks, including careful management cooperation
of uncertainties and risks, whilst avoiding overreliance. It will
also support institutional design to successfully incentivise SSH
the scale-up process needed to grow a new industry. Scientific
assessment of different monitoring, reporting, and verification Biodiversity/
schemes to inform the EU’s carbon removal certification Ecosystem
framework is also high on the research agenda.

Related fiche(s)
3.5, 9.4.

63
CLUSTER 9:
EQUITY AND JUST TRANSITIONS
Climate change is already negatively affecting inequality and poverty, both within and between
countries. It hurts the poorest and most vulnerable the most, undermining the efforts to achieve
justice and equity across the world. Climate-induced resource stresses - including on water,
agricultural crops, or other biotic resources - increasingly drive conflict, threatening the peace
and inclusivity of societies, and undermining social justice. Climate change-related impacts and
disasters are also key drivers of human displacement and migration and can worsen gender
inequalities. The transition to a net zero emissions society will also have significant distributional
consequences across countries, sectors, businesses, and households.

Against this background, the latest IPCC report emphasises the importance of prioritising equity,
social justice, inclusivity and just transition when addressing climate change. This fosters
transformative change, drives support for high-ambition climate policies by building consensus
and social trust across the society, helps to resolve trade-offs with other SDGs and leads to better
outcomes in general. The IPCC also underscores the importance to strengthen the consideration
of justice and equity in the formulation and execution of adaptation strategies, particularly when
addressing extreme events, to achieve greater outcomes by supporting highly vulnerable regions.

The Paris Agreement recognises the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and
respective capabilities among nations, aiming to ensure that wealthier nations support developing
countries in their efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and encouraging countries to

64
consider equity and fairness when implementing climate policies. The importance of ensuring a just
transition is being increasingly acknowledged by governments worldwide and mainstreamed into
climate plans and strategies. The European Green Deal, with its overarching objective of “leaving
no one behind”, is a good example. It aims at shielding regions, communities, and industries from
adverse social and economic impacts, and highlights the need to ensure a fair distribution of both
benefits and burdens of the EU’s transformation towards climate neutrality.

Therefore, the assessment of climate change impacts, risks and future development pathways
needs to be grounded in the context of the distributional aspects and equity. However, the complex
linkages between climate action and justice are still not well understood nor fully addressed in policy
responses and require more research. For example, there
is a need to develop mitigation scenarios with greater Prioritising equity,
attention to equity and justice that better reflect regional
and sub-regional development priorities, as well as the
social justice,
conditions and constraints of the poor and vulnerable inclusivity and just
communities and societal groups. The consideration of transition fosters
equity, justice and climate resilient development also
needs to be strengthened in disaster risk reduction and
transformative change
adaptation strategies, which frequently do not properly and drives support for
consider the needs of the poorest and most vulnerable high-ambition climate
groups or lack the gender dimension. Progress is also
a need in the exploration of inequity and injustice as
policies by building
constraints to individual and collective climate action. consensus and
social trust.
Given that justice principles are relevant to
mitigation, adaptation, and other sustainability
transitions, and to all sectors, research should support a more integrated treatment. The
AFOLU sector is one example where the immense and potentially competitive demand
for land and biomass assumed by low-emission scenarios makes equity and justice even
more vital for designing feasible and fair policies. Research is needed to better understand
the distributional implications of climate strategies in diverse agricultural, forestry,
and land use contexts.

65
9.1 Attributing climate impacts in a climate justice context
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

The issue of climate justice and procedural and distributional impacts is becoming critical as
impacts increase both in Europe and across the world. Extreme event attribution has advanced the
understanding of how human influence has affected the likelihood of occurrence and intensity of
climate and weather extreme events, increasingly leading to widespread impacts on ecosystems,
economies, and societies, disproportionately affecting vulnerable communities. While the science
of attribution has advanced, numerous gaps remain which require major scientific advances. These
gaps include the impacts and hazards being investigated, in particular compound and cascading
events, the interplay between slow and fast onset events, the regional focus on events being
investigated, and the relationships between insights from attribution studies relevant for today’s
climate and the potential high impact events or combinations of events expected to emerge in
the near-term (for example in a 1.5°C warmer world, relevant for this decade). Advances are
also needed to link information about changes in extreme event characteristics in the context of
wider sustainability challenges, for example including the water-land-climate nexus, taking into
consideration the related vulnerability and exposure.

While climate change disproportionately affects vulnerable communities and societal groups (e.g.,
children, disabled persons, elderly, women, marginalised groups), consideration for climate justice
in the context of the equitable distribution of burdens and benefits allows for an optimised way of
addressing the climate crisis. Policies and actions that integrate climate justice require science-
based attribution of climate events, and the advancement of research relevant for climate legal
frameworks, specifically relating to the emergence of responses to climate change in complex
societal, political, and legal systems. The analysis should consider comprehensively the attribution
of damages, costs and benefits and legal responsibilities in complex systems.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Improving the science of attribution will advance our International
understanding of the anthropogenic signal in climate cooperation
phenomena and impacts. This will not only impact policy, and
potentially early warning systems, but also serve as a basis SSH
for establishing legal responsibility in a fair and proportionate
manner. Gender

Related fiche(s)
4.4, 4.6, 5.1.

66
9.2 Improving the consideration of equity and justice
in adaptation strategies to build resilience
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

There is an emerging recognition that successful adaptation needs to properly integrate equity and
justice considerations to be effective and contribute to building lasting resilience. However, present
adaptation strategies at national and local levels often focus primarily on climatic hazards (floods,
extreme precipitation, heat stress, droughts, etc.) and first order impacts with standards and
methods to account for equity and justice dimension often missing. Much less attention is paid to
vulnerability reduction although it is central for adaptation measures given that adaptive capacities
differ according to the level of vulnerability. Consequently, just, and equitable reconstruction and
adaptation requires better consideration and reduction of risks particularly for the most vulnerable
groups and sectors.

Equity and justice need to be further operationalised to be relevant for practical adaptation
programmes, for example, by defining concrete indicators, quality standards and criteria. Research
is needed to analyse selected adaptation strategies and programmes and their impacts on climate
justice and equity across different societal groups (children, disabled persons, elderly, women,
marginalised groups etc.) and sectors. The analysis should capture not only first, but also second
order impacts of adaptation strategies, as well as their cascading effects. For example, relocation
has severe social impacts whereas large protection measures such as storm barriers may decrease
economic activities. These examples raise important questions about justice and equity in terms of
both access to adaptation measures and their differential consequences that research could shed
some light on. In addition, adaptation enablers and barriers often present a gender dimension,
which should also be investigated.

Policy relevance
This research will enable planners and decision makers to Flag(s)
better consider equity and justice in adaptation, risk reduction International
and reconstruction strategies in the broader context of climate cooperation
resilient development, enhancing their acceptability.
Gender

SSH

Related fiche(s)
4.3, 4.4, 4.6, 5.4, 8.4, 10.2.

67
9.3 Improving integrated assessment models to represent
different dimensions of justice and equity
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

The current generation of global mitigation pathways lacks a systematic consideration of justice
or equity. Even though these pathways incorporate assumptions about distributional aspects
and result in declining levels of absolute poverty across all scenarios they have faced criticism
for a continuing “equity deficit”. This deficit concerns, for example, slow convergence of gross
domestic product per capita, perceived inattention to common but differentiated responsibilities
and respective capabilities, and a lack of transparency.

A new generation of scenarios is needed, capable of more effectively representing justice and
equity considerations. This involves moving beyond pure economic convergence assumptions and
embracing all different dimensions of justice, spanning from procedural to distributive justice and
also addressing aspects of political economy. The new scenarios should be carefully co-designed
with key stakeholders and regional experts as part of a transparent and inclusive community
process including a review of key input assumptions and main elements of the narratives.

The representation of justice and equity in these scenarios should extend beyond the conventional
Integrated Assessment Models' (IAM) focus on interregional equity and burden sharing assumptions
for emissions reductions. It should include a bottom-up representation of well-being (social
and physical) and how mitigation and adaptation efforts affect the living standards in diverse
circumstances. It is also crucial to better integrate institutional effectiveness and governance in
the models to improve the representation of differentiated capacity and policy feasibility. This
requires a more robust integration of social sciences and empirical research into the IAM models.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

A wider range of socio-economic pathways with attention International
to equity and justice that better reflect the conditions and cooperation
constraints of the Global South will help promote broader
international acceptance of scenario findings with potential to SSH
unlock momentum in global climate negotiations.

Related fiche(s)
3.2, 3.4, 4.5.

68
9.4 Designing just transition policies for agriculture, forests and
other land use
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Agriculture and patterns of land use will need to change significantly in any scenario taking
the world to net zero GHG emissions, with implications for global inequalities across and within
individual countries. Just transition principles have been applied to energy transitions, but less
attention has been given to the AFOLU sector, despite the immense demand for land and biomass
implied by low-emission scenarios, leading to social and economic challenges. In those scenarios
bioenergy remains a major energy source, and additional land is required for CDR technologies and
renewables such as solar and wind. Simultaneously, demand for biomass is expected to increase
for food, including higher shares of animal-based foods, and material use. Such developments
might lead to the conversion of agricultural land to other uses, with implications on patterns of
land tenure, risking to further exacerbate justice issues through changes in the size of holdings,
ownership models, and landowner-tenant relationships.

On the one hand, farmers may diversify their land use and benefit from new income sources,
and the introduction of new cultivation systems (agroforestry systems, perennial plants) into
agricultural landscapes can enhance landscape diversity, habitat quality, retention of nutrients,
erosion control, climate regulation, pollination, pest and disease control, and flood regulation. Other
influencing factors with relevance for justice also encompass regulation and financial incentives
for actions that deliver climate outcomes, including the sharing of mitigation burden and benefits
(e.g., ownership of credits, liabilities for emissions).

Research needs to assess the implications of the transition to net zero for actors in the AFOLU
sectors, by interpreting mitigation and adaptation scenarios, and by assessing a variety of
stakeholder perspectives (e.g., elderly or gender) on the implied changes and identifying synergies
between climate actions and other policy objectives such as food security, biodiversity conservation
and human development. The International Labor Organisation’s principles - social dialogue, social
protection, rights at work and employment - should be an integral part of the research.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

This research will support more effective and equitable SSH
climate policy design by promoting and operationalising just
transition principles for land use. It will guide the creation Gender
of effective financial incentives and strategies that address
both adaptation and mitigation, while ensuring the equitable Biodiversity/
sharing of greenhouse gas mitigation costs and benefits. Ecosystem

Related fiche(s)
5.3, Cluster 8.

69
CLUSTER 10:
ACCELERATING CLIMATE ACTION:
LEVERS AND ENABLERS
The window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all is closing rapidly,
the latest IPCC report warns. Yet, despite the existing commitments and availability of multiple
feasible, proven, and effective options that can significantly reduce emissions in all sectors, global
emissions continue to rise. The pace and scale of climate action is deeply inconsistent with the
goals of the Paris Agreement, making these ambitious objectives increasingly challenging to meet.

This underscores the need for greater prioritisation of near-term climate action, with rapid, deep
reductions in GHG emissions in this critical decade, as this will largely determine whether warming
can be limited to 1.5°C or 2°C this century. The closing of implementation and ambition gaps in
climate policy requires research that draws more attention to the levers and enablers of near-term
action, and their incorporation into the development and exploration of possible future scenarios.
This includes optimising policy interventions to ensure they are fit for purpose to address multiple
global crises, environmentally effective, economically efficient, socially acceptable and rooted in
the best available scientific evidence.

For assessing the performance of policy instruments, rigorous methods are needed to learn which
strategies work and under what conditions. Feasibility and implementation potential are particularly
important criteria, especially in the context of key social drivers, dynamics, and tipping points to

70
achieve deep decarbonisation actions, together with a comprehensive assessment of enabling
conditions and barriers. Recent shocks such as COVID-19 pandemic, wars, energy, and cost of life
crises, can also provide lessons as to the ability to implement drastic policy interventions regionally
or globally (e.g., travel bans, lockdowns, shifts in energy trade patterns, mobilising trillions for
investments in safety nets and bailouts, etc.).

Amongst the essential enablers of climate action, finance has potential to serve as a major catalyst
for societal transformation. Adequate funding is crucial for the development and deployment of
effective, flexible, and affordable net zero solutions and
adaptation measures. Investors, both public and private,
have the power to mobilise and channel resources There is a need for
towards climate-related initiatives, influencing and greater prioritisation
enabling the society-wide adoption of more sustainable of near-term climate
practices. Nonetheless, substantial knowledge gaps
persist in our comprehension of the interplay between action, with rapid,
climate change and the financial sector, constituting a deep reductions in
critical barrier and a potential lever to scaling mitigation GHG emissions in this
and adaptation investments to the levels compatible
with the Paris Agreement. critical decade, as this
will largely determine
Communication is another key agent for climate action. In whether warming can
absence of a common understanding of the key scientific
messages, there is a significant barrier for society and be limited to 1.5°C or
policymakers to make science-based decisions and have 2°C this century.
an informed dialogue on the causes, consequences,
and responses for climate change. The propagation of
disinformation, for example via social media and traditional media, also causes confusion and
hampers efforts to communicate science effectively. In this context, research on more impactful
communication of climate science emerges as an important area of scientific inquiry.

Finally, acceleration of climate action will occur when it is made meaningful to people's daily
lives and incorporated into their thinking, behaviour and daily choices. This requires awakening
motivation in people and a deep desire for personal and social transformation, accompanied by
a sense of urgency, which fuel demand for changes from policy makers and the private sector.
Central to this is fostering the perception that climate justice not only exists but is actively pursued.
This requires avoiding the creation of climate elites that turn climate action into a luxury and
addressing intergenerational justice by strengthening the connection with younger generations
and incorporating their demands. Research on just climate transitions is thus a pivotal priority, as
detailed in the preceding cluster.

71
10.1 Communicating and translating climate science to
policymakers and general public
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

The relevance of climate change science for people's daily lives is growing, yet, for many, it
remains difficult to understand, in part due to challenges in communicating complex scientific
concepts. Despite the IPCC's efforts to clearly convey the assessment outcomes, the messaging
often remains technically complicated. The propagation of disinformation, identified as a top short-
term risk in the 2024 Global Risk Report of the World Economic Forum, further hampers the
communication of science-based evidence to decision-makers and the public.

Within the IPCC context, the science of communication suggests replacing passive strategies
with more engaging and dialogic approaches. Research is required to operationalise these
recommendations and, more broadly, to understand how communication can enhance awareness
and climate literacy to enable effective climate action. This involves delving into cognitive
processes of understanding and absorbing complex information, the influence of socio-cultural
factors, development status and values on perception and learning.

Improving knowledge on how communication can stimulate various actions, how to measure
outcomes, and understanding the interplay of behavioural change and wider societal choices
within broader political, governance, economy, and policy context, is also crucial. Research should
also identify the most impactful tools, messages, and co-design processes for communicating
about climate change, with links to journalism and the media.

Recognising the power of storytelling to instill agency, research should explore narratives that
integrate climate change information into people's lives, focusing on solutions-orientated
messaging that people can identify with. Beyond the array of available climate-related
visualisations, there is a need to bridge the gap on making data relevant to people's everyday
existence. Social science research is essential to determine the most effective messages and tools,
while cognitive psychology can contribute to understanding how individuals receive messages and
how these messages transform or influence their experiences.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Absence of a common understanding of the key scientific Gender
messages about climate change is a significant barrier for
society and policymakers to make science-aligned decisions. SSH
More effective communication is vital for aligning the society
behind ambitious and far-reaching responses, inspiring the
policymakers to make courageous decisions.

72
10.2 Understanding social dynamics, including tipping points, as
drivers of climate action
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

The current pace of mitigation and adaptation is falling short of the transformational change
needed now and in this decade to address climate change and its consequences. The barriers to
climate action need to be identified through monitoring and evaluation of past measures/policies,
together with the societal thresholds that can unlock rapid action. In the latest IPCC report, social
movements are considered as a catalyst for social tipping points, which either positively unlock
rapid social action or lead to system destabilisation. Empirical evidence shows that social tipping
points can be triggered before tolerance thresholds are reached, yet much better understanding
of these processes is needed.

We need to learn more about the relationships between adaptive capacity, social capital and social
tipping points, both positive (e.g., transformational structural changes for fast decarbonisation
and resilience) and negative (e.g., system destabilisation, social unrest, migration), the political
economy, structural power issues, perceptions, and also climate justice and distributional aspects
(including both costs and benefits of the transition). Migration decisions, for example, can be based
on perceptions of environmental changes by local populations rather than on actual changes
themselves. There is a need to better understand social perceptions and psychological aspects
of climate change, as well as the role of education in closing information gaps and bringing
motivation and societal readiness.

Future societal decisions are impossible to predict due to the deep uncertainty associated with
social structures, the many interacting processes, abrupt changes in other fields, unintended
consequences of certain policy decisions, and other factors. While the latest IPCC report has
comprehensively assessed the feasibility of mitigation or adaptation options, societal dynamics
(including social inertia, path dependency, disruptive change, user practices, actor constellations,
and regulatory environment) determine the plausibility of these measures being implemented and
deserve more in-depth exploration.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Investigating the activation of social dynamics towards net Gender
zero will help to design effective policies for low carbon
climate resilient transformation. It will also expedite the pace SSH
of climate action by providing insights on how to trigger social
mobilisation and pro-environmental behaviour.

Related fiche(s)
3.6, 4.3, 9.2.

73
10.3 Accelerating near-term climate action to meet
long-term goals
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

The EU and other jurisdictions have established near-term emission targets that represent
important milestones on the path towards net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. Meeting these targets
would put the world on a path towards meeting the Paris Agreement goals whereas failure
risks closing/narrowing down options and may place long-term goals beyond reach. Successful
implementation of climate policy requires research that draws more attention to the factors
influencing near-term climate actions and their incorporation into modeling tools.

Modeling activities that underpin transition pathways tends to focus on longer-term time horizons
and proceeds through multi-year time steps (5 or 10 years). The feasibility of emissions pathways
is another issue of key importance for defining effective and realistic response strategies,
including for the short-term. There has been some good progress over the past few years
with research addressing geophysical, technological, economic, socio-cultural, and institutional
feasibility dimensions. The existing emissions scenarios have been benchmarked against these
considerations, but what is now needed from the scenario framework is more focus on near-term
perspectives and extended plausibility analysis. By plausibility analysis we mean the extent to
which societal dynamics will plausibly activate enabling conditions or barriers, and hence the
credibility of mitigation measures actually being implemented. Plausibility builds on history,
context, and agency, each conceptualised based on theories of change, drawn, for example, from
social movement theories or organisational theories.

Issues such as labour markets (mismatches) and supply chains, finance, policy information,
institutional capacity, social acceptance, distributional and equity considerations, the influence
of and interplay with non-climate policies, political economy, and power structures (including
incumbents) also need to be addressed. This research could benefit from expert and local
knowledge to feed into near-term scenario development.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

This work will result in a better understanding of the feasibility SSH
and plausibility, as well as challenges and barriers to the
acceleration of climate action in the near-term, and of the Gender
capacity to enhance implementation. It will give policymakers
tools to assess the effectiveness of various policy interventions
to unlock ambitious near-term climate action.

74
10.4 Assessing the performance of climate policy instruments
using rigorous evidence synthesis methods
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

In times of multiple global crises and increasingly tight public finances, it is ever more important to
ensure that policy interventions are environmentally effective, economically efficient, and socially
acceptable and are rooted in the best available scientific evidence.

A growing number of scientific studies evaluate mitigation and adaptation interventions in terms
of how successful they have been in reducing GHG emissions and/or enhancing climate resilience,
but also relevant outcomes such as economic costs, distributional implications, social acceptance,
impact on labour markets, innovation dynamics, economic competitiveness, health, and well-
being etc. What is missing are rigorous evidence syntheses of this exponentially growing body of
evidence to assess the performance of policy instruments and policy instrument packages. Such
a synthesis exercise would enable accelerated learning in science and policy on which strategies
actually work, under what conditions, while identifying critical synergies and trade-offs with other
policies or policy objectives.

The assessment should be focussed on evidence from ex-post evaluations and cover a broad
range of policy instruments (e.g., market-based, regulatory, and voluntary instruments, information
and education programmes) across relevant outcomes and address compound effects on other
policy objectives. Climate-relevant policies with a different primary objective such as improvement
of air quality, protection of the ozone layer or biodiversity/ecosystems should also be covered.
With rapid advancements in AI, new potentials for accelerating or partially automating evidence
synthesis methodologies should be further explored as well as related research frontiers such as
“living evidence”.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

By enabling a comprehensive assessment of climate policy Digitalisation/AI
performance via a consistent systematic review ecosystem,
this work will generate rigorous, context-specific, and Gender
actionable knowledge for decision-makers, thus contributing
to the effectiveness of climate action. The identification of SSH
gaps in evidence including the lack of high-quality monitoring
and research will contribute to a more efficient knowledge
generation process around climate policies. Related fiche(s)
3.4, 4.1, 5.4, 6.1, 7.2.

75
10.5 Shifting to climate-resilient development
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Limiting global warming in line with the Paris Agreement requires comprehensive change that
is achieved not only by addressing the direct causes of emissions and immediate barriers to
adaptation, but also via understanding and addressing the foundational drivers of development
patterns, with consideration of distributional aspects and transformative levers.

Critical research questions remain open, firstly, to understand how development pathways have
evolved in the past. The literature on past systems change, notably at large scale, remains limited.
Understanding how past changes have been driven, and to what extent, is also critical to inform
policymaking today, including where climate was less of a focus. Secondly, we need to investigate
how current development pathways (across scales and contexts) affect our capacity to mitigate and
adapt. This is to identify where current development pathways constitute a barrier to mitigation
and/or adaptation and assess what could be achieved by changing them. Finally, research should
analyse how development pathways can shift towards sustainability and resilience, and how
that would affect progress towards development goals, in addition to our ability to mitigate and
adapt. It asks which alternative pathways exist for a given barrier, what are the implications, and
what is necessary (in terms of institutions, policies, finance, innovation, cross-sector, international
cooperation) to effectively implement such a change.

Addressing these questions requires drawing on many fields of knowledge beyond the boundaries
of climate research, such as development studies or sector-specific literature. Economics, social
sciences and humanities are central to this analysis, but within a pluri-disciplinary framework that
captures scientific and technical realities and acknowledging that there are competing visions of
how change can be achieved across disciplines. Energy- economy-environment modeling is one of
the relevant tools to address the second and third questions. A challenge is that unlike the climate
community, the development community has produced few forward-looking studies.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Answering these questions will provide a better understanding International
of how development pathways drive emissions, mitigation cooperation
and adaptive capacities. In turn, these are essential to shift
development pathways towards sustainability and resilience SSH
across a broad range of development goals, including but not
limited to climate. Gender

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10.6 Investigating how global shocks (fail to) enable climate
action
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Experience from recent global shocks (e.g., responses to the COVID-19 pandemic; the Russia’s war
of aggression against Ukraine, the energy and cost of living crisis) has shown that despite regional
or global ability to implement drastic interventions (such as travel bans, lockdowns, dramatic shifts
in energy trade patterns, mobilising trillions for investments in safety nets and bailouts, etc.),
these shocks have not been used effectively to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement,
sometimes even adding fossil fuel capacity and deepening lock-ins. Similar patterns often emerge
in the context of smaller or more localised shocks, including partly climate-induced ones, such as
in the case of weather-related disasters.

Research should investigate how we have dealt with these shocks to (avoid failing to) implement
the transformational change needed to avoid catastrophic climate change and how to make better
use of the opportunity windows provided by such shocks for more radical strategies/measures.
Deeper knowledge and planning are needed to inform policymakers on how to most effectively and
durably respond to shocks to harness their momentum for the benefits of climate action.

A methodological development of typology of possible shocks, from known unknowns to unknown

unknowns, could lead to an adaptive decision-making and operating framework. There is a role
for ex-post evaluation to learn from responses; equally we want to learn on how models, such as
integrated assessment models (IAMs), can be used to explore shocks, as well as updating scenarios
to take into account recent occurrences. There are also new concepts that have emerged. For
example, in health, COVID-19 triggered the "living evidence/living systematic reviews" paradigm,
where scientific knowledge gets continuously updated to enable an immediate response based on
the best available information.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

The aim of the research is to prepare decision makers for SSH
shocks, both in the sense of managing the direct consequences,
and to enable transformative climate action in those defining
phases requiring major societal and governmental responses. Related fiche(s)
This will provide relevant climate policy responses beforehand 3.6, 4.5.
to leverage the momentum of a shock, rather than focusing
on the short-term needs, reactively.

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10.7 Mobilising climate finance through improved understanding
of financial sector behaviour
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

The latest IPCC report underscores the necessity for significantly increased financial flows to the
Global South to meet mitigation and adaptation needs. However, challenges like high capital costs,
high levels of indebtedness and economic vulnerability hinder the ability of developing countries
to mobilise the required funds. Substantial climate-related regulatory interventions targeting the
financial industry in the Global North, including the EU Sustainable Finance Taxonomy, present an
opportunity to shape investment choices and enhance climate finance outcomes for the Global
South. The IPCC also identifies knowledge gaps in the assessment of climate related financial risk
as a major barrier to achieving ambitious climate finance flows in the near term. Underestimation
of transition risks by public and private financial actors often leads to inefficient capital allocation
that is inconsistent with the mitigation objectives.

Research should address knowledge gaps regarding how regulatory interventions targeting the
financial sector can contribute to a more efficient allocation of capital for climate action. It should
address various dimensions of impact, including additionality and liquidity in local capital markets,
particularly vital in the Global South. It is crucial to also investigate whether and how new data
points such as on taxonomy compliance and Green Asset Ratios, can be effectively leveraged.
Regarding financial risks, there is a need for a broader analysis of transition risks and opportunities
that considers a classification of all economic activities that could be affected, well beyond the
current focus on stranded assets in the fossil fuel industry. Research is also needed on bridging
climate change economics and asset pricing to assist the financial industry in better understanding
the weaknesses in their transition risk assessments and valuations.

Policy relevance Flag(s)

Understanding the implications of current regulatory International
interventions in the financial sector will help developing cooperation
more efficient policy packages, better capable of leveraging
increased levels of financial flows into climate action in both the
Global North and the Global South and including North-South
transfers. More realistic corporate finance valuation, better
capturing climate-related risks, will facilitate a redirection of
financial flows towards Paris-aligned investments.

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CLUSTER 11:
CLIMATE INTERVENTION
A s impacts of climate change unfold, and the efforts to curb carbon emissions prove inadequate,
interest in geoengineering is on the rise. The IPCC used to define geoengineering as a broad
set of methods and technologies that aim to deliberately alter the climate system - atmosphere,
land or ocean - in order to alleviate the impacts of climate change. The two key characteristics
of geoengineering are its global or regional influence on the climate system and the potential for
significant unintended effects that transcend national boundaries. Geoengineering comprises a
diverse array of options, but the literature commonly divides them into two main categories: solar
radiation modification (SRM) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR).

SRM methods seek to reduce the amount of solar energy absorbed in the climate system by reflecting
the incoming sunlight back into space through techniques such as artificial injection of stratospheric
aerosols, marine cloud brightening or space-based mirrors. Yet, SRM is fundamentally distinct from
mitigation action since it does not address the root cause of the problem - continued GHG emissions
- nor does it tackle other critical issues such as ocean acidification associated with high atmospheric
CO2 concentrations. This makes SRM the most contentious and potentially the most risk-laden
geoengineering technique. On the other hand, CDR intends to increase net carbon sinks from the
atmosphere at a scale sufficiently large to alter climate and includes a variety of methods, both natural
and technological, ranging from afforestation, direct air capture, to ocean fertilisation and enhanced
weathering. Both SRM and CDR can have multifaceted impacts on the climate system, influencing
regional albedo, altering atmospheric chemistry, disrupting circulation patterns, affecting nutrient

79
cycles, and introducing other, less predictable changes. These complexities justify the necessity for a
precautionary approach.

The controversy surrounding SRM arises from its potentially

very significant yet still poorly understood impacts and There is high
unintended consequences, introducing novel risks to both uncertainty around
the environment and society. Furthermore, uncertainties
extend to the institutional, economic and technical feasibility the response of the
of SRM measures, their social acceptance, and the hazards climate system to
related to (abrupt) termination of interventions or a reduced SRM, its side effects
commitment to proven mitigation methods. The risks
associated with the cross-border effects of some of these on economies,
technologies, national political and economic interests, the ecosystems, crop
possibility of weaponisation, and private sector initiatives yields, and human
driven by purely commercial interests, are all possible
sources of global tensions or conflicts, further exacerbated health, on top of the
by the absence of international rules, institutions and proper challenges related to
governance structures. international equity,
The latest IPCC report, while acknowledging that SRM may security, governance
reduce some climate impacts if surface temperatures and ethics
are decreased, qualifies it as part of “more speculative”
technologies for tackling climate change. The assessment
underscores high uncertainty around the response of the climate system and the side effects on
economies, ecosystems, crop yields, and human health, on top of the challenges related to international
equity, security, governance and ethics. The IPCC also expresses concern over, amongst other things,
residual and overcompensating climate change and the likelihood of abrupt water cycle changes if SRM
techniques were to be deployed at scale.

A more comprehensive understanding of the risks, uncertainties and limitations associated with
geoengineering techniques is essential to facilitate an open and transparent debate that could lead to
a global consensus on their use, including development of common rules, and, if deemed appropriate,
implementation of moratoria.

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11.1 Assessing interdisciplinary research on
solar radiation modification
Earth system science Impacts, risks and adaptation Mitigation

Solar Radiation Management (SRM) remains controversial but is gaining increased attention
from both the public and policymakers. There is a scope for more coordinated and transparent
interdisciplinary research on proposed SRM strategies with public institutions in the lead to
comprehensively and critically assess viability, impacts and risks. Knowledge gaps identified in
the IPCC reports should be addressed, such as the limited understanding of the climate system’s
response to SRM, especially at the regional scale, the risks and risk reduction potential to people,
biodiversity, and ecosystems, both marine and terrestrial. The following aspects should be tackled9:

▶ Context and goals, including modeling scenarios, strategies for decision-making under
uncertainty, and the capacity needed for all countries to engage meaningfully.

▶ Impacts and technical dimensions, including the properties of injected aerosol particles and
their interactions with radiation, clouds and atmospheric chemistry, possible climate outcomes
and subsequent impacts on socio-ecological systems, advancing monitoring and attribution
capabilities, as well as techno-economic feasibility of various SRM methods.

▶ Social dimension, including research on domestic and international conflict and cooperation,
options for effective governance, and integration of justice, ethics, and equity considerations.

A truly transdisciplinary approach, integrating aspects from Science, Technology, Engineering,

and Mathematics, to SSH (with elements from governance, conflict and cooperation, societal
acceptance, environmental law, equity, and ethics) is necessary, leveraging collaboration between
the respective research communities. It should be non-experimental and far from actual SRM
deployment (laboratory research would be acceptable).

Policy relevance Flag(s)

This research will provide policymakers with a toolbox International
necessary to perform risk-risk analysis on SRM, i.e., weighing cooperation
the risks of under-mitigated climate change against the risks
of SRM implementation. It will support advancing the efforts SSH
on establishing more robust arrangements and frameworks
for SRM governance, including research related aspects, in Biodiversity/
accordance with the precautionary principle. Ecosystem

9. Building on: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Reflecting Sunlight: Recommendations for Solar Geoengineering Research and
Research Governance. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

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ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use
AI Artificial Intelligence
AMOC Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
AR6 6th Assessment Report of the IPCC
BECCS Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage
CBD Convention on Biological Diversity
CDR Carbon Dioxide Removal
CO2 Carbon Dioxide
DACCS Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage
EU European Union
GHG Greenhouse Gas(es)
IAM Integrated Assessment Models
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
LULUCF Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
MAT Marine Air Temperatures
NBS Nature-Based Solutions
R&I Research and Innovation
SDG Sustainable Development Goals
SRM Solar Radiation Modification
SST Sea-Surface Temperatures
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WGI/ II/ III Working Groups of the IPCC
WMO World Meteorological Organisation
ZEC Zero Emissions Commitment

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As climate change impacts intensify globally in both frequency and
magnitude, and with scientific consensus on what is yet to come if the
world fails to act, the imperative to step up our collective response has
never been more pressing.

By providing the knowledge necessary to formulate effective mitigation

and adaptation strategies, climate science serves as a critical enabler of
climate action and a vital input to evidence-based policymaking. Bridging
the knowledge gaps in climate change research is crucial for guiding the
transition towards a low-carbon climate resilient future, for fostering
consensus and alliances, for empowering global cooperation and for
mobilising stakeholders across the society.

This report draws attention to where additional research is required to

effectively and adequately address climate change, aiming to inform
future calls under the EU Horizon Europe R&I Programme and beyond.

Studies and reports