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As explored in the companion report Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (NRC,
2010b), there is still much to be learned about the best ways of deploying science to support decision
making. Though not predictive, such models and exercises can provide unexpected insights into
future possibilities, especially those that involve human interactions. Ultimately, the collection and
archiving of data for such a system would need to be evaluated on the basis of potential and actual
use in research and decision making. In the following sections, the seven integrative, crosscutting
research themes identified by the panel are discussed in detail. A major effort is needed both to
develop appropriate local data collection efforts and to coordinate them into national and global
systems. Initial progress can be made by coordination across specific domains and sectors (e.g.,
coastal vulnerabilities, health vulnerabilities) and across scales so that locally useful information also
contributes to larger-scale indicators and vice versa. This caused a revolution of farming techniques
around the world, and some are still used today. These gases are natural in the atmosphere but have
been added to by humans which lead to a gradual warming of the atmosphere, which then leads to
global warming. Benefit-cost analysis is a common method for making trade-offs across outcomes
and thus linking modeling to the decision-support systems (see Chapter 17 ). For example, scientific
knowledge about the impacts of climate change and about the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of
different human and environmental systems—which typically requires analysis focused at local to
regional scales—is critical for developing and assessing adaptation measures. Continued and
improved observations, field campaigns, process studies, and experiments with smaller-domain,
high-resolution models are needed to improve scientific understanding of cloud and aerosol
processes, and improved parameterizations will be needed to incorporate this improved
understanding into global climate models. Improved data assimilation techniques have also led to
improved data sets for analyses of climate change. Vulnerability is a function of the character,
magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its
adaptive capacity (NRC, 2010a). The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due
primarily to human-induced 1 -.emissions of heat-trapping gases. Sea level changes are a
fundamental indicator of changes in global climate and have profound socioeconomic implications
(see Chapter 7 ). Beyond replacing aging instruments, there is a need to enhance continuity in the
observations, so that policy makers, informed by science, will have the necessary tools to detect
trends in important Earth indicators and craft wise and effective long-term policies. These can all be
evaluated through scientific research efforts (NRC, 2010d; Oldenburg et al., 2009). For example,
research will be needed to improve understanding and analysis of the credibility and effectiveness of
specific approaches, including positive and negative unintended consequences. Researchers hope to
avoid a gap in the satellite record because measurements from tide gauges and other satellite
measurements would not be sufficient to accurately determine the bias between the two time series
on either side of the gap. In general, it is reasonable to expect that the magnitude of future climate
change and the severity of its impacts will be larger if actions are not taken to reduce GHG
emissions and adapt to its impacts. Many resource and infrastructure decisions, from storm sewer
planning to crop planting dates, will be made in the context of continuously evolving climate
conditions as well as ongoing changes in other environmental and human systems. Decision makers
would thus be well advised to employ iterative and adaptive risk-management 5 strategies as they
make climate-related decisions. The key research needs for the science of decision support fall into
the following five areas (NRC, 2009g). And showing how climate change makes Earth “sad” is a
convincing way to encourage people to take action. In general, vulnerability analyses assess exposure
to and impacts from a disturbance, as well as sensitivity to these impacts and the capacity to reduce
or adapt to the negative consequences of the disturbance. I like how there are multiple different
options depicted that people can use to reduce their reliance on driving. In addition, the nation’s
research enterprise could potentially play a much larger role in addressing questions of interest to
decision makers as they develop, evaluate, and execute plans to respond to climate change. As noted
in Chapter 2 and discussed in greater detail in Chapter 15, little is currently known about the efficacy
or potential unintended consequences of SRM approaches, particularly how to approach difficult
ethical and governance questions. These improvements represent an important integrative tool
because they allow for the evaluation of feedbacks between the climate system and other aspects of
the Earth system. These actions and plans, in turn, place new demands on climate change research.
There are also ongoing changes in cultural, governance, and economic conditions, as well as in
technologies, all of which have substantial implications for human well-being. Chapter 5 provides
additional details on priority setting. However, as noted in Chapter 7, precise projections are not easy
to provide.
Emerging concerns about how best to respond to climate change also bring to the fore questions
about human interactions with the climate system: how human activities drive climate change; how
people understand, decide, and act in the climate context; how people are affected by climate
change; and how human and social systems might respond. The companion report Limiting the
Magnitude of Future Climate Change (NRC, 2010c) suggests that the U.S. goal be framed in terms
of a cumulative budget for GHG emissions over a set time period. Examination of both local and
supralocal institutions, markets, and policies will be required to understand the various ways urban
centers drive. Scenarios are critical for helping decision makers establish targets or budgets for future
GHG emissions and devise plans to adapt to the projected impacts of climate change in the context
of changes in other human and environmental systems. Scenario development is an inherently
interdisciplinary and integrative activity requiring contributions from many different scientific fields
as well as processes that link scientific analysis with decision making. Many decisions related to
climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation could benefit from improvements in regional-
scale information, especially over the next several decades. Researchers hope to avoid a gap in the
satellite record because measurements from tide gauges and other satellite measurements would not
be sufficient to accurately determine the bias between the two time series on either side of the gap.
To make decisions about climate change, a basic understanding of the processes of climate change
and of how to evaluate the associated risks and potential benefits would be helpful for most
audiences. Finally, it is clear that public policy is shaped not only by the formal organizations of
government, but also by policy networks that include government, the private sector, and the public.
Such efforts, often referred to as geoengineering approaches, encompass two very different
categories of approaches: carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere, and solar radiation
management (SRM). How can a research program provide information that will assist decision
makers in such regions. One lesson from the existing literature is worth highlighting—the earlier in
the process of technological development that social acceptance is considered, the more likely it is
that technologies will be developed that will actually be used (Rosa and Clark, 1999). It is the place
where plants and animals, including humans, live. Enhanced modeling capabilities, including
improved representations of underlying human and Earth system processes, are needed to support
efforts to understand, limit, and adapt to climate change. Indeed, many of the chapters in Part II of
the report identified vulnerability and adaptation analyses, developing the scientific capacity to
perform such analyses, and developing and improving adaptation options as key research needs.
Table 4.3 lists some of these needs. In addition, there is a wealth of observations from a broad range
of public and private systems designed primarily for other purposes—such as wind monitoring for
port safety—that could potentially be tapped to supplement existing climate observations and yield
new and valuable insights. Likewise, data on the impacts of climate change on human systems and
on vulnerability and adaptation of human systems to global environmental changes are critically
needed (NRC, 2009g,k). Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the
United States. One of the many effects of going green is what you can do in your households, which
in this case your flooring options. The devastating turn of events from environmental factors to
scientific one. The Pangaea theory suggests that when the world first evolved, it was one big land
mass and over a period of millions of years, plate tectonics divided it into different continents spread
all over the world where climatic conditions vary. It will also require pursuing multiple emissions-
reduction strategies across a range of sectors, as well as continued research and development aimed
at creating new emissions-reduction opportunities. Such processes can inform decision makers about
anticipated changes in climate, help scientists understand key decision-making needs, and work to
build mutual understanding, trust, and cooperation—for example, in the design of decision tools and
processes that make sense both scientifically and in the actual decision-making context. Table 4.5
provides a list of the related scientific research needs that emerge from the chapters in Part II of the
report. Thus, not surprisingly, many of the research needs that emerge from the detailed analyses in
Part II focus on human interactions with climate change (see Table 4.2 ). Human and social systems
play a key role in both causing and responding to climate change. While much remains to be learned,
the core phenomenon, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have
stood firm in the face of serious scientific debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations.
This paradigm currently has NASA developing and demonstrating new observational techniques and
measurements deemed useful for prediction or other applications. There are still some uncertainties,
and there always will be in understanding a complex system like Earth’s climate. For example,
individuals and organizations are currently far less energy efficient than is technologically feasible or
economically optimal (Jaffe and Stavins, 1994; Weber, 2009). The clear, loud message is a perfect
match for the drawing. They simply need to be inventoried, archived, and made broadly accessible
to enable the kinds of integrative analyses that are necessary for the new climate change research.
Moreover, consumers can adapt to changes in climate by changing destinations.
Studies conducted in the 1970s and 1980s demonstrate the feasibility of data collection efforts that
integrate across the engineering and social sciences to better understand and model energy
consumption (Black et al., 1985; Cramer et al., 1984; Harris and Blumstein, 1984; Socolow, 1978).
Equity and distributional weighting issues, including issues related to weighting the interests of
present versus future generations, are areas of particular interest. It also notes the need for geocoding
existing social and environmental databases; developing methods for aggregating, disaggregating,
and integrating such data sets with each other and with climate and other Earth system data; creating
new databases to fill critical gaps; supporting modeling and process studies to improve methods for
making the data useful; and engaging decision makers in the identification of critical data needs.
Another impact of climate change will be on biodiversity. Thus, managers and decision makers in
the coastal zone—including land use planners, conservation area managers, fisheries councils,
transportation planners, water supply engineers, hazard and emergency response personnel, and
others—will face a wide range of challenges, many of them place specific, regarding how to respond
to the risks posed by climate change. These efforts can be treated as a massive national experiment
that can, if data are carefully collected, be analyzed to learn which strategies are attractive, which
ones work, why they work, and under what conditions. Institutions shape incentives and the flow of
information. Such knowledge underlies the ability to solve focused problems of climate response,
such as deciding how to prioritize investments in protecting coastal communities from sea level rise,
choosing policies to meet federal or state targets for reducing GHG emissions, and developing better
ways to help citizens understand what science can and cannot tell them about potential climate-
driven water supply changes. The bamboos that many get to be applied as flooring in their homes
are from China. Such processes can inform decision makers about anticipated changes in climate,
help scientists understand key decision-making needs, and work to build mutual understanding, trust,
and cooperation—for example, in the design of decision tools and processes that make sense both
scientifically and in the actual decision-making context. Table 4.5 provides a list of the related
scientific research needs that emerge from the chapters in Part II of the report. Two proposals for
CDR—iron fertilization in the ocean and direct air capture—are discussed briefly in Chapters 9 and
14, respectively. In addition, improved analyses of the interactions of climate-related
variables—especially temperature, moisture, and CO 2 —with each other and in combination with
other natural and human-caused changes (e.g., land use change, water diversions, and landscape-
scale management choices) are needed, as such interactions are more relevant than any individual
change acting alone. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested.
Progress in both regional and global climate modeling cannot occur in isolation. Because corn
ethanol is produced from sugars created by photosynthesis, which removes CO 2 from ambient air,
it might be assumed that substituting corn ethanol for gasoline produced from petroleum would
substantially reduce net GHG emissions. Climate change represents a change in these long-term
weather patterns. Once absorbed, this energy is sent back into the atmosphere. This moisture then
falls back to the Earth as precipitation - rain, snow, sleet, and even the morning dew on the grass.
Considerable research on consumption decision making has been carried out in economics,
psychology, sociology, anthropology, and geography (NRC, 1997a, 2005a), but much of this
research has been conducted in isolation. Great tips for reducing our impact on the environment. In
addition to these climate and other environmental changes, coastal managers need to consider the
numbers of hospitals, schools, and senior citizens in potentially affected areas; property tax dollars
generated in the coastal zone; trends in tourism; and many other factors. However, despite several
decades of exposure to information about climate change, such understanding is still widely lacking.
Rather than focusing on precise projections of key system variables, integrated assessment models
are typically used to compare the relative effectiveness and implications of different policy measures
(see Chapter 17 ). As noted in Chapters 2 and 6, some of these feedbacks have the potential to
dramatically accelerate global warming (e.g., the possibility that the current warming of permafrost in
high-latitude regions will lead to melting of frozen soils and release huge amounts of CO 2 and CH 4
into the atmosphere). Such systems will thus play an important role in improving the linkages
between climate science and decision making called for both in this report and in many previous
ones (e.g., Cash et al., 2003; NRC, 1990a, 1999b, 2009g). The blue boxes represent factors that can
potentially be influenced to affect the outcomes in the purple circles. Consumers also have the option
of changing their travel plans quickly, if necessary. As discussed in Chapter 6, there are a number of
practical limitations, gaps in understanding, and institutional constraints that limit the ability of
climate models to inform climate-related decision making, including the following. If validated
against in situ measurements, such measures can allow for monitoring of human-climate interactions
at much finer spatial and temporal scales than is currently feasible with surveys or other in situ
measures of human variables. Models and experiments that integrate knowledge about ecosystem
processes, plant physiology, vegetation dynamics, and disturbances such as fire are needed, and such
models should be linked with climate models.
The research needs highlighted in this report are intended to both improve fundamental
understanding of and support effective decision making about climate change. A research program
focused on improvements to benefit-cost analysis and other valuation approaches, especially for
ecosystem services (see below), could yield major contributions to improved decision making. Some
of the energy passes back into space, but much of it remains trapped in the atmosphere by the
greenhouse gases, causing our world to heat up. An additional blow to the nation’s Earth observing
program was the July 2009 launch failure of NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO), which
was expected to provide high-resolution satellite-based measurements of CO 2 and other GHGs
(NRC, 2009h). The video: Guns, Germs and Steel is a prime example of how farming back in the
day could have led to some of the effects of global warming. The book identifies decisions being
made in 12 sectors, ranging from agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions being made in
response to climate change. Heat stress is another problem that affects people's lives. Anthes,
President of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Past President, American
Meteorological Society, and Co-Chair, Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space
(2003-2007), before the Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies,
Committee on Appropriations, U.S. House of Representatives, March 19, 2009. Climate data records
(see NRC, 2004a) are generated by a systematic and ongoing process of climate data integration and
reprocessing. Data does in fact show that temperature and CO2 are correlated. These decisions
would similarly benefit from integrated analyses or linked “end-to-end” models ( Theme 7 ) of how
policies and other actions influence emissions, how the climate system and related environmental
systems will respond to these changes in emissions, and how human and natural systems will be
affected by all of these changes—all of which again depend critically on observations ( Theme 6 ).
Now take a look at our atmosphere as it relates to greenhouse gasses. “CO2 makes up.03% of our
atmosphere, a very small amount of our atmosphere. These concerns only increased in the 2 years
following the publication of the interim report as additional missions and sensors were cancelled.
Seven cross-cutting research themes are identified to support this scientific enterprise. For example,
aviation is now prioritizing measures that help reduce CO2 emissions and hotels and restaurants have
implemented water-saving practices. You have managed to capture many different aspects of
sustainability on one poster. For example, crops respond to multiple and interacting changes in
temperature, moisture, CO 2, ozone, and other factors, such as pests, diseases, and weeds. However,
improving our understanding of the flexibility and efficacy of current institutions and integrating
this body of knowledge with existing work on international treaties, national policies, and other
governance regimes remains a significant research challenge. In addition, there is a wealth of
observations from a broad range of public and private systems designed primarily for other
purposes—such as wind monitoring for port safety—that could potentially be tapped to supplement
existing climate observations and yield new and valuable insights. High sea surface temperatures in
the Pacific set off a reversal in the regular westward flow of the Trade winds and ocean currents that
drift across the tropical pacific from America towards Asia. For example, many climate change
processes have considerable inertia and long time lags, so it is mainly future generations that will
have to deal with the consequences (both positive and negative) of decisions made today. Finally, it
is clear that public policy is shaped not only by the formal organizations of government, but also by
policy networks that include government, the private sector, and the public. These hydraulic works
significantly reduce the river’s delivery of sediments to the delta between the city and the Gulf of
Mexico, and thus the land-building processes that would otherwise offset the gradual subsidence and
erosion of the delta. For example, climate change is sometimes confused with other types of
pollution or with other global atmospheric problems (especially the stratospheric ozone “hole,” which
some people erroneously think leads to global warming by allowing more solar radiation to enter the
atmosphere) (Bostrom et al., 1994; Brechin, 2003; Kempton, 1991). There are many elements here
that are all working together to send one strong message about taking action to fight climate change.
It draws on several past analyses and assessments of research gaps and needs (NRC, 1992a, 1997a,
2001, 2002b, 2005a, 2009g, 2009k). The paleoclimate record indicates that such abrupt changes have
occurred in the past, but our ability to predict future abrupt changes is constrained by our limited
understand-. The report does not recommend a specific budget goal, but it examines a
“representative” budget in the range of 170 to 200 Gt CO 2 -eq 2 for the period 2012 to 2050. 3 As
the Limiting report notes, reaching a goal in this range will be easier and less costly overall if actions
to limit GHG emissions are undertaken sooner rather than later. LCA of corn-based ethanol and
other liquid fuels derived from plant materials (e.g., Davis et al., 2009; Kim et al., 2009; Robertson
et al., 2008; Tilman et al., 2009) illustrate both the value of the method and some of the complexities
in applying it. Hence, there is a critical need to develop, deploy, and maintain a robust infrastructure
for collecting and archiving a wide range of climate and climate-related data, integrating data
collected on different systems, and ensuring that the data are reliable, accurate, and easily accessible.