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Lecture 1 Intro To Probability

This document defines key probability and statistics concepts such as: - A guesstimate is a quantitative approximation not based on observed data but rather gut feel or incomplete information, while an estimate is based on observed data. - A probabilistic experiment is one with uncertain outcomes from a defined sample space of all possible results. - Elementary events are the finest possible outcomes, while compound events combine multiple elementary events. - Probability axioms define properties like the probability of an impossible event being zero and the probability of an event equaling one minus the probability of its complement. - Event types include mutually exclusive, independent, and collectively exhaustive events.

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yaseen wazir
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23 views

Lecture 1 Intro To Probability

This document defines key probability and statistics concepts such as: - A guesstimate is a quantitative approximation not based on observed data but rather gut feel or incomplete information, while an estimate is based on observed data. - A probabilistic experiment is one with uncertain outcomes from a defined sample space of all possible results. - Elementary events are the finest possible outcomes, while compound events combine multiple elementary events. - Probability axioms define properties like the probability of an impossible event being zero and the probability of an event equaling one minus the probability of its complement. - Event types include mutually exclusive, independent, and collectively exhaustive events.

Uploaded by

yaseen wazir
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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• .

Guess vs Guestimate

An estimate based on a guess or conjecture. ...


(informal) An estimate that is hardly any better
than a guess, often because it is based on
insufficient or unreliable data.
Estimate vs Guestimate

An estimate is a quantitative approximation based


on previously observed data. ... A guesstimate is a
quantitative approximation NOT based on
previously observed data – and is rather based on
gut-feel, guess, or incomplete information.
Subjective Probability
• Guestimate is like subjective probability
Classical Vs Empirical
Probability
• Theoretical probability (or classical
probability) is what we expect to happen,
where experimental probability (or
empirical probability) is what happens when
we try it out. The probability is still
calculated the same way, using the number
of possible ways an outcome can occur
divided by the total number of outcomes.
Probabilistic Experiment

• A Probabilistic Experiment is a situation in


which
• More than one thing can happen
• The outcome is potentially uncertain
The Sample Space
• The Sample Space of a probabilistic
experiment E is the set of all possible
outcomes of E.
The Sample Space
Examples:
E1 = Toss a coin, observe whether it is a Head
(H) or a Tail (T)
Ω1 = {H, T}
The Sample Space
Examples:
E2 = Toss a fair die, observe the outcome.
Ω2 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
E3 = Toss a fair coin 5 times, observe the
number of heads.
Ω3 = ?
The Sample Space

Examples:
E4 = Toss a fair coin 5 times, observe the sequence
of heads and tails.
Ω4 ={HHHHH, HHHHT, HHHTH, HHHTT,
HHTHH, HHTHT, HHTTH, HHTTT, ….
Even with very simple situations, the Sample Space
can be quite large.
The Number of outcomes in a sample space are
equal to
Number outcomes in the sample space, if we toss a
fair coin 5 times?

2 raise to the power 5=


2*2*2*2*2=32 sample points in the
sample space.
.

• Discuss construction of sample space of a


coin tossed twice, thrice, …..
Elementary Events vs.
Compound Events
• The Elementary Events in a Sample Space
are the finest possible partition of the
sample space. Only one outcome
• Compound Events are the union of
elementary events. More Than One
outcome
Elementary Events vs.
Compound Events
Example:
Toss a fair die. (E2)
The elementary events are
{1}
{2}
{3} ….{6}.
The events “Even” = {2,4,6}, “Odd” =
{1,3,5} are examples of compound events.
Probability of an impossible event is zero
and such an event is represented by the
symbol “Fie” or Null Set .

If A= { } then P(A)=0
Axioms of Relative Frequency (or
Probability)

• For any events in , the following facts


about the relative frequencies can be
established.
The Axioms of Relative
Frequency
Probability of an event can be expressed
as 1 minus the probability of its
complementary event.

For example P(M)=1-P(F) if


M represents male birth and F represent its
complementary event i.e., a female birth.
Events Types
• Mutually Exclusive Events
• Independent Events
• Collectively Exhaustive Events
Fundamental Theorems of Probability
(Addition Law for Non-Mutually Exclusive
Events)

• Suppose that 45 students are enrolled in


Statistics course, 33 are enrolled in
Mathematics course, while 5 are enrolled in
both the courses.
• P(Stat or Math)=P(Stat)+P(Math)-P(Both)
• In case of mutually exclusive events
p(Both)=0.
Multiplication Law
Find the probability of not getting a 7 or 11 total on
either of two tosses of a pair of fair dice.
For more examples see

Schaum's Outline of Probability


and Statistics
Author(s): John Schiller, R. Alu Srinivasan, Murray Spiegel
Series: Schaum's Outline
Series
Publisher: McGraw-Hill
Year: 2008
Watch the guide to using Genesis
Library in video titled “How to
Download Free Books”
You may like to watch my recorded lecture
.

on topics covered today, at


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HltZ2z
z37U&list=PL1vvBenCr5kvGBHu14KSFhl4YJY
p7Nd7r&index=2

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