972805

research-article2020
JTRXXX10.1177/0047287520972805Journal of Travel ResearchBausch et al.

Foundations of Tourism Research: A Special Series

Journal of Travel Research

How to Avoid a COVID-19

2021, Vol. 60(3) 467­–485
© The Author(s) 2020

Research Paper Tsunami? Article reuse guidelines:

A Tourism System Approach sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/0047287520972805
https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287520972805
journals.sagepub.com/home/jtr

Thomas Bausch1 , William C. Gartner2,

and Florian Ortanderl1

Abstract
COVID-19 reaction policies have had the effect of putting the tourism economy into a form of forced hibernation. Currently
there is speculation about what will happen as tourism begins to emerge from its dormant state. In this article, we use
the concept of a system to analyze the potential research implications of COVID-19 effects on tourism. In doing so, we
firmly place tourism within the concept of a system that relies on a steady flow of money from tourists to function. Three
scenarios, each with two end states, to cover the array of potential reactions and recovery from the pandemic are presented.
An impact grid is constructed to be able to follow the effects of policies and interventions on tourism objects and subjects.
Examples of how research may use the grid to uncover impacts are presented. Conclusions reinforce the need for a system
approach to guide COVID-19 tourism research.

Keywords
tourism system, tourist flow, disruption, scenarios, recovery

Background and travel ban. On the 29th of March, the number of flights
departing from Wuhan Tianhe international airport increased
The pandemic, brought on by novel coronavirus SARS- from almost zero to 139, reaching a level of 206 flights on
CoV-2, started mid November 2019 in Hubei, China. the 9th of April (Flightradar24 2020).
According to the World Health Organization (WHO 2020b), In the meantime, the virus SARS-CoV-2 spread over the
this new disease was treated as a local phenomenon by the globe. The WHO classified the crisis as a pandemic named
Chinese government for a long time. It took one and a half coronavirus disease COVID-19 one month later (March 11)
months before China reported at the end of the year (31 because of the alarming speed of spread and severity of the
December 2019) to the WHO a cluster of pneumonia in disease (WHO 2020a). Shortly after, the number of infec-
Wuhan, Hubei Province. One week later, the WHO pub- tions increased at an exponential rate in Italy, and just one or
lished a first “Disease Outbreak News” on the new virus, two weeks later in most other European countries and the
but already one week after that, a first case was confirmed United States (Johns Hopkins University & Medicine,
in Thailand. On the 10th of January, China documented the Coronavirus Resource Center 2020). Gradually, all countries
first death caused by the new virus (Qin and Hernández affected by the virus imposed travel restrictions and started
2020). After two more weeks (23 January 2020), the WHO to lock down single regions and, finally, even the entire
could not reach a consensus as to whether this outbreak country. In this way, core destinations of three of the world’s
should be assessed as a public health emergency of interna- largest tourism areas ranked by revenues, namely, Europe
tional concern. On the same date, China imposed a travel
ban for Wuhan, which, however, was issued too late to
1
avoid rapid and sustained transmission of the virus Competence Centre Tourism and Mobility, Free University of Bozen-
Bolzano, Brunico, Alto-Adige, Italy
(Chinazzi et al. 2020). This regulation prevented people to 2
Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota in St. Paul,
travel from or to the province of Hubei. Public transport St. Paul, MN, USA
was suspended and the airport closed. Shortly after, the
Corresponding Author:
population was obligated to stay at home under a govern-
Thomas Bausch, Competence Centre Tourism and Mobility, Free
ment “lockdown order.” Economic and social life came to a University of Bozen-Bolzano, Piazzetta dell’Università 1, Brunico, Alto-
halt. It took two months before the Chinese government Adige, 39031, Italy.
declared the end of the epidemic and lifted the lockdown Email: [email protected]
468 Journal of Travel Research 60(3)

(39%), Asia and Pacific (30%), and Americas (23%) collapse. Thus, the presented research results will contribute
(UNWTO 2020), had taken measures to stop the pandemic as valuable knowledge to handle some aspects of the crisis,
but at the same time also the tourism economy. The number but they do not cover the crisis in its totality.
of daily scheduled commercial flights decreased from around Similar limitations exist for the literature on tourism cri-
125,000 at the beginning of the year 2020 to around 30,000 sis/disaster response and management: In a review of 142
since the beginning of April (Flightradar24 2020). Most papers, Ritchie and Jiang (2019) showed that most publica-
cruise companies had to stop operating (Luscombe 2020), tions took a case study approach for a single destination and/
Alpine ski resorts had to end their season one month early, or tourism type or sector and noticed a general lack of con-
and large, profitable tour operators became companies in cri- ceptual foundations and framework testing. One field of
sis, needing state aid to survive, for example, Europe’s larg- management as response to crisis is the handling of resources.
est tour operator TUI with 1.8 billion Euros by the German The political interventions as answers to COVID-19 created
government (TUI Group 2020). within a very short time a tremendous volume of temporarily
This deep crisis of the tourism economy also has changed redundant resources: infrastructure, equipment, staff in the
the world of tourism research. There are obvious disruptions tourism business but also all types of public services used
caused by this crisis. Phenomena such as overtourism or the and needed by tourists. Being confronted by overcapacities
contribution of air traffic and cruise tourism to climate all over the globe and in nearly all parts of the tourism busi-
change are, at least temporarily, not observable anymore. ness, traditional answers for reallocation potentially will fail.
Additionally, some research using recent pre-crisis studies Consequently, change and challenges in tourism research
such as time-series and forecast data are not valid anymore, due to the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2
causing researchers to update their models with new exoge- virus have sparked a lively discussion in the tourism science
nous effect variables. Empirical studies working with per- community. The “Tourism Research Information Network”
sonal interviews had to be stopped as well as long-running TRINET is the largest information exchange platform of
longitudinal studies, which might fail because of the incom- tourism scholars in the world, with currently about 3,350
parability of data collected before, during, and after the cri- registered subscribers (information from TRINET adminis-
sis. On the other hand, the crisis opens a door for new tration from end of March 2020). It showed a rapid increase
research as new phenomena can be observed, tracked, mea- of discussion threads dealing with diverse topics caused or
sured and analyzed. It is almost a given that industry sectors, linked with the virus since the end of February. To create an
destinations, and policy makers are searching for advice overview of the new COVID-19 research activities, a new
about how to handle the crisis for a fast recovery. web-page www.tourismtransformed.com has been set up by
Disruptions in tourism are nothing unknown. They had R. Ohridska-Olson, P. Singh Manhas, B. M. Kitheka, and A.
been studied in a variety of contexts, covering innovative, A. Lew (Travel & Tourism Transformed 2020) listing a large
social, market, or environmental disruption. Innovative dis- number of special issues book projects from publishers and
ruption caused by the emergence of the sharing economy research proposals.
were discussed by Guttentag (2015), Sovani and Jayawardena The question the world and research are facing with the
(2017), Widtfeldt Meged and Zillinger (2018), and Dogru, COVID-19 pandemic is not whether there will be significant
Mody, and Suess (2019). Veiga et al. (2017) describe disrup- disruptions as a result of the virus but where those disrup-
tion of tourism markets by the changes of consumer prefer- tions will occur, how long they will last, and what elements
ences through the generational shift of millennials. Disruption of the tourism economy will emerge from this battered and
based on social disruption theory and brought on by rapid diminished system but ready to embark on the road to recov-
tourism growth (Perdue, Long, and Kang 1999; Park and ery. The most promising way to try and understand the impli-
Stokowski 2009; Han, Wong, and Ho 2018) as well as dis- cations of something so disruptive as a pandemic is to
ruption through crisis and disaster from the perspective of understand how the affected system operates. That is what
companies (Henderson 2005; Hirudayaraj and Sparkman this article tries to do by offering a theoretical review of the
2019), the airline sector (Amankwah-Amoah 2016), and des- tourism system in place and providing practical examples of
tinations or regional economies (Cole 2010; Montenegro scenario building by subjecting different elements of the sys-
et al. 2014; Gani, Ramjit, and Nazki 2018; Starosta, Budz, tem to different stresses. Furthermore, methodological con-
and Krutwig 2019; Jawahar and E. N. 2020) are further siderations concerning the identification of research topics
observed and studied types. The dimension of the disruption and the use of existing knowledge will be drawn.
caused by the COVID-19 pandemic goes far beyond all
these types and happens globally at once. Often the disrup-
Tourism as a System
tions described are of a fundamentally different character.
For example, social disruption theory was applied to rapid The fundamental question is how the pandemic and its long-
growth but so far not to dramatic decline. Disruptions caused term effects change tourism. This needs a differentiated view
by innovation and new business models took place in stable of tourism in all dimensions. In other words, a system
or even growing markets and not in a situation of a market approach. In extant literature several models for tourism as a
Bausch et al. 469

Table 1. Tourism Systems in Literature.

Tourism System Type Focus of Model References

Tourism as a Description of tourism as a part of the Holecek (1995), Kaspar (1996), E. Bailey and
subsystem anthropogenic and natural world Richardson (2010), Britton (2016)
Tourism as a field of research and education Jafari and Ritchie (1981), Tribe (1997)
Tourism as a system Tourism as a result of tourist attraction and Leiper (1979), Leiper (1990)
of flows of tourists individual decisions of tourists
Tourism as systems Tourism as a functioning system of interrelated Gunn (1994, 1997)
of interacting parts, connecting supply and demand
elements and actors Tourism as a chaotic system of complex McKercher (1999)
interconnected elements
Tourism systems as complex networks Baggio (2008), Baggio, Scott, and Cooper
(2010), Fernandes, Brandão, and Costa (2017)
Tourism as a consumption system Woodside and Dubelaar (2002)
Tourism as dynamic Complex systems modeling local tourism systems Jere Lazanski and Kljajić (2006)
systems addressing Predicting effects of tourism development Mai and Smith (2015, 2018)
specific aspects Modeling tourist decision making McCabe, Li, and Chen (2016)
Dynamic models for tourism demand Neumayer (2004), Garín-Muñoz (2006), Garín-
Muñoz and Montero-Martín (2007)
Thematic tourism Multilevel perspective resilience of tourism Amore, Prayag, and Hall (2018)
systems systems at the destination level
Governance of tourism systems in a management- Hristov and Zehrer (2015), Salvado and
leadership cycle Kastenholz (2017), Kazandzhieva and Santana
Wine tourism eco systems (2019), Woodside, Caldwell, and Spurr 2006
E-tourism system
Leisure travel constraints and influencing factors
Tourism system as Discussion of phenomena interrelated with tourism where “tourism system” is used as a metaphor but
metaphor without giving an explicit definition. The focus varies from case studies (e.g., the tourism system of South
Africa) to general aspects (e.g., impact of climate change on the tourism system). This type of tourism
system usage in the literature can be found frequently.

system can be found. As models are a simplified picture of 1995; Kaspar 1996). Policy makers react by nonpharmaceu-
reality, it is logical that there does not exist one single model, tical interventions (NPIs; Cowling et al. 2020) as well as by
as varying the perspective leads to other models. Six types of financial and economic policy measures. Societies change
perspectives can be found in the literature (see Table 1). their awareness of risks in daily life, including individual
The virus SARS-CoV2 in its origin is not the result of decisions about traveling. Nature shows some recovery in
tourism. It is a tourism external intruder, an exogenous lockdown areas, including wildlife taking back tourist-free
shock, in the anthropogenic sphere causing a change of sub- areas (The Guardian 2020). However, the tourism system as
ordinate systems of tourism. a subsystem is not changed. It still consists of two major ele-
From all existing tourism systems described in the litera- ments: tourism objects and tourism subjects. Tourism objects
ture, the authors chose the first two model types (Figure 1A cover all types of private and public businesses, organiza-
and 1B) as the basis for further discussion. To derive an tions, and resources. Tourism subjects are a grouping of tour-
applicable and easy-to-use research classification, which ists and locals sharing tourism objects at a destination level.
will be presented later as a tourism research grid, static tour- The change of the framework conditions changes processes
ism systems are favorable. Nevertheless, they allow to add or and management activities of objects and individual behav-
erase system elements, to increase or decrease their impor- ior of subjects in the tourism system but not the general
tance, and to create new connections or drop existing ones. structure of the system itself.
By this, they allow to introduce dynamic elements and later The tourism system as described in Figure 1B is akin to a
to work in detail with dynamic subsystems as they are listed biological system in the sense that it relies on a steady flow
in Table 1. However, the tourism system is a highly complex to function. In a biological system, the flow is composed of
and dynamic network, which is composed of nonlinear rela- fluids that sustain and grow the biological organism. In the
tionships (Baggio 2008) and is highly influenced by feed- tourism system, as in all other economy-based systems, the
back mechanisms, creating intended as well as unintended flow is money. In the case of tourism, the flow is carried and
effects (Mai and Smith 2015, 2018). disseminated primarily by tourists (Figure 2A) through a
Conceptualizing tourism as an embedded system system of intermediaries to destinations. The amount of flow
(Figure 1A), the changes caused by COVID-19 take place in is symbolized in the figure through the size of the arrows
the framing conditions—the subordinate systems (Holecek between the elements. The tourists are groups of people
470 Journal of Travel Research 60(3)

A B

Figure 1. Tourism as (A) embedded and (B) flow systems.

Figure 2. Tourism flow system (A) before COVID-19 and (B) after COVID-19 travel restrictions.
Bausch et al. 471

traveling from different regions and for different reasons system remains intact but the global disruption forces some
such as leisure or business travel, represented in the model operations to function at a diminished level while some sys-
through the source markets Sn and illustrated in the figure tem elements struggle to survive. Recent changes have seen
with five symbolic source markets S1 to S5. A second group the introduction of a sharing society into the heavily con-
of system elements are intermediaries, offering services to trolled accommodations sector through the introduction of
plan, book, and organize these journeys. Travel agents, tour Airbnb, although other sharing sites such as VRBO preceded
operators, as well as airlines, railway companies, and other it. But has this led to a change of the tourism system? No, as
carriers bring tourists from their home to the holiday destina- Airbnb only took a structural change in the group of interme-
tion. These are named In and are exemplified in the figure by diaries and expanded it. The general components of the flow
five symbolic intermediaries of different size by I1 to I5. The model did not change—it just added another intermediary
third group of system elements are destinations Dn and their changing process and the adaptation of new management
network of businesses offering touristic and nontouristic ser- practices. The strong control exerted over the accommoda-
vices, such as hotels, gastronomy, retail, and local transport. tions sector by businesses that for years had been in a posi-
The figure shows five symbolic destinations D1 to D5 with tion of power began to erode (Guttentag 2015). Overtourism
different sizes and capacities. became one of the system responses to this emergence of a
There are many concerns and issues brought on by the vast new supply of destination accommodations no longer
flow of tourist money that affects components of the system. controlled by a few hoteliers. Lyft and Uber have done the
The direction and intensity of the flow first of all is caused by same thing to local private ride services. New ways of doing
the attractions (Leiper 1990). Overtourism is one example of some of the same old things can change the conditions and
unintended consequences, caused by an increased flow to interrelations of a system, leading to both desired (i.e., new
outstanding and unique attractions (Avond et al. 2019). It markets) and unexpected (i.e., overtourism) changes
exceeds what some elements in a local system might find (Bourliataux-Lajoinie, Dosquet, and del Olmo Arriaga 2019).
acceptable while others in the system actively promote a Structural changes such as adding a new accommodation
greater flow to the same attractions. The extent of flow is form affect the flow and thereby create issues that were not
situational, which cannot be any clearer than at this moment previously considered relevant.
when the responses to COVID-19 have virtually cut off the
flow of tourist money to many areas in the world (Figure Future Scenarios of the Tourism
2B). Venice, Dubrovnik, Amsterdam, and Pattaya as tourist
destinations, inter alia, no longer have an overtourism prob-
System Considering COVID-19
lem. Rather they are experiencing an undertourism problem There are many unknowns when trying to project the after-
brought on by a greatly diminished flow in the system from math of the COVID-19 pandemic. These unknowns make it
the tourist-generating regions (Leiper 1979). Even when very difficult to forecast the future or even to construct
structural elements connecting the tourist-generating regions research studies necessary to study short-term and interme-
and the destinations move to increase the flow, as through diate impacts. No one really knows how long the pandemic
government support policies, the flow on the transit routes will last, if there will be treatments or a cure in the near
may not be turned back on until the carriers of the flow (i.e., future, or if draconian NPIs such as quarantine require-
tourists) decide to turn it back on. ments will be imposed on all international travelers. But
As shown in Figure 2, the COVID-19 pandemic leads to some things are fairly easy to predict based on what had
political decisions (Gostin and Wiley 2020), which cut the been happening in the tourism system before the disruption
flow in the system from one day to the next. The main com- brought on by the pandemic. There are five obvious triggers
ponents of the system remain at the first moment untouched: from reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic influencing the
there are still people having the wish to travel, and there are tourism system as described by the model presented in
intermediaries linking the source markets with the destina- Figure 2A:
tions being able to offer services needed to organize a trip.
And no destination disappears. They are just unavailable 1. Travel restrictions preventing the population from
because of the travel restrictions imposed, thereby interrupt- leaving their place of residence. This makes the travel
ing the flow. Over time, the size of system elements, as of tourists with their flow of money from the source
source markets, capacities of intermediaries, as well as desti- markets (Sn) impossible.
nations, might change. In extreme cases, it also might hap- 2. Lockdown of regions, or at a national level (Sjödin
pen that an important intermediary like a large airline or et al. 2020), including the mandatory closure of
cruise-line fails or some destinations remain inaccessible for accommodations, restaurants, and tourism-related
a longer time . Nevertheless, it is very unlikely that the virus attractions. Locking the attractions stops the flow as
will destroy the reason of traveling to a destination, that is, there is no more reason to visit a place. Furthermore,
the attractions. Thus, the general components and basic prin- the capacities of the destinations (Dn) become
ciples of functioning remain the same. In other words, the unavailable.
472 Journal of Travel Research 60(3)

3. Intensive search for a vaccine and/or effective treat- 2020). The duration and volume of bailouts will differ among
ments. Their availability (Dresden 2020) is the basis countries. What we saw at the beginning of the crisis had
for stopping the two types of NPIs and reopen the been ad hoc support programs in most of the countries, creat-
transit routes and revitalize the flow. A vaccine will ing a high money flow in the tourism system substituting the
bring back the demand from source markets (Sn), tourist money by state aids. For example, the US Senate
allow intermediaries (In) to restart their services, and approved a “$75 billion for industry-specific loans to airlines
lead to a stepwise reopening of the destinations (Dn). and other hard-hit sectors” (Cochrane and Fandos 2020) that
However, it is not at all clear how much of the flow was later supported by the US Congress and became part of
will return and in what time frame. a bill signed into law by the president. Recently, the govern-
4. State interventions including massive bailout pro- ment of France provided direct subsidies of approximately 3
grams to keep economies running and to avoid fail- billion Euros and loan security for an addition 4 billion Euros
ure of system-relevant tourism objects (i.e., elements). (European Commission 2020a). End of April 2020, the total
These affect tourism objects acting as linking inter- sum of direct state aid and loan guarantees for European air-
mediaries (In) such as airlines, tour operators, and the lines summed up to more than 30 billion Euros (J. Bailey
huge number of tourism businesses in the destina- 2020). Worldwide, most countries announced to support
tions (Dn), primarily the small and medium enter- their “system relevant” tourism companies such as major air-
prises, seeking support for survival. Despite these lines, airports, or big players from tour-operating or cruising.
interventions, it is very likely that some tourism So far, it is uncertain if this will be limited to a one-time
objects will fail. This will change the overall capacity bailout or needs to be extended for businesses most at risk
of intermediaries as well as the competition between (b1). If the countries continue payments without limitations
them, consequently affecting the flow on the transit (b2), who is to receive them? Intermediaries that carry the
routes. It will also affect capacities in destinations as flow? Large corporate entities that overall account for the
some of the most vulnerable tourism-dependent busi- most capacity in a destination? Or SMEs that are the life-
nesses fail. blood of many local entrepreneurs? One could argue that the
5. Recession, and possibly depression, is an unavoid- tourists themselves need support payments, which is happen-
able result of the lockdown of entire economies ing in some countries through direct payments to residents,
(OECD 2020). This will reduce the volume of tour- as they are responsible for the flow (The Economist 2020).
ists from generating regions, the source markets (Sn). Without tourists, businesses dependent on tourism are essen-
Furthermore, the travel budgets of those who still are tially empty shells. Regardless of the bailouts, a recession
willing or have to travel might shrink as well. As the has occurred. Although recessions showed a moderate nega-
money spent by tourists is the product of the volume tive impact on leisure travel in the past, business travel was
and the budgets of tourists, these two effects of a always hurt earlier and at a greater rate. The most negative
recession exacerbate the reduction of flow. Even impacts occur when there is a fast and strong decline of the
when the virus is no longer an issue affecting travel, number of travelers in combination with a significant reduc-
the extent of its effects can linger for a long time, tion of the average budget per traveler (r1). This would sig-
depending on how severe the effects have been on nificantly reduce the flow in the system and make it more
structural elements in the system. likely that a recovery will not occur within a short period.
The hope of many countries is that bailouts will bridge the
The described five main effects on the tourism system and its lockdown period, recession will be moderate in 2020 and the
components do not show up globally at the same time and first signs of a global recovery will appear already in 2021
intensity. And all are unpredictable concerning their end. (r2). However, whatever recovery results, it will be uneven.
Regarding travel restrictions, three levels are relevant: full Parts of the world, such as Sub-Saharan Africa where health
restrictions, returning from “unavoidable” trips implies 2 and economic systems were already stressed, may not be
weeks’ quarantine (t1); national traveling allowed within able to recover for a longer period of time (Cordall 2020). It
some countries, mandatory use of surveillance apps, and is important to remember the situation in place before the
some bilateral alleviations (t2); and finally, if most interna- economic distress caused by policies to stem the pandemic to
tional traveling is allowed, in some countries the use of sur- understand implications for the future post pandemic.
veillance apps will be mandatory (t3). The lockdown of Ancillary effects, although not modeled by a tourism sys-
tourism objects can be categorized in two stages: first, the tem, are potentially even more serious. Some countries rely
lockdown of accommodations, restaurants, and attractions on tourism for an inordinate amount of their GDP. If a large
(l1) and, second, the reopening of all tourism-relevant objects percentage of people in these countries fall deeper into pov-
but still under mandatory regulations about distancing and erty as a result of tourism flow reductions, starvation is a very
hygiene. The availability of a vaccine is of the binary type: serious concern. Failing economies can lead to failing states,
no (v1) and yes (v2). Currently, experts do not expect a vac- rising crime, global terrorism threats, and a prolonged depres-
cine before the end of 2020 (Weintraub, Yadav, and Berkley sion due to safety and security concerns, further reducing the
Bausch et al. 473

Table 2. Minimum and Maximum Flow Scenarios from the Short Term to the Long Term.

COVID-19–Induced States of System Triggers

Flow Travel LOCKDOWN Vaccine Bailout Recession

Timeline Scenario Restrictions Tourism Objects Availability (Economy) (Tourists)
Short-term before start Min t1 l1 v1 b1 r1
of main season 2020 Max t2 l2 v1 b2 r2
Midterm end of travel Min t2 l2 v1 b1 r1
season 2020 Max t3 l2 v1 b2 r2
Long-term start of main Min t2 l2 v1 b1 r1
season 2021 Max t3 l2 v2 b2 r2

flow of tourists to an affected destination’s tourism objects. budget for discretionary travel. The European Commission
The virus may become history but its long-term effects on (European Commission 2020b) announced to lift the corona-
economic systems can persist and cause the world other con- virus containment measures gradually, observing by each
cerns. This is the nature of any system. It does not remain step the development of new infections. Starting already by
isolated in its own domain but affects all other connected mid-June with allowing cross-border or continental travel-
systems. ing, a step-by-step withdrawal of travel restrictions (t2)
Considering the states of the five triggers, there exist 24 × opens some paths for the flow to resume. Along these paths
3 = 48 theoretical combinations of events that could occur tourism comes back, but at much lower levels as restrictions
and therefore are potential scenarios. Many of them are are gradually eased over time. Not all restrictions will be
inconsistent and not likely, such as the availability of a vac- eased in all places at the same time. It will be a staggered
cine but still maintaining national travel restrictions in highly reopening. Thanks to massive government bailouts (b2),
developed markets with partial lockdowns in place. Out of intermediaries can survive and thereby bridge the phase of
the consistent combinations, minimum and maximum flow lockdown and travel prohibitions.
scenarios along a timeline (short-term, midterm, and long- Intermediaries return to operating their businesses but
term) can be identified (see Table 2). suffer from much too high capacities not matching the lower
demand. Some destinations are still not accessible, with part
of their flow being redirected to other destinations, which
Short-Term Scenarios have the opportunity to boost their tourist arrivals, at least
First, the steady flow of money in the system will be reduced temporarily. Under these circumstances, domestic markets
or completely interrupted as the carriers of the flow (i.e., with a large source market volume and a high share of pre-
tourists) are prevented from traveling. People would like to crisis outbound traveling can recover quicker or even gain
travel but are not allowed because of the lockdown and the flow (exemplified by D1 and D3). In Europe, there are coun-
travel restrictions imposed to stop the spread of the virus. tries (e.g., Germany, Great Britain, Netherlands) in which
In the short-term minimum flow case (Figure 3A), this less than one-third of the holiday trips (4+ nights) had
status (t1) might go on until the middle of the year or even domestic destinations (Eurostat 2020) pre-COVID-19. These
longer in Europe. The fast-shrinking average travel budget countries are in a good position to gain domestic travel flow
caused by an upcoming strong recession (r1) reduces the should long haul international travel destinations open later
potential of people willing or able to travel. The immediate than domestic destinations or risk-averse travelers opt to stay
decrease of the flow to linking intermediaries leads to an closer to home. The short-term impact from the COVID-19
enormous share of unused capacities (e.g., intermediary I3 pandemic is clear: the system will shrink. There will be
might be a cruise-line not able to operate). In the short term objects in the system that are not able to survive. For exam-
and with one-time bailouts (b1), most intermediaries can sur- ple, some airlines will cease to exist. This has already hap-
vive but will need further support. The low flow to destina- pened, with Condor, flybe, or Virgin Australia declaring
tions as well as the lockdowns in situ leave their capacities bankruptcy (Slotnick 2020; Financial Times 2020), and it
unused. A short-term reduction of capacities in most destina- seems very likely that others will follow. Governments
tions is not possible unless bankruptcies reduce capacities. around the world are attempting to limit bankruptcies by
Capacities remain as they were before COVID-19 but in the pumping flow into the system through stimulus payments.
short term they go unused. However, it does not matter how much support is given to
Looking at the maximum flow in the short term (Figure 3B) businesses in the system if the carriers of the flow are fewer
lockdowns, partially, are over after a few weeks or months in number or carry with them less flow per person. Increasing
(Cooke 2020). Opened attractions give people a reason to unemployment, loss of savings, reduced money in long-term
travel. As the recession is mild (r2), most have the necessary investments, and diversion of funds for other purposes (e.g.,
474 Journal of Travel Research 60(3)

Figure 3. Short-term minimum and maximum scenarios.

medical) will all serve to reduce the flow of money into the programs in this scenario are only short-term remedies, inter-
tourism system. These interventions might help in the maxi- mediaries and destinations must adapt their capacities as
mum flow scenario to keep recession in the short term milder much as possible (symbolized through the downsizing of
than without the stimulus payments, but regardless the reces- diameters).
sion is real and has already arrived (Federal Reserve 2020). In the midterm maximum-flow scenario (Figure 4B),
In the minimum scenario, a double effect keeps the flow on most international travel is possible again (t3) and travelers’
an even lower level: unemployment and fear of unemploy- budgets are not as strongly affected (r2), leading to higher
ment prevent a higher share of people from traveling, and flows in the system and higher capacity utilization for the
those making trips will be forced to cut their budgets. This intermediaries and destinations. Support payments in this
again augers well for domestic destinations in the short term scenario are longer-lasting (b2) and intermediaries and desti-
even if long haul travel is possible. nations will not have to adapt their capacities as much as in
the minimum midterm scenario (Figure 4A).
There is some speculation, now being confirmed, that in
Midterm Scenarios the absence of a vaccine (v1) or effective treatments against
In the minimum scenario, the flow from the source markets COVID-19 domestic tourism will for a longer duration
is further diminished through recession (r1) and travel replace international tourism in the upcoming main season in
restrictions that only permit domestic holidays (t2), which Europe (t2) and the United States. However, the flow is
leads to bankruptcies of intermediaries (I3) and prolonged lower than before the pandemic (Minder 2020). Even in the
substantial vacancies in many destinations (D4 and D5). As original first COVID-19 infection hotspot, the province of
detailed in the short-term scenarios, other destinations (in Hubei, the reopening of tourist attractions under strict pre-
this scenario D1 to D3) meanwhile profit from a redistribu- caution measures could already be observed by the end of
tion effect, mostly through domestic travel. Since the bailout March (General Office of Hubei Provincial People’s
Bausch et al. 475

Figure 4. Midterm minimum and maximum scenarios.

Government 2020). Is it possible then for domestic tourism self-quarantine for two weeks upon arrival. Travelers willing
to replace the loss of international tourism as speculated to put up with the restrictions are at such a low level that
above? After all, if international tourists now become domes- even with greatly reduced capacities, the system is in no dan-
tic tourists while waiting for a solution to the pandemic, ger of being strained.
would not the system still function the same? The answer is Governments, which in addition to supporting the econ-
no, as in this case there will be objects of the tourism system omy (b2) may direct further support payments to individuals,
that are no longer in demand, such as big body airlines used will at some point have to deal with the consequences of their
for international travel. Also, some destinations that are actions. The almost unlimited printing of money to keep the
almost entirely dependent on international tourism will suf- world financial system awash with flow will eventually have
fer from an almost completely lost season. Any system that other deleterious effects, such as inflation or reduced flow to
relies on a constant flow for its overall well-being will suffer other parts of the system that can no longer be supported at
significantly from a prolonged closure. Even in the case (t3) the level they were before the pandemic. That is the nature of
in which some international long-haul destinations will be a system. A change in one part will affect changes in other
allowed to accept visitors again, the flow will not return to parts, and the foundational piece of all economic systems is
previous levels within a few weeks. People still remember the individual. Without consumer spending, our economic
the dramas of hundreds of thousands of travelers who had systems stagnate and lead to overall economic distress (r1 or
been stranded at places around the world waiting for a lift r2). The tourism system tells us that due to the pandemic the
back home and who after return were sent into quarantine for flow in the system has been greatly reduced and this will lead
two weeks (German Federal Foreign Office 2020). However, to change. That is certain. As described above, in the short
even during the height of the pandemic, international travel run those marginal and vulnerable parts of the system will
continued, including in most places the requirement to collapse. Expect more bankruptcies throughout the system.
476 Journal of Travel Research 60(3)

Figure 5. Long-term minimum and maximum scenarios.

For intermediary objects linking the source markets with the In the maximum flow scenario (Figure 5b), the virus
destinations (airlines, cruise lines, tour operators), there will nightmare has an end. An effective and broadly available
be fewer of them and they will be smaller in capacity when vaccine (v2) allows almost unlimited traveling after a short
some form of “normalcy” returns. The same applies at the time. The recession was milder, and first indicators show a
destination level for hotels, restaurants, and other objects in return to growth (r2). This leads to bigger and more affluent
the system. However, not all objects will be affected at the source markets, generating a growth in flow. The travel
same level. restrictions have been lifted (t3) and the intermediaries,
which could be saved by government support programs over
a longer time period (b2), have higher capacity utilization;
Long-Term Scenarios there only the demand changed, and capacities could be
In the minimum-flow scenario (Figure 5A), the source mar- adapted. Also, the destinations are not so troubled having
kets have shrunk further because of the recession that more demand due to the assumption that international travel
was strong and immediate (r1). Owing to stricter travel is allowed. The destinations that were able to adapt their
restrictions, the intermediaries are facing a worse situation capacities without excessive loss of businesses due to bank-
with less demand: the ones able to reduce capacities in the ruptcy become economically viable again (D1 to D4).
long run did, but some could not and therefore had to close Nevertheless, a few objects and destinations will have failed,
down (I3). This might be the case for some airlines, cruise needing a complete restart by new business partners.
lines, or tour operators. This scenario also shows a large An important question facing those who deal with the
impact on destinations, with some not being able to operate tourism system is what effects can we expect in the long run?
anymore (D5). This might be due to bankruptcy of the only Again, this question is clouded by concerns over how long the
airline serving this destination, or a failure of the main pandemic remains uncontrolled without effective treatment
attractions such as a casino or a leisure park. or eradication. The availability of a vaccine (v2) or the stop of
Bausch et al. 477

the virus by NPIs will be the most important switch, opening good changes intended to limit the spread of other infectious
all doors again. What is certain though is that the tourism sys- diseases, such as the seasonal flu. Or does everything return
tem will reconstitute itself as the world economic system to the way it used to be such as it did after the 1918 flu
recovers by turning the recession first from r1 to r2 before pandemic?
experiencing new steady global growth. Assuming this hap- A systems approach says that any study of the system
pens, and an examination of historical disruptions tells us it requires more than a treatment/outcome binary approach or
will, how will the system elements reconstitute itself? Will it what some call the mechanistic approach. Medical research
come back and look similar to what it was before the pan- has operated under this paradigm for a long time: if you have
demic or will a new tourism system emerge? Most likely, it a headache, take a pain reliever. Later it was discovered that
will look more like the system of today, albeit with some new some pain relievers may have damaging effects on other
policies embedded in it. These policies will change the behav- organs in the body, which is to be expected as a body is a
ior of tourists and lead to adaptation of strategies, processes biological system. Nothing happens in a vacuum. One reac-
and management practices by the tourism objects and open tion will lead to another reaction which will lead to further
the door for new players in the system. reactions. That is a systems approach. There will be multiple
Just as the tourism system rebounded after 9/11 with new outcomes from any one treatment. In economics, input–out-
security policies, including more restrictive visas, no-fly put tables reflect this approach. Increase final demand in one
watch lists, increased fees to cover new security services, bio sector in the input–output matrix and the model will tell you
passports, and other changes, the structural elements of the what happens to output in the other sectors. In a similar way,
tourism system remained intact and as the carriers (i.e., tour- computerized general equilibrium models essentially per-
ists) acquired more flow, the system once again reached pre- form the same analysis (Dwyer, Forsyth, and Spurr 2005).
9/11 levels and then greatly surpassed them (Aratuo et al. The scenario approach presented in this article is based on
2019). COVID-19 might add surveillance apps and immu- minimum- and maximum-flow scenarios using two comple-
nity certificates, but the system itself will primarily stay the mentary static tourism systems: tourism as a subsystem and
same. tourism as a system of tourist flows. The first system allows
It is not the intent of this discourse to suggest that every- one to identify the main triggers coming from external forces
thing will be the same as it was before. It will not. It will be that become manifest in the subordinate systems (Figure 1A)
different, but in what sense it will be different is not known consisting of tourism subjects (tourists and locals) and
except for some short-term effects that can be easily dis- objects (elements), which are formed by the tourism industry
cerned by examining economic history and its reactions to acting as intermediaries as well as at the destination level.
other exogenous disruptions to the system. But what will The second allows one to show the interruption of the flow of
remain the same is that the system structure that brought us tourists (tourism subjects) and money into the system of
pre–COVID-19 tourism will be essentially the same system intermediaries and destinations over time (Figure 1b). This
structure that is with us during and post COVID-19. Nothing approach leaves the tourism systems, as we know and use
that has happened so far, or is projected to happen, puts the them, untouched. Therefore, we can analyze the known pro-
system at risk. Rather, it simply diminishes elements of the cesses tourists pass through before, during, and after a trip
system and changes some of the structural elements of the (Shaw and Williams 2009; Yachin 2018) considering the
system. COVID-19 pandemic–caused changes in the subordinate
systems, and their options to travel, thereby creating the
System-Based COVID-19 Tourism money flow (see Figure 6, col. 1). COVID-19’s impact on
local communities as part of the tourism-subjects at a desti-
Research: An Impact Grid Approach nation level is another key topic to be analyzed (Figure 6,
This study has used the argument that the tourism system in col. 2). Concerning the intermediaries, questions that are
place resists change and will emerge as the system on which linked to the strategic and operational tasks of a tourism
future tourism will be built. Yet the COVID-19 pandemic industry are of interest (Figure 6, col. 2). The third main part
offers interesting research opportunities to see how the sys- in the flow model are the destinations with their organiza-
tem components adapt themselves or to enlarge the proposed tional issues as well as public and private resources (Beritelli,
static model by dynamic components and feedback loops. Bieger, and Laesser 2014; Sheehan et al. 2016). In the con-
For example, restaurants are opening back up with limited text of COVID-19, questions of leadership, governance, and
spacing, use app-based menus so paper menus do not have to destination management tasks concerning strategies, market
be reused, and have introduced other adaptions to limit the reactions, or the utilization of public and private resources
spread of infectious diseases. Do traditional practices such as are obviously relevant (Figure 6, col. 3).
handshakes in western civilizations go away to be replaced Furthermore, a system approach allows one to consider
by something with limited social contact already being prac- the interlinkages between system elements affected by
ticed in many Asian and Arab countries? These adaptions, changes in the subordinate framework. Putting the COVID-
even if SARS-CoV-2 were eradicated, would appear to be 19 triggers from the subordinate system into columns and the
478 Journal of Travel Research 60(3)

Figure 6. Structure of COVID-19 impact grid research fields.

flow-related process and management tasks of tourism sub- within the tourism system. In addition, a check of interde-
jects and tourism objects from Table 2 into rows, an impact pendencies between tourism subject and tourism object
grid is built (Figure 7). Single lines or blocks of associated aspects can be undertaken.
rows from the tourism system can be chosen to analyze the The pictured grid is a simplified proposal to show the
impact of one or several triggers to the selected research field structure of the approach and includes only an exemplary
Bausch et al. 479

Figure 7. COVID-19 tourism system research grid.

selection of tourism research fields (rows) and the five most of tourism research with a long tradition. There exist many
obvious triggers described in this study (columns), which destination choice models (Sirakaya and Woodside 2005)
can be allocated to the economic, political, and technological and comprehensive discussions about the core elements of
spheres of the system as shown in Figure 1A. As a matter of destination choice, the choice sets (Woodside and Lysonski
course, the crisis will also have societal, cultural, and eco- 1989; Decrop 2010). Further research analyzed the role of
logical effects. Thus, an enlargement of the grid by further pretravel information exposure about the destination and
columns covering these subordinate areas can be done, experience options (Oppewal, Huybers, and Crouch 2015).
bringing up more highly relevant fields of research. It is obvious that travel restrictions from the level l2 (no
To illustrate this approach, the question of COVID-19 international traveling) changes the existing choice sets of
impact on destination choice and destination image forma- travelers. Considered outbound destinations move to the
tion shall be discussed in detail. Destination choice is a field unavailable and inert set, and domestic destinations never
480 Journal of Travel Research 60(3)

having been considered before as a real option move from world. The initial response was to shut down international
the inert set to the consideration set. But travel restrictions tourism in stages. Tourism is by definition mobility, and the
themselves are not the only influence regarding destination virus needs mobility to spread. The medical course of action
choice. Because of low demand, airlines as intermediaries is to curtail mobility. Policy makers, by and large with some
might decide to no longer serve a destination, or a preferred exceptions, embraced this strategy making tourism the first
type of accommodation in the destination may not be avail- economic sector to be seriously affected by the COVID-19
able. A further reason for shifts between consideration, inert, pandemic and probably the last sector to emerge from under
inept, and unavailable sets can be the unavailability of the its shadow. In past recessions, the research community would
main attraction in a destination, which may still be closed to focus on other sectors of the economy to forecast when tour-
avoid crowding. The general decision process concerning ism may rebound. In this case, when tourism rebounds, other
traveling to an alternative destination or opting for a tempo- sectors of the economy will most likely have already been
ral shift, a delay until the preferred location opens back up, well on the way to recovery. The impact grid can guide the
are important topics related to destination choice research. type of objects that can and should be examined to see how
The impact grid can be used to select a starting point of tourism recovers when travel restrictions are eased, or more
research, for example, the impact of travel restrictions on generally, as subordinate systems are rearranged. Apart from
destination choice of tourists as tourism subjects, identifying simply analyzing the impact, the grid can also be helpful to
relevant literature from existing research but then also cross- identify, develop, and test interventions and strategies to
checking further potential impacts caused by disruptions of mitigate occurring issues or to discuss potential dynamic
relevant tourism objects from the intermediaries such as air- feedback effects within subsystems or sectors.
lines or from the destinations such as accommodation or
attractions.
A related type of research, destination image formation
Conclusions
(Gallarza, Saura, and Garcı́a 2002; Pike 2002), can also be We do not pretend to know what the future will look in all the
examined using this approach. For example, there are some fine details. To do so would require a close examination of
countries or regions in countries that have taken different elements in the tourism system that are affected by the flow
approaches to dealing with the transmission of SARS- of the system. To speculate without understanding the sys-
CoV-2. Sweden is one of those countries within the European tem is a form of a mechanistic approach to the problem. In
Union that have taken a less restrictive and more relaxed other words, if an airline is nearing bankruptcy then the
approach to mobility and social interaction. In the United mechanistic response is to provide support payments to keep
States, as this section is being written, states are opening up it solvent. Problem solved. Or is it? What if the tourists are
that still have increasing rates of infection and problematic not there to sustain the airlines operations into the future,
testing (CNN 2020), leading to greatly accelerating infec- especially if it faces increased competition from other carri-
tion rates and deaths. Assuming there is no magic bullet ers all vying for the short-term reduction in the flow of
(i.e., vaccine) available soon, what does this approach mean money through the system? Can the airline be supported
for the touristic image of these destinations? At the moment indefinitely, and should it be? These are questions that will
of this writing residents of the United States are prohibited be addressed by policy makers and businesses all over the
from traveling to many parts of the world. Does this ban, world with respect to many elements in the tourism system in
caused by the approach the United States has taken to com- the coming months.
bating the virus, affect how potential international travelers There will be a price to pay for propping up the economic
view the United States in terms of future destination? A lon- system in general, and eventually the carriers and receivers
gitudinal study that begins while uncertainty about the dif- of the flow, in our case tourists and locals, will have to carry
ferent societal approaches is high and continues through the that burden. Inflation bringing on rising prices, capacity
pandemic would provide a chance to study temporally the reductions, and new travel policies such as health screening
impact on objects in the system from a consumer preference before boarding are all real consequences that may occur as
viewpoint. a result of public and private reactions to the COVID-19 pan-
Additionally to analyzing the impact on a research field demic. The pressure from the tourism industry objects to
related to one flow model (see Figure 7), which is done by policy makers to grant endless subsidies and to support, at
going along one row of the grid, the system approach also least at the national level, a fast recovery of tourism by with-
allows one to start with one external driver – that is, reces- drawing travel restrictions on state territories is increasing
sion, and go along the respective column to analyze the daily. But looking into a tourism flow model, we can antici-
impact on the tourism subjects and objects. The recession pate what will happen. In countries with large source markets
facing the world economy in general and tourism specifi- and a high share of outbound tourism, this will lead to redi-
cally has one important difference from past recessions. This recting the flow from many international destinations to just
one starts with tourism. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was a few national destinations, at least temporarily. The result
carried out by tourists transporting it to all corners of the from opening up destinations without changes (e.g., social
Bausch et al. 481

distancing, testing) in terms of SARS-CoV-2 risks may be something often referred to as destination brand equity (a
enormous. These risks, following the logic of the model, are marketing economic approach to destination value) is really
not coming from accommodations or restaurants assuming no different than a form or measuring sustainable tourism
they take effective measures for distancing, and hygienic development (Gartner 2014). The presented grid easily can
cleaning can be implemented, albeit with a reduction in rev- be extended by columns representing the subordinate com-
enue. The tourism system approach shows us that the real ponent of the environment and the sociocultural elements
risks are coming from the attractions. The pull factors in with respect to sustainability goals. In this sense, the approach
tourism are the attractions, and without a strict visitor flow presented in this article offers the possibility to take a more
management policy limiting and distancing visitors we will holistic perspective.
see, very soon, the well-known effects of overtourism again, The system approach allows researchers to focus on gen-
but this time paired with uncontrollable contagion risks. The eral system-relevant issues. In the flow system model, first
wild card in all of this is the comfort level and risk accep- we have on the left the source markets and consumers. Of
tance level of tourists. Tourists, in the absence of a vaccine or general relevance, there is the research field of behavioral
effective treatment, will ultimately determine when destina- changes during the pandemic as well as in the long term
tions recover from the virus instigated shutdown. Their risk because of permanent adaptation of new social norms. Before
acceptance, image of precautions taken by tourism objects, the crisis, we observed in northern Europe the first signals of
amount of disposable income, and other virus-related conse- a flight shame debate and a change of social norms by the
quences will ultimately determine when the tourism system Fridays for Future movement (Gössling, Humpe, and Bausch
begins to fill up with flow once again. The system approach 2020). Further research of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis
presented in this article can be used to study one or all of the on social norms seems to be important for a better under-
impacts occurring not only as a single event but as a series of standing of long-term travel behavior changes. In the midst
interrelated connected events as tourists think about and of the model, the above-described general problem of over-
begin to return to their travels. capacities and reallocation of resources but also global dis-
However, there still exists a major problem with the flow parities of state aids or other political interventions is a key
models as presented. It only applies to the economic sphere issue. The capacity utilization rate is linked to the flow of
and can only measure output in terms of monetary return or tourists and the availability of destinations and their attrac-
loss. So, what if an environment is completely destroyed as tions. The dependencies there are highly complex and
long as there is a positive return to all economic sectors? This dynamic, as many tourism products are substitutable and
would show up as a beneficial impact in the system model marginal changes of the safety situation of transportation or
used today. Unless an environment can also be monetized, at destinations can cause significant shifts. The ex-ante eval-
then it has no chance of being considered as an output of uation of safety measures including mobility restrictions
increased production. That is why the Natural Capital Project could be an important contribution of tourism researchers.
(2020) is such an important advance leading to a systems Were some methods more likely to ameliorate or shorten the
approach for development. It introduces the environment as economic fallout are relevant questions to guide future pol-
a subordinate system element framing the embedded tourism icy decisions. Looking at the right side of the system model,
system. And in the process, it structurally changes the sys- the most crucial challenge for destinations is visitor flow
tem. Now flow impacts can be measured in monetary terms management. The pull factors of tourism, the attractions,
for more than simply the economic sphere. It puts the envi- need new solutions to balance the wish of tourists to visit
ronment on the same footing as the economy. The consider- outstanding attractions and to have unique experiences with
ation of culture and societies is also needed as an addition to the need to avoid crowding and to keep distancing. The
the system model and could be an important field of future attractions themselves are not the only bottleneck. The pub-
research. lic transportation system used to access attractions is just as
The rapid recovery discussion that popped up among the much an issue, if not more, when it comes to social distanc-
research community was astonishing unilaterally focused on ing as the attractions themselves. So far, the analysis of
how to come back to what was before COVID-19. A critical complex visitor flow systems in combination with the devel-
reflection that suggests that the development goals of desti- opment of instruments to manage the flows within capacity
nations and intermediaries in tourism might be in the long limits has not been a concern of tourism research judging by
term of a destructive nature, is missing. The COVID-19 the discussions on tourism research discussion platforms.
crisis offers the opportunity in the sense of a full reset, to The COVID-19 pandemic creates a need for new services
redefine the long-term goals, related strategies, and their for tourists covering their wishes for safety without compro-
implementation. While on the practical side of tourism mising their travel experiences. Along all connections in the
management the crisis tests the resilience of business mod- tourism system, the digitalization of processes, aligned with
els by default, for tourism research it brings along the chal- business models, is needed to support the responses of tour-
lenge of putting the validity of established models to the test. ism business. Some of the many areas for digital solutions
For example, it allows researchers to examine whether needing accompanying research are new types of realtime
482 Journal of Travel Research 60(3)

information about safety, on-site medical services or hygienic flow to components in the tourism system occurs researchers
regulations, additional guidance during the booking proce- can examine the effects of those attempts. The key here is not
dure covering personal risk profiles, autonomous vehicle– to simply examine one effect, one outcome, but to embed the
based mobility offers guaranteeing exclusive safe spaces, or research into a system analysis to get a much better picture of
virtual and augmented experiences supporting individual on- what happens and to whom. However, this may be a once in
site activities without groups or tour guides. In addition, a lifetime opportunity for tourism research to help create a
research can address new framing policies, further digital more balanced tourism system by providing new develop-
technologies, or societal reactions suitable to supporting the ment paradigms. If researchers and editors do not accept that
digital transformation of tourism during the disruptive phases tourism is a system with more than a binary effect when one
of the pandemic. How many and what type of these digital element of the system changes, then we will have a tsunami
solutions will be adopted and used post pandemic is a rele- of research papers. If on the other hand there is recognition
vant research question. of the system as pervasive and responsive in all spheres of
When analyzing the literature discussing disruptions in tourism subjects and related objects, even extending into
tourism, we became aware that all approaches were either other human systems (e.g., poverty), then the virus will not
discussing disruptions in fully functional and growing mar- have been a useless plague on humanity. It will teach us how
kets or looking at short-term local or regional effects. to structurally change the system to make it more responsive
Previous social disruption research in tourism was based to societal desires.
primarily on regions economically dependent on tourism
and were related to the issue of overtourism. The global Acknowledgments
tourism crisis being experienced now reveals a new issue The authors would like to thank Verena Tauber and Valentina
needing attention: social disruptions caused by fast decline Pizzuto, members of the Competence Centre Tourism and Mobility
and slow recovery. This is directly linked to the question of of Free University of Bolzano for their useful remarks on the draft
tourism-related resources provided by public authorities version and the preparation of the figures.
and contributing to tourism services, as well as to quality of
life of local residents. Balancing the need for savings in the Declaration of Conflicting Interests
public budgets and the availability of public services that The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect
are part of the competitiveness of destinations and the con- to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
tentment of residents will be a major task. Here a research
field dealing with a new holistic understanding of regional Funding
governance considering social disruption within the tour- The author(s) received no financial support for the research, author-
ism system as only one part of the total system seems of ship, and/or publication of this article.
major interest.
These are not the only examples of using a system ORCID iDs
approach to studying real-world phenomena. But they do Thomas Bausch https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2800-5375
provide examples of how research can be conducted utilizing Florian Ortanderl https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9067-7116
a system approach. It is those types of research approaches to
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