LESSONFI

VE

FERTI
LIT
4.
1Int
roduct i
on.
Fert
il
it
yindicatestheact ualnoofchildr
enbor nali
veoritrefer
stot hereproduct
ive
perf
ormancer atherthanpossibl
eperformance.Thetermfecundi
tyisusedt oindi
cate
thephysi
ologicalabi
l
itytobearchi
ldr
en.Itsopposi
teisst
eri
l
ity(
unproduct
iveness)

Li
vebi
rt
h

Li
v ebirthisthecompl et
eexpulsionorext r
actionfrom i
tsmotherofapr oductof
conception i
rr
espect
iveoft hedur at
ion ofpregnancywhich af
tersuch separat
ion,
breathesorshowsomeev idenceoflif
e
.
Sti
llbir
th:

St
il
lbi
rthsi
softenemployedassynony
mouswi
thl
atef
etaldeat
hsayaf
etaldeat
h of
20or28completeweeksofgest
ati
onormor
e
Mater
nalMort
ali
tyrat
e

I
trepr
esent
sappr
oxi
mat
elyt
her
iskofdy
ingasar
esul
tofcompl
i
cat
ionsofchi
l
dbi
rt
hor
pr
egnancy

eDp=deat
Wher hsduetochi
ldbi
rt
handcompl
i
cat
ionsofpr
egnancy
B=Liv
eBi r
ths
4.
2.1.
2 Det
erminantsoff
ert
il
it
y.

1.Mar i
talstatus.
2.Ageatf irstmar riage.
3.Educat ion.
4.Pl aceofr esidenceRur alorUrban
5.Economi cst atus
6.Rel i
gion-catholicandmusl imfactors.
7.Accesst oFami lyPlanni ngservices.
8.Br eastfeeding.-i
)Sul kingf acil
it
atesthereleaseofoxytocinwhichhelpsthe
contractionoft heut erusr educi
ngt heprobabil
it
iesofov ul
ati
on.
i
i)Insomesoci eti
esi tisat aboot oengagei nsexwhenbr eastf
eedingthusincr
easi
ng
theint
ervalsbet weenbi rt
hs
4.1Lessonlear ningout comes.

Byt
heendoft
hel
esson,
youshoul
dbeabl
eto;
 2.
1.1 Def
inef
ert
il
it
y,st
atedi
ff
erentmeasur
esusedt
omeasur
eitandpr
obl
emsof
i
tsmeasur
ement.

2.
1.2 Measur
etheav
eragesi
zeoft
hef
ami
l
y.

2.
1.3 Appl
ythesemeasur
etor
eal
dat
aandi
nter
prett
her
esul
t.

1.
2.1 FERTI
LITY

2.
1.3.
1 Basi
cmeasur
esoff
ert
il
it
y.

1)CRUDEBI RTHRATE
I
tisthesi
mplestmeasur
eoffer
til
i
tyrequi
ri
ngonlytot
albi
rt
hsandt
otalpopul
ati
on.
It
measur
esthenumberofbi
rt
hsper1000personsi
nthepopul
ati
on

where
B=numberofbir
thint
imeper
iod
P=sizeofpopul
ati
onint
heti
meper
iod

2)GENERALFERTI
LITYRATE
Thi
sisasteptowar
dsrest
ri
cti
ngt
hedenomi
nat
ort
ocor
rectpopul
ati
onexposedt
ori
sk
ofhavi
ngababy.

3) AGESPECI
FICFERTI
LITYRATE

I
fi naddit
iontot hefemalepopulati
onbyage,bi rthsar eavail
ableaccordi
ngtotheage
ofmot her,t
henaschedul eofagespeci fi
cfert
il
it
yr atesmaybeobt ai
nedbydiv
idi
ngthe
numberofbi rthstothemot hersofeachage( agegr oup)byt henumberoffemalesof
thatage.
NumberofBi rt
hstofemal esofagegr oup( x,
x+dx)
ASFR=---
---
--
---
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
---
--
---
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
---
---
--
---
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
Totalnumberoff emalesofagegr oup( x,
x+dx)atthemi ddl
eoftheyear

4)STANDARDI
ZED BI
RTH RATES
Itispossibletocompar et he fert
il
ityrat
esoft wopopul ati
onbycal culat
ingf oreach
populati
ont hebi rt
hrat ef oreachsexbyageandcompar i
ngt hecor respondingrates
.Howev erwhent hestructur eofthet wopopul ati
oni sdiff
erentthecompar isonofsuch
populati
onsmaynotbeappr opri
ate.Wet hereforechooseast andardpopul ati
onand
subjectitt ot he birt
hr ates oft hese two popul ation,compar isons oft hese two
populati
onmayt henbedone.
Thust hestandardizedbi r
thr at
emaybedef i
nedast heov eral
lbirt
hr at
et hatwoul dhave
prevail
edinast andardpopul ati
onifithadexper iencedateachaget hebirthratesofthe
populati
onbei ngst udied.Ther eisnouni quelycor rectstandardpopul ati
onandeach
i
nv est
igat
ori sf reetousehi sjudgmenti nchoosi ngaappr opr
iatest andard.Wewi l
l
studymor eofst andardizedr at
esint henexttopicofMor tali
ty.

5) TOTALFERTI LITY RATE:

Itisobt ainedbyaddi ngt heagespeci f
icfer t
il
ityr at
esf orwomenofeachage. When5-
yearagegr oupsar eempl oyed,thet otalmustbemul tipli
edby5, sinceiti
st hesum of
ther atesatev eryindi vidualagewhi chi srequi r
ed.
Thuswedef i
net het ot al f
ert
ili
tyrateas
“itr epr esentst henumberofchi ldrent hatwoul dbebor n(i
gnor i
ngmor tali
ty)toa
hypot heticalgr oupof1000womenast heypasst hrought her eproduct
iveagesand
exper i
encet hepar ti
cul aragespeci f
icbi r
thr ateonwhi cht heindexisbased”
Althought het otalf er t
ili
tyrater epresentst hesamef emal epopulation15-49asdoes
thegener alfertil
i
tyr atei tisani mprov ementont helatterrateasi teli
minatesvariat
ions
duet odi fferencesi nt heagedi stri
butionbet ween15- 49.I
tisal soregardedast he
standar dizedf erti
li
tyr atewher et hest andar dizedpopul ati
onhast hesamenumberof
womeni neachagegr oup.I tisalsocal l
edt heTot alperiodf er
ti
li
tyrate.
TPFR=sum oft hesingl ey earagespeci fi
cfer t
il
ityr at
es
=numberofchi ldrenpr oducedbyahy pothet i
calcohor tofwomenexper iencingthe
givenagespeci fi
cf ertilit
yrates

6)GROSSREPRODUCTI
VERATE

Itissimpl ythesum oft heagespecificferti

l
ityr
atesf orfemalesbirt
hsonlyfr
om the
age,15- 49,r
epresentst
heav er
agenumberofdaught erswhi chi
gnori
ngmor t
ali
tywil
l
takepl aceoft hei
rmot hers,assumingt hattherat esoft hecurrectyearconti
nue
i
ndefinitel
y.
Itisameasur eoft heav er
agenumberofdaught erspr oducedbywomendur ingthei
r
compl eteli
feti
me.
TheGRRi susual l
yexpr
essedast herateperwomenr atherthanarat
eper1000women.
Sy
mbol
i
cal
l
y

wheref
xi st
heferti
l
ityr
ateatagexspeci f
icforsex(i
.efemalesbir
thtofemalesormal
e
bir
thst
omal es)andsummat ionisoveral
lageinthereproduct
ivel
ifespan.
Sometimesanappr oxi
mationt otheGRRi sobtai
nedfrom TFRbymul t
ipl
yi
ngitbyt
he
rat
iooffemalesbir
thtothetotalbi
rt
hs.

7)NET REPRODUCTIVERATE(NRR)
Theomi ssi
onofmortal
i
tyinthecalcul
ati
onoftheGRRproduceoverest
imati
onof
repr
oducti
vi
ty.
Afemal
ebornwi l
lonl
yrepl
acehermot
herpr
ovidedshel
iv
estotheage

hermot herwas,t hedayshewasbor n.So( NRR)isobt ai

nedbymul ti
plyi
ngtheage
specifi
cf ert
il
it
yr ate(femaleonly
)atagi venagebyt hechanceofaf emalechi l
d
survivi
ngf r
om bi r
thtot heagegroupofhermot herandsummi ngf oral
lagesoft he
mot her.
Sy mboli
cally
wher ef
xi stheferti
li
tyrateatagexspecif
icforsex,lx 2i
+1/ stheprobabil
it
yofsurviv
ing
from bir
thtoagex+1/ 2andthesummat i
onisoverallagesi nther
eproducti
veli
fespan.
Incaseof5y earscohort

Thepopul at i
onwi l
lincrease,wi l
lremainst ati
oner yordecr easeaccor dingtowhet her
thenetr epr oducti
ver ateexceedsequal orislesst hanuni ty
.
Neithert heGRRnort heNRRal lowsf orv ari
at i
onsi nmar ri
agepat t
erns.Ifmar r
iage
patternsar eabnor malt hent heNRRandGRRgi vesmi sleadingresult
s. i
.eaft
erwar ,a
suddeni ncr easeofmar ri
agewi l
lfol
low,becauseoft hehi ghferti
li
tyinearl
ymar r
iage,by
i
ncreasedbi r
thandconsequent lyar eproductionr at
ecal culatedfrom theagespeci fi
c
fert
ili
tyr atesobt ainedwoul dov erst
ater eproduct i
vit
ybecausei tassumest hatt he
abnor mal l
yhi ghfert
il
ityrateswill
cont i
nueforev er.
4.2.
3.1 Appli
cationoff er
ti
li
tymeasur esonr ealdata.
Exampl
e4.
1

Age No of Noof Agespecific No of Female Total l

x
Group women bi
rt
hs Fer
ti
le r
ate female ASFR sing /
l0
% bir
ths year
ASFR
A B B/Ax1000=C T Sing E E/
Ax1000=F Fx5=G H
year
=
Cx5
15-
19 200 20 100 500 9 45 225 .
95

20-
24 300 80 267 1335 35 125 625 .
87

25-
28 300 100 330 1650 45 150 750 .
85

30-
35 400 80 200 2000 35 87 870 .
83

40-
49 400 20 50 500 9 23 230 .
8
1600 300 5985%o 133 2690%o

Lett
heTot
alpopul
ati
on=6000

Agespecif
icfer
ti
li
tyrates.
Tot
alper
iodfert
il
it
yrate=5985%
GRR=Sum ofthefemal esingl
eyearAgespeci
fi
cfer
ti
li
tyr
ate=2690%o 0rappr
ox.
.3
gi
rl
sperwoman.

l
x/l
o =pr
obabi
l
ityofdaught
ersur
viv
ingf
rom bi
rt
htot
heageoft
hei
rmot
her
.
Example4.
2
Givent
hedatabel
ow;
Agegr
oup Femal
e Li
vebi
rt
hs Pr
obabi
l
ityofsur
viv
ingf
rom
Popul
ati
on bi
rt
h.

15-
19 244,
000 4,
474 0.
85

20-
24 225,
800 28,
013 0.
80

25-
29 194,
200 36,
440 0.
70

30-
34 182,
300 27,
402 0.
65

35-
39 181,
400 14,
044 0.
60

40-
44 177,
600 3,
176 0.
50

45-
49 151,
100 182 0.
45

Cal
cul
ateandi
nter
pret
;

(
i) Cr
udebi
rt
hrat
egi
vent
het
otal
popul
ati
oni
s30,
000,
000.

(
ii
) Gener
alf
ert
il
it
yrat
e.

(
ii
i) Agespeci
fi
cfer
ti
li
tyr
ate.

(
iv) Tot
alf
ert
il
it
yrat
e.

(
v) Gr
ossr
epr
oduct
ionr
ate.

(
vi) Netr
epr
oduct
iver
ate.

Sol
uti
on.

a)

Age Number Number Number Probabil

i
ty Survi
vor
sof
Gr
oup of of of the
women of daught
ers Age Age daughters
‘
000’ bi
rt
hs. speci
fi
c speci
fi
c Female
bir
th female survi
vi
ng bi r
ths
rat
es bir
th fr
om birt
h
rat
es

15-
19 16.
0 260 127 16.
25 7.
9 0.
85 6.
7

20-
24 16.
4 2244 1093 136.
83 66.
64 0.
80 53.
3

25-
29 15.
8 1894 922 119.
87 58.
35 0.
70 40.
9
 30-
34 15.
2 1320 643 86.
84 42.
3 0.
65 27.
5

35-
39 14.
8 916 446 61.
89 31.
18 0.
60 18.
7

40-
44 15.
0 280 136 18.
66 9.
06 0.
50 4.
5

45-
49 14.
5 145 71 10 4.
90 0.
45 2.
2

Tot
al 107.
7 7059 3438 450.
34 220.
33 153.
8

Cal
cul
ateandi
nter
prett
hev
alueof
;

i
) Gener
alf
ert
il
it
yrat
e=(
7059/
10700)
x1000=65.
5

i
i
) Tot
alf
ert
il
it
yrat
e=0.
450x5=2.
25Av
erageoft
wochi
l
drenperwoman.

i
i
i) Gr
ossr
epr
oduct
ionr
ate=0.
220x5=1.
1Av
erageofonedaught
erperwoman.

i
v) Netr
epr
oduct
ionr
ate.
=5x0.
153=0.
763<1popul
ati
ondecr
eases.

4.
1.1.
1 PROBLEMSOFFERTI
LITYMEASUREMENT.

1.Bir
thr atenor mallyref
erstobirthsov erapar
ti
culart
imeper
iod.
2.Bir
thi nvolvestwopar ents.
3.Multiplebirths.
4.Polygamy
5.Popul ati
oni nvol
vessteri
lepar ents.
6.Fert
ili
tyi snotar andom problem itcanbedeferr
ed.Famil
yplanni
ngmet hods.
7.Denomi nati
onoft hebirt
hr at
e–Di f
ficul
ttomeasure–Populat
ionatr
isk–v er
y
young( howy oungorv er
yol d( howol d)

4.
1.1.
2 PARI
TYPROGRESSI
ONRATI
OS

PARITY:
Defini
ti
on.
I
tref
erst
othenumberofchi
ldr
enprevi
ousl
ybor
nali
vetoawoman.Zeropar
it
y
arethosewomenwhoneverhadachil
d,onepar
it
ywomenaret
hosewhohaveonl
yone
chil
detc
PARI
TYPROGRESSI
ONRATI
O:(
PPR)

I
sapr opor
ti
onofwomenofagi
venpar
it
y(xchi
l
dren)who adv
ancet
othenext
par
it
y(x+1chil
dren)

Exampl e
Showt hattheav er
agef
ami
l
ysi
zecanbeexpr
essedas
=a0+a0a1+a0a1a2+…..
where

Par
it
yPr
ogr
esi
veRat
io

Sol
uti
on.

Andsoon.

Thus
Averagef amilysize
=a0+a0a1+a0a1a2+….

4.
2.3.
2 Appl
i
cat
ionoft
hemeasur
eoft
heav
eragesi
zeoft
hef
ami
l
ytor
eal
dat
a.

Gi
venbel
owi
sthedat
aofFr
anceandPar
it
ypr
ogr
essi
onr
ati
osofNor
wayi
n1963.

A PPR
Par
it
yx No of (Norway )
women i
. Calcul
ate t he par
it
y progr
essi
on
With r
ati
osofFranceandt
heav er
agesi
zeofa
X f
amilyinFr
ance.
chi
ldr
en
0 192509 0. 93 i
i.Compar
eit
sfami
l
ysi
zewi
tht
hatof
1 279338 0. 91 Nor
way.
2 255318 0. 87
3 157082 0. 85
4 85245 0.96
5 48617 0.73
6 30794 0.73
7 18746 0.71
8 12145 0.62
9 20500
1 A B PRR Product PPR Product
Par
it No of No wit
h = ofpar i
ty(Nor
way
) of
yx women at l
east1chil
dr Y/ X progres pr
ogressi
With en sion onrati
os.
X rati
os.
chi
ldren
0 192509 1094299=X 0.
82 0.
824 0.
93 0.
93 0.
93
4
1 279338 901785=Y 0.
69 0.
569 0.
91 0.
91x0.
9 0.
85
0 3
2 255318 622447 0.
59 0.
335 0.
87 0.
87x0.
8 0.
72
0 5
3 157082 367129 0.
58 0.
197 0.
85 0.
85x0.
7 0.
61
8 2
4 85245 216047 0.
60 0.
119 0.
96 0.
96x0.
6 0.
59
5 1
5 48617 130802 0.
62 0.
0748 0.
73 0.
73x0.
5 0.
42
8 9
6 30794 82185 0.
62 0.
047 0.
73 0.
73x0.
4 0.
31
5 2
7 18746 51391 0.
63 0.
030 0.
71 0.
71x0.
3 0.
22
5 1
8 12145 32645 0.
62 0.
018 0.
62 0.
62x0.
2 0.
14
8 2
9 20500 20500
Tot
al 2.
21 4.
79

Knowi ngthatforaFr enchwomana0=0. 824indicatesthatof1000women824hadhad

atleast1chi l
d176nev erhadachi l
d.4
a1=0.690 indi
cates t hatamong t he 824 women who had atl east1 chi
l
d 824 x
0.690=569hadatl east2chi l
dren255hadexact l
y1chi l
d
Av er
agesizeoft hef ami l
y=a0+a0x
a1+a0xa1xa2+…
Av er
agef amilysizei nFrance=2childr
enperf amily
Av er
agesizeoff ami l
yi nNorway=5chi ldrenperf amil
y.

E-
ti
vi
ty4.
2.3–Appl
i
cat
ionofMeasur
esoff
ert
il
it
yandav
eragef
ami
l
ysi
zet
oreal
dat
a.

Number
ing,
paci
ngandsequenci
ng 4.
2.3

Ti
tl
e Appl
icati
on of Measur es of ferti
l
ity and
aver
agefamil
ysi zetoreal
data
Pur
pose Toenabley out omeasur eandi nter
pretthe
measuresoff ert
ili
tyand theaveragef amil
y
si
zeinthepopulati
on.
Br
iefsummar
yofov
eral
ltask Watchthesevi
deos;
htt
ps:
//www.youtube.com/watch?
v=GYgt EA4i
v
0g
htt
ps:
//www.youtube.com/watch?
v=UUGPL1e
 0sr
g

Spar
k

Newt
estmeasur
esmen’
sfer
ti
li
ty.
I
ndi
vi
dual
task No.of Noofbi
rt
hs Mor t
women ali
ty
rates
Age of
femal
e
births
15-
19 52013 1884 0.12
20-
24 54307 6371 0.18
25-
29 46990 5362 0.15
30-
34 40211 2901 0.20
35-
39 30401 1170 0.22
40-
44 23496 268 0.23

Cal
cul
atef
orEngl
andandWal
es.
i
) Gener
alFer
ti
li
typer1000womenaged
15-
44.

i
i
) Age specif
icfert
il
it
yr at
e per1000
women.
i
i
i) Tot
alfer
til
it
yrat
eperwoman.
i
v) Est
imatetheGrossrepr
oduct
iver
ate

v
) Netr
epr
oduct
iver
ate.

I
nter
pretandcommentf
oreachoft
hem.
I
nter
act
ionbegi
ns  Posty ouranswer sont hedi scussi
on
for
um 4. 2.3
 Readwhaty ourcol l
eagueshav eposted.
 I nasent enceort wo, commentonwhat
twoofy ourcol l
eagueshav eposted
keepingnet iquettei nmind
E-
moder
atori
nter
vent
ions  Focussi nggr oupdi scussion
 Encour agingl urkers(quietones)to
contribute
 Pr ovidingf eedback/t eachingpoints
 Summar i
singkeypoi nts
 Cl osingt hedi scussion
Schedul
eandt
ime Thi
sactiv
ityshoul dtaket wohour s.
Next Mor
tal
i
ty.

4.
3 AssessmentQuest
ions.
1.a)Howdoesbr
east
feedi
ngr
educef
ert
il
it
y?

b)Bel
ow y
ouhav
ebeengi
vent
heagespeci
fi
cfer
ti
li
tyr
atesofKeny
aandTobago.

Age agespeci
fi
cfer
ti
li
tyr
ate Keny
a(1975)

Tr
ini
dad&Tobago(1971)
15–19 81 168
20–24 212 342
25–29 196 357
30–34 129 293
35–39 86 239
40–44 28 145
45–49 5 59

(
i) Calculat
ethetotal
fert
il
it
yratesinbot hcount
ri
es,I
nter
prett
heanswer.
(
ii
) Esti
mat etheGrossrepr
oductiveratesandstatewhatext
rainf
ormat
ionyouneed
tocalcul
atetheNetreproducti
onr ate.

2.Gi
venbelowist
hedi
str
ibut
ionoft
hecompl
etedf
ami
l
ysi
zef
orwomeni
n
Kenya.

NumberofChi
l
dren(
x) Numberofwomenwi
th Chil
dren
x Year2008
Year2013
0 2302 2322
1 1213 1165
2 1041 1224
3 820 1056
4 738 811
5 566 566
6 450 481
7 328 296
8 262 236
9 148 144
10+ 205 156

Calculatethecompl etedfamil
ysizeintheper iodsint
ermsoftheparit
yprogr
essi
on
rat
ios.Commentont hetrend?
1.i )Descr i
behowy oumi ghtl
inkinformationonst ar
ti
ng,
spacingandstoppi
ngbear
ing
childrentounderstandthei
rrelat
iveinf
luenceoncompl et
edf er
ti
li
tyl
evel
sina
soci et
y.SupportyouranswerusingKeny andata.

i
i
)Discussthemer
itsofmeasur
ingf
ert
il
it
ybyr
etr
ospect
ivesur
vey
sasopposedt
o
l
ongi
tudinal
sur
vey
s.
4.
4 Ref
erences.

1.Hinde,A( 1998)Demogr aphicmethods.Ar nol

d,London.I SBN-13:9780340718926
2.Newel l
,C.(1988).MethodsandModel sinDemogr aphy.London: Belhaven.I
SBN-
13:9780898624519.
3.Preston,S.H.,Heuvel
i
ne, P.andGuil
lot,M.(2001).Demogr aphy:Measur i
ngand
Model l
ingPopulati
onProcesses.Oxf or
d: Bl
ackwell.I
SBN- 13:
9781557869512.
4.Rowland, D.(2003)Demogr aphi
cmet hodsandConcept s.Oxford:OUP.ISBN-13:
0340718927