TOPIC 13

Relative frequency and

probability
13.1 Overview
13.1.1 Introduction
Being able to calculate the probability of an event allows us to determine how likely it is to occur.
Probabilities are used in weather forecasting, in calculating the price of insurance premiums and in
­
­determining the likelihood of winning games. It pays to know your probability!

LEARNING SEQUENCE
13.1 Overview
13.2 Theoretical probability
13.3 Multi-stage experiments
13.4 Experimental probability
13.5 Review

CONTENT
Students:
• review, understand and use the language associated with theoretical probability and relative frequency ◊
• determine the probabilities associated with simple games and experiments (ACMEM157) ◊
• use arrays and tree diagrams to determine the outcomes and probabilities for multi-stage experiments
(ACMEM156) AAM
• solve problems involving simulations or trials of experiments in a variety of contexts AAM ◊
• solve problems involving probability and/or relative frequency in a variety of contexts AAM

13.2 Theoretical probability

13.2.1 The probability scale
Probability is a measure of the likely occurrence of an event.
•• The probability of an event occurring is measured with a scale ranging from and including 0
(­impossible event) to 1 (certain event).
Highly Unlikely Even Likely Highly
unlikely chance Likely

Impossible Very Less than Better than Very Certain

unlikely even chance even chance likely

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

•• A probability can be written as a decimal number or as a fraction in simplest form.

•• The probability of an event (A) occurring can be denoted by P(A).
•• This means that 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1, with P(A) = 0 if A is an impossibility and P(A) = 1 if A is a certainty.

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 13.2.2 Sample spaces
•• An outcome is a particular result of an experiment.
•• A sample space is a list of all possible outcomes.
•• If an outcome appears more than once, it is counted only once and written
once in the sample space.
•• A sample space is often listed as a set of values. For example, the sample
space for the shown is {red, blue, green, yellow}; the s­ ample space includes
all of the colours on the spinner.

WORKED EXAMPLE 1

For each of the following experiments, list the sample space to show the total possible outcomes.
a A coin is flipped.
b An arrow is shot at a target where there is a blue area, a white area, a red area and a
black area.
c A circular spinner with seven sectors that are labelled 1 to 7 is spun.
THINK WRITE

a A coin has two sides: Head and Tail. List each When a coin is flipped, the two possible
possible outcome. outcomes are Head and Tail.
b There are four possible areas that the arrow could When an arrow is shot at the target, the four
hit on the target: blue, white, red and black. List possible outcomes are blue, white, red and
each possible outcome. black.
c There are seven different sectors on the spinner so When the circular spinner is spun, the seven
there are seven possible outcomes. List each possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7.
possible outcome.

13.2.3 Calculating theoretical probability

•• A favourable outcome is an outcome that you want or are looking for.
•• The theoretical probability of an event can be calculated using the following probability formula.
number of favourable outcomes
P(event) =
total number of outcomes
•• Equally likely outcomes have the same chance of occurring.
3
For the spinner at right, P(blue) = because there are three favourable outcomes (blue sectors) out
8
of eight possible outcomes (total number of equal sectors on the spinner).
For the spinner shown at right:
–– yellow and green are equally likely outcomes as they both occupy two of the
2 1
eight sectors on the spinner. P(yellow) = P(green) = or .
8 4
–– red is the least likely outcome as it occupies only one of the eight sectors
1
on the spinner. P(red) = . Red has the smallest value for its theoretical
8
­probability.

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 WORKED EXAMPLE 2

A standard six-sided die is rolled.

What is the probability of rolling:
a a3
b an odd number?

THINK WRITE
a 1 The number 3 occurs once on a die. Number of favourable outcomes = 1

2 The possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Number of outcomes = 6

and 6.
number of favourable outcomes
P(3) =
3 Calculate the probability of rolling a 3. total number of outcomes
1
=
6

b 1 The odd numbers are 1, 3 and 5. There Number of favourable outcomes = 3

are six numbers on a die. Number of outcomes = 6
2 Calculate the probability of rolling an number of favourable outcomes
P(odd number) =
odd number. Write the fraction in total number of outcomes
­simplest form 3
=
6
The probability of rolling an odd number is 1.
2

13.2.4 The complement of an event

•• The complement of an event is the probability that the event discussed will not happen. For example,
if the probability that it will rain today is 70%, then the complement of this is the probability that it
will not rain today. The other way to interpret the complement is recognising it as the opposite of the
event.
•• If the probability of an event is denoted by P(R), then the probability of the complement is denoted
by P(R′).
•• In order to calculate P(R′) it is necessary to understand that the sum of the probability of an event and
its complement is equal to 1.
P(R) + P(R′) = 1
This equation can be manipulated so it is expressed in terms of the complement:
P(R′) = 1 − P(R)
•• For example, if the probability of rain today is 0.7, then:
P(R) = 1− 0.7
= 0.3
This means there is a 30% chance that it will not rain.

WORKED EXAMPLE 3

If you randomly choose one number from the set L = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7}, what is the probability
of not picking an even number?

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 THINK WRITE
3
1 There are 3 even numbers (2, 4 and 6) out of P(even) =
7
7 possible outcomes.
2 Use the formula to find the complement. P(not even) = 1 − P(even)
3
=1−
7
4
=
7

RESOURCES

Interactivity: Probability scale (int-3824)

Interactivity: Samples spaces and theoretical probability (int-3826)
Interactivity: Theoretical probability (int-6081)

Exercise 13.2 Theoretical probability

Knowledge and understanding
1. Match the words below with one of the numbers between 0 and 1 that are given. Choose the number
depending on what sort of chance the word indicates, between impossible and certain. You may use a
number more than once. If you are unsure, discuss your choice with a classmate. The numbers to
choose from are 1, 0.75, 0.5, 0.25 and 0.
a. certain b. likely c. unlikely d. probable
e. improbable f. definite g. impossible h. slim chance
i. sure thing j. doubtful k. fifty-fifty l. more than likely
2. WE1 For each of the following experiments, list the sample space to show the total possible outcomes.
a. A standard six-sided die is rolled.
b. A marble is randomly selected from a bag containing 4 green, 2 yellow and 3 blue marbles.
c. A letter is selected from the letters of the alphabet.
3. WE2 A standard 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling:
a. a 5 b. a number less than 3 c. an even number?
4. The letters of the word MATHEMATICS are each written on a small piece of card and placed in a bag.
If one card is selected from the bag, what is the probability that it is:
a. a vowel b. a consonant c. the letter M d. the letter C?
5. A spinner of 8 equally likely numbers is spun.
a. List the sample space.
b. What is the probability of obtaining:
i. an odd number ii. a number that is less than 6
iii. the number 9 iv. a number that is at most 8?
6. A normal pack of 52 playing cards is well shuffled and one card is drawn.
a. List the sample space.
b. What is the probability of being dealt:
i. a heart ii. a red card
iii. an ace of diamonds iv. a picture card ( jack, queen or king)?
7. MC The probability of obtaining a number less than 5 on the spinner at right is:
1
a. 1 b. 0 c.
5
4
d. e. None of these
5

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 8. What is the complement of each of these events?
a. Owning a dog b. Flipping a coin and getting a Tail
c. Sleeping d. Attending school
e. Passing your Learner Knowledge Test f. Owning a mobile phone
9. WE3 Wayne’s Physics teacher told him that he had a 20% chance of passing the final exam, based on
Wayne’s prior exam scores.
a. What is the complement of this event?
b. What is the probability of the complement of this event?
10. If two dice are rolled, what are the probabilities that the sum is:
a. 5 b. not 5 c. 6 or 7
d. not 6 or 7 e. 2 f. not 2?
11. There are three different colours of flowers in a basket: red,
yellow, and purple. Assuming that you pick one flower from the
basket, the complement of picking a red flower is picking a purple
flower. True or false? Explain your answer.
Problem-solving and reasoning
12. List two events that have a probability of:
a. 0 b. 0.5 c. 1 d. 0.75 e. 0.25.
13. Answer the following for each of the spinners shown.
i. Is there an equal chance of landing on each colour? Explain.
ii. List all the possible outcomes.
iii. Find the probability of each outcome.
a. b. c.

14. All the jelly beans in the photograph are placed in a bag for a simple
probability experiment.
a. Which colour jelly bean is most likely to be selected from the bag?
Explain.
b. Which colour jelly bean is least likely to be selected from the bag?
Explain.
c. Find the probability of selecting each coloured jelly bean from
the bag.
15. Draw spinners with the following probabilities.
1 2
a. P(blue) = and P(white) =
3 3
1 1 1 1 ξ
A′
b. P(blue) = , P(white) = , P(green) = and P(red) =
2 4 8 8
c. P(blue) = 0.75 and P(white) = 0.25
A
16. Refer to the Venn diagram at right. If set A = { 1, 2, 8, 9, 15 } and the
universal set ξ = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10, 12, 13, 15 } , what is A′
(the complement of A)?

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 13.3 Multi-stage experiments
13.3.1 Arrays
•• When two events occur to form a single result, an array can be used to display the sample space.
•• Consider an experiment in which a red die and a blue die are rolled, and the two numbers that land
uppermost are recorded. The array below shows the sample space for that experiment. There are
36 possible outcomes in this sample space.
Die 2
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)
2 (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
3 (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
Die 1
4 (4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
5 (5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
6 (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)
•• An array is also useful when there are two events but there are a different number of outcomes for
each event. For example, the array below shows the sample space for an experiment where a coin is
flipped and a die is rolled.
Die
1 2 3 4 5 6
H (H, 1) (H, 2) (H, 3) (H, 4) (H, 5) (H, 6)
Coin
T (T, 1) (T, 2) (T, 3) (T, 4) (T, 5) (T, 6)

WORKED EXAMPLE 4

Two dice are rolled and the numbers that appear uppermost are recorded. What is the
probability of rolling at least one 1?
THINK WRITE
1 •• Draw the array for the sample space. Die
•• Highlight or circle the outcomes that
have at least one 1, as shown in 1 2 3 4 5 6
green. 1 (1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)
•• There are 11 outcomes with at least 2 (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
one 1.
3 (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
Die 1

4 (4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)

5 (5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
6 (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)
n(outcomes with at least one 1)
2 Calculate the probability using the P(at least one 1) =
n(ξ)
formula. There are 36 outcomes in the 11
sample space. =
36

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 13.3.2 Tree diagrams
•• Tree diagrams are used to list all possible outcomes of two or more Coin 1 Coin 2 Outcomes
events. The branches show the possible links between one outcome and
H HH
the next outcome. The tree diagram at right represents the sample space H
for flipping two coins. T HT
•• When all outcomes are equally likely, probabilities can be calculated H TH
from tree diagrams. For example, in the tree diagram shown, the T
probability of obtaining one Tail and one Head can be calculated: T TT

number of outcomes with one H and one T

P(one H and one T) =
total number of outcomes
2
=
4
1
=
2
•• Each event is treated as if it were a separate event, even if events occur at the same time. For example,
the tree diagram above applies to experiments where:
–– two coins are flipped together
–– the same coin is flipped twice.

WORKED EXAMPLE 5

The uniform committee at school is deciding on a new colour combination for the school uniform.
The two colour choices for the school pants, shirt and jumper are red and yellow.
a Use a tree diagram to show all the possible combinations.
b Calculate the probability that the uniform will consist of only one colour.
c Calculate the probability that a red jumper will be part of the uniform.

THINK WRITE
a The three events are the colour of the pants, the Pants Shirt Jumper Outcomes
colour of the shirt and the colour of the jumper. R R RR
There are two choices for each of these. R Y R RY
R R R YR
Y
Y R YY
R YRR
R Y Y RY
Y
R Y YR
Y
Y Y YY
2
b For the uniform to consist of only one colour, all P(all one colour) =
8
pieces need to be red or all pieces need to be yellow. 1
There is one outcome with all red and one outcome =
4
with all yellow. There are eight outcomes altogether.
4
c Four of the outcomes have a red jumper. P(red jumper) =
8
1
=
2

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 RESOURCES

Video: Tree diagrams (eles-1934)

Exercise 13.3 Multi-stage experiments

Knowledge and understanding
1. WE4 In the game of Pretzel, the two spinners shown are
spun and each contestant places the two body parts spun Left Right
Left Right hand hand
in contact and holds them there until the next two body foot foot
parts are spun. If you fall over, you are out. The winner is Left Right
the last person standing. Left Right elbow elbow
When the spinners are spun, what is the probability knee knee Head
that the contestants will need to place:
a. their right foot on their head
b. their left elbow on a knee
c. their head on a foot
d. their left hand on a body part lower than their belly button?
2. WE5 A restaurant has the menu shown at right.
a. Use a tree diagram to show how many different combinations are
Entrée
possible for a meal with one selection at each course.
Pumpkin soup
b. If a person selects a dinner at random, what is the probability that: Mini spring rolls
i. they have soup for entrée
ii. they have spring rolls and curry Main course
iii. they don’t have ice-cream for dessert Pasta bolognaise
iv. they have soup and pasta but not ice-cream? Grilled fish
Beef curry
3. For a fundraiser, your class is selling single-scoop ice-cream cones at
lunchtime. There is a choice of vanilla and chocolate ice-cream, topped Dessert
with chocolate curls, sprinkles or melted chocolate or no topping at all. Lemon pie
a. Draw a tree diagram to show all the possible combinations of ice- Ice-cream
cream and topping that you could have from the stall.
b. If a person chooses an ice-cream at random, calculate the probability
that:
i. both the ice-cream and the topping are chocolate
ii. it is a vanilla ice-cream with sprinkles
iii. there is no topping on the ice-cream.
4. In your drawers at home, there are two white
T-shirts, a green T-shirt and a red T-shirt. There
is also a pair of black pants and a pair of khaki
pants.
a. Draw a tree diagram to show all the possible
combinations of T-shirts and pants that you
could wear.
b. If you get dressed in the dark and put on one
T-shirt and one pair of pants, calculate the
probability that you put on the red T-shirt and
khaki pants.

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 5. In the last Science test, your friend guessed the answers to three true/false questions.
a. Use a tree diagram to show all the different answer combinations for the three questions.
b. Calculate the probability that your friend:
i. got all three answers correct
ii. got two correct answers
iii. got no correct answers.
6. Assuming that the chance of a baby being a boy or a girl is
the same:
a. Calculate the probability that a family with three children
has:
i. all boys
ii. two girls and one boy
iii. three children of the same gender
iv. at least one girl
v. two children of the same gender.
b. If the family was expecting another baby, what is the
probability that the new baby will be a boy?
c. If the family already has three boys, what is the
probability that the new baby will be a boy?
d. If the family has three girls, what is the probability that
the new baby will be a boy?
e. How likely is the combination of children shown in the
photo at right?
7. A spinner is divided into 5 sections (red, blue, green,
yellow and orange). A six-sided die is also rolled. List the
sample space for one spin of the spinner and one roll of the die.
8. MC A six-sided die and a coin are tossed at the same time. The sample space is:
a. { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 } b. { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, H, T }
c. { (1, H), (2, H), (3, H), (4, H), (5, H), (6, H) }
d. { (1, H), (2, H), (3, H), (4, H), (5, H), (6, H), (1, T), (2, T), (3, T), (4, T), (5, T), (6, T) }
e. None of the above
9. How many final branches in a tree diagram would there be in an experiment of:
a. flipping 5 coins b. flipping 6 coins c. rolling 4 dice?
10. A fair coin is flipped 3 times. Calculate the probability of obtaining:
a. at least two H or at least two T
b. exactly two T.
11. MC A fair coin is flipped 3 times. The probability of obtaining at most 1 Tail is:
1 1 3 1 2
a. b. c. d. e.
3 2 8 8 3
12. A spinner of 7 equally likely numbers is spun twice and the two numbers are added. Calculate the
probability of obtaining a total of:
a. 2 or 14 b. 9 c. at least 12.
13. Two dice are rolled and the product of the two numbers is found. Calculate the probability that the
product of the two numbers is:
a. an odd number b. Prime number c. more than 1 d. at most 36.
14. A fair die is rolled and a fair coin flipped. Calculate the probability of obtaining:
a. an even number and a Head b. a Tail from the coin
c. a prime number from the die d. a number less than 5 and a Head.

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 Problem-solving and reasoning
15. a. Use a table to find the sample space for an experiment where two dice are rolled and the sum of the
two numbers appearing uppermost is found.
b. List any patterns you found in the sample space.
c. Copy and complete the following table.

Sum of two dice 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Probability
d. List any patterns that you notice in the probabilities you found in the table above.
16. In a new game, two dice are rolled and the difference between the two dice is noted. If the difference
is larger than 2, you win; otherwise you lose.
a. Use a table to find the sample space for the game.
b. Calculate the probability of winning (having a difference greater than 2).
c. Calculate the probability of losing (having a difference of 2 or less).
d. A fair game is one where the chances of winning are the same as the chances of losing. Is this game fair?
17. The game Rock, paper, scissors is sometimes used to make a decision between two people. It uses the
three different hand signs shown below. On the count of 3, each player displays one of the hand signs.
The photos below show all possible results.

FS
a. Draw up a table like the one below to show all the possible combinations for a single game of Rock,
paper, scissors.
Rock Paper Scissors
Person 2
Rock Paper Scissors
O
O
Scissors

PR
Person 1

Rock breaks scissors

Paper

E
G
Rock

PA

Rock wins
Paper covers rock
b. Use the rules given to circle the winner for each
D

combination in the table.

c. Calculate the probability that:
TE

i. rock wins
Paper wins
ii. paper wins
iii. scissors wins. Scissors cut paper
EC

d. Is Rock, paper, scissors a fair game?

e. A friend suggested that you add dynamite to the
game with the following rules.
• Dynamite blows up the rock and wins.
• Dynamite has its fuse cut by scissors and loses.
• Dynamite sets the paper on fire and wins. Scissors wins
i. Modify your table in part a to include dynamite.
ii. State whether the game is fair with dynamite included.
iii. Support your answer to part ii using the table and probabilities.

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 18. There are three different ways to go from school to the shops. There are two different ways to go from
the shops to the library. There is only one way to go from the library to home.
This afternoon you need to travel from school to home via the shops and the library.
a. Use a tree diagram to calculate the number of different routes you could use on your journey. (Hint:
Use the letters A, B and C to represent the different routes from school to the shops and D and E to
represent the different routes from the shops to the library. Use F to represent the route from the
library to home.) A
b. Would the number of outcomes
E
be different if we omitted the last Shops
leg of the journey from the library D
B
to home? Why? School
19. a. 
Assuming that players have an
equal chance of winning a game
of tennis, draw a tree diagram to C
represent a tournament with 8
games in the first round. The
Library
winner of each game goes on to Home F
the next round.
b. How could you calculate the
probability of a particular person winning the tournament?
c. Is it realistic to assume that tennis players have an equal chance of winning each game? Explain your
answer.
20. A die is rolled and 2 coins are flipped. Display the sample space using an appropriate method.
21. A restaurant offers a choice of 3 main meals (beef, fish and vegetarian) and 4 different desserts (ice
cream, pudding, cake and fruit). Display the sample space, showing all possible combinations of
two-course dinners.
22. Two dice are rolled and the sum of the two numbers obtained is found.
a. Draw an array to display the possible results.
b. Calculate the probability of obtaining a total that:
i. is less than 6 ii. is a multiple of 4
23. When a student chooses subjects for Year 10, they are asked to choose one language from Block 1 and
one elective from Block 2.
•• Block 1 consists of Auslan, German, Indonesian, Japanese and Mandarin.
•• Block 2 consists of Ceramics, Drama, Environmental Science, Korean and Practical Music.
a. Use a tree diagram to display all possible combinations that a student moving into Year 10 might have.
b. Calculate the probability that a randomly chosen combination includes:
i. two languages ii. Auslan and Environmental Science.
24. At a restaurant, the banquet meal consists of 3 different starters — steamed dumpling, leek and potato
pancake, and grilled eggplant; 4 main meals — lamb stirfry, chicken curry, kebabs, and mixed
vegetables with rice; and 2 desserts — baklava and mousse. Each course is provided all at the one
time and each customer at a table can choose to their liking.
a. Display this information on a tree diagram.
b. What is the probability that a person chosen at a random table chooses the steamed dumpling for
starters, lamb stirfry for the main course and baklava for dessert?
25. Person A is given a pair of normal 6-sided dice. Person B is given one die which is numbered
{ 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8 } and another die numbered { 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4 } . What is the probability that the sum of the
pair of dice is:
a. seven or more for person A
b. seven or more for person B?

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 13.4 Experimental probability
13.4.1 Relative frequency
•• Often in real life it is not possible to calculate a theoretical probability for an event. In these situations,
an experiment is carried out.
•• An experiment that is repeated a number of times is called a trial and becomes part of a larger
experiment. For example, a die is rolled and the number uppermost is recorded. This is an experiment.
If the experiment is repeated another 49 times, the first roll of the die is now referred to as the first trial
in an experiment where the die is rolled 50 times.
•• A successful trial is a trial where the result is the outcome that you wanted.
•• The relative frequency, sometimes called the empirical or experimental probability, of an event is
calculated using the following formula:
number of successful trials
relative frequency =
total number of trials
•• The relative frequency of an event for a very large number of trials gives an indication of the value of
the theoretical probability.
•• As the number of trials increases, the relative frequency of an event will gradually become closer in
value to the theoretical probability. This is known as the ‘law of large numbers’.
•• If the number of trials is large enough, the relative frequency can be used as an estimate of probability.

13.4.2 Simulations
Sometimes it is not possible to conduct trials of a real experiment because it is too expensive, too difficult
or impractical. In situations like this, outcomes of events can be modelled using devices such as spinners,
dice or coins to simulate or represent what happens in real life. These simulated experiments are called
simulations.

WORKED EXAMPLE 6

To simulate whether a baby is born male or female, a coin is flipped. If the coin lands Heads up, the
baby is a boy. If the coin lands Tails up, the baby is a girl. Student 1 flips a coin 10 times and obtains
3 Heads and 7 Tails, while Student 2 flips a coin 100 times and obtains 43 Heads and 57 Tails.
a Determine the relative frequency of females in both cases.
b Compare the results from the two simulations and determine which is a better estimate of the
true probability.
THINK WRITE
a 1 A baby born female is a successful trial. Student 1:
•• For Student 1: in the simulation, females number of successful trials
Relative frequency =
are Tails. There were 7 Tails, so 7 females total number of trials
were born and there were 7 successful trials 7
= 10
out of 10 trials.
= 0.7
•• Write the formula for relative frequency
and substitute in the results.
2 For Student 2: there were 57 Tails, so Student 2:
57 females were born and there were 57 number of successful trials
relative frequency =
successful trials out of 100 trials. Write the total number of trials
formula for relative frequency and substitute 57
= 100
in the results. = 0.57

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 b 1 Compare the results of the two simulations. Student Realative frequency
The closer the relative frequency is to 1, the
higher the probability. 1 0.7
2 0.43

2 The greater the number of trials, the better the Student 2 held more trials, so achieved the
estimate of probability achieved. better estimate of probability.

13.4.3 Using technology to perform simulations

•• Simulating experiments using manual devices such as dice and spinners can take a lot of time. A more
efficient method of collecting results is to use a list of randomly generated numbers.
•• Random number generators can generate a series of numbers between two given values, for exam-
ple decimals between 0 and 0.9999. The following table shows some Excel formulas that generate
random numbers.

Formula Output
= RAND() A random decimal from 0 to 0.9999
= INT (6*RAND () + 1) Integers between 1 and 6 that can be used to simulate rolling a die.
= RANDBETWEEN (1, 6) Both of these formulae can be modified to generate the type of
numbers that you require.

WORKED EXAMPLE 7

a Use a random number generator to simulate the number of chocolate chips in 50 biscuits,
with a maximum of 80 chocolate chips in each.
b Calculate the probability that there will be more than 30 chocolate chips in a randomly
chosen biscuit.
THINK WRITE
1 Use a random number generator to 15 7 64 73 47 12 74 74 16 42
generate 50 numbers between 0 and 80.
41 22 50 33 68 72 64 16 6 72
2 Count the number of biscuits with
8 55 8 62 80 50 42 80 57 39
more than 30 choc-chips. There are
34 in the example shown. 70 72 52 48 14 22 59 48 65 34
67 62 72 59 10 30 13 7 40 18

3 The probability is number of P(more than 30 chocolate chips) = 34

50
successful outcomes (34) divided by = 0.68
the number of trials (50).

13.4.4 Factors that could complicate simulations

•• Simulations are used to reproduce real-life situations when it is not feasible to implement the actual test.
•• The reasons for not conducting an actual test can include financial or safety constraints, or just the
overall complexity of running the test.

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 •• Most simulations are conducted using computers, and vari-
ous other mechanical devices.
•• For example, airbag manufacturers run airbag tests using
cars, but instead of using real humans they use human
mannequins. These simulations are fairly accurate, but they
have their limitations. One problem with the airbag
simulation is the difficulty of modelling the interaction of
the airbag with the seatbelt.
•• There are numerous other factors that can affect the success
of the airbag in an accident. Some of these factors are easy
to simulate, but others are not yet known or are too difficult
to simulate.

WORKED EXAMPLE 8

Six runners are to compete in a race.

a Explain how simulation could be used to determine the winner.
b Are there any limitations in your answer?
THINK WRITE
a There are six runners so six numbers are needed Each runner could be assigned a number on a
to represent them. A die is the obvious choice. die, which could be rolled to determine the
Assign numbers 1 to 6 to each runner. winner of the race. When the die is rolled, it
simulates a race. The number that lands
uppermost is the winner of the race.
b In this simulation, each runner had an equally The answer depends on each runner having an
likely chance of winning each game. equally likely chance of winning each game.
This is rarely the case.

13.4.5 Using relative frequencies

•• Statisticians sometimes want to compare the attitudes of certain groups, with frequency tables used to
visually show the statistical differences in the groups’ attitudes. Frequency tables typically show
results obtained from taking a random sample from a large population, or from gathering all the data
from an entire population when the population is small.
•• When calculating relative frequencies, complete the following steps:
1. Gather the required statistics.
2. Determine the total number of people polled.
3. Determine each groups’ attitude in relation to the total number of people polled and write in
fractional form, e.g.
30
100 people polled, 30 liked the caravan park =
100
4. Convert the fraction to a decimal.
30
= 0.3
100
5. Convert the decimal to a percentage.
30
= 0.3
100
= 30%
6. Check that all relative frequencies add to 100%. Note: When the decimals or percentages are
rounded off, the figure may be slightly below or above 100%.

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 WORKED EXAMPLE 9

In a recent election, there were 4 candidates. During a telephone poll conducted a week before
the election, 500 randomly selected voters were asked to indicate their preferences for the
4 ­candidates. The results are shown in the table below.

Candidate   1   2   3 4

Number of voters who preferred this candidate 115 168 145 72

Estimate each candidate’s probability of winning the election.

THINK WRITE
115
1 The probability of a candidate winning is the P(candidate 1 wins) = 500
= 0.230
number of votes they received divided by the 168
P(candidate 2 wins) = = 0.336
total number of votes. 500
145
P(candidate 3 wins) = 500
= 0.290
72
P(candidate 4 wins) = 500
= 0.144

2 The closer the relative frequency is to 1, the higher Candidate 2 is the favourite to win.
the probability of success.

WORKED EXAMPLE 10

Use the table to answer the following questions.

Percentage of US women who develop breast cancer over 10-, 20- and 30-year intervals ­according
to their current age, 2010–12

Current age 10 Years 20 Years 30 Years

30 0.44 1.87 4.05
40 1.44 3.65 6.80
50 2.28 5.53 8.75
60 3.46 6.89 8.89
70 3.89 6.16 N/A
Source: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program of the National Cancer Institute (NCI),
https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2012/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=4&pageSEL=sect_04_table.17.html
If 3500 women whose current age is 30 are questioned every year for the next ten years about
whether or not they have contracted breast cancer:
a approximately how many will answer yes
b approximately how many will answer no?

THINK WRITE
a 1 Look on the chart and find the row with current age 30
and the corresponding column that indicates 10 years. The
percent in this box is 0.44%.
0.44
2 Convert 0.44% to a decimal. = 0.0044
100

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 3 Multiply 3500 by the result from step 2. The answer 0.0044 × 3500 = 15.4
represents the number of women from this group who will
answer yes in the next 10 years.

4 Since a fractional result is not valid in this context, 15 women will answer yes.
round to the nearest whole number.

b 1 The number of women who contract cancer and the 3500 –15 = 3485
number of women who don’t contract cancer is 3500.
Subtract the answer to part a from 3500.
2 Write the answer. 3485 women will answer no.

RESOURCES

Interactivity: Experimental probability (int-3825)

Exercise 13.4 Experimental probability

Knowledge and understanding
1. WE6 To simulate whether or not the weather will be suitable for sailing, a coin is flipped. If the coin
lands Heads up, the weather is perfect. If the coin lands Tails up, the weather is not suitable.
Mandy flips a coin 20 times and obtains 13 Heads and 7 Tails. Sophia flips a coin 100 times and
obtains 47 Heads and 53 Tails.
a. Determine the relative frequency of perfect weather days in both cases.
b. Compare the results from the two simulations and determine which is a better estimate of the true
probability of the experiment.
2. A box of 50 batteries was tested and three were found to be flat.
a. What was the relative frequency of a flat battery?
b. In a box of 500 batteries, how many batteries would you expect to be flat?
3. The results of a class experiment that involved rolling a standard six-sided die 300 times are shown in
the table below.

Number on die 1 2 3 4 5 6
Number of times rolled 42 50 61 37 52 58

Use the results to calculate the experimental probability of rolling:

a. the number 5 b. an odd number c. an even number.
4. In her last 20 games, a basketball player sank 17 free throws and missed 11. Estimate the probability
of sinking her next free throw.
5. MC A student rolls a pair of dice 10 times and records the number of times the total is 7. He repeats
the experiment numerous times and his results are as follows.
1, 5, 3, 2, 1, 0, 2, 3, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, 1, 2, 6, 2, 0, 1, 2
The estimate of the probability of getting a total of 7 when 2 dice are tossed is:
7 41 41
a. b. c.
12 100 200
41
d. e. None of the above
400

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 6. WE7 a. Use a random number generator to simulate the number of walnuts in a carrot cake, with a
maximum of 60 in each cake.
b. Calculate the probability that there will be more than 40 walnuts in a randomly chosen cake.
7. The gender of babies in a set of triplets is simulated by flipping 3 coins. If a coin lands Tails up, the
baby is a boy. If a coin lands Heads up, the baby is a girl. In the simulation, the trial is repeated
40 times and the following results show the number of Heads obtained in each trial:
0, 3, 2, 1, 1, 0, 1, 2, 1, 0, 1, 0, 2, 0, 1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 3, 0, 2, 1, 2, 0, 3, 1, 3, 0, 1, 0, 1, 3,2, 2, 1, 2, 1.
a. Calculate the probability that exactly one of the babies in a set of triplets is female.
b. Calculate the probability that more than one of the babies in the set of triplets is female.
8. WE8 There are 24 drivers lining up at the start of a Formula One race.
a. Explain how simulation could be used to determine the winner.
b. Are there any limitations in your answer?
9. WE9 A survey of the favourite foods of Year 11 students is recorded, with the following results.

Meal Tally
Hamburger 45
Fish and chips 31
Macaroni and cheese 30
Lamb souvlaki 25
BBQ pork ribs 21
Cornflakes 17
T-bone steak 14
Banana split 12
Corn-on-the-cob 9
Hot dogs 8
Garden salad 8
Veggie burger 7
Smoked salmon 6
Muesli 5
Fruit salad 3

a. Estimate the probability that macaroni and cheese is the favourite food among Year 11 students.
b. Estimate the probability that a vegetarian dish is the favourite food.
c. Estimate the probability that a beef dish is the favourite food
10. If a computer manufacturer wanted to simulate the probability of their laptops having a fault, would it
be appropriate to use a random number generator? Why or why not?
11. A random number generator was used to select how many students will receive a free lunch on any
given day. The maximum amount of students who can receive a free lunch is 10 and the minimum is 0.
a. If the test is run for 30 days, what is the probability that:
i. 8 or more students are selected on any given day
ii. 0 students are selected on any given day
iii. 10 students are selected on any given day?

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 b. Use a random number generator to simulate the free lunch program and compare the results to your
predictions.
c. Are the results from the random-number generator the same as your predictions? Why or why not?
12. Determine if the following simulations are easy or difficult to undertake. If your response is ‘difficult’,
explain why.
a. Predicting how a helicopter pilot will react in an emergency
b. Estimating how many times you will win when spinning a roulette wheel
c. Predicting how many kilometres a new car will travel before any major mechanical problems
d. Estimating how many car accidents you will have in your lifetime
e. Estimating the number of defective mobile phones that one manufacturer will produce over two months
13. WE10 a. Five thousand new domestic university students are selected. Use the 2011 data in the chart
below to predict how many students will not come back after their first year of university for the
4-year period of 2015–18.
b. Based on the domestic trend for students not coming back after the first year, do you believe that
your estimate in part a will be higher or lower than the actual percentage? Explain your answer.

Completion rates of higher education students – cohort analysis, 2005−2014

Still enrolled
at the end of Re-enrolled, Never came
Completed the 4-year but dropped back after
Year (in any year) cohort period out the first year
National total 2005 47.3% 30.2% 11.5% 11.0%
(domestic students)
2006 46.7% 32.7% 10.6% 10.0%
2007 45.9% 33.8% 10.4% 9.9%
2008 46.7% 33.5% 10.9% 8.9%
2009 46.1% 34.3% 11.1% 8.5%
2010 45.1% 34.7% 11.2% 9.0%
2011 45.0% 34.5% 11.7% 8.8%

Source: Department of Education and Training, Completion Rates of Higher Education Students — Cohort Analysis,
2005–2014

Problem-solving and reasoning

14. The results of a coin-flipping experiment are shown.
Outcome Frequency
a. What are the relative frequencies of:
i. Heads Heads 38
ii. Tails?
Tails 62
b. If the experiment was repeated, would you expect the same results?
Explain your answer. Total 100
c. If the experiment was repeated 100 times, what do you expect to
happen to the relative frequencies of the outcomes?
15. (Note: You will need a six-sided die for this question.)
The latest promotion by a chocolate bar manufacturer claims ‘Every third one is free’. When you get
the special message inside the wrapper, you get a refund on the purchase price. The manufacturer has
put the special message in every third wrapper. When the chocolate bars are packaged into boxes, they
are mixed randomly. Use the numbers 3 and 6 on a die to represent getting a free chocolate bar.

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 a. Carry out 50 trial purchases of chocolate bars.
b. Calculate the relative frequency of a free chocolate bar.
c. Compare your results with the students around you.
d. Did other students get different results? Explain why.
e. In 100 trials, how many free chocolate bars would you expect to receive?
16. a. How many times would you expect to roll a 4 if you rolled a fair die:
i. 10 times ii. 60 times iii. 1000 times?
b. If you actually carried out these experiments, would you get the exact number that you predicted?
Explain your answer.
17. The mouse in the maze is trying to reach the cheese. Use a coin to help
the mouse to decide to go left or right when a new choice is available. If
you come to a dead end, turn around and go back to where you have a
choice to go left or right. There are two possible outcomes for the mouse:
• escaping the maze
• reaching the cheese.
Use simulation to determine the relative frequencies of each of the
outcomes.
18. A simulation of the ages of a class of Year 11 students using random
numbers is shown.
16 17 16 17 18 18
16 17 16 16 16 17
16 17 17 17 17 18
18 17 18 17 16 17

a. Carry out the same simulation using your random number generator.
b. Complete a frequency table for each simulation.
c. Compare the results of the two simulations and comment on any differences or similarities.
19. A popular pokies game requires you to spin up the same picture in all five slots to win. There are six
different pictures possible in each of the five positions.
a. Use a random number generator to generate 100 sets of five random numbers between 1 and 6.
b. Calculate the probability of winning (having the same picture in each of the five slots).
c. What other device could be used to perform this simulation?
d. List the benefits and the disadvantages of each method of generating random results.
20. A player suspects that a die is loaded (unfair), so she rolls the die 600 times to find out. The results of
the experiment are shown in the table below.

Number on die 1 2 3 4 5 6
Number of times rolled 63 90 96 118 95 138

a. Predict the number of times each number should appear if the die were a fair die.
b. Explain whether you think the die is loaded.
21. a. The possible outcomes for a tennis match are win or lose. Does this mean that you will have a
probability of 12 (or 0.5) of beating your friend in a match?
b. What other factors can be involved in determining the probability you have of winning a tennis
match? (Assume that you and your friend regularly play each other.)
c. How could you determine the experimental probability that you will beat your friend in a tennis
match?

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 13.5 Review
13.5.1 Summary
In this topic you have learnt:
•• about the probability scale
•• how to list the sample space to show the total possible outcomes
•• how to calculate theoretical probability
•• about the complement of an event
•• how to calculate the probability of the complement of an event occurring
•• how to use an array to display sample spaces where two events occur
•• how to use tree diagrams to show all possible combinations
•• how to calculate relative frequency
•• about simulations and how to perform them using technology
•• about factors that could complicate simulations
•• how to use relative frequencies.

Exercise 13.5 Review

Knowledge and understanding
1. What is the sample space for the following scenarios?
a. Flipping an 8-sided die
b. Drawing an ‘a’ in bingo
c. Drawing the winning ticket in a raffle with 100 tickets sold
d. A random number generator selecting an even number from 0 to 50
2. Choose which of the following events are ‘most likely’ and ‘impossible’.
a. A cyclone in Victoria
b. The temperature rising above 30 degrees Celsius on a summer day in Darwin
c. Snow in Cairns
d. Getting stung by an Irukandji jellyfish in Tasmania
3. Create three events that meet the following criteria.
a. Less than even chance of occurring
b. Greater than an even chance of occurring
4. Two fair dice are rolled and the product of the uppermost faces is recorded.
a. List the sample space for the experiment.
b. What is the most likely outcome?
c. What is the least likely outcome?
5. Two dice are rolled and the difference of the two uppermost faces is recorded.
a. Construct a table to illustrate the sample space.
b. What is the most likely outcome?
c. What is the least likely outcome?
6. a. What is the probability of rolling a 3 on a 6-sided die?
b. What is the complement of the event in part a?
c. What is the probability of the complement occurring?
7. a. If you toss two fair dice, what is the probability that the two numbers you roll are different?
b. What is the complement of this event?
c. Would it be easier to calculate the probability of the complement before calculating the original
event? Explain your answer.

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 8. The following table show what people do with their old mobile phones in Australia. What is the
probability of NOT selling or losing your mobile phone in Australia?

Saved it Shared it Binned it (recycled) Sold it Lost it

48% 27% 15% 8% 2%
Source: © 2015 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, Mobile Consumer Survey 2015 – The Australian Cut

9. In the game of backgammon, two dice are used. The resulting numbers can be used separately in two
separate moves, or their totals can be combined for one move.
a. How many possible combinations are there?
b. Calculate the probability of ‘getting a 4 on a die or a total of 4 on both dice’.
c. Calculate the probability of NOT ‘getting a 4 on a die or a total of 4 on both dice’.
d. Calculate the probability of ‘getting a 4’ OR ‘getting a 5 on a die or a total of 5 on both dice’.
e. Calculate the probability of NOT getting a ‘4 on a die or a total of 4 on both dice’ OR a ‘5 on a die or
a total of 5 on both dice’ OR a ‘6 on a die or a total of 6 on both dice’.
10. A soft-drink chemist is trying to create a new drink
with three different ingredients. The chemist wants to
experiment with the mixing order of the three key
ingredients. Draw a tree diagram to show the sample
space and determine how many combinations are
possible.
11. A car dealer offers these package options on one of
their new models.
•• Interior: leather or suede
•• Transmission: manual or automatic
•• Front seats: bucket, captain or regular
a. How many different configurations of options are
available?
b. What is the theoretical probability a random
customer chooses a bucket seat in their package?
12. A fair coin is flipped and then an 8-sided die is rolled.
a. List all the possible outcomes in a chart
b. What is the probability of getting a Head and an 8
c. Would you bet on any of the outcomes? Why or why not?
13. What are the top five most probable results in a game when two 6-sided die are rolled and the results
of the two dice are added?
14. If a random card is chosen from a deck of 52 cards, what is the experimental probability of:
a. selecting an ace
b. selecting an ace or a king
c. not selecting a 2
d. not selecting any face card?
15. A car manufacturer conducted a survey to see which were the most popular colours for 4-door sedans
currently being driven. The results were as follows:
Colour Red Silver White Blue
Number 134 167 109 89

a. What is the relative frequency of owners who had blue sedans?

b. What is the relative frequency of owners who had sedans that were not red or blue?

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 16. According to the Australian Red Cross Blood Service, the percentage of blood group frequency in
Australia is as shown.

2% 1%
2%

O positive
8% O negative
7% A positive
40 % A negative
B positive
31 % B negative
9% AB positive
AB negative

Source: Data from Australian Red Cross Blood Service

a. What is the sum of the percentages of all the blood types?

b. If you were to select 1000 random people, how many would you expect to have AB negative blood?
c. Is the result from part b guaranteed? Why or why not?
d. If you tested 1000 random people, could the number of O positive people be 50% rather than 40%?
Why or why not?
17. A biologist was trying to calculate the
probability of being attacked by a shark in
Australian waters when surfing.
a. What data would be necessary to increase
the accuracy of his ­prediction?
b. What data in part a would be difficult to
obtain? What data would be easier to
obtain?
c. Would you accept his probability results?
Why or why not?
18. Is it possible to flip a fair coin 10 times and
obtain a result closer to the theoretical
probability than if you flip a fair coin 50 000
times? Explain your answer.
19. Over a three-year period, a Mathematics teacher recorded the following scores on exams.

Grade Frequency Percentage

A 500 10%
B 800 16%
C 2000 40%
D 1000 20%
F 700 14%

a. How many A’s should she expect on her next exam if she has 20 students?
b. How many F’s should she expect on her next exam if she has 20 students?

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 20. If a basketball player is making 80% of free throws for the season, and has missed all of three free
throws in regulation time for this game, would you expect him to make a free throw for the game
winning point in overtime? Explain your answer.
Problem-solving and reasoning
21. In a simple experiment, a coin was flipped 50 times, resulting in 28 Heads and 22 Tails.
a. Calculate the experimental probability of flipping a Head with the coin.
b. Compare the experimental probability with the theoretical probability of flipping a Head with the
coin. Explain why the two probabilities are different in this case.
22. a. Use a table to show the sample space for an experiment where a coin is flipped and a die is rolled.
b. Calculate the probability of obtaining a Tail and a 5.
23. At a fair, people were asked to taste and state their preference for two new brands of soft drink: brand
A and brand B.
a. List all the possible outcomes using a tree diagram.
b. What is the probability that a randomly selected person liked:
i. brand A but not brand B
ii. brand A and brand B
iii. brand A?
24. a. How many times would you expect to roll a 6 if you rolled a fair die:
i. 10 times ii. 150 times iii. 5000 times?
b. If you actually did the experiments in part a, would you get the exact number that you predicted?
Explain your answers.
25. You are about to sit a Mathematics examination that contains 40 multiple-choice questions. You didn’t
have time to study so you are going to choose the answers completely randomly. There are five
choices for each question.
Explain how you could use random numbers to select your answers for you.
26. The spinner shown below was spun 50 times and the outcome each time was recorded in the table
below.

Segment Blue Green Yellow

Tally 17 23 10

a. List the event space.

b. Given the experimental results, determine the relative frequency for each segment.
c. The theoretical probability of the spinner landing on any particular segment with one spin is 13. How
could the experiment be changed to give a better estimate of the true probabilities?
27. The following table is a simulation of the outcomes of a game where a person hides a marble under
cup 1, cup 2 or cup 3. You have to guess which cup the marble is under.

Under cup 1 Under cup 2 Under cup 3 Staying with cup 1 Switching to remaining cup
Marble No marble No marble Win Lose
No marble Marble No marble Lose Win
No marble No marble Marble Lose Win

The operator of the game knows where the marble is located. After you choose a cup, the operator
purposely lifts up one of the cups where there is no marble. You have a choice to switch your decision
to the last remaining cup.

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 a. What is the theoretical probability of selecting the cup with the marble on your first guess?
b. What is the theoretical probability of switching to the other remaining cup and selecting the marble?
c. Should you stick with your initial choice or change your selection to the remaining cup? Explain
your answer.
28. A friend offers you a chance to roll a single die three times, and if you roll a 3 on anyone of the rolls
he will pay for your lunch. Otherwise, you will pay for his lunch. Should you play his game? Explain
your answer.
29. There are four different possible hair colours: red, brunette, brown and blonde. Assume that each hair
colour is equally likely. If there are 5 people in a room, what is the probability that at least 2 have the
same coloured hair? (Hint: Use the complement to solve this problem.)
30. A group of young entrepreneurs invented a new method for making frozen chocolate-covered bananas.
They want to test how long it would take for the product to melt at certain temperatures.
a. If you were hired as a consultant, do you think that you could produce a viable simulation? Why or
why not?
b. What would your simulation entail?
c. What factors would be easy to test?
d. What factors would be difficult to test?

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 Answers
Exercise 13.2 Theoretical probability
  1.   a. 1 b. 0.75 c. 0.25 d. 0.75
e. 0.25 f. 1 g. 0 h. 0.25
i. 1 j. 0.25 k. 0.5 l. 0.75
2. a. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
b. Green, yellow, blue
c. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, I, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q, r, s, t, u, v, w, x, y, z
1 1 1
3. a. b. c.
6 2 2
4 7 2 1
4. a. b. c. d.
11 11 11 11
5. a. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
b. i. 50% ii. 62.5% iii. 0% iv. 100%
6. a.
A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K
♥ A♥ 2♥ 3♥ 4♥ 5♥ 6♥ 7♥ 8♥ 9♥ 10♥ J♥ Q♥ K♥
♦ A♦ 2♦ 3♦ 4♦ 5♦ 6♦ 7♦ 8♦ 9♦ 10♦ J♦ Q♦ K♦
♠ A♠ 2♠ 3♠ 4♠ 5♠ 6♠ 7♠ 8♠ 9♠ 10♠ J♠ Q♠ K♠
♣ A♣ 2♣ 3♣ 4♣ 5♣ 6♣ 7♣ 8♣ 9♣ 10♣ J♣ Q♣ K♣

1 1 1 12 3
b. i. ii. iii. iv. =
4 2 52 52 13
7. d
8. a. Not owning a dog b. Flipping a coin and getting a Head
c. Being awake d. Truancy
e. Failing your Learner Knowledge Test f. Not owning a mobile phone
9. a. Failing the final exam b. 80%
4 1 32 8 11
10. a. = b. = c.
36 9 36 9 36
25 1 35
d. e. f.
36 36 36
11. False. Assuming that you pick one flower from the basket, the complement of picking a red flower is picking a purple or
yellow flower.
12. Answers will vary.
13. a. i. No
ii. Blue, green, yellow, red
1 1 1 1
iii. P(blue) = , P(green) = , P (red) = , P(yellow) =
3 6 3 6
b. i. Yes
ii. Blue, green, yellow, red, orange
1 1 1 1 1
iii. P(blue) = , P (green) = , P (red) = , P(yellow) = , P(orange) =
5 5 5 5 5
c. i. No
ii. Green, yellow
1 2
iii. P(green) = , P(yellow) =
3 3
14. a. Blue. There are more blue jelly beans (6) than beans of any other colour.
b. Yellow. There are fewer yellow jelly beans (2) than beans of any other colour.
6 5 4 2
c. P(blue) = , P(green) = , P(red) = , P(yellow) =
17 17 17 17

TOPIC 13 Relative frequency and probability 25

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 15. a. b. c.

16. { 3, 4, 5, 10, 12, 13 }

Exercise 13.3 Multi-stage experiments

1. a. 5% b. 10% c. 5% d. 20%
2. a. Lemon pie
Pasta
bolognaise
Ice-cream
Lemon pie
Pumpkin Grilled fish
soup Ice-cream
Lemon pie
Beef curry
Ice-cream
Lemon pie
Pasta
bolognaise
Ice-cream
Lemon pie
Mini spring Grilled fish
rolls Ice-cream

Lemon pie
Beef curry
Ice-cream

1 1 1 1
b. i. ii. iii. iv.
2 6 2 12
3. a. Chocolate
curls

Sprinkles
Vanilla
ice-cream Melted
chocolate

No topping

Chocolate
curls

Spinkles
Chocolate
ice-cream Melted
chocolate

No topping

b. i. 25% ii. 12.5% iii. 25%

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 4. a. Black pants
White t-shirt #1
Khaki pants

Black pants
White t-shirt #2
Khaki pants

Black pants
Green t-shirt
Khaki pants

Black pants
Red t-shirt
Khaki pants
b. 12.5%

5. a.
True
True
False
True
True
False
False

True
True
False
False
True
False
False

a. i. 12.5% ii. 37.5% iii. 12.5%

6. a.   i. 12.5% ii. 37.5% iii. 25% iv. 87.5% v. 75%

b. 50% c. 50% d. 50% e. 37.5%
7. 1 2 3 4 5 6
Red R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6
Blue B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6
Green G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6
Yellow Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6
Orange O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 O6
8. d
9. a. 32 b. 64 c. 1296
10. a. 100% b. 37.5%
11. b
2 6 6
12. a. b. d.
49 49 49
9 1 5 35
13. a. = b. c. d. 1
36 4 36 36
3 1 1 4 2 4 1
14. a. = b. c. = d. =
12 4 2 12 3 12 3
15. a.
+ 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
b. The diagonals in the sample space are repeating numbers. Also, 7 is the outcome that shows up the most, and each
outcome further away from 7 has a reduced chance of occurring.

TOPIC 13 Relative frequency and probability 27

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 c. Sum of two dice 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Probability 1 1 1 1 5 1 5 1 1 1 1
36 18 12 9 36 6 36 9 12 18 36
d. The probabilities on either side of the 7 decrease at the same rate.
16. a.
− 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 0 1 2 3 4 5
2 1 0 1 2 3 4
3 2 1 0 1 2 3
4 3 2 1 0 1 2
5 4 3 2 1 0 1
6 6 4 3 2 1 0
12 1 28 7
b. = c. = d. No
36 3 36 9
17. a, b. Person 2
Rock Paper Scissors
Scissors SR SP SS
Person 1 Paper PR PP PS
Rock RR RP RS
2 2 2
c. i. ii. iii.
9 9 9
d. Yes
e. i. Person 2
Rock Paper Scissors Dynamite
Scissors SR SP SS SD
Paper PR PP PS PD
Person 1
Rock RR RP RS RD
Dynamite DR DP DS DD
ii. No
2 1
iii. P(Rock wins) = =
16 8
2 1
P(Paper wins) = =
16 8
4 1
P(Scissors win) = =
16 4
4 1
P(Dynamite wins) = =
16 4
Scissors and dynamite are twice as likely to win as rock and paper.
18. a. 6
b. No. There are still six paths, even if we omit home from the journey. Since there is only one choice to go from the library
to home, the outcomes do not change.
19. a. P2
P1
P2
P2
P3
P4
P4
P2
P5
P6
P6
P6
P7
P8
P8
P2
P9
P10
P10
P10
P11
P12
P12
P10
P13
P14
P14
P14
P15
P16
P16

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 b. You will need to look at their past competition history, injuries and many other factors to determine the probability of who
will have the best chance of winning the tournament. Even if you have done extensive analysis, you have a low probability
of determining the winner.
c. No. Tennis players have different physical and mental skill sets, experience, fitness, and injuries, which affect every
performance. Every day the probability of who will win changes.
20. H
H
T
1
H
T
T

H
H
T
2
H
T
T

T
H
T
3
H
T
T

H
H
T
4
H
T
T

H
H
T
5
H
T
T

H
H
T
6
H
T
T

21. Ice-cream
Pudding
Beef
Cake
Fruit
Ice-cream
Pudding
Fish
Cake
Fruit
Ice-cream
Pudding
Vegetarian
Cake
Fruit

TOPIC 13 Relative frequency and probability 29

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 22. a. + 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12

10 5 9 1
b. i. = ii. =
36 18 36 4
23. a. Ceramics b. i. 20% ii. 4%
Drama
Auslan Environmental Science
Korean
Practical Music
Ceramics
Drama
German Environmental Science
Korean
Practical Music
Ceramics
Drama
Indonesian Environmental Science
Korean
Practical Music
Ceramics
Drama
Japanese Environmental Science
Korean
Practical Music
Ceramics
Drama
Mandarin Environmental Science
Korean
Practical Music
1
24. a Lamb Baklava b.
stirfry 24
Mousse
Baklava
Chicken
curry Mousse
Steamed
dumpling Baklava
Kebabs
Mousse
Mixed Baklava
vegetables
with rice Mousse
Lamb Baklava
stirfry
Mousse
Baklava
Chicken
curry Mousse
Leek and potato
Baklava
pancake Kebabs
Mousse
Mixed Baklava
vegetables
with rice Mousse
Lamb Baklava
stirfry
Mousse
Baklava
Chicken
curry Mousse
Grilled
Baklava
eggplant Kebabs
Mousse
Mixed Baklava
vegetables
with rice Mousse

21
25. a.
36
21
b.
36

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 Exercise 13.4 Experimental probability
13
1. a. Mandy’s simulation:
20
47
Sophia’s simulation:
100
a. Mandy’s simulation shows a higher probability of perfect weather days, but Sophia’s simulation is likely to be more
reliable as there are a higher number of coin tosses.
3
2. a. b. 30 batteries
50
52 13 155 31 145 29
3. a. = b. = c. =
300 75 300 60 300 60
17
4.
20
5. c
6. Answers will vary.
7. a. 35% b. 40%
8. Answers may vary.
9. a. 0.1245 b. 0.0747 c. 0.3651
10. Yes. It is too expensive to check every computer for every possible fault. A random number generator will allow the manufac-
turer to gain insight into the probability of a computer having a fault.
3 1 1
11. a. i. ii. iii.
11 11 11
b. Answers will vary.
c. Answers will vary. You could improve the accuracy by using the random number generator to test more days. As more data
is obtained, your results will become closer and closer to the theoretical probability.
12. Answers will vary. Example answers are shown below.
a. Difficult. There are helicopter simulators that train pilots for emergencies, but human nature is difficult to predict.
b. Easy
c. Difficult. Every car is different, and determining exactly the number of kilometers, or even an approximation of when a car
will have mechanical problems, is almost impossible because so many variables are involved.
d. Difficult. Insurance actuaries have statistics on the average number of accidents that a person can have in a lifetime. They
base their insurance premiums on these probabilities, but the statistics are just averages.
e. Easy
13. a. 440 domestic students b. Answers will vary.
14. a. i.38% ii. 62%
b. No. When a coin is only flipped 100 times, it is unlikely that the theoretical probability of 50% for Heads or Tails will
eventuate.
c. According to the law of large numbers, as the number of trials increases, the gap between the experimental probability and
the theoretical probability decreases.
15. a–c. Answers will vary.
16. d Yes. Since it is a random experiment, and only 50 experiments are executed, everyone should have different results.
17. e Approximately 33
18. a. i. 1 or 2 times ii. 10 times iii. Approximately 167 times
b. You could get the exact theoretical probability, but it would be unlikely if you did the experiment more than once. In order
to obtain the theoretical probability consistently, you would need to run the experiment an infinite amount of times.
19. Answers will vary.
20. Answers will vary.
21. Answers will vary.
22. a. 100 times
b. There are not enough trials to decide whether the die is loaded, although the trend suggests that it might be. There is a
large difference between the frequencies of 1 and 6. (The numbers 1 and 6 are on opposite sides of a standard die, so a
weight on the 1 side would tend to make 6 show up more often.)

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 23. a. No. Tennis is a game with many variables that can alter the probabilities of a player winning or losing. The probability of a
particular player winning a tennis match will almost never be 50%.
b. Answers will vary but could include fitness of player, weather, injuries, state of mind, amount of practice or coaching.
c. For each variable that is appropriate in determining a players’ tennis success, you would need to apply a mathematical
weight according to your belief of that variable’s significance in winning a tennis match. In addition, you would need to
give each player a numeric rating for each variable. A higher rating would represent more proficiency in that skill, and a
lower rating less proficiency.
  However, even with this system, it is unlikely that you would be able to predict the winner of every match. The problem
with predicting winners in tennis or any sport is that it is very difficult to determine the significant variables and their
correct mathematical values. Applying numbers to represent the players’ level of proficiency in each of these variables adds
to the complexity of the problem.

Exercise 13.5 Review

1. a. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
b. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q, r, s, t, u, v, w, x, y, z`
c. 1 winning ticket, 99 losing tickets
d. 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20, 22, 24, 26, 28, 30, 32, 34, 36, 38, 40, 42, 44, 46, 48, 50
2. a. Impossible b. Most likely c. Impossible d. Impossible
3. Answers will vary.
4. a. × 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1 2 3 4 5 6
2 2 4 6 8 10 12
3 3 6 9 12 15 18
4 4 8 12 16 20 24
5 5 10 15 20 25 30
6 6 12 18 24 30 36
b. 6 and 12
c. 1, 4, 9, 16, 25, 36
5. a. − 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 0 1 2 3 4 5
2 1 0 1 2 3 4
3 2 1 0 1 2 3
4 3 2 1 0 1 2
5 4 3 2 1 0 1
6 6 4 3 2 1 0
b. 1
c. 5 and 6
1
6. a.
6
b. The complement is the set { 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 } .
5
c.
6
6 1
7. a. =
36 6
30 5
b. =
36 6
c. No. The probability of the original event is a smaller probability, and thus requires less counting.
8. 90%
7 44
9. a. 108 b. c.
51 51
13 19
d. e.
51 34

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 10. Ingredient 2 Ingredient 3
Ingredient 1
Ingredient 3 Ingredient 2

Ingredient 1 Ingredient 3
Ingredient 2
Ingredient 3 Ingredient 1

FS
Ingredient 1 Ingredient 2
Ingredient 3

O
Ingredient 2 Ingredient 1
1

O
11. a. 12 b.
3
12. a. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

PR
H H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8
T T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8
b. 6.25%

E
c. No. They all only have a 6.25% of success.
13. The three most probable results are 6, 7 and 8.

G
1 2 12 10
14. a. b. c. d.
13 13 13 13
PA
89 276
15. a. b.
499 499
16. a. 100%
b. 10 people
D

c. No. This is the estimated number of people and is not a guaranteed amount. It is likely that the amount will be slightly
above or below this.
TE

d. Probably not. A sample of 1000 is relatively large, and you would expect that the experimental probabilities at this scale
would be approaching the theoretical probabilities.
17. a. Answers will vary but could include:
EC

i. the latest shark attack data in Australia

ii. the number of surfers in Australia
iii. the surfing habits of surfers in Australia: every day, once a week, etc.
iv. the prevalence of baitfish
R

v. the surf breaks’ vicinity to shark breeding grounds.

R

b. Easy: i, vi
c. Difficult: ii, iii, v
O

d. No. There are too many variables. The variables that can be obtained may not be accurate. There may be some variables
that science is not aware of.
C

18. According to the law of large numbers, this result is not likely; however, there is a possibility it could occur.
19. a. 2 A’s b. 3 F’s
N

20. Yes. Each free throw is an independent event. Therefore, the player still has an 80% chance of making the basket. However,
there is 20% chance that the player could miss.
U

21. a. 56%
b. The theoretical probability is 50% for a head. The coin has only been tossed 50 times, but as the coin is tossed more times
the result will close in on the theoretical probability.
22. a. 1 2 3 4 5 6
H H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6
T T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6
1
b.
12

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 23. a.
Like brand Dislike brand
A A

Like brand Dislike brand Like brand Dislike brand

B B B B
b. i. 25% ii. 25% iii. 50%
24. a. i. Either 1 or 2 ii. 25 iii. Approximately 833
b. No, these are estimated numbers calculated from the theoretical probabilities. As the experiment is carried out more times,
the experimental probabilities will approach the theoretical probabilities. There is a slight chance in any experiment that
you may obtain the theoretical probability, but it is unlikely.
25. You could run your random number generator using the numbers 1–5. These numbers would represent A, B, C, D, E
respectively in the multiple-choice questions. You would run this simulation 40 times.
26. a. Blue, green, yellow
b. P(B) = 34%
P(G) = 46%
P(Y) = 20%
c. Run the experiment more times (e.g. 10 000 times).
1 2
27. a. b. c. Answers will vary.
3 3
28. No. The theoretical probability of rolling 3 in three rolls is 50%. However, this theoretical probability may or may not occur.
29. 96.16%
30. Answers will vary.

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