INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY

STAT-102
Session #1
Dr. Muqaddas Javed
[email protected]
Department of Statistics, University of Gujrat
 Probability has two basic
meaning:
(i) a quantitative measure
Probability as a general concept can be defined as the of uncertainty and
chance of an event occurring. (ii) a measure of degree
of belief in a particular
statement of problem.
Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning
numerical descriptions of how likely an event is to
occur, or how likely it is that a proposition is true.

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BASIC CONCEPTS
Experiment, Trial, Outcome, Random Experiment

• Experiment – a planned activity or process whose results yield a set of data.

• Trial – A single performance of an experiment is called a trial.

• Outcome – The results obtained from an experiment or a trial is called an outcome.

• Random Experiment – An experiment which produces different results even though it is

repeated a large number of times under essentially similar conditions, is called random
experiment. Random experiment has three properties:
 The experiment can be repeated, practically or theoretically, any number of times.
 The experiment always has two or more possible outcomes.
 The outcome of each repetition is unpredictable.
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SAMPLE SPACE
SAMPLE SPACE

A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.

A set consisting of all possible outcomes that can result from a random
experiment (real or conceptual), is defined to be a sample space for the
experiment and is denoted by the letter S
Some sample spaces for various probability experiments are shown here.

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 Since each die can land in six different ways, and
two dice are rolled, the sample space can be
presented by a rectangular array, as shown in
below figure . The sample space is the
list of pairs of numbers in the chart.

ROLLING DICE
THE SAMPLE SPACE FOR
ROLLING TWO DICE.
 Since there are 4 suits (hearts, clubs, diamonds, and
spades) and 13 cards for each suit
(ace through king), there are 52 outcomes in the
sample space.

DRAWING CARDS
THE SAMPLE SPACE FOR
DRAWING ONE CARD FROM AN
ORDINARY DECK OF CARDS.
TREE DIAGRAM
A tree diagram is a device consisting of line
segments emanating from a starting point and
also from the outcome point. It is used to
determine all possible outcomes of a
probability experiment.

Gender of Children

a tree diagram to find the sample space

for the gender of three children in a
family

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EVENTS AND TYPES
 An event is an individual outcome or any
number of outcomes (sample points) of a
random experiment.
In set terminology, any subset of a sample space S of
EVENTS the experiment is called an event.

If S = {1,2,3,4,5,6} then A={1,3,5} be the event.

 An event that contains exactly one sample
point, is defined a simple event.
A compound event contains more than one sample
point.

SIMPLE AND if a die is rolled and a 6 shows, this result is called an outcome,
since it is a result of a single trial. An event with one outcome is
COMPOUND EVENT called a simple event. The event of getting an odd number when
a die is rolled is called a compound event, since it consists of
three outcomes or three simple events.
TYPES OF EVENTS

Two Event A and B of a single experiment are said

Mutually Exclusive events to be mutually exclusive or disjoint if and only if
they cannot both occur at the same time.

Exhaustive Events Events are said to be collectively exhaustive, when the union of
mutually exclusive events is the entire sample space S.

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TYPES OF EVENTS

Two Event A and B are said to be equally likely,

when one event is as likely to occur as the other.
Equally Likely Events Head is as likely to appear as the tail if a fair
coin tossed/flapped.

An event A is said to occur if and only if the outcome of the

experiment corresponds to some element of A. The event “not-A”
Complementary Events is called the complementary event. The complement of “Pass” is
“Fail” in an exam, “Tail” is the complement of “Head” when a
coin is tossed.

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Representation of Event with Venn Diagram
Venn diagrams are often used to identify the probability of events occurring. They are
helpful in sorting a list of data into sets, but sometimes Venn diagrams are drawn
showing the number of members in each section, rather than the individual members.

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Representation of Event with Venn Diagram
Venn diagrams are often used to identify the probability of events occurring. They are
helpful in sorting a list of data into sets, but sometimes Venn diagrams are drawn
showing the number of members in each section, rather than the individual members.

5 1,3,5

Simple Event Compound Event

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Representation of Event with Venn Diagram
Venn diagrams are often used to identify the probability of events occurring. They are
helpful in sorting a list of data into sets, but sometimes Venn diagrams are drawn
showing the number of members in each section, rather than the individual members.

Not Mutually Exclusive Events Mutually Exclusive Events

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Representation of Event with Venn Diagram
Venn diagrams are often used to identify the probability of events occurring. They are
helpful in sorting a list of data into sets, but sometimes Venn diagrams are drawn
showing the number of members in each section, rather than the individual members.

Exhaustive Events

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Representation of Event with Venn Diagram
Venn diagrams are often used to identify the probability of events occurring. They are
helpful in sorting a list of data into sets, but sometimes Venn diagrams are drawn
showing the number of members in each section, rather than the individual members.

Complementary event

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CLASSICAL PROBABILITY
Classical probability assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to occur.

The classical definition has the following shortcomings:

i. This definition is said to involve circular reasoning as the term equally likely really means equally
probable. This probability is defined by introducing concepts that presume a prior knowledge of the
meaning of probability.
ii. This definition is not applicable when the assumption of equally likely does not hold.
iii. This definition becomes vague when the number of possible outcomes may be infinite.
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Rules of Probability

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APPLYING THE CONCEPTS

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QUESTIONS

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ANSWERS

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APPLYING THE CONCEPTS
QUESTIONS
ANSWERS
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