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Pest monitoring and forecasting

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DOI: 10.1079/9781845938086.0041

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 3 Pest Monitoring and Forecasting

Yenumula G. Prasad and Mathyam Prabhakar

Division of Crop Sciences, Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculure,
Hyderabad, India

3.1 Introduction models have been developed to support

various aspects of crop management in
Monitoring for pests is a fundamental first general and plant protection in particular
step in creating a proper integrated pest and are widely in use in developed
management (IPM) programme. Pests are countries. A decision support system inte-
monitored through a variety of monitoring grates a user-friendly front end to often
tools such as pheromone traps, light traps, complex models, knowledge bases, expert
coloured sticky traps, pitfall traps and systems and database technologies. Decision
suction traps. The trap capture data serves support systems have emerged as essential
several purposes: (i) ecological studies tools to bridge the gap between science-
(Pathak, 1968; Crummay and Atkinson, based technology and end-users who make
1997; Hirao et al., 2008); (ii) tracking insect day-to-day management decisions. Web-
migration (Drake et al., 2002); (iii) timing of based models and decision support systems
pest arrivals into agroecosystems (Klueken are becoming popular and in future may
et al., 2009); (iv) initiating field scouting become an abosolute requirement for local,
and sampling procedures; (v) timing of regional/area-wide and international imple-
pesticide applications (Lewis, 1981; Merril mentation of IPM systems (Waheed et al.,
et al., 2010); (vi) starting date or biofix for 2003). This chapter undertakes a selective
phenology models (Knutson and Muegge, review of published work on insect pest
2010); and (vii) prediction of later gener- monitoring and forecasting and therefore is
ations based on size of earlier generations neither comprehensive nor exhaustive in its
(Zalucki and Furlong, 2005). Forecast for coverage.
pests is an important component of the IPM
strategy. Early warnings and forecasts based
on biophysical methods provide lead time 3.2 Pest Monitoring through Traps
for managing impending pest attacks and
can thus minimize crop loss, optimize pest Among the various methods and devices
control and reduce the cost of cultivation. used in pest monitoring, the most popular
Prevailing and anticipated weather and widely used are sex pheromone traps
information can help in crop planning and for selective monitoring of individual flying
scheduling spray and farm operations to species and light traps for flying species
maximize crop yields and returns. Computer that are attracted to light. While adult males

© CAB International 2012. Integrated Pest Management

(eds D.P. Abrol and U. Shankar) 41
42 Y.G. Prasad and M. Prabhakar

are mostly caught in sex pheromone traps, The timing of adult male catches in the
adults of both sexes are trapped in light trap indicates the start of the pest flight
traps. activity in the area. This information is
important for some pests, as it is used as the
biofix date for accumulation of heat units
3.2.1 Sex pheromone traps above a base temperature in phenology
models or sustained first flight for others
Pheromones are chemicals for species- (Knutson and Muegge, 2010).
specific communication. Most often, these Sex pheromone traps are useful for
sex pheromones are produced by females to monitoring difficult pests that evade early
attract a mate and are most well known detection of economic damage when a trap
for adult Lepidoptera. Commercially pro- catch is used to calculate: (i) growing
duced by synthesizing and blending the degree-days (GDD) for onset and completion
appropriate chemicals, the sex pheromones of moth emergence (Spear-O’Mara and
are loaded into dispensers, which can be Allen, 2007; Knutson and Muegge, 2010);
placed in traps of various designs for (ii) starting dates of egg hatch (Isaacs and
deployment in agriculture, horticulture, van Timmeren, 2009); and (iii) onset of first
forestry and storage. Pheromone traps are larval damage (Knutson and Muegge, 2010).
the most popular and widely used tools for A linear relationship between male catches
pest detection and population monitoring. in sex pheromone traps and GDD is possible
Pheromone traps have been exploited for after appropriate transformation of variables
three useful applications: (i) monitoring; (ii) (Gallardo et al., 2009), and in some cases
mass trapping; and (iii) mating disruption. variability is better explained by including
The most important and widespread other variables related to density of host
practical applications of sex pheromones in plants or suitable plant parts (Spear-O’Mara
pest management have been reviewed and Allen, 2007). Validation of the degree-
recently (Witzgall et al., 2010). Population day model is done by comparing the timing
monitoring relates trap captures to the of predicted and observed phenological
abundance of, or to the damage caused by, events through field scouting and damage
an insect species. The numbers caught over assessments, and estimating the prediction
time have been used for initiating field accuracy and error (Knutson and Muegge,
scouting for egg laying, and assessing the 2010).
need for timing of control measures based Monitoring through a network of sites
on action thresholds (Wall et al., 1987; is most useful for studying spatial
Gurrero and Reddy, 2001). However, traps distributions of pests, early detection of
do not always accurately indicate the infestations and identification of hot-spot
overall pest pressure for use as thresholds locations to initiate appropriate manage-
for action, as trap catches are influenced by ment interventions on a spatial scale.
the efficacy of the lure, the dispenser (Arn Monitoring at the regional level improves
et al., 1997), the trap design (Fadamiro, the reliability of population monitoring for
2004; Spear-O’Mara and Allen, 2007) and implementation of appropriate area-wide
the trap location (Reardon et al., 2006; IPM systems (Ayalew et al., 2008). Moth
Gallardo et al., 2009). Pheromone traps are captures in a network of pheromone trap
the most effective and sensitive enough to sites established across the Canadian
detect low-density populations. They are prairies, when used in conjunction with
therefore handy tools for tracking invasive backward trajectories provided by meteor-
species in the establishment phase (El- ological services, were helpful in providing
Sayed et al., 2006; Liebhold and Tobin, early detection of diamondback moth
2008) or for population monitoring to infestations (Hopkinson and Soroka, 2010).
determine the extent of an outbreak area Peak trap captures are often correlated with
and the effectiveness of eradication cam- associated weather to identify positive or
paigns (Cannon et al., 2004). negative influences of weather parameters
 Pest Monitoring and Forecasting 43

on moth activity and pest build-up (Gwadi beetles from overwintering using a degree-
et al., 2006; Reardon et al., 2006; day model (Zou et al., 2004) and for
Monobrullah et al., 2007, Prasad et al., prediction of population sizes based on
2008). However, trap catches and weather moth catches (Raimondo et al., 2004). Long-
may not necessarily serve as predictors of term light-trap data is highly useful in
the future abundance of certain species in studying the seasonal dynamics of pests.
cropping regions (Baker et al., 2010). For example, regression analyses have
indicated that the spring generation of two
species of Helicoverpa in eastern cropping
3.2.2 Light traps zones in Australia could be related to
rainfall in putative inland source areas
Insect attraction to light has been exploited (Zalucki and Furlong, 2005). Light-trap
for monitoring insect populations with a catch data is also useful for validation of
view to providing early warning of the simulation model outputs (Reji and
presence of pests, as well as for many other Chander, 2008).
uses. Light traps have been widely used for
monitoring the population dynamics of
Lepidoptera and Coleoptera (Wolda, 1992; 3.2.3 Monitoring of migration
Watt and Woiwod, 1999; Kato et al., 2000).
When compared with other sampling Pedgley (1993) discussed and illustrated
methods, light-trap sampling was found to the role of forecasting and preventive
be more efficient for lepidopteran popu- management strategies from a variety of
lation dynamics (Raimondo et al., 2004). taxa and geographical areas, emphasizing
However, many factors affect catches of the need to understand the effects of
insects in light traps (Bowden, 1982). Trap weather on migration. Modelling migration
design, the light source and its energy, and patterns of pests is useful to know their
the attraction efficiency under certain arrival time, identify periods with migration
conditions all contribute to sampling errors. potential in order to time field evaluations,
The effects of weather conditions and and to provide information on the size of
moonlight on light-trap catches are well migrating populations. Modelling studies
documented. For example, trap efficiency using multi-location long-term suction trap
for Lepidoptera is positively correlated data have indicated that temperature, global
with temperature and the thickness of cloud radiation and wind speed have a major
cover, and negatively correlated with wind impact on the flight activity of cereal aphids
speed, precipitation and the fullness of the immigrating on to winter cereal crops
moon on the trap night (Bowden, 1982; during the early autumn and spring seasons
Dent and Pawar, 1988; Yela and Holyoak, (Klueken et al., 2009). A network of light
1997; Butler et al., 1999). The effect of traps along with radars was used for
weather factors on the abundance or species studying the seasonal migration of cotton
richness of Coleoptera captured by light bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera Hübner)
traps has been reported (Rodriguez-Del- (Feng et al., 2009). Furthermore, with
Bosque, 1998). automatic systems for monitoring, retrieving
Networks of light traps have been used and analysing data from remote insect
for year-round monitoring of moth species monitoring radars and meteorological
and the data used to assess the magnitude equipment, it has been possible to generate
and reasons for seasonal, annual and long- daily statistical summaries and graphical
term faunal changes and their population representations of the migration activity
dynamics in Britain (Lewis, 1980) and India observed by the radar during the previous
(Anon., 2009), and for weekly larval night in terms of intensity, altitude, speed
forecasts on cereal crops in Africa (Odiyo, and displacement direction of the
1979). Light-trap captures have been used migrations, as well as the orientation, size
to predict the emergence date of adult and wing-beat frequencies of the migrants,
44 Y.G. Prasad and M. Prabhakar

together with the surface weather con- influencing pest populations. Pests of host
ditions, at each site. This data was then plants in undisturbed habitats such as
available over the Internet to users the next forestry have their natural cycles in
day. Such a network has been used in inland response to their ecosystem interactions
eastern Australia since 1999 in studies of and are most likely to attain equilibrium
the spatial ecology of mobile insect points in their population levels. Pests
populations and of the utility of migration- of agroecosystems, however, experience
monitoring information for operational pest rapidly changing environments due to
forecasting (Drake et al., 2002). Similarly, changes in cropping systems and a host of
analysis of the migration waves of rice management interventions. As a result,
brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens crop pests show a greater degree of
Stål) during June to July into South Korea instability in population levels. Pests vary
using the boundary layer atmospheric in their biology and in their response to
(BLAYER) model and geographical infor- their environment. Pests in colder climates
mation system (GIS) explained the spurt in in general have discrete generations and
light-trap catch data during late July (Zhu et resting phases in their life cycles, while in
al., 2000). the warmer climates, most species exhibit
polymodal patterns of occurrences, with
several generations in a year, resulting from
3.3 Pest Forecasting continuous breeding opportunities and
food availability. On a global scale, seasonal
In pest forecasting, several intrinsic attri- temperatures and rainfall patterns constitute
butes of the insects and the determining major factors that determine the distri-
environmental and host factors need to be butions of organisms (Birch, 1957). Tropical
considered. Most pest forecast models take insects generally have the same annual
into account the phenology of the herbivore variability as insects from temperate zones,
and its host. Near real-time pest incidence but insect populations from dry areas, such
data coupled with remote sensing and GIS as temperate or tropical regions, tend to
tools facilitate early warning of impending fluctuate more than those from wet areas
pest build-up in a temporal and spatial (Wolda, 1978). The effect of environmental
perspective. In addition, collection and stresses such as weather on insect dynamics
analysis of weather data from pest-affected cannot be explained easily. While environ-
areas is an essential input for models. The mental stresses such as drought and tem-
practical application of model outputs is perature fluctuations have been recorded
aided by decision support systems, which preceding insect outbreaks, the precise
are discussed in the following sections. mode of action of these stresses is unknown
(Wallner, 1987).
In nature, pests are regulated by their
3.3.1 Considerations in pest forecast natural enemies: parasitoids, predators and
research pathogens, which are in turn influenced by
biophysical factors (Hence et al., 2007;
Accurate forecasting of pest attacks before Thomson et al., 2010). Therefore, a precise
they actually take place is desired in pest understanding of population dynamics can
control programmes, so that control result from comprehensive ecological
measures can be planned with maximum studies. However, despite our best efforts,
efficiency. Pest dynamics display fluctu- gaps in pest ecological databases remain as
ations in timing and intensity depending on a result of the complexity of interactions
location and season. Mostly, they tend to among the ecosystem components.
fluctuate over a mean level. This average Worldwide, one important outcome
population over time, when computed of understanding population dynamics is
across several years, results from the sum of to aim for a forecasting capability for
action of all positive and negative factors appropriate management decisions. Succes-
 Pest Monitoring and Forecasting 45

sful forecasting techniques are those that 3.3.2 Insect phenology models
are as simple as possible and that are based
on knowledge of the biology and ecology of Insects are incapable of internal temperature
the pests concerned. In temperate regions, regulation and hence their development
these are basically emergence warnings as depends on the temperature to which they
the first of the overwintering eggs hatch or are exposed. Studies of insect population
the first adults emerge from the over- dynamics often involve modelling growth
wintering pupae (Collier et al., 1991; Trnka as a function of ambient temperature. The
et al., 2007). Because of the climatic rate summation methodology has perhaps
regulation, most emergence takes place over proved to be the most viable approach to
a relatively short period of time and is not such modelling (Stinner et al., 1974).
too difficult to monitor. In the tropical parts The most common development rate
of the world, where weather conditions model, often called degree-day summation,
permit continuous breeding of pests most of assumes a linear relationship between
the time, the warning is generally for the development rate and temperature between
first occurrence of the pest in the crop lower and upper development thresholds
(Krishnaiah et al., 1997), or sometimes the (Allen, 1976). This method works well for
recording of immigrants from an adjoining optimum temperatures (Ikemoto, 2005).
area for serious pests with a recorded The linear model assumes that rates are
history of economic damage (Otuka et al., proportional to temperature, and as
2005). GIS technology is useful for amounts are integrals of rates, the amount
interpolation of the spatial distribution and of development is the integral of the
spread of crop pests and diseases based on temperature (or a linear function of it) along
multiple factors including weather con- a time axis and has units of temperature
ditions (Wu et al., 2008). Quantitative and time (e.g. degree-days). Temperature-
seasonal studies are required over several dependent development in insects can also
years to determine seasonal range, vari- be approached using developmental time.
ability in numbers and geographical distri- The rate of development is traditionally
bution (Hill, 2008). Such studies must use utilized because rate models were created
sampling methods appropriate to the pest from biochemical and biophysical prop-
and its abundance (Cullen et al., 2000), and erties (Sharpe and DeMichele, 1977),
the seasonal counts should be related to although some complications can arise
climate and topographical data (Ferguson et when using rate instead of time (Kramer et
al., 2002). By sampling immature stages of al., 1991). Most of the earlier models failed
insect pests, it is possible to monitor these to take into consideration variation between
pests and arrive at approximate estimations individual insects in their rate of develop-
of the numbers expected in later stages ment, which is responsible for the spread of
(Finch, 1989). activity of a pest (Regniere, 1984; Phelps et
Pests that survive on alternative hosts al., 1993). Significant models for modelling
may be sampled so that an estimate of their the effects of variable temperatures on the
probable pest density on the main crop can development of individual insects within a
be made. This method has been applied to given population deal with mean rate
the peach-potato aphid and the black bean versus temperature relationships (Wagner
aphid, which are often sampled as over- et al., 1984a) and distribution of develop-
wintering eggs on spindle trees (Leather, ment times (Wagner et al., 1984b, 1985).
1993). The best spraying date for many Instead of treating rate summation as a
Lepidoptera is determined by sampling deterministic quantity, efforts have been
eggs on the crop. For example, in many made to consider rates as random variables
parts of Africa, the major cotton bollworms (Stinner et al., 1975). Stochastic approaches
are examined in the field for immature to modelling insect development vary in
stages (Javaid, 1990). the choice of random variable to be
46 Y.G. Prasad and M. Prabhakar

modelled and in the form of the frequency square error and successful convergence
distribution applied to the random variable when 14 insect developmental models,
(Sharpe et al., 1977; Curry et al., 1978). both deterministic and distributed, were
The coefficient of variation of the rate tested (Ma and Bechinski, 2008) using
distributions is relatively independent of population model design system software
temperature (Sharpe et al., 1977), indicating developed by Logan and Weber (1989). Ma
that a single temperature-independent (2010) applied a survival analysis approach
distribution of the normalized rate of to model development of Russian wheat
development adequately describes the aphid in relation to temperature and plant
distribution at all temperature, which has growth stages.
been validated for 80% of 194 sets of Phenology models help predict the
published data on 113 species of insects time of events in an insect’s development
and mites (Shaffer, 1983). Insect species and are important analytical tools for
that exhibit seasonality generally have predicting, evaluating and understanding
resting phases – diapause or aestivation – in the dynamics of pest populations in agro-
their life cycles, which can be accommodated ecosystems under a variety of environmental
in Monte Carlo simulation modelling conditions. Accurate predictions, however,
(Phelps et al., 1993). require accurate recording of the tem-
As some temperatures are lethal to peratures experienced by the organisms
organisms, it is obvious that development (Morgan, 1991) as well as the duration of
must be a non-linear temperature function development (Danks, 2000).
at the temperature extremes. Non-linear Degree-day models (Higley et al., 1986)
development rate functions based on have long been used as part of decision
enzyme kinetics were developed to describe support systems to help growers predict
high-temperature (Johnson and Lewin, spray timing or when to begin pest scouting
1946) and low-temperature (Hultin, 1955) (Welch et al., 1978). Phenology models are
inhibition, as well as both extremes (Sharpe also used as one component of risk analysis
and DeMichele, 1977). Another non-linear for predicting exotic pest establishment
model of temperature-dependent develop- (Baker, 1991; Jarvis and Baker, 2001).
ment (Stinner et al., 1974) utilized a A well-known example is the DYMEX
function that is a simple sigmoid curve with modelling package (Su and Fa, 2002;
an inverted relationship when the Yonow et al., 2004; Stephens and Dentener,
temperature is above the optimum. This 2005). CLIMEX, although not strictly a
model, as originally given, assumed sym- phenology model, uses some developmental
metry about the optimum temperature but requirements for risk assessment (Sutherst
can be easily modified for asymmetry. The et al., 1991, 1999, 2000). Another example
non-linear model by Logan et al. (1976) is the web-based North Carolina State
uses an equation that is asymmetric about University APHIS Plant Pest Forecast
the optimum but becomes negative for very (NAPPFAST) modelling system, which links
high temperatures. Schoolfield et al. (1981) daily climate and historical weather data
modified the model of Sharpe and with biological models to produce
DeMichele to enhance its overall utility and customized risk maps for phytosanitary
to simplify parameter estimation. As risk assessments (Borchert and Magarey,
pointed out by Worner (1992), the 2005). Resources like the Crop Protection
interaction of cyclical temperatures with Compendium (CAB International, 2004)
non-linear development can introduce offer insect development summaries, while
significant deviations from the linear the University of California Statewide IPM
development rate model, especially in the programme lists development data for
low- and high-temperature regions of the insects on their website (http://www.ipm.
development rate function. Stinner’s model ucdavis.edu/MODELS) for use in degree-
gave the best fit for Russian wheat aphid day models. An Insect Development
developmental rate data as judged by mean Database containing the developmental
 Pest Monitoring and Forecasting 47

requirements for over 500 insect species are not applicable to insects with over-
has been created (Nietschke et al., 2007). lapping generations (Varley and Gradwell,
Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software, 1970). Life table analysis was also utilized
a generic open-source computer-aided tool, to model both the development and
facilitates the development of phenology survival of the Russian wheat aphid (Ma
models and prediction of pest activity in and Bechinski, 2008). Ecological studies do
specific agroecologies (Sporleder et al., not often lead to reliable forecasts of the
2009). time and size of population peaks because
of gaps in the ecological databases such as
short-range dispersal, overwintering be-
3.3.3 Life tables and population models haviour, colonization patterns and age-
specific mortality including inter- and
Ecological life tables are one of the tools intraspecific competition (Kogan and
most useful in the study of population Turnipseed, 1987).
dynamics of insects having discrete
generations. Such tables record a series of
sequential measurements that reveal 3.3.4 Pest simulation models and
population changes throughout the life decision support systems
cycle of a species in its natural environment.
Conventionally, a life table is a systematic Simulation models based on mathematical
tabular presentation of survival and descriptions of biological data as influenced
mortality in a population for a known by the environment are more easily applied
cohort of individuals (Morris and Miller, across locations and environments. Com-
1954). Long-term data from carefully puter programs or software to run these
planned population studies in which all the models facilitate the practical application
relevant factors have been measured of these models in understanding popu-
accurately are important for constructing lation dynamics and dissemination of pest
population models that adequately relate to forecasts for timely pest management
biological reality. The goal of life-table decisions (Coulson and Saunders, 1987).
analysis is to develop a population model Simulation approaches offer flexibility for
that mimics reality. Apart from generating testing, refinement, sensitivity analysis as
population estimates, this analysis is best well as field validation of developed models
done by careful identification and measure- over a wide range of environmental
ment of the independent factors causing conditions. Thorough descriptions of
mortality such as parasitoids, predators, cropping systems being managed or studied
pathogens and weather factors. are needed to explain the interactions
From the life-table studies, it is among pests, plants and the environment
possible to identify the key factor (Colbach, 2010). Systems models or other
responsible for increases and decreases in prediction schemes can be used with
numbers from generation to generation appropriate biological, environmental, eco-
(Morris, 1963; Varley and Gradwell, 1970). nomic or other inputs to analyse the most
A multiple-regression approach involving effective management actions, based on
all the survival components gives greater acceptable control, sustainability and as-
emphasis to the interaction between sessment of economic or other risks (Strand,
different age intervals (Mott, 1967). The 2000).
equations for different mortalities are In an effort to improve Helicoverpa
combined into a model to predict either the management in Australia, a comprehensive
generation-to-generation changes in an population dynamics model (HEAPS:
insect population density or the average HElicoverpa Armigera and Punctigera
level around which these changes take Simulation) has been developed, which
place. The same analytical approaches incorporates the spatial structure of the
used for insects having discrete generations habitat and pest population and explicitly
48 Y.G. Prasad and M. Prabhakar

simulates the adult movement within a and international implementation of IPM

regional cropping system (Fitt et al., 1995). systems (Waheed et al., 2003). In the USA
This model incorporates modules based on and the Netherlands, commercial firms are
adult movement, oviposition, develop- applying mesoscale modelling techniques
ment, survival and host phenology, and to forecast insect development and produce
estimates the population in each unit of a gridded products for regional and on-farm
grid (Dillon and Fitt, 1990). The planning and pest management (Strand,
EntomoLOGIC decision tool was derived 2000).
from the SIRATAC decision support system A decision support system has been
deployed by the Australian cotton industry developed for forecasting black bean aphid
from 1976 to 1993 to reduce the risk (Aphis fabae) outbreaks in fields of spring-
associated with pest management using sown beans. The system takes into account
chemical pesticides. This was developed the regional forecast and additionally
by the Commonwealth Scientific and information provided by the user on
Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) individual characteristics of the field
in collaboration with the University of and crop such as field shape, size, plant
Western Sydney, Australia (Hearn and density and sowing date, which are used
Bange, 2002). Advances in hand-held to downscale the area forecast to the
computing have resulted in expanding the specific field. The system also contains a
development of CottonLOGIC for use with module for the aphicides that are cleared
Palm OS handhelds for widespread for use on spring beans and calculates the
adoption by cotton growers in Australia economics of application (Knight and
(Bange et al., 2004). Cammell, 1994).
A suite of predictive computer models SOPRA is applied as a decision support
called MORPH has been developed at the system for eight major insect pests of fruit
Horticulture Research International, UK orchards on a local and regional scale in
(Phelps et al., 1999), for use in fruit and Switzerland and southern Germany and has
vegetable crops. Using a multi-generation a wide range of possible applications in the
phenology model, ECAMON, Trnka et al. alpine valleys and north of the Alps
(2007) could explain 70% of the variation in (Samietz et al., 2008). Applying time-
the timing of key developmental stages based varying distributed delay approaches,
on daily weather data. ECAMON simulations phenology models were developed driven
correctly predicted the presence/absence of by solar radiation, air temperature and soil
the European corn borer over a study region temperature on an hourly basis. On the
in the Czech Republic during the 1961– basis of local weather data, the age structure
1990 reference period. It helped to explain of the pest populations is simulated and
the sudden increase in maize infestation crucial events for management activities are
during the unusually warm periods of predicted by the SOPRA system. Phenology is
1991–2000 and it also estimates that this directly linked to a detailed decision
potential niche will expand within the next support system and to extended information
20–30 years. RICEPEST, a model simulating about the pest insects, as well as to the
yield loss due to several rice pests under a registered plant protection products.
range of specific production situations in Through a web interface, the simulation
tropical Asia was developed by the results are made available to consultants
International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) and growers (www.sopra.info). SIMLEP is a
in the Philippines.Validation of the model regional forecasting model used in practice
under field experiments yielded promising for Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa
results (Willocquet et al., 2002). decemlineata) in Germany and Austria on a
Web-based models and decision large scale and in the western part of
support systems are becoming popular and Poland. The SIMLEP decision support system
in future may become an absolute contributed significantly to the improve-
requirement for local, regional/area-wide ment of farmers’ control measures for
 Pest Monitoring and Forecasting 49

L. decemlineata (Jorg et al., 2007) and later ponents could lead to their practical use.
its use expanded to Slovenia (Kos et al., In developed countries, dynamic websites
2009). that include interactive models, GIS-based
In the mid-1990s, CIPRA (Computer decision systems, real-time weather and
Centre for Agricultural Pest Forecasting) market information are rapidly being
software was conceptualized, developed and developed and made available on the
implemented to access, in real-time, weather Internet (http://www.effita.net) to give
data from a network of automated stations. It farmers real-time benefit in crop manage-
allows the user to visualize forecasts for 13 ment.
insects, two diseases, two storage disorders The conventional approaches of using
in addition to the apple crop phenology. empirical models to quantify yield losses
These bioclimatic models, which have been are limited in their scope and application,
developed, implemented and improved over as these are data specific and insensitive to
the last 13 years, vary from a simple degree- variable cropping and pest conditions. Crop
days approach based on air temperature to growth models provide a physiologically
more detailed epidemiological models based based approach to simulate pest damage
on air temperature, relative humidity and and crop interactions. There have been
duration of leaf wetness. Many field many efforts to use crop growth models to
specialists are using these model forecasts simulate the effect of pest damage on crop
along with field pest scouting to provide growth and yield by linking the damage
valuable additional information for decision effect of pest population levels to the
making in pest management and in apple physiological rates and state variables of
storage strategies (Bourgeois et al., 2008). these models. Insect pests and crop
modelling has been discussed in detail by
Boote et al. (1983) and Coulson and
3.3.5 Integration of pest and crop Saunders (1987). A distribution delay
simulation models model including attrition was applied to
simulate population changes in rice leaf-
Crop system models can be used to generate folders. Based on a metabolic pool approach,
information on the status of the crop as leaf-folder feeding and hence leaf mass
influenced by the growing environment and losses to the rice plant were described with
pests, and including different management a generalized functional response model,
options. In practice, there are few examples which is ‘source’ and ‘sink’ driven (Graf
of these models that include all the et al., 1992). Furthermore, this model
necessary components for practical decision stresses the influence of adult migration
making. However, a more practical approach and natural enemies on leaf-folder popu-
has been the development of individual lation dynamics, both of which are
crop and pest components that can be significant and poorly investigated aspects
analysed at the same time to give of the leaf-folder life cycle. Later, a generic
information that can improve decisions. approach to simulate the damage effects of
The development of decision support single or multiple pests was attempted
systems for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT using crop growth models such as CERES-
4 funded by the United States Agency for Rice (which is a part of the DSSAT) in the
International Development (USAID)) has Philippines (Pinnschmidt et al., 1995) and
allowed the rapid assessment of several InfoCrop in India (Chander et al., 2007; Reji
agricultural production systems around et al., 2008; Yadav and Chander, 2010). Pest
the world to facilitate decision making at damage levels from field scouting reports
farm and policy levels. The trend in can be entered and damage is applied to
development of crop system models is to appropriate physiological coupling points
go for the modular approach (http://www. within the crop growth model including
icasa.net). The development of stand-alone leaf area index, stand density, intercepted
decision support systems for pest com- light, photosynthesis, assimilate amount
50 Y.G. Prasad and M. Prabhakar

and translocation rate, growth of different indices based on leaf pigments (Riedell and
plant organs and leaf senescence. Equations Blackmer, 1999; Yang and Cheng, 2001;
and algorithms were developed to describe Prabhakar et al., 2006, 2011). Optical and
competition among multiple pests and to video imaging in near-infrared and
link the computed total damage to the microwave regions were used to quantify
corresponding variables in the crop models. the nocturnal flight behaviour of H.
These approaches provide a basis to explore armigera (Riley et al., 1992). Fitzgerald
dynamic pest and crop interactions in (2000) demonstrated that multispectral
determining pest management strategies remote sensing (MRS) would allow farmers
that minimize yield losses. to detect early infestation of mites in large-
scale cotton fields due to colour shifts and
changes in canopy appearance over time.
3.3.6 Remote sensing for pest monitoring Areas identified on the map could be
and forecasting located with the help of portable GPS
equipment by field scouts to verify the mite
Remote sensing techniques are useful in populations in these areas and recommend
detecting crop stresses such as nutrient regions in the field that require pesticide
deficiency, pest infestation, disease de- application.
velopment and to monitor drought. Plants Remote sensing improves spatial and
may respond to pest and disease stress in a temporal resolution compared with trad-
number of ways, including leaf curling, itional methods for pest monitoring based
wilting, chlorosis or necrosis of photo- on environmental changes (Bhattacharya et
synthetic plant parts, stunted growth and, al., 2007; Jiang et al., 2008; Dutta et al.,
in some cases, a reduction in leaf area due 2008). However, the major limitation in use
to severe defoliation. While many of these of satellite-borne data in pest forewarning is
responses are difficult to quantify visually the timely availability of cloud-free data
with acceptable levels of accuracy, precision with the desired spatial and spectral
and speed, these same plant responses will resolution. Better standardization of aerial
also affect the amount and quality of imagery and accounting for perturbing
electromagnetic radiation reflected from environmental factors will be necessary to
plant canopies. The basic premise here is make remote sensing techniques applicable
that healthy plants give a higher reflectance to early pest detection (Luedeling et al.,
in the near-infrared region and a lower one 2009). In addition, the acquisition of airborne
in the visible region, while the opposite is data is limited to few high-value crops
the situation in the case of diseased plants because of the high costs involved.
(Teng and Close, 1977). Thus, remote
sensing instruments that measure and
record changes in electromagnetic radiation 3.3.7 Agromet networks for operational
may provide a better means of objectively pest forecasting
quantifying biotic stresses than visual
assessment methods. Additionally, remote Farmers are mainly interested in current
sensing can be used repeatedly to collect disease and pest severity data, preferably
sample measurements non-destructively for their localities to aid their decision
and non-invasively (Nilsson, 1995; Yang et making in crop protection. Pest monitoring
al., 2004). data along with complementary weather
Recent advancements in the field of data is crucial to run pest forecast models
remote sensing provide ample scope to use and provide forecasts for operational use.
this technology for pest monitoring and Weather measurements under field
detection (Prabhakar et al., 2012). Riley conditions from several geo-referenced sites
(1989) provided an exhaustive review on in the crop-cultivated regions additionally
the use of remote sensing in entomology. provides spatial information that can be
Pest damage was associated with spectral used for generating pest forecast maps
 Pest Monitoring and Forecasting 51

(Huang et al., 2008). In Bayern (Germany), a validation of pest forecast models and
measuring network of 116 field weather decision support systems, which are crucial
stations is used to estimate the development for the design and implementation of
of pests in relation to weather requirements successful IPM programmes. Models are
based on forecast models and computer- potential tools for synthesizing the available
based decision support systems for near information and knowledge on population
real-time dissemination to farmers dynamics of pests in agroecosystems and
(Tischner, 2000). The results of crop- and natural habitats. The development of long-
horticulture-specific models and decision term monitoring spatial data on crop–pest–
support systems are supplemented by field- weather relationships will narrow the gaps
monitoring data, which then serve as the in knowledge required for reliable
main input for the warning services and are forecasts. Computer-based systems have
disseminated cost-effectively through the increased the speed and accuracy of fore-
Internet (Bugiani et al., 1996; Jorg, 2000). A casting, and decreasing its costs. Recent
computerized national forecasting network developments in information and com-
in apple orchards transmits data from the munication technology offer great scope for
field to system headquarters automatically. wide dissemination and use of pest
The national forecasting network in Turkey forecasts. In the tropics, agroecosystems are
has been expanded and covered apple characterized by greater crop diversity in
orchards in 34 provinces in 2006, using 115 small parcels of land with dynamically
electronic forecasting and warning stations changing weather. Available generic
(Atlamaz et al., 2007). simulation models need to be validated
with location-specific inputs for greater
accuracy. In developing countries, there is a
3.4 Conclusions strong need to establish agro-meteorological
networks for specific crop sectors with the
Pest monitoring is the foundation for the major objective of pest forecasting through
issue of early warnings, development and models and decision support systems.

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